Host Sheldon Alexander and betting analyst Matt Russell recap NFL and NCAA weekend, including paying the Chiefs tax, Injuries affecting the betting market, not overreacting to 0-2 teams and of course some Thursday Night Football Picks.
Host Sheldon Alexander and betting analyst Matt Russell recap NFL and NCAA weekend, including paying the Chiefs tax, Injuries affecting the betting market, not overreacting to 0-2 teams and of course some Thursday Night Football Picks.
Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander, ready, set.
Sheldon:This is the DRF sports podcast episode five, make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sean Alexander. And a reminder, we do this twice a week on Tuesdays and Fridays talking football and gambling. We're fresh off of week two of the NFL season and after attendance six week, I'm sitting at 21 and 11 on the year and I'll take that pics wise for this which is a brand new project we've been doing for DRF sports. If you're not familiar with the letters DRF well, daily racing form has been around for over 100 years giving you all of the horse racing information, data and analysis. Now we're taking over the sports world. So if you want coverage on every football game, and also the NBA MLB and more, head to DRF comm slash sports for all the details and insights. The site has all the data on every game including offensive and defensive stats, betting angles, line movements, key injuries, head to head records and team stats. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. If you want to see the trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. If you want access to all the raw data drf.com slash sports, that's where you'll get the usual previews. Plus we go into the games in depth on this podcast. However you want the betting information we've got you covered. And on today's pod. We'll recap the football weekend in both the NFL and NCAA plus hits you with some picks for the midweek football action. So I put in another call to my guy, Matt Russell. And luckily for us, he joins me right now.
Matt:The man the myth, the legend, Mr. Matt Russell is back on the DRF sports podcast. Mr. Russell, how you doing on this wonderful Tuesday morning? Yeah, I'm exhausted again. You know, and it's not because the Monday night er was a wild affair, though it was pretty intense. For those betting on the point spread. I'm still I'm still wiped out from Sunday, man. Like what a grind. That was at least for us. Now. Maybe it was because week one, it was just full of adrenaline because we basically won everything. this past Sunday was a little bit more how it kind of normally is right? Where you just grinding out the best you can do. And I'm sitting there and listen, those one o'clock games weren't the most thrilling things ever. But, you know, I'm sitting there and I had four quarterbacks go out, you know, all teams that I had bet on to, you know, one degree or another, nothing huge, necessarily. But it's like, you know, I grabbed a unit on Houston plus 14, and I had the Colts plus three and a half, which we talked about last week. And you know, if you throw in Miami and Chicago, and like we actually did, okay, three of those four teams actually covered despite having to go to their backup quarterback. But when you see the backup quarterback Come on, when you see TJ watt go down, that was a loser, unfortunately. And you're sitting there going like, kind of the most important players on these teams like I'm going to need these guys. When I made these beds, I assume 60 minutes of health from these guys, which of course you can never necessarily do in the NFL, but it would be nice to see one of my opponents right, one of the big teams I bet against lose a quarterback. So when you're getting into that circumstance, you're just trying to grab whatever you can get. And so yeah, I was wiped out by the time Sunday night rolled around. You know, I'm getting too old for this stuff. I'm certainly still wiped out here we are as as we chat here on Tuesday morning. You're right about grinding it out on Sunday. Like I thought I was having like a pretty good week. And as always, that is thanks to you and the help that you provide us on the Friday pod each and every week. A great Sunday, and then the Sunday nighter and Monday night or happened and I ended up finishing 10 and six on the week. And I mean, I'll take that, you know, I'll take it there are some crazy wild finishes, you know, OT games kickers being involved in the mix. And anytime that's happening with the game on the line? No, you know where that can go. Right. But the wild results you mess it you mentioned the cubies going down. But what about how are you adjusting your ratings with some of these cubies going down? Because as you mentioned, yeah, for teams dealing with the now and I think we've heard so far that we're not really sure about Andy Dalton status. We know that tyrod Taylor is out for Houston and they play out Thursday, which we'll get to later on. But overall, how is this affecting your ratings? Yeah, I mean, it's case by case like anything else, right. You
Sheldon:You have to kind of go through it and go okay like what do I know about the guy who's going to replace said quarterback right? And also, you know, you had Carson Wentz go out, but that was at the end of the game, Jacob Easton comes in and he's got to make a bunch of throws kind of coming in cold with a couple minutes left to go like he's, he's now tasked to win the game for the course. Right? Not really a fair position. At the same token, like didn't look all that great, right? And so, you know, I don't think we know what to make of Jacobsen, necessarily with a full week of practice. You know, you look at Miami, right with Jacoby percent, and they get shut out by buffalo. But Jacoby brissette has been in this position before, right, like he has played extensively in the NFL. And so I don't know that I'm looking to drop Miami, for example, all that much in my ratings, because, you know, again, it was ugly, and there might be some value created by this right. So it's ugly. For Miami, they don't score any points and so you okay with like their toes, but like, if he gets a full week of first team reps, because two definitely can't go, then I'll be more apt to maybe back Miami thinking, you know that most people are going to think that this is going to be a horror show against Las Vegas, where it's like Jacoby percent is a capable backup, right? And so, you know, whereas you've got Andy Dalton going down and like, what if Justin fields comes in now he played a fair amount in that game, and like, the best thing that he did was recover his own fumbles. At one point was one of the great, you know, self, you know, fumble recoveries of all time. But like everything else, maybe got a couple of first downs with his legs, certainly at the end there. But like, it didn't look so good, right. And he's their future, and I understand why people want him to play. But there's also just a real possibility as much as we don't really, you know, love Matt naggy as a coach. possibility, he's aware that Justin fields just isn't ready yet, right. And so I'm going to downgrade the bears a lot in that situation, whereas I might not downgrade Miami that much. Because they're replacing a still relatively green to a ton of Iowa, with Jacoby brissette, who has been around the block and for one game or two games can get it done in the NFL. Yeah, and another key part of all this, of course, as we discuss a bunch of the injuries, remember that stay locked to DRF comm slash sports because they have all of the key injuries, and all the latest updates and information that you'll need. Because obviously, these injuries will affect the betting angles. So you want to keep up with everything that's going on there. Remember DRF comm slash sports has you covered. And, you know, I look back and I think about what happened on Sunday. And as you mentioned, the cubies played such a huge role in things. But on the flip side, cubies that didn't get hurt and kind of put on a show on Sunday night. As I look towards Lamar Jackson, and Patrick mahomes. You tried to warn me and the world on our Friday pot about jumping on the Chiefs bandwagon on Friday. And I told you that I knew I wasn't gonna listen.
