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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Golden Tractors And E15 Dreams
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We break down a volatile week in which commodity markets, biofuel policy, and geopolitics collide, right as farmers head into planting season. We lay out what to watch in the USDA acreage and stocks reports, how the Renewable Fuel Standard changes affect soybean oil and corn ethanol, and why the “golden age” talk does not match farm cash-flow reality.
• Weekly market moves across grains, cattle, cotton, and energy
• Prospective Plantings expectations for corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and cotton
• Grain stocks clues for exports, crush demand, and potential survey surprises
• White House ag event takeaways on biofuels, equipment policy, and farm aid rhetoric
• Renewable Fuel Standard details, including SRE reallocation and import penalty timing
• E15 emergency waiver limits and the infrastructure gap at fuel stations
• Fertilizer supply outlook and why relief may not come until next year
• Planting season safety reminder and signs of tight corn seed availability
• USDA food price outlook showing sticky food inflation and rate implications
• Diesel price pressure and the potential impact of the Iran conflict on inputs
• China summit delay and what “deliverables” could mean for ag exports
• Hogs and pigs report with a tighter, longer-term setup and Mexico risk
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Drop us what you’re having for Easter in the comments
Holiday Opener And Housekeeping
SPEAKER_01Welcome back. I am excited to be home. I'm in Valparaiso, Indiana. This is Tommy Grassoff, and thank you for watching Weese Meyer's Perspectives. I'm opening up the show a little different, kind of in that holiday spirit. Have the pink shirt on. I gotta tell you, we have some filet and some prime rib being cooked. You can hear Jim, he's antsy back there. We gotta let that bowl out because we got a lot of news to talk about. It's a good thing we didn't do the show Friday because news happened. Good thing we didn't do it Saturday because Jim had to get organized with that. Let's give this guy a nice little open with this little video. It has been a while since I clicked on this. But real quick, in the comment section down below, drop us what you're having for Easter. The grassafis are going to celebrate Easter today up in Valparaiso, Indiana, with all our family. And then we're going to travel down to Nashville and go see our daughter, who's a nurse. And as you know, those nurses have to work the holidays. Everybody, enjoy the show. There he is. Who's clicking the button?
SPEAKER_00Well, we got a jam. We've got a jam-packed show, uh, Tommy, because we had a major historical event Friday that we'll get into, but let's let's start going. And we always begin with markets, right?
SPEAKER_01Okay, I'm having a problem here. What is why when we go to two of us, are you not popping in?
SPEAKER_00I'm popped in.
Weekly Markets And Cattle Surprise
SPEAKER_01Oh, there you are. Yeah, there we are. Look at that, folks. We don't edit this, so I'm not going back and adding this, skipping the damn show. All right. You want the headlines? Here we go, headlines. Well, let's do markets. All right. Markets for the week, and uh this something new that Jim and I are doing, just kind of talking about markets. I'm a markets guy, got the ticker going, we got the markets back there. Let's hit it.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, look at the last column, the weekly change, corn down three and a half cents. We've got, let's look at meal down a lofty amount, 1270. Oil up 190 points. That was built in, I think, to the renewable fuel standard program uh ideas. We'll get into that later. We continues to run. Look at the weekly changes in uh soft red, hard red, and spring wheat, up almost 10 cents SRW, 26 and a half cents, uh, HRW and spring wheat, 20 and a quarter cents. Cotton, we finally got cotton in a fledgling upturn, but still below the cost of production. But I'm not going to complain for for those cotton cotton producers. On the December, I know we're over 70 cents. We show the May contract here, but up 215 points. Cattle, uh up a lot. And we have an additional perspective you always give it on on cattle because we had a head scratcher Friday, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01It started jumping out, it just exploded higher, Jim. And every the phone started going, is there something out? What's going on with JBS? But I was at a uh a friend's house and I was working from a laptop, which I've been doing a lot lately, and you can't keep 50 tickets up like you normally do, but I'm glad I wasn't short. That's all I can tell you, because I had a chance to sell some up eight bucks in feeders and up uh four or five bucks in fats. And boy, and you know what's amazing? I I gotta get rid of that picture and just tell you something. And and the folks watching watching here on cattle, Jim. What's amazing is while cattle were exploding higher, the Dow Jones was down 800. Think about that. Yeah, because what's the one thing everyone's like, well, we're not gonna make any more cattle, so it's got to come from stopping demand. And you could see by the grassafis. You ready for that picture? What Gina and I absolutely bless her heart. That woman went to Costco. Look at that, Jim. Look at that. We got uh we got a beautiful filet, she's all seasoned up. I got the uh ribeye ready to go, little blubber, but blubber, blubber. We use some butter, some salt, and pepper. She's ready to go. We got the Easter bunny, the tulips, the candles. And I don't know if you can see that in the dish, but those are those mint flavored Easter MMs, and those are a real winner. You don't become a plus size model like me, Jim. Uh uh speaking of plus size model, you're toning it down a little bit. How's your weight loss journey going?
