On this episode, we recap a wild weekend of football including the Patriots near upset, QB injuries disrupting the betting market and Alabama & Georgia beginning to separate themselves from the rest of the NCAA Football field.
On this episode, we recap a wild weekend of football including the Patriots near upset, QB injuries disrupting the betting market and Alabama & Georgia beginning to separate themselves from the rest of the NCAA Football field.
Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready, set.
Sheldon:This is the DRF sports podcast. Make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sheldon Alexander. A reminder we do this twice a week. On Tuesdays we recap the week that was and on Fridays we make our pics and to be honest, I'm kind of thinking are we for real a month into the NFL season already. But yet here we are. Last week we broke pretty much even on the pod in terms of picks given out against the spread. But we also had some upsets like the jets and giants just to name a few. But as always, if you're wondering why I'm telling you to check out DRF comm slash sports, it's because that's where you can get all of the information that you need, because the site's got the details and insights, power trends, line movements, team stats, and even more betting angles, including our guy Scott Grambling, his weekly six pack in both the NFL and NCAA. So make sure you check it out. DRF comm slash sports, that's where you need to be every day for all of the usual previews. Plus we go in depth on this podcast, however you want your betting information. We've got you covered on today's show. I need some help from my guy, Matt in terms of getting over some of my picks this weekend where I went wrong, what we got right and how I'm going to get back on track for next week in week five. It's a Tuesday edition of the DRF sports podcast and it starts right now. Well, he's back yet again. And he saved my account this weekend with some great underdog picks. And of course, as always, there are some things that I didn't really listen on when well I learned but that's what makes this so much fun. The back and forth between us Mr. Matt Russell is back and we're a month into this NFL season. How are you feeling so far? My dude
Matt:a little a little groggy first and foremost another late night. Monday Night Football game last night it not because the game was thrilling or went to overtime. But because we had a lightning delay in a dome, so Okay, sure that doesn't make a ton of sense and listen, you know, you say I saved you, you know, you know here or there. Here's why you don't listen sometimes because sometimes I say things like Raiders plus three and a half now that line ends up closing it's three so we get a little closing line value. But there was a point before that game started as we were waiting for that game to start where I sat back and I realized to myself, you have bet on Jon Gruden and Derek Carr going up against Staley and Herbert and you know just fundamentally like we try not to get too wrapped up in who the quarterbacks are as the be all and end all and then to a lesser extent who the coaches are, but those two combinations man you know like a kid sitting there going like we are going to lose this bet right and for all the you know if everything that happens and you know 21 nothing start and like the Raiders you know it's la so the Raiders show up fashionably late to their own game, not really, you know the smartest move necessarily, but for all of that it's still 2114 with the Raiders having the ball and of course Jon Gruden decides you know what let's kick a field goal right let's turn a one possession game where we need a touchdown into a one possession game where we need a touchdown So listen, do we do stupid things? Yes Do I do stupid things? Absolutely. But I think the point you made there was he was little money line stuff because we ended up splitting you know the weekend from an ATM standpoint against the spread standpoint and right and everybody likes to hype the record we talked about the records you know, you know against the spread but like this is sports betting right, this isn't just sort of picks and record keeping and there's more than one way to do it right there's more than one way to salvage your weekend so I was gonna say like yeah, the money lines worked out to save us and get us up over you know, up into the green as they say and also the teases right teasers like yeah have to deploy those those worked really well again this week along with some props you know, like all of the other stuff that we do that you know, you can catch over at you know, at Mrs. Authentic on on my Twitter feed all of that stuff, right, like that's all part of the stew. So yeah, the ETS record was your five and five. That's not ideal, right? You know, fortunately, it was a three a two week for me in the contest. So that wasn't necessarily a disaster. But yeah, there's just a bunch of other ways to go about doing it and And luckily, it was actually a pretty good week from that standpoint.
Sheldon:Yeah, and you're totally right, because in a normal instance, I would come on and I'd be so rattled, because I gave away a week, a week three record of 10, and six to a week for record of six and 10. And normally, you'd see me on here, and I'm, like, all depressed and mad and frustrated, but, you know, figuring some different things out. We're still building and learning and acquiring information about certain teams as we continue to go forward with this season. And, hey, the money lines do help. I'll be honest, live pigs. And we will get to some of those pigs as this is a Tuesday pod where we recap the weekend that was in both College and the NFL. And I feel as if though, we need to discuss the Sunday night. You know, it was a Dells return. I don't know if you realize this, and it helps. Yes. Oh, wait, it wasn't a Delta turn? No, in fact,
Matt:from the other side? or going to the other side? I don't know. I haven't gotten into the into the liner notes on what Adele's doing? Yeah. So we should probably should probably talk about this for the next, you know, full week, right? Because we're gonna talk about a game in advance for a full week, we should probably talk about it after the fact for a full week. So yeah, listen, you know, it's funny, right? It's not a hard bet to make a few sort of, not to say, you know, what you're doing or whatever. But it's not a hard bet to make on the Patriots plus the seven points, right, like, whether it's from a valuation standpoint, where, you know, I could never get past like four and a half for that game. Or, you know, what, you watch some injuries pile up, both before the game, certainly, you know, Rob gronkowski, the defensive backfield for Tampa Bay as well. And so, you know, you just got to go like he and, you know, by the way, right, like, we always know, especially on the Sunday night or right once you know, there's some leverage on one side or another from a betting standpoint, we see the 95% of the money and the tickets, and all of that sort of thing. It's like, okay, like, I get why that's the case, I get why everybody's rolling in on it. But there's a very reasonable chance here that the Patriots cover this game. And if you can make that case, right, we had Bella check turning on the rain again, he did it right, we talked about it last week, he pulled it off, he's controlling the weather yet again, like the guy's amazing. But if you can make that case, right, like, and you're getting value, like you have to pull the trigger on that bet. Now you end up watching that game. Like just in a state of you know, I made the joke online, I was like a Duke basketball player, like in a defensive coach slapping the floor, the entire game, because it's like, I'm part of the team, like I'm trying to will them to a defensive stop on Brady. I'm trying to will them down the field as they as they nickel and diamond with with Mack Jones. And you know, it's not an easy thing to watch. And it's not. But that's the point, right? It's never supposed to be an easy, you know, easy, not the easiest, best, but like the best bets are never supposed to be easy, because you are getting a couple of points of value. There isn't some massive, you know, thing where it's like, well, the Patriots are actually better than the bucks. It's like, no, that's not the case. But you're if you're getting a couple points of value, then you know that it's going to be hanging around that point spread, right? We never know, are they gonna go for two? is Antonio brown gonna catch this ball for a touchdown? All of that sort of stuff. Right? And so I mean, that's all from the betting perspective, right? And I haven't even said the words necessarily, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. But, you know, what if we can't hype that, you know, we didn't really talk about the hype concept of the game last week, but if we can't hype that game, where somebody wins six Super Bowls, and is if a team for 20 years, and then goes away, and then comes back, you know, as a defending champion, like, what can we hide at that point, right? So like, I'm not beating people out. And the big thing was like, have you heard they're going up against each other? It's like, yeah, like, why are we talking about it? Like, this is what we do here, right? Like, are we gonna talk about Jacoby resets? returned to Miami or you know, like, you're facing off against this former cozy like, no, like, that's the dumb stuff, right? This is the actual good stuff. And so I thought the game was outstanding, you know, you get people needing like a 3536. You know, type score. I you know, I love that stuff, man, where every defensive possession, every score means something every time you get into field goal range, that means something and if, you know somebody fumbles the ball, while in field goal range, it feels like a catastrophe, because you're giving away those three points. Like that's football to me. And you know, I complain about the new era of football and having to adjust to, you know, first one to punt loses. But like, that was really fun, you know, throw a little rain into the mix. And, you know, that's, that's right where I want to be as far as watching the game is concerned. I agree.
