We've got our best bets, Survivor Picks and gambling trends for the weekend's biggest matchups in both the NCAA and NFL.
We've got our best bets, Survivor Picks and gambling trends for the weekend's biggest matchups in both the NCAA and NFL.
Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready Set that
Sheldon:this is the DRS sports podcast episode 13. Make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sheldon Alexander. A reminder we do this twice a week on Tuesdays we recap the week that was and on Fridays it's the pics pod. Week Six of the NFL season got underway with one of the toughest losses I've had in a while with the Bucs failing to cover the seven points despite dominating the entire game. That's all right, not bitter. We just stay to what we know. And what we know is for the best info that you need. You got to check out DRF comm slash sports because that's where you can get all of the details and insights including power trends, line movements, team stats and even more betting angles, including our guy Scott grumblings, weekly six pack in both the NFL and NCAA. So make sure you check us out DRF comm slash sports, that's where you need to be every day for our game previews. plus of course, we go in depth on this podcast. Recently we had a chance to do an NBA betting season preview where you get all the insight you need into MVP bets for future trends who's gonna win the NBA title Coach of the Year all that and so much more. Basically however you want your betting information we've got you covered DRF comm slash sports but as mentioned on today's show, it's the pics pod and a lot of people had a rough week last week but somehow I managed to have a winning week just barely. And so my guide Matt Russell is back to help me stay the course and he joins me right about now.
Matt:I can't lie as someone who was on bucks minus seven last night I'm still a little rattled here so I'm happy to be joined by my guy Matt Russell to kind of help me through this and explain some of this to me but how are you doing before I get into this year because I'm fired up already? Man I'm fantastic Listen, we talked about it on Tuesday I didn't love this game right we can't force bets if we don't absolutely have to and we talked about okay well to get to seven and a half then we have to start really having a conversation about the eagles and at no point was a necessarily looking to bet on the bucks but man like watching that game and go and you know I've experienced every one of these right like just about every one of these sorts of games like just a full on you know, I guess I don't know that I love calling it a bad beat because you know the strategy was sound there was still plenty of time left in the game and you know, you do what you can to sort of come back in a game you know, I would be mad at the the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for taking the air out of the ball if you will. But I know I just I feel bad, right? But like all you can do is laugh because you look at that line and not that the line was necessarily suspect but like, you go Okay, like Philly, you know, plus seven, like I don't love it, you know, I'm certainly not laying over a touchdown, or expecting Tampa to win by more than a touchdown on the road, you know, not against anybody with a pulse. And then like something like that happens you're just like, man, I couldn't be happier with not being involved in that game even though my lien right was to the Eagles if we could get a little bit extra value on it. And of course, then you watch the the line from when we spoke, it goes down to six and a half in a lot of places. And you just go like, you know, and again, I'm like, Well, I guess I'm probably onto something wanting or not honestly wanting to but like leaning towards the Eagles. And you know, as it goes to six and a half and then just for it to fall that way where it lands on six, and you just go like the NFL man, like the NFL. Like as much as everybody wants to think that there is a you know, obvious side on all these different matchups that we'll get into this weekend and forever going forward. There just isn't like the spreads are really good like that. Again, we always talk about the gravitational pull to a tie right with teams doing whatever they can to come back. And the Favorites being just fine with winning the game. Like that's just how it works. So like when people complain about it, I just kind of go like, that's just how it works, right? Like it's so hard to blow a team out and like teams don't even really want to blow teams out. They just want to get out of there with a whim. But here's the here's my thing. And I understand all that and we've been having these quote unquote therapy sessions for a few years here. Yeah, but I'm looking at that game and I'm saying hey, bucks minus seven. I know it's not so much I've learned about you know, accepting the fact that okay you lost the bet. But I feel like I was okay on the right side like I'm not mad at me making that bet on the Bucks minus seven. Here we are bucks dominate that game they're up 28 to seven late, the Eagles are out here going for to win they are down 14. And you know, some people might not really understand what's going on there. So that's one thing. We've seen the Tampa Bay side of things combined with Bruce Arians risk it for the biscuit so they're out you're trying to score points all the time. And then we're seeing them kind of just slow things down, up six. All of these things seem so weird. And it's just like, how is this not a cover for the bucks? That's what I'm saying here. So let's go on.
Sheldon:Yeah, like conversion. Can we explain that to people? Yeah, I mean, I'd like to thank and listen, I'm always surprised when I you know, read different comments or messages that I get of, you know, football handicapping. And, you know, sometimes I think we're all gonna get educated to the point where, you know, where the edge is going to be gone. And then I get these messages. I'm like, No, we still have a ways to go right what I'm saying. So, I, we've been on this Crusade for what, four or five years, I think I remember like an Eli Manning, or certainly a giants game on Monday night. Like I think Odell Beckham Jr. was involved. It was in Atlanta. And it was like the first time on primetime that a team that was down 14 went for two. And the obvious thing is right, there's a 50% chance sort of mathematically, if you will, that you're going to get the two point conversion. And if you're down 14, you have two chances to get that two point conversion. So if you don't get it, it sucks, right? But again, mathematically, in theory, you would get the second one, just based on the premise of the thing, but like, it's just based on the idea that everybody thinks that if you get to overtime, you are going to win the game, right? And then all we need to do is get to overtime, and we're fine. So if you're down 14, no, getting to overtime is not good enough, because you are then still, in a lot of ways a literal coin flip away from losing, right? It is a 5050 proposition once you get to overtime. So why add that into your you know, come back when probability when you can try to get it down to six, right? Where you can get it down to a point where that second touchdown, if that happens, just requires the extra point. Now listen, there's no guarantee of that extra point being made on that second round. But it was days Exactly. Guess what, there's no guarantee of that extra point being made on this touchdown, right? That first touchdown that you make, right? So it isn't a 100% or 98% probability of you making it. So all of that is to say, right, they're just removing the extra coin flip element of overtime in the effort to come back. Right. So like, it is the right decision, you are taking out that divide by two in the formula, if you will. And and I think we're getting to the point where it's not all that surprising, but it doesn't help when, like national analysts who again, unfortunately maybe only catch one or two games a week and don't necessarily have this circumstance come up in their lives. When they go I don't know if we should be doing this. It's like no, it's absolutely and always has been the right move. Right? And I'm sorry, like, it's difficult for people who are, you know, maybe flunked out of high school math class to necessarily understand it, but it just is, right? So that's the situation again, that's why eight is becoming a more important number in the NFL, right? We always you know, three and seven. That was always the big talk right now we talked about six when it comes to overtime. And how often how much more frequently a team wins by six in overtime than they used to right used to just go down and kick a field going it was done. And so six, eight, like these are all really important numbers. And they're really important numbers for teases right we always talk now about like the two and a half point spread bump that thing up to eight and a half because then you don't care if the guy is making or missing the two point conversion In fact, he kind of rather prefer you know, they go for it there because you don't know you know, you don't you have less of a chance of finding yourself in overtime or some other weird stuff happening. So, you know, the day like it's the right decision, nothing untoward happened, right? Like there was no reason for the Bucs to kick the field goal late versus take knees like that doesn't make any sense. We've just watched again, every kick getting missed last week, who was to say like that was going to be a guarantee and like the the total hinges on that kick, and a spread would have hinged on that kick and all of that sort of thing. And so that and that's why we watch man like because it just drags us in and like you got to turn that game off at 28 to seven, you know, or just gone for a walk because maybe you are on the Eagles. And then you come back an hour later and you're just like, how did we get here? And like yeah, the Eagles were never really a threat to win the game. But that's what the coin spreads for man. That's what the point spreads for. All of these games effectively come down
Matt:Kind of a coin flip play. And in this case it was that two point conversion, right? It's a 5050 proposition. However we got there, right, there's always one play that's going to swing it one way or another. And that's why we love it and sometimes hate it.
Sheldon:Well, that's why we're here right and that's why I love that we try to do on this podcast where sometimes we can allow for the explanation to sometimes Oh gee betters, that know exactly what you're talking about, because they're paying attention to the lines and have been for a while, but also take some time to explain to maybe the new people who are just dipping their toe in and they're sitting there listening to, as you mentioned, the National broadcasts, which sometimes those dudes are not really talking along the same lines as us, right. So we try to bridge that gap here as we can. And as we continue to do so looking at the rest of the lines here from the NFL, because I'm going to try to go through the lines as always giving my lien on which side or the next map comes in giving as I like to say some information and education on where the line is where it's going. And you know, that's what we try to do here. So let's start with another London game which Yeah, just continues to be you know, sending out the hits to London. You got the one in four dolphins taking on the ocean five Jags. Wow, dolphins are three point favorites and this game. Yeah, I mean, I'm just taking the points. I'm being just blatantly honest. I'm not even gonna try to break it down even more. I'll leave that to the professional here.