Matt:probably right. But I could see myself just jumping on the wave on Sunday night. And yeah, it kind of played out how you predicted no? Well, it's funny because you mentioned your tenant six record, right. And so I was thinking to myself, is that tenant six? Because he changed his pitch over to the Baltimore Ravens or because he didn't and it sounds like he didn't. But listen, you were 11 and five last week, right? And that's and we talked about, like the thin line, like a couple of changes here and there. And that's how you go from eight and eight to 10 and six or or to 11 and five, right? And so how did it play out? You know, exactly as I thought, yes and no, right? Like, no, you know, they throw the Lamar throws the pick six, like right off the bat, and you're going like, it's funny, I had this weird sensation, I was like, Well, people are going to be really surprised when Baltimore covers this game based on the fact of how this game started. But because I knew that Baltimore was going to be able to run the football against Kansas City. Now this is the NFL in 2021. And a lot of cases, you can run the football against a team. And it's like, they're kind of okay with it, right? They're like, Yeah, go for your little four or five yards of carry here. Somebody is going to come in to hold at some point, it's going to be second and 20 or second and 15. And then what are you going to do? Right? Yeah, but like Baltimore is different, right? Like Baltimore has, like they have the good plays, right? Everybody says that, you know, why don't you just run the good place. They kind of didn't run the good plays against Vegas. And again, I love this that matchup, because again, you know, we talked about this last week. But it reminds me of you when you and I talked about that game last year when Kansas City didn't look very good against the chargers. And then they came in and they smoked Baltimore, in Baltimore. And we were like, they didn't run any of these like trick funky plays against the Chargers, right. They had been saving them for Baltimore. So I think Baltimore got burned a little bit against Las Vegas because they didn't run the same running plays that they did against Kansas City, right? Like these trap plays that have Lamar in the middle, right like they played it Very Vanilla against Vegas, and it cost them they ended up losing that game. And so you
Sheldon:No, they were able to, they busted out the good plays right the back end of the playbook, like the quality run plays, and they gashed Kansas City. Now, can you ever predict like 250 some odd rushing yards? No, not necessarily. But like what was working was working right. And defensively, they were patient, they didn't send the Blitz all the time against Patrick mahomes. And just have him burn them. He still managed to burn them deep a couple of times. But you know, what they locked down tyreke Hill, right, which is defensive, gameplan, right, can see obviously wants to get the ball to tyreke Hill, but he had what like three targets the entire game, and so they locked down him, they forced somebody else to beat them, it looked like somebody else was going to beat them as mahomes threw it to like nine different guys. But if it you know, fundamentally there, it's just a market thing, right? We're talking plus three and a half in a game that you know, my numbers made Kansas City a half point favorite. We saw the same matchup last year as Baltimore, a three to three and a half point favorite. So that massive swing, it just leaves as we talked about all the time, it just leaves, you know, this sort of like wind probability section, right? Where it's like Kansas City could win this game by one, two or three points, and you still end up a winner with Baltimore. But no, everybody just piles in on Kansas City. And they've now covered what two of their last 14 games against the spread. Like you could say that about, like the Jags or something like that. And we'd be like, this is the worst team we've ever seen. Like, how could you ever bet on the Jags? We do that like we might be headed there already? Because they go and can't even cover an outrageous number against Denver? And it's like, we look at those teams and are like, they're terrible. Because obviously the point spread is, could you please just cover 10? You know, getting 10 points. In this case, Kansas City is costing you just as much money out there. Right? They are costing you more money. And we're fine with it, because they end up most of the time pulling off of Victor right. And you and I always talk about, like, the point spread in the money line. And like, it's all a reflection of how likely you know Kansas City, Tampa Bay, whomever is to win the game. But when you talk about the point spread, you know, like it has to be off of that money line, right? It has to, you know, work in correlation of that money line. But these teams don't necessarily care, the winning by eight points, but winning by 10 points, or winning by four points, right? They just want to win the game. And Andy Reid and Kansas City have been winning three point games here for a really long time. And nobody seems to notice that they just never cover because people are already looking to back Kansas City this week against the chargers. And you just have to sit and say to people like maybe they cover but they've lost you so much money that it's kind of not going to matter, right? Like the money's already gone. And you're gonna have to do something pretty crazy here to work your way back if you've just been backing the Chiefs blindly for you know what the last 14 games as I'm reading this tweet here from em Russ authentic, it says, shorts book always win. The Kansas City Chiefs fall the 211 and one against the spread in their last 14. And Ben says yet, you're already dying to vet them next week, the Chiefs tax is real. That was the information given out here on the pod. And it's it's, it's super real, you mentioned something about not caring about what the point spread is. And this is something we've talked about in terms of You see, the Chiefs get up by a certain number. And I'm not saying they take their foot off the gas. But as you mentioned, they're not bringing out they're like a plus plus plays at a certain point of the game when they're up. And they're cruising at a certain point in that game, right? And they kind of, you know, shift down shift gears a little, and then a little more train starts rolling, the momentum starts to build building back up. And then what do you know, now you're trying to cover three and a half points. And they were still in a position to win the game, if not for the fumble. But as you said, that's still not covering three and a half points, right. And the thing is, like they have a fundamental flaw, right, like we saw it in their run game. Now listen, not every team can just show up and have the same effect that the Ravens do right, with the Ravens are built in a lot of ways to do that against Kansas City. If the Chargers for instance this week, right? Like if they all of a sudden ran for 250 yards on can see, we'd be like, what, like, I can't even necessarily picture that right, because they mean Justin Herbert can run a little bit, but like, obviously, they don't have the same. They don't have the same playbook. Right? They don't have the same skill on though in those positions now. Yeah, exactly. And so there's a fundamental flaw there, where if you can do one thing against a team, you can do that thing over and over and over again and hang in a game where if you look at a team like Tampa Bay, and it's like, what's their fundamental flaw? Well, like maybe it's their offensive, you know, run game. Well, guess what? In 2021 that doesn't really matter, especially when you have Tom Brady, right? So it's like it's not their defense, right? Because you can't run on Tampa Bay. Right? The best you can do is try to play like a throw it you know, all over the field type of shootout with Tampa Bay and just kind of hope that the ball bounces your way. Maybe you get some turnovers. Maybe they don't turn you over, right. We saw
Matt:In the first game against Dallas, Dallas had all the turnovers. Right and they hang in with Tampa Bay, we see him against Atlanta right Atlanta is hanging in there. It's a three point game, right? much to our chagrin, that you know, as, as backers of the Falcons, they go and just start throwing the ball around and balls get tipped, and like the ball doesn't bounce their way in the fourth quarter. And two of those get returned for a touchdown. But the point is, is like, if we're looking at those two teams, sort of the quote unquote best teams of their conference, one team you can rely on to get a stop late in a game. And Kansas City, you can't so you know, whether it's like foot off the gas or you know, whatever sort of cliche, if you will. Like it's true offensively because they will with five minutes to go, you know, hand the ball off right to Clyde Edwards a layer and yes, he fumbles. Right. Otherwise, Kansas City probably wins that game right there.
