Host Sheldon Alexander and betting analyst Matt Russell provide a quick recap of the Thursday Night Football season opener, a Tampa Bay Bucs last-second win against the Dallas Cowboys. Then they dive into their Best Bets for the rest of NFL Week 1 and College Football Week 2.
Host Sheldon Alexander and betting analyst Matt Russell provide a quick recap of the Thursday Night Football season opener, a Tampa Bay Bucs last-second win against the Dallas Cowboys. Then they dive into their Best Bets for the rest of NFL Week 1 and College Football Week 2.
Welcome to the DRF sports betting podcast brought to you by DRF sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports betting podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready, set.
Sheldon:This is the DRF sports betting Podcast Episode Two. Make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. As always, my name is Sheldon Alexander and I'm your host a reminder that we do this twice a week on Tuesdays and Fridays talking football and gambling. This of course is a brand new project for DRF sports and if you're not familiar with us daily racing form has been around for literally over 100 years, giving you all the information data and analysis for your horse racing needs. But now we're taking over the sports betting world as well check out the website DRF comm slash sports right now Scott Grambling has the best betting angles and power trends for your NFL week one matchups including inside info on the Steelers and bills, and of course a big matchup between the browns and chiefs just to name a few in the DRS sports Sunday six back check it out@drf.com slash sports or on the DRS sports YouTube page. But on today's podcast, I'm still hyped up after a crazy Thursday night matchup and where the Bucs failed to cover it against the Cowboys. Hopefully you were on the right side. But I feel like a lot of people are on that Bucs wave. But that's okay, because there's so many more games to get to this weekend, both in NCAA and in the NFL. And for both of those games. I needed some help with my pics. So as always, I try to turn to my guy, Matt Russell and beg him to come on any time he can. And he joins us right now.
Matt:And finally, we are here the NFL season is underway, thanks to a great Thursday night matchup between the cowboys and Fox. And I'm pleased to welcome my guy, Mr. Matt Russell from the score. Who's going to join us to chop up the rest of the weekend in the NFL. Mr. Russell, how you doing, man? Man? I'm fantastic. I'm a little groggy. I'm not sure I've been like up and engaged in a sporting event that late in a little while. Way more way more exciting way more interesting way more fun than I think anybody kind of thought that was going to be but you know, you saw that line right opens minus six and a half what three months ago way back when right? We have all sorts of drama is Dak going to be healthy, blah, blah, blah. And it bumps up to eight and a half. But it never goes back. And that's what we talked with the other day was like, do we want anything to do with this game? From a spread standpoint? It's like, well, we don't necessarily want the Cowboys because we're not sure what we're going to get from them. But once it got to eight and a half, you know, you can get to nine, nine and a half at certain times. It just was unbearable for Tampa Bay, right? And so we talked about Okay, like to sit down like can't imagine them losing this game. Like they kind of almost did, obviously. And that's why we didn't want to use them in survivor, right, we're like, do you want to get knocked out in the first night. And as that second to last kick is going through the uprights, you know, those people who are in certain high level contests potentially, or even just the $10, one at home are sitting there going like, I can't believe I'm going out in the first game here. And so the point is, is like the uncertainty, right, and we didn't know what we're going to get from the Cowboys. But it was really interesting to kind of learn what we might have from the Cowboys considering a year ago at this time, again, like we talked about, you know, kind of thought they might be this Super Bowl Dark Horse, right? And then everything goes wrong for them. And the more I just think about that, more that I have thought about that I just look at that. And I go, could they have been really that interested in that season once DAC went out. And I know obviously the last a bunch of games, at least that offense was flying high and actually looked a lot like the game last night where they were losing games, you know, 3532, that sort of thing. And so, you know, I don't want to say like cowboys are super bowl contenders. But if we're looking at data points here, one game on the road against the defending champions, like what else do you want? Right, like obviously winning the game would be nice, but at least from a contending evaluation standpoint, like that's a pretty good symptom of being a decent team here for the Cowboys. So at least we now know a little bit more about the Cowboys going forward as far as Tampa Bay, we you know, they are who we thought they were right like pretty good team Tom Brady's awesome. Nothing to do there. Yeah, it was great to jump right back into this betting thing on the NFL, because I love betting on the NFL. Right. We worked in sports for a very long time. But I'm still coming at this from the recreational Joe public type angle. I mean, I've watched and consume a lot of football content. So I'm confident in my picks, but even I need some help. In fact, I need a lot of help. And there's another side to this and important side right? The numbers
Sheldon:information, some education, some might even say on where the line is, where it came from, and where it could be going, which was a perfect thing that we watched in the Thursday night game. So we're always seeking value. And what we're going to do here is I'm going to introduce the lines. And then I'm going to tell you what side I'm leaning on. And pretty much Mr. Russell, you tell me where I'm wrong. Because there's gonna be points where I'm wrong. That's kind of how we do this here. Is that sound good, man. I love it, man. Yeah, let's do it. So here's what I'm thinking we'll do a little four down football, we'll deep dive into four games, then run a little two minute drill on the rest of the games and speed through just to give the people as many picks as possible, right. So let's start here. First down, we got the Browns at chiefs chiefs are five and a half point favorites. But let's start with a little stat. And this was actually highlighted in an article that you can find@drf.com slash sports, written by Scott Grambling. And here's a stat Okay, the Chiefs entered a 2021 season opener having won all 13 of their September games since the start of 2017. Going 11 into against the spread in the process. They outscored opponents by an average of more than 10 points in 13 of those games. Now, as I look at the line at five and a half, I'm actually leaning on the Browns here. And this is the fun to me about betting on football. There's so much information, there's so many numbers, and I'm gonna be honest and say Scott knows more than me, but I'm leaning on the Browns here just because of I just see there's value in the line because that line has been moving, hasn't it?
