We are joined by Matt Moore, NBA Writer for The Action Network, and discuss the NBA Futures market, division winners, ROY, MVP, title odds and so much more.
We are joined by Matt Moore, NBA Writer for The Action Network, and discuss the NBA Futures market, division winners, ROY, MVP, title odds and so much more.
Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports, but smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast. And now your host, Sheldon Alexander Ready Set that
Sheldon:this is the DRF sports podcast episode 12. Make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sheldon Alexander. Today we have a very special episode of the pod in which we're going to do a deep dive into the NBA. With the season right around the corner, we're taking an inside look at the futures markets and giving you some of our picks for the NBA title, NBA awards, player props, and so much more. Bottom line we're going in on the NBA betting market. And in case you didn't know, for more on the NBA and all other sports as well, you can head. To drf.com/sportsforallofthedetailsandinsightsasournbapageisfilledwithallofthedataanalysispreviewsbettinganglesstatsandeverythingelseyouneedtoknowtogetyousetheadingintothisnbaseasonbutasmentionedonthisepisodeofthedrfsportspodcast, we're looking at all of the futures markets with Matt Moore, MBA writer of the action network. And luckily for you, he joins a pod right about now. The NBA season is almost here. And so there's no better time to do a deep dive into the futures market. And for that to bring in some heavy hitters. So I'm happy to be joined by Matt Moore, MBA writer at The Action Network, Matt, how you doing man?
Matt:Doing well, man excited for the season. I don't know if I've been more excited for a season. Probably in five, six years. I'm I think this is gonna be an absolutely fantastic NBA season. I'm glad to be back on something resembling a normal schedule. I'm glad that we're not going to deal with as many of the disruptions knock on wood as we did last year. And I'm really excited to be on here talking about futures with you. Yeah, I mean, last year was a definitely, you know, with everything being condensed with the schedule, so many more back to back injury reports coming out. So laid on a daily basis, it'll be really good to settle into somewhat of a normal schedule, again, with not so many back to backs in disruption. So let's what we wanted to do here, we want to take a look at the futures markets, because obviously, there's so many different angles and different ways we can go with things, but a lot of opportunity to make some really good bets as we try to find value. That's what we try to do here. So I'll just go through a couple of different categories here. And I just want you to give me your kind of best take on it. And we'll just take it from there. So let's start with the division winners. Is there any kind of dogs that you think are worth a shot here? So I think right off the bat, you're getting plus money on the Hawks, and I think there's value there, the heat have looked really good in preseason. A little bit too much, honestly, because I've already bet the Hawks to win the division. I'm like, don't look so good heat. That's annoying. So I think they're one that you look at, you can get them at plus 135 or better. So you're getting a plus number on that which i You always kind of watch out for those kind of numbers. If you're taking a division bet.
Sheldon:Most division bets you're gonna find are gonna be pretty heavy, right? Like you're not going to get value on the box because it's just not worth it for the risk factor involved, even though they're so assuredly going to win that. I know there's a lot of value there. The other one that I like, besides the Hawks is the Grizzlies, you can get four to one or better on Memphis. If you're looking at it's basically saying the Mavericks are a tough bet for me across the board on futures. I just don't have a lot of confidence in Jason Kidd coaching. Coaching game by game, I don't think has that much of an impact in the NBA. I think that the drop off from a good coach a plus coach and Rick Carlisle to what I think is a negative impact coach and Jason Kidd is enough for me to be like I think that's an equalizer. I like Taylor Jenkins a lot when the Grizzlies made their offseason moves with Jonas valance units, etc. I was kind of like, you know, I don't know if they got