Sheldon:Pretty high probability anyway. And so like Tampa Bay will shut you down, whereas Kansas City was going to always kind of give up the last score. If there was time on the clock for Baltimore, right? And the same way that paultons reason why Baltimore went for it, right? Because they're like, Why don't want to give the ball to Patrick mahomes. And it's like, that's not even like a controversial decision, right? It's only the people who like me, you're like, miss the days of like, the 90s 90s, NFL football, where it's like, oh, my God, you would never go for it on fourth down. It's like, Well, welcome to 2021 here, right? Yeah. And so like, yeah, Baltimore can have the confidence to do that, because they're not afraid of getting stopped. Whereas against a team like Tampa Bay, how many times do fourth down? Did Matt Ryan try to go for it? Like they're trying sneaks? Like they can't even pull off a quarterback sneak against them. Right? So you know, there's a difference there, right? And there's one team can hold. That's what you need. When you're when you're laying a big number or you know, something over a touchdown. You need a team that defensively can stop the other team, right? They'll put up their points, but defensively at the end, do they have the will and a ability to stop that team whereas Kansas City like they might have the will but they just don't really have the ability so you're always going to be in that backdoor range in this case it was backdoor and then lose the game doesn't necessarily happen that often the Kansas City but it's something you gotta keep. Keep in mind. Yeah, you're totally right about that. It was weird to see them lose a game down the stretch and not cover obviously. Right? It's kind of weird, but still one of many crazy finishes on Sunday. Great finishes right down to the wire. I mean, I was able to hit on the cowboys and the Titans. I know you are big on the Titans as well. That was one of the great pics you handed out on Friday. But I got to bring up the Vikings.
Matt:That missed field goal stung for a lot of reasons. And it's just like, you know, the spread. Cool. We're there. We're in the mix. Everything's cool. All right. But we had a little bit more running riding on that. No. Oh, yeah. You know, I'll be less listen. Last week we talked about the money line parlay, right. The round robin hit all five legs. We were Scrooge McDuck going into the end of the Golden Jubilee silos but time of our lives, right? Yeah. And we take out our towel we you know, we dry ourselves off. I don't know why the doubloons are wet, whatever. Um, and we and we get back to it right and we're like, okay, there's gonna be you know, five games here. How do we find five underdogs you know in a week that you know might not have it right there's no guarantee there's even gonna be 500 dogs that win outright each week right? So you know we go and we find Carolina that was a super easy one. Unfortunately massive Swing and a miss in part because of the two injury in Miami. But yeah, we got the Colts as well and then that one was really close but it doesn't work out and so we're just then hoping to try to get our three out of our five right to salvage Oh, hold on. Can I stop you there for a second your Colts didn't work out. But like Carson Wentz was doing his best. Carson Wentz pray Yeah, to make sure that didn't happen, right.
Sheldon:Anytime you can get inside the five yard line twice in the first half, and come away with zero points, because you get intercepted on a shovel pass, which like, nobody gets that nobody gets intercepted on a two yard pass. Like what like the point of the shovel pass is like it's impossible to get intercepted on. And like he was somehow inaccurate from two yards away. And so then he gets, you know, they still take the lead right later on in the game. And like then, of course, Carson Wentz gets injured because it's a Sunday. And that's the kind of just thing that's going to happen. And yeah, like so yes, you're right. Like they saw
Matt:my bad because like, you know, we go it's funny because we use this sort of binary right like one zero, like you either win, or you lose and you know, there's a bunch of bats like I would use Atlanta as one of those examples where you know, from a metric standpoint, from a yardage standpoint that should have been a five point Tampa victory, right based on yardage you know, yards to play all of that sort of thing, right? So, you know, why wasn't it well because you know, two balls in Tampa Bay Buccaneers hand
Sheldon:Late and they were celebrating in the end zone before seconds later right and that's how that game ends up being a three touchdown game instead of a five point game or even a 12 point game both of which would have been helpful to us right so you know whether it's the Colts and that whole situation there with it you know to being inside the five first and goal and not being able to get it done or the Falcons right you have these bets where you go you know what really good bet man you know like just lost you know so obviously Colts we want from the point spread standpoint but money line didn't work out so the point is we've got one leg out of the five we still have two games left to go for the afternoon slate and of course Tennessee goes down a little bit but we knew right like that was gonna be last team to have the ball wins. Sure enough, that's exactly how it worked out. And Tennessee ends up getting the win but we didn't know that at the time of humans Greg Joseph just line and stuff up there for the Vikings and he's striping kicks against the Bengals 50 plus yarders and like Vikings fans that I know are like we've got a kicker like the ghost of Blair Walsh is dead like no work. This is we're all set. Like even though they lost right because they kind of got jammed up on that dalvin cook fumble that wasn't really a fumble. And so you know, then you know the game against Arizona rolls around and they're in control you can ever say they're in control because both teams full on track meet situation. But listen, that's a chip shot man like 37 yards, like the announcer hopefully, you know everybody out there heard the clip but the announcers like it's good. No. Like and like I you know, even though you get used to it with just, you know, college or college kickers on Saturday, and then kickers you know, even in the NFL on Sunday, like it's still just cuts to the core of you. Right when a kicker just a chip shot to and then you go and you flip over and like Dallas is he's making 50 yarders and it's like there's no rhyme or reason I've you know, we're watching guys miss or you know, short kicks early and hit long kicks later on and you're just like, I don't understand, right? It's just all psychology right? It's all mental but you're just like this guy isn't damaged yet. He doesn't have all of that you know, weight on his shoulders. It's just like, just make the 37 yarder and so turns out right Vikings if that had gotten there would have connected the Carolina leg and the Titans leg which is up over plus 200 so we would have had back to back weeks where at least the round robin moneyline parlay is profitable so all the round robin money line parlay people out there are just you know up in arms if we were all maniacs we'd be invoicing Greg Joseph right now Oh, we're not and you know, we're still playing with more than enough house money on the on the general process of the round robin moneyline parlay, but like make a kick man make a game that was I mean, it was a fantastic and wild game on you know, that's gonna be every Cardinals game. I'm pretty sure this year. In the wise words of Bill Belichick do your job.