SPEAKER_00Starting, it's rounding to down 20 pounds already. So very good.
SPEAKER_01Well, Chunky over here got his medicine switched, and I'm down seven pounds for the last two weeks. I I was taking one shot, it wasn't working with me, and I didn't want to be the first guy ever to be on a weight loss shot and gain weight. But then I switched, and I talked to a friend of ours yesterday. Uh, Gina and I had a friend of ours whose mom passed, and he's an oncologist, a cancer doctor, and so he knows what medicines are good and bad for you. He said, do not be afraid to take these shots. Now, we are not giving out medical advice here in Wees Meyer's perspectives. You do whatever the hell you need to do to feel better, but there are risks. But he says nothing is great as the risk of being overweight, having a heart attack, having a stroke. Of course, there's risk, but they outweigh it. So, and that ties into demand for protein, and we'll talk about that a little bit uh more. Happy Easter to everyone. Uh, I think we'll see you again before Easter, right, Jim?
SPEAKER_00Yes, absolutely.
SPEAKER_01Good Friday next year.
SPEAKER_00Here is the sixth, yeah. We'll have a program probably either Saturday, Saturday, probably Saturday.
SPEAKER_01I'm gonna commute down to Nashville and yeah, all right. So we got the cattle marks markets out of the way, and let's just go right into White House.
SPEAKER_00Well, do we have prospective plannings? No, no.
SPEAKER_01Oh, yeah, we're still talking markets. All right, all right, prospective plannings.
SPEAKER_00That's all right.
Prospective Plantings Acreage Stakes
SPEAKER_01Oh, we got a lot more stuff. Jim, I hope you let me come back on your show because I am really butchering this up. Go ahead.
SPEAKER_00We we have the the biggest report for the next six months out Tuesday. Uh, two reports the prospective plannings report and the grain stocks report. And these are the average guesses we give Reuters, Dow Jones, and Agmarket.net versus last year. And look at corn. I'll go with Reuters since most people get that. Uh 94, let's call it 94.4 million acres. That's down from last year's 98.8 million acres. Look at soybeans, 85.5 million acres versus last year 81 million acres. So there's the switch. And your market impact is going to be versus these average trade estimates. And spring wheat, we've seen, yeah, you know, look at you know, North Dakota. This is the the uh uh lowest, if I recall, uh spring wheat in in years. It's the uh spring wheat planting's forecast to drop to the lowest since 1970, Tommy. And that's primarily because of North Dakota.
SPEAKER_01That's the largest spring wheat state. And I spent the week in North Dakota, and I can tell you, everyone's saying, oh, they won't plant corn because of fertilizer. Well, I'll tell you what, they're sure as heck not going to plant wheat because the price of wheat has stunk for so bad that they'll still pay up for fertilizer and go plant corn. If I had to give a little color on this, I would say don't be shocked if the American farmer intended to plant a lot of corn. A lot of things can happen between now and then. Speaking of a lot of things happening, while you were talking, my phone just beeped and it said the Ukraine just bombed Russia's second largest oil field. I mean, there's some wild stuff going on. So, what you intend to do and what you do, Mother Nature will have the ultimate call on that. And fertilizer will influence that.
