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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | China’s Soybean Deals And Moving Goalposts
We unpack why China’s soybean purchase timeline keeps sliding, how the market is reacting, and who should be accountable. We dig into border biosecurity worries, beef policy levers, the coming Fed move, crop insurance changes, and a likely aid bridge to 2026.
• shifting claims on China’s soybean buys and missing signatures
• soybean futures weakness and market skepticism
• screwworm concerns and quieter agency updates at the border
• cattle rally versus talk of tariff cuts and import levers
• USMCA review signals, Mexico demand, and retaliation risks
• Farm Bill 2.0 delays and SNAP’s dominant share
• E15 year-round push, RFS volumes, and 45Z SAF uncertainty
• crop insurance rule changes and prevent plant buy-up removal
• rumored $12–14bn farmer aid and timing of payments
• high fertilizer costs, planting talk, and cash flow strain
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Thank you, Tommy G
Happy Friday, everyone. Tom Gersafi, Eggbull Media, Eggbull Trading, coming to you live from my basement. We got the one and only Mr. Wiesmeyer ready to talk. He built a good show. A little different energy this week. Kind of a lot of drama, but not as much as a week ago. But with that, let's give him the introduction. There is no bad Wiesmeyer show ever. This one might go a little fast though.
SPEAKER_00:I'm ready. I'm back from recently back from Nebraska, Auburn, Nebraska. A great meeting there with uh you know Ruth Gurtis' uh crop insurance people, uh Farmers Mutual in Hale uh sponsored it, and we had a great time and I learned a lot, and we'll get more into that uh later. And uh next week I head to this Sunday, I go down to New Orleans for the rice grower meeting. I've done that many years, love the rice growers, and then I head out to Newton, Kansas. I've done that 12 or 13 years almost in a row, but I missed last year, so I can't wait to see those cattle and wheat producers there. And then I fly back and I go to DC for a peanut grower meeting. So I'm meeting with grassroots producers, which I like, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02:You say peanuts, and all I can think of is Jim, you're nuts. Let's get to this both.
SPEAKER_00:You you hold it up, and uh, and this is the best protein and the smallest protein you can get if you want to feed the world peanuts.
SPEAKER_02:I like it. I like it. Jimmy Carter would be proud of you. China soybeans purchase a change deadline. What's going on?
SPEAKER_00:Well, they can now USDA had an over 400,000 ton U.S. soybean uh daily sales announcement today. But when I say a possible change here, Tommy, is uh Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, said earlier this week that their purchases, the timeline, remember he used to say by the end of this month, by the end of December, all of a sudden he said February the 26th. So and I've checked with Treasury. I still don't have a bona fide answer as to for why those goldposts moved. Goal post.
SPEAKER_02:It's like you knew.
SPEAKER_00:Well, this will be a consistent this week. We're gonna use this goldpost one several times because it's changing issues are changing here.
SPEAKER_02:I googled moving the goalpost and I looked at images, and this bad boy came up. I'm like, that was made for us specifically.
SPEAKER_00:It was, and I think you know, Scott Besson grows. Well, he's got uh a soybean farm.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, North Dakota, maybe.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I think what he probably means is when he says the season, he probably means the marketing year. So once we ever get a signed agreement, if we do, and I think that's the next one, Tommy, we're gonna talk about.
SPEAKER_01:Okay.
SPEAKER_00:Uh, will we ever see that signed agreement? Remember last week we said Rollins and Bess said around Thanksgiving we were they were going to solidify the signed agreement. We still don't have it. So this just leads to rumors that there's really no tonnage involved on the purchases of U.S. soybeans. I've seen some consultants tell their clients that, uh, despite that being in a fact sheet from the White House. You'll recall the 12 million tons between uh, well, when the announcement was made, and now February 26 used to be December, and then 25 million tons for calendar years 26, 27, and 28. China has never confirmed that, and that's led into the rumors that that this is more of a political statement as opposed to a bona fide trade policy statement.
SPEAKER_02:Let me ask you a question. How do we make the USDA Rollins? You know, we're not gonna get to Trump, but who who can be accountable for this?
