On this episode, it's the Friday Picks Pod with our best bets in both the NCAA and NFL.
On this episode, it's the Friday Picks Pod with our best bets in both the NCAA and NFL.
Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready Set that
Matt:this is the DRF sports podcast episode 10. Make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sheldon Alexander. A reminder we do this twice a week. On Tuesdays we recap the week that was and on Fridays. It's the pics pod. Now I'm coming off a big win on Thursday Night Football as the Rams rolled over the Seahawks as well as two other wins in NC double A action last night. But the NFL week five continues with a full slate of games as we try to arm you with all the information you need to win your bets this weekend. So make sure you check out DRF comm slash sports because that's where you can get all of the details and insights including power trends, line movements, teamstats, and even more betting angles, including Scott grumblings, weekly six pack in both the NFL and NCAA. So make sure you check that out again DRF comm slash sports, that's where you need to be every single day for all of our game previews. Plus, of course we go in depth on this podcast, however you want your betting information. We've got you covered. On this episode of the DRS sports podcast. Matt Russell joins us as we try to top last week's performance in which we gave out three outright underdog winners in the NFL. plus another winning record with our college football picks. Three more wins for you last night in the NCAA and NFL and all we're trying to do here is just stay hot. You hear that Iowa? I know it's a massive weekend with the Hawkeyes is slim favorites at home to Penn State. So let us know who you got. Take a listen to our brand new episode of the DRS sports podcast episode 10. To find out who we got a drf.com slash sports twice a week we've got you covered for everything you need to know to arm you and help you pick some winners. And luckily for you, it starts right about now. He's back again on the Friday picks pod and after a wild Thursday Night Football matchup between the Rams and Seahawks, including a Geno Smith citing feeling my dude
Sheldon:I'm reeling what uh, like just a game on drugs at the GLA Matthew, Matthew Stafford gets hurt, you're like, oh, Rams are in trouble here. And like how often do you see both quarterbacks get hurt? You know, same kind of injury, right hand type injury. And it's like, No, no, no, sorry, Russell Wilson is going to be the guy who's hurt to the point where he has to come out of the game. And yeah, that's Geno's Smith's music. And then like he's not awful, right? He's ipsum down the field he makes a great throw to DK Metcalf for the second touchdown and you're just like oh my god is this going to happen and so you know watching that game and you know we'll get to the NCAA stuff in a little bit as well but I'm also watching those two games and we ended up both cashing both of those tickets that we had from Tuesday's show and so I'm like feeling really good about things and when I gave up the under over at the score on it on a piece that I wrote earlier this week and it's like everything's going really well and if this game right like this game is going to now I always say like the first half it you know often decides whether team covers are not and the second half is winning time right like that decides the money line so first half point spreads second half money line and and I don't know about you but like you've seen Russell Wilson's work I kind of felt like if he was in that mix right he was gonna do Russell Wilson type things and that game was going to be close and you and I talked about bets that you know sometimes really good bets lose the teaser leg the Seattle Seahawks plus eight and a half a phenomenal bet right? Like you know what percentage of the time do you think that cash is 90 95% of the time and so the fact that we're paying minus 270 for a teaser leg there that you know we need to cash 74 75% of the time to be profitable somehow it doesn't and it comes down to two seconds and it's not the most dramatic right it's not going to be on you know scarf and pelts bad beats or anything like that. Right? Or maybe it would be I mean, honestly it was that it was that sort of rough. But you know, it isn't just the matter of Geno Smith throwing that interception and it's like if you did it one play later, man if you did it with one play later, me You know, Rams take knees and the game is over. It's like, also if you had thrown that interception anywhere else on the field, right because the guy grabs the body runs immediately out of bounds. So any amount of like just kind of like running around with it or like they do the thing where they go like that, you know, they first started start running and then somebody says, like, No, no, no go down, because we don't want you to fumble it back. Like any any type of movements basically, would have killed two more seconds off the clock, but because that interception happens, bang, bang, right? Like catch out of bounds. It's like, no, boom, an incredibly good teaser like that again, I would make that bet 100 times out of 100 doesn't end up cashing and you know, then they go to the replay and lock it gets wiped out and you're like, how is nobody on that? Like, that's illegal contact but you're like you just short you know, shrug your shoulders because officiating in football. And yeah, so I mean, that's the thing, right? Like it, it leaves this stench, right, it leaves this bad taste in your mouth on an otherwise really profitable night. So yeah, a lot of mixed emotions. We got double punts coming. Geno Smith is involved. You know, who knows, man, you never know what to expect on a Thursday night.
Matt:Yeah, how many more close ups that we need to see of Russell Wilson's mangled finger? I think like after the 80th one, it was like, okay, we get it. He can't Yeah, yeah. But yeah, this is this is what it is. You're riding the wave, week to week through every game and the Primetime games continue to live up to the hype. At least they're entertaining, right? There's stuff going on there stuff happening. But here's what we do each and every week. We try and get through as many pics as possible in both the NFL and NCAA. I try and give out the lines tell you which way I'm leaning with the public narratives and all that fun stuff. And then Matt comes in with some information and education as I like to say on where the line is, where it was and where it could be going before kickoff. As mentioned, I cashed in a nice winner on Thursday night thanks to the Rams in your boy Geno Smith that was hitting with both NCAA picks last night so let's try and keep the good times rolling here. We start off with the game that's in London. Remember to set your clocks people we got the one in three jets at the one in three Falcons in London Falcons, two and a half point favorites. Now these London Games are tough as you never really know which team will react to the travel schedule better. If we go back to last week's out action the Falcons put up some points but they have no idea how to win games they can't close right? The Jets finally looked like a functioning NFL team and their first win of the season. But for me the Falcons laying two and a half points is never a place I want to be to be honest, you can play this game anywhere and the Falcons laying points. I never want to be on that side. That's just where I'm at. So give me the jets and the points but where are you laying here man?
Sheldon:Yeah, you have absolutely retired from backing the Falcons as a favorite any point. This is an easy one like this is a really easy bet to make that i think you know we talked about, Hey, don't just show up on Sunday. Don't just show up on Friday, Thursday, whatever looking to make your bet because if you even just looked at the lines on Sunday night, Monday I believe you had Tuesday as well maybe even a little bit of Wednesday. You would have seen that your Falcons here were three and a half point favorites right and obviously like that has to jump out at you. What are we even doing this for? If that doesn't jump out at you right like have you people learned nothing you know obviously tongue in cheek there but like yeah, if you look at that game you okay neutral fields. I get it's the Jets. But it's also the Falcons like I was ready to lay three and a half points or take excuse me three and a half points with the Jets. When for like the half second. I thought this game was in Atlanta, right? Like when it was a road game for the Jets. I was like, sure you're gonna give me the hook because it's in Atlanta as if that matters. And then I'm like, boo. I'm like clue. And I'm like, Oh, this is a neutral site game in London. And you're still going to give me the three and a half points like Yes, of course. Right? So immediately the marsh and I shouldn't say that it's not even immediate, because it took a couple of days. But eventually the market all just sort of sits around looks at each other and goes like, why are we taking the Jets here and like then everybody took the Jets. And so that number goes down to three. And the problem is are the issue is if you're not on top of these things relatively early, listen, there's not going to be a ton of bets that you absolutely have to make on Monday. But if you're not, you allow other things to happen over the course of the week that will affect the point spread. And in this case negatively if you're looking to back the Jets, right? Give it a few days, all of a sudden Calvin Ridley is out for this game. And now all of a sudden somehow it matters that Russell gage is also out of this game but again, cluster injuries to the wide receivers and so if you were sitting there and maybe you saw it, go to three and you're like I missed out on the three. Maybe it goes back To three and a half that's where the market reading has to come in like you have to know regardless of who's may or may not play it's not going back to three and a half you're not getting that hook back and by the way if you do get the hook back in any sort of circumstance like that it's probably not a great sign for your underdog if they move back off of three and go to three and a half so you might not want that that anyway and of course the Ridley thing comes down and he was to see effect the point spread that much obviously it moved off of a half point and that's a pretty big move off of three but I think it was good ahead there anyway because like you said, What business do the Falcons have being like favorites have any sort of consequences over anybody right yeah and so yeah, this is definitely sort of a snooze you lose situation here but I like to think you know our listeners are you know, pretty sharp people out there you'd notice right you would see right away that like three and a half just way too high for the Falcons and you would make that bet it was literally the only bet that I made early on in the week and I'm thankful obviously that I did Now does that mean it's gonna win for sure of course not right but we're talking about making positive expected value plus Evie good strong bets and jets plus three and a half was that and I'd like to think that we all sort of recognize that right away
Matt:yeah and i know i missed out on that I'm gonna be here on the Jets plus two and a half and hey that extra half point two point you snooze you lose you're right but still at no point do I want to be on the Falcons lane points anyway
Sheldon:yeah, it lines an option though right like again if it's a coin flip game right if it's a literal like I don't know who's gonna win this game like both these teams are dreadful. Just take the money line right and whether that was plus 150 early in the week or whether it's plus 130 now the only thing that you're missing out on is that extra 20 cents right it's not going to change whether or not you win or lose the bet right like if they win they win they actually lose they lose right so you know the two and a half stuff because yeah what if this thing goes to overtime these you know, London Games somehow end up in overtime pretty frequently and you know what if it goes to overtime and they kick that field goal right like you're going to be kicking yourself you will feel better about losing a money line bet in that circumstance than you would by you know, missing out on on market entry as they say
