Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts

January 23, 2023 Al Ahly Pharos
Al Ahly Pharos
Pre-Trading Thoughts
Show Notes

The government has signed a fresh USD1.5 bn financing agreement with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation (ITFC) to fund energy and basic commodities imports.

The Supply Ministry is set to finalize the “fair prices” of a number of food and consumer commodities this month, to clamp down on price gouging amid soaring inflation.

The country needs to invest some USD30 bn into tourism to grow the sector by 25-30% annually between now and 2028. 

The CBE, FRA, and Social Housing Fund are putting together a plan to support real estate finance and boost real estate sales to people living abroad.

Russia is moving towards activating a mechanism to accept payments for grain export deals to Egypt, in its local currency.

Transport Ministry’s plan to hike the price of train tickets gradually over a four-year period has been put on hold by President ElSisi.

The Ministry of Commerce and Industry is considering reducing the prices of land allocated for industrial activity in some Upper Egypt governorates, in order to attract more investments to those areas. 

According to the Minister of Petroleum, installing household gas connections helped reducing LPG consumption from 4.2 million tons to 3.6 million tons, thus reducing the subsidy bill.

JUFO rallied yesterday after the release of the company's founder and former CEO. Despite the rally, and the stock price reaching a 3-year high, the stock still offers a valuation gap of 19% between its current price and our fair value of EGP11.12/share. JUFO is currently trading at a FY23 P/E of 9.9x and an EV/EBITDA of 5.3x.

GB Auto Group has rebranded itself as GB Corp, to create one unified entity, that overlooks GB Auto, GB Capital, GB Logistics, GB Ventures, GB Academy, and the Ghabbour Foundation for Development.

An industry expert announced that locally assembled cars will witness a new 20-25% price increase during the current year, affected by the EGP devaluation, and the rising financing costs and interest rates.

PHAR (FV: EGP50.00, OW) will hold its extraordinary general assembly on 18 February 2023 to decide on increasing the company’s issued capital from EGP991.7 million to EGP1,140.4 million (an increase of EGP148.75 million distributed over 14.87 shares) through a rights issue.

Arab Investment Bank, which is 51% owned by HRHO, achieved 9M22 net profit of EGP401.2 million, compared to EGP7.2 million, at the end of 9M21. 

The chemicals and fertilizers exports council plans to increase the total exports of the sector to USD10 billion in 2023, up from USD8.629 billion in 2022. 

ALCN declared FY21/22 dividends distribution of EGP1.10 per share with a payout ratio of 81.7% and a dividend yield of 5.5% to be distributed on 13 February 2023, with the record date on 8 February 2023.

Tourism company, Travco Group, plans to invest EGP7.0 billion in 2023 to raise its hotel capacity by 13% to 17k rooms.

The New Urban Communities Authority is studying issuing future flow securitization bonds.

Giza General Contracting Company (GGCC) has been rewarded the construction works of utilities worth EGP97.53 million in New Sohag City.

Weekly Commodities Update

Oil prices increased by 2.8% during the last week to close at USD87.63/bbl on Friday, affected by expectations for higher demand from China as it continues to lift COVID-19 restrictions.

Brent, USD/bbl            87.6     2.8%

Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton          631.3   5.3%

Egypt Urea, USD/ton  502.5   0.0%

Polyethylene, USD/ton           1,100.0            0.0%

Polypropylene, USD/ton         975.0   0.0%

Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton       464.9   0.0%

LME Aluminu