SPEAKER_00:Well, I think the U.S. trade representative, Jamison Greer, should be, of course, Scott Bessant, because he's the one who first mentioned it, even Trump and Rollins. Yeah, there's Trump and then Rollins. She she has indicated this timeline as well. So I think within the next uh uh week or two, we're gonna get some more specifics and hopefully something from China, because it it just feeds into the rumors. And and you know, uh analyst, yeah, there's there's Jamison Greer, the U.S. trade representative. This just feeds into some analyst uh bias, I think. If they're bearish the market, they'll use this, Tommy. And I've seen it in a couple of uh analyst uh comments. But uh many people think that China won't fulfill those tonnage levels anyway, that they'll they'll they'll just say U.S. prices are above the price of Brazilian soybeans. But right now, you've got Trump and China's leader, Xi Jinping, and the various officials from both countries, they're in a positive attitude towards each other. So that's why I think you'll continue to see soybean purchases from China, hopefully, Chinese purchases of sorghum and eventually maybe cotton, because sorghum and cotton need those purchases. You've got cotton prices, what it around 64 cents.
SPEAKER_02:Lower sixes, yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and they they need to be in that 85 to 90 cent area. So uh it's cotton needs a turnaround here. The bottom line, it looks like China's gonna have longer to purchase the U.S. soybeans in order to fulfill whatever is in that agreement until we see it.
SPEAKER_02:You know who will call BS on this is the uh Chicago Border Trade front month soybean market. This is a one-day, every color is a one-day chart of soybeans. This is January. See that big down red bar? That's today, Jim.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, that and that looks like a what head and shoulders top?
SPEAKER_02:No, well, it's yeah, that or it has dandruff, yeah. Some here.
SPEAKER_00:Not good, not good. So, yeah, we just need to surprise the naysayers out there with a one or two million ton purchase day. I'm not gonna rule that out, I'm just not.
SPEAKER_02:Well, you're very optimistic, fella. Let's get to our uh southern border here.
SPEAKER_00:Boy, did we have some some news? They're reopening, they're they're uh reopening an inspection of uh Santa Teresa December the 9th. Yes, and now this is the uh oh, we're on USMCA. I thought we were on the UCA.
SPEAKER_02:No, no, I I might have screwed up because uh I'm allowed to screw up here. We're just on the US Mexican border. That's the screw worm, that's the screw worm, yes. One half of the US MCA, yes, yes.
SPEAKER_00:We got the screw worm out there. Oh, yeah, we got screw worm. Here's some news that that we don't know the full reason, but if USDA's APHIS offices have been told not to put uh not to update their site uh for information now about cat-owned stuff, yeah. Uh it could be, yeah, veterinarian veterinary information. We don't know whether this is tied into uh the screw worm issues or not, but we're getting into that time frame where initially the goal was either to reopen a phased-in reopening of the border either in December or January. So I don't know whether this signals that, but AFIS offices were told not to talk that much and not to post any updates to their site. Just I find that more than interesting. And you had another uh incident of a of a screw worm in northern Mexico. Now, here's the sensitivity. Earlier this week, I reported, and I know this is a sensitive issue. Some sources told me that this could have been placed uh by the cartel in Mexico. Oh my. That's a serious.
SPEAKER_02:We're going deep, conspiracy. We're going deep.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, some source, I have to say, some source, not all.
SPEAKER_02:You can't tell us the source because you'd have to kill us.
SPEAKER_00:Oh no, there were two very good sources I had. That's why I needed a confirmation. So I don't know whether that's true. They think that uh they want to keep that border closed for whatever reason, and let's hope that's not the case. Other people say no, that they can uh they can explain the the northern tier uh northern uh uh Mexico incidents through other information. But I'd have to I have to admit, I I've heard that's from some pretty good people. If that's the case, boy, this is a serious issue here.
SPEAKER_02:So that'd say, where's the beef, like the Wendy's commercial, right?
SPEAKER_00:This is one I had almost had a headache after writing it today. That that there's the administration still wants to get those beef prices down. You'll recall I told you I was in Nebraska this week, and the cattle people there, they were in a good mood again because we had a very good uh you know run-up in uh uh prices in prices.
SPEAKER_02:Can I show people an example of that? This is cattle. This is live cattle, folks. Look at that V bottom.
SPEAKER_00:They rose 315 to 227.15. That was near the daily high and hit a three-week high, Tommy. For the week, February live cattle rose a little over eleven dollars, and January feeder futures closed up two almost two and a half bucks at$339 and change. That was not only near the daily, that was near the daily low, actually, but it hit a four-week high early on for the week. January feeders were up over$15. Not bad.
SPEAKER_02:Remember when you and I were podcasting uh a few a few months ago, they had an up 20 handle week, and it was crazy. We had up 15, and we're just kind of getting used to it, right?
