We recap the week that was in football, including the Titans' upset of the Bills, Winning/Losing Bets in OT and what it means when the public is cashing in BIG. All that plus a slew of NCAA and NFL Mid-Week Picks.
We recap the week that was in football, including the Titans' upset of the Bills, Winning/Losing Bets in OT and what it means when the public is cashing in BIG. All that plus a slew of NCAA and NFL Mid-Week Picks.
Welcome to the DRF sports podcast brought to you by DRF. Sports. America's most trusted name in horse racing is now providing sports bettors with exclusive data analytics previews videos and expert picks on all major sports. That smarter and have more fun doing it. It's the DRF sports podcast and now your host, Sheldon Alexander. Ready, Set bet.
Sheldon:This is the DRF sports podcast episode 14. Make sure you like and follow wherever you get your podcasts. I'm your host, Sheldon Alexander. A reminder we do this twice a week. On Tuesdays we recap the week that was and on Fridays it's the pics pod. Now luckily for me week six in the NFL ended with the Titans upset victory over the bills. But it was still a losing week for me with the fix. So it's very good that I have my guy Matt Russell coming back to break it all down with me. And on top of that, a good reminder to check out drf.com slash sports because that's where you can get all of the details, insights, including our power trends, line movement, team stats, and even more betting angles, including Scott Grambling in depth game previews, plus his weekly six pack in both the NFL and NCAA, so much great information there make sure you go to DRF comm slash sports. That's where you need to be every single day for all of the game previews plus, we go in depth in all of the games on this podcast. Also with the NBA season set to tip off make sure you check out our NBA season betting preview we've got all the market watch on futures from MVP to division winners to who's gonna win the NBA title Coach of the Year All that and more make sure you check us out before the NBA season tips offer right here at the start of the season. That again like and subscribe to this DRF sports podcast wherever you get your podcast basically however you want your betting information we've got you covered DRF comm slash sports but as mentioned on today's show I need a little bit of a pick me up so our guy Matt Russell is back to help me get right we're going to recap what just happened over the weekend and some crazy football action but also there's a bunch of games taking place midweek we've got your picks covered Luckily for you that pod starts right about now well well well we always knew there'd be weeks like this I had a massive blow up week but I'm still confident still ready for a bounce back and hey at least we can say we ended week six on a high note with the Titans outright victory over the bills plus I can speak to my dude Mr. Matt Russell How you doing man?
Matt:What's up man I'm alright i didn't i didn't have as much of a blow up week I'm sorry to hear that I was honestly I was pretty much dead even it was just kind of one of those weeks where you're moving stuff around and yeah we caught the you know maybe a little bit lucky however you want to sort of frame it with the Titans and the Titans moneyline yesterday and I think for the first time in my life so a couple of different things for me was actually a really low volume NFL Sunday I didn't have as much going as I normally do part of that obviously feels a little low volume because we had two games if you will for teams on by so two less games than we normally do but I didn't you know I didn't play the Thursday night game which we talked about last week but like Denver Las Vegas I didn't really want anything to any any part of that because who wants to lay that many points with Denver and who wants to back Vegas and all that sort of thing. Green Bay in Chicago like eventually I just kind of like backed my way Homer Simpson style into a hedge on that game so it's kind of avoiding that. But for the first time in my life, I look at my ledger for NFL Sunday and I lost exactly $1 after everything has shut down right like who know you sort of lose track or whatever but yeah, and like if you're anybody else, right? I'm recommending like create your own spreadsheet like use an app all of that sort of thing. But like I get through and it's like okay Titans money line people do and it's like minus one. Exactly. $1 so we paid $1 for a lot of entertainment this past Sunday and Monday of course and Monday
Sheldon:speaking of that Monday entertainment Titans as mentioned beating the bills and the one thing I mean I was actually all over in week six but more importantly you were also on the Titan so how did this one play out in your eyes?
Matt:I listened it's funny like and I literally it's funny like I tweeted out you see like NFL the football is just the funniest game, right? Because you're watching a game and like you're sitting there with you have Titans plus six I managed to get a plus seven in there as well. And you know, obviously some money line and So you're watching the game and it's just all buffalo right and they're just marching it up and down the field for that first quarter and early second quarter but the redzone yeah and you know I talk about like the concept of defense in 2021 and isn't just like oh man like shut him down like they can't move the ball like defense is now creating turnovers and red zone defense right holding teams to field goals because honestly when you hit a field goal now it just feels like it didn't do anything because it's just that's just the way the NFL is now and so they you know the bills go down they get a couple of field goals they've got you know, a billion plays to like four plays for Tennessee and it's like okay, it's six nothing feels like you're just an absolute fool forever fading this bill esteem even though the scoreboard still only says six nothing and then Derrick Henry just pops one off man and then he just keeps just running down the field and you're just laughing you're like Tennessee has made one play all day and that includes defensively I mean, I you know, suppose they made a couple plays to keep the bills out of the end zone in that first sort of 20 minutes of the game, but it's seven six it's just like okay, like this is how this stuff happens right? Like whether it's late game shenanigans with like the eagles and the Bucs last week or this you're just like yeah you know as you say right just take the points right like that's kind of the default move because just like the weirdest stuff happens and if you told me before the game that like the Titans are going to have somebody get injured basically on every play and there was going to be down to their absolute last defensive back and that Josh Allen would just throw at that guy the entire second half and then the Titans would somehow win I'd be like you're crazy but that being said at halftime, the Titans are down with three points and they're plus 300 on the money line live at halftime so I'm like you know what, all take a shot on that too because you know we're already here and it just feels like that weird type of a situation right and so you know, it's not really that explainable as far as like how this stuff happens because you're sitting there watching the game going like buffalo is gonna be fine right? And they probably wouldn't that game of Josh Allen doesn't slip and all that sort of thing but you just like land points man like it's just it's so it's just so not worth it in my mind like I understand that and listen this week was certainly indicative of this but like teams are going to cover point spreads I just don't know how they do it fell because it's just there's so much that has to go right for you For you to cover any sort of significant number in the NFL or football in general these days. There's just too much going on and too many too much weird stuff that can happen I
