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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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AG Bull
Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Tyson Shuts Plant | Policy Whiplash Hits The Heartland
We sprint through a volatile week in ag policy: Brazil tariff rollbacks, EU tariff rumors, labor and H‑2A shifts, aid program timing, RFS delays, border reopening signals, a bullish cattle-on-feed report, and breaking news on a Tyson beef plant closure.
• USDA and CFTC reporting cadence returning
• Brazil coffee and beef tariffs lifted to fight food prices
• Potential easing of EU food tariffs and NCBA concerns
• ICE de-emphasizing raids and H‑2A expansion, dairy left out
• Farm losses per acre and aid package design uncertainty
• Disaster program stage two and expected top-up payments
• RFS and RINs timing delays, 45Z uncertainty
• USDA communications balance and need for field listening
• US–Mexico border phased reopening and realistic cattle flows
• Fed cut odds falling and financing risks
• China soy commitments vs competitiveness and history
• Whole milk back to schools boosting dairy sentiment
• New WOTUS proposal reducing federal permitting burdens
• Cattle-on-feed bullish read overshadowed by Tyson closure
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Thank you, Tommy G
Happy Friday, everyone. Tom Grassofi, Eggbull Media, Eggbull Trading. You're listening to the Eggbull Podcast. My phone's dinging and danging. What a week. I don't know where to start, but don't worry. We got it all for you. Mr. Weesmeyer sent his notes. He's ready to teach class. Enjoy the show. Let's give this man the proper introduction. He's so much deserved.
unknown:Mr.
SPEAKER_01:Jim Wiesmeyer, happy Friday, my friend.
SPEAKER_00:So glad it's Friday. We had like two weeks in one again. It's called Trump on Steroids. And we got a different approach to the news this week, Tommy. As you well know, we're going to go through a true lightning round of the issues that we've identified. In case we don't have enough time to get through them all, we're going to bottom line it at first and then come back as we have time to decipher the top stories of the week.
SPEAKER_01:Let's take it at the top. Number one, two, and three, Mr. Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_00:Day to catch up. We're going to show later on. USDA, CFTC released their reports. Some of the business reports also came out. We had a cattle on feed report today, and that was a current report, by the way. Tariffs. It's a movable target. Remember, we've been discussing those Brazil 40 uh actually 50% tariffs on coffee and and beef. Well, they're off now. So that's good.
SPEAKER_01:The third one was the EU.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. The third one, I'd have to go back to your list. Yeah. Potential lowering of tariffs on EU food goods. We're going to talk about that. Cattle may not like that. I know NCBA doesn't, but we'll dissect that. Our four. Yeah. Oh, ICE is de-emphasizing again deportations on farms. We'll bottom line what that means. H2A changes were recently announced. We're going to put a bottom line assessment on that, but we still need year-round dairy to uh contribute to H2A. Six is a biggie, tariff aid. We're going to spend some time on that one, Tommy. When is it going to be announced? How much? And what type of a program we're going to have for that, Tommy? 789. There's your disaster program too. Was finally announced. We're going to have bottom line numbers, including a question most farmers asked me, but we'll tell you what that means. The eighth one is the renewable fuel standard program. Reuters had a story that really says that uh the warring factions between the refiners and the biofuel people has resurrected again and it may delay some decisions. Nine is a sensitive one. Is Secretary Rollins at USDA talking too much to the big media? That would be Fox News, uh Fox Business, CNBC, Newsmax, X, things like that. Some pretty good people are telling me she needs to go out to talk to more farmers and ranchers. And that's and I I would agree because she's very articulate. More on that later.
SPEAKER_01:Personally, I like her a lot. Time to take your shoes off because we're up to number 10, 11, and 12. That means we can't count on our fingers anymore.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, we've got some news on the US-Mexico border reopening. In fact, some news that was just announced today. It's not overopened yet. 11, the Fed challenge. Now we have sinking rates that they're going to lower rates in December at the FOMC meeting. 12 is a December to remember coming up on healthcare. Will the Republicans and Democrats in the White House ever reach a deal on those enhanced Obamacare credits by January 30th? Then we'll take it home. Will China buy all those U.S. beans, like the Trump administration says, will have something to watch out for. Whole milk is coming back to schools, not right away, but it's coming back. That's a good thing for dairy. And the last one, we have a new revised and improved Wotus rule. We'll tell you the impact.
SPEAKER_01:Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer. Hi. I swear I'm on the show. He's got me clicking the buttons. Tommy Gersafi from Valparaiso, Indiana. Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer. You probably wonder where the hell does Jim Wiesmeyer come from? Well, we got the man on the street, Mr. Wiesmeyer. Let's get right in the show. Number one, kick it off, sir.
