Host Sheldon Alexander and betting analyst Matt Russell preview the NFL season with division-by-division breakdowns, tackle the Futures Markets and handicap the Cowboys-Bucs Thursday night opener.
Host Sheldon Alexander and betting analyst Matt Russell preview the NFL season with division-by-division breakdowns, tackle the Futures Markets and handicap the Cowboys-Bucs Thursday night opener.
Welcome to the DRF sports betting podcast brought to you by DRF sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports betting podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready, Set bet.
Sheldon:This is the first episode of The DRF sports betting podcast. I'm your host Sheldon Alexander. Now I'm fired up to be here for this brand new project for DRF sports. If you're not familiar with us, well, where have you been? Daily racing form has been around for literally over 100 years, giving you all the information data and analysis for your horse racing needs. But now they're making moves check out the website DRF comm slash sports for all your football betting needs. And right now they've gotten the division previews up including how to bet the Chiefs as a clear favorites in the AFC West that morgan@drf.com slash sports or follow along on Instagram at DRF sports and on Twitter DRF underscore sports for the latest football betting news. And of course, for everything else that's going on at DRF sports including this podcast, which again, the DRF sports betting Podcast, where I'll be with you twice a week for everything you need to know the ins and outs of betting on the NFL, which is back and including today's show. We're talking futures conference picks and VP picks Coach of the Year I can go on and on and on. But bottom line is we got you covered with everything you need to know trying to find you some value on how to bet the upcoming NFL season. But of course, as I set sail on this new project, I had to reach out to an old friend to be the first guest on the pod. If you like sports betting like me, like the numbers digging deep dive trying to find some value. The Matt Russell is your guy. And he joins us on the pod right now. And we are so close to the start of the NFL season, which for me means it's time to start making some bets. I love football, and I love betting on football. But like most people, I need some help from time to time. And so there's no one else that I would turn to on the first episode of this. The DRF sports betting podcast and Matt Russell from the score. Mr. Russell, how you doing?
Matt:Man? I am fantastic. Any day now? Right? Like we're kicking this ball off here depending on when you're listening to this maybe they've already kicked the ball off for Thursday night hopefully not because we're gonna get into that game a little later on. But look at us, man. We made it I guess. I guess we named that football pod after all. That's that's a wink wink to some of our our listeners back in the day.
Sheldon:Well play it I see what you did there. I see what you did. Well, as mentioned, right now@drf.com slash sports. You can find full AFC West breakdowns. And this is why they're talking about the Chiefs as a clear cut favorites yet again. Now of course, we're always trying to find different angles, different ways to make some money, betting the chiefs. Tough to argue against that. But do you have any other angles on the AFC West?
Matt:Yeah, I mean, listen, just sit here and say, Hey, you know, the chiefs are gonna get beat this year, the Chiefs aren't gonna win the division. They've won it what a billion years in a row. I think, Check. Check me on that on that math. Here's the thing, right? When we're looking to beat the team, whether it's division, conference, whatever, you're looking for uncertainty, but in a good way. And for me here, I'm looking at the Chargers who are plus 500 plus 600 in some spots. Listen, I'm not going nuts with this because who wants to fade Patrick mahomes over in any length of time. But this is a chargers team who we don't really know what we're gonna get offensively. We didn't see Justin Herbert at all in the preseason. But I think we like what Justin Herbert did last year, and that was when he was handicapped by his offensive coordinator, Shane Steichen. And of course, your boy, Anthony Lynn, who is just an absolute disaster. Now you talk about improvements from a coaching standpoint, like, what's the number, right? Like, what is the number that we can put on this? You know, are they 10% better? Are they 20% more improved from an actual winning game standpoint and seeing how all of the things that they did last year to lose games, once you even just remove that let alone actual good decision making that might come into play here under Brandon Staley and his coaching staff? What's the number right like they might be the next really great team, right? And so the Chiefs were once this team that we didn't know right, Patrick mahomes. In his first year, they had the he had overthrown Alex Smith, and it was like, and we seen him play one game. It was like a week 17 game we don't really know what to expect from that. And then all of a sudden, boom, MVP type season, not saying just nervous necessarily gonna have an MVP type season, but when we're looking for that next team, who is going to be really, really good for the next five years, the way that chiefs are right in the middle of right now might be the Chargers, right really sharp, seemingly head coach, and a lot of pieces, a lot of talent that had been, you know, brought down a little bit over the last couple of years. I think it's worth a flyer on the charges. I'm not saying anybody's gonna get hurt on the Chiefs or anything like that. But the charges always match up well with the chiefs. I mean, look at it from a defensive standpoint, like Patrick mahomes, his numbers have always just kind of dipped when playing the chargers. Now, again, slightly different defense, but just as sharp of a guy, as you know, Gus Bradley was when the Chargers were employing him to be the defensive coordinator. So you know, when we're talking about just those matchups, maybe they get a split this year, and then it kind of doesn't really matter how good the chiefs are, yeah, obviously, they're gonna win a bunch of games against a bunch of other teams. But if the Chargers do the same thing, right, they're going to be in contention for this division. So I think the ceiling here is really high on the chargers.
Sheldon:Yeah, and I mean, just having the new coaching you mentioned No, Anthony Lin. That's got to be worth at least a couple of wins now. Yeah, we've worked so hard. I mentioned last year
Matt:we work so hard coming up with ratings right I've got all my ratings for the for these teams and this time whatever, like I don't know how high to make the Chargers right. They could be really high by the by three, four weeks into the season. I read to be on the front end of that then sort of lagging behind and going like can you believe how good this team is?
Sheldon:I totally agree with you there on the AFC West but also up on DRF comm slash sports right now is an AFC South breakdown, where the talk there is about the Titans being the clear cut favorites. Now, of course make sure you check that out. But Matt, I have to ask you, what do you make of the AFC South?
