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Tommy Grisafi creates content for Ag Bull Media.
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When Trump Tweets and Oil Prices Fall: A Week of Global Upheaval
Geopolitical tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran create market turbulence while devastating storms in North Dakota destroy up to 100 million bushels of grain storage capacity.
• Crude oil prices crash from near $80 to $65 following Trump's social media posts about Middle East agreements
• North Dakota hit by derecho with hurricane-force winds exceeding 100 mph
• Storm damage includes 50-100 million bushels of grain storage capacity destroyed
• Farm fields filled with debris requiring cleanup before harvest equipment can enter
• Senate working on budget reconciliation bill with agricultural provisions
• Federal Reserve communications hint at potential interest rate changes
• Upcoming USDA acreage report expected to move markets
We'll be back with our official Week in Review episode after this wild week concludes.
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Thank you, Tommy G
Well, the markets are open. It's a wild, wild week. My name is Tommy Grisafi. Welcome to AgBull Media, the AgBull podcast. Sometimes you'll hear us even say AgBull Trading. We're here at Nesvik today and we are in Nashville, Tennessee. If you don't believe me, I have a graphic for that. You just watch this. I am in Nashville, tennessee, here recording with my good friend, don Wick. There we are, nashville, tennessee. Ag Bowl Media, the Ag Bowl podcast. Let's not wait, let's bring him into the show, mr Don Wick, we'll add him to the stage there. He is Poof, just like that magic trick. Mr Wick, how are you I'm doing? Okay, we were supposed to record Friday, and what this show would have looked like Friday week in review is totally different than how it's going to look today. So it's Tuesday. We have a thumbnail picked out. It was called US Attacks, iran type of deal. That was actually for Sunday Then, because we didn't do it Sunday, now it is the war is over. What say you, mr Wick?
Speaker 2:They're still throwing bombs at each other. But yeah, it has been a big week globally, obviously, when we're the US getting involved to a degree that we've never done really in the past 40 some years, at least as far as getting involved with Israel in this particular instance.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and so it was that Israel and Iran are fighting. We're supposed to stay out of it. Then we go help Israel. Other countries are helping Iran and we're supposed to stay out of it. Then we go help Israel. Other countries are helping Iran, and then we're all trying to pretend that we're not. You know, you know, got the bad draw on this. I've seen a MIM, ukraine Zelensky's, out there like bro, where's my money? What about me? Have you seen any of those? You don't. You don't hear nothing about him anymore.
Speaker 2:It kind of went off the headlines right away, didn't it? There, you don't hear nothing about him anymore, do you?
Speaker 1:It kind of went off the headlines right away, didn't it? There's only X amount of room for headlines, all right. Speaking of headlines, we have a couple from yesterday. We're going to pull those up. This is when Trump tweeted yesterday afternoon and this is what really moved the markets here. President Trump tweeted on True Social that he said congratulations everyone, full agreement. As if it just kind of fixed everything and the war is over here. And so you see him tweeting out stuff like this. Interesting enough, crude oil had a real big day yesterday. It opened on Sunday night and went up three bucks and then it went down. We'll get that pulled off and get back to us. And crude oil went down. The crude oil market's being moved so much by these Trump tweets. It's just unbelievable. And crude oil opened $2 higher and then it traded about $6 lower, and now it's down another $4 today.
Speaker 2:I find it amazing, with all of the conflict in the Middle East, and particularly with what could happen still in that straight of ormu, is that uh, oil prices are what mid 60 dollar money right now?
Speaker 1:yeah, 64 65 here today. Uh, crude oil, uh moving around, yeah, very interesting. While all this is going on, uh, you had some big storms here in North Dakota. Talk to us about what you know about that.
Speaker 2:So Friday night a storm came out of Montana and basically termed as a derecho straight line. Winds covering about 400 miles in length from Montana, all the way into Minnesota really along that I-94 corridor from Dickinson through eastern North Dakota as well. Tremendous amount of damage, tommy, particularly as it relates to the grain storage. We've got a lot of grain bins and setups that were blown out entirely. We had obviously the biggest impact was three lives lost in this whole situation. We can't forget about that. But the economic toll on this is going to be huge. I talked with Ag Commissioner Doug Goring this morning and asked really if they had a grasp on how much storage was lost in this whole storm. He said it could be anywhere from 50 to 80 million bushels of capacity and he said it very likely could even be over 100 million bushels of capacity of grain storage lost and that's going to take a matter of years really to try to rebuild those type of facilities. That's a pretty significant type of situation.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you stay right there, Keep talking. I think I have pictures. Can we hear you, don? Yeah, okay, I'm going to go through and we downloaded a bunch of pictures and if folks aren't out there, if these are from people's ring cameras. And then the news hey, you know when what's-his-name's out there, when Reed Timmer's covering North Dakota live, that's a problem. But this tornado down in Spiritwood, could you imagine if that would have hit the ethanol plant or the crushing facility?
Speaker 2:Yeah, yeah, it did get to some grain elevators where there's been at least minor damage on some of the grain storage facilities at elevators. But boy, yeah, look at the damage of the trees that went out of there, a lot of farm buildings that were taken out, and then you take a look at all of the debris that went into those farm fields. I didn't even think about that. Yeah, these fields they're going to have to get cleaned out before we can get a corn header in there. This has got some legs to it. It's going to take some time to recover from this situation.
Speaker 1:I didn't think about the debris going in the fields. That's a great point. That's a really great point. Yeah, I didn't even think about that.
Speaker 2:Actually, today in Angola in the FFA chapter and Farm Credit are working together. They've got volunteers out walking fields and trying to clean that debris out of these fields because there's no way these farmers would be able to get a combine into some of these fields as fall with all of the debris, that debris that's out there yeah, it's almost like any field that you think has stuff in.
