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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Corn Hits Lows As Soymeal Surges
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We run through a fast-moving week in which grains sag, soybean meal heats up, cotton rallies, and energy headlines start to steer inflation and farm input costs. We connect the Strait of Hormuz news to crude oil, diesel, interest rates, fertilizer prices, planting weather, and what Congress may actually deliver next.
• corn hits a six-week low and charts turn bearish
• soybean meal strength tied to spread unwinding and feed coverage needs
• wheat pullback after a rally, with drought still a backdrop
• cotton at 12-month highs while cattle make new contract highs
• WASDE was viewed as uneventful, with attention shifting to next month
• direct US-Iran talks and why the Strait of Hormuz matters for markets
• crude oil’s steep weekly drop and what it could mean for diesel
• CPI and core inflation read through the lens of energy
• core PCE reinforces a higher for longer Fed stance
• USDA FBA payouts update and the April 17 signup deadline
• E15 faces a patchwork of state and local compliance rules
• the case for higher ethanol blends as gasoline demand slows
• Rollins teases a major policy announcement as fertilizer prices surge
• Kansas City Fed survey points to rising operating loans and stress
• planting weather delays, drought pockets, and the first soybean planting report
• Congress returns with E15 language, disaster aid, and farm bill questions
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Welcome back, everyone. Happy Saturday. It is April 11th. It's Tommy Grossofi. I'm coming to you from my Hodge Podge setup, working on a dollar camera. I probably have a hundred grand worth of equipment here and none of it's plugged in. But that's not your problem. That's my problem. Let's talk about the problems of the world. And we have just the guy to do that, Mr. Jim Weissmeyer. You're watching Weissmeyer's perspective. You only can find this on the AgBull Media channel. And we are so happy to have Jim with us. You're probably wondering with all this breaking news, how do we get news? Well, we have a sponsor. And who do we use? We use Trade the News. Agbow Media, proud user of Trade the News. And the Trade the News folks said sign up for a trial. Tell them the AgBull boys sent you. Tell them you were watching We Smeyer's Perspectives and they'll give you a free trial of Trade the News. I use it, and the whole Ag Bull team uses it, and the whole NESVIC company just signed up for a free trial. That's how we're getting our information. That's how you should get yours. Moving on to the sales pitch. I noticed several of you signed up last week. And thank you. We're grateful. www.agbull.com,$25 a month, or you could save a little money,$250 annually. Sign up for the premium. We have so many new premium contributors, big names in the ag industry. Some that you can only find on this channel. But as you notice, the world's changing, especially in media. And if you know, you know. All right. That's that for me. You didn't come here to see the sales pitch, but hey, we got to keep the lights on. As you can tell in this setup, it's not well lit. I am grateful you tuned in, and I know who you want to see, and we're going to bring them in here shortly. There he is. You know who they used to call Papa Bear? Who's that? George Hallis, the original. Oh, yeah, that's absolutely the owner of the of the show.
SPEAKER_00How are you doing today? I'm rested. I'm coming off a mini high because last night I watched the Artemis II land down and perfect. Just was unbelievable. Talk about a feel-good uh uh you know you know topic, Tommy. That was great to watch last night.
SPEAKER_01You know what else was interesting to watch this week was markets. Should we talk markets a little bit? Let's talk markets. All right. Well, they were moving and grooving, and I watched a lot of outside markets, but let's let's get into the grains. Take it from the top, sir.
SPEAKER_00Well, you saw corn made a made us the May corn hit a six-week low. That's not good. It's technically bearish. So suggesting maybe we could have some more chart-based selling pressure. Let's hope that's wrong.
SPEAKER_01You know who has two thumbs and owns a ton of corn? Who's that? The funds right now, the funds they are long out the guzu, and same thing with beans and bean oil.
SPEAKER_00Go ahead with beans, beans at some more downside pressure. Could may soybeans. They closed at a nearly four-week high. That's the good news. Soybean meal. Tell me what it soared, Tommy, and hit a three-week high. And for the week, they were up what? Over almost$17. What comes into the meal market?
SPEAKER_01Well, look at the oil market. You see that oil meal spread unwinding.
SPEAKER_00Okay, that's it.