Matt:These two trash teams cool. I'm not gonna watch this game. I'm gonna wake up maybe it'll be on in the background or something, but I'm not dedicating time to these trash teams. In the morning, I feel bad for London. Yeah, I wish it was as simple as just like half paying attention to it. But you're right, right, like it's a mandatory bet. Frankly, it's not any different than Atlanta and New York and that didn't work out but like you know, I'd make that bet a bunch of different times right I would expect a little bit of better effort you know, in the morning like speaking of rolling out of bed right from the Jets. And again, we don't know we don't know maybe Miami is more prepared. Maybe Jacksonville is more prepared and I think normally we would sort of rely on the concept of like Brian Flores like we like him more as a coach than we do Urban Meyer because we like literally everybody as a coach more than we like Urban Meyer not to take anything away from Brian Flores necessarily but that team's Damien Harris fumble away from Owen five and if we're being honest here probably the Jacksonville Jaguars are you know a fourth in one at the goal line conversion against the Bengals at the end of that first half from going up 21 nothing and probably winning that game right yeah as much as you know they are the Jags you know having a three touchdown lead is a lot bigger deal than a two touchdown lead and so we could be talking about the oh and five dolphins against the one in four bangles right and again, excuse me against the one for Jags and so you know it wasn't it's funny that you just sort of go like yeah, these two teams are trash and all that sort of thing it's like that's a really strong summation for a bunch of other metrics that I could like start slinging at you right like we can get into yards for play on offense and defense and how Miami is worse than Jacksonville in both of those categories especially lately right and this is a What have you done for me lately league right so Jacksonville comes in here and their offense is actually I don't want to use the word cooking but like they're certainly like dicing some stuff, right? Like oops, yeah, like they're preheating the oven here a little bit James Robinson's now like officially on the team like he's officially involved in the offense. Urban Meyer has gotten a text late night from James Robinson saying you up and he's like, oh James Robinson's in the mix. Oh, maybe I should use him and they are right he's averaging over 100 yards per game over these last three games and so once they start running the offense through him now they're clicking at an over 6.0 yards per play clip here right and they actually out yards for played if you will, Tennessee last week now they got blown out so you look at the scoreboard and again we talked about these one o'clock Sunday games where like maybe we're not super locked in to certain matchups and so you weren't super locked in to Jags and Titans and that's the game that could have gone a bunch of different ways you know better for the Jags including not having basically on the first play of the game. A dubious fumble being returned for a touchdown and have them go down seven nothing immediately Of course some goal line issues yet again for the Jags on offense there so all that is to say, Yeah, like you have to take the points everybody did it's the same. It's so funny. It's the same situation as last week where it was opened at three and a half. Everybody sat around looked at each other and we're like why is this three and a half? They bet the Jags and now it's down to three right? Like it isn't that complicated. We all just were like we'll take the hook on this situation right? So you know
Sheldon:I wrote about it this week like I feel like we could flash forward to a joke that we're going to make like three weeks from now about how the Jags are still looking for their first win in over a year on North American soil because I think they win this game this weekend oh I don't care that like to have might be back and all that sort of like we've gone over this and as much as Jacoby rosette has been you know not particularly great. I don't think anything changes if two eight was in the lineup the last three weeks or is coming back this week because i don't know i don't think that there's any difference between the two teams and again another sort of thing where you listen to people sort of shoot messages at you and you're like, you people really think to a terrible Viola is better than Trevor Lawrence at this point now not that this is you know, they're not playing darts. Right. It's not a one on one competition. But like Trevor Lawrence is a better quarterback than two and it had was when he was at college and and just is a better prospects going forward. And the dolphins would absolutely trade to for Trevor Lawrence tomorrow. Sorry, that's just facts. Pay to you know, hate to break that to everybody. So, right now, the dolphins don't have even as good of a weapon as the Jags do when we talk about the guys that they have on the team. Marvin Jones love it, because she knows and James Robinson so whether it's looking at the two teams from a talent standpoint, you know, the weaponry, etc, etc. Or just the metrics, the yards per play stuff. Jacksonville might be the better team here. And I know that's kind of a bummer for everybody who thought we were gonna have a better version of this dolphins team. But that's a team that relies on turning you over defensively. Right? There was a lot of kind of buddhu II type winds. And we would brush that off last year as like, Well, you know, the defense man the defense like their tournament, you know, returning guys over getting scores on defense. Well, what happens if that dries up? Well, guess what? We're seeing what happens if that dries up. And that's you know, it wouldn't be Oh in five except for they got the turnover in week one against the Patriots. And listen, I'm not slagging the dolphins for that we had the dolphins in that game. We had the dolphins money line. Um, you know, I'll be forever grateful to the dolphins for getting that FOMO but we're talking about predictive stuff here, right? We're, we're talking about going forward and trying to figure out what these teams are about and what the quality level is for these teams and there's nothing nothing that says that the dolphins from a predictive standpoint are a team that we should be backing now. They might win by three touchdowns, they might pick Trevor Lawrence off three times. They might get those turnovers, right they might get things cooking, and listen, it's Urban Meyer it's London who knows what trouble that guy might get into or how prepared the Jacksonville Jaguars might be and we might see that in the first half and be bummed out about it. But again like we can't make those predictions we can't just assume that one team is going to be more prepared over another team especially when you know again like you said both teams pretty garbage yeah and i think you know this was almost a perfect game to follow up our conversation on the Thursday nighter because focus is more so trying to be on the correct side of things of course you could be out here and Jacoby perset or two comes out and bombs like five touchdowns cool find me the person that was really going to predict that and sit on that side that's more so what we're talking about here and as we try to continue to remain on the correct side of things you mentioned moving forward and let's move forward with some better teams as in the five no Cardinals at the three into Browns the Browns are favored by three and a half points and I like the Browns to win this game. That's my early lean but the hook has me a little nervous here and I think that's what the hook is meant to do here
Matt:I like I really like the Browns
Sheldon:yeah i mean that's that's the thing but like again How did we get there right how do we get to this half point and it started two and a half and you know I can I can speak for experience we jumped on that two and a half right as a society as a sort of shark betting society if you will. We jumped on that two and a half earlier in the week we saw it go to three right the contest line in Las Vegas is three and now we see it up to three and a half on Thursday once limits went up right and so again how does that look from a you know betting industry standpoint? Well first of all, it looks like two and a half was way too low fine we get to three limits you know get increased people go well we're not going to see two and a half ever again. And it's then becomes a race to get to minus three and they get to minus three and that sends it up over three and a half and part of that is news right so like there's some COVID issues potentially with the Cardinals. Chandler Jones isn't going to be playing this weekend there's AllPro potential center for the Cardinals isn't going to play right so like less flashy guys if you will, obviously if some current Kyler Murray injury potential there as well, right he's doing he's doing the arm twist shake thingy that late in that game against San Francisco. And by the way, fundamentally, Cleveland's better football team than the Arizona Cardinals and so you know, it
Matt:FLAC Dennis, you know, this has turned into an I get flack sci fi themed episode. But like I get flack for not bumping the Cardinals up higher in my ratings. And if you want to go just by schedule, and by and by record, that's what the standings are for. Right? You can click on espn.com and go straight to the standings, and you can do the math yourself that yes, the Cardinals are undefeated, is that predictive of anything going forward? Absolutely not. And at this rate of the just excitement over the Cardinals, I would say that they're probably not going to finish above 500 against the spread the rest of the season, because that's where we're at with just the excitement, the overrated ness, again, relative to the marketplace, they might finish 11 and six, they might finish 12 and five, but again, I'm telling you, I don't think they're finishing above the spread above 500 the rest of the way against the spread. That being said, right, we have seen the correction. And if these things don't take that long in the NFL market, right, when it's not like you get five straight weeks of a team being overrated, that stuff gets sort of, you know, pounded out of the line. And that's what we saw this week, right, where two and a half was just absolute gold. Now again, stuff might happen. You never know. We're expecting some weather little you know, heavy wind Cleveland Lake Erie type situation this week, who do you think that favors? It's obviously Cleveland, right? So everything's going Cleveland's way here when it comes to situation. And just a fervor over the Cardinals here. I think it's just it's just way too much. And that's going to be a theme for this week. You know, spoiler alert, but that's going to be a theme because there's a fervor over a lot of teams. And again, every one of them is deserved. And not that surprising, right? This isn't like Carolina going through you know, it's really just like, Alright, we need to just ever need to calm down about the standings and like these hot teams coming in. Because again, what's the motto, right? Nobody's as good as last week, nobody's as bad as they looked last week. So yeah, this one is one of my favorite plays. Here. I grabbed the two and a half. I certainly grabbed the three. Obviously once we get into three and a half, that's a little dicey. But I will say I did have this thought this