SPEAKER_00:Well, those are these, and we're not going to go through all these, but the cattle, the the commitments of traders report, that's important to a trader like you, Tommy, and a lot of traders. They wanted to, but it's going to take a while for the CFTC to catch up. And that's why you see in the middle the original published date and now the new published date. We won't get back to snuff current, that is, until early next year. That's the bottom line there. But at least we're going to see some of the uh big longs, big shorts, and things like that, because that a lot of times that sets the tone of the marketplace on Mondays.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Yeah. And I got to tell you, Jim, from a trader's perspective, the uh all these smart people, they're just at a loss. I mean, these number crunchers, these geeks, these people who live and die and sleep with Excel spreadsheets, they only have one speed, and that's geek speed. They don't know how to think outside the box. That's Tommy's two cents. No.
SPEAKER_00:And the FAS, we had daily export sales and the export sales report. And now we're going to be getting them. So that's good because it's a good way to monitor whether China's living up to their purchase commitments on it, looks like the phase two of the U.S. China. More on that later, but at least we'll have numbers again, Tommy, both on a daily and a weekly basis. And then NAS, we're not going to go through all those, but NAS has a lot of reports, and this shows you the dates at which they're going to come out with these reports. Again, it's going to take some time to get them caught up. But some of the reports, like we'll end with on the cattle on feed, was actually current today. So that's a good thing. We're going to get solid information in time from USDA basis their surveys.
SPEAKER_01:Jim, if people watching or listening want that list, where can they get it from?
SPEAKER_00:Just go Google NAS, N-A-S-S, and look under their press releases, and it's it's there. I also put it in my updates Thursday, I believe. So you can also call up my updates at my email, my last name at gmail.com.
SPEAKER_01:We have it on the Agble website, Agile Intel. Mr. Wiesmeyers, yep, Joe Post.
SPEAKER_00:It's there. We covered it live when it happened. I put actually I put a special report out.
SPEAKER_01:Yep, we probably put a breaking news headline on it. Okay, back to the show. We are Brazil.
SPEAKER_00:Remember how long we've been discussing those extra 40% tariffs on top of the initial 10% tariffs on Brazilian coffee and and and uh beef. Well, they finally took them off yesterday, yesterday afternoon. They ruined my yesterday afternoon because I had to write a special report. Now it's gonna take some time for those products to get into the marketplace, but I'm gonna have cheaper coffee probably around Christmas time. It's gonna take probably at least 30 days to work to the system because there's expensive inventory built up at supermarkets at supermarkets. So, but but what I what I do want to put a policy statement out in this. What this shows you their strategy on the Trump trade policy was not well thought out to begin with. Had he kept with his initial instinct, which was correct, on rest on reciprocal, like telling the world, we're gonna treat you the way you treat us. Any American listener could understand that. Well, that's fair, but then they added more on, and when he got mad at Brazil for treating their former president, Trump's friend, not so good, they put him in in jail. He slapped an additional 40% tariffs on. Well, that kept most of their beef uh out of the U.S. market, and it's not high quality stuff, it's it's hamburger. Hamburger. Yeah, hamburger. So it's not going to upset the overall meat market here and and maybe two percent. And but then the coffee is big. I mean, it showed the coffee futures really just went down a lot because they know that Brazil is a big coffee exporter. So, but why did they do what they did? Because they should have known that tells me they didn't have real aggies in their strategy room, Tommy. Because if they did, they been wouldn't be worried as much now about food prices. They're they're dropping these tariffs for one major reason food prices. They're not going down as much as they want to, and coffee is a big component, and they should have never put them on to begin with. So at least they're they're correcting their wrongs. That's my bottom line on that.
SPEAKER_01:And then full disclosure, folks, feeder cattle today opened, offered limit down 925. Most of the months of the feeders offered limit down, traded a lot down there, went up on the day, actually had a hell of a run, and then settled down. Now, there may be some late breaking news this afternoon. We don't have it yet confirmed, so I don't even want to talk about it, but we do have the commitment and traders from a trader standpoint. Whether you were bullish or bearish, there was something for everyone again this gym.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, it shows volatility, absolutely.
SPEAKER_01:Okay, I'm a trader. Call me selfish, call me a pig, call me whatever. But as a commodity trader owns a seat at the board, just get the stuff moving. We'll find a way to carve out a little for ourselves. True.