Matt:I'm interested what the market entry is on this next game here as we move on, it's the one in three patriots is 9.5 now, at the one in three Texans. This is a massive, massive line and it's weird to me for the Pats who haven't looked prolific at all on offense and now we're asking them to be nine point favorites against anyone on the road. I can't do it. I'm on the Texans because that just seems way too out of whack and I know we talked about it on Tuesday as your mind kind of shifted a little as we head closer to the game
Sheldon:no because again like it's sort of fundamental premise right like you can get all sort of wrapped up in like okay like which team is you know doing this or doing that and handicapping games and like you know I do that certainly right like that job but then you just go okay like there's a fundamental premise here that we talked about on Tuesday right big home underdog now goes on the road as a big road favorite like it just it isn't you know congruent now you know, you break it all down and you go Okay, well yeah, obviously because the Texans are atrocious. And Tampa Bay is really good and like that's why you know, there's a wide sort of gap between the two. But when it comes down to like this game, you're right, like how many points are the Patriots going to score? Right like it's not going to be a ton necessarily. We saw the Panthers what two weeks ago as nine point favorites and they have far more of an offense that was at a time when Christian McCaffrey was healthy because he got injured in that game so before that game, right that was an eight and a half nine point spread Well, I trust Carolina to score a lot more than I do the New England Patriots. And so again, fundamentally here you have to take the the underdog here in a circumstance after a team goes from home underdog to road favorite, like it's obviously not gonna happen next week, the Texans are gonna all of a sudden become road favorites here. So yeah, from a market standpoint, you go Okay, you've had everybody's had a full week at this so far. And if people and the the big money if you will, was dying to back the Patriots in this role, the number would have gone up to 10. Right, we talked about the idea of like, well, let's wait and see if it gets to 10. And listen, by Sunday, when recreational money starts building up, you know, depending on your sports, but maybe this does get to 10. So I'm not looking to run out right now and make the bet, but it's one of those situations where it's either going to get to 10 and become a valuable bet from a just pure numbers standpoint, or it's going to stay at nine, eight and a half in that sort of no man's land range, which is going to tell you that enough sharp money if you will, came in to prevent it from getting to 10 right because we know the public if you will is going to be on the Patriots that's just how this works right and it's not even necessarily about being on the Patriots. It's about being against the Texans who put in their absolutely worst version of themselves last week right? Like there's the opposite of doing work and so we talked you and I talked about the concept of range right? Like we make our ratings and we go okay, is this gonna is this thing gonna play to the top of their range or the bottom of their range? Well, the Texans play to the bottom of their range and that's outdoors you know like rainy situation against you know, very good Buffalo Bills team like it was always going to be bad there just was sort of how bad answer is Yeah, marry that and now they go home right their coaches called them out for not being ready to play and all of that sort of thing so like, we're going to get the best version of the Texans unfortunately that's the Davis Mills best version of the Texans which is still only like a 25 year failure to get 27 at most out of 100 from a rating standpoint but even then, right like I can't get to patriots by nine even against a 2527 type rated team in the Texans here so yes, this is a hold your nose situation but wait see if the 10 comes up. If the line comes down then you definitely know you're on the right track here so this is gonna be a Texas bet no matter what it's just about it's just a matter of sort of timing when to enter the market as you said,
Matt:I got your moving on though. We got the three in one Browns at the three in one chargers, chargers, two point favorites at home. This is a big boy matchup to me and one of those things, it kind of seems weird, because we swap the jerseys and the team names right like this would be everyone be so hyped up about it, but because it's the browns and chargers in terms of those franchises. Seems kind of strange. But here's my thing here. Can Baker keep up on offense? I think Baker struggled a lot. I feel Herbert's cooking. And if it's only two points less than a field goal, I'm okay with laying the two points with the Chargers at home. How do you feel about this game?
Sheldon:Yeah, a couple of things here right. And you know, it was one of my favorite movies of all time. Pulp Fiction. Right? Look at the big brain on Brett. This isn't a big boy matchup. This is a big brain matchup man, we got Kevin Stefanski and Brandon Staley, like these two guys, right coach it in the year last year, and frankly, Brandon Staley is gonna win Coach of the Year this year, right? And that's and we saw that start this week and maybe it took a matchup against Jon Gruden for everybody to be like, oh, okay, like, this is a pretty drastic wreck and I'm looking at the market and like Jon Gruden still like in the top six or seven in the coach of the year market, I'm like oh, timeout like a full on shell now Xander timeout situation. You know, make it make sense type situation. But the point is, is that Brandon Staley is still available at plus 700. Now that's a favorite. And you know in a in a large market, but we've seen the work here, and we saw the narrative start to come out, right, we've seen clips of his postgame press conference. So whether it was some really sharp, you know, coaching decisions on Monday Night Football, or this sort of viral clip of him talking about the the sort of melding of analytics, and just sort of aggression in football, people are starting to see it, right. And so whether they win the division right now there plus 200, and change to win the division, whether they win that division or they sit, you know, succumb to the Chiefs at some point. Like at this point, like the track that you know, the train is on the tracks here for Brandon Staley to win Coach of the Year and he was the priests one of the preseason favorites at 1200 1300 1400, something like that. And so you're not getting the preseason price necessarily, but you're getting it I think, honestly in a couple of weeks might be the odds on or close to it odds on favorite to win that award. So hopping on that now. That being said, I think I'm going the other way on you here with car chargers. And and here's the problem and and the fundamental issue for me is that like and we talked about it like five, you know, five to 45 minutes before the game on Monday night, depending on you know, when the game actually started, I thought to myself, like oh my god, I'm going I'm going against Brandon's Daly and Justin Herbert with Derek Carr, and Jon Gruden. Like what a horrendous decision This is like, I know sort of like paralyzed I'm like, What do I do? What do I do now? And so to say like the very next week, I'm going again to go against those guys does feel a little foolish. That being said, first and foremost plus too, you know, we're talking about things that you should do automatically. Let's get that up to eight, right, perfect teaser leg and was a perfect teaser leg with the Seahawks. Again, not that I'm dwelling on it. But again, a perfect teaser like that. Now I have to sort of go back to the drawing board and start to find other legs to pair that with this weekend. really tough spot for the charger. So right like knock off the Chiefs riding high we dared them to show out in you know the following week and the thing that you know I probably should have given more credit to is the fact that they played on Monday Night Football game right it's hard to kind of phone in on Monday Night Football game unless you're Jon Gruden is Raiders you know and so it's like okay you know a real high on the Chiefs win a real high on a division win at home on Monday Night Football and now you got a Browns team coming to town like this is a really good football team right we know this and you're right about the branding right? Eventually we'll get to a point where chargers and browns is like this is an awesome game we're just unfortunately not there yet with the public but you and I know these are really two really really good teams and so the charges are going to get hit in the mouth by the Browns right they're going to hand it to chub and Hodge and they're going to you know like absolutely hit you in the mouth with it and so now that we've seen the Browns go on the road it's not the easiest spot for them back to back road games necessarily either but now that we've seen them go on the road to Minnesota and be able to shut down an offense that was cooking along pretty well there right Kirk Cousins was getting things done with those weapons on the outside and they couldn't move the ball I mean they could move the ball a little bit but they certainly could not actually score points against the browns and so you know I know it's two points so it's not like we're like you know getting a ton of points necessarily here but it's certainly a lien for me on the Browns here at plus two we are watching it slowly tick up so there's a possibility like we did last night where that Seahawks line hit three now again different universe Russell Wilson doesn't get hurt like maybe again whether or not they win or lose maybe that game still gets tighter within that three point spread right that was certainly a viable looking result throughout much of that game while he was healthy. I think it's a pretty similar situation right? You wait and you see if you can get three points with the Browns it's just a really tough spot for the Chargers to get up. But I believe in that coach man I believe in that coach you know, and whether it's getting them up from motivational standpoint or tactically to do the right things. Unfortunately he's up against the guy who won the award last year and tactically is as you know, potentially as sharp as he is so my best bet for this whole game is just grab that Brandon Staley Coach of the Year right now because let's say they do and let's say you're right and they win this game right and now they've got you know the Chiefs under their belt and the Browns under their belt. That's pretty good for the resume for Coach of the Year so I would grab that as soon as you possibly can. Yeah,
Matt:super interesting matchup and that's the beauty of what we do here Hey sometimes you're on one side sometimes I'm on the other. We leave it to you the viewer to make your decision there we just try to arm you with as much information and even the thing that I love the most Matt given you some different angles on ways that you can still make some bets make some money on this game. It's beauty of what we do here I love it. The two and to bears at the three in one Raiders Raiders are five and a half point favorites now the bears offense and Justin fields showed some signs of life last week but even without that I'm having trouble taking the Raiders to be anyone by five and a half points it's too much too many points for me too rich for my blood I'm on the bears here Give me those points at five and a half What do you think?
