Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts

June 04, 2023 Al Ahly Pharos
Al Ahly Pharos
Pre-Trading Thoughts
Show Notes

NBE and BM are studying a proposal to offer USD certificates of deposit  with 17% interest rate, with the equivalent value of interest being paid in Egyptian pounds, and another with a return of up to 10%, with interest being paid in US Dollars, while  limiting the right to subscribe to Egyptians with dual nationalities, or those working abroad, or foreigners.

Barclays is lining up a June promotional roadshow for the sale of United Bank.

The government is studying offering additional stakes of 10-15% in SKPC, AMOC, EFIH, and EAST through an accelerated book building process. 

Some 4.5 mn tourists visited Egypt in the first four months of 2023.

ORAS reported 1Q23 attributable net income of USD36.1 million in 1Q23 (+176% YoY, -35.2% QoQ). The annual surge in bottom-line was driven by net forex gains of USD28.4 million during the quarter. Revenue stood at USD805 million (-17.8% YoY, -28.4% QoQ). The drop was primarily driven by a considerable decline in MEA business with the EGP depreciation that diluted translation of Egypt’s operations by around USD335 million during the quarter. ORAS is currently trading at FY23e P/E of 7.5x and EV/EBITDA of 2.2x.

Egyptian National Railways Authority received a number of offers from local and international alliances competing for Cairo Alexandria Trade Logistics Development Project with investments estimated at a range of USD740-1,200 million. Bidders include ORAS, Hassan Allam, and Arab Contractors.

We upgraded our fair value for EGAL to EGP53.58/share, up from EGP39.53/share with an Overweight recommendation to account for: Further currency depreciation which reflects on selling prices and margins, Aluminum cash price levels, higher debt levels, higher cost of capital. We remind you that the revamp of the company’s facilities (strategic investor capital increase), the solar power plant, and/or better electricity pricing are considered significant triggers paving the way for more growth. EGAL is trading at FY23/24e P/E of 3.0x and EV/EBITDA of 2.4x. Dividend yield is 16.9% in FY22/23. 

SVCE announced 1Q23 net loss of EGP37.1 million vs. a net loss of EGP31.2 million in 1Q22. Despite revenue surge, interest expense has eaten up operating profits. 

GDWA recorded a net income after minority interest of EGP141.6 million in 1Q23, surging from EGP10.4 million in 1Q22. Consolidated revenues soared 80% YoY to EGP2.9 billion in 1Q23 triggered mainly by selling price increases that took place recently due to the exchange rate fluctuations. Wires & cables sector showed the highest contribution of 69% of the total revenue, followed by the dairy industry at 16%, and 7% from the paper & packaging sector. 

IDHC released 1Q23 net attributable profit of EGP173 million in 1Q23 (-41.7% YoY, +26.1% QoQ), with annual decline is attributed to: A strong base effect that capped revenue growth (-22.4% YoY, +13.7% QoQ), GPM contraction (-9.6pps YoY, +0.7pps QoQ) on post covid normalization, Higher annual SG&A to sales (+10pps YoY, -3.7pps QoQ), and Higher financing expenses (+29.4% YoY).

IDHC is currently trading at 2023f P/E of 29.4x and EV/EBITDA of 12.9x. We updated our FV to EGP23.05, with equalweight recommendation. 

RMDA acquired 11 cardiometabolic products to tap into five therapeutic areas that have a combined market value of EGP2.2 bn a three-year CAGR of 37%. Rameda plans to add seven new product launches in this area before the end of FY23. 

MNHD (FV: EGP3.16, EW) launched the first phase of its West Assiut project.

PRDC reported 1Q23 revenue of EGP1.7 billion, up 58.0% y/y, and 1Q23 net profit of EGP66.1 million, compared to 1Q22 net loss of EGP0.6 million.

Samsung Electronics plans to establish a new factory for smartphone assembly in its industrial complex in Beni Suef in 4Q23.  

Egypt wants to position East Port Said as a hub for the automotive industry, w