Matt:I don't think they got better. They probably got a little bit worse. I like JV last year, he was one of the better impact players in the team. But then you really look at the bench unit and you look at the talent and the development that they have those guys on Desmond Bane TYUS JONES, Tillman looked really good and summer league. They are making a calculated bet their young guys can step in. I think they will. I think Jama ranch shot probably stabilizes. It was rough after he came back from COVID. But then it was better as the season went on. I think that stabilizes a lot of this depends on Jaren Jackson Jr. But ultimately I think the Mavericks are at risk enough to fall and the Grizzlies are good enough I think to make a run to make plus 400 have value on the market. I totally agree through there, and Jared Jackson Jr, being a huge part for the Grizzlies, and obviously he was dealing with injuries for most of last season. So having him back and hopefully healthy will definitely help them and the Jason Kidd thing. It's so true on a night tonight basis in the NBA. Coaching is such a big, big deal on nights when gameplan sometimes you might just be game planned out of a game. Right? So totally agree with you there as we look towards the next topic here, the kind of make or miss the playoffs or win totals? Which one? Do you kind of like better in terms of those futures markets? Is it the ones that's making or missing the playoffs? Or is it just looking at the wind totals? Do you have a preference either way? Yeah, but a lot more wind totals. So especially I think the play in tournament, may put this on a chaos, because the books will offer you make playoffs that's after the play. And now if you feel confident that a team is going to get into that range, you can always hedge later, right? Like if you've got a big plus money bet on a team to make the playoffs and they're in the play. And you can just bet the other side and be able to kind of like, balance out what you're looking at, especially if you're fortunate enough to have your guy your team lineup in the seven or eight spot because they'll be favored and you get plus number on the other side. I go the other way where I tend to bet if I'm going to bet playoff futures, I tend to look for play in tournament teams. And this is a great debate, I think because you know that Windows four spots, you're saying that they're going to land inside of a four seat window. And so I've talked to betters that are like that's a really narrow outcome that you're looking for. And my response is, yeah, but in the NBA specifically, unlike a lot of the other sports, we talk about Stratus fears and tears more with the NBA teams than in any other sport where it's like, look, the Bucks aren't going to be in the plan. Like that's just not going to happen. Like we don't like the Lakers probably, again, are not going to be in the play in for a second year in a row. So we kind of have a good sense of who the top four to five teams are. And then there's a range of teams that are like 6789. And then usually like there's a 10th team is kind of hanging around. If you think a team can land in that range where they're competitive and not tanking, that's a lot of this discussion, too is either going to tank later or not. If they're going to be in that you can get a good number for to be in the play in tournament. And then you can go the other way. And you can go the the same way with you can get the mavericks and like plus 500 to miss the playoffs. I think the Mavericks are likely to be a plan team. So you can bet that if you don't want to bet on the Grizzlies division title. And then if the if the Mavericks do want to making it into the plan, and you're right, you can just go the other way and bet on the Mavericks to win and that will help you out if you're feeling a little worried about them actually making the playoffs. So there's all these kind of opportunities that that's how you should look at it. I wanted betting a lot of wind totals, because oftentimes I think the market overreacts to certain things and dictate certain things where you wind up having a lot of value on the number if you understand how the regular season in the NBA works, because it's such a different sport relative to the playoffs. And it's decided by a lot more than just talent, which I think is where most casual betters wind up going wrong. So true. I love that. So you mentioned the Mavs, are there any other teams that will be either plays or fades for you to start the season?
Sheldon:I think the biggest thing for me. You know, I talked about this on our podcast buckets the other day and the Knicks actually, I'm going to be betting the over a lot on their games to start the season because their defense should regress to start the year like they had extremely good luck last year now I've got the over on their win total. Because they're a great example of how the market overreacts their win totals 41 and a half like the market got so the bookmakers got so excited, they were expecting because everyone was it was ready to fade the next like if they come in with a line of 47 and a half. We're all going on the under we're gonna pound it down, but then they went too far. They dropped it down to 41 and a half and you're like okay, so you're telling me a playoff team last year with Kemba Walker, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett with Derrick Rose coming off the bench with Tom Thibodeau who cares so much like get so much of an effort advanced to be sub 500? No way. But to start the season I am gonna be looking for the DFS to regress I think that that probably is an area where it really tends to slide. The other one I'm probably gonna as a pelicans just because I on like, I don't know how to how to figure.