Sheldon:And for football nerds, I think it was such an interesting like, chess match, right? Because columns were did a good job describing what Brady was seeing and how belcheck did a good job of display, hiding what the defense was going to do, where the blitzes were coming from, what kind of defenses they were in, it was so cool to watch and then even just the development of Mack Jones vinyle They realize hey we got to just spread them out let him do his thing let them cook essentially right and just like him yeah yeah and it was an interesting game to watch and then you mentioned the seven points right? We both were here saying seven points is a lot of points they almost won that game we're talking about let's talk about money line sprinkler. They should I can't say that should have won the game because you know it's fourth and three you can argue back and forth I personally was stunned that they went for the field goal there but I also understand and like yeah like he missed the field goal horribly like it went off the upgrade you know so yeah, that's that's why we're here it lived up to the hype came down to the wire and I will say I know you don't buy into this as much I'm the cliche guy here. Oh, but the football Gods we're not going to let Antonio brown catch that touchdown. It just wasn't gonna happen right if they're not this guy
Matt:yeah not this guy. Yeah not this guy not right here Not right now amazing game and we almost cash on the money line definitely cash on the plus seven but from some good quarterbacking to some not so good quarterbacking and I lost some bets on the weekend against the spread just Just follow me here for a second here. Last few bets against the spread on the Steelers because Big Ben looks a little more cooked. Then we give him credit for as the season goes along. Our guide Teddy to gloves goes down for the Broncos and they go down to the Ravens and then my guy with my squad the niners loser the Seahawks but that game you know it was a weird game and obviously the big news coming out of that is Jimmy g hurt again. It was Trey Lance time now a lot of QB issues for me this week just a lot of things going down but of those three things which one do you think will have the biggest impact from a gambling perspective going forward? Just market wise in terms of Big Ben being washed no Teddy to gloves for the Broncos or the trade Lance era?
Sheldon:Well it's funny right because we have a bronco Steelers game here coming down the pike and so you know how what do you make the number with Drew lock because he comes in and I always always always give the benefit of the doubt to the quarterback that has to come in halfway through the game right? He does not get yeah cuz he doesn't get the week you know the reps that week and so yeah you know a lot of the time like we saw it with Jacoby brissette before this past week we saw that when he had to come in against the bills and it's like just jointed we talked with the left handed right handed thing and how the offense has to you know almost flip from a mirror standpoint and but at least they get a week's worth of practice to sort of you know adjust instead of him just getting thrown in there and being like hey you know you were throwing off to the side with you know some of the practice squad guys all week well now you're going up against the Buffalo Bills so it's the same kind of deal so you know, listen and drew Locke is an easy punching bag right like he's just a guy that like we like to kind of make fun of because he's kind of a goofy dude and so that being said, it's like okay, well if he ends up starting we don't necessarily know this right because Teddy Bridgewater is you know in concussion protocol What does that necessarily mean right? We never know whether that means like three weeks or you know, three hours when it comes to the NFL so in general like I don't want to overreact to too much and maybe Bridgewater ends up playing the Ben Roethlisberger thing is fascinating because like every week he's just more disappointed too. Right like we just feel like well maybe and then and right like we took the points with Pittsburgh, and like I think that wins a lot of the time. I mean, it was just a 10 point game when we're talking about getting six and a half or seven points depending on where your buy point was that week. And you know, listen, what should have would have could have been one of the great plays of the year was the field goal block in return for a touchdown and that's a 10 point swing right there right but they time it too well because you know we got old guys referee in these games and like their vision not necessarily up to snuff where we've got like you know half of the Steelers you know field goal block team jumping right at the moment that the football moves for the Green Bay long snapper right and then a court but of course we you know, because we can't have nice things you know, the referee throws the flag that had to have been offside because nobody blocks a field goal like that and it's like well if they do if they time it perfectly so I know I kind of got off track when it came to the quarterback thing, but I just wanted to let you know you know, mentioned that because it's like, they had all kinds of opportunities to cover that game even before getting to the whole Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense just being flat out broken, right where you're throwing the ball on fourth down, two yards down the field, like it's infuriating, and the times that they do throw it down the field, right, like they're just a little bit off kilter as far as the timing and stuff is concerned. So it isn't just that Ben is like washed because he is getting the ball down the field on a couple of shots. Yeah, it's just kind of messed up right? Like the timing and like Juju Smith Schuster is not cutting just enough to the inside and, and all of that stuff is going down, right? You're going up, listen, there's no run game to speak of, and all of that, right? So like, from an adjustment standpoint, like, we're just going to consistently adjust the Steelers downwards. And we probably have waited too long to do it as much as we should, right? Because we keep having that belief that like the defense will carry the day. Or maybe they'll get a run game going so at some point or something along those lines, right. But the big one, right is the tre Lance situation. And yeah, we've heard now like Jimmy G, maybe it's not that bad, and maybe he could even play this week and like there's all kinds of chaos. I like the 40 Niners this week against the Cardinals that is just my sort of like sicko, you know, life of living, you know, betting against the NFL where it's like you have to kind of Georgia stanzaic right, where you have to just kind of do the opposite of what you think you should be doing. And so yeah, like, I can be really snippy sometimes I don't know if people know that out there. And I can come in and be like whoa 40 Niners fans like how's that tre Lance life going? As he's just like zipping balls like, you know, Jimmy g was zipping balls a yard over people's heads, freelances saving balls for yards over people's heads. And you know, they make that they make the connection on the broken coverage, but like, I'm pretty sure you or I could come in and make that throw for the 70 yard touchdown to debo Samuel. So you know, not going to give him necessarily a ton of credit for that. But what happens here is at least they get practice this week, and they can go and they can put in all of the stuff that Trey Lance does best, right. And maybe that's bad for the wide receivers from a fantasy football standpoint for the 40 Niners because the ground game becomes way more critical here against the Arizona Cardinals will obviously come off to a really great win. And so that's an automatic thing where you go Okay, buy low, sell high, buy low on San Francisco or sell high on the Arizona Cardinals so we'll see if this number gets up to like a full six or something along those lines. Because you know, San Francisco is going to be at least competitive in this game and they have a week two how to install the train Lance stuff and just go train Lance often so it actually might be a negative if Jimmy G is not even necessarily ready to go but like gametime decision like how much reps you know, does he take away from train Lance this week, in practice, like I don't want that I want 100% of first team reps to go to Trey Lance and let's get him comfortable. Let's get the plays in there that he's comfortable with the throws that he's comfortable with. And then obviously a lot more run plays for him as well and off of what he does well, so that one's the big one as far as an adjustment because listen, there's no way the Cardinals should be, you know, five and a half, six point favorites, even at home against San Francisco, right? Like that's just not a thing that should exist. So I think from an overreaction standpoint, that's the game that we want to focus on. Maybe zigging when a lot of people are zagging based on a half you know, watching watching trailers for a half. I like it speaking of the zigging and zagging though, there were a lot of zigging and zagging this weekend in terms of the New York football teams because I don't think a lot of people were riding with the New York football teams but we hands Our hands are raised here if you had both the jets and the giants and when was the last time that happened? Like seriously think about that for a second right? Like I'm sure
Matt:but like it didn't go well like I'm probably I've probably effort in this sort of thing before and it just went incredibly poorly and for a while there I thought it was gonna go really poorly again right I'm watching the Jets game and like I'm the one who's got the Jets game on the main screen along with all the other screens and I have a second you know it's I think it's my third screen dedicated entirely to the giants and I'm just sort of sitting there going back and forth going like what kind of life is this kind of life is to leave because every time the Jets do something well like there was a part of the play that did not go well at all and for the first half right and you're just going like this Tennessee Titans team again no fault of their own if you will right because obviously the offense was compromised you know the defense is entirely their fault but um you know they're they're hanging in this game and you're just going like if it was any competent team the Jets would run away with this game and they end up taking the seven point lead late and you know they there's a fourth down breakup and and here comes the flag and that keeps the drive alive. And it's just like the mother of all sweats right and meanwhile like the giants like they can't decide what to do on fourth down they're kicking field goals and they're missing 36 yarders after not going forward on fourth and one or fourth and two and you're just kind of like okay like the coaching is going to screw this up like I don't you know the Jets coaching is it's certainly suspect, but the players are also you know, pretty, you know, green if you will pardon the pun, but the Giants right like the players are actually pretty good. Yeah, like Daniel Jones doesn't stink. Right It's just putting him in a position to succeed and like is Jason Garrett doing that is Joe judge doing that are they making you know positive expected value decisions out there and the answer is by and large no but like they're pulling off plays right say Quan Barkley like a deep touchdown and like it's all right there for the taking right that's it and when we're when we're talking about upsets of the week and like you know our red light special