Ep 195: East & South Division Win Totals

Tweener nation, we heard you! After a short break filled with both rest and recuperation as well as some technical difficulties; your favorite podcast hosts return to the air waves on a new platform to fire off a super sode! Two directions, four divisions, and half of the NFL is covered in this one. Football is so back. Please enjoy!

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:15

Hello, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome back to the Between Lines podcast. I am one of your three hosts, creator and founder of the King Report, Carver King, and joining me as always, my two good friends. I think we'll start with Jackson. Jackson, how are you doing on a uh picture perfect day here in uh Minneapolis, Minnesota?

SPEAKER_01 0:39

Doing well. Happy to be back on the podcast with you guys, man. Um, no mics tonight, no problem. No, no, kind of free balling. I don't really know what to do with my hands. Probably I know. If you see me doing weird stuff for our for our live video listeners, that's why I don't I don't know what to do. Justin, I know you've been rocking no mic for a little bit, so you do know your hands. Yeah. Do you have any tips?

SPEAKER_00 1:01

Yeah, I mean, it could be, I mean, if it if it feels right to go Ricky Bobby style kind of throughout the throughout the episode, put them up. Um, I guess one nice thing about no mic is I'm actually able to, as we're discussing, actually look things up on my computer. Obviously, you guys are sharing a computer, uh, so not as easy, but that's been a positive. Um, but yeah, I think you just gotta do what feels right for you. I think that's what makes us um elite level podcasters, I would say, is we kind of just go with the flow. We riff, um, and our hands do what they want to do. Not in a bad way, though. Oh, whoa, whoa.

SPEAKER_02 1:37

Oh um thank you for joining us on the 195th episode. Take two. I think this we've had a few, I guess, phantom episodes or episodes that never have made it to to air. Yeah. Um they made it to tape, but not to make it to tape, but not to air.

SPEAKER_01 1:53

Well, actually, this one didn't actually fully make it to tape.

SPEAKER_02 1:56

But our conversion rate is pretty high. You know, we've done this 195 times. I'd say, you know, 195 out of, you know, we probably missed four times at this point. Um, but yeah, so last week we did the East. The we previewed, we started our preview uh series uh divisions win totals like we've always done, and we did the Eastern divisions, but unfortunately we had a little snafu with uh zoom.com and uh yeah, the episode ended up not getting posted. So fuck soon. What that what you get on this episode is a super packed episode.

SPEAKER_01 2:32

What do you mean by the super mega loaded episode?

SPEAKER_02 2:36

Yes, thanks for required. Um we will be doing both the AFC East, NFC East, as well as both the Southern divisions, the AFC and the NFC. As on this episode tonight, we also have a special, obviously not surprised, but you know, a special change up to our programming. Justin is actually joining us for the uh Southern division, something he has never actually done in our history of this podcast. He's always been gone for this episode. This has always been a two-man crew uh episode.

SPEAKER_01 3:08

This is this is actually an awesome opportunity because since we don't have mics, I can play some background noise. That is got my air horn there ready.

SPEAKER_02 3:15

Could have got your air horn ready. Um, so yeah, congrats to Justin. We're we're happy to have you for this episode. Are you nervous?

SPEAKER_00 3:25

Uh I mean, the the division, especially on the NFC side uh these last few years, it felt as almost I wasn't missing anything. Um, honestly, for four years in a row. When did Brady pay play for them? 2021. So Brady played for them eight months before we started the podcast when he won the Super Bowl, I believe. Uh so in this in the BTL era, I feel as if the NFC South has been the laughing stock of the NFC. Um and the AFC South is the AFC South as well.

SPEAKER_01 3:58

Uh yeah, I I hear what you're saying with the lack of competitiveness, but I think sometimes it's where you can find the most margin, though. So I feel like you're missing. That is true. Being able to really because sometimes you can diagnose like really shitty teams.

SPEAKER_00 4:08

And I mean, I I think it is gonna be tough to lock. I think it's a tough division to lock.

SPEAKER_01 4:13

The highest win total in the South in the AFC South is nine and a half, and the highest in the NFC South is eight and a half. So I mean, it's not very good.

SPEAKER_00 4:22

I'd be interested to listen back to your guys' previous four NFC South episodes. Um, and I guess year one we probably didn't do them because we started when the Gophers started. Uh so three or four, however many it's been. I'd be interested to see if how many of your locks from the South divisions were on unders versus overs.

SPEAKER_01 4:44

I had the Texans over last year and the Saints under. And Carver had the Falcons under and the Jaguars over. Although locked in. Okay. Maybe this is from two years ago, or maybe I have this put in wrong. I mean the Jaguars won 13 inches. I know, but it's put it's this is yeah, okay. I didn't track them last year. Because this is from two years ago. Because I was like, the Jaguars here are four and thirteen. I I I knew they were 13 and 4 this year. So that's why I was like, why is this red? Also, the Saints didn't go under last year. That's also why I was confused by that. They didn't go under? They were terrible. Well, it was six and a half. They won I think they or maybe they didn't. I don't know.

SPEAKER_00 5:25

I think they might have.

SPEAKER_03 5:26

Did they?

SPEAKER_00 5:27

Tyler Shu, or however Shuck. Shuck? However, his name is pronounced.

SPEAKER_02 5:32

Yeah, however it's Shug Shuck. We love it though. Um episode 195, though. Uh so a repeat of that, like I said. So uh Miles Garrett episode is kind of what I came up with. Richard Dent, Bears legend, won the uh won the uh part of the 85 Bears. Yep. Um trying to think if you have any other eight or 95s off the top of your head. Richard Dent was a good one. Yeah. Miles Garrett, I mean, probably first ballot Hall of Famer. He set the sack record.

SPEAKER_00 5:59

Yeah, I mean, he's probably the best the best defensive player of all time. Um you never, I guess he'll he'll be a first ballot Hall of Famer. I was gonna say you never know with the voters, especially the old crowd, but that's usually more when it comes to a unanimous. Like, I know how hard it is for baseball players to get a 100%.

SPEAKER_01 6:19

Miles Garrett has a gambling allegation come out in like two years. Does he make the Hall of Fame? Jared Allen was not a first ballot hall of ever.

SPEAKER_00 6:26

I imagine Miles Garrett is better than Jared Allen. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I imagine Miles Garrett will be. If he had a gambling that's like that's the NFL in a nutshell, a gambling allegation would affect his Hall of Fame chances if he like murdered his wife. Um, he'd be he'd be good. He'd be fine. Yeah, I think he'd be fine. Like wait a year. Yeah, yeah. We'll give him a year and then we'll wait a year and then we'll forget.

SPEAKER_02 6:51

Um, but I suppose we can just get into it. Obviously, we have a ton to get into tonight uh regarding these divisional breakdowns. So I think we start with the East, we pick up where we left off, where is from the beginning, obviously, but what we would have recorded last week. So I say we get into it.

SPEAKER_01 7:09

Let's do it.

SPEAKER_02 7:10

We'll do a similar format as we've done in previous years where I will give the win totals. Um, I will give their offensive line and defensive front rankings. I'm using Warren Sharp's 2026 ranking. Shout out Warren Sharp. Uh, and also using his strength of schedule rankings for this year as well. All these are 2026 stats. So we'll get a nice understanding of uh the trench play as well as strength of schedule, because obviously those are factors in a team success or a lack thereof. And Jackson will also be providing a breakdown of departures and arrivals, uh players on the rosters for these different teams, who's left, who's gone, and coaching changes, I believe, as well. So we'll get a good preview of the teams, a good 30,000-level view of the teams, and then uh we'll give you our picks and then we'll lock it up at the end of each division. Yep. I got a full three pages of notes.

SPEAKER_01 8:04

Let's get into it. Perfect.

SPEAKER_02 8:05

Uh we'll start off with the Philadelphia Eagles. We'll start with the highest team in the East, NFC East. Um they're sitting at a 10 and a half win clip. Um, their offensive line rank comes in at second, their defensive front rank comes in at fifth. They're the 27th easiest straight of schedule, according to our friend Warren Sharp.

SPEAKER_01 8:28

Um, key additions for the Eagles are in in the booth, adding Sean Mannion at offensive coordinator. And through the draft, adding Mikhail Lemon, Eli Stowers, Markel Brown, and Tariq Woolin, just some notable names there. Oh, right, no, sorry. Not that's not in the draft. Um, but then uh in the offseason through free agency and such, adding Tariq Woolen, Hollywood Brown, Dontavian Wicks, Jonathan Grenard, uh Arnold Abite, Damian Pierce, Elijah Mitchell in the backfield, a little uh extra competition there for Tank. Um, and then AJ Epinesa, Iowa Legend, and Marcus Epps. Key Departures, uh, AJ Brown, Brandon Graham, Sidney Brown, Reed Blankenship is what I have down here. So the total is 10 and a half. Um I'm gonna lean slightly under. I I I'm guessing around 10. I just I'm not sure if the offense is fixed by bringing in Sean Mannion. Um and I think that the offense looked a little disjointed at times last year. And you you could call it AJ Brown. Um, you could call it um Kevin Petulo. Um or Kevin Petulo. Kevin Petulo, I believe. Okay. There you go. I was on it. Well, some close enough. Um I don't know if that was uh AJ Brown and Kevin problem. I I I I think it might just be a little higher up. And so I I I think the issue is, and I think we talked about this last time, but um the floor is so high with this team um because of Vic Fangio on the defensive side and just all the talent that they have in the front seven that I think I think they'll hold up. Like that they're there's they're too talented on that side of the ball to bottom out. But um I I lean I lean 10 wins. Justin, do you want to go?

SPEAKER_00 10:11

Yeah, I think you it I always say it's tough to do these when we're re-recording. Um, I think I'm sticking with what I had last time. Um, I would lean the under on this as well. Uh, or did I go over? I want to stick with whatever I think you went under. You went under. Okay. I thought so. I think you would unlock the entire way. We'll see. We'll see. Yeah, I'm leaving on this one. Um I'm gonna lean under on this. Obviously, we have a little more news. They're dealing with a few tight hamstrings in camp, sometimes with the smaller receivers, that's a little bit worrisome. But it is just camp. So I'm I'm hoping Lemon and Smith are just kind of uh trying to do their best to get back healthy. I think the defense is going to be one of the better defenses in the league. That's always the case with the Eagles. It's just a question of can that offense perform? I am uh I think Saquon is going to be good until he's not, but one of these next couple years is going to be the year he is not, and it could very well be this year. Um so yeah, I mostly worried about their passing attack. I think Jalen Hurts is still a good quarterback, but uh that passing attack heavily evolved around AJ Brown, just like it did in Tennessee, and we've seen how they've been since AJ Brown left Tennessee. So I'm uh I think 10 wins is still a lot in the NFL, especially in this division. I think I'm higher on the division. If this was last year, two years ago, I they'd probably be sitting around 11 and a half win total. Uh, but I'll go under on this one.

SPEAKER_01 11:42

Yeah, it's interesting thinking about that because when we did this originally uh the exercise, we were looking at the East. So it's kind of the AFC East is a little more top heavy. Um, but then having prepped the South divisions this week, um, both divisions that I'm lower on, um, it's interesting now looking back at the East notes and being like, I'm higher on like all these teams than I am on like probably any team in the NFC South. Absolutely.

