We celebrate our wins from Friday's Picks Pod, including 8-2 ATS in the NFL and calling the NC State upset over Clemson.
We celebrate our wins from Friday's Picks Pod, including 8-2 ATS in the NFL and calling the NC State upset over Clemson.
Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready, set.
Sheldon:This is the DRF sports podcast episode seven, make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host Sheldon Alexander. Reminder, we do this twice a week on Tuesdays and Fridays talking football and gambling. We're coming off a huge win by the Cowboys on Monday Night Football and a pic that we actually gave out on the pod last Friday where Matt convinced me to switch over from the Eagles. But that's just what we do here. An eight in two week against the spread in terms of picks we gave out on the pod the NCAA Hurry up offense picks were on frigo in terms of 11 and six record there. And that's before I even mentioned Matt calling Clemson getting upset by n c state. Now if you're wondering why I'm always telling you to check out DRF comm slash sports it's because that's where you can get all of the details and insights including power trends, line movements, team stats, and even more betting angles, including Scott Grambling, his weekly six pack, Scott was hitting underdogs all over the place in both the NFL and NCAA, including outright wins in Notre Dame and Arkansas and college and the chargers and saints in the NFL. The point is DRF comm slash sports is where you need to be every single day for all of our previews. Plus, we deep dive into the games each and every week on the podcast. Basically, however you want your betting information, we've got you covered. And on today's show after another amazing week of picks. I'm just gonna keep bringing them back for more and so my dude Matt Russell joins me on the show right about now.
Matt:Well, well, well, I look up on a Tuesday morning coming off of a 10 and six week. I'm 31 and 17. Overall this season, but I'm not gonna lie, thanks in most parts and listening to this guy on each and every five days he converted me and I'm guessing some of our listeners to more than one pic here and there including Monday Night Football. I came in on the eagles and you're like, No, no, no, I don't think you want to do that. You're very late on it. But hey, converted me over the pics that we gave out on the pod last Friday, eight and two in the NFL picks including a bunch of teams that were just live to win as outright underdogs that was on the pot. Then we'll add in the 11 and six record in the Hurry up offense, including quite possibly the biggest upset of the year in college football as Clemson goes down to NC State. So much more going on. Mr. Matt Russell, I'm running out of breath begging you up. Well, that's just
Sheldon:on this Tuesday morning that I'm happy to have you back on the pod my dude, how you doing after yet another great gambling weekend? I'm good. The big question. Yeah, you answered it already. Right? Like I was so worried. I'm like, Did he switch over to Dallas, I'm watching that game. And they're just, you know, up and down the field on the Eagles, which we talked about, right? If Andy Dalton was able to execute the Kellen Moore offensive gameplan last year against the Eagles, why wouldn't Dak be able to do it, he was able to do it. And of course cowboys got just enough defense and made us both winners. And that's obviously awesome. It's funny, right? You mentioned the eight and two record and like the mind of the better, right the mind of the sports gambler. Immediately, you know I go to not even the to write to that's going to happen. But I think of the eight and the Miami Dolphins coming so close to winning out right and sending everybody home with a ton of money when it came to, you know, round robin money line parlays and whatnot. So you know, you always, unfortunately, always have to focus on the negative. But as you know, as you said big enough begging me up, you know, can we just put like jelly beans in a jar, right? And just sort of like give me some credit there so that I can grab those jelly beans later, when maybe a week doesn't go that well. And I can sit there and just something fungible, right, you know, to have sitting there going like no, but look, I have all these jelly beans that you guys gave me from earlier on in the season. Like these are still worth something, aren't they? Because you know, that's what happens right? There will be a week where we come in and we're wiping sweat from our brow from a three and seven Sunday where we get worked over. And that's just the nature of the game and so you have to kind of keep expectations in check so to speak here but yeah, let's you know, let's keep the energy right, you know that we just keep it going. There's nothing to say we couldn't keep it going. But let's just you know have make sure everybody's doing everything responsibly out there. And that
Matt:And then at least keep some credit for later on when things might not go as well as the season gets more difficult. If you know me and you've known me for a while, I'm gonna take the good times when they come because I know there's gonna be some days, some Tuesdays where it's not gonna be like this. So I'm going to enjoy this when I can, but I want to touch on the Cowboys game just for a little bit. I don't want to spend a lot of time here because there's not a lot to really talk about. But you made me laugh when you said the Kellen Moore offense because I don't know which broadcasts people were watching. But I found it hilarious on the Eli and Peyton broadcast. They're talking about how great have a job Mike McCarthy is done. Because he just he didn't come in most head coaches come in, and they'll try to change the offense and change this and change that. And instead, Mike McCarthy was like, No, no, it's cool. Let's let everything just run with Kellen Moore's offense, because we want to have Dak be comfortable. And we don't want to switch things up for Dak too much coming off the injury and blah, blah. And I'm listening to that. And I'm just like, why do I get the feeling that Mike McCarthy, he's just not that good. He was just like, Well, my offense sucks anyways, and whatever. And then I'm thinking, am I being too hard on Mike McCarthy. And then you see his clock management at the end of the first time. Like, now, a guy has no idea what he's doing. Yeah, imagine getting so much credit for just not firing somebody, right? Like you take the job, and you don't fire like the best guy on the staff and like you get credit for that. Like, that's an incredible way to live your life. Now. I mean, this is a guy. And we've talked about this before, who came into the interview, and just flat out lied about learning analytics, which is again, hilarious, because he's sitting there trying to figure out, you know, should I call timeout? Should I not call timeout. And it's like, that really felt like it was probably day one of your learning analytics tutorial that you allegedly took. But of course, he also admitted that he basically lied about that, and again, somehow didn't get fired. So yeah, the mike McCarthy thing is probably what's going to hold the Cowboys back because it's not always going to be, you know, 40 point outbursts, and there's probably going to be a close game here or there that they're going to need to win if they're going to have any sort of, you know, macro success this season. so hilarious watching him, but awesome to watch the Cowboys work on offense, especially if you've laid the points with the Cowboys. And you know me, right, we're loath to give any points. You know, you we're certainly looking when it comes to the Eagles. Eagles were a very