right we're looking for teams who are right right there right for a loss almost more than the team who is like going to do anything special from a you know, a rating standpoint right? Like we figured the Jets are going to play to the top end of their rating. We figured the giants were going to do the same because for whatever reason the Giants always do that on the road or frequently do that. So on the road, right? And then it's like okay, well that's great, they're gonna play better, but like are the is the other team going to play down to the bottom edge of their rating and like we kind of could figure out why Tennessee was going to we saw the market move massively indirect in that direction, as we talked about on Friday. But Same thing with the giants in the same three go case or the saints the saints need to sort of cooperate here by not playing particularly well right? It's like Kamara, you're always worried about him but if you can focus on him like you're forcing jameis Winston to beat you and you're forced to taysom Hill to do things and as long as none of those things sort of happen drastically both teams are going to be in that game and then it's just a matter of our boy jabril peppers winning the coin toss highlight absolutely watch that clip like you know run that clip because it's not because it's not family friendly. But he wins the coin toss and it's outstanding. And and yeah, like and you just sit there you go Wait, hold on a second. This worked. jets and giants like yeah, who would have thought you know, look it up. Here we are. And so like that was really outstanding, but again, it's more you know, it's sort of like 6040 on like, who are the teams that want to fade this week? And can that other team like walk in to that opportunity right? Can they pick up that opportunity and take advantage of it and who knew right like the Jetsons giants could both do it
Sheldon:I just want to emphasize the point two because people might not realize how big survivor pools are and the the great call of last week of just avoid the Titans in survivor right because I know it comes down to wins and losses but sometimes like you know when it's that close, right do you want to be in that next like I was chilling sitting back with the bills and chiefs right? To survivor teams sitting back chillin just like Oh, very glad I did not take the Titans cuz I'd be cheesed watching that game. And Tannahill get sacked out of field goal range yet again.
Matt:When we talked about it right we talked about it with the Bengals in the Bengals are the same case and it's like for me I'm like do you want to take the Bengals before they've proven anything right do you want to take the Titans when they're not at their best and I know that they're playing the Jets or whatever but like and that might be the best time to use them right and I still would argue like I don't know that there's ever a good time to use the Bengals but again, if they end up being good enough to be in a top top 20 team then I'll find another spot to use them you know and maybe that's at the end of the season where they're still really trying week 17 or 18 but as far as the Titans are concerned like I get okay they're playing the Jets but they're also going on the road and they are handicapped from their from you know from an injury standpoint and like why would you want the not best version of that team right so why I've stayed away from the Packers using the packer so far and like they still won the games right? They beat the lions and all that sort of thing but like if I don't know that your offensive line is going to be able to protect now the Packers have done a great job as far as protecting but like if I don't know that this part of your team is fully you know capable right now. I mean you look at the Bucs going forward with the injuries to their defensive backfield. It's like do I want to trust the Bucs this week for example against Miami now you can look at Miami and be like that team stinks like Jacoby percent and like all of that sort of thing. And like that all makes sense. But like if it's just a bunch of backups back there with Winfield out and Carlton Davis probably over a really long time and you already had a couple of guys missing and it's like Richard Sherman's off the street and some other guys now probably going to come out have to come off the street and you're just like that's not the books that I want to be backing like I know it's the dolphins and I know they're at home and all that sort of thing but like that's not the version of this team that I want to be backing I rather take them against a better team later on in the season when Ron Rob gronkowski is back when the defensive backfield you know figured out from an injury standpoint. So like it's just not as simple as looking at the logo and being like Titans better than jets like let's just take Titans or Bengals better than Jaguars let's just take bangles here, like make these teams prove to you that they are worth using in survivor. And you know, don't just get sort of blindly, you know, locked in on the sort of branding issues of the teams that you were both backing and the teams that you were fading as well.
Sheldon:And another example of things might not always be as easy as it's Let's get to some of our big thoughts for betting and handicapping. Right and the cards had a pretty big win over the Rams this weekend, right? They won pretty comfortably. Now when you think of narratives, Arizona came in their own four against McVeigh that's over. The cards are now top five team in both offense and defense. So I'm gonna ask you this question. How do you have the NFC West ranked right now at this moment, after the cards big win?
Matt:Yeah. And it's funny, right? Like I had I write a column every week for the score about how, you know how my ratings change, right? And how to evaluate, you know, x team off of, you know, Sunday's results. And do we move them up? Do we move them down? Do we not move them at all? Because again, fundamentally, it's one game and we're getting to NBA and NHL season right? where it's like, I'm gonna tweet this out, you can lock this in right? schedule the tweet right now for after four games in the NBA season, right? Because what I do is I say, Hey, would you evaluate this team? Pick a team Lakers Raptors heat? would you would you evaluate this team after four games as strictly and maniacally as we value and evaluate these football teams after four games, right? We talked about how they feels like they play the game over and over and over again throughout the week, right? Like, that's how insanely we sort of look at this. And so from a Rams Cardinals standpoint, listen, that line closes, you know, certainly we talked about how it started at six, obviously, that was nuts. And then it goes down to four and a half. And that closed four, or even three and a half in some spots, right? So obviously, I tend to short money on the Cardinals, we were on the Cardinals, we hit the money line on the Cardinals, that was one of them, that we that we got this past weekend. And so it but the point is is like it wasn't such a lock that the Cardinals were going to win that game where they were favored. And if you played that game tomorrow in Los Angeles, do you think the Cardinals would be favored in that game? No, because they're starting from scratch again, right? 00? And so how do we evaluate that going forward? Well, we have to look at, you know, the box score, and what happened in the game, and all of those and all of that sort of thing. So people asked me for my ratings, specifically, like one through 32. And I'm the fool who goes and gives them that right? And so I put that out there. And of course, all I take is heat because you know, who knows, maybe somebody's favorite team isn't ranked high enough or, or you know, bah, blah, blah, blah, like, switch the order of the games, right? If the Cardinals would beat the Rams, and then the Rams had beaten the Bucs, people would still be pretty high on the Rams, right? But because of those things happened in a different order of operations. All of a sudden, it's like, well look out here come the Cardinals, same sort of deal, right? If they lost to the Vikings, or if that game gets played, and the Vikings kicker makes the kick against the Cardinals. And now they're not the last undefeated team, right? We don't think as highly but we get like so locked in on records, right? Well, listen, the Raiders are three and oh, coming into that game against the Chargers yesterday. And you know, the Chargers were two in one. So if we're just going off of records, then we absolutely should have, you know, bet the Raiders and have expected the Raiders to win. So the point is, is like even though that game happened going forward, if they play that game, again, it's going to be the same, it's going to be the same or close to it spread, maybe it's three instead of three and a half or something along those lines. But look at this, the NFC West odds to win that division right now are basically a dead heat between the Cardinals and the Rams. And the Cardinals have an extra game and the Cardinals have a tiebreaker right now, but we're still not ready to fully favor the Cardinals in that division over the Rams because the market realizes it was just one game, right? And we go into the box score and we look at we go okay, well, how did the teams do? Well, the Rams turned the ball over twice. And Arizona didn't. Okay. And so if we're talking about a two score, you know, three score type of a game. If one team is turning the ball over twice, and the other team isn't? That's going to be a pretty big deal, right? Like we can all if you if we could just go back in time. And you could tell me that the Rams were going to turn it over twice. And the Cardinals weren't. I'd be like, Okay, now we're gonna really go nuts on bet on the Cardinals, right? Like, and again, I bet the Cardinals you don't have to sell me on how good the Cardinals are relative to the Rams. But we don't get to know that right? And listen, there's a world when the cart where the Cardinals turn the ball over twice, and the Rams don't turn the ball over. And I can tell you that the score would be considerably different. If that was the case. Then we get into yards per play, okay, fundamentally on a per play basis. How did each team do offensively defensively, it was data even it was 6.3 for the Rams to 6.2 for the Cardinals. Now the Rams got a little boost at the end with a garbage time drive. And I understand that so maybe it's a little bit lower. Maybe it's a 6.2 to 6.0 something along those lines. But the point is is like it's not like the Cardinals defense just stood up any more than the Rams defense did because they both gave up six yards per play. Right? And it's not like the offenses were you know, any different really, right. It's just the Cardinals converted whereas the Rams turn the ball over whether it was on fourth down or interceptions or whatever. So when we look forward to the next game between these two teams or any game going forward, these are the things that we have to evaluate in the box where because any idiot and I promise you there are a ton of them who just look at the score and and just what happened this week and they make bets off of that. Right so they immediately are going to bat going to go to bat for the Cardinals this week, they are going to fade the Rams this week on Thursday Night Football. Same thing with patriots and the Bucs, right. And so that's just how you know, the meme. Like this is how we win, right? Like this is how we went by getting a little bit deeper and seeing what really happened in these games to try to come up with something predictive going forward.
