A Lookback at Ascot

             What ran well, what was unlucky, a few for the tracker, a couple of trainers for the Royal Meeting - and one to avoid like a French kiss at a wedding

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Transcript

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Hello, everybody, and welcome to this episode 19 of The Wrap, The What's Racing About Podcast. Nothing more than a quick look back at Royal Ascot. It's more sort of a memoir for yours truly, and anyone that happens to be listening to these casts, subscribe to these casts, and thanks very much indeed for doing so if you're one of that number. You will probably have your own ideas on what ran well and what is worth following from an Ascot. It's just to say that it is undoubtedly the best meeting of the year, and anything running well at the track or anything running unluckily must really be noted for the tracker for the rest of the season and probably for future seasons as well, in the case of the two-year-olds at least. So let's get into it then. I was lucky, I wasn't lucky enough. It was brilliant life choices and excellent decision making, but I was lucky enough to get to the event on the Tuesday, the 16th, the opening day, which for me is that is the best day of the five, and one that I always try and get to if I can. It starts off with obviously, you know, crackjack group races, bang, bang, bang, uh, first four races, a couple of decent long distance handicaps, and we get to see some of the best horses in training compete against each other in a real great opener to the whole of the five days. And as you'd expect, I've probably put more emphasis on the Tuesday and taking more notes on the Tuesday, having been there in person than in the other days. So the Coventry, Great Barrier Reef won really well. I think it's got excellent breeding. I did a quick sort of dosage analysis of all the horses in the race beforehand, and Great Barrier Reef was the one that hit all of the marks for me before the race was run once I knew who the runners were. Confucius, I always thought was too speedily bred, even for this six-furlong trip. I think it's a five-furlong horse if it's anything. But it was bred excellently. It beat the drawbus, which become more and more prominent over the five days. It beat A Day of Scarlet into second place. That horse actually sort of pumped the National Stakes form really well, more of which shortly. A Day of Scarlet, I think, ran in probably what up until Ascot was the best two-year-old maiden at the Craven meeting, won that well, and then won again at Ascot. So I liked A Day of Scarlet going to the National Stakes. As I say, more of that form shortly, but he held up the form of the National Stakes running second. Royal Heritage, probably the other horse to take out of the race on his second run. It impressed really well at Hamilton on its debut. It may have left this race behind at Hamilton. There's only some, I think, six or seven days between its debut at Hamilton and then this race. I mean, if ever there is a horse that is unexposed and is going to come on, it's Royal Heritage. Don't know if he's going to get close to the Great Barrel Reef if they team up again in the future, but it probably won't ever go off at 12 to 1 again, I would venture to suggest. King Charles stakes at 340. Jackajaro, a Jamie Spencer front runner. It's not the place for those sort of tactics at Ascot. You get very few horses that actually sort of make all and win here. I think it can still win when it has it is at a front-end gas track and where being on the pace is more vital than it is at a stiff track like Ascot. Mission Central won the race. I just think it just keeps getting spawny draws. This is the third favourable draw in a row that it's got. It's obviously classy. This was another group one victory for it at 14 to 1, but I don't know. I just I just think it just keeps getting the luck of the draw, basically, and maybe this is it, this is as far as it'll go. The St James's Palace Stakes was the race of the week for me, and immediately afterwards I felt it was up there with Grundy versus Bustino. Now, having sort of sat down and looked at the team tactics employed by Bally Doyle and Gestad, uh, who came second, maybe not, maybe I'm being a bit over the top, but you know, just look at those two horses, Guinea's winners, the pair of them, going hammer and tongs down the final two furlongs, not giving an inch either of them. You know, it does have resonance with Grundy and Bustino, the old times will talk about from back in the 70s, 80s. To me, it's worthy of at least comparison. And talk of New York in third place. I think that can improve again. Godolphin uh Charlie Appleby, uh they don't do well at, or Appleby doesn't do well at Royal Ascot for some reason. I think it's a horse that can move forward. I think Stad is always, you know, it's an Irish Guineas winner, so it's not bad. In fact, it's probably very, very good. It always seems to be a bit of a bridesmaid. There are too many second places in its CV for it to be really high class, and I would say that Bo Echo and probably talk of New York will improve