SPEAKER_01You'd think with us squishing all these beans, we'd end up with a lot of extra meal. That's what everyone used to talk about a year ago. Is we're gonna crush so many beans, we're gonna have so much meal, they'll be giving it away. Well, apparently not. So if you're out there, if you're in the business of hogs or something else, you better make sure you have your coverage right and wrist protection right in that meal because it is not free, my friend. Moving on.
SPEAKER_00Wheat. Wheat, uh, SRW and the May, they hit a five-week low. And for the week, uh, as the as the table shows, they were down 20 a little over 27 cents. HRW wheat may hit a five-week low. So uh we had a pretty good run-up in wheat, Tommy. So I think it's uh seeing a correct element now. But there's some droughty conditions definitely going on in wheat countries. So I think downside may be limited.
SPEAKER_01Cotton. Yeah, cotton.
SPEAKER_00Cotton hit a 12-month high. I mean, that's you couldn't you talk about positive needed for that industry. And May Cotton was up 230 points for the week. So what we've got at uh 70, oh a little over 73 cents. We need to get it up at least another dime to 20 cents, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01You know what I got for cotton? I got a little graphic. It's on the bullish train, brother. Cotton moving on up. Live cattle, feeder cattle, lean hogs. Take it home, brother.
WASDE Reaction And Next Report
SPEAKER_00You can't bring cattle down. June cattle live futures hit another contract high, and for the week was up lofty levels. May feeder cattle futures hit a five five and a half month high. June hogs, uh, lean hogs hit a two-week low. That's it. And we had a technically bearish weekly low close. That's what the technicians say. That's the wrap-up for the week that was in the in the grain and livestock sector. Brief, brief comment on the WASDI report that we had earlier this week, Tommy. It didn't, it was an uneventful uh event. It is next month's WASDI report that'll have USDA's initial look at, not based on surveys, look at the new crop SD. So that's the one that uh traders and and analysts will uh you know gear up for. It just showed adequate supplies of you know, most of the commodities. USDA upped their price forecast for a number of commodities, but USDA's guess on prices is just as good as anybody else's. Uh, it's just a guess.
Iran Talks And Strait Of Hormuz
SPEAKER_01We like to call that here at the Ag Bull Trading War Room. It was a nothing burger. We texted our clients, it was a nothing burger. It was. It was. We have breaking news, breaking news, and of course I am the sound effects on this. Here giggling, here giggling. Why are you laughing? We got kind of good news, breaking news. I think you sent me a really cool graphic of that, and I have it right here.
SPEAKER_00What's going on overseas? Wow, the talks in in Pakistan. You know, that's the first direct talks in I think 50 years between the US and Iran. That's that's enough. It's yes, that's what that's what I see. I had no clue. Yeah. Now uh it's interesting to point this perspective out, Tommy. I most of the public information from the news services, to me, in my personal judgment, are one-sided on the uh Iranian side. I I cannot understand that. But direct negotiations are underway as we speak, and they may go in another day. Now, the biggest market factor of these talks is the future of the Strait of Harmuz. And that's that narrow you know passageway.
SPEAKER_01Now I got one of those.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, oil tankers have been begun cautiously trans transiting that strait. And US naval forces have resumed transits through the strait. That's the breaking news for the first time since the conflict began. What? February the 28th. Five weeks ago, yeah. Yeah. Now, a lot of a lot of news services have not even confirmed that. I don't know whether they don't want to report it or what. Meanwhile, operations to clear potential naval mines and secure safe passageways are ongoing. Iran has said they they don't know where they put some of the mines. So there's that's at least that's what they say. So it's it's addressing the broader issues beyond maritime uh access, sanctions relief, release of frozen Iranian assets. I think the U.S. will be very careful about that, you know, because Iran keeps changing what they say they want out of this. But this thing is gonna be you know focused on before Monday trading. How did it work out? But the because the outcome of the talks are gonna be critical in reason in determining whether the U.S. is going to resume military operations in that country.
SPEAKER_01Quick question, Jim. Did you see the picture of all the boats heading to the U.S. to pick up fuel in the Gulf? Yes, yes. You want to give a little color on that?
SPEAKER_00Well, bring it here. We've got the fuel, and and Trump is saying we've got the right price, too.