Matt:Figuring out Zions impact online is difficult. Most good players wind up being at most a three point difference in the spread. LeBron is a little bit more Katie's a little bit more. But those are the kind of ones that I think if you're looking at a player like Zion, he'll have a huge impact on the spread. But I also just think I don't think they can make the number differential big enough to account for how much he means that team and how important he is. So pelicans are team out there right off the bat, I'm probably gonna be betting against even if Zion miraculously is ready, which I do not expect them to be. It's funny how you kind of linked that
Sheldon:And pelicans and Zion and you know with all the talk Knicks fans are are kind of hoping and hoping that maybe the pelicans do have a bad year. Maybe Zion could be in their future story for another day though. Let's keep things rolling here at the points per game leader and we know that Bradley Beal obviously had a great season last year is he good enough though to do it again?
Matt:I mean, I think there's decent value on him when you look at it you can get like he's plus 300 or something three to one my favorite bet on this is actually doing that plus 100 Blazers are loaded Dame still gonna do damn stuff. He's been a top three scorer in the league over the last three seasons. The gap between him and curry is pretty narrow if you look at the guys that that the way the Warriors are constructed. I still think curry picks up a big number I would mind putting the bet down on curry but I think Dame you're going to eight to one a dame for one of the the like the top end scores, if you're looking for best value is probably a combination of bet a little bit on below at 300 and Damon at plus 800 and I think you're in a pretty good spot. I like that one. I love Dave who doesn't love gametime one of the one of my main reasons why I'm happy the NBA season is back that late night viewing when you're just flicking around flicking around and oh Blazers are down 10 Here comes down. Let's go got that wrist.
Sheldon:The assists per game leaders. I know this one kind of seems a little predictable. We know Russell Westbrook's always up there James Harden is always up there. But is there someone there that you like?
Matt:I really wanted to get wild on this. I thought that the numbers were crazy. I was of the mindset. I was like, come on, like Katie splitting time with Kyrie and James Hart and Kevin Durant. Like there's no way that Harden's going to have enough of a usage to get the assist title again. One works on Kyrie and then to have you look at it actually harden in games without
Sheldon:either of the other big two last year, he averaged 12 assists per game. So it's hard not to just be like, you should just take James Harden like you should just take James Harden at minus 120. Like he's a favorite there. However, I will say this. I did put a little bit down on two players Draymond Green plus 4000.
Matt:Yeah, Draymond is actually closer than you think like he's in that top leaderboard. And if you factor in how bad the the the Warriors offense was last year with the kind of weapons that they had, and then you set out those guys, for auto Porter Jordan pool, taking a step forward, playing more minutes and then Klay Thompson when he returns, I think Dre mons on the board, especially at 42. One that's a pretty good number, the the shorter one, guys, Trey young a plus 400. I've got a small future on Trey young for MVP amongst a no I bet a lot of MVP features, but Young's amongst them. But I also think that there's a good chance that Trey winds up just absolutely having a Mostert statistical year. And that's why I think it's probably value on him for assistant plus 400. I really love that Trey young angle, we saw the difference that was made after the coaching change happen and just a change in philosophy and style of play in terms of being more of the leader and not just coming down and jacking up shots. So that's a very interesting one. I really liked that one rebounds per game. I know this might be the most least or sorry, the least predictable market here. But do you have any insight there in terms of rebounds per game leader? As like a preface? I'm not gonna bet this I just don't think there's good value based off of how rebounding is, is very much about like philosophy and scheme like if the Hawks play more switch than Clint capela is playing up more. Capella is probably my best bet here. As you're getting in at plus 120. You're going to plus number on Capella. He's a monster like Drummond was last year and Drummond coming off the bench, not going to probably be in that conversation again. I think Capelle is probably the best value plus one Swanee. The only other one I had was Karl Anthony Towns a plus 1300. You get 1301 towns is rebounding number. He's actually fifth last season and rebounds. Here's kind of like the way to think about it. If you think the wolves are actually going to compete this season, which I do I have their win total over to one of my best bets.
Sheldon:That means that they're gonna be competitive, which means that towns is going to play more minutes and the town's plays more minutes, he's going to get more boards. So I think that combined with how they're they're playing more aggressively defensively opens up a lot for guys to be further up the floor trying to play passing lanes and towns getting a lot of rebounds. So I like towns at plus 1300 If I had to bet it but I'm not gonna bet this one.