Matt:Yeah, it's funny, right? Like when this first stop posted and all throughout the summer, you know, as we just talked about with the first game of the season, in a start talking yourself into the browns, right? Like they gave the Kansas City all they can handle right? Like what are we talking like? What are we skimming right? And we just had summer you know, people have a pool, what are we skimming off of the top of this matchup, and fundamentally, people are gonna go like, you know, Browns probably could have should have maybe one that playoff game last year, and we're getting some points here and you know, etc, etc, etc. My number here, my raw number is 4.4 in this game, right? So that Kansas City, in theory, based on my ratings should be able to four and a half point favorite. So I'm not that surprised that this number has come off of six, because you look at six, you know, not in traditionally a key number, if you will, but you know, tell me if the game goes to overtime. And if you've got minus five and a half or plus five and a half versus six, you tell me how key six is at that point. And then, you know, I look at this and I go, okay, you know, browns, you know, could win this game, etc, etc. But from a market standpoint and big picture. Is this going to be our last chance to get Kansas City at under a touchdown, right? Like if Kansas City wins this game by two touchdowns, which let's be honest, like put your hand up in the air, if you would be surprised by that nobody's putting their hand up. And so, you know, I'm looking at going like, Is this our one shot here to get Kansas City under a touchdown at home? Right? I mean, obviously, they're gonna be favored on the road and a bunch of different games, and maybe not by that much, right, they've got Baltimore coming up on the schedule, you know, that's going to be an absolute thrill ride from a market standpoint. So I look at it, I go like, you know, it was really basic stuff here. And obviously, the market having moved that number off of six down to five and a half, I think is an indicator that sharp money is in no in Cleveland. But again, I'm looking at my ratings and who knows how sharp they are, if you will, quote unquote, but you know, I would if I was just going off with my ratings, I would make that bet to at plus six. That being said, again, fundamentally, minus five and a half at home with Kansas City, so might be our first and last chance to get a number like that. So you know, I don't have an incredibly good lien or a big pick on this game. And that's probably for the best, but if it stays at five and a half, you know, I'm gonna get tempted into Kansas City here. I
Sheldon:think. I like that. So five and a half, we're leaving Kansas City, if it gets back up to six, we're on the browns. And the interesting part for me as I look and I'll normally talk about eye test type stuff or more sports II type stuff that makes sense. But the Browns in that defensive line proved to follow fall in line with mostly what we seen as a kryptonite. If there is such a thing to mahomes and the Chiefs like obviously that offense is insane. But if you can somehow form a bit of a pass rush, which I think that's kind of what Myles Garrett is about. That is one of the ways that you can at least attempt and I'm tiptoeing around saying attempt to slow down the cheeks because you can't really do that right? But if there is a way so basically that's what we're looking at here. This is the advice at five and a half. We're looking at the Chiefs at six and above. Got to look more at the browns. I liked that I liked that. Second down. Let's go with the Jags and the Texans Jags are in Houston Jags are three point favorites and the Jags favorite on the road. I don't really know like I know that the Texans are in shambles, right? But three points to the Jags based on what exactly like, I'm tempted to take the home dog.
Matt:Yeah, it's, I mean, listen, Tim Tebow might not be around. Right. But this one's about faith. Right? This is, what do you believe in? Right? What do you believe in when it comes to the Jaguars? Right, because like, evidentially, there isn't anything that we can look at and be like, Oh, yeah, like, totally. But you know, other than the fact that like, the Texans are, like you said in shambles, but like they're still starting human beings, right, like, this isn't the puppy bowl. They're not, you know, it's not Jacksonville running around against a bunch of St. Bernard's. You know, that'd be an interesting matchup, admittedly, but like, you know, these are still professional football players, right. And like, yeah, nobody's excited, especially in like the fantasy community about you know, tyrod Taylor, nobody's excited with the three you know, headed monster, if you will, at running back for the Texans or just kind of a, you know, a lack of talent on the outside. But the reality is here, if you're gonna give me three, three and a half points here, or you're gonna ask more importantly, the Jaguars to cover three, three and a half points, having not won a football game since week, one of last year. Now, again, a couple of different players here, different coaches, I know get all of that sort of thing. But we're talking about, you know, we talked to Limbo the other day, right? We're talking about a big bar that they have to get by here, like three and a half points on the road here in some spots right now at three and a half, especially in contest play, potentially, in Las Vegas. worth mentioning. It's I haven't seen anybody who's like, yeah, Houston, like, I'll get in on this. And usually, that's a pretty red, you know, pretty big red flag here. So, you know, This to me is, you know, we, you know, do back in the old days, right, we would talk about the sucker bet of the week, right? And it's not necessarily one that you absolutely have to bet the non sucker side. But it's one where you just might want to walk away, right, you might want to Homer Simpson, this thing into the hedge a little bit. You're clear of and it's funny that, you know, you mentioned this as the second game, because it is kind of the second most interesting game in like, totally the opposite way of Kansas City and Cleveland, right. And so I get why we're talking about it. It's just for me, and you know, sort of lame two games in a row here to not have anything like super strong, but maybe the super strong thing is, it's like don't get coaxed into Jacksonville. Right. And again, they might win, they might win by a billion, and Houston might be as bad as we think they are. But the point is, is we all think Houston's bad, right? You are not sneaking anything by the market here. And you know, being like, oh, Houston sucks, like, everybody knows that. Right? My point is, is like, if they were that bad, wouldn't this number be higher? Like wouldn't you know, given the fact that nobody wants anything to do with Houston? Wouldn't we take this thing up a little bit higher? No, obviously not. Because Jacksonville has a ton of question marks as well. But again, you know, I just don't really want anything to do with this game, because I'm not willing to pay that price on Jacksonville right now until I see it. And we certainly have no reason to think that they can cover a spread like that on the road, they're never going to be road favorites again. So I mean, just think about that for a second. Why would I want to pay that price? Now? You know, when I'm going to get them as a dog and a bunch of games later on this season?