Sheldon:totally agree with you there man is super interesting. Another thing that was super interesting is I see this stat here that says NFL teams with 70% plus of the betting tickets this season 16 and six against the spread last two weeks seven and o against the spread the public is having their way that is a tweet from the Action Network now I asked you for those who might not be familiar with this whole the public and what's going on the public having a good week what does that mean to a dude like you my dude
Matt:it's usually not great like we talked about it you know, last week right where they had a big week this they had a bigger week right and like yeah, there's a concept out there like don't just fade the public all the time right and a lot of that is just kind of nonsense because not every game is created equal from a betting ticket percentage and a money ticket percentage etc etc right but as you know, I talked about there's kind of two or three games per week and a lot of them are in primetime where just by nature right if everybody is on one side there is going to be value created on that opposing side. Now again, the sportsbooks aren't just going to go absolutely nuts they could have very easily made buffalo minus seven and a half right? But Tennessee money would have come pouring in and for all the Joe public $100 betters out there, right? It takes 100 of those to get up to a certain amount whereas that certain amount can be bet by one guy right? And then that's evened out right so that's why these things never kind of get out of hand because that big money is always kind of keeping things in check. And so there's you know, sort of a concept or there's a you know, there's different sports books right? And you know, there are sharp sports books and there are not so sharp sports books because they limit people and only sort of recreational betters can get in there right? And there was a case yesterday where in the quote unquote sharper sports book, Tennessee was minus excuse me, Buffalo was minus six and then in the more recreational sports book, Buffalo was minus seven and that that was that existed all throughout the day. So you can bet buffalo minus six and Tennessee plus seven all throughout the day and just hope that it landed with buffalo you know, landing you know, six or seven, etc. So the point Is that like, that's kind of the indicator a lot of the times, right you can use a sports book that as long as you know like what their clientele is, what their maximum limits are, you can use that information to kind of figure out what side is the public versus the, you know, quote unquote, sharp side or non public side, and there isn't necessarily one or the other, right? Sometimes the public's on one team and then the sharp money if you will, just doesn't have any interest in that game in the same way that sometimes public has no interest in a one o'clock game. And the sharp money happens to like that, right? Like these are there's so many variables that you can't just use by you know, go by one rule, like I on Sunday made a last minute judgment call to bet on the Rams, because the number got down to minus seven. And with that was, you know, do you think that was public money necessarily coming in on the giants in a big way? I don't think so. Right? So there was a fading of that kind of sharp money concept, right? for you. It just has, it just has to make sense to you, right? Like, does this line move makes sense? Can you make that case when it came to like the giants, for example, is like, I don't really understand why this money is coming in. Like they have no players, right? Like Daniel Jones is still alive, but he's never good at home. Like that's by far the weirdest circumstances in all of sports. And so you just go, okay, like, I'm gonna hold my nose here and lay seven, seven and a half points here with the Rams, and hope it works out. And in that case, it did. And so, you know, at the end of the day, right, like, whether it's the, you know, stats like that, or like the worst NFL better, you know, having a big day, like, they're just sort of the things that exist. And that's what makes people confident about the NFL, right, everybody thinks they can beat the NFL. And yet, it beats because of these two, two types, you know, weeks and might be the same thing for week three, but over a long period of time, right? If you can get the best of the number, if you can get an extra half point here, an extra point there a key number here, key number there, like you're gonna be successful. And it doesn't really matter what the sort of betting percentages are. But like that is one of the elements that creates value, right? Like you can't deny that that's the case. And so a couple of games here and there last night, I think was certainly the case because I don't think the bill should have ever really been six six now. And certainly not seven point favorites at any point in time because that Tennessee Titans team just scrappy enough to get it done.
Sheldon:You know, it's so funny about you know, just talking about the public and public perception and how that affects numbers and bets. So obviously, like I post my full pics on social media, right, like just all along preseason. I'm trying to make pics for every single game, which is different than making bets on every single game. But it's funny because you have the people that will troll it someone messaged me and they're like, how did you take the How did you take the Texans? Like that's such a crazy bet, blah, blah, blah, like, how could you take the Texans covered? 10 points. And I'm like, What do you mean, like, well, they're a terrible team and blah, blah, I'm like, they're actually three and three against the spread this season.
Matt:Right? Well, that's what the point spreads for. Right? I want to be able to contact you because you know, got Wi Fi from his private island that he used because obviously he bet on the Colts minus 10, right all the world's money, like, I get this podcast and let me just get on my high horse per se, like this podcast is free, my content over the score is free. And like you get into the comment section and like, it's funny, man, it's wrong. And you're like, you know, like this whole thing. You can express your opinion in the form of wagering, right, like First of all, it's free. Second of all, it's good. We win right over the long term more than more than we lose. And it's free. Like agree, disagree, but like why comments, right? If you disagree, like that's what the money is for, like, just go in bed. It This isn't like some secret thing that like nobody can do. Like everybody can do it. Just go bet it and then like, text me from your private islands. But like, if you don't, then you can't tell me after the fact that it was such a terrible call. That's what the point spread is for. Right? That is the great equalizer.