Matt:No, that's interesting. I like that. 123 point leaders per game obviously Steph Curry the odds on favorite. I know it's tough to go against Steph. But is there a long shot here? No, there's not man like here's the thing. You can get stiff still at minus 175 and less than two to one. And if you've been listening like all these numbers, I'm saying or you're getting good value with a plus number A plus number A plus number. This is one where the favorite is still
Sheldon:Short like this is still too short. This should be like minus 300. Honestly, there's just no chance the Warriors are shooting more threes in preseason. He's on pace for 15 attempts per 36, which is how many minutes he averages. There's no comparison here. The only other guy I will even remotely Think about if you just want to hedge against a step injury is probably Buddy Hield a heel there's a guy that nobody really notices hits a ton of threes just volume shooting, Buddy Hield nails a ton of them. You get him a plus number. I think Buddy Hield is probably the only other one I would bet here but I've already bet Steph Curry have five different books at minus 175 delete the league in threes. And hopefully you know if you're if you have that, buddy, he'll take it maybe there's a Ben Simmons trade there and some more free flowing threes in Philly for him, hopefully, hopefully, but I just like the chaos of the NBA. So that's what I'm rooting for. Gotcha. How about the Rookie of the Year market and I'm focused in on the Jalen versus Jalen, you know, thinking that maybe there's something there, but there's actually a lot of interesting names here. Even if you think of Scotty Barnes might be getting some pub here. A lot of different guys that could come up. Who do you like in terms of Rookie of the Year market? I bet Jalen green I bet him in at summer league. I bet him again in the offseason I bet him before his first preseason game. The numbers haven't been awesome, but I think as this kid settles in the Jalen just gonna go up huge numbers. I just I think he's we're going to be it's going to be you know, early November and it'll be a Friday night and one of the headlines is gonna be Jalen green goes for 37 points nine assists in a rockets lost by 15. But still he'll he'll be really good in terms of the actual production. The other one I have I have a bet on is I got Josh gidea 32 one and that's just like an absurd number for how good good he is loved him not playing in preseason, I think hit him and the thunder being very secretive and not really hyping guys. I know some folks in the thunder Oregon the conversation has been very much like folks aren't aren't ready for how good he is. I'll say this, I, I've looked to Scotty Barnes, I've had it in my in my bet slip like five times and haven't pulled the trigger.
Unknown:I'm going to try and resist to see how the beginning of the season goes for the rafters. But boy, is he tempting just in terms of the problem, I think with Barnes is just he's gonna be really high impact, and everyone's gonna think that he's a really good player. But this award is always decided by stats, like it's just a stats award. And I don't know that he's gonna get of usage next to annovi, next VanVleet. And then especially if siakam were to come back at some point, that'll take some possessions away from Barnes as well. So I'm going to be looking, I'll tell you this, if it comes out in that first week, and he's Hi, I'm probably going to go ahead and react early and Add bonds to my portfolio.
Sheldon:Yes, you're totally right, though about the fact that it normally ends up going to just whoever the rookie is on the worst team that can take whatever shot he wants, right to get to that 20 point per game mark, Defensive Player of the Year. This one is always tough, I find because I feel so much of it is narrative driven, more so than you know, just stats in the opposite way, then, you know, the Rookie of the Year Award, or maybe I could be wrong here but Defensive Player of the Year. What do you think? Is there a number that stands out to you? Because I'm looking at Diebold thinking like that's a really nice number.
Unknown:It's funny, you mentioned the narrative thing. Instead of the stats, it's shift because it used to be all stats like Marcus can be one once when then Doug has had like the worst the bottom five defense in the league. And everyone was like, but you know, this was like right before the advanced metrics, but now this is why go bear is such a heavy favorite every year. Look, I think Go Bears still probably has value just because also this to the voters don't want to do the work on on this. Like, it's you can go back and you can be like, Oh, I saw that Jalen green game and he was really good. And oh, he's averaging 25. Okay, I'm gonna pick Jalen green, like he was gonna impress me most. It's a really analyzed defense. Like you have to do so much work both in terms of metrics and watching film and talking to like coaches to figure out it's a lot of work and they have so many other things that they have to do on this ballot, right, like all NBA and most improved and all these type of things. So I think that there's kind of a default to Rudy. I like that. I will pick a lot. I actually, before everything kind of went the way it did. I bet Ben Simmons because I last year, too. I still think Ben Simmons is the best defensive player in the league. He gets traded. I love that bet. I still think that Ben Simmons is like the most impactful defender in the NBA. I like the final possession. You're getting him with the big number. Here's the other name I'll give you is Myles Turner, I thought was actually the best defensive player last year. He gets the block stats which will stand out to casual voters. His defensive metrics are good which will stand out there's a chance that he gets traded which will increase his minutes and position. If he gets dealt. They break up so bonuses him so I think that helps. And also the bonus quite honestly kind of a drag on his defensive numbers. And you're getting Turner at seven to one. So for me I think Myles Turner he didn't play enough last year he got hurt. IV Myles Turner has like the best value on the board at seven to one but you probably if you're going to do this you bet on go bear at some degree, just because he's such an easy guy for everyone to vote for and call today.