SPEAKER_00:Well, it it shows you the demand is still there. So, and the cattle producers in Nebraska asked me, what doesn't our president who they like, doesn't he understand the cattle cattle industry? That it it it takes two to three years to rebuild the herd. And why hurt us when the demand is not suffering in that? So they were a little disgruntled as far as the attempt to significantly lower the price of uh beef. And that's what I wrote a complex special report that they're still looking at trade policy and the quotas and other quota area. And you you you may want to read it if you're a cattle producer. But the bottom line, I quoted different industry people, and they said if they did some of the things that I discussed in that report, there will be negative political consequences and major economic damage to the cattle industry, that they would have to have an aid program. And they they better not do that. So that's kind of the bottom line of the report.
SPEAKER_02:And this sheet, did we cover everything you just wanted to talk about?
SPEAKER_00:That's what I'm that's what I talked about. It's the debate whether you know President Trump can unilaterally modify what's called the OCQ, that's the other country quota on beef imports. It it's so complex, that's why most people don't talk about it. But the the the OCQ fills immediately each year, and and then that triggers that 26.4 percent tariffs. Now, uh lawyers say that Trump can lower the tariff by proclamation. He he could he but he can't easily raise the quota due to our World Trade Organization bindings. So, but cutting the tariff would increase beef imports and lower grain uh ground beef prices very quickly. Will he do that? We don't know. Some people are telling him to, but as I said, cattle the cattle groups want the terror that said it warrant tariff cuts would hurt U.S. cattle prices big time, risk rancher livelihoods, and damage Trump's rural political support. And I agree with that. So I don't think uh some of these uh potential maneuvers that he can use will be used unless they're really desperate. They should just let the market handle it. You don't see a big cutback in demand yet. You just don't.
SPEAKER_02:Think about the fortunes made and lost. I know personally I did well in some of those sell-offs, and you know, when the president says I'm gonna get the price of beef lowered, we have a plan. I believed him now. He hasn't said a lot about it lately, but hey, the weekend's just starting, so stay tuned. Let's uh talk about this real quick. Then I want to bring up something interesting.
SPEAKER_00:December the 10th, that's coming up next week. Uh, we have a two-day December 9th and 10th Federal Open Market Committee meeting, FOMC. And uh it's I think we're uh 90% or higher odds that we'll have a 25 uh basis point cut in interest rates. That's the known part. If they if they don't cut, then then oh my goodness, he would fire, yeah. He he would fire the uh current Fed chairman, Jerome J. Powell. But I think that's a given now for a quarter point cut. But the key is when you when we have the presser event, the press conference, what will Jerome J. Powell say regarding uh cuts in 2026? Now, interestingly, Tommy, on the morning of December 10th, that's the date in the afternoon, two o'clock Eastern time, when they announce the FOMDC decision, in the morning on December the 10th, we'll issue an updated jobs report. We haven't really seen a live one for a while. That could determine if there's if there's a major surprise in that jobs report, if there's any reason not to cut, it would come about from the jobs report. So that's that 10% fudge factor on, I think that the trade has relative to the cut. So listen to what the jobs report says on December the 10th. But for the future, listen to what they say regarding uh additional uh cuts because they're gonna look at job numbers now. Uh, even though the economy looks okay right now, we're starting to see more and more uh uh layoffs and things like that in in certain businesses, and I know that's got the Fed's attention. Also, in early January, Trump is gonna announce his new Fed chairperson. Powell can last until May of 2026, and uh the odds are betting that it'll be National Economic Council Kevin Hassett. The bond market, some people in the bond market don't like that. There's Kevin Hassett.
SPEAKER_02:Be careful what you wish for, Gene. I got pictures. I got pictures.
SPEAKER_00:See there. He he is very articulate. He was on Mornings with Maria's show, and I've got a special report out on that on her excellent questions. Maria is a great Bartoloma, is a great questioner because she knows the markets. I mean, she's a longtime financial trader and reporter. But call that up on your site, uh Tommy. I would tell the listeners and viewers because yes, go through the questions and answers, and you'll see Kevin Hassett knows his stuff and he knows how to explain it. As an economist, he can still speak English, and that's rare amongst uh economists. He's very, very clear. Now, what the bond, some bond traders don't like him if he's the choice, because they think that it will erode the independence of the Federal Reserve, and because he's so close to President Trump, I think that he would still be a good uh chairman. But the other one that I think has a possibility to become Fed chairman is Kevin Walsh. Uh that's what the bond market will like better. And they think that Kevin uh Hassett should stay at the NEC because along with Scott Besson at Treasury, they are seen as the best spokesman to educate Americans on the Trump economic uh policy, taxes, regulations, uh, growth, entrepreneurship, productivity. That's what Kevin Hassett got into in the interview with Maria and said we're going to have almost 4% increase in productivity. And along with declining inflation, that speaks to robust gross domestic product, GDP growth, into 2026. And that's why they're pretty confident about the US economy in calendar year 2026. Trump and the Republicans better hope for that, because unless they get that pretty big turnaround in the economy, the political experts are signaling right now that the Democrats will regain control of the House. And most of them still think that the Republicans will retain control of the Senate. But I think we're ahead of ourselves there. That's that's next year. But watch the economy, it's very important.