popular underdog, which is always kind of a red flag there as well. And so happy to watch them run up and down the field on the Eagles last night as given the fact that we were laying a few points and didn't want to have to sweat it. Exactly, exactly. So I thank you for converting me and some of our listeners for sure, as you mentioned, very popular pig. But here's the thing, cowboys roll on Monday night super easy, but I want to start with how you gave us a bunch of underdogs that won outright on Sunday. And in fact, one game off from the underdog, round robin moneyline parlays, which I'm loving, I think I called you in the middle of Sunday afternoon he just sent me like this is amazing. This is amazing. Let's talk about your boy Jacoby percent and the dolphins because on the one hand, I didn't want to be too greedy. You know, he covered the four points for me. And I'm okay with that. I'll take that dub against the spread. But he's also close to having you Scrooge McDuck, another five for five on these underdogs here. Right. On the one hand, I'm like, Can I really be mad? It's Jacoby. brissette. Like, you know, he's, he was doing a lot on Sunday. But what was your What was your takeaway from that game? Yeah, my takeaway is just never call. Never call. Because it's 14 to nothing when you call and you're like, I love this. I'm having the time of my life. Like we've already cashed the three from earlier on. So we're just free rolling everything. And you're like, this is the best. I don't know how ever lived before. This might be a slight, slight exaggeration. But yeah, it's 14 and nothing. We're rolling along there. And you know, everything's great. And yeah, then it sort of falls apart. And it's funny again, hold on, hold on screen pass on the like, your own goal. I didn't like it. Yeah, the sweating and it's just like, let's check it down here to a guy three yards deep in the endzone that that's not great. And yeah, like, does that cost that, you know, obviously, we get the dog off the bar at the end of the first half. Anyway, a lot of stuff goes wrong. But then you get to a point where like, Oh, my God, the Raiders are the team that's going to cover here. And you know, I don't know, you know, bad beach or right side wrong side or whatever. Right. I think our thesis in general was correct about the dolphins and the over exaggeration there when it came to the point spread, right, the overreaction, and that ended up allowing us to cash on, you know, against the spread, because if that is two and a half the way that it should have been, you know, a couple of different things happen. One, maybe we don't even bet it right, because that's a fair price. And so it's these overreactions that, you know, we talked about, you know, switching pics from Philly to Dallas and helping your ledger from that standpoint, but sometimes the market is going to help your ledger right that sometimes the market is going to go across that three, and then when the game lands three, that's the difference.
Sheldon:In that game, so, you know, as we go along through the rest of the season, though, it gets trickier, right? Because the market gets smarter, we get more aware of some of these teams. And you know, there's a pretty decent example this week of Baltimore at Denver. And if that games in week one, I feel like Baltimore is a three and a half point favorite. And you can then you know, sit here and see some value on Denver as an underdog, right. And they would be in the money line parlay, and all of that sort of thing. And now that line is down to like, one, one and a half, and there just isn't the same, right? You don't have that same value proposition. And, you know, the market has seen three games and now knows and so these money line parlays in general get harder to do, because the spreads get more accurate, right, the the teams are more appropriately favored than they are early on in the season. So it's nice that we got at least, you know, five out of five in a week, one, four out of five last week, and we're able to sort of grab a bunch of doubloons in our bag, we didn't get the full silo treatment this weekend. But as far as per set is concerned, yeah, like completely functional, like was the office going to look that much different? Again, you know, with to uh, you know, sorry, but I just don't see that being the case. And I think you know, if, if you want an early bet for Sunday, I'm grabbing Miami, minus one for like a little bit of extra price. They're like, I think it's about minus 115 you can get I'll grab that now because kind of Nothing good can come for the for the Colts excuse me this this week, because you got a guy who just played on two sprained ankles and Carson Wentz and looked exactly like a guy who's playing with two sprained ankles. And so if there's any re aggravation, or they're just like, you know what, we can't even bother with this. That line has to go up. So as far as early bets for Sunday, it's worth mentioning dolphins again, go back to it right again, the value is still there with the dolphins and Jacoby brissette Yeah, that was our biggest part of the conversation in discussing that game, right? Just the difference between two and reset. And we thought what the full week of practice does drop off in reality match the drop off in perception, right? And people assume Oh, no, no to Jacoby. brissette. And you got me on the whole how many starts has he had and you're seeing when you watch the game? My guys just serviceable? Yes, yeah. Right. And yeah, it gets you a lot that gets you a lot. But as mentioned gambling margins are so slim, crazy action on Sunday in the NFL. You mentioned Justin Tucker, saving survivor pools everywhere banking in a 66 yard game winning field goal. We'll get to that in a bit. You know, we're all over the lions eight point spread, there's a cover. But there's so many other wild finishes and I kind of need to discuss with you the Sunday night or at my Niners they lose to the Packers. And I can't lie for the blip that it was an overall great weekend. This one kind of really hurt my feelings because you're sitting there watching the diners. And you see everything in the structure of what they do. being correct. Like the structure is there. Yeah. But there are two big things that stood out that stood out to me. One Jimmy Garoppolo is happy feet. He's never he's never confident in the pocket. Two. running backs don't matter. And I agree with you there. But when they got to like their fifth running back and my guy just doesn't hit holes hard. You're just thinking, Okay, I see what Shanahan's doing here. But there are some blips here in terms of the the boy genius head coach. What was your takeaway from watching that game other than Aaron Rodgers? Don't you just love being romantic about football or whatever the hell he said. Right? Moneyball reference from from Raj. Listen, we could probably do an entire podcast just on this game in part because Listen, I'll give you credit right? You lasted this far before mentioning the Sunday Night Football game and I don't know that that necessarily would have been the case if we had done the same Monday morning and you're still a little hot as a San Francisco 40 Niners fan so handful of things right you're absolutely right about the runningback situation. It's funny that you know the broadcast especially collingsworth he'll sort of allude to things and just didn't really diplomatic way right he'll talk about how the San Francisco 40 Niners are, you know trying to tell Trey sermon who's a very shifty guy like compliment compliment compliment they're trying to tell him just put your foot in the ground one cut and go which has been a Shanahan and I say Shanahan as a last name because both he and his father It has been a staple of their offense right you take one cut and then you just hit the hole and then you go none of this stock start joking around back there type stuff, right? So that's an element but you mentioned Jimmy G and like,
