Retail Heat Map: Target’s Travails, Temu and Shein Spiral, Liverpool Liberates Nordstrom, and the Prime Day Delay

Carol's back with another Retail Heat Map episode, connecting the dots between seemingly random retail headlines to reveal the bigger patterns reshaping retail. From Target's operational disasters and identity crisis to Netflix's ambitious physical retail gambit to Temu and Shein’s spiral to Mexico's cross-border rescue mission, these aren't isolated stories – they're collision points where old retail strategies are meeting new market realities. 

Drawing from her recent media commentary and expert analysis, Carol reveals three major shifts happening right now: The identity crisis hitting some of retail’s biggest players, massive shifts in consumer behavior that nobody saw coming, and a global market deal that is completely rewriting the rules (in a good way). 

While some retailers struggle with basic execution and strategic drift, others are making billion-dollar bets on cross-border innovation that could reshape North American commerce.

Key takeaways:

• Vision beats operations every time – Target's apparel chaos and leadership drift prove that without clear vision operational fixes are futile 
• Consumer behavior has fundamentally shifted – Amazon's "record" Prime Day still felt disappointing as consumers kicked into treasure-hunting mode.
• Mexican retail is hitting high notes – El Puerto de Liverpool’s grande investment in Nordstrom validates Mexican retail’s strength and shuts off Wall Street’s glare.
• Resource-eating media might hamper merchandising hopes – Netflix's retail gamble has built-in advantages but Tik Tok and YouTube got to the good stuff first.

The retailers winning right now recognize that collision isn't always destruction – sometimes it's the force that creates something completely new (and better). 

Want to be a guest on Spieckerman Speaks Retail?
Contact team@spieckermanretail.com
Check out more of Carol's retail insights and updates
Follow Carol on LinkedIn
Follow Carol on Twitter

Transcript

Hey everyone. Welcome to Spieckerman Speaks Retail with me, Carol Spieckerman. I help retail companies sharpen their market positioning so they can get credit for the great stuff they're already doing and accelerate growth. Through my workshops, advisory services, and thought leadership platforms, we’ll bridge the gap between where retail's headed next and how you fit into that future.

Here on the podcast, I curate fresh takes on where retail's going next through my retail trajectories and interviews with experts who help us chart the course. 

Welcome back to another tetail heat map episode where I connect the dots between those seemingly random retail headlines that keep hitting your inbox. These are the stories that are early signals of the strategies that'll survive and those that are about to crash and burn. 

Since we were last together, the retail landscape has been positively buzzing and, as usual, I've been right in the thick of it and fielding calls from reporters around the globe.

I'm weighing in on everything from Target's, unforced errors to Amazon's early Prime Day reality check, to Netflix diving headfirst into physical retail, and a Mexican retailer showing us a thing or two about how making big bets on strategic cross-border partnerships can be a winning strategy. 

In today's heat map, we're going to talk all about how these stories boil down to three collision points that are reshaping how we think about retail success. The identity crisis hitting some of retail's biggest players, the massive shifts in consumer behavior that no one saw coming, and some global market deals that are completely rewriting the rules…in a good way. 

Let's start with what might be one of the most painful examples of strategic drift in retail today. Target. With Target's latest existential struggles and caught on tape blunders. It's clear we're not just talking about isolated incidents anymore, and it's all adding up to something not good. The Daily Mail recently covered Target's apparel sections turning into disaster zones with merchandise scattered on floors and clothing racks that look like they were hit by a tornado.

Target's apparel, merchandising, and maintenance issues have been a problem for years, and I think Target's actually been getting a pass on it. But now it's part of a series of unforced errors, from wildly reported checkout staffing problems, to disastrous DEI, flake-outs, and Target leadership still not reading the room.

But back to that merchandising mess. This isn't just about housekeeping, it's a strategic breakdown that's undermining Target's core brand promise in one of its most important categories. Because when shoppers are literally shopping off the floor, it craters Target’s private label investments and designer partnerships, both of which have always been central to their value proposition, but even more so now.