SPEAKER_02 12:06

Yeah. Um, I'm taking the over on this one. Um, I I understand the critiques of the Eagles. I'm I'm not blind to those. Um, but I like you said, I mean, the defense is good, ranks out well, and there's a plenty of talent on this offense. You lose AJ Brown, who you know still had a productive year, um, but you know, obviously butted heads with the philosophy, the offensive philosophy. Um and I feel like him leaving, not that he's a bad player, but just could be a sub, you know, addition by subtraction. And I like, you know, I obviously like Mikhail Lemon or Mikhail Lemon, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goddard. They still have plenty of weapons there. So um, like Jackson said, they brought in some legs there in the running back room. Saquon should be fresher this season as well. So um when I look at that too, and then the kind of their easier schedule, I think of them kind of like an Eagles where make it even maybe lose a guy or two, and I think that they should be able to kind of sleep up to at least 11 wins. So I'll take the over. If it didn't happen, I would be happy. Um, but uh I feel like the Eagles will probably be another solid team this year. I believe the Eagles have made the playoffs nine in the last 10 years. So the Eagles have kind of become a uh I don't know, they may be a dynasty. I'm not sure if a dynasty is a perfect way to say it, but they've gone on a really run here, and I think that probably continues this year. Yep. Um we'll move on to the Dallas Cowboys, and I want to make sure I think I had the wrong numbers last time, so if I'm wrong on these ones, just call me out. I think I might have changed it. I don't remember. You were wrong on Dallas. It's nine and a half. Okay. Thank you. Um we have the Dallas Cowboys coming in at minus nine and a half. Um they come in with the 17th ranked offensive line, the 17th ranked defensive front, or the seventh ranked defensive front, I apologize. 17th ranked offensive line, seventh ranked defensive front, and they come in with the 23rd easiest schedule in the NFL this year. So a lot to go down. Obviously, everybody's talking about Dallas. I saw uh an announcle off our awful announcing article, I believe last week. Every single day, the uh first take boys discussed if the cowboys can make the playoffs. So we're in peak cowboy hysteria over there in Bristol. Why don't we dive into it? Yeah, I love it.

SPEAKER_01 14:23

I mean, it's it's August, so that means it's peak cowboys time. Um but key additions. Um, Christian Parker, uh, the defensive coordinator, kind of addition by subtraction with Matty Berflus leaving there. Um, just I mean, he has to be better. Um, they were by far and away. I remember looking the worst defense in the NFL. I think they were 32nd in the run and 31st in the pass. Or third, I think they're also 32nd in the pass as well. So they they they were yardage-wise, the worst defense by a good margin in the NFL. Um, so hopefully that will improve. Um, and I think it will after adding um Caleb, uh, yeah, Caleb Downs, Malachi Lawrence, uh, Jay Sean Barnum in the draft, LT Overton as well. Um, and then in the offseason, they also picked up MVS, uh, Go for Legend Tyler Johnson, Jalen Thompson, Rashawn Gary, uh, and Kobe Durant. Um key departures include Logan Wilson, Miles Sanders, and Dante Fowler. So it seems like they retooled pretty well. I like their additions versus departures. It seems like they're on the uh upward trend. And all that is to say, I'm on the under nine and a half. Um, I'm on the under nine and a half, and this is kind of dumb, but sometimes that's what gambling is, is you gotta find your angles. Uh, for the last seven years, Dak Prescott has gone every other year injured or not injured. Um, and so we are coming into a year where Dak played all the games last year, and that would mean that with this being the eighth year, um, that this trend continues, and Dak misses games. Yeah. And if Dak misses games, I think this team struggles again.

SPEAKER_02 15:54

Very fair. Um, I like the over here. Uh, obviously, Dakert, I agree with you. Um, it would mean it'd be, you know, actually, I don't know. It is tough. I think I actually flipped this when I did this last time because of the nine and a half. I'll actually go with the under here. I do think that they'll be competitive. Um, I think the defense will improve. I believe last year they had the 32nd ranked defense, and the year before that they had the 31st. So they've been in the pit here for a little bit. Um, they invested heavily on the defensive side. We'll see where Christian Parker has, obviously up his sleeve. But when you see those numbers, it makes more a lot of sense that they traded Micah Parsons. It's like, well, you know, one of the sum of our parts. Um but um I like the offense still. And maybe I'm drinking the Kool-Aid a little bit. I I think they'll be a competitive team. Do I think they get the 10 wins? I'll say no. Um, but uh I think I think the Cowboys will be uh uh fighting for a playoff spot. They're personally tackled to.

SPEAKER_00 16:53

I'm gonna go with the over here. Um I think in an unlike Jackson said, I'm kind of banking on Dak being healthy. Uh hopefully, kind of age, he learns to play smarter, just stay healthy. And it's not like his injuries are dumb. That one time his leg just snapped. But uh, I'm hoping also gets a slight bounce back from C D with not taking too much away from George Pickens. Uh, Javante Williams needs to stay healthy. Obviously, he's had a hard time doing that over the course of his career, but last year had a huge season. I saw some, this could just be the camp hype in me, but saw some clips of DeMario Overshone. He's back. He looked good uh in practice. And defensively, it's always a coin toss with the Cowboys, but I think they're similar to the Bengals of they're gonna score 30 points, can they hold their opponents to 28? Uh, whereas the Bengals were holding their opponents to 35. So um I like how the Cowboys I'm liking where they're at. Uh I it's tough to say if they're the strongest in this division. Uh if they're if their numbers were flipped with the Eagles, I'd easily go over on the Eagles, under on the Cowboys. I'm more confident than the Eagles, but just uh just a hedge, I'll go over here on the Cowboys.

SPEAKER_02 18:09

Fair, fair. We'll on to the New York football Giants, who sit at a total of seven and a half over plus one ten under minus one thirty. Uh their offensive line offensive line rank comes in at 20 at their defensive front, 22nd. Strength of schedule. They have the 10th hardest, which is an improvement from last year. If you remember, they have the hardest strength of schedule.

SPEAKER_01 18:32

I did not know that. Um but making a lot of headlines here in the offseason. The Giants hired John Harbaugh at head coach and bringing in another uh former Bears head coach into the booth, Matt Nagy, at the OC position. Um, Mike High. Um that definitely won't work out poorly. Um the uh rookies they added um had an eventful draft, taking Arvell Reese and Francis Malinoa um or Maligoa. Uh that was both in the uh in the high first round, top two top 15 picks there. Um Colton Hood, Malachi Fields. Um they also added Isaiah Likely, Daniel Fallele, former gopher, uh Lucas Patrick, Shremaine Edmonds, Darnell Mooney, Odell Beckham Jr., Juju Smith Schuster, kind of a who's who in that wide receiver room. Um oh Braxton Berrios, too. Forgot about him. Um Greg Newsome, and of course, best for last, Jameis Winston, uh all-time vibes guy. They brought in a lot of big names. They did. Um the key departures were Dexter Lawrence, uh Bobby O'Karake, and Wandell Robinson. So kind of some uh more key leaders there. And that's what I think is interesting to note about the additions and departures of this team is that Harbaugh seems to have brought in some of his guys and some different veteran presences that I think he matches what he's trying to do. And they shipped out kind of some of the older, uh, more legacy giants like with uh O'Karake and Lawrence. Uh I guess Wandell Robinson too. But I I consider those guys to be more a part of like the culture that was um the former Giants. And so I think they're trying to move in a different direction. Um and because of that, I'm I'm leaning the over. I I think um I think this team can win eight games. And really, it's just because I I think that the the attitude, like the um the attitude around the the uh organization, like around the team facility, need to change a little bit. Um and I I think that this is a step in the right direction. Um kind of getting after the old uh the Luke, the Luke Murray adage. I don't know if you guys saw that over the weekend. Did not. He um wanted to fire everything and anything that was tied to the old Boston College regime when he came in, including their uh game play-by-play announcers.

SPEAKER_02 20:41

Damn.

SPEAKER_01 20:42

That's hard. Let's call cleaning house. Yeah, yeah. Uh one guy had been there, I think the play-by-play guy had been there for 13 years and the color guy for nine. And yeah, he was just like, we we need anything attached to this stink out of here. So very fair. Justin?

SPEAKER_00 20:56

Yeah, I'm gonna go with the over here. I'm liking, I I like what I saw from Jackson Dart last year. I think it'll be much better with Malik Neighbors back. He seems to be uh even more on track than when we first recorded this to actually start the season on the on the roster and actually playing. Um yeah, the wide receiver room is funny. Who knows? Maybe Odell Beckham Jr. has his resurgence. Um, but I think just having a better coach, uh a much better coach, some would say, and having Scataboe back. Um he's kind of crazy, so who knows how long he'll stay healthy. But they got a good running back room. They're deep at running back, good receivers, good defensive line. I think they have a a high upside defensive line. Uh, but yeah, I think they're a fun team to watch in this division. I think, oh, I didn't start off by saying I do think this is going to be an awesome division to watch. Like these this is the type of division where every single time one of their games is on, it's gonna be one I'm gonna have on the TV. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 21:57

One note I think you made off pod, but I'll I'll Make it for you here too. Um, you mentioned that Arvell Reese might already be getting fitted for his his gold jacket, and I I'm I'm there with you. Like I think Arvell Reese is gonna be a stud. Yeah, but there's a Sonny Styles, my bad.

SPEAKER_00 22:11

Sonny Styles. Arvell Reese, though, I do think is gonna be a stud.

SPEAKER_01 22:14

I did this the last time, too.

SPEAKER_00 22:16

Like, and I'm when on last episode I talked about uh Thibodeau. You never know. I think he does have upside. Brian Burns is a stud. Um not as much, he's not as much of a game wrecker as Carolina, but I don't know. And who was their oh no, they didn't draft downs. That was Cowboys. Correct?

SPEAKER_02 22:40

Cowboys like Downs, right?

SPEAKER_00 22:41

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. Yeah, not the Giants. Um but yeah, I think this team is I think Howerbao will make their defense. And I I always hate saying that name. Um I think the defense will just take a step up strictly because he's there, and they have talent on that side of the ball. Yeah, I agree.

SPEAKER_02 23:02

Yeah, I'm selling hard. Uh I'm taking the under here. Um, never been a Jackson Dart fan in the NFL. Obviously, he's a former Trojan. Fight on, uh, got pushed out when they hired Lincoln and Bride and Caleb. Um I know he's fantasy relevant and I get that. And I know he he did show some flashes, especially finishing around the goal line, which which is nice. But I mean, the kid was in the Blue Ten a ton. Um, I just feel like this could be a transition year for Jarbaugh, Jim Harbaugh, or John Harbaugh, my bad. John. Um as he kind of establishes a culture. I I I think it could take more than one year here. Um and we'll see. I mean, uh they have a good young, you know, they have a good pass rush. Um so the defense should be solid, but we'll see what that offensive line looks like, especially with Jackson Dart scrambling around so much. So if he goes down, I think what Jameis Winston, I think they have Andy Dalton too. No, they think the Eagles have Andy Dalton. Um they have Jameis Winston as a backup who can get things done. Um, but you remember he also had uh Malik Neighbors calling out uh John Harbaugh's first draft after uh the draft they had this year, the Giants. So I uh we'll see. Um we'll see. I think there's still some culture building that John Harbaugh will need to get done this year, and I think it could result in them uh winning less than eight games. So I'll take the under here with the New York football giants.

SPEAKER_01 24:25

Uh just uh quick before I move on to respond to your um um year to reset um kind of I guess uh statement there. Um in his first year with the Baltimore Ravens, he took them from five and eleven to eleven and five. Long time ago. It was a long time ago. It was uh you want to know what's wild, although wild nugget from that season. Their bye week was week two.

SPEAKER_02 24:47

I was gonna say I wonder, is that because is that maybe due to like the Saints? I don't know, what year is that, 2006?

unknown 24:55

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 24:55

Is that Katrina? Uh it's 2008, so no.

SPEAKER_02 24:59

Financial crash, maybe they had to delete the season.

SPEAKER_01 25:04

That's just wild that there's a bye-week week two. Like, yeah, you just cannot get away with that. That's diabolical, honestly.

SPEAKER_02 25:09

Um, but we'll move on to the commanders, we'll wrap this division up. Uh they said at seven and a half, even at over or even at the overnumbers are bad. They said at seven and a half over under, both sit at 110, so they're even there. And they have the inverse of the Giants. Their offensive line ranked is 22nd, and their defensive front is 20th. 14th hardest strength is scheduled for the football team.

