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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Trump's Trip to China
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We walk through the market and policy drivers that could swing agriculture next week, from USDA May data and the wheat tour to a Trump Xi summit that may reshape demand for key commodities. We also connect geopolitics, drought, energy, and Washington decisions to the real-world risk farmers and traders manage every day.
• cotton rally context and what could extend it
• grain pullback after a strong run and why crude oil matters
• cattle and feeder cattle trend amid drought and slow herd rebuilding
• soybean oil spread dynamics tied to renewable fuels policy and 45Z expectations
• winter wheat tour focus on HRW production and abandonment risk
• Iran ceasefire uncertainty and why geopolitics now drives market volatility
• drought map takeaways for planting progress and yield psychology
• year-round E15 prospects in Congress and the infrastructure lag
• Trump Xi summit deliverables and potential ag purchase commitments
• tariff court ruling, Section 301 path, and timing risks
• tariff refunds and liquidity implications for companies
• interest rates, sticky inflation, and debt pressure
• farm aid and ag disaster package timeline and legislative vehicle questions
• DOJ action on AgriStats and what it signals for the meat sector
• fertilizer price constraints now and possible long-term domestic supply strategy
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Welcome And Where To Follow
SPEAKER_02Well, happy Saturday, and the May Days are here. Welcome back to Weismeyers Perspectives. You're listening to Tommy Grossofi on the Ag Bull Podcast, and you know that because you click the link. Thank you for subscribing. Drop us a note. Where'd you subscribe? Did you subscribe to Apple Podcasts, Spotify Podcast, YouTube? There are so many ways to get this content. Some of you are seeing the shorts on TikTok. I have a TikTok counter back there, 3,000 friends. Hey, look at that. All our social medias are at AgBull Media. Before we get into the show and bring Mr. Jim on, I want to thank, I want to thank myself, right? For Ag Bull Premium, www.agbull.com. AgBull Premium,$25 a month,$250 annually. Every single show we do and we tell you about this, we pick up subscribers. Thank you for the new subscribers. It costs 80 cents a day, and I promise you you won't be disappointed. But if you are, cancel and we'll give you back your money and away you go. With that, how are we getting all this news? The one service we love so much, it is not on today because they even need a day off. Trade the news. ww.trade the news, Google Trade the News. We are proud users of Trade the News. Myself, Jim, Joe, Jed, the whole staff. Uh we got more people coming on board here in the next few weeks, but we all use trade the news to stay up to date. It is an audio squawk service, and they are blasting out news as fast as it happens. And trust me, there's no shortage of that. All right. I think I I think that's the show, right? Hey, thanks for stopping by. Let's play a little video. Handsome alert. Mr. Jim's coming on in 30 seconds. We'll catch you on the other side.
SPEAKER_03Is there anybody there? I'm here. We only have a couple sounds preloaded. We got the train, we got the phone, and we got the police. Maybe we will use all those sounds in this show. You pick it, brother. You pick it.
SPEAKER_00How are you doing? Very good. I had four days in North Dallas, actually, Frisco, and the meeting, uh, you know, crop insurance agents, uh, which I love, who I love. It was at the Dallas football training facility, the Ford Center. And we got, yeah, there was one area where we overlooked in a meeting, we overlooked the Dallas football field. So that was kind of fun. So that was good. We had a lot of good presentations. Our our friend Paul Neefer was there, so I got to hear him and talk with him. A little bad news on Paul, his sister passed away this week. So our condolences to yeah, to our good friend Paul, uh uh Paul Neefer. But overall, it was a good meeting that I attended. A little over 400 people there on the crop insurance uh agent. So they're in a good mood because commodity prices have gone up recently and they're and they have a lot to their their clientele is farmers. So I think we're ready to go for the update, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02Okay. Did you spend any time at the grassy knoll?
SPEAKER_00No, I did not. We spent a lot of times outside the meeting going to their good meat restaurants, chop houses, and things like that. So I'm still eating, but the smaller cuts. I don't eat the the prime rib, I eat that uh smaller, drier cuts now. Excellent, excellent.
SPEAKER_02Congratulations to what you're doing taking care of your health. I uh I it's extremely, extremely important. If I could give any advice saying, young people is this there's a hundred percent chance you won't stay young forever. And if you want to invest in anything, invest in yourself because that can't be bought. Health can't be bought, Jim.
SPEAKER_00No, it can't. And they only I rarely look back on my life with a negative, but the one thing I do, I wished I would have taken better care of myself. Ditto, ditto especially 50 years of of writing, it's affected my neck. I didn't get up enough, and so crunching and writing, it it affected my neck. I'm dealing with that. Life goes on, but uh yeah, uh smell the roses, as they say, get out, drink a cup of coffee, and I think it'll be uh you know, good stead for you. On the GLP ones, I got perspective in my speeches, Tommy, for the cotton grillers. I said, I've got good news for them. I'm ordering more 100% cotton shirts. Not all I've got, still got a lot of polyesters that I have to go through. However, that's the positive news. I'm buying 100% cotton shirts for my new ones, but the negative news is I've gone from XL2 to Lars. So there's going to be less cotton used to make my shirts. So good with the bad.
Grains Cotton Cattle Quick Market Read
SPEAKER_02Yeah, the unbelievable, unbelievable here. What's going on in this cotton market? Hey, you want to talk markets real quick?
