NBA and NHL Playoffs are in High Gear | Episode 73

The playoffs are in high gear and the boys try to keep the good times going with a 3-1 ATS record from their last pod, bringing the totals to 28-18 ATS in the Playoffs/Play-In and 40-22-1 ATS overall in the NBA.  Betting analyst Matt Russell also deep dives into the NHL Playoff betting market 

Transcript

DRF Sports: 0:01

Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports, but smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready Set bet.

Sheldon: 0:27

This is the DRF sports podcast episode 73. Don't forget to like follow and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sheldon Alexander and we are fully into playoff mode the Stanley Cup playoffs are underway. The NBA second round is into high gear and the record against the spread on the pod still chugging along. As always, we will try to hand out pics for every single up and coming NBA playoff game, just to keep the wave going. And just for the record, let's give out the record. We are three in one record against the spread from Monday's pod 28 and 18 against the spread from the play in tournament to the playoffs and 4022 and one against the spread on the NBA picks. I've given out on this BOD since we made the switch after the NFL season. We're just trying to keep everything rolling again. 4022 and one let's go. More on that in a sec. But first, hey, Iowa DRF sports book is sending all parlays to the move, start cashing in with DRF sports books 22% profit booths for all MLB NBA or NHL parlays. The MLB season is here and the law with the NBA playoffs and the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs. So it's time to celebrate and we want to boost your profits. So head over to the DRF sports book now and start betting must be physically present in Iowa to wager so as mentioned, we will touch on every single NBA series and discuss where it was where it is and where it could be going. I'll have game three picks for all four games all four series that are still going on in the NBA plus Matt stops by with his Stanley Cup playoffs Deep Dive. We got you covered for everything going on in the playoffs on this episode and the DRF podcast still given out hits because that's what we do and luckily for y'all that starts right about now. Well the NBA Playoffs continue to be the gift that keeps on giving in this to DRF sports podcast continues to keep on giving his well with our guide Matt Russell stopping by to bless us with some cool great goodness. Matt, how you doing how the playoffs been treating me since the last time we spoke.

Matt: 2:52

I'm good dodged a bullet by almost piling back in on the Sixers last night. But luckily Doc Rivers his predictably unpredictable illness allowed me to dodge a potential bullet on a plus eight Doc Rivers incredible stuff. DeAndre Jordan is his guy. What can you possibly say about that? Yeah, but this is the best man. I mean, I remember what it was for and for both double first rounds like I don't I can't even wrap my head around that because two and four with two basketball games and two are in for hockey games tonight. Just an absolute roller coaster of emotion.

Sheldon: 3:27

Well, I mean, might I remind you of a certain Doc Rivers and the Clippers using a chair to lock DeAndre Jordan in his house. So that sign loves MAVs Those were the days right those are the days DeAndre Jordan used to be like an all NBA guy. I mean, that was a long time ago, probably as long ago as it actually was. But here we used to. As mentioned the wave though continues is went three in one on the pot on Monday, from the picks given out on this podcast three and one against the spread, bringing the total record to 28 and 18 against the spread and the play in slash playoffs. 4022 and one against the spread NBA picks given out on this pod. We like to keep the roll going. And I'm going to try to just keep throwing the pics out there while we keep going here. You know like try to just stay the course keep things going. So let's get to it. The Miami Heat lead there series two nothing over a Joelle and beadless Sixers squad falling 119 103 Last Wednesday night series shifts to Philly on Friday. Still no word on if Embiid will play. But Doc said in his postgame. He hasn't gone through any of the protocols yet. Right. So he doesn't he hasn't gone through like Sorry, he hasn't completed like any of the things that he needs to complete to be able to play yet and again, I mean, as we're recording this, it's Thursday, Chris Haynes in his postgame on TNT said that he texted with Joelle Embiid on Wednesday, and Embiid said it was the first day he was able to use a phone because the light was too bright. He wasn't able to like look at his phone before Wednesday. Now, with all that said, we are familiar with the work of Joelle and bead. And, you know, I got bubble guts. And you know, I had diarrhea, and I didn't sleep last. We've heard all these stories from Joel Embiid. Before, likes to add a little extra spice onto his injuries. Not saying he's not hurt. He's just adding a little extra spice. My guess is that Joe LMB does play. And honestly, it doesn't matter. I think he's to hurt at this point. Like, whether you're talking orbital bone, whether you're talking to the finger stuff like I wouldn't like Joellen beat in the Sixers in this series healthy Joellen being banged up or not playing, no chance been riding the heat on this series. So far, you head into Saturday, or sort of Friday's game, the line of Sixers minus one, which is a very interesting line considering Wait, if there's no joy and B, there's nothing that tells me the Sixers have any chance in this series. I don't know how this goes past five with or without the injured Joellen bead. So I'm still on the heat. Give me the heat plus one in this next game three Friday night in Philadelphia. So I