SPEAKER_01And we get a little extra from Venezuela, is that correct?
SPEAKER_00Yes, that. And of course, what's wrong with you?
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Hey, do you have an hour? Whatever someone says, what's wrong with you? Did you have an hour?
SPEAKER_00To the victor goes the uh benefits. That's why I'm laughing. We we fought for that and won it.
SPEAKER_01All right. Well, that was an easy battle compared to this other stuff.
SPEAKER_00But let's go bottom line for the economy of the of the Strait of Art Blues and the war. The duration of the conflict, uh, conflict is the key for all the markets. Consumers in the U.S. have held up relatively well. However, those sustained elevated energy prices are starting to impact some of the numbers we're seeing on inflation that we'll get into later on. This is a logistical issue. Continued shipping disruptions are bleeding back, Tommy, to many goods. And we're seeing that in the marketplace. The global economy have weathered some of the impacts, but not all. The duration, again, is the key. So countries are going to rethink their supply chains again if this thing is not rectified over the next next few weeks for the for on a positive basis. And I think we're coming to to an end zone here. I really believe it over the next few weeks.
SPEAKER_01A little color, and you now have those live quotes also provided by plus 500. But after hours, crude oil settles at about 1.30 in the afternoon and it really closes at four. On the four o'clock closed, it closed on the dead low,$95 for crude. Friday's range was about$100.95. Stock market didn't rally as much as I thought it would after hours with that lower close and crude, but I'm sure there's a lot of people jittery. So if we do gap open, if we do have positive talks and gap open, look for continued unwinding of whatever went up would go down. And I would like to say I feel like the grains have already disconnected. Wheat has given up its rally, corn's given up its rally, beans have found some legs. It probably has to do with future China meetings and China trying to do some goodwill. That's a speculation, not a confirmed fact. That's my two cents, and that's all I got for you, sir.
SPEAKER_00Let's get into it on crude, Tommy. Brent crude posted a weekly loss of 12.7 percent. West Texas Intermediate, WTI, registered a 13.4% weekly decline. That was the largest since April 2020. Just additional perspective.
Inflation Data And Fed Rate Outlook
SPEAKER_01I'm not gonna let you finish. I want to get the last word. I think you'll see diesel with a four in it here coming in the next week, correct? Yeah, because what are we at the mid-five oil? Just yeah, if you go down the highway, it was 550, it's probably 525. But heating oil, which is essentially diesel, right, has really, really come down here this week. Big drops in that. All right, back to the show. Oh, I I kicked Jim off the show. Jim, come back. Don't leave us. All right, let's get in economic data because we had some of that. You want to talk about CPI?
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. It showed the impacts of those elevated energy prices, but the core CPI remains relatively subdued. Let's go to the numbers.
SPEAKER_01March CPI to the Middle East facts. Okay.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that March CPI moved up 0.9%. That was in line with expectations, but it's still a sizable rise from the 0.3% uh boost in February, Tommy, on an annualized basis. Inflation was at 3.3 percent. That's that's a sharp rise from the 2.4 percent rate in February, and it got the Fed's attention. The main factor shouldn't surprise anybody energy. The index for energy rose 10.9 percent in March.
SPEAKER_01Hello.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's a big number. That's a well, I'll give you an even bigger number, led by a 21.2 percent increase in the index for gasoline, and that accounted for nearly three-quarters of the monthly all items increase. So, yeah, energy is driving things, and that's why Trump and and the Republicans looking at midterm elections want to open up that strait. Let's look at the core rate of inflation that strips out the food and energy prices, and that increased 0.2 percent in March, and uh that marked a steady rate on the monthly basis, Tommy. So that wasn't as negative as people thought it might be. But then, as part of this report, each time they talk about food prices. Overall, food prices were steady in March, but egg prices were down 44.7 percent on an annualized basis, and beef now the general farm media are pointing out that overall meat and poultry and fish prices fell, but uh beef and veal prices were up 12.1 percent, with an 11% rise in uncooked ground beef prices compared with year alone uh year-ago levels. So it's it's still a lofty level. Here's one I I came up with this morning, Tommy, as I looked more at that report. Tomatoes, they're suddenly one of the biggest drivers of grocery inflation. They jump right, yeah, they jumped 15.3 percent in March, and they're up almost 23 percent year over year. So we've got to run on tomatoes for some reason. Bottom line the inflation report, it shows the impact the Middle East war is having on energy prices. The core rate of inflation has not yet seen those higher energy prices translate to price increases in other goods, but we may see that in next month's report.