SPEAKER_01 25:35

Yeah. For the football team, we have uh offensive coordinator David Blau coming in, uh replacing Cliff Kingsbury. Yep, Purdue legend. Um, and then we have uh for the rookies, future Hall of Famer Sonny Styles, um, Antonio Williams, Katron Allen, former gopher, eighth and cally Akmanis. Three gophers. Lot of former gophers here.

SPEAKER_02 25:55

A lot of gophers at the NFL rosters, man.

SPEAKER_01 25:57

They also add uh Odafa Owe, uh Otega Owe's brother. Yep. Um, Nick Cross, uh Amik Robinson, Shiga Conquwo, uh Rashad White, uh Jeremy Ford, uh Kayla Von Chase on Razul Douglas, um, and the key departures were Marshawn Lattimore, Bobby Wagner, Von Miller, Debo Samuel, uh Chris Rodriguez, and Zach Ertz. And uh addition that I missed because this hadn't happened yet. Um Stefan Diggs also added to the roster.

SPEAKER_02 26:25

Yes, that is that is news since I'm reported. Yes, yes, yes, yes.

SPEAKER_01 26:28

So I need to add that to the notes. Good for Stefan. Um this is kind of what I had in my notes, though, for this team. Um, and also for the division. So you'll notice I'm on the over here for the football team. I'm on the over for the two teams in the bottom, on the under for the two teams at the top, because I think the NFC Beast is back this year. I think all four of these teams are going to be in it to win it. And I think we're gonna have an absolute slog through one through four throughout the division, honestly. So I'm on the over for the football team. And I think you give Dan Quinn a year to kind of patch this defense and also just a lot let a lot of some of these older guys walk. Like they tried to patch the defense with Lattimore, Bobby Wagner, Von Miller, um, just all these guys that I mean they tried their damnedest, but then they were hearsed and just a little slow out of the block. Like different, different issues with different guys, right? But at the end of the day, still just issues. And I think what they were able to bring in and draft um is gonna be really important for this team. And I just I don't I don't really see it as like they lost a lot. I really just see that they upgraded across the board. And then the biggest addition is it really just comes down to Jaden Daniels actually being healthy this season, I think. So um I'm on the over, and this is my locked in division football team over seven and a half wins.

SPEAKER_02 27:39

Um, yeah, uh, this is one I'll switch up. I switched up uh on the pod last time. I'm gonna stay with it. I had originally going with the under here, but I'm going to go with the over. Let's go. Uh a lot of the same reasons. I think that they kind of cleaned up but in the right way. I think I believe last year they were the oldest team in the NFL. Um, I believe they're more in the middle of the pack now. So they got younger, um, which is always a good thing. I do believe Dan Quinn is a good coach. Um, I mean, look at the Giants. Oh, we were just talking about looking at the Cowboys' defense since he left. They've been dog shit. Um, so he is a good coach, got made it to the Super Bowl. So I think he'll get the ship steady this year. Um, obviously, you know, if Jaden Daniels, who I think in a bigger, I think a thing people need to account for more, Christian Derisau is a player like this last year. When guys get hurt late in a year and then they come back at the start of the next season, they're usually not a hundred percent, like they're just hurt. Like Christian Derisaw played hurt last year. Jaden Daniels just played hurt last year from the get-go. So he finally entered the offseason healthy, which is a big deal, as opposed to recovering from surgery. Um, so I think he'll he'll be better. And I think he had another like fluke elbow injury, which I kept him out. Um, so I I see improvement. Hopefully they can run the ball. That's my only kind of my big question, I guess, with them. But I'll take the over.

SPEAKER_00 29:01

Yeah, I'm gonna go for the over on Washington, just like Carver's just said. Uh Jaden Daniels was never healthy. Hopefully, he can get back to how he was looking as a rookie. Uh, good for the most part, a good but old wide receiver room. Obviously, Antonio Williams out there. Uh, it is interesting. I mean, if Josh Gordon was in a picture with weed, NFL would send him to Alcatraz, but Stefan Diggs in a video with cocaine and nothing comes of it. Uh, just thought I'd throw that out there. Um on a boat, too. So you know that's cocaine in the bag.

SPEAKER_01 29:35

But I don't think cocaine.

SPEAKER_02 29:39

What type of boat rides are you getting on? What wasn't a Tussi? It was it was pink. Well, it's like fucking, yeah, I don't know.

SPEAKER_00 29:45

It could be pink cocaine, which is like Molly and Coke mixed. No, I was gonna say that's what that's that is what led to the death of uh Liam Payne, I believe.

SPEAKER_02 29:57

Okay, that's what it was, yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 30:00

Not Liam Payne's death. Yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 30:02

Uh but yeah, it is what it is. Shout out Josh Gordon, uh, NFL legend. But uh I do think I almost did the same thing as last time. I almost said the word I'm not supposed to. Uh our football team are the commanders that some people refer to him as. Uh I think they're gonna go over here. I think this is the team that makes the division fun. If they can, if Jaden Daniels can look like he looked two years ago, then this is a primetime division, uh, one that we're gonna be enjoying watching in December. And like you said, Sonny Styles, uh, he is Von Miller-esque of different play styles. So I'll compare him to an inside linebacker. He's like Patrick Willis, where you watch him play football, and it's just a the uh this must have been easy for him his entire life. That is how freakish he looks out there. Uh and it's not often is it super fun to watch an inside linebacker play football. I think he's gonna be one of those guys, and I like it. Quick side note before ending on the NFC Beast. Uh Jackson has mentioned a lot of gophers. So, any of you PJ haters out there, I don't remember this many gophers being in the NFL before him. So just just enjoy it while you can. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 31:17

I mean, I I will say uh Ethan Kallick man is former gopher is little talking to good for good for good for PJ. All right, what are you guys locking up? I I'm locking up the football team here.

SPEAKER_02 31:29

Whew. I uh I'm gonna lock up the Eagles. That's what I last I'm gonna say with it. Locking up the Eagles over. Over. Okay.

SPEAKER_00 31:35

Did I do football team last time lock?

SPEAKER_02 31:39

I don't know. Hey man, play your hand. Yeah, do whatever you would do whatever you're feeling.

SPEAKER_00 31:43

I'm thinking over on that. Is it what give me the number one more time? Seven and a half. It's a close division. Yeah, I think they'll go over that. Just need Jaden Daniels' knees to stay healthy.

SPEAKER_02 31:55

Let's go. Over by October, baby. We will go to the AFC least. JK, it's the AFC beast. They have AFC representatives from the Super Bowl last year of the New England Patriots, but they did not have the highest win total. Actually, I think that's what I had jacked up to. Let me say, uh yeah, they have 10 and a half. They have tied for the highest win total. But we'll start with the Buffalo Bills. They are sitting at 10.5 over minus 125, under plus 105. Their offensive line ranking is, let me just double check this. I want to make sure I'm giving correct information. Their offensive line rankings is the third best, according to Warren Sharp. And their defense my bad and their front seven ranking is the 13th. And they have the 18th easiest schedule going into the year. Jackson.

SPEAKER_01 32:55

Yeah, the Bills um promoted Joe Brady to head coach in uh a sort of a coup fashion. Yeah, it was a coup. Housting um housting Sean McDermott. Um they brought in Jim Leonard as the DC um, I guess Wisconsin great. Jim Leonard. Yeah, Wisconsin legend. Um rookies they added were TJ Parker off the edge from Clemson, uh Davison Agbenozan, um, Bradley Chubb. Shout out me on the uh pronunciation there. Uh and uh Lloyd, oh shoot, how did I how did I phrase this? Because then I okay. These were early in my notes days, so I didn't I didn't have my cadence down um because I'm like, now I'm just listing non-rookies. Um but uh Lloyd Cushenberry, Austin Corbett, um, a slew of defensing backs, including uh CJ Garden Johnson, Geno Stone, D. Alford. Um, and then they also added DJ Moore. Um, key departures being Sean McDermott and Teron Johnson is all I have. So I think my notes are a little sketchier here on these earlier ones. So um just bear with me if I'm missing some people. Um they had the best rushing offense in 2025, and that's really I think what helped the Bills sustain so much success was their ability to control the ball. Uh, because I played in a lot of close games, it felt like last year. Um prior to, I guess, the end of their season, they kind of blew, they kind of routed some. Um their ball control was was really effective. Um, and I'm interested to see how that carries over because that seems like more of a tenet of a defensive head coach like Sean McDermott was, where they were trying to maximize their defensive output by controlling the ball on offense. And I'm interested to see if that carries over with the Joe Brady um regime. It's just a promotion, though. Yeah, it's just a promotion, but like ideologically, they might be saying different things, prepping for games week to week and how they're attacking it, right? Like I when I think of Joe Brady, I think of because I think everybody, when they think of Joe Brady, they think of the LSU team in 2019 that he was kind of famously the offensive coordinator for. And that team was did not play slow. And they they were really um letting it rip. So I could see this team letting it rip a little bit more, um, maybe to their detriment, maybe to their um, maybe to their game. But I I leaned the under at 10 and a half here, kind of the same way. Um, same way, but different that that I leaned the under for um the Eagles. It probably hits a 10. But my my like um apprehension here um comes more from the defense and less from the the uh the offense like it was for the Eagles. But I just believe in Josh Allen to find their way to be significantly above 500. So um 10 and a half, lean under. Justin, do you want to go?

SPEAKER_00 35:30

Yeah, this was going into things like when the when I first saw the numbers, it was one of those. I thought this was gonna be a division I could sum up in 30 seconds, saying take the two overs on top and take the two unders on the bottom. Uh, but this uh this bill schedule is very rough. Uh they could they have uh uh three in my opinion, in my opinion, really tough games in the first five weeks. The other two games to start the season are uh toss-ups. The b Houston and Houston and Detroit are both teams that can like if Detroit plays like they did two years ago, all of a sudden that's another tough game. Uh but Houston, Detroit, Chargers, Patriots, Rams to start, uh, that sucks for them. And then even if you're thinking they'll do the usual Bills backdoor, it once it starts snowing, they look better. Then they have the Chiefs, Patriots, Packers, Bears, Broncos later in the season. So I was looking at it as this should be an easy over because they get four, in my opinion, free wins. Uh but uh 10 and a half with the schedule that they have. I'm gonna lean the under on this one. I don't this one wouldn't be my lock because I could go either way on over under. Um actually I'm gonna flip it to over. I just think Josh Allen's gonna Josh Allen, but I still do think this schedule, I if this was 11 and a half, it would be a lock. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 36:55

Well, when I was talking about it, I kind of was getting to the point that I might lead over. I've been I just think 10 and a half is a really good number. So I'm I'm kind of right on it. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 37:02

This is a it's 10 and a half. They if they go 10, whatever and tie, if they go 10, 6, and 1, that would make sense to me in this division, uh, or with their schedule.

SPEAKER_01 37:12

It's like what was the year that you you called the uh Carver said and I said they're gonna push.

SPEAKER_00 37:20

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Because it was uh I thought it wasn't it like the Cardinals 7 or something?

SPEAKER_01 37:25

Yeah. He's like, I'm calling it right now, it's a push. Yeah, I said they're gonna push at seven games. I was like, if this is a flat 10, I'd I'd call the push. Or a flat 11, excuse me. I'd call the push.

SPEAKER_00 37:35

Um Carver was close too. It was came down to the last game. I mean, someone screwed up.

SPEAKER_02 37:41

Yeah. Um, I'm taking the over. I lean over. I'm not super confident this won't be my lock. So um, but I mean, I hate the bot team bottoms are the two teams at the bottom of this division, so which summarizes a lot of it. I mean, Josh Allen, like you said, Josh Allen. I think what they did last year is repeatable. Like I think they're gonna be able to get James Cook the ball. Um, Ray Davis even kind of showed some flashes at times. Um, so maybe we see him a little bit more, or I'm not sure quite on their entire depth of the backfield there, but um so I do imagine that they'll get the ball out a little bit more, but I think a lot of that is gonna be like Dalton Kincaid, honestly. Um, so you know, middle of the field, off-the-run game type stuff. I look a lot of what they did last year. So um we'll see. Um questions about the defense. And last year, and this kind of bleeds into the Patriots, and I do like the Patriots. Um, but I do think that the Patriots snuck up on the Bills in a way that they didn't expect, which is probably why Sean McDermott got fired um in a way. Obviously, the Patriots end up winning the division.