Matt: 6:17

can't I can't even tempt you with some plus 600 on the series price for for the 70 Sixers can't even attempt to their 0% chance. Just looking at this line real quick. Right? So this is a halfway I think line this is a lean towards a beat not being in which sounds based on what you've just nicely laid out for us. Sounds about right, because we had a minus eight situation with the heat. Right you flip home court, I don't think we're giving four points for heat home Miami home court advantage, I don't think I'm ready to get four points for a Philadelphia home court advantage. So like we can't get to pick them. Right, we can't get to pick them and less Embiid is back. But if and beat his back, he certainly means more than 1.2 points, three points, right, like we're probably looking at closer to you know, as we evaluated it, like what a Luka dodge, for example, is worth which you know, appears to be something along the lines of six to six and a half points. So, you know, if Embiid was back, then we would have a couple extra points here, right, we would have a Philadelphia minus three type of situation, this would be a lot like some of these other series that go from or even just the other one in the east that go from Boston minus four to Milwaukee minus three, right like that would be the toggle back and forth. Right. Now obviously, they're in a hole from a series standpoint where they need to win four out of the next five games. And that's obviously not probably not going to happen, especially if Embiid doesn't play here. So just sort of worth worth mentioning that once we get a clearer picture of Embiid, whether he's in or out, it could go one way or another. So if you don't think Embiid is going to play I grabbed the heat right now. But essentially a pickup, knowing that once that gets, you know, announced, he's off, they're obviously gonna go would probably do a minus to something along those lines, would that even matter in the end, right? You don't seem to think that it even would if it goes to minus two with NBC being announced as out. So listen, I this, this feels to me like just sort of steer clear type of thing. But if you were going to get tempted into the Sixers, I think you would have to just kind of go all the way but as far as just grab the plus 600 hope they win this next game. And if they win this next game, right, it's an indicator that they'll probably be favored in the next game. And then you're sort of you know, you're just sort of minimal investment, if you will, in sort of this in this series being interesting. And it to to obviously with you know, imagined if it's to to it probably means and beat his back and the Sixers are sort of back to full strength. At that point. Now we're talking about value, you know, type of situations there with the series price where it's probably a lot closer to a pick them obviously Miami would still be favored, given that they would still have home court advantage, but you'd be sitting pretty with plus 600. So if you are thinking about the sixes, I think I would just take the series price and hope that all of this is subterfuge. I don't believe a word that Joelle Embiid is saying, I don't even know that Doc Rivers at this point believes a word of what he's saying based on how he's treated. The absence of Joel Embiid and DeAndre Jordan's minutes and all of that sort of thing. So yeah, that's all I've really got to say about that whole series.

Sheldon: 9:28

Yeah. Joellen beat is going to play and I would assume he plays on Friday, but he's definitely going to play in this series because just for the pop of the crowd at home, him stepping up on the on the court like he's doing that just for the Instagram memes for sure. I know that sounds crazy. But when you think of someone who refers to themselves as trowel mbeadh Right, he is definitely going to come out on the crowd. But yeah, as mentioned, nothing indicates to me this game. This series is going past five hard and can't be the guy anymore Tobias was never that guy. And Tyrese Maxey is still too young to be that guy. Depth was a problem before this, they're lost their best player. So no chance. I mean you mentioned dusting off the Andre Jordan and Paul Millsap Nope, not gonna be able to do it. Let's keep things moving to another two Oh series is a son's lead their series to nothing over the Mavs after 129 109. When on Wednesday night, going to be honest, this is another series I don't see going much past five, either, I struggle to see it. Game three is Friday, I'm on the son's minus one in that series. And this is going to be this is going to sound like a hot take. And I don't really mean it to be but here we are. Luka isn't built to beat a good team in the playoffs. What I mean by that is his style of play the ISO ball, it's either I sell ball or pick and roll, right. But literally, it's the same thing over and over and over again. And you can't do that for 48 minutes versus a good team. And then do it four times to beat a good team and a playoff series, need an offense need to get some easy baskets at some point. And also does the same things that everyone rip james harden for, he doesn't play defense. And when he doesn't have the ball on offense, he just standing at the three point line. Understand It's rare when he doesn't have the ball, but just standing there, it doesn't do anything. And on top of that, he's not in good enough shape to carry a team like that through the playoffs against a really good team. So you can win in the regular season like that cool. But against a good team. You need offense, you need to play defense and Chris Paul down the stretch, just cooked Luke, every chance he got pick and roll. And really like this. This is really the truth of the matter on offense, the style of play Lucas trying to play. I've only seen LeBron do that. That's it. Yeah. Here you were like you're just carrying the team for the whole game. And that was LeBron with that mangled cab scene that he dragged to the finals? Right? Like, come on, like, I just don't see it happening. I mean, good job. Good. times, you'll get one of the games at home, I assume. Because you'll just shoot so many threes. And they'll go in and cool. But they got no shot in this series.

