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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | How Trump’s Beef Plan & China Moves Rattle Markets

• Tommy Grisafi

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We unpack Trump’s push to cool beef prices, the market’s limit-down reaction in feeder cattle, and how policy headlines are whipsawing cash and futures. We track ripple effects from talk of banning Chinese used cooking oil, Argentina’s reemergence in trade flows, and the cash-first logic behind ADM’s free DP on soybeans.

• options floated to temper beef prices and why cattle producers resist 
• volatility from policy signaling, tweets, and import adjustments 
• used cooking oil import talk and renewable diesel feedstock shifts 
• Argentina currency backstops and meat quota implications 
• soybean crush strategy in South America and delayed 45Z clarity 
• basis strength, convergence mechanics, and cash flow priorities 
• free DP as a signal of physical tightness, not a trick 
• rate outlook into 2026 and potential China soybean “deliverables” 
• shutdown impact on reports, CPI priority, and USDA timing 
• land values supported by investors and solar leases 
• bridge aid, reciprocity in trade, and farmer margins under pressure

Subscribe for updates and premium alerts at Ag Bull Media. Contact: 1-855-737-FARM. “Wiesemeyer’s Perspectives is always free.”


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Thank you, Tommy G


SPEAKER_01:

Happy Friday everyone. Tom Grassofi, Agbo Media, Eggbull Trading. You're listening to the Eggbowl Podcast, but really you're here for Wiesmeyer's perspectives. Now listen, we had a week. We were talking before we built this. Jim's laughing. You can you hear him laughing? He's coming up. He's laughing. Jim Wiesmeyer, my brother and a friend. We said, it is gonna be so boring when Trump's not president. We are having so much fun. Now, maybe not if you were long feeder cattle, you weren't having fun. Let's bring him in. He's he built a heck of a show. I'm just here to push the buttons. Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer, Jim.

SPEAKER_00:

I'm not from the government, but we're here to help.

SPEAKER_01:

Absolutely. Yeah. Hi, I'm from the government. I'm here to help. We're gonna make beef prices go lower. Where should we start?

SPEAKER_00:

Let's start right there.

SPEAKER_01:

All right. So yesterday afternoon, after the markets were closed, I saw something like this. President Trump says he plans to temper beef prices. What say you?

SPEAKER_00:

Well, he said the administration had worked our magic, was his exact quote, to bring beef prices down. What are some of the options? They didn't really detail, no official details yet, but there could be some trade adjustments with Argentina to temporarily uh increase the Argentine beef quota into the United States, the front loaded, probably early in 2026, if they do it. It won't be bylaw, 20 to 30,000 tons. There's a possibility later on that he'll lift that additional 40% tariff on Brazil beef. That would bring in more hamburger. And they can do other things, release frozen beef from federal stockpiles, accelerate herd uh rebuilding grants under drought programs. Really, they've already announced that, I think. And they can streamline USDA inspection approval for imports. But I'll tell you Argentina would jump in, right? Absolutely. The cattle people I talked with, with the emails and talking with them, they go, Look, you know, demand is really good still. We don't need additional imports. Let the market work. And I had a farmer USDA official email me last night. I I put out a long report on this topic, Tommy, as you well know. And he said they better be careful of unintended consequences because when the government comes in to try to fix a so-called market problem, they usually screw it up. And let's let's hope they uh just let the market work. And but I'll tell you, this is what the big difference I see in Trump 1.0 his first term versus Trump 2.0. Make America first, okay? That's really he's directed to consumers, not producers. So the listening audience should remember that. He's after the mass, the consumers, and that's what you saw when he did the egg price, uh you know, trying to get egg prices down and beef, he just doesn't understand the beef market, so he's trying to bring some things.

SPEAKER_01:

You sure he doesn't understand the beef market? Because I got a picture here.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, it didn't last very long, his company, so maybe he didn't. Although I heard his steaks were pretty good, actually, by the way. So oh my god.

SPEAKER_01:

If I've been buying steaks from a friend, folks, if you're out there, I've been buying steaks from Albert's Beef out in Nebraska, and just wonderful. Click a button, box of flays shows up. Matter of fact, Mr. Wiesmeyer, I'm a do you like fillets?

SPEAKER_00:

I love it, and I usually get mine for I think they're called Snake River.

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, geez, Louise, you buy the best, only the best for Weissmeyer.

SPEAKER_00:

They have a tomahawk steak that that that is just it overflows the plate, Tolly. It's just I love it.

SPEAKER_01:

Let's get back to the show. All right, speaking of show, sometimes when you're cooking, you need cooking oil, right?