Sheldon:Yeah you're grabbing your chips off the roulette table before seeing another spin when when it comes to the Raiders because yeah, like they were exposed a little bit there on Monday right and the thing we always talk about Derek Carr and the Raiders is the offense is going to work when you Blitz him because when a coach and a quarterback who are relatively sharp when it comes to offensive game planning and that sort of thing have worked together for so long at that at this point that these two have right the best case for them is facing a blitz because Derek Carr can recognize it because he's smart enough to do that and find who you know the one on one right the open receiver like we've seen that so far this season. Charges don't Blitz right we talked about that when it comes to again many times they play the Chiefs right? They do the sit back keep everything in front of them like make you be patient and unfortunately for the Raiders that patience man let's just hand the ball off to our injured running back here over and over and over again like where's that did not work, right? The bears have an injured running back to their own who is not going to play David Montgomery and as much as it was highly relatively speaking that I that I think of David Montgomery, Damian Williams can do the same stuff, right? And it's sort of a mind over matter or out of sight out of mind, I suppose if you will, because he was doing work for the chiefs. Right? And then he made the potential career mistake Unfortunately for him his right all of those sorts of things by sitting out last year, and the Chiefs moved on, right? Whether it was Edward delaire or you know, they're bringing in Lavie on Bell and etc, etc, right? And so he goes to the free agent market and the best that he could do is get a backup job and so he goes from a guy who could have won MVP of the Super Bowl two years ago, which nobody's going to remember right because that guy was breaking runs. Just you know, second string on the bears. talented guy, so I'm not going to I'm not going to downgrade them because David Montgomery as you mentioned, Justin fields, the play calling situation right? They No, and naggy just can't get out of his way right and he It's like he gives the reins over from a play calling standpoint to build a laser. And you know we you and I talked about this you're never gonna remember this but like last year we talked about the bears giving playcalling reins over to laser and thinking that that was going to spark Mitch trubisky because they were going to run with him a little bit more because we were wondering like why doesn't trubisky loot use his legs anymore? Like that was kind of the main feature for him when they were really successful. Same sort of deal now with Justin fields, right? Like, let's get him out of the pocket. Let's get him using his legs. So, you know, again, they covered against the lions last week. I don't know that that was necessarily completely deserved, right? That game could have gone either way, as we talked about on Tuesday. So I'm not like getting the parade route ready here for the bears necessarily. But if that offense can move the ball a little bit and if that play calling has gotten a little bit better, which you know, early signs indicate that it has, they can take advantage of a Raiders defense that guy again got a little exposed this past week. So if the bears are able to move the ball, and by the way defensively for the bears, they play a lot like the Chargers do right fourth in the league, in least amount of blitzing. Right so you know, fourth least blitzing team in the league. So if you're not going to blitz Derek Carr, now he's got to throw against seven men coverages not that easy, not that not as easy for car as when he just picks out a guy and goes like I'm throwing it up to that guy because I know we're having we get single coverage because of the Blitz, right. So again, if you're going to get that same offense of the Raiders going against that heavy coverage type style with the bears, that's not great for the Raiders. If we're getting the sort of best potential version here right now from an offensive standpoint from the bears, you know those two things obviously they line up perfectly for some value on the bears. I think the bears are very live to win this game and will be included in any round robin moneyline parlay that I do here so take the points again, if you can find a six out there, that's a key number just in case there's overtime. Guess who loves going over time Jon Gruden and the Raiders right you want to make sure if you have to pay a couple extra dollars for that right get maybe a minus 115 minus 116 something along those lines might require a wait and see approach if it goes down from five and a half to five is that the end of the world not really even four and a half not really the end of the world right five not being a key number so again you can take a wait and see approach or grab the six when it comes to the bears but that's definitely how I'm playing it I like them a lot this weekend.
Matt:Yeah, we're both seem to be liking the bears so far as we look towards that game but let's move on to a classic NFC East matchup here's what's called a showdown but I don't know if I can refer to the giants and Denny dimes as a showdown but here we go anyways the what in three giants are at the three in one cowboys cowboys laying seven points I know the Cowboys are rolling the giants are coming off a huge upset I would like to think that this game will be close but to be honest the only way I see the Giants covering is on one of those backdoor covers and the way that I'm used to watching your man's Danny dimes and the way the Cowboys defense has been ball Hawkins so far this season I don't know if that's a good look for the Giants so I'm I don't like it I don't like it and you know you I've learned the ways to not lay so many points all the time. But I'm plugging my nose and I'm taking the Cowboys I'm rolling cowboys in the seven points and I don't like it and I know what to say
Sheldon:I tell you what man I like that you don't like it right like you know not to you know sort of like train GE into like this mindset right? Like I've hypnotized you in a way here where you're now like you now revolt at giving points in a professional football game right and like yes it's going to win like a fair percentage of the time but like I just like it that's the attitude Listen, it's funny right like first impressions or in the NFL like you get a you know you never say get a never you never get a second chance to make a first impression right? But like in the NFL, you kind of do. Every time a season starts right week one, everything's fresh. And then like the Giants come out against the Broncos and they do nothing offensively. Right and like everybody just restamped their impression of Daniel Jones but if you look at it, whether it was the Washington football team matchup or I mean the Falcons to a degree right they do they it's redzone issues but at least they moved the ball or last week where Daniel Jones maybe the best game of his career certainly the best I've seen him play all of a sudden you start looking at numbers a little bit you go like maybe this is a showdown right like maybe this giants offense is showdown adjacent right and like whether they get Sterling Shepherd back or some of those other weapons right. Last week had the opportunity for could Darrius Tony their first round pick Florida Gator. Right One of the many Florida Gators that left that team after last year. He was outstanding. He was like he had tyreke Hill vibes, man, that guy was stopping on a dime. He was doing some very creative, you know, run after the catch type stuff where you're like, Oh, this guy is just different, right? And that obviously flashed to the point where it was a first round pick while he's with the Gators. But you know, it's college football and like guys are just kind of falling around you a lot of times like, is that stuff going to play in the NFL? kind of did, man it kind of did. And so it's like, wow, wait a second here. I don't know if a year from now we're talking about good areas, Tony as like tyreke Hill, you know, the way that we talk about tyreke Hill, but I imagine the first couple of games of tyreke Hill, we weren't necessarily like, Oh, this guy's going to be sort of a future Hall of Famer type guy, right? We were just kind of like, Oh, this guy has got some got some jam to him here. Right? Got a little buzz to him. And so maybe there's a little extra weapon here. And now again, maybe you get a couple other guys back here and Kenny golladay is certainly back in healthy. And that's a guy that I've liked, obviously back to the Detroit Lions days, but he just couldn't stay healthy. But healthy Kenny holiday is a really, really good player, right? And Jones is fine and sake one out in the open field. Again, the run game is still really really grim, etc, etc. But you're right, the Dallas Cowboys. But when we talk about range, we also have to talk about perception. We're getting to a point where everybody's kind of coming around. And it's funny because like, we've talked about this before, right before last season, we did a little pre season preview. And like the Cowboys were all the rage, right? We're like, Oh yeah, like maybe they were probably third or fourth favorite in the NFC. Or like look at this team like the offense and they have a lot of players here on defense. And it hasn't gone well for jaylon Smith, and so they you know, they let him go. But like just the idea that they don't have to keep a player who is kind of dragging them down defensively. They don't have to keep him on the roster. They don't feel pressure to do that because they have other guys who are better. Like that's a real indicator here that it isn't just scheme change with the Cowboys, which it certainly is getting away from Nolan and going to Quinn, but it's also talent, right and we watched Diggs right? He's got interceptions every day, quandary Diggs is you know, like he's got a touch. Excuse me an interception yesterday, I'm pretty sure stefon Diggs decided to play some dB, he might have an interception, Taye Diggs might have an interception by the end of the season. So it just sounds like the defense is working big time for the Cowboys but everybody sees that now yeah right everybody's aware of it and people are starting to buy in on this team as being a potential you know title contender if you will. That's that's bad from a market standpoint right? That means you are buying high every time that you play the Cowboys now maybe and again, I've left this open my ratings column they came out on Tuesday like I you know, I make the Cowboys you know a certain rating and it's an upgrade from the start of the season and it's been a slow upgrade and you know, there are times when I with teams that I'll have them upgraded to the point where like you can't go any further I'm willing to acknowledge that I can go further with the Cowboys right because like on different you know, whether it's digs whether it's the linebacking core whether it was you know, a relatively deep defensive line you know, there's reason to believe that that defense might be good and we know what the offense is all about right? I have to sit here and tell you about the offense. And so I leave it open to the possibility that they might be you know, 75 and 80 they might be up there um, you know, I'm just not willing to sort of pay that price just yet. I got right now that's the price that's being asked to get paid here so I think the Giants because what we've seen from them offensively and because like it's just that matchup do like that's not really a sort of handicap No, but like because that offense I think could potentially hang with the Cowboys here. I do like the Giants plus the points right and your Give me the full seven like I will take that and I will take my chances with that. Is that necessarily a contest play for me? No, but it's a bet that I'm willing to make come Sunday
Matt:I got you I got you another one here you're on the Giants I'm on the Cowboys it's a beautiful thing this is why this is why I enjoy this so much because as I'm saying this I'm plugging my nose and I'm gonna be watching as Danny dimes driving down the field for the backdoor cover I can see it now I can see it now. But what I also want to see on Sunday doing to Niners at the foreign Oh Cardinals Cardinals Laying Five points at home and to me that's just way too many points. These NFC West teams are so close and even in the games that are blowouts they're still kind of close if that makes sense. The Niners always play the cards tough plus they have a week to install the real tray lands place right which I know Shanahan's just been like hiding somewhere in like the depths of his playbook. So I'll take the points gladly here with the niners. Yeah,