Matt:This is the exact opposite right then the AFC West, this has dumpster fire division written all over and there's always got to be one. I think we always kind of assume you know, especially the last couple of years that it's going to be the NFC East who knows maybe the Cowboys end up being good maybe Washington ends up being good in this case here you know, I think Tennessee is taking is going to take a step back right obviously everybody's talked all summer long about Arthur Smith leaving and all of that sort of thing. I think they take a little bit of a step back here. And I think for me though, in this division obviously Houston speaking of dumpster fires, right like that's like a whole dumpster fire right but the whole the whole thing is up in flames you know they've got no shot. I'm looking to instead of you know back Tennessee or back this team, I'm looking to fade the Colts here right like this does not feel good if you're the Colts right, Carson Wentz like, you know, we can go back and forth on whether we think he is going to have this bounce back here. I don't necessarily think that's the case right here requiring him to not only be healthy, but also be good. And those are two things that I don't necessarily believe Carson Wentz can be so you know we've also seen a couple of other injuries right to you I Hilton's out all you know to start the season, bunch of stuff going wrong with the Colts. So how do we take advantage of that? Right? So it's easy to just be like well, under on the regular season win total? Well, I think the markets kind of caught up on the idea that the Colts might not be very good here. But when since we're talking about the division, what I'm looking to do is I'm looking to grab the two other teams, one of them obviously, Tennessee, and the other being Jackson, when you're saying like Jacksonville, like what are you talking about? Well, let me ask you this, Sheldon, when was the last time you did the limbo? Never. Yeah, good. That's the correct answer. I don't want you to ever do the limbo and under any circumstance. But we all can picture it. We all know what it is right? You throw the bar up, and you do the little dance and you go underneath it right? And sometimes most of the time you fall flat on your butt. Now here's the situation we just talked about the charges and the chiefs. The bar really, really high right? Or in this case low right? You have to really accomplish something to knock off the chiefs. I don't think you have to accomplish that much this year in the AFC south, I think nine and eight may very well win it here. And so you know i don't think necessarily Jacksonville is going to do that. But we're looking at 10 to one right now in the division for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Right and again, a lot of uncertainty. Trevor Lawrence finally had a good preseason game Urban Meyer who knows what that guy's up to. Right so we don't really know what to expect from Jacksonville so I take a little and I put that on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The reason being is they have a pretty comfy schedule to start the year right they have the Houston Texans to start there's a Bengals game I believe it's week three or week four and then they have a home game against Tennessee Meanwhile, Tennessee trickier schedule to start the season. Obviously a tough game and week one, if we can get to a point here where maybe Tennessee's to into maybe Jacksonville's to into maybe Jacksonville gets that home when in week five. Now all of a sudden, instead of paying minus you know 130 minus 140, something along those lines for the Titans. Now we're talking about an even money, maybe a plus 130 something along those lines. While we already have Jacksonville at 10 to one maybe even 11 one depending on where you know the book you're using. Then we we've got that in our back pocket so we got plus money on either side. Now how do we lose that bet? Well, the Colts win the division right? But I don't think that's going to happen. So I think we can sort of play the sort of stock market II style here and buy a little low early on with Jacksonville think that they might get a couple of wins here early heading into that game against Tennessee. And then we're gonna wait and then we're gonna buy low on Tennessee once that price gets a little more palatable in the you know, plus 120 type river range, right? And by the way, the Colts might be okay to start the season. But are they going to stay that way throughout the year? I don't think so. So I think that's our opportunity in the AFC south.
Sheldon:I like that man. I really love when we have these conversations, because you're giving me value and different ways to look at something that seems super simple in terms of Oh, well, it just pick this team or just pick that team. But no, fade one team go at it another way, see where you can seek the value there? And is there an opportunity to do that? And maybe some of the other divisions? I mean, I look around and Aaron Rodgers is made. He's made things a little interesting in Green Bay. I'll say that. So when you look at the rest of that division, how do you see that playing out?
Matt:Yeah, so I have a couple of different plays here. I mean, for one, I like the Vikings to win this division. I know a lot of people don't necessarily like that, that makes me like it even more to be completely honest with you, right? It's easy to be like yeah, Packers, you can do this blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, right. But for the last two years, it's been on Aaron Rodgers shoulders, right? And if Aaron Rodgers is less, he's fantastic. He's got one Super Bowl in his entire career, right? Eventually he loses not every year do they make the playoffs? Not every year? Do they win the division? Right? We've seen the Chicago Bears win the division relatively recently, we have seen the Vikings win the division relatively recently, the only thing we know for sure, is that the Detroit Lions are not going to win. So to me, it's like okay, we're getting plus 275 here with the Vikings. When I watched that, you know, the last game that they played against each other in the regular season, last year, dalvin cook running all over the Packers. And so it's not a full blown fade of the Packers. And in the same way, that is the Colts it's more just like everything is overpriced right now for the Packers. And if they're not going to do it defensively, and it's going to be all on the shoulders of Aaron Rodgers, you know that offensive lines changed quite a bit. Right. And we talked about the Chargers here a little earlier, and nobody's talking about Corey Linsley the center that moved from the Packers to the chargers. I think that's a really big deal. And now you've seen last week was David bakhtiari. He's not going to start the season healthy for the Packers as well. It's a lot of moving pieces on the offensive line, right. And so you can only throw swing passes to davante. Adams, and let him you know, break some tackles, you know, to get a bunch of yards the way that they do you only do that so many times. Same thing with Aaron Jones, four teams figure it out. Right. And, you know, we'll talk a little bit more about Mike Zimmer here in a little bit. But you know, I think this is a team that, yeah, it was rough last year. It was really rough last year for the Vikings. And that's a team that has a home field advantage more so than most teams. And they were coming out on the field looking around waiting and seeing and not seeing anybody. And that had to be that had to be a disadvantage in a lot of ways for the Vikings. So between health on defense, you know, more experience on defense and a defensive coach, I think they've got a chance at plus 275 in most places to win that division. elsewhere. I want to talk a little bit here about the NFC South being kind of a combination of the AFC West and the AFC south as well. So the NFC South, we're sitting there and say, Tampa Bay, alright Tampa Bay is to win cetera, et cetera. I don't believe that much in the Falcons. The Saints it's going to be a dicey year, right. Anytime you have jameis Winston as your quarterback, you're gonna get some really high good highs and get some really low lows. Carolina Panthers right now 11 to one to win that division. Like that's low key sneaky. I'm not saying something's gonna happen to Tom Brady here, but it's not obviously out of the question. 10 pays going to win that division, not saying that they're not. But when we're talking about like the Jacksonville's of the world where it's like a 10 to one shot with a division that has one good team that something has to happen to, for it to sort of fall apart. That might be one that if you want to get a little sneaky, that might be the play I would make.
Sheldon:Okay, okay, there's a division that I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna lie to you here. I'm gonna be very honest, a division that I personally very interested in, because it involves my San Francisco 40 Niners. But also there's a lot of buzz about this being the best division in football. That's the NFC West. What do you make about what's going on out there with three teams that people wouldn't be surprised if three teams made the playoffs?