SPEAKER_00:Brazil, the financial time, I should say European Union. The Financial Times had a story actually late last night, and I knew when I saw it, I had to cover it this morning. They're saying the the uh Trump uh administration may potentially lower further the tariffs on European food goods. Well, again, why would they do that? Food prices. They the the key word now in Washington, both political parties is affordability. Both political parties know that because it was a form of the recent elections that the Democrats won in New Jersey and Virginia, my home state now, and in some races in Georgia. Well, they're they're thinking we've we've got to get more products coming into the United States, and hopefully by Christmas, that's what I keep on hearing from them, they think that uh it'll help it'll start working its way into the system. I said earlier that I don't think NC National Cattlemen's Beef Association is gonna like that because they want better trading terms for U.S. beef, hormone-free beef, etc., going into the EU. And they've uh they the U.S. has not been all that successful in increasing beefs, uh, our our beef going into the um EU. So watch this one. It's not confirmed yet, but the Financial Times is a pretty good publication.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I I like that from uh worldview. Number four, sir. ICE. This is very you know, a lot of people get revved up about this.
SPEAKER_00:Well, now they're going back, they it keeps on flipping, but the White House has signaled that ICE, that's your customs enforcement. Recently, they appeared to back off from conducting ag workplace raids. Uh, and uh even as it's as scours democratic-led cities for immigrants who are in the country illegally. Well, that's kind of a good no ask, uh, don't ask, don't tell, Tommy. Let's hope they they continue that, because most of those illegal immigrants in farm country most are not criminals. So, and they're finding out at the White House, at the National Economic Council and elsewhere who are not agriculture oriented, that agriculture needs workers. So that'll be good for the specialty crops industry, not so much the grains, maybe maybe the meat packers, absolutely. So that's a good thing as far as having having the right number of people. And along with that, we have another one, Tommy, on that one. Uh, is the H2A changes. Now, recently the Trump administration eased labor shortages on farms via uh changes to that H2A visa program that allows in more than a few agricultural workers, about 420,000 every year since 2023, Tommy. However, they they they need a lot more. So they've increased that. So you're gonna see a dramatic increase in the number of seasonal workers coming in to work on U.S. farms. But dairy is still not helped all that because they need year-round workers. So we still need either an administrative decision or a congressional law on that one. But at least they're moving in the right direction to get the people so those specialty crops.
SPEAKER_01:Sugar, my friends up in North Dakota, they just got done with the uh harvesting the sugar beets. They could not do. I talked to one of my large clients, one of the largest sugar beet growers. Two things he wanted me to tell you. One, he watches, and two, they took a butt-kicking this year. The price of sugar in the world has collapsed, and the uh beet growers of the uh Red River Valley absolutely taking a beaten this year when it comes to uh markets. They're they're very, very worried about the financial uh security of the sugar growth.
SPEAKER_00:Well, we're gonna get into that. I don't know whether it's the next one or not, as far as the downturn and the aid package coming, but we'll get into that. We are that was a good bridge, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01:You're very good, Mr. Weesmeyer. We're gonna have you back next week.
SPEAKER_00:Look at this. This chart comes from Texas AM University. My good economist, Dr. Joe Outlaw and Dr. Bart Fisher. I'm very good friends with both of them.
SPEAKER_01:I wonder if they say the same.
SPEAKER_00:Bart would. I don't know about Dr. Outlaw, but anyway, look at these bar charts going down. You don't want them to go down. These are the losses per acre. The blue is 2024, and the maroon or orange or whatever we want to call it is 2025. And look at cotton. Wow, look at rice. I mean, there's a world of hurt. Oats and things, and even even corn and soybeans are just 100 to 200 an acre losses. So if if if I were to add sugar, and they even mentioned this in Southern Ag Today, that Texas AM, they even mentioned the downturn in sugar. So I will definitely acknowledge that that whenever they come out with the aid program, we'll get into that very shortly. They better include sugar on that. And let's go to the next chart because this comes, nope, we had one on from FarmDoc. The the employment.
SPEAKER_01:I don't think we slipped that in that. Okay, that's all right.