Sheldon:this is this is a situation we talked about it right the computer turn you know flip it upside down, shake it to see like there's just no way I can get to five and a half With the Cardinals, right? And like my numbers, I'm like my numbers like, Okay, well, maybe if I, you know, shake up the computer, turn it upside down. Am I reading this the wrong way? Like, it's just like five and a half just does doesn't happen. Does that mean that the Cardinals can't win by six? Of course not right, this game could go to overtime, we could be absolutely correct in our assumptions, that these teams are equal in the same way that we were, I think, pretty correct at much, you know, at any point, really, during the game last night that the Rams and the Seahawks are pretty equal. Right now, again, everything shakes out. And you know, certain plays get made or don't get made. And you get a nine point win, or what maybe probably should have been a six point win last night, right? Like these things happen. Even San Francisco and Seattle a couple of weeks ago, right? Like, literally last week. It's like, yeah, you know, it was a blowout, if you will, because it wasn't, you know, hotly contested, contested fourth quarter. But even in the first half, you're right, you're like, Oh, yeah, like these teams are pretty equal, like so you can throw a blanket on all four of these teams. And you're right, right? Like whether it's me turning my computer upside down to try to figure out with these numbers make any sense to get this to five and a half. Or your boy Shanahan he's turning the book over, right? He's reading it from the back page, because that's where all the trade lands plays are. He's got to install those now. Right? He gets a week of those, and it's just gonna be running, right? misdirection, runs, right? The thing that we like about San Francisco, the thing that travels for San Francisco is those misdirection runs and like, all of a sudden call us check has the ball or he's running free in the secondary, because everybody just assumed that he was going to be blocking on this play. And it's like you were I can make that throw, right? Like Jimmy kiddo wide open. Right? It's like, well, because he's been hitting people in the face for two and a half quarters. And like, he just ran by a guy instead of hitting them in the face, right? Like that's the that's the stuff, right? And so if it weren't for the next game, and I think we're gonna talk about this would be the red light special, right? Like this is the one where I think San Francisco's live to win this game. We talked about like a traveling. A San Francisco played like four games in Arizona last last year, right? Like it is not much in the way of physical distance travel, or unfamiliarity. Right? So how are we getting anything for the Cardinals from a home field advantage? Right? We can't. By the way, in Arizona, December 26. Last year, Kyler Murray, still in the lineup, you guys cJ bethard in the lineup for San Francisco 20 to 12 for San Francisco, right? Like I you know, and I broke this down again this week. They handle Kyler. Murray really well do the 40 Niners right. And again, it's all relative, like he's still running for 60 yards. He's still throwing for 250 yards. But it isn't a total catastrophe. Again, I'm not smart enough to know what they're doing. And maybe you can make the case while I was you know, pretty banged up at the end of that season, and etc, etc here. And by the way, like the Cardinals are undefeated, and congratulations to them for being the last team to be undefeated. If you had bet on the Cardinals to be the last undefeated team of the season, you have made yourself a pretty good penny. Yeah, that being said, right, like heavy is the head that wears the crown. You have that now on your shoulders, right? We just talked about the cowboys and all the credit that they're getting right? People are head over heels for the Cardinals here, because they've won four games. Those four games included. A pretty easy walk over game against the Tennessee Titans, right is a team that just wants to the Jets. I'm not that thrilled with the Tennessee Titans so far this season. This is a team that was down nine points to urban Meyer's Jacksonville Jaguars. And Trevor Lawrence throws interception and then it you know, then Arizona ends up covering the spread and all's well that ends well. But if you're watching that game in the third quarter late in the third quarter, you're not that psyched about the Arizona Cardinals. We have talked at length about the field goal that went wide right for the Minnesota Vikings that would have handed the Cardinals that victory so it's not like it's this foreign Oh, juggernaut stuff here. We're like how could anybody lose right? or How could they be beat? This is just a situation of like things went the right way for them for for games. I you know, like, I don't want to pay for that. I don't want to pay for their the four games that they've just had. And that's what we're doing with this tax right now. That's on the Cardinals Now, does that mean we have to watch train lands and worry about his accuracy and all that sort of thing? Yes. But if there's one thing I believe in when it comes to Shanahan Well, it's certainly not his game management. It's his game planning. Right? And he from a game management standpoint, he's going to be really conservative and that might help us when it comes to having these points in our back pocket instead of hurt us when we're asking him to cover as a favorite. So Shanahan is an underdog with that run game, you know, devalued as much as they are with an overvalued Cardinals team like this is an easy bet to make never an easy bet to win. On the San Francisco 40, Niners and again that get the six right Get the six.
Matt:I love that and please understand the difference. I love it. The one in three Miami Dolphins at the three in one Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I'm seeing this line at minus 10. I never like laying double digit points. My rule initially is to you know, if you don't tell me the teams and you just tell me one team's favorite by double digits, I'm going to take the points. Know what I really don't like it here, especially after we saw how many injuries and how those injuries have affected the Bucs. We saw that against the Pats on Sunday night. Hopefully, your boy dolphins head coach Brian Flores can steal some tips from his former team and get his boy Jacoby brissette to check down his way to covering 10 points. I'm on the dolphins here, what you alluded to it, but I think we're on the same side here.
Sheldon:Oh, and then some my friend at the red light special. It's the red light special, right? It's the it's the upset of the week, it's the you know, the TLC, red light, red light special, right, Lisa? Left Eye, Lopez, it went It's good. It's really good. When it's not, it might burn down your house, right? And we're not putting a ton of it necessarily, but this is a dolphins money line play for me again, there's going to be you know, let's put it sort of in round terms, right? There's going to be four times this year, where we looked at grab a double digit underdog on the money line at a price of better than plus 300. And if we do that four times, and we can win one of those times, we'll be profitable. This is one of those times and it's and it's pretty simple here. Right? So, you know, let's do the offense defense thing. Tampa Bay's offense right now without Rob gronkowski isn't the peak version of the Buccaneers, right? I don't want to be backing a team, especially laying 10 points, if I'm not getting the peak version of that team, and certainly of this unit. And so they go and they get that win against the Patriots last week, and you know, they don't crack 20 points. Well, okay, like who's to say that the dolphins can't do that same thing? To keep the Buccaneers under 20 points. You mentioned the coach, right? You don't think he was watching? Every like minute detail of his former team's defensive gameplan he used to be the defensive coordinator over there. Maybe he's given your boy bill a phone call here maybe a text right maybe they're maybe they're on face chat or you know, snap book or whatever, you know, you know how bill would put it right. Imagine he's just got like all these sort of like latent accounts on all these on all these social media.
Unknown:Bella checks definitely on Tick tock, definitely.
Sheldon:Right, right, like yeah, so hopefully the message doesn't disappear. You know, for the dolphins this week. Defensively, I think that they can shut that team down like they got beat up a little bit by the Colts on through the run game. But that's not what the Buccaneers do, right. And if you get a steady diet of Leonard fournette like you're probably going to be in pretty good shape to cover 10 points in this game and if you're in good shape to cover 10 points in this game, there is value to you on the money line, right like if this is going to be a one score game, which I think it is then just inherently there has to be value on a plus 350 type of a moneyline let's talk a little defense here when it comes to the Buccaneers cluster injuries right like you can survive uninjured, you know an injury to a guy you can survive maybe two but when we're talking about basically the entire starting secondary of this team getting wiped out as we talked on Tuesday, it's like Richard Sherman is coming off the streets they're gonna have other guys coming off the streets that don't have the brand name of Richard Sherman and so yeah, like Jacoby brissette in the dolphins offense not overly explosive. But you know what was an explosive the New England Patriots offense right but they did enough to get it done where again maybe the kick goes in maybe the defense stops Brady you know at the end who knows couple of things go a little bit differently and they win that game but again, I think you're gonna get another game that is kind of in the teens again now it's not going to necessarily be raining though in Miami you never know it might rain for 20 minutes as hard as you've ever seen it in your life and things might get sloppy, etc. etc. I shouldn't say Miami should say Tampa, of course Florida, in general. So yeah, like I just think this is kind of just a monkey game where if Tampa Bay can get out of it. The same way they have all of these other games because again, like I when we talked about this patriots matchup last week, we hearkened back to the Falcons game. And the idea that that was a three point game and if that can be a three point game in the fourth quarter, no matter how it goes the rest of the way with multiple Matt Ryan pick sixes if it's a three point game late in that game, like that's a really good bet at plus was 12 and a half. I think that week. We're getting pretty close to that with a functional Miami team, that we're getting these points because they didn't look good last week. But as you No right you are never as bad as you look the week before and you are never as good as you look the week before and finally you've got the letdown situation here and it's like yeah Tampa Bay is going home again like it's not a ton of travel for Miami here. The players on Tampa Bay right like they know what Tom Brady means to that team. He won them the Super Bowl. Right? They were in a team before he got there. It's not like they don't care about Tom or they don't respect what he does. They wanted that game for him last week as much as you know, he wanted it for himself. And now you come back here like okay, game against the dolphins like I guess right? Like they're gonna do just enough to potentially win this game. And when you get into that low scoring like just enough to win this game type scene. That's where weird stuff can happen. And this Miami Dolphins team is known for turning teams over. They didn't do it last week against Carson Wentz, which might have been the upset of all upsets in the entire week. What if they get a pick or two against Tom here? Right? Because he doesn't have gronkowski to throw to that maybe Mike Evans bobbles a ball Antonio brown bobbles a ball, things can turn really quickly and when we're looking at a money line of plus 300 and change here I'm all about that so absolutely red light special it's our first of you know three or four double digit dogs that we'd like to win this week.