Matt:Well, isn't that the thing? I would throw fourth team, right, like, you know, whether it's Seattle, Arizona is the long shot, right? And the reason I wouldn't bet Arizona to win the division is because there are that three headed monster that sort of run the division over the last little while, right. And that's when we're talking about the bar. Right? So the bar is going to be set really high. We just don't really know which team is going to set it right AFC West we know Kansas City is going to set the bar really, really high. We don't know but somebody is going to do it right. These teams are gonna beat each other up. So I don't want anything to do with this. This from a division standpoint. But here's the thing and maybe this is bad news for you, pal. I love the San Francisco 40 Niners man a healthy San Francisco 40 Niners team like Jimmy G. tre, Lance, you at quarterback like I don't doesn't matter to me, man, right? Like the system is is the thing with San Francisco like you watch Shannon run we trust? Yeah, like, I just I love watching the run game. And just a quick passing and whether again, that's Jimmy g Orlando, I don't really care. I'm looking to shoot higher here with San Francisco. So instead of like a plus 174 to the division, because guess what if you if they win that division, they're going to be really good, right? Like you have to be really good to win that division. So I'm looking at them for a bigger type of thing. And NFC Championship market, for example. Right? So let me put this out right away here and nor people like why not the Super Bowl? Why not bet them to win the Super Bowl? Let's be honest. All right. Think about how you live your life, how we all live our lives, you're going to make this bet San Francisco to win the Super Bowl, and then they're going to get to the Super Bowl, and then you're going to have two weeks and you'd be sitting there going like I got them, you know, 1314 to one like what do I do? I got ahead. They're going up against, you know, Kansas City like they're underdogs. I don't know what to do. I don't know what to do. Just make it easier on yourself. Just bet the NFC Championship market. Yeah, it's less, right. It's half the odds. But you don't have to sweat the whole hedging situation. And for me, when it comes to a conference championship market, I need a team that I think can win the one seed right I need you to be getting a buy so that you're not even playing in a game because that in a lot of ways, is the only thing that's going to make a conference or Super Bowl. You know, betting market bet valuable is if you just skip a step, right by having that buy in the first week. And so listen, the division is going to be tough. But if San Francisco is as good as I think they can be, we're talking about a team that could go 13 and four, right, 14 and three, something along those lines. And maybe they talk Tampa Bay for that one seed, right. So if I like them in the NFC West, I kind of have to like them in the NFC entirely. So I would bet them at plus 550 you know, anything better than that. I think that's a great bet for thinking that San Francisco is going to get back to where they were two years ago, as you know, last year right. Just brutal on them from an injury standpoint. Hopefully they still stay healthy. And hopefully they just get cooking again, both quarterbacks one quarterback, I don't care, y'all you said in Shanahan I trust and I'm looking to trust him to to do some big things here and potentially get back to the Super Bowl.
Sheldon:Yeah, and that's my thing, too, right. Like, in if I'm gonna be serious for a second here. Obviously, there are things where, you know, I'm, I'm talking about my heart, but I'm talking about with my brain, as you mentioned, they were so injured last season on offense on defense. So many key players were out of the lineup. So for them to even just salvage six wins last year. Pretty sure was the number. It's like, I don't even know how that was a thing. So you return a bunch of players. You don't know what that wildcards going to be like with trade lands at all, but it's just giving another toy for Shanahan to play with. And if you follow that team at all, you know, he doesn't need much if he just has a decent quarterback, meaning Jimmy Garoppolo or even Matt Ryan like, success happens with Shannon like we've just seen that right time and time again. But if we segue here you like the niners in the NFC if we switch things to the AFC conference bets What are we thinking on that side?
Matt:Man, it's loaded it is loaded this year, right? Like you look at and I you know, we're looking at the NFC and you're like, hey, Tampa Bay, and then who and that's how we land on San Francisco like you look at the betting market the Dallas Cowboys are like sixth in the bed you're like oh my god, like what's going on here? You go over to the AFC and it's a total you know, sweepstakes at this point. So we talked about the Chargers right? And it's funny to me I'm looking at the odds right now and it's like the Chargers in the Broncos have the same odds basically to do things this year. And I look at that and I go listen the Broncos might be okay this year, but the high end possibility isn't really there. Right You can blame you know whether it's Bridgewater obviously to start here. Whether it loc ends up getting getting in there for me again right like the Broncos are going to stay at a level where like if they were worse than like six wins, I'd be shocked if they were better than 10 wins. I'd be shocked where's the Chargers could be anywhere right depending on what happens there. So I really like the Chargers but the other one is as again I'm looking at these odds and I'm looking at them in tears right and at the very bottom of where it sort of becomes okay this team has no chance is the Pittsburgh Steelers and you know this introduces of course the buy low high buy low sell high concept right which we you know anybody who knows anything about betting the NFL knows that buy low sell high is like the you know the absolute you know phrase that has to be said every single episode of any podcast f right like it is it is the app phrase that pays, if you will. So we're looking to buy low sell high on a weekly basis here. But when we get through the summer here, I'm looking at this and I'm going, Okay, hang on a sec. We all beat up the Steelers towards the end of last year because they were this fraudulent undefeated team, right? And if they were like 10, and one or nine and two, we never, they would never have gotten our attention, right? We wouldn't be looking at them going, like, I don't believe in them. We would just be like, yeah, they're not into that sounds about right, right. But it's almost like a bad thing that they went undefeated for as long as they did, because they got people's attention. We start looking at Roethlisberger, he's throwing the ball 50 times a game for upwards of four yards at a time, right, like it looked really kind of gross, they're not able to run the football, then we get to the draft and what do they do, right, cardinal sin can't do it draft a running back in the first round. Now listen, I abject you know, disagree with that, right? Like, I cannot do it. But what's done is done. Right? They have the guy in there. And so, you know, I'd like to think they're going to run the ball more than like five times a game, which is kind of where it got towards the end of the season last year. And so you know, a little bit more two dimensional offense right gonna help Ben Rosberg he's got a ton of weapons. And look at the recent history of the league. Right, Tom Brady? We all thought he was done right? He goes out at home in New England to Tennessee and say, Okay, well, then he goes to Tampa Bay, and we're like, well, maybe and boom, Super Bowl. Peyton Manning couldn't throw the ball further than 20 yards down the field. Boom, Super Bowl, right? Like, this isn't a throwing competition. If this was just who can throw it further? Right. Like there would be a lot of quarterbacks that have been booted out of the league. You know, Jay Cutler, it would be multiple Super Bowl champion, Jacob. I was thinking jamarcus Russell to park down on one knee right, just firing in Super Bowl victories because he can throw the ball seven yards. And it's not how it works. So he's got a ton of weapons there. Then we know the Steelers defense is going to be good. They just always are right. That's some of the parts type situation gone eyes in Pittsburgh, not saying they're going to do it. But when I look at this, and I go there 40 to one, and there's a lot of teams above them, if you will, right with shorter prices for the Superbowl, then I'm just going. I don't trust that team nearly as much right now. Again, they go out in the playoffs last year, because they get just absolutely shell shocked in the first quarter by the browns. And maybe if Mike Tomlin doesn't punt in the fourth quarter, maybe they end up moving on to the next round. And who knows what happens there, but maybe we feel a lot better about the Steelers, you know, as we go into what might be Ben Roethlisberger his final season, but last year, he was coming off elbow surgery. Like I'd like to think that's gonna get stronger. You know, of course, we all we had to do the thing where Ben rossford comes in, in the best shape of his life. But your 15 have been robbed over her drop? downs. Yeah, exactly. So like we're looking buy low sell high, like I'm looking to buy low on the Steelers here a little bit small investment 40 to one for the Super Bowl in the 20s for the AFC again, would you be stunned if they won the division again? Because by the way, they won the division last year. Right. Would you be stunned if that happened? I certainly wouldn't. So for me, that's a that's a little bit interesting down the pipe.