SPEAKER_00:Well, anyway, we're gonna get a chunk of money for the 2025 crop, but that won't come until the fall of next year. So that's why we need an aid program. Now let's discuss the key features of the coming aid program. Uh USDA secretary Brooke Rollins said today that now it's gonna come out in early December. Now you'll recall before the government shutdown, 43 days, she was saying it's gonna be announced very soon. But now that the and then she said, well, when the government reopens, well, the government has reopened. Where's the aid program? Well, she told Bloomberg and a couple of other people this week that now it's gonna come in early December. Have things changed? What I've been able it, it it was the total of the program was gonna be about 12 or 13 billion dollars. But now I'm starting to hear they've changed the focus of the program. They've looked at some of the price run-up, like soybeans have gone up, what, a dollar to a dollar, a dollar and a half at one point. A dollar and a half at one point. Now, and so they're it they may be scaling down, not out. We're gonna have an aid package, but farmers are saying, what are they talking about? Because the government was shut down. We were we were forced in some cases to market some of our commodities for cash flow because we couldn't put it, we couldn't get a marketing assistant loan because they weren't offering them. So they're they're readjusting. I they I don't think they know how they're going to strategize the program. Some people within the Trump administration want to target on China and trade if you if the commodities have been hurt by exports. Others want to say, no, farmers have a cash flow problem. They're they're debt repayments. We've talked about that over the past few weeks. This is not should not just be an export program. And if it was just focused on exports, corn has a record corn exports year going on. Does that mean they don't get anything? So you can see the dilemma. And all I know is there's politics involved here, too, because the ag community, not just farmers, the rural community, uh, for a group was the largest uh sector that voted for President Trump. His first term in office, his uh defeat on Biden, and all and his coming back under Trump 2.0. So there's a lot of farmers who will be upset if this is not deemed as enough support. I don't want to tell you, I did hear numbers under$10 billion this week, but I think they're I know they're still discussing it and they're seeing some of the responses in uh on the news wires. And I know in my writing what farmers are saying, like they they're more than upset if this is not a viable program to bridge them, Tommy, into 2026. That that's all the USD officials have said that. They know that. Now, what they could do is when they do announce it in early December, maybe they can get House Ad Committee Chairman GT Thompson from Pennsylvania, Bozeman from Arkansas, and to say, okay, our our aid program is just an initial down payment. Congress, much like they did in 2024, December 21st, to be exact, when they legislated$10 billion in farmer aid and about$20 billion in ag disaster aid, but that was for 23 and 24 crops. Maybe they'll do that, but we'll see. But all I want to point out, this is my bottom line, they're still discussing it because they've seen the impact of the soybean price runup, but that has not helped uh corn all that much, and it hasn't helped sorghum, even though China has purchased some sorghum Milo and cotton. I can't tell you how the horrible stories I'm hearing on cotton. You saw that in the bar chart, where their prices are stuck at 62 cents, where when China was into the marketplace, they were in the 90 cent or higher area. So aid is coming. We don't know how much anymore, and we don't know their concept of the aid program, whether it'll be export-oriented or will it be to help farmers bridge into 2026 and help them make make some debt payments.
SPEAKER_01:Jim, we have breaking news. I don't want to say it yet, but young Lindsay just popped in the show. She's adding a slide, it's not good, and I'm not happy about it. But while we're talking, folks, if you'd like to catch anything, we'll pull that up in one second, Joe. We'll pull that up in one second. If you'd like Jim Wiesmeyer's stuff, yeah, yeah. Joe, a little fast on the grip, but that's right. We still love him. All right. If you want to get Mr. Wiesmeyer's newsletter, Wiesmeyer at gmail.com. You can go to www.agbull. We're posting his stories as fast as he's putting them out. This is free. This is the best doggone thing in the internet. There's nothing better. Matter of fact, they see a lot of other people and agriculture people cutting and pasting and doing all that stuff and publishing his stuff. But that's all right. That's just uh what do you call that? Uh flattery is the uh compliment, right?
SPEAKER_00:I'm I'm too yeah, I'm too busy going on to the next story. But can we put that one liner up again on Tyson?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, yeah, and we got some graphics to uh back it up, I believe. This just came out. This is what I was worried was gonna happen. It is confirmed. Tyson to shut down a beef processing plant in Lexington, Nebraska. I heard oh, I I lost my uh my camera here. We'll get I'll pop back in here. Where is where am I here? I'm in the show here.