Matt: 12:17

But I bet that's the thing, right? Like the one game that they're gonna get right? Usually that game three, we have seen a couple of game fours, thinking Denver against Golden State where the game for the pride sort of came up there. But I think that last point is the key. Right? And you can blame? It's a little bit chicken in the egg, right? Where is it the injuries? And that's why he's you know, quote, unquote, out of shape because he had to literally stop doing stuff for a week, or is or was he not in full shape, because he's just kind of never in perfect shape. And maybe that's why he gets injured the way that he does, right? That being said, like that's part of the plan, like conserve your energy when we're not running the offense through you that like three possessions per game, that we're not running the offense through you and conserve your energy on defense. And like that's the only way that the Mavericks are going to win. And then they threw the kitchen sink at the suns last night and we're competitive for three quarters. And then of course, it all falls apart because yeah, like over the course of 48 minutes, the cream rises to the top blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But like, there's not that much surprising about this, right? The sons are the better team, they were the better team before the series started. They're gonna be a better team after the series started. But I just have to reflect on the buy point for the sons, right? And when we're talking all the way through the regular season about futures, and we're going up and down the east and the west and all that sort of thing. And you go okay, like the sons are this price, and they're that much better than everybody else. Like you just have to understand there's always going to be a buy point during the playoffs and we got all wrapped up in the Warriors because they took a three nothing lead against the nuggets, which I mean talk about your one trick ponies. And then they went and they won a game at Memphis in game one, which is something the Timberwolves did as well. We got all wrapped up in the Warriors. And we kind of forgot about the suns and you and I talked about on Monday before this series started. This was a plus 350 to win the title situation. What three days later, they're down to plus 200. Right? So we hopped in on that by point we grabbed our plus 350 Because we realize like, by the way that pelicans teams pretty good, right? The CJ McCollum version of that pelicans team with all of those, you know, rookie pieces, et cetera, et cetera. Like that seems pretty good. And so like we shouldn't be down. Like we somehow downgraded the suns for playing a really good pelicans team that was allowed to improve throughout the season. We talked about a couple of ways. And without Yeah, and by the way, and DEVIN BOOKER goes out and what game two, and you just go, Okay, we're going to downgrade the suns for winning that series four to two and we're going to upgrade the Warriors for beating yo kitch and a bunch of, you know, randos essentially and so, I just can I go like this is why you wait because you can always find a better futures number during the playoffs because people get wrapped up in the sort of back and forth nature of the schedule and being Like, okay, like Yeah, the warriors are the favourites to win the title, because they had like a head start, right, they won the first three games of the playoffs, like no one's ever going to remember that three games stretch for either team. And so again less to do with the Mavericks in the suns. I think the point is, like we see now how much better the suns are than virtually everyone else in the West. It'll be interesting to see what happens in this next series against either Memphis or Golden State because I'm not even ready to rule out Memphis at this point, especially with the whole Gary Payton. The second situation happening so I'm just happy to have our plus 50 on the championship we hopped in at the right time, in my opinion. Now listen, maybe something crazy happens whether it's this round or the next round, maybe they don't even make the finals but either way, I think at plus 350 We've made ourselves a good bet.

Sheldon: 15:45

Yeah, just keep rolling it out. I'm gonna advise just keep rolling it out on the sons, the sons. And you know, I just spent all that time dissing Luca, and you're right. It is the opportunity to big up the sons because they are just a really, really good team. And I thought the telltale side was J kid said like, yeah, this series is going to be a little bit different because they don't have he actually named names of who they are. Oh Rudy, go Baird Hassan Whiteside I got guys that gives Amazingly, the bucket. It's like what's happening here. But all that to say the suns are really good. The MAVs Lukas, all right, but we've seen this time and time again from Luca, getting in shape and maybe can make it through the playoff run at some point. I don't know. Let's keep things moving. Though. The other two series are obviously both tied at one and these series have been it's going to be pretty interesting because I still don't really know from a series standpoint where either one is going so the game the game will start with the Bucs and Celtics or do we want to start with the Grizzlies and warriors I'll dealer's choice I'll give you the option

Matt: 16:52

kind of feels like they're the same thing in a weird way, right? Where we all just didn't go into the Warriors and the box for winning road games in game one. And then it was like yeah, the home team is going to get one of these first two games and it's funny you mentioned the record at the start of the year at the start of the pod and what three and once in that previous podcast but you and I differed on a couple but we still got to three and one individually right we were one in one on games that we split the Memphis game wrong. Yeah. Yeah. And I and I was foolishly into the Sixers even though I really enjoyed where I wasn't halftime in that game but what else is new with being in a decent spot at halftime in a Sixers game so I'll talk Boston Milwaukee here and I have a ton for this right smart goes out in game to the line starts to drop from five got down to you could get a minus for it even money and then does that matter? No Where have we heard this before? Right like a key player goes out and it's funny when other when a line moves like that and it moves by like a point like that should be the indicator if it's only going to move if a guy is out and it's only going to move by a point then how much does it matter in a single game situation you know as it is right like that's the that's the hint folks that's the thing that's telling you like Marcus smart over the course of a series all of that sort of thing like that's gonna matter but when we're talking about Desperate times call for desperate measures here like it wasn't going to change much so whether you grab the the minus five that we talked about on Monday or whether you were able to get a minus four didn't matter game was never closed by the way the under hits again that we talked about Celtics unders like these things are not even remotely close after going to into against the nets. I don't know what it was. Again, we talked about it the referee is making all kinds of foul calls in that net Celtics series dig to get a couple of those games over. But that was to to to the in the over under in that series now we're to know in the under in this series and it's you know, still creeping down we're down to 213 we went through them to 215 and a half to 14 and a half down to 213. Probably having to play the under again here right but as far as the game is concerned, by the way this games have these games are happening on Saturday, because apparently the NBA saw a little drama with this series and we're just like, No, I don't know what it is what what holiday they're observing or whatever. But

Sheldon: 19:03

what it really is it's money. It's money. T and T and always money for T and T paid a lot of money for hockey. So they have hockey on tonight on TNT Thursday night. Okay, so they cleared out they cleared out they're scared to move the games. Yeah. It's all the time to be alive. Always follow the money. Always follow the money. Yeah, I

Matt: 19:22

mean, answered all your questions is money. That's boss. I didn't think I didn't think hockey was the money in this case. Hockey's never