Sheldon:I hear what you're saying with my guy, nachi Harris, but I'm hoping he does. All right. It has a good season just because, you know, I like that. I like that pick by the Steelers. I just think that's an interesting one. And Ben, I'll never be rooting for Ben. Wire. But black, right. I do agree with you. I love this concept. Man. I just love finding the value in somewhere where people might not be looking because you're right. There's so many other teams that are higher profile that will make you overlook the Steelers. But every year when you look up there in the mix, yeah, especially in that division. So when you look up and you say in the mix it plus four, what do you say plus 4004 and a 440? to one that is incredible. So as we continue to try to search for more value plays, right? Another interesting market is always the best record, or the worst record market, right? Which one do you like the most? Which one always gets your interest? Yeah,
Matt:this is my little This is the like diabolical part of me here, right? Like it's the one where you almost have to apologize in advance because we look at the worst. or excuse me the best record in the league market. It's like we know right to have a bay. Yep, makes sense. Kansas City, all of that sort of thing. And it's like, okay, we can bet the record we can bet the Super Bowl. Like I said, we can bet the conferences, divisions, all of that sort of thing, right? That's figured out. The sneaky one to me is worst record. Like that's really fun. Because you're, you know, you're rooting for disaster. Again, a little bit mean, right, a little bit harsh in a lot of ways. But, you know, obviously we all think Houston is going to stink, right? That's just the assumption. Every year we come in thinking one team is going to be absolutely terrible and it's doesn't necessarily be you know, that's not necessarily the case. Sometimes that team wins five games and it's not like they set the you know, world on fire, but they still end up being a little bit better than most people think. And when we're looking at Houston, I go, Well, that's again, pretty sketchy division, they might be able to pull something out. They're, you know, tyrod Taylor, veteran quarterback, all of that sort of thing. Right? And so I'm looking around for something else I'm looking for a team that if one thing goes wrong and again I hate to do that, but we're talking about injuries here. Right? Okay. And so what do you do? What are the what are the teams out there that are just kind of hanging by a thread whether it's quarterback that if he gets hurt Oh God, what's gonna happen next, right. Or you know something else kind of goes wrong to start the season maybe you know, there's some injuries that are piling up before the season even starts. There's a couple AFC Indianapolis right we talked about fading Indianapolis right. Again, what have Carson Wentz doesn't get himself fully healthy. Now it looks like he's going to start in week one yet. We've got a lineup finally in the last week or so, for that game against Seattle. But how long might he last? Right. And then what happens if you're Indianapolis, and we've already seen some other issues from an injury standpoint, looking at the Atlanta Falcons, right, that were fourth worst in the league last year? Right. They picked fourth in the draft. And that was when they had a pretty healthy season. Right like Matt Ryan was fine. And they were still really bad. They turned the defense around in one year. I don't think so. Right. Can you tell me right now who the backup quarterback is in Atlanta. Right. We had a lot of Philippe Franks sightings in the preseason. Now, to be honest, I'm always gonna guess Matt sharp. Yeah, yeah, it should. And it always should be and it might be growing up. But the point is, is like anybody who likes the Falcons this year is going well, because they have Arthur Smith. And they have Matt Ryan to run Arthur Smith offense. It's speaking of running, right. Arthur Smith doesn't have Derrick Henry. He's not walking through that door. Right. So if Matt if something God forbid, happens to Matt Ryan, who you know, getting up in age and all of that sort of thing. What happens to the Falcons, right? It's probably not great. We know what their odds right now are for worst record. 40 to one you like 40 to one for the Pittsburgh Steelers On the plus side. Why wouldn't you like this? Now, again, Matt Ryan doesn't have to get hurt because they were fourth worst in the league last year when he wasn't hurt. I'm just saying these are the types of things that could you know, go awry, right. Even if the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger. That happened a couple of years ago, right. And the defense carried them to like an eight and eight season. So when you look at some of these other teams in that pocket, where you go, Okay, if this guy gets hurt, it's actually not the worst thing that happens, right? Like Minnesota, if Kirk Cousins get hurt gets hurt, there's still a pretty good core around there. Right? So I'm just looking through it and it's like, okay, you know, saints Packers, like at least those teams have backup quarterbacks or stopgap guys, and some infrastructure there, right. And so for me, the lowest, you know, sort of the best price here for a team that things can go awry on are the Colts of 33 to one and the Falcons at 40. To one, right Washington football team. They're at 33 to one but you know, Ryan Fitzpatrick gets hurt, okay, they're in the same spot that they were last year from a quarterback standpoint, relying on their defense in a pretty dicey division where they're still probably at least the second best team in the division. So it's like that's not going to be that big of a deal. Same thing with Denver, right? Teddy Bridgewater gets hurt, like, at least they have drew lock. I can't believe that's a sentence that I just said out loud. At least they have drew lock, but you see what I'm saying? Right? Same thing with the bears, couple of quarterbacks, etc, etc. So you know, that's that little pocket there. 33 242 one, where if one or two things go awry here, right? This that could be a situation where they just go, yeah, you know what, and by the way, like both teams had don't have quarterbacks of the future, right? They'd love it in India, if it was Carson Wentz. But if things went awry, and all of a sudden that first overall pick, was in their sights. Atlanta is down for that, indies down for that you know how well that's gone over the last couple of decades, right of getting Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, like they would be feeling that. So they can also have like reason to kind of, I don't want to use the T word here, but tank it down the stretch. If things go awry.
Sheldon:I got you my dude and so much great information, especially when we're talking about the divisional futures and conference futures and all that fun stuff. But of course, remember, for more of the divisional future stuff, head to drf.com slash sports. Got your breakdowns there, for sure. And of course, we want to know what you also think too, while you listen to this pod. Whether you agree or disagree with anything we're seeing here. Let us know follow the accounts at DRF sports on Instagram, or on Twitter at DRF. underscore sports. But we still got so much more to go over because this is such a fun time of the year. And we're talking futures the other side of this is award season. So let's start off with Coach of the Year because there's a lot of things a lot of different angles you could go with here in the NFL, and it's always tough because you can go with you know, whoever had the biggest turnaround, you can go with the fresh face or you can go with the solid vet. Which way are you looking?