Matt:I want to rein in I gotta rein everybody in because it isn't just you because it was just a sea of like Trey Lance, you know, here we go like we need this we need this. And I just started to go
Sheldon:Okay, a couple of different things. One, the offensive lines not getting it done. So you talk about the Happy Feet it's like yeah, you know, we watched Dak Prescott getting in the end zone, right? Like that looked very Jimmy g like, but you know what that looked like that looked like a perfect fessional quarterback getting overwhelmed by defensive line that was not getting blocked on that specific play right and so the problem with Jimmy G is that like He's surprised and maybe he's been spoiled by really good offensive line play as he got to San Francisco a couple of years ago and has been able to sort of statue it back there make his reads and hit his and hit his throws because he also doesn't get any credit for good throws right like he was ripping some yesterday and it was like silence on the internet never going like oh what a great throw and even the pic by Jay Alexander was actually a really good throw but sometimes you have to give credit to the other team right and so there's some throws there that aren't you know, some interceptions that aren't necessarily Jimmy DS fault, but when it looks ugly, like for whatever reason Well, here's the reason. The reason is Trey Lance is sitting there right that's why people go Oh, if Dak Prescott had somebody sitting behind him like that, the Cowboys of course would never do Dak Prescott like that. But if he did right you'd be like oh my god like fumble in the end zone like What is he trying to do there? Right like it was a very Jimmy g like play. The issue is the tre Lance conversation, right? And this and it's and it's and it's more than just should he start, should he not because he absolutely should not start. I don't believe for one second that the intricacies of that offense.
Matt:allow for Trey Lance to have a handle on that. And so, people get tantalize, because Shanahan puts him in for a couple of plays that are absolutely suited perfectly for his skill set. Right. And that's not going to extrapolate to 60 plays in a game. Now the issue of Shanahan here is and this is not new. This is not new. He is one of the most conservative decision makers in the NFL, but he's got a flat brim hat on and he's young and so we all just assumed he's out there like running and gunning and getting a wild ride and it's the same thing with Kliff Kingsbury, so he's really just a high rent playing Kliff Kingsbury at this point, where at fourth and one at the 50 you have the toy right? So it isn't like tre Lance should start. It's no let's give me eight to 10 snaps from Trey Lance, let's get him in there and short yardage in the red zone when you want to do more things to open up the run game. But if you don't trust the run game, because the offensive line isn't necessarily where it needs to be. And maybe the running back is a little uncertain. Right. And you can imagine what maybe mesh handoffs might look like between Lance and sirmon. Right, two rookies out there that's got fumble potential written all over it and I imagine Shanahan right now is sitting there. I don't think he likes Jimmy g either, right? The reason why they traded up and drafted a quarterback that rate there was a red flag on Jimmy G. I don't think he wants Jimmy g in there. But I also think he's smart enough at least to look around at practice and have conversations with Trey Lance and go like, he's just not ready. It's just not going to be as good as the Jimmy g run offense and it sucks that sometimes he fumbles and sometimes it looks sketchy, but like a lot of quarterbacks at times, when they turn around, they're supposed to run a play and all of a sudden like the defensive lineman is already there. It's like that's not supposed that dude is not supposed to be there. And so like he doesn't necessarily have that next level awareness to know that that guy is not supposed to be there, you know, and is there and it's like we beat him up for that because he is just better than average instead of really really awesome and we assume Trey Lance is going to be really really awesome and I'm just here to tell you I promise you he's not going to be really really awesome this season. Let's see it next year whatever right like we just talked about to and Jacoby brissette being sort of an equal right to it's far more polished than Lance's and so everything you know from a land standpoint we just have to be a little more patient and we just have to give Jimmy g a break a little bit and we need more out of Shanahan we need more out of the offensive line for that team to tighten things up and I think they do this weekend by the way so everybody just remain calm out there. Yeah your overall point I totally agree with that. Clearly if Trey Lance was ready, he would be in the game more and the part I think people miss and you know obviously this is just because I follow the niners a lot more but their offense as you mentioned is super super super complex. And I remember there's a story that came out last year about with the running backs you have to take a test on the Saturday to make sure that you know the playbook and if you don't pass that test you don't play so like that's what's going on in an NFL team with their running backs on a week to week basis. So imagine what it's like for a quarterback who as you mentioned hasn't played a full season of football in over a year right well you remember sermon sermon didn't even play in the first game right? And everyone's like, why is he not playing like what's the deal there? Yeah, like you make that point maybe he failed the test the day before right? And the legend Mitchell didn't write you wouldn't you don't think they would want a relatively high draft pick to start in that game, right, but rules, rules as rules right? And so you
Sheldon:Yeah, like there's there's so much going on there that you need a guy a veteran presence and if they think Trey Lance can be that guy down the road, that's why they made that pick because you know, if he can do the stuff, you know, if he can run everything from a mental standpoint with his talent level, like now we're talking right and of course, people make the Colin kapernick comparison, but it's like, people have figured out how to stop the read option, right? Like every team does that and 10 years ago, whatever that was, it's like that was still relatively fresh in the NFL and he was a next level athlete maybe even a better athlete than Trey Lance at least from like a running standpoint. So yeah, I mean patience is necessary here. I know it's it's you know, it's tough to watch sometimes, but like, you know, these bad plays happen right? They happen so so Olympian, let me ask you this on the flip side of that, right, the the calm in terms of Niners and from a gambling perspective, it's like relax, they're still okay, there might not be like the elite of the elite, but that's a still really good football team on a week to week basis when we're talking about it from a gambling perspective. I'm curious about your thoughts on the Packers who actually won the game and we haven't even mentioned that side of it yet or is it just because we're just like, Oh, it's Aaron Rodgers? Like that was just Aaron Rodgers doing Aaron Rodgers type things Yeah, it looks like we take that for granted. I you know, I mean, listen, I