Sheldon:Yeah, like, that's the thing to me picking them as road favorites. Like I just, I don't care who they're playing against, I need to see it first. And I'm gonna say that a lot about this week, because it is week one. And there's just things that it's a lot of chatter, but I need to see it in action. But let's head to third down here. And we're talking the chargers are at the Washington football team. And this line has been swinging back and forth, back and forth. But I have it as a football team minus one. Now, the Chargers were favored in this game, and I was on the football team then. So of course I'm gonna still be on the football team now is it's basically a pickup game. Early fits magic. I mean, there's not going to be a lot of Fitz magic games here. Who knows where they're going to come, but I would feel like they might come early. So I'm writing with the football team here. Tell me why I'm wrong. Yeah, I
Matt:mean, this one, I do think you're wrong. Like it took us long enough to kind of to have that. This is why we're here. And it's not necessarily anything that you said here. Right. It's just my fundamental preseason ratings here. I have the Washington football team rated lower than the market. I have the Los Angeles chargers rated higher than the market, right? So you throw those two things together and it's just it's going to create a bet right? Nothing crazy. Just a bet right? We're gonna win some we're gonna lose some etc, etc. Here, but my numbers have this closer to two point favorites for the Chargers, obviously a little bit worried about the Austin eckler injury here. But you know, they did pretty well. I shouldn't say they did pretty well, but they certainly had some experience playing without him last year, and there's certainly no guarantee that he's not going to play at least at the moment you and I are having this discussion. So for me here it's as simple as you know what if I'm really high on the charges this year, which I am, and I'm not as high as most people are, the market is on Washington. It's kind of a no brainer like I'm I kind of have to bet the Chargers here now the line moves, you know toggling back and forth from one point, that's not really that big of a deal. The The only space where that's a big deal is in the teaser market, right? Because you can, you know, depending on who the one point underdog is, you can bump them up to seven. So if you said to me, you know, if the charges were minus one or minus one and a half, which, you know, they touched at various points in the last couple of weeks, you said, Well, I grabbed Washington at plus seven plus seven and a half as part of the teaser. I'd be like, yeah, great move, like total totally mathematically viable teaser, right? Like that is a plus Ed decision. Same thing now that it's minus one for Washington, if you Okay, you know, I still like Washington to win. But I'm gonna tease this up, because it mathematically, it's the right thing to do, I'm going to grab the charges plus seven, like that's where that matters, right. And so if this tix to minus one and a half, for example, for Washington, and you can get the charges plus seven and a half, that might be the best way to bet this game entirely. But fundamentally, for me, with the Chargers, that 2.8 is the actual number in my ratings, I just have to make that bet. Right. So for me, I'm going to rely on the Chargers here to be as good as I think they're going to be this season. And to get off to a right start.
Sheldon:Can I just tell you for a second, how much I missed this, me getting picks? You tell me Well, actually, what about this, this, this and this? And then I come out on the other end? And I'm like, you know what? You just convinced me. And there are times where I foolishly will not listen, and we'll make fun of ourselves when we do when we if I beg you back on on next Tuesday. And or you'll send me through the tweets and tell me, I tried to tell you, but just being in the moment right now, as I just taken all that information in the numbers. I'm like, Okay, okay, I am switching that pic, and I'm riding with the chargers. I like I like it. Now. Hey, fourth down. This is a big boy matchup. I like to say this is a big boy matchup, he got the Steelers at the bills. The bills are six and a half point favorites. I really liked the points here. And the reason I like the points is because I feel like the Steelers have almost become the Forgotten team. There's so much hype about the bills because of the season they had last year, everyone's on the Josh Allen train. I get that I understand that. But I like the value here with the Steelers, especially early. Six and a half points is a lot of points. And for me, I like that. I like that knowing I will always bet on the Steelers being competent and having a good defense. So let's go I'm in on the points. What do you think?
Matt:Yeah, I'm right there with you. Right, this numbers way too high. And there's a bunch of different ways to handicap football games, right multiple ways to skin a cat as they say, no offense to my cat. Hopefully he's not listening. When it comes to the Steelers here, right? Like we talk, you know, last in the last show about you know, just the idea that like you said there you know everybody sleeping on the Steelers and you know everybody sold out on the Steelers, we're not into the Steelers anymore. So this number is way too high. My numbers 5.6, which again, isn't drastically high. But look at it this way from a market reading standpoint, this game went to seven for like a hot minute, a couple of weeks ago. And it was pounced upon. Right? So when we're looking at you know, a lot of people like to look at percentages and bet money and all of that sort of thing that you know, the different sports books and services release. And you go, okay, like, you know, the fact that everybody is just kind of sitting there waiting for this number to tick back to seven to unload again should tell you all you need to know about what might be the quote unquote right side in this game, right? From a value standpoint, I'm on the Steelers here. The Steelers is an underdog Mike Tomlin is an incredible underdog coach against the spread thing is in his 10 year had that many opportunities if you will to be an underdog, right? He's the ultimate motivator type of a guy you know, they've had the entire summer imagine every single day in training camp like you guys are underdogs to the bills, right like, Listen last last year, they were two and a half point. underdogs I think it was in Buffalo, right? And nothing's really changed from a roster standpoint. The only thing that's changed is you know, Buffalo won a couple playoff games. Both of them were a lot dicier that I think most people sort of remember. And of course Pittsburgh lost their home playoff game to Cleveland. We all just decided that Ben Roethlisberger should retire and Mike Tomlin should be fired, which for that punting decision, maybe he should have been. I might have been guilty of being one of those people. But the point is, is like doesn't this game feel like a game? That's way closer? Because again, maybe like the Cowboys, we've all just kind of buried the Steelers here, WAY WAY too soon. And buffalo might win this game, and they might do so comfortably. But when we're talking about that many points against the Steelers team that is not done yet. I don't think Yeah, like I think this is just a half to take the points type of situation, but I'm like everybody else or not. I shouldn't say everybody else but I'm like that shark money that came in on that plus seven when it was available for like 10 seconds earlier this summer. I'm sitting here waiting for this thing to go plus seven and when I when it does, I'm going to try to pounce as well and hopefully I can get that seven points.
Sheldon:I like it. I like it. Take the points, take the points, love it. Let's switch gears a little here and pick up the little pace. We'll try to get a few more NFL picks in here. Little two minute drill. We won't spend too much time on any of these games, but let's kind of race through here. We got the Jets at the Panthers. Panthers are four point favorites. I like the Panthers weapons and I just can't take the Jets on the road. I will not take them seriously especially with the rookie QB until I see it. What do you think?
