Final Guineas Selection(s)

Curse you to Hades, Aiden O'Brien for NOT declaring Puerto Rico in the 2000 Guineas!!

Oh well, a couple it is then, at biggish odds for the Fillies Classic on Sunday.

Here's hoping they've watered the course fairly! :(

Twitter @RacingWhat

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:01

Hi folks, welcome to part two of this week's look at the two big classics. The 2000 guineas tomorrow, the 1000 guineas on Sunday. If you go back and check out the cast that I put out on Tuesday evening, which was a look at these races in advance of the declarations being known, you will notice that I was very sweet on two horses that are actually non-runners now in the 2000 guineas. Mr. O'Brien Aiden didn't decide to send over two horses that I fancied Puerto Rico and a bigger odds, Causeway. I was really hot on Puerto Rico. He's saving that probably for probably for the French guineas and probably for worse ground. It looks like it's gonna be good, good to firm tomorrow. Maybe the thing feels the horse does need soft ground. That's what his two wins last year came. But um, no matter Puerto Rico and Causeway were not declared. Listen to the cast, you'll see that I put a lot of emphasis on breeding and the dosage profiling, which I went through ad nauseam for this particular or both of these two races. Looking at the breeding and the dosage profiling as a way into the race with the runners that are left, of which there are now 15. I can't really get a grip on the race now. I can't really tell you anything that you don't know already from the form book. The breeding stats do not tell us an awful lot, or the dosage profiling will not tell us an awful lot. Whichever horse does win tomorrow will not hit all of the stats in the categories that I outlined for the last 26 winners of this particular race. Closest one is would be Pedra Dawn, but even he doesn't hit one of the classifications. All that I will say is that the gamble that is developing on Gestad, who looks like going off the favourite, he's currently trading at 10-3 with a sea of blue against him. Gestad has got an awful breeding profile or an osage awful dosage profile for this particular race. He's got a very low uh dosage total of six, his dosage index is way too high, his centre of distribution is way too high, also. So, Gestad on purely dosage profile looks an absolutely awful favourite. Watch him go out and win the race now doing hand springs. But that is pretty much all I can say about tomorrow's race. I'm not going to be betting in it, and if I am going to be going, I am suffering from the post effects of a knee operation yesterday. I may not end up going to the races at all, but one can but hope. If I do go, I will be leaving this race out and probably betting in the handicaps. Of more interest is the 1000 guineas on Sunday. Two horses that I fancied for this particular race, Mubassima and particularly Innismoore. Both have been declared, and both of which I am very, very sweet on. Let's have a quick look at their prices. Yep, same as they were on Tuesday when I put them up. Innismoor you can get 20 to 1 about, and there's been a bit of uh money for her. She is as low as 18 to 1 in places, so you can get 24 on Betfair for buttons, but generally she's sort of 20 to 1, 18 in a couple of places. Um, Mibisima uh 66 to 1 drifting. Um probably wait until off time to get a bigger price on Mabissima. But if you can find anywhere that's paying four places, most bookies have got Hway terms down to four places. Some may be doing each-way extra bets to play at to pay at a bigger odds, then both of those horses could be worth an each-way interest. So that's in is more at 21 sent there by David Menuzier and Mubissima sent there by Andrew Balding. Both of those look great on the breeding. If you go back and listen to the cast I put out on Thursday, you'll understand why I'm very sweet on them. That's my angle into those two. They've also got very sort of decent speed figures as well, which is something that not an awful lot of people pay attention to. Some do, but most don't. They've got more than acceptable speed figures. And if if they needed their run in the Nell Gwynn, they should come out of that better horses, fitter horses, and the definite players come the off on Sunday. I'll be backing them each way. So those are my two for the 1000 guineas. And it's more at around about the 20 to 1 mark, being backed as I speak. And Mubissima, who at 66 to 1, probably wait and see if that gets any bigger. Um, but 66 to 1 that'll be a nice tasty price. Or if it places, if you get each way extra pain down to six, seven places even, you may be able to get some sort of payback on Mubissima. Good luck if you follow me, good luck if you're gonna go uh racing this weekend. Hope you have a great old time. Weather looks sort of decent, there may be some uh rain coming through, but take a brolly just in case. But otherwise, have some great sport. Maybe see you on course at Newmarket tomorrow, depending on uh if Hopplon Cassidy here can uh can actually sort of get around the place without the aid of a wheelchair or walking stick. That's it for today. Me over and out, be lucky.