Sheldon: 19:29

gone well. It's T and T. It's just whatever T and T one. No, of course. So. But yeah, I mean, the other part of this is Jaylen Brown. After a terrible game one he comes back drops 30 The whole narrative Oh, he was at the gym early shooting around getting shots up. But as mentioned, we have a series you're going to Milwaukee it's minus three on Saturday, I'm going to be on the bucks. And the reason I'm going to be on the Bucks is because it's a short number and here's some stats for you. I know you like your numbers, try to you know try to add some stuff in here but Because at no I had trouble trying to figure out where I was going in this series because there's two blowout games, right? But here's the thing. What if I told you that in this series so far Boston in both games has shot more threes than tubes? So all season long, twice the Boston Celtics shot more threes and twos. They've done it twice in two games in this series. So they've shot 93 threes and 71 twos in this series, right? So obviously, the threes didn't go in and game one. And they did go in and game two. So I say all that to say, What am I trusting more in the playoffs? What is more sustainable, and that's Milwaukee, who also wants to shoot threes, but they only shot 18. They went three of 18 and Game Two, right? But they take it to the cup. That's more sustainable to me, especially in a playoff series where you're talking about refs calling fouls and unders and ugly basketball, the sustainable play is more so taking it to the paint playing inside the honest playing bully ball, all that fun stuff instead of relying on like Grant Williams to splash in threes again. So what will happen in the series, I don't know. But in terms of a game to game thing in the series moving from Boston to Milwaukee. I'm going to be on the Bucs and think that the Celtics aren't going to shoot a franchise playoff record 20 threes again, as they did in game two, and I'm going to be on the Bucs minus three that's just where I'm at. In fifth edition of the series plays out because again, I still don't i If you ask me right now who's gonna win this series? I still don't know. I'm still leaning on the books. But here we are minus three bucks on Saturday. I'm on that I can tell you that much.

Matt: 21:45

Yeah, there's a minus two and a half, even out there. And I hopped on that a couple of days in advance here. I hopped on that last night, I think you probably still get that in faraway places, so to speak. But as far as the you know, listen, you talked about the games one and games two. That just you know whether it's chicken in the egg again here, right? Like that's shock quality. Right? That's the shock quality stat that we you know, we we quote all the time. And it was like yeah, first game shock quality was fairly even. Celtics missed all of their shots. It's why they got blown out right, like they should have, on an average day made more of those shots. And that game should have been closer. I think the Bucs were supposed to win that game by three or four points instead of the 11 points that they did. But the shot quality was virtually the same in the next game. And that's the thing that you and I talked about as far as predictive metrics, can we rely on the shot quality to be the same game to game? And then can we rely on sort of an average level performance? Now the crazy thing in this series is that like the Celtics were way above average in game two, right? So like, if they could find their level here from a water, you know, water finding level average standpoint, like, Okay, we would might have a closer game here because the shock quality is indicating that these games should be a lot closer. It's really just a matter of the high variance style of play that the Celtics are playing, ie taking a lot of three pointers, which you so eloquently described. And so I look at it and I go, Okay, well, what is more likely to happen on the road? You mentioned it the Grant Williams is you know, throw out the Peyton Pritchards of the world, right? Like, we always talked about the supporting cast on the road, I'm always going to bet against the supporting cast when you win games on the road. It's because your dominant player was a dominant player and probably was the big time key to you winning the game ie Yiannis in game one. I don't I'm not there yet, even with Jason Tatum, so that, you know, thinking that he can win this game by himself when Yiannis is on the other side, right? It's a different story. When you are playing, not the defending champion, not the quote unquote, defending MVP. So I look at that number at minus two and minus three going like, that still feels a little short. Now the series price I think is interesting to me and worth mentioning, because, you know, you look at this game and Milwaukee's favored, and they have home court advantage, quote unquote. But they're still the underdog in this series. I plan not much, but like plus 105. And you can say like, Yeah, but they have home court, they've wrestled home court away from Boston, like, shouldn't we be hopping all over that? Now the difference between home court before game one is you have to win the four out of seven games on your home court. problem here for the Bucs is if they're going to take advantage of the home court advantage, they have to win three out of four, right? So instead of the four out of seven, it's it's now a 75% win rate over the course of these next four games, which is why it's not the same thing right home court advantage, you want it over a longer term, or even in the smallest of terms, right you want game seven at home. So the Celtics know they just need to steal quote unquote, one of these games in Milwaukee. Now, does that necessarily happen in game three? I think you and I are in agreement. You know if we had to which we are I would again I've already said it I've bet it I don't think so. Think Milwaukee wins this game. I think they've covered the spread. But that's just you know, worth mentioning as far as the series price is concerned, you're not necessarily getting the deal. You might think you are on a plus price with Milwaukee given what's asked of them to sort of make home court advantage an actual thing to take advantage of.

Sheldon: 25:18

Yeah, it's actually a thing to buy design from Coach buds brain I guess, so to speak. Like their defense is designed to protect the paint and, you know, force you into shooting threes. Now, if you want to make the threes cool, Merry Christmas to you. There's nothing as mentioned nothing you can do when you're shooting and hitting 20 threes in a game. But can you do that over the course of seven games? Can those guys do that on the road? Game three, I'm gonna bet. No. We'll see how things go. The Grizzlies in warriors the Grizzlies even up their series with the 1061 on one victory, which was as mentioned the only game was wrong in the pod and you know what? I'm okay with that because at the end of the day, I sat down and could only be in awe of what John Moran was doing 47 Eight Nate 18 points in the fourth quarter he was dropping dudes that move we had on Jordan pool where pool like spun around and like touch the float like that was just insane stuff going on from John Moran. What is seen, but as mentioned the series is now one in one right tied up at one Saturday warriors are favored by six and a half. And that's interesting to me, because I don't really want to lay the points, but I will. Okay, oh, here here's the thing. Here's the thing. Here's the thing, okay. The Warriors lose the close games right? I think the Warriors are gonna win this series. Okay, follow me follow the logic. I think the Warriors are