Matt:Yeah, to me, this is a three three different categories for Coach of the Year right. So the first category is called the Bill Belichick category and this is really complicated. Is it do we give it to Bill Belichick this year? Right, that's the category. Because this is the Bron James MVP thing, right? This is the Michael Jordan MVP when they're giving it to Karl Malone. Right. It's like we can't do that. We can't just give it to him every year. Now, obviously, last year, I mean, actually, it might have been some of his best work but like people were like, appalled that they went like eight, eight or seven or nine or whatever they went, right. But this year, right, you've got a key decision. Right? You've got the Cam Newton out Mack Jones thing in so if they end up back, Jones, back Jones, if they'd be good this year, it's like Ray Bill had that he had the guts to do it. He pulled the trigger on Mack Jones. And by the way, right? They're gonna have a really good defense. Are they getting a lot of guys back? That defense is going to be outstanding? Who's the defensive guru since you know the Giants days of the 80s? Bill Belichick right. So if he drags, oh, rookie quarterback and the defense belcheck added again, right? It's the high end way to play the Patriots doing high end things, right? If the if the Patriots pull off the division, like why would you ever bet the Patriots at plus 350 to win the division when you can bet belcheck at you know, 1520 to one depending on where you're looking to win Coach of the Year because if he does, if they get past the Buffalo Bills to win that division, like we're all just going to be gone. Bill's done it again. Like our old favorite thing, right. Brady versus Bella check. I love that stuff. I love right there. Right? That's gonna be back in Yeah, exactly. Right. So that's, that's first category. second category a little bit more serious, a lot more serious, right? What are the major things that you had to deal with? Right? We saw him in the Colts there was, you know, have the whole cancer situation. And Bruce Arians had to take over and it's like, oh, my God, like this was such a rough situation, right? This is a little bit different. In Minnesota, we talked about the Vikings and liking the concept of them to win the division. Mike Zimmer 33, to one to win Coach of the Year. He's a guy who's never won it. But as always kind of been around it. Everybody in the league respects the job that he's done. Veteran style coach, obviously a lot like Bella check, had a ton of success and hasn't gotten this award. And we've already seen like, he's sort of the poster guy here for preseason, just like, Oh my God, this COVID thing is crushing us because like his team's like, you know, half of the team's like anti Vax, and all of this sort of thing. He's got to deal with Kirk Cousins and all this stuff, right? And so if they end up winning the division, it's gonna be like, man, Mike Zimmer, like he got the reins of that thing. And he pulled it together, because think about it this way, again, whether it's the Patriots, or in this case, the Vikings who gets credit for when good stuff happens with each team. Right? Ken says he does really well guess who gets credit Patrick mahomes. Right. In this case, you're not given Kirk Cousins any credit. Nobody ever wants to give Kirk Cousins any credit because frankly, Kirk Cousins rarely deserves any credit. So we're about to do that. Like we cancelled running backs getting any credit right? So now we're dalvin Cook's gonna sit there run for 1500 yards and not get any credit for it. Justin Jefferson couldn't get rookie of the year last year despite an incredible season and a lot of ways you know, 14 games of this season, once they finally let him on the field. And he didn't get enough credit to I was just nervous. The credits gonna go to Zimmer, right and at 33 to one he is way down the list and he's way down the list because of group number three, and group number three is the one that usually works out the most here right and it's first year coaches. You can go and look at the coach of the year award for the last like 20 years. There are some like hilarious names on there. Because guys like Matt naggy came in and for one season like boosted a team all of a sudden right now was that just small sample size was is Matt naggy a great coach. You know, I don't know. So you look at the first year crutches right? We talked about the Chargers Brandon Staley right up there, right. So another high end way, right? Problem is he's 14 to one to win Coach of the Year. And we just talked about their six to one to win the division. So like that's a little tighter, right? Like it's different than the Vikings at 275 and zimmerit 33 to one, you know what I mean? So it's like, okay, I want the way higher side versus like, just the slightly higher side. So I think he, you know, he sort of has to be in the mix there because they're, I think going to be good again, whether they make the wildcard or they win the division, you know, whichever. Nick sirianni with Philadelphia, right? Like, what if they win the division, he's 50 to one because he was having a hard time in his press conference stringing together a couple of words, and we're all like, this guy's not gonna be able to coach and it's like, well, maybe like, again, kind of junky division, right? Nine win team maybe wins the division. He's 50 to one we're talking about some long shot stuff here. So I know I just mentioned four guys, but two of them are pretty big long shots in Xamarin sirianni. And then two of them are more in this sort of favorite ish category in Bella check. And in Staley right. So again, the concept really is okay, I want to pay I want something on the on the positive side of the Patriots this year. What am I going to do? Okay, you know, instead of Matt Jones Rookie of the Year, instead of them to win the division, maybe shoot for Bella check. Again, you could give it to them every single year.
Sheldon:I like that too, because that kind of reminds me of what happens a lot in the NBA, which does happen in other sports where these things become a storyline or a narrative driven type thing. And you can't tell me that after seeing the year Tom Brady had last year that some writer some voters wouldn't be, you know, looking for a reason to be like, Oh, no, no, no, sure. We got to give belcheck some love here too. Right. And I'm not saying that he wouldn't deserve it. I'm just saying the narrative sometimes comes into play when we're talking about these things. Yeah, let's keep things moving. Though. When we talk about the awards Defensive Player of the Year, a lot of different options you're gonna have your regular names your Aaron Donald's and things like that. But who else do you see as being you know, maybe a sleeper underdog here?
Matt:Yeah, so a couple of different things here. Right. First and foremost, TJ watt was my guy last year he ends up leading the league in sacks, right? He's got the numbers to do it doesn't matter. We all understand the Aaron Donald's the best player in the league. He gets a defensive player of the year but so by sort of obligation, I still I have to bet TJ watt again, because of course, he would win it the year after I bet him so I'm pretty much candidate TJ watt for the rest of my life, right? Like I am the fourth watt brother at this point, right? Like empty, what I guess would be the the appropriate one their Defensive Player of the Year. It's interesting, right? Because like I just mentioned like, Okay, if you compare TJ watts sack numbers, and his general numbers to Aaron Donald and he still can't beat Aaron Donald, who is one three of the last four years. Who's the guy who has the Aaron Donald Stephon Gilmore two years ago. Why? Because they play different positions. So you don't get to do it's not you know, it's not an apples to apples thing. It's an apples to oranges. So if Aaron Donald is the apple, we're looking for some oranges out here that can like we can almost trick ourselves into thinking that this this player is better because he's got different stat categories, right passes defensed and interceptions. And you know, maybe there's a pick six or two or something along those lines, right. The other thing with the excuse me, Defensive Player of the Year Award, you got to kind of be famous already like there's no surprise Defensive Player of the Year award. Like these guys, it's all gonna come from guys that we already know. Right? That's why they Myles Garrett's of the world are in there. Chase young, like chase young is an interesting one because we know of chase young since the Ohio State days, right? But like hasn't been in the league maybe long enough to necessarily fit the bill here. So what I'd be looking for other than TJ watt as my the only guy I think that can definitively have better numbers than Aaron Donald. I'm looking for corners. And so I got a cooker in mind. Right? I got to Davis wait for buffalo. So one thing if you're a corner like Stephon Gilmore, you got to be on a good defense. Right? You got to be the guy on that defense. So I think if you asked anybody on the street, you know, NFL fan, Buffalo Bills like Namie a defensive player, the first thing they the first guy they probably say is true. Davis white, right? 50 to one shot for our guy, true Davis. Right. So like, that's the type of thing where it's like if he has a big year, you don't have the numbers to compare. So whether it's Trey white, like you know you're rolling with what I'm saying here, or whether it's some other corner if you're looking to fade Aaron Donald's outside of being obligated as the fourth white brother, I definitely look at somebody on the outside who has different comparative stats who might be able to trick voters, not again, not that Stephon Gilmore trick voters two years ago, but might be able to make you believe that Aaron Donald isn't the best defensive player and maybe the best player in the NFL.