SPEAKER_01Hmm. That's interesting because this is this next one's something the Fed really likes to look at. Talk about PCE price index.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, that's the personal consumption expenditure, PCE price index. And that's the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation. So that's why we're commenting on it. On a monthly basis, core PCE, I think it was out Thursday, rose 0.4% in January. Now that matched December's pace and marked the fastest rate of increase in roughly 10 months. So that's not a trend as your friend sort of thing. The lack of moderation underscores why inflation is sticky, especially in services and wage-sensitive sectors. This is what the Fed looks at on an annual basis. That's even more important. Core PCE increase 3.1% year over year. That's the highest level in nearly two years, and an uptick from 3.0% previously, well above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target. So if you think the Fed's gonna lower interest rates, forget it. This this PCE rate is not suggesting they should. So what we're gonna but but it does strengthen the case for a higher for longer interest rate stance, as is. They're not gonna do anything, Tommy. That's what that report said.
SPEAKER_01Move along. USDA, FBA payouts.
E15 Patchwork Rules And Demand
SPEAKER_00Yeah, the farmer bridge assistance uh effort. Remember, they were they're going to pay out$11 billion. They've dispersed almost$9.2 billion in payments. Now that was as of April 7th. Now, they started delivering that that aid to farmers, if you recall, by the end of February, and the total payments are expected to be about$10.8 billion. And recall there's another billion dollars coming in the pipeline for specialty crops and sugar producers, but that's still pending. I want to stress producers have until April 17th to sign up for the FBA effort covering the major crops. I would be shocked if the vast majority of producers have not signed up for that program yet. That's the bottom line on the FBA, Tom.
SPEAKER_01All right, let's get to the E15 challenges facing E15.
SPEAKER_00You know, I had an email. This is why my grassroots are farmers for ideas and traders and individual officials from companies.
SPEAKER_01And I think a little bit go back. Look at explain to people the demographics of who signs up for the Wiesmeyer letter.
SPEAKER_00They run the gambit, and that's why I love it. They're a pulpourie of producers, uh, which I love. That's my heart. My heart is the producers, but then agribusiness, agribusiness. When I worked for Sparks Commodities, that's where I got the agribusiness flavor, and I'm telling you, it added so many layers to my hoped understanding of the business of agriculture. Then you have individual traders, T-R-A-D-E-R-S, traders, who of course usually talk their position, but I respect their position, so I need to hear what they're saying. All those, Tommy, plus congressional staffers and senators and representatives. So actually, I like congressional staffers because they do most of the work up there. It's not their bosses. So I that that's really the nucleus of of who gets my report and my my uh my uh uh I guess I want to call it minor league of of uh of information because they think they don't help me, but they do in some of the questions they ask. And that's why they they they give me topics and I'm only as good as their questions that present. And that's why, Tommy, you and I give speeches too, because hopefully we learn as much when we go out on the road than then you know we depart in some of our analysis and and perspectives when we speak. And that's gonna be the case. One of the trips I look forward to the most each April is my trip down to southern uh you know, Virginia, my home state now in Charlottesville. Beautiful area. If if any of you have not ever been there, go there. It's just beautiful. And I speak to the Virginia cattle producers, and I'm gonna be there three days, I think. So yeah, part of the group that's speaking will be uh David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. So I'll uh have dinner with him a couple of nights, and then uh Steve uh Peterson, farm service agency administration official, will speak to the group. He's a consummate government employee who does his job with fervor and passion. So I always like to hear him and I'll get some updates on farm programs. And Jeff Harrison, an official at Comvest Cell, uh one of the best ag consultants in Washington, D.C. Of course, I'll listen to the Virginia cattle producers to to hear what they have to tell me because they go to a lot of meetings themselves. So look for that coverage in the coming week. But let's get back to E15.