Sheldon:But that's why I just found it so funny, because it was just like, how could you be betting on the Texans? Like, how can you be betting on Carson Wentz to lay 10 points? I mean, what are we talking about right now? Right? Like, I'm like, yeah, I'm just having to pick one side or the next. And that's where it is, right? But what I meant, though, by that whole point is just the perception of it all because I was like, against the spread. They're better than the chiefs. Yeah. And when you say that to someone who's just like the recreational better, they're like, oh, wait a second, right. So this is why I enjoy doing this pod because I'm learning the same way as we continue to do this. And that's what I hope to bring to the viewer as well, to teach them certain ways. But one thing that was really huge that, you know, maybe the biggest lesson of it all is sometimes it's just football, and I say that because there's a huge back and forth affair between the cowboys and Pats. Now the Cowboys win by six in ot to cover a three and a half point spread and why your beats like this so bad I mean I'm just asking for a friend I mean not sure in theory if someone was on the pads
Matt:yeah well listen like my my minus one in my ledger for for this week would have been a lot different right if the Patriots cover and certainly if they win because as we talked about I had a money line I have all of that sort of thing right and so just the sequence of events that had to happen in order to get that game to overtime and then obviously in overtime where like a guy is getting, you know, illegal hands to the face on a pass and it's like that's at the very least pass interference or I guess technically the very least illegal hands to the face for a five yard penalty and automatic first down it's like that's the that's always documented man like the razor's edge right it's like a lot of times that gets called and maybe you say it's a 5050 call maybe say it's a 6040 call one way or another but either way like it's pretty close either way and and you know just based on the fact that whether it gets called or not and if it gets called maybe the Patriots go down and they get a field goal right and then a cowboys touchdown still wins it but they end up covering and that's after we talk about you know, Mack Jones interception when the Patriots really just need like a first down or to to kill all the clock then you know the two point conversion after the born touchdown and like that's a 5050 play that if that's a one point patriots you know lead than the Cowboys could win the game with you know by two points and cover the spread anyway the point is there's a lot going on there and like it's just a lot had to happen for the Cowboys to win that by six but that's the thing right like the number of wins for the general public all you hear is like well the Cowboys are going to kill the Patriots there's so much better like the Cowboys are fantastic because they beat up on Philly Carolina and the giants and the Giants without Daniel Jones in the second half right like that's what their reputation is getting built upon. Yeah, and so you know, and what people don't understand like a road game against the Patriots is a lot different than those three games and so people pile in and the line comes down and the line comes down from four to three and a half right which tells you the big money these quote unquote sharper money, etc etc. Right and we talked about this last week, my number was like Dallas minus one and a half. So I certainly wasn't saying like the Patriots are definitely going to win or that like they had you know that they should be favored or anything along those lines. It's just like, the number can't be over three like it should not be over three and if it is over three, we're going to bet it and then whatever happens happens, right? Yeah. And that happened and so that's it, you know, when you talk about like the public sort of getting all of the breaks, at least in that first, you know, the first two windows of Sunday certainly wasn't the case for Sunday Night Football, but like, you just kind of shrug your shoulders and go like that's just gonna happen and like we dodged bullets a lot of the times because, you know, games go to overtime, where we are on the plus three and a half because by nature, that's where we find a lot of the value in those, you know, not necessarily a touchdown favorite, or touchdown underdog, but more than a field goals and you go Okay, we went on a touchdown for us. We went on a field goal for us. We went on a field goal for them, but we lose on a touchdown for them. Doesn't mean it was the wrong side. Right? Yeah, like if you're sitting there going like cowboys had it the whole way or like What a dumb play you get a message for somebody saying like how could you take the Patriots it's like, Josh the game like everything had to go your way for that to end up being you know, a cover in the end, certainly the second half and overtime.
Sheldon:Speaking of overtime, though, there was another game that went to overtime that very few might have anticipated. And that's the Steelers needing to massive plays from TJ watt to win by three in overtime against Geno Smith and the Seahawks was like as my weekend progressed and just watching my NFL Sunday bets just like flop. This was just funny to like sit and watch because I'm like, Geno Smith is balling out here like No, he's not. But he was doing that now. Yeah, to just like, be like, Oh, this is what's gonna happen. Right? What was your takeaway for that game? Because also, there was a survivor pick as well. So a lot on the line there and again, TJ watt making big big big boy plays to win that game.
Matt:Yeah, let's take people behind the curtain here a little bit right You and I are co shareholders in a in a survivor entry in the world's largest survivor contest, the world's largest legal survivor contest, and this is the first chance we've had to talk about this game because again, you know whether it was the week before with Minnesota barely getting by Detroit or this one. And you know, and by the way, like a tie means you're out right and so like I'm like, Oh my God, this game is gonna go too tight because you mentioned like Joe Smith balling out and it was like, it's all relative, right? Because like the Steelers are 14 nothing and then the second half starts and you're like, 14 might be good. Like we might be okay here with just 14 this might be a 14 to seven type of a game and then yeah like the Seahawks are able to move the ball and Pittsburgh can tackle all of a sudden because I believe they thought they had won the game already and it's just a complete horror show the last couple of minutes and then it's like, Alright, we're going to overtime and then the Steelers It was the first time in my life I've ever wanted a team to lose the coin toss in overtime because I'm like I rather Seattle just get the ball because I believe the Steelers have a better chance of forcing them to punt and give the ball to the Steelers that like the 40 yard line which then means they only need about 25 to 30 yards to get into at least a long field because the only guy I have faith him on the Steelers offense is Chris Boswell
Unknown:and is an incredible center
Matt:yeah right who like at one point had the add the shakes himself a few years back so like you know and then Seattle wins the coin toss whatever reason Russell Wilson says they're called the coin toss. I've never seen that before. And it's like there has to be a penalty or something. I was like do we get 10 yards to start this overtime because like that's going to come in handy at some point and then Seattle actually gets a big play and they're on the brink of field goal position and then they punt and then the Steelers I'm like the Steelers aren't driving this 5060 yards to get into field goal range and of course they don't write they do everything to sort of screw that up and they punch in you're like okay it's over and then our in our sweet angel from above. TJ watt comes flying in and forces the forces a fumble so like one of my takeaways from that game like I'm glad I never have to see the Steelers again in any meaningful way right like the idea of them laying points against anybody here to for going forward and like they have a game and a couple of weeks against the lions like I'm not saying we have to bet the lions but I'm saying we have to not bet the Steelers in that game. Like I'm just glad to sort of never have to deal with because there's 32 teams in the NFL. Right? And so you can ignore one entirely if you want to and still have a very active Thursday Sunday Monday in your life when it comes to betting the NFL and that is absolutely my plan with this Steelers team.
Sheldon:I watched that team and I feel so bad for najee Harris I'm just like that guy has a sore throat until like the following Saturday. They better not make him practice they better not make him do anything for the whole week that his body can just recover because he's getting just tough tough yards
Matt:this poor guy is getting absolutely drilled and he's not getting any help from any coach apparently
Sheldon:yeah the lesson here though as you mentioned I'm gonna have a tough time taking the Steelers laying points going forward this never so there's there's the angle there on that one but a couple games that weren't that back and forth as we thought they might be but instead they were huge blowouts the Chargers get pumped by the Ravens and then the cards have their way with the Browns which results surprised you the most and you know what can we take away from those results going forward?