Matt:Absolutely. I'm gonna get a little spicy on this one. Right and you know, I don't you know, I don't know how many people out there are survivor people I imagine everybody is because who isn't a survivor pool. This is my pick this week in survivor right? You got to say when other people are zagging. I fully expect some of these other seven and a half ish point favorites to be more popular. But you got it you know, he said he had a zag when other people are zigging. And so my number here for Carolina is 5.6 as they should be favored by 5.6 you saw that number obviously 5.6 isn't a real number but you know five five and a half and you saw that number get to five you know took a leave in Cameo appearance at five and a half even there were some sixes as a as well but I can understand why people would want to grab six with the Jets here fundamentally here you know listen, rookie on the road quarterback coach, you know half the Jets team the Jets defensively, I don't think it fixed anything. I think Carolina is going to have the sort of surprise offense this season maybe it's not gonna be that much of a surprise with offensive coordinator, Joe Brady that everybody loves so much. So you know, maybe it's you know, temper the the concept of a surprise. But yeah, to me, it's Carolina here and I don't even really mind laying the points. Obviously, we're gonna try to lay as little as possible when it comes to the points. There's the three and a half's available now right and so I would take that and I would hand that to the jets and say you know what, if you two guys you know Wilson and Sala can beat me on the road as rookies in your position. more power to you.
Sheldon:Totally agree. Let's keep things moving. We got the Cardinals at the Titans. Titans are three point favorites. I'm noticing a trend here but I'm on a lot of home teams, but three seems kind of low here to me. Am I the sucker and I referencing that? Not knowing your answer, but I feel like this is almost too easy.
Matt:Yeah, it's funny right? Like my numbers make Tennessee 4.4 right. So they should be favoring by 4.4 or 4.5 year round to the closest actual number. But this is one where I'm gonna go against my own numbers here. I like taking the points here with Arizona again. I feel like this the game they can win outright. I'm going to have the the Cardinals and money line as a money line underdog here and Robin parlay type stuff going on here. You know we saw in the summer right to Julio Jones asteria. This summer is hilarious when it comes to football, right? Julio Jones gets traded, and it's like, well, season's over, we'll look out for Tennessee, and like the, you know, people are photoshopping him with AJ Brown. Like, you know, they're in a buddy cop movie, like back to back like both looking super jacked. And it's like, well, this team can't be stopped. Well, you know, of course, Julio Jones, you know, banged up? Do we know if he's going to play is he going to be all that relevant, all of that sort of thing. And and all of this, right, the line for this game that has existed all through this time never really moves, right? It doesn't go up to three and a half or four people, you know, the market, or at least sportsbooks. Look at that move and go. Okay, right. And that's the difference between, like you say, Joe public getting all excited about Julio Jones. And then the actual point value to him being on the team relative to a replacement player, right, like a Corey Davis, right, the guy who was in that spot last year. So long story short here, you know, I don't know that there's necessarily all that much of a home field advantage here. So while that is built into my number, I think that might cause a little bit of a flaw here in my number, and so I'm going to take Kyler Murray, that whole crew, I think they're going to show some improvement on defense, whereas I'm not that sold on it from Tennessee. I think Tennessee might take a step back offensively, whereas Arizona might take a step forward offensively, both of these coaches, I don't necessarily trust to make the right decisions. When it comes to fourth downs and timeouts. You know, maybe have a little bit more faith and rabl here. But again, if you're gonna give me three full points here, I'm gonna take my chances with the Cardinals.
Sheldon:Now, that's fair, I understand that I understand that I'm rolling. I'm gonna roll here early on with the fresh air kenri and see what's going on here if they can just pound the rock, so to speak here early on and see how that's going. But let's keep it going. We got the Eagles at the Falcons. Falcons three point favorites. I don't know what to make of Jalen hertz in the Eagles this season. But I do know that they went out and got Gardner Minshew and I'm just kind of counting down to when we will see Gardner Minshew because that kind of tells me their confidence in Jalen hertz, but with that said, you've discussed a lot the Falcons and how you're viewing the Falcons and I like the Falcons, getting three or laying the three points. Like Falcons with three, I kinda like that.
Matt:It's certainly a lot more attractive than the three and a half. But it's been all season long, right? But you look and you see, okay, well why did it go from three and a half to three? Did anything happen? No, not really. Right? Everybody just decided okay it's like eagles at three and a half and really more and listen like you remember last year right? Like what was our one of our number one tenants? If the Falcons our favorites, go the other way right now we can blame Dan Quinn for that as we as we love to do last season. But like that's kind of the exact same situation here. Now, you know, I don't necessarily know what to expect from Eagles like you're right about the minute you think that's very concerning. Like why would you need a new quarterback if you had that much faith in Jalen hertz and even Joe Flacco didn't look atrocious in the preseason. Maybe that's just perfect Joe Flacco time. I think, you know, you hear murmurs out of the Eagles camp that their defense and a defensive coordinator might be one of those guys, right might be one of those next, guys. And so I think the Eagles have a better chance of having a good defense, or at least a better defense than the Falcons who I don't think any chance of having a good defense. You know, me I'm on the Kyle Pitts train, as far as the Falcons are concerned. Does that mean I wanted to start laying points with that Falcons team and Matt Ryan? No, not necessarily. This feels a lot like that Arizona, Tennessee game, right? where it's like, if you're just gonna give me three points, or three and a half points as it was for a really long time there. I'm gonna take the Eagles, I'm gonna grab the Eagles gonna throw them in those moneyline parlays. Right with the Cardinals with the Steelers with a couple others that I think we're going to talk about here pretty soon. Yeah, again, give me the points. I think a relatively offensive game here relatively high scoring game a little worried that the total has not moved off of 48. It has stayed there all summer long. And I think that's because maybe there's some credit being given to the Eagles defensively here that we aren't necessarily seeing just yet, which we might see on Sunday.