week. And I never have this thought because I just I'm not wired that way. I did wonder myself like what's the best like all spread Cleveland Browns number that I can get like a minus seven and a half for, for a really good price like a minus 10 for a really good price. Because I think there's a very real possibility here that Cleveland wins this one big this weekend. I love it. So don't be as nervous about the hook. I love that. And that's exactly again, what we tried to do here, explain where the line was, where it's going and where it's at now trying to figure that all out because it helps me go forward and think you know what? I'm okay. I'm confident in taking Cleveland now. And that's all we want to do. Another team I'm also very confident in is a foreign one chargers at the four and one ravens ravens are at home and favored by two and a half points. And somehow these ravens keep pulling up these miracle games. The Lamar Jackson roller coaster is a trip if you're a fan, and also if you're just betting on those games like it's just crazy. Flipside though, it Justin Herbert and the chargers are getting points. I'm just going to be there on that train. And you mentioned loving the head coach, you're correct. Fully on that wave. No field goals. We're going for down football. I love it. My guy, as you mentioned giving great press conferences. You were weeks ahead of this. You told me you predicted the future that I would be buying into my guy here and I'm there so again, chargers getting points I am in where are you at on this one? Okay, so yes, you know preface everything with you know, if you're new to the podcast, or just a couple of weeks into the podcast, we have chargers to win the AFC from before the season starts. We have chargers to win the division plus 500 firmware, the season starts. And when it comes to grading bets, by the way, how do those two bets look right now? Pretty good, right? might not win, might not win. And frankly at this point probably won't win. I mean, the AFC West one has a bit better chance, right? Yeah, but those are really good bats, and we'll sort of take our chances from there. Brandon Staley plus 1400 from before the season starts, Brandon Staley plus 700, from last week to win Coach of the Year, right. And every week, there's a viral video clip showing that that guy is one, a really good head coach who was doing stuff I made the joke last week, right? The entire league is playing. He's playing chess, excuse me, while the other team is looking at a checkers board trying to eat the pieces on the checkers court like that is the difference between him and a lot of these other guys. So all that is to say, really, and I probably said this last week, I'm sure I did. Really, really tough spot for the Chargers, right? Big Time wins over and over and over again and they got to go cross country to Baltimore, a team that listen
Sheldon:It wasn't pretty on Monday, which is why we're getting the value of two and a half points here in a game that should have been over and was over a field goal. So we just talked about it in a reverse way, right? How did we get here, we went from three and a half down to two and a half instead of two and a half up to three and a half. Now here's the difference, right? And I don't we don't do this very often, because I don't want people to get kind of like caught up in the concept of like betting percentages, etc, etc. And like who's on what, etc, etc. Arizona Cleveland 61% of the bets right now we're on Cleveland, right? Not a crazy amount, that's what you'd expect from a favorite. And that's not such a heavy number that you would expect a line to move just on volume that's on, you know, size of bet. The Chargers are getting 81% of the bets as an underdog 8080 plus percent, or that sort of range on a favorite is certainly a massive red flag for that week. But when you talk about the public liking an underdog as much as that that is a mega red flag. And so for me, it's not just about that, obviously the spot is brutal. Again, theme week, right? Cardinals chargers and another team that we're going to talk about who again, they're doing it with offense, people love that they're doing with just enough defense, they're doing it in this case, with really strong coaching. Some of the other teams that we're going to mention and including the Cardinals that we've had mentioned, maybe not necessarily as strong coaching. It's just a really tough spot man. And like Baltimore is a good team. And yeah, they spotted the Colts a bunch of points this past Monday, and you can go like okay, well they had to come back and I was really impressed with the fact that they could write like we talk all the time, but the Ravens like get on the Ravens, take them out of their run game and then see what they can do. Well here's 400 yards on you from Lamar Jackson, right and like we talked about that last week of how now they're starting this stretch of home games where if you wanted to get in on a Lamar Jackson MVP at 25 to one like now is the time to do it because here comes the run. I think that run continues this week against the Chargers, again, it is nothing against the Chargers, and I'll put it this way, this might be the last time I bet against the Chargers this entire season, because one of two things is going to happen. One, they're going to win the game outright or covering this spread and I'm going to be so impressed by that, then they're that means they are impervious to sort of bad spots, if you will, right or they lose this game and then they get kind of knocked down a peg a little bit and we can get back to sort of a reasonable price on the Chargers for their games for this sort of foreseeable future and then just being able to kind of move past any sort of scheduling spot going forward. So this is kind of like the one where I'm like okay, we're gonna fade the Chargers here you know hopefully it works out and we'll be right back on them the rest of the way right you still be on top of them for the whole like division scene and the playoffs and all of that sort of thing. So it is a one time only situation here that again had to mention all the stuff we like about the charges and all the bets that we have long term on the Chargers this week it's just a tough one here against the Ravens either ravens minus two and a half. So is this one of those things where it's not so much about the teams per se as much as it is just the number in the teams? Do you know what I mean? Like because the number is at two and a half that makes it a lot easier for you to take the Ravens Oh for sure. Yeah, I mean crossing over minus three is absolutely critical in this play. But it's a rating thing right we talk range in rating right so I expect a really strong game from the Ravens and I expect the charges to play at sort of the back end potentially of their range part of that is going to be because of the Ravens part of that's going to be because you know road game all you know travel all of that sort of thing and just like you can't play this awesome all the time and again they were too touched it speaking of the 14 point going for to situation right they were two touchdowns down to the browns and that game could have gone a lot differently and if it does, we're probably looking at a minus three or minus three and a half right so the fact that we're getting that that price because of the high volume of chargers bets that's come in at 81%. Again, we don't talk about that very often but like that's pretty glaring and need needs needs to be mentioned in this case. That's why right it's just you know, we're on the bandwagon we're just gonna take a quick coffee break while the bandwagon wagon goes around the block one more time, but we're gonna hop right back on that charges bandwagon. Don't you worry about that. That's super interesting. My Dude, I love it. I love the insight and analysis. As always, let's keep the train moving here two and three Vikings. Two point favorites at the Carolina Panthers who come in with the three in to record. This line seems kind of weird to me. And maybe it's just because of the Vikings being road favorites. Not sure how comfortable I am there. Right And so my lean would be to be on the Panthers except for the Sam darnold stuff is kind of wreaking its ugly head in
Matt:I don't know if he's feeling like he's back in the Jets jersey again or what's going on. But what's your take here on this game? Vikings two point favorites. Well, our issue with Sam Donald right has always been turnovers back to USC. I never saw him play in high school I imagined he was turning the ball over in high school as well. It's just it's all it's just constant. Right? And that you can't have that in the NFL. Like we talked about that being the one thing we don't like about Lamar, right? He gets loose with the football. We're like Sam Darnell is the mayor of loose town when it comes to like being loose with the football. And whether it's fumbles, or three interceptions last week, it's just like, I can't rely on this guy home road like that, you know, again, you know, we just referenced sort of the tough spot for the Chargers when it comes to like, cross country travel, but like they're also playing a really good team, Minnesota like, yeah, things got weird last week, right? And we sweat the hell out of that survivor pick last week, but the fact of the matter was like, they did only give up what seven points through 58 minutes or whatever of that game. They did have a 10 point lead. By the way they only gave up 14 to Cleveland, you know, a week before that. And while they were only able to muster seven to Cleveland and weren't in the red zone after that first initial touchdown drive. You know, you just watched Cleveland just running up and down the field on the Chargers that team enterprise we just talked about. Everybody loves so pointed. This is like a couple of different things. One, I just think the Vikings had a better football team. I don't have much in the line for the Panthers. home field advantage, you know theoretical homefield advantage. We're not getting Christian McCaffrey back the team is different without Christian McCaffrey. Why? Because Sam Darnell doesn't have to force things as much right and that means there's less turnovers and so if you're gonna lose the turnover battle, you're probably going to lose the game. That's the thing we know about the NFL and so from a market standpoint, we watch this line open Carolina minus one minus one and a half. even wrote my teaser piece for the score on Tuesday. About that line being one and a half and being like we can get the Vikings up to seven and a half. I love that. Here's why I love that. Or here's an indicator of why I should have loved that. The Lions jumped the fence right it's jumped the fence to the Vikings by you know to here and you know it was one for a little bit and it moved up to two even some two and a halves. Because Thursday right we always talk about Thursdays the the limits go up you can make bigger bets on Thursday. So the big money comes in on Thursday. So Thursday's are a really key DAY FOR WATCHING line movement because you see where some of the bigger money goes. And that's the case here with the Vikings, right so people are on on the Vikings here in a really big way. I can't disagree with that. Again, I don't care necessarily that they're on the road. We saw them play and saw them score repeatedly against the Cardinals. The I believe that was the last time that the Vikings were on the road. So not worried about that still getting an under a field goal. I'm fine with that. So