take it for granted maybe some people do that it's just more take it for you know, just something that is that just exists right? Like you know, we'll talk about sort of the idea of teams and betting and what you're going to expect from them on a week to week basis for the Packers like it's a very tight range of expectations right like it's like okay, we know what we're going to get and then you know, because we know what we're gonna get from the offense by and large right obviously you won not necessarily the case and so it's like well why did they win that game? And if you're telling me anything other than davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers right like i'm not i'm not i'm not hearing it right because that you know, the defense was good enough especially in the first half. But as much as you know, we just spent like talking about the woes of San Francisco if Kyle use check gets tackled on the one yard line and they require an extra 1015 seconds to score that touchdown 40 Niners win that game yeah right so it's like for all of the like oh whatever because they were down for so long. I'm not gonna give the Packers a ton of credit on you know on defense right like they held up for a quarter and a half or so or two quarters. But you know, again, that was why it was so frustrating that Shanahan didn't go for it on fourth and one a couple of different times, but certainly, you know, at midfield when it was 10 to nothing and so then you go Okay, like, what about the it's just the Packers right? It's just Aaron Rodgers he's throwing dimes, right? He's not being swayed. He's also forcing San Francisco to have no chill back there right like the guys are panicking and taking pi penalties as well and that's Rogers related. So yeah, it is it's like okay, this is what you're gonna get with Rogers does that mean they're gonna win every game they're gonna cover every spread? No, because of San Francisco had done anything offensively in the first half they probably win that game but again, things go awry the way that they do and you needed you know, yeah, you know, strangely enough you needed us check to fall down on the one yard line to win that game which again, is sort of counter to what you'd expect because you know, the chargers and the Chiefs have the same issue it's like you gave my guy Patrick mahomes too much time he's going to burn you same exact thing with Rogers and so you know, you know that with that going in and that's what you fear every single week. Beautiful segue there my dude as we switch gears to some big boys going down and you mentioned the Chiefs losing the Bucs also losing What's your biggest takeaway from those losses there by two Super Bowl contenders? Yeah, I mean just fundamentally right like that the cream of the crop isn't as far ahead that we think right because we look obviously at the Bucs and the chiefs and they're the Favorites coming into this season because they were in the Super Bowl last year and guess what, that kind of happens all the time right? We take the teams who are in the Super Bowl and if nothing crazy happens no radical changes occur we make them the Favorites right? We give them all sorts of credit and I make you know put them atop my ratings and all of that sort of thing. And then you have to watch a few games to see like what are the fatal flaws and we talked about the Chiefs fatal flaw defense, and that obviously was the case right? Like again with the in the Chargers game as the charges are basically able to go up and down the field. They start throwing interceptions and turning the ball over as well. And so you had a really low end performance from the chiefs. As for the Bucs, right like is it just a bad matchup maybe right because the Rams work them over we talked about that going into that game and why we like the Rams in that game because again, you know, sometimes you just look at last year stuff we just talked about with like the cowboys and the Eagles because a lot of times it's coaching right as much as we get excited about the plays that these guys make and the talent and the fantasy football aspect of like I love this guy and this guy's you know, going off and going for on his auction price for
Matt:28 bucks, and this guy is going for 40 and whatever. And we price all these guys out. But it's like the coaches are the ones who are making these moves, right. And for whatever reason the Rams moves offensively work really well against the Bucs defense. And it's maybe because now that they have Matt Stafford, but it was the same thing with Jared Goff where they just go, you don't run, I'm gonna bother to run against the bucks. Right? That's what we talked about, you don't run against the bucks. And so, you know, they're built to beat certain teams in that way. Yeah, but if you can throw on the box, just like if you can throw on anybody, right? this era of the NFL, like you're going to be in decent shape. And so in both cases, it's like both have to be dropped a little bit. chargers are very legitimate team, right? We've been sort of waiting on them to have that game where they convert inside the red zone, they did that. And the Rams are obviously a legitimate team as well. And so when we talked about, you know, okay, are the Bucs gonna go undefeated? like, No, they're not. And this certainly see seems like a game that at the end of the year, we'll look back and go, yeah, makes total sense that they lost that game, right? Same thing, when it comes to the chiefs and chargers, we talked about mahomes, he often gets slowed down by what the Chargers do defensively. And it's not just a personnel thing, right? It's not because they have Joey bosa. It's because they operate in a certain way that makes mahomes have to be, you know, he has to have patience, right. And even the best quarterbacks run out of patience and just kind of fire the ball down the field at times. And they were all over it when he did that. So, you know, again, obviously not surprising, because we had both of those teams to pull the upset over the weekend. So you know, not going to beat up the Chiefs or, you know, or the Buccaneers to too much because it's not crazy or whatever. It's really just more saying, okay, Rams and chargers need to be included in if not the first year, certainly the second tier, and I think we were a little slow on the Chargers, because of the way you know, these games have gone in the first couple of weeks. Yeah, and I mean, matchups are key. You mentioned coaching is key. And despite the fact that chargers won that game, they messed up like it looked like the same old chargers, like I check the sidelines and make sure Anthony Lin wasn't still like hovering around on the sidelines there. Because the end of the game is just kind of like, what are you doing? What was that game plan. But end of the day, take the wins when you can get them understand the matchups in terms of some teams just fit better against other teams. And we move on and we continue. But another thing that we love to do on this pod is discuss overall seasonal themes, right? Yeah. So what are some of the teams that no one wants to play one week? And then likes the next week? Yeah, exactly. Right. Like that is our overall theme. So when you look at the board, you know, you have to go Okay, you know, we've used the saints, right? The saints have actually worked out incredibly well. And we were actually on that really, really early, right? Obviously, we're on them to beat the, the Packers excuse me, and then it's okay, it's not going to be as good next week, because the range of possibilities, you know, for all of these teams, so when I talked about ratings, like moving a team up or downgrading, right, that's sort