SPEAKER_00:So let's get some but perspective on this one. Now, this tells you some of the hurt that it's just not limited to farmers and ranchers. They the ag business industry is going through some trend, some, some, some negative times as well. When you look at farm machinery, when you look at the the meat packers and things like that. And I don't know whether this is part of it, but it probably is. And I never like to see a plant close because that means less competition, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01:It's not good. This is one of the side effects of Joe. Do you see where the graphic is? I I don't oh, I do see it. Okay, right here, Tyson, Lexington. Folks, I'm reading it here. Here's what we have here. I I do have a little verbiage. Would you like me to read it? I would, yes. Okay, I'm gonna I'm gonna pop on and I'm gonna do my best to read it. Joe, you could pull off that graphic. I'm having a hard time. I got it right here. Okay, here I am. Tommy Grossoffee, Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer. Folks, if you're enjoying the show, tell a friend about it. All right, this isn't the best news ever, but uh, I'm gonna read what I have, so sorry for looking down here. Tyson to close one of the biggest beef processing plants in the U.S. Tyson Foods, America's largest meat supplier, is planning to close one of the largest beef processing plants in Nebraska at a time when a cattle shortage in the U.S. squeezes meatpacking companies. This Lexington, this Lexington, Nebraska plant employs roughly 3,000 people and can slaughter almost 5,000 cattle a day, according to industry experts. Tyson is the first of the big four meatpacking companies that process 85% of the beef in the U.S. to close a major plant during the current cattle supply crunch. Meat packers, including Tyson, have been losing hundreds of millions of dollars processing beef because of the lowest amount of cattle in U.S. pastures since 1956. Tyson said earlier this month, this is the cattle, this is the cattle cost for the 2025 fiscal year ended in a September, rose nearly by 2 billion compared with the prior year, meaning that the price of cattles went up so much this was their cost to go buy it, equivalent to like jet fuel going crazy, and the airlines lose money when crude oil is$130. The same thing happened. Record price is great for the person raising the beef, but there's an effect, folks. This is why we got to get back to economics. Mr.
SPEAKER_00:We know how old is this plant? Do they say?
SPEAKER_01:No, but Jojo's there quick on the draw. We'll find out. I do have another friend who's texting me stuff. You go ahead, Mr. Weissmeyer. I'd like your perspective.
SPEAKER_00:Well, I want to I want to know how why did they choose this particular plant? And I want to see the efficiency of it. I don't know, but they I think they were forced to do from their stockholders and things like that. This is called a retrenchment in the ag sector. This is just another solid sign that the industry needs help. And we may they're taking steps to increase the uh number of cattle coming in so they can process them, and that'll get us into the Mexico situation shortly.
SPEAKER_01:Okay. Well, we were going through the numbers and I saw this breaking news came in. Of course, if you want to learn more, Jim's gonna have breaking stories about this this week this weekend. We smire at gmail.com. Um I'll have it this afternoon. I'm getting more stories. I'm getting more stories texting me that the border will be reopening for December 1st as well. News next week. That is not confirmed, but that is something that's being texted to me. Jim, I lost track. What what doggone number were we on? We did TRF say this one. I feel like we're at RFS with uh no no no.
SPEAKER_00:We we need the we need to go back. What was six?
SPEAKER_01:Well, we went through this.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, we did that one. We did that one, so let's go to seven. Bottom line, stage one is already paid out five point seven billion dollars. That leaves ten billion for stage two. That's a specialty crops and quality issues. There's a 35% factor, so that they're they're estimating they're gonna spend$2.7 billion for stage two, five million for storage payments, and uh$1.65 million for MLP dairy. Now, the sign-up ends April 30th. Now, this will save a lot of emails to me. Okay, like why do they only do 35%? They're gonna have money left over, so we're gonna get a top-up payment for both stage one and stage two, but it can't come until after they know the total amount they're gonna spend for stage two. And since signup goes until April 30th, we've got a few months before we get a top-up payment. But a top-up payment will come, Tommy. That's the bottom line on SDRP.
SPEAKER_01:Number eight.
SPEAKER_00:Oh, the renewable fuel standard program is always complex. But Reuters had a story about midweek saying that White House was mulling, delaying until 27 or 28 their initial proposal of EPA to provide only 50%, half the RIN values on biofuels made from imported feedstocks, because that was going to make the refiners use more U.S. products. But that was proposed for the 26 and 27 renewable fuel standard levels. But now they're also deciding on the level of those reallocation of the RFS obligation mandates affected by those special refinery uh announcements that we've seen. And all this is going to affect 26 and 27 mandated levels. So this is yeah, EPA, Lee Zeldon. So I think we're not going to get news until December at the earliest, and they may even go into January before we get some more renewable fuel standard news and also news about these RINs. And also, as I said, 45Z program. So look at the the this is what frustrates the industry because if you have a challenge on exports because of China and tariffs, you have to increase your domestic utilization. Well, that makes the renewable fuel standards so important, it makes E-15 year-round so important for corn-based ethanol, and California won't really get going now until late 2026 or 27 on their E-15 pledge and new law. And then the 45Z program, sustainable aviation fuel, we may not get the details on that until the spring of 2026, because the Treasury Department, IRS, because it's a tax incentive, is really bogged down trying to implement the one big beautiful bill tax incentives that was part of that legislation signed July 4th. So that's another frustration on the part of U.S. agriculture producers, because they're saying we've got to increase this domestic utilization, but the rules and regulations are dragging their feet, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01:Yep, you take a minute to uh clear your throat. All right, I'll read this one. You get cleaned up over there. Is Rollins taking too much too big media, but not Aggies? I do understand what you mean here. Too much time on Fox News, Fox Business, CNBC, True Social X. I've met Secretary Vag Rollins, she was Awesome. I like her a lot. And uh the stage is yours.
