Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Silver Fell Down The Staircase While The Dollar Took The Elevator

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Futures and options trading involves risk and is not suited for everyone.

We unpack how year-round E15, RFS mandates, and the pending 45Z rules could finally tilt U.S. agriculture toward stronger domestic demand, while a hawkish-leaning Fed pick and a surging dollar ripple through grains, metals, and exports. We also track USMCA maneuvering, right-to-repair momentum, and a practical path to manage risk into spring.

• Year-round E15 path in Congress and what it means for corn demand
• Treasury’s 45Z guidance prospects and crush-for-oil economics
• FOMC hold, Kevin Warsh nomination, and rate-cut odds
• Dollar strength, metals shock, and spillovers into grains
• USDA trade deficit trends and why domestic use matters
• USMCA timelines, EV workarounds, and North American leverage
• Right-to-repair signals on DEF systems and downtime risk
• ECO and SCO insurance math for spring acreage battles
• Ten near-term positives for farm cash flow and demand

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Transcript

Cold Open, Event Updates, Guest Intro

SPEAKER_00 0:10

Happy Sunday, everyone. Tom Grasathy, Agbable Media, Agble Trading, coming to you from the Nesvik Studios here, Nesvik Trading Floor here in Nashville. Myself and uh a couple associates will be at CattleCon. CattleCon in Nashville. I hope to meet a couple of you. Come up to our booth, CattleCon 2026, Nashville, Tennessee, February 3rd through 5th. I could be the luckiest guy in the world. I only have to walk two blocks from my office to get there, and then I only have to walk two blocks from my office to get home. But you're not here to hear about CatalCon or where I live. You're here to see Mr. Wees Meyer, the one and only. I can tell he's in the back. He's in Orlando. He rushed up to his hotel room. He's getting a drink. He's doing his hair. And with that, let's give him a proper introduction.

SPEAKER_01 1:34

Hello, hello. I'm in Chile, Orlando, where it's twenty thirty-four degrees, and it's going to get down much cooler. I think it's the lowest temperatures in 90 years here. Of course, we knew what was coming.

SPEAKER_00 1:49

Looks like we put you up in the rainman suite. Remember the rainman sweep from the movie? You saw him again.

SPEAKER_01 1:55

And then I had just had a dinner that concluded at an excellent uh seafood and steak restaurant with Mike Seifert. He's the CEO of National Grain and Feed. But I'm here to speak tomorrow morning to the Farm Credit Council. My good friend Christy Seifert is the CEO of that excellent group. And coming up to the hotel room, Tommy, I met uh somebody from Compeer who is a uh listener of the podcast. And I told him, I said, I'm just going up to to do the podcast. He goes, Oh, that's a little later than normal. I said, You do what you gotta do.

Year-Round E15 And The Biofuels Push

SPEAKER_00 2:31

Let's get into it. Okay, we're gonna be a little light on graphics because but that's okay. Uh, we we have plenty loaded up. Let's get into the show. The markets are open, they're moving, there's a lot going on, and as you give Weesmeyers perspectives, it it'll make sense why the markets are moving. We'll start with the light weights and then we'll get up to the heavy weights. Let's go. Trump in Iowa year-round E-15, and now it's up to Connor.

SPEAKER_01 2:58

Yes, he was in Clive, Iowa this past week. Uh, it's a suburb of Des Moines. And while it looked initially like he wasn't gonna bow wow on year-round E-15, he came out and full-thredged uh supported it and said, get a bill on my desk. So now the onus is on Congress. You'll recall, Tommy, that in the in the uh spending bill uh they defeated an amendment for year-round E-15, but I was not surprised about that because it was too sensitive of an amendment. Plus, you had the Speaker of the House and the majority leader in the House, both Republicans, uh Mike Johnson and Scalise, are from Louisiana. They're a top oil producer. So now the onus is to get a separate, uh maybe not a separate bill, but a bill that they can attach to another must-pass bill. And I think that's what will happen. It'll be a supplemental spending bill that will include a number of things, including, it looks like, if they can get total bipartisan approval on a at least$15 billion additional farmer relief package. Now, a lot of listeners have already emailed me when's the timeline for that? What are the odds for that? I can't guarantee you anything in Washington, but I'm fairly confident that they will approve an additional farmer aid package. And it will be probably$15 to$16 billion. Timeline, February, March, or April. Well, it depends on when they bring up that supplemental spending bill. And the reason it didn't pass the last time was because I think the biofuel and the corn industry lobbyist probably relied too much on the support of American Petroleum Institute. Their president, uh, a friend of mine from his AG days at the White House, by the way, Mike Summers used to be the in the John Boehner's uh office from Ohio, and he used to be Speaker of the House, John Boehner. But I think just a couple refiners balked at that. So it just took a little more time to ink a new proposal, and that's what this E15 Council, if you will. By February the 15th, they're supposed to have legislative language ready, and February 25th, this year, they're supposed to introduce it. So we're going to see a lot more, but uh, I think a meeting of the minds is there. The the corn and biofuel industry has to give a little for the small refiners, and I think that they will. So I'm I'm in the more optimistic camp that we'll finally see year-round E15. And what's the significance of that? That's part of the part of the what's needed in agriculture right now to increase domestic demand for U.S. farm products, in this case, uh corn. But in other cases, with the renewable fuel standard program that will be coming out within the next few months for 26 and 27, what are the mandated levels? Uh, what are the reallocations? And when we ever get, and we'll talk about this later, the details of the 45Z program, sustainable aviation fuels. That's what's going to kick in higher prices for grains, because we we, while we have record corn exports, we have relatively tepid demand for soybeans in the export market. And uh wheat is just a is a fierce competitor around the world. There's a lot of wheat around the world. So look for domestic utilization to be the focus point all year. We're going to be talking about this all year.