SPEAKER_02:Very cool. All right, you get a sip of water. I'm gonna explain to people what premium content is. Of course, you want to see Mr. Weissmeyer's articles, you can see all that on www.agbull. Weissemeyer show is free, but we do premium content three, four times a week where we have educational videos, special guests that we don't put out in public. Of course, we're texting clients daily. We put a nice morning rap sheet in their inbox by uh nine o'clock every morning, and then we communicate with them throughout the rest of the day through text and email. Of course, we have those special educational videos.$25 a month,$250 annually. Want to say big thanks to uh Wiffles Hybrids and all the uh new premium subscribers that came on from that meeting out there in Iowa. Jim, the uh Iowa farmer was optimistic, their yields were down a little bit in Quad City. They had that problem with rust. I'm sure you heard a lot about that this late summer.
SPEAKER_00:Absolutely. I heard uh the rust, and I also heard in Nebraska sudden death soybeans that you don't usually hear in Nebraska. And I had a special on that this week on the on the internet site of that once you get sudden death soybeans, it's a continual problem that you have to guard against. So there's two major products out into the marketplace, and that can be a yield uh killer on that one 20 to 40 bushels hit. That's a big time hit. So yeah, I heard the rust big time in in in in Nebraska. And of course, when I traveled to uh Iowa and uh uh Illinois, I did find out that the soybeans in Nebraska did quite well, by the way. The yield overall, the yield in in Nebraska was quite high.
SPEAKER_02:But that sudden deaths, like like those girls who used to stay away from in high school who would have the cold source, they can control them, but that keeps coming back, right?
SPEAKER_00:I had a cotton farmer tell me years ago. Oh, you're gonna what up me.
SPEAKER_01:You're gonna what up me.
SPEAKER_00:His best advice is when you're dating someone, go to the bathroom and open up the medicine cabinet to see what's in it. Well, I hope nobody opens and never date a woman who has balloons on her check checkbook. It just that was I remember a cotton grower telling me that. Just they didn't didn't didn't. And the other uh really good advice he had is don't buy a boat, just know have a friend who has one.
SPEAKER_02:That is a true story. Well, speaking of boats, if we go down south, we can go to the Gulf of America and see our friends at the uh USMCA. Of course, we go up north and uh we could see our friends from Canada. What's this mean?
SPEAKER_00:USMCA five-letter acronym United States, Mexico, Canada Agreement, USMCA. And we had a series of hearings beginning Wednesday this week on the future of USMCA because the the review by the legislation involved with USMCA is July of next year. Now, both President Trump and U.S. trade rep, Jamison Greer, uh signaled this week that said, you know, if we don't get some changes that we want, there's Greer, of uh making sure that China doesn't have end arounds to get some of their products like cars in either from Canada or Mexico and maybe a couple other sectoral issues. Both Trump and Greer said, you know, we may want to return to just having bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico. Now, the majority of uh witnesses at the three days of hearings, and I think they could continue now because there was widespread interest in it, they want a continuation of the USMCA because it basically has worked. It's a not that no agreement is perfect, but we have a North American market, uh Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. And there can always be adjustments, but I think what the Trump and Greer are saying is just jawboning ahead of negotiations. I hope that's the case because I think that that uh overall agreement has has been good for all three countries.
SPEAKER_02:Is that right? Yeah, well, we do though you know, speaking of Mexico, they have bought a ton of corn from us, and thank you, Mexico. I wish I had a clapping sound, but uh, do you know how much lower corn would be if Mexico wasn't buying it from us?
SPEAKER_00:Absolutely. That would be the soybean thing on China, you know. And look at uh whenever you get into negative U.S. Mexico issues, a U.S. hog producer gets very nervous because they buy a lot of our hams. And Mexico always retaliates on U.S. hams. And so that they know how to hit us if they have to. And we could see later on today both uh Trump is uh meeting for the uh world soccer event, but uh Mexico's uh president Scheinbein is here, and Canada's prime minister is here, and I know all all three will be talking. I don't think they'll have a lot to a lot of time to talk about trade issues, but we could have something develop out of that when they're when they're eyeball to eyeball, you never know what what's gonna happen as soon as maybe Trump will pop off and say something about the border, especially with with our president, yes.