Matt:Yeah it's funny right like we always we talk about you know I've been talking about this for years but like the idea of like when you when a bat and you had and you kind of nail it right like the way we did with the Ravens over the chargers and the idea of like hey charges are really popular underdogs has driven the line well below where it kind of should be at three and a half now it's down to two and a half at cetera got to take the Ravens and then they end up just blowing out the charger so the whole like oh I better get the best of the numbers and goes out the window because they would have covered you know a billion different numbers and it's like we never kind of go back and be like yeah, we nailed it we're right it's like okay, we were right nothing surprised us obviously we were surprised by how badly the Ravens beat the Chargers but it was just a terrible spot right it was just one of these situations where like sometimes you just don't have it and sometimes the fourth down decisions don't necessarily go your way and they will let you know going forward on fourth down is never 100% you know theory right? It's reading where you are in the game who you are playing and how many points you're going to need and how badly you need to keep possession we've talked about that on the positive side for the chargers and now we have to talk about it from the negative side and so you know it is it is what it is like we nailed it and I said like this would be this is either way I'm probably betting you know or leaning towards chargers the rest of the season and nothing changed right all that's doing is creating a little value on the Chargers going forward and I'm obviously completely content with that as for the Cardinals and the the Browns This is a little bit different with a lot of blowouts this week right and every other blow including the Ravens and chargers which is the one other one that maybe you wouldn't necessarily expect I get a lot of covers from like the quote unquote better teams and relatively easily so but you go into the box score and you Okay, what happened in this game? How did it get to this point, obviously we watch it and when a team throws an interception it looks bad and like the other team is dominant or when a team scores a touchdown, right? Like we feel that and we just feel that that team is dominant. So there's like seven I believe blowouts right? And every one of those except for one had a match discrepancy in yards per play and think about it this way yards per play. It's per play. It's on a per play basis if you line up against the other team over the course of 6070 plays are you better than them? Right? Like are you doing better offensively than the other team is doing offensively against you and sometimes this stuff can be skewed and sometimes it's not but the Cardinals and the Browns very evenly played from a yards per play standpoint right when you're in the middle of it and you're watching like Baker Mayfield act like Will Ferrell doing a cat impression with the football where he's batting it back and forth in his hands It feels like and of course the ball is going to come out or he throws an interception that wasn't a Cardinals player jumping around making a great read it was Baker just missing the throw by a lot and throwing it right to a guy right and then you can get into the weeds with Carl Jeffords crew that was a rough scene when literally rough because he's calling roughing the passers on like just some of the most absurd stuff ever. And like the Cardinals and again this sounds like I'm bashing the Cardinals but like you know that I liked the Cardinals right like we were on them to beat the Rams we were on them in the first game of the year to beat the Titans this isn't that but like we're responsible for trying to make good bets going forward in the season like that is literally my job. So I have to look at this from a more impartial view. And like if the Cardinals are going to rely on converting a third and 21 into scoring a touchdown that is like a millimeter away from the defensive back like Yeah, that's a great play by Hopkins but like that's the play you're gonna rely on repeating over and over and over how is that any different than the Chargers going for it on fourth down every time right? That's not going to be repeatable every single time and the play for the Cardinals isn't going to be repeatable, like Hopkins like Jukes out for Browns defenders are you going to rely on the Browns defenders looking like you know, I would say college but like that's almost that's too flattering. Like literally like eight year olds right? Like they didn't even touch him they had him surrounded and they didn't even touch him and that's a third downplay I believe and like that could have been a field goal right and so you know, the Browns made it relatively close or sort of cosmetically relatively close by getting a hail mary at the end of the first half. So I understand that but like if I said to you like blind resume, like a guy, you know, had 240 yards passing and he had like six yards rushing. You know, who was that player? It'd be a while before you guessed Kyler Murray was that player because he happened to have four touchdowns right which isn't really any different than like the jameis Winston first game of the year right? It's like Yeah, he had four or five touchdowns it's like well he only had 200 yards passing and it's like yeah cuz they got into you know touchdown range if you will and that's how they converted those touchdowns well did they run the ball you know all over the Browns? No, not necessarily right like I'm you know they did a little bit obviously but it wasn't the reasons that you like the Cardinals going forward like Kyler Murray high flying offense, it's like now they turn the Browns over because Baker Mayfield was horrendous in that game. And they got pretty fortunate on a couple of you know, penalty calls and some high leverage plays that read their way like I said, the 1321 etc, etc. Right? And so it's like, it's not that I'm not buying into the Cardinals. It's just that they're going to be overrated because they are this flashy sort of concept team, that it was impressive that they won by not necessarily being flashy, but you know browser without their two two offensive tackles. So that's creating the pressure on Mayfield. We know when Mayfield gets pressure on him, he's a mess, no Nick Chubb. And then Kant goes out, like a lot of stuff went badly for the browns, and went well for the Cardinals. And so I can't use much of this going forward to just blindly back the Cardinals and every game they play for the rest of the season. That's just not going to be the case. And I still think that they're probably going to be at around or below 500 against the spread the rest of the year, because again, the last three weeks, right all three wins against decent teams. Every one of those weeks, they have not been the better team on a yards per play mano a mano standpoint and that's concerning.
