AG Bull
Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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AG Bull
Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Aid Or Trade
We break down fresh farm aid proposals from both parties, the real stakes of year‑round E15, and how RFS and 45Z could reset corn and soy demand. We also unpack WASDE surprises, cattle volatility, Brazil’s beef push, and a Canada–China canola thaw.
• GOP plan to expand Farmer Bridge Assistance and include prevent plant acres
• Democrat framework tying farm and family relief with broader eligibility
• Specialty crop and sugar sector pain and proposed targeted support
• Higher USDA loan limits to ease access to credit
• SCOTUS timing on tariff authority and market risk
• China–Canada trade swap and canola tariff cuts
• WASDE recap: harvested acres, carryout, and export gaps
• Year‑round E15 odds and ethanol demand implications
• RFS 2026–27 signals and RIN sourcing debate
• USMCA leverage, likely extension, and North American interdependence
• Brazil maxes U.S. beef quota amid strong demand
• Cattle selloff drivers and screw worm rumor reality check
• Silver’s surge as a lesson in leverage and emotion
Like and subscribe. Go to www.agbull.com for Jim’s articles and our premium content. Come see us at Booth 2312, CatalCon 2026, Nashville, February 3rd through 5th
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Thank you, Tommy G
Happy Friday, everyone. Tom Grossafi, AgBull Media, AgBOL Trading. You're listening to the AgBull Podcast. Well, it's been a heck of a week. We've had a lot of breaking news. President Trump's president. Things move really, really fast. And with that, I want to give you a little update where I'll be. I'm currently in Nashville at Nesvik Trading Group. And this weekend, we'll be attending the ADM conference. This weekend we'll be in Nashville attending the ADM broker conference, Ag Bull Media, website, AgBull.com. If you're down here, hit me up. And then wait, there's more in two weeks. We're going to go to CatalCon. Come see us at Booth 2312, CatalCon 2026, Nashville, February 3rd through 5th. If you're coming to Catalcon, hit us up on the website. Speaking of the website, a lot of content we produce now is premium content.$25 a month,$250 annually. Love to have you on board. We're producing about a video every day, and we have several more contributors. And we just hired a new farm broadcaster to start a morning show. So look for that. But you didn't come here to hear all that. You came here to see the one and only Mr. Jim Weissmeyer. And we're going to bring him in the show. Give him a warm welcome.
SPEAKER_01:And it was standing room only there. It was a good good meeting in Menominee, Wisconsin. Had a good time there. And I'll maybe give you more perspective on that as the podcast goes on. And as you said, we have some breaking news, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00:You want the breaking news? I'll give you breaking news. Hold on. We got a video for that. Let me find it. And survey says breaking news, breaking news. I'll do the vocals.
SPEAKER_01:And the breaking news is what is on our first topic we want to discuss anyway. It's the Republican and USDA version of Farmer Aid. Now you'll recall it's the you know Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. And we well know the parameters of that.$11 billion for row crops,$1 billion for specialty crops. The$11 billion is going to be paid by February the 28th. But the new development just came out about now, about 45 minutes ago, from the from Capitol Hill. Yeah, John Bolzman, Senate Ag Committee Chairman, Republican from Arkansas, and Holvin, appropriations uh leader in North Dakota, John Holvin, Republican North Dakota, put out a release saying the senators they have a new proposal that'll provide additional targeted relief to farmers by building upon that USDA farmer bridge assistance program. Now let's go through some of the proposals that they want in their package, which will be put together and added, hopefully added on to a must-pass bill by the end of this month, Tommy. One is expanded coverage for the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. What does that mean? Additional funds to cover a greater share of producer losses. And this one includes acres that were prevented from being planted as eligible acres under the FBA program. You heard that right, because the current FBA program does not uh include prevent plant acres. And there they want to what they call align payment limitations with improvements in the one big beautiful bill. Not quite sure what they mean by that. Maybe we'll get an increase in the payment cap. I'll have to check on that. Additional assistance for losses that exceed national averages. Now, I don't know whether this will be by state or region. And then they also say providing separate funds for producers forced to sell at depressed prices are experienced higher cost of production. They're going to get further targeted aid uh while allowing the FBA and expanded FBA funds to reach farmers immediately. Now that that may I'll give you an example, soybeans. I was at American Soybean Association conference, leadership conference a week ago in Florida, and they thought that USDA was too low on their per payment rate, just shy of$31, if I recall. And they mentioned a number of soybean producers were forced to sell before that$1.50 rally. Remember that late in the year last year, Tommy? Well, this would this language would take that into consideration in my judgment. Then another one, expanded support for specialty crop producers. And because USDA's uh program only allocates$1 billion, and trust me, I have talked with many specialty crop producers, and that's not near enough. They don't put any funding levels in the Senate bill yet. And another one, assistance for sugar beet and cane growers. They need relief. I talked to more than a few sugar beet producers the last two weeks in Minnesota and in Wisconsin, and I'm telling you, they're hurting for a multitude of reasons. Uh buildup of stocks, tier two, a big increase in tier two, uh high tier, we call it, uh uh imports. They've been hit with uh lower consumption of sugar with GLP1, you know, that's the weight reduction shot and pill. And they've been hit by people in the Trump administration, like RFK Jr., HHS secretary, uh, who in the dietary guidelines come after sugar consumption. So they're hurting, and it looks like Holvin, he's from North Dakota, he made sure that he's got some provisions for sugar beet and cane growers. And I'm gonna be down at the sugarcane league conference in Baton Rouge, Louisiana in the next week or so. So look for me there. And the last one increased farm ownership and operating loan limits. So they're gonna they're gonna increase the maximum. That'll increase the loan limits to improve uh access to credit that meets current producer demand. So hopefully they can get this through because that'll be an additional shot in the arm to get cash flow as a real bridge. To me, this is a bridge with guardrails on it. The FBA program to me is just a bridge. But this one, if you lay it layer over it, this has some guardrails on it to make sure that you get to the other side, meaning the end of this year where some Title I uh ARC and PLC payments will kick in, Tommy. So we'll have to assess the the percentage odds of this passing. But boy, I think there's bipartisan support at the need for additional uh uh assistance. I know there are farmers out there in the audience that say, but you know, is this ever going to end? Will we want trade, not aid? Of course, everybody wants trade, not aid, but when the market's not giving it to you, you have to have support for this uh ag sector. And there are regions of the country that need additional support, they don't have the black earth that where I come from, Illinois, and they don't have the tight basis, narrow basis that some uh other other producers have. And so I I think the need is there, and I I my bias is I think that uh Congress will uh uh uh uh uh approve this. And but we have a Democrat uh uh plan too, Tommy. On on this hold on, hold on.
SPEAKER_00:Well, Jim, that was a heck of a show, all those things you just listed. But wait, there's more. You mean that was only talking point number one. That's when you when you were saying all that stuff, I was thinking, am I forgetting to click or do something?
SPEAKER_01:Or no, no, that this press release just came out, you know, right before we went is that your phone ringing on the show, and I I took it off. I thought I had it down. That's a no number.
SPEAKER_00:Kids these days with their phone.
SPEAKER_01:I'm telling you, I'm telling you.
SPEAKER_00:And I should number two, Mr. Weesmeyer. I'll keep you if you got to get that. I'll uh no.
SPEAKER_01:The Democrats surprised the Republicans on the ad committees by earlier this week coming out with their package. I think they caught the, and that's why I think you saw that release just come out an hour ago now from the Republicans on the committee, because I think they were fooled. Angie Craig is the ranking member, House Ag Committee ranking member, Democrat from Minnesota. Now, on January the 15th, she unveiled what she they call the framework for the Farm and Family Relief Act. Act. Okay. Now it's nearly$60 billion in farm and family, not just farmer aid. Okay. That's that's$60 billion. Now with a B. Yeah, with a B. With the Pharma Relief, it's around$29 billion. And then you have the uh family relief about$28 billion. Now, the family relief is they would delay for four years the planned shift of SNAP benefit costs to states, and for two years a related increase in administrative cost sharing. I don't think, I don't see the Republicans going along with that. And then for the farmer relief, it's$29 billion. They said, unlike the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program, the democratic framework, they said, would broaden eligibility to producers left out of prior aid, including foresters, specialty crop growers, and sugar beet producers. Now, again, listen, they're they're signaling sugar beet producers here. And payments would also cover prevented planting acres that were excluded under the FBA program. So, and that there's other things in their package, but I think it was smart politics on the part of the Democrats. They're out there, and they even used uh the American Farm Bureau Federation estimate uh estimate last fall that U.S. farmers have accumulated more than$50 billion in losses over the past three years. So usually a Democrat lawmaker will mention National Farmers Union, not Farm Bureau. So I think it was a creative way of getting some cost estimates out there using a Republican tilted group called Farm Bureau. So let's let's lock the first two items together, Tommy. Okay, the push is there for additional farmer assistance, and frankly, it's needed. I I don't even have to talk to producers anymore. I've had so many conversations that this'll if if this comes about, this will be much needed cash flow uh for planning time to pay to pay down debts, etc. So it couldn't come at a at a better time.
SPEAKER_00:Jim, I uh go ahead and look at your phone. I'm gonna go full screen on me. I just texted you something, and I I don't know if that's in the show or not, and that was texted to me from a client. I don't know if they're thinking about that or that is happening. You go ahead and read that and digest it. We could talk about it or don't have to talk about it. I definitely don't want to say things that aren't true or you know, there's enough bad information out there. I will move to the third headline while you're looking at that text they sent you and digesting that, and it's uh still no SCOTUS ruling on IEEA. You got to help me with I E E P A. So many acronyms.
SPEAKER_01:Well, that's well that that's just the court that ruled against the Trump tariffs. Uh I'm sorry, that's the that's the the avenue that Trump used to make his uh trade policy, and that's being challenged. Okay. Now, we've had two false moves by the Supreme Court that we thought that they might be announcing a ruling on Trump's trade policy, whether or not it's constitution, constitutional or not. That that's that's that's what this is all about. Now, I've just been informed that next week we have another potential ruling date for an opinion, January the 20th. So we'll do this all over again on the 20th, uh that Tuesday, I guess. Yep. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Just full note, everyone, we are closed. A lot of the markets are closed. We may open electronically on some full on things, but as we talk about cattle and other markets, I imagine the electronic markets, the SP and stuff like that and oil will open up and we can get those direct hours at the CME Group.com if you need uh Martin Luther King Day holidays. But in general, it's a it's a holiday where banks are closed, a lot of America's closed. But in the world of 24-hour trading, it's only a holiday in America. So if you say, why the heck is the CME group opening? Well, there's 300 and some million Americans, but there's 8 billion people in the world, and risk needs to be managed. So with that, you know, Tuesday's going to come around real quick because we had big moving cattle. We got this news out of uh DC, and we're moving at the speed of light here with uh President Trump as present. So we'll keep an eye on that. That's SCOTUS. Next thing, this was interesting today. A little good news out of China. Yeah, for Canada, that is. Did I see China? Yeah, China and Canada and Canada. Only I had a picture of what I was trying to say. I think you do. All right, what happened? Give it to us.
SPEAKER_01:Well, what happened is they worked a trade deal in which they're gonna free up uh the sub well, Canada is gonna allow more um Chinese electric vehicles into Canada, and China is going to reduce the tariff on Canadian canola. So it's it's a win-win. Now, initially we thought, oh my goodness, what's President Trump going to say about this? Because he likes to slap Canada every once in a while, usually relative to the US-Mexico-Canada agreement. But he just came out with a statement saying, good on Canada. Whenever you can reach a deal with uh Canada, go ahead. So he just basically said job well done on the part of Canada's prime minister. So it's good for Canadian canola for for potential sales. It shows that there's a probably truce, much like between the US and China right now, there's a truce that doesn't mean open-ended trade, but it it looks like Canada now is reopening some previously closed trade with Canada. And I guess that's good overall. I like to have a lot of Canadian friends.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, absolutely. We're all in this together, my friend. And your buddy, our buddy, Mr. Sean Haney.
SPEAKER_01:Yes, Canada.
SPEAKER_00:Sean has a lot to add about this. So if you need color on that, go to his website, Real Agriculture. And did you guys talk about it on the uh where were you on the well?
SPEAKER_01:He had to leave early, but so I don't think we got it too. But I text him all the time, and yeah, he says it's oh he teases you about that.
SPEAKER_00:He said if you ever get a rapid fire text from Weesmeyer, watch out, your phone will blow up. Speaking of rapid fire, okay, bombs dropped by the USDA on Monday. USDA cropslashwashe report. I'll add a little color to it, folks. I know it bummed you out, but for the week, beans are about unchanged, wheat's up a little. Corn had a nice rally today, and the cash corn markets actually improved. So when corn broke 20, 25 cents, you know, for the end user, the elevators to get that grain out of your hand, they have to make the cash market a little better. So for the week, a lot of you out there, I know it stunk, but cash corn's down about 10 to 15 cents, beans unchanged, wheat unchanged. We will get through this. And with some of this good news coming out of Washington that Jim's talking about with E15 or all these other things, or Canada getting able to sell canola again, grain's gonna flow. I know you don't want to hear this, and I know you don't want those direct government payments, you want trade, but you may get both. You may get real good demand, government payments, we're gonna be okay. I promise you, my friends.
SPEAKER_01:All right. Well, look at corn. We've got we still have record exports, and we we're really increasing corn utilization relative to the ethanol market, but it seems like a month ago that USDA came out with these crop uh production. What did they say, Jim?
SPEAKER_00:And it get put us put your spin on it.
SPEAKER_01:On USDA, well, I think it's interesting that the farm media who tried to kill the crop better than an agronomist. If you had to want ever want to kill a corn crop, just call an agronomist every year. I mean, I learned that as a market reporter a long time ago. But over the past year, we've had the farm media just disease after the disease, and they were caught flat-footed. They forgot about harvested acres, and that that was your key because harvested acres for corn, I'm talking, uh, went up significantly. Now, I know farmers are upset, and they usually throw uh uh uh darts at uh at USDA's NAS on that. But uh the and there are some analysts I've seen on the social media stuff who say, oh, I think it's because there weren't enough people at NAS. That's Baldur. NASA had a 73,000 survey for this annual crop summary, and I and they had um a participation rate, I think, of a little over 40 percent. Yeah, down from 46 percent, but still relatively uh high when you look at response or the lack of response rates to a number of other economic reports from Washington. Bottom line is a big crop got bigger. You had your states outside of the I states increased production, and you we had a relatively open harvest season and much a lot lower uh failed acreage or prevent plant acres this year, and so harvested acres uh as a percent of planted went up. Now, NASA has been interviewed, frankly, by the same people who hype the disease problems, but and and what they're saying now, NASS officials of Heinig, Hainig is his name, good guy. He's saying, look, they'll look at their procedures, and and if they have to change something, they will. But again, I don't think it was a lack of USDA personnel. Whenever you do a 73,000 survey, that's that's bona fide uh information, that's primary information. And I don't think individual analysts out there uh take a 73,000 survey, do you? So it is what it is. Carryover is going up. In the case of soybeans, they increased harvested acres a little bit. They didn't change the yield on soybeans, but uh a little bad news uh I think on soybeans is I think USDA is still too low on soybean exports. So I think what We've got a carryover now for soybeans of I think 350 million bushels. That's that's a lot, but I think it's gonna go to 400 or or more. So what I just said is that's gonna cap rallies. We're gonna have rallies, we're gonna have planning time rallies where we have the competition for acres, we're gonna have to uh increase the price of soybeans to keep it more honest with corn because it's favoring corn right now. And as you said, on the corn side, we have a good story to tell. We've got record corn exports and increased utilization of E15. And the thing that you sent me when I looked at it, do you want to talk about that? We got a deal on year-round E-15 in DC. Well, that means if if this is true, it must say who it's from, but I think there is high odds, high odds. Uh, nothing's 100% in Washington, nothing. But there are high odds that as part of this end of year end of January package, of which we're going to get probably more farmer aid, we'll also have an amendment in there that codifies Tommy year-round E-15. That is what the industry has wanted. And it's far better than President Trump putting on an executive order for year-round E-15, because that can always change with another president or another year, etc. Because, and then this says if we get the deal, we'll use 2.4 billion more bushels of corn a year. Now I've got to check that number out. I don't know. That seems a little high to me. Yeah, corn's been working with the oil industry and ethanol at the highest levels and finally came to an agreement. I agree with that. And it's anticipated it will put in the continuing budget resolution. That's absolutely correct. Uh, I I just I have to figure out the 2.4 billion bushels.
SPEAKER_00:But full disclosure, this is just something we were texted by someone that was sent this. This was sent to all growers from uh a state's corn group. This is not confirmed, but yeah, it's brewing. Jim, what I'm trying to tell people is there's a lot of stuff brewing. There's a lot of stuff brewing to use our own corn and soybeans and everything else, biofuels. We got some stuff brewing.
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely. We have to increase domestic utilization. And in the case of soybeans, we have said for weeks on this podcast, Tommy, we need the Treasury Department to release the details on how they're going to implement tax incentives, the 45Z program or sustainable aviation fuel. Now that's just not soybeans. We're going to see how corn's uh impacted. And that they're taking their sweet little time in getting those regulations out. But that could be the fourth or fifth gear for soybeans once we get those, because then the industry has a game plan of which they know how many tax credits they're going to get, etc. Now, when it comes to corn and and soybeans, biodiesel, renewable diesel, corn-based ethanol, we have the renewable fuel standard program. And I think we have a graphic because that got into the marketplace this week, because the graphic you have yes, yeah. Explain this to me. Okay, well, well, keep it as simple as possible. Now, Reuters put out a story uh a day or so ago that they talked to some of the people who've been meeting with the uh EPA ahead of EPA's official announcement on what is going to be the mandated uh levels for 2026 and 2027 for corn-based ethanol, uh biodiesel, renewable diesel, etc. Now, in the Reuter story, they said that that the international countries, other than Canada and Mexico, they already get a full REN for you know for the uh program. But it it was going to be where countries outside of Canada and Mexico was only going to get 50% rin. Well, the Reuters item said no, they pulled that back to 100%, one for one. Now, to me, that was bearish, but the market interpreted the coming out with the mandate, supposed to come out in early March, late February, early March, Tommy. And they just looked at the number of gallons of you know biodiesel and and you know, soybeans for for the for the gallon each, and that was the bullish component. But then we have Peter Navarro, who's a trade policy official for President Trump. He was he did he had an item in the Hill newspaper, and I think that's where the graphic's from. And you'll see where he still says, nope, the countries outside of Canon, Mexico is still gonna get 50%. What does that mean, Tommy? That means you'll utilize more domestic soybeans in the implementation of the renewable fuel standard, and so that's what that graphic means. So we're gonna have to see is Reuters correct or is Navarro correct? We'll have to wait until probably late in February to uh early March. But some pretty big mandated levels are coming for the soybean sector, and that'll be good news too, uh, as we go into planning time. So you can see some things building here that I think we're going to have policy-generated news that's going to increase at least the flat price for soybeans and corn and maybe the futures market as well. That's what that says.
SPEAKER_00:And this ties into the headline, or did you just cover all that now? The RFS confusion. That covers the headline. That's a rap sports fan. You're getting ahead of me. Very good. Trump negotiating tactics on USMCA review. This is a hot topic.
SPEAKER_01:Oh my goodness. And it's gonna linger. Uh, the reason why Trump was in Detroit, gave an economic speech, and while he was in Detroit, he said relative to Canada, we don't really need Canada trade. I think he's wrong there, but that's what he said. And he goes, uh, USMCA is far more important to Canada than it is the United States. Well, I think this is Trump negotiating and leverage because we're going to have a possible renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, USMCA, July 1 of this year. Now, they can do many different things. I think that it'll probably just be extended. If they want to eliminate it, it's still going to be in place for another 10 years, okay? But I think this is just one of many different negotiating tactics on the part of President Trump's administration going into these talks. I'll shout it from the mountaintops. We have a North American market. We get 85% of our potash from Canada. You think they're not important? They purchase a lot of our agricultural products. In the case of Mexico, they purchase a lot of U.S. corn and they purchase a lot of our pork products, especially hams. So it is important for all three. And ironically, the USMCA is really Trump's baby. Remember, he got rid of NAFTA, North America Free Trade Agreement, and replaced that during his first administration with USMCA. Bottom line on this, you're going to see a lot of fits and starts relative to all three countries negotiating as they go into the July 1 reform of the USMCA. But I think it's going to hold in the long run.
SPEAKER_00:Good. Investigation of FedsPow. This is that caught some people off guard.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, uh the uh judge, Department of Justice filed a case against Jerome J. Powell. Now, the consensus here, bipartisan, not just Democrats, but republic because anything Trump does, the Democrats will come out against it. Okay. But that's how the game's played. Yeah, that's how that's called politics. But more than a few named Republicans said, you know, that was overreached. The Trump administration should not be doing that. Even though the price, multi-billion dollar price of the uh uh the remodeling of the Federal Reserve build building leaves a lot of questions still uh remain to be answered. Now, so that's that. I think that that's uh gonna work itself out. I think that they they saw the the congressional reaction and some of the public reaction, and I think that they'll soft pedal it in the months ahead. Now, there's other updated news today on the Federal Reserve. You notice by May of this year that ends the chairmanship, not the governorship, the chairmanship of the current Fed chair, Jerome J. Powell. Now, Trump has said consistently that sometime this month, January, that he's gonna announce his nominee. Now, it's been up and down as far as it's been like a parlor game, Tommy, of who it might be. And there were two Kevins involved: National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, and the uh Fed governor, farmer, not former, he is Kevin Walsh. Now, Trump said today that Hassett should remain in his current White House job as National Economic Council director. So I think he's not going to be the Fed chairman. Now, Hassett does a great job in communicating on Fox News, Fox Business News, CNBC, on the Trump administration's economic policy, and Trump wants him to continue that. So I'm not saying it's going to be Kevin Walsh, but the one who is going to make the most significant suggestion for the Federal Reserve Chairman's job, I think, is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett. And I I think he's tilting towards Kevin Walsh. It could always be another another candidate, but I would put the odds now on Kevin Walsh. Yes.
SPEAKER_00:While you were talking, I was uh fast on my fingers here and I pulled up the poly market. And it may be a tiny bit hard for people to see. I will make it bigger. But uh here, folks, when Jim and I are talking about this, we're getting this off of these prediction markets, which brings us to the subject about that person who made that bet based on that leaked information out of Venezuela. We'll talk about that in a little bit, but let's go over these names real quick. This is what Mr. Wiesmeyer is talking about. Kevin Marsh, Kevin Hassett, Warsh, Warsh, Warsh, Warsh, W-A-R-S-H. Yes. I see like wash your hands. Okay, Kevin Hassett, Christopher Walker, Rick Ryder, Scott Lissent. Now that these are getting, you know, one, two percenters. So it looks like they got it down to three or four, correct?
SPEAKER_01:Yes, absolutely. And you mentioned the potential candidates. Yeah, what odds do they give?
SPEAKER_00:I I'm not I'm I'll I'll pop that back up. Yeah, full screen. Okay, so we got 50, call it 60 on Kevin, Kevin Hassett, 16, uh, Christopher Waller, 16.
SPEAKER_01:And then uh that was before today, then.
SPEAKER_00:So they yeah, you could look at the top chart, Jim. I don't know if you could see what I'm looking at, but the top chart here, these these things trade as fast as the markets. They go up, they go down. One person's really bid today, and one person lost their bid. So interesting, folks. I can't explain to you how much these prediction markets are affecting things. It's it's like the ultimate analyst. Like an analyst says, I think this is gonna happen. And the prediction markets like put your money where your mouth is, we'll let you bet on it. And now the CFTC and other people, FanDuel is now partnered with the CME group. This is real. Now, you could still get in trouble for trading inside information on this. You want to add any color to that?
SPEAKER_01:Well, all I know is I'll say more positive on this approach because when it comes to guessing, if you will, election races by state or national or say they have been fairly accurate. So that's why an increasing number of people are looking at these to judge whether or not because some of these state polls and elections are just all over the map, but they have proven very on-the-spot accurate over the last year or so. So I have to look at them now because it's a pretty good barometer of the tone of who may min it win an election, either in the House of Representatives, the Senate, or president.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and I'll just add color that it's 2026, 1996. The world's changing. If you don't want to change with it, it's going to uh change right around you. Let's move on. Brazil quickly fills U.S. beef quota. Let's talk beef, Jim.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, they're already at their quota. And if you recall in past podcast, we said they were already purchasing this and keeping it in warehouses, getting ready for our quota to increase. And it did, it's already filled up. Now they can they have to pay, I think, a little over 24% tariffs. I'd have to go back and check. But in other words, to to exceed the quota. And but Brazil so far in 2026 are really increasing their amount of uh of uh beef coming into the U.S. market because, as we know, the demand is there. So that's the bottom line on that. Brazil quickly used up their you know their their beef quota for the U.S. And they're already paying above the the tariff above that quota in order to bring additional beef in. That shows you the demand for for for their product, mainly, by the way, hamburger.
SPEAKER_00:I just had a a text from a congressman in North Dakota, text me the exact same news our other friend sent. So a congressman, he'll go unnamed, just texted uh me this. He the North Dakota Corn Exec uh sent this text out to a lot of folks. And so the first thing we talked about briefing y'all again, E15 in Washington, DC. We will use 2.4 billion more bushels of corn a year. We've been working. That is kind of confirmed. It's getting real close, but we don't want to give you soggy information. Talk about I hear this term all the time on CNBC and other channels, taco. And for for the longest time, I didn't know what they're talking about. Taco, tell us about it, my friend.
SPEAKER_01:Well, it stands for and Trump doesn't like it, so let's hope they don't come at us. It's it's just we're just explaining here, White House. Trump always chickens out. That's what it means, taco. Now, he doesn't always chicken out. Talk to Iran about that, by the way. However, there's a couple things this week. You'll recall early in the week, and I had to write about it because he said it. Trump said anyone doing business with Iran would be impacted by 25% tariffs. Remember that one, Tommy? Trump is, but now Trump is likely not going to follow through because China is a big uh customer of Iranian oil and other products. And I don't think they want to get involved in in uh tit for tat again in trade retaliation with China. This is Trump talking out loud sometimes. And another thing happened today where Trump said at a White House briefing, quote, I may put a tariff on countries if they don't go along with Greenland, what the U.S. wants, because we need Greenland for national security. He said that during a White House event. Now, again, that's Trump jaw boning, uh, leveraging, and things like that. I think eventually we will work a deal out with both Denmark and Greenland for increased national security because Trump legitimately so is saying that, you know, Greenland can't support if Russia or China wants to come in and take over the island, if you will. And and Trump knows that that's the Northwest pack uh passage now, especially since the Arctic is melting, it's allowed more nuclear submarines on the part of China and Russia to come and and and and survey what's going on in that area. Bottom line, Trump is not giving up on Greenland. I think we'll eventually get a much increased uh defense uh uh agreement. But another one where where Trump says things when he talks out loud is you'll recall earlier this week he said he wants a 10% cap on interest rates on credit cards. Well, that takes legislation. And with the banker lobby, he's not gonna get it. And even House Speaker Ron Johnson, uh Johnson, I'm sorry, from from Louisiana, Mike Johnson, said, you know, when when Trump says things, sometimes he's just talking out loud. It won't happen because of the banker lobby. Also, the credit card companies are saying, look, the reason we can offer credit cards to lower income people is because we have variable interest rates that are not capped. And and even more well-to-do people, they wouldn't get the benefits that they get from credit cards if these you know credit card companies like MasterCard, these uh Del uh the American Express, I use American Express a lot. They wouldn't offer the incentives that they do. So it's more of a populist. Uh in the past, Bernie Sanders and and Elizabeth Warren has has pushed this. So this is one of the oddities that President Trump comes up with sometimes with strange bedfellows. Okay. He gets into the camp of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, but bottom line, this is another one where Trump may propose it. It's not gonna happen.
SPEAKER_00:Well, that's what we have for show notes. I want to talk about a few other things today with you, Mr. Weesmeyer. A very, very, very emotional day in the cattle market. Cattle market's on an incredible bull run. We made record highs, had that vicious sell-off. We're real close to record highs, and we had a screw worm rumor today. Now, I wasn't, I didn't like the way maybe it was handled, but I'll let you give a little more color on it. Uh, this young man, tell us more.
SPEAKER_01:Well, it the the rum, I heard several rumors, and when I we were just going on agri-talk is when they hit what the feeders were down limit at one time.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, they uh yeah, they they locked limit for a little bit. They did not set a limit and live cat owned feeders came off limit.
SPEAKER_01:Well, there were all sorts of rumors. The one was that was incorrect. I've not been able to confirm it whatsoever. You know, in fact, APHIS has said no, there's no screw worm incident in New Mexico, the state of New Mexico. So that was a false report. Okay. I think where people were reading too much into it is the Texas Ag Commissioner, Sid Miller, put out a couple of releases this week in which he said there was, and he is accurate there, there's been additional cases of screw worms. In in uh in Mexico and one near the the on the state that borders Texas. That doesn't mean it came in to the U.S. That's why you test, okay? And but he said some things on I think RFP TV. Yeah, that boy, I'm really paraphrasing here. Well, I don't have the sound quote.
SPEAKER_00:Let's just say he said some things.
SPEAKER_01:He said some things that that maybe he should have been more judicious in in those remarks because it was market sensitive. So I think that USDA and the Trump administration has taken the cautious action that they should. And whenever we have that border reopened, and it'll eventually be real reopened, as we said a couple podcasts ago, when it does reopen, they're going to have a series of tests, Tommy, as the Mexican cattle have to go through three, if not four, separate tests to see whether or not uh they're either positive or negative for the new world screw worm. That's about as cautious as you can possibly get. So whenever we do have a reopening of the border, uh you're not going to see a lot of Mexican cattle come across right away. And by design, they're going to be very cautious in the multiple testing to make sure those cattle crossing the border uh are negative to uh uh screwworm. And by that time, we'll also have uh the implementation of those flies, uh, the rather large increase in both Mexico and the United States and Texas to ward off this horrible situation. So, uh but we uh there there were other reasons why I think the cattle sold off, and you're better at this than I am. But as an old market reporter, it wasn't due to one headline event, so much as a confluence of uh factor technical exhaustion after a big rally. You have to admit we had a big rally again.
SPEAKER_00:Yes, we did, sir.
SPEAKER_01:We we had weak confirmation from the cash and box beef markets, we had mixed kill activity, and there's lingering trade policy uncertainty. That brings the Mexico situation. All that has kept traders cautious, especially as we go into a holiday weekend because they don't want to be caught flat-footed. Remember the Mad Cow disease happened December 23rd when it came across, and it caught a lot of people unaware. I'm not predicting we're gonna get any surprises, but it shows you the cautiousness on the part, I think legitimate cautiousness on the part of livestock traders to say, okay, I'm gonna come back Tuesday and see the lay of the land, and we we're probably gonna be right back to uptrending markets and the cattle market because we're not rebuilding the herd that that significantly. And but we're gonna check some of these uh reports out to to to see if there's any any truth whatsoever in them. But you've had about eight, eight or so, maybe eleven cases of uh screw worm in Mexico, new cases since uh December 30th. Now, Sid Miller did say that, but again, they caught him. And AFUS and others are saying there's been no confirmation of any NWS incident in New Mexico or any other state. So we're gonna double check that, triple check it on Tuesday once markets open again.
SPEAKER_00:If there's any breaking news over the weekend, of course, uh Jim will be putting out articles. That's folks, you got to get signed up for Jim's newsletter. It's right here, it's going across Ticker, We Spire at Gmail, and of course, you can catch all those articles on the Ag Bull website. Go to www.agbull.com. As fast as Jim puts them out, we post them on the website. Those are free and open to the public. And of course, we ask you to uh like and subscribe. With that, I I want to talk a couple other things. I want the market and me to talk. I had a couple almost sleepless nights, but this silver market is bigger than almost anything I've ever seen. I just want to educate you all. When I see nice graphics during the week, I save them and I want to post them. Let's educate ourselves on where the world's top silver producers are. I said a few weeks ago, Jim, did you know that a lot of silver comes from Mexico? Of course, you being the wise sage that you are, you said you did. And I said enough about me. Let's talk about me. Mr. Weesmeyer knew that. I didn't, but this is do your history, do do your facting, ask chat GPT or go to X and X and ask Grock, where does silver come from? This, that. But the bottom line is a good gap. That is a good crap. Yeah, and Lindsay popped that one up. Silver's out of control. And I let me give you Tommy G's perspective perspectives. If you bought one silver contract, we're having seven and eight dollar ranges. And what that means is if you bought one silver at the low and sold at the high, you could make$40,000 in a day. Now let's do the risk disclaimer and what compliance wants to hear. If you buy one silver at the high and sell at the low, you could lose$40,000 in a day. And the CME group can't raise margins fast enough. Now, over during the week, China raised some uh limits on different trading products because people get over-leveraged and they get they people get in their mind, well, we've never been here and we've never went this high, so we're too high, and they sell it, and there's all these leverage products, ETFs, et cetera, and they get themselves in a pickle. We're we're our own worst uh enemy. But full disclosure, when Trump originally announced the tariffs, I was trading that night, I was trading$27 silver. This week I traded$83 silver. Wow. If corn went from$2.70 to$8.30, you'd hear about it. But there's way more silver in the world than there is corn. And silver has now eclipsed the value. If you add up all the silver in the world, it's worth more than NVIDIA. And the only asset class worth more than silver is now gold. So the number one asset class in the world right now, by value, as a group, that's not per country, is gold, and then silver, then NVIDIA. So it just fascinating stuff.