These initiatives are at the top of the list to drive the $15 billion in sales growth that Target says will happen by 2030. But what's the point of creating all these brands and partnerships if they lose their distinct identities right after they hit the floor? Literally! But what's really telling is how this apparel chaos creates a jarring disconnect with the rest of the store's presentations.

The Ulta Beauty sections are usually pristine. Grocery and home are generally organized and easy to shop. So the contrast makes clear just how fixable and inexcusable this problem really is. But contrary to common wisdom, the deeper issue isn't operational. In a recent Retail Wire discussion, I summed it up in three words: Lack of vision. Target needs a completely new vision, not a rehash of “Tarzhay,” not more splashy brand partnerships, but a real vision for how they'll batten down the hatches and survive in the midst of unprecedented challenge and change. 

All retailers are in a “be careful what you wish for” situation right now. There are so many options, so many exciting technologies to tap. It's really mind boggling, and if retail leaders are honest, they'll admit that it's also kind of overwhelming. But the retail leaders of tomorrow can't afford to be paralyzed as they ponder the possibilities, they've got to start setting clear priorities, and they’ve got to do it knowing that there aren't any templates.

All of this is great news for curious self-aware leaders who are ready to break new ground – those who are willing to step out and fail fast, but only after they've nailed the fundamentals. And frankly, I don't think that describes Target under Brian Cornell's leadership. The clock is ticking, and I don't expect him to go quietly when that final alarm goes off.

Target and all retailers are in a tough spot, though because those visionary new school retail leaders of tomorrow are still being created. So replacing Cornell or any retail leader these days could feel like high-risk behavior. But those with vision will build a bench in the meantime. Walmart just made a major hire bringing in a heavy hitter with a string of high-octane roles at Meta, Uber, and Instacart to head up a dedicated AI effort.

You’ve got to know that that cost a pretty penny because they poached him from Instacart. But Doug McMillon gets it that he's gotta compete hard for the talent that will secure Walmart's future. It isn't all about him, so staying the course and keeping the blinders on isn't an option for Target. Courage needs to replace denial and deflection…and soon.

Target’s struggles are a perfect example of what happens when companies try to be everything to everyone without excelling at anything specific. We're finding out right now just how little goodwill Target has left in the bank. It's certainly not enough to offset the growing customer and associate outrage that threatens to derail its lofty goals.

But despite all of this, I'm rooting hard for Target because we need strong value-based retailers on the scene, and I'd much rather see Target succeed than be right about some of my gloomier predictions. 

But meanwhile, we've got Netflix diving into physical retail with their Netflix House concept. The drumbeat of “newness, newness, newness” has only gotten louder in retail and with its steady rotation of relatable characters and series franchises, Netflix has that newness mandate nailed. But wheather Netflix has the chops to actually run retail stores? That's the big question, but at its core, Netflix is a master brand housing a diverse portfolio of sub-brands. Some are evergreen, others are more niche. But in that sense, they're no different from any other brand that diversifies through licensing and owned retail.

And owned retail is still the best way to tell your story rather than counting on other retailers to like your stuff. So if anything, Netflix is way ahead of the crowd with its pre-targeted, ready-made brand portfolio, its massive viewing audience, and constant social media presence. It removes a ton of risk right off the bat.

No question about it, Netflix has a clear content productization advantage over most brands. The issue is they're still locked into an old-school resource-intensive model when it comes to content creation and monetization. It's the difference between revenue going to producers, catering companies, gaffers, and showrunners, or popping some of those profits directly into creators’ pockets.

I'll choose door number two every time, but YouTube and TikTok already have very deep stakes in the ground in these more efficient models. Netflix’s retail move is really the flip side of Target's crisis. While Target's identity seems to be slipping away, Netflix is trying to extend theirs in completely new territory.