SPEAKER_00 6:50

That was a mouthful. Next one. Government funding will happen next. And it's good, Jim. The timing of you and I not because my travels, your travels, I wasn't able to do this Friday, Saturday. We got it done Sunday. I'm telling you, God wants us to do this Sunday because there is a lot going on right now. Yeah.

Government Funding, Border Politics, And Timelines

SPEAKER_01 7:06

We have a limited partial government shutdown. The reason is because the Senate acted too late last week, and the House has to approve the changes that the Senate made. Not to get too wonky on you. What the Senate did is they broke it, they broke it up into two different sections. The bills that have wide bipartisan support, and the other one from Homeland Security or the border issues, the ICE funding. So that's going to be held on a separate track. Well, the House has to approve that. Now, today, House Speaker Mike Johnson, he's from uh Louisiana, said that he supports some of the federal immigration enforcement reforms backed by the Democrats. And that's why the Democrats held this up. They go, before we pass anything on Homeland Security, we've got to have some reforms of the immigration enforcement reforms, the deportations, et cetera. And there's growing support for that. However, he said on NBC's Meet the Press program today, Sunday, some of these conditions and requests that they've made, meaning Democrats, are obviously reasonable and should happen, but others are going to require a lot more negotiation. So what's that mean? They maybe could get a bill done tomorrow, Monday, but it could flow into Tuesday. But bottom line, I think the votes will eventually be there to pass a two-week extension to Homeland Security until they work out something on some of these issues that I talked about previously. But the others, the vast majority of government spending will be approved, and that'll last through the end of September. So we're almost out of the woods when it comes to spending measures for fiscal year 2026 that started October 1.

SPEAKER_00 9:02

Okay. That's interesting. The uh we didn't have it as a headline, but didn't the Supreme Court make an announcement this weekend based in Minneapolis 5 to 4? Did you see that? With the to Trump's favor that he is allowed to stay up there with ICE. Oh yes, they did. Five to four. Of course, the press isn't going to cover it because it wasn't to their advantage.

SPEAKER_01 9:27

No, but but they've got the word, and you you had a the Wall Street Journal has an editorial in, I guess tomorrow's paper, they put it online first. There's a state Texas election that was a shocker that the Democrat won in a in a district that Trump won by at least 16 points. And increasingly, it looks like deportation issues have picked up steam in these election races. Now that's just a state election. So it's hard to equate that to these coming November elections with the all of the House seats up for re-election. But the the trend is there, Tommy. The the the American public is basically saying to the Trump administration, we want a secure border. We like what you did about protecting our border, but you may be going a little bit too aggressive on the deportation. So and I think Trump's got that message because you can see how he brought in Tom Holman into Minnesota trying to decrease the pressure in the state of Minnesota. So I think the uh the I would imagine the internal poll political poll election polls that's coming into the White House are not good news for the Republicans.

Supreme Court Notes And Election Signals

SPEAKER_00 10:47

Speaking of good news for financial markets, at least we have some certainty Trump to announce Fedhead nominee.

Trump’s Fed Pick: Kevin Warsh Profile

SPEAKER_01 10:54

We finally got got it. It was a Kevin, but in this case it was Kevin Warsh. Now the markets traded off. Remember on Friday.

SPEAKER_00 11:02

Friday ever last Friday.

SPEAKER_01 11:05

Wow. Ooh, he's a hawk. And uh and he could really deal with inflation in the months ahead. And the dollar went up. We had a pretty good rally in the dollar, and of course, the grains, as you said before, have been working on the they've been focusing on the metals and the dollar, and that's why they're taking a hit again overnight, as you said. And I think that'll build, by the way, in throughout Monday, unless we had some positive news. But let's go back to Kevin Walsh. Who is he? He's the nominee to succeed Jerome Powell. Now, Jerome Powell's can will be the Fed until May the 15th this year, and he can stay as a former uh he can stay as a Federal Reserve governor until the end of January 2028, if he so chooses. As far as Warsh, who is this guy? You know, he's a former Fed uh governor from 2016.