Sheldon:I was gonna say, I'm a fan of the wire and one of the famous lines is the game is the game. Right? And that's what that's one of the things where once you pick up and you realize certain things you just like oh, okay, I see what's going on. Right? I got you I got you. One of our other seasonal themes that I like to bring up every week on this pod with you is the teams that no one wants one week and then likes the next and what are the teams that everyone wants one week and no one likes the next and he kind of touched on one of those teams just now but elaborate a little for me like which team are you highlighting here? Yeah, and
Matt:listen, it's gonna be absolutely disgusting and we're gonna wait for as long as we possibly can before we make this bet. Okay. But the New England Patriots right and this is just fundamental handicapping in the NFL like this is like if you just didn't know anything about you know, football or the teams or anything like that. And you just looked at the market reactions. And this is a perfect example of what we talked about right? If you go from a home underdog, right and think about what a home underdog means it means that despite the fact that you are playing at home, the market does not think you are going to win from a win probability standpoint. Right? Like they are convinced that the road team is so much better than you that they are going to win this game. Yeah, and then if you so if you're a home underdog the way the Patriots are, and then you go on the road, right? Yeah, and now you are a road favorites, ie you become the team that just absolutely can't lose in this situation. Right? And and six days have gone by from where you could absolutely not win this game to now you can absolutely not lose this game. Like that's a pretty wide gap in sort of potential results. Right? Like that means that like Tim and wasn't they probably are, but like, that means like Tampa Bay is like 25 points better than the Houston Texans, right? Like, and it's just like, this is the NFL like this is, um, you know, these are all professionals, right? Like we saw, you know, I keep referring back to the Buccaneers Falcons game where you're sitting there going like the Falcons stink, right? Like there is nothing to say that the Falcons do not stink. And that's a three point game in Tampa Bay at the start of the fourth quarter, a few weeks back, right. And that's again, why we can sort of, you know, base ourselves in some logic here, when we back a team like the Patriots at home that nobody wants anything to do with. Now they traveled to Houston and remember we talked about the Ravens game last last year, the Sunday night or Bell chicks controlling the weather, they managed to pull off the victory. Nobody can believe it. Nobody wanted anything to do with the Patriots. And who did they go on the road to the very next week? the Houston Texans like it's the exact same scheduling spot here. The only difference is this. Shawn Watson's not walking through that door. I mean, he might be walking through that door, but they're not letting him put pads on. They're not letting to go to the football field. They're not letting him in front of cameras. They are hiding him in the closet somewhere and he is not coming out. So we look at this and we go okay, but does that mean we have to bet on the Texans? And the answer is like Yeah, man, like, it kinda is right. Like that's the thing like it's just fundamental NFL betting. Now again, we're not putting our bankroll on it, this isn't a 10x Super banger, like whale play, whatever. These are just bats, you know, these are just bets that accumulate over the course of the season, right? And some are gonna win, and some are gonna lose. But from a value standpoint, right? All we're seeing out because we talked about teaser protection, this game isn't going to be minus seven, where you can tease the Patriots down to minus one, it's going to start at nine. So that if you want to do a six point teaser, like you still have to give up the three points to the Texans here. So it's going to start at nine, well, people are gonna see nine and they're going to be like, well, it's not 10. And so they are going to bet it. And so this number is probably going to get to 10, at which point it becomes a definitive bet. And here's the other thing if it doesn't get to 10 right, that means there's been some resistance in the marketplace. And so what's the point spread is made for any game like remind yourself any points that you think is suspect, just remind yourself after a week of betting on this, right where anybody could come in and the limits get moved up. After a week of betting. Everybody it just landed on you know the concept of 5050 right like, you know, this could end up 10 this could stay At night It could even drop down to seven and a half but the point is is the point spreads there because it's 5050 then it could go either way otherwise we'd all be retired by now because we would hit the obvious side the obvious side would win and then that would be it right and so even something that doesn't look obvious or looks obvious in the favor of the Patriots, you have to remind yourself like if it were so obvious and everybody bet it and everybody won like this whole operation here would be a lot easier so it's super gross but like that's the best example we're gonna have for a really long time here right a team that was a seven point home underdog now going on the road as a nine maybe more point favorite on the road like that's craziness like again not comfortable because Davis mills in the rain was you know the worst thing we've seen in the rain you know ever it's so like you know just unfortunately like that's that's that's life we live and you can get into the whole concept of you know patriots letdown game and all of that sort of thing as well but yeah, just from a market standpoint if you nothing else these things right backing teams that go from home underdogs road favorite is an incredibly profitable system
Sheldon:there's a Davis Mills Missy Elliott I can't stand the rain reference that I could make but I'm not going to but I get your point and I'm just gonna continue to move on.