Matt:You have one job, do just one, just one make a cake, bro. But if we if we continue the theme of just talking about betting and handicapping thoughts and you know, we talked a lot about the overreaction last week, right, of how some of these lines swung all the way to being over three and a half points, which wasn't the case the week prior. So heading into week three? What's kind of the thing that we're looking at here, especially in regards to the own two teams? Yeah, and that's it, right? It's it's just it's betting on the uncomfortable, right? And it's betting against the chiefs. I don't mean that necessarily, specifically this week, but listen, you know, recent history would suggest that's probably a decent idea. But you know, it's it's taught, you know, going talk about, you know, we've to like look at all those games, right? All of those games that were plus three and a half's that probably should have been under a touchdown Carolina gets there, Indy gets there, Minnesota gets there, Baltimore gets there, right. They're all the same type of a game where it's just the team that you don't want anything to do with. And that's why the market pushes it up over three now week three, right? Like, if Listen, if we had a gold doubloon you know, for every time we say the words, hey, let's remember this for next year. Right? So like, that's our Hey, let's remember this for next year. for week two, for week three. What do we remember from last year? What do we remember from a trend standpoint? I'm not a huge trends guy necessarily. But like if it has reason to it, I'm all for it. Oh, and two teams are like over 60% against the spread. Right and it's for obvious reasons, you know, throw all the narrative in there right like the desperation like oh blah blah. You know, think about how hard all these guys were Can you can talk about it for week two or week three, but like how hard they work all year round, right? Just to make an NFL football team then to be ready for the start of the season and then you lose in that first game and then you lose in that second game. And maybe it's because the kicker right he goes and he misses 37 yarder and you're sitting there going like we did everything we could to win especially if you're for the Vikings like let's just use them as an example. Yeah, they're all in to their own too because the referees made a bad call on a fumble with for dalvin cook in overtime. Now listen, they shouldn't have been in over
Sheldon:In the first place, you can make the case I completely understand all that. And then there, you know, kicker misses a 37 yarder. So if you're dalvin, cook or offensive lineman, ex or defensive back, why you're sitting there going like, we're way better than this and the seasons not over. But of course, they're you know, the week goes along, and you'll hear people talk about, well, you know, if you start out with three, there's like a 92% chance you're going to miss the playoffs. So like, you better not start Oh, and three. And so, you know, I look and I go, okay, we know what the Vikings also haven't been at home yet. Right? You're getting that extra bounce. And so like, the quote unquote, desperation element of being down owed to coming home, like, all of that stuff lends itself to being underrated, undervalued in the marketplace, but also that there's going to be sort of an undefinable and sort of mathematically quantifiable element to rating that team for this week, right, like, so I would expect the Vikings to perform at a really, really high rate relative to what they're capable of right now. They're not gonna be perfect, cuz they're not capable of being perfect, but they're capable of playing really good football, so I would expect that from them. And so whether it's that situation, or a situation of you know, like the Jacksonville Jaguars or some other, you know, really bad team we know are bad. And they're all into, and it's like, okay, they're still probably going to go in three, but the market is going to treat them like hot garbage, right? Like they're bump that number up, like we see Detroit loses last night. So now they're open to and the last we see of Jared Goff is he's fumbling snaps and he's throwing interception. The guy just melts in any kind of weather. And so that all happens. But like they were still up at halftime, right? They were still leading that game at halftime. And so what happens is, the Ravens go from like seven point favorites. And now they reopen it nine and a half point favorites. And I imagine people are still gonna come in on Baltimore. And so that number probably ends up going to 10. And then you just sit you go, okay, like we're not talking about wins and losses here like we are with the Vikings. We're just talking about an over or undervaluation depending on you know, who we're talking about, specifically. But when it comes to Detroit, for example, there's going to be an undervaluation there, and like they, you know, they're gonna be facing a different team than Green Bay, right, like Lamar Jackson's not gonna be dropping dimes, like Aaron Rodgers was zipping by linebackers, earholes and finding davante Adams deep. Like, that's not what Lamar Jackson does. Now, is Detroit capable of stopping the run?