SPEAKER_00 12:05

Handsome young guy, he looks like that's why I think Trump likes him.

SPEAKER_01 12:10

He's gonna be good on camera. He's fair, he's pretty good articulate. He served on the Fed's board of governors, was one of its youngest members when appointed. Uh his college background, BA from Stanford University, law professor, law degree from Harvard Law School. That's all we need is another lawyer. He worked as an investment banker at Morgan Stanley, and that's what I give that a lot of credit for.

SPEAKER_00 12:36

I'm sorry. He worked under legendary trader Stan Stanley Druckermiller. Wow.

SPEAKER_01 12:42

Well, whenever you work in the private sector and come in to work in a government type job, that's always good to me because they know risk. They know in any policy decisions there's winners and losers. And I like when industry people come in to work for the government. He also served in the George W. Bush White House. He was an economic policy aide. He had roles in academia, Stanford Hoover Institution, and the private sector. So, and he's been in on various corporate boards and senior roles in finance since leaving the Fed. And again, that gives you a good good background because he knows the Fed decisions affect corporate decisions on hiring, coming out with new products, etc. Now, Trump has publicly praised his qualifications. He was, by the way, the favorite of Treasury Secretary Scott Besson. So I think that went a long way with uh Trump. Now, he comes amid Trump's broader pressure campaign on the Fed that has been unrelenting to adopt lower interest rates. Now, when you look at Warsh's history, he's kind of reinventing himself the past year or so because he was definitely a hawk. In other words, was aggressive on inflation. You had to prove it to lower interest rates, but he's kind of mellowed the last year. I don't know whether it was to get the job or not.

SPEAKER_00 14:14

Now that you said the word hawk, I've been waiting here patiently. I went on my phone on X and asked Grok, what is a hawk? Because we're saying hawk, and I think we know what we're talking about, but I bet you our viewers and listeners don't.

SPEAKER_01 14:25

Uh yes. Hawk is when you you hold interest rates higher than some people want, because you have to see the proof that inflation has been curtained, uh corralled, if you will, and also the spread sheet, their balance sheet. And he hasn't changed there. He's criticized the expanded cred balance sheet and he and advocated reducing it. That's a hawk to take a more aggressive stance in monetary policy. And that's a stance that could raise long-term rates. I'm not saying they're going to go up, but he brings another element to this debate. And and some backers and studing Stanley Droppen Miller that you mentioned, argue now that he isn't a permanent hawk and he's shown flexibility, aligning more recently with calls for rate cuts. So that comes from his guru. So now there's one fly in the ointment here, Senate opposition. Although I think he he could.

SPEAKER_00 15:33

Oh, yeah, that guy Tillis Tillis from said, uh hell with that, I ain't voting for him until we get Jim. I've been listed. I've been watching. Yes.

SPEAKER_01 15:41

He's not going to vote until the department's the Justice Department's investigation into POM concludes. Now you'll remember that that this goes affecting the the the uh dramatic uh reconstruction of the Fed, that the cost went well, well over the uh shocker that the government built something and spent too much.

SPEAKER_00 16:01

I know you're gonna be uh Yes.

SPEAKER_01 16:04

So bottom line, his his initial nom confirmed nomination rattled some markets because the uncertainty of how he'll his views on rates and the Fed's balance sheet might influence future policy, his relationship, Trump's relationship with Powell and broader Fed independence is debated in the marketplace right now. But he is, like I said, he's a has the charismatic look. He's a good speaker, he knows what he's talking about, and he'll be nimble in some of his comments. And eventually they'll conclude that investigation, and I would say the odds favor that he will eventually be confirmed.

SPEAKER_00 16:48

Well, let's stick with the uh FOMC theme here because we had some more news this week. We did have a meeting, but we did not lower rates, and rates are all over the place due to the dollar and everything else. But the the big dog still in charge is Jay Powell. He is what you casually mentioned under investigation for spending too much. I like Jay Powell. I do I think he's great at his job. No, I think he let inflation get too high for too long. He used that damn word transitory too many times. He kind of looks like a jackass. I mean, you can't say the word transitory a hundred times and let inflation go to nine percent.

FOMC Stance, Rates Outlook, And Market Reads

SPEAKER_01 17:22

Yeah, it's like my doctor tells me my weight was not weight gain was not transitory. He wants it to be transitory. He wants it to go down. That's when I'm gonna take action. Maybe the Fed chairman will be. However, most people don't think Powell, remember, he's Fed chair until May the 15th. So that is the March meeting coming up. I would think that the marketplace would think that they'll still hold, uh, pending what we see in some of these uh data-driven Fed markets. Uh the jobs reports coming out this Friday, that'll be a key report. And of course, inflation reports between now and their their uh their March meeting. But uh that doesn't mean we're not gonna have any cuts this calendar year, because I think you'll get uh probably at least one, if not two, interest rate cuts by the end of this calendar year. That's the bottom line on the on the FOMC meeting that uh didn't surprise anybody anybody, and he held steadfast with his uh data-driven that they that that they need data in order to make the next move. But I don't buy any of the minority conjecture that we could actually see an interest rate increase. I just don't buy that.

