Pre-Trading Thoughts

Amid the devastating Israeli war on Gaza, the IMF is considering expanding Egypt's USD3 billion loan program by an unspecified amount.

Egypt is preparing to repay USD-denominated Eurobonds tomorrow, Monday, worth USD500 million, which were issued in 2019 for a period of 5 years, with a coupon interest of 4.5%.

Egypt's five-year CDS rates retreated to 14.12% compared to 15.58% recorded on 10 November.

The Supply Ministry has tapped into its reserves to help fill the gap in sugar supply that pushed prices to soar up to EGP40 per kilo from their usual EGP27.

The National Tunnels Authority plans to offer seven major commercial areas to the private sector before 1H2024 ends, to be utilized for 30 years.

The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company signed an MoU with the Belgian Jean de Nal to study a project to export renewable energy from Egypt to Europe. 

TMGH (FV: EGP42.95, OW) reported 3Q23 results. Net profit in 3Q23 grew 26.6% y/y and 38.3% q/q to EGP1.1 billion, bringing 9M23 net profit up 34.2% y/y to EGP2.7 billion. We raised our FV from EGP22.55/share to EGP42.95/share.

EGTS reported 3Q23 results. Net profit in 3Q23 increased 482.6% y/y to EGP75.2 million, bringing 9M23 net profit to EGP23.1 million, compared to 9M22 net loss of EGP64.3 million.

We upgraded our FV for AMOC to EGP12.00/share. AMOC is currently trading at a FY23/24f PE of 5.7x and EV/EBITDA of 3.2x.

OPEC+ is reportedly considering whether further oil production cuts are needed when it meets later this month, Reuters writes. 

The Export Council for Medical Industries is lobbying for a USD300 million swap agreement that would see Egypt receive oil from Venezuela in return for made-in-Egypt meds. 

The government finalized the sale of a 30% stake in EAST (FV: EGP38.7, OW) for USD625 million to  Global Investment Holding (GIH). EAST is currently trading at a FY23/24 P/E of 5.5x and and EV/EBITDA of 4.4x.

Minister of Supply will hold a meeting tomorrow with the concerned personnel in regards to regulating sugar prices and inventory. 

COMI is getting a USD150 million subordinated loan from EBRD to strengthen its tier II capital, support growth, and protect it from external economic shocks.

Global Auto Group (GAG), the agent and importer for BMW and Mini in Egypt, signed a binding framework agreement with the Madbouly government to assemble cars locally.

GB Lease is planning a securitization plan of EGP1.7 billion in December, according to local press.

IDHC reported net attributable profit recorded EGP178 million in 3Q23, an increase of 250.8% QoQ and compared to net loss of EGP18 million in 3Q22. IDHC is currently trading at 2024f P/E of 13.7x and EV/EBITDA of 7.2x.

MCRO reported 3Q23 financial results recording net profit of EGP69 million (+18.3% YoY, 245.5% QoQ).

Hilton Hotels & Resorts inked a contract with Egypt-focused Emirati real estate developer, Amazon Developments, to establish a hotel inside a tower it is constructing in the New Administrative Capital. 

EgyptAir is running direct flights between Cairo and Shanghai with three weekly flights, bringing the total number of weekly EgyptAir flights to China to 16.