SPEAKER_00Let's talk markets, yeah. That's a good bridge to it. We had a little negative news week for corn, wheat, and and and soybeans, not meal or oil, though, but uh they've had a pretty dramatic run-up over the past uh month or so. And corn just uh corrective, uh maybe as the oil price went down, Tommy. They they're going as oil goes, right? Crude oil to a large degree.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah, tick for tick. Yeah, it's it's not even you can't even fake it.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. But uh, but wheat again, they've had a dramatic run up, but they they had the downturn. But we've got some some reports coming up that we'll talk about shortly on wheat, because we're gonna get a first survey-based estimate of wheat, so we're gonna have to come to grips with that. Cotton still had another up wheat, and I think you have perspective on cotton, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02But uh nine weeks in a row, nine weeks in a row. That's whoo. And uh, I do a video every week with my good friend Carrie Artec. He's a a technical analyst, and uh that's under the premium stuff. Uh, Carrie Artec, the charts. But he started talking about this that we had been in a big, big consolidation and watch for which way we break out. If we break out up, you want to go with it. If we break out down, you want to go with it. Fortunately, it was to the up, and that is wonderful news from for folks in the Delta. We know the I don't know if anyone took it harder than Delta folks when it came to prices of their commodities and just overall tough financial conditions, Jim.
SPEAKER_00Well, cot the Texas people tell me they need rain, they need it bad. I mean, they can count on their uh one hand how much rain that they've had uh on the days, Tommy. And yeah, but the key for cotton when we get into later the Trump G meeting coming up here Thursday and Friday this week, Jing. If they just mention cotton purchase potential, you that's gonna rally cotton because there's still a lot of naysayers out there that think that they'll include cotton in their purchase commitments. So I'm hoping that we're gonna get good news for cotton out of that concept. That would be good news. And then cattle is cattle, it went down a little bit, but uh and feeder cattle, but they're still in a substantial bull market that most of the analysts I've talked with say will continue until the end of this year. We're just seeing the the glimmings, the the beginning of a herd buildup, but not that much because of the drought. You can't build a herd when you have a 70 percent of of the cattle areas in a drought.
SPEAKER_02And a huge part of Colorado's in a drought. I know our friend uh Jed, his family's struggling from drought over there in Colorado, and I'm actually pulling up a drought map map here, and I'll pop this up here a little bit in the show. Let's check out a little improv uh show that we it's uh you're gonna be surprised what you see here in uh in this drought map. I'll have some opinions about that. Okay, hogs doing hog things. What else about this?
Why Next Week Could Get Wild
SPEAKER_00Well, the hogs were just a few days ago a little over$100. So they they've had a pretty good rally. Markets have to breathe, as you well know, Tommy. So don't get too concerned. Uh overall, the the protein complex, which is again, we could get some good news, at least for beef, out of this uh Trump and Xijing pink confab, because beef is being mentioned, that they'll certify a number of beef plants to export U.S. beef to China. So I think that's built in a little to the cattle market, but we're gonna see if they mention pork, that's a good thing as well.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, let's I want to do a little breaking news. I can't express to folks what a big deal next week is. And we got this crop report, first time looking at May numbers. We got Trump. G. I mean, next week's gonna be a flyer. We still have the Iran war situation right now. It looks calm. Right now, on Saturday morning at noon, central time, it looks calm, but all heck could break out. I know Israel was throwing some verbiage out there saying they may get her fired up again. So, folks, keep an eye on the markets next week. They may go up, they may go down, but don't say we didn't tell you, right, Jim?
SPEAKER_00True, absolutely. Volatility is going to be amplified. Bloomberg had this excellent chart, I thought, Tommy, and I'm gonna write about it later today when I come out with my updates. But Argentine soybean oil is trading at its cheapest level relative to U.S. supplies in at least a decade. Well, this data from comes from Commodity 3, but it shows Argentine soy oil discounts widen to around 44 24 cents, sorry, 24 cents per pound below CBT benchmark futures. And it had narrowed a little bit by the end of the week, but still right around 24 cents. Now, the reason is because soybean oil in the US have surged due to that uh rather robust RFF renewable fuel standard uh fuel requirements, the mandates. And then I think the market's gearing up for hopefully good news for the soybean complex whenever they come out with final rules and regulations for the 45Z program, sustainable aviation fuel. So uh, but Argentina has got their crop is, I think, based on Buenos Aires uh grain exchange, uh, produces about 48.6 million tons. And the yields I've been told in key producing areas are running above historical averages. So there's the some of the reasons for the the difference and the spread, and that's going to make their their soybean oil more export competitive. That's the market angle to that one. But we're kicking in the domestic use for soybean oil.
SPEAKER_02May 11th through 13. Our own Zachary Davis at Nasvik Trading will be out on the tour. Oh, wow. Update. So uh I'll make sure Jed grabs some commentary and we'll make sure you text him next week and we can get a little boots on the ground there.