just a bunch of different things going on that are kind of worth mentioning as far as that whole like market concept is concerned and obviously the beware of Sam darnold concept is concerned. All of these things add up to until Carolina gets Christian McCaffrey back and until they maybe get Stephon Gilmore going in that in the defense to replace JC horn. They're just not a team that I'm afraid of. You know, even laying a couple of points here on the road obviously we saw them lose out right to the Eagles last week. And and yeah, I just think this Vikings team i'm gonna i'm probably gonna go to my deathbed with it. I just think this Vikings team is better than we give credit for because we're terrified of Kirk Cousins and all the time, but like there's nobody to be more terrified of than Sam darnold. So absolutely. Give me the Vikings in this one. Yeah, you're totally right. And I like flicked over a little more often to that Panthers game last week to kind of see what was going on with my guy, DJ Moore who I haven't fantasy. And you're right about No, but I bring that up not for the fantasy stupid talk. But when I checked into that game, it was Sam Darnell just trying to force the ball in to more like so many times. And it's just like, that's where the picks were coming from. So I'm just backing up your point here on the lack of having Christian McCaffrey and how normally we talk about running backs, you know, in the role that they play, but the role that McCaffrey plays in terms of the safety blanket, a little more than that, but you know what I'm saying like, Oh, just that safety blanket for Sam darnold it's been a huge thing, especially when you're dealing with the guy who has those issues. So I totally understand where you're coming from there. Kirk Cousins, I don't like it, but he's done all right for us so far this year, so I'm still rolling with it. I like it. I like it. I like it. Yeah. And honestly, what is Kirk Cousins have to do to get a little credit around here right? Like he wasn't the reason that things got a little squirrely there. Right. The Vikings defense obviously was a little bit of reason but and a sketchy yet another sketchy fumble call By the way, I get going against the Vikings last week, this time Alexander Madison, his progress clearly stopped. Apparently we don't call that anymore. Who knows with the NFL. Right? And so there's a fumble there and it's like
Sheldon:yeah by the way Kirk Cousins like drives them down the field in 30 seconds you get that game winning field goal and it's like it's no credit no credit and we still go like oh well they almost lost to Detroit like hurt cousins like add it again and you're like you mean the guy who like pulled it out of the fire for like 60% of what survivor players out there Mike I can't get any credit for that it's like if Tom Brady did that like we would be all about it so obviously not comparing the two but like yeah it's not it's certainly not Kirk Cousins this year. Of course as I say that right I'll probably throw three interceptions
Matt:of speaking of quarterback play I'm enjoying so far what we've been seeing from your man's Dak Prescott foreign one cowboys three point favorites in New England against the two and three patriots Now I know that you know it's making me think the Patriots at home here home dogs in my lien though is I'm wondering can Mack Jones really keep up with that cowboys offense this this is where I come in here this is my Joe public take here where I need you to talk me through this here because I'm just like I can't see Mack Jones keeping up with this cowboys offense we really going to do this again. Are we really gonna do this again? like we just did this two weeks ago right like Matt Jones can't keep up with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense right and it's like at least this one's right in our mind's eye from two weeks ago right like we don't even have to like go to you know, you know never Neverland to kind of find out Mack Mack Peter Pan Jones here and is going up against hook you know speaking of the hook
Sheldon:yeah like this is this theme right this is the theme it's block is too hot box too hot right now and the Cardinals block is too hot right now and the Chargers the blocks too hot right now on Dallas Cowboys. This number can't be over three again. Maybe they're clicking maybe they're awesome and all that sort of thing. And again, we've talked about it I have I have left room for the concept of the Cowboys being really awesome right? I am the one who taught you know has referred back to the way we thought about this team last August before the absolute injury ravaged season that happened we never give the Cowboys sort of you know Leighton credit for having a bad season from an injury standpoint whereas like the 40 Niners for example it's like injuries, injuries injuries it's like you know Kyle Shanahan is gonna be like under 500 and like we're gonna put him in the Hall of Fame B and it's just gonna say well injuries right and it's like we never give Dallas that kind of you know sort of latent credit in all of this so all that is to say though, like again the lines just too high it's not a it's not a Dallas hate. It's nothing like that. It's like we see this all the time. And again, I refer back to last year right where it was we had Sunday night game against Baltimore. Bill Belichick puts on the turns the weather on right, he turns the rain on and just and just doses the Ravens, they win that game, then they go on the road to Houston and everybody's just assuming that that the Patriots are back and they're going to beat Houston and it's way closer than the experts think and we were all over at that right fast forward to this year. Same thing happens only there you know replace the Ravens with the Bucs the Texans are right in there. But do you remember what happened after the Texans game last year?
Matt:What happened was patriots came home having just you know I believe they lost to the Texans you know having disappointed let's say on the road against against Houston and they came home and they faced a high octane flashy offensive team by the name of the Arizona Cardinals and what happened game winning field goal for the Patriots and oh my god they shut down Kyler Murray like you know that was incredible. How did they pull this off? cam Newton's running around again. He's out of the league now. And it's the same situation right where Dallas like Arizona three for you know, three and a half point favorite. Same exact deal. Yeah, like the Patriots are gonna step up. It's what they do, they might not win the game. But this is going to be that closer than the experts think situation here. The defense is going to do just enough. We're going to see potential regression like are we definitely going to get another Trayvon Diggs interception? No, not necessarily. Right. And again, as much as as highly as I think of the Cowboys potential here, we still haven't seen it discernibly and obviously right like got bailed out a little bit in you know, that chargers victory. And the rest of those wins or NFC East kind of sketchy or tech victories here. So again, like just an overvalue situation, it's not the end of the world, you know, the Cowboys are gonna be fine. They may even win this game. But as far as like, how do we get on the side that's probably going to cover iE 55 to 60% of the time. It's by having value especially across key numbers and being able to evaluate why
Sheldon:We're getting that value, right? And it's not hard to figure out why we're getting the value here. But we are right, the Patriots plus three and a half. Anything lower than that obviously becomes less and less interesting. But as long as it's over three, it's absolutely a patriots bet here for me. So over three, you lean in page, you're on the Patriots. Three, it's kind of like a Yeah, obviously, it is what it is right? The probability goes down, and you don't get as excited about that bet, right? Because there's a very real possibility of the Cowboys win by three. I'm getting the feeling here that we're going to, if we fast forward to Tuesday, there's going to be a lot of me being like, should I listen to Matt on this?
Matt:I'm just predicting a bit of the future here. But this is why I love this. This is why we do this. This is why it gets me gets me hyped up in the morning when we're doing this because it's so much fun. And you know, thinking of this game as well. belcheck is known to come up with some some ish, when we least expect it just figuring some stuff out. But I I need to see it from Mac and company. But hey, that's why they play the games. Right? But that's my point. I think we didn't we that's my point. We saw it two weeks ago. I was easier for me to take them at the higher number. What was that? right against the bucks? Yeah, it was seven. Right? It was seven like that. Yeah, yeah. No, that's understandable. No, that being said, right. Are the Cowboys two points? You know, three points. You know, worse than than the Buccaneers? Yeah, no, right. I know what you're saying. I don't think so. I think it's I think they're I think they're a little bit worse than that. Even again, as highly as I think of the cowboy. I love it. I love it. I'm not sure how much I love this next game. Although for people who are people like ourselves who like to dabble in some of the games that might not be the most headlining type games. And we're talking Davis mills and Carson Wentz here. What did for Texans are at the one in four Colts Carson Wentz I mean he looks pretty good I'm struggling to say it because I can't believe the words are coming out of my mouth but he was putting up numbers on Monday night we're taking him by double digits I don't know if I could do that even against I said this last week against your boy Davis Mills cat Davis Mills get some level of respect here 10 point underdogs I have to by default lean Texans here No. Yeah, I mean this is insanity. Right? This 10 point spread is insane. Analyzing Carson Wentz of Carson's went whence his middle name was a GIF. It would be the Larry David GIF where he's just standing and like looking back and forth and just like not impressed and not really sure what he's watching right like that would be you know, it was it's the you know, prince had a symbol just went by a symbol for a long time. If Carson Wentz just changed his name to a gift, that would be the gift right because that's Carson Wentz. Whether it's play to play or game to game, you never know what you're getting right it's up down its side side to side it's it's rolling around on the ground, like who knows what this guy is going to do at any given time. Right? And it's that's the Sam darnold effect, right? It's these quarterbacks who have just enough athleticism to get themselves into trouble and so yeah, sometimes it might work out where you end up going like Carson Wentz. Pretty good. And then there's other days you're gonna be like I can't believe I bet on Carson Wentz. And so yeah, I suppose there's a possibility that Indy wins this game by more than 10 points. I just I don't have it man. Like again, we do the thing where I flip the computer upside down and we try to shake it around and see if these numbers get back into place where it makes the Colts at 10 point favorite. I have this number 6.9 right so basically seven and so you're getting a free three points on the concept that Houston's really bad and like they're bad, but I don't think they're bad bad and like maybe maybe Davis Mills is my boy like maybe that actually is that they like you know, he's my boy blue.