Sheldon:That leads me to an interesting segue into the next award, which is defensive Rookie of the Year. And you're talking about corners. And there's a corner that comes to mind, probably because we're also familiar with his family bloodline, let's say if we're talking about the same person, so Patrick certain the second or junior, that's the one that jumps off the page to me. And maybe it's just from you know, you happen to catch a little bit of the preseason, but, and just living up to the hype of getting the high pick, but who are some other defensive rocks that we should be looking at here?
Matt:Yeah, and it's funny that you say that right? Because this year, it's all the corners, all the new corners are sons of NFL players, right? You got JC horn, Joe horn son, you've got a Sanjay Samuel Jr. Right? Obviously, it's on a Samuel Pro Bowl quarterback cornerback for the Patriots for a long time. All those three guys are interesting options. The problem with certeyn, right? Like he said, it's the first guy that comes to mind for you. Because you know, he had an interception pick six in the preseason, right? Really good defense with the Broncos 30 looking to trade one of their corners, which is kind of hilarious that they, you know, went out of their way to get another corner when that was probably a strength of their team. Probably as everybody else is kind of on top of that from a market standpoint. You seen certeyn you know, hit his number move up to like 10 to one at this point, right? And again, you got to have interceptions, right? You have to get your hands on the ball, catch it, you have to make take advantage of that. And it's so fun with this defensive Rookie of the Year thing where it's like, okay, All these guys need opportunity to stand out because it's not you know, they're not the apex of the league like Aaron Donald. They're just that, you know, there's a subset of guys like one on every team basically, who like has to kind of show out a little bit. And this is where this is the one market that I actually care about the preseason in a really meaningful way about, like you said about certeyn. But again, we need to see something in the preseason, but it also can't be so good that it affects the market that drastically where it changes the numbers. So there's a couple of guys here quidi pay for the Indianapolis Colts now I just said don't really feel all that good about the Colts this season. Cooney pay can have an outstanding defensive season here get a bunch of sacks, and the Colts can lose a bunch of games, right? Those two things can happen separately. So I love him because he's been absolutely tearing it up in the preseason. isanti Samuel Jr. Like if you look at it this way, right? Like, are we positive he and certeyn art basically equals when it comes to, you know, talent level, opportunity level, etc, etc. searchings 10. to one. Samuels, 25 to one, right, this is a simple math problem at that point, right? Really just give me the 25 to one guy, just as much of a chance to have a pick six at some point this season. And by the way, both guys obviously have name brand recognition. So that's really important. So you know, two different ways to go about it right corner or defensive lineman in both accumulating a bunch of stats, you can see the value proposition there from the corner standpoint. But again, preseason, there are a lot of guys, defensive players, linebackers, linemen, who, you know, they get drafted high. And I look at that first round. And I see all of those defensive linemen get drafted. And I'm like, couldn't really tell you the difference between any of these guys, right? Yeah, but we look at the preseason, we go, oh, that guy is ready to play that guy. It's a little bit too quick for him right now. And like that guy's ready to go big time. And to me quickly pay as the guy who's ready to go big time. Speaking of going big time, and I'm thinking when I think big time, I already we yelled the name a little earlier, Mack Jones. But I kind of knew we were coming back here. And as we go to offensive Rookie of the Year, there's a lot of big time expectations, considering just what happened. But considering the draft position, how much is all that plan to a role now when you look at the offensive Rookie of the Year? Or is this just another way to maybe have some vested interest in the Patriots this season? Yeah, I did a ton of work on all of these markets last week for the score. And it's so much fun, so much fun. And so one of the things I did was okay, offensive Rookie of the Year like does draft position matter? And you go through history, and you go, yeah, there's a couple who were number one picks, but not that many. Right? You can go down the list, right. Andrew Luck. Peyton Manning, john Elway, like three of the most sought after like number one, like everybody tagged to try to get this guy quarterback who end up having Hall of Fame level careers. Yeah. And they none of them won the Rookie of the Year. Right. And you know, there's a bunch of other jewboy jamarcus goes, number one, He never says so. You know, he did? A couple of them did, but a lot of them don't. So it doesn't mean just because we've all been looking for Trevor Lawrence for two years now maybe even a little longer. It doesn't mean that he's just guaranteed to win offensive Rookie of the Year. And so the fun thing about the Mack Jones news, right? Is that flips the market and the market, he goes from like 10 to one to like, plus 450. Obviously, way, way, way, way, way too late to bet that now, right? That's something that you would have want to got got on top of before, but it's just like some of these others, right, the Aaron Donald thing that we talked about, you're gonna have a bunch of quarterbacks, they're all gonna put up stats, maybe one team is gonna make the playoffs and we're going to kind of point like, okay, that's the guy. But who's the guy who's going to do something different? Who's the other guy who's going to linger? And the best part about Mack Jones moving up in that marketplace? Is everybody else had to take a tick down? And so we got Kyle Pitts right now at 12 to one in the market. There's a reason thing about your the Falcons right, and you're going okay, we're gonna last we're gonna go one more year here with Matt Ryan, we're not going to take a quarterback with the number four pick. The first three picks, we're all quarterbacks, which means we have every other human being in college football to pick from right at every position. And our defense is atrocious. Right, but what do we do? We pick a tight end, who is frankly, just a tight end and name only. Right? I don't think we're gonna get a ton of like setting the edge run blocks from Kyle Pitts this year. But we've seen him we've seen him basically one play in the preseason. And it was just like his speed off the charts, like right off, you know, popping off the screen type of thing. It's the guy who I think goes for 1000 yards. I think he gets like 10 touchdowns this year, because he's going to get targeted constantly by Matt Ryan, as Matt Ryan, who's just you know, by the way, Matt Ryan can probably see an exit sign here coming here, whether it's from Atlanta or from his career in general. No more Julio Jones. Right. These obviously have Calvin Ridley. He's going to take a lot of the attention especially early on in the season. I think Kyle pits puts up some big numbers. So what if none of these other guys in the quarterback category? What if none of them make the playoffs? Right? That's just a stat category type situation right? If Jimmy g hangs on to the gig, so Trey Lance isn't necessarily doing what we think tre Lance might do. He's not a bad bet, by the way as kind of the lowest on that totem pole because of, you know, time constraints. Zach Wilson right, the Jets are gonna make the playoffs. Jacksonville, right. Unless our 10 to one or 11 to one comes through here with them winning the division, they're not going to make the playoffs. You know, what if the Patriots doesn't work out for them? Right? Obviously tough division there. They don't make the playoffs, et cetera, et cetera. Same thing with the bears. Right. Got to include them with Justin fields. Now, it's just yeah, now it's just a stack category situation right. And who's gonna put up stats, how Pitts puts up a ton of stats this year. And they go You know what, it's about time, right? Like little the tight ends, you want to get paid like receivers, right. So the media, I think, in this case, you know, again, these are the people who voted right there gonna be like, it's time to give tight ends there do, right, we're not Travis kelce. He's never gonna win the MVP. We can do is we can throw Kyle Pitts, you know, a rookie of the year vote here. Titan never has never won Rookie of the Year, I think this year is a very good chance, especially better than 12 to one odds to be the Rookie of the Year.
