Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts

January 11, 2023 Al Ahly Pharos
Al Ahly Pharos
Pre-Trading Thoughts
Show Notes

Pitch: Do Not Ignore Laggards; Money Rotation Will Eventually Happen. In 2017, all well-managed company stocks have gone up significantly post-flotation, even the ones that were negatively exposed to a weaker local currency. Some ideas: ORHD, CNFN, EKHOA, CICH, MCRO, QNBA, CIEB, JUFO, ISPH, CANA, CLHO, EAST, ADIB  

Core inflation which strips out volatile items such as food and fuel rose to 24.4% YoY in December from 21.5% a month earlier.

*Main takeaways from the IMF press briefing*

Egypt is receiving USD700 million from the IMF over the course of 2023, with two USD347 million tranches scheduled for March and September.

Egypt faces a USD17 billion financing gap over the next four years.

The government has secured assurances that the USD 28 bn in GCC deposits at the CBE will not mature before the end of the loan program in September 2026.

The CBE will remain committed to a “durably flexible” exchange rate.

Public investment projects will take a backseat.

The government also is committed to more private sector involvement, ending subsidized lending programs, changing local fuel prices in line with movements in the global markets, and introducing tax reforms (details next week).

The World Bank has revised down its growth forecast for Egypt this fiscal year to 4.5%.

The central bank is currently targeting an inflation rate of 7% (± 2%) by 4Q 2024. 

ESRS raised the price of rebars by EGP2,535/ton to EGP25,985/ton (including VAT).

Abu Dhabi Ports company is in talks with the Egyptian government to take over the development and management of the Suez port "Port Tawfik" under a usufruct contract. 

COMI is to launch an 18-month CD, where savers can opt for a one-time payment of 22.5% or a monthly interest rate of 20.0% annualized. 

CNFN targets a 70% growth in its financing portfolio in 2023. From EGP11.36 billion in 2022, with plans to expand in the Gulf in 2023.

ETEL is to receive new frequencies worth USD125 million to support its network within days.

Deputy Finance Minister announced that three foreign entities expressed interest to produce cars in Egypt after the announcement of the production strategy by the government.

The expats' car import scheme will conclude on Tuesday, 14 March. 

Marsa Alam received its first charter flight from Milan's Malpensa Airport yesterday. 

Apex International Energy will acquire shares in six producing oil concessions in the Western Desert from Eni. 

ExxonMobil has acquired two offshore blocks in the Nile Delta, with operations scheduled to begin in 2023.