Matt:Yeah, we have never nor will we ever refer to Davis Mills as Supa dupa fly
Sheldon:well played so we'll talk about some bad beats was there a bad beat this week that kind of stood out to you more than the others when you look at the Sunday scan
Matt:yeah this one is like way deep in the under the radar here ah Falcons Washington like Falcons plus one and a half that line moved up to to buy clothes that was a bad beat like it not something that people were up in arms with I don't know that that many people necessarily even bet that game because yes, the Falcons and the Washington football team but the Washington football team like they're doing the thing where they move the ball into field goal range they are down to points and all they need is the field goal to win the game and you'd go okay like you know we're talking about Taylor hi Nikki like let's just get the ball into field goal range kick the field goal and like it would suck if you had the Falcons money line but Falcons plus one and a half in a pretty safe space and he's running around and he rolls out to the left and you're just sort of going like alright man just take a few yards and slide or like let's get out of balance here stop the clock like let's just work the clock down and like do the thing which I felt like it used to happen all the time where the coaches would be like hey we're gonna work the clock down and then we're gonna kick a field goal and then we're gonna win the game and I don't know that that wasn't even the plan right i think i still think that was the plan but he turns and he sees jd mckissic on the far side and he just goes you know what he's wide open way over there and he throws it over there and you still if you're a Falcons backer are feeling pretty good that he's going to get tackled here with 35 yards of green grass if you will in the way and like he does the dive to the pylon and like gets it you know barely gets in and you're sitting there going like Falcons plus one and a half was like really good like we we had it all we had it all planned out right we're gonna do it get it down kick the field goal move on with our lives and know right and now it's okay there's two point conversions and Matt Ryan's got the ball back and like listen, it's Matt Ryan without you know, much in the way of timeouts. I think he might have had one timeout. But you Okay, like, you can now lose the ballgame here Washington, right? Like the best chance there when probability is basically 100%. If he gets knocked out of bounds at the one yard line, yeah, right. You take a knee, you kick the field goal, and we move again, we move on with our lives. And so it's one of those where they review it. And like the Falcons are, in theory, not wanting him to score but like Washington also shouldn't have wanted him to score. Right. But he scores anyway. And so for me, that was a bad beat that wasn't like, you know, people were flying all over the all over the internet, you know, going nuts about and it was necessarily a bad beat. But like, I think it's worth mentioning just before we kind of move on here, but like the lions and bears, you know, we were on the lions plus three. And like, I think there's a ton of different times that that game gets played where the lions cover, and even potentially win that game outright. I mean, how many times do you need to be in a goal to go situation, Jared Goff before you actually score a touchdown, because our guy was goal to go three times three times in the first half. And you and I talk about all the time like game script, right? And if something goes a certain way, drastically, one way or another in the first quarter or the second quarter, it affects what happens the rest of the way. We got three examples of the lions here not scoring when they're first in gold to go. And, and literally zero points. Like we're not talking Oh, they settled for a field goal and they're at the seven or anything like that, like and not even like really strong defensive plays like Jared Goff like basically, you know, the fumble that gets booted directly to the bears, and you're sitting there going like they're really moving the ball, right? It's the yards per play concept, right? Where they are moving the ball down the field. So the idea that the bears defense is just too much for the lions is absolutely not the case. Right? So they move the ball three times down the field to get, you know, decent, great scoring opportunity. Then they score 17 points, right? And then late in the game, they've got a fourth in one and a wide open receiver that golf misses. Now in that case, you go like, well, Jared Goff stinks and like blah, blah, blah, but like, it's not a difficult throw to make. So they have four different instances where they are inside the tenant score zero points, and they score 17 actual points. Yeah. And you just go like, how many points would they normally have scored? Right? Again, we replay this game over and over and over again, and they get these opportunities like, that's, you know, it's pretty fair to say that they would score 13 more points, right? Like that's very conservative that like, of those four chances, one of them's a touchdown. Two of them are field goals. And one is like we're Jared Goff gets a snap stuck in his mask, and somebody like comes and picks it up off of his face. And like, we're even building in stupidity for the lions in that, like, really conservative estimate. And so like, if they score 30, against the bears, like I think we're all impressed, right? Whether they win or lose, I think we're really impressed with how they play. So they blow it right, like they screw that up. And so well, it's not necessarily a bad beat, right? I think that's a game that like, if they were playing that again this week, and we were getting plus three with the lions, I'm probably betting it again. So I'm not going to beat myself up about losing that game, which is, you know, you know, is what it is, I suppose.
Sheldon:No, I got your man and you know, we just talked a lot about the NFL and what just happened and also gave a little bit of a sneak preview towards what's going to happen in week five, talked a lot about different lines, which comes with a reminder for me anyways, as I always like to try to do remind the people, there will be a lot more line movements in the best way for you to keep up with that is to head to DRF comm slash sports for all the details and insights. And the site, you know, has all of the data for every game, including offensive and defensive stats, different betting angles, line movements, key injuries, head to head matchups and team stats, you want to keep up with the line movements, though, because that, that switches throughout the week, as the bigger money starts to come in. As the week goes along, lines start to change. Maybe your opinion starts to change as you see certain things happening within the market. Bottom line DRF comm slash sports is where you need to go to stay up to date. But as you stay up to date with this pod, we're going to switch over to some college football action. And it was a massive week in college football. And you know, our Hurry up offense did all right. We were okay, we're still cooking at 60% for the season, we'll take that, obviously. But which game stood out to you the most from a massive weekend in college football, including some big wins from some of the big boys.
Matt:Yeah, and it's a two horse race, right? We started at the top at the start of this year going okay, there's five teams for four spots. And like there's still four spots. But there's only two teams, right? Like they're sitting there. And it's like, you know, you're going to meet your buddies for dinner drinks or whatever. And like you get there. And maybe the guy that you don't necessarily like all that much is, you know, he's there early, because he's fired up because he's buddies, you know, better friends with the other two guys. And you just thought everybody was meeting at nine o'clock. And now you're both sitting at the table and you're both getting texts from the other two guys. And like one guy's caught up in traffic, and the other guy has kids and you know, that's just going to be a disaster. Like, we might not even see him tonight. And like that whole scene is happening. And you're just sitting there like, you know, there's two tables, or two seats open at the table and you're just kind of like looking at the other guy. You're going like so. How's how's things How's work? Where do you work now? Like you don't even really know him that well. And yeah, you're just like not that's like that you did not sign up for just the two of you to be at dinner. Georgia and Alabama? Are those two teams, right? Like That is what they're doing. They're sitting at the table like they're ordering drinks, you know, they're getting some appetizers like do you like you know, to try to figure out what each other likes it like you like, you know, cheese sticks, like, oh, like a jalapeno popper? Is that is that really your move? And so like they're sitting there and it's just like Ole Miss comes to town. And it's like See you later, like undefeated Matt crowl it's like boom, gone. Arkansas comes to town for Georgia. And it's like they're out of here like just tossed aside, right, we talked about like the clunking heads together type thing. And they just run it over each other. And so like, these two teams are going to meet in the sec title game, and one of them's going to win, and they're going to shake hands and they are going to say see you in January, because they are then going to meet again in the college football playoff and probably the final. Right and, and here's my take on this. And listen plenty of time for me, for me to make this bet and certainly I'm not necessarily saying for the championship. I think Georgia is going to beat Alabama. I think Georgia is going Want to beat Alabama in the sec title game? And if they don't, I think they're going to do so in the national championship game. And a lot of it stems from the idea that this Georgia, everybody but the quarterback is awesome on Georgia right? Like everybody on like just put like if the jets and giants hadn't won, we'd be looking to replace the Jets or the Giants with basically all of Georgia's offense and defensive line. And I'm not sure there's a ton of NFL coaches that would be against that, right. Like they might trade their entire trench units for what's going on over at Georgia right now because you knew five seconds into that game. Well, maybe more probably five minutes that Arkansas was in really big trouble, right. And fortunately for us, we were on top of the Alabama situation where we knew that like Lane Kiffin coming to town and the big scary offense wasn't necessarily going to fly against the Crimson Tide. I wish I felt the same way about Georgia but because the quarterback situation is so dicey where JT Daniels is in and out. And you know, like, it's you're just not confident that they can throw the football they might not have to. And we saw Florida run all over Alabama. And so it's not like any team can do it. This isn't the NFL where you're wondering why the Eagles didn't run the football more against the Chiefs because everybody can run the football against the chiefs. This is if you have really really good players, you can run the football against Alabama and Florida has those players and Georgia absolutely has those players so that's probably going to end up being an ugly game. But moreover, like I don't I'm not loving what I'm seeing from Bryce young like I'm not afraid of Bryce young. I'm afraid of everybody Bryce young throws the football to or hands the football to when it comes to Alabama. But Georgia is the team that can match up with those guys. Right? So it looks like Florida is out class athletically in the first half against Alabama. They tighten things up and they get it you know, a tighter game in that second half. I don't think it's ever gonna come to that where Alabama's just gonna be blowing out Georgia right. So I think that game when it when it happens, again, a little far down the line here. But that's just the conclusion that I've come to watching both of these teams that the adults on Georgia are absolutely capable of running with the Crimson Tide. So yeah, to to horse race. They're waiting for dinner. They're just trying to figure out, are our friends going to show up? Do we have to call somebody else here? Are we going to have to you know, maybe there's some ladies at the bar that we need to talk to? Like they're looking to make alternative plans here. We just don't know who these other two teams are going to be just yet.