Matt: 26:48

gonna You're quoted as saying they went in sixth. Right. That was last step. So

Sheldon: 26:52

So I think the Warriors win this series, but the games the warriors were win will be blowouts interesting. Stat warriors are 13 and 13. This season in games decided by five points or less. Okay? They are front runners. When they come home to that crowd in game three. That will be the game that I'm going to trust in the fact that Klay Thompson isn't going to struggle like he did in game two Klay and Steph combined, were just 16 for 44 in that game two on the road, and they still almost won they were up 9893 with like three minutes left in that game before John went jock. And the interesting thing we'll come down to okay well who's gonna guard job? Right like That's because you mentioned Gary Payton Jr. Earlier, which I think will be very indicative of what's going to happen in this series going forward. But at the end of the day, I'm still trusting in the Warriors. And as we look in the game three, I don't like the six and a half points, but I just see it being the front running game where all the threes are going in Jordan pool, you know, solidifies his spot is the best warrior and nothing. No joking. I just tried to get the reaction just trying to get

Matt: 28:03

ice holding my tongue. No, no, I literally, I literally bit my tongue.

Sheldon: 28:07

I literally just being stupid. But the point remains, I don't like it. But I'm on the Warriors minus six and a half in game three on Saturday. What do you think, Ben?

Matt: 28:18

So I thought you were gonna say I don't want to lay the lay the points of warriors. So I'm not because I'm not like to me, this is I, again, they might cover you might get it right. Like all of that sort of thing. I'm just I'm just not that would be my my cross off. Now. Does that mean I'm betting Memphis? The answer to that is probably but this isn't exactly I've, it's not exactly I've already bet it in the same way that Milwaukee is I've already got it right. So parse that out, however you need to, because again, like I referenced, it's I don't need to rehash this, but you know, when I talked about the sons, but like, I might be the only one who's just not that into this edition of the warriors. And we talked about the matchup and this being like a dream on green, kind of just, you know, meandering around defense type of thing, which isn't a bad thing. He's still an excellent defensive player, right? But it's almost like and he listens to the obviously different environmental, that sort of thing. It's almost like he doesn't really know what to do with himself in this series. Sometimes like it's, it's, it's positive, sometimes it's negative, a lot of times, we're firing off, you know, fingers to the crowd, we're getting tossed out of games, all of that sort of thing. And you mentioned Klay Thompson struggling because like that guy, again, multiple surgeries on multiple catastrophic injuries to his legs. Like we just, he's just on the downside, like we talked about the Warriors. That's why we wanted the Warriors early in the playoffs as aggressively as we did, because the mileage on these guys is just up there. And you mentioned we both mentioned Peyton, like part of the Draymond thing is like no, he's not going to go guard John Moran so they have to find somebody else to do it. And clay isn't a defensive player that he used to be and so and Peyton's out and like again, it's bad matchup, Draymond is not going to do like it's just it doesn't really fit So like, I don't see why Marinette couldn't still be awesome. And again, we're not requesting that they even win this game, they were just sort of requesting that this game is close. And I kind of think that it's going to be and like, okay, so then they go there, you know, 13 and 13. And close games, I mean, part of that might be, they're just really good free throw shooters, and can extend the four point game to a six point game, right? More often than most, right? So there's, you sort of play with the numbers there a little bit as well. So I think this is Memphis or nothing for me, you know, we went through the first four games and didn't first three games and didn't have a disagreement. I think we're in disagreement here, even though I think we both sort of understand the position of the other person. If I had to bet it. By the time Saturday rolls around, I will probably have a ticket on Memphis, especially if we see an uptick to a half point, you know, even a plus seven would be great. As long as they don't have to pay anything for it. I'll be on Memphis. But no, I don't want anything to do with the serious price of the money line or anything like that. Just give me the points here. As many as I can get.

Sheldon: 31:00

Yeah. And I think like my whole thing is just firmly based on if the when the Warriors win the win big. But the flip side is like the warriors against the sons. Like that's not a that's not a thing, right? The sons, the sons, I think take the Warriors fairly easily. But I mean, I still want to see that series, I think that series would be incredible. But to recap the NBA pics here on this pod, we're talking warriors minus six and a half on the Bucs minus three, the sons minus one and the heat plus one. As mentioned, we try to just give out a pick for every game, which you know, which will be the next game after you listen to this pod. Try to keep the record going here trying to keep the record good. And spicy. As we do things here in the NBA. We'll get back to the pod in a second. But first be approved when introducing DRF sports all new premium data feature on drf.com/sports. For $99 a year, which is 825 a month, you can get industry leading betting trends, angles, and analytics. With so many big sporting events here, it's the best way for you to make some money this postseason and have fun while doing it. That's DRF sports, bro, sign up now at drf.com/sports. But of course, there's more playoff action going on elsewhere. And I know that there's a lot of you know, we're in the first round of the NHL playoffs. So I'm kind of going to just throw it out to you and ask you simple question like, you know, instead of trying to go game by game, what is the series that kind of Syriza? Plural? Yeah, where do you want to go with this NHL wise in terms of what's going on? What's peeking your interest? What? You know, cuz Well, you're not necessarily going to be like, I want to make this big for the next game.