Matt:I like it. But if you're that worried about the Bucks possibly falling here the Bucks obviously would be a lot of people's favorites for maybe a survivor pick so we don't really like the bucks in the 10 points. Where are we leaning survivor wise?
Sheldon:Yeah, absolutely right and so that's exactly it I'm sitting around I will be thrilled with as many people who take the books as possible obviously a couple different reasons right one I just talked about like I don't want to lay 10 points with a team that I'm not getting the best version of I also don't want to serve you know a survivor pic of a team that I'm not getting the best version and maybe that means I'm gonna have to use the Bucks later on as a six point favorite or a five point favorite or something like that. But if they're the best version of themselves IE healthiest then I'm fine with that. And so okay, people can take this sort of like you know, percent 80% 50% however you want to frame it, they can happily take the bucket I'd be thrilled with that which means we ought to pick somebody else and you've seen again where you would like to use the market we like to use point spreads and moneylines to kind of decide from a value standpoint what we should do for survivor the Minnesota Vikings have moved from seven and a half point favorites to nine and a half point favorites we have watched them you know the market all decide that seven and a half points which is a lot of points in the NFL as you know wasn't enough right? We need to favor the Vikings by more than this now Am I dying to lay nine and a half points with the Vikings? No, not necessarily right but it gives you an indicator here of what the market thinks the chances are that this lions team stuns the Vikings so when we talk about okay do I get the best version of this team? I'm getting a pretty healthy Vikings team the dalvin cook thing notwithstanding but that unfortunately again not for fantasy football people out there who just you know ride or die with the big names here is dalvin cook expandable. We've talked about a man kinda is right Alexander Madison his twin out there similar number they both got the dreadlocks coming out of the helmet right? You don't even really know you're watching the game you like the dalvin cook just busted 20 are growing. It's like no, I was Alexander Madison like Oh, come on. And so like if that's your biggest injury issue. I'm okay with that. Speaking of injury issues, if we're feeding a team for survivor, we would like the worst possible version of themselves. What do we like about the lions? Right? The trenches Dan Campbell, like he's ready to suit up and that you know, the team is sort of taking his personality of like, let's be hit people in the mouse. Well, what if two to three of your best offensive lineman aren't available? That's a problem, Senator Frank Raksha. Now Taylor Decker left tackle and potentially the first round draft pick Panay seul. All could be out for this game. Not an ideal circumstance. And you're going against Daniel Hunter, who is like right up there when it comes to sacks this season. So like offensively, I mean, we know the Vikings, you're able to move the ball against the lions defense again, by the way there without Romeo claro their best pressure guy on the defensive line outside linebacker type position. The secondary is atrocious, you got feeling and Jefferson are just going to have a field day out there. And then again, from an offensive standpoint, Jared Goff under pressure here potentially, like it's got the recipe for disaster. I may just lay those points with the Vikings. It's certainly you know, the market has obviously sort of back that concept up by moving this up from seven and a half to nine and a half. Again, it's survivor, right? There's 18 weeks in the season, certain contests you have to pick 20 teams are the Vikings a top 20 team in the league. Absolutely. So in theory, you are going to have to use them eventually there will never be a better spot than a mangled, downtrodden lions team coming to town. We're playing their second straight road game while the Vikings are playing their what second or third straight home believe it's their third straight home game and coming off a loss right so again yeah well attention everybody's locked in here you know we don't think the season's over we've been competitive competitive but we got to get this win against the lions right it means as much to them as it will all season long so to me relative no brainer here with the Vikings
Matt:foe of the Vikings highlight the next matchup we got here as a three in one Packers three point favorites heading into Cincinnati and the three in one bangles This is more about me fading the Packers I can't lie because I'm still don't like I'm still not trusting or believing at the high end Packers I feel like this is straight brand name stuff we got going here but for that reason I'm taking the bangles at home and the points if the game that could be a shootout lots of scoring I'll sit back and sit on the points at the end
Sheldon:I'm impressed man I'm impressed this is this is back in the day if you will this is the this is the sucker bet of the week right this is like the how're the Packers only three point favorites against the bangles and that and you know to reframe it for everybody you know now we've sort of rebranded it the like night out in Vegas where you can't imagine that going badly and all of a sudden you wake up the next morning and it went badly that's laying the points here with the Packers like this is preseason a six point favorite type of a game and then it was opened at three and a half and again the early money often you know pretty good indicator took the Bengals right that's not a thing that usually happens when a high brand type team like the Packers takes on a team low brand like the bangles like often it's Let's wait and see how many points we can get with the Bengals. In this case the market was like no we're gonna gobble up that hook we're gonna grab that plus three and a half we're gonna do it now. All right, we're not gonna wait around to see if the public comes in on the Packers which they will key thing here massive injury that very few are talking about Jaya Alexander, you know, shut down corner. Absolute lockdown guy like that old sort of Deion Sanders thing where it's like Dion's got one side of the field covered and now the offense has to deal with the other half. very much the same thing for the Packers defense right? And at first blush I was like well if Joe mixins out here are the Bengals going to be able to run the ball because whenever I look to fade, the Packers, I go Okay, can they move the ball in that defense via the run game right that's how the Vikings beat the Packers. You know last season and when they do right it's like dalvin cook at 150 yards. Joe Mixon certainly capable of that he may be out as much a p Ryan capable of that right we just talked about the downgrade from dalvin cook chat you know Madison not being that big of a deal. Maybe it's not that big of a deal here for the Bengals either but more importantly when it comes to this Alexander injury, Joe Burrell can pick any one of those weapons now right it was already going to be kind of a rough matchup for the Packers because of the depth at wide receiver that the Bengals have because when Alexander can come in and you can just pick out you know the best receiver on your team shut that guy down and if it's a downgrade to the rest of the crew it's not you know it's not going to be as decisive when you get into the Kevin King matchups of the world so now they have a rookie as their best corner do the Packers but you've got the chases right like the you know the boy like all of these other guys here for for the bangles that burrow can go five wide, he can go for wide and he can be like okay, like who's the bad matchup and there's going to be a ton of bad matchups out there when it comes to the Packers so I think this is a full on shoot out here right i think Roger is going to be able to be absolutely fine like we know what we're going to get with Rogers it's just like okay you know last score type went you know situation wins here you want to have as many points as possible I suppose. I'm not necessarily dying to bet the bangles here especially not getting that hook if Sunday rolls around and a ton of Packers money comes in recreationally and there's that book that will move it up to three and a half that's where I will hop in on the Bengals so not a massive play for me necessarily but really just kind of a warning shot as we do right like don't get suckered into the Packers could they win could they cover absolutely but this is one that you're going to be shaking your head at potentially on Sunday night going like I was so close but you know who knew that was going to come right? We just want to we just want to sort of point out to people like it's a very real possibility that the Bengals win this game.
