Rates on hold, but likes for hikes

This week’s episode focuses on a pivotal week for global central banks as markets shift attention away from geopolitical headlines in the Middle East and back toward monetary policy. The discussion covers the first Federal Reserve meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the Bank of England’s latest decision, the ECB outlook, and implications for global rates markets.

 Key takeaways:

* The Fed turned more hawkish in Warsh’s first meeting, despite no change in rates. Warsh avoided giving forward guidance, but the committee’s dot plot shifted higher, leading markets to price in rate hikes sooner than previously expected.

* Warsh announced five Fed task forces to review communications, balance sheet strategy, data usage, productivity trends, and the inflation framework. While these could eventually support a more dovish policy, they are unlikely to affect near-term decisions.

* We now forecast 50bps of cuts in the US in 2027 rather than beginning in late 2026.

 * The Bank of England left policy unchanged and provided little new guidance, but persistent domestic inflation pressures and strong wage growth should not be overlooked.

* The ECB’s June rate hike is viewed as an insurance move rather than the start of an aggressive tightening cycle, with falling oil prices reducing the case for further hikes.

Host: Imogen Bachra (Head of Economics and Markets Strategy)

Guests: Ian VanderHorn (Macro Strategist) and Oriane Parmentier (European Rates Strategist)

This episode was recorded on 18 June 2026.

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