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. But the prospective plannings report for grain traders, it's the typically the most market-sensitive scheduled USDA event of the first half of the year. And here's perspective, Tommy. There uh the report has a known historical accuracy issue. The last five reports have underestimated final corn acres by 1.6 million acres on average. Soybean area has been overestimated by an average of 1.9 million acres. So that's just perspective going into this report. We gave perspective on spring wheat, cotton. We never forget cotton on this program. Uh they're gonna a number of those acres are migrating to soybeans while irrigated cotton acres on the plains may shift to corn. So even if we got a bearish acreage number for cotton, analysts tell me look at the drought conditions across most of the U.S. cotton belt now. It an area represents 88% of U.S. cotton production now, drought. And that's up from only 33% a year ago. So that's perspective on cotton, and we're gonna have to look at that number as well.
SPEAKER_01All right. Now grain stocks.
SPEAKER_00Grain stocks.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that's so important.
SPEAKER_00That's another one. Now, the average trade gas for uh March 1 stocks for beans is uh almost 2.1 billion bushels. That would be the largest March 1 reserve since 2020, uh primarily because export demands continues to lag recent years. That means China. Uh crush, on the other hand, has continued its record pace. Now, corn, that's been the standout story on the demand for grains. Exports are leading the charge, and stocks are estimated at over 800 million bushels, at least exports of shipments during the second quarter of this marketing year. The stocks report is probably USDA's weakest survey. I say that because top economists at USDA over the years have told me that. And you we always have an in transit problem. How are they accounted for? So uh soybeans, we have a data check. We have crush, we have exports and things like that. So we can get closer on soybeans inventories, but on corn, especially with so with the export demand, we have more than a few uh million bushels in transit, probably. And so that's always could be a surprise, along with prospective planning. Says what's that corn grain stocks number? And that that's the overall market. We're gonna let the market determine once they see the numbers, Tommy.
White House Event And Farm Aid Talk
SPEAKER_01All right, now drumroll, please. White House announcement. We Friday was the Super Bowl of uh, I don't know, smoke and mirrors, if you ask me. What did we get anything done?
SPEAKER_00Oh, yeah, it was a historic event because you have never seen that many farmers and ranchers, of course, uh lawmakers were there, farm state lawmakers on the south lawn uh of the White House. We have a number of pictures where Trump talking to the crowd. There's been various estimates. I I think the best one I was told was about 650 people were there. Of course, the White House will say a thousand. But the announcement, and we'll get into this in detail later, but they announced the record high biofuel blending requirements. They Trump announced the E-15 emergency order for EPA, and he urged Congress again to do codify the year-round E-15. We'll have a little perspective on that in a bit. He spent a lot of time on farm equipment deregulation. That was interesting. Yeah, on the DEF on on that. And he had the tractor people there, John Deere, etc. He showed a uh uh a tractor, a gold tractor. Do we have that picture? NDT. Yeah, golden tractor. Golden tractor, yeah. It's interesting. Trump has a direct connection when he talks about agriculture almost every time. When he talks farm income, then he always says we we want to increase farm income in order for farmers to buy tractors. So uh just I'll get into more of that in a perspective in a minute, Tommy. But the other things that they announced that I thought that was uh were significant, loan guarantees and small business support, they're upping the loan guarantees, and that'll help a number of farmers. He mentioned the the need for Congress to pass the Farm Bill 2.0, the skinny farm bill, and uh but in an important uh statement, he said he's gonna seek additional farmer financial relief from Congress. Now, this is where I've got to put perspective because he it was kind of a cringe quote when he told farmers his administration had delivered$12 billion in support, which they did, it was really taxpayers. But this is the quote that he said this is a quote to farmers. You make enough money, you don't need it. He questioned whether farmer president Joe Biden would have provided the similar$12 billion in aid. He repeatedly argued that farm income has soared under his leadership. Now let's look at the facts. We have a severe cash flow drain underway for most real crop producers that we've talked about for months. U.S. farmers are not making enough money. That's the need for taxpayer aid. And farm income has not soared under his leadership. Last year, USDA significantly lowered farm income forecast by$52 billion. Of course, you can show an increase this year when you cut last year's farm income forecast by$52 billion. So, and this year's forecast is just that, their forecast. So why Trump and Rollins at USDA keep trying to put a positive spin on farm income is bewildering to many ag stakeholders, to be blunt. Now, other things he he recognized cabinet officials in in attendance. He called them great cabinet uh officers. He also signaled out supporting farm state lawmakers in the crowd, and there were more than a few. He told them, he told the legislators, I want your votes desperately, and you are the most aggressive positive for the farmer, other than me.
unknownOkay.
SPEAKER_00So yes. But then he sharply criticized the Biden administration again. He's always politics, saying it had, quote, crippled agriculture with regulations. He's probably right there, and they failed to secure any new trade deals. He claimed his administration convinced China to double soybean imports to$40 billion. And he he did mention adequately his one big beautiful bill act, that's those farm income tax cuts, saying farmers can now deduct uh the full cost of a new tractor in one year. Only Trump could have gotten you that one, he said. And then he said he eliminated the estate tax on farms that saved two million American farms from extinction. Now, another one, he he he launched direct political attacks, calling Minnesota Governor Tim Walls crazy and corrupt, and Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, quote, a dirty cop, and told the farmers in attendance any farmer who votes for the Democrats is crazy. So that's the political spin that he put on that. And here's my final perspective. Okay, here it comes. He's lining up he famed the moment broadly. He declared this is the golden age of American agriculture, is right here and right now. That's Baldur Dash. The golden age of American agriculture line has been used in the past by Secretary Rollins, who has interestingly so refrained from the line recently. Because think about it, Tommy. If this is the golden age for U.S. row crop agriculture, farmers are going to dread the next economic downturn. So he mixed uh concrete uh aid and policy moves, and that was a positive element, but he also just uh just inaccurately described the current economic uh you know situation. And as I said, he clearly connects farmers with tractors and he frequently encourages them to buy them. But but a look at farmer financial records the past few years shows that those producers who avoided big farm equipment purchases the past few years are in better financial shape than others. And and this is one of the reasons why they are still farming. Now, I'm not anti-farm equipment, but it takes profit, profits to purchase expensive farm equipment. And it's gonna be interesting, Tommy, to see to track whether the prices for tractors and other farm equipment come down significantly, as Trump says he wants, because he directed directly to the farm equipment officials there from John Deere and other equipment makers by saying the DEF and other uh farmer-friendly regulations that they announced, uh farmers uh you know, right to repair, should significantly decrease farm equipment cost in the future. We're gonna see. That's my bottom line.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Boy, we're just starting to show. All right, but wait, there's more. Did you get the biofuels details? No, we need to get those.
Renewable Fuel Standard Details Explained
SPEAKER_00That's oh that was the big that was really the big news Friday. Yeah, and we've got some some there's a lot of CDA slide. Yeah, that let's go with the RFF. Okay, there's now there's a lot to unpack, but let's just go through the bottom line. First, the market significant. You're gonna read and hear different analysts been. They're primarily probably talking their own position, not all the time, but half the time at least. The market implications, I don't care what anybody says. This was bullish for soybean oil and biofuel feedstocks because we had a stronger bio-based diesel mandate, and it's supported for rent. Yeah, there's there's uh you know, Lee Zeldon at uh EPA. And you know, go back to the uh bullets, Tommy. Uh going back to the bullets right there. And and it's supportive for rent prices because EPA announced a 70% SRE reallocation. Now that was near the top end of the rumored SRE reallocation. Of course, the biofuel industry wanted 100%, but some of the smaller refiners wanted 50%. EPA threaded the needle there, and I think they did the right approach. Refiner costs are going to rise, but not maximize. That's partial versus full uh you know reallocation. That was why. Imported biofuels retain competitiveness short term because why they're waiting, they're going to wait until 2028 for the import penalty for imported products. But the longer term signal is it's a clear policy tilt toward U.S. and North American feedstocks. That's not bearish, it's bullish because that's eventually going to build domestic demand. It's going to boost higher bile-based diesel. And as I said, it's going to delay the disruption. The import penalty was pushed to 2028. It's near-term constructive for biofuels without shocking the markets. But the longer-term structural shift is now underway toward domestic production and tighter compliance environment. I think it was a farmer-friendly and a biofuel uh-friendly announcement from EPA. So I applaud them for not backing off and that they they they went, they more than threaded the needle. It was a farmer-friendly announcement.
SPEAKER_01Okay, let's go a little color on the markets. I was trading actively my own account helping farmers, but the more these two people talked, the more corn, beans, and wheat went down. Every word that came out of their mouth, the market just was like, this is ridiculous. Hit the bid. Now, the markets had done a good job of rallying earlier in the week, but the wildest thing, and maybe we're decoupling, folks. This is important. Maybe grains are decoupling from fuel or crude, but the markets aren't open yet on Sunday. It's very early on Sunday morning. But crude oil was up six dollars when corn and beans and soybean oil were making lows, and when the president's telling folks that ag's never been better, and you got all these people there. I guess my question is, or my perspective, is where the hell would corn, wheat, and beans and soybean oil be if crude was back down to its normal price of sixty or seventy dollars? And we will talk about that in that crude curve later in the show.
SPEAKER_00Yeah.
SPEAKER_01All right. White House announcement, biofuels details.
SPEAKER_00Then we got E 15, I think, coming up. No?
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Yeah. Biofuels details. You want to chart?
SPEAKER_00No, I think we've E fifteen.
E15 Waiver And Infrastructure Limits
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I'm sorry. Yeah, it's all the way at the end. E fifteen. We have the emergency.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, we have the emergency waiver announcement from the administration, beginning May 1, by the way. But here's perspective. We need Congress to codify that. And we're still waiting for that legislation from Congress. Where is it at? Remember, it was supposed to be out in late February this year. We still don't have it. And now Congress has gone on Easter recess. Shame on those farm state lawmakers who can't come to an agreement with the refining industry for that legislation. But I want to put perspective on the E-15. This is almost like a chicken and an egg, you know, mentioning Easter, because you need infrastructure in order to really increase what to go from E10 to E15, the tanks, the storage facility at gasoline stations. Look at the average blending rate for corn-based ethanol. It's just at just barely 11%. And we've had E15 use in the summer months for several years now, Tommy. My perspective on that is not negative for E-15. It's going to take a while, even if and when we get permanent legislation for E-15 in order to get the number of cars the gasoline at stations, because it it's it's not at many gasoline stations right now. Probably only 30% of all the thousands of gasoline stations is E-15 even available. That's the infrastructure problem that we have. So but it but the service stations and uh and other aspects of the biofuel industry need the in need to have the security that E-15 is going to be around uh for from a mandatory from a uh uh from a mandatory E-15 perspective. So that's why to the Congress needs to codify uh permanent E-15, not mandated E-15. That would even be better for corn-based ethanol. But you if if you follow me, yeah.
SPEAKER_01Hey, you need to be able to do that. While you were talking, I jumped on Google and I got some real facts for you. You ready? There are over 145,000 gas stations in the United States with E-15 often marketed as unleaded 88, available at over 3,000 to 4,700 locations. I mean, you were actually light on how now, if you drive through Iowa, you feel like it's the newest, greatest, best thing. And Minnesota. Okay, yep. But you go to I don't know, somewhere else, you don't come out here, Virginia, you can't find it.
SPEAKER_00So that's the perspective. Now that doesn't mean it that's why when you look at the the forecast for for the impact of going to a pushing towards E15, look at the analysis of what it shows for the average corn blending rate. That'll keep that analysis honest. And the closer you get to E15 in the blending rate, the more bullish it is for corn utilization, corn-based ethanol utilization. As I said, right now, we're just barely at E11. So that's the perspective I wanted to put on it. And thanks for those uh actual numbers, Tommy.
AgBull Subscription Pitch
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. Grab something to drink. I'm gonna run a little commercial for myself. Hey, head over to the Ag Bull website. I think you're gonna really enjoy what we're doing over there, www.agbull.com.$25 a month,$250 annually. That's the paid stuff. Those are the videos during the week, the text on actionable days, the morning research, the afternoon research. Lots of goodies packed in there, all for 75 cents a day. As Jim and I had hinted, pretty soon his content will be exclusively at the AgBull website. Now, your guys have gotten used to Jim giving a lot of stuff away for free, but pretty soon he's gonna be starting to package up some goodies and yummies that will only be exclusive to paid subscribers at AgFull Media. Agbull.com,$250 a year,$25 a month. What do you think of that, Jim?
SPEAKER_00Things, big things are going to come, and that's what I'm saying.
SPEAKER_01I wish we could tell them everything going on, but we can't. We could just tell them that uh we appreciate your support. Oh, speaking of when you were saying where's the E15, I couldn't stop thinking about that commercial. Probably one of the best ad jingles ever. Where's the beef, Jim?