Sheldon:Interesting, interesting stuff for sure. And lots of different angles to go. And as we close out the award section of this, we talked about MVP. Yeah. Is there a lot of different ways you can go with the MVP? Or is it one of those things where it's like, you know what? It's pretty straightforward.
Matt:Yeah, we do. I mean, listen, if the last 30 minutes of this podcast has taught you anything, it's like we tend to overthink some things sometimes. That's why we're Yeah, exactly. In this case, I think we overthink and listen, you know, people aren't going to necessarily love this. But sometimes we just overthink the idea that like Patrick mahomes is just the best player. He is the you know, he is the the poster boy. It's not like he's won it three years in a row. And we're all bored with him having having done so, you know, we're not going to get a Lamar Jackson type of year, where it's like, oh my god, this guy just sort of took over and blah, blah, blah, blah. Don't I think Patrick Patrick mahomes gonna win the MVP this year. Obviously, the market agrees with me, he is the favorite. But what how I would play this is I'm gonna wait a few weeks. Think about last year, right? I was all about Russell Wilson winning the MVP before the season started and i was growing through write the number you know, 10 to one gets all the way down to like even money. He's the MVP. Like why are we even bother playing the rest of the season for this? Just had him the trophy and then we'll figure out the rest of this stuff later. didn't work out why sample size, right? We have four or 510 games. Somebody is going to have a really great, you know, started the season. Maybe it's Christian McCaffrey, maybe it's something like that. Somebody else to draw everybody's attention away from Patrick mahomes. But once the season spreads out a little bit, and we play our now 17 games season? And again, how do we have a couple of bets on the Chiefs not winning the division? Of course we do. But again, how do we play the chiefs, I don't want to lay minus 300 on their division, I don't want to play them to win the Super Bowl. At the current prices, I only want to play Patrick mahomes to win the MVP at current prices. But three, four or five, six weeks in, we might have some other candidates who get all the attention, and it doesn't mean that they're going guaranteed to win. So we're gonna wait, we're gonna lie in the weeds here a little bit. And then we're gonna finally sort of shoot our shot here with Patrick mahomes. You know, week five, Week Six, something like that, once that once everybody gets a little sour on him, and then we end up getting like a five to one type of a deal. God will swoop in and get down on Patrick mahomes to win the MVP. Watch him do great things. They'll finish 14 and three, and everybody like yeah, of course, Patrick mahomes second MVP of his career, like, you know, what else would we be doing here? He's not going as his odds aren't going to improve in the first couple of weeks, right? Somebody else is going to pop up. We're going to fade that sort of hysteria over whoever that might be. And we're going to grab Patrick mahomes we're going to be a little patient when it comes to that.
Sheldon:I like it. I like it. One other thing that I do enjoy a lot of season long prop futures and there's three different ones that we really like here. Do you want to kind of speed through these a little here so we go passing leader let's start there. What? Who jumps out at you the most in terms from a value prospect?
Matt:passing later? What do we need? Right? We need guys who throw the ball a ton. Do coaches want to throw the ball a ton? No, not necessarily. Right. You need guys who are throwing it from first quarter to fourth quarter. So look at teams who have bad defenses right? You got to throw your way out of this right the Matt Ryan's of the world he's somehow always around 5000 yards not necessarily because he wants to be but because he has to be right. The market a little buy low here, right people a little dicey on Joe burrow, had a little struggles in the preseason coming back from the knee injury etc. who could blame them, but guess what that defense is? Going to be atrocious. There is no reason to bench Joe burrow right. He is the future. So basically we're looking at 17 games, four quarters of just Joe burrow, throwing the ball a ton, right? So a couple of games last year, Baltimore and Pittsburgh where his numbers were really low. Why those teams are really good. But everybody else he played, it was like 300 yards here. 300 yards there. Right. So again, the market a little low on him right now, because of you know, there's some of the shakiness here. But just from a volume standpoint, a lot of these really good teams, Patrick mahomes, for example, might not play the last game of the season. Same thing with Tom Brady, give me a Joe burrow type right in any team that has a quarterback who's gonna have to throw the ball a ton all four quarters, because his defense isn't very good. Jump on that guy. The one exception is Josh Allen, the Buffalo Bills, we just might throw the ball every play this year, and he might be able to get it done.
Sheldon:Fair enough. Fair enough. So that's the mentality for the passing leader. What about the rushing title? What's the mentality like there?
Matt:Well, it's like fantasy football, right? We don't i don't really care who the guy is. They're all kind of the same right? suit, you know, fast, big bulking athletic guys, just is he going to get 200 300 carries, etc, etc. We know Derrick Henry is going to I don't want to bet against Derrick Henry. I don't want bet on Derrick Henry getting hurt because the only way Derrick Henry doesn't win the rushing title is if he gets significantly hurt. He missed a game last year still want it by four yards, right? So like, you can see some of the marketplace having him up at plus 400 I don't say that's free money. But if I told you literally in any of these other conversations that there was a really, really strong likelihood of a plus 400 you know, bet winning. You jump all over that couple of long shot guys. Gus Edwards we saw another running back at hurt in Baltimore. Hopefully it's not contagious. Baltimore, Justice Hill goes down, right. And of course you have you don't have Mark Ingram around anymore. And so Gus Edwards is just sitting there, like on his own JK Dobbins, obviously, for the year. He's just sitting there. He's like, I'm the only guy left in the running back room here. That's what we want to do here in Baltimore. This guy might accidentally get himself 300 carries and 1500 yards here. So again, if Derrick Henry has to miss three, four or five games and it opens it up to somebody else, I want a really long shot. I don't want them McCaffrey at eight one or the Ezekiel Elliott. I don't want any of that. I want somebody real long shot. So Gus Edwards and Damien Harris also another name there for the patriots who could get a ton of carries this season.
Sheldon:One last player prop want to look at is receiving yards.