SPEAKER_00Absolutely. And Zachary has an excellent morning report commentary. And I now and based on my age, he's a relatively young, very young person, and he's he's got potential unbelievably. I've told you personally, so he's an up-and-comer. Watch him. The tour, the tour begins and ends in Manhattan, Kansas. It's going to go through Kil Colby, Kansas, May the 12th, and Wichita on May the 13th. Traders are looking for confirmation of a smaller HRW production. I think that's very likely. And they're really going to watch out for commentary from people on the tour on how many million acres could be abandoned because of the significant drought, Tommy. And then, of course, that's going to play into it's kind of a curtain raiser for USDA's report, if you will, on May the 12th, that we get the first survey, NAS survey-based estimate of the of the winter wheat crop and the USDA's first guesstimates uh of the 26-27 corn, soybean, sorghum, and cotton. Not based on a survey, but we're going to get their their their viewpoint in the WASDI report on the 12th Tuesday.
SPEAKER_02Let me give you a little color. I didn't pop in the slides, I should have. But the commitment of traders came out on Friday. And as you know, the funds are massive, massive long in corn. I might during the show pull it up, but you gotta trust me on this. Open interest in corn is exploding, fund ownership's exploding, and yet the price of corn was down on the week. Let me repeat, funds bought a lot of corn, corn closed lower, and oil still at 95.
SPEAKER_00Folks, that means farmers selling.
SPEAKER_02Yes, yeah, definitely. Farmers selling, farmer hedging. All the crops hit a five, D 26 hit a five, D 27's above five, all the marches and mays for multiple years above five. There is farmer selling or put protections or some form of a derivative that's keeping people in the game here uh with the floor, or there's call by. I mean, you know, good perspective. Good perspective. Yeah, there's all types of things going on. So just keep an eye on open interest and fun position. Let's get back to the show here. So we're done with the wheat.
Iran Ceasefire Doubts And Oil Impact
SPEAKER_00Absolutely, wheat. And then we we have Iran is always in the news, and they're calling the current situation a ceasefire. I think you got to put quotes around ceasefire because we've had both uh Iran and the U.S. have fisticuffs in the in the battle still. And I will tell you, Saudi Arabia and some others, some of the hawks in the U.S. and some Trump people are worried that Trump may be giving too much to Iran. They think that Iran is playing us along again, as they have had so many precedents over the years. That remains to be seen. At least Trump has a blockade going over. And he thinks that's the that is the the best strategy because it's really cutting into Iran. They're not making any money, they're loaded up on uh they their lack of storage to put their oil production. If they close off their oil production, they're afraid with the ancient equipment that they have. Well, they have trouble, you know, getting it back in production levels. And the U.S. is still waiting on Iran's response to the U.S. one-page 14-point proposal. It's very typical to Iran to stretch things out, Tommy.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, they're not.
SPEAKER_00Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, said Friday. He said he said they were gonna respond on Friday. Well, I I didn't see anything.
SPEAKER_02I didn't see anything. Yeah, no. Boy, Mark Rubio has a lot of jobs, doesn't he, Jim?
SPEAKER_00He does, and he's doing most of them exceedingly well. And I think he's gonna be one of the top two going into 2028 elections with uh JD Vance, but he's uh very experienced, very well liked, and is disciplined and and knows how to handle the press. All those are are are very good traits, and he's a diplomat, he's not nearly as antsy as as President Trump, so he's very smooth in the in the domestic and the international arenas.
SPEAKER_03I'm dying laughing back here. You remember during the debates when he told Trump he had small hands?
SPEAKER_02Little, yeah, little little Marco, little Marco, you think Marco's watching the Agwell Podcast? If you are, Marco, we'd love to have you on because we know you have time to watch, right? Oh, this man works hard. I'd vote for him.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, he's very he's very good. He's he's the statesman that I think, frankly, that I think the country is waiting for. So we're gonna see. We'll see. All right, but so bottom line on what you just said, too. This Iran it's not uh off the charts, and you can see it in the oil. I mean, every other day, it depends. They're trading geopolitics, they're not trading totally fundamentals in the oil market, and the grains you have to watch the Iran war because they're closely allied to the geopolitics now. So that's why we're covering geopolitics as much as we do.
SPEAKER_02Absolutely. You know what my screens look like when I'm watching the markets, Jim? The second the markets open, it looks like this oil, crude, corn, beans, wheat, copper, gold, silver, NASDAQ stock market at all-time highs, SP stock market all-time highs, 401ks turned into 501k, 506 Ks. And I'll say it, I'll say the pri the quiet part out loud. You may not like President Trump, but you can't say he hurt your retirement account. You may not like what he's doing in the world. Your feelings may be hurt, but your retirement account isn't hurt.
SPEAKER_00The financial markets are trading peace, they think peace is at hand. We're gonna see. We're gonna see if that's the right, the right strategy. Next one, and I think we've covered Tuesday, the first NAS survey-based estimate of winter wheat. USDA's I call them guesstimates of 2026 crops. Remember, we get spring wheat estimate in July.
Drought Map And Planting Reality Check
SPEAKER_02Yeah, they'll come out with that in a little bit because that's just getting planted still. I popped an improv drought map in. Look at that drought map, Jim. What do you see there when we talk to that cattle country?
SPEAKER_00Look at that. That's dead, right? That tells you why we're not going to have a significant herd rebuilding right there. How do you rebuild?
SPEAKER_02Look at that Nebraska red, Colorado red, darker shades of red, Texas has some problems. The whole southern look at Florida.
SPEAKER_00This is, I think, the driest Florida has been in decades.