SPEAKER_00Where's the beef?
Fertilizer Supply And Pricing Outlook
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah. There we gotta get some stuff done. We can't go on stage, say everything's great for farmers, and not get something like that done. Let's talk for a lysher. And this probably ties into what we talked about with the deputy secretary. Go ahead, sir.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well, I think Vaden is deputy secretary was right that it's gonna take next year before we start solving this problem, and that's called supply. The Trump administration this past week uh mentioned some aid, some more fertilizer going to come in from Venezuela and Belarus, but we we saw actually fertilizer prices go up. So that's just bottom line. You you can't correct this until you get the supply situation. And and as Vaden pointed out, you have this$15 billion investment by BHP company in uh Canada that's gonna come online as soon as next year, yeah, not this year. And he mentioned a number of uh domestic U.S. companies are going to increase production of fertilizer, but they won't start until next year or later. But help is on the way, so you've got to get the supply.
SPEAKER_01I'm from the United States government and I'm here to help. President Reagan's probably most famous.
SPEAKER_00This is gonna be the private industry. Thank God. Thank God.
SPEAKER_01You know, dear Lord, Jim. Help is on the way. Oh God. All right, back to the show. We're getting, I think we were getting really good at doing this show, and I'm having an off week. And uh I don't know, planning getting closer and harder.
Planting Safety And Corn Seed Tightness
SPEAKER_00Oh, yeah. I mean, USDA is about coming up here to do their crop progress reports. Not this week, but they're it's coming up in April. And this is always a clarion call to uh farmers to be safe, to be safe in the planning. Whenever you deal with these big equipment uh units, uh farmer safety is key. That's the number one thing. Be safe.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it's stuff. Starting to see planters rolling around here. And I were driving. Not that they're planting, uh excuse me, not planters, crap, seed tenders. Seed tenders. You're seeing seed move through the countryside. Again, going back to North Dakota. I just want to state I have some friends who are big farmers, but they're even bigger seed dealers, and they are sold out of corn. Not like, oh, I have 10 extra boxes, someone came in. Sold out of corn in parts of North Dakota. Let that sink in. I used to have a graphic of that of Elon Musk. So they're out of corn seed. Well, let's not get dramatic. I'm sure if you needed some, you can get something. Oh, I bet. But the good stuff, the good stuff is spoken for, gone, picking it up. Farmers like to plant corn, period. And if we have a bullish corn number, even more incentive. Like if spring wheat's down 12 and corn's up 12, even more incentive. And with the way beans sold off Friday, even more incentive to plant corn. I think the American farmer is gonna do what they love to do, and that's plant corn. That's just my opinion.
SPEAKER_00Let me tell you just real briefly, a story. It's your show, Jim. Yeah, one of the one of my career mentors that just I love the guy, he was like a second father to me. He is, was Meryl Oster, who started Pro Farmer, by the way. Long story short, when he was building at that time his new home in Cedar Falls, Iowa, he left on vacation while they were building it, and his plans uh showed a big picture window that looked out into the cornfield. And when the builder saw that, he goes, Well, that's an odd place to put a picture window. He put it on the other side, and when Merrill came back, he goes, No, you put that window, uh, picture window right back. I want to see my corn growing, and he's a typical corn producer, they love planting corn, they love to see it grow. Bottom line.
Food Inflation And Interest Rate Pressure
SPEAKER_01Yeah, all right. We touched about this a little bit. USDA food price outlook.
SPEAKER_00I think we might have a uh we've got some bullet points here to it. This shows Tommy, yeah. Number one, food inflation is not going away. It's sticky. The beef surge is driving the upward division, uh, you know, uh uh revisions, while eggs, dairy, and fats uh are offering limited relief. All food prices now are forecast to increase 3.6 percent this year. That's up for 3.1% in February, and it's above the 20-year average of 3%. Look at food away from home, that's restaurants, rising almost 4%. That's topping the 3.5% historical average, and grocery prices are projected up 3.1%. That exceeds the 2.6 percent long run norm. You think the Federal Reserve is not looking at this?
SPEAKER_02Yes.
