Orbital geopolitics, with Antonia Hmaidi and Altynay Junusova

Satellite internet has attracted increased attention in the last years and the possibility for its civilian as well as miliary use makes it a so called “dual use” technology. Antonia Hmaidi and Altynay Junusova, Senior Analyst and Analyst in the Science, Technology and Innovation Program at MERICS, join Johannes Heller-John to talk about China in the race for satellite internet, its competition with the US and what it will take for Europe to catch up.

More on this topic:

• Orbital Geopolitics: China’s dual-use space internet, Rebecca Arcesati, Antonia Hmaidi, Altynay Junusova
• China Tech Observatory

Transcript

Johannes Heller-John 0:13

Satellite communications have attracted increased attention in the last years. They promise to deliver internet connectivity to underserved areas, often remote and sparsely populated. But they also enable this connectivity in regions where other infrastructure has been destroyed, like the frontline in Ukraine. The possibility for civilian as well as military use of the technology makes it a so-called dual-use technology. My name is Johannes Heller-John, and today we will talk about China in the race for satellite internet, its competition with the US, and what it will take for Europe to catch up. For this conversation, I'm joined by my colleagues Antonia Hamidi and Altynay Junusova, Senior Analyst and Analyst in the Science, Technology, and Innovation Program at MERICS. Together with Rebecca Arcesati, they are the authors of the report "Orbital Geopolitics: China's Dual Use Space Internet". Altynay, Antonia, welcome to the podcast.

Altynay Junusova 1:07

Thanks for having us.

Antonia Hmaidi 1:08

Yeah, thanks for inviting us here.

Johannes Heller-John 1:10

The pleasure is all mine. If we think of space and and dual use, I think people often imagine rocket technology, space lasers, but this report is is not about that, right?

Antonia Hmaidi 1:23

Yes. This report is about satellite internet, and satellite internet is kind of like a very traditional dual use technology in that it has a very clear commercial, so non-military use, but it also does have a very, very clear military use. And this clear military use has become especially apparent when looking at Ukraine. The role of Starlink, the role that Starlink plays there in being able to transmit information from the battlefield to other battlefields, but also from the battlefield to headquarters, in being able to um have drones and have these drones adapt their course while they are flying is really, really key. Any kind of physical infrastructure that, like if you're thinking of a cable or even a base station that you have, it's usually not very realistic to have that on the battlefield because the battlefield moves and things can be destroyed. Therefore, satellite internet and just being able to have an internet connectivity everywhere you are, just with a small device that is not much larger than a smartphone, is something that is really, really key for militaries, especially in the current sort of information-led warfare age.

Johannes Heller-John 2:38

In your report you write about different orbits for these satellites, especially the low earth orbit. Could you explain what these are?

Antonia Hmaidi 2:45

Something that has um reshaped the satellite internet market really significantly is the emergence of LEO satellites and LEO satellite internet. Um LEO stands for low earth orbit, and this is the height, if you want, at which these satellites orbit the Earth. Traditionally, satellites would orbit the Earth um very, very high up. That meant that to cover the entire Earth, you would need only a small number of satellites. Um if you're happy with not covering all the poles, maybe three to five would be sufficient. But because it's so far away, it takes a long time for data to be transmitted to them, and there's not a lot of bandwidth. So that is what traditional satellite phones were using. And um, remember how like when you were on a plane, you used to not have internet, or if you had internet, it was very, very slow internet, because it was using these traditional satellites.

Antonia Hmaidi 3:43

Starlink really revolutionized the world in that sense in having a um in having satellites in low earth orbit, um, which is not as high up. And suddenly you need a lot more satellites to um cover the entire earth. You probably need between 400 and 1,000 to cover most of the earth, which is of course a lot more than five, for instance. Um and these satellites in lower earth orbit, because they're so close to the to Earth, um, you can transmit a lot more data and a lot quicker. So um Starlink and in theory all other lower earth orbit um satellite internets, they can actually be as good as your landline broadband internet. So um there are already areas in the US that have chosen not to invest in landline because they're relatively remote and not very densely populated, but instead to invest in um satellite internet.

Johannes Heller-John 4:41

And what does the current market for satellite internet look like? I mean, you just mentioned Starlink. Starlink is a US product. Um who are the main players and what is their global impact?