SPEAKER_01:And one of the reasons for but like this is good, this is called, like in market psychology, an emotional market, likely uh exaggerated highs. You also have exaggerated lows and in the big swings, but a number of countries, China included and central banks, have bought a lot of gold and probably silver, because as they reduced their exposure in the US bond market, they had a place to go to put some money, Tommy. So I think this is probably another fundamental reason, at least I don't think it justifies all the exaggerated prices that we're seeing, but inflation expectations and all that. And you know, traders, once you get on a fast moving market, the train, it just accelerates, and that's what we have seen in the metals market.
SPEAKER_00:Yep. Last chart of the day, I'm gonna post it. You could talk about it, and then you're gonna leave us optimistic because that's what you do. I this was also on Twitter during the week. I see things, and if someone, if someone old someone who didn't understand markets or politics, said, What in the hell's going on?
SPEAKER_01:That's the spheres of influence in the world that we're dividing the world up between the U.S. Western hemisphere, and this is where the Monroe doctrine comes in relative to Venezuela moves, and Trump is not going to back away from Venezuela. I've had that question at some of my speeches. I said, No, it's different than how the U.S. has pulled back in the Mideast. Yeah, uh, these are all the geopolitical strategies and the chess playing that's going on right now. And you're seeing uh Putin wants to re-establish the old USSR, that's his primary uh issue relative to Ukraine, and China, as we well know, is the Indo-Pacific area where their sphere of uh of influence is is paramount and and getting increasingly so. Now, I don't like when a situation goes like this because history usually shows you that it'll lead to uh some major conflicts down the road. I hope I'm wrong there, but we're dividing up the world again. That's that's that's what that is.
SPEAKER_00:And if a picture is worth a thousand worlds words, yeah, that's Donald Trump's, Mr. Putin's, and G G Pink.
SPEAKER_01:And yeah, G Jinping's.
SPEAKER_00:Thank you. All right, Mr. Weissmeyer, this is where you get to shine and just be you. You always leave us optimistic. I don't think you're making it up. I do truly believe you're an optimistic person. You love America, you love agriculture. Finish us up strong so I can go to this ADM conference here in Nashville. And once again, thank you for putting all the work and time you do into uh educating agriculture and just getting normal folks like us up to date in DC. You're doing the heavy lifting, brother. Take it to the end.
SPEAKER_01:Well, it's protein. The the world still needs protein and they're gonna get it. So that's optimism number one. Number two is yeah, we're in a down cycle here, not cattle, not hogs. Dairy is volatile, but in the crops, yeah, we're in a down cycle. Now, normally when you have two to three years of a down cycle, which we've had, I don't know what it is, but it usually comes out. And I think that's what we're beginning to see the initial uh reasons that we're going to come out at the end of this uh negative uh uh road here, bridge, if you will, by the end of this year, through a combination of cash flow aid in the part of the administration's program that we've said, the$12 billion former bridge assistance program. Then, if we have a bipartisan push for additional, maybe$15 billion or so of additional aid, then you can start penciling out to where more of the farmers' uh losses the last few years are dealt with. So then we let the market fundamentals uh take on more importance. That's where domestic utilization that we talked about during this program relative to the renewable fuel stove uh program, standard program, relative to the E15 year-round, if we get that, which I think this is the time to do it, we're gonna see significantly increased corn demand. So that's again cutting into that carryover. So if you have declining carryover, that means higher prices. And in the case of soybeans, once we get the uh mandated levels officially announced by early March, and we get by that time, hopefully, we will have the details of the 45Z program, sustainable aviation fuel, then we let the domestic utilization start increasing. And in the case of soybeans, it will be value-added commodities. We won't have to rely so much on the flat soybeans, on the raw soybeans to be exported. We're going to be using meal more soybean oil relative to the sustainable aviation fuel program. There's your avenue between now and the end of this year, we could have a good year.
SPEAKER_00:I love it. Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer, Weiesmeyer's Perspectives only here on the Eggbowl Podcast. Jim, it is a pleasure to work with you. I'll see you next week, my friend. See you next week.
