Bondcast - The Rates Podcast
In this weekly podcast series, Imogen Bachra along with the NatWest Markets team of rates & markets specialists help investment professionals shape their portfolio views on fixed income, learn how the biggest themes, trends, and events affect bond performance, and get deeper insight into rates markets including the latest analysis & research from the NatWest team.
Bondcast - The Rates Podcast
Bondcast Speakers' Corner: Geopolitics and markets in summer '26
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In this special edition of Bondcast Speakers' Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group International Advisor Scott Livingstone to examine the geopolitical landscape and what it could mean for rates markets over the months and years ahead.
Recorded against the backdrop of renewed strikes in the Middle East, Scott discusses why he still believes the current tensions represent a “bumpy off-ramp” rather than the start of a broader regional war, while highlighting the key political and military developments investors should monitor.
The conversation then broadens to explore the US-China relationship, Taiwan, Europe’s strategic position, emerging geopolitical winners, and the underappreciated risks that could shape global markets beyond today’s headlines.
Key takeaways:
* A volatile path to de-escalation: neither the US nor Iran has the appetite for full-scale conflict, but investors should expect an extended period of uncertainty rather than a swift resolution.
* Political calendars matter: US mid-terms, Israel’s elections and domestic political considerations will increasingly shape geopolitical decision-making.
* Taiwan remains a long-term risk: While China’s military modernisation continues, domestic political events in both China and Taiwan may make 2028 a more consequential year than 2027.
* Europe faces strategic choices: As global power becomes increasingly concentrated, Europe must decide what role it wants within a changing international order.
* Middle powers could be winners: Countries such as India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey may benefit from pursuing pragmatic, multi-aligned foreign policies amid growing geopolitical fragmentation.
* Technology is reshaping geopolitics: Competition over semiconductors, resilient supply chains and increasingly, space infrastructure, is becoming just as strategically important as traditional energy security.
This episode was recorded on 10 July 2026.
The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.
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