Matt:No, I got you. I got you. And you mentioned a night out in Vegas, which takes my mind to the Vegas zone and a game that I kind of feel like we need to mention here. Vegas zone Vegas partying, your man's Urban Meyer lots of going on here. But we got the two and two Titans at four and a half point favorites in Jacksonville against Owen for Jags. This one has my radar going off in the Vegas zone. I know there's a lot going on with the aforementioned Urban Meyer and the Jags right now but no No matter how much your boy likes to party and be in the streets I cannot be in the streets betting on the Titans as four and a half point favorites versus anyone not even the Jags so I'm here taking the points and the Jags I was gonna say and Urban Meyer but right I'm taking the Jags
Sheldon:yeah and this is the unfortunate part where you have to make a bet in this or have to make a pick in this game because I don't really want anything to do with this game all that well. Let's see what this line closes and listen you guys are right like vague like columbus ohio might as well be Vegas for right because like it's never gonna get better like he's not gonna have the same he's not gonna get the same run in Vegas that he can get when he goes to his his own personal restaurant in Columbus but we we sort of back ourselves into the hedge when it comes to talking about her Meyer but it's a football thing too, right? Like you watch the clip of the team breaking the huddle, you know 123 grind right like they obviously don't respect him that much. But the thing is like there might be some value here on the Jags like this is a game where normally I'd be like yes like the jag we have to take the Jags here because we don't think highly of the Titans right but that has been you know Titans have been a fade all season long with the exception of their game against Seattle. So you okay, I don't you know we should be taking the Jags but you know the narrative comes out like okay, are they going to quit on this team? Do they respect him blah blah blah blah. It might kind of galvanize them right like if you don't like your coach and he does something stupid and like especially now you see them like making fun of it. Like that's actually a spot where like if you're on a team you're like you're feeling a little bit looser about things and you're not as tight because like Urban Meyer is going to get mad at you you can kind of go out and just kind of ball and so it means that this line moves up because people don't want anything to do with the Jags because of Urban Meyer I don't buy that because it's not like they're going to quit that's not how football works like we you and I talk about this all the time when it gets too late season type stuff right? That whole quitting thing is very few and far between and certainly not in early October because these guys are all putting stuff on tape right this is the resume this is you know if you don't like it in Jacksonville, play well and get out of Jacksonville because you will be desirable to another team. You don't play poorly to get out of Jacksonville because if you do so you will be selling cars at a you know, Ford dealership around the corner, right? Like that's how it works in the NFL. And so, you know as I talked about, it's like I'm becoming more and more likely to make a bet on the Jags it's just not a game that like you have to bet because it's like, I don't really want to watch this game. Right You can be relatively probably pretty boring game. I'm certainly afraid of Derrick Henry just running over the Jags. But it's not like they're going to get run over by Derrick Henry because Urban Meyer is getting his groove on. Like that's just not how this works. They're gonna get run over by Derrick Henry because they kind of always get run over by Derrick Henry. And so you know, like Yes, I'm probably going to end up making a small bet here on the Jags I am probably not going to watch one second of this game until I absolutely have to write in rewatch form, just to sort of, you know, obviously keep up with what happened, right? But it's not something that you have to focus on. And so if you don't want to, but really Moreover, like don't get caught up in the whole urban Meyer's doing this so I have to bet the Titans type of thing. No, you do not have to bet the Titans. You may not have to bet the Titans at any point this season.
Matt:A grade now before we get into the Primetime games on Sunday and Monday night, a little reminder that if you haven't signed up yet for our weekly DRF newsletters, you're really missing out. The Sunday scoop newsletter is 75% against the spread in 2021. Again, I'm gonna repeat that the Sunday scoop newsletters hit net 75% against the spread in 2021 so make sure you get in before this weekend's email goes out, sign up now go to DRF comm slash sports again DRF comm slash sports, make sure you sign up for the newsletter, but let's race through here a couple of the prime time matchups. We'll start with the rematch Sunday night the rematch of the AFC Championship game you got the three in one bills going at the two and two chiefs chiefs at home. Two and a half point favorites. I really cannot believe I'm here saying this. But I think the bills win this game outright. I just think the Chiefs defense is trees ash. I mean, there'll be a lot of points put up and again, I'm just going to be happy to take the points. Now I know there is part of me in the back of my mind where I'm sitting there on Sunday night watching Josh Allen just do all kinds of bloopers I'll say there for sure and remind me Why don't rate them. But what my my brain is telling me I got it Take the points with the bills here. Because when I watched that chiefs defense, just like they can't get us, like they can't get stops to save their life against a competent offense.
Sheldon:Yeah, and let's I can't disagree with that necessarily, right. But like, is your brain telling you that or is like that your brain from like, football games past telling you that because like, right, we're here, right? We were here in the AFC AFC Championship speaking of Sunday nights, right? We were here going like, yeah, I think that, you know, the bills have a shot here, two and a half point spread like, Oh, I was, right. Yeah. That's the thing, right? Like, for those of us who may have been on the bills that day, like we were doing the never again thing like the never again, are we not going to take the Chiefs when it's under field goal. Right? Or, or like if we're ever getting points with the chiefs, ie, like last year when they're on the road against the Ravens? And so like, yeah, like the defense is rough. But like, it kind of always has been, you know what I mean? It kind of always has been and like, and the defense is rough in a way that you can really rely on the other team. We talk about this all the time, that you can rely on the other team to score last. If it's not, like absolutely necessary for them to get a stop. Andy Reid does not care, right? Like he just wants to win that game. Yeah. And so you go, Okay, well, why is this just two and a half? And it's like, well, because people are talking themselves into the bill. Right? And so like, I was I, you know, again, my first blush was like, yeah, I'm counting on that, too. But then I'm like, two and a half. Like, if it doesn't, you know, I don't like to do the thing where it's like, I'm gonna feel dumb if I if I don't bet this team, because that's how they get you. Right? Like, that's actually that's how a lot of these lines are created. Why Vegas is rich. Right? And so first and foremost, right? Like the two and a half, like, what's that first inclination, right? Like, let's, let's get, let's get that drilled into our head, two and a half, up to eight and a half, right? And so whether or not you think that chiefs offense is going to pull it out in the end, which is a very real responsible sort of take here, you can back the bills here, by getting them up to eight and a half, we just mentioned the Cleveland Browns plus two as a potential teaser like that we may or may not have used with the Seahawks. Now again, right? Like just because the see it didn't work out for the Seahawks doesn't make it less likely doesn't make it more likely, just, it's the same amount of likelihood that that getting those eight points with these really high profile good games, is probably going to be a really profitable thing here, right? So you can tie some teasers to this game at getting plus eight and a half as far as two and a half. Like I said, right? I don't necessarily want to be giving, you know, the bills, anything here, from a point standpoint, because I do think they could win this game, right again, because I thought they could win the AFC Championship last year. So that would be quite the turnaround, if all of a sudden I was like, Oh, no, they can't win this game. And again, there's a set up very similarly. But again, chiefs minus two and a half under a field goal, like these opportunities, especially at home, do not come around very often. So it's hard for me not to back the Chiefs in that in that situation, if I had to make a play on the point spread. So again, I rather just take the the tease, you know, bump it up to eight and a half, get all those points, hopefully have that live going into Sunday night. And now I can just watch it thriller, which I think this game will be. Yeah,
Matt:yeah. I mean, you make interesting points. And this is why I love this pod, so much doing this pod and learning so much about the different angles, and the different ways that you can come in and figure out how to gain value on on just one specific game. And so, as mentioned, I always repeat this stuff every week, because I want people to kind of really understand the difference in how you and I really talk about, like one game, like Matt just gave you how many different ways for you to look at this game and hit different angles, or as I'm just sitting here like, Well, you know, two and a half points, I'd rather be sitting on the points at the end of the game. So hopefully, people are picking that up. And understanding there's multiple ways to go at this when you're trying to gain some value and win some money. And that's all we're trying to help you do. Right?
Sheldon:And again, money line too, right? Like when we get under that three, you know, in a lot of cases, maybe it's just about just hitting that money line, right? Because again, doesn't this feel like I it's the bill's like coming out party, right? Where they win this game and they go, okay, we are now here, and we're ready to, you know, get after hearing the AFC or, it's, I feel so dumb for you know, like, fading the chiefs and they end up winning by three, seven, even more than that, right? Like, if you believe in the bills to the point where you know, you do like, kind of just take the money line here plus 125 like that kind of type number. And again, it might not win, but to me, that's a far better bet than laying like a minus 110 price. and hoping it comes down to a two point conversion or a one point game. Because by the way, like a high total game, right? We expect a lot of scoring here. That means points become less valuable, right? Yeah, that means we might get ourselves into us. 3520 a game we're like, bills are gonna have to score some touchdowns that was the big mistake last year that we made fun of because they kept kicking field goals so they're gonna come out you know going for touchdowns here we might just get that sort of thing where it's like field goal kickers can go home here we're doing we're doing touchdowns so you might have a close game that ends in a seven point, you know, victory one way or another. And in that case, right like he might as well just have that extra juice there when it comes to the money line.
Matt:I want to know who's going to have the extra juice on Monday Night Football got an interesting matchup, the one in three colds at the three in one ravens. ravens laying the seven points as a ravens are favored here at home. And I'll say this, a wise man named Matt Russell always tells me sometimes you got to get a little uncomfortable. And taking Carson Wentz on the road on Monday night is definitely an uncomfortable place for me. Yeah, but ultimately that I can't take I can't lay the seven points. I just can't do it. So I'm I'm sitting on Carson Wentz and I don't like it
Sheldon:at all. Good because my uncomfortable place is laying points. And that's where I'm going to spend Monday because the Ravens are the bullies on the block, right? Like we know that and who is who's going to, you know, curl up into a ball here who's going to panic throw his way into problems. gentleman by the name of Carson Wentz, right? And so like this is that game where you know, the Ravens Monday night or home game, this is where they get some attention because they don't have a ton of attention, right? Which is kind of strange, because they did beat the chiefs, which like you think would get you some attention. It's like because they had to get a miracle kick from Justin Tucker to beat the lions. Like people are kind of sleeping on him a little bit. And that game was way under the radar last week against Denver and because Teddy Bridgewater goes out and it's like, kind of this like meaningless game where it's like congrats on the win. But like, how much do we really sort of, you know, how much credit extra credit do you get? This is one where if you were looking to bet a Lamar Jackson like MVP type of a ticket, maybe I'll hop in right now, right? Because maybe this is one where you get a cold stream, they just want a game. It's their second straight road game. So they're flying from Miami, back to Indy, and then now out to Baltimore. Like the you know, this is kind of a tough spot right for them. Whereas Baltimore gets set for, I mean, like, just set yourself up here. They don't play another road game until like mid November at this point, right? Like this is their time to shine. And so when we're talking about like buying low in different markets, whether it's maybe divisional conference with Lamar Jackson MVP, like this is the run that they should go on where they win four or five games in a row. And that's either going to be impressive wins when they take on teams like indivision, like the browns, etc. Or when they just hammer a team who just isn't ready to go like I think the Colts might be right. And so I think this is a big game for Lamar Jackson. And it's seven. Again, I think that markets still kind of gives a little too much credit to a Colts team for that victory. Last week. A cool team that I just do not think is very good. And so I think you're gonna get bully on the block ravens here. I think you get a big win out of them this week, something along the lines of like I think they can put up 30 points and listen if the run games not going for the Colts, which the Ravens can stop. If that run games not going this could get ugly quick. But you know how the Ravens work right? It's not necessarily ugly quick, it's ugly late because they beat you down to the point where like you have nothing left by the middle of the third quarter. And Lamar Jackson is springing 50 yard touchdowns because you're just tired of getting hit in the mouth and filling the gaps and being defensive, really responsible. And then he's just taking off like a shot. I think it's that type of game on Monday night for the Ravens
Matt:has been nervous already and we're not even we're not even at Sunday yet much less Monday night and I'm already nervous for this game. Yeah. Saturday. Yeah. Right. Speaking of Saturday, though, speaking of let's switch gears to the NCAA. NCAA picks are clicking at over 60% in our Hurry up offense segment. But before we get there, we always like to discuss some of the Big Boy games. So we have to start with a big boy matchup as the Iowa Hawkeyes point and a half favorites against Penn State. This might be as big as it gets for this season so far. Have you gotten this game that I don't know?