SPEAKER_00:

Trump after China. He said uh, you know, he's gonna uh propose banned uh uh the for using the cooking oil imports from China. Now that was a key renewable diesel feedstock, and they supplied uh almost 1.3 million tons of uh used cooking oil, UCLs we call it, in 2024, and that was 43 percent of China's total UCL exports. That was worth a little over a billion dollars. Now, this is another move to react to Beijing's uh halt on U.S. soybean purchases. And really, the domestic soybean oil producers like ADM and Bungie, they stand to gain from this because the U.S. would shift more toward homegrown feedstocks and animal fats and ag waste uh would also see some higher use. And uh China will just redirect their uh you know shipments to Europe or are Singapore. So, in the grand scheme of things, not a major development, but it affects certain companies, that's for sure.

SPEAKER_01:

And I I want to go back one second. I just want to go back here and I do want to roll this disclaimer. I want to talk about futures and options a little bit. On a serious note, feeder cattle did close limit down, lock limit down today. Today is Friday, 10, 17, 2025. When Trump tweets these have serious, serious moves on the markets, whether it be what he did in copper, copper having its largest single day move up ever, and then four or five weeks later having its largest single move down day ever, this man is moving markets, and when you're on the right side, it's the coolest thing ever, and you feel so doggone smart. And when you're wrong and you're sending in margin money like I've had to do, you you you wonder, you wonder what you voted for, Jim. Back to the show.

SPEAKER_00:

But I I knew when I when I heard the sound bites uh with his beef uh price, we gotta bring them down. We're gonna bring them down, and we have a plan. That's when I knew uh-oh, I've got to work Thursday night on a special report because I knew the market uh factor, and and like you said, they they close limit down, and I you could just tell it. These are volatile, volatile policy moves, potential moves, and reactions for sure.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, yeah. Well, this this young lady, I I do like Rollins, and she's got a tough job.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, now she, you know, it's the the one thing I really like her too. She's the most articulate uh you know ag secretary since a long time, Errol Butts. And that goes back to the Reagan administration. But anyway, she she has a habit of it's like coming, coming attractions for movies, you know. She'll tease you like, oh, well, we're gonna come out with this in a few weeks. And but but the details uh we're still working on. Well, that's uh that causes a lot of conjecture in the marketplace, etc. But she keeps it up, so I don't think she's gonna change.

SPEAKER_01:

Hey Jim, just move your microphone just a little bit, just a little bit away from your mouth. Oh there you go, right? Oh, so much better. You're okay. You know, because sometimes folks who listen to this podcast, if their kids are having a hard time sleeping, they say, just put Weesmeyer's soothing voice on in the kids. He was yelling about this and that. She's got a tough job and she's doing a great job. I mean, she must wake up and go, Oh my god, tell me what happened. Like, here we go.

SPEAKER_00:

Well, she's uh try I say in my speeches, she's Trump with a skirt. She's very similar to Trump. She her staff will get calls in the wee hours of the morning for a briefing or late at night, etc. So, and she's uh has the oomph that although she's much younger than Trump, she has the age, 53, 54. Yeah, that's young, by the way.

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, thank you.

SPEAKER_00:

Yes. Remember my line, all great men are dead, and I'm not well myself.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, yeah. She uh do you think do you think it's a bold prediction? You think we could see like a Vance Rollins on the on the president, vice president? Like you think he'd pick her as a vice president candidate?

SPEAKER_00:

I think it would be Vance and Rubio if if oh yeah, Marco Rubio.

SPEAKER_01:

How about every time someone gets fired needs something? He goes, just give it to Rubio, he doesn't have anything going.

SPEAKER_00:

And Trump this week said that he's probably the best secretary of state the country has ever had. Now that's saying a lot.

SPEAKER_01:

Hey, speaking of Rubio, remember when Trump ran in 16 and Rubio did that thing about teasing him about his small hands?

SPEAKER_00:

Yes.

SPEAKER_01:

This guy's come a long way. Absolutely. I got a lot of respect for him.

SPEAKER_00:

He is the best foreign policy. Trump just has a good cabinet, period. And you're seeing it in some of the at the Treasury Department with uh Scott Bessent and the National Economic Council director, Kevin Hassett, all the way up and down the line. And they had Bessent and U.S. trade rep, Jamison Greer held a joint press conference. We call it a presser in Washington. And I mean, it was they didn't hold back. They they took any and all questions, and he basically said, Don't think that Trump likes to follow the equity markets, but don't think that's going to stop him for doing what he needs to do relative to China. So they think that they think the U.S. has the final upper card with China because we have such a trade deficit with them. So if we retrench a big way to buying Chinese purchases, that will make their already relatively weak economy for China crash. Now, I don't think Trump wants that because that would lead the world market into a recession, but he's basically signaling to uh Xi Jinping, China's leader, watch out because we'll do what we have to do. So that these are high-ticket stuff. This is battle of the titans, is how I'd write it.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, we have a smaller Titan here, not quite China, but uh tell us about U.S. Argentina situation.