past it if these three ever meet up again in the rest of the season, and where team tactics are not going to be allowed in such a blatant manner. The only other uh horse to take out of Thursday, or that I made a note on, was good old Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Wolferton Stakes. I backed him at 16 to 1. I just thought that this was his race, he would have come on for his run. I think it was uh was it the Heron Stakes? Can't remember, it was Sand Down uh on when I went to Sandown on that Thursday even a few weeks back. It would have come on for that race, it had better ground, it had fitness on its side, it's back at the correct sort of class. I know it's a group one winner in America, but over here, listed group three level, it can go a mile, it can go a mile four, and I always think it's each way material under those circumstances. I got 16 to 1 about it, it went off at 12 to 1, and and that's what you want to be backing and looking at with Wimbledon Hawkeye. He's not group one, probably not even group two material, but at this level, with race fitness on his side, it goes on really sort of decent ground. And if you can get a big price about him, which I did, he's always going to be each-way material, honest as the day is long. Yeah, well, good for me, aren't I clever? He came second and gave me a bit of a payback along with Great Barrier Reef on the day. Moving on to the Wednesday, two pretty easy eye catchers on the day, and those were oh, the first one of which was in the Duke of Cambridge Friendly Soul. He never got a run, he would have gone into most people's notebooks. He was the biggest eye catcher of the week, basically. A mile, a mile or two furlongs on any ground, in any class, pretty much. He's a must-bet horse. Sort of symptomatic of the week that John Gosden had. He only had the one winner in the week, and Friendly Soul was another one of his that probably got away. I'm not telling you much you don't know about it, would have gone into most people's notebooks after it's run in the Duke of Cambridge. And and also then, you know, you go into the hunt cook in Darlo, beaten by the draw bias. He was unlucky in the Cambridge uh on his penultimate run, uh, ran well at Newbury last time out, got just drawn out of it in the hunk cup, came third, led the far side group, and again would have gone into many people's notebooks just on the strength of him beating the drawbries. He was drawn eight, winner was drawn 33, second 23, fourth 32, 5th 22, 6th 24, Indalo, drawn eight, run much better than his finishing position indicated, and he's got to be a player in one of the big one mile handicaps for the rest of the season. Thursday, the Chesham. Nola Sol did everything wrong, but still won. Played up in the stalls, pulled like a train for the first half of the race. Would it have been Aix-le-Chapelle if Aix Le Chapelle had won? Who knows? There's a great old saying, the world's run by people that turn up, races are run by horses that run in them. Aix Le Chapelle played up in the stalls, was withdrawn, and this one, Nola Sol, did everything wrong, but still won, I think pretty convincingly in the end. Decent horse to go into battle with next season, given usual progress. And Mile Martu Furlongs at group level next year, yeah, you'd have to think he's gonna be a player. In the Ribblesdale, Gosden's Bad Week continues. Legacy Link. One thing that many people might have noticed, it ran without its usual nose band. It's an incident in the stalls, and the noseband had to be taken off, and that may have affected the way that it ran. It was hampered pretty badly. I think you've just got to forget this run and focus on the run where it came second in the Oaks. But you know, it's symptomatic of Gosden's bad week. Rit larger in the next race, where Trawleman came second. Would he have won with a prep race? Who knows? I tend to think he probably would have done, and I think he can reverse the form with Scandinavia in the big cup races throughout the rest of the season. But Scandinavia got this group one under his belt and won probably fair enough on the day, even though it was only by a head. But I think Trolleman can reverse that form over the rest of the season. Going into Friday, only one horse to talk about here, and that's in the last race, and it's symptomatic of well, well, let me talk about the horse first. It was in the Palace of Hollywood House handicap, the last race of the day, and it was the winner, Batchio, and it was uh drawn in stall 31, blasted away, and won. And that was the only time that I would say that those tactics are justifiable. But Wesley Ward, the trainer, American, sends over these horses with the same if you want to call it the Iron Maiden tactics. Running free, hit the gas, and here I go. That is their modus operandi, doesn't matter the jockey that's on board, these horses are all one-dimensional speedballs. Great for five furlong handicap that this horse won on Friday. It was drawn 31 right up against the stands rail where the drawbus was out for the whole week. Only one tactics to employ there, just blast up the rail, keep going, fair play for the tactics employed on