Matt: 32:50

Well, depends, right? I mean, listen, there's nothing like game ones of the Stanley Cup playoffs, small sample variants, all of that sort of thing. There's nothing like game wants to make you feel like an idiot, right? Because the team, one team can outplay another team. And then you look at the scoreboard, and the scoreboard is drastically different. And, you know, I think the interesting thing here, especially looking at last night is that in the NHL, and I would make the case, even maybe more than football, not that it's a more aggressive game than football, it's more of that if you're playing in a football game, when you step on the field, there's an automatic level of aggression that you need to hit just to be able to play the game in hockey, you can actually kind of saunter around if you want, right, you don't have to be physical, it just really, really helps. And when we get into the game to situation like we saw with last night, what you bring to Game Two with a physical response really, really matters in a game that is an aggression game. And so you know, we'll talk Toronto Tampa Bay right off the hop here, game one, five, nothing Toronto, but there was so little play at even strength and Well remind everybody that any number that I quote is a even strength number because of the importance that we put on even strength that we talked about on Monday. And so little of it was five on five but obviously the score is five nothing and you go oh man, like Tampa Bay couldn't get anything done on the power play. Right? So little of that game was played at even strength like the plan can't be for Toronto to allow Tampa Bay to have a five minute power play and hope to be the better team four on five, right? That was a one off outlier circumstance, that type of thing we talked about all the time. But when sort of put together with everything else, it makes it look like Toronto was the dominant team. Problem is they weren't that dominant at even strength right a couple of powerplay goals will have that you know look a certain way a shorthand and go have that look a certain way and so ironically gained two for Tampa, you know, they were, you know, five one at one point, right? Like they look to be the more dominant team, but I'm here to tell you the advanced metrics look pretty similar. In both games, these games for a series that we expect to be a coin flip toss up seven game series have played out that way at even strength with both these teams in their wins having only a slight edge at even strength. But guess what happened yesterday, Tampa Bay scored a bunch of our play goals, right? Like that was sort of that difference maker, you know, Jack Campbell letting in an extra goal and you know against high danger chances like that's the difference. Same thing with Vasilevsky in the previous game, right? Campbell led jumping out of the way at the end of the period to allow admin to score that goal, not something that I would have done. Okay, wouldn't have been my strategy. But you know, I'm not a goaltender. So this series is now minus 115 minus 105, in the series price, basically a pickup. And that's where we thought it would be like, I bet you this is where we're going to be after game four. So when you're talking about like, what do we want in the next game, like that's going to come down to pricing, right, because everything we do comes down to pricing. So I'm gonna hop in, it's, you know, what day is Thursday, Thursday morning, we're gonna get some odds here on this game, I'm looking at up at minus 105 minus 115. Everything about this is minus 105 minus 115. Like it is a slight edge for Tampa Bay. So like there isn't really anything to do other than sit back and just keep the price that we have from the start of the playoffs right on Toronto to win this series. The expectation that it goes seven games, Carolina, Boston, we watch Game One early opportunities for Boston against against Carolina and Ranta. And the puck just refuses to go in the net. And then Carolina 36 minutes into the game, like they finally scored on one of their few chances. And then the very next game I was I wrote about how the expectation was Jeremy swayman was going to play for Boston instead of Linus omark. And guess what? Nope. Linus Oh, marks back in the game. And here's the stats from Mackay. We've got again, Boston out high danger chances four to two not exactly drastic here. But the expected goals for Boston in the game last night. 1.78 2.77 a full one goal expected difference on five on five play? Why didn't they get that? For some reason, they're not able to score on whoever Carolina's got in that they were under their third string or a guy whose name I don't even I can't even pronounce at this point. And all mark is giving up goals in non high danger situations. Right? That can't happen. So the expectation for me was that swayman was going to be in for game two. They didn't go that route, and it cost them. He didn't bounce back all Merck I imagined swayman is going to be in the next game. Does that necessarily mean all that much as far as their winning win probability? The market says they're going to win this game, or at least the lien is that way, Boston minus 135. And I'll be the sucker to play Boston back at home at minus 135. That's just that's just a numbers play. I'm trying my best not to overreact to Boston just not able to score but the chances are they're the ratio is there. I have to play Boston in this next game. The the Oilers last night, a much better game, Mike Smith out there during the George Costanza, he's biting onions, he's spot and dimes. He doesn't I don't know what to believe. Right? I thought he was doing a bit after the first shot, like snuck through him and sat in the crease last night after his, you know, foray into puck handling in game one. But Edmonton steps up, right, they play the better game now was that because LA had gotten their splits? And didn't, you know, wasn't feeling it that much? I you know, I don't know. Right? One of my biggest challenges, and I think I'm gonna write about this next week, but I don't even really know what the angle is. As far as like research, isn't that sort of thing is? How does your probability shift after you lose the first game of a series, right? Because that urgency has to exist, that has to mean more than just being at home. Right? We factor in a probability for home ice home court. Well, what's the probability when you lose that game one, especially if it's at home, and you have that desperation mode that you have to activate for game two? Because we saw that last night with Minnesota against St. Louis? In theory, except I look at the numbers and Minnesota was the better team so shell to help you know, it put this out there for people to sort of understand. I want you to pick your favorite hockey high danger scoring chance for me. Do you like a break away? Do you like a one time or you're a big Austin Matthews guy? Do you like a slot? One timer? What about a rebound in the crease Something along those line? What's your favorite one of those? Or maybe there's another way? God loves a good breakaway loves? And that's the most basic one right where it's like you everybody has seen a breakaway shootout, all that sort of thing. So when we talk about high danger chances, obviously there's different types, but let's pretend that they are all breakaways, just for the sake of argument. In Game one, St. Louis had four high danger chances. Minnesota had 12. So if we picture those in the form of breakaways, that means that Minnesota went over 12 on breakaways, While St. Louis went one for four, now, if you could predict that happening in the next game, which team would you bet on, you would obviously bet on Minnesota. So and we bet on Minnesota and we won. The problem is with all of this craziness when it comes to hockey metrics, and all of that sort of thing, is that we watched that game last night. And guess who had more high danger chances at even strength? St. Louis, they lose with five eye danger scoring chances that even strike Minnesota has only two. Now they got one out of two, right one attitude, quote unquote, breakaways, where St. Louis was over five. And we talked on Monday about this being a high variance sort of wacky series, and almost just sort of not automatically, but just resting on the idea of if we can, if we can just grab under five and a half games at, you know, plus 145 150 and extreme price, and just sort of let it play out the way it's going to play out. This is the kind of stuff that we would expect from kind of a wacky series from a variant standpoint, does that mean one team is going to win four to one or even four? Well, certainly not for nothing anymore. But is that does that mean that? No, of course it doesn't. But it just means that neither of these teams are reliable on a game to game basis, which is why I didn't want to pick either one of these teams, I rather take sort of the biggest price possible for the series. And in this case, that was under five and a half games at plus 145. So then, you know, we've got a handful of game twos. So again, I'm not playing anything in game three of that series. Again, I'm just sort of going okay, whoever wins game three, I will then be cheering for them to win game four to keep our series but a lot. As for the game two's that go tonight, okay, we got to talk Rangers penguins, I think went six periods. We got guys eaten broccoli and spicy pork. That was a bad choice, right? It's like milk on a hot day. This series is priced as a coin flip. We expect it to be coin flippy this first game was originally priced pretty coin flipping and then Pittsburgh got out to like a plus 125 which was incredible to me. I was all over that. And it goes to overtime and it goes to it goes to three overtimes and you go man, like that game could have gone either way that must have been equally played. Well, shall penguins seven and a half expected goals for now? Well, that's over the course of almost six periods. But