SPEAKER_00:

Well, the Argentine president was in uh the White House this week, and that's why you had a combination of developments. Now, previously the U.S. government uh offered that$20 billion currency swap credit line established. Yeah, between the Treasury, yes, and Argentina's central bank to stabilize the peso. And they've and Bessent uh this week confirmed ongoing direct U.S. purchases of Argentine pesos, that's their currency, in the open market to support liquidity. You might be asking, well, why are they so concerned on Argentina when farmers are emailing me, hey, what about us? What about us? And the aid is conditional on economic policy reforms, and he likes the Argentine president. And now this week we saw a private sector U.S. support of$20 billion being structured by the big U.S. banks, uh JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, under Treasury Department guidance. So with all this help, I know they discussed when they were at the White House together. Trump probably said, okay, what can you do for us?

SPEAKER_01:

Okay.

SPEAKER_00:

That's how Trump works. And he goes, uh, we got this meat problem. We got a meat price problem. You got a lot of meat there, right? Can we import more and what's it going to take? Probably that's that's one. And then another one uh with Argentina that again conjecture, but but Rollins at USDA mentioned South America bringing in U.S. beans into South America for crushing like this, these little bad boys? Yes, yes, that's part of their strategy to lessen dependence on China. Now, Rollins mentioned two interested nations. She didn't uh say who they were. Okay, but watch that one because I think they will eventually announce that. Uh but you know that could be negative for soybean meal production in the U.S. because expanded South American soybean meal production could challenge the U.S. exports in this country. And just for perspective, U.S. soybean meal exports are at 17.4 million metric tons USDA 2020 25-26 versus Argentina's 30.1 million tons. That's reinforcing Argentina's status as the top global exporter of meal. So, bottom line, they're they're trying to do everything they possibly can to get soybeans out of this country in a using perspective. But you know what farmers and and other people tell me in the soy industry, they also need to focus on domestic utilization. We still don't have the final regulations under the 45Z program, sustainable aviation fuel. Now we're gonna wait.

SPEAKER_01:

We'll have one right here.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah. And then the the EPA is they're not gonna meet the end of October deadline for announcing the renewable fuel standard program mandates for both corn-based ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc. And so that's gonna be well into November, if not December. But they need to get their act together on this because no matter what they're gonna do on the exports of soybeans, and soybean exports aren't that bad, it's just China.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, it's not I mean they bought so many. Remember when we used to say drive down a country road, look to your left, look to your right, and you know, every other field's going to China. Well, not this year, sir.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, you know what, as you said, driving down the country road, my city friends used to tell me, and this is a true story. They used to always tell me, Hey, why does DeCalb and Pioneer own all this farmland? Well, see, they would see their seat signs and think they own the land.

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, that's funny. I gotta I gotta ask you something. You just said something, and I I gotta call you out. You said this is a true story. Does that mean all the other stories you told us before were complete lies?

SPEAKER_00:

This is a real truth. Now remember, I'm a Catholic, I can go to confession, but still, but still.

SPEAKER_01:

Guess what? I got a joke for you. I got a joke for you. Whenever you have four Catholics together, guess what you find?

SPEAKER_00:

A Lutheran? A fifth.

unknown:

A fifth.

SPEAKER_01:

Hey, this guy, you like this cat right here? Talking about the EPA.

SPEAKER_00:

Yes, he's one of the stars of the cabinet. I say in my speeches, and I didn't think I'd ever say that for any EPA administrator. Reason deregulation. Reason he's gonna settle the waters of the U.S. once and for all for agriculture that will be farmer friendly. Reason he's helping the energy department and the interior department accelerate the permitting of uh energy projects, uh biofuel projects, etc. I could go on and on. He's he's taken a realistic uh viewpoint under the ag chemicals, uh, etc. So I've never seen a farmer as farmer-friendly EPA administrator in my 50 years here.

SPEAKER_01:

Yeah, I want to go back to touch on something you said a little bit ago. I know people don't like Trump, and that's fine. I can I can go either way with whatever your feelings are, and they don't take feelings at the at the grocery store. So I understand we all got bills to pay and everything else. But what you said earlier that this is one of the most solid cabinets. If you look at the Trump cabinet, like the baseball team Moneyball, these people just aren't getting singles, these people are getting doubles and triples. Is that correct?