Speaker 1:It's going to need to be walked and as these crops get bigger in canopy it's going to be really hard to see that. So you're going to be going through at harvest and no doubt some some headers are going to get messed up, right yeah, and then the crop damage as well.
Speaker 2:Talked with one farmer, one farmer at New Salem this morning. Basically, beans that were planted into corn stubble, that corn trash basically blew up and sheared off the soybean plants. They were having inspectors, crop inspectors in today, insurance adjusters, to check on the dry beans and some of the other crops in that region as well and it'll be interesting to see what the grand total is. The one thing that Doug Goring beans and some of the other crops in that region as well, It'll be interesting to see what the grand total is. The one thing that Doug Goring, the Ag Commissioner, said this morning is he encouraged all the farmers to be sending in what kind of losses they had financial losses to their county extension office so that assessment can go to the governor's office. If they're going to be able to do something at the state or federal level, they need that type of information and quickly.
Speaker 1:Yeah, great point. Okay, so we have the local level. It's not often that I'm turning on the news on a saturday and north dakota is definitely national, even international, story for the amount of weather they what the post I saw on Facebook said hurricane hits North Dakota, meaning that the winds were like a three right.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we had winds in some areas in excess of 100 miles per hour. It's hard to sustain buildings and equipment at those kind of levels.
Speaker 1:Yeah, definitely very scary. All right with that, what do you know on the government side with all this, what we're doing with Israel and Iran and farm bill stuff? What are you hearing from DC? I'm sure they've been sidetracked with the international news.
Speaker 2:Well, they're still trying to work on that so-called Big, beautiful Bill, the budget reconciliation bill. That's got a lot of the president's wish list on there. It would renew the 2017 tax cuts. There's a lot of provisions on borders and some energy issues. It also has some ag issues. It would increase reference prices.
Speaker 2:All of that in that bill, as you know, went through the House, came to the Senate. They're tweaking it somewhat and they're not finding the support they need at this point to get the bill passed in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune out of South Dakota said he's keeping the folks' cancel vacations. They're going to stay in DC until they get this thing done. They had a self-imposed deadline to have it wrapped up this week, so it'd be done in the Senate the upper chamber before the July 4th recess and now they're saying they're going to stay there. The other complication the Senate parliamentarian ruled on Friday that some of these provisions, including some of these SNAP provisions, where they were going to push some of the spending away from the federal government into the state that is a no-go. They can't move forward. There's a couple other provisions as it relates to SNAP and that also kind of complicates this whole process as well, trying to rejigger the dollars to make it work for what they want in the spending bill.
Speaker 1:Yeah, very good. So taking it from the top, we had a war. I walked home here the other day in Nashville. They're protesting outside the courthouse about how America shouldn't be in World War III with Iran and I'm laughing. I'm like these kids protesting don't know the war's over. Obviously they didn't get the memo. I didn't have time to put that beautiful picture up of people expressing their opinions and what they think, but it made me smile knowing that crude oil was down $7, $8 already for that day and then another for today. That'd be headline number two. Crude oil markets absolutely crashed. They traded close to $80 on Sunday. They're trading $65 now. That's interesting.
Speaker 1:Also, don, we didn't bring up, but there's been a lot of chatter today in Fed speak. I do believe Paul's been speaking. In the old days they used to call it Humphrey Hawkins or there's different Fed governors out, but we had a Fed meeting last week and there's a lot of commentary about. With oil now coming down. This may just give the green light to lower interest rates. I know interest rates are on everyone's mind. We have elevated interest rates and that's been a real problem for people.
Speaker 2:So September is the next time they'd be making a decision on interest rates, right?
Speaker 1:Yeah, they have meetings pretty often, but they have this point where there's meetings and then there's times when the Fed governors can't talk, and there's been a lot of Fed governors talking the last few days and giving hints and clues and you see the bond market moving with that. Speaking of talking, every week you put out the bulletin. I have that here and there you go right there. Tell us about your weekly newsletter so people watching this can get signed up for that.
Speaker 2:Our newsletter is called FarmNet News. It goes out every Monday. It's a snapshot of what's happening in the world of agriculture and, yes, you can sign up online at rrfncom. It's for Red River Farm Network.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and then, of course, mr Wick is on all the social medias and he's a very active guy with that. Speaking of social medias, I want to pop something up. We've been working on a few things here and there about social medias. Let me see if I could find that what our social medias are. So many things up here, so many new buttons to click. Let me see if I could find it. Let's see. Here, there we go. That's Agbo Media X, youtube, instagram, facebook. Of course we're on TikTok too, for you wild ones, and Mr Wick's on that. And no, mr Wick is not on TikTok, he is not a TikToker, it's Adult Swim only with Mr Wick.
Speaker 1:But with that you're going to be gone on Friday. I hope to meet with young Jamie over there and we'll get the Friday official week in the review once this week's behind us. All eyes on the big USDA report next week, don, a lot of pre-market, yeah, a lot of acres and ending stocks, and it's the end of. We'll be officially halfway through the year when we have that report. I feel like it's on Friday. It's actually on Monday, so not this Friday. Next Monday is the end of the month and then it's definitely usually a market mover, yeah no doubt A lot of things happening all at once.
Speaker 2:And then that acreage report, a lot of eyes, particularly, I would think, on the corn numbers.
Speaker 1:Yeah, yeah, all eyes on corn and then if we plant too much corn, maybe that's friendly beans or vice versa. So with that, tom Grisafi here, agbo Media, agbo Podcast, don Wick, red River Farm Network. I'm in Nashville, tennessee, today and we'll get this video boxed out and we'll get sent out to the world. Thanks, mr Wick, Thanks, tommy, thank you.