SPEAKER_00 18:38

And the markets, the bond markets are not reflecting the at all.

SPEAKER_01 18:42

Huge percentages, huge percentages.

SPEAKER_00 18:45

Let's go uh U.S. ag trade deficit update.

U.S. Ag Trade Deficit: Trends And Context

45Z And Sustainable Aviation Fuel Expectations

SPEAKER_01 18:48

We had that out. Well, USDA is going to officially release it, I think, Tuesday this week. But if you look at the U.S. trade deficit overall, if you did homework, a lot of people don't anymore, you can figure this out. And this is what it showed. The U.S. agricultural trade deficit widened in November despite lower exports and imports. Ag exports totaled a little over$15 billion in November, and that was down from$15.62 billion in October. Imports slipped to$15.59 billion from$16.04 billion the prior month. What's that mean? It it produced a monthly agricultural trade deficit of$553 million. Now that was wider than October's$424 billion shortfall. So US ag exports so far in fiscal year 2026, remember that started October 1, stand at$30.66 billion exports, while imports total$31.64 billion. You don't want it higher, but it is. So that means a$980 million deficit for the first two months of the fiscal year. By comparison, the first two months of uh fiscal year 2025 saw a larger$2.86 billion deficit. So are we making progress? Yes. That we we're narrowing the gap here, Tommy, on the on the deficit. But despite that improvement, USDA's full year outlook still points to Red Inc. They're forecasting 26 ag exports at 173 billion and imports at 210 billion. That implies a$37 billion deficit. Now that'll be smaller than fiscal year 2025's record, 43.7. So 37 estimate now. We had a record 43.7 billion dollar deficit. So progress. We're whittling it down, but we have room to go.

SPEAKER_00 21:00

Very good.

USMCA Tensions, China Workarounds, North America Strategy

SPEAKER_01 21:01

Uh let's talk about uh 45Z, the never-ending this is another component of wherever I go in speeches, and analysts and farmers now know that we have to get domestic demand to kick in. Yes, we have record corn exports. So far, so good on corn. Soybeans, we need to expand the universe of our exports. Wheat is a we have a lot of competition in the wheat export arena. So that means domestic utilization to whittle down some of these, uh the carryover stocks, especially for corn and soybeans. And that's why we need that year-round E15 that'll increase demand for every percentage point up in that use of the uh ethanol blend is a significant increase in demand, even though you have a limited number of uh gasoline stations, by the way, that offer E 15. I know in my area I can't get E15. However, that's just yeah, that's just one component. But the other side is the what we call the 45 Z program. And the sustainable aviation fuel. We have been waiting for well over a year, probably two years, for the details of this. Now, that has to come from the Treasury Department because it's a tax incentive. Let's hope, whenever they announce it in the next few months, that we'll get a very positive rules and regulations relative to the consumption, in this case, soybeans, but primarily soybean oil. If it goes very positive for the ag sector, it'll be what that will crush for oil. That would be a fundamental change because we usually crush for meal. We have to look how they treat uh other countries, other than Canada and Mexico, relative to who qualifies and things like that. But I just want to go bottom line, this is an important program that we really can't analyze it until we know the facts and figures of the rules and regulations. And we're waiting for the Treasury Department and the Internal Revenue Service to come out with them because it's a tax incentive program. But uh I think it's a good move by us going that way, Tommy, because we're going up the value chain. We're not just emphasizing the flat corn or our soybeans, raw soybeans, like Brazil does. They ship a lot of uh soybeans to China and they process it. China learned a few years ago that it's a jobs program to process those soybeans. Well, let's do the same thing here, but use it domestically, and that'll bring in more jobs and it'll boost processing capacity. So these programs make a lot of sense when you factor in. This is not just a farmer program, this is an agribusiness program, this is a jobs program, and it stays in the rural sector where more income comes in and you turn over those funds that helps schools, etc. So I cannot emphasize the importance of these programs. The RFF, the renewable fuel standard program mandate, how they treat the reallocations, the RINs, how they handle RINs, uh the value, and then also for the 45Z program. We will hit on this all year because it's that important.

SPEAKER_00 24:36

Speaking of important, our neighbors to the north, our neighbors to the south. We we uh lot of verbiage this week with Trump and uh Kearney, and then we got uh USMC. What what the hell's going on here?