Sheldon:I'm gonna be honest with you, and I'm getting severe flashbacks to us doing previous pods and me just being like, Wait a second. What am I doing? Take the points. Take the point. You got me lean in here. You got me lean in here. I can't lie to you. Another game I'm super interested in the Packers is four point favorites on the road against the saints. But this game is in Jacksonville. lots going on. lots going on in this game. Right? But the saints this season, right? Let's keep it football and on the field for a sec, right? This ain't on like this season. To me, there's so much influx, if you're gonna try to tell me what you expect from jameis Winston this season, and how that's gonna play out. I'm not really sure, but now having to play your home games in Jacksonville. And then they chose Jacksonville because they're trying to get away from the possibility of having too many Packers fans at the game. Like that's just like there's too much going on. Right? Look for me, for me. Yeah. And I kind of know, because I'm familiar with your work I'm familiar with right now. You have to talk me off legends at certain points, right? Yeah, I'm just wanting to ride with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers here just because there's too much going on with the saints. There's too much influx and Packers Packers Packers. But tell me why.
Matt:Yeah. Well listen, you said you want to start on the field? Under no circumstances. Am I starting on the field?
Sheldon:Oh, you remember to remember TLC? The band like the group? Your them? Don't go chasing waterfalls man.
Matt:Exactly. Well, maybe not quite right. This one for me is the red light special for all those old TLC heads out there. Right. One great track. This is this is the one and listen shout out to Lisa, the late Lisa left eye Lopez who burned down her boyfriend Andre ryzen, former NFL wide receiver burned down his house. Shout out to her. You know, feel free to go down and Google deep dive when it comes to that. Yeah, the red light special man. And what is that? Right that that is the game that first of all I like the most, but it's also the one that I'm going to get into the most arguments with, right that people are going to be surprised when I sort of lay down, you know, my beliefs with regards to this game. And so we're gonna you know, you can blame Lisa left eye Lopez, you know, we're also going to blame here or at least we're going to credit or however you want to put it. Tom Brady, like, what, what does Tom Brady have to do with this? So think about it this way the off the field stuff right. Aaron Rodgers obviously wants out of Green Bay right now Tom Brady, he wanted out of New England, he just did it way better, right? They started negotiating outs in the contract, so that he could really like there would always be these reports and nobody would really take them that seriously or believe them that that significantly, but there'd be these reports that like oh, Tom Brady, like he's, you know, they restructured his deal and be like, Oh, why do you do that? It's like, Well, you know, like, so there's cap relief if you wanted to leave as well. He's never gonna want to leave. Right. Aaron Rodgers does it the exact opposite way. He's like, give me all the money give me the huge contract extension and then I'm going to tell you that I want out a year later and so you go like why did these guys want out right? Why? Tom Brady, one of these guys know better than anybody else, what their team is. Right. And so for Rodgers, like, if things were so great in Green Bay from a team structure standpoint, now we all look him to go like, well, if they drafted Jordan love and like he's so mad about that, well, you know what Jordan love will never play as long as Aaron Rodgers is winning MVP. So who cares, right? It's like, well, they could have drafted him a receiver or, you know, some more weapons. Like, when is Aaron Rodgers ever needed, you know, weapons that, you know, he couldn't just make good, right. Aaron Rodgers does, right. So like what's and he's got davante Adams, right. Like, obviously, that's good. And why is davante Adams want it? Right? Well, he wants to because Aaron Rodgers wants it like none of these guys aren't willing. You know, they're willing to make it work for one more season. Right? They're doing the last dance thing yada, yada, right. Do I think they're not going to try? No. But what I think is that they know that this team is headed on the downturn. Right. And I'm looking at the offensive line, right, literally the most important thing for as much as we talk about weapons. The most important thing to Aaron Rodgers is that he doesn't get absolutely smoked when he's not looking. Well, who's protecting his blind side because it's not David Bach, Dr. Because he's injured, who's making the line calls on protections because it's not Corey Linsley because he left via free agency in this offseason to go to the Chargers, one of the many reasons why I like the Chargers this year. And so, Roger is sitting there going, like we're starting to rookies on the offensive line, and I don't have my left tackle. I don't have all the guys if you want to throw in, you know, Brian Bulaga from back in the couple of years ago, he doesn't have those guys that are there to protect them. So how many swing passes to davante Adams and how many jumps to Aaron Jones are going to provide you with wins this season? Probably a fair amount because you're still Aaron Rodgers when we're talking about a team with the saints. So Tom Brady, he's back again. For the reasons on the saints. We're blaming jameis Winston because he threw 30 interceptions in his last year as a starter on a Tampa Bay team whose coach literally has a mantra no risk. It's no biscuit man loves to risk it right so I'm gonna beat up jameis Winston because this guy loves risking it like it's possible that it was just a bad fit for James right that when he was risking it, it didn't work out and because Tom Brady comes in it's like while they're super bowl team now Jamie's mistake, because we're comparing him to Tom Brady. The best ever do it? Like what what kind of bar again? What kind of bar is that for poor James now he doesn't just go to Jacksonville or Denver or whatever. He goes to New Orleans and he takes less money to do so. And he knows that Drew Brees is on his last legs or more specifically shoulder and he knows Sean Payton infrastructure offensive quote unquote genius right can make stuff work. You can make taysom Hill functional as a quarterback if necessary, right. And so to me, this is just so much better of a fit for Winston where he can take a couple of shots deep better schemed up that he's not forcing things right. There's no no risk at situation here. When it comes to Shawn paste Sean Payton. He's got Alvin Kamara last year, Alvin Kamara had guess how many receptions against the Packers now I'm gonna make a guess? Because it's impossible to guess. Yep. 13 catches for 130 yards last year, like insane, right? And they only ran the ball like, you know, single digits to come era in that game. And what we've learned since that game, which was early on in the season, is that the Packers run defense was atrocious, the rest of the year, right. And some of that is by design because they'd rather just have everybody rather have teams run the ball, then throw the ball. And so I'm looking at this game going like Winston's got Kamara who you know, out of sight out of mind, because he didn't play in the preseason. And then yeah, we're not thrilled with the weapons that he has on the outside because we don't you know, they're not household names, but like, what did Michael Thomas do? That was all that great last year, right? And they still made it work to the tune of a home playoff game, that maybe if Jared cook doesn't fumble against Tampa Bay, we're having a completely different conversation about you know, where the saints ended up being at the end of that year, and certainly where the Bucs ended up at the end of that year. So you know, I just look at this and I go on offensive line for Green Bay not very good offensive line for the saints really good. So we're talking jameis Winston with some time back there and with a you know, a safety valve if you will, in both Kamara and his coach to scheme him up some open throws which James can make right he can make open throws a lot of pro quarterbacks especially ones that won the Heisman Trophy and that were drafted first overall can make so for me you're gonna give me for it was at four and a half at one point. So there's a little bit of an indicator there that that came off of the four and a half. I've liked this game all season long whether or all summer long, I should say whether it was three point home dogs whether it's four points on the road, the Jacksonville thing doesn't bother me all that much. Yeah, I mean, give me the saints here all day money line every single which way.