Sheldon:Here's a situation with Davis Mills. And if you were if we were being fair to someone, right? If you were you know the starting quarterback of a team or should say a backup quarterback early, early draft pick, and then we said to you Hey man, we're down 10 against the Cleveland Browns. Our starter got injured you mind going out there and like trying to lead a comeback drive? And he'd be like, ah, God, man, I haven't gotten to like page four yet on the playbook. So I mean, I can do it, but like it's probably not going to go great. And you go Okay, cool. Cuckoo Cuckoo. But here's the thing. He's gonna be out for a little while. Um, we also play on Thursday night, this coming. We play in three days. How many more pages can you get through on the playbook? Well, I went to Stanford, I probably get two more pages under my belt in three days. Like it is, you know, pretty complicated in NFL offense. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. Um, didn't look particularly great. That's fine.
Matt:You have a little extra time to prepare. Here's the thing though. We're going to Buffalo next week, it's going to be pouring rain the entire time. And you have to keep up with Josh Allen. Um, you probably get a few more pages on the playbook. But like nobody said anything about rain and like the bills defense and like and having to score probably 30 to 40 points to hang in this game, right? And so guess what? They weren't ready to play in that game because like they were just never going to be ready to hang with the bills in that game. That was the only game and well you can go back and go back on the tape here. But like I was fine laying 17 points with you. You know, you were like, yeah, I think I gotta lay the 17 points. I was like, Yeah, I think you know me well enough to know like, that's almost never happening. coming out of my mouth. And then a week later happens and it's like, you know what, how about Justin, good ish team. In the Patriots. You get a full week at home conditions aren't sketchy. Like this is finally like a real game for Davis Mills. And we got a couple plays in the old playbook here and just make a few throws and you know what he did? He made a few throws. And it wasn't his fault that the defense kind of faded down the stretch and gave up just enough points to lose. Or they tried some wacky special teams, you know, buffoonery that ended up having the punter kick a guy in the back with the punt. Like all of that stuff is not Davis Davis Mills his fault and he ends up with like an 81 or 82 qB er for that game right quarterback rating. And so that's you know, obviously outstanding. And now it goes against the Colts team. short week devastating loss, Jacqueline Hyde Carson Wentz. Like again a number that I've got a ton of value on. Let's break it out. Let's break out the red light here man red light special red light special Watch out for the upset in this game. If you think you are getting away with taking the Colts here in survivor and like When am I going to use them again or let's just get them out of the way. My advice to you is do not do that again. Okay, well let's might end up winning this game. I think it's going to be closer than the experts think as they say, but there's gonna be other spots and look at it this way full on survivor strategy conversation here.
Sheldon:The Colts play the Jets this season. They of course play the Jags at home this season. Let's at least watch the Colts not bleep this up before we trust the Colts in survivor because there will be other opportunities to do so. Right? Like Let this be his audition if they win and a bunch of people survive that's fine because you can use the Colts against the Jets or the Jags later on and they can't if he loses well then a we avoided losing be a bunch of people lost and see we now at least have some education here about whether we should be trusting him going forward and you can make that decision later on against the Jags or the jets and maybe you need him to win that next game to then get some confidence to take him against that third bad team so again just stay away from it take the points here find another option for survivor which we will get into Of course because that's what we do here. But yeah, little red light special on a 10 point underdog didn't necessarily go that great last week but you know what? You can't be shy about these sorts of things got a fire away. Shooter shoot right shooter. Three in two bangles three and a half point favorites on the road at the open five lions. The hook really really really really wants me to take the lions and you know what? I'm gonna do it. Oh boy. I gotta catch a break at some point don't they? Like I yeah, and maybe I'm emotional here like your man's man Campbell who's very emotional after that loss in the postgame and my guys up there on the podium crying and he's not so much talking about kneecaps anymore, right? The Lions the three and a half points they'll hook the hook is really that solidifies it for me hear that and I want to take the lines and maybe it's my heart once you my brain that's the thing right like I wish he hadn't cried like not because like I could care less either dudes cry or anything right but it's like Joellen bead screw that guy yeah, I mean that guy's it's it gots to go situation for him. Um, listen, I don't Yeah, I just wish he hadn't brought the attention right like just just leave it be man. Like we could we could have snuck in here maybe for four and a half. But like a lot of people are like yeah, I think Detroit has a chance and like I do too. And this is my night out in Vegas game right? You blackout for a couple hours and you wake up and you're like wait the Bengals lost to the lines. What? What happened? And like, it doesn't make any sense because like you said, it isn't just like the in game bad breaks or whatever for for the lions, right? It's the injuries that are
Matt:Mounting but they were mounting last week against the Vikings again, we just talked about how that games probably a 10 point Vikings win in a lot of different universes, right? It's just we happen to live in a universe where forward progress doesn't exist. And so, you know, in this universe where we're at like I get why people are into the Bengals at a relatively short number. It's just like again I don't necessarily trust the bangles here I imagine they probably do well on offense but I don't necessarily think that the lions aren't going to score here too. I think the lions are going to score against a Bengals defense that did pretty well against Green Bay obviously that was an emotional game but we didn't see anybody crying from the bangles last week as you know every kick gets missed right of the 30 kicks that got messed I'm pretty sure half of them came in that Bengals Packers game so bit of a letdown spot for Cincinnati right like going on the road against just the lions after almost beating the Packers so yeah, like I completely understand where you're at with this play and and you know, last week the Bengals were our you know, night out in Vegas team as far as covering the spread against the Packers on a short number. And that's you know, maybe again, another team here to zig and zag with here, whether it's the saints or the Patriots see all these teams that we talked about one week to the next might be the case here for the Bengals. Just be careful about this one. I think you're on it here with the lions. I think that's probably the side that strangely enough you might want to be on for this game. But otherwise, it's just you know, you can probably stay away from this game and not really be that bummed out about it. Come Sunday. I do not need to watch the Bengals in line.