SPEAKER_01 24:47

Well, the they're the the US U.S. trade representative Jamison Greer met with the uh Mexico, his counterpart. So they're they're starting the process of renegotiating the USMCA. Formal talks will begin in July. There's Jamison Greer. He's kind of the nerd of of the of the cabinet, but boy, does he know his stuff. So you gotta listen when he talks. Now, in the case of Mexico, he said he had a good meeting, they'll continue to have meetings. In the case of China, it's like 180 degrees difference. The administration doesn't like what what their prime minister, Mark Carney, has done relative to China, relative to speaking negative, implied speaking negative about the U.S. and particularly Trump when it comes to trade and other policies. Yeah. And even some Canadians are saying that he's taking a risk. And if they ever do a formal Canadian uh uh uh China agreement, you'll see Trump uh come out and more than threaten he'll implement. Right now he's just threatening that probably won't occur. But uh but but I want to get get still a positive twist on this. Eventually, I hope we come back to the positives in the USMCA because we have a North American market. All countries need this. We have economies of scale with all the people in all the three countries, the advantages, the logistics, uh uh working with the uh Mexico and Canada. But but you the U.S. is gonna use the leverage because that's Trump 101. He will use anything for leverage. And he's the one who came up with initially uh USMCA because he didn't like the North America Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA. So uh I don't think he wants to kill the agreement that he began, but he'll use all the leverage that he can to get some of the uh changes that he wants, and it's primarily having to deal with the China's end around of sending automobiles, electric vehicles through Mexico, and now in this case, maybe through Canada, with Canada's separate agreement for, I think what, 49,000 Chinese EVs with their recent agreement that China agreed to lower the tariffs on Canadian canola and some other products. So all that's wrapped in. But again, what listeners need to know is we've got time on this issue. They're gonna cuss and discuss this going into July. They're not gonna end it. If they do, it still sticks around for 10 years. We would have a new administration come in and they'd probably resurrect it anyway. USMCA is here to stay. We've got to go through ups and downs, and that's typical in a Trump administration. Just keep your eye on the end conclusion, and that will be they'll reform some of the principles in the USMCA, but overall, I think we're gonna continue in a North American market.

Market Turbulence: Silver Shock, Dollar Spike, Crosstalk

SPEAKER_00 27:59

All right, you take a minute, clear your voice. I'm gonna mute your microphone and I'm gonna talk a little bit about the markets. All right, everyone. On Friday, we had the just the craziest day ever, and it all started from the night before when Trump announced that he was gonna get a Fed chair. Now, I'm gonna do a special this week and talk about it, but long story short, is uh silver had an incredible move. And the week before Jim and I were doing the show and we were excited, silver went through 100. Last week, silver went to 122, it went all the way down to the lower 70s. The thing was on Thursday night, silver traded 118. On Friday afternoon, silver was trading in the 70s. It had a 7, 8, 9 sigma move. If you don't know what a sigma move is, Google it, crack it. Go learn a little something about a standard deviation or a sigma move. With that, gold move$500. Fortunes were made and lost. I was on both sides of those for a few minutes of uh the day. It was extremely scary. Now, as the dollar rallied and gold and silver broke, to have its worst day ever, even worse than the Hunt Brothers, it affected other markets. It affected the metals, it affected energies coming into tonight. Crude oil's down 250, grains are down, stock markets down, Bitcoin. I don't know why, but Bitcoin's been getting killed, whether you like it or don't like it. Bitcoin's down 7,000 a night, it's trading about 75,000. So a lot of asset classes that were going straight up are going down now. It's really affecting the markets. If you'd like to learn more about markets, of course, we'd like you to have you on the premium side.$25 a month,$250 annually. We can get you over there. Let's get back to Mr. Wiesmeyer. I bet you he has his throat clear. He's drinking a little bit of fluids. And with that, don't forget we're gonna be at Catalcon this week. So excited recording this here in Nashville, and we're gonna be in Catalcon. Love to see you on the premium side. Let's get back to the show. Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer, turn his mic back on. He's probably had a coughing fit over there.

SPEAKER_01 30:04

And you saw where before the market was giving signals, Tommy, that especially in the silver. You remember when the exchanges a couple of times raised the margin requirements?

SPEAKER_00 30:14

Can we talk about that a little bit? Yeah. Okay. You don't have to be a math genius to understand this. The exchanges have been raising margins, raising margins, raising margins, which makes sense. If if a big silver's contract is 5,000 ounces and it's worth$50 an ounce, you have a$250,000 contract. When silver goes to$100, you have a$500,000 contract. When silver goes to$120,000, so you need to leave more money in your account to trade that. Otherwise, it it's not fair. So here's the problem the exchange is raising the margin, raising the margin. You need 8% of the notional value of the contract. You need 11, you need 12. When a contract moves 33 at 1.38% lower on the day, and you only need 12% of the money in, you could have bought a silver that day, walked away, went to the bathroom, forgot you had a silver on, and thought, well, I have enough money to have one on, even if it goes down a bunch, and lost all your money and a bunch more. And I'm sure that happened. So what the exchange did, and this is wild, Jim. This has people pissed off. Silver lost 33, 34, 35% of its value Friday. You know what the exchange did? They raised margins by 35%. So now when margins were going up, up, the pressure was on the short, right? Every day silver went up, you're short. You have to make the margin call on the short, and you have to keep more money in your account. So that leaves pressure on the short. Silver has its worst day down day ever. And now you have that massive loss or loss of profit or loss of the trade, and you have to send in more money. So just tonight, silver's been down as much as$2 and up as much as$9. And that's in the first hour and a half of trade. I mean, this is unbelievable. When I was a little kid, silver is only worth$9 an ounce. It's moved more than that tonight. A little long-winded, but very important. You're watching.