Sheldon:Well, you know what I you know, I love our people out in Iowa. Our fans out there. You know, just tons of people just they're sitting around the fire just listening to the podcast out in Iowa. Listen, I was hoping this was gonna get to three. I kinda like Penn State in this one that listen and we've been backing Iowa we've been actually really kind of on top of Iowa. This year we've done really well with Iowa any to any points that I can get here in a game that's that, you know, we just talked about Buffalo and Kansas City being touched a touchdown game. This is gonna be a field goal game, right? This is going to be like kicking, you know what we're talking 1917. And maybe the year, right, maybe not the score. But now this could be like a 1917 type of score, right? Where it's like two points matter. One point matters, right? This is one where it's like, I don't necessarily even want Penn State on the money line. I just want a point. I just want two points, right? Three points would be an absolute dream. And you've watched this line flip to iOS to favorite up to two, two and a half and then it stopped there before it got to three and it's ticked its way back to a one and a half type area here. So again, not a strong bet necessarily. Just give me as many points if it moved to Penn State being favored, by the way by a point and a half or two. I would absolutely be on Iowa as the home underdog here. But this is just fundamentally an issue where, again, I like this Penn State team just a little bit more Kinnick stadium going to be rockin I completely understand the hostile environment concept here and how great Iowa is turning the ball over. But Sean Clifford, I don't know why. I don't know how but he hasn't been turned over Sean Clifford this season. And then I guess I'm gonna rely on him to not turn the ball over a ton here in a raucous crowd. But you can just sort of hear in my voice like, that's really just kind of a hope here then then necessarily a belief. But yeah, I mean, give me Penn State here as with as many points as I can possibly drag out of the market. But a really interesting game here with two top five teams that I don't think we thought would be in the top five this early on in the season.
Matt:Yeah, totally interesting game there. And another one as we have a neutral site game, Texas versus Oklahoma, Oklahoma. Three and a half point favorites here at the Cotton Bowl. What do you like here?
Sheldon:Yeah, and I'm calling it the Red River shootout. Like I don't care, right? Like that's the name of it for as long as I've lived until a couple years ago where they started changing it. They made it the Red River rivalry did it again hit it a bunch of times on the podcast on Tuesday. Yeah, I like Texas. I like Texas here. I know. Oklahoma's run defense is like amazing. They give up like a third of a yard after contact like they will basically stuff you. Meanwhile, Texas run for like 250 yards on the ground. Like that's an incredible matchup. This is the game I'm most excited for pomp and pageantry. Right, right. You're gonna have the insane crowded Kinnick but you're also going to have the half burnt orange half red crowd at the Cotton Bowl. I love that. You get the I'm pretty sure the the Ferris wheel is going to be going in the background. Hopefully that's you know, cranked up there's cotton candy everywhere. What a great atmosphere. I absolutely love it. Um, yeah, give me be john Robinson, like we talked about him on Tuesday as far as like this is the chance for him to show out from a Heisman candidacy where we think that there is a void for somebody to do something awesome. So let's grab him Heisman 42 one and let's grab Texas plus three, it was three and a half earlier on the week. So I think you know, you can recognize there that there was some value with that hook. I still think there's some value here. Gus Johnson is going to be going out of his mind Fox broadcast gonna be awesome. So let's grab as many points as we can with this. And hope be john Robinson, you know, shows out right here and it's not going to get any harder for him this season. So this is his opportunity to really make a name for himself.
Matt:And we've been keeping track lately of Georgia and Alabama, the two teams that seem to be separating themselves from the rest of the class in the NCAA. First up, we got George's 15 and a half point favorites at Auburn. But then we also have Alabama's 18 and a half 18 point favorites, pardon me at Texas a&m. Two massive spreads again, if you like both laying those points.
Sheldon:I don't really like either laying the points I don't really want to be involved in these games necessarily. I think we kind of you know, we got everybody got their lesson, right? When it comes to these two main points, two main points, different stories. These teams are going on the road right against functional teams, both teams that had relatively high hopes here. I don't know that there's gonna be a ton of scoring in the Georgia Auburn game. I think Auburn's defense can do a little bit better, you know, especially from a run defense standpoint, right? Because they listen, LSU is run offense isn't any good, but like they couldn't move the ball against Auburn last weekend allowed Auburn to hang in to get that win. And thankfully they did. Because that makes this game a little bit more interesting. I'm more interested in the under in this game, and you know me, I don't love totals, I certainly don't bet them you know, in the NFL and very rarely in college football. But if you had to do something, right if I don't want to lay the points with Georgia, because I'm not sure that they can get enough points to get over that threshold. And I certainly don't think Auburn's going to have any kind of a time here to score against Georgia. Like this just kind of feels like 20 to 620 to seven Like something like that and we're looking at a total that's like 45 here I just don't know how either those teams get to that point so I might make a little exception to my rule here and not betting totals and grab the under in this game and as far as Alabama Texas a&m is concerned right, texted and thought to be a top five team we talked about them before the season as like maybe they could shoehorn their way in and do we want to back them for a title potentially and this is why we don't right because they didn't have enough they didn't have enough and now they're just sort of this middling sec team that is in you know, tough games against Mississippi State and, and so on and so forth. And so I don't want Texas a&m in this game, but again, road Alabama, listen, I'm not saying that that's necessarily a bad thing. But we're talking 18 points, we're talking about three touchdown, you know, necessity here coming off of a really big game against their former, you know, offensive coordinator and Lane Kiffin. So it's a tough spot for Alabama. So I don't want to be given the points there. But I certainly don't trust Zach ELLs on it at Texas a&m didn't do it last week, right? We were all over Mississippi State on the money line. That was a really great result for us. So no thanks to that game whatsoever side total nothing right. Like just let Alabama win. And let's just move on with our lives.