SPEAKER_02Is that right?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, yeah, and it's affected really big time citrus area. I had a I had an item on that uh Friday.
SPEAKER_02Let's talk about where they grow corn. Yeah, Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Uh open. Look at how open they're in there from dryness. I was doing my states. I got to count on my I had to take my shoes off. Michigan, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota. They're gonna have the irrigators on in uh Nebraska, that's for sure. I states now I am here in South is dry. Tennessee uh farmers are starting to complain about that, but that might be, Jim, why corn was down seven, eight, nine cents. Yeah, because crops are getting planted, aren't they?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and once it goes after what's the rule of thumb? I used to be a market reporter after 50% is planted, then uh then you gotta look at the demand more because you start penciling in certain yields.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you can't say you killed it all, right? No, you you can't you can't trade planting delays if you don't have a planning delay. That's what I'm trying to say. Go ahead.
SPEAKER_00True, true. So watch for Tuesday. We're gonna see where you're gonna get the confirmation of this lower winter wheat yield and how much of that uh of those winter wheat acres are gonna be abandoned. That that's your big key right there. And July brings the spring wheat survey, August brings the corn and soybean crop survey. So we're we've got several months to go before we get a real significant snapshot based on actual surveys of uh of the of the major crops.
SPEAKER_02And I'll I'll add a little color to that. Although these uh reports are super, super, super, super important, they're taking a backseat to geopolitics. Iran, war in oil, number one, Trump tweets, Trump True Socials, number two. Yes, the USDA is going to release this data, but private folks already have this data, Jim. They know how much is planted, they know what the weather is. The private data and the AI are kicking the internal data at the USDA, but because they get it faster, they digest it faster, and they can trade off it faster. I always feel that the data the USDA gives us is old data. Thoughts on that, sir.
SPEAKER_00Well, it's confirmation maybe of what we're hearing. Industry people can can do a crop estimate every day if they want to. USDA does it once a month, but it's still a snapshot, and USDA has shown they can surprise on acres. Even the private industry has a hard time on the number of acres planted, as we've seen over the past year. And it took USDA uh too long to come up with what uh eventually was the uh corn plantings, but the private industry didn't catch that at all. So they're not perfect, Tommy, but they've got the tools that they're working on. USDA is playing ketchup now to trying to use some of the similar tools that some in the private industry are using. So I think hopefully they'll get better in the next year or so.
SPEAKER_01We'll have to load up a graphic of a bottle of ketchup.
SPEAKER_03So we have you just spit up your water on the show.
Year Round E15 Vote Watch
SPEAKER_02Listen, hey, uh, remember that song The Boys Are Back in Town? Yeah, there the boys are back in town else. Yeah, oh yeah, somebody I don't know. Don't I don't want to play jukebox, but let's read the headlines. Number six Congress returns Wednesday, dot dot dot, year round E15 vote in the house. Talk to me.
SPEAKER_00Question mark. The question mark, because remember after they after the house passed. The Farm Bill 2.0, House Ag Committee Chairman GT Thompson said we're going to have a vote on year-round E15 by, I think he said by May the 13th. Now, I would never bet totally on any date from Congress, let alone the House. But we're waiting on the bill language still, Tommy. I want to see the bill language. People ask me, will it, if it comes to a vote, will it be approved? Well, my bias is I think it will be approved, but I still want to see the bill language to see if they've dealt with some of the small and medium refiners, because that's what's kicked it off the path before. And we we need E-15. Uh, we need, and but you got to remember this is not mandating E-15. A lot of people don't understand that. This is just making it available. And as we keep on saying, I think some in the in the biofuel industry is oversold short-term E-15. You you still need it, but we have about 145,000 stations in the United States. Only about 4,500 stations currently carry E-15. And that's primarily concentrated in the Midwest, Iowa, Minnesota, etc. But that's not totally negative news. The other states are waiting legitimately for Congress to codify the year-round E-15. So they're more confident to invest in the pumps and the wells in order to offer E-15. But even if and when they do, Tommy, it's going to take a while to implement that infrastructure, let alone dealing with the varied uh regulations that the different regulations, and I think they might vary. Every of our 50 states, I think, have different regulations on E-15, and some local areas have even additional regulations. So what I'm telling the listeners and the viewers is that question some of the more optimistic analysis of people who say this is the next big slice of bread for the corn industry. It's needed, it's needed, but it's going to take a while to fully implement to get that boost in the demand for corn. Okay. So we're going to see. And also the House Rules Committee has to, I think, has to have another rule in order to bring up the E15 legislation because if it passes, and I think if they bring it up for a vote, Tommy, in the House, that means they have the votes.
SPEAKER_02The reason. If they bring it up, they have the votes, right? They're not going to take it in to fail.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, absolutely. The whip count will show they have the votes. Then they're going to attach it to the already house-passed bill. Now then that means it still hasn't gone to the Senate. A lot of people have seen uh stories written, oh, if the House bill had now been sent to the Senate. I'm not so sure on that one. Number one, it takes time to enroll the House bill with all the amendments. And the second one, I think they're holding it back to layer in this E fit this uh year-round E15. Then they'll send it to the Senate. So we're gonna see. We've got several hurdles to pass. I want to see the actual language of the bill, but if it's flexible at all, that deals with some of the concerns that the small to medium refiners have, then I think the votes are there to pass it.
