Are markets too quick to price more rate hikes?

Oil prices are back in focus, markets are repricing central bank risk, and politics is adding another layer of uncertainty across Europe and the UK. In this episode of Bondcast, Imogen Bachra, Deepika Dayal and Oriane Parmentier discuss whether markets are moving too quickly to price further rate hikes – and what investors should watch next.

In this episode, we discuss:

• Middle East tensions and oil prices: why renewed geopolitical risk has pushed markets to reassess inflation and rate expectations.
• ECB pricing: whether recent euro rates repricing has gone too far, and why July still looks too soon for a policy shift.
• Fed outlook: why short-term oil moves may complicate the picture, but still leave the Fed in wait-and-see mode.
• US inflation and growth: why higher oil prices could act as both an inflation impulse and a tax on the consumer.
• Bank of England risks: why the UK still faces the clearest upside risk to policy rates, even if hikes look more likely later than sooner.
• France and OATs: what Marine Le Pen’s 2027 election intentions mean for French political risk and bond spreads.
• UK politics and gilts: why fiscal policy, borrowing risks and autumn policy announcements may matter more than near-term leadership headlines.
• Leverage ratio framework: what the Bank of England’s latest consultation could mean for bank demand for gilts — and why it may not be a game changer yet.

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This episode was recorded on 9 July 2026, and captions are automatically generated.

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