Al Ahly Pharos

Pre-Trading Thoughts

April 15, 2024 Al Ahly Pharos
Al Ahly Pharos
Pre-Trading Thoughts
Show Notes

The CBE released balance of payments (BoP) data for 1HFY2023/24, which is not yet reflecting the effect of the EGP devaluation nor any massive FDI deals or fundings agreed upon during 1Q2024. 

Annual urban inflation receded to 33.3% YoY in March, down from of 35.7% in February.  Monthly urban inflation dropped to 1% MoM from the record high of 11.4% recorded in February. 

The EU on Friday said it would provide Egypt with EUR1 billion (USD1.07 billion) in short-term financial aid to help stabilize the country's economy.

Three exchange companies affiliated with the three largest government banks attracted FX amounting to EGP12.97 billion since the liberalization of the exchange rate early March.

The World Bank is studying lending Egypt USD700 million to support a resilient, green, and competitive economy.

The EBRD approved the provision of a long-term senior loan of up to USD140 million (c. EUR 129 million) to finance the acquisition of the Gabal El Zeit windfarm.

The government allocated EGP858 billion to the education sector in the next fiscal year’s draft budget, up 45% y-o-y. Healthcare will see a nearly 25% increase in the draft budget, with EGP496 billion allocated to the sector. Social protection is set for a 20% increase, with EGP636 billion earmarked in the coming fiscal year’s draft budget.

EGAS is looking to import no less than one LNG shipment a month until July or August in efforts to prevent a repeat of last year’s rolling blackouts. 

The Minister of Finance said that the overall budget deficit during 9MFY2023/24 declined to 5.42%, compared to 6.2% during the same period of the last fiscal year. A primary surplus of 3% of GDP was recorded at a value of EGP416 billion.

EAST has raised the prices of cigarettes by an average of 12%, which was put into action starting Sunday, 14 April 2024. 

JUFO released 4Q23 full financials. Attributable net profit recorded EGP142 million in 4Q23 (-13.6%, YoY, -56.1% QoQ). FY23 net profit recorded EGP1,021 million (+60.1% YoY). JUFO is currently trading at a FY24f P/E of 9.4x and an EV/EBITDA of 5.0x.

QNBA recorded a strong set of results with 1Q24 net profit post-minority interest recording EGP7,042 million (+90% q/q, +49% y/y). The stock is currently trading at 2024 multiples of P/B of 0.8x and P/E of 3.5x.

Africa’s largest lender, Standard Bank Group, will set up a new representative office in Egypt by the end of the year.

According to local media sources, financial leasing companies are facing difficulties in accessing debt markets after the recent controls issued by the CBE to regulate banks’ financing to the sector. 

EKHO will distribute cash dividends of USD0.06/share on 30 April 2024 to shareholders on record on 24 April 2024, implying a dividend yield of 6.7%.

Oil prices, which hit a six-month high on Friday, might rise on Monday after Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend. Brent crude reached USD92.18/bbl on Friday, the highest since October. For the week, Brent declined 0.8% to settle at USD90.45/bbl. 

According to local media, PHAR aims to export to about 11 new countries by 2027.

According to local media, EBRD will provide MNT-Halan microfinance subsidiary Tasaheel Finance with EGP700 million to on-lend to women-run SMEs in Egypt.