Trump Xi Summit And Ag Deliverables
SPEAKER_02Well, it'd be nice. All right. Number seven, talking about next week being a big week, Thursday, Friday, Trump. Gee, summit in Beijing.
SPEAKER_00This is big. Both of the presidents want this summit. You have about a hundred people on each side, Tommy, that's been working on getting the background and getting this meeting going. It'll be in Beijing. Trump likes uh pomp and circumstance, and I think G will give it to him. We've had U.S. trade rep Jameson Greer talk about the ag sector in the U.S. is going to like some of the news coming out of this. I hope he's right there. We call them deliverables, Tommy. That's where they can announce the the what they have decided on. And it looks like there will be, I don't know whether there'll be actual purchase commitments uh by Tunnage. You know, Senator Moran is one of the senators that went over there to China this past week, actually this week. And I think he actually mentioned there'll be specific purchase amounts. If that's true, wow, I want to see what the totals are. But Greer and others have gone out of their way to say it'll be things other than just soybeans. They want to spread it around. Beef, he's mentioned beef, and he's mentioned other agricultural commodities. Let's hope it's sorghum, let's hope it's corn. And as we mentioned in cotton, I know the cotton lobbyists that I talked with uh for uh over several dinners in Texas this past week, they they uh stressed to me that they've told uh Greer that they really want him to help push U.S. cotton sales to China. So if they mention cotton, that's gonna be good news. And I think it'll be a market factor if he does. Now, the other deliverable is it looks like there's gonna be a big Boeing aircraft uh sale. We've seen that in other summits between Trump and Xi Jinping. We have to just see follow-through on that one. But the other key is what does Xi want? And and China has clearly signaled it's Taiwan. He wants to basically a firmer a firmer commitment is no change in U.S. policy towards uh Taiwan, that uh China that it's not an independent state or country, it's part of China, and the second one is their discussions regarding the war with Iran because it's starting to hurt China, who gets a significant amount, I've heard different you know, numbers, anywhere from 60 to 90 percent of their oil from Iran. So Xi Jinping uh needs a settlement of that uh war with Iran as well. So all this is writing on these talks, and let's hope they go through, and I think that they will, because if if that's uh postponed again, again, which I don't think will happen, that would be negative news in the uh in the ag complex if that were to develop. But I think they're further further and uh fur enough along that they will have that confab. So a lot of a lot of people are saying it won't make major news, but for agriculture, no, there's big news coming. Right. We'll we'll be dumble ears listening for those purchase commitments.
SPEAKER_02It's interesting. I was listening to an ag show this week, and the host who will go unnamed kept asking every single person on the show what percent they thought China would do, and it's a dumb question. I'm gonna tell you why. Only two people in the world even have a clue Trump and G, and they don't even have a clue. Yeah, and and so it's a silly question to ask. It it's a loaded question. It's a when did you stop beating your wife? You either stop beating her or you're still beating her, yeah, but we don't know. And as market experts or someone like you who's the dean of agriculture, if I ask you what percent you think it's gonna happen, it's a silly question.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, and it's my personal opinion. I mean, I can have the thoughts, but like you said, I'm not gonna make it. Nothing to back it up. So I ask it, right? I'm not loading up the uh the the jet fuel in order to send or are not loading it up to send our our our president over there. Yeah, I I hear you. I hear you.
SPEAKER_02That's why I like shows like this, because at least we could tell you we don't know and not feel bad about it.
SPEAKER_00But educated guesses, but you saw how I caved it. I'm not going to be shocked if it's postponed, but I do think that'll happen.
Tariff Court Loss Refunds And Rates
SPEAKER_02A lot of things could happen. I mean, these people around the world are the world's unstable right now. Speaking of around the world, let's bring it back home to America. Number eight, another negative court ruling on Trump tariffs.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, this one comes from the CIT, as we call it, Court of International Trade, in a narrower vote ruled against uh the proposed blanket 10% tariffs. Now, once I dug into that, it did raise it raises new questions about Trump's the presidential authority on on tariffs. But I this thing I think was overblown, this decision, Tommy, in my judgment, based on my contacts, because they're going to Section 301 and other tools that that they're they've already announced. And and this case that that they ruled against the CIT is really going to work itself out by July because you'll have challenges to this. I don't know whether the White House is going to challenge it, but they can delay some of the implementation. This is just not going to stop them. And I think once they start announcing more and more Section 301 cases, I think that has better, more significant legal uh background and support in legalese for them to use Section 301. So was news. It's another blow to the Trump trade agenda, but I don't think it has staring staying power because the White House has other tools in their arsenal to implement the trade policy they want. It's just a little messy, and it takes a little longer to do. That's the bottom line.
SPEAKER_02Excellent. Number nine, tariff refunds begin.
SPEAKER_00Yeah. May the 12th, the first electronic refunds are going to begin arriving, and that's the what they call the CAPE refund program. The White House has spent a lot of time, the Treasury Department, on this refunding, because that was initially came, recall after the Supreme Court ruled against the IEPA. And we're not going to go at what does IEPA stand for? That was the major tool that the White House Trump used to initially justify those April 2nd last year tariffs. And the Supreme Court ruled against it. And that's why they went to other trade tools that the CIT found wanting. And now they're going to Section 301 and other aspects. But this could provide liquidity injection to some sectors that were squeezed by the high financing costs, volatile freight markets, and elevated input prices. In the number of earnings reports, I actually listened to some earnings calls like GM, Ford, etc., and they both mentioned uh the refunds coming that that's going to help their bottom line in the quarters ahead. So this is a market impact for certain companies.