Altynay Junusova 4:53

Yeah, that's true that Starlink is um is one of the players. And uh the current satellite internet market is being reshaped by low Earth orbit or LEO constellations. And Starlink literally in the lead. It has deployed thousands of satellites, it has millions of users and operates in more than 100 countries and giving it at matched scale, speed, and global impact. And other major players, including in Europe and China, um, are competing with Starlink, but Lego satellite internet remains new and capital intensive technology, and it's also technologically demanding, which limits how many actors can realistically enter the market at scale. So for China, for instance, um one interesting thing is that China does not yet appear to be leading globally in communication satellite technology, but it is a fast follower. So it has domestic production, number of launches, deployment are expanding rapidly. So and the Chinese government has made the industry a clear priority. So with this investment at the national prevention local levels, as well as a growing number of private sectors in space industry, plus state-owned enterprises, it's likely only a matter of time before China catches up with the global leaders.

Johannes Heller-John 6:17

Starling has like several thousand satellites already in low Earth orbit. How do Europe and China, the competitors, compare to this number?

Antonia Hmaidi 6:24

Uh-huh. Europe and China each have um fewer than 300 satellites in orbit. And in China's case, they're not even all part of the same constellation. And usually satellites that aren't part of the same constellations can't talk to each other. So each of these um providers, and for Europe, it is Eutelsat. Um for China, um, my colleague will also talk a little bit more. The two big providers are Space Sail and GuoWang, but each of them really is nowhere close to covering the entire Earth at this point at a high bandwidth rate.

Johannes Heller-John 6:59

Which leads us nicely into the goals that China has. Where does China envision it it can be in the future, what where it wants to be?

Antonia Hmaidi 7:08

China's goals for satellite internet are actually very ambitious, but they're also relatively new. China has um since 2016 really talked a lot about um the space ground sea integrated network. The idea of having one integrated network that includes space infrastructure, so space internet or satellite-based internet, um, sub-sea cables, and also ground infrastructure, so um kind of like traditional fiber optic cables. And the idea is to have one network that is really integrated so that wherever you are, you use the same devices for all of these networks and you can kind of communicate through whatever works. This also means that you have a lot of um reliability because if one of the um connections is cut for some reason, you still have either one or two other connections. So the goal really is to build up this resiliency and to have one integrated network and to use this integrated network also for future technologies. China, for instance, is the leader in quantum communication technologies and the quantum satellites, but also the quantum network on the ground, is actually part of this um national effort to build up an integrated network that is also then being used to kind of like ensure safe, secure, and reliable communication.

Johannes Heller-John 8:38

And how does China plan to go about these goals? How does it want to reach them?

Altynay Junusova 8:43

Yes, so um China excels at identifying priority areas and um directing resources efficiently. So focusing like on reusable rockets, which is a challenge for China, or like laser technology or space RD or commercialization, so they can invest heavily across the entire innovation cycle, starting from foundational research to practical applications, so which allows them to move faster and more strategically than systems like in Europe, for instance, that are less centralized and more bureaucratically constrained. So for the innovation overall, stable funding is critical. We know that China is increasing its investment in science and technology every year, like by 7% or so. So focusing broadly on a few targeted strategic domains, and space domain is one of them. And um, this multi-orbit approach, especially covering like LEO and also like MEO and GEO, aims to create a seamless network, integrating artificial intelligence, um, Internet of Things, for instance, and advanced um intersatellite links, like also testing technologies like 6G or quantum communication.

Altynay Junusova 9:59

It's also important to talk about like commercial space in China. So basically, like it's a race with lots of horses in it. And um China's space industry was initially launched by state-owned enterprises, and um but now we can see that the space sector was very state-owned and it is very state-owned. But the experience with Starlink is actually showed China that the state is not really enough, and private firms uh play important role in the innovation cycle. So the private sector has become highly competitive in China. Some of them like failed, and but others being observed, and some of them actually became a sort of national champions in the industry. For instance, like China is working on reusable rocket technology, and it's mainly driven by the private sector right now. China is also um has made impressive strides in satellite internet, like aiming to have like 10 million users by 2030, and they have like approximately like 3 million today, but also that Antonia mentioned about mega constellations. So they have like a Space Sail and GuoWang are laying the foundation and um growing private sector, which is nearly like 600 space-related uh companies in China, are driving innovation in low-cost satellites, broadband services, and reusable rockets, as I mentioned before.

Altynay Junusova 11:29

Manufacturing is also scaling up with joint ventures, producing hundreds of satellites per year and grant infrastructure with TT& C stations, ground systems, and overseas access points. So uh it's all shows that operational capability in intelligence for China is really important. And beyond these launches, the industry relies on broad support infrastructure. So basically, logistics, grant systems and services are critical for its functioning. In one word, is that China is creating a strong pathways uh for the private sector state-owned enterprises and also for young people, for young talents uh to enter and build careers in space-related fields.