Matt:Maybe Maybe not here, right. But we're talking about like a different bar here. So if this thing gets to 10, which I think it might I think that's where value starts to creep in on grabbing an O into team, so you have to be a little bit discernible, because it's not 100%, like you said, it's 62% I believe it is for Oh, and two teams. And so, you know, it's just it's situational dependent, but you have to be open to the idea that just because a team lost in their first two games, and maybe they didn't cover in those first two games, it's far too early in the season to just throw a team on the like, do not bet list and sort of just walk away, unless we're talking about the Jets. But
Sheldon:But you're talking about, you know, looking for value seeking certain prices, and I think that kind of fits into, you know, a bit of a bad beat, let's say, because the Bengals and bears game, right, that game ends up landing on three. But you, I want to ask you about the importance of price, because we talked about it a little bit on the Friday pod for people might not understand how is that game a really good example of the importance of price. What's funny, right? Because these lines get, you know, they get put up on Sunday night, right? Or Monday, depending on sort of when you know, if you've played on Monday night, or whatever. And this one was interesting to me, because Chicago is three point, you know, openness, three point favorites, right? And everybody shouldn't say everybody, right, but the money comes in on Cincinnati at plus three. And so if you're somebody who's just, you know, sort of tailing a market, right, and what that means is, you know, you're watching a line move, and you're going, you know, listen, sharp money, by and large is going to move a line. Now, you don't have to just follow that blindly for two reasons. One, the quote unquote, sharp money is going to win 58% of the time, like a really good season. So there's 42 out of 100 games, where that line move, it's just gonna be flat out wrong, and you're gonna find some value going the other way. But what's the differences between that sharp money in between Joe Blow if Joe Blow who's even like relatively sharp when it comes to market chasing and like watching the market moves? And they know right, and they're watching lines on Sunday or Monday morning, and they see three, and they don't necessarily do anything about it, because they don't have a big take on Chicago. Cincinnati, right. Yeah. And then they see that number come off of three and you immediately should think rightfully, oh, sharp money's on Cincinnati plus three, they grab that plus three, they thought that to be valuable, but what the important thing here is
Matt:is don't just grab plus two and a half because the quote unquote sharp money knows something right? Yeah, that Oh, like now Cincinnati is going to win this game as the underdog because they became a very public underdog play because people are like, oh bear stink, like think about it right bears lose Bengals win in week one. So now people believe that the Bengals are going to beat the parents. And so the bad beat element of all of this comes in where like the bears are, you know, that game stretched out, they're up 17 points in the fourth quarter. So even if you got a bad number on the bears, like you're still feeling pretty good. But all of that sharp money got bailed out with the way that game ended, where it lands on three, right, the two touchdowns late for Cincinnati. And so those guys, the pros, if you will, are sitting there going like no harm, no foul, got the best price. But if you were chasing at plus two and a half, or you were using the information that you know, people like the bangles, who have influence, and you took the money line, for example, right, because you thought they were onto something and thus you were going to be on to something as well, your ledger is that, you know, there's a loss on your ledger, right, your record goes from 10, and six, if you will, to nine and seven, whereas there's just goes from 10 and six, you know, 296, and one, they don't lose any money on it, right. And so I'm all for and do a ton of the sort of like market,
Sheldon:you know, following or, or whatever, right to sort of understand where the money is going. But if you don't capture that key number of three, you can get yourself in trouble, right at the end of the year, you can be like I did everything that they did. And it's like, well, you have five more losses than they do, quote unquote, right. And it's because you got in late, because that's just how this game works. Totally. And that's why we try to give you more information on a week to week basis here just to inform you as a betting public to try to give you a bit of an edge. But of course, that's just part of what we do here on the podcast. And if you want more of that information, so you can get more insight on the lines head to DRF comm slash sports for all the details and insights. And because the site has all the data on every single game, including offensive and defensive stats, betting angles, line movements, key injuries, head to head records and team stats, the DRF data is what powers our power trends. So if you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter, if you want access to all the raw data, again DRF comm slash sports where there's the usual previews plus we go into the games in depth on this podcast, basically, however you want your betting information, we've got you covered. And the thing is we got you covered on the NFL, and we're gonna switch gears a little here and go to college football, which was also a very big weekend and we'll start with the big boys of Alabama. They got a bit of a test. But I have a question here. What's up your boy Dan Mullen has been the top of the discussion on this pod for a while. But what happened there this weekend? Yeah, he got us. He got us, right. Like we were all excited. We're like ar 15 ar 15 is coming in. Right. Anthony Richardson. We were a little worried about the hamstring. And then all week, right, Dan Mullins like? Yeah, no, he's practicing. Like, looks okay. And like, I think there was a second MRI in the mix there somewhere. You never want the second MRI. Like, that's never a good thing. So again, write that down for next time. So you know, we're like, okay, you know, let's grab some highest men, Anthony Richardson, you could see,
Matt:you know, it was funny because Florida is hanging around, right. And they're just hanging there hanging around just enough to not, you know, not to have to break glass in case of emergency and grab Richardson, you know, to tear the headset off of them and throw him in there. Because they're hanging in there. And they're hanging there. And they end up covering them doing so relatively comfortably. And we're two point conversion away from having a game type. Now, you and I both know Alabama's probably going down and scoring to win that game after that two point conversion if they needed to. Right. But of course they didn't. All he needed was a first down. So, you know, a little bit bummed out that we didn't get to see our guy, Anthony Richardson. So he still sits at 100 to one. And you know, the more time goes by right, the less chance there is for him to come in and show out and listen, it's 100 to one bet. So it's not like you know, we had massive investments in it. It was the thing that we were just hoping to see, right? I want to see that guy against Alabama. And now the problem is now normally I would say to you like good news is we're gonna be able to bet him next year for the Heisman Trophy. But the problem is, we're probably gonna see just enough of him this season, especially potentially in a bowl game that like people are gonna catch on and once the market reopens for the 2022 season, he's probably going to be down to like five to one right. And so we didn't we kind of, you know, we didn't miss out necessarily, but like Dan Mullen sort of tricked us into thinking that we might get to see ar 15 on Saturday, and we just didn't but it worked out for Florida and certainly for the covers.