SPEAKER_02I uh I gotta bring this up one more time. I'm just looking at a tweet while you're talking. I just want to I gotta read this. This is wild, folks. Next week's a big week. This is next week's schedule is crazy. Monday, Walsh becomes Fed chair, Tuesday, CPI April, Wednesday, PPI April, Thursday, retail sales and Trump flies to Beijing. Thursday, Friday, Trump G summit. Week ahead, I ran ceasefire status unknown. And then, of course, these people didn't tweet or X about the uh USDA NAS data survey again.
SPEAKER_00And Walsh is Fed chairman, the current chairman will stay on as a Fed governor, okay? Jerome J. Powell, that's Walsh. And the the the market we had an employment report, jobs report Friday, and that showed again the market underestimated the number of jobs, but that that just made almost 100%, nothing's a hundred percent, that you're not gonna have any interest rate changes for the foreseeable future. It shows the US economy is uh resilient, as the word goes, and but you're not gonna increase interest rates like some chatter has has indicated. Inflation is still sticky, and we have to they have to get the inflation down. The electricity prices, not gasoline prices, what average a little over four dollars and fifty cents. That's starting to cut. That is starting to cut into consumer expectations and buying patterns. So we're gonna have to watch inflating. Bottom line, it uh higher interest rates for longer.
Farm Aid And Disaster Package Push
SPEAKER_02That's a tough one. That's a little hidden. That's a cancer in uh anyone carrying debt. It is a quiet, it it can disable you quickly. Number 10, more ag disaster in FarmAid. Uh Sarah John Hovind out of North Dakota.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, I listened to John Hovind. He gave a virtual speech to the CEPA group in Texas. Yeah, and he signaled a coming package that he hopes to help push through with Bozeman Senate Ag Committee Chairman of around$17 billion. And this is really, yeah, that this is really a supplement to the farmer bridge payment program that Congress thought it it wasn't enough. So this will be it's supplemental. That means they really want those payments. Number one, if they can find a legislative vehicle to put this on to have Congress approve it, because the administration won't. So it and there also be an ag disaster that takes the 2025 ag disasters we've had and the 2026 fires and crop disasters, a drought and the fires. And I think Financial Times had a story today on Saturday saying this will be record number, uh record year it looks for fires. And so Congress is going to wrap these things together, but the unknown is what what is going to be the legislative vehicle? Maybe you can go on a standalone, especially in a in a in the with midterm elections company, or they could put it on the farm bill, they could add this to the farm bill. Oh, yeah, that's a possibility. And then I don't want to get too wonky now, but if we have it's your show, get wonky. Another budget reconciliation bill number three.
SPEAKER_01Okay.
AgriStats Case And Meatpacking Scrutiny
SPEAKER_00The other one, we've had two, one last year under the big one big beautiful b uh bill, uh the OB3, and then this year uh the$72 billion really looking on homes homeland security funding. And the the debate is whether or not you have a third one dealing with affordability issues. And then if they do have that one, are the votes there? That would include uh some some other things like tax, uh, some more tax relief, some more farmer-friendly things, child care tax credit, things like that. But the the the verdict is still out of whether or not they're they can even attempt that one. But bottom line, farm state lawmakers are going to push by August, by the August congress long August congressional recess to get this done. So between now and August, at least, that's the timeline for farm state lawmakers to get an additional farmer aid package and an ag disaster package. That's the best we know now. Of the$1 billion farmer bridge payments, remember we've had most of them paid out already. Uh of the$11 billion for row crops, and and they're almost done with that one, Tommy.$1 billion for specialty crops and sugar has still not been officially detailed. That could come this week. So that's another thing to put on this week's uh high issue agenda. Uh the key there is payment rates. Some of the specialty crops I think are going to like what they hear from USDA on the payment rate levels that includes potato producers and and the specialty crops uh in the edible bean area. And because I asked a USD official, are farmers going to like what they hear? And he told me yes. So we're gonna see if that's the case. So we're uh you know, stay tuned. That's all we know. 12 is we had an investigation announced, another investigation announcement at meatpackers this past week. Uh, and the DOJ announced a uh a case against Agstats, uh AgriStats. And they're they're a firm, you know, based in Indiana, that uh they give benchmarks, Tommy. Okay, that give meat companies detailed near-term uh insight into competitors' pricing, inventories, and production levels. Now, Department of Justice officials argue that system covered most of the U.S. meat industry. Okay. 90% of broiler chickens, turkey sales, and roughly 80% of pork sales. Now, under the settlement that was announced this week, agrastats must sharply limit the pricing and plant level data it distributes and provide broader transparency, in other words, give the inf also information to grocery retailers and restaurants. Now, to be fair, agriStats denied any wrongdoing and said its reports were designed to improve efficiency and benchmarking, not to facilitate collusion. And this is why this case is being closely watched across the whole ACT sector, because we have similar benchmarking systems widely used in livestock fertilizer, grain and food processing industries. So this is an important topic to watch for. As far as meat packers themselves, most of the people tell me uh we've had these investigations under Obama, Biden, and now Trump several times, Trump 1.0, and now Trump 2.0. It's easy to announce an investigation of meat packers, it's hard to prove it.
SPEAKER_02That's interesting. And Jim, everyone's got a big four. I mean, the airline's got a big four, the meat's got a big four. There used to be a big seven or eight accounting. There's like big four rule of four. Rule of four. Is that a thing?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's the rule of four. Yeah, and that any major industry usually goes down to three or four. Look at the automobile industry, and then you had a maverick come in, Elon Musk, because he had he had uh entrepreneurship, and that's how you break into any industry. You have a new product that the conglomerates don't have, you're gonna add to that uh industry's flexibilities. And yeah, we've had uh the same, almost the same percentages in the meatpacking industry, not for years, Tommy, for decades. So I think this is a if there if if if any wrongdoing can be proved, so be it. But let's see the proof. Let's see the proof. All right, okay.
SPEAKER_02We got some fertilizer news, number 13. That's another big one. Let's see the proof that fertilizer prices are coming down. I'm gonna go full screen on this because you got a lot of talking points. Stages yet.
Trump Lula Meeting And Beef Access
SPEAKER_00Yeah, the witnesses that we're gonna have a hearing, Senate A committee, on Tuesday afternoon. I think it's gonna be late Tuesday afternoon. Now they're gonna have Andy Green, he's a uh principal at center market strategies, and he was in the he was in the Biden administration at USDA. I find that interesting that he's gonna be witness. Uh, we're gonna have the president of the South Dakota Corn Growers, uh Trent uh uh Kubik, Eddie Melton, president of Kentucky Farm Bureau. So they're spreading the perspective. Scorey Rosenbush, I met, spoke at his association's meeting fertilizer institute, and he's gonna give the industry perspective. And Joshua Wesling, he's the CEO of a firm based in Omaha, Nebraska. But let's hit the bottom line. They're kind of they're gonna hear what we've been discussing for weeks now. Uh, there's very little short-term that the government and others can do to really deal with the sky high prices, it's a supply problem. And it's also a Mideast problem because so much much of certain products, urea and and and other products, come through the Strait of Armoose. Yeah, you you knew it, Tommy. But longer term, you can deal with it. And for the first time in years, I'm hearing a legitimate long-term strategy that that will take years, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't do it. Lay the groundwork now. What does that mean? It means a combination of grants, that means money, it means loan guarantees outside of USDA's loan guarantee program that the co-ops in the industry says is just too cumbersome, so they need some other approach for loan guarantees because companies, the board of directors of companies need some backstop because it costs so much money and insurance to start a new fertilizer plant in this country, Tommy. So they have if they had a combination of grants, loan guarantees, now you're starting to talk. But and and uh Brooke Rollins recently had EPA administrator Lee Zeldon, she had Interior Secretary Bergum, and she had uh Kevin Hassett at the National Economic Council all over, and they talked about what could be done, but they didn't announce the biggest thing that they're working on. And this is what I'm telling you. They're just about to announce it. Howard Lutnick is the commerce secretary. Got him up right here. He has a program called Investment Accelerator. Now, and you remember Japan and South Korea have pledged billions of dollars to invest in America, America first. Some of this could be potential investment in fertilizer facilities. Or if not, there's programs. Even when Biden was in, USDA, then USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced almost a billion-dollar program to do some of the things we're talking about. He just didn't segment on the larger uh fertilizer companies who could get ready ready to go. They went uh shatter uh to the lower uh uh new startups, but they take years. So, and now you have the Trump administration pointing fingers at established U.S. fertilizer companies where to have any odds that you're gonna have a successful long-term strategy, they're gonna have to be part of the process, Tommy. Right or wrong, you're gonna have to have them part of it. And I think there's a billion-dollar program announcement coming. Actually, it should be multi-billion to be serious about this. So I think once they get the sign-off at the White House for this loan-accelerated program, then you're gonna put some meat on the bone, as we say. We're getting near the end. Trump met with Brazil's president Lula this week. They decided they discussed, cussed and discussed some issues. It was interesting, they didn't have a joint appearance that you could see both presidents at together. I found that interesting. They've decided that they still need some work on a number of issues, so they're gonna divide up into working groups to discuss those issues, and they're gonna get back within 30 days. So we've got more to say in the month uh ahead on this one. Now, the Brazilian beef industry lobbied Lula to push uh Trump for an increased uh access to the U.S. beef market, principally the hamburger market. That there was no deliverable on that uh in this week's announcement. That doesn't mean it wasn't discussed. I know Brazil is pushing for it, but the market aspect of that, even if they got it, Tommy, it won't amount to much because the tight, the tight that we saw that with Argentina. Remember when we quadrupled their access to the U.S. beef market? And yeah, psychologically, it was a market factor for one or two days, but then the underlying fundamentals of the tightness in the beef uh market played itself out again, and that's why we had continued record prices after that Argentine announcement. So we still don't know whether or not the White House is going to okay additional uh beef market access to Brazil, but Brazil is pushing it. That's all I have to say on that one.
SPEAKER_01Very good.
SPEAKER_00Last yeah, this is a local. I live in Virginia, I'm a Virginian now, the Commonwealth, by the way.