SPEAKER_00:

Yes, I I do I do, thank goodness, because we need it. This world is not only dangerous, it's extremely dangerous. And you're seeing the and I hear too from farmers and some conservative farmers who voted for Trump. Now, I don't think they'd vote for a Democrat. They may not just vote next time, but they're just thinking that the this grand experiment on tariffs just is not it's working against agriculture. I hear that. A lot of people understand that. That's why they're talking about the the trade-related aid. They're talking about uh Congress eventually probably going to have another economic sport package, but then farmers will will be quick to say we want trade, not aid. But I'm sorry, that's that doesn't pay the bills right away because we've got a a mark, it's just not we we have higher prices today than we had last year in many cases.

SPEAKER_01:

I know, I know. And and so it's the margin, but but margin. But our cost are so much cost, yes. Right.

SPEAKER_00:

And so that's been that's been getting to the bone marrow, many a farming uh operation. So agriculture is a strategic industry, food is national security. I believe it. Uh Brooke Rollins says it, and it's true. Dr.

SPEAKER_01:

Earl Butts said America's single greatest advantage is our ability to produce fuel, food, and fiber cheaper than anyone else in the world. And I don't know if that's still true, but I I I'd say we're up there with the best of the best.

SPEAKER_00:

On a per capita basis, absolutely, absolutely.

SPEAKER_01:

Did you did you you probably knew Dr. Earl Butts?

SPEAKER_00:

Oh, quite well, quite well.

SPEAKER_01:

He was uh oh boy, full screen on Jim. Hold on. I could I could see I could screen on Jim.

SPEAKER_00:

He would give so many funny speeches that as a fledgling reporter back in those days, I would write notes and things like that. And when I went back to the office to write a story, they were mainly jokes. I mean, he was a joke teller, really funny guy. And I said, I don't have a story.

SPEAKER_01:

His last joke got him fired, but it wasn't too much of a joke. It uh Google it, folks. Google it that's like it's true. All right, let's get to the good news. Tommy Grassafi here, Jim Weismeyer. You want to get a hold of Weesmeyer? Here's how you do it, right there. Handsome alert. Maybe next week. You know, if you watched last week's show, if you didn't go back and watch it, but Jim's doctor had uh made a picture of him of what he looked like 30 pounds lighter. We may post that if he can get that image to us because uh we're getting good at posting pictures. I have really good news, and I'm being serious here. Sometimes I think we joke because we might cry. The through the two-year note hit three-year lows. Now I grew up in the Chicago Board of Trade trading in the corn pit and the bean pit, but I really started in the uh in the bond room. And uh big shout out to great mentors, uh Lance Murdoch and other people like that who I was with in the uh follow the money. Follow the money. Yeah, the two-year note hit three-year lows. You know what that means, Mr. Weesmeyer? Lower interest. 2026 is the year of the housing market. Back to you, sir.

SPEAKER_00:

Back to the housing market is gonna come back on. And this is what on the optimistic side that Scott Bessent and Kevin Hassett keep saying the the most of the economists are under underestimating the US economy in 2026 that some of these things are gonna fall into place. Lower interest rates, the Fed's gonna cut probably between now and the end of 2026 four to five times. Four to five times.

SPEAKER_01:

You think so?

SPEAKER_00:

That much, yeah, yeah, yeah. I do, I do. Wow, and then you've got inflation, although sticky, it's it's the rate of uh increase, it's uh definitely been tempered. And by the end of this year, we've got the Xi Jinping Trump summit coming up, and I think they will meet at the end of this month. At the end of this month, Xi Jinping, yeah. At the end of this month in uh South Korea. And now, if they meet, if you if you hear that, hey, they're gonna meet, they're gonna have some deliverables. And I think the soy sector is thinking, you know, there could be a soybean announcement of a of a soybean sale. Now that's conjecture, but uh look at you just said your basis has improved uh significantly this week. That could be positioning going in for uh to expanded not expanded, renewed sales of U.S. soybeans to uh China.

SPEAKER_01:

Let's that ties into something you said a few weeks ago. And I keep talking about what you're saying a few weeks ago, but as of I get to learn you better and understand you, and that's so important that people go back and watch these prior episodes that you had said something about go ahead, watch what happens when the governments close because some sneakedly buying could happen. Go ahead and talk about that.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, because we don't have daily export sales, right? They don't have to report, they don't have to report them. So whenever the government comes back in a week or so, we could say, Well, well, China bought the this much, and we didn't even know. And so that's where you have to watch the that cash price and and and the basis to me, as opposed to even the board. And uh usually uh you you know, you know the phrase convergence. I was working on a story, never did put it out this week. Maybe why not? What are you taking this week off? It's called Trump. But then I thought, look at the spread between December corn futures and the cash price, and especially North and South Dakota. I mean, there's got to be convergence sooner or later. They're where they narrow and get close to each other. Well, it can happen one or two ways either futures uh creators or the cash price rises. And what we're seeing right now is the base is improving and cash prices on the rise. So we'll eventually get to convergence, and this is why this is goes into this is why farmers, especially beans, are saying they're not gonna sell, they're not selling in in any significant quantity, and so we try to bring it back to the market. I'm jumping here now, but look at what ADM.