of an average of your range, right? So let's use any team, you know, we can use the Chiefs you can use the Packers, we talked about the Packers having really a tight range, but the saints are a team that might have a really large range, right? any given week, they can look like in 80 out of 100 if they are healthy, right if the offensive line is healthy and ready to go if the defense is healthy, you know, as long as Alvin Kamara is out there, there's always some capability from an offensive standpoint, and if they can play within the structure that Sean Payton requires offensively, jamis isn't going to do anything crazy. And so they'll be at the top end of whatever their range happens to be. But the problem is, if things get a little loose, and maybe some injuries pile up, the bottom half of their range becomes an issue, right? And that's what we saw in week two. And so if their range hypothetically, is 50 to 70, sometimes they can play like a 70 out of 100. To like in week one. Sometimes they can play like a 50 out of 100 like a week to team right? And that's where you have to sort of handicap the concept of Okay, well which version Are we going to see? And so last week, you know, we probably got a middle ground type edition of the saints, but we probably got the worst version speaking of range of the Patriots, right? So against the Jets, maybe they look like a 70. But against the saints, you come back and you go oh, this seems more like a 50. Now they're not a 50 all the time, they're probably just a 60 that can play up and play down depending on different circumstances, matchups, injuries, etc, etc. Right? And so, you know, as we look at all of that we look to the next week, if a team just played really high up on their range, right? The expectation is a regression to the mean now maybe they just regress to their average range of their range. Or maybe they go all the way to the other side. And that's what we see with the saints right where they're just going we're swinging back and forth, where the packers are just like they're just always a 65. right because of the defense. The defense is going to keep them from being an 80 and Rogers is going to keep them from being 50 so they're ranges between, like 60 and 70. Right? Like it's a very tight, you know, a possibility of outcomes there. And so when you're looking at handicapping games, you go, Okay, well, which version of x team or y team? Are we going to get this week? Right? So, you know, and also what is the market thing. So using the saints as an example, because they have been such a perfect example for this.
Sheldon:They're headed home, right? And people are gonna be like, oh, in the dome, like it's gonna be electric, you know, blah, blah, blah. And so the assumption is that you're gonna play at the top of their range again, right? Whereas for me, I look at it and they just had terron Armstead, their left tackle he's now on injured reserve or he's out for a few weeks, you know, they've been missing their center. And if you look at that game against the Patriots, right, like great news, like we had them outright, you know, that was awesome, blah, blah, blah. But you will look at that game, there was a pick six from Matt Jones. Okay, relative outlier type performance there. And there was a full on yo lo jameis. Winston moment, right, and it's on all the highlights, because it gets converted, he throws one up and on both ends of the of the play, right, people are getting tackled while trying to do their job. But that's a play that is an interception. You know, with the Bucs that's an interception the vast majority of the time, right, that's an intersection if Jimmy G is throwing it right. And so you go Okay, like that's two touchdowns that were pretty outlier type scenarios, that if they go the other way, we're talking about a much closer game. And so, you know, we'll talk more about this later on in the week. But I don't think you know, I expect a lower end performance from the saints. Now the problem is they're playing the giants, right? And so what's the Giants range, because their giants range is further back, right? Like they are, you know, a 30 to 50 type of a team, right, they might look closer to mediocre if you know, 50, obviously being average, if they're closer to mediocre in that situation, then, okay, like maybe the saints are also playing the mediocre version of themselves, at which point you've got yourself a really close game, but if the saints bring it, and they're 70, and the you know, giants are, you know, the Giants we saw last week or in week one, and then there are 30, then that's when you get into a blowout, right, but all of those things are sort of, you know, have potential, when you see a team upset a team outright, it's because they've played as good as they can possibly play, and the other team is probably playing as worse as they can possibly play. So take that into account when you're looking at the board this week, and just go Okay, like, Who's gonna play a top their range, and who's gonna play at the bottom of the range, you don't even necessarily have to make ratings on your own, those are certainly helpful, you will find those incredibly helpful, but just sort of understand, okay, like, Am I gonna get the best of this team? Or the worst of this team? And why? If you can answer the why to why a team might play really, really well or might not play very well at all, then that's the really great Head Start. And that's why we've had a lot of success at the start of this season. So yes, even with all that said, with everything that happened this past weekend, there's always one last angle that we like to discuss when we talk about the Ravens. Are they the bad beat of the week? You know, it's funny, right? Because normally we think of it from an against the spread standpoint, from a bad beat standpoint, everybody who didn't have the Ravens in survivor suffered a bad beat, right? Because if 10%, roughly of the big Vegas survivor contest, but probably the same ratio in your survivor contest at home, had the Ravens and those people got away with one right a fourth in 19, a miss delay of game penalty, and of course, a 66 yard kick by the great Justin Tucker, who absolutely deserves to have the record, right. He's the best kicker for my money of all time. And so for him to bomb that not that surprising, even though I don't think that records ever getting broken. It's never getting better than 66 unless we get into full like robot territory, which you know, will probably happen long after we're gone, especially if bad beats keep rolling up.
Matt:So, you know, I think it's actually kind of like the greatest moment in teaser history, right, if you can sort of look at it that way. So a really good win for the for the tons of people that teased the Ravens down from seven and a half down to one and a half, and they win by two and they cover those teaser legs, which on a week like this had a lot of teaser legs winning, right, so it probably kept some things alive, that ended up winning or even clinched some teasers out there. So whether it was the Ravens running around like crazy out on the field for the second straight week, or people at home, who teased the Ravens running around their house. You know, obviously that was a really great win for them. So maybe not necessarily a bad beat unless you're one of the 90% like me, who didn't have the Ravens. If somebody who goes on to win survivor who had the Ravens this week, that's one that they're going to circle for the rest of their lives. But yeah, nothing in the way of a bad beat unless you're sitting there with your arms folded. Like I was bummed out that more people didn't get knocked out a survivor this week.
