Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts

January 29, 2024 Al Ahly Pharos
Al Ahly Pharos
Pre-Trading Thoughts
Show Notes

The CBE's MPC is meeting on Thursday, February 1st, to decide on interest rates for the first time in 2024. We reiterate our view that the MPC might prefer to keep rates unchanged as long as stability still prevails on the currency front. Inflation readings have been capitalizing on favorable base effect recently. Besides, we believe any possible hike would be of little benefit compared to its fiscal costs.

Prime Minister has signed off on a bill extending the expat car import scheme for three months starting today.

The Egyptian Stock Exchange is out with its development strategy for the current year, laying out a list of changes and reforms to overhaul trading, add more companies, and increase liquidity.

The CEO of Centamin Egypt said that Egypt’s share of the Sukari mine’s production last year amounted to USD130 million.

Egypt will inaugurate six new silos in different areas of the country during the current year at an investment cost of USD145.6 million.

AMOC released 2Q23/24 financial indicators. Net profit declined by 19% YoY (-10% QoQ) to EGP370 million in 2Q23/24. On a half-year basis, net income dropped 8% YoY to EGP782 million in 1H23/24. AMOC is currently trading at a 2023/2024e PE of 6.5x and EV/EBITDA of 3.8x.

MICH posted a 0.2% YoY growth in 1H23/24 net profit recording EGP281.1 million.

MICH's BoD decided to increase the company's issued and paid-in capital from EGP292.5 million to EGP438.75 million. The increase will be financed from FY22/23 profits through the distribution of free shares.

COMI has issued the first social sustainability securitization bonds worth EGP3.806 billion for Tasaheel Finance, a subsidiary of MNT Halan.

The FRA is giving insurance firms 90 days to abide by recent regulatory amendments prohibiting insurance brokerage firms’ agents from collecting premiums or any other fees from policyholders in cash or through transfers to their personal bank accounts.

EBRD poured EUR600-700 million in the Egyptian banking sector in 2023. The funds were given to seven local banks directed mainly towards supporting SMEs.

The CBE is currently cooperating with the National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority and the Egyptian Credit Bureau “i-Score” to develop the technical settings for a digital lending project based on behavioral assessment of customers. 

Egypt’s exports of cement increased by 14% YoY in FY23 to reach USD770 million.

CSAG will increase its capital to EGP300 million, an increase of EGP100 million, by issuing 1 million bonus shares.

Turkish home appliances retailer Beko is in line for a senior loan of up to USD50 million from EBRD to finance its USD100 million home appliance factory in the 10th of Ramadan industrial zone. 

Weekly Commodities Update

 |   | Last Price | WoW Change, %
| Brent, USD/bbl | 83.6 | 6.4%
| Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 416 | 8.0%
| Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 390 | 4.0%
| Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,050 | 1.9%
| Polypropylene, USD/ton | 950 | 1.0%
| Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 381 | 1.0%
| LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,238 | 5.4%
| Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,136 | 0.2%
| Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 127 | -0.7%
| SMP, USD/MT | 2,638 | 1.0%
| Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference