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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | How A Hot USDA Report Could Reprice Corn | More farmer aid needed!
We set the table for a high-stakes USDA report that could reset corn’s balance sheet while we track the real levers of demand: E15, ethanol octane, and 45Z. Along the way, we unpack rates, USMCA, trade rulings, cattle supply constraints, and new dietary guidelines that tilt toward protein.
• Corn yield revisions and feed use as key price drivers
• Soybeans steady, wheat following corn rather than leading
• Fertilizer costs and tighter credit squeezing margins
• Ethanol as fastest demand lever with year-round E15
• 45Z timing for sustainable aviation fuel tax credits
• USMCA’s role in corn exports to Canada and Mexico
• Interest rate outlook, CPI data, and FSA loan options
• SCOTUS trade authority case and tariff alternatives
• Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Russia risks and sanctions spillovers
• Screw worm, border constraints, and firm beef prices
• Dietary guidelines favoring protein and full-fat dairy
• Minnesota politics, fraud concerns, and budget strain
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Thank you, Tommy G
Muted. Let's start again. Welcome back, everyone. Tom Grossoffee. You're listening to the Ag Bull Podcast, Egg Bull Media, Egg Bull Trading. This is Weiss Meyer's Perspectives. We are coming into January. Hot USDA report. Monday. Jim's going to have some color on that. We got a lot of things to talk about. Jim's been traveling. I can't wait to see how he hears, you know, from real folks in agriculture, what they have to say, how they're feeling, a lot of confusion about a lot of things, a lot of concern. And hopefully Jim helped get some of that clear with folks. With that, let's bring him in the show here after I play this little video. Handsome alert. Mr. Weeksmeyer coming up in the next 30 seconds.
SPEAKER_01:American Soybean Association leadership meeting. Always like meeting with the soybean, you know, grower groups there, and my good friends in the soybean industry. And good weather, lots of questions. And they uh were they just thought their payment rate for soybeans, which they thought was too low, Tommy, relative to the bridge assistance loan program. And they think uh USDA didn't adequately factor in that uh a lot of farmers were forced to sell at lower prices, and that would have changed the payment rate. So a little disconcerned there. They were appreciative of that, uh, the aid, and uh some other aspects. They know that they gotta pump up the domestic utilization of of soybeans because we're we've got some trade uh policy uh issues in in the soybean industry, not just uh China. And I told them, I said I had some good news for them when I spoke to them because this coming week the Office of Management is Management and Budget OMB is meeting with eight separate groups relative to the 45 Z program. Now, what does that mean? There's a little progress. Maybe we'll start getting a shortly thereafter. Maybe I know by the end of this month, we should finally get some tax decisions of how the 45Z program, uh sustainable aviation fuel, is going to be implemented, at least for 2025. Regretfully, I think they're they won't uh detail the other years, 2026 to 2029, until late in the first quarter of this year. Yeah, you are later, maybe as late as June of this year. So that's not good news for the for the sector there. But bottom line from the soybeans, they're raring to go for the uh new crop. The bridge A program helped, but they need more help from the marketplace. Then later in the week, I spoke to uh Pro Ag uh Yo Services, that's the Pam Vipon group. Oh, it was standing room only. I stayed at a place I had never been to, and you know the Detroit Lakes area in Minnesota. I loved the oh, I just I would I would spend my own money to go back there. I mean, it was, and they had some hole-in-the-wall bars I would have loved to to attend, but didn't have the time. But it was a beautiful town, and I hear you told me it it it's three times the population and the summer.
SPEAKER_00:Quadruples, yeah. It Detroit Lake's 15,000 people goes up to 50,000, and they have all types of concerts and they have a big summer fest out there called We Fest, and they get all the big names from Nashville. It's just it's a good time, good people. Yep, Jim, real quick in North Dakota, we really don't have lakes. I mean, we have Detroit Lake, but that's more of a deep, you know, fishing lake. It's not something you pontoon on so much as to go water skiing. But North Dakota doesn't really have lakes, so everyone, almost everyone, goes to Minnesota, depending on where you are in the state. And then if you don't have a lake house, you want to be friends with someone who has a lake house. So the best boat you could own is your friend's boat. You know, you bring the beer and stuff and uh go from there.
SPEAKER_01:I learned that a long time ago from actually a cotton producer. He said one of the secrets is don't own your own boat, have a friend who owns one, and you save a lot of money that way.
SPEAKER_00:We'll be talking about Minnesota a lot in this episode. Uh the the if you watch about Minnesota on the news, you think it's crazy. When you go to Minnesota, they're the best people in the world, they're the most wholesome people in the world. Some of my best friends. I mean, you got to be careful on uh they're talking about certain areas and certain cities, everything else. Anyway, Minnesota hotspot. We'll talk about that in a little bit. All right, let's get in the show. Real quick before we get in the show, let's let's not bullshit anyone. If they want to see Weesmeyer stuff, they go right to the uh Eggbull website. And as fast as Jim's putting that out, we're getting it there. Just hired another young uh broker and media guy. He's going to be really getting a lot of updates out on the website. If you like the content we're producing, most of the content Tom Grossoffin and Eggbowl Media are producing now is premium content. I'm throwing this ad out there in the beginning because if you're like I I'm clicking, I can't get anything. It says I'm not a subscriber. You need to subscribe$25 a month,$250 annually. We smire stuff is free. And that's because Jim and I sponsor the show. Now, as they say, sometimes freeze too expensive, Jim. Have you ever heard that saying? Sometimes freeze too expensive.
SPEAKER_01:Well, I had a number of Minnesota uh drillers say that they listened to the podcast and they were very appreciative. And even of you, Tommy, that you bring the market perspective. So I wanted to bring that back to you.
SPEAKER_00:Thank you. And you know, right now today I'm in uh Mayville, North Dakota. It is Sunday. I have an office here at First State Bank. Big shout out to the folks at First State Bank, they're great, they do charge me rent, but I still love them. And I'm here in Mayville, North Dakota. I just went to a shout-out to Elliot Cattle. I went to Clifford, North Dakota and watched Elliot have a great uh sale. They had some bulls and some heifers. They went for good money, Jim. They went for really good money. There was no shortage of people raising their hands in uh DV auction had that. All right, let's get to business here because we're gonna talk cattle, we're gonna talk Minnesota, we're gonna talk so much. But first and foremost, tomorrow's the big bad USDA. I'm gonna disappear. We're gonna go full screen on you because you are the man with the plan. Tell us what the market's gonna do tomorrow at 11 o'clock. Easy questions first, sir.
SPEAKER_01:We're gonna know because that could be one of the more important days of the whole marketing year, because that's when we're gonna get the annual summary on corn and soybeans. A yield cut is very likely for corn. I depends on who you talk with. The average Bloomberg survey was about two bushels an acre, although there are some people down four bushels per acre. And there's your dividing line, Tommy, between a neutral report, I think is down two bushels, a more friendly report is if you're down four bushels. And we're gonna see. And important, and we're also gonna get grain stocks out of there, but uh the important variable is gonna be feed residual use in that first quarter.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, that's that ruler they move back and forth, right? That's their fudge number.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and historically, well, the grain stocks report, yeah, it's probably the weakest survey of all the surveys USDA does, and because it's on farm stocks and in transit, in transit, uh, it's hard to peg, but about 40% of the annual feed and residual demand occurs between September and November. So that makes tomorrow's report of usage a key test. So once we see the number, we can go from there. We're gonna see whether or not, and you also have to watch harvested acres because they can fiddle around the harvest, not just you know, they're not just yield, they can affect the harvested acre as well and the demand, as we said, both feed and and exports. That's corn, so but that's uh big focus on the corn. Soybeans, uh average trade guest sees it down just a little bit because pod weights appeared a bit light, but they don't see much from what the last the the November yield estimate was 53 bushels per acre. So uh some people see just uh 0.3 bushels. I mean, that's a rounding air to me. So we're gonna see on soybeans. I think corn will be the leader of this report. Wheat, corn's gonna likely still lead the price direction. Wheat stocks are gonna be updated, they'll play a secondary role. Most people tell me most anticipated wheat wheat stocks near 1.64 billion bushels. That would be above last year's. So exports are running at a five-year high for wheat. A lot of people don't know that with large domestic and global supplies. Continue to put to put a governor on prices. So you can only go up so far in the wheat market before that wheat uh overhanging world wheat market gets at you. What's the bottom line, Tommy, on this? Corn yield revisions and early season demand, especially the feed and residual use, are the key drivers of Monday's report to watch. Soybeans look for stable uh markets barring a surprise. Uh wheat prices are likely to follow corn's lead anyway, rather than set their own direction.
SPEAKER_00:Very good. Let's go to national NCGA corn outlooking. You had some really nice charts for this, Jim.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, well, let's step through them because they're economist. Let me see. I'm going here. Let me see. I'm pulling up my notes here.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, that's fine. I'll read off this chart. It says corn planet acres from pattern in recent years. We got year 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, and 26p. I imagine that means perspective, right?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and you can see them going down a little bit. Now, this is just USDA's baseline projections, but the rising US and global supplies are going to continue to pressure prices, absent a demand shift. But the soybean to corn price ratio currently favors corn again. If that continues, you're only going to have modest acreage cuts in the in in the corn. That's that's kind of what this uh shows. And we can we we show the corn, you know, the soybean to corn price ratio. And it has to clearly favor soybeans before you get what what we know to be a significant shift from corn into beans. Corn producers love planting corn. They do. Yeah, I don't know many things in ag, but that's one I'm sure of. You can I remember Merrill Oster, the originator, the the farmer of uh a pro farmer, when he was building a new home in the 70s, that goes way back. Just a little, you know, really brief here. He had a big picture window and it was looking out to the corn fields. But when the builder saw that it was going to be there, he switched it to the other side. He didn't think that Merrill would just want to look at corn growing, but that's exactly what he wanted. So they had to put the picture window right back so he could see the corn growing. That's a corn producer right there.
SPEAKER_00:That's a good story, Jim.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, it is.
SPEAKER_00:It is there any more color on these charts here? This corn acre signal. So you mean you go right to the other call.
SPEAKER_01:The driver of the cost side is the fertilizer. Because why fertilizer accounts for around one-third of corn operating cost? So even small swings can if affect the margins for corn. That's why you have to watch those fertilizer prices. And wherever I go to speak, Tommy, and I know you hear it as well. What's going to happen to fertilizer in the future and things like that? But here's a little long-term policy thing. I know there are some farm policy experts looking at the farm bill of the future in which they can build in a uh uh a uh protection tool in Title I that would at least take into consideration input cost. Now, I don't know how they do that, but I'm telling you, I don't think the farm bill of the future is gonna look anything like the farm bill of the past, and that's a good thing. So we've had continued years of input cost being high to relatively high, and now you're gonna see that uh delve into a farm bill discussion for the future. That's my policy spin on that one. The next one is farm finances. Look at that. It shows the working capital has eroded. Uh, we have tighter credit conditions, and that's raising financial risk heading heading into this year's crop. And you can see it right there in that chart. The corn price drops substantially substantially more than the cost to produce. In other words, we're underwater in many producers. Not all, but most. And that's why we have this bridge loan, Tommy, because we have to we have to get enough cash flow in in order to plant that crop until we get hopefully higher prices from the real market. And if not, then we get that big ARC or PLC payment in October of this year.
SPEAKER_00:That's unbelievable. The money's just not enough, Jim. I talked to uh a client in uh Texas and he said, I said, Hey, you got a nice payment for your I'll jump in here real quick. I said, Hey, you got a nice payment for your cotton. He goes, Yeah, the only problem is my wife and I both maxed out just on the cotton we planted. We planted a ton of corn and some beans. We didn't get any money for corn. We didn't get any money for beans that you hit that cap so quickly. Yeah, yeah. What it's gonna do, it's gonna get it's gonna make everybody if someone has a heartbeat, they're gonna call themselves a farmer, a son, a daughter, a daughter-in-law, and they're just gonna keep setting up entities. I mean, either raise the money or you know, do something. Also, and I'll I'll send you the email. A nice man he emailed into the Eggbow website and he gave me beautiful compliments to you and I, everything else, but he said the wheat was off from when it was planted this year. 25 crop isn't getting a payment because it was planted. I was a little lost to be honest with you. I didn't know how to tell him, I didn't have a damn clue what he was talking about. I understood what he meant, but I'm not a crop insurance guy, I'm not a legislator, I don't work at the USDA. I'm a markets guy. Like the second I get there with this video, I'm gonna go trade 5,000 ounces of silver. You know, that's what I do for a living, and and I'm a broker, but they're listening, and there are some serious complaints with this bill, Jim.
SPEAKER_01:Well, on the on the wheat side, I'm just talking last year's crop. When I was in Kansas in December, the Kansas wheat producers uh there didn't think they were in the same state because they had relatively continued rainfall throughout the season, and they're not used to that, Tommy. So you had uh a lot of wheat in Kansas, so that's a good thing. At least they had the bushels, but help is on the way because uh the one big beautiful bill has a significant increase, at least in the reference price for wheat. So at least the safety net is getting better for the wheat side there. Going back to the NCGA, their point number four is interest rates and the macro environment backdrop and monetary policy. We know Tommy can tip the balance between a manageable cash flow and razor-thin margins. And we we we have a federal open market committee FOMC meeting near the end of this month. I can almost tell you that there's uh not quite 100%, but we're close to 100% that there will be no change in the Fed's interest rate. That's because we had a job jobs report out uh Friday that really increased the likelihood that there would be no change. But that that doesn't mean there won't be any further interest rates cuts this calendar year. Most people say two, if not three, further cuts as the year goes on. But we have a CPI report, consumer price index report of this week, and that'll that'll be also important relative to the Fed's decision because it'll it'll determine whether or not there's been any progress on that sticky inflation that we've seen. And you can see where the federal funds rate are down from the cycle high there in our chart in 2024. So the trend is our friend there. Interest rates are lower and they're going to go lower. By this time next year, they'll be percent to a percentage point and a half uh lower. You know, at the Minnesota, at the Pam ViPon meeting, one of her uh uh sons who helped run the company. I always love family-owned companies, I really do, and they she has some great partners working with her. One of them mentioned, and I I think it bears merit, that don't forget loan economics because USDA's uh rate is really lower than prevailing market interest rate. So if you do need a loan, look at that FSA office loan because it's got a fairly attractive uh interest rate for cash flow, if nothing else, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00:Oh, absolutely. Also, while you were traveling, you might not have caught this. I think you did, but Trump did that thing. I was trading one day, and he said, we're gonna buy 200 billion worth of mortgage-backed bonds through Fannie and Freddie, and that popped the bond market. When I say pop the border trade bond market, that actually means rates went down. He out of nowhere kind of did QE5 half half half hazardly through uh tweet or true social. Did you catch that, Jim?
SPEAKER_01:I did, and and it did have immediate impact. Number one, because it caught analysts and traders off guard. So that that was one point. And two, it made sense. You know, that that's uh a chunk of money, and it drove down real interest rates for the real estate sector. And that's a and that's Scott Besson and others, the you know, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson and others in his administration saying, you know, we've got to get this housing market turned around because housing and energy drives this country. The housing market, once you get the new purchases going on, whether it's a new home or an older home, Tommy, you automatically go out to a Home Depot or whatever and buy things for your new house. And that just it just fuels the the economy. Trump knows that, but that was a good sign that we need to get that's an innovative program that what he came up with. So I applaud that move.
SPEAKER_00:Let's go back one minute. Are you saying that a Trump true social caught traders off guards? Absolutely.
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely, it did. They were they were shot now. They didn't like uh the other one that he did is that they don't want the other one institutions to own housing. You know, that didn't that didn't go over so well. So he was batting one for two, but that's still five hundred in this town.
SPEAKER_00:We're going off the rails. But then on Friday he said there's gonna be no interest rates on credit cards higher than ten percent. I'm gonna get this worked out.
SPEAKER_01:Oh yeah, I'll believe. That when I see it, okay. Oh boy. Don't hold your breath on that one.
SPEAKER_00:So that was interest rates. We talked about that. Let's go to USMCA review, is a uh demand part. Yeah, what's that mean, Jim?
SPEAKER_01:Well, look at that chart. It it shows you that the Canada, U.S., and Mexico are vital partners. And look at the U.S. corn export success. The US MCA is working. So I just hope the Trump administration realizes that and doesn't follow it up. We we have a North American market. Yes, it's not perfect, but we have good allies in Canada and Mexico. And this just shows it that uh, you know, look at uh the the impact of of corn exports in the USMCA, which is$6.1 billion, the rest of the world is$10.3 billion. That's enough said. That's your bottom line, right there. And it should continue because we're gonna go through huffs and puffs in the USMCA renegotiation that really begins in earnest. July of this year. We could have one year annual extensions as as all countries try to get leverage. But USMCA, as far as I'm concerned, is here to stay, and that's a good thing.
SPEAKER_00:Let's go to the next one. Ethanol expansion is the fastest demand lever.
SPEAKER_01:That's why, as much like soybeans in the in the sustainable aviation fuel and the biodiesel and renewable diesel, in corn, ethanol remote remains the most scalable near-term demand catalyst. And it's got some big low carbon uses shaping longer-term growth. In the chart, we show we show motor gasoline use is is estimated to decline over time. Well, we know that the renewable fuel standard is based on gasoline consumed, so that means the mandated level is is not going to increase, but this is where the higher octane rebranding of ethanol is going to kick in. And this is why we need year-round E15. We need really E20 or above, because look at the increase in corn utilization if you go from E10 to E15. That's a 50% increase just right there. It's a very, very important aspect. And I think that you will see, Tommy, uh, in a must-pass bill, probably by the end of this month. Finally, Congress will codify, not just the administration in an executive order. I think Congress is going to codify year-round E-15, and that's a step in the right direction because the corn growers have the American Petroleum Institute back on board in support of that initiative. So the odds now are increasing that we're finally going to see it. So, what's the bottom line of that NCGA's economist report? They see 2026 is a year of tight margins, driven by abundant supply and increased cost. And they say the path to stabilization runs through policy and demand, safeguarding USMCA, which we went through, expanding ethanol blends now, and positioning ethanol for new markets ahead with E-15, E20, year-round E-15, sustainable aviation and fuel. How all those levers move is going to determine, Tommy, whether corn prices just tread water or begin to recover. There is your secret in the corn market right there.
SPEAKER_00:Sounds good. We need it to recover, Jim. SCOTUS decision ahead on Trump trade policy. That's this Wednesday, folks. That could be a big deal.
SPEAKER_01:Well, some people thought it was going to be Friday, Tommy. And uh I was I wrote that we could get it as early as Friday. And I would say the same thing. We could get it as early as Wednesday. It's not a for sure thing, but it's a major, major, um, major topic because it it's gonna be it's gonna determine the constitutionality or lack thereof of President Trump's uh trade policy. So it depends what lawyer you talk with. Uh 75% of the of the uh betting markets the betting markets, yeah. Yeah, are they thinking that it'll go against the Trump administration? I'm not so sure. I I think uh this is a conservative tilted Supreme Court. But let's just say Trump does lose this case. Kevin Hassett, the National Economic Council director, and Scott Bessant, Treasury Secretary, say they're ready to go with alternatives that will be more cumbersome. It won't be as easy to implement Trump's trade policy, aggressive trade policy. Now, here's one where I get wherever I go from farmers in a question has there been true additionality of uh increases in exports of U.S. farm commodities as a result of all the hoops that we've been trying to go through in Trump's uh trade policy? And it's a fair question and a hard one. And I say we don't have the evidence yet. Now, in the case of ethanol, we can cite additionality, increased exports, increased trade. Two, in the case of rice for Japan, we have an increase in their market share in Japan. But I think the verdict is still out, Tommy, on on whether or not it's going to be true additionality for trade.
SPEAKER_00:And you keep seeing them hedging their bet with uh uh Bessent and uh also uh oh the former head of Canada Fitzgerald Jamison Greer, Jameson Greer and also the former head of Canada Fitzgerald, uh the commerce secretary, uh Howard Ludnik. Yeah, he they're all like, well, you know, there's a lot of things we can do. All right. Speaking of things we can do, this is a hot topic. Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Russia. What's the oh boy, this could be a show in itself. Go ahead.
SPEAKER_01:Well, uh news on Venezuela this coming week. We could see a reduction in some of the sanctions, our protection of Venezuela. So that means, although we're gonna be there a while, I've been asked that a lot. Venezuela is very important in the Western Hemisphere for the United States. Of course, it has a lot to do with oil. Yes, there's your chess game. And what we had Iran's flaring up because of the protest over there. And Trump has already said, you know, if you kill uh people, and they have killed people, uh you can get a figure of 200 to as many as 500 people killed in Iran. The the news today on Sunday is that the White House is reviewing options relative to Iran. There won't be troops on the ground in Iran, but watch for uh uh action in the next week or so on Iran, then Cuba. Uh I think the clock is ticking on on Cuba, yeah, 90 miles off of our Florida coast. And because Venezuela protected, you know, vice versa, they helped each other. Well, now with the with the boycotting of oil uh going into from Venezuela into Cuba, the clock is ticking, Tommy. They're they're gonna they're they're gonna fold. I don't know when. It's probably gonna not gonna be as soon as what the White House thinks, but you can't keep going without oil in any country, and Cuba's trying to, and they they won't. So you you group all of this together and of course mention Russia too, because here's your potential market uh uh significance of Russia right now. We well know that they're in a war that they started with Ukraine. Now, there's a bill in Congress being spearheaded in the Senate that would invoke 500 500, you heard that right, percent tariffs on countries purchasing oil from Russia. Now, just think through this. I've got a story coming up later today in my week ahead that if that's the case, China's a big purchaser of Russian oil. Does that mean we're gonna put a lot more tariffs back onto China? And if that's the case, here we go all over again relative to the US soy being fisticuffs in the trade environment. I'm not predicting that, I'm just saying this bill is something to watch. That would be wild because if they pass it, don't be surprised of the market reaction if it's going to go through. Okay. But but and then grouping all these countries together, you know, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Russia, a number of farmers recently have said, you know, are we doing too much too fast? I said, Trump would say no. He he's he just knows that we have to move. He knew, he thinks he has to move pretty fast. But there's a there's a growing mindset in, I don't care whether you're Democrat or Republican, that I'm starting to hear saying, boy, I can hardly even keep up with what's going on in the world. So they're just saying this is just increasing the element of uncertainty, Tommy. And a lot of people just don't like that. They're tired, they're exhausted of this stuff.
SPEAKER_00:So so much going on. All right, happier subject. Farm Bureau Annual Convention. Rollins speaks Monday.
SPEAKER_01:Rollins speaks late Monday afternoon. Tippy Duvall, uh, from uh the the head of Farm Bureau. Yeah, it's going to be curious to see what uh Brooke Rollins says. Now, she when she gives speeches to actual farm groups, okay, she usually has a three or five-point plan. So I would listen to what she's going to say relative to her perspective on the outlook. Will there be additional aid from the administration? Unlikely. How are the aid programs going to roll out? Remember, by February the 28th, they'll start paying out the$11 billion in bridge payments, Tommy. And I think that they'll meet that, if not sooner, because it's a it's a fairly straightforward calculation. So we're gonna have to listen to what she says on the future. Let's just hope she doesn't say we're going into the golden era because we need to come out of this ditch first.
SPEAKER_00:When she says we're going in the golden age, the golden age, golden age, whatever.
SPEAKER_01:But now Tippi Duvall spoke today, and he said what most of us have heard before that he thinks the the uh$11 billion plus$1 billion for uh specialty crops and sugar is just not enough, especially for specialty crops. I I heard that in Minnesota, and and I heard from producers who were lose losing at least$300 an acre in in North Dakota and Minnesota, if not more, if not more. And a lot of the sugar producers told me about their concern about tier two sugar coming in from a number of countries, that they're paying the the extra tariffs to in order to bring more sugar in. And that's putting downward pressure on U.S. sugar prices. But Duvall from Farm Bureau also said that he pushed a year-round E15, and he says some farm state lawmakers should legislate another economic aid program because frankly, he said it's it's it's needed. So there were his major major uh uh uh items in in his speech. It wasn't surprising, but at least the leader of the largest farm group is saying that. And and the farm state lawmakers listen to that.
SPEAKER_00:What city do you have, Rollin' speaking in on Monday?
SPEAKER_01:Uh 230. She's speaking at 230. From DC or no, she's there. She's there. Oh, she's at the yeah, and there's gonna be a farm panel, too. I think GT Thompson, maybe, I guess Bozeman's there. Maybe the ranking people, uh Klovachar and Angie Craig from the House side. Yeah, there's GT. Now, GT, speaking of GT, he wants to get a farm bill, a skinny farm bill, farm bill 2.0, voted on in the in the house in February. It used to, he used to say January. Well, it ain't gonna be this month. So we're gonna see. I, you know, I still think it's an uphill battle to get a skinny farm bill through because of the animosity on the Democratic side that they don't like the cuts that the Republicans made in food stamp program and some in the conservation area. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't think we're gonna see a Farm Bill 2.0 this year. They'll just kick the can down the road and extend it another year.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, you mentioned uh Klobuchar, that's our next headline. Well, Senator Amy Klobuchar, enter race to Minnesota governor. Minnesota's been all over the news while you're out speaking.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, let me. And I'll tell you, I sat down and talked with a number of those Minnesota growers, and there wasn't one, Tommy, who said they supported her running for the governor's race. They like her, and they think that she'll have more clout continuing to be a ranking member in the Democratic Party in the Senate. And if the Democrats were to regain control of the Senate, although unlikely in my judgment, that if they were, she would be the Senate Ag Committee chairwoman. And they like her because they think that she at least works in part with the opposing party. She's more practical than a lot of other members of the of the Democratic Party. And widespread support I saw in Minnesota for Amy Klobuchar. We're going to see whether or not now she can still keep her Senate spot if she runs for governor, until if she if she does, you know, run and win it, of course, then she has to relinquish her her Senate post. But at first, I thought she would go for that Senate for you know for the governor's race. Now I'm not quite so sure. Would you want to go into the morass called Minnesota right now? No. Because she's she's gonna be bogged out. Now she was a prosecutor, uh, so she knows what she's doing in that regard. But boy, that's a minefield there that that uh that I don't know whether you'd want to jump into. But that's what I picked up on Amy Klobuchar, a good lawmaker, one of the ones we need more of, especially in Minnesota, and that they just hope that she doesn't run for the governor's race.