SPEAKER_01:

You want to put ADM?

SPEAKER_00:

ADM offered this week free deferred pricing DPs for soybeans delivered to Decatur, Illinois, a plant that's basis of Reuters report. Now, why did uh why did they do that? Well, you know, they're having a hard time finding the beans.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, right, right. And if you if they can't get the futures market to rally, you just increase the cash market. Although futures and options are real, nothing's as real as the physical trade. The only reason we have a Chicago border trade is because we have a physical bean corn. How did the border trade start 175 years ago? Because everyone was growing grain, bring it to Chicago, and they were dumping it at the dead low at harvest. And they said, What if we started a futures market and these guys, the Cargill family, ADM, call it the ABC, right? Alphabet Soup. They uh you know they people think free DP is a trick. And I I call DP dumb polock. It if they offer you free DP, it means the cash market's hot. Sell the beans. And I heard Chip Flory and yourself talking about it today.

SPEAKER_00:

Yes, they just they well from ADM's perspective, to be fair, they're protecting crush margins. And so, and they're having a hard time getting the farmers to sell. So this puts uh beans in their in their system.

SPEAKER_01:

Get those beans in the system, folks. If you're out there and you got a hot cash market, you know what Tommy G will say, sell those beans, move over, buy a future, buy a call, buy a call spread. Now I got to run the banner. Futures and options have risk, but you know what else has risk, Mr. Weesmeyer? But doing nothing, going to your bank and saying, I don't have the money to pay you back, right? So we have to cash flow, Jim. We have to cash flow, take those beans, turn them into cash, buy them on paper. My brother Joe Gersafi and I did that for probably 12 clients today. They sold beans, we bought paper back.

SPEAKER_00:

See there. And so a lot of people initially said when they saw the ADM item, they said, Well, why just don't they raise their bids? Uh, but it would mean they had to pay more immediately and risk inflating local basis levels. So free deferred pricing lets them secure the physical supply now, preserve the market optics, and defer price risk until later.

SPEAKER_01:

Jim, are you are you interested in becoming a commodity broker in the gold trading?

SPEAKER_00:

When a policy when a policy outlook person gives you commodity outlook, look out.

SPEAKER_01:

Jim Wiesmeyer giving advice. Oh, here's a picture of the markets after Jim's talking. Actually, that's a price of uh the those guys right there. That's feeder cattle on the open today. She went a little cray cray, but that's it. In all seriousness, folks, if you do need help with futures or options or you have questions, there are no dumb questions. There's just people afraid to answer them. I went to the border trade in 1989 on a high school field trip. I didn't know what the border trade was, except for I saw this floor that was in Ferris, I saw this movie Ferris Bueller's Day Off, and I saw those guys yelling and screaming. I thought it was the coolest thing ever. I came home, told my mom and dad, I found out what I want to do. That was in 1989. So look at me now. I'm doing videos with Jim Wiesmeyer.

SPEAKER_00:

It's called accountability. I to bring up the Catholic thing again. I remember this is a true story.

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, another true story. This is two, two true stories today.

SPEAKER_00:

I was telling my confession to my pre Father Denine, actually, in trial, Illinois. And I would say the same thing, I think, every time, you know, I kicked my brothers and sisters, etc. And for the first time, he said, wait a minute. He stopped me and he said, How many times do you kick your brothers and sisters? And I and I told him, I said, You mean I have to start counting? I quit kicking them from that day forward because I didn't want to count.

SPEAKER_01:

Just showing that God's work actually is accountability.

SPEAKER_00:

Take responsibility.

SPEAKER_01:

Let's talk about accountability when we talk to about America's money. And there's some this is a tough job because this guy, the Fed policy here, you know he's losing his job. You know the Fed chief he's getting abused, but uh he's just doing his job. What's going on here with Fed?

SPEAKER_00:

Well, I don't think he I wouldn't agree that he was doing his job, he's trying to do the job. I I'm not a I think he's very smart.

SPEAKER_01:

Let me ask you this is our show. Did the did the Fed try to influence the last election?

SPEAKER_00:

I think that they got too political. Yes, I think he was political, and they shouldn't do that. Nope. I gotta tell the truth. Well, see, I don't have to go to confession anymore, just tell the truth at my age. So, but he was on the wrong end of inflation. Remember, if inflation is transitory, he was wrong, transitory, transitory.

SPEAKER_01:

He transitory write us into nine percent inflation. Yep, and uh, unless you owned a lot of assets, if you owned assets, inflation wasn't such a bad thing, okay? Because I know people own sections of land and all types of stuff, and they are so much wealthier than they were. 2020, the pandemic doubled people's wealth, and land prices directly correlate with our deficit. Have you ever seen those charts?