Sheldon:Well, as we switch gears to the NCAA, I know there's definitely not a game in which you are necessarily sitting there with your arms folded, maybe your arms are up, and especially when I look at an 11 and six record in terms of what you gave out last week in the NCAA, and the thing that we call our Hurry up offense picks, but that doesn't even include the biggest upset of the college football season so far. And that was NC State over Clemson. You're all over that one what a ride that game was, but what what was it that you saw coming into the game and then was actually executed in terms of NC State beating Clemson? Yeah. And listen from a pointspread standpoint in college football, right? You get lower level teams knocking off higher level teams, but those aren't top 10 type teams, right? So you get the occasional like, for touchdown upset. We even saw Oregon as 14 and a half point favorites, or excuse me underdogs if you will knock off Ohio State, but like Oregon was a top 10 team going into that game, right? So we were probably giving Ohio State way too much credit in that instance. So when you're talking about sort of biggest upset of the year, it's like, anytime Clemson goes down to a team that isn't Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State and like maybe Oklahoma, right? It's a really big deer deal. But here's the thing, whether it's NFL football teams, but certainly college football teams and we talked about the idea of range with those with the NFL, and college football and you know, sports in general and society in general, right? People are going to tell you who they are right? They are going to show you who you are, it is up to you to believe them. Men, women, college football teams, they are going to tell you who they are. And so we talked about this last week, right? Like Clemson was just telling us who they are. They're like, you know what, we're not that great. Offensively, we have way more talent than the other teams do. So defensively, we're probably going to shut you down. But if you have somebody capable, we might be in a little bit of trouble here, right? And so it comes down you know, in the NC State kicker is missing kicks left, right and center. And you're like, Can we put a dagger into this, Clemson. And then it goes to overtime. And NC NC State gives up the touchdown to Clemson but they obviously get their chance and may get a touchdown. And then they immediately get another touchdown. And it's just the greatest time we've ever had in our lives. So it's Yeah, it's the headliner, right upsets from this past week, and it throws the dagger into Clemson from a national championship standpoint. But more importantly, as we talked about last week, right? We you know, we tried to throw a few extra bets here, especially on the Tuesday episode. And you know, maybe there's not necessarily a ton to bet on. We talked about the idea of the ACC potentially being up for grabs, right. And it was the idea of Okay, whether it's this week or some other week, Clemson's going to trip up and what that's going to do is going to it's going to do one of two things. One, it's going to show us that Clemson is just not that great, so that even if they make the championship game, they are certainly beatable. And to if it happens to a team like NC State, right, then that means that NC State now has to lose two games in league for them not to make the championship game over Clemson. Obviously, if it's somebody else entirely, that's great, too. But that's the big deal. Right? It means that Clemson is going to be you know, really up against it for making the championship game. And so we grabbed Virginia Tech, at plus 300. There's some 310s out there last week, because they're in the other division. And what that means is, you know, they obviously would face either Clemson, or the Clemson replacement, if you will, in the championship, which if it's anybody other than Clemson, Virginia Tech plus 300, would be great value. Now you're saying Well, how do we know that it's going to be Virginia Tech. And the problem is, we don't know. But what we do know is that they've already beaten North Carolina, which is the other really good or allegedly really good team in the ACC. And so they had to say they have the same setup that North Carolina State now has, where they are sitting there going, Oh, okay, like we got a really legitimate shot here because we are essentially a game and a half above the next best team, if you will, now North Carolina lost again this week. So Virginia Tech's way ahead of them now and it's a different team, you know, that we have to worry about or some other team that we have to worry about when it comes to messing with Virginia Tech. So we've got Virginia Tech plus 300 to win that division. And of course, you could have bet them for the ACC in general, you can still bet NC State for the ACC in general. Now if you're sitting there going like I missed out on the really big number because you know, we should have bet this before Clemson, you know, they beat Clemson, you can take the money that you made betting on the NC State money line, and you can roll that over on NC State. So if they were, you know, 25 to one to win the ACC before last week, and now they're only eight to one. Well, you have a plus 300
Matt:Right that you just took. So take your initial investment plus the three to one that you ended up winning, take all four of those units, right, the initial one plus the three that you won, and roll it on to NC State at plus 800. And that ends up being 32 to one, right, which is still better than the price that it was last week. So you didn't miss out on anything. If you hit the NC State money line, if you didn't hit the NC State money line, obviously things get a little bit different. But you have this whole world opened up to you now, in the ACC, where a bunch of different teams can win. Maybe that's Wake Forest, maybe Miami somehow shows us something that we didn't think that they were necessarily capable of. And we still don't really, you know, like there's a bunch of different options there because that is wide open. And that was the fundamental point last week when we talked about Clemson being being vulnerable, and we were able to take advantage of it right away by having NC State win that game.