SPEAKER_01 38:47

Yeah, I think they split their regular season then.

SPEAKER_02 38:50

They did. Um, so we'll see. Maybe they get that game back this year and it looks a lot different and feels a lot different for the Bills. Um, they bring in DJ Moore, a player I like. I know he's kind of inconsistent, but I think he'll be like a Stephon Diggs when they brought him in, where he'll be good when they need him. They're not gonna rely on him like a ton, but he'll they'll be good when he needs him. He'll be good when they need him. So I lean over. Um again, this is another one where maybe I'm just uh uh a lover of chaos, but if it didn't go over, I'd be very happy. But I'm gonna I'm gonna lean to the over here at 10 and a half with the Bills. I'm gonna move on to the New England Patriots, who said at minus 10 and a half. I have over under 10 and a half. Okay. Um 10 and a half, that's fine. I mean, just even odds out a little bit then. Um offensive line rank of 15, defensive front rank of 11th. They have the 11th hardly scheduled if playing that first place schedule this year. Obviously, coming off of a Super Bowl appearance.

SPEAKER_01 39:47

Yeah. Uh in the draft, they added Caleb Lomu, uh, Gabe Akis, and Eli Raridan is who I have down here. My guy. Yeah, my guy. Baby Gronk. Um, and in the offseason, they also added AJ Brown, Romeo Dobbs, Elijah Vera Tucker, uh, Draymond Jones, and Kevin Bayard. Um, Kita Pargers with Stefan Diggs, Garrett Bradbury, Calebon Chase on. Um I'm I have under on the Patriots here at 10 and a half, but as I'm kind of talking it through, I do kind of like them. I don't know. I I it's hard because I prepped this so long ago that I'm like, I don't have exactly all of my thoughts clear on it. But um I just I'm looking at the additions and I feel like they they definitely added more than they than they lost, it it felt like, um, at least to me on paper. Um like I I think AJ Brown is is AJ Brown is an upgrade over Stephon Diggs, Romeo Dubbs is an upgrade over whoever, like whoever they had in that in that three spot if they even choose to use him. Um I I like, I mean, I just think uh any Vrabel team just fundamentally has a high floor. And so I think this is another team with just a really high floor. Um, but I have down the under here, so I guess I'm riding with the under.

SPEAKER_02 41:00

I lean over, even though, again, not very confident in this one. I had it at over nine and a half originally, but I'll take the 10 and a half still. Actually, I'm gonna go under. I'll have to find an I'll I'm gonna go under here. I think they I think they will have a little bit of regression. I think this variable stuff will bleed into the season. Diggs was pretty good for him. Obviously, I know that they brought in other wide receivers that you know can can compliment for that. Rondre Stevenson still has game left, but I think maybe the question is uh Trevion Henderson, who's shown flashes, but I've read a little bit, has struggled a little bit out of the gate in camp just with his pass protection. So it's small things like that that you know make me wonder. And um, I mean Brable, who I think is a good coach, don't get me wrong, had Derrick Henry, and that's a pretty consistent offensive tool and weapon to to rely on. So at 10 and a half, I lean under. I think they'll still be a very competitive team. I think they'll be a playoff team, probably. But like I said about the Bills, I think the Bills are ready. I think the Bills are ready for them, and I think the Bills are ready to win this division. So it could be tough for the Patriots to uh could be tough to the pay for the Patriots to go over here. I don't like the other two teams in this division, but I mean they have to win some games, and we know that some divisional games obviously can get a little funky. So I will go with I'll lean under here for the New England Patriots.

SPEAKER_00 42:29

Yeah, I'm going to just like the Bills, I'm gonna lean the over on this one. Uh Patriots also do have a tough schedule. That's just how it is in the NFL. But my mindset, similar to the Bills, I it's tough to rank these teams when I'm thinking of it as in my mind, they have to get seven and a half wins out of 13 games. Uh, I truly do think of the Jets and Dolphins, even though they're divisional teams, as four free wins for each of those teams. That's how low I am on those two franchises. And uh and I I don't know if it was Carver. I know Carver's super high on Geno Smith. Um yeah, Carver is a huge Geno Smith guy. So maybe I'm wrong. There's gotta be maybe you're thinking they have a shot at the division out in uh out of MetLife, but yeah, I'm gonna go over here. There is a lot. Do I lean under the the vape the Vrabel stuff keeps coming back into my mind? Uh it was on it was on in our lives uh non-stop for two weeks, and for some reason it really has fallen off.

SPEAKER_02 43:38

But that's it was a great story in the offseason, I think.

SPEAKER_00 43:41

Uh yeah, absolutely. Um yeah. Uh and I do think they have an issue with uh Trevana Henderson. I think Trevian Henderson's really good. I think in 31 other on 31 other teams, take out the ones with the B. Johns and the Gibbs and stuff. Most teams. Teams would start Trevion Henderson, but when you play for Mike Vrabel, the best attribute you can have as a running back is being able to pass block and be reliable for that. So that's where there's some Vrabel things that he's stubborn with that I think do hold him back a little bit. But AJ Brown is a huge addition. Man, this is a tough one. It is tough. I'm gonna lean over and I'm gonna have confidence that that this is just a super top heavy division and those two teams fight for the number one draft pick at the bottom. But if this is the case of people get a little bit more Drake May tape and he has kind of a junior year struggle, this is their third year, his third year, right?

SPEAKER_02 44:40

Yeah, a junior year and junker.

SPEAKER_00 44:42

Yeah, then that would make sense, but I don't know. I'm gonna lean over still. Fair.

SPEAKER_02 44:51

I'll move on to the Jets. They're sitting at five and a half and uh over one plus one fifteen under 140. Offensive line rank comes out at 19th, and their defensive front comes in at 31st. Oof. Train to schedule is the fourth hardest. That gives you any context. Oh Jesus. Do you want to talk to me about what they did? My Jets can't catch a break, dude.

SPEAKER_01 45:14

But Jets. JETS Jets, Jets, Jets. My Jets can't catch a break. I didn't know that about the fourth hardest schedule. That makes me feel bad about this because I'm on the over. Oh wow. It's the only one that I the only one that I felt really good about, honestly.

SPEAKER_02 45:26

Do you know who's coming to the team in that?

SPEAKER_01 45:28

Yeah. Um in the draft. So I I love their draft. They drafted uh David Bailey, Kenyon Sadiq, Omar Cooper Jr., D'Angelo Pons, just a lot of good finds there. But the issue is that they added Geno Smith. I know that's Carver's guy, not necessarily my guy. Wow. Um Micah Fitzpatrick, Tavandre Sweat, um, Deshaun Wright, DeMario Davis, uh Kingsley. Ngbarra. Um, but Enigbarre. Yeah, I didn't I did I don't think I nailed that one.

SPEAKER_02 45:56

Yeah, I think it's Enigbar.

SPEAKER_01 45:57

Yeah, that's probably better. Um, Departures are uh my guy, JF1, Justin Fields, and uh Jermaine Johnson is who I have on here. And yeah, I mean, I think this team was super void of talent last year, just like top to bottom, and they added a lot of talent. Um, I I can't argue that I just I'm worried about the quarterback spot, but at five and a half wins, I'm comfortable enough with just the baseline of talent that's on this team to take the over. I I think this team can win six games, and it might be in spite of themselves because I don't know if they want to win six games, but they they might they might just do it anyway.

SPEAKER_02 46:30

Yeah. Um, Justin, do you want to go?

SPEAKER_00 46:34

Yeah. Uh looking at their schedule, that is a beast of a schedule. Uh, they start at Tennessee, then they got Green Bay, Detroit, Chicago. Don't call me crazy, but I think that's an 0-4 start. If you got, I'm thinking Tennessee might shock people. So that's it. They're not beating the Packers, the Lions, and the Bears. That is a tough stretch. Uh Browns, I have every single team beating them when I've gone through every schedule. But then Patriots, they got the Chiefs and Bills, Chargers, uh, Denver on there, Patriots again, the Vikings, the Bills to end the season. This is just I think the reason I'm gonna go under on the Jets, and it could be a lock candidate, is uh they have a very tough schedule. By the by, I think for once in Garrett Wilson's career, they're going to think maybe we should try to bottom out here. Um because once teams start once there's they start to see, I still think there's gonna be that big those big three quarterbacks. Uh uh I think once those teams that need quarterbacks start seeing where everyone is in the league, that's when you're gonna start to see people being like, okay, we don't want to fall out of that tier of those top three guys, assuming they all stay in the draft. Obviously, there's a lot of money in college sports now. Um yeah. But yeah, I think the Jets would be very well suited. But if Carver's guy, if his my guy ends up being a stud and takes them uh to the promised land, which would be, in this case, six wins, I I'll bite that bullet and I'll say I was wrong. I'll put my hand up. So I'm gonna go under here.

SPEAKER_02 48:18

Um, I'm going to go under here. Um, there's always really bad teams the NFL. Obviously, our my guy Aaron Glenn is on the hot seat. There in New York seems like he is on baited breath. Um, so I imagine there'll be a coaching change there. Could be a quarterback change, in which the case where my guy, Geno Smith, would get benched for Justin's guy, Kate Klubnick, out of Clemson. Love the the Debo thing, the or the Dabo, you know, religion thing. Uh but uh the Jets, I I do agree with you, J or Jackson, uh, and in general. Like I I was doing a deep deeper dive on the Jets yesterday. They kind of hit on the offensive line, too, um, which is kind of an underrated thing. Obviously, kind of represents there in that 19th ranking, which is actually pretty solid, I think. Um, but their last few draft picks at O-line have accumulated to a pretty good unit. Um, we'll see what happens on the defense, but now they have a bunch of first-round picks because of this Os Gardiner trade as well. Um, with that being said, they are set up for the future. And for that reason, I think they want to get as good of a pick as they can. I think the Jets are gonna be one of many teams trying to get the best pick they can this season. I don't want to say outright tanking. We'll see how the college football season goes, but pick me here for the Jets.

SPEAKER_01 49:36

I don't know how you go out and you get Geno Smith and then you draft Cade Klubnick and you think that you're gonna you're gonna try to win football games.

SPEAKER_02 49:44

That's what I'm saying. I mean, it's it's tough. It's it's the problem is the brain. And you know, guys are on the internet, you know, guys.

SPEAKER_01 49:51

NFL players. Can we run it back though quick? Like to finish the point. Um, the Seattle Seahawks had Geno Smith and he left and they won the Super Bowl. Um the Oakland Raiders, or sorry, the Las Vegas Raiders then acquired Geno Smith and they got the first overall pick.

SPEAKER_02 50:05

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 50:05

So it seems like everywhere that he goes.

SPEAKER_02 50:08

That's a tough resume blemish.

SPEAKER_01 50:09

Yes, like that that that's really tough. So the team that you were on, like no like real major changes besides the quarterback spot, and then they actually and they lose receivers too, by the way. They let DK go, like they they like they kind of cut bait across the board, and then they actually won the Super Bowl. Um, and then the team that you went to goes on like to get the first overall pick. Like it's kind of reverse LeBron. It's like the opposite of what he did.

SPEAKER_02 50:32

Yeah, it is Lamar LeBron. Um maybe he's trying to bring that match back to the Jets. The thing is, guys are on social media too, so they know what like Geno's like reputation is like amongst people.

SPEAKER_01 50:45

The last time he was in that locker room, he got punched in the face. That is true. And that thing was not good.

SPEAKER_00 50:50

And I I'll I'll say I don't want to be hating on Geno Smith. I think I I always respect those guys that can be in the league 15 years and accept the role wherever they are. But Geno Smith is for him to have a success, I think he's built for a team like a if Patrick Mahomes got hurt and the Chiefs needed to win a couple games just to make the playoffs, that's who he's built for. He's not built for to make this New York Jets team much better. Um, but I guess it's your guy. But Jackson is saying he is six wins. I guess that is much better for the Jets, I guess.