SPEAKER_02:Uh he loves when those red lights are on top of those cameras, it means he's live.
SPEAKER_00:The Nebraska people asked me about him, and I said it's Trump on steroids in this term, and and he's not gonna change. That's the way he is. Now, he is leaving this. And I added that, yes.
SPEAKER_02:You know, Trump said some very maybe words that we're not supposed to say about Tim Walls. And uh I I very much try never to say that word, unless I'm talking about my brother Joe, of course. But that on one of the shows that Lean's left, they said, Did you hear what he said? And that one guy who's uh a wonderful commentator, he says, You know what? 76 million people don't care, they actually like it, so get over it. And he's not going to change. No, he's 80 years old, 79. How old is he?
SPEAKER_00:He's about 80, 79, 80. Yeah, his birthday is a day after mine, and Xi Jinping is the day before mine, so it's Xi Jinping.
SPEAKER_01:Three stooges, three stooges.
SPEAKER_00:How the hell do you think? No, it's the three musketeers. Come on, it's that's how you phrase it.
SPEAKER_01:Oh my god, I told you this show would be exciting. I didn't know. I thought it started off slow, but it's getting good. Let's move along. I gotta get it again.
SPEAKER_00:I want a bottom line from Nebraska. They just explain Trump to us, and I go it would take as long as he speaks each time that he speaks, but he his heart is in the right place. I think uh he America first and all that. A lot of people love what he does, they just don't like how he does it.
SPEAKER_02:Whenever somebody asks me, Hey, how you doing, and they're being since sincere. I say, Do you have a few hours? I'll tell you.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, sit down, boy.
SPEAKER_02:Sit down. I got something to tell you, boy. Farm Bill 2.0. See you in 2026.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, there's another move the goalpost, right? There, that's his that's our bug. Yeah, that's our bug for this program today. GT Thompson, House A Committee Chairman. If there's anyone that's more optimistic about a farm bill timeline, it has been GT. He is even admitting that there's not enough time and votes right now to get it done this calendar year. That's the skinny farm bill. It's not the major farm bill. We got the major farm bill, thank goodness, done in the budget reconciliation bill. That was the dramatic increase of 10 to 20 percent in the reference prices and and uh crop insurance uh changes that we'll get to later. But now he's saying, oh, I think this is gonna be delayed until January. I'm not so sure we'll ever see that 2.0 done until after the 2026 elections. Why do I say that? The Democrats they think that they're gonna win at least one, if not both, chambers after the November 2026 elections. And unless the Republicans claw back some of the reduced spending for the food stamp program, snap. Yep, there you go. They're not gonna go for any Farm Bill 2.0, which leads to farmers asking the question will we ever have a farm bill again? And I and I say the question should be, should we have one? I think it's better handled annually in the appropriations process so the policy people can better align what it's needed on an annual basis. Can you imagine Tommy doing a four-to-five-year farm bill? I mean, that's silly to me nowadays. It used to be okay, not any longer. We need to do this on an annual basis. That way, then it doesn't get married, hitched, if you will, to the food stamp issues. It do it on its own merits, do it on its merits of what agriculture needs.
SPEAKER_02:Let's educate people. Jim Weissmeyer says the word snap, and we know how important that is for food security for so many people. Now I'm going to post a picture of the farm bill. You think we're talking about farmers in agriculture? Explain this picture. Now you have to understand thousands of people are listening. They can't see this picture, sir.
SPEAKER_00:Okay. If if you saw a bot pie chart, and it would be like I learned in logic class in college, that food stamp or nutrition funding gets the lion's share of farm bill spending. And what's the lion's share? All the lion wants to eat. That's the definition of lion's share. It's a little over 80%. 80% of the farm bill spending is on food stamps. That's why it has so much clout for the 42 million Americans, who many of whom really need food assistance, but it it shows you the the stress that they want to keep increasing the spending for food stamps. And if you saw the pie chart, the the smaller percentages are for the safety net, for crop insurance, etc. So that's why I think maybe it is time. I never thought I'd say this that we ought to unhitch the farm bill from the food stamp debate, but I'm beginning to have my doubts right now.