SPEAKER_00:And and I know what everyone's thinking. Are they gonna talk about the shooting? I gotta tell you, Jim, that happened so fast. It's just it's just it just happened too fast. People got to calm down, take a deep breath. We should be able to talk this out. I know as a little kid, I've been pulled over so many damn times for speeding. My dad's like, just obey what they say. Yes, and I'm so I would never go into a toxic environment like that where there's a lot of energy and want to be involved in that. Why are people going to these rallies? And I'll tell you what, in Valparaiso, Indiana, every Saturday at our courthouse, we I live in the the township, you know, like where the for the Porter County where our courthouse is, that they have people out there every weekend. There's about 20 20 demonstrators who have their opinions, no kings, no this, no that. And then there's one guy, one guy who stands across the street with a sign that says they're all nuts, and everyone honks, it goes crazy. But uh, I gotta put a video of that up.
SPEAKER_01:But well, one Minnesota farmer asked me, Jim, yeah, do you think it's safer being on the streets of downtown town, downtown DC or downtown Minneapolis?
SPEAKER_00:DC.
SPEAKER_01:And I said DC, yeah. And the the downside of that is, you know, for I used to go to Minneapolis two to three times a year, and I like Minneapolis. I love Minneapolis for meetings, for farmer meetings. And after the Joy George Floyd thing, they got a lot of meetings were just cut off because of the the perceived um lack of security downtown. Then it started to come uh back up where they started to have more meetings, and I attended a number in Minneapolis, my favorite airport, by the way. I I use it a lot to go to different places and they keep improving it. So they do it right there. But I just hate for the city of Minneapolis, St. Paul, that I think companies are gonna pull back again because they don't they don't like any threats.
SPEAKER_00:The next question we're going down a rabbit hole, but I think that's why we do this show, right? We don't work for anyone, no one's gonna pull the show, it's our damn show. So let's talk about it. Where did all the money go in Minnesota? They had a lot of extra money, it's all gone and they're running a deficit. Successful business owners I know in Minnesota are out and out pissed, Jim. You got any color on that?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, but where were the data checks? And you tell me that Tim Walls did not know. I mean, it's just I took too many logic classes in in college, so there should be an investigation of that. And although you you don't say a particular group is guilty, there are a lot of guilty people that uh that need to uh pay for what they have done, and it's already factored into uh USDA programs. Remember, this is federal fraud, so USDA announced uh late late Friday, yeah. Late Friday, uh almost 200 million dollars pulling back into certain aid aid programs for Minnesota. Bottom line, the fraud numbers are huge, Tommy. And and and and this again, it's added to the morass of of you know Minnesota. You just hate to see it, but where were the checks and balances? Where were the agencies like in federal, you have Office of Management and Budget in the in the community, in the private industry, you have annual reports that that you you have firms that that check on you, you know, with see what everything's kosher. You don't lose this much money to fraud and and and not have any uh have an independent reporter find it out initially, uh as opposed to the mainstream press. Where was the Minneapolis Star Tribune all these months?
SPEAKER_00:I mean they misspelled learning on that sign. That's not a joke, Jim. I think people think that was like AI. They literally had a learning center and the the word learning was misspelled. I just been sense closed, by the way.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I I just hate to see it for the good people of of Minnesota. So they need to get their act cleaned up together, but it's gonna take a long time. You just uh but that's why you have all these investigations and and fraud. I mean, this there's huge amounts of fraud. We don't even know the bottom line yet. Bottom line.
SPEAKER_00:I got a little more color that and you were traveling. You might not have caught this one. I'm trying to stump you this week. Did you see this guy said if you are receiving government aid, we are not going to allow you to wire money outside the country through the treasury. Did you see that one? No, I did not see that. I got you. I got you. All right, I'll send that one to you. Yeah, that'll stop. Like if there's people living in this country and they're only doing it to get money and send back to their home country. He said, if you need government aid, no problem. You're you're not wiring this money out.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, use it internally and for for what it was.
SPEAKER_00:Okay, we went off the rails, but I thought it was important to talk. About I flew here. I had new Elon Musk internet on the United Airlines flight. And I couldn't look at Facebook because every you know, listen, folks, if you have an opinion, put your damn name on the ballot, right? Don't go on Facebook and save the world. Go go run for office and take the ultimate oath and responsibility or start a podcast or do something, but everyone's fighting with everyone. Oh, it's horrible. Anyway, back to the show. Let's get something happy here. This makes me happy. I'm always happy to be with you. Dietary guidelines. I like talking about food. Let's do it.
SPEAKER_01:Okay. They came out and the the soybean growers, when I was down with them, they had a mixed uh opinion because while the protein side they were in favor, you can see that this is an inverted pyramid. Normally we have the pyramid the other way, but to me, I think this looks like a piece of pizza when you when you go through it. But it tells you the significance of what they're trying to do here. Protein, dairy, and healthy fats scored. They were the winners in this one. And vegetable and fruits are winners, but not as much as they have in prior recommendation reports. But what soybean growers did not like is that the seeds, the oil seeds that they did not favor. Okay. So in the ultra-processed foods or highly processed foods came under attack, which which we knew.