Sheldon:You know, there's only so mad we could be necessarily but it's just kind of disappointing given how excited we were last week to see Richardson sticking with this college football theme and what happened this weekend? What happened in the PAC 12? Because, yeah, go for the undefeated. What went wrong there? Yeah, right. We're like, okay, Ohio State loses Oregon beats them, like, look out Pac 12. Like we've been talking a lot of bleep about them. And now they're like, ready to party. And we've like circle circle the calendar, like October 2, Arizona State and UCLA, like that's coming right around the corner. That's going to be a battle of undefeated here potentially. Now, we did mention both those teams had tricky games. We talked about the BYU game and listen in box score. You look at that box score, and you go, how did Arizona State not win this game? Right? Like, I don't know if they would have covered necessarily or whatever. But like, they got absolutely no bounces, they took way too many penalties. They basically Los Angeles chargers their way into a loss right against BYU college version, right? Not that far away from San Diego is Tempe Arizona. So
Matt:they both lose, right? Fresno comes out and bites UCLA, and I kind of you know, once they had a feeling or whatever, but I was sort of fighting that urge to grab the money line. But the point is, is like that's why we said let's take a wait and see approach right, let's wait for that game on October 2, to first of all, make sure both teams are undefeated, and then sort of pick our side either before or after that game, because you have to allow for teams, especially in college football, to screw it up. And that's what both of them did. Right. And so now you're sitting there at the end of September, and everybody but Oregon is out of the mix when it comes to the PAC 12. And I'm here to tell you, Oregon's probably going to lose a game or to get you know, in that Pac 12 schedule, because as much as Utah looks not very good or not certainly not as good as we thought. And Arizona State UCLA los both those teams are capable of beating Oregon at some point. And so this might just be the case of same old Pac 12 which sucks to say especially after last week, we were like it's not the same old Pac 12. But it literally took them like what two days for them to basically you know, revert back to where they were. So kind of a bummer there. But it opens things up even further. Now. Maybe it ends up opening things up for Clemson to get back in the mix or Ohio State to get back in the mix. But what is it open for we talked about Cincinnati getting that win against Indiana and listen, it looked dicey for a very long time, but they got it done. And so next up is Notre Dame in a couple of weeks. And you know, that's the game to circle for Cincinnati's hopes, to least get into that top four from a you know, ranking standpoint, once you're in that top four, right, you got to drag them out of there one way or another. So that's the team that's left sort of sitting there while the PAC 12 melts away. And the ACC appears to be melting away here because Clemson just barely got by Georgia Tech this weekend. We'll talk about that a little bit more here in a second. So Cincinnati, right like we're sitting there since Anderson Desmond returned and look all that great. But again, if he gets to the end here, 12 and oh, and he puts up the numbers that he's going to put up once we get to conference play. We're looking at and I was 66 to one then it was 28 to one and we were still like pretty sure what I would make that bet still and now he's sitting at like 12 to one even lower than that in some places. Right so we're seeing him move along here. So Notre Dame for him on deck here and you know, that's going to be circled calendar. We'll be talking about that one next week. The Heisman watch right, the Heisman watch where you enjoy a lot. What about Bryce young? Is he still the favorite? Yeah, I mean, he and Matt corral now right are sort of jostling for the favorite and it's funny because like mackerel hasn't played anybody from a defensive standpoint. And listen, he might put up a ton of points they actually meet up in I think, I believe two weeks right essentially. And so you know, is Alabama gonna shut down Matt corral, but like more importantly for Bryce young? You know, I'll ask you like, against a Florida team, like, yeah, they put up points, but it's a lot of just throw it to a teammate, and have that guy just making moves. And in the first half of that game, when Alabama built that lead, there was a lot of you know, even the announcers mentioned that they're like, and this is for total Florida here. It's like Florida's athletes just can't find the angle on Alabama's athletes and we're talking about gators, right like the Gators not having good enough athletes to make tackles in the open field. And so it's like yeah, like so Bryce young all he's going to do is just throw 10 yard passes to the fleet of dudes that he's got on that team and they're just going to out angle everybody because they're that much better than them. I just don't see how voters at the end of the day are going to be like Yep, you know, he led the way especially if there are other stories and other explosive players and corral is certainly one of those but we'll see if Alabama wait for it can corral corral in a couple of weeks and then that then opens up the door for a couple other guys like our guy Desmond Ridder or even maybe Sam Howell who had like a roughly a billion touchdowns this past weekend, even after looking pretty bad.
Sheldon:Against Virginia Tech a few weeks ago, so lots still going on in the Heisman race here. And the favourites, still very vulnerable. So it's an interesting market to maybe get get some down on here. You mentioned the favorites. But what about some other futures? As you look, especially towards the ACC, and Clemson, you mentioned they struggled. But is there an opportunity here, when you look at the features of the ACC, in particular? Yeah, I think there's a couple of different ways here and I and we'll talk about the big 10 as well. So remind me to do that. But, you know, whether it's Ohio State sort of struggling against Tulsa, or Clemson, struggling, you know, they've got, you know, two wins, right, a barely win against Georgia Tech. And then what South Carolina State the week before. And so to me, I just watched this team, and I go, like, this isn't the Clemson team that we've had over the last five seasons, and it's not just DJ, we're not gonna beat him up here. Because like, I know, he's not as good as Trevor Lawrence. Like, yeah, okay. Like, that's not the worst thing to say about human being like, I guess who else isn't as good as Trevor Lawrence? Me? Yeah. And I don't take that personally. And he's not as good as Sean Watson. Right. It's like if you've lived the deshaun Watson, Trevor Lawrence life, for basically what five out of the last six years, right. There's some Kelly Bryant in there. But we saw it like maybe DJ just happens to be more Kelly Bryant than he is Trevor Lawrence, at which point Clemson becomes a lot more vulnerable. But if Clemson is going to be priced like Clemson in the ACC, then there's a chance one of two things happens there's a chance somebody knocks them off on the way to the acc championship, which then means that somebody in the other division becomes really valuable. Because right now we're just assuming, okay, whoever plays Clemson in the championship game is going to be three touchdown underdogs. And so it's hard to recommend a bet on any team in the other division, right? Because you're like, well, we're just gonna get there and lose to Clemson. So what's going on over in the other division is Virginia Tech. And now we were all in West Virginia this week, that got a little bit dicey. At the end, I was wasn't paying attention as as Virginia Tech pulls off a crazy comeback or almost pulls off, I should say, a crazy comeback. But this is a team that already has a win under their belt against North Carolina, right. So for them to not make the the ACC title game, they're going to have to lose two games, right? Because North Carolina is going to have the tiebreaker against North Carolina, so North Carolina would have to flat out beat them. And right now they're like plus 300 to win the division in the ACC. And so I really like that bet as a concept over in the in the clip in Clemson's division like they play NC State this week at NC State. I like NC State. And I'm going to be on the money line there. And we'll talk about that more on Friday, but like their 10 point underdogs, and I don't know necessarily that I'm you know, even comfortable at all, thinking that Clemson is definitively going to win by double digits against a functional team in the ACC. So that early game with Virginia Tech beating North Carolina really jams up North Carolina, because they would have a really good chance to beat Clemson, even if it got to that point. And of course, we're thinking that maybe it might not even get to that point. But the problem is they're behind Virginia Tech in this way. And Virginia Tech schedule is a little bit softer. And like people might be off of Virginia Tech because of the losses here. But like those were not, you know, conference losses, those don't count on the standings, right? They just sort of count to public perception. And so I will be I'm fine with backing Virginia Tech in the long term here in the ACC, because they have this head start that people aren't necessarily giving enough credit to. Now I want to talk about the big 10 I reminded myself pretty sharp. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. So same sort of deal. Right. Ohio State, like we all just assume Ohio State, they're gonna be three touchdown favorites in the conference championship game. And we watch them play and they're getting gashed by Oregon, and they're getting gash by Tulsa. Right. And I'm like, okay, but there's a possibility. Ohio State, isn't that good. And they're sitting there. They've got Penn State in their division and like, yes, like, Penn State has to come to them. But going to the big or excuse, I was gonna call it the big house. Oh, my God, that people would be just up in the horseshoe. Um, you know, again, Ohio State has to play Michigan also, later on, I don't know that that's necessarily going to be a game because it never is. But the point is, is like going to the horseshoe isn't all that scary. Because Listen, Oregon just did it. And Tulsa did it. And like they managed to survive. No, tell us the loss. But like, they certainly covered that game really, really easily. So like Penn State could win that game. And so what I'm looking to do is I'm looking to look at the big 10 West, and Wisconsin already has a conference loss to Penn State. But that's a different division. So they don't have to do the same thing that Virginia Tech has, or that North Carolina would have to do on Virginia Tech. They don't have to jump Penn State because they're in the other division. They just have to basically win the rest of their own division games. And the only team that's any good in that division is Iowa and Iowa comes to Madison later on in the season.