that was to the Rangers 3.89. So the Rangers scored three goals. They had expected three point a none pretty, you know, equal. Pittsburgh scored three goals, eventually a fourth. And we're at seven and a half. And that's and that's that's the shesterkin factor. Right? That's the fear in playing against a guy who is the best goaltender in the league. And so Okay, which do you want to balance? Do you want to balance? Okay, I want you to stick in because he's going to you know, that you have to get seven and a half goals just to get four goals, if you know what I mean? Or do you want the team that we predicted would be the better team at even strength? And I'm not even talking about Power Play opportunities, right? When it comes to that seven and a half goals. That's seven and a half goals is literally just even strength. So which would you rather have now we go into overtime, and they bring in the third string guy, and he's full of pork and all of that. And he just like, okay, short term variance, Louis Demesne can be as good behind his penguins team, as shesterkin can be good behind that Rangers team. And we can get by with Louis Dominque against the rangers and Chester now. Is that going to flip tonight? Because the rangers have lost the first game at home? That's the question that I still haven't answered. As far as my win probability change. I'm going to just stay steer clear. We got our split when it comes to Pittsburgh. Again, I have them minus one and a half in the series to win in six games or less. I have them to win the series, etc, etc. We're if they win tonight, and they go up to nothing headed home, then we're in a great spot. I don't need to pile into this series, any more than I already do. Florida and Washington speaking of egg on one's face, the capitals man like they don't do anything for three years in the playoffs. And then they go on the road and they beat the Panthers the best team in the league in regulation. And the capitals deserved it. They outplayed Florida marginally. It wasn't some drastic thing. But from an expected goals and high danger chance like that was fair. And even if they lost the game with those same metrics, if you had bet the capitals, you had to feel pretty good about your bet, because you're getting you know, plus 200 on a team that played Florida equally. What's the expected response tonight for Florida? And is it worth Lang? minus 210 minus 220? Whatever it is right now. I'm not quite there. Again, I have series prices minus two and a half. That doesn't look so good. Minus one and a half still very much in play for a potential split on this series. Not every series do you have to have some, you know massive win or massive loss, right? There are plenty of series out there to sort of have your money in play. This is one where you don't need to be doing that much. When it comes to the series. I would look more at Florida when they go on the road against the capitals. I believe if we're doing the math correctly here, that would be on Saturday. So Florida at a short minus moneyline price in Washington will probably be a play for me there. And then the final two games, right? We talked about Dallas having a chance against Calgary, we talked about Nashville having a chance again, relative to price against Colorado and these two from a metric standpoint are sort of congruent and really interesting. We'll talk about Calgary first game one, five on five. Each team played about equally and really, really stingy. Right? Three, three was the high danger chances and even strength for either team. So like not a ton going on. Now. Is that all that surprising for a game? That was one to nothing? No, when you look back, you know, look at the scoreboard and sort of do the math there. That's not all that shocking. Each team had five power plays. Right? You and I talked about it. We used a really, I think a strong example about power plays. One out of four, one out of five like how that's the difference, Calgary scored on their power on one of their five power plays. Dallas didn't score on any of their power plays. Is that predictive in any way? No, because both teams are around 20% on the power play. So it just so happened to Calgary got there. I would even make the point that Calgary's power play goal was relatively not fluky, but it wasn't necessarily Power Play ish, right, it was a four seconds into a power play, basically off of a faceoff play, they didn't even have the time to sort of work it around, get the momentum that a that a power play usually creates for a goal, it was just kind of a shot that went in could have been even strength happened to be on the powerplay, but the point is, whether it's three and three in the high danger chances five and five on the power play opportunities, it's a really evenly played game. And if no one nothing score would indicate that as well. And if you had plus 200 on one side, and or if you've had minus 240, or 250. On the other side, again, even at a loss, you'd probably be feeling pretty good about the bet that you made with Dallas. And so that's where I'm at with that. The problem is last year on, you know, previous iterations of this show, I invented the you blew it theory, the idea that you play a game, and you have these really good metrics, or at least competitive metrics the way that Dallas did, and you lose. In theory, we should be backing you in game two, because we think okay, well, we know that you can be competitive in this game in this series. And we're still getting plus 200 on the price problem is in the next game, a lot of the time, the better team plays very, very well. Right to the ratio that we would expect them to. And the theory is, you blew it Dallas, right like you had your chance was that Dallas his chance to get a game early on in the series and that's the thing that we talked about on Monday. Right was if Dallas is I shouldn't say if but the best chance Dallas has is to get game one because this is going to be the most competitive maybe that they're going to be certainly in Calgary having come off of playing playoff hockey for as long as they did and they did they played well right three and three at all. You know what nothing game like But Jim might have blown it, you might have blown your opportunity Dallas. So at plus 200 Or more like I'm still going to bet it right because again, they're competitive but I just I understand that the blue it theory exists there. And then there's Colorado in Nashville and this is arguably the most interesting one that's probably a lie. But it's interesting to me because it's an absolute caveat fest. So everything here comes with a caveat right so the first caveat is in a complete and utter housing the way that this game was right when it's what five nothing after one something four or five nothing after one and it's a first period blowout. It devalues everything that happens the rest of the game because it's played in a game state of two nothing three nothing for nothing five nothing right so you have to take everything with a grain of salt that being said those grains of salt high danger chances that even strength 9999 shell for a game that was seven to two like that even had me taken aback now again, caveat being game script at cetera, et cetera, but expected goals 2.08 And even strength to 1.63 for Nashville, so not a blowout. From that standpoint. The problem is David Riddick that worry that we had right What if you see starless was in probably a lot more interesting of a game. It is David Riddick just terrible and he's just gonna give up all of these goals in every game. The answer that of course is maybe, and hopefully not right, like hopefully he sort of buckles down here and plays a A lot better. But you look at the first period metrics right three to two in high danger chances point five, eight expected goals at even strength for Colorado and they had five goals and the entire you know in the four or five I keep forgetting what it was four or five nothing I blacked out at some point. But you look at the first five goals right powerplay goal, high danger goal. Okay, that was the one short handed goal. And then Kaoma car being absolutely sick, right? Like that's not a high danger chance for 99.9% of the population in the NHL, from that angle to roof it over the goaltender. That's a kale macaque. Now part of this whole betting on Colorado over the Nashville thing is, Colorado has the players that can have just set goals. Nashville doesn't, right. So how does this get solved? Well, maybe maybe Riddick makes a save. At some point. Maybe they stopped taking penalties to have those two power play goals that they got over the course of the game. One of them was five on three, by the way. So again, like these are outlier type goals. And then how about you don't give up a short handed goal, right. And those are all pretty basic stuff, because the even strength play is actually pretty good. But we're up to plus 310 310 on the money line in an NHL hockey game between two playoff teams, or at least two playoff skater groups. Right. I know that the goaltending for Nashville is playoff worthy. So I think I have to go back to the well here again, nothing crazy, just small bets. It's plus 310. You don't need to be going full units on this sort of thing. If you end up winning the bet you're winning a unit and a half back off of a half unit play like that's certainly enough for the long shot in national but just worth mentioning that this game at even strength caveat, game script blah, blah, blah. It was closer. It's closer than the absolute truck job that it actually was the predators just need goaltending. The bad news is that's probably just not going to come but again if Louis demain can come in full of pork and beat Igor shesterkin. In a short term sample size David Riddick can show up and play a decent game in game two or game three or game four something along the lines here. And the value is going to continue to being on the predators and whether that matters or not. Time will tell