that day. But all of Ward's horses employ always the same tactics, no matter what the race. And he has been doing this for years, and he's been getting away with it, and people back his horses because he comes over and says, This is the best horse I've ever had running. He's a joker, he's an absolute chance of this guy, and I would caution against backing any of his horses in any of the races at Ascot, which is not a front runner's track by and large. And let's go on to Saturday. The next actual race that was run at Ascot, the first race on Saturday, his horses, Fanshelf Beach, Ezina, and throughout the years all took each other on for the lead in the Norfolk Stakes. Just absolutely crettiness, stupid tactics. I just do not know how this guy gets the time of day. Same tactics, no matter what the opposition, no matter what the event, just blast off. Here we go. Set the race up nicely for Orthodox, who won with real authority in a fast time. I think Orthodox is still learning, and I think there's real sort of further improvement to go for him. I think that's a real horse to follow, probably the horse to follow out of all of the races for the rest of the season. I think this could be really sort of something special for the certainly for the rest of this season and going into next season. My punt in the race was where love lives on the back of impressive form at the national stakes. Well, if you go back and listen to the podcast that I did uh from Sandown Live that evening, he was my paddock pick and was the horse that I thought would be worth following given its victory in the national stakes, which was really well and up by Adeo Scarlet 2nd in the Coventry on the Tuesday. Wasn't to be, it came, I think, 12, something like that. I think it probably does need six furlongs now, where Love Lives. It needs to sort of grow into its frame a little bit more and probably be aimed at sort of lower level. It might not be a group pause, probably listed level though again. I you know, I think it can certainly go in at that level over six furlongs. Who knows? I'm not giving up on it. And over six furlongs on a track where sort of held up a little bit longer in a slightly easier class race. Yeah, I think where love lives will be a bet for me then. The only other horse to mention was in the final race, Queen Alexander Strakes. Illinois ran appallingly in the Coronation Cup, and I think a lot of people have written him off on the strength of that run. But Aiden O'Byon is nothing if not a master trainer. Never write off one of his horses, in fact, never write off what apparently is the second string. Just because Ryan Moore isn't on the horse doesn't mean he doesn't stand a chance of winning, as we saw on several occasions. Well, at several occasions in the past, on a couple of occasions last week at Royal Ascot. He won the 2024 Queen's Vars and was probably a pretty sort of worthy favourite as it goes for the Queen Alexander Stakes. I think most people have written it off on the back of it Paul Run in the Coronation Cup, but never write off an Aiden O'Brien horse. He is a master trainer. I know people say he's a bit of a factory terrainer and he burns out more decent horses than he has winners. That may be a fact, but on a race like this, which isn't the greatest of uh stakes races, I think Illinois was probably a worthy favourite, was overlooked by many, although it did go off as seven to four favourite, so you know most of the market eventually did cotton on to him. That's it in terms of the horses. Just a couple of trainers to note. Fozzie Stack, the trainer of Nola Sol, and Joseph O'Brien. I am going to make it my business to look at their horses that they send over to Royal Ascot in the future, next year and going forwards. Stack to me is similar to Mouse Morris at Cheltenham. He may only send one horse over, he may not send over any horses. If he does, they are decent quality horses, we saw with Nola Sol, and they're going to be primed for their life, and they are always worth following. Ditto at a sort of larger level, Joseph O'Brien. I read somewhere, I heard somewhere that him and his race planner Kevin Blake sit down in the first week in January and work backwards from Royal Ascot in terms of what horses are going to be going there, what the races are going to be running in, and the plotting of their race schedule up to Royal Ascot. And it shows they run well above what probably what the certainly what the market expectations say about them. And I just like his horses at Royal Ascot. So Fozzie Stack and Joseph O'Brien, when they send horses over from Ireland, pay attention. That's a mental slash verbal note to yours truly. And to you, my listeners, if you follow what I've been talking about in this well, whatever it was, it's been 10-15 minute rant. If you have, as I always say, thank you very much for showing up. It's great you sort of tune into these casts and give us feedback and you know just keep us going and keep me saying and keep my head in the game. And thanks very much for being there and uh for listening. That's me, done and dusted for this cast, over and out. Keep on rocking the free world and be lucky.