SPEAKER_02:Well, you're getting older, a little maturity, you know, you're getting you're learning, you're teaching old dogs or new tricks. For people who can't see that chart, it looks like Pac-Man and all the other like a Pac-Man logo and all the other little things be like what's going in Pac Man's mouth. Yeah, we say farm bill, but it's really food security. And by the way, those 42 million people, we did learn the last few weeks, some of them are dead, and some of them are receiving it four times. So we need to clean that up. It may be closer to 38, 39 million people, but there's a real need, no doubt.
SPEAKER_00:Absolutely. And I think Rollins is right. Whenever you spend as much money as you do on any program like this, you're gonna have waste, fraud, and abuse. And Rollins is trying to get data, and she's having a hard time getting information from some Democrat control from the two states. Yeah, and so now they're threatening to delay some administrative uh funding to those states. So she's got their attention now. I just think you need the data. What's wrong with reforms of any program to to to make it more efficient and more saleable to the American public? And so I I applaud her for that one. I think she's on the right uh right path there.
SPEAKER_02:Well, we're talking lightning round now. We're getting down the last few, Mr. Wiesmeyer.
SPEAKER_00:Here's the this is the key uh policy issue ahead for corn and soybeans. Why do I say that? Because if if you're going to not have the increase in exports that soybeans, especially, we have record corn exports now, even with the low prices we have, we have record corn exports. But if that means that domestic utilization has to pick up, has to increase. Well, a corn and soybean producer will tell you the key topics in biofuels are year-round E-15. That we had some push this week to either announce it administratively or, better than that, codify it with within Congress through a must-pass bill that will eventually lead to more utilization, year-round E-15. And two, renewable fuel standard program. We need to know the mandated levels, they call them RVOs, mandated levels for corn and renewable diesel and biodiesel for 2026 and 2027 that was supposed to come out by now, but now more news reports are commenting on what we talked about a month ago, that it's probably going to be delayed until early next year in 2026. Then you have the uh 45Z program, uh sustainable aviation fuel, that could be a big pickup for the utilization of soybeans and corn, depending on the eligibility factor and the other rules. IRS and Treasury say they're too busy implementing the uh one big beautiful bill tax measures, uh, and this could be delayed until 2026 as well. Well, we're delaying because we you got to know the rules in order to have the potential of increase in domestic utilization for corn and soybeans. So that's frustrating more than a few producers out there, and I don't blame them for being frustrated.
SPEAKER_02:Well, we had some breaking news in crop insurance and tie this into what you learned in crop insurance.
SPEAKER_00:We also have a chart to yeah, USDA. Yeah, show the chart because they announced they put out a press release this morning, and it was mostly good news because they said, you know, the key benefits include easier prevent plant uh qualification, but I'll have it updated. That simpler provider switching. If a farmer switches providers, it's kind of complex now. You know, it's like like canceling a subscription online. You know, some some firms you know, it's oh it's hard to cancel, expanded beginning farmer benefits, improved specialty crop coverage, fair dispute processes, farmers need that, local flexibility on coverage dates and refund protections for revenue policies. But let me go back to the first one prevent plant. What they didn't say in the USDA release is what had those Nebraska farmers upset. And I know when I go down south, I'll hear it. They did away with the five percent buyup for prevent plant. So it's limited to 50%. Yeah. Why did they do that in the rule that that that they put out on this this morning? You know, once I got time to read the rule, it said, well, we really don't need the five percentage point buy-up for prevent plant because it mainly goes to the Dakotas. Well, tell that to Nebraska, tell that to the 800,000 or so acres of prevent plant in Arkansas and bordering states this year. So the the reason uh the reason they don't say it's because the Office of Management and Budget told USDA to do away with the 5% buy-up for prevent plant. And at this late date, when farmers are making decisions, that that's not the way to go, Tommy. So hopefully this will be reversed. As they if they hear half of the negatives I've been hearing on this one ever since they announce it, they announced it, they better modify it back to where it was before. You don't you don't make those late changes.
SPEAKER_02:Tell the folks sitting in back, who is the they you keep talking about?
SPEAKER_00:They that well, it's risk management agency, but they're only as good as what they can get approved by the Office of Management and Budget. So when you hear RMA, that's risk management agency, that's the crop insurance agency that works with the private industry. And I've always said the best farm programs that I've ever seen in my uh long career has been crop insurance, because it's the best joint venture between the government and the private industry. And those crop insurance agents and underwriters, they they do a fantastic job and they're they don't rest on the laurels. There's constant changes out there. And what I also picked up for in in Nebraska is I know Farmers Mutual Hail and a number of other underwriters, they're increasingly getting artificial intelligence in part of their crop insurance programs. Tommy, what I uh saw and heard of how AI is going to help the complexity of dealing with so many options that a farmer has in crop insurance, believe it or not, it's going to make it easier. And within a minute, you can ask a query, a program that will be coming out. It's available from some groups right now. That's the step in the right direction as we get into better and better risk management tools. Would you have that if you wouldn't have private industry? No. So the private industry is doing a heck of a job there.