Sheldon: 52:22

NHL playoffs always entertaining. And of course the NBA Playoffs always entertaining as well. It's just a great time of year. It's just a great time here. Where can people find you on the day to day figure out you know, maybe some ins and outs some live betting angles. We want to follow you for that obviously change between now in game time. But where can people keep up to date with you my dude?

Matt: 52:46

Yeah, or maybe just yelling about the NHL referees and goaltender interference. Thank God that goaltender that got called back in New York. I mean, what literally, what was the goaltender supposed to do? The answer is nothing. What is the player supposed to do? How about not make a beeline directly for the crease? And you know, like Yeah, okay, he was slightly nudged. Sure. That's the kind of good stuff that you're gonna get over it at em Ross authentic on Twitter. We haven't talked much NFL can do a little offensive and defensive Rookie of the Year. Market analysis here after the draft from last week. So a bunch of new players bunch of new rookies, we ought to bet on them. We're going to take a quick look at the market there later on this week.

Sheldon: 53:29

Sounds good. My new thanks again. And hopefully, we'll see you again down the line.

Matt: 53:34

Yeah, thanks a lot, pal. Enjoy the week.

Sheldon: 53:41

Then if you want to follow me online, you can do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. Don't forget to like and subscribe to DRF sports podcast wherever you get your podcasts also rate us viewers like us all that other fun stuff. But for more from this new project from DRF sports. Just a little reminder, if you're unfamiliar with the letters DRF stands for daily racing form, which has been around for over 100 years, giving you all of the horse racing information, data and analysis. But now we've taken over the entire sports world. So if you want coverage on every football game, as well as the NBA MLB, college sports and more, head to drf.com/sports for all of the details and insights, as the site has all of the data on every game, including offensive and defensive stats, betting angles, line movements, key injuries, Team stats, and more. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. So if you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. If you want access to all the raw data drf.com/sports That's where you can find the usual previews as we deep dive into the games, of course, got you covered on this podcast. however you want your betting information, we've got you covered. Again, my name is Sean Alexander. That's all I got for now. But until next time, see.

DRF Sports: 55:10

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