Speakers' Corner: What to make of the 2026 energy price shock?

The latest escalation in the Middle East has reignited concerns over higher energy prices, inflation and the outlook for UK growth. But is this shock really comparable to the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022?

In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Group Chief Economist Seb Burnside to examine how UK consumers and businesses are responding to renewed energy price pressures. Drawing on NatWest’s unique customer data, Seb explains why this time looks fundamentally different from 2022, why households have proved more resilient than expected, and why the biggest risks may lie in business confidence and investment rather than consumer spending.

Key takeaways

* The latest energy shock is significantly smaller than the 2022 crisis.
* Businesses are passing higher costs through more quickly than before.
* Consumers have adapted by reducing fuel consumption rather than simply paying higher prices.
* Mortgage refinancing remains manageable thanks to several years of wage growth.
* Inflation remains a greater concern than an immediate collapse in growth.
* The biggest risk is that prolonged geopolitical uncertainty delays hiring and investment.
* The UK economy continues to demonstrate greater resilience than many expected.

Host: Imogen Bachra, Head of Economics and Markets Strategy
Guest: Seb Burnside, Chief Economist, NatWest Group

This episode was recorded on 15 July 2026