Sheldon:But what game I mean, maybe I would have wanted to watch if things were a little different. In circumstance wise, injury wise is the Sunday night and you know, we got the Seahawks at the Steelers. But before we get into the actual particulars, I'm going to give you a reminder that you can head to DRF comm slash sports for a full preview on this Seahawks and Steelers game. And we know that a lot of focuses on know Russell Wilson, as he's out with an injury. Geno Smith is in what our guy Scott Grambling writes in part the Seahawks enter week six as the only NFL team that's allowing an average of more than 450 total yards per game. Now that's kind of one of the focuses I want to start out with here because I want to ask you if Big Ben in the Steelers can take advantage of this and I'm also going to add in the line as the Steelers are five point favorites at home How do you play into all this here with this five point advantage here for the Steelers nicely in the Vegas zone? Yeah right because we don't know right like we don't necessarily know what Gino and what it you know the difference between Russell Wilson and somebody else is because we never have to know right we all kind of just assume we go like man This could get ugly if Russell Wilson's ever not on this team right? And I always say like Russell Wilson's the MVP of the NFL every year and never gets votes not because like he deserved to win the MVP because he is literally the most valuable player to his team because again if it was if he was gone it would be you know hell in a handbasket type of situation right? So here comes hell in a handbasket himself it's Geno Smith which listen we beat up Gino because things did not go well to start his career with the jets and then he was thrust in as the you know the guy to break Eli Manning's consecutive start streak. It's like that's what we're breaking it for. So we can squeeze Geno Smith in here like what are we doing? And then he ends up on Seattle and it's like well we're never gonna see Gino again because Russell Wilson doesn't get hurt the guy is made of granite and then it happens right and so now we're sitting here going like I don't know man I don't know what to do with Gino. So let's talk a little ratings stuff here. I know you love getting into the ratings. I drag into the conversation on these ratings right? Steelers, I'll give it to you like you know, a mediocre team, right? So like, and we know what we're gonna get sort of the mediocre version of the Packers where you kind of know every week what you're gonna get, you get solid defense, you're gonna get like maybe some up and down play from Ben Roethlisberger. But you're gonna get both you're gonna get the ups and the downs, you're not just going to get downs for an entire for entire game, and you're not going to be certainly not gonna get ups for the entire game. So I just sit them at 50 right? They are purely a mediocre team, right? Like, would you argue that they are I should be higher or lower than 50 at all? No, I'm cool with that. I'm cool. Yeah, right. Like, maybe 55 like you don't mean like you're not you're not gonna be like, I think there are 70 so yeah, you're never gonna do that. So we know what they are. But we don't know what Seattle is right? And the headline is Geno and phage genome and genome and primetime and all that sort of thing. And obviously the Pittsburgh defense and the idea of there then creating pressure and when Gino was under pressure last week, it did not go very well. Right. Like he was okay when there wasn't pressure but when there was no
Matt:So we don't know from Gina. Here's the thing this number makes sense if you rate the Seahawks as a 40 without Russell Wilson if you think they are better than a 40 out of 100 without Russell Wilson with Gino then you need to make a bet on the Seattle Seahawks if you think they're going to be worse than 40 out of 100 if you think they're going to be the level of say the Atlanta Falcons who are sub 40 or you know all of those teams down in that sort of you know range if you think that then you need to make a bet on the Steelers right and that's why this number isn't three and that's why this number isn't seven or three and a half and six and a half that's why it's in the Vegas zone because it's that question right and we are going to get that answered at least you know first data point this Sunday when it comes to this game because again like we know what we're gonna get from the Steelers offense but as much but as much as the headline is Gino Gino Gino what's gonna happen to the Seahawks offense what was gonna happen with this Seahawks team anyway right even if Russell Wilson was around because the defense like you said like Scott pointed out in that article. He's absolutely right like they're atrocious right again the headline is the Chiefs defense is bad the headline is you know fill in the blank other team's defense is bad, but like again, Russell Wilson makes up for the idea that the Seahawks defense is terrible they're cutting their starting quarterback this week, because they're like we got it like they're like it's got to be better right? It can't be any worse than this guy like get them off the teams like he was starting for you last week. Is that going to heal things? No, but it's just like why are we paying this guy to be awful when we can pay somebody less to probably be just as awful and so the Steelers are going to be able to move the ball here. I don't know I don't think that the Seahawks are gonna be able to move the ball here. You could lay the points here with Pittsburgh or or just win baby now I know that's a Raiders terminology. Okay, but the Steelers are my play here this week for survivor Oh, Sunday Night Football action you're not going to get the sort of Sleepy Tomlin team that when they're a favorite sometimes they're not paying all that much attention. It's Sunday Night Football right like if this was a one o'clock or a four o'clock game I'd like it a lot less. The Steelers are the sneaky survivor pick here if we think that the Colts could lose this week and we don't want the Rams because they're our road team that's just sort of fundamentally not something I like in there are places to play the Rams at home you know I own the turf if you will later on in the season. This is one that sort of we're gonna dig a little bit here we're gonna create our own path in survivor we're gonna we're gonna grab the Steelers here there's not a ton of other spots right they play in a tough division where even the Bengals obviously they've already played the Bengals at home so you're not really wanting to mess with them on the road. But like a ravens Browns I think don't have that cupcake in their division to take down there's a lions game and a couple of weeks but there's some better options that you can take there including Indianapolis after their trial run this week if the Steelers so you can make the play minus five minus five and a half on the Steelers but for me I'm invested in this survivor pool so I'm just going to play them to win outright on Sunday night I would be stunned. I will be stunned if Geno Smith on the road on Sunday Night Football leaves this Seahawks team and that atrocious defense. Yeah, enjoy a victory in Pittsburgh. This could be the one last hurrah for Big Ben on Sunday Night Football gets all the flowers the people that want to give Big Ben flowers I might not be one of those people but I'm talking about from a league perspective you know hey cool we could be seeing that picture. The Monday nighter is also a very interesting matchup with another interesting line as the bills are favored by five and a half points in Tennessee against the Titans
Sheldon:This is kind of weird to me the Vegas zone always my first inclination when I see the Vegas zone line is to take the points and the bills are obviously the talk of the town right now so I just got red flags going off all over the place here I know there's that Twitter thing that's going on here where you're seeing red flags Yeah, this line here it just tells me something fishy is going on. Yeah, I don't know. fishy or just like they're really really good man and they're really really good and it's the same thing it's the same theme cowboys chargers Cardinals Yeah, etc etc right? It's everything that sort of adds up to just getting a couple extra points here right and we saw Tennessee pretty much the same team last year beat up on the bills and that weird Tuesday night game where the bills basically kind of gave up right they pulled Josh Allen like a third or fourth quarter like this is stupid we're not even gonna compete anymore. I mean just incredibly tough spot back to back primetime road games right so you go to Kansas City you get you know, we talked about them going deep into the playbook and just being like, okay, like we've got all this stuff with stolen stuff from the Ravens from a run game standpoint, we're just going to bust all this stuff out, they're not going to know what hit.
Matt:You know, now it's like Alright, now we got to go to Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, like they haven't done much this year from a signature standpoint, I expect to potentially see Julio Jones back right another day for him to heal. And now we get the Tennessee team with AJ brown and Julio, and that's sort of offense that can keep up with the bills if they happen to play a little lower in their range, right? Maybe a little below what we expect from the bills. And so yeah, we by Sunday, or excuse me, by Monday, we'll be able to get plus six here, maybe even a little higher than that, as we see, you know, most places like five, five and a half think we can get that full six, touchdown, maybe a little bit more come Monday once everybody kind of gets focused in on that game. And that's the play that I'm going to make right i think the Titans have a chance to win this game and shock the world that right? It's just like, weekly sort of concept in the NFL. But yeah, it's not you know, Titans aren't a team that I necessarily love. And certainly the bills are not a team that I hate. But again, tough spot for the bills, really sort of a kitchen sink type situation here for the Titans to borrow a phrase. I like the Titans plus six in this one. I'm certainly waiting for that number before I pull the trigger. I like it. Well, I also like this craziness of the NCAA season, as you switch gears to a little college football action. And we always like to start with the big boy matchups here the kind of the headliners will say, and we got Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas favorite buy for? What do you like in here in this game?
Sheldon:Yeah, this is funny, right? Because Oklahoma State like mega under the radar, like a you know, they're undefeated. Did you know that? Like, I'm not even sure I knew that right? They sort of you wake up and realize we mean Oklahoma State has actually lost a game. Because the second halves of their games, we've talked about this before, they don't actually score points. And they still end up covering numbers, because the defense is good enough to give them a lead where they can just sort of sit on that, right. And the thing is, now this is a different story, right? You go to Texas, and that offense or guy be john Robinson, Casey Thompson, like it's a different animal here for Oklahoma State. And you see this number dropped down a little bit, which obviously has me a little bit concerned, at least from a market watch type situation here, this is five, five and a half earlier on in the week, we're down to four, I'm still fine with taking Texas here minus the floor. I think that team's really, really good again, like sort of fell apart once things got kind of crazy against the Oklahoma Sooners last week, but we've seen them bounce back from devastating losses year after here, unfortunately for them in the Red River rivalry. And so I think that happens again, here. I think Oklahoma State, again, overrated because of the record, you know, people are sort of just getting into sort of figuring out that that's a pretty good team, but they are a good team because of their defense. And that defense has just been able to do well against not so great offenses here. And so I think Texas takes care of business in this one. As we keep things moving here we got Kentucky, at Georgia, Georgia, obviously still the top of the entire NCAA, obviously, with Alabama going down all the focuses on Georgia, kind of being the leaders of what's going on here. But 21 and a half point favorites. Is that too many points? Well, it certainly was early on in the week when it's 23 and a half, right? I wrote about a tab for the score. But this obviously one of the big games of the week. And listen, I love Georgia. Like you know, we've talked about this with two weeks ago talking about how like, I think they're better than Alabama, I think they're going to beat Alabama, they're the best team in the country, the defense is insane, we get thrown off because the quarterback situation is a little bit dicey. And like it's not, you know, ideal. They don't have that like draft pick level quarterback. And that sort of throws everybody for a loop. So yeah, like I was on Kentucky at 23 and a half. And guess what, that was too many points because this number is down to 21 and a half now is there that much of a likelihood of this game ending on 22 or on 23. I mean, you'd be surprised the way these sort of things kind of work out but as long as you're getting over three touchdowns in a game that I think it's going to be really low scoring. And I said that about the Arkansas game. And it potentially said that last week in the Auburn game as we actually went with the total last week under 46. And we got there by like opponent, because Georgia actually gave up 10 points last week instead of zero points. I think both these teams defenses are really good. I really respect the coaching job that Kentucky has gotten under Mark Stoops right like who knew that Kentucky would be undefeated and the 11th ranked team in the country like this is new heights for them. They are not going to win this game. But this might be just a game that is 20 to nothing they might Kentucky might not score in this game and still cover the point spread. Right like that's where we might be at here with regards to the scoring in this game. Yeah, Kentucky's offense is a little bit better than I think most people give them credit for
Matt:Because it isn't just a run, run, run type offense the way that it has been in recent years, they are pet throwing the football more effectively. That being said, You're not going to do anything against this Georgia team, they're not going to win this game. But again, they might cover this game by just scoring the absolute minimum amount of points, which might be three points, it might even be zero points for the cover here. It's just a matter of keeping Georgia out of the end zone. I think Kentucky can do that. To the tune of Yeah, this might be 21 to nothing, but that's good enough when you're giving 21 and a half.