Sheldon:No, that's totally fair to a category that, you know, might feel like it's kind of tough, right? Because it's tough that you get the same names every year, year in year out and maybe someone else might be a little different. We hope so. Is there a way to find a sleeper in terms of the six Man of the Year Award
Unknown:my sleeper sleeper the deepest of sleepers my comatose. Pick is the Anthony Melton. So I just think the Grizzlies bench is going to absolutely tear it up. I think melon takes a step forward. Desmond vane quite honestly might be a good bet here too, because they've just they seem to have a lot invested in him. And Bane is a three point shooter that they had working on ball in summer league, that's another good option there. My best play on this is the same I have a position on the same player for six man and most improved because I don't know if he's going to start too many games. You know, I'm going to say here, it's Jordan pool. So if the hope for me on six man is that the Warriors elect, if they look at the bench and go, our bench is just dying, like we just don't have enough scoring. And so then they start curry and Wigan and Porter and dream on and Looney they go bigger, and then pull comes off the bench and still plays a ton with starters and closes with the death lineup and all that and then pull just absolutely rackets up. For me, he's like a no brainer, I've just his numbers, he fit the profile of the guys that you would expect to make a leap into the 19 points per game, which is what I'm looking for, for six Man of the Year candidates. I'm hoping I'm going to try and actually change this by writing about a lot this season. I'm hoping this is the year, the voting bloc decides to do a little bit more work and not just give it to who jacks up the most shots off the bench. But they actually look at impact. And from that. Yeah, and from that perspective, I think Patty Mills may have a really good shot at this because he's gonna get a lot of minutes, especially with Kyrie missing missing out. He's been the most impactful players for the Spurs for years. But nobody noticed because it's the Spurs. He's efficient. He shoots well, I think Mills has good value there. You can get him a big plus number as well. Jordan Poole and Patty mills are probably my two best bets for six months of the year.
Sheldon:I like that you mentioned Jordan pool, also for your most improved player of the year. So is there someone else other than Jordan pool you're looking at?
Unknown:Here is my best advice for you on most improved player. Don't bet it now. Wait until the first All Star returns come out. And then bet it based off of whoever was not an all star before that is on the ballot this year. Zack Levine is a good pick. If you want to try and project this out. He's actually 12 the one and if you think like Yeah, but he was good last year, there's a delayed effect oftentimes with voters where they won't reward a guy one year and then the year after there'll be like, it's basically rewarding them for the two years of improvement. You think the bulls are gonna be good, which I do. Levine is the obvious candidate to read most of the benefit from that. And so that's like the best advice is if you look at the past winners, Julius Randle all star right all star team unexpectedly making a playoff team, the last four years has been an all star player. This is a big shift from where it used to be. Historically, it was basically a guy that was nothing and then wound up being coming like a rotation player and CJ McCollum was the last guy to do that. But Brandon Ingram is another guy Pascale siakam. These guys that are rotation players that become all star levels for borderline playoff teams or contenders. Those the guys first time all stars, those the ones at Target, wait until those first returns come out. And then make a pick based off of that.