SPEAKER_01E15. Tell people where they can get your articles if they've ever missed one. Well, on your site. On your site. You got your own tab. Absolutely. And we're redoing the site, and they're gonna have an easier, better way to get every article you've ever put out. We post them now. Yeah, go to the agbol website and go to the channel, but we're updating it so that it'll uh be even easier and we'll uh start a cleaner distribution process. www.agbull.com. It's still free. I don't know why. It's still free. We're gonna talk about that, but uh, you are a very generous man, and that is your gift back to agriculture.
SPEAKER_00Yes, absolutely. And that was a long way to address an email I got actually from an ag consultant in town. I can say I think I can say his name, Tyson Dunpath, who's a who's a key official in in the Russell group, my good friend Randy Russell. He emailed me and he said, you know, a lot of the his clients say on relative to the E15, there's an implementation issue, regulatory fragmentation. And he asked, What's that mean?
SPEAKER_01That's not true.
SPEAKER_00Well, that means retailers across the U.S. are really not resisting E 15 because of lack of interest or consumer demand. They're running into a far more complex obstacle, Tommy. Fragmented and often inconsistent patchwork of fuel labeling, pricing. Disclosure and signature rules that unbelievably vary by state and in many cases by locality. So we've got a hundred unique combinations of labeling, signage, and pricing requirements. So there's not a single national compliance system, but a matrix of rules that must be navigated market by market. Now, I put out a report and it's on your internet uh site on uh listing some of these uh hurdles, if you will. That doesn't mean I'm negative E-15, but it means I'm not quite so trusting of some of these reports that I've seen on the uh consumptive impacts if we get permanent E-15 because of some of these structural issues, uh Tommy, that that I just went through. Hopefully, if we ever get the codification from Congress on on permanent year-round E-15, maybe the next step will be to get a uniform uh uh implementation on the regulatory side to solve some of these issues that I just said. But when you look at E15, another another special I did on ethanol this week that that's that that's uh on your site, looked at really the bottom line on ethanol is that's why we need E20. We need E25, because the RFS is based on gasoline consumption. And with the with the numbers of electric vehicles, but especially hybrids, we're we're doing in a declining gasoline consumption market. That's why E15 and actually a higher level is needed for the future to keep increasing corn-based ethanol consumption. That's that's what it told me. And I'll tell you, I've got a personal story. I just got a month or so ago my first hybrid car, it's a it's a SUV. And I get 34 miles per gallon going from here to my supermarket. I mean, I know I've the most I ever got was 19 miles per per gallon on an SUV.
SPEAKER_01So if if the administration wants to lower prices for consumers of gasoline, this guy's talking that he's gonna lower prices of everything, but it's not happening.
SPEAKER_00Well, do it do a tax incentive for hybrids, not EVs, hybrids, because most Americans, you don't have to charge, you don't have to personally charge it.
SPEAKER_01I don't see you plugging nothing in. No, you break you trying to plug in your microphone some days and it don't always go well.
SPEAKER_00You you do the charge by breaking. Now, that's now what about the farmers? This is why you couple it with a push above E15. It can be done. Look at how many countries. Maybe this week I'm gonna look at all the countries that are above E15. If they can do it, why in the heck can't we do it? Drop some swear words. No, no, no, I won't go there. But this is why I, you know, the lobbyists in the biofuel industry, they got the wrong number. It shouldn't be why was it E10 to begin with? Why was it E15? Wasn't an algebraic equation, you know? It should be E20, E25, E30. And I remember Colin Peterson, former house actors telling me years ago, yeah, that he had put in what 20 or 20, E25 in his trucks and they ran fine. So Colin was right then and he's right now. Bottom line, these are the issues that I think will eventually have to be dealt with in order to have a sustained corn-based ethanol program, and I hope we get it. Bottom line.
SPEAKER_01Very good. We Rollins was in the uh had a lot of news, different shift in schedule. What happened there this week?
SPEAKER_00Oh gosh, you know, there was she was going to Ohio, I think it was, uh, earlier this week, and all of a sudden they issued a thing that her trip was canceled. Well, I did some digging, and then it was the reason was she had to meet with President Trump at the White House. Well, something's going on there.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. And then this guy calls you can't do trips.