Sheldon:I like it. I like it crazy games going on. There are some other upsets as well as Notre Dame beat Wisconsin, that sets up a big matchup this week, which we'll obviously get to on the Friday pot, I assume absolute massive things we're going to talk about. One of the things we always do on the Tuesday pot as well is discuss the Heisman watch, and maybe some other futures. Can we quickly go through those? Yeah, I mean, this is this is Heisman weekend, essentially right? When it comes to the marketplace because you have the two favorites in some sketchier books. Both of them are minus favorites. I don't know how that's possible necessarily. Don't bet if you ever go and you see Matt crowl and Bryce young as both minus favorites at your sports book, not only avoid that market just run for the hills from that sports book in general, because that is suspect. But the point is, is those two guys are leading the way right now in the odds market because there just isn't any other option. Right. We talked about Clemson right. And DJ was a guy who was up there in the marketplace. Sam Howell right, North Carolina just lost. Spencer rattler, you know there's barely surviving over there in Oklahoma. And he's not looking particularly made CJ Stroud with Ohio State. Right. There's a bunch of people in that collection that have already basically self ejected from the Heisman candidacy. Right. And JT Daniels is still up there. But like there's no way JT Daniels is going to win the Heisman Trophy. And so that's why we're sitting here with our Desmond Ritter tickets going like okay, like this is a pretty good spot to be in because whether it's that game against Notre Dame, that's the feature focus, right? Like if he shows out, he throws his hat into the ring, meanwhile, corral and young now let's nucky might be 52 to 50. And they both you know, throw for 500 yards and they both don't move from that Heisman market. Right? Maybe corral has a nice game anyway. Even in a loss. I mean, they are two touchdown underdogs. Yeah. But you know, there's a reason to believe that one of those two guys is probably going to come out of there as the favorite and there's a decent chance that you know, listen, if Alabama loses Bryce young is gonna get blamed for it. Right? Even if it's 50 to 250. Like that's just how things work over with Alabama. And there's a decent chance that Alabama wins by three touchdowns, and that their defense being an Alabama defense, carouse, wait for it chorale, and now he's out of it right. And so if that's all happening, while Desmond Ritter is beating Notre Dame at Notre Dame, which by the way, they opened up short favorites in that game at Notre Dame, which is still, you know, that's been dicey for Notre Dame, but it's an undefeated Notre Dame team. So again, if he shows out while this is all going on, right, it's could turn into a two horse race, whoever survives the Alabama Ole Miss game, and Desmond Ritter, and now all of a sudden, you know, you're really, you've really got something interesting going forward when it comes to the highs and race. So you know, a lot of these bats, right, especially in the future, sometimes, you know, it's not that it comes down to something happening early on in the season, but it certainly puts into focus whether or not you have a chance to win, right? So we talked about the Chargers beating the chiefs, if you bet the Chargers in any sort of future capacity. That was a really good indicator of whether or not you have a live bet. And so that's what's happening with the Heisman this week. With our Desmond Ritter bats. I'm super excited about it gonna be a lot of fun. As far as the Wisconsin Notre Dame game should be worth you know, is worth mentioning. We talked about Wisconsin 12 to one to win the big 10 last week. Don't get too bummed out if you bet that because they lost a Notre Dame one, it has nothing to do with the big 10 standings, right, which is the only thing that matters when it comes to this bet. And to if you close your eyes, at certain point in that fourth quarter, Wisconsin was up 13 to 10. Right? I know the score was 41 to 13 because things got super weird late, but that Wisconsin team other than the fact that Graham Mertz stinks, which we kind of knew already, right? Like it doesn't mean that they can't beat Iowa. At home later on in the season, right? Those two things don't really have anything to do with each other. So don't freak out if your sports with speaking of books, right? If your book adjusts Wisconsin off of 12 to one if they make them 15 to 116 one so on, go ahead and bet it right. Like if that didn't change anything other than just perception, right? And that's the thing. We're looking
Matt:To take advantage of here so go ahead and bet that at a better number than 12 to one if that's available to you
Sheldon:I like it man I like it well let's get to some more pics because we always know there's some action in both the NCAA and in the NFL Let's start with the NCAA since we're here anyways and we got Virginia at Miami and we'll talk about what the plague is right now at the Hurricanes program as even your man's like hurt herb streets out here going in on Miami.
Matt:Which everyone's kind of like whoa What's going on here? But anyways, Miami is four point favorites at home to Virginia where is your confidence at exactly with Miami right now in relation to that line? Yeah, I mean this one it This game is strange to me as it sounds right it's an ACC game but it's not as exciting to me as AP state Marshal was last week right like we I'm like Marshall plus seven like this is a thing that's happening they have the better quarterback like they might be the better team this is great news. This one's obviously a lot more confusing right? Because you've got Miami and Miami is a straight fade across the board this season and kind of always has been for me with the exception especially after the app state game so you know congratulations on the 69 nothing went to Central Connecticut State last week right like I don't know that you ironed anything out other than the fact that every single player even the deepest person on your bench was better than every single player on the other team so like okay fine so to me this is this is fade Miami I II bet Virginia here or nothing now the problem is once you know what's current herb st finally has an opinion then you know you're actually going to see some overreaction here potentially right and so Miami now goes to down to minus four here at home against Virginia night game like this should it be a game that Miami wins right last we saw Virginia they were getting upset by Wake Forest last week so it's not like this Virginia team like we're dying to bet them either. So there isn't necessarily a strong play here. It's really more just like if you had to bet something I guess it's taking the points with Virginia but like you have to understand that like the market has adjusted to Miami and so if there's anything left of Miami that people you know the reason why people were liking Miami why they were six and a half point favorites to Michigan State why they were eight and a half to abstain et cetera, et cetera. If there's anything left there it will it should come out on Thursday after getting called out on a national level. So I mean this is by and large a stay away game for me here so but it's still interesting right? It's still interesting watch, even if it's not sort of there's isn't a massive lien or a play for sure. In the way that something like martial and upstate last week was for me, and we finish of course with Thursday Night Football, the Jags and bangles and for this matchup Remember, you can always get a full breakdown@drf.com slash sports where a guy Scott Grambling has a preview on this game but also got to shout him out because he had a big weekend in terms of his six pack picks in both the NFL and NCAA so don't forget to check that out each and every week. And check out before Thursday night you better be reading his preview on this game as well but Bengals seven and a half point favorite at home to the Jags you got to like high profile young quarterbacks there Yeah. Trevor Lawrence was doing a little too much on the weekend.