Matt:And you know, so Wisconsin is going to be favored in that game. And listen, Wisconsin was the better team, by and large against Penn State, but the quarterback was terrible. And maybe he's terrible in every game going forward here, we're going to get a good look at them against Notre Dame this weekend. And so maybe you wait on this because again, whatever happens against Notre Dame doesn't have any bearing on what happens in the big 10. It's really just more like a scouting. It's like scouting trip for us, but Wisconsin's 12 to one to win the big 10. And so whether or not that's a sort of maybe not that great, as great as they always are Ohio State team, or maybe that's against Penn State, who they again, just played to, you know, it was basically a tie game for much of that game like that can could have gone either way. In either case, all you really need out of Wisconsin is a home win against Iowa to have a 12 to one ticket for the big 10 championship. They're not going to be 12 to one against either of those teams. So you're going to have value. And if you get a little bit lucky here, maybe Wisconsin ends up as the favorite or it's a three point you know, pick any type of a game. And you're sitting there with 12 to one. So I think there's a ton of value right now in betting Wisconsin to win the big 10. Because, again, people are off the scent a little bit because of how well Iowa has started the season. And because of the loss that Wisconsin already has, but it's not that detrimental to their success. Okay, let's try to keep some success going in terms of pick wise because we're going to look ahead to some midweek football action and we'll stick with the NCAA as we have Marshall at Appalachian State who are seven point home favorites. Yeah, Which side are you on here? Because it's an interesting team this season Appalachian State. Yeah, I mean, they've been really interesting to me because I've been trying to fade them and that hasn't necessarily worked out.
Sheldon:Because like I look at it and listen, like I'm still not sold on chase Bryce there. I said it right. Like I'm not I'm like I don't I can't do it. You cannot talk me into chase Bryce. So here's the situation here. This is actually a really good game. Like, unlike last week's game that was just dreadful in about five different ways. Marshall AP state here like Marshall lost to ECU last week, they took a really big early lead to touchdowns or so. And then they just, you know, our guy Holt nailers, like, just got it done, right just pulls it off, total shootout type of a game. And so you know, you look at that result. And now they have to go to App state. And again, people think app states really good. And again, I might be the last person out there, right? I might just be in the desert, just no money left. And just going like AB state and chase. Bryce isn't very good. And like, I just might be that dude. And like, that's fine. But that last ECU last week, I think, has created some value, where now you're getting a full seven points on a Marshall team, who frankly has a better quarterback than appstate does. And like, I like that, right? And I'm like, I don't think that it's like, oh, you're going into the dungeon that is like, you know, Appalachian State, you know, Stadium, I don't even really know what it's called.
Matt:You know, don't Don't beat me up about that. But like, you know, you're getting full seven points on a team that like Marshall, I think might be better than AP state. And like just because AP state hung in right, the last we saw of AP stick they hung around with Miami.
Sheldon:And we talked about this last week. And speaking of winners, we'll type ourselves up here a little bit here, right? Like Michigan State against Miami. Last week, we were on that we were like what do you love Miami team? Right? Like why Why? Why are we obsessed with this Miami team? To the degree that they're six, six and a half point favorites against Michigan State like they are just not that good. Like we're bummed out about the deer King situation. We're like he's, you know, he seems to not be fully back from the ACL. But all that is to say, like, I'm not congratulating app state for hanging in there with Miami because I don't think Miami is very good. And so if you're congratulating them for hanging in there with Miami, then there's gonna be some value there. Right. So like whether it's martial losing, which again, has no bearing on this game, or app state hanging in with a team that we don't think is any good? Like there's just kind of a double value creation thing there. And we're the full seven points, and I'm absolutely all about that. Love it. What about when we go to the NFL and Thursday Night Football action got the Carolina Panthers were seven and a half point favorites in Houston. And I touched on it earlier on at the start of the pod and tyrod Taylor is out this week. Yeah. How does that affect things? Because seven and a half points is a lot. It's a short week. But who is even the starting QB going to be for the Houston Texans. Right? Your boy Davis Mills, right. Stanford alum. He's the guy who, you know, if you if you're following our content in the springtime, you know, the draft comes around everybody's bet in the NFL Draft. And one of the favorite bets that people make are how many quarterbacks are going to go in the first round, right? And everybody knew the five quarterbacks that were going to go in the first round. And then like, the week before the draft kind of comes up and people go like, you know, there's a sixth quarterback that might go in the first round and people like Oh, really like should I be betting this. There's plus press
Matt:On over five and a half. And that six quarterback, if you'll recall was Davis Mills. Now, he didn't end up going in the first round, right. But there was just enough buzz that made people sort of think that he might. So he ends up falling, you know, into the second or third round to Houston might have been early in the third round. None of that seemed relevant. But the point is, is like he's good enough, potentially here to be in that same conversation, conversation adjacent, right? Like if we're having a tight conversation at a party, and there's somebody who's like, grabbing some chips and dip. And they like overhear what we're talking about. And like, maybe they kick in like a salient point. And I'm like, I don't even know who you are, sir. But like, that's a decent point. That's Davis Mills. He's right. He's over there, grabbing some chips and dip. Hopefully, he's not double dipping, but maybe double dips against Carolina. And so like, you know, I wrote about this earlier in the week. But like, I was really bummed out when tyrod went out, right? Because like, Houston started to have vibes of like, frisky team that like we should be grabbing double digit points with each week, or maybe as a home underdog. They might have a little bit of gumption here. Now he's out. And now we have to trust Davis Mills to get the team into the offense and maybe extend the drive with his legs. It's not really what Davis Mills does, right? That's a tie rod thing. That's not a Davis Mills type of thing. So a lot of uncertainty here, the line is seven and a half. So there's not, there's not much being given here. That this is the line that if you literally took Houston's rating, and you knock them down to where we would have them at the start of the season, right? So at the start