Sheldon:Yeah, it's an interesting thing to look ahead to and especially when you add in the context of the previous few weeks, because if you remember, last week, we were talking about their matchup against the niners tre Lance's first start. And the niners were in the red zone the niners are right there that could have gone a completely different way. And then how reviewing the Cardinals and I get it and we'll get to the Browns a little later on because they're to Thursday night or so we will definitely talk about them going forward and what you know, we take away from this past Sunday's game, but you're talking there about the range of the cards right? And it makes me kind of think of a couple other teams, just in terms of you're looking at their record, and then you're looking at what that means going forward and kind of the way that you were talking about the cards. I kind of feel the same way about the Packers, just because it's like, okay, the records good. Okay, they're winning games. Yeah, we're seeing the highlights of air. Rogers talking trash to the, the fans and all that, but those games are really, really close and like switching on like, one play, but the score makes it look way different than the actual game played out. Do you know what I'm saying? Is that yeah,
Matt:totally man, like we saw, like, you know, the packers are my team my steady team, right? Because I don't believe that they are quote unquote that good, right? Like I don't have them an 80 out of 100, right, I just have them a steady like 6566 like they're gonna be out here, they're gonna do what they do, but they're going to perform at that level, every single game, whereas we saw the Chargers, you know, for three weeks were like they're playing at a really high level, and maybe their average should be 75. But I didn't necessarily buy into that, right. And so we had to kind of keep them in the high 60s, if you will, to sort of use numbers to kind of frame this really well. And the idea is like, yeah, they can play to a 75. Maybe they can play to an 80. Right, that's their range, the top end of their range. But as we saw against the Ravens, they can certainly play into the 60s, the 50s, you know, who knows how you'd want to sort of describe that, right? Like, if you're not giving the Ravens any credit at all, that was certainly a sort of 40s level performance from the Chargers, I give the Ravens some credit, right in forcing the Chargers to do what they do, or do what they did. But like, look at the chiefs, right? And so whether it's the chiefs of the Packers, right, they those teams cover this week, and it almost buys you like 234, maybe with the Chiefs the rest of the season, you know, the idea of like, well, we have to bet on the Chiefs every week, because we've talked about there against the red record being like one in 14 for 15, straight, you know, for 15 week, a 15 week period. And so it's the same thing with the Packers, but like looking at the Chiefs in the first half of that game, you're watching that game and you're going like we're getting the 60 version of the Chiefs here, right? Like we are getting the really bottom end version. And then at halftime, I don't know flip switch, you know, use whatever sort of terminology you want there. But in the second half, you're getting the 8085 version of the chiefs and so it's like in one game, you're getting really the both polar opposites when it comes to the chiefs, right? So the you have to sort of consider on a week to week basis, high range, low range. And then like the Chiefs you're like, well at any given time, but you know, the range goes from really high to really low. So I think the packers are really tight. I think the chiefs are kind of frenetic in one game, you know, chargers and browns are another good you know, a good example. And so if you think that Cardinals for example, are like playing to the best of their range, which actually don't think right that's the good news for the Cardinals it's like as much as I'm sort of worried about these three, those the last three games and limb getting overvalued, like that also means they might have a better game in them, right where they are two three yards for playing better than their opponent. So and that might happen this week because they're, you know, heavily favored against your Houston Texans. And so, you know, I just that's the concept that you have to sort of understand when especially when you look at these blowouts right because like, and it's the same thing for the bad teams, right? The Giants can play up to their best of their ability and now maybe the best of their ability is 4045. But sometimes they can play down to it if again, injuries obviously a factor and matchup is a factor. But like the giants, for example, were a 25 this week, the lions were the absolute worst that they could be at a 20 this week, Houston, you know, weren't necessarily as bad they ran into a Colts team and I think it's becoming very interesting this season. And so you know, whether it's bad team good team or mediocre team these teams like anybody else like human beings, right? This podcast, this might be the lower end of my range, right? This might not be my best work I've certainly probably had better shows. And so like that's the concept we all have good days and bad days. And it's sort of simplistic to say but like, that's part of the deal here with a lot of these teams but like a guy like Aaron Rodgers will sort of secure things for you. And mean even if your defense isn't playing very well or your offense isn't that great, he will make enough plays to certainly stay within a very tight range of expectation on a week to week basis.
Sheldon:I like that and you mentioned making plays and it makes me want to switch gears here to the NCAA because there's a team from Iowa that wasn't really able to make plays and they've been relying on a bunch of big plays so far this season in their crazy run so far, but they were upset by Purdue my question to you is is this really end Iowa's chances that making a college football playoff if you had one of those features there
Matt:yeah bad news for our crew out in Iowa and God knows we love our gang of nine well unfortunately that's the case right like that's that's the situation and listen it was gonna get trickier to for Iowa down the stretch here. And again, they play on the router razor's edge right where they don't have you know, an explosive element to their game and we just talked about like the idea of like, it's 2021 you know, whether it's NFL football or college football, right? Like it isn't, you know, the defense stopping you and all that sort of thing. Like that's not really how football Works anymore. And so I was playing this really unique style that you know if things go right and if they're able to turn, you know the other team over like they did against Indiana or Iowa State like that's fine. And then if Penn State's quarterback, for example gets hurt, right, they're able then lock it down and Penn State can't score anymore. And eventually I was going to get enough points just on sort of field position and like a player here, you know, to hear there, but they got thoroughly beat by Purdue Purdue is it more explosive offensive team, right? They had guys running free in the secondary, they were able to hit on big plays. And that was the difference in that game. And that's the thing where it's like, okay, we can get all caught up in the standings. And like I never look at the standings, because the standings are an indicator of what's happened in the past. And what we need to do as betters is look towards the future. And when you look at Iowa, you just go, I just don't know how sustainable this necessarily isn't there going to be matchups that don't necessarily work out for them. That was one here in this case that I added myself on Saturday had a little money line to it, too. And I know that that's not a brag by any means because I didn't you know, we didn't get that out into the podcast in time, which is unfortunate. But you know, and a bad call on my part, bye, bye sort of not cluing into this sort of really troublesome matchup for Iowa, you know, later on in the week, but it's like you can't ever be surprised when a team like that plays these games in the teams and in the early 20s that sometimes it just might not go their way and that was the case for Iowa and of course they fall out of contention I think here for the college football playoff.