SPEAKER_00:Diddle. She's she is the most articulate ag secretary in my long career since Earl Butts. And that goes way back to the 70s.
SPEAKER_01:We're gonna farm fence post to fence post, Dr. Earl Butts.
SPEAKER_00:Well, Earl at the time said he didn't say it, the market was saying it, but that's how he tried to defend himself. But we digress. But I think uh I've heard from farmers saying they they think that the secretary, very articulate, very nice person, very knowledgeable, uh, very close to President Trump. She needs to get out more into farm country to talk and listen to farmers and ranchers and agribusiness people. I understand the the element of going on Fox News and Fox Business News and CNBC. As I've said before, a lot of the cabinet people, Scott Bessent, Kevin Hassett at National Economic Council, they go on the same programs, but they're really talking not to the industry, Tommy. They're talking to their boss, President Trump, because they know he watches those programs. So that's kind of their way to send message grams to so the president knows what they're doing. But it's got to be balanced. An ag secretary should go out, and she can do it. I've seen her her first month was very good when she met with more than a few uh farm groups and farmers and ranchers. She just needs to continue. And so let's hope she does.
SPEAKER_01:US Mexico border reopened.
SPEAKER_00:This gets us into, yeah. Now you had said there was a speculation that December that the border could be reopened.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, that's what I'm hearing on my little text here.
SPEAKER_00:I don't have it uh that's another thing I've got to check because they had been uh initially talking the last few weeks, by the way, of a January reopening. But I will tell you this a few weeks ago, when Ag Secretary Rollins was at the White House talking to Trump, Trump told her, because he wants those lower, lower beef prices, he said, I want that U.S. Mexico border opened. And she wasn't going to say no, but she said, Mr. President, I'm paraphrasing here, we'll we'll get a plan in place. They have to make sure of certain protocols and things like that. Well, that takes a little while, but they're gearing up, they were gearing up for it. We had some announcement that there was an integrated government site now that you can go to for the screw worms. So that's just another indication, Tommy, that they're that they're getting ready to open up that border. Now I want to go through when it is down, what what impact will it have?
SPEAKER_01:I mean, look at what's happened this week. Taking off the tariffs, Jim. Let's just talk about a little bit. Taking off the tariffs on Brazil. Last week it was the 10%, now the 40%. There's still some type of tariff on them, but that can change. Allowing the slowly allowing the Mexican border open. I think also last week when we took off the tariffs, that might have eased some pressure from the Canadians up north. You want to talk about that a little bit?
SPEAKER_00:Well, I want to talk about the impact of when we reopen the border on a phased in. It's not going to be reopened right away. They're going to test certain safer areas, but I've been told by good analysts only 200 to 400,000 head may currently be available for export. That's far less than some of the market rumors imply that up to a million head. The reason Mexican feedlots appear to be substituting cheaper Mexican cattle for their typical Central American imports, they've had improved rainfall, so it's given producers more flexibility to hold cattle. And the spade heifer exports are essentially off the table because the export window is tight and the border timing was too late for some of them. So it may not have as negative impact initially as the market thought. We'll get some of those analyses confirmed once that border is a phased-in reopening. As far as Canada, I'm not quite sure I got your question.
SPEAKER_01:That's okay. I just that things are easing up all over. That what I'm trying to say is, and we could sum it up at the end of the show, is five, six weeks ago, ten weeks ago, when we were doing this, and cattle had its biggest up week almost ever in history. We were having bullish news on top of bullish news, on top of bullish news, on top of more bullish news, and now it's reversing. It's one, and I looked at my phone, you should see the the ex Twitter blowing up. Great, another blow to the cattlemen, another blow to the cattle when maybe this is we went from the best of times to I don't want to say the worst of times, but I would already say, and I'll say it on the screen, the cattle industry is entering a challenging time. If you have a problem with that, drop a comment down below.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and also it tends to signal that we won't uh make new hives, right? Is that a safe assessment?
SPEAKER_01:I won't be buying it and running and gunning for it, but I will say that the fundamentals, we are still short on beef here, but we're coming into Thanksgiving, which you know is a chicken, turkey pasta, you know, something else, anything but beef. I like having beef on that. Speaking of beef, sometimes you have a beef with this guy, right?