SPEAKER_02:Which brings up the last question. 2026 crop plantings. What are we going to plant, Jim?
SPEAKER_00:Well, not the last one. We didn't get to the farmer aid. Let's first get to that. We didn't. Did I skip? Oh, you skipped the farmer aid.
SPEAKER_02:That's the oh Jim, you're calling me out.
SPEAKER_00:How did you sent that back? Yeah, is it next week or another next week? You'll recall that last week. We hit we hit Secretary Rollins. There's the goalpost again. Rollins said a week ago it would be out this week. Now, to she was hit hard this past week from from saying, Well, it won't be this week, but it'll be next week. Now, to defend her, Tuesday they had a cabinet meeting, and she said a key line, Mr. President. Next week we will be announcing with you a farmer aid plan. The problem is I think they were ready to go last week, but it didn't fit Trump's schedule. Okay. So they had to delay it. Now the word is it's coming next week. Now, what's it gonna be? I I the the it they're starting to leak now a little on this one. I think the total funding level I keep hearing will be north of$12 billion. So let's range it,$12 to$14 billion. And it will be it will include not just a trade mitigation program. It just won't be because of the downturn in some crops, uh, soybeans, sorghum, cotton, as a result of uh China's previous boycott of of our products, but it also will be low price, low price aid uh as a bridge into 2026. And it will also include specialty crops. Now that's a chunk of crops there, and it'll take some money for specialty crops. So row crops may not get as much as they could have otherwise, but I'm not saying that's a bad that that's a bad development because specialty crops need it too. So it looks like next week,$12 to$14 billion in total funding. Listen to see how they're gonna make the payments. Rollin said uh last week that they would be made in early January. I think that's very optimistic. I would say the first quarter of 2026, we're gonna have to.
SPEAKER_02:We need that money to renew operating, Jim.
SPEAKER_00:Absolutely. And that's where the bridge is correct. You need a bridge because I know I hear from farmers, I heard from them in Nebraska, and I get a lot of emails saying from some, not the majority, the minority. What like why you know why does a farmer who bought all that high price price land in Iowa and Illinois, why do they need a payment, you know? And I usually ask them, are you going to reject the payment if offered? Well, they say no, but still. But this a bridge is needed because I don't have to go to another state to hear the hurt. It's like uh President uh Clinton used to say. I feel your pain. There's a lot of pain out there, Tommy. And we've had two several years of lower prices. And although farmers had equity, thank goodness a number of most of them had equity built up, they have drained most, if not all, of that equity. That's why you need that cash flow, because it's not going to be until the fall of 2026 where we will have a much better safety net. Where the current farm doc out of the University of Illinois says that we're going to get about six billion dollars or so in payments to corn producers alone in 2025 crops. So that's why you need that bridge. And there could be several bridges. When we get the announcement, let's hope it's next week. Listen to see whether or not they say that some additional funding could come in uh the early part of 2026 if needed. That's one unknown. Listen for that. And the second one I would say is whether or not they mentioned GT Thompson and House A Committee Chairman and John Bozeman, Senate A Committee Chairman, are working on a farmer aid package similar to what they had last December of that$10 billion in farmer aid. So at least we know the questions to listen for whenever they announce it, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02:Absolutely. You get a little drink. I want to remind folks one more time about signing up for premium content. I'll tell you what, I watch the YouTube analytics and not everyone watches to the end. So if in the next week you sign up for premium content, I will send you back your$25. If you sign up for the$250, you will instantly get a credit from me for$25. If you sign up for one month for$25, I'll send your$25 back. That is my Christmas gift to you. I promise you, you will like Mr. Mr. Premium content. Mr. Weesmeier, I knew you need to get a drink of water. So that's the uh talk about myself, which I just love. The farmers in Iowa, I gotta tell you about the farmers in Iowa. They were so optimistic, they were such great guys, and gals, the wives were out. They they they they're sometimes you know you're great public speaker. When you ask the crowd to start asking you questions, there's usually someone slow. And as I've learned in public speaking, you usually have to plant a few questions, and then once someone asks a question, they just they won't stop. But I'm sure your crowds ask great questions, true, Jim.