SPEAKER_00This is yes, this is why I like doing the program usually on Saturday, because breaking news. Rollins late Friday said she'll be in Michigan this Monday. And she's going to make, and she says it's a lot, but she's going to make a major policy announcement after a roundtable discussion with farmers. Then this morning, Trump on his social media warned against price gouging by the quote, fertilizer monopoly, as he called it. He said the U.S. will not accept price gouging from the fertilizer monopoly. That's a direct quote. He said in a in a Trump uh, you know, uh uh social post. True so now, what is this going to be about? You know.
SPEAKER_01Can we talk about fertilizer prices from our and Josh Lindville? Tie into this.
SPEAKER_00Oh my goodness, look at those percentages. Look at that. This is why it's got the White House attention. Urea, what? It shows 49 up 40, 49%. Others are up in the fertilizer area, uh 38%, 32%. DAP, 21%. Potash, thank goodness for Canada, up only, I should say, 3%. And corn, we're only 0.5% higher. That was the sixth-week anniversary of the closure of the Strait of Harmuz. That's good perspective, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01I'm glad that's Josh Lindville from Stone X. Folks, if you're not following him, jump on X. Josh Lindville does a wonderful, wonderful uh job. And if you're out there, Josh, uh, we'd love to have you on the show.
SPEAKER_00Now, this is why this has got the White House's attention, and this is why Brooke Rollins to pull her trip to Ohio and meet with Trump, not just on fertilizer. This I think they're seeing some internal polls they don't like in the farmer voting pattern. Not that uh yeah, about 60 to 65 percent of the rural sector, rural, not just farmers, vote Republican. The problem they're beginning to ascertain, from what I can understand, is not that these uh the ag sector will vote Democrat, they may not just vote. So that's got their attention. So Trump, as you recall today, pressed fertilizer prices, and Rollins has teased a major USDA announcement on Monday. We'll see now. We'll see. Yeah. So now what other things could they talk about? Uh, you know, you're seeing them get very aggressive on fertilizer. I think you'll you you'll probably see them talk about food prices of how they're helping in the egg area, not so much of the of the uh beef as as we pointed out. So, but it's it's we've shifted to what's Rollins' planned announcement. And I think that they're detailing that with the White House. So I think there could be an initiative on fertilizer, maybe uh uh this uh the Morocco. I think they they could announce a presidential uh waiver of those tariffs on Moroccan fertilizer. I think that there could be incentives for to uh in uh uh invest in in the US in nitrogen phosph phosphate, potash. So I think we're gonna get a series of announcements at the ag input uh level.
SPEAKER_01And Deputy Secretary Baden, he touched on that in our podcast. He very specifically touched about that, yes, there's a problem in fertilizer now, but they are working on it, and these things take time, right?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, they're really focusing on 2027 corn and soybean and other crop productions. They it's a supply issue. So now we're gonna see whether or not USDA's major announcement actually carries weight. Uh, you know, what will there be uh as I said, uh you know, fertilizer production incentives, maybe the potential creation of a strategic reserve for fertilizer. Remember Farm Bureau? Yeah, yeah, Farm Bureau, our good friend uh John Newton, I think talked about that out loud. And uh usually coordination with other agencies, commerce and energy in the permitting process. Stephen Vaden told us that they'll work on the permitting, on the hurdles and permitting, both at the federal level, and if they have to, they'll they'll call you know governors. And so I think uh this thing is coming to a head here, I think, early, early this coming week. And we're gonna see what they've been talking about internally, Tommy, here over the last few weeks. So big news, big news, I think, may indeed be coming.
SPEAKER_01Let's head out to KC.
SPEAKER_00The Kansas City Fed. I always like to include an overarching ag agribusiness kind of where we're at in the in the ag sector. And the Kansas City Fed is always a good source. And they do their they do their monthly surveys, at least quarterly. They released one this past week and they noted a big rise in operating and livestock loans. And activity rose, they said in the first quarter of this year, with large operating loans to livestock feeding operations. Non-real estate loan volumes were up 50% versus a year ago. Now that caught my attention.
SPEAKER_01What's that mean? Hold on.