SPEAKER_01 32:11

Absolutely. And the grants, like I said, were focusing on the outside markets more recently, and that's why they're feeling the pain. Now they're going to have to look for another fundamental reason to either go up or down.

SPEAKER_00 32:25

And that brings us to our next subject that you'll tie in real well with this.

Currency Mechanics And Why They Matter

SPEAKER_01 32:29

Yeah, the declining U.S. dollar, we had been down around 10% or so until recently. I learned a long time ago at hearings on Capitol Hill, congressional hearings, where I sat for long hours in the 70s and 80s and got to understand the economics of agriculture. And the dollar really, to make a considerable impact on a declining dollar, it has to move down and stay down for four to six months. Usually it takes a number of months to have an impact.

SPEAKER_00 33:04

It's not just a one-day event.

SPEAKER_01 33:06

Yes, but that doesn't stop traders and commodity analysts deciding it as a market factor. That's just the way it is. And they'll say, oh, the dollar went down today, giving a bullish tone to uh corn and soybean markets, et cetera. You'll see that a lot of times. And that's why when it goes up a lot, and it went up a lot, that will be cited tomorrow as a factor in any decline in the uh grain markets. But currencies are very hard to track on on an impact basis. But again, the best I can say is that you've got to have a trend. If you trend lower between, like say between now and the end of the year, if we're down 10% on the dollar, that is constructive for farm exports because the vast majority of foreign products are based in dollars. And so if you lower the value of the dollar, that means they can buy more of the products in that case. So if you have a higher dollar, it makes U.S. foreign products less competitive because it makes it it uh means uh using more dollars to buy similar amount of commodities. So that's really why we still cover the dollar every day. Any market analyst should. They should cover the dollar, the gold and silver and the interest rate, the bond markets, because these are all tied together.

SPEAKER_00 34:37

Yeah, and let me add a little trader talk because I'm sitting on the NESVIC trading floor. Yeah, those are called pairs. So we as Americans think everything's based off the dollar, but that's not true. You could trade the Canadian against the yen, you could trade the Canadian against the euro, you could trade all these currency pairs. And if you've ever looked at a Bloomberg terminal, they have all the countries lined up on one side and all the countries lined up on the other side, and you can watch all those currency pairs trade. And what tends to happen, I think it's happening tonight, is when you see that dollar yen start to move, it starts to show that there may be stress in the economy or the dollar, the euro, which is you know, you and I are old enough to remember, we used to have a a D mark of this one, the uh Italian Lira and all that, and all that shit went away. And we have the Euro, correct?

Minnesota Politics, Ag Leadership, And Checkoffs

SPEAKER_01 35:25

Yes, and you also saw in recent weeks the uh conjecture about intervening on the yen, and that really affected trading in the currencies. And then when Scott Besson came out and said the U.S. was not going to help in any intervention, that was a big market factor that particular day. So, yeah, just look at the broad brush when it comes to currencies if you're trading agricultural commodities.

SPEAKER_00 35:50

Let's head up to Minnesota. I know you got a good feeling about this one. A good feeling.

SPEAKER_01 35:54

Amy Klobuchar, yeah. You know, if first I thought she would run, and then farmers said, Oh my goodness, we hope she doesn't run because we liked her. Well, they liked her as the ranking member on the Senate Act Committee. They thought that she would get bogged down in all the fraud uh uh uh uh that's going on.

SPEAKER_00 36:12

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, fraud. You say the update.

SPEAKER_01 36:18

I'm almost positive there was fraud. But anyway, and Minnesota is not the only state that we're going to see when we're all done.

SPEAKER_00 36:26

Gavin Newsome's like, there's fraud everywhere. You know, like boy did he take the pressure off of uh Tim Wallace. He's like, oh well, every state has fraud. Yes, it's part of doing business, right?

SPEAKER_01 36:37

But Amy was a former prosecutor, and I think when she announced her intention to run for Minnesota governor, she'll get it, she'll get the nomination. Oh, very good, and and she'll win because of her track record in getting votes in Minnesota. Now, if that's the case, yeah, she was a former prosecutor. She has more to gain for the years ahead because if she gets involved in clearing up this morass called uh Minnesota gov, really Minneapolis government, she's gonna be a hero. And that could uh uh put her in good steed for the future under White House, another White House run. So watch the long term on this one. Now, if she wins the race, which I think she will, who's gonna be this the top Democrat on the Senate Act Committee? Ranking if they don't control the Senate, chairman if they do. That'll be Corey Booker.

SPEAKER_00 37:36

He doesn't know ag, does he?