Sheldon:Well, maybe one conference that wishes they were maybe a little more in the mix as a PAC 12 some interesting action there in the PAC 12. I know UCLA has been I keep bringing this up every week. I feel like every week we talk about I'm always like, ah, UCLA has been a talking point for you. I feel like the whole season. But just in terms of the PAC 12. In general. UCLA goes down to Arizona State. Was that the biggest thing? Or was there something else going on in the PAC 12? as well?
Matt:Yeah, yeah. very sly way to ask that question. And then UCLA, like they go and you know, it's Chip Kelly, and it's LA and like, you want them to be good, right? You want it so badly. To be good. Maybe USC ends up being good. And maybe they're both good, and it's all relevant and all that sort of thing. And then UCLA gets knocked off by Fresno State. And then we get this game. We talked about it and you've talked about a couple of different times, right? The Arizona State UCLA game, we're going to figure out who's who and what's what, in the PAC 12. South. And we did, right and we talked about it and we had Arizona State, you know, on the podcast on Friday, Arizona State cleans out UCLA and we see what Arizona State is capable of and it makes their loss to BYU. That same night as you know, Fresno State, UCLA, it makes that much more frustrating. Because you Okay, like the talent is there. And like, if they could just, you know what I mean? Like, if they could just do it, they've got the claws, they've got these fangs. And if they could get it's a bunny, and like, the whole thing, and so you just go like, just don't screw it up. And that's the entire Pac 12 because, like you said, the big story really, because that UCLA and Arizona State wasn't quite the game we had hoped it was going to be because those two teams had lost Oregon, right? Oregon loses to Stanford, and it's again, like we're barely into October. And already everybody on the PAC 12 has a loss. And like that's just it, right? Like anybody relevant I should say, at least has a loss. And so you go, like you lost to Stanford and listen, I you know, we had Stanford in the in the Hurry up on offense. I did a little money line dabbling on Stanford as well. So listen, I'm sitting there cheering for it. And there's some sketchy calls at the end and all that sort of thing, unless that's great. But like the PAC 12, he said, like they're just trying to be relevant. It's like they just can't do it like they're already out. By and large now Arizona State right with that win over UCLA, and with obviously a full Pac 12 schedule and a potential match with Oregon. In the final if Oregon even gets there. And at this point, if they're losing Stanford who knows if they're even going even going to get there, but at least they have something of a path to maybe steal a seat in the playoff, but like it Again, like we talked about before the season, it's not really gonna matter, right? Because even if they do, they're going to be three touchdown underdogs to Alabama, and then three touchdown underdogs to Georgia if they even beat Alabama, which they are probably not going to. And so again, the PAC 12 just sits there, right? Like they can't have nice things, they are going to drop the vaes on the floor, and it's going to break into 1000 pieces. And that happened this weekend in the PAC 12. But they still exist, right? So there's still games and they're still you know, there they are, they are right for upsets. And that's why we like the PAC 12. Because you can call moneyline upsets like Stanford over Oregon, and obviously, to a lesser extent Arizona State against UCLA. Because every team is so unpredictable, the predictable unpredictability of the of the PAC 12 is so great, that that's why we keep coming back to you, Pac 12. That's why we keep coming back.
Sheldon:So you're talking about paths to the college football playoffs? Right? Yeah, there's about what 12 teams that are kind of in the mix, but a big game this week, the Red River rivalry? Yeah. How does that play into all of this?
Matt:It's when you mentioned the dozen teams, right? And you're sitting there and you're like, it's October 4, or whatever, right? You're like this first week of October, and then you're down to 12. teams like, yeah, that's how for one college football works. And for two, how it works this season where we've seen a bunch of losses, right? And none of those 12 teams are Clemson, by the way, which like, if you told me that, I'd have been like, what are you nuts? Yeah, we're down to 12 teams that if you go and you say, Okay, well, this team goes undefeated. Again, it has nothing to do with the likelihood of those teams going undefeated. But if you said, Okay, if this team goes undefeated, they at least have a path with some help, and other teams losing and all that sort of thing. They at least have a path to one of those four seats at the table. And so there's a bunch of really good games this weekend. And first and foremost is the Red River rivalry, right? We've got Texas and Oklahoma here. And both of them have a path right, Texas has that loss to Arkansas. And up until last week, that was looking like a really good loss. Now it's just sort of a medium sized loss. But if they can beat Oklahoma this week, and then they can run the table in the big 12 and they can maybe beat Oklahoma again in the big 12 championship. You know people love Texas, right? They love the Longhorns. They want the Longhorns to be good right this is in the UCLA USC category of like life is just better when this team is good in college football. And I'm really excited for this game cuz it hasn't been that for a really long time because a lot of times Texas will have lost a game early on the season. And you know, they did this year, but like it's often to a team that isn't very good at all right? There were some Maryland losses in there again, you know, and under the Tom Herman, you know, regime. And so now we get this and it's a three point spread here and like the game could go either way and Oklahoma's look, you know, they've won enough games, but they haven't looked great in Texas. Like they finally figured out the quarterback situation, you and I talked about Casey Thompson, why is he not in guess what he has been in for the last couple of weeks, and they know through 70 points down two weeks ago, and then won relatively comfortably against TCU. This past week in a game that in a lot of years, they will trip up before the Red River rivalry. And so I'm really fired up, you're gonna get boy Gus Johnson in this game, he's going to be just yelling, big 12 football, and like, it's gonna be fantastic. So that game I'm really excited for but these are two of the 12 teams that have a path to the championship here and one of them is going to stay on that path with the wind, and the other one is going to be on the outside looking in.