Sheldon:How high does damar chase look with Joe burrow there's there's lots of different angles there but in terms of the seven and a half points for the bangles, where are you looking here with this cuz that's a lot of points to lay. Yeah. Let me put it to you this way I'm gonna turn this around for you. Okay, we talked about ratings early on in you know in this in the podcast so for you for each one of these teams, right Jacksonville and Cincinnati. We'll start with Jacksonville right like out of 100 What would you rate this team as sort of their average state with like 20 being the worst team in the league at being the best team of the league in the league and sort of anything higher or lower than that is sort of best team of all time worst team of all time with 50 being like straight mediocre so like you know where you know how would you sort of rate the Jaguars taking out you know, taking out that they've you know, they've lost all their games and all of that stuff and all of their like noise about Urban Meyer like you know, how would you rate that team at this point? At this point, I gotta go with them at like 30 maybe a 40 summary? Right? So I guess 30 like 35 Okay, that's and that's totally fair. Yeah. And so I'm looking at this Okay, so the other one obviously Cincinnati where would you have them right so a little bit of excitement you know, should they have necessarily won that game against the Vikings in week one?
Matt:You know, didn't look so great, what four interceptions three or four interceptions against the bears in week two? And then they you know, rough up the Steelers who who knows what's going on there and week three. So where do you have them on on a scale of sort of zero to 100 I'm gonna give them slightly better than the Jags but not that much I'll put them at like a 45 to 50 somewhere in that range. Yeah I think you and I are on the same page yeah and we and I should and I should say like we did not talk about this beforehand right? And so when you when you sort of frame it that way whether it's 35 and 45, like I even have it sort of 30 and 48 ish when it comes to Cincinnati right like I think they're just a really average team right now right? capable of you know, being a little bit better than that and certainly cable being a lot worse than that. So with those two ratings sort of in conjunction once you sort of feed them into the formula if you will, for a point spread I cannot get to seven and a half in this game, right like I topped out at like five five and a half and so you go Okay, let's retrofitted a little bit here and go How do we get to seven and a half? Well to get to seven and a half either you have to think that the Jags are a 25 like way down like like pretty much bottom of the barrel in the league now maybe you're sitting there at home and you're going like yeah I've got them there right like I have I have them right around there yeah you know or you need to get Cincinnati up to like close to a 60 which is a obviously better than average team now I just don't see how either of those things are necessarily fair. If you know the Jets right now are like a 20 and the Texans are 25 now I realize that the Texans beat the jet the Jags but I'm talking about the Texans version that is without tyrod Taylor so you know if I have them sort of the third or fourth worst team in the league here showed a little fight you know they're up nine points against Arizona in that third quarter. I just don't know how I can get to seven and a half because the other element is what do we give Cincinnati for home field advantage because you know the average right now is about 1.9 well I can't give them 1.9 I that's a below average home field advantage for the bangles so if I'm only giving them around one point for home field advantage and by the way it's not like the Jags are going from some rockets home field advantage to the road where there's going to be sort of a second affectation on their part I cannot get to seven and a half right I can't even get to seven I'm in like that like I said five and a half six range so there to me is value here on the Jags now it's a total hold your nose type of situation but would you be that shocked if the Cincinnati Bengals now I know we're getting to sort of narrative and branding and that sort of thing. If they ended up being the victim to the Jaguars this year right like it just that's not that insane from a jag standpoint they're finally using Robinson in the running game it's like thanks for finally waking up to the fact that that guy is a quality player and they do have some talent on the outside so set can Cincinnati take advantage of the Jags pretty brutal offensive line like Arizona could right because they have a pretty good pass rush right like that at least sort of makes some sense right Houston you know they won for different reasons but like again that was the first game of the year for Lawrence and that offensive line right they didn't play that much in the pre season and so I just looking at this going like I can't get to seven and a half I think there's value here on the on the Jaguars and honestly I'd be very careful if you're looking to play them the Bengals in survivor like this kind of feels like money line potential because of the variants that both these teams provide right like they have pretty wide you know a wide array in their range right? We haven't seen it from the Jags but it doesn't mean it's not there. I got you, I got you and I'd feel a lot more comfortable taking the points for sure. So I'm totally with you there. And hey, I love the Tuesday pods I really do especially when we're doing a little bit of celebrating as we're doing this week. I know it's not always gonna be like this but as mentioned earlier, I'm gonna take it when I can get it and thanks again for joining us here Matt where can people find you on social media for more of the great info and insight that you always bring each and every week on this pod? Yeah thanks well at em Russ authentic m r u s s authentic on Twitter. Anything that I write over at the score is is there and of course you know we're tweeting out this podcast left right and center as well for you because you do a great job really proud of you know everything that's going on here for you man and and yeah, so check anything out that I wrote for the score hockey seasons coming up probably should mention that. Maybe maybe we don't necessarily talk a ton of hockey on this podcast. But certainly there's some people out there that are excited for hockey season. So check that out at Mrs. Authentic for all of your football and hockey needs. Oh yeah, that's probably because people don't want to just hear me just talk about leafs leafs leaves Austin Matthews leafs, leafs leafs all the time, but hey, yeah, let's work on that. We'll figure we'll
Sheldon:work through that part as well. Appreciate you coming on that. Happy to do about Thanks to Matt for coming back on the pod and blessing us with his picks and insight as always, but if you want to follow me online, he can do that on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. But for more, you got to check out DRF sports. This is a brand new project and just in case you're not familiar with the letters DRF daily racing form has been around for over 100 years, giving you all of the horse racing information, data and analysis, but now they're taking over the entire sports world. So if you want more coverage on football, and basketball, and MLB basically every single game in sports, you got to head to DRF comm slash sports for all of the details and insights. The site has all of the data on every single game, including offensive and defensive stats, betting angles, line movements, key injuries, head to head team records, and of course, the best team stats there are. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. So if you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. If you want access to the raw data, go to drf.com slash sports for again, the usual previews plus our deep dives into this podcast. However you want your betting information. We've got you covered. Thank you for tuning into this the DRF sports podcast. I'm your host Sean Alexander joining you every Tuesday and Friday, but for now, until next time, see.
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