We'll see just how much more life is left in that cumbersome content creation model that's supposed to drive all of it. But in the meantime, I hope Netflix avoids the temptation to create characters and storylines based on future merchandising opportunities, or at least that they're better at hiding it than companies like Disney and some others that have turned it into a lather, rinse, repeat machine.

Let's talk about those consumer spending shifts. Though my early read on Amazon's Prime Day was cautious, I told reporters that, in all fairness, Prime Day performance was way too early to call, especially after one day and the fact that this year's event was extended for four days. I forecasted an eleventh-hour business blast.

Well, the results are in, and let's just say it's complicated. Amazon claims that 2025 was their biggest Prime Day event ever with record sales, but this year they didn't release the specific item counts. The last time Amazon skipped that metric was in 2020 when nothing normal was happening anywhere in retail.

Amazon's overall US online sales hit $24.1 billion over the four days of the event. That's up 30% year over year. Basically, two Black Fridays' worth of spending. Sounds impressive, right? But when you dig deeper, some sellers saw that their Amazon sales were plunging 41% on the first day compared to last year.

Consumer confidence is down, clouds of uncertainty still loom, and shoppers are in a holding pattern waiting to see which way the wind blows. Two-thirds of Prime Day purchases were under $20, with an average spend of just $24.59 per item. That's not premium shopping, folks. That's necessity buying with extreme caution and price sensitivity.

So my prediction actually came true. The extended four-day format changed shopping behavior in ways I don't think Amazon anticipated. Because, instead of creating urgency, it encouraged treasure hunting. Consumers are loading up their shopping carts, but delaying pulling the trigger to see if better deals are ahead, or more accurately, delaying their purchases, knowing that better deals are on the way.

I'm betting that what we see in the rearview mirror with Prime Day is a taste of what's around the corner for the holiday shopping season. Shoppers know that the deals will only get better from here. 

The shift in consumer behavior is impacting grocery shopping patterns, too. When I was asked why younger shoppers increasingly favor Walmart for groceries, my response was, “Let me count the ways.” 

Millennials and Gen Z are more value-conscious, and they're less brand loyal than previous generations. Economic uncertainty and rising costs are only amplifying that. Walmart is answering the call by bringing on the value, quality, and innovation with brand launches like BetterGoods, and it's a one-stop shop that saves on gas and kills with convenience. They're staying top of mind through active TikTok presence, showcasing brand launches, deals, and influencer-backed buzz.

That's quite the multi-pronged assault, and it proves that once again, Walmart isn't playing. They're intentionally propping up their grocery proposition to woo and retain those younger shoppers, knowing that groceries are the gateway to more profitable categories. Walmart is determined to keep that shopper pipeline filled, and as usual, they're very comfortable playing a long game and looking at cumulative customer value over time. They're leaving nothing to chance.

But nothing illustrates the brutal reality of today's market dynamics better than what's happening with Temu and Shein. When the Daily Mail asked me about how tariffs are affecting this dynamic duo, I had to point out that they're in a predicament of their own making. Both platforms have lowered the pricing floor and raised consumers' expectations for value, and it's coming back to bite them.

The consumer exodus that followed tariff hikes, the elimination of the de minimis exemption, and those subsequent price increase attempts from both platforms revealed just how vulnerable their business models really are. But the broader lesson here is that when you build your entire strategy around unsustainably low prices, you're building on quicksand and ruining it for everyone else in the process. You've trained customers that price is the only thing you've got going. 

So, with tariff tremors rumbling through the rest of the year, retailers across all value tiers are facing a seriously bumpy Q4. 

On the bright side, Mexico's retail scene is absolutely on fire right now, and it's creating a lot of buzz, and for reasons that go way beyond the usual headlines about tariffs and trade tensions.

I was in Mexico a couple of months ago presenting to a business group, and you know me, I always do a retail safari wherever I travel. So there I was wandering through a Liverpool department store, and I see this well-dressed associate, literally steaming every wrinkle out of a shirt right in the middle of the sales floor.