SPEAKER_02 51:27

It is. Um, all right, we'll move on to the Dolphins. We'll get to this one kind of quickly. Um, they're sitting at four and a half, they're uh over-unders even at 110.

SPEAKER_01 51:36

I have some light breaking news. What on a draft or on a um on a sports book that will not sponsor us, so I will not use its name. I'm seeing three and a half. Wow. For the Dolphins? I've seen three and a half. That's the uh suggested line. Now it's minus 130, but then the under, if you go to four and a half, is like minus 150. So I think we got to play the three and a half.

SPEAKER_02 51:58

I think we have to play the three and a half. Three and a half, which is nuts.

SPEAKER_01 52:02

Um, so I was like, sorry for the late breaking news because when I did this the first time, I had the four and a half, and that's what it was. But it has now moved down to three and a half. I think we have to play the three and a half.

SPEAKER_02 52:12

Um line ranking 29th, defensive line front rank of 27th. They have the seventh hardest strength of schedule in the league. Uh Jackson, you want to go into departures?

SPEAKER_01 52:22

Um, yeah, it's really a lot of departures here. Um, for the Dolphins, I'll do the departures first, honestly, because it's it's Tua, it's Tyreek, it's Jalen Waddell, Bradley Chubb, Minka Fitzpatrick, Liam Eichenberg, James Daniels, all gone. Um, I guess also head coach, um, what's his name? Uh something McDaniel.

SPEAKER_02 52:41

Uh Mike McDaniel.

SPEAKER_01 52:42

Mike McDaniel, there you go. Mike McDaniel, the head coach, is gone. Uh, replacing him as head coach Jeff Hafley um with uh offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick. Um in the draft, they added Kaden Proctor, Chris Johnson, Chris Bell, Caleb Douglas, um, in that tight end whose name I can't pronounce, so I'm not gonna try. Um, as well as um Malik Willis at the quarterback spot, signed him to a three-year. Nice little, nice little bag for the kid. Uh, David Ojabo, Clelen Farrell, um known uh known successful NFL player. Oh, yeah. Uh Jamari Saylor and Tutu Atwell. Um and it's interesting because I leaned the over at four and a half, but I think I'm just on the over at three and a half.

SPEAKER_02 53:21

Interesting.

SPEAKER_01 53:21

I think I'm on the over at three and a half. Fair. I think it's gonna be well. I think it's gonna be my lock for division. Are you serious? I'm I'm gonna lock up the Dolphins to win four games this year. Um it's gonna be fun.

SPEAKER_02 53:34

All right. Over by October. I'm taking the under. I'm gonna stick with it. I have the under at four and a half. This team is not good. I actually think they are hurt by firing Michael McDaniel. Think about the Dolphins last year as they went on a little run. Michael McDaniel's run scheme is still really good. And you know, Devon HM was still effective. They had they could make plays, kind of. Two also made a lot of mistakes for him, which I'm not sure will change this year at the with the quarterback position, but at least Millie Willis plays a more conservative style of game. But I'm taking the under three and a half. I think they'll I think they'll go three and fourteen.

SPEAKER_01 54:13

Oh god, dude. There's the chance I'm looking at their schedule right now. Yeah. If January 10th, they go to New England. That could be the saddest game you've ever seen. Because like the there's the chance that the Patriots are already like not playing for anything, and the Dolphins are playing to for draft position, and it's snowy, it's cold, it's January 10th in Foxboro, Massachusetts, and it's miserable. But you know what? That could be a fun game.

SPEAKER_02 54:45

Three teams a season win less than five games a year. About actually, I just I had it pulled up.

SPEAKER_00 54:51

But three games a year.

SPEAKER_02 54:53

Last year, three teams didn't win more than three teams in one more than three. No, that says under five games. Under five games, my bad. See how many won under Cal. See how many won under four. Last year nobody did that. Yep. That's what I'm banking on. So one or two, but it does happen. The years, it's happened every year before that. Don't look at that one. Multiple teams. Oh, the bears are out. Don't don't don't look at that. 2022. No, don't marvelous year.

SPEAKER_00 55:19

The problem with this is looking at their schedule, the one win that I'd usually I do the a loss win or a half if I'm unsure. Depending on how Las Vegas is, I would, I would probably give them a I want to ride with Malik Willis once, give them a win there. And then it's not even like, oh, these sh it's football, a half game. 15 of those games or they should lose for sure. Like this schedule's crazy. Yeah. You said seventh hardest schedule in the league. Okay.

SPEAKER_01 55:54

Um, we'll move on. Um, do they beat an NFC North team? Yeah, because they got the whole NFC North on there. I don't think so. I guess we gotta lock in in here.

SPEAKER_02 56:03

You locked in the Jets. I'll lock No, I'm locking in the Dolphins. Oh, yeah, you locked in the Dolphins. It's gonna be a ride, dude. I'll lock in the Jets. I'll lock in Jets under.

SPEAKER_00 56:11

I'm gonna lock Dolphins under.

SPEAKER_02 56:12

Wow.

SPEAKER_00 56:13

Disrespectful. That's that's disrespectful. That's hella disrespectful. We're gonna win three games, dude. Two games. That's insane. How long before Devon A-chan has a tight cap and is out for the year? Um but not like not declared out, just a he's gonna be out for a few weeks.

SPEAKER_01 56:31

I gotta find I gotta find their first cold game. Bardiuship. Um, November 22nd, uh, they play Buffalo. I think by then the hamster gonna be tight.

SPEAKER_00 56:39

There you go.

SPEAKER_02 56:40

All right, let's move on quickly over to the AFC South. Welcome, Justin. Your first time doing it? Yeah. Um, let's get right into it. Uh let's start with the Houston Texans. Or at least we're doing the AFC and NFC stuff. I'll start with the Houston Texans. Uh sitting at nine and a half wins as their total. Overs at minus 110, unders at minus 110. Their offensive line rank comes in at 31st, but their defensive front's the first. So strength schedule sets at 22nd in the NFL. Second, 20, yeah, 22nd.

SPEAKER_01 57:13

Yeah, I love that you touched on that because my my big note for this team was the uh the offensive line was an issue uh in both the run and the pass game, and they clearly made an effort to address that. Um their additions were uh Cleland Rutledge, Caden McDonald, Marlon Klein. Um, and then they also added uh Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller, Foster Moreau, David Montgomery, Reed Blancenship, Logan Hall, and Dominique Robinson. Oh, and Tank Dell's back. So that's uh That is true. That's a huge for CJ strip. Plus Xavier Hutchinson down the end up track. Yep. Iowa State. Um true. I mean, that's an Iowa State receiver room there. Yeah. They might have a little like a mutiny and just like take Tank Dell out again. Um, but the departures were Titus Howard, Juice Scruggs, great name, uh, Mario Edwards, Christian Kirk, uh, Christian Harris. Um, and yeah, I'm on I'm on the over for the Texans at nine and a half. Um, just because I think that they they seem to self-scout pretty well on what their issues were. I mean, their issues were on the uh the offensive side of the ball at the line of scrimmage. They're awesome on the defensive side of the ball. Um, and I think they'll continue to be uh a force on the defensive side of the ball. And hopefully they can establish just more of a run game and CJ Shroud just is a little less ass. But I mean, they went over this last year, so I think that they I think they can repeat, especially in a weaker division.

SPEAKER_02 58:26

Yeah, I agree. Um they were turning all 11 starters on defense, which I thought was pretty impressive. Um last year they had the second scoring defense only by 2.2. Um, so essentially the first tied for first. Um and their first in yards allowed. Um, they were a really stingy all-around defense. Brought in David Montgomery, who I think gives him a solid running back run game. Um, obviously, CJ Stroud makes a lot of bone-headed decisions. I think if you give David Montgomery the ball a little bit more, you you limit that. And uh, yeah, I'll take the over. I think the the I think Houston should be solid. I think their offensive line has improved enough. I don't think it's good, but it's better than it was.

SPEAKER_00 59:02

Yeah, I'll take the over here. I think obviously big D'Amico Ryan's guy. Their defenses, they've got some studs on defense. Will Anderson now the highest paid defense player in football? Or am I off on that? No, he's way too young to get an extension. I don't think he's been paid yet. I thought he was, but yeah, he's way too young. Um, yeah, I think that defense is solid. Nico Collins, I think, is gonna have a bounce back year, and it's not even Nico Collins, it's just CJ Stroud needs to have a bounce back year. The year his first rookie season when he was good, his big thing was not turning the ball over, and then starting with the Vikings game in 2024, all of a sudden he just started turning it over a lot. And who knows? Maybe it does have to do with Tank Dell. Maybe he likes that small guy who can just get open, sit in the zones. Um, because he looked great. Him and Tank Dell looked like a dynamic duo when they were together.

SPEAKER_01 59:55

Um so yeah, I don't think I think it's that he he big brothered uh uh Cale Wilson or Cale Williams, excuse me, get my Caleb's confused that CJ Stroud did? Yeah, I I think that's when it went sideways for him is when he big broad Cale Williams. That's true.

SPEAKER_00 1:00:10

Yeah, I mean, and CJ Stroud is kind of a goofy dude. I mean, everyone saw his outfit last week. That was the funniest video I've seen. You would have thought it was 2006 um when that video was posted. But yeah, I think the Texans will be a solid team. Uh, but I'm as you'll see, I'm gonna do something similar to what I did in the NFC East. Okay.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:34

I'm going to oh, let's move on to the Jags. My bad. Um, the Jags are sitting at eight and a half wins. Um and their over-unders are plus one ten, unders minus one thirty. Offensive line ranked is 17th, defensive line ranked is 15th. My bad, defensive front. That's just lying. And their strength schedule comes in at the 18th. Hardest?

SPEAKER_01 1:00:56

Yeah. Easiest.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:57

Hardest.

SPEAKER_01 1:00:58

Interesting note about the Jags. Um, their win total is eight and a half and they won 13 games last year. But as I'm gonna kind of talk to you guys on paper, I don't really see how they got better. Um, they had no first-round picks this year, uh, but yet they took 10 selections. Um that includes uh Nate Brokacher, um, Albert Regis, uh Emmanuel Pagan, uh I almost said Emmanuel Pagan. Emmanuel Pregnan. Um, and they also added Jalen Husky, um, Chris Rodriguez, Dane Jackson, Quentin Bohanna, whoever that is. Um, and they lost uh Travis uh Achan, uh Devin Lloyd, Greg Newsome, Andy Wingard, and Johnny Munt. So um this team just feels like it's stagnant to me. And that's why I'm leaning on the under, which is nuts because again, they won 13 games last year, but I just something just tells me the jag's my jag, and that I I got I'm leaning on the under eight and a half. Justin.

SPEAKER_00 1:01:55

Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna go over here. Eight and a half. I like Liam Cohn. I think this team more so I think they'll do decent in the division. Uh and spoiler, I'm low on the Colts. Um, and just want to throw it out there. Will Anderson did sign a three-year $150 million extension. Oh, uh I knew I knew listener Isaac Johnson would be uh texting me as soon as he heard that that I um but yeah, the Jags, I think Brian Thomas Jr., that's someone who I'm looking to have a big bounce back. I thought he looked great as a rookie. I think similar to Jaden Daniels, he was uh hurt last year and just kind of nagging injuries the entire time. Uh Parker Washington had a great year. It is crazy that his last name is pronounced A-chan, but he is gone. I think Tootin will take a step up uh in his absence. Um but yeah, I think this is gonna be what'd you say?

SPEAKER_01 1:02:55

We're high on Tootin on this podcast.