SPEAKER_00Well, that's non-real estate. That means that the farmer loans, they need cash flow loans. That's the biggest rise in loans for more than$500,000. So, and that's despite still elevated interest rates on real estate loans, farm real estate values have held mostly steady. That was another key finding in that report. Bottom line of that survey: the rise in lending underscores the financial pressures building for the ag sector, and it suggests the capital reserves may just be far lower than have been indicated. That's another sign that the Federal Reserve is watching. And that was an important survey that hopefully young farmers and ranchers are looking at.
Planting Weather And Drought Pockets
SPEAKER_01Why don't you we're almost to the end, but I want you to clear your throat. I'm gonna mute your microphone here and because I know you work so hard. You uh I always you say you're a camel. I don't know, you don't get up, take a break, or nothing. This guy's something else. All right. I want to give a big shout out to the American farmer. They're good, they're stressed out, they're getting ready to plant. Now they got a different pickle that the market shot up that was good, that helped move the old crop. But now that corn's unchanged, there I think what maybe got Ron's in trouble. Um I don't know if she got in trouble, but what didn't sound right to me was she was so confident that 80% of the farmers had the fertilizer bought, and I don't think they had it all bought. And the boys and girls are getting ready to plant, and uh that brings up our next uh subject attention shift to planning and weather. Looks like maybe this war is unwinding. All eyes on planning. What are you hearing, Jim? I uh yeah, I muted you. I really nobody mutes Jim. Hey, hey, that was funny because Jim got muted. All right, we're getting ready to plant. What are you seeing?
SPEAKER_00Well, you've got the attention is shift to planting weather, but you've had more than a little rain in the corn belt, which is needed, by the way. But that means you're not gonna have active planting in in some to many of the areas. So we'll have to see if that's uh the case in Monday's crop progress report. But there's still there's a growing drought area in uh portions of the of the wheat belt, Tommy, and cotton. Oh my goodness. My good friend Tyne Morgan was down in Lubbock, I think, at a cotton meeting, and she sent me some pictures of the cotton fields, uh, just dry, dry, dry. And I did want to point out that in Monday's crop progress report, soybean planting will be reported for the first time this year.
Congress Agenda E15 Aid Farm Bill
SPEAKER_01Oh, very good. We're this is a quick show. We're getting to the a little bit to the end. We got let's talk Congress returns next week.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well, that's usually a bad news because they don't do anything. But the Senate returns Monday, the House returns Tuesday. What are the key ag issues? We still don't have language for that year around E15. Come on, okay, Iowa lawmakers, do your job. So maybe we'll see some progress on that. But I think some of the pressure has been taken off year around E15 because you'll recall the EPA, Lee Zeldon, announced the uh waiver as of May 1. So that's maybe taken some of the pressure off, but I still want to see that codified by Congress. And then, of course, then we'll get the talk on ag disaster, a new additional ag disaster and farmer aid. But where's it gonna be attached to? That's now a growing issue, Tommy, because a the next budget reconciliation bill that the Republicans are going to put together, it's gonna be very uh segmented. And I don't think it may not include the disaster aid now, maybe later on.
SPEAKER_01Is this guy heading it up?
Closing Notes Artemis And Chip Flory
SPEAKER_00Who's that? Yeah, John Holvin, he's the big pusher, along with Bozeman, the Senate AG Committee Chairman. For at least 15 to 20 billion dollars in additional farmer aid. And now we're gonna have to have ag disaster aid because I said this this drought is expanding, it's not decreasing. So that tells me it's just a matter of time before much more supported ag disaster bill over a farmer aid bill comes to pass. And then, of course, we have the farm bill 2.0, the skinny farm bill, that we'll maybe get some commentary on from the farm state lawmakers. And we still haven't seen where the Senate is going to go on their version of Farm Bill 2.0. So maybe we'll get that from uh Senate Ag Chairman John Bozeman. And the last one is USDA Secretary Rollins is going to go up on the hill to testify on USDA's fiscal year 2027 budget. That's even more important that I think she wants to roll out a number of initiatives to help the ag sector before she has to appear, Tommy, before lawmakers. So I think this is kind of connecting the dots. This is starting to make sense. So that's why they want to get some information uh out. All that is coming if in the past and in the future as we end the podcast.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, the quick show, but it makes me happy. It's a quick show. I'm not sad. That means there was less news, less drama, the world's starting to normalize. I want to give a big shout out to our premier sponsor, Trade the News. We have it going 24 hours a day. They start early on Sunday broadcasting all day, all night, trade the news. It's an audio squawk with emails and of course print, but it's a web-based thing. And I guess in the next three to six months, they're going to have an app. But I keep it up all the time. It's pumping through my house. Jim now has it, the whole Ag Bull team has it. And we we're really happy to have them on board. That's interesting how that partnership started with them. But hey, you know what? Don't ever be afraid to call someone and say, let's partner, and they were willing to do it. Take us home, Jim. You got some good news.