Sheldon:Love it. Pit minus five at Virginia Tech. Let's keep things moving here with these big games. Yeah, man. Like this is the game that we sort of talked about earlier on in the season. And the bad news is that Notre Dame game last week against with Virginia for Virginia Tech, excuse me, that really beat him up. Literally, you know, theoretically all of those sorts of things, right? Braxton burmeister is trying to play through the rest of that game because his backup quarterback who comes in for running plays, he's getting carried off the field. burmeister has got the shoulder hanging from the side. And he's trying to make throws because they needed one more score to beat Notre Dame and they just couldn't get it right. And so they end up blowing that lead because they weren't able to add more more points to the game. And so this is a game that we thought Virginia Tech would be favored in. When we were looking to grab Virginia Tech for the division. They are no longer favored because it's looking like burmeister is not going to play and pit. Right. We thought like we don't like pit. We invested in a pit in Kenny pick it right. And for the Heisman and this is his first look at a really good team road, you know, tough environment, etc, etc. This is the start of that road for him to potentially be a Heisman candidate, which is why we've grabbed him if you haven't already. He's still available at 42 one to win the Heisman. So we got sort of two conflicting things here where it's like, we like Virginia Tech. We like Pittsburgh, this is where the sort of fork in the road happens right where if Pittsburgh wins as the favorite here they become the favorite in the ACC and we might have to say so long to that Virginia Tech bat. But it also then gives Kenny pick it this platform if you will to potentially get in that Heisman Trophy race that again, we've been talking all season is wide open no matter what the odds say with corral and young at the top of that list. So no play in the game for me here necessarily, but it is certainly a big game because one of these two teams is going to have that inside track at an acc championship game birth. I got you talking about the championship game. Alabama went down last week. Can they get back on track as 17 point favorites at Mississippi State? Yeah, you'd assume so right?
Matt:It is Alabama right and so defensively The key thing is here early on in that Texas a&m get one of their best corners right there sort of nickel corner and obviously a guy who's gonna be on the field a lot of the time he gets called for targeting obviously a 15 yard penalty not ideal but more of an issue he gets ejected from the game he is able to come back because it was the first half of that game and not the second half of that game that's going to be incredibly important against Mike leeches offense which is that air raid running gun you know five out or four wide receiver one running back you know no tight ends no fullbacks none of this bs for Mike Leach he just wants to throw throw throw and play that wide open style well by looking shut that down right but they need all of their guys all of their secondary players to be able to do that and I don't mean sort of secondaries and second string I mean literally the guys in the secondary so where Alabama has been vulnerable right as to the run game you saw Texas a&m being able to extend drives in the run game. We saw Florida being able to run against Alabama which again, uncharted territory from that standpoint, but it's one of the reasons why we like Georgia in a matchup against Alabama because they are going to be able to run the ball against alabama mississippi state doesn't really do that right it's not their thing here so i think you know Alabama is going to bounce back they're going to win this game we're talking about a 17 point spread not a game that I want to get involved in necessarily because like I don't think this Alabama team is as good as years past we've talked about that at length right we don't want to pay last year prices for this year's Alabama team right we that's why we were on Florida, way back when so not a play for me necessarily here but yes, obviously I would expect Alabama to you know, have everyone's full attention right Nick Saban will have everyone's full attention for this game. Does that mean they cover the 17 you know, I don't know it's a Stay away from me. I just fully expect them to to have a nice showing against mississippi state. And I want to know who's going to have a nice showing in our next game here because it's a pickup game, which are always interesting if you're trying to lay money down here, but Arizona state at Utah, who are you picking? This is uh, yeah, I'm conflicted. Right, because we talked about Arizona state as this talented team that should be really good. And if they can keep winning games might sneak themselves into this. Top for the college football playoff like it's not out of the realm of possibility if they start piling up wins that's really going to be put to the test this week because you know you said like a pickup game in college football like it's almost unheard of right because you know, even if you think it's number one versus number two and like this game could go either way. A lot of time there's going to be a three point favorite here or there so both these teams certainly have a path to the division title in the PAC 12 south and that right there is sort of what makes this a big game it's obviously a late night game, you know, maybe a sort of get right game, if you will. As much as I want to trust Arizona State like this just reeks of a game where Kyle Whittingham is going to have his team ready in Utah and we watched Arizona State sort of literally fumble a game away against BYU. So their last trip to the state of Utah didn't go particularly well. So yeah, I think there's you know, it's kind of, you know, an indicator here that this game is a pickup because we think so highly of Arizona state that like a lot of people are gonna be on Arizona State here not having to give points here but like this Utah State team with Cameron rising, they just went to USC and absolutely destroyed USC. Now, USC is not particularly good, but it's just sort of impressive to see that that offense is clicking a little bit and that is going to do them quite well here against Arizona state. So Eileen, you telling the game, I just don't love that because of how we've sort of felt about Arizona State this season. Okay, okay. Well, I know how I feel about our next segment here because it's becoming one of my favorite things that we do on this podcast, and you can already hear the music cooking is a producer's just on it already. I only mean one thing, it's time to hurry up offense, aka some rapid fire NCAA picks. So I'm just gonna get out of the way here and let you cook. All right, let's dig in here last week we did 23 that was a mistake. Too many games. So let's do it a nice reasonable 19 games this week. Let's go Alright, we got two on Friday. So hopefully you're listening to this before they happen. I assume they actually and assuming they actually end up as winners. Couple of 13 and a half point underdogs. Let's start with Syracuse at home against Clemson. clemson is just an auto fade the rest of the way here right especially if you're going to be giving this many points to a team. That is not particularly good right. I know it's Clemson I know it's this that whatever. Not really a good team we're taking Syracuse at home. Cow this is not going to make a ton of sense because cow has not looked very good. Oregon is laying 13 and a half at home to cow cows going to be able to stunt Oregon's offense here a little bit. And I you know again not great results here that's why we're getting value with cow This is a big time sort of step up game for cow I think they're going to be able to hang in here with Oregon sketchy stuff happens as you know, Primetime in the PAC 12. Those are the games for Friday. Now as for Saturday is concerned, Auburn at Arkansas. You know this SEC is so funny because it's like okay, you lose a big game now you have to play the other team that lost the big game last week we saw that with Arkansas Ole Miss. Now Arkansas loses on that two point conversion attempt at the end of the game of 5251 game and Arkansas gets blown out by Georgia guess what our excuse me Auburn gets blown out by Georgia. Everybody gets blown out by Georgia right like that's the existence that we live in. I'm not going to beat Auburn up for getting beat beat up by Georgia. I think they can hang in here with our kids. I think they can win this game against Arkansas because Arkansas gave up 326 I think rush yards last week to Ole Miss. And maybe that was because they didn't want corral to beat them at corral to beat them. But now take bigsby comes to town and the freshmen as well he's a stud too. And it's like I think Auburn runs all over Arkansas. I don't know how much Arkansas has left to give you could make the case going into last week's game that they still had everything in front of them. They could win the division. They could get to the SEC championship with that devastating loss to Lane Kiffin group last week. That's kind of gone all by the wayside here so a third straight big game here for Arkansas. I'm going to take the points here with Auburn plus four and a half. Speaking to taking the points on fading Cincinnati again, not a great move last week. Admittedly not a great move last week. Central Florida plus 22 it's not the Central Florida of old but they are that team who is going is going to play you a little bit differently right Cincinnati has gone slugging it out like Smash Mouth football with Notre Dame and Indiana etc etc. UCF does it a different way right they spread out their one throw it a ton etc. So I think they can hang in this number here since as defense is good. It's just a different style of play here for Cincinnati. I still think they win relatively comfortably but 22 is too many points. Michigan State in Indiana almost left this off. But you know what? This would be the time where they would