Sheldon:Again, there's a theme here and if you're paying attention, I've been converted the last few games here. And the theme continues. Take the points. Am I wrong? Am I right? Like, yeah, I mean, not not by rule. But yeah, no, no, no, no. Pause, take a stop. Yeah, full stop here. I'm just talking about as we discussed these last few games here. Sometimes I'm noticing the trend that I had to catch myself on. It's like, Hey, we're on a run here. Let's just you know, notice the theme acknowledge the theme here as we keep things moving here, right. Speaking of though, bears, let's move on primetime games. We always love that people always love sitting down and you're either chasing or you're you're trying to add on to your winnings, right. But bottom line, bears at the Rams Rams are seven and a half point favorites. And again, there's a nice very good breakdown here on drf.com slash sports from our guy Scott Grambling. He says the under his tenant Oh, in games, the Rams have played as a favorite since the start of the 2019 season. with eight of those 10 games having been played in Southern California. The under is hit in each of Las past five regular season games against NFC North opponents, which each of the past three of those having been against Chicago, the bears have scored a combined total of 32 points over the past three games they played against the Rams. That last part there is pretty interesting to me. I think that's kind of the main, the main focal point there because my analysis here on this game, right? It's not gonna be as in depth as Mr. Grambling so I appreciate the work that he does for drf.com slash sports. My analysis here is how long is it going to take for Aaron Donald to end the Andy Dalton era?
Matt:Yeah, right. Like I picture this game and just like Aaron Donald just clunking two heads together on the bears offensive line, having them topple over. And then him just absolutely run over. Andy Dalton, right. Like the bears cannot block you know, offensive line is just a mess. Right? And you know, interesting, interesting stats certainly on the under there. It's funny cuz I can picture each one of those three games against the bears, right? We had Jared Goff a couple years ago just in the cold you knew right there. We have to be fading Jared Goff in the cold for till the end of time, right last year. I think the bears the only points they scored from a at least the only touchdown that they scored was a defensive touchdown again, right like fumbles that kind of thing. So you know, I don't hate that from you know, conceptually. But you know, the Matt Stafford era right like we're gonna see a little bit more offense here from the Rams and I think we have before it right Sean McVeigh, you know, getting to open up the playbook, right? You even saw and I'm getting I'm thinking of that game last year where it's like, once they got up to touchdowns on the bears. It was like, All right, let's just shut this thing right down, right like hand the ball off. you're handing it off to literally anybody we could find, you know, on the on the Rams sideline, other than having Jared Goff throw the football, right. And so now it's like, well, we trust Matt Stafford to make throws me I trust Matt Stafford to run the offense. I mean, to me, this is Rams or nothing in this game. I don't know that. I love the total because again, this could be Rams by a ton. I think, you know, we think of the bears as a you know, a defensive team. Part of that is because the offense is so bad a lot of times. Yeah, this year, I think I just don't think they're very good on defense. Right. I think that there's, you know, some age issues happening there. The secondary I don't think particularly good. And so I think the Rams are going to score the ball a ton here. You know, you can tease this thing if you want, you know, obviously, a lot of things are going to be tied to the Sunday night game, right. We know that about the betting public. Normally the Sunday night game, because it's a little bit more of a competitive matchups, usually like a three point favorite one way or another, you can kind of figure out where there's value going to be because, you know, the public likes to bet on one side or another for that Sunday night game, in this case, right? Like how high could this number possibly go here for the Rams? My number is eight. So I think it's you know, about right here, whether it's whether it's seven and a half or eight. You know, I'll be looking at the Rams here, not necessarily by a ton here. But one thing that I would look for here from a in the props, because Sunday night like to get a little looser when it comes to you know, prop betting and that sort of thing. cocomat Oaks, I think early on in the season, there's gonna be some value on betting Cole coming over, you know, whether it's yards or whether it's receptions, right, he's a guy who came into the fold a lot towards the end of last year. And if you look at like Andy Dalton, for example, right? The Blake jarwin of the world became fantasy relevant when Andy Dalton took over for the Cowboys last year. You know, you'll remember Tyler eifert from the Bengals days, right. You know, my my guy Andy likes his tight ends. There's certainly a slew of them in Chicago, but I think cool committee is going to get the majority of the snaps here once things get going. And if they're going to be behind, they're gonna be thrown at a ton. might as well throw it to the young Notre Dame guy. In your player cool combat.
Sheldon:Okay. All right. All right. I'm excited for that game. And I'm also excited for the Monday nighter, which is ravens at the Raiders. Raiders are sorry, the Ravens are four point favorites. But I like the Raiders at home beforehand. But now you add an even more injuries for the Ravens team that already had their backfield decimated. And then now another running back goes down. Marcus Peters also goes down on their defense. Just Is there any chance here that you would be looking at this game? and not on the Raiders as home dogs?