SPEAKER_00:The Nebraska people were fantastic, yeah. They and the Iowa, wherever you go. I usually find Minnesota, they're not they're not timid. They will ask, I think it must be cold weather. They they are really interested in finding answers. And of course, when I go south, I'm a southerner at heart. I come from southern Illinois originally, but I love when I go to the south, to the rice growers and then to the cane people in next uh year, where I will learn again. While I can drink with the Cajun, I can't keep drinking with the Cajun. Okay, I learn that each year. And then as I said, next Wednesday, yeah, I'll be speaking in Newton, Kansas. It's the best cattle and wheat program I go to each year, and that's jam-packed, wall-to-wall people, growers. And and I learn as much from them, hopefully, as they learn from me, Tommy. But uh the spirit is there, but farmers are cautious now. They they need the cash flow. They don't want to say it, but but you can tell it from their the types of questions they ask.
SPEAKER_02:Last one, 2026 crop plannings, and you have a chart to what you want me to pop up, right?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, this was from an economist chart, and they're saying more soybeans next year, fewer uh corn. I just think it's a parlor game right now in December to talk about this. We have to look at the crop insurance programs, we have to see the the demand situation. Amen.
SPEAKER_02:What if the corn farmers got paid five billion dollars this year? True, yeah.
SPEAKER_00:That that all factors in. Oh, but but at least this is what at least the mindset of some economists probably who sit on the second or third floor of their building. So I don't think it's ground truth to tell you the truth. So I I've learned over the decades farmers love to grow corn.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, they don't build a bin in a dryer, multi-million dollar bin and dryer, and have all those trucks to go, well, we harvested the crop, delivered it to the elevator, and we're done.
SPEAKER_00:Yes. Uh, the other question I got a lot that didn't surprise me, but it jumped out at every producer I talked to was in Nebraska. They're saying, you know, we're still paying$800 or higher for fertilizer. What's going on? Is there any hope and things like that? I said, well, uh, and they said$900 if they wait until next year to buy. The suppliers are sitting on a lot of high price, high-priced product, where I don't think I really legitimately don't think in most cases it's price gouging. I think it's a series of events why we continue to have higher input prices. And big time, it's the way we've run our trade policy. We've shut off uh Moroccan products. China has been holding back on fertilizer, etc. And but I did hear that a lot when I went out. The fertilizer prices are not lessening, they're still very firm, and that's got that's cutting into the margins.
SPEAKER_02:Interesting you say that. I was asked that also. I didn't answer it. I didn't even try to answer it. I said I didn't come here to talk to you about fertilizer prices, and you're gonna have to go ask the three people in the world who control them, and they go, understand your point. All right, leave us with something optimistic. Don't forget, folks, Mr. Weesmeier is traveling next week, and a lot of the winner. I know we're starting to get asked to do a few gigs together. If you'd ever like to see Tommy and Jim speak together, will you get two for one? No, you don't get two for one. You gotta pay for both. But we'll come and do this live stream at your farm, your meeting, your ranch. We'll bring the cameras, lights, equipment. Might even see me put a little powder on my face. And uh Jim always does his hair up real nice. So uh, where do people see you speak uh this week?
SPEAKER_00:Well, I'm sorry.
SPEAKER_02:Where are people one more time, where are they gonna see you speak?
SPEAKER_00:Oh, in New Orleans for the rife growers meeting of Monday afternoon. I speak, and then Tuesday I catch a plane event to Wichita and then drive up to Newton, Kansas. I've very good friends there. Dave Spears, who's now retired from MKC Co-op, is the co-op, but uh I'll have dinner with him, he and some growers, and then I speak uh Wednesday, and then I fly back to Washington, D.C., get back in the early morning Thursday, about 12:30, and then I go downtown to Georgetown, D.C. and speak to the peanut growers. Haven't spoken with them for a few years. So that's that's what I like, Tommy. You hear ground truth from different groups and different regions of the U.S. And it keeps you a little more honest because it's not just Illinois or Iowa, although I love those two states, but you hear from different factions when you go to Fargo in February and South Dakota, Nebraska, etc. And it makes you humble that that this diversity that we have. And I'll end it with the good news. Next week, let's assume that they're correct now, this time, that we're going to get an aid package announced. Yeah, this will hopefully be a bridge, a c a true bridge that doesn't have many cracks in it to 2026 that won't make farmers whole. It is not a bailout, but it's a taxpayer assistance for a job well done and the acknowledgement that food is security in this great country, and we're going to see it again with income transfers that are mostly needed in the farm country.
SPEAKER_02:We'll leave it there. Thanks, my friend. I'll see you next week. Sure.
