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Speaker 1: Hello everyone.

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As most of y'all already know,
I'm Stacey Hyden, I'm the

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president of Envision Financial
Planning and, while I do have a

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podcast, which I would love it
if you'd listen to it it's

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called Better Financial Health
in 15 Minutes or Less.

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Today I wanted this is directed
towards the clients of Envision

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, towards the clients of
Envision.

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The turmoil in the market that
started with the announcement of

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the Trump tariffs and that
really accelerated late last

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week today is Monday, april 7th,
as we're recording.

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This really was sort of a worst
case scenario.

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I think there was some thought
that there would be some tariffs

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, mostly against the countries
that charge tariffs to the US,

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but in fact, the tariffs were
more based on the trade

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imbalances between countries and
, as you can imagine, most trade

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imbalances come about because
that particular country either

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has the right resources meaning
natural resources that we don't

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have here in the US or because
their cost of production is

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lower.

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Think Vietnam is a very low
cost producer of a lot of the

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clothing and things like that
that we consume.

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So these tariffs and they also
hit a lot of our allies Japan,

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canada, mexico and I think that
that has really unsettled

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markets.

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I know, personally it's rattled
me, but when we think about

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scary markets, the first thing
we need to do is to take a step

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back, and what we really need is
a hug, because it's not any fun

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to open your app or look at an
investment statement and see

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that your account lost 10% in
two days.

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That is upsetting to anyone, no
matter what your account

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balance is, and especially if
you're nearing a milestone, such

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as getting ready to retire or
thinking about needing to pull a

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big withdrawal out.

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It is unsettling, to say the
least, but what we have to be

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careful of because it's human
nature.

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We see trends and we just
assume that they're going to

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keep on going in that direction.

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You know when markets were going
up and markets have really gone

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up pretty much unchecked since
the markets bottomed out in the

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financial crisis back in March
of 2009.

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We had a brief pullback in 2020
due to COVID, but that snapped

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back really really quick.

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And then we had a bad year in
2022, which was also unsettling

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because it hit bonds which were
supposed to be safe, and it also

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hit stocks pretty much all at
the same time, so that was

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upsetting as well.

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But we've had good years in
2023 and 2024.

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And I think part of what's gone
on is a lot of people's base

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case was we looked back to how
the economy did under the first

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Trump administration and you
know you've got to be careful

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when you assume.

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We assumed it would be
something similar and we'd have

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good markets, very business
friendly, but with the tariffs

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it has really upended everything
and it is scary and it has

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upset the markets and in the
short term markets react and I

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would say that oftentimes
markets overreact.

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So the markets have pulled back
fairly substantially in a very

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short period of time.

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We're almost to the market
close today and it's looking

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like they're going to continue
to pull back, but not at the

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magnitude they have been over
the last couple of days.

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But we have given back all the
gains in the stock market since

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April of 2024.

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So we've essentially all the
gains we've had over the last 12

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months.

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They're gone.

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But are they gone forever?

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I would argue that they're not,
that valuations are now make

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much more sense, both
domestically and on the

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international scale, and we've
we remain cautiously optimistic

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that this is not a forever
situation.

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I'm not even going to venture to
guess what goes on in the Trump

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administration's collective
mind as far as how they're going

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to implement this, but there
are a lot of countries that have

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said they're not going to do
retaliatory tariffs.

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I think it was announced that
50 different countries had

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reached out to the Trump
administration over the weekend

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to negotiate.

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So I think that there's going
to be some sort of resolution to

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this and I'm hopeful that it
will work out.

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Because if these tariffs are
implemented, it is going to

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raise the cost of living
dramatically for every American,

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because so much of what we buy
today, even if we're buying a

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quote-unquote American-made
product, so much of that has

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components that are not made
here.

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Because that's really been the
beauty of our supply chain is we

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can move production to a
country that can do it maybe

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cheaper and more efficiently
than we can, but we can use the

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American ingenuity to create a
better product the iPhone.