Matt:Probably not. Have you told DRF that this is your last podcast with them? Because you're going to be playing running back on Monday for the Baltimore Ravens. That seems that seems to be the situation here. Like you're gonna we're hitting calls any minute now for our guy Sheldon to get in there and tote the rock a little bit right, just you know, a couple yards in the cloud of dust. Right? everybody follows Lamar. And you just get some open fields. And hopefully you don't tear an ACL because literally everyone is and it's starting to look really dicey. Right for the Ravens. And so, you know, I haven't I don't have any investment on the Raven. So I'm not sitting back going like, oh, but you know, this just might be one of those years. And just the fact that they lost their first three running backs, which, you know, for a lot of teams not that big of a deal, right? We watched the Cowboys throw it literally all of the time almost yesterday, and it's like, yeah, they have paid a lot of money to Zeke, and they have Pollard and it's like, but if he got hurt, like, did you notice that he was even out there? Like I didn't, right kind of forgot a you know, multi 10s of millions of dollars are going to that guy, he's not really doing anything. My point is, is that's not how the Ravens want to play. Right? And so this game even before these injuries really felt like one where it's like, first full Stadium in Las Vegas. Feels like there's gonna be some weird stuff potentially happening. You know, the Raiders are just such a mediocre team, right? They'd like there's sort of a baseline that we're gonna have expectation for the Raiders. That it's like, okay, I kind of know what the Raiders gonna do, right? Like, I don't know, they're not gonna get blown out here. Derek Carr is not gonna throw a bunch of interceptions, and it's not going to get out of hand because that's just not what Derek Carr does, right? He will throw the ball away. He's very conservative in that way. So he's gonna keep them in every game that they're in when you look at the Ravens and they want to run the football so three running backs being out and now you're pulling lady on Bell off the scrapheap? You know some gentleman by the name of t. Williams. I like I'm unfamiliar with his oeuvre, right and then potentially Sheldon Alexander should things you know, should another guy blow out at me. I'm like, okay, so if I think the Raiders are going to hang in there and potentially take an early lead I'm looking for the Raiders first half and then in theory, I would think about backing the Ravens and the second half but like I don't ever want anything to do with the Ravens in comeback mode. Right like they are you know they are the bully on the block right they will run it right down your face and they will stand over you and they will laugh right but if they don't have the guys to run over you know your face with then what happens right then Lamar is gonna throw the ball a little bit more and things get a little dicey now, I don't trust the Raiders defense all that much. Right? Like why would I? That being said, right, like, this feels like that one game right? And like, we can call it like the one night in Vegas type of a game here. This time. It's literal. Because it's in Vegas, where you're just you go out and like you wake up the next morning and like there's a couple hours that you can't really trace to what you were doing necessarily, or where you were, you know hangover style and you're like somebody take some pictures. Somebody can you know with somebody with me? Can you tell me where I was between the hours of blank and blank? This is one of those games are on Tuesday we're gonna be like, I don't know what happened from like nine till 11 last night. But somehow the Raiders won that game like that just feels like that game now I realized that's not really you know, a ton of analytical evidence there to get you all that excited about this. And listen, ever all things being equal. I have ravens minus 5.2. As you know, with my ratings, it's not like there's a ton of value necessarily and who knows how to rate the lack of running back situation here. But yeah, I mean for me like I can't bet the Ravens certainly not I'll be looking for a first half on on the Raiders maybe even get a full three on the first half. That would be squeaker but yeah, to me it to me, it's it's Raiders or nothing.
Sheldon:I like it. I like it. And for our first like Friday pod. I like this kind of flow. We got going here. We're hitting a bunch of NFL games or games that you know we have either strong takes on or games that we want to make sure we get in. But we also want to be able to fit in some NCAA because college football still is massive, massive, massive and so much fun. So let's mix in a little bit of college football and a little campus rush here. We got some big games this weekend. Give me just your quick take on these games here. Iowa at Iowa State Iowa State Four and a half point favorites. What do you got here? Yeah.
Matt:If you think we were going to get out of this podcast without talking about the Seahawk, you are sadly mistaken. All of our listeners out in Iowa, shout out to them. This Is it right? This is the Game of the Year in Iowa. This isn't so interesting, right? Because the, the cyclones are favored by four and a half points. And if you just did the thing where we look back to last week, and this and the cyclones are barely getting by Northern Iowa for the millionth year in a row, it seems and Iowa is just picking off Michael penix for Indiana, they get a big conference win, right blow out and you go blow out here really tough time here. And Iowa State is the one who's favored by four and a half points who by the way, like basically never be it's Iowa. So like, why is this number so high, but like, you know, ratings are ratings and they are what they are and you don't want to get too high or too low based on one game here. So I don't have a massive lien because fundamentally, I would say just take the points with Iowa like I want Iowa State to show me right. I want Matt Campbell to show me that he can beat Iowa and do so relatively handily and and measure up to those expectations. That being said, right, like the number is trying to tell you like Iowa State should win this one and relatively comfortably. It's just not something that I want to get too deep into.
Sheldon:I like it. Uh, what about Oregon at Ohio State, Ohio State, 14 and a half point favorites. Are you are you rolling with the Ohio State University?
Matt:I'm definitely not doing that. I'm not so get on CJ Stroud. Um, you know, they got away with one I felt like against Minnesota because they were able to get big plays, right? Every time they scored a touchdown. It was like 60 yard touchdown, a guy is running through the secondary, like a Swiss boy through a meadow, and just having the time of his life and all of a sudden, he's in for six. And you're like, oh, nine, Minnesota like grind, grind grind and like they would score. And so you know, I wasn't that impressed with CJ Stroud. The big thing here and wasn't not breaking any news here. kayvon Thibodeau, right, probably the best player on the field, Oregon defensive lineman, is he going to play? Is he going to be effective? Because if that's the case, then I think Oregon has a chance here to keep this game close. Again, I'm the weirdo who looks at this line and goes like, yeah, 14 and a half. Like, that looks really good. But like, Why are you giving me that half point? Right? Like why? Like, you're just begging me to take Oregon here, aren't you? And like, yeah, I probably am. Because I'm not that high on CJ Stratton. I think the Oregon defense won't be giving up the big play touchdowns, and we're gonna force CJ Stroud here to like, get, you know, matriculate the ball down the field, if you will. So like, yeah, I'm gonna take that but like, I look at that number. And I'm like that suspect you guys are you guys are sneaky over there in the spin sports book land.