Sheldon:As we go to teams who are are in contention for the college football playoff Bama bounces back in a big way. Georgia is just putting in work but Kentucky covers which is interesting because it's it's still me viewing Kentucky, I'm always gonna view them as a basketball school obviously so to see them is like see them spicy in college football is like Okay, okay, but sec what's going on there just with those two teams and yeah, they're just continued dominance here and,
Matt:and and right, like, you know, speaking of things that are quote unquote, obvious or whatever, but you get a little bit scared away by 17 points spread, like Alabama bouncing back, we talked about the idea of you know, the mike Leach spread offense being kind of the perfect offense for the Alabama defense to bounce back with, right because you know that balls coming, if you have any sort of scouting whatsoever, you're going to be able to read a fair amount of those plays in advance and that's going to cause turnovers and Will Rogers is versus just throwing the ball to Alabama, not even really his fault, right? Because he is supposed to make the certain throws that Alabama knows are coming and that turns into an absolute bleep kicking on Saturday, Georgia it's just you're watching the team and you're like I tweeted this out I was like honestly I don't know like we do the thing could like Georgia beat you know, an NFL team or like when there's a really good team or like you need probably better offense if you're Georgia to beat that beat NFL team and they would never anyway and so my point was like okay, I don't know that Georgia's defense is better than an NFL defense. But if you literally just change the uniforms with like the Chiefs if you just put them in chiefs uniforms, and sent them out they're all one through 11 and the depth that they have in the front seven Yeah, it's not gonna look any different. Right? Like they might it might be like, oh, who's the bad defense on that NFL team and you would be like, a bunch of college kids like we didn't tell you but we switched George's defense with Kansas City's defense just to see how it would look and like Yeah, it looks not great. But like it doesn't look like they're not an NFL defense because yeah, the dudes that they have on that team and so you know, we talked Tuesday's a lot of time but like what's the bad beat of the week and you know we were eat that easily for us. That was the Patriots game. If this was there to be bad whim Kentucky calling timeout for one last play being able to hit the ball into the end. And you know what, speaking of insane though, is you know, we talked about this game and on Friday show and Kentucky I said you said like 21 and a half points like is that too many or whatever and I was like well it was too many at 23 and a half away it was early on in the week. Right and I'm like and we watched and between Tuesday for example and Friday we saw the number go from 23 and a half to 21 and like this and this I was gonna call it the NFL betting but like this football betting thing, man, like how it's sitting on 23 points at in the last bit where if you had laid that or if you've taken the 23 and a half early on in the week, you're like, I don't even care if they score this touchdown like it doesn't matter to me, but if you're like me you got a little compassion for people kind of showing up late maybe on a Sunday you're like 21 and a half good enough because who thinks the game is gonna land 22 and 23 right like that just doesn't make you know a lot of sense or doesn't seem like a high probability situation. So like that was really nice for everybody who back to Kentucky. We Cuz that game was competitive 14, seven and a half and all that sort of thing. But it's incredible, right? The 23 and a half down to 21 and a half and it's sitting at 23 on the final drive for Kentucky are wondering if they're just gonna kick a field goal. Like we're this close, I think honestly, and this is a sort of a bigger sort of picture thing. But like, we are this close to teams doing that to kicking field goals, because they absolutely know the number and don't want to risk not punching it in for the touchdown. Because all you wouldn't need it right was a field goal to get that to 20. A to a 20 point game. And honestly, who cares if it's a 20 point game, or a 1617 point game, right? Like, what difference does that make, as long as you're covering for the fan base for the alumni, etc, right? That's how like, we're getting very close to that being a regular thing. Within a couple years, I think
Sheldon:something that maybe some people might be hoping is a regular thing was your man's Caleb Williams, getting some action here. And that kind of segues us nicely into the Heisman watch. Yeah, Caleb Williams looked really good. But talk to me about that your update this week, because we've been talking about a few different names for the last few weeks. And that continues to develop.
Matt:Yeah, so our portfolio includes Desmond Ridder from before the season 60 to one, right. And the idea being like, if there are no standout, you know that much better than everybody else type players, if Cincinnati can even just be undefeated. And maybe that means that they get into the cultural playoff, maybe that doesn't, but we didn't want to bet them to win the national title because they're just not going to be ga and they're not going to beat Alabama. Now I'm starting to waver a little bit on that concept, because that's how good Cincinnati is looking these days. That being said, right like that still stands to reason that maybe if they're undefeated, Desmond Ritter gets sort of an MVP type candidacy, right? Whereas numbers aren't necessarily as good as you know, a traditional Heisman Trophy winner would be but if there's no other real awesome competition, and Bryce young, and Matt corral, they're just still sitting there as the top two favorites. But like, honestly, the most vulnerable Heisman favorites, I think you can possibly find. So you're sitting there with jasmine, we're sitting there with Bijon Robinson who again, Texas loses again this week. And below is another game that they were winning comfortably 17 to three, they're going in for another score, and they throw a pick six, and all of a sudden, the landslide happens and Oklahoma State somehow stays undefeated. That was brutal for Texas backers. But BJ Robbins has got Gus Johnson yelling like ca in New York, right? Like, get ready. Be john Robinson. It's gonna be that and it's just like, and it's like, yeah, like that's the stuff you need, right? You need hype. And if Gus Johnson's going to be the hype, man, like, there are worse hype man's than Gus Johnson right? And hype men, I guess. Problem is right. If a team keeps losing games, and they keep, you know, not being able to salt away second halves, fourth quarters of these games, then there's going to be obviously sort of a downturn on the beach on Robinson. You know, hype train, if you will. And then our guy Kenny Pickett, we talked about him 40 to one, he's up to 21 and one from a touchdown to interception ratio, by far the best in the country. Big comfortable win against Virginia Tech last week, and they get Clemson this coming week right which is another sort of feature presentation type game. And if he can have a nice game and a victory they are favored by the way Pitt is favored over Clemson, that's the world we live in. And and it's not even though it's not even insane, right? If they can get if they can do well there, but the wild card is, as you mentioned, right. Caleb Williams comes in and he's Anthony Richardson, right? Like we talked about Anthony Richardson for Florida thinking he would come into the game against Alabama and he doesn't because Florida hung just enough in that game to be able to you know, keep him at bay. He had a you know, hamstring, groin injury or whatever it was. And and now of course, by the way, like Anthony Richardson comes in against LSU and is like electric, and he's probably going to now start the rest of the way for the Gators. Problem is gators season is over and now you have Caleb Williams coming in and who would have thought Spencer rattler like a favorite for the Heisman. Everybody's awesome in the Oklahoma offense. Except for Spencer rattler apparently as he's bad, so bad that you know he loses the job halfway through the season. And so now the Heisman watch includes Williams, who's sitting there kind of reopened here at 22 one, and it's honestly it's just a matter of Do you think you can give the Heisman to a player who showed up halfway through the season? Because if it's just based on performance, and just based on stats, again, everybody but Spencer rattler can put up stats Jalen hertz Baker Mayfield Kyler Murray like etc. So he's gonna put up the stats, we just watched him do it against TCU right and if he does that for what, six more games, you know, and they're undefeated and they and you know, we've been looking for the star quarterback, right for the star quarterback putting up numbers. burgers taking a team to the college football playoff Oklahoma's undefeated and the one thing that was keeping other teams in games against them was the quarterback play. Well if that's just not going to be the case the problem is like are we overreacting to one game against TCU? Maybe we are but at the same time right like it's really just gonna come down to Kenny's voters of which there are so so many of them, right? This isn't 30 people making a call here this is like 3000 people or whatever to make a call here. How many of them are going to be willing to say, okay, he only played half the season but that's good enough for us because he absolutely racked up stats and they're going to the college football playoff. It's such a it's it's a Heisman Trophy watch that was kind of boring and we were trying to take advantage of it's boring this has just gotten absolutely off the rails here with Keller Williams getting into the mix.