Sheldon:No, I really liked that insight there on the most improved player just thinking of a different way to go at it. I like that waiting a little bit waiting a little bit seeing what the narrative might be building. I like that. Another category that I'm kind of confused on because there's a bunch of different ways this could go is the coach of the year. I know obviously, the nets and Steve Nash, that kind of seems might be a little easy if we think that the nets are going to be healthy. And with or without Kyrie they still should be a really, really good team. But is there kind of a narrative that Nash doesn't do? Nash doesn't actually do much like, I don't know, I'm interested in your take on the Coach of the Year aspect, because I normally look at these things from like, not the value side of it, right? Like that's why I need the help. That's why I need the insight I call on the experts to help me out here.
Unknown:Yeah, I think Coach of the Year is is one where a big a big deciding factor for the voters I've talked to is they talk to other coaches and they say Who do you think has done a good a good job now last last couple years it's been different from the
Sheldon:The person that the coaches have actually voted for.
Matt:There's been a little bit of a trend towards, did your team make a big leap? Like was your team thought to be?
Sheldon:Okay 500 ish and then wound up being like a 4849 which that's only like a seven one differential, but it's a big deal. I think that the voters again, we look back to the next last year and we have this example of no one really thought the next we're gonna be good and then they were a playoff team. For that reason, I like Billy Donovan, a lot of 10 to one. Billy Donovan is again, I've described the bowls of the season as a Rorschach test. You're gonna look at them and everybody's gonna see something different. You're either gonna see a team with no good defenders outside of maybe Lonzo ball and Otto Porter, or I'm sorry, Patrick Williams. And then or you're gonna see like, okay, they did a lot of they got their loaded on offense. Levine was great last year, Billy Donovan seems this is my take Billy Dom, his team's historically are better defensively than they should be. So if you think the bulls are gonna be good, then Billy Donovan I think is a really easy pick. He's well liked by his fellow coaches, this is secretly kind of a big thing. If you're not somebody that the coaches like, you're gonna get a lot of negative comments to the voters. He's good with the media, which I think is also another thing. Another name to look at, I think because these these odds are pretty long. Erik Spoelstra at plus 950 is probably a pretty good one, if you if I'm wrong on the Hawks, and the heat are awesome. And they're just like that they jump into that top three conversation with an F in the box, then I've exposed her gets his credit, even with the additional Kyle Lowry. I think he gets credit because everyone acknowledges how good of a coach Bo is. My thing with Nash is just look if there's been a historically kind of a bent against super teams by the voters like this is why Katie and Steph didn't get MVP consideration during their run. LeBron won MVP twice with the heat. But that was because like, literally, you could not argue with it. Like there was no one else that you were going to vote for for MVP in those seasons, because LeBron was that dominant.
Matt:I think this year, it's more difficult because it's a better bet with the Kyrie thing. Because if Kyrie misses the whole year now, it's like, he kept them together. He, you know, he made the most they've got all this young talent with Dion Sharpe and Cam Thomas. And like, he got the young guys who contribute and manage the rotations. And there was injuries and uncles, you know, they're gonna have injuries and all these types of things, and they still wound up in the top seat. If anything, that's just blow everybody away. There's probably some value on that, because he's still a lot. He's still long and plus 100. Yeah, I just wind up believing that there will be kind of this resistance from voters and being like, Yeah, but he had hardened. And Katie, like, at some level, he's just got, he's just got to have those three at least. And if Kyrie, comes back, it gets even easier. Yeah. The biggest award that I always find is the most fun because the narrative switches maybe five times throughout the season, and especially last year was back and forth as the MVP. And I remember coming into last season, there was so much talk about this is the year Luke is gonna win MVP. And that seemed to be kind of a popular pick, heading into last season. Obviously, that didn't really work out. Are people here doing this? Again, we're getting the Luka talk for MVP. And that's kind of where the value sits. You know, some of the value is I'll say this, like, favorite on the board when opened, and he's still the favorite. And I'll just say like, I don't agree with that line. Like I do not agree that he should be the favorite. It helps that he's not fat. Going into camp. That's helpful. That's good. I can't believe that a guy coached by Jason Kidd and I want to go this I'm going heavy on against Jason Kidd here, but I can't believe that guy. He's gonna need to like you have to win at least 50 games and even then, like most years and normal season you need to win. 55 Yogesh won it with a little less because yoke like ever MB got hurt. Yogesh was deserving. Yeah, but I'll say this, like the voters did not want to give it to Nicola Yogesh. They ran out of options, like they couldn't justify giving it to curry for a playing Team. If the warriors had been even like the six seed I think curry might have won that thing. If mbeadh stays healthy and B wins it. I think Nicola Yogesh was deserving. I wrote in January to bet on Nicola Yogesh, when he was a huge plus number, because I was like, Look, they're gonna get better, and his numbers are insane.