actually not cover Indiana plus four and a half at home. fading. I'm going to keep visiting this Michigan State team again. Maybe not After this week, we failed the last couple of weeks. Again, I don't think they're as good as sort of the record obviously indicates with them, Rutgers and Northwestern This is the time. This is the rough. Excuse me, this is the northwestern spot, right? It took a visit from Rutgers to get us to bet on Northwestern which we have basically avoided all season long, small underdogs here to wreckers who are just an absolute disappointment last week, literally like 80 yard touchdowns left, right and center against four records. That was a bummer. But we're gonna be on Northwestern as small home underdogs here, Texas a&m and Missouri. It doesn't feel great, but we're going to take Missouri plus the eight and a half. It's just a classic letdown, right? It's just standard operating procedure. Texas a&m gets the big win against Alabama. We're charging the field. It's pat on the back season right now. Now they go to Missouri, they should be able to walk through Missouri relatively easily, especially with how bad Missouri's run defense is. I don't know how Missouri is going to hang into this one plus eight and a half there. Duke plus 10 and a half on the road against Virginia who is Virginia and that defense who gave up 8.1 yards per play last week to Louisville and by the way, still somehow won. Who are they to be laying 10 and a half points against anybody do can actually score with this team? I think they do. And this game gets really interesting at the end. 10 and a half points too many gave me Duke Air Force plus three and a half at Boise State off the cuff. A lot of people think Boise State's a good team. I don't. And you know, and if Air Force wants to drop the ball on the field all of the time, like BYU did last week, then yeah, Boise State's probably fair to be favored here. I think Air Force is a better team here we're getting three and a half points because it's on the blue turf and it's Boise and all this sort of thing. Give me Air Force plus three and a half think they win the game outright. Here's a Rambo Troy at Texas State. We have not said a word about Texas State this season. We are probably not going to say too many words about this. This is a pure Troy Fey. Troy's not good, and they are going on the road again, little sort of high flying ish offense or at least they attempt to be in Texas State. We're getting seven and a half points with a home underdog in the Sunbelt. I am all about that. Remember, Lafayette, Louisiana Lafayette this past week. We didn't know why they weren't favored or you know why that game wasn't a pickup against AB state. And guess what? Louisiana beat the brakes off app state. Thanks for coming out. Rhoda was we up next here on BYU and Baylor. Baylor might have found something here with this offense. Again, I'm not relying on BYU to just roll the ball on the ground like they did last week. Baylor mind is six here I think is a little bit short for a team that can play defense and has found something on offense. Kent State at Western Michigan I just watched Western Michigan get blown out at home by Ball State last week. And you're telling me Kent State that has been scrappy playing really good defense this year. They can't stay within seven against Western Michigan. Give me the seven there. Do not give me the seven or the seven and a half with the Miami Hurricanes. This program is in shambles North Carolina. Massively disappointing season but they're going to take advantage of this Miami team and they're going to beat the hell out of them. Miami is going down hard this weekend to North Carolina. Give me North Carolina minus the seven and a half not even afraid of the hook in this one UTSA our Road Runners we love them like we're on them a lot as underdogs. That's not where we're at here. Right? They're 18 point favorites against rice. Never gonna say much more about rice. This is again purely sort of a fade that UTSA is going to sleepwalk through this game after a tough one at Western Kentucky last week. We were on them then. And they covered it was great. They are not going to cover this one they will probably still win comfortably. Maybe a two touchdown tech game 17 and a half 18 too many points there. TCU at Oklahoma everybody's excited about the Red River rivalry victory I am like undefeated on pronouncing Red River rivalry. And Oklahoma is undefeated. But it has come at a price one they don't really know who's gonna start for the you know for a quarterback right or who who should be starting necessarily. And to. It's been by the skin of their teeth right they have yet to cover these big time numbers. TCU Gary Patterson he loves this spot. As the big underdog. Max Duggan is the guy I trust at the quarterback position in this game. Give me them plus the 13 and a half points, Horned Frogs plus 13 and a half, four more to go. This is our spot this is their Kansas State spot. Skylar Thompson comes back two weeks ago last minute type thing and he you know still was banged up. They didn't want him to run. We need Skyler Thompson to be able to run the football they still covered against Oklahoma we required a kickoff return for a touchdown to do so. But now they've had two weeks off here that the bye week last week. I expect Skyler to like the restrictor plate if you will to come off and he's going to be able to run the football. I don't trust the Iowa State cyclones at any point here. Again, I know it's rocktober with Brock Purdy as much as I like handicapping games with puns, no nonsense. happen in here Kansas State may win this game outright. I'll take the six and a half points. Ole Miss in Tennessee. I've never tried heroin. I imagine watching this game is going to be what that is like. We have a game here that the total is 83 points. What? Yeah, like it's gonna be off the rails stay away from the total like you don't want anything to do with that. I will take a couple extra points with Tennessee, I don't know that that's going to matter because in an 83 point game, two and a half points is nothing, right? But maybe it comes down to a two point conversion. We just saw it in the 5251 game involving Ole Miss last week. So I'll take those couple of points on the chance of that kind of thing happens on the exact opposite if I've never tried knitting on a Saturday night, but if you were the type to knit and wonder is it too early for me to go to bed army in Wisconsin is absolutely the game for you. That game will put you to sleep that game will be done early. 14 points with army in a game where I'm not sure how anybody scores. I will try that a million times over. And then finally NC State in Boston College we have talked quite kindly about NC State. We like NC State. This is a tough spot three point favorites at Boston College. Boston College plus three on Saturday night in Chestnut Hill 19 games in the Hurry up offense hopefully we do better than last week hopefully we do as well as we have done literally every other week this season. positive vibes my dude positive vibes. thank you as always for coming through and blessing us with the picks in the information and education as I always love to say, but if people want even more of your content, where can they find you on social media? Yeah, everything's over at at em Russ. Authentic em, Russ, authentic. All the stuff that I do over at the score, all the stuff I do here, everything just gets retweeted through there. So follow along there. And then we get to live it right celebration and commiseration, we get the ups and the downs, we get to talk about it out there. argue about who's good, who's bad. Now that we do a ton of arguing necessarily, it's more just kind of complaining to each other. Can you believe that happened? And this is can you believe that happened season in in sports in general, right. And whether it's baseball, hockey, or whatever, we're getting close to basketball season, that's going to be outstanding. You did a great job. By the way, listen to the NBA podcast earlier this week. That was so much fun with Matt Moore. Great job on that. One of the best times of the year I stopped short because I love my March Madness. I don't want to say it's the best time of the year. But it is one of the best times of the year. And I'm happy to join you here and talking about all things sports and sports betting. appreciate you stopping by to talk to you soon.
Sheldon:Thanks to Matt for coming on the pod and if you want to follow me online, you can do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. Also check out our recent NBA betting season preview in which we take a deep dive into all sorts of things including who's gonna win the MVP, who's gonna win the NBA title Coach of the Year Defensive Player of the Year, plus a bunch of player props as well. tuned into that wherever you get your podcasts that's DRF sports podcasts our latest episode before this one, but thank you for rockin with us on this brand new project for DRF sports. And if you might not be familiar with the letters DRF well, daily racing form has been around for over 100 years, giving you all of the horse racing information, data and analysis. But now we're taking over the entire sports world. So if you want coverage on every football game, as well as the NBA MLB and more, you got to head to DRF comm slash sports for all the details and insights because the site has all the data on every game including offensive and defensive stats, betting angles, line movements, key injuries, head to head record and team stats. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. So if you want to see what's trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. But if you want access to the raw data drf.com slash sports, that's where you need to be for all of the usual previews. Plus, we go in depth on this podcast however you want your betting information. We've got you covered. Again, my name is Sean Alexander and this is the DRF sports podcast. It's all we got for now but until next time, see
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