SPEAKER_00:Uh Jerome J. Powell. I say my speech is he's a smart guy, but when it comes to interest rates, he's dumb. Okay. And too many Fed governors, that's part of the Federal Open Market Committee, FLMC, are now signaling, well, maybe we better not cut December the 10th when the next FOMC meeting is. On the futures market, odds of a December cut sank to 32.7 percent earlier this week. It was 50 a little over 50 percent on Tuesday and a lot higher even earlier. And that got into the equities market too, Tommy, because the market the equities want lower, lower rates to to further put the U.S. economy into fourth or fifth gear. And they're not gonna, it looks like they may not get it now in December. But I'll tell you, if they don't cut in December, their next cut is gonna be 50 basis points. Remember, I told you that.
SPEAKER_01:Okay, all right. And I do have something I want to well, we'll revisit. I do have the answer to your question on the Tyson plant. Yes, and I want to go over that at the end of the show, and I'll explain to you why. Take a second to clear your throat. I'm gonna go full screen on me and I'm gonna mute your microphone. You go ahead and cough all you want, folks. Thank you for watching. My name is Tommy Grossafi, owner of AgBo Media, Agbol Trading. If you're enjoying this content, yeah, this is an infomercial www.agbol.com. We have premium content$25 a month,$250 a year. You could see a save a little there if you go for the whole year. Mr. Weissmeyer's show will always be free, but we think we have a couple sponsors lined up. But premium content that we're producing all week, text on actionable alerts and breaking news, you get all that and a whole bunch more. Head over to the Agbol website. With that, let's bring in the star of the show. I think he cleared his throat.
SPEAKER_00:I did try it.
SPEAKER_01:It's not easy, Mr. Weissmeyer.
SPEAKER_00:Just dry, just dry. I did well. This is this is my happy hour time, so my old fashion is waiting for me.
SPEAKER_01:Speaking of old fashioned, the uh I was able to pick up a couple bottles of uh Blantons this week. It's uh getting a little easier to get supply and demand, folks. Okay, we went over the border. I got the Fed. We got December to remember. What's this mean?
SPEAKER_00:That's the Affordable Care Act and the Obamacare, because you'll see you'll recall that was the biggest part of the uh 43-day shutdown. Now, the Senate uh majority leader John Thune, Republican from South Dakota, promised the Democrats there would be a vote in mid-December in the Senate. The House never did confirm a vote that on dealing with those enhanced Obamacare uh tax incentives. So this really has 2026 election year impacts. And Trump now has been talking to some Democrats. So there's something going on on this one. The trouble is there's no consensus on the Republican position. They have talked for years trying to come up with an alternative to Obamacare, and they've never been able to. Most people tell me they see a one or two-year extension of the enhanced ACA credits, Obamacare, with some reform, maybe a means testing and some other reforms. Is that enough to get it through the House? Because know that January 30th, this continuing resolution of spending for the government to keep uh going for nine agencies, not including USDA has their appropriations done, thank goodness. But for nine of the 12 spending bills, they only have funding until January the 30th. So they have until this time to get some things going. That's my uh angle on this one. This is still developing, but I would watch it. The next one, yeah. China. Did they buy everything they're supposed to? I don't think so. We're up about close to 2.5 million tons of soybean purchased commitments. So that's a step, but recall that in the agreement, and here's here's the update since we've had our last podcast. Treasury Secretary Scott Besson said that before Thanksgiving, U.S. and China will sign the agreement. Well, we thought it was signed before. Well, it wasn't. Maybe this is why China has been so reticent to talk about the details. They have never, China has never confirmed what Besson said about U.S. farm purchases. Uh, 12 million metric tons of soybeans in November and December, and 25 million tons of soybeans annually for 26, 27, and 28. Whether or not there's a uh escape clause in this signed agreement that allows China not to purchase it is if U.S. soybeans are not price competitive, also including sorghum and and wheat, because they've been buying some, not a lot, sorghum and wheat. So markets don't really think that they're going to fulfill the uh what Bessent uh says. There, I would say most of the traders and analysts, who are cynical usually anyway, but they said China never fulfilled phase one, so we don't expect them to fulfill this one. But Trump could hold their feet to the fire because he's got a little over three years left in his administration. So I wouldn't rule it totally out yet. But that's our little the latest update on the US-China agreement. Watch for the true signing of this by Thanksgiving.
SPEAKER_01:Let's take it on home, brother. Milk, is it good for you?
SPEAKER_00:I love milk and I love whole milk. And now it's coming back in time to the schools because uh it under uh the Obama, the uh yeah, Obama rule. It wasn't part of the school lunch program. Now it's coming back. We won't see immediate change, but that's a step in the right direction for dairy.