Johannes Heller-John 12:19

All resources in some way are finite, uh, but some seams are more scarce than others, and one of them is uh spectrum bandwidth. Maybe you can talk about uh that a little bit.

Antonia Hmaidi 12:32

So, in terms of spectrum allocation, which is uh a big topic currently, we're talking about all of these satellites are transmitting data. And they're doing this using um basically light waves or um waves of some sort that are um using a very specific frequency. So each satellite uses a specific frequency. If you've ever used a radio, for instance, and you're changing the frequency of what you're listening to, and there's like interference going on, because maybe um a frequency in between that's actually empty is too close to two other things. This can also happen to um r the radio frequency that these satellites use. Usually this interference then wouldn't be heard, but it would still show up, so the data would be corrupted. This means that um if you know that two satellites are like if you know that two satellites could be close to each other, they have to use a different frequency and a frequency that's quite far away from each other. And there's only so much physical frequency that works for this specific um purpose. Now, of course, um you can't you could say that there's infinite frequency because um you can always kind of like go lower if you want, but um in actuality you can't really use all frequencies for all purposes. Um so some frequencies you need a lot of power to go through, and satellites don't usually aren't usually able to transmit data with a lot of power.

Antonia Hmaidi 14:03

So um in the world, there is basically a finite amount of or a finite number of frequencies that are usable for this purpose. And um currently there is kind of like a big race going on between especially China and the US with Starlink and now also Kuiper, which is the um US, basically Jeff Bezos' outfit, they're trying to compete with Starlink. And then with the um Chinese efforts to get enough um frequency, and we call that frequency allocation sometimes, so that they can um shoot up as many satellites as they will ever need. Now, of course, if um if a satellite is destroyed and you shoot up another one, you might be able to reuse it. But in general, frequencies can't very easily be reused because these um satellites, they're they're orbiting the entire Earth. So it's not like China can provide these frequencies to um to its satellites and then it's fine. Instead, they need to be at an international level because sometimes the satellite will be over Germany, but it will still use the same kind of frequency.

Antonia Hmaidi 15:11

Therefore, currently at the International Telecommunications Union, um, one of the big topics really is this kind of frequency allocation. And um traditionally, this frequency allocation works with a first come, first served basis. So you can go there, you can apply for them, but um because frequency is so scarce, there are rules in there around if you're not using it, then you can't keep it. So China is actually currently running up to a um possible deadline within the next um two years, where they would need to have 10% of the satellites that they applied to for this frequency in space. It's not realistic that China will have that in space, but it's also unclear what the ITU will actually do. In theory, the ITU could, of course, just um take back these frequencies and reallocate them, for instance, to Starlink or to maybe Utelsat. But in practice, um the ITU has not done this at a large scale yet. So we don't know if they might be giving them a grace period or what the situation there is, and if that might be a problem for Europe actually going forward, because Europe currently doesn't have as much spectrum allocated as um China and the US. And China and the US are kind of very quickly trying to buy up as much spectrum as possible or to get as much spectrum as possible. It's not it's not a funding issue at this point, but it is a credible commitment issue. So you can only get spectrum if you can have a credible commitment that you're actually shooting things into space. You can't just say, oh, I'll just get this and um not have a plan for launching these satellites.

Johannes Heller-John 16:50

So the issue is not the physical space in space, it's more the bandwidth that they uh transmit data with.

Antonia Hmaidi 16:57

Yes. Um the physical space will be limited a lot later than the frequency space. Just because if you think about the earth and um even low earth orbit is still usually like a thousand kilometers across uh above the earth. So you basically have um the surface of the earth plus this height, and you also have vertical space. So low earth orbit isn't just one round if you want, it's many, many rounds between a specific height. And uh I think it's between 500 and 1500, something like that, um, kilometers above the earth. Um so between that, you can have a lot of satellites in different orbits. Usually you try to have constellations at roughly the same um height if you want, because um, if you don't have that, it will be more difficult for them to all have the same latency and to all communicate with each other in uh in the best case. But in general, um the physical space isn't an issue at this point.

Antonia Hmaidi 17:59

What we are running into more and more is what do you do with decommissioned satellites? So um I think we even had this discussion before about um space junk at one point, where um decommissioned satellites that maybe are up in um up in orbit and they stay there, but they also usually at one point have a very uncontrolled orbit. And that means that they can then kind of like um hit other satellites, and that creates new space junk. So this is indeed a problem that could happen at one point. There are theories around there of maybe some orbits will be unusable because of the space junk, but it's not that there there isn't any space, it's more that a specific space is taken up.