Matt:Yeah, this one's kind of crazy. I got deep into the weeds from an analytic standpoint, right? Like, what do you want? You want a guy targeted a lot? Right? You got you want a guy who's targeted down the field a lot, right? And maybe they didn't necessarily connect a ton or as much as they should have last year, but at least he's getting looks deep down the field and had some really interesting results. You know, a couple of them were in some of the really obvious ones but for two different reasons. tyreke Hill and davante Adams right davante Adams all the targets in the world, right? But he's getting a lot of yards after the catch type stuff. tyreke Hill, a ton of Aidan right average distance of target, you know, air yards, right stuff deep down the field, not as many targets not as many receptions. But when he gets them, they're really big, right? So he ends up you know, 14 yards per reception. If he gets one more per game at that rate, right, he can catch stefon Diggs who was the leader last year, by the way this market is chaos every year on Jake's was 22 one last year like nobody bet on stefon Diggs new team he's in Buffalo we don't know about Josh Allen at that point and say all of a sudden stefon Diggs when is he gonna replicate that season maybe but I would bet that it's maybe a little bit lower and then somebody else pops up and so a guy like Hill a guy like Adams or two of these sort of you know, second tier type guys that I would look to bet on and in my research and all of this a weird name popped up a guy who you know, sort of set parameters for all three of those categories. Robbie Anderson for Carolina ended up he ended up at you know, being just over the threshold for those three categories air yards, a dot and targets in the period of time that I was looking at, and he's 50 to one and he's played with Sam Donald for the with the Jets you know, he's they're gonna have attention on different wide receivers. They're in Carolina with DJ Moore being kind of the number one guy with Carolina obviously Christian Christian McCaffrey is back so you're looking in the backfield a ton, you might get beat deep a bunch by Robbie Anderson, and he has that sort of connection like they showed in the preseason with Sam Donald. So I was kind of an off the board one that I wasn't really expecting, but it makes a ton of sense that they those guys might connect a lot more than maybe you think and a 50 to one that's worth a couple of bucks, isn't it?
Sheldon:Sure. Why not? Who doesn't like a little sprinkle sprinkle on 50 or one action right. But action starts Thursday night, the opener. Bell season cowboys bucks. I can't wait for this game. It seems like at one point in the summer it's like us football ever gonna start and then now it's finally here. It's like Okay, come on. Come on, come on. So of course, we got to be laying down something on this First game here. What are you looking at here with this game cowboys? Verse bucks open up the season? Yeah.
Matt:And that's the thing too, right? You talk about all summer long. All these week one numbers have been up all summer long, right. And we've seen them fluctuate Up, down, up down. And you know, it was not just because it's the opening night game, but because we've had a bit of a roller coaster ride here with the Dak Prescott injury stuff. Yeah, this number was six, you know, early on six and a half when it opened back in May. And of course, we have this wild ride, and it's like, okay, who's gonna be able to play and is Dak going to be out and it goes up to nine. And it's settled back down to eight here. So I don't love anything when it comes to the spread here. Right? I can't bet Tampa Bay knowing that there was a six, six and a half out earlier this summer, that made a ton of sense for people to bet right there defending Super Bowl champions. And so like, yeah, you know, of course, then you know, of course, that number got to seven goes through seven. To me, that's a little bit much right, going all the way up to eight, or even potentially eight and a half here. Here's what I would do, right? I think Tampa Bay wins this game, you know, do they do so relatively comfortably, I don't really want to be like backdoored here by the Cowboys. I'm going to use this as a tsps. This has six point teaser written all over it. Let's get this number down to two and start just sprinkling away on a couple of different spots over the, you know, Sunday. You know, there's a bunch of two and a half point underdogs you could tease up to eight and a half, there's a couple of minus six, six and a half that you could tease down isn't doing correctly mathematically. You know, and if you need to know how to do that, feel free to ask me. But, you know, like, there's a bunch of different ways a different bunch of different options on Sunday to tease this with I get it started with a little Tampa Bay minus two teaser leg and just start comboing it with a bunch of different plays for Sunday.
Sheldon:I like it. I like it a lot, actually. But it makes me also wonder if we're confident in the Bucs winning, but does that make it a survivor play? Maybe? Oh,
Matt:do you really want to go out on the opening Thursday if something crazy happens, right? It just for that reason, like just don't bother, you know, don't get stay away? Again, you know, we talked chargers right? high ceiling, low floor, all of these different teams who's more high ceiling, low floors and the Cowboys, right? Would you be stunned if like the offense was just absolutely clicking. And you know, a couple of plays go their way the defense is rejuvenated because they you know, they made a bunch of changes on the defensive side, bunch of different players, new coordinator, all of that sort of thing. You know, maybe that gets a lot better. This time. Last year, you and I were talking about the Dallas Cowboys being a potential Super Bowl, you know, quote unquote, Dark Horse, I don't even know if they were that dark of a horse. And so, you know, I'm looking at this going like, hey, it was a disaster of a year last year. They might be okay, you know, I don't you know, I don't love your boy Mike McCarthy. But you know, they might be okay. And I don't really want to walk into that on a Thursday night and be like yeah, survivors over because, you know, Tommy and the guys you know, he threw a couple of pics and you know, Dak Prescott looked amazing and that sort of thing. Right? Like there's there's worse teams that I'll be looking to fade on Sunday from a survivor standpoint.
Sheldon:Matt, honestly, man, I can't believe the NFL season is finally here. I want to thank you so much for joining me on this debut episode of The DRF sports betting podcast just because first stop. If there's someone I needed to call someone that I was gonna call to come join me on this first episode it was going to be so I really appreciate you making the time and stick around a little bit like off the air so I can like beg you to come back on again. But in the meantime, where can people follow you on Twitter men,
Matt:men at em Russ authentic on Twitter for everything that I do over there. A lot of celebrating and commiserating all of these plays, right? We got to celebrate them when we win, we got to commiserate a little bit when we lose, it happens we do lose even the best right? only win 55% of the time. So that 45% of the time we're gonna have a lot of fun, commiserating complaining about some of these teams and these coaches, especially on the Primetime games, how much fun is that? I can't wait to get this thing fired up. And as always, man, like, you know, anytime you asked me to do anything, I'm there for you, brother. You're the best. And this is really exciting project.
Sheldon:Thanks, man. Appreciate you talk to you soon. Thanks to Matt Russell of the score for joining me and hopefully he'll be able to join us again in the coming weeks. But until then, don't forget to catch the NFL divisional previews, upgrade now at DRF comm slash sports. Also, don't forget to follow us on the social media feeds. Because we want to hear from you let us know what you think of the pod. Whether you agree with our picks, disagree with our picks, or maybe the picks made you some money either way. We want to know what you think so let us know. Follow the page on Instagram at DRF sports and on Twitter at DRF underscore sports. But here's the plan. Don't forget, you can catch this the DRF sports betting podcast dropping every Tuesday and Friday. So make sure you're ready for that and like and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Until next time, you can follow me on twitter at Shell Alexander, or on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and until next time, see.
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