SPEAKER_00This shows that inflation is not transitory, food inflation is gonna be sticky and it's gonna be around for a while. But we have some good news as far as the egg prices, but it tells me the market is saying the Fed is uh if they're gonna cut, they're not gonna be many times this year. That's how this impacts uh uh interest rates and bond prices for the months ahead.
SPEAKER_01Right. Speaking of interest rate, Japanese bonds hit uh 30-year highs. The yield in Japan is exploding, not going up a little, exploding higher, signaling dramatic world inflation. So the talking heads say we're gonna lower interest rates. The bond traders, that's the real deal. You think commodity markets are big? Well, United States about 38, 39 trillion dollars in debt. Debt means bonds, folks. Commodities are nothing compared to the world debt markets, and to service that debt, that may be why your Dow is 45,000, not 50,000. Like remember that day. And that's why the dollar is firmer, Tommy.
SPEAKER_00I know we're gonna have interest rates higher longer, and that's why we've seen a multi-week increase in the dollar as a safe haven. That's all tight. We're connecting dots here, which I love to do. Where it's it's it's and these are down days in the corn market. You'll frequently see commodity analysts say, well, the dollar was firmer and it was negative to the uh grain complex. That's why, because it the cost, the the the value of the dollar is going up, making U.S. ag commodities more expensive in a competitive market.
Diesel Prices And Iran War Risks
SPEAKER_01Very good. All right, we got through food inflation.
SPEAKER_00Let's go over oil prices. Yeah, uh, you're you're the guru on that, but I would say that the national average for a gallon of diesel fuel. We haven't talked diesel fuel for it.
SPEAKER_01You can Google it while you're talking.
SPEAKER_00Well, it was five dollars and thirty-eight cents on Friday. I don't know what it was this weekend. That's nearly two dollars per gallon higher.
SPEAKER_01How about I go to gasbuddy.com? Yeah, that's a good little site.
SPEAKER_00Well, that's at the average gas price. Are we over four dollars yet for gas prices?
SPEAKER_01Standby operators are standing by. It was$3.98 on Friday. I think they want me to log in. They want to get my data.
SPEAKER_00Okay, but diesel price run-up is have it coming just at the time their farmers are gearing up for the spring planting season, as you well know. And fertilizer prices, as we said before, have climbed sharply in recent weeks. And that's tied in part, of course, to the ongoing military operation in Iran. And that's resulting in the disruption to shipping, primarily urea. That's how that's how that war is affecting the U.S. farmer. Urea. A lot of urea comes through the Strait of Harmuz. And a little quick update on the war with Iran. We they can say all they want in this town that we're not going to have boots on the ground. I'm hearing the opposite. I don't think if Trump wants to totally deal with Iran, he's got to get at that uh nuclear uh uh uh quote, you know, nuclear situation in Iran. And that means they have to go find it and and get it out. And that means probably boots on the ground. Not a massive number, but I think that's what we're gonna see in the weeks ahead. He's positioning uh strategic uh you know military people, I think, from a forthcoming military operation. That's conjecture. I I want to emphasize conjecture, but uh, the best thinkers I have sources are signaling if Trump wants to go for history, history, he'll do it.
SPEAKER_01And this guy's a big part of that.
SPEAKER_00Pete Hell. Oh yes, yes, yeah. He he's he's pushing, along with Saudi Arabia, by the way, who's telling Trump, don't stop, don't stop now. History has shown, Tommy, when you look at over history, when look at what Hitler wrote a book and said what he was going to do and he did it, you know, with the killing of Jews. Look at what the Russia uh signaled uh decades ago of what they were gonna do, they did it. And look what Iran is signaling. They want the they want to defeat, kill the US and and Israel. Trump, I think, is the only president in a long time that actually is listening to what Iran is wanting to do and deal with it. Now he's got the general legacy media against him. Hell, if we had the media now back in World War II, I don't know whether we would have won World War II, the way they second yes. And I don't want to get off on a tangent there, but uh it's okay. These things need to be talked about.
SPEAKER_01Probably the most serious subject we've ever talked about in our nine months of doing this show.