Johannes Heller-John 18:49

If we talk about dual use uh satellite telecommunication technology being dual use, that makes them kind of uh a participant in military scenes as well. So if at some point uh Starlink is used in a conflict between the US and China, for example, and I hope we never get there, then wouldn't be Starlink satellites be a legitimate military target for uh for the military, for the Chinese military, and vice versa.

Antonia Hmaidi 19:20

Actually, both China and the US are testing a lot of anti-satellite missiles exactly for this purpose. Because China during the um first Gulf War, when the US won in the Middle East relatively decisively, despite um not having a lot of experience fighting there and the other side being local, um, they won at least partly because GPS sort of started up, and this was the first GPS um supported war, if you want, and this really was a decisive enabler for the US victory. Um and ever since then, satellites and um back then it was mostly positioning satellites, which is also why China um invested so much into its own positioning Bedou system are very critical for the military.

Antonia Hmaidi 20:13

But that also means that in a conflict they would indeed be um sort of legitimate targets. And um we see China and the US really um kind of training and testing a lot in order to have um successful anti-satellite missiles. It's a technically challenging um field as well, because satellites tend to move quite fast, so you need to make sure that you your missile can also move quite fast, or you can easily calculate where they move. And then you're starting to think about um should satellites actually have evasion capabilities? And maybe they're also being tested now. So, yes, during a war, it is not clear if um you could hope or you could make sure that you actually um have access to these satellites long term.

Antonia Hmaidi 21:06

This is also why China invests so much into this integrated network, because they want to make sure even if the satellite doesn't work, then maybe we use ground infrastructure. Um Huawei experiments a lot with mobile 5G stations that you could basically take to war with you and that um you can easily um put up but also tear down. So this integrated network is exactly because there will never be um a hundred percent security, but it's quite difficult to shoot down satellites. And so far there have been tests, but we haven't seen a large scale effort to actually do it, which also means that testing is quite difficult because in order to test it, you actually need to do it. But if someone sees you doing it, you uh and it's peacetime, it's not an ideal thing. So this is something that, for instance, would be would quite likely to become better. A lot quicker during a war scenario. It's kind of like drones in Ukraine that have now really exploded in their use, because before that you could only test them in like laboratory conditions, and now we can test them, or like Ukraine is actually testing them outside of the lab, and that really enables um innovation to flourish if you want.

Altynay Junusova 22:22

Just to follow up for commercial players in space industry, for instance, it also means that because it's such a complicated industry that you need to think about all sorts of things, like military applications, but for commercial players, for instance, it's also about cybersecurity, about like being laced, for instance, like so many components like that you need to think like what's going to happen with your own constellations if it's up there. So it's um it's also a financially struggling uh perspective. So, and something that I forgot to mention before. Another challenge, like in addition to reusable rockets, for instance, it's actually financing. Like all this funding, um, yes, like it's coming from the state um policy and government levels and the growing numbers of private sector, but it's also like so expensive to finance everything. Like reusable rockets, for instance, needs so much money, um, RD, and like to make all this research into like practical applications, it needs some time and lots of money. So that is like um um another constraint, like uh a bulk of financing. So private firms often function as subsystem providers, like in China, and remain closely tied to government policies and the contracts, for instance, um, they're part of these mega constellations. But like Chinese satellite internet um ecosystem like is um advancing uh the state-led support of like giving to these growth, right? And um technological and operational structural challenges still limit how fast the country can scale.

Johannes Heller-John 24:10

Talking of challenges, let's talk about Europe because all this development is probably putting Europe in front of some challenges as well. So what are the implications for Europe uh if China and and probably also the US are following uh those plans that they have?

Antonia Hmaidi 24:28

The most immediate concern for Europe probably is its dependence on the US and Starlink and how, for instance, when Trump came into office, there were implications that maybe um the US wouldn't be providing Starlink services to Ukraine at all points. That is the most immediate concern. But especially in a world in which China achieves many of its goals, there are additional concerns um for Europe. And China actually has probably at this point, I would say, better chances of achieving its goals than Europe does, because China is a lot more focused and kind of state-led on these goals, and they invest so much, they um do quite a lot to achieve these goals. Whereas Europe, we're still in the starting stages a lot of the time.

Antonia Hmaidi 25:19

And being a late comer can have advantages because you might be able to be like a fast follower, which means that you don't need to invent a new technology, but you already know this is the technology that will work. I will just need to copy it if you want. But being a late comer can also have many disadvantages. And um, one of them we've talked about frequency allocation. If in five years Europe suddenly needs a lot of frequencies, will they still be available if everyone else has already taken these frequencies?

