Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts

May 30, 2023 Al Ahly Pharos
Al Ahly Pharos
Pre-Trading Thoughts
Show Notes

MPs gave their final approval yesterday to a fresh batch of tax amendments — to add EGP 1.2 billion to state revenues. The bill will be passed to the President to sign into law. 

Investors will be charged the 10% capital gains tax on only 50% of the realized gains made from selling shares in newly-listed companies. This will fall to 25% two years after the passage of the legislation. 

Income made from investments in venture capital funds, real estate investment funds, holding companies, and or equity funds is now subject to a 5-15% capital gains tax. 

FRA has granted the EGX the green light to launch the clearing company for its new futures exchange, which will operate by 4Q2023. 

The Finance Ministry aims to link up with Euroclear before the end of 2023. 

An Australian consortium plans to invest USD875 million to establish a plant for “phosphoric acid” in the economic zone of the Golden Triangle in Safaga, with a total production capacity of 692k tons annually.

Energy China will sign a framework agreement to build a green hydrogen plant in SCZone within two months.

The Egyptian government is now targeting increasing its renewable energy generation capacity to cover 60% of the country's electricity needs by 2040.

ETEL (FV: EGP34.00, OW) reported impressive 1Q23 financial results with net profit at EGP3.81 billion in 1Q23 (+179.1% YoY, +26.7% QoQ); shaped by healthy revenue growth of 48.2%% YoY and 16.3% QoQ, margin expansion; higher investment income from Vodafone of EGP894 million (+182% YoY, +38.2% QoQ). We updated our FV for Telecom Egypt to EGP34.00 per share. ETEL is currently trading at 20223e P/E of 4.0x and EV/Adjusted EBITDA of 2.8x. 

MTIE reported strong 1Q23 net attributable profit of EGP153.1million in 1Q23 (+200% YoY, +20.8% QoQ), on the back of healthy revenues (+27.6% YoY), margin expansion (GPM: +2.1pps YoY, EBITDA margin: +2.4pps YoY), recognition of EGP26.2 million as gain from investments, and FX gains of EGP25.8 million in 1Q23. MTIE is currently trading at an annualized 2023f P/E of 10.9x.

Mopco released neutral 1Q23 bottom line of EGP2.452 billion compared to EGP2.196 billion (+12% QoQ, +17% YoY), due to higher net interest income, FX gains, where Urea prices went down and margin pressure. MFPC is currently trading at 2023 P/E of 6.1x and EV/EBITDA of 3.0x.

EFID released strong 1Q23 attributable net profit recorded EGP399 mn (+145.6% YoY, +16.2% QoQ) backed by healthy profitability and higher interest income along with FX gains.  We upgrade our FV to EGP22.80/share. EFID is trading at FY23 P/E of 8.3x and an EV/EBITDA of 5.7x.

EFID acquires Fancy Foods for an enterprise value of EGP380 million (EGP0.53/share).

AMIC April numbers: Passenger car sales fell 70% y-o-y to 3.8k units, bus sales were down 59% y-o-y and truck sales were down 69%. 

CIRA partners with Think Big and CEA to launch visual arts education program for 150 students.

RAYA reported solid 1Q23 net profit of EGP143 million (+216.7% YoY), on the back of strong revenue growth, GPM expansion, and currency devaluation which bodes well for RCX and Raya Foods. Revenues recorded EGP6.5 billion (+46.1% YoY). RAYA is currently trading at annualized 2023f P/E of 9.1x.

Contact’s 1Q23 bottom-line recorded EGP136 million (-11% y/y, -22% q/q), due to the pressure on margins, the expansion in OPEX, and higher booked provisions in 1Q23. CNFN is trading at multiples of 1.1x P/B23 and 4.8x P/E23 on an ROAE 2023 of 23%.

CNFN intends to securitize EGP10 bn to support growth. 

HRHO’s consumer finance arm vaIU and digital payment app Telda have partnered to enable the users of valU cashback service to redeem through the Telda app. vaIU also intends to securitize more of its portfolio within a month or two, and the firm is reportedly in talks with two banks to secure new loans.

The government is preparing