SPEAKER_00:Now that'd be the sugar to people in the sugar, is very yeah.
SPEAKER_01:I well, I told the soybean growers, at least you're not sugar. I mean, that this report was very detrimental to sugar. And we've had RFK Jr., the head of uh HHS, say before sugar is poison. Of course it's not poison, but that tells you where the sugar market's at relative to the uh recommendations and his bias against uh sugar. But to put this together, Tommy, most Americans look at the pyramid and things like that, but they'll eat what they want anyway. However, this is important relative to school food and nutrition programs in the government.
SPEAKER_00:Dietary guidelines you have here.
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely, the dietary guidelines, and it does affect the consumption, food stamp programs, etc. So this has a uh a big uh big impact. So again, winners are meat and dairy because they explicitly promote full fat dairy, full fat dairy, and recommend uh X number of proteins of body weight per day, and uh and so but and and the antagonist, the food policy activist like Marian Nestle, she said she didn't like this. And she said these take us back to the diets of the 1950s when everyone was eating lots of meat and dairy and not looking at the floor.
SPEAKER_00:Have you seen a picture of what people look like in 1950 on a beach versus what they look like in 2025? You got some.
SPEAKER_01:They look like me on alcohol. Us yeah, the updated advice drops specific daily limits for men and women with the general message consume less alcohol for better overall health. So that was actually a winner for alcohol, Tommy. Mixed, mixed bag, heart health. Major health groups broadly welcome their focus on fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and reduced added sugar. But the American Heart Association, who's going toe-to-toe against RFK Jr., they cautioned against heavy promotion of red meat and full-fat dairy, but uh that's the way it is. And fruits and vegetables, their advocates say the recommendations are largely unchanged. Now, the losers, as I said before, are processed foods. They call for sharply limiting those highly processed foods. And that's what I think that you'll hear Brooke Rollins say.
SPEAKER_00:I don't see any Doritos on this pie chart here. No, no, no. I love Doritos.
SPEAKER_01:They when they stopped short of adopting the formal ultra-processed definition yet. We still don't have a definition, and that's going to come out in a future Make America Healthy Maha report later this year. So, what's the bottom line? The up and down food pyramid, it it definitely reshapes federal nutrition advice, Tommy, by elevating protein and full-fat dairy. So it's good for portions of the of the ag sector, and it promotes whole foods while easing alcohol limits, and but it takes aim at processed products. So whether it improves public health or deepens confusion, it's gonna depend on how consumers, but more importantly, school and federal meal programs interpret and implement. There's your other key. Implement because schools are saying, you know, it's gonna take us a while to implement this. And I think we have that table. Do you have that up?
SPEAKER_00:This one, the dietary guidelines?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Let me just go through this. Is from uh act food activist Marion Nestle, food politics. She went through some of these, or kind of what does all this mean? How does this compare to the to the last report on dietary guidelines that covered 2020 to 2025 versus this report that covers 2025 to 2030? The number of pages in the prior report was almost 150 pages, Tommy. This time, only 10 pages. Only 10 pages. Protein sees an increase in protein in the diets for this time. Dairy was about the same. Vegetables and fruits are actually a decrease in the volume of recommendations per day. Fats, they want to prioritize animal sources, and this is what's got the soybean people upset. Saturated fat, about the same. Grains decrease, but priority prioritize whole grains. Processed foods are a major improvement to limit and avoid those processed foods. Added sugar, limit, if not avoid them. So stronger. Sodium was about the same. Alcohol, it's weaker. So eat more animal source foods, full fat dairy, vegetables, fruits, health fats, butter, beef, tallow, all grains. Eat less of added sugars, refined grains, chemical additives, fruit and vegetable juices, highly processed foods and beverages, sodium and alcohol. So there's in a nutshell what they put out, some winners and losers.
SPEAKER_00:And the way my fitness friend describes it is when you go to the grocery store, stay in the outside aisles, almost never go on the inside, and you'll be one of the healthiest people you know. And I think that's what you just described, Jim.
SPEAKER_01:I hear a lot of a lot of people tell me that, and you can see I don't know.
SPEAKER_00:I see it's working with you. I see it's working with you. Speaking on the food thing, we got to talk while you were on your travels, uh, screw worms not going away. It looks to be getting worse, not better. No more talk of the border opening, and we need to be talking about how we're gonna control or what our measures are when it gets here, if it's not here already. Maybe we'll get some comments below. Someone will say, you know, you're starting trouble. But uh, Jim, it's a matter of if not when.
SPEAKER_01:I would tell you, if you don't reopen the border relatively soon, the story of this year is going to be if you think meat prices are high now, you haven't seen anything yet. By the about the middle of the year, you're gonna have a significant increase in the prices again. And that's when Trump, the president Trump, will again be frustrated. But maybe by that time he'll understand that it takes at least two years for the cattle cycle to turn around from an inventory perspective. Now we can get some more beef coming in from Brazil, and you know, China kind of took action to limit the amount of uh meat coming into their country, especially beef, and that's affected Australia, Brazil, et cetera. That means some potential more meat coming into the United States, but it doesn't make up for all those animals that we used to get coming in, Tommy, from Mexico. So, as far as the screw worm, yeah, we're we're done with picking a month of when the border will reopen. We're down to what conditions will it take in order for USDA to announce a reopening of the border. So they're gonna be very careful and they should be careful before they reopen the border. And even when they do, it's gonna be a phased-in reopening and it's gonna go a lot slower than most people think. So, from a market perspective, we're gonna have a relatively firm cattle market in in the months ahead, at least for six months.