Sheldon:I love it. And another race that we've been keeping an eye on is the Heisman watch. Who's the front runner now in this crazy race to win the Heisman Trophy? Yeah, it's
Matt:one of your I look at the odds. And it's still corral and young. And like, I don't know how closely you watch that game. But like, we're gonna give the Heisman to Matt corral after he does virtually nothing for three quarters against Alabama. And like, that's a showcase. Now, I know, he was, you know, they were beat up on Louisville on that Monday night game, the first, you know, the very first week of the season. Like, I don't know that we're going to see Ole Miss again, in a sort of feature presentation type of a thing, right? And so I'm looking at crowd I'm like, I just don't see, you know, if somebody has to be the favorite, somebody has to be the front runner. And in this case, like corral and young are still there. And we've talked about young like, I don't know how at this point, you just give him the Heisman because he's got this best skill position players of everybody right? And I don't mean to sort of smirk his good name here, but it's not like, you know, listen, we saw it with Matt Jones last year, they eventually just gave the award to devante Smith. And it's like, Yeah, because the skill position players are so good. So I just think there's opportunity here where somebody is going to pop up and you know, we talked we've talked about Desmond Ritter and like, obviously, the Cincinnati victory against Notre Dame like that helped his cause a lot. You know, it would have been great if he had five touchdowns or something like that. But if you can go and have an interview before the game, and say I'm gonna we're gonna silence seven Bend right we're gonna go to Notre Dame and undefeated Notre Dame again debatable on how good that team necessarily is. But like if you say that in ahead of time, and then do it where he is literally running into the end zone and throwing up the szasz on Notre Dame like, isn't that the Heisman moment? so far? They can see the ESPN montage right now. Yeah, like I mean, he's he was this close to doing the Heisman pose. Now, maybe that comes over the next few weeks, right? Because now he goes into conference play. They did what they we asked them to do. They went on the road to beat Indiana. They went on the road and beat Notre Dame. And now it's just a matter of, Okay, can you go undefeated? So speaking of, you know, the place at the table, that's going to be a situation where Alabama and Georgia and like, they both know, Cincinnati, but they weren't invited to dinner. It just happened to be in the neighborhood. And all of a sudden, like Cincinnati is at the table now. Like, I guess we're having dinner with Cincinnati. And so it ends up being the case, right? And we're sitting there going, like, Matt corral, like it's not the guy who like didn't really do all that much against Alabama. And then we're looking at going like Bryce young, like, Okay, cool. Especially maybe he loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game. And then you're sitting there with a potentially 12 and oh, Cincinnati team, and Desmond Ritter, who now has the opportunity to kind of catch up from a stats standpoint, like the just win games are over. And now it's like, oh, you get ECU. Like, let's throw five touchdowns against that, like something like that. We're gonna pile up some stats here. I still think Ritter has an opportunity. But I've got a different guy here. So we've got we've talked about Georgia and the idea like the quarterback, like we don't even really know who's going to play on a week to week basis. You can't you know, you're not going to give it to one of the running backs or one of the defensive players. That's just not a thing that's going to happen, right? Penn State, Iowa and talk about this game on Friday. That's another path game. But it's another example of quarterbacks that we're just not that psyched about. None of those guys are like, yeah, Heisman candidate, right. So some of these top five teams don't have the quarterbacks that normally the top five teams have. And so if it's not going to be Desmond Ridder as like an MVP, candidate type of thing. It's just gonna be a guy who's putting up gaudy statistics, right? We're just gonna look at him, and we're gonna have like, he's doing what? And it's somebody that we haven't really thought of. And so I'm going to put forth to you, a gentleman by over with the Pittsburgh Panthers, their quarterback, yeah, okay, pick it, pick it, which is just an unfortunate name for a quarterback, however, 19, to one touchdown to interception ratio, right now phakic. In his yards per attempt, you've got 10.3 that is, like, outstanding. First of all, most it's second in the country, to I believe rice young, who, again, is going to have a really high yards per attempt, because his players are so good that they break, you know, all kinds of runs. But he's forced in the country in yards right now. Right? And so like, do you need to leave? Leave the country in yards? No. Does it help? Absolutely. Right, or being close by so you know, he's racking up the yards, he's about to get into the ACC schedule, which means two things, right? It's gonna get tougher, but it's also gonna get more, you know, there's gonna be more focus. And as we've talked about, right, the ACC is absolutely up for grabs. So there's a decent chance he and his pit Panther team end up in the ACC title game, right, with a couple of victories. They have Clemson at home, right? So they have these showcase games down the stretch here and pick it's already got a 19 to one touchdown to interception ratio, which is by far the best in the country. He's a guy who's a pro type of prospect, right? They've talked to him with him about how he's met with Peyton Manning. And like he's, you know, he's got him on speed dial basically. Right? So the story kind of eventually writes itself. Now we're not looking at Pittsburgh right now because they haven't had a signature win. But if they start piling up victories and find themselves in an acc championship game where you're playing the very last weekend of the season, right like that matters, especially in a wide open race, if you were playing in that final weekend where it's championship weekend, and hypothetically you do well, that will help your case he's 40 to one right now. And that's wide open like in a wide open race like that's a really good bet for a guy who's you know, again 19 to one for my touchdown interception ratio. The other one I mentioned for a running back standpoint be john Thompson. We're gonna see him in the Red River rivalry this weekend. I can't believe how well I'm saying Red River rivalry so far. Be down Don't jinx it don't drink. I know I really went for in the last one. Be john Thompson's 40 to one and again we've talked about them mix and matching with regards to the Texas quarterback situation. Be john Thompson is going to be the reason why they beat the Oklahoma Sooners and they're going to do so on national television. And that's going to propel them we talked about how much people love the long horn so there's a couple of 40 to one shots that you know we've already got our ticket on Ritter at 66 to one we've been riding that and be john Thompson could be the best running back this year. And again, if Texas wins, that's going to go a long way to help his cause. And again, pick it is the guy That I think from a stat standpoint who will get some chances on the big stage, we could see some major movement in in that market for him at 40 to one right now he could be 10 to one in a couple of weeks.
Sheldon:Hopefully a lot of DBS don't pick it versus pick it for your
Matt:guys sick. Nailed it on it. Like that. There's
Sheldon:something there. I mess it up at the end. But there's something there. I was trying to get you at the bar. Let's keep things going to stop my terrible rapping skills here, but we'll do some pics. Oh, yeah, that was the link right there. Right. Pick it
Matt:in now we're gonna pick it up. We've got three games and now we're going to pick it
Sheldon:or Well, yeah, I messed it up. I messed the whole thing up, but we'll keep it going. We'll keep it moving. NCAA Hicks, Coastal Carolina minus 19. at Arkansas State.
Matt:Right. What?
Sheldon:That's a lot of points. It's a lot of
Matt:I do. Listen, I'm not in the business of laying three touchdowns on the road with a football team until this week, but this week, right and so was on the Arkansas State team. We had relatively high hopes for earlier on this year. first game of the year. They played with Memphis, right? They were right there with them. Both teams scored 50. They were like, Okay, this Arkansas State team, they lost their coach and the quarterback who had you know, gone to sort of a better gig, if you will. And we're like, okay, like this Arkansas team has a shot. And then they go up against Washington, and they do not score and that was a Washington team that we were like, this team really stinks. Right? And so we thought we were going to be had something with Arkansas State at that point. It turned out we did not. And so now if you look at their travel schedule, right, they go and they go all the way up to Seattle, Washington from Arkansas, they come home, then just go over to Tulsa, Oklahoma, not that far away. And then they go over to Georgia and they played Georgia Southern and they get absolutely trucked by Georgia Southern a team that just fired their coach they had a lot going on there with like guys doing shotgunning beers on the top of buses before games, like they got blown out by that team. Right? And it's because Georgia Southern runs the triple option. And to me it just looks like an Arkansas State team that's exhausted right because when you give up 50 to a triple option team who just by nature is a ball control like run the clock down like type of an offense. If you give up 50 to that style of a team you're probably not that interested in tackling Alright, and now Coastal Carolina comes to town and they're going to do it a little bit differently right they are going to do it quicker. They are going to throw the ball on Arkansas State and so they could be up 21 here by the end of the first quarter certainly by the end of the first half and I just don't know that Arkansas State has the let's use the term gumption late in the game to try to you know to be able to backdoor this and so this is going to be one where you think you're gonna sort of sharp here and you're maybe you're waiting and you're like maybe you get 21 points and you take that and then by the second quarter you're like oh my god they're going to get run off of their own field and like that's just I think what the situation is going to be here so I'm actually going to lay the points with Coastal Carolina it's fully expecting 45 to 17 something along those lines
Sheldon:another team that will be favored on the road is Houston minus six at two lane
Matt:yeah and listen we talked about it last week and it came came to fruition well who is this two lane team? Like why why is the market obsessed with two lane they go on the road and their favorite against ECU? And we're like well that just doesn't make any sense. And guess what happens? ECU blows them out. right we're just like yeah, of course they did. Right? Like like okay, I'm nobody's predicting a blowout necessarily. But we're on the money line from a home underdog standpoint, right? Like that's a go to if we don't believe that a team deserves to be a favorite on the road. By definition, we not only have to take the points but we are going to bet on the money like now they return home and they better Houston team like have you ever had more fun in your life than Friday where we had Iowa minus three. And we had Houston and both teams one like and covered and it was easy. And they were it was first half blowouts, right. Easiest thing we've ever had. No. Is that skewing me a little bit. This line was four and a half. I made it six it's now up to six. So that makes sense to me from like a fair price standpoint. But like if you've been listening to this podcast, and I've been wondering like, why people think Tulane is good. And Houston, you know, we just had a really nice showing from Houston that we're full value for every bit of that blow. Why wouldn't I be on Houston? Again this Thursday. Now does that mean we're sitting there you know, laying points on both of the college football games and does that make me wildly uncomfortable? Absolutely. But I think those are the two ways you have to look if you're going to bet those games.