SPEAKER_00Well, we've got the planning, the planting time is always good news, but it's also a call to be safe to be safe when when you're when you're planting with the farm equipment. We've got the the unwinding of the spreads, you said, in the soy complex, but uh meal is having its day. We've got the decline in some of the grains, but we're still in the two season, Tommy. Too little rain, too much rain, too, too little sun, too much sun. And so we've got some rallies coming in the weeks and months ahead. So remember, you can't go bankrupt making money. So if you're above the cost of production, you may want to sell you know some of that commodities. And we still have the US-China uh summit between Xi Jinping and President Trump uh on board, yeah, May the 14th and 15th. I think that's another reason why Trump wants to clear out some of the straight-of-harmoose issues. And we at what you've already said, we could get some deliverables in the ag area out of that summit. All total in the in the meat complex. We saw uh cattle continues to make contract highs. Hogs had a little downturn, but it's they're still in good shape. And cotton, as we said, at 12-month highs. That's the best news I've had all week.
SPEAKER_01Finish it up with uh the with that uh landing of the Canadian farmer.
SPEAKER_00Artemis too. Yeah, oh yes. I just found out from my good friend uh Sean Haney that the uh Hansen, I think is his name, one of the four participants, he's a farm kid from London, Ontario. So we had an Aggie, yeah.
SPEAKER_01He's been in London before. I gave a speech in London, Ontario, right by my friend Andy, Andy Clean. He's a good man, yeah.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and he did tell me that RFD TV did a nice feature on the Canadian. So I'm I'm gonna have to look that one up and watch it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Before we close, can we give a shout out to our friend Chip Flory? And he he made a major announcement Friday. Did you see that?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, well, I knew of it. I was so busy following Brooke Rollins on Friday. I'm gonna have to watch the show, but I know that he got emotional because Strip is an emotional person. I think Friday was his last official time of doing the the PM market show under uh Agri Talk. I think it's going to go to Michelle Rook. Yeah, Michelle Rook.
SPEAKER_01Congratulations, Michelle.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and I asked Chip how long he had done it. I think he said a little over 15 years, Tommy. So that's gonna free up, I think, quality chip time to think, you know, and that's what I tell in some of my speeches. When when farmers and producers and traders go to conferences, that's a plus because why? You're having the ability to sit down and think and listen. And and so that's why still conferences are very good to for for producers and participants, and also for people like me and you, Tommy. We it forces us to think sometimes to get to the bottom line of things. But for Chip, what a whirlwind. He was on a fast doing two shows a day, Tommy. You know that's not easy. It's not easy.
SPEAKER_01No, no, he is the best in the industry. He's still in the industry. You can catch Chip and Jim and Sean on Fridays on AgriTalk AM. Chip mentioned he's gonna include more markets. He called me a few weeks ago and said I'm gonna stop the PM, but to spend quality time with his five grandkids. And with that, I look up to him. I look up to him, I look up to you. I I just I'm so impressed with how much you guys love agriculture, Jim.
SPEAKER_00Well, we we grew up actually together at ProFarmer, and uh he was uh we were a uh uh just a team for so long. I remember when Chip was a fledgling reporter on the Board of Trade when it was clearly when you were on the Board of Trade, Tommy, and had the yelling and all that. And he's come through the whole system, and I've grown up with him. So it goes deep into my heart with Chip Florida.
SPEAKER_01All right, sounds good. Jim Wiesmeyer, Wiesmeyer's Perspectives, Tommy Grassafi. We'll see you all next week.
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