SPEAKER_01 37:39

Well, he's a vegan, so cattle people won't like it, pork people won't like it.

SPEAKER_00 37:43

Are you kidding me? He's a vegan.

SPEAKER_01 37:45

Oh, yes, he and proud of it, and he pushes it. So he's gonna be big in the food and nutrition area. Uh his plus side is he's he's a big supporter uh of conservation uh programs, hopefully working lands uh in conservation where you have to work the land in order to get a payment. But another one that I think the ag sector may not know as much is he wants to focus on checkoff programs. If you want to open up a can of worms in the ag sector, Tommy, uh mention uh checkoff programs because that garners a lot of money for certain commodity groups, because say in soybeans, it's based on acres planted. And that's a chunk of money when you're talking to soybean acres. Now, I'm not gonna it's I'm not saying he's gonna get rid of it, but he he being a ranking Democrat, he's gonna bring that up to the fore. And all I know in my history, whenever I write about checkout programs, I get a lot of emails that that people are get upset. So if you want to get upset, uh write about checkout programs.

SPEAKER_00 38:54

Well, I just while you were doing this, I just Googled. I don't think they could see me, they're just seeing you, so I'll just read this. I searched beef checkoff budget, and it said the Cattleman's Beef Board, CBB, approved a 38.1 million budget for the 2026 fiscal year focusing on promotion research, education to boost beef demand. Key allocations include 9.3 million for research, yada yada, yada. So this thing, and everyone's got them corn, beans, this, this, lentils, and some states have checkoff programs, etc.

SPEAKER_01 39:24

But I'll tell you, on my bias, and everybody has a bias on things. But that's why you're I think overall, now everything can uh can be changed and reformed to make it more farmer friendly. If you have a farmer who doesn't want to pay it, they should have an opportunity not to get paid back if it's automatically taken out. I understand that. But the the use, the value of checkoff programs, I think, are worthwhile because it brings market research into what we've been talking about earlier. It's allowed market research to look at increasing not only domestic but international demand for various farm products. And overall, the groups have done a very good, not just a good job, a very good job in looking ahead, not just the next year, but overall in a period of 10 years. What's going to be the food diet, say in Japan in 2040, and things like that? Believe it or not, you can cite some trends that'll help you out in what type of product you grow for the years ahead, et cetera. So uh overall, I think checkoffs are very valuable, brings market research, a needed market research to agriculture, but that it's a sensitive issue, absolutely, because not all farmers agree with what I just said.

SPEAKER_00 40:45

Oh, very good. Let's take it home, EPA Lee Zeldon.

SPEAKER_01 40:49

We're gonna have they're billing this at a big, big meeting Monday morning, tomorrow morning.

SPEAKER_00 40:55

Tomorrow.

Right-To-Repair And EPA Equipment Moves

SPEAKER_01 40:55

Yes, yeah, tomorrow morning. And uh Lee Zeldan's gonna be there, EPA administrator. We have uh Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins, we have uh SBA Small Business Administration, Leffler, uh there. Now they EPAT's what they called a major announcement on farm equipment repair. Now, that's probably the right to repair, and you know that's been a big farmer issue for years that farmers' uh ability to repair their own equipment. That's been a long-run pain point in the U.S. ag sector. And so we're gonna look for that and recall that uh uh Trump has as indicated we're gonna make some farm equipment regulation moves. He said that a couple of weeks ago, and I think that that this is part of it. Now they didn't detail what other things could be announced, but there there's a number of other things beside uh right to repair that could come up. Uh the Zeldon has hinted at easing emissions uh-based barriers that uh lock farmers out of diesel exhaust system fixes. Yeah, that's DEF, the diesel exhaust fluid systems. And that's that's big time. You you go in farm country, if you get to the nitty-gritty, uh usually a farmer will bring this up. And it's a frequent source of shutdowns, homie, and dealer-only service requirements. So I think EPA will will clarify some lawful DEF repairs, sensor replacements, post-cost repair resets, uh etc. So look for that. So we're gonna get something big on farm equipment Monday morning from those uh triad of uh uh of uh uh government officials.

SPEAKER_00 42:42

Well, very good. Before you leave us with the good news, you've been traveling like a madman. Tell us a little bit about your past travels. We know the the snowman got you. Yes and uh where you are today and where you're going this week.

SPEAKER_01 42:53

Well, we did a you and I did a recording of my speech for Joni Grimes out in Columbus, Ohio, and I think it went really went well because we did a we did a YouTube, right? That we gave her a link to a YouTube. It was very good graphics because you produced it, and and she was able to send that link to all those farmers and her clientele that couldn't make it. And then I got on live at the end of the of the recorded uh presentation and then answered answered their questions. We're gonna do a couple other of those in the months ahead, and that's a that's a little sell job, is if any group is listening and it's a little bit less budget because you don't have to pay me to come out. We can do those and just contact either Tommy or myself and we can work that out. Then I went this weekend to my uh original hometown, well, Illinois, but St. Louis, and we had a my sister had her 80th birthday. We had a family reunion, and so that was all fun and played cards. Of course, I lost again Saturday night. I mean Friday night. And then now I'm here in Orlando. I'm going to speak to the farm credit council. They have eight. 800 people here, by the way. Yep, 800 people.