Antonia Hmaidi 25:49

The other challenge for Europe really is the regulatory system and Starlink being available means that European companies have a lot harder time making money with this. In China, Starlink isn't available, which means Chinese companies have an inbuilt market. Everyone using satellite internet in China needs to use a Chinese company. In Europe, everyone currently is choosing US Starlink because coverage is a lot better. While this is available, there isn't a market for kind of like these European providers. And this is where also Chinese expansions into other countries, especially global south countries, are becoming quite relevant.

Antonia Hmaidi 26:30

China actually has a market problem of its own, which is that satellite internet is less relevant for China than it would be, for instance, for Germany, because China doesn't have dark spots. There's very, very few spots in China where you can't get 5G. And therefore, a lot of people don't have a lot of incentive to actually get satellite internet because they have 5G and a landline. What do they need? Satellite internet. In Germany, there are still dark spots. But where there are a lot of dark spots, especially, is in the global south. And um, especially in less populated areas, satellite internet is a more economical solution, and it is especially a more economical solution in areas where building might be more difficult because it's less developed, the infrastructure isn't there. The infrastructure you need to build for a ground station or even just a receiver for satellite internet is a lot less than for actually building a 5G infrastructure.

Antonia Hmaidi 27:25

Therefore, um one key battleground, if you want, will be um these less developed countries and what they will be doing. And Europe has traditionally seen itself as kind of like a champion of these less developed countries, but China is increasingly taking over this role. And China is offering already 5G to a lot of these countries. So if China was to offer an integrated solution, that would of course be um a challenge to one European telecom provider, especially. Nokia and Ericsson are um, together with Huawei and Seti, the only telecom providers. But it would also be a challenge in terms of values and in terms of information that is being transmitted. Because what we are seeing with Chinese, the internet that China is providing, is a lot of it is China positive in many ways. And the Chinese government is using the internet and the radio station and the TV it provides to developing countries to spread its message. And this message is not necessarily in line with uh European democratic values. This is especially the case in authoritarian regimes that often like to buy Chinese technology because it might come with inbuilt censorship features that European technology wouldn't come with.

Antonia Hmaidi 28:45

So for Europe, there's a lot of concerns in there. One of them is actually also Chinese and Russian cooperation in space that we see expanding, especially with the International Space Station being decommissioned, and with um in some of these areas, Europe not being willing to work with China anymore, they're looking for new partners, and then Russia might be a partner. So if Russia, for instance, is able to use um Chinese satellite internet, then it could actually be a very clear security threat even for the continent.

Altynay Junusova 29:20

Well, something to say about Europe. I think there is a saying from Alice in Wonderland that "if you don't know where you are going any road will get you there". So basically, like for Europe, I think um we added this urgency note like in our report that investing in its own space-based infrastructure is important. And there should be like synergy um between policy and private sector, like in regulatory frameworks and to foster innovation to remain competitive with China and the United States. So, for instance, like the European Space Act has a goal to have more European satellite operators and to have like um champions in the global market, but we need some action.

Altynay Junusova 30:06

And there is an additional strategic dimension like for Europe, for instance, like China's push in reusable rockets basically means that um it is a competitive wake-up call. Like Europe doesn't really have reusable rockets. And uh if China can launch cheaper, faster, and at a large scale uh constellations which will provide you good internet connection, like it could dominate satellite-based services globally, right? And that is something Antonio mentioned, like it's potentially has um also an impact on international standards and the commercial market overall. But it also means that the need for Europe to consider space infrastructure as a strategic and also like a commercial in both ways. So to balance investment in launch um capabilities, satellite constellations, to secure like laser technology and like policy frameworks to m to keep evolving in space economy.

Johannes Heller-John 31:06

So there's a number of things that that Europe can do. I mean, they require commitment, they require money, but they are also necessary if if Europe doesn't want to fall behind. I want to thank you, Antonia, and want to thank you, Altenai, for joining the podcast for providing uh your insights here.

Altynay Junusova 31:23

Thank you. Please check out the full report. There are some spicy details.

Antonia Hmaidi 31:29

Thanks for having us.

Johannes Heller-John 31:31

My pleasure, definitely. And I will put a link to the report in the show notes as well as to the research profiles of Antonia and Altynay. Also want to mention that the report is part of the China Tech Observatory, which tracks China's progress in developing and using global critical technology, and it is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space, and I will put a link to the China Tech Observatory also in the show notes. So a lot to read up upon, and uh definitely a lot to follow up uh with in the months and years to come. Thank you for listening. Until next time. Goodbye.