SPEAKER_00:

Yes, oh, absolutely, absolutely, and even more so now. The last two times I've given speeches, farmers have come up to me afterwards and and they say, you know, land in our area is holding up for a number of reasons, but one of them is all this of investment people coming in for farm land, and two, all these uh you know, sun uh you know, sun uh units. No, no, solar solar, solar, solar panels. Okay, they're bidding, they're bidding for it. So normally you would have seen a more downward correction in land values.

SPEAKER_01:

We had corn a dollar under the cost production, beans a dollar fifty, two dollars, and land prices. I do a a monthly video with the land talker out of Iowa, and uh Mr. He he he's like the only reason land's trading at like one percent lower than last year. That's nothing.

SPEAKER_00:

That's it. No, uh and for some of these reasons. You you've got it's been what well it's been the best investment tool in my lifetime. I when younger farmers come up to me and they said, Should I buy some land? I said, Well, number one, do you have good parents and grandparents at bank stops? And number two, absolutely buy it, absolutely, absolutely all right.

SPEAKER_01:

Lack of USDA October crop crop production trade continues to talk down corn and soybean yields on a downbeat yield report. And the markets did finish on the highs here today.

SPEAKER_00:

See there the the the yields going down for both the corn and beans. It looks like that's what the market is teaching us and telling us. Now we won't we didn't have an October crop production report. Hopefully, and we'll get into will we have a November crop production report if the government ever comes back? Because I I don't think we've ever missed two consecutive crop production reports.

SPEAKER_01:

I just don't think that's uh we'll look that up. That's a great uh little fun fact. Let's let's figure that out.

SPEAKER_00:

I know in the first Trump administration we missed the October crop production report, but I don't think we missed the November. But bottom line on the yield, it looks like our our average yields are gonna be lower than last year. That's what the market's telling me.

SPEAKER_01:

I don't know whether the USDA starts every year that we're gonna have a record record. We meet in February at the USDA forum right in your backyard, and they tell us we're gonna have the most, biggest, best ever this. And we do, like the seed companies say, this bag of corn has potential of 400 bushels, it's just gonna go down from there.

SPEAKER_00:

Yes. It's because of the the stacking of the traits are getting better and better, varieties geared to a particular state. Look at North Dakota years ago. You didn't have you didn't have those four varieties geared toward North Dakota. But as I always say, you can go in the middle of summer and be in the middle of a cornfield and in North Dakota, and you think you're in Iowa or Illinois. You just can't tell the difference anymore. But bottom line, and this is what's reflected in the cash and and uh and the relatively firm of you know futures prices is we're losing production right now.

SPEAKER_01:

But we're still we still produced a lot, it just they over-avvertised it, they over they overstated it.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01:

My favorite thing I've heard you say is you were on agri talk and chip said the USDA is wrong, and you said, Yeah, it's the yield's probably higher. I I never heard them be quiet. It was funny.

SPEAKER_00:

That's what you start out with. Yeah, you just it's not sacral sack, even from NAS. Better than a crop shoot. You know how these pushes it's better than a crop. So again, we need the November crop production report for we need the government to come back in, and I'll just give you the bottom line on the government coming in. Yes, sir. Watch Senator John Thune. He's the Senate majority of him, Senate Majority Leader, because he's gonna be the one who eventually works out a compromise deal with the Senate Democrats who are holding off. They need five more Senate Democrats, mainly moderates, to vote for the already, yes, for the already passed House House continuing resolution. Now, this uh Saturday, tomorrow, the you know, Democrats are having their no kings protest. Now, a lot of people are saying the Democrats didn't want to compromise until after that, so they could tell their constituency, see, there we're fighting for the things you told us to fight for, the enhanced uh Obamacare uh uh fee help and a number of other things, but just happened to cost$1.5 trillion, and the Republicans just cannot, you know, go along with that. That's just fact. And I think we have we had a representative this week or recently filed a bill that would have the the government continue, we would not have a shutdown, it would continue to be funded, and then for every so many days that if they don't have an agreement on on individual appropriation bills, you would cut uh spending by X percentage points. That was more of an optic bill. I think it made a lot of sense, and since it makes a lot of sense, it won't happen in Congress, okay? So, but eventually we're going to have the return of the US government. So that's when we're gonna have the reports come out and notice you we mentioned the Federal Reserve on October 24th. We're gonna have a consumer inflation report of the uh CPI. Okay. Now that was rescheduled, so they have the ability, Tommy, to find the people in the funding funding to do some of these reports. Now, the reason they wanted to get that CPI report is that report is is what pegs our Social Security payments for the following year. That's my what I'm gonna get next year, so they better have that. So that's why they brought that report in, and that'll be before the end of October Federal Open Market Committee. So at least the Federal Reserve will have an update on inflation, at least from a CPI perspective. Now, I wonder if they could do the same thing with the USDA's crop production report. I think the lawyers have a lot of flexibility in regarding to what doesn't happen or what happens. Now, remember I mentioned uh Thune. One of the things he's telling USDA to do is bring back, find the people in the money so farmers could get marketing assistant loans, MALs, because they're they're in a cash flow bind right now as they go into harvest.