Sheldon:So how do we have to look as we switch gears to the NFL because Thursday Night Football matchup, I would like to think is somewhat of a big boy matchup. But before we get to the details here, another reminder, you got to get to the full preview. Use that are up on DRF comm slash sports where we've already got the Thursday Night Football preview up there with our guy Scott Grambling who writes the Seahawks in part this is one of the things he writes the Seahawks come into this game having gone 10 in one straight up and eight one and two against the spread in Thursday night games under your boy, Pete Carroll I added the your boy for the records.
Matt:You certainly just got to clarify that part. Certainly now,
Sheldon:that's an interesting stat and an interesting matchup with the Rams laying two points in Seattle. I'm gonna be honest here and I'm just gonna say I I look at this game and I'd be quick to overreact to what just happened on Sunday. And I'm not gonna do that. I'm not going to overreact to the Rams losing I'm not going to overreact to the Seahawks winning I don't like laying the two points on the road. I don't but I'm gonna do it and I'm on the ramps Yeah. That reaction?
Matt:I don't hate it. I love it. I love it I think and I think that's sort of a very sharp way to look at it right where you go Okay, like you know, we just talked about the concept of like, I still have the Rams rated above the Cardinals. I still have the Rams rated above the Seahawks, you factor in home field advantage and all that sort of thing. And this game kind of spits out pick them, right? Which is where the line essentially started. And it is funny, right? Like you would expect people to be like well, Seahawks one Rams loss like Let's bet the Seahawks and you would expect that line to move in favor of the Seahawks. But it hasn't it's moved in the favor of the Rams and the thing is it's like yeah, it's very easy to look at the Seahawks and go secondary is still pretty bad. Right? And you know, whether it was Garoppolo or certainly Trey Lance, they weren't going to take advantage of that Seahawks secondary on Sunday. Right? And now you get the Rams in and you Cooper cup and Robert woods and van Jefferson and they're running free like you know Swiss boys in a meadow and you know having the time of their lives and you can see that happening. problem is I also see that with the Rams like I don't know that the Rams secondary and like a guys getting beat deep and like it's Jalen Ramsey. And then a bunch of other dudes like whether it was Chicago, whether it was you know, basically every game that they played this season, right? Like they have been, you know, beat deep at various points, right? The Cardinals for score was AJ green, you know, being able to beat the Rams deep. And like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, like those guys are going to be able to do that as well. And so I think maybe, and listen, I'm a horrendous with the totals. We never talk about totals, because it's like, I might as well just be speaking German. Okay, this does feel like a really high scoring type of a game, right? I don't know what the what the weather situation is necessarily going to be like. And so it feels like that's the case. So maybe look to the over if you are somebody who bets totals. Maybe this line gets to three based on the fact that it just kind of keeps moving here. Yeah, I also think it's a really good teaser piece. And it isn't the same tsps that we see like that we've seen over the last couple of weeks where it's like do we tease Carolina down to minus one and a half do we tease Cincinnati down to minus one and a half, and then you're just like hanging on for dear life. And all of a sudden like Houston or the Jags have a lead at halftime or third quarter or something like that. You're like, Oh my God, why did I tease this number like down blah blah blah. This is a different one. This is one where it's like it's not like the most fun you've ever had because the Rams could win this game by 10. But we're getting to a point where this is a two, two and a half and you can tease the Seahawks up to eight or eight and a half. Knowing that you know Russell Wilson even if they get down a couple touchdowns like you think Russell Wilson is going to give up? Yeah, I don't. Right. And so I think this is a nice tease piece to start the weekend and I will mention this. Every primetime game this week has a very attractive teaser leg to it. There is a Thursday Sunday Monday night or teaser here that is just screaming right you've got the Ravens on Monday night that you can tease down to minus one against the Colts again congrats to the Colts for the win against the dolphins still don't think that cold seems very good especially with the key injuries right quick Nelson's not coming back for the against the Ravens defense. And then the Buffalo Bills. Same kind of story here, right plus two and a half. You can get them up to eight and a half against the Chiefs defense that we're not all that psyched about. I think the bills very live to win that game in general, but you're getting eight and a half points. So you're like, wait a sec, there's a possibility of getting a Seahawks at home, plus eight and a half of bills against the Chiefs defense plus eight, eight and a half and then a ravens to just beat the Colts at home on Monday night. That's a kind of nice little teaser now it's no no such thing as a guarantee. Right? And maybe you get a little spicy. There's a couple other games on Sunday maybe there's some minus sevens you want to get down to minus one maybe there's some two and a half you want to get up to two eight and a half right those standard mathematically correct ones that you can kind of build around but like it's not going to get more obvious than these three night games here and the teaser legs that I think are really attractive
Sheldon:All right, I like it I like it and those things when they seem a little too easy woof that's that's that often are
Matt:right but this is not something that a lot of people are going to talk about right like this isn't like oh you know bucks are definitely going to win or anything like that it's just value right? Like bills plus eight and a half like they get they might lose by 14 it might be like the AFC Championship game last year or or that's just a really close game because the chiefs are always playing really close games that often involve the other team scoring last whether that means they lose the game or cover the spread right? So again, a lot of value there I think in those three games
Sheldon:well the deep dives my dude this is why we love having you on the show. And especially this week I needed a little bit of the therapy session so I definitely appreciate that as always I'm going to head back into the lab try to come up with a little more some better pics for myself here on week five but we'll we'll dig back in on Friday is that is that a thing? Can I can I ask you want to put you on the spot man?
Matt:Listen man, you might go six and 10 but you are always super duper fly in my books which means I will come back whenever you want me to so absolutely I'll be back on Friday. Wow,
Sheldon:Mr. Matt Russell where can people find you online I'm not even going to try to top that or follow that up I can ask you where can people find you online man
Matt:as always and without the Missy misdemeanor Elliott references at Mrs. Authentic on twitter at m Russ authentic on Twitter. Everything that I do over the score gets retweeted through there. Obviously all the stuff that we do here gets retweeted as well so anything over there and of course all kinds of complaints and sarcastic remarks and sometimes I even screen shot people calling me an idiot online for my ratings which is hilarious because I didn't even make a pic that kind of fun stuff. We like to make fun of ourselves here you know in our little corner of the internet as well. So yeah, love what you're doing, man and happy happy to come on anytime.
Sheldon:Thanks to Matt for coming on the pod and if you want to follow me online, you can do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. But for more from a brand new project from DRF sports head onlines DRF comm slash sports and if you're not familiar with the letters DRF daily racing form has been around for over 100 years giving you all of the information and data and analysis from the horse racing world. But now we're taking over sports. So if you want coverage on every football game, as well as the NBA, the MLB and more head to DRF comm slash sports for all the details and insights. And the site you have to remember has all the data on every game including offensive and defensive stats, betting angles, line movements, key injuries, head to head records and team stats. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. So if you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. If you want to access the raw data, that's where you got to go to drf.com slash sports, the usual previews plus our in depth analysis that you can get twice a week on this podcast. However you want your betting information. We've got you covered. But as mentioned, my name is Shaun Alexander and I'd like to thank you for tuning in once again to the DRF sports podcast and until next time, see.
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