SPEAKER_00 44:13

800 people trying to figure out how they're going to renew operating for farmers.

SPEAKER_01 44:16

Yes. There's wide interest here. And then I'll leave here to go to Baton Rouge, Louisiana for the sugar cane growers. I love that meeting each year when I do it. And then trust me, it's hard to get from Baton Rouge to Palm Springs, California. That's all this week, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 44:38

Go tell your pilot, Palm Springs. I mean, you just don't know.

Travel, Meetings, And Farm Credit Priorities

SPEAKER_01 44:42

Oh man, I'm going to go through Houston and then there. So it's my first two jaunt trip in a while. But my favorite place to speak is Palm Springs. So that makes the end of the week a long week good because that comes at the curb meeting, crop insurance. And uh Mike Torrey, longtime friend, he's an agricultural consultant, has a great group there. So that'll give me the tenure tenor that you can see. I'm going to be talking to a lot of farm credit people. They have a light writing, by the way, on the Farm Bill 2.0 or skinny farm bill. There are farm credit provisions in there that they want done. So they're very interested in what's going to happen to Farm Bill 2.0. And of course, sugarcane is going to be wanting to know hey, are you know that the downturn in prices? Sugar has been hit by a number of negative things. Look at the GLP one. Uh drugs have hurt the demand. You've got the dietary guidelines that de-emphasize sugar. You have the RFK Jr. saying sugar is poison. I mean, where do you go from there? So they want some good news. And I'm going to tell them it looks like we're going to get another cash infusion out there from Congress. So hopefully we can turn this around for sugar, sugar as well. Not just sugar cane, but sugar beets in the Red River Valley. And of course, the curb meeting is crop insurance. I'll get another signal of uh of uh the reinsurance people and things like that of where we are in the crop insurance sector. But I'll tell you, Tommy, everywhere I go on crop insurance from a farmer level, they should pencil out ECO and SCO because Congress and the one big beautiful bill really increase the taxpayer subsidies for those programs. So pencil them out. And that's going to be a good thing going into our last subject, positive developments.

SPEAKER_00 46:40

Let's take it home, brother Wiesmeyer. Reverend Wiesmeyer.

Ten Positive Signals For Ag And Closing

SPEAKER_01 46:44

This is what I'm going to end with uh FCC meeting tomorrow, farm credit. Dietary guidelines is a boost for dairy and protein. The renewable fuel standard mandates, as we keep saying, 26 and 27, whenever we get them, maybe March, maybe late February, should be positive for corn and soybean demand when we get the details. 45Z program, we've heard that. Sustainable aviation fuel. That'll be supportive, especially for soybean demand, once we get the details. I keep mentioning Congress will provide at least 15 more additional money and farm aid to go with the$12 billion uh farmer bridge assistance program that will be out. It's interesting at the commodity classic coming up here, Rollins will be speaking, and I bet she's going to announce the payments during her address at the farmer at the uh commodity classic. So that's in San Antonio, I think. I'm not quite sure. And that'll help bridge the cash flow gap until those new Title I provisions kick in in October 2026. The fifth one is farmers are getting uh stage this uh special disaster relief program, stage one payments, they're gonna see a top-up payment sometime in early summer. And that again, that's gonna bring additional cash flow into farm countries. I've said that several times now. Cash flow. That's very important right now in the ag sector. Where I can guarantee you a rally in early spring in corn and soybeans, as those two commit two key commodities vie for planted acres. Watch it. The seventh one is if China lives up to its purchase commitments, they did on the 12 million metric tons of soybeans. Will they do it on the next commitment? Because it's 25 million, Tommy. So if there's a lot of naysayers, of course, the ag sector analysts are always negative, or most of them are negative. They don't think that'll happen. But if it does, then you're gonna get a rally in beans. The eighth one is pressure on Congress proving year-round E15. I think it's gonna happen in the supplemental spending bill. The ninth is the U.S. economy. I think we're gonna have more growth. That'll boost overall demand for farm products because we'll have a better economy. People will have more money in their pocketbooks, not everybody, but enough, and that'll be good for the consumption side. And the last run, interest rates will eventually go lower, probably two more Fed cuts this calendar year, and more if needed. So that's your top 10 as far as positive developments if you get too down too long.

unknown 49:28

Mr.

SPEAKER_00 49:28

Jim Weissmeyer coming to us live from Orlando on a Sunday night. It's cold down there, it's cold all over America. I'm in Nashville, icy as heck here. Everyone stay safe, Jim. I can't wait to meet with you again. This is my favorite thing I do all week. And don't tell my wife that.