SPEAKER_01:

Trump bucks?

SPEAKER_00:

Well, no, this is marketing, this is MALs, marketing, uh you know, you know, market assistant loans. And and uh you know, I've been asked, can they do that? Well, normally they government shutdown doesn't affect those anyway. So, yes, they can do that and they should. I mean, my goodness, there's got to be some cash flow out there because you don't want to have forced farmer sales at these at least lower prices when it looks like we could rally into the end of the year for both corn and beans, perhaps, perhaps, not guaranteed.

SPEAKER_01:

Right. All right, let's uh talk about something I've been passionate about. And I've I've purchased this product a few times, and it's okay, but as an investment, when you look at gold or silver or crypto or corn or beans or land, this was not a good investment, and I'm sure you have an opinion about it. You wrote a big piece Beyond Meats Clap, key takeaways, Mr. Jim.

SPEAKER_00:

Talked about a collapse. They they plunged nearly 50 in one day Monday to a buck ten, and then they covered around 60 cents down over 75 year today, and over 99 from their 2019 peak, near 240 dollars. Now they're in survival mode, so they restructured, and that's gonna buy the time, but that but they raised erased uh equity.

SPEAKER_01:

They faced uh this product right here, BNB. Yeah, and there's others, but this is the big one.

SPEAKER_00:

This is that's the big that's where the was the darling of Wall Street, you know.

SPEAKER_01:

Look at this label. Look at look at this BSN here. Plant-based patties, no soy, no gluten. All the TikTok mommies are reading that, going, Oh my god, this is healthy for my kids. Read the ingredients, people. If you're watching this video, Google ingredients in a beyond burger 1718 ingredients.

SPEAKER_00:

Come on, yeah, where's Bobby Kennedy when you need him?

SPEAKER_01:

Oh, he's right here. I got a picture of him. Hold on. My father does not like Bobby Kennedy. I hope Paul Grassaffi and Maria Grassaffi are watching. My dad doesn't like this cat, and this was not on our script, but they came out with stuff for we're trying to make more babies in America and they're trying to make it more affordable. Is that correct?

SPEAKER_00:

Yes, and uh the one thing I do like about him is he works out in jeans, so I kind of like that myself.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, he got the uh Jim Weissmeyer uh attire. You don't want to see me in charts. The uh I think we're getting to the end of the show. We have a few things to talk about. Let's do a little lightning round here. I was up very late, I only got a few hours sleeping. We have all these new contracts at the Border Trade CME group. We we could trade crypto. We've always been able to trade gold and silver. I got in the futures industry because, like I said, I won the high school field trip, but I actually got into it because I was interested in buying physical silver. And my cousin said, Don't buy a physical silver, go buy a futures. And my father opened a futures account for me and helped me buy some silver futures. Now, with that, this stuff right here, gold and this other stuff, silver. Gold went up. Are you sitting down, Mr. Weesmeyer? Yes, yes, gold's up, even with its bad day today. Gold was up a thousand dollars in the last 30, 45 days.

SPEAKER_00:

Look at that. What's going on? That's why you have the phrase good as gold.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, it's it's it's it's doing something. Yeah, silver's broke out to the upside. It goes back to what we talked about last week with China and these metals and the volatility.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, you go, it's a safe haven. It's a safe haven. It used to be the dollar, now it now it's gold again.

SPEAKER_01:

Well, we're put the world's pulling away from the dollar, it's looking at Bitcoin, it's looking at everything but the dollar, and true. They're looking at gold, they're looking at silver. There's not enough of this stuff to replace dollars, though, correct?

SPEAKER_00:

No, no, but it's it's a real good, it's an inflation hedge, it's a security hedge, etc. So you can never go wrong buying gold. I don't care what what uh you could buy it near the top, but it'll eventually make new highs. So just like equity market, yeah, just give it give it some time. Give it some time.

SPEAKER_01:

A client of mine said, uh, I said, why are you comfortable with land prices maintaining? He said, if gold's gonna go up a hundred dollars a day, my land's gonna be worth something.

SPEAKER_00:

Yes, I did sound advice there.