SPEAKER_01:And uh milk prices hitting uh multi-year lows here this week. So, you know, we it's an interesting industry. A few not too long ago, we had high milk prices 23, 24, 25. All right, let's take it home, brother. Wotus rule.
SPEAKER_00:We finally got a good Wotus rule from EPA. They have been very at least Alden has been good under the deregulatory. What did they announce? They that it sharply limits, Tommy, what qualifies for the Federal Clean Water Act jurisdiction. That means many wetlands, ditches, ponds, and ephemeral uh features that previously triggered federal permitting now fall outside of the oversight. That means fewer federal reviews for routine farm projects where farmers are just charged a penalty uh on projects such as tile installation, pond work, and land improvements. Now, it's not all positive. Court challenges are still expected. Public comments will be open until early January next year. Here's your bottom line. For farmers, the proposal is broadly deregulatory, it does reduce the permitting burdens and offers actually clear rules, believe it or not, in English. However, it shifts more authority to the states. So farmers and ranchers out there are going to have to close a better monitor their state institutions, uh, their lawmakers, to see uh what regulatory environment they have regular uh relative to the waters uh uh uh WOLTUS rules at the federal level. That's the bottom line on WOLTUS.
SPEAKER_01:All right, we had a catalog feed report. I have the uh numbers here. It's my understanding these were slightly bullish. I was just looking at uh X, one of my good friends who's on Twitter. He said, Great, we get a we get a slightly bullish catalon feed and then get hit with this Tyson news. Uh, this is the Catalon feed on feed, actual 97.8 placements 90, 90.0 marketing's 92.0. Let's the hits never quit. That's chart provided by Neswick Trading Group. I am an associated person, Neswick Trading Group. The cattle industry. I want to finish on this note.
SPEAKER_00:Here, wait a minute. Let me let me bottom line.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, you're allowed to, it's your show.
SPEAKER_00:It's the lowest October placements on record. Okay, really? A little bullish there, yeah. Yeah, and I'm just going through notes. Placements, feed lots down 10% from 2024. Net placements were just shy of 2 million head. Placements were the lowest for October since the series began, Tommy, in 1996. So, yeah, this is tilting to me to be a friendly report. Marketings, you always got to look at marketings of Fed cattle, were 8% below a year ago. Other disappearances 2% below a year ago. Total cattle on feed was in line with the average estimate of 97.9 percent produced by a Wall Street Journal survey. So this was the first tally of cattle on feed since September the 19th because of the government shutdown. So, yeah, I would have to say this tilts to the uh friendly side.
SPEAKER_01:All right, let's take it on home. Tommy Grassaffi, Jim Wiesmeyer. We had breaking news, breaking news as we end the show. During the show, this is taped and will be live streamed here in the next half hour, Friday afternoon. The breaking news is, Mr. Wiesmeyer. Tyson did what?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, the where was the plan in Nebraska? Yeah, I got it over here. Lexington. Lexington.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, did we ever find out how old? Yeah, I wonder. Oh, that's good. What do you say when you want something? Like my little kids. I got it. It was provided here from a good friend of mine. Mr. Wiesmeyer had asked, and we shall deliver. When did that plant start? November 1990. 90. So it's got some age to it. That's a year I graduated high school. Yeah, it's been a while. About 30 uh 35 years. Okay, Mr. Weesmeier. It is a pleasure and privilege to do the show with you. It's a rough week, especially getting this news. Maybe a good week, but you gotta take us home and leave us something optimistic.
SPEAKER_00:I will. We're gonna have, we're gonna flesh out, I guess, some more details of the US-China agreement coming up next week during the week, and we'll blame Scott Besson if we don't get it. Two is farmers and ranchers emailing, calling in their lawmakers into the White House saying, Mr. President, we we like trade, but we also need aid. And it's not just due to exports. This is a cash flow bind it in many parts fueled by fertilizer and other input cost. We need a bridge to 2026 and we need a solid bridge, multiple lanes. And I think they're hearing it. So by early December, we're gonna get an aid package. That'll be the first part. The second part is gonna come from Congress, which will be similar probably to the aid package that they had December 21st last year, when it totaled$10 billion. So that's the good uh side that we're getting by the end of the year, Tommy. I think we're gonna have stability as much as you can under any Trump administration on trade policy. As you can see, they're fine-tuning it now. It's making more sense now. And so let's just hope it continues so we can get the government less out of the way and let businesses have known issues so they can know the rules of the game, they know the taxes are gonna be cut next year, so they can hire more people, come out with more entrepr entrepreneurial products, and we can get this economy going in fourth and fifth gear again. I'm gonna end it there.
SPEAKER_01:See ya, Jim.