SPEAKER_00 1:02:56

Yeah. Tootin will be good. And I'm sure Travis Hunter, once they figure out what to do with him, uh they should probably just let him play defense, but they'll try some offensive packages with him. And who knows? I think he could also be good. So this team overall, Jacoby Myers, great vet in the wide receiver room. Trevor Lawrence is just a coin toss to me. I know he he got that bag a couple years ago and he they won 13 games, but that's a very weird 13-win team. Um has there ever been a 13-win team that has a franchise quarterback that's over under was five wins less the next year? Like, has that ever happened? Yeah, no.

SPEAKER_01 1:03:38

I mean, there wasn't like I mean, they just nothing changed.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:43

Yeah. Um, I get that, and I I did have concerns about that. I ain't leaning over, and it is weird that they didn't do anything, but they kind of batten the hatches down. They re-signed Travon Walker, they obviously made Travis Hunter a permanent cornerback. Um uh, you know, second year of uh Liam Cohen being there, who's a coach I like. Um, so I I think they just kind of figured, you know, run with what we got. Trevor Lawrence, 15 touchdown passes, only one interception his last six games last year, so he ended on a hot streak. I think they're just kind of banking with what they got. Is it a strategy, which we'll see if it works, but I think at eight and a half, I think you almost have to take the over here. Yeah, it feels dangerous as well. You know what I mean? Um, so I'll take the over. Uh, we'll go on to the Colts sitting at seven and a half wins over at plus one fifteen, under at 140. O-line comes in at 10th, 10th ranked offensive line, defensive front comes in at 25th ranked. Strength of schedule. They have the ninth hardest strength of schedule for the indie Colts. Interesting.

SPEAKER_01 1:04:46

Yeah, um, this is kind of uh uh Shane Steichen's prove it year, I would imagine, uh, in year four. Um he's 25 and 26 so far. He's went eight and nine, nine and eight, eight and nine kind of deal. Um people forget though, the Colts were eight and two before Daniel Jones went down last year. Then they then they lost out. Um so they also had no first-round picks this year from the Sauce Gardner trade. Um, but they selected CJ Allen, AJ Halsey, um, Bryce Bocher, uh yeah, Bryce Becher. Is it? I think that's how you pronounce it, and Caden Curry. Um they also had an Arden Key, Jonathan Owens, aka Jonathan Biles, um, and uh Kobe Wooden. Uh departures are Michael Pittman, Zaire Franklin, Quiddy Pay, uh, Braden Smith, and Nick Cross. Um, I lean the under here at seven and a half, uh, very slightly though. I mean, I did I counted this out to about seven and a half. Uh if they can return to the format they had at the beginning of last year. I mean, I think this team can definitely hit their over. Um, I just I again I worry that this team was pretty mediocre last year and also ended very poorly. And I'm not sure what Shane Steichen's standing is. I'm I'm not plugged in enough to really um understand what the trajectory and like what the vibe on him is, but if the vibe's bad, this team's going under. Um Because they're they're they're kind of they're teetering. So um I'm on the under.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:05

Also on the under. Um I hate to say, but yeah. I mean, Chris Ballard, hot seat as well, potentially their GM. Um and Dana Jones, I mean he's coming back from an Achilles injury, he's not the most athletic guy in the world. So I imagine that I don't think that'll be the easiest recovery. He's fast. He is, he is. He he's like a gazelle. Um and then you also have uh Alan Pierce who's on the pup. So um they lost Michael Pittman Jr., obviously you're relying on Al Pierce to essentially kind of fell into that one roll, and um he hasn't practiced yet, so I think that's something to be concerned about. So only in the under ear. Could be the blown-up ear, maybe for the Colts.

SPEAKER_00 1:06:42

I know they're never that bad, but yeah, I think as I said, I'm low on the Colts. Steichen's just a w an interesting coach to me. Uh, not saying he's bad, I just think he's in a weird spot. He seems like he's on more of that Mike McDaniel path of get me back to being an OC where I can enjoy life. And DJ, interesting to see how he comes back from the Achilles. Seems like a lot of people are doing fine nowadays, but he does move more than a Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. Uh, I do totally agree with the gazelle take. He does run like that. I remember a run back in like 2020 against the Giants or against the Eagles or something. But yeah, this team they went all in for sauce at a weird time. I think that's a weird move in hindsight. Uh Jonathan Taylor is getting older when he's healthy. He's still probably the best pure runner of the football. Um, but just like Saquon, just like Christian McCaffrey, you can fall off at any time. Most likely, I don't think he's gonna fall off because of talent, but an injury can happen at any time, and at this age, it's tough to recover from. Uh, I feel like I, of all people, need to throw Anthony Richardson's name out there. Who knows? In my mind, it's still a camp battle. Um, in the coach's mind, apparently, it's Daniel Jones for sure. But I I hope to see Anthony Richardson this year, and that for that I can also hope for the under, which I already thought was ha would happen. Um, but an under is a win-win, because then maybe we see Anthony Richardson for two, three games. But yeah, I do agree, Carver. They I think they their defense is way too good to be super bad. Like where they're and they don't have their pick this year. So it's I don't know. They're in a weird spot. The Colts are in a very interesting spot. Before we move on, who are their wide receivers besides Josh Downs?

SPEAKER_01 1:08:39

Um Alec Pierce signed Alec Pierce to a big deal.

SPEAKER_02 1:08:42

They have another one. I don't have the depth startup. I don't have it either.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:47

I guess Josh Downs and Tyler Warren then are their receiving options. Yeah. And Alec Pierce, dude. Alec Pierce got the bag. I thought he's hurt though.

SPEAKER_01 1:08:57

He's gonna play. I mean, he's yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:08:59

Well, I thought his injury was worse.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:01

No. No. That's not the end of unless he's something new happens.

SPEAKER_02 1:09:04

He should return to practice somewhat sometime soon. Um he didn't have surgery. Uh all right, we'll wrap it up with the Tennessee Titans. They're sitting at six and a half wins over minus 140, under plus 115. Offensive line comes in at the 30th rank, defensive front, 22nd. And they have the 16th hardest strength to schedule.

SPEAKER_01 1:09:23

Yeah. Um, the Titans added Bob Salah, aka Mo Sala, um, and uh offensive coordinator Brian Dable. Um in the draft, they added Carnell Tate, uh, Keldrick Falk, Anthony Hill, uh Fernando Cremano, Pat Coogan. Um, they also added uh John Franklin Myers, Elante Taylor, and some extra DB depth that I didn't all write down here. Um Departures, I wrote down as some washed vets on both the line, both sides of the lines of scrimmage, um, which were also just really bad last year. Um, I love the coaching change um and I love the new group coming in. The Titans are my lock for the over at six and a half. I'm buying all the Cam Ward stock, I think, with Carnell Tate and this uh refurbished group of receivers. Um they'll be pretty solid. I guess I didn't have Wandell Robinson uh in here, but Wandell Robinson's on the team now, if I'm not mistaken. Calvin Wrigley's still there. Um I I just I think uh I think they have some weapons, and I I'm excited to see what the Titans uh what the Titans turn out to be.

SPEAKER_02 1:10:23

So give me all the Titans. I will go with the under here. I like the Titans. Don't get me wrong, but I feel like this is unfortunately a six-win team. Um I don't think they'll get to that seventh win. Um I like and I think they're going the right way. Robert Saul, let's not get wrong. Like, I mean, I saw he had a ton of success in in New York. I get it's the Jets. Is it the Jets thing or is it a Ronald's thing? I agree, I I know, but it's not like Varabel, where Vrabel had a good track record with uh a lackluster franchise. Um I I think they're making the right steps, but I think it might be one more year. We'll see though. I I it's a big rear for Cam Ward, because if they're bad, they could take a quarterback potentially. So we'll see with that. Um I hope he is good. I think he is good, but um I'm gonna go. I think this is a six-win team. I I I think that that half number, I'm sorry, it scares me off. I think this team can go to the playoffs. I don't think so. Okay. I don't think the defense I mean the defense isn't bad, but I mean, like I said, the offensive line is bad. I think the defense is gonna be really good with Bob Sala. I think so too, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough to win seven games, which means you're gonna miss the playoffs. I I think I think they're gonna win 10 games. I would I hope they do. I I like the Titans. I I sip the Titan cool. I'm gonna probably bet them all in time, but I don't think they're gonna I think they're gonna be a six-win team. Where are you at, Jarr? You gotta settle this.

SPEAKER_00 1:11:50

We we are yet to see uh just because Carver mentioned Vrabel in his success in Tennessee, we are yet to see Vrabel in a world where he's not getting insider information that he can hold his blackmail over other coaches and owners. That's a good point. Um, so I'll have to see how things play out this year. No pillow talk, no no blackmail that he has. But on my on my spreadsheet, I just have lock over vibes for the Titans. Um that's how I'm feeling with the Titans this year. I think the vibe this is a vibes team. I mean when there's when there's a vibes team, you have to ride with that team. Um so this is just an over to me. People are gonna say, look at their schedule, they're young. Cam Ward, people always talk about oh, Cam Ward's underlying statistics are historically bad. No, he's one of those guys where I say, watch the tape, uh, watch them sling that rock.

SPEAKER_01 1:12:47

The team was historically bad. I don't think Cam Ward was historically bad.

SPEAKER_00 1:12:51

Exactly. So it's this is Vibes, and they're gonna win games off of Vibes. And there's always a team in the NFL that shocks everyone. And it wouldn't be surprising if this was one of those teams because this is the division to do it. Nobody in the NFC South could be a like if the Saints make it to the playoffs or the Falcons make it, it's like, yeah, your division is dog shit. One of you have to make it. Yes, someone else then. The Titans would be one of those wild card teams that it's like, oh, this is awesome that the Titans made it. Yep. I agree. And I do blame Robert Salah's failures on almost strictly on the New York Jets.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:32

I like the Titans, not a hater.

SPEAKER_01 1:13:34

I'm thinking about it, man. I do kind of like that it's uh Brian Dable and uh Robert Salah. Dable's also an idiot. Well, no, I I kind of well, again, they're both great coordinators, respectively. So I get that that's why I think it's kind of fun to be together as like two coaches that got kicked out of kicked out of Jersey, um, kind of like, I don't know, disgruntled, like, you know, frowned upon, like cast aside. And then they're just it's like a it's like the start of like the movie when they go like to the music city and they just kind of figure it out together and they're like, you know what, everybody cast us off from the big apple. Sure. Yeah. We're gonna go find our our uh retribution in the music city.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:08

Yeah. All right, we'll move on to the final division of the night, the AFC or the NFC South. Do you have your lock for the division? Give our locks.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:17

Um because it sounds like Justin and I are both locking the playoffs.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:20

I like Houston. I'm stuck between Houston and Jackson.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:24

I know where I would go. I'll take Houston. Yeah, I would go Houston on uh in in that uh Houston will win 10 games.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:32

There'll be an 11-win playoff team division winner. All right, we'll move on. Oh, you guys both walking out the Titans? Yeah. Oh, I love that.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:38

Yep. Titans are like Titans are my mortal lock. Like the like if I only got one to bet, it would be the Titans. Interesting. If I can advise our listeners to bet one, it's the Titans. But don't bet it before I do.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:49

All right, Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the top team in the NFC South. So the eight and a half wins, plus 105 to the over, minus 125 to the under. Offensive line current. Offensive line ranked fourth. Defensive front ranks 14th, and their strength of schedule is the 25, 25th easiest.