At the time, I thought, “Wow, that is some old school retail detail, kind of like you used to see in Nordstrom.” Well, little did I know I was witnessing an operational omen because in May, El Puerto de Liverpool, partnered with the Nordstrom family to realize its years-long dream to take the company private and a $6.25 billion deal.

In my latest Retail Gets Deep blog article, I went in-depth about how Liverpool is bringing more than bucks to Nordstrom. Liverpool already had a 9.9% passive stake in Nordstrom as one of its biggest shareholders. So instead of the typical buy or build decision, they actually created a bridge-to-buy strategy that gives both companies superpowers they couldn't build alone. This is Mexican retail, basically saying, “Hold my cerveza, I'll show you how it's done.”

Time Magazine recognized Liverpool as one of the world's best companies based on everything from employee satisfaction to financial performance. That's a sweet fit with Nordstrom. Liverpool gets front row seats to American retail operations, and Nordstrom gets to escape that quarterly earnings grind that's been wearing down so many US retailers.

Not to mention the fact that between 2019 and 2022, there was almost a 70% increase in Americans moving to Mexico. I'm not saying that Liverpool's plotting an elaborate strategy to woo American expats, though that would be brilliant and surely not lost on Liverpool as a long-term growth driver. But the fact is Liverpool already knows how to serve Americans in Mexican markets, but now it's getting a glimpse of how to serve American retail in American markets. Nordstrom's getting ahead of the department store downward spiral, and averting the glare of Wall Street that could hobble its most ambitious plans. For Liverpool, it's a model for international expansion without the usual risk of building from scratch or making solo bets on foreign markets.

Looking at Mexico's overall bright retail future ANTAD, which is Mexico's National Association of Department and Self-Service Stores, just announced that they're investing $3 billion in Mexico's retail sector across a broad spectrum of initiatives. Everything from store modernization to technology, training, and boosting made-in-Mexico products.

That's a 30% increase in investment over last year. ANTAD represents 157 retail chains that operate over 50,000 stores nationwide. 96% of Mexicans visit one of their member stores at least once a month. Then you've got AMVO, the Mexican Association of Online Sales Reporting that Mexico's e-commerce sector reached a total value of $39.3 billion in 2024.

That's a 20% increase over the previous year. Digital buyer penetration in Mexico reached 84% scorching the global average of 60% and topping hot markets like China and India. Clearly Mexican retailers are playing offense, and they're shifting the conversation around Mexico being a manufacturing hub.

Mexican companies are going toe to toe with global retail leaders and reshaping North American commerce. They're not retreating. They're doubling down, and I have a feeling this is just the beginning. 

So there's your heat map to kick off August, we've got Target struggling with basic execution while losing strategic direction, digital entertainment, powerhouses betting big on physical retail, Amazon discovering that even record-breaking events can feel shaky when consumer behavior shifts. And Mexico showing everyone how strategic partnerships can create real synergy and value, not just headlines. 

Clearly, the strategies that worked even two years ago were getting stress tested by forces no one fully anticipated. So we're not just seeing individual company struggles or successes. We're watching the collision between old retail thinking and new market realities and opportunities. Some companies will emerge stronger after impact, but others will sit in the wreckage. Winning retailers know that this collision doesn't always result in destruction. Sometimes the force creates something completely new and even better. 

Thank you for listening in today, and I hope you enjoyed the episode. If you did, please like, share, and subscribe. You can invite me to your organization or event to bring conversations like this to life in your spaces. This is what I do: B2B, coaching, training, and executive consulting.

If it has to do with retail thought leadership, B2B, market positioning, or business development, it's probably something I can help you with. If you're interested in learning how we can work together, reach out to me at Spickermanretail.com or email team@spieckermanretail.com to book a discovery call. Until next time, keep speaking retail.