China Summit Delay And Ag Deliverables
SPEAKER_00Yeah, but but I'm just saying, you look, yeah, I know boots on the ground, you could have soldiers coming back in caskets, and that's the political dynamic on this. But I think Trump is going for historical significance and learned the lessons of the past, Afghanistan, Iraq, uh other aspects. So I think he's gonna follow through more than many people think. But the markets are starting to sense that too. They think this is gonna go on longer than what at least the administration is saying now. So that's why you've got still high volatility in the VIX and and other things, because the market's beginning to sense, you know, this thing is not gonna be over next week, which let's connect dots again with the do we have the next one on the G Chino thing or not? I don't know Get a great here because Trump and G rescheduled their summit for May the 14th and the 15th. For now, I add, because if this if this if we do put any boots on the ground, that could we could sense another further delay in that big summit in Beijing that both of those leaders won and hopefully they will have. But for now, it's been rescheduled. I think that's positive to reschedule, Tommy. Why why do I say that? It's giving uh the US and Chinese officials more time to work on deliverables, what we call deliverables. And agriculture is eventually going to be a big deliverable. They are gonna increase their corn purchases. Maybe they'll announce some commitment levels. They are going to open up a little bit more than they are now in approving more U.S. beef uh plants. Soybeans, at least Trump is pushing them to get eight more million metric tons of soybeans for this marketing year. Maybe they won't get as much, but he's going to push it. Sorghum is in is in the are on the agenda. Maybe we'll even get cotton. But my bottom line on that is don't think this is a negative to have this being postponed. It's giving those trade officials, uh Jamison Greer, the U.S. trade representative, Treasury Secretary Bessett, and others more time to deal with their counterparts in China in order to get a better deliverable. So when Trump's over there in Beijing, whenever it is, as long as it's not too late in the year, the deliverables that Trump wants. Now, China's gonna want some things too, and we're gonna have to find that out after the fact. That's my bottom line on that summit.
Hogs Report Outlook And Mexico Wildcard
SPEAKER_01Very good. We're at the end. Hogs and pigs, unless you want to add any color.
SPEAKER_00No, that's hogs and pigs. Uh, we had a major, that's a major report on hogs and pigs, and I think we we've got the bottom line here, Tommy, on that one. Yeah, look at it, it's kind of a short-term pain, long-term gain. Ample supplies remain in the pipeline. The pressure on hog prices will persist absent of demand shock. But look at late 2026 this year. The breeding herd is contracting. We have lower farrowing intentions, and it points to tightening supplies, and that's potential price. Potential. So the key items to watch is usually the case where you had the feed components and the demand. Now, there's something to watch on Mexico. Mexico has a investigation of U.S. uh pork subsidies in the past. So, yeah, that's a wild card that in the months ahead. I think we're gonna know in September, I think that's the next time timeline. And we'll have a report probably on that in our next in our next podcast, where we'll give an update on Mexico's challenge to the U.S. uh pork industry. So, bottom line on the hogs and prigs report, a little bit for everybody, bull and bear, bearish uh short term, neutral to bearish short term, longer term. I think what most analysts are telling me, constructive for price uh outlook. That's the bottom line.
Final Wrap And Sign Off
SPEAKER_01Very good. Well, folks, we're getting towards the end. I just want to say uh thank you, and I'm gonna sit down after this and get this done. But my family, we're going to the family who lives up in northern Indiana, we're gonna celebrate Easter. And I just ask you a favor. I'll say a prayer for all of you out there, and then you say a prayer for us and say a prayer for America because we need it right now, Jim. Check us home.
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. You're seeing this past week we got some of the details under the increase for domestic utilization of U.S. farm products with the bio of the with the renewable fuel standard details that were neutral and friendly for corn, but definitely friendly for the soybean complex. You saw Trump come out and say that he wants more former financial aid from Congress. I know there's former aid fatigue in uh some at some, but not a lot, in farm country and Congress, but I think there's additional uh aid ahead. And we've got still robust demand for corn under the export market. So eventually, once we get these USDA reports out of the way on Tuesday, we're gonna have the fundamental reasons to show whether or not how we're gonna trend in corn and soybean, wheat, and cotton prices for the months ahead. That's my bottom line.
SPEAKER_01That's the end of the show. Very good. We'll see you next week. Lots of good stuff. Action packed show. And uh folks, thanks for watching. Like and subscribe. We'll see you soon.
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