SPEAKER_01 1:15:08

Yeah, the uh the Buccaneers bring in offensive coordinator Zach Robinson into the booth this year, um, as well as adding Ruben Bain, Josiah Trotter, and Ted Hurst, big Ted Hurst guy, um in in the uh in the draft this year. Also added Alex Alec Anzolone, um Al Qarin Mohammed, uh Kenneth Gainwell, and Ashawn Robinson. They lose um franchise legends, Mike Evans, Levante David, Jamal Dean, Logan Hall, Christian Izzyan, uh Anthony Walker, and uh Rashad White. So uh a lot of turnover on this team that I still think is kind of talented. Um it's weird to say it because they lost a lot of big names there that I mentioned, but I think some of those were kind of fading. Um and I talked to you guys just about this on the side before, but this is a team that I think may want to consider a soft rebuild potentially, just like a little mild reset, because there's still enough talent on this team to be really good. But if they could find themselves with like a top 15 draft pick where they could still like sniff at a quarterback, maybe not the first one off the board, but in a draft class, it should be pretty, pretty deep. Maybe get their get their hands on a guy um and not have to pay Baker and then kind of fill out the roster the rest of the way. I think, I mean, I think this team is in a good spot. So, because of that though, and that's where I think that they maybe should try to land, that leaves me on their under at eight and a half. So um give me the bucks under eight and a half.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:29

I'm also on the under here. Um I agree with a lot of what you said. They also ended the year really bad. I think like seven or last nine, they lost. Um, they sputtered towards the end. They brought back Todd Bowles, which was a surprise to some. Um, so again, is that be one of the hottest seats in the NFL? Probably another coach entering the season on the hot seat, which is just never a great thing. Um and another roster, like you said, it is a good roster, don't get me wrong, but it is getting a little older. Um and I I agree with you. I think it could be I mean, they've been kind of holding on. This is still kind of the Brady era Bucks in a what in a way. I know my Kevins is gone. But it's the same kind of philosophy, I feel like, in that same kind of organizational build. And um I think it could be good for them to move away from it. Uh either or, you know, they might be just forced to because they might not be very good. But I'll take the under.

SPEAKER_00 1:17:25

Yeah, I'm gonna go with the under here. I've said it many times this podcast. I think this division is trash. I think it it hit me today that maybe Baker isn't as good as for some reason in my mind he's been the last three years. I was thinking the Bucs have been winning 12 games, even though I watch every football season in most of the games. But it's when they're good, they're not that good. And I realized, oh yeah, they've been doing not that good in a you put an NFC North in that division and they go 6-0 in the division every year. Um I just think it's a very interesting team. The Baker stuff is going to it's gonna weigh on them because apparently they did offer him money. He didn't want to take it because he didn't like the length. So yeah, I think it's just oh it this is the opposite of the Titans. This is weird vibes going into the season for the Bucks. And there's really only one team in this division that I think could be fun-ish. But who knows, maybe Bucky's good. I do like I like the Bucks line for the most part, especially like at least their outside protection. And I think Igbuk is good. But yeah, no Mike Evans this year either. Thought he should have retired. He had a Super Bowl, but I don't know. I'm gonna go under here. I don't think they're that good.

SPEAKER_02 1:18:47

All right, we're locked up on that one together. I'm moving to the Carolina Panthers who are sitting at seven and a half as their win total over and un or Omer's plus one ten, under a minus one thirty. Offensive line, rank comes in at twelfth. Defensive front comes in at 19th, and their strength to schedule is the 30th. So they have an easy strength to schedule.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:05

Okay. Uh, I did not realize that. I might have to change my answer here.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:08

Uh make sure that's like easier.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:11

For um for the draft, they added uh Monroe Freeling, Lee Hunter, uh, Chris Brazil, R.I.P. Um, as well as they have the third hardest. Oh, there you go. I I I was like that. Like that is not what I remember. Uh because I uh I'm leaning on the under. I was like, oh, if it's the if it's the 30th hardest schedule, I might need to.

SPEAKER_02 1:19:32

They won the division list.

SPEAKER_01 1:19:33

Okay. Um they also added Jalen Phillips, Devin Lloyd, um, some online help for Rasheed Walker and Stone Forsyth. Um, and I guess uh also added uh Luke Fortner. Um plus some uh just offensive uh depth in general with John Mechie and Kenny Pickett um in the reserves. Um they lose Andy Dalton, uh Ashawn Robinson, Cade Mays, and friend of the show, DJ Wannham. Um I think the story for this team is how fast Ike Aquanu can recover and how far Bryce Young can really take him. Uh, because we've seen Bryce Young play well-ish, and then we've seen him play really shitty uh to the point that Andy Dalton was starting over him. Um I they're gonna need to take a step forward offensively, um, especially with Dave Canales being an offensive head coach, and their offensive numbers just have not been very impressive under him, and they they they've stocked weapons. Um, I guess I didn't mention, but Jonathan Brooks will be back. Um, but I'm just not confident this team can take the step forward. Um so I I lean on the under seven and a half, but it came up pretty close when we counted up.

SPEAKER_02 1:20:38

This is a tough one. I also slightly lean under. Actually, you know what? I'm gonna take the over. I'll take the over. Uh no, I'm gonna go under. Ah, there we go. I'm gonna go under. Um, I'm not sure. Yeah. Dave Canellas, I'm not sure about him. Um and I I will say I'll compliment the team, actually. I'll go under, but I'll compliment the team. I like they've done a good job rebuilding their offensive line. I remember doing this a few years ago. It was it was ranked pretty low. Um, and they've added weapons. I'm not sure how great any of them are, but they've added weapons around uh Bryce Young. Um they lost Rico Dattle, though, who gave him a spark last year. So I'll lean under. I'll go under here. I think this might be I'm just not sure how good this team actually is, pound for pound. Like you said, the division is not very good. I think I might like two teams.

SPEAKER_00 1:21:27

I'm gonna go over here. This is a eight and nine division winner of the NFC South uh Carolina Panthers that we're talking about. I do think I I liked what I saw from Bryce Young last year.

SPEAKER_02 1:21:39

They were kind of the Again, they won the division because the Bucks melted down. Like it's like, I don't know.

SPEAKER_00 1:21:45

Not necessarily the comeback kids, but kind of like the cardiac kids. They were in close games, they won a few at the end. Now, there are some Bryce Young plays that you'll watch and you'll be like, what the hell was that? I remember watching Panthers Cardinals last year and he did that on the goal line. And it's like, holy shit, how are you an NFL quarterback? But uh if Tet can stay where he's at, uh even take a step up. If Zay, if Xavier Legette wants to play a little bit of football, um, that would probably be good for them. Jonathan Brooks, you could say the same for the last three years. Yep. But in all honesty, hopefully Jonathan Brooks can stay healthy. It sucks when guys are that injury prone. It's kind of giving J.K. Dobbins a little bit. Um but yeah, I think this division is dog shit. So I'm gonna go with this is this division is giving eight and nine whoever finishes first.

SPEAKER_01 1:22:41

Yeah, I mean, same as last year. I mean, they this division's bad, like straight up, bad. I I don't I don't love really any of the teams here.

SPEAKER_00 1:22:49

And the division's so bad that they all get a few wins against each other and nobody ever gets like a top draft pick.

SPEAKER_01 1:22:57

So it they can never really escape mediocrity. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:23:01

All right, let's move on to the Saints, who also at seven and a half wins. Overs plus 135, unders minus 160, offensive line ranked of 16, uh defensive front rank of 28th, and the strength of schedule.

SPEAKER_03 1:23:16

Oh interesting.

SPEAKER_01 1:23:18

Um for the uh for the Saints, we add uh Jordan Tyson, Christian Miller, and Oscar Delp in the draft, uh, as well as Travis Achan, um, Jacksonville, Jaguar Departure, um, David Edwards, Caden Ellis, uh, Noah Fant, Tyree Wilson, uh Keeta Pargers here, Demario Davis, Elance Taylor, uh, Luke Fortner, uh, and Foster Moreau. Um I'm expecting a noticeable step forward on the offensive side of the ball for the Saints. So I'm leaning on the over here, um, lean under for the uh for the Panthers. So I'm kind of going the opposite way where I think the Saints will go eight and nine, and the Panthers will probably go, well, what is that, seven and ten? But um I'd a little lean to the over here just because of uh Tyler Shuck's strong ending at the end of last year. Um, paired with some of the additions they made on the offensive side of the mall. Like they're truly they're clearly trying to lighten the load on that side for him, stock him with some weapons, and see what the Shuckster can do. And if it looks like the last five games, it seems like they'll be in a good spot. So um I lean the over here for the Saints.

SPEAKER_02 1:24:23

Justin?

SPEAKER_00 1:24:25

Yeah, I'll lean the over on the Saints. This was one of those I did want to split the division in half, go two overs, two unders. Um, I'm not the most confident in them. I do think the Panthers are a better team. Uh, but offensively, if Jordan Tyson comes in and is any impact like we've seen from previous first-round wide receivers, whether that's Tet McMillan, Malik Neighbors, and he's I'm not saying he's gonna be that good, but they have a number one receiver that they're hoping Tyson can overtake over the next few years. But getting a second receiver to come in, like the Jefferson to the Adam Thielen, it makes your team instantly look much better, makes a quarterback look much better. Uh, I don't think it'll be long yet. Juwan Jans Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant are there. I do think Oscar Delp is a very good player. Um he is he was the second coming after Brock Bowers. Obviously, he didn't have the Browers resume, but he does have he is a lot like Brock Bowers, besides the run after catch. That's what separated Brock Bowers and made him this the greatest tight end prospect of all time. But everything before that, Oscar Delp does very well. Um so yeah, I think this offensively they can be good. It'd be nice if they kept things fresh. It's always I never know how the offenses are gonna be run. Um are they gonna be running a lot of motions? Are they gonna be trying to make this easier uh for Tyler Stuck? And hopefully that's the case. Uh Travis A. Chan is played great last year. I think running backs like Liam Cohen offense, but I think he'll be fine. And hopefully Kamara has a little bit of juice left uh just to kind of a farewell season for my fantasy GOAT. Uh the defense, it's a toss-up. Playing in this division, your defense might look some good some games, and you'll probably play some teams where it looks pretty rough, but it's the NFC South, so truly any given Sunday. Truly.

SPEAKER_02 1:26:31

Um, okay, we'll move on to. I think we've all been on the same so far. Oh, my bad. I haven't given mine. I'm on the over. Um a lot of the same reasons you guys said. Tyler Shug might be better than Bryce Young. Um, not trying to get on the hype train too much, but let's have a dialogue. I mean, yeah, let's have a dialogue.

SPEAKER_00 1:26:48

We're the aggregators. They gotta get that one.

SPEAKER_02 1:26:51

Has more college football starts under his belt.

SPEAKER_00 1:26:53

So um Case Keenum goat.

SPEAKER_02 1:26:57

Yeah. They both have played like a one good five-game sample size. You know, played a shit ton of college football games. Yeah. Um, both old souls, but yeah, Kamara though, too, and they got Kim Jordan. It's kind of like a send-off. It's a quite like send-off here in New Orleans. So I could see them kind of rallying a little bit.

SPEAKER_01 1:27:17

I could too. The vibes, I think the vibe that's a vibes team for me a little bit. Like, I I think if there's a vibes team in this division, I think it's the same.

SPEAKER_02 1:27:24

I think this is the first time in my life I've ever found myself kind of cheering for the New Orleans Saints. Honestly. Like, I just feel bad for them. Yeah. They've been in such purgatory for so long.

SPEAKER_01 1:27:32

Yeah, that that was it's what um Sean Payton did to him, dude. You know, set him into Cap Hell and just retired. What an asshole. No asshole, Sean Payton.

SPEAKER_02 1:27:42

We'll finish with the car or the Falcons, my bad. Wrong, wrong red bird. Uh the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals. Kind of weird, you know. It starts with an A and it's a bird that's red. And they're both in the NFC. Kind of and they're both just bit. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 1:27:58

Atlanta and Arizona.

SPEAKER_02 1:28:03

Six and a half wins, sitting at over minus one twenty, under plus one hundred. Uh offensive line ranked at 10th, defensive front ranked at 31st. This was before the Javon Walker injury. And they're strike the schedule comes in at the 19th. Easiest.

SPEAKER_01 1:28:19

Yeah. Um in the offseason, the Falcons added two-time coach of the year winner Kevin Safansky, uh, bringing in defensive coordinator Jeff Albrich.

SPEAKER_02 1:28:26

Um his wife just passed away every answer.