Matt:We can keep things moving here to the part of the show that I know you wait for all week long. You hear the beat, you start to get hype, you resist the urge to get your to step on, but instead, you give us the rest of your NCAA picks for this weekend, aka the Hurry up often so I'm gonna Hurry up and just get out of your way. I hear the music already so I'm gonna let you go my dude do your
Sheldon:thing. All right, let's do this thing. I just grabbed a sip of water here because you know what? Last week we did 20 games and I looked at it and I said, You know what, man? That's too many never 20 games ever again. So we have 23 games this week. Let's go. One Friday game worked out great for us last week as we went to and oh on Friday, too. And oh, on Thursday night this week, so maybe these weekday night games are our jam here. This one's gonna be hideous, hideous tempo, plus 29 against Cincinnati or like what? That's our team. Cincinnati is our squad. huge win last week at Notre Dame right? Pat's on the back everybody's super excited. How do you get up for this game? Listen, they're gonna win this game against temple right they're not gonna lose this game. We're talking four touchdowns and we're still in the clear I'm gonna take the temple owls here their quarterback is back you know six five dual threat guy it's like a big budget Philly version of Cam Newton. I think they can get just enough done they beat Memphis outright last week is 10 point underdogs think that flew under the radar here. So give me all of those points when it comes to temple Saturday let's do this thing Arkansas plus five and a half at Ole Miss this line open around pick them like Ole Miss minus one. This is like the constellation game from those games that we talked about last week between obviously you know with Alabama and Georgia and now oddly enough these teams meet. I think this is an easier game to get up for for Arkansas than it is for Ole Miss. They had the popcorn situation going right lanes making all these promises. And they just absolutely all over the field, right? Meanwhile, Arkansas gets just their teeth kicked in by Georgia and it wasn't for lack of trying, right? It's just Georgia is really really good. And has some legit dudes here. Arkansas can still play defense, they can still run the football. They are going to do both of those things against Ole Miss. And this game is going to be closer than the six points indicate. We talked about the tempo game How about another one Maryland plus 21 against Ohio State. Again, Ohio State has bigger fish to fry here coming up on their schedule with games against Penn State in games against Michigan. Maryland can move the ball down the field with Talia Todd tagovailoa. Right and the Ohio State back end their secondary has been a bit of a question mark this season. I think Maryland scores just enough to hang in this game something along the lines of like 45 to 27 like something like that where it's like the defense isn't going to stop Ohio State necessarily, but the offense could keep up Michigan State at Rutgers Michigan State undefeated they go on the road to Rutgers who just got their teeth kicked in by Ohio State last week. So why is Michigan State just five point favorites? Kind of looks a little grimy here ruckers plus five maybe little money line action if you want to start cooking up a round robin underdog money line parlay for college records would certainly be something that could be included gonna pick up the pace here I promise. South Carolina at Tennessee Tennessee our easiest win our our co easiest win last week. Does that mean that we've overreacted by making them 10 and a half point favorites to South Carolina. It does not South Carolina stinks. They have been in competitive games with mediocre teams and now they get Tennessee who is going to bomb them is going to run on them is going to do all of the above. I'm going to lay 10 and a half points which like you're probably sitting there going like you never do that. I'm going to do it this week. If they don't cover maybe never again, or at least not for a few more weeks short favorite that I'm going to be on Louisville feels a little shorter than like it should and that scares me a little bit but minus two and a half at home to a Virginia team. That could not stop a nosebleed. Not that those are necessarily easy to stop. Give me Louisville in the Cardinals here. Cunningham, you know, not necessarily a Heisman candidate, but certainly one of the more fun players to watch in the country. I think they win that game comfortably. Boise and BYU another favorite what is going on here? Give me BYU we faded Boise with Nevada another money line play last week that worked out incredibly well. Do not believe in this Boise team now they go on the road to a BYU team who by the way sneaky, been defeated team is there a path for them to get to the college football playoff? No, I don't think so. But they couldn't be included in the dozen teams that we talked about earlier on this week. Let's go into some maxion This is how we get to 23 games right here by including Mac Central Michigan and Ohio Central Michigan has two wins Robert Morris and FYI you know Robert Morris I don't even think is a real football team. FYI You certainly doesn't seem like one either. They get a ton of credit for hanging with Missouri early on this season but they are now five point favorites on the road at Ohio Ohio Atlas they're not very good either. I don't think either of these teams are any good so I'm gonna take the home underdog plus five points. Speaking of home underdogs, Syracuse Wake Forest buck in their head all of a sudden as a team that could win the ACC. Oddly enough that dome is where those hopes go to die a lot of the times and Syracuse is a scrappy group right they lost by three to Florida State that's kind of a bummer because who loses the Florida State anymore. But now you get six points with Syracuse team who beat Liberty a very good team at home a few weeks ago in a very similar spot here. I'm on the Syracuse Orangemen, and this one SMU love this team. They're by far the biggest challenger to Cincinnati the rest of the way here on the regular season schedule. They play Navy, they're on the road to Navy their favorite by 13 and a half points normally not a play place where I sort of want to get involved in with road teams. SMU is offense is going to throw it all over Navy they're going to score 40 to 50 points here Navy cannot keep up with SMU give me SMU minus 13 and a half Wisconsin Illinois. Bret Bielema against this former team it's disgusting I don't feel great about it plus 11 though with Illinois at home and just looking probably be like first one to 20 wins type of a game absolutely hideous game don't watch it just lay or just take the points and move on Florida Atlantic another big winner for us last week I'm going to take them plus four against you a B Florida Atlantic not getting the credit I think they deserve we love back in UAB a lot of the times here but we're getting for for the for Atlantic hours north Texas at Missouri again Missouri the victims to Tennessee last week and again one of our two easiest wins of our lives. Now they get to just beat the pulp out of North Texas and I think they take advantage of that opportunity knowing that the rest of their sec schedule is coming and winds will be hard to come by in the future this is the get right spot I think they win this thing by four touchdowns minus 19 is the number so if they do by three touchdowns, we'll be fine with that. Oregon State goes to Pullman Washington Oregon State's good Did you know that? I didn't even think I knew that right? Like what they be Washington last week. Not that we think that highly of Washington. They're getting a little excited about everything that's going on over there. But now they go to the hulu's and the Washington State cougars probably gonna be rainy and scummy and maybe that's actually to Oregon State's advantage. But Jaden demora and the Washington State cougars were really impressive in shutting down cow and scoring enough to comfortably win that game as seven and a half point underdogs last week at Berkeley. Now they come home it's just an absolute deathtrap for favourites that maybe we're not we're not all that sure of. So give me Washington State plus the four there. Georgia Southern quickly go ahead and Google shotgun beer on top of team bus and then you get the story of the Georgia Georgia Southern Eagles this year, but that's off the field stuff didn't seem to bother him last week when they absolutely trucked Arkansas State. I think they're live to win this game on the road at Troy who again I was focused in on way too much last week. I do not think much of this Troy team. So Georgia Southern plus five and a half, maybe a little moneyline shot there. TCU lost to Texas last week, but that was a fight. Gimme them on the roads a bit of an uncomfortable situation, but it is what it is short favorites too. And at minus two and a half at Texas Tech UTSA in Western Kentucky play each other. It's like my children playing each other. And I don't even have children. So like it is my children playing each other. I'm going to take the points here UTSA plus three and a half on the road at Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky just had those two games against big 10 teams. They're beat up man, they're beat up So like it's great that they get to go home but UTC UTSA is a much fresher team with wins on the road at Illinois and on the road at Memphis so the road is not necessarily you know, overwhelming to them so we're getting three and a half points there I'm taking the Road Runners Wyoming at Air Force Air Force minus five is the play there I don't think as highly of Wyoming as I think many do and Air Force playing really good football on both sides of the ball. Get to grit my teeth here and give LSU one last chance LSU plus three on the road to Kentucky Kentucky with that big win at home against the Gators last week. Can they do it again against top flight sec opponents add order on all of a sudden has a hot seat going like how quickly we forget right but LSU getting plus three points here I'm going to take that the one I think I like the most are the two that I don't think I like the most here coming down the pipe Michigan's going to Nebraska right and you think Nebraska like it's a horror show like their three in three like they lost a window in that first game? they've covered five straight games right we won with them last week laying a bunch of points against Northwestern I think they stung the Wolverines here this week night game and Lincoln I think that's an upset wasn't it's only a three point spread here but the money line certainly viable there as well. And Notre Dame in Virginia Tech you know this game Notre Dame was a minus one point favorites so in my underdog column this week I included Virginia Tech because they were plus one I think this line flips it's flipped to kind of back and forth already but Virginia Tech minus one anything in that pick home range here Virginia Tech just had a bye week and now they get Notre Dame they've applauding for this team you know for two weeks now whereas Notre Dame just got beat by Cincinnati and now this is starting to unravel a bit for Notre Dame so give me Virginia Tech at home there and the last two you taught us see some night game action USC minus three sneaky playing a little bit more a little better lately. I think that just the wheels have fallen off here necessarily for Utah and then Memphis plus three and a half at Tulsa tells us got one win and that was against Arkansas State. If anybody watched five seconds of that game last night where we had we we laid 19 points with Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State you know that's not that impressive of a victory right? And so now they're favored against Memphis by three and a half points we're getting the hook give me Memphis plus three and a half and that is your hurry up off. Wow. As always
Matt:a hurry up offense never disappoints. I have no idea how you do what you do but I'm glad that you do. Do what you do. Because we appreciate you coming through and blessing us each and every week with your pics especially as a hurry up offense we try to stay hot with that but Matt the people want to find you where can they find you on social media my dude?
Sheldon:Yeah, man at em Ross authentic on Twitter here, right man? So like we go, we go and we talk about pointspread stuff here, right? And we allude to money lines and teasers and all of that stuff. Anything that I write about money line parlays and teasers and ratings and all of that stuff. You can find over to Mrs. Authentic that I do for the score. And so yeah, just Just follow me on twitter at Mrs. authentics. Whether it's this podcast and doing our best bets and that sort of thing, all of that sort of auxiliary stuff that we talked about. It's all right there man at Mrs. Authentic on Twitter. Thanks a lot, man for coming through. Appreciate you man. Thanks, brother. Thanks to Matt for coming on the pod and if you want to follow me online, you can do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. But for more from this brand new project for DRF sports, you got to go to DRF comm slash sports. If you're not familiar with the letters DRF the daily racing form has been around for over 100 years giving you all of the horse racing information, data and analysis. But now you're taking over the sports world. So if you want coverage on every football game, and also everything else you need to know from the NBA MLB and more had to drf.com slash sports for all of the details, insights, and betting information. The site has data on every game including offensive and defensive stats, betting angles, line movements, key injuries, head to head records and team stats. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. If you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. If you want access to all the raw data, go to DRF comm slash sports. That's where you get the usual previews. Plus, we go into the games in depth on this podcast twice a week, Tuesdays and Fridays. Basically however you want all of your betting information. We've got you covered. My name again is show now Xander. Thanks for joining us here on the DRF sports podcast episode 10. That's all we got for now. But until next time, see.
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