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The Wall Street Journal ran an
article over the weekend about

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just how much these tariffs
would impact the cost of an

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iPhone.

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It's almost $580, I think was
the amount that the Wall Street

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Journal had said for the
components.

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With the tariffs it would be
almost $900.

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Well, a company like Apple
doesn't get to be Apple by

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making a 20% profit margin.

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They get to be Apple by making
a 50% profit margin.

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So I think that we are going to
see some changes there, and

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I've said a lot and talked about
a lot to say that history shows

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us time and time again that
after big negative shocks so go

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back to 1987, the flash crash
that happened there, 2008, and

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into early 09, 2020, 2022, when
you get a year out from those

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events markets have recovered
and in hindsight, those times of

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that pullback has been a good
time to be an investor.

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So if you're still adding to
your portfolio, keep doing it.

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It's a great time to do it.

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If you're nervous because
you're getting ready to retire

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and you're looking at that, know
that you still have a 25-year

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time horizon.

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If there's something that you
need money for in the next six

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months year, it probably makes
sense to talk with your advisor

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about how to raise those funds
so that they're available.

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Your fixed income with interest
rates moving down, your fixed

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income is actually up in value,
so there's a way to raise some

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funds there that's not going to
impact your stocks.

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And also, if you are currently
receiving distributions due to,

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you know you're just taking
monthly distributions or you're

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subject to a required minimum
distribution this year know that

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we raised those funds back in
early February, before all this

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market mayhem.

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So that money is sitting in a
money market account earning

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over 4%.

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So taking that funds to support
your life, your regularly

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scheduled distributions, is not
going to harm your portfolio.

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If you don't need the money and
you're like, well, let.

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I think it's a buying
opportunity.

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We'd love to talk to you about
maybe redeploying some of that.

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The other side of it is that if
you wind up still taking it

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because you're prepared this
year and we've already raised

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the funds, so we send it to you.

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And if, for some crazy reason,
the markets are not recovered by

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early next year crazy reason
the markets are not recovered by

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early next year well then, that
buys you time.

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Those extra cash reserves buy
you time to get through these

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ugly times.

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But just remember we as humans,
the way we project, is we assume

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what has happened in the short
term and even maybe over a

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couple years.

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We expect those trends to
continue and whether that's

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markets going up or markets
going down, both scenarios are

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likely to change.

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So right now, markets are going
down and people are panicking

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because they expect them to
continue to go down.

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In reality, they're going to
come back up.

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The same thing was true when
markets were going up and we

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were cautioning you that hey and
you were saying that we were so

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smart we were also saying that
no, markets are going to come

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back down at some point, because
that's what markets do.

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I saw a video that showed the
ocean and it was a beautiful,

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calm day and it said this feels
great and normal.

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It's not normal.

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Waves and the tides go in and
out twice a day.

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So you have to know that these
cycles are going to happen and

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that's normal.

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We're prepared.

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We understand that it feels
terrible.

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My best advice is to separate
yourself from the noise of these

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scary markets.

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Go spend time with people you
love and, well, get outside.

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The sun's actually out today,
after you know thought we lived

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in Seattle yesterday and missed
it all day in the monsoon rains

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we've had.

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So try to disconnect, because
guess what?

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Worry has never improved
anything.

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If you look at the list of
things improved by worry,

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there's nothing on the list.

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All it does is raise your blood
pressure, cause you to feel

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poorly.

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So try I know this is hard try
not to worry about it.

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Let us worry about it, because
that's what we do and these

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opportunities in taxable
accounts is going to give us

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some ability to tax loss harvest
, which is going to save you on

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your taxes later.

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If we were trying to reduce
exposure to a sector or a stock

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that we couldn't, because the
capital gains would be too high.

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They're lower now, so we'll be
doing some of that, so there are

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advantages to this.

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But let us assume that worry
for you.

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You go out, live your life, be
with the people who give you joy

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and don't spend any more time
worrying.

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Thanks for tuning in and if you
have any issues or we can

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answer anything, please give us
a call.

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Thanks so much and have a
wonderful day.