Sheldon:very sneaky. very sneaky. And that's why it's on us to try to find that little value. Find our little ends where we can get them. What about Utah at BYU? BYU? Home dogs to the tune of seven points.
Matt:Yeah, holy war. Holy War alert. Again, right? This is the sky Hawk version of Utah at this point, right? How am I not supposed to take the seven points at home with BYU? Right, like, again, things that I'm going I feels like I'm getting suckered into here, right? Taking the dog and all three games just feels like somebody coaxed me into something that maybe I shouldn't be involved in. Right. So like, again, this is a this is the cliche let's roll some cliches out here right throw out the records like throw out the numbers and these two get together all of that sort of thing here so yeah, I'm like you're gonna give me a full seven here in the holy war I'm gonna take it you know it doesn't matter you know, whether it's Utah at home whether Utah's getting the seven on a you know, a good season for BYU, whatever, whatever. Like I like you know, Utah this season. This is not me saying like Utah is overrated or anything like that. But like, if you're just going to give me a seven points here in an absolute fistfight like I'm going to take them.
Sheldon:Okay. Okay. NC State at Mississippi State, Mississippi State. Also underdogs. Two and a half points. What are your thoughts here?
Matt:Well, full disclosure and take everybody behind the curtain. Is this a big game? No, not really. But did I request it to be in the category of big games? Yes, I did. Right. This is the only thing I was like. Hey, can we include this in big games this week? One is nice to get to a fourth big game. Listen, I think there's a very good chance NC State is sneaky. Really, really good. Right? And I listen, I am on the fate of Mississippi State train and I have been for a while worked out nicely. Congrats to them for making like a three touchdown comeback last week against Louisiana Tech at home ringing up the cowbells as though they accomplished anything should never have been that close. We were fine taking the billion points that we had with Louisiana Tech. So yes, I mean, I if that doesn't happen, we would be probably getting NC State as an underdog. But as long as we're getting it under a field goal, I'm happy just kind of riding out this NC State train here to see where it goes. Now maybe I'm wrong. And maybe they don't end up giving Clemson a game down the road and have that sort of opportunity as the second best team in the ACC. I'm just willing to find out and I'm willing to find out with the team that I are in. I'm already interfacing here in Starkville with Mississippi State.
Sheldon:Alright, so that was for our big games, but people love getting more pics so let's get them some more pics in a quick fashion a little something we call the Hurry up offense. What else do you got for the people?
Matt:Sure actionable content, right people love it. Florida Atlantic minus seven. Last week we were on them against Florida. They they just hung in there. I think they're better than they may have looked last week and I was sort of quote unquote proud of them for being able to score a little bit against the Gators. They're I think they take care of business this week minus seven records under a touched or under a field goal. Excuse me. I don't understand why that's the case. I think records actually might be pretty good here. Records minus two and a half to play there. Illinois, a team that I've been sort of bouncing back and forth on right like I was on them against Nebraska. I faded them hard last week against UTSA I'm gonna be back on them right? I'm not gonna blame them for that UTSA loss because I think UTSA is good. So if the markets gonna blame them, and they're gonna make them 10 point underdogs at Virginia. I'm fine with that. I'll take Illinois plus 10. Then there's sort of a conceptual one, right? There's a bunch of teams that have really big games last week, right? Really big brand names, and now they have to play kind of lower competition, specifically against the Mac. So Miami of Ohio plus 19 and a half Ball State plus 22 and Toledo plus 17. They are all playing teams that played really really big games. And you know, either came close to winning in the case of Minnesota, or one in the case of Virginia Tech or went to overtime super late in Tallahassee in the case of Notre Dame, right very sleepy spots, the following weeks are going to take all the underdogs in that situation. Tennessee plus three and a half at home against Pittsburgh. Not sure we know enough about those two teams to know that Pittsburgh should be a road favorite. And my absolute favorite one. Unfortunately, this is one where it's like you know what, just make the bet go to bed wake up the next morning and hope for the best Hawaii plus 11 at Oregon State. I don't know what Oregon State did to deserve to be double digit favorites here. Last we saw of whoa whoa of Hawaii in a meaningful way. They were getting trucked by UCLA. Guess what UCLA is really really good. Oregon State isn't we got a money line here potential of like plus 300 with Hawaii and try them on the money line. certainly going to take the 11 points in a wake up. Hopefully our accounts are flush with cash.
Sheldon:I love it. I love it. action, action and more action as always brought to you by Mr. Matt Russell, thank you so much for joining us again, given us all the ins and outs and the added information that I need to help me with my pics, we got you covered with NFL and some NCAA action. And of course for any live movements, make sure that you go to drf.com slash sports for all the information or line movement that could happen between now and kickoff. But for you Mr. Russell, anything else that we might have missed or that you might want to give out to the people where would they be able to find that on social media? Yeah,
Matt:everything on my Twitter feed right at em Ross authentic, I'm linking to articles from my work over at the score and also just handing out pics and then we'll just lamenting those pics, right celebration. And commiseration is what we're all about. To celebrate the wins, we're gonna commiserate the losses, we're gonna do all these things together. And we're gonna have a great time doing it cuz it's football season. And honestly, on a week to week basis,
Sheldon:I'm just jacked up about it. so fired up. And I love it so much too. And if you want to hit us up, let us know where we're wrong, where you think we're right. Anything you want to hit us up with about any of these games do so on social media. But again, Mr. Russell, thank you for joining me man. Really appreciate it. Always a pleasure, my friend any time. Thanks again to Matt Russell, the score for joining me here on the podcast and what more could you want some NFL picks some NCAA picks, we got you covered no matter what. But for more information, don't hesitate to go to DRF comm slash sports or follow us on all the social media feeds. We want to hear from you, if you like what we said he didn't like what we said. But also to get more DRF content. Let us know and follow on Instagram at DRF sports and on Twitter at DRF. underscore sports. That's all we got for this week. But remember, you can join us here on the DRF sports podcast twice a week, Tuesdays and Fridays. We got you covered. So I'll be right back here and if you need anything from me, you want to trick me on the pics Tell me where we all make some money. You can follow me on twitter at Shell Alexander or on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander. That's all we got for now. But until next time, see ya.
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