SPEAKER_01You like that?
SPEAKER_00Are you glad to be from Virginia? I love Virginia. I originally from Illinois, and I still have a lot of people there, but I don't like the way Illinois has gone since uh since I left.
SPEAKER_02There you go. No ego there, just the state went to hell after Jim left. Holy cow.
Sponsor Thanks And Next Week Preview
SPEAKER_00Well, they're losing uh there they may lose some the the uh bears to Indiana. That tells you all you need in Illinois. But anyway, the Supreme, we had a a referendum earlier, uh not too long ago, in which we voted on under a rather dramatic Democrat-pushed redistricting plan. Uh uh Virginia has 11 representatives, state representatives for the House. Right now it's six uh Democrats and five Republicans, but their redistricting plan was at the last minute, it would have made 10 Democrats and one Republican. And so then it was uh it was put to a court test, and the state Supreme Court rejected it, and it surprised the Democrats. They said it was not constitutional based on the hurried-up process that the Democrats used. Now, the that really surprised the Democrats. Now, they say they're gonna appeal, but this is a state issue, and if it's gonna be hard to even appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court if they don't have a state angle. So it's gonna be curious in the days ahead, what do they use to bring this at the federal level so the Supreme Court could actually hear the case? There's a lot of naysayers that say nothing's gonna happen with this, it's dead in the water right now. Now, the bottom line for politics, this is gonna help the Republicans in the House midterms, because even though some Democrats, I think, are gonna win a couple more races in Virginia, they're not gonna get the four seats that they would have made up as a result of redistricting. And now we have a number of southern states, mostly controlled by Republicans, are are gonna probably have changes to their redistricting. And I think we have a map, we have a graphic, yeah. Gerrymandering. And we checked in, Tommy and I did some research, and the word gerrymandering, I love words. How did words originate? This comes from Representative Jerry in 1812 in Massachusetts, was the first one to want redistricting in Massachusetts, and the result of the process in Massachusetts looked like a salamander. So that's gave that's where the word gerrymander comes from. Bottom line on this whole redistricting. You saw earlier Trump gave the word to his party, redistrict, because we need some of more votes, and he got them in Texas. You saw California uh went uh uh all holds barred on to get more Democrats, and they succeeded. Florida now is taking the process to get additional Republican seats, and and I said a number of other uh states, primarily tilted on the Republican side, are going to go the same route. This, the election gurus, at least that I monitor say this doesn't uh signal uh for sure that the Republicans are going to retain control of the House, but it will likely narrow the spread that the Democrats could have had with most of them predicting the Democrats are gonna regain control of the House. In other words, if they do win, by no means an assurity. But if the Democrats do get control of the House, it'll be by a narrower majority because Republicans are gonna gain some more seats as a result of the redistricting that we've seen. That's that's the election angle on that one, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02Very good. Before we get to the end, a buddy of mine called before we started, and I want to wish David, Mr. Dave Fike from Bowden, North Dakota. He called, I called him, wished him happy birthday. Happy birthday, Dave. He is out planting crops in North Dakota. The weather's turning around. As you see, folks, we looked at that drought map, and it's gonna be a lot of planting here in the next few weeks. We wish all our farmers and ranchers safety. Uh, real quick before we end the show, thanks to our sponsors. That would be me, www.agbull.com. You can find all Jim's content on there for free. And then, of course, we have our subscription model too, where you can find all the premium stuff. Folks like Paul Nefer and others will all be part of the premium package. Of course, thank you to Trade the News. If you'd like a free trial, trade the news, go to trade the news tom the Ag Bull Boy sent you. And you'd like a free trial to trade the news and audio squawk service, not only for professional traders, but it's for anyone, and it's affordable. It'll give you, I believe, the edge you need to uh battle these markets. All right, stage is yours, full screen on Pop Bear.
SPEAKER_00Well, we're good. I do want to add in we had a special report out that I wrote that's on AgBoMedia during the middle of the week from Dr. Bart Fisher. He's a good friend of mine. He used to be the House Ag Committee's top economist. Now he's a Texas AM with a high-level position. He's one of the smartest people I know, despite his relatively young age. He gave the best, I think the best farm policy speech I've heard in my 50 plus career at SEPA. And we detailed, and I mean detailed with charts and everything else, what uh Bart gave 11 recommendations on what he sees as the new road ahead. It should be for farm bill, for ag disaster, for payment limits, and other things. And it's it's on the Ag Bull media site. There's more than a few discussions of his payment cap ideas on X, Tommy. I don't know whether you know that. I mean, there's been a I didn't know that a volatile discussion, which I always think is good. So if you didn't get it, go to Agbull.com and look under, and they have it on there. If not, just email me and I'll make sure that you get a copy. Other than that, as uh Tommy said, we this is a blockbuster week for potential market-sensitive news. The war with Iran, the uh wheat tour, USDA's NAS report on winter wheat, plus the WASDI report from USDA on supply and demand. Yeah, and then we have the Trump Xi Jinping uh uh conference. So gamut of of volatile of potentially volatile market moving issues, and we're gonna be covering all of them.
SPEAKER_02That's a rap sports fans, Mr. Jim Wiesmeyer. You've been listening to Wiesmeyer's Perspectives here on the Ag Bull Podcast. I'll see you next week, my friend. Yes.
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