Sheldon:For me the value this is how I bet MVP, more than anything else, I write more about it. I've written about it. I write an average, like 20,000 words a year on this race, like it's the thing I work on more than anything else. I bet it in preseason, and then I'll bet it I'll build my position throughout the regular season. You will have indicators after this first month. It's very rare that nobody from that was good in the first month. And everyone's like, Oh, it's too early to talk about MVP is the first month now those games count to like this gains in the first month of the season count the same as the end. And it sets a standard for what the voters compare to. I actually did a straw poll over action network I asked 20 likely voters about what their ideas for for the top three people that they will be in consideration come April. The biggest answers were Kevin Durant that he got the most votes which was surprising to me. Yawn Hassan and Compo and then Luca dodge. That should be the order Kevin Durant should be the favorite yawn, Asana and Compo should be right behind him and then Luca dodge and some other people. The best bet on the board unequivocably, you can still get them at plus 100 is Yan, Hassan and Compo. There is no question this is the best bet on the board. He doesn't have the playoff failures dragging over room where voters are like, I don't want to look stupid when he flames out in the second round. He's the defending champion that just dropped 50 in the final game to win the title. He plays every night. He's a monster, he racks up numbers. He's a defensive player of the year candidate. There's no qualms about it. And he doesn't play on the super team like Katie does to where you're like, Yeah, but Harden was really good to those kinds of things. I have bet Katie just based off of both that and the fact that I've talked to the books, and there's a significant amount of betting action coming in on Katie. The other player, I think that has great value is Steph Curry plus 900. If you think the Warriors are going to be awesome, which I do, then curry is going to be in that conversation. He's always amongst the most impactful in terms of plus minus two, the analysts that are in the voter bloc for MVP are gonna vote for him. He is a swell guy. That's a great interviewer who's just extremely nice. So the reporters and TV heads are going to vote for him. He's already been MVP. So he's established he doesn't have that going against him. He's an all time greats, which means that you don't have this stuff like last year with Nick right going like are we gonna look back and Nicola Yogesh is the worst MVP, blah, blah, blah. Courage checks every single box for me, I split the voting bloc of 100 voters into a couple of buckets, like I just talked about, curry checks the boxes on all of them. It's curry and Yanis, I think have the absolutely the best value for MVP. But I will be betting this month by month as it goes along. And I'll tell you it by March, you're gonna know who's gonna win it. And it's never close. Whoever wants a winning MVP gets on average 92% of the available vote total. It's even in 2017 with Westbrook and harden, everyone winds up going one direction. So you're going to be able to still get value all the way I think until the all star break. I love that and the Part Two about people like Yanis and Steph, that's a huge part of it. We feel like we know these guys, we root for them, whether you're the media, whether you're the fan, however it is you'd like those guys. So NBA, especially MVP feels a huge narrative thing. NBA title, though, we know that the Bucs are the champs, the nets and Lakers are the super teams getting all the hype. Those are the teams probably at the world, the top three, but who's a fourth team that could get into that mix and maybe get us a little value here. In terms of NBA title features. I only have two bets. I have two bets on title, which is less than I usually do.
Matt:The Lakers with Ross is not one of them. But you know that's the thing is like I I did this thing where I studied if you just bet the Lakers every single season if every single season, okay, since 2000. You just put money on the Los Angeles Lakers to win the title, you would be up significantly, you would be up significantly in terms of of your profit. So the Lakers are always a good bet. i The nets look like this juggernaut. I think we're doing stuff back in August. And there's a title favorite. Now, I don't know.
Sheldon:I'm worried about the defense. Like, I keep saying this over and over again. In order for you to believe the nets will be able to win a title you have to say to yourself, Blake Griffin is going to have to be able to be the key defender in the starting unit.