SPEAKER_01:

Very good. All right, as we get to the end of the show, I want to tell you how to get a hold of Mr. Wiesmeyer, and you can just keep talking. Tell people about and I I'm I'm being I tease you a lot, but this is because I love you. Tell people how hard you're working and why they should subscribe, which I think a lot of my clients, friends, bankers, Wiesmeyer Gmail, it's at the ticker, it's there. If you're on Spotify, whatever, if you're listening, you you're this is the place to find you, but you are working so hard. I get emails from you at five in the morning, you're on Eastern time, that's four in the morning there. We get emails from you nine at night. I don't know when you sleep. I'm not so sure if you if you're completely sober putting all this stuff out. I mean, you go out all these fancy dinners and stuff, but everything looks good, and you are working so hard.

SPEAKER_00:

Well, with Trump, thank you. With Trump, I have a two-fold working day. I work very early. I've always worked very early in the morning, get up about four o'clock, and then emails I get about 1300 a day. You have to go through them and all my feeds that I get from my trusted sources, and then I put out a report called updates that your listeners, and more than a few have emailed me at my last name at gmail.com and I put them on my distribution list. And uh then during the day, if something major that I didn't cover in updates come out, then I put out a special report. Now they they've tended to increase lately because of things like we started the show with this livestock. This lets we found a way to lower you know beef prices. Well, that that demands a special report with perspectives, and let's tie in the podcast name, Wisa Meyer's Perspective. I try to put a balanced perspective on topics and try to be as fair politically as I can. I'm an equal opportunity finger pointer, and you're only as good as your sources, and a lot of farmers are my sources, and what I'm getting from them today is they're flustered, they're they're anxious, and they just want stability, and they're not seeing it right now.

SPEAKER_01:

Absolutely. I'm gonna give myself a little plug, folks. We smarters perspectives is always free, will be free. And uh, Jim and I, this is my favorite thing I do for two reasons. I love working with Jim, it's a privilege and an honor. It also means it's the end of the week. I love putting this out. I love your feedback. Call me, call Jim, email him, do whatever you want. I have my number here, 1855-737 Farm. Social media is at Agbo Media. We're starting to put out premium content, the new websites up. We had several new subscribers.$25 a month,$250 annually. We're texting, we're emailing, we're putting out suggestions, very much grain and livestock based, but we're enjoying it. We talk about other things too, crypto, and I'm trading all these markets, and sometimes not with success, but I'm involved in these markets, and I'll tell you the truth when I have a good idea or when I have a bad idea. And uh in general, it a lot of times, Jim, when you talk about trading, it's not like, hey, let's get involved. I think what a great risk manager does is keep you out of trouble. A lot of times people call and say, Hey, I want to make money. Let's stop losing money, let's lose less than our neighbor. Let's cash flow, let's get to the banker first. When we go to renew operating notes, we got some good things happening. Interest rates are coming down. You're not the only one who lost money this year, and you don't know how much money the government's going to give you. Now, with that, you're gonna close the show and you're gonna leave people so damn optimistic they're gonna want to come back next week. Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer.

SPEAKER_00:

Yeah, we're gonna we you can see the president. I he's been the most farmer-friendly. A lot of farmers may not agree with that, but when was the last time you heard a president talk so much about agriculture? And Brooke Rollins is in his office more often than not. But they're going to come out with some cash flow. Once the government uh comes back to work, we're gonna have up to$14 billion or maybe even more trade-related uh payments, not just for soybeans. And then Congress by the end of this year, perhaps in an appropriations bill, is good to me, they're gonna have another economic assistance uh package similar to the ECAP program that we had that was passed December 21 last year, the total dollar amount to be determined, but it's just not soybeans. Soybeans are hurt relative to the trade, but corn's been impacted, sorghum, Milo, big time cotton, you name potatoes, cherries.

SPEAKER_01:

Did you see cherries last week or so?

SPEAKER_00:

Cherries, cherries, uh you name it. So that price tag could get a lot higher than people realize. And uh, I know some farmers, usually from i states, will say we want trade, not aid, but you have to uh you have to give this trade dramatic change in our trade policy that Trump is trying to do. Reciprocity. We'll you treat, we'll treat you the way you treat us. In the short term, that's not a positive for agriculture because it's going to take time. That's why you have what we call what they're calling a bridge aid to get farmers out of this cash flow bind because of the margins, because of these costs on fertilizer, equipment, labor, etc. And so that's their theory. And Trump, if he knows the problem, I've been told by his top staff he he's gonna deliver. So that's from a an taxpayer transfer. This is taxpayers' money, and it's cut and it's coming because uh I'll end it with uh food is national security, food is security, etc. And it's gonna happen again.

SPEAKER_01:

Mr. Jim Weesmeyer. Thank you, sir. I'll see you next week. Next week.

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Tommy Grisafi

Host
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Jim Wiesemeyer

Co-host