SPEAKER_01 1:28:30

Damn, yeah. I okay, I did. Well, when I was looking up the defensive coordinator, I was looking up Jeff Albrich, that was the first thing that popped up. And I was like, what's up with Jeff Albrich's wife? But I didn't look at it. So yeah, there you go. Damn, that's tough. Um in the draft, they added Avian Terrell, uh, Zachariah Branch, Harold Perkins. Um, as well as in the offseason, they added Tua Tagovaloa, uh, Jahan Dotson, Aziz O'Jelari, uh, Cameron Thomas, Christian Harris, and Brian Robinson Jr., now comprising the most confusing backfield in football. Um, might have gotten our good friend Kansas.

SPEAKER_02 1:29:05

Ben Burns on that.

SPEAKER_01 1:29:06

Ben Burns on that. The old the old B. Robinson trades are are they're confusing. I mean, they're it's only gonna get more confusing this year. Um departures now are uh Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Algier, uh David Omeyata, uh, and Caden Ellis. Oh, also I have Cale McGarry on here. Uh this is my lock for the over, actually, just uh based on Stefansky vibes. Um I mentioned off the top a two-time coach of the year, but I think it's interesting because they're once again left asking the question who's going to play quarterback for Kevin Stefansky. I felt like what's plagued him in Cleveland has now followed him to Atlanta. And um what they get out of the quarterback position, I think, is what's gonna really make this win total because I think they'll have no problem running the football. I think the defense will look better. Um, like I especially up front. Um I I didn't realize it's the 31st worst defensive front last year. But then when you said that, I remember that that was like the whole key against the Falcons that everyone could run the ball against the Falcons. Um so I anticipate that not being an issue. They also have that thing that like since I don't know if you remember, but like Vic Beasley had like double-digit sacks, and then they like didn't re-sign him and he left, and then they haven't been able to hit like a double-digit sack total guy for like 10 years now.

SPEAKER_02 1:30:19

Uh I saw a similar set like that. It's like the uh um the commanders, they haven't had like a thousand-yard rushing running back in like 10 seasons. The curse of Clinton Torres. Yeah. Chris Albert Moore. Oh, Alfred Morris.

SPEAKER_01 1:30:33

Okay. Yeah, sorry. Forgot about the Dinger guy. Yeah, that dude loved hitting bombs. Oh, yeah. Um, but yeah, I mean, I kind of like the over here just because I think Kevin, like, I just get too excited about what B. John Robinson and Brian Robinson, even like a little bit too, because I'm sure they'll spell him a little bit, um, will look like in this Kevin Stefansky offense. Like, it's just, it's gonna be nasty. I I I would imagine. So I get really excited about that. I think Jeff Ulbricht's proven he's like a capable uh DC. So tighten that up a little bit. Um yeah, I don't know. It's just it really I I'm just so torn on what is gonna happen at the quarterback spot. Yeah. Um, like if Penix comes back, do they even want Penix to start? Like, and if Tua's out there, like, do do you like what is really left of Tua? Like, was Mike McDaniel really like just like deprived of quarterback talent that much? Or like was it maybe a Mike McDaniel issue? Like, I there's so many questions around the most important position for this team that now I'm kind of talking myself out of the lock for the over. I might just be leaning the over. But I don't know. I I think the Falcons are gonna be a really fascinating team to watch. And part of the thing, or part of the reason why I like them when I was looking at this is this division is just so ass. So give me the team with the lowest win total and take the over because I think they're all gonna somehow find the middle again.

SPEAKER_02 1:31:48

I will say though, that's not that level of a win total for a bad, like uh a bad team. But bad team in the division. Worst team in the division.

SPEAKER_01 1:31:55

Yeah, but what if these teams are all bad though?

SPEAKER_02 1:31:57

No, I I I agree. Um, and I mean I'm on the over. Um, I lean the over. This will not be my lock, but I I agree. There there's enough talent, I think, with Stefansi's mind as well, you'd you'd think that they'd be able to, you know, figure something out with what's said talent. Um But the Falcons are just weirdly such a just disappointing team. They always whatever you think of them, whether it's not that much or a lot, they always find a way to kind of just be disappointing. Haven't made the Super Bowl since 28-3. Or haven't made my bad, haven't made the playoffs since 28-3, which I always think is like an interesting stat. Similar thing happened to the Broncos where they didn't make the playoffs until uh I think last year was our first time making the playoffs since they went to the Super Bowl. Yeah, they just snaked that. Um so they seem kind of stink bitten. This weird injury thing now. I don't think Penix is gonna be ready to start the season. And to a will, it's like some back issues. But still, I mean, even when he's played, I I'm not trying to knock him, but he's taken so many hits to the head where I genuinely question some of his cognitive function reasoning. Yeah. To the point, like I think that's why he throws interceptions and turns the ball over so much now. Um, also just not a massive quarterback. So with that being said, I like uh I'll take the over. I'll I'll I'll I'll I'll take I'll I'll bet on positive regression.

SPEAKER_00 1:33:20

Yeah, this is a this is a tough one, and uh it did uh I will say in a one of the dynasty leagues I'm in, uh the Brian Robinson, B. John Robinson has already shown its head. Uh friend of the show, friend of the show, Kip Shatnan. Uh he fell victim to it. Uh sister, a huge Carver King fan. Um friend of the show, Lucy Shetnon as well. But uh there was a lot, a lot of drama in the league because uh Kip didn't know that it was Brian Robinson and the commissioner, in my opinion, rightfully so, undid the trade. Uh some guys in the league started freaking out about it. Um it is funny because right before you make the trade, there is a picture of the players. But uh Bijan is like if this team didn't have Bijan, it would be my lock under. Bijan is that good of a player and so fun to watch. And Drake London is also very good. Yeah, who knows what Zachariah Branch can do in this offense. I agree though, having QB issue, first off, both lefties, that's a problem.

SPEAKER_01 1:34:28

Uh I kind of like that. No, it's it's a symmetry. Like you know the guy's gonna be left handed.

SPEAKER_00 1:34:32

I guess that's true. But you're starting at a lower your your ceiling or your floor is lower because they're both lefties. But maybe they're trying to the best the goat, in my opinion, the Atlanta goat was a lefty. So maybe they're trying to re-redo this.

SPEAKER_01 1:34:48

Um that's how you become uncursed. What's like so weird though, too, is that they're also both very injury prone, but like in different ways. Yeah. Like I mean, Tua is one shot away in the head from never playing football again, and Michael Penix is one lower leg shot from never playing football again. Maybe like, I mean, who knows?

SPEAKER_00 1:35:03

They're both uh one upper body and one lower body injury away from not walking. What's up by Michael Penix fires with one of his from being in a wheelchair? They're in a very interesting spot. They're one of their outside linebackers just tore his ACL, which sucks. Jalen Walker. Uh their other outside linebacker tried to murder his girlfriend by running over her with a car. Um, so it's this is just a weird team.

SPEAKER_01 1:35:31

It's the NFL, so he'll probably miss like two games.

SPEAKER_00 1:35:33

Yeah, yeah. Yeah, it'll be a probably a 50,000 fine.

SPEAKER_01 1:35:36

Oh, the the the uh the charges were dropped. Yeah, but the obviously can still the the domestic dispute was still helping people forgot.

SPEAKER_00 1:35:44

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:35:45

Dead ass, it seems like what they're doing.

SPEAKER_00 1:35:47

Right before we started recording, I looked up I looked up James Bears.

SPEAKER_01 1:35:52

Put him on the trade block. I did I did put him on the trade block. I was like, well, because I don't know if you guys saw this, but um he had a sack or more in his last seven games or six of his last seven games.

SPEAKER_02 1:36:00

I didn't know that they started turning around because I think that was during when they beat the freaking uh they started to turn around a little bit. Their defensive front looked good against the Vikings, I remember. Those two young guys. Yeah, I mean he's James Fierce is stunned I mean James Spears is really good.

SPEAKER_01 1:36:12

He's just a little crazy, but that's kind of how you need him to bend the edge.

SPEAKER_00 1:36:17

You just wish the crazy was reckless driving without anyone in the proximity of you. Yeah, like Miles Garrett.

SPEAKER_01 1:36:24

Like when Miles Garrett's crazy just comes out when he's in a nice car. And he's actually very normal around his girlfriend, just so it seems yeah, I guess so.

SPEAKER_00 1:36:30

But yeah, this is a this team is one of those I could go under, I could go over, I can go under, I could lock either one of them. It's just a shot in the dark of I'd love to know who the quarterback is gonna be, but I guess that really doesn't matter. Oh man. That's my thing.

SPEAKER_01 1:36:51

Is I was like, I I don't know if who is under center really matters as long as it's not that third string guy. I don't I can't remember his name now, but um, as long as it's not that dude, I think I think we should be all right. But maybe we'd be all right if it's him too.

SPEAKER_00 1:37:03

King, or you said 19th easiest, so 11th, uh 13th, 12th, whatever. Hardest. Yeah, it's a I don't even know. I will I guess I'll stick with what I sent. I'll go two under, two over, even though I should hedge by going three over. I'll lean under here, I guess. God, this division sucks.

SPEAKER_01 1:37:24

It's it's really tough. I I I'm staying locked my over. I kind of honestly talking about it. I was like talking myself out of it. And then I was like, well, where do I go though? And I have nowhere else to go. So um I'm I'm gonna stay locked with the Falcons to win seven games or more.

SPEAKER_02 1:37:40

Um, I will take shit. I actually don't know what I want. I think I'm gonna take Panthers under. Okay. I'll take Panthers under.

SPEAKER_00 1:37:50

I'm gonna take the Bucks under. Let's have some fun.

SPEAKER_01 1:37:53

Oh I'll take Bucks under. All right. I really like Bucks under. Like it if it wasn't if it wasn't Falcons over for me, I think Bucks under would be would be the play. Four games? So Panthers. I can just see them. Dude, they made the playoffs last year.

unknown 1:38:06

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:06

They almost won a playoff game. They're shitty though. They didn't still lose. Um But see the difference is though, the Jags won 13 games, almost won a playoff game, and now they're at eight and a half.

SPEAKER_03 1:38:17

No.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:18

Um, I'd like to change my AFC East one. Um I'm gonna lock um I'm gonna lock the Bills over. Oh, okay.

SPEAKER_02 1:38:28

That was my I think that was my original. Oh no, it wasn't.

SPEAKER_00 1:38:31

That's what it's not very confident on the Dolphins over three and a half anymore.

SPEAKER_01 1:38:34

Yeah, you were really I was, but you know what? It's just it sounded fun in my head, and I'm like, is it really that fun though? Like, I honestly cheering for the under is like a more like an exhilarating bet where it's like, can I watch like because you're gonna watch this team lose a lot of games, and I'm like, I don't want to have to tune in every week and be like, can I please just see the Dolphins win a game this week? It's like week 10, I've seen them win one game, and I'm like, please. I'm like, dude, this team's one in ten, and it's been a month since they won the game. Please, like, can I get can I stack some wins here? Yep.

SPEAKER_03 1:39:06

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 1:39:06

So I I I just it makes me a little sick to my stomach. So I I I guess call call me Faint of Heart, but the the bill's over ten and a half, I think, is where is where I'm gonna place it. I don't I don't know though. What about the Jets, man? Jets under. I kind of like the over for the Jets. You know what? Justin, you still have the dolphins under, right? Yeah. Okay, I'll take the dolphins. I'll stick with the dolphins over. Wow. We'll lock battle. Well, I just I like the idea of having something heads up on the on the table.

SPEAKER_02 1:39:37

On the sheet. It's fun.

SPEAKER_01 1:39:40

Maybe we can side wager.

SPEAKER_00 1:39:41

First round pick, Dynasty League.

SPEAKER_01 1:39:44

Okay, I'm back on the bills.

SPEAKER_02 1:39:47

All right, I think we'll wrap it up. Thank you for our our mega sode. We did the South and the East, both divisions. Jam-packed episode. Really fun, honestly. I enjoyed that. Um, we'll get this posted, our picks posted, and we'll continue on. Uh next week we'll get into a new division. Haven't decided which one yet. And uh we'll keep trudging as we get closer to kickoff. Peace.