Matt:I can't do that. I just can't do that. And eventually I do think defense matters. Because the there's a lot of things about that box net series that people take it very face value if you dig in. There's some details that start to creep through. The Bucs underperformed offensively and they still wound up getting a 112 offensive rating versus a very bad nets defense despite all of that, and they their defense was able to slow down the nets. That's where like the injuries come into play. But I think that that's probably closer. I don't want to bet the nets I don't want at the box because I don't want to bet against the nets. But in the West I think there's some value you get the Warriors a plus 1100.
Sheldon:The biggest one that I have is I bet the Denver Nuggets in preseason back in the summer at plus 20 525 to one look. The five games in which they were healthy before Jamal Murray's injury. That team was a juggernaut. After the Aaron Gordon trade and everyone kind of goes like Aaron Gordon
Matt:Really, it's not about Aaron Gordon. It's about when Aaron Gordon becomes your fourth best player and Michael Porter Jr. is your third best player and Will Barton is your fifth best player. It's when you move everybody down a slot that it's like okay, this ties the room together. You look at that starting in and you're like okay, but we need like a wing defender. That's where Aaron Gordon comes in. Okay, but we need rebounding Michael Porter Jr. They're able to do so much and then the cola yoga, just overall impact. We've seen this team the nuggets, be great in the playoffs. Not every team is built for the playoffs, Utah Jazz, but the nuggets are very much built for the playoffs. They're mentally tough. They're versatile in terms of how they can solve answers. They've outlasted teams multiple times they should have won that blazer series they did they should know when the chest series down three one they did they shouldn't want to upper series down three one they did this team's playoff tested, and they're actually very good in the postseason. Michael Malone is an excellent coach. I like them and then look the Warriors if the Lakers aren't dominant, I look to the warriors as that's going to be the team that everyone's gonna be like the Warriors are back capital B, capital A capital c capital K back. And maybe that's that's wishing for the return to those those pre KT years. But I love Otto Porter, I think the defense is going to be better. I think they figured out which of their young guys like want to sconto Anderson can help them. I trust Steve Kerr, I trust Steph Curry I saw the the Warriors a plus 1100 Or a sneaky good bet to win the title. And you can always get a better number, a good number, at least on the Lakers and nets in the regular season too. And because it's been so long, I feel like we're gonna forget how good Klay Thompson was. You know, like, it's been so long since we've seen him play and just understand what he then means to Steph, and how he elevates Steph just being in the lineup and being the elite shooter that he is, and even Draymond as well. So that'll be super interesting. I love that warriors pick. But Matt, all you've done is got me super excited for this NBA season, even more so than I thought was possible. So I really appreciate you joining me on the pod. But with such great information, where can people find you online if they want to get more from me? First things first, download the action network app, if you're going to bet this is the absolute best way to do it. You can follow me on Twitter at HB basketball. That's where I post all my content. Um, I've been told them a lot to follow. But there's a lot of good content there as well check me out on Twitter at HB basketball. Really appreciate it. Matt. Thanks for joining me, man. Let's do it again soon. Thanks for having me.
Sheldon:Thanks to Matt for coming on the pod. And if you want to follow me online, you can do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. But for more from this brand new project for DRF sports, you can head to drf.com/sportsif you're not familiar with the letters DRF. Let me break it down. Daily racing form has been around for over 100 years giving you all of the horse racing information, data and analysis but now taken over the entire sports world. So if you want coverage on every single football game, as well as the NBA MLB and so much more, again had. To drf.com/sportsforallthedetailsinsightsandeverythingelseasasitehasallthedataoneverygameincludingoffensiveanddefensivestatsbeddingangleslinemovementskeyinjuriesheadtoheadrecordsandteamstatsthedrfdataiswhatpowersourpowertrendssoifyouwanttoseewhichtrendsouranalystshaveselectedfollowusoninstagramandontwitterbutifyouwantaccesstotherawdatagotodrf.com/sports, that's where you'll find the usual previews. Plus we go in depth into all the games on this podcast twice a week, Tuesdays and Fridays. Sometimes we even mix in a little something special every once in a while. But however you want your betting information, we've got you covered. That's all I got for you for now. But until next time, see.
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