Sheldon:Speaking of getting into the mix, I love getting into the mix to our mid week picks Hey, let's do it. I got bars NCAA action here let's start with Coastal Carolina minus four at Appalachian State.
Matt:Yeah midweek app state right like this is a thing that just exists in our lives every single week and we fade them and then we win money right? Marshal plus seven you know that was a funny game on that Thursday night a few weeks ago and then we had a Louisiana last week and we were sitting there going like I don't understand not even necessarily why Louisiana is not favored like how is this a pickup How is this excuse me How is this not a pickup How is this up to three and a half going up to five like all of this made absolutely no sense to me so you know we did we bet Louisiana and you know what they did they beat the brakes off of AB state because we don't think app state is very good now Coastal Carolina comes to town and this line was crazy this thing opened in Las Vegas at like pickup I think even our state might have been minus one and everybody looked around and said like are you not paying attention this app state team is not very good and now we're looking at minus four so it's one of those things where you look at you go man that pickup would have been nice right it's like oh we did kind of miss out and like listen how many people were available you know able to get that like did you have to be in line at the hotel to be able to get that money like did that ever come anywhere near any sort of offshore you know North American book you know i don't think it necessarily did right and so we've watched this thing move up to minus three minus four I'm certainly not bad nap state right like that's just not my that's just I can't be like well I don't think app states very good all season long and then be all of a sudden like Okay, it's time to hit app state that said home underdog weeknight against a massive you know, big team in the conference in Coastal Carolina. Like it does feel like a situation that normally we would get ourselves involved in. So unfortunately a lot of the value sucked out of that game on Wednesday because it's a Wednesday game and like I'd love to bet it and get locked in on a little Sun Belt action. little fun belt Wednesday, but like, again, value sucked right out of that game and now you're delaying points with a team on the road and that's not necessarily what I'm looking to do with my Wednesday.
Sheldon:Talking about land points with the team on the road Louisiana Lafayette minus 18 Arkansas State Whoo.
Matt:And this is it right? Like this is this is the fun of this. This is the fun of the fun belt right? This is the fun of the Sunbelt, it's like okay, we recall Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State having the big number right was 14 something along those lines and being like you know what? Arkansas state's garbage. I'm going to lay this number. Yeah, not as likely to lay at this week and here's why. Last time we were like okay Arkansas State we talked about the travel that they had and that they're coming home and they're probably just gonna be completely wiped out for this game against a Coastal Carolina team that could absolutely run it up on them. Louisiana can run it up but they just kind of off of that win against app state right like that's a pretty high like if we're talking ranges right? works the same in college college kids have a lot wider of a range than NFL teams do. It's never gonna be as good as Louisiana just beating the breaks off of upstate last week and they can sort of take this game off and still win this game comfortably. Whereas Arkansas State it's never gonna be as bad as the last time we faded Arkansas State where they want or they lost, you know, by a billion. So if I absolutely had to here we're talking about 18 point home underdog. I think you I would take Arkansas State here and just absolutely hold my nose and hope this turns into like a 3521 you know, 3821 type of game where like, again, Arkansas State capable of getting the last touchdown, and that might be that situation right where they are down 24 points, and they punch in a late touchdown to get this thing under the number. That's the only way I would play it because again, this is just a tough spot for Louisiana Lafayette playing 18 points on the road against anybody in the Sunbelt.
Sheldon:So let's keep things moving here. There's a couple more bets we want to get to Florida Atlantic minus seven at Charlotte.
Matt:Yeah, this number a little bit too high for me. Not something that I'm dying to get involved in but if I absolutely had to Charlotte plus seven would be the play there. Florida Atlantic little little schizophrenic if you will. This season and so yeah legislating seven on the road with for Florida Atlantic is not something I want to do in that one. There's a couple other Thursday games I'll get to really really quickly here before we get into the main the main course if you will, Jillian and SMU SMU they can score they can put these points up and I'm not sure that two lane Can I would actually probably take SMU here minus 13 and a half to you know giving the two touchdowns there but the underdog of this of this whole crew that I actually feel good about as weird as this is to say San Jose State play is minus four and a half on the road to you and Lv and San Jose state's getting some credit here for playing tough with San Diego State that is a undefeated somehow San Diego State team last week at home but like that game was grim I can't it's like six six type of a football game here. You nlb hung right in there last week. They've got a slot a giant slot machine on the sideline like you've heard of the turnover chain and like the you know, touchdown x or like whatever all these teams are doing you know v has a slot machine a big one on the sideline like how much fun is that? I think they are live to win this game on Thursday you MLB is certainly a play that I'm going to be making with maybe the little money line sprinkle as well. A little slot machine action for ourselves. Maybe we get lucky pulling the one armed bandit on that one.