SPEAKER_00:Okay, I threw this last one in there. I saw this tweet before when I was getting on a play in O'Hare Airport, kind of made me giggle. By the way, well, let me read it to you for those listening on Spotify and Apple. There are more people at Soldier Field for the Bears Packers playoff game than the entire population of Greenland thought. So I got a chart, not a chart, a map of Greenland. It's a massive uh piece of land. I don't know how many acres or hectares. I can Google that while you're talking. I will do that. Full disclosure, folks. I'm embarrassed to tell you this. I'm an old man. I went to bed at halftime. I had no clue what happened the second half. I had a bunch of texts from various Vikings fans who I don't know if they hate the Packers or the Bears more.
SPEAKER_01:They hate the Packers more.
SPEAKER_00:I know, I know, and hell of a comeback hate to be.
SPEAKER_01:They were 18-point deficit, by the way, and they came back. Never give in never give in. I learned with the Bears. They're that I don't know why it is. They come back like that. So you sooner or later you lose a game like that, but they're a fun team to watch. On your quote perspective, yes, the population is spot on, but it's what's under that ground, Tommy, that's important in Greenland, the the precious minerals, but it's also where it's at. Look at the strategic area, it's called the Northwest Passage, and this is why China and Russia, ever since we've had the melting of the Arctic ice, this this is this whole Arctic region is is elevated in an importance, and Trump knows that. Will we buy Greenland? I doubt it. I think that there's currently a 1951 uh US Denmark agreement that has Greenland in it, by the way, that I think would give the U.S. most of what they want. Security aspects to go in at a certain time. But and Greenland wants to be free of Denmark anyway. So I think they would be more willing to talk about a possible deal, not purchase, of their country. But I'm not going to underestimate the strategic importance from a foreign policy perspective. I think Trump is correct that uh we need safeguards to watch so those uh nuclear submarines of China and uh and Russia don't get too unfair advantage of watching our country that way. So it's an important area. And Trump, one way or the another, will eventually get what he wants for the protection in a national uh uh security basis.
SPEAKER_00:And as Joe Rogan has his young Jamie who looks up facts, they always say, Jamie, pull that up on the screen. Jamie, look that up. Well, Tommy here looked it up. Let's talk in acres because I think that's what our crowd would understand best. Greenland is officially, I'm gonna ask you, uh it's okay, wrong answers only, please. How many million acres do you think Greenland is? I have no idea, honestly. 535 million acres. That's how big Greenland is. That's that's more than the corn, beans, meat. I mean, that is massive land, but to keep in perspective, 80 of that is ice. So 80 Greenland's ice, 535 million acres. Folks, that's a big chunk of land.
SPEAKER_01:It is, but again, it's the location where it's at and from a nuclear submarine issue, and the you just have to be protected in that way. And I think that we will eventually, and that's what Trump says brought. Remember, he even talked about Greenland during Trump 1.0.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, he took his own private plane there. Remember, in between, I remember his son said we just touched down in Greenland. This was before the last election when he wasn't president. Yeah, yeah, wild tanks.
SPEAKER_01:That's where we're at on that. We've got a lot of foreign policy issues in the hopper right now, and it's not gonna go away. I have to cover it almost non-stop because of it can flare into the commodity uh prices. As I said earlier in the show, Tommy, if you go back into putting sanctions on on people who purchase uh Russian oil, that includes China. And if that occurs, we're right back into their they'll pull back on the purchases of U.S. farm commodities. I'm not predicting that, I'm just saying that's a that's a that's a possibility. But let's uh end it as we always do try to, at least on a high note. Tomorrow's report, Monday's 11 o'clock a.m. Central Time report from USDA is gonna determine uh the baseline for corn, uh soybeans, and to a degree wheat, not only from the uh final size of the 2025 crop, but we're gonna look at demand and have a better way to project uh the demand for the year ahead, and it'll help determine the acreage competition to a degree. That's how important this report is. So watch us next week. We'll have the implications of the reports.
SPEAKER_00:Sounds good. Okay, Jim, thank you so much. You've been watching Weiss Meyer's Perspectives here on the Ag Bowl Podcast. Jim, I'm glad we got this together. You've been traveling like a madman. Real quick, where are you going uh this week and next week?
SPEAKER_01:Monomie, Wisconsin, to a uh crop insurance meeting, armed services. I know Mark uh Bushman there. And it's hard to get to Menominee from Minneapolis Airport. In fact, rather than rent a car, I may just take an Uber because by the price, by the time you rent a car nowadays, it's almost uh still cheaper to you know get an Uber. But I've been there before, it's a good group, and that gives me the ground truth, Tommy. It it's where I get ideas uh from farmers and uh grain producers and livestock producers. And I know you get the same and you get feedback one way or the other on some of the and I can see the growing number of viewers and listeners to our podcast, and that's always good to know. And from that, we're hitting the issues. And I always tell them if we're not covering an issue that you think we should, let us know. And you listeners out there, do the same, just email, email or whatever, and we'll look into the situation.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. Sounds good. I'll see you next week, my friend.
SPEAKER_01:See ya.