of the season, it was Alright, here's Houston's range. how bad could it be? Well, let's start there. Because we think that they're going to be really bad. And over the last two weeks, we would have moved them up. But with Davis Mills, we have to kick them almost right back down to kind of the bottom end of their range. And so that's where this line is right? That this line is built on them being as bad version of themselves, as we could possibly imagine. Now, maybe they're even worse than that. But the point is, is like backing Carolina here, you're saying that Houston is just going to be terrible. And I don't know that that's necessarily the case. I would lean to Houston plus seven and a half. But what I think I rather do here is I might start the tease train a little early this week, with Keith Carolina down six points from seven and a half down to one and a half, right? You're capturing 763? You know, four, if that's even still a key number anymore in the NFL, which I certainly you know, sort of question. Like you're capturing a lot of key numbers, you can tie those into a couple of things over the weekend. It's not the sexiest thing that we've ever done in our lives when it comes to betting, because you're not cashing a ticket right away if it works out. So I don't think Houston wins this game outright. But seven and a half's a lot to lay like people are like Carolina a ton. But they've been very they've been the beneficiaries of First of all, the Jets, and pretty mangled saints group this past weekend. So now they go on the road, right? We always talked about going from home to road, especially after two in a row, we talked about it in the reverse with the Vikings. This isn't a spot to just start laying points with Carolina, that's a hard pass for me there. But maybe teasing it down. And just getting them out of there with a whim might be the play. It's very tough for me as I look at it. And I always try to make the picks just based off of what the actual point spread is right in my chase to pick every game and be over 500 and all that. But as I look at the number, it's seven and a half year, right? It's a lot of points to lay. So I feel like if the number stays there,
Sheldon:I have a very tough time and just taking taking Davis Mills, I have a tough time doing that. But I do have a feeling that as the week progresses and as we get into Thursday, and all the like Joe schmoes like myself start trickling in, maybe we can get that number a little higher, maybe it'll get up to like eight, eight and a half or something like that, where I'd feel a little more comfortable, or in thinking I could take Davis Mills. But as of now I think I gotta lean. I gotta lean Panthers, and I don't like it. I really don't. Yeah, I really don't. But I see I just think I get it pool play all of that sort of thing, right? It's It's especially because a lot of people are in pointspread pools, and it's like, it isn't just about winning and losing, right. It's also stealing a couple of games on people, right? Oh, and it's like you said Joe Schmo is coming in and they're just fine. Lay in the points with Carolina. Like To me, this is never Carolina. This is really just Are you capable of stomaching A Houston but I think you're right, right, like Thursday, you know, five o'clock rolls around people getting home from work. They're like, what are we getting down on? Maybe the teaser thing becomes really popular because that's the other element because I sit here and I say seven and a half. Let's get this down to one and a half. Yeah. You know, what if the books just are inundated with that teaser and they want to move to nine and a half because then a six point teaser gets knocked down but three and a half. Right? Well so now you're looking at nine and a half. Maybe there's some cheap 10s out there. And now you're buying you know you're getting yourself some extra leeway
Matt:Here with Houston. And so, you know, we're getting deep into the weeds, which you know, sometimes, you know, like you and I like to do. That's how I would play it right, I would wait to see if just from teaser protection, that this line goes up to nine and a half, maybe get a cheap 10, you know, minus 115, a minus 120, something like that to just, you know, make sure that nothing crazy necessarily happens. But I think right now Carolina is in the market, they are right at the top of where, you know, people think and could they bust through that sort of glass ceiling, if you will, or no title ceiling, they absolutely could, in the same way that could Houston be even worse. But right now the market has Carolina at the top of what they're doing, and Houston at the bottom of what they're doing. And that's just a buy signal. And the more I'm talking about it, the more I'm likely to just bet Houston here at some point. But again, we're gonna we'll take a wait and see approach because I think you can do better than seven and a half at some point this week. And again, we talk about all the lines and where you can find the lines and information on key injury status, got to go to DRF comm slash sports for all the details and insights, because that site has you covered with all the data and information on all games, not just the NFL. Remember, they got you covered in the NBA and MLB and all that as well. So head to the site for sure for all that information. But I would like to thank you, Mr. Matt Russell for joining us here on the DRS sports podcast, giving us all the information and education that I love to hear on a week to week basis. But where can people find you if they want to get more of your insight on social media? Yeah, it's insight. It's celebration. It's commiseration and it's just bashing the NFL. Because like what are we doing with these reviews? Guys? What are we doing with these taunting calls? What do we like just Can we just have the referee stay out of the game and I'm not like a let them play guy because of a guy grabs a guy and holds them down and pass interference. Like we got to throw a flag here at some point. But the Julio Jones thing like what are we doing reversing that? Yeah, anyway, for that type of just bitterness, even occasional failure and points and maybe some insight and some pics along the way. Find me at em Ross authentic on Twitter, all my stuff that I write for the score is over there. And just anything else that sort of comes to mind. I promise not to blow up your feed. And you know what, if I say something, I'd like to think that it's at least somewhat helpful. Whether that's emotional or educational, that's up for you to decide. In some time. Sometimes it's very much an emotional situation. But yeah, find me over there at Mrs. Authentic on Twitter. Thanks a lot, man. appreciate you joining us.
Sheldon:Thanks to Matt for coming on the pod and if you want to follow me online, you can do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander or on Twitter at Shell Alexander. But for more exclusive data analytics preview videos and expert picks on all the major sports drf.com slash sports has you covered. Don't forget to subscribe to the DRF sports YouTube page. And for all other DRF content Follow us on Facebook, Instagram and on Twitter. That's all I got for now. But don't forget to like rate and follow the pod because we're here twice a week Tuesdays and Fridays, the DRF sports podcast. I'm your host Sean Alexander and until next time, see.
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