Sheldon:I love it. And of course there's more on Thursday night for us to deep dive into but before I get your take Don't forget to head to DRF comm slash sports for all the betting angles and power trends. And of course, the NFL previews from our guy Scott Grambling who writes ahead of this Broncos and browns matchup on Thursday night comes with this little bit of fire stat here says Cleveland is three and eight as they weighed against the spread over the past calendar year which includes oh and seven against the spread when favored over an AFC opponent. Right kind of like whoa okay, that is a statistic but as we look ahead to this Thursday night, Broncos at Brown Browns are favored by three and a half coins the over under is set at 42 and a half but to me that stat is incredible and I was already leaning Broncos just because I think the Browns are just beat up and Baker we get it you're hurt you see my guys show up to the presser he's got the huge sling on and he's like it's like we get it you're hurt my dude cool sit out then if you're that hurt right but either way short week I mean I can't like the Browns in this game can i
Matt:nobody seems to write like this open five and is now down to three and a half with like extra juice on the underdog so we're headed for three I think and I think that makes sense because again we talked like underdogs you know favorites etc and like a lot of times we're afraid of the favorite right we don't want to deal with the underdog because we're afraid of the favorite. What am I supposed to be afraid of when it comes to the Browns at this point now again a lot of this comes down to the injury report we'll start with Baker I actually rather Baker play than case Keenum and honestly like at this point right like case Keenum I think right this second is a better quarterback for what the Browns usually want to do now I say you usually want to do and that means you know there's a very prominent podcast out there that calls it chanting right shoving hunt right if neither of those guys go hunt is definitely not going to go Chuck didn't play on Sunday and so he may be banged up so we might have like multiple sling guys if you will, out there. And to me the more important one in ones is are the offensive line injuries for the browns, right? Like what am I afraid of when it comes to the Browns if if Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb, Kareem hunt and healthy Baker Mayfield are not involved in this game and the offensive line which is like what makes that team go right and that's the unfortunate part as much as we talked about the browns, you know, and the Cardinals being from a per play basis predictive going forward like a little bit closer than the score indicated. The reason that game wasn't close was because Baker Mayfield was getting his shoulder mangled because his offensive line couldn't protect him. Well that's not gonna work against the Denver Broncos and kudos to you and the good news and all of this is we didn't lead with Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog stats right like that's normally how all of this start this stuff begins but we've been anti Teddy Bridgewater the last few weeks because he's been a favorite. Right? It hasn't fit the Teddy Bridgewater trend here. Well Guess who's back back again, Teddy is back to cover a point spread as an underdog, right with his you know, Standing ability to do so you're just supposed
Unknown:to finish that with tell your friends
Matt:I haven't I haven't technically finished my thought so spoiler alert tell your friends you know what I mean so like this is this is how Teddy Bridgewater works right? It's like nobody believes that he can win the game and he barely does or does it right and so yeah like what am I afraid of when it comes to the Browns it's certainly not the defense and you know what the Broncos ran into a Raiders team we always thought you know talk about range talk about motivation talking about embarrassment being the best motivation for a professional team they were embarrassed by their coach they were embarrassed by their performance the week before against the bears and they came out in Denver Broncos game like a house on fire the Raiders were going you know again, hindsight 2020 etc etc right but like that was an emotional high in that game in mile high and now it's travel second road game short week like none of that stuff is necessarily is like it's going to create some value on the Broncos right it's like they're going on the road they got a short week they just got smoked by the Raiders and that's why this number open five but when you actually look at the injury report what's in the Broncos aren't cleaned from an injury report standpoint either but it doesn't have the same cluster effect we're getting into the sixth seventh and eighth best offensive lineman playing so injury report really important in this game. I would just go moneyline honestly I would wait maybe this goes down to three two and a half I think that'll be a really good indicator if you will about what the sort of injury levels are here when it comes to the Browns Don't be afraid maybe a baker Mayfield gets ruled in they might actually get more credit and this line might get to a sort of cleaner three and a half I'm all for that like let Baker play right and so yeah I'm Broncos are nothing here. Definitely some money line here as well on the Broncos who we can now get back in and buying after having to sell for a few weeks.
Sheldon:shots to Teddy two gloves for sure. Matt, thanks as always for coming through and blessing me with this Tuesday therapy session that I definitely needed as we try and get back to some winning ways though this upcoming week slash weekend. Where can people find you online on social media? Yeah,
Matt:at em Ross authentic, right. Everything gets tweeted through there, my stuff that I do the score, sometimes even tweeted the comment section a little bit, which is always a riot. And everything that we do here and you know, just breaking stuff down sometimes in a very sarcastic way, sometimes in a very confused way. But that's, that's that's the deal when it comes to football betting, right, where you just sort of shrug your shoulders sometimes and go like, Oh, come on. And you know that that is life. And so whether it's Steelers sweat or patriots disappointment, that's what we do over over on the twitter twitter box.
Sheldon:Thanks as always my dude, appreciate you talk to you soon.
Matt:Pleasure, brother, anytime.
Sheldon:Thanks to Matt for coming on the pod and if you want to follow me online, you can do so on Instagram at Sheldon Alexander and on Twitter at Shell Alexander. Also check out our recent NBA season betting preview pod where you get all the inside info on the futures markets. Everything from title odds to who's gonna win each division, where we're searching for value in MVP bets Coach of the Year Rookie of the Year, all that and so much more. Remember to like and subscribe to this DRF sports podcast wherever you get your podcast. And for more on this brand new project from DRF sports. Another reminder, if you're not familiar with the letters DRF well, daily racing form has been around for over 100 years giving you all of the horse racing information, data and analysis. But now we're taking over the entire sports world. So if you want coverage on every football game, as well as the NBA MLB and more head to DRF comm slash sports for all the details and insights as a site has all the data on every game including offensive and defensive stats, betting angles, line movements, key injuries and head to head records. The DRF data is what powers our power trends. So if you want to see which trends our analysts have selected, follow us on Instagram and on Twitter. But if you want access to all the raw data drf.com slash sports, that's where our usual previews are plus we go in depth on this podcast, however you want your betting information. We've got you covered. As always, my name is Sean Alexander. Thanks for tuning in. That's all we got for now but until next time, see.
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