AG Bull
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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
AG Bull
Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | War UpDate
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We catch up on a wild week where commodities react to shifting weather, tight livestock supplies, and nonstop geopolitical noise. We also lay out a surprisingly bullish cotton roadmap, then zoom out to the policy and rate decisions that shape what farmers and traders do next.
• Weekly moves across grains, livestock, and softs are viewed through fundamentals
• Bullish cotton balance sheet driven by polyester disruption, tighter stocks, and policy support
• JBS plant closure as a signal of a historic cattle shortage and lower slaughter capacity
• Iran uncertainty and why oil markets struggle to trust timelines and headlines
• New World screwworm case count, monitoring challenges, and the USDA response
• 45Z GREET model update and what it could mean for corn, soybean oil, and biofuel investment
• US ag trade deficit improving on lower imports, exports still the challenge
• FOMC setup and why higher rates raise the cost of storing grain
• USMCA leverage talk, what the US, Canada, and Mexico each want
• Midterm election forecast and how control of Congress could shake out
Tell the boys at Trade the News the Agbull boys sent you, and you want a free trial
Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.
Welcome And Birthday Headlines
SPEAKER_01Welcome back to Agbow Media. You're watching We see Myers Perspectives. Interesting week. Markets are moving. We had a SpaceX IPO. Elon Musk is now worth $1.2 trillion for you home gamers who are keeping track. We have some birthdays to talk about. A couple people made a trip to the hospital this weekend and much, much more. Stay tuned as you're watching. Tommy G, Jimmy W on a special birthday edition here of Wees Meyer's Perspectives. Look at this. All the graphics department went crazy. Happy birthday, my good friend Jim. If you're out there in the internet world, on Monday, 6 15, we have a birthday. I tried to age him, but he says he's 78 years very young. Let's bring in the star of the show, Mr. Jim himself here. We'll give him a big birthday clap. I wish I had some birthday music, but uh we just didn't have time. Happy birthday, my friend.
SPEAKER_00Well, thank you. And I'm going to send Xi Jinping, China's leader, happy birthday on mine. Hopefully he'll return the favor. I'll tell you if he does.
SPEAKER_01And I believe El Presidente, uh our president has a birthday today. Uh Donald Trump. Happy birthday, Mr. President. Uh whether you love him or hate him, today is his birthday. And with that, I think they're doing wrestling or something at the White House.
SPEAKER_00UFC. Yeah. Yeah. Big, big, big event. I mean, this uh you'll it's it's only Trump could do something like what's happening. And this weekend, the New York Knicks uh won the NBA crown since uh for many years.
SPEAKER_01Uh Bill Jackson, the former coach of the Bulls, a uh by far one of North Dakota's most famous people ever, was on the team back there in the early 70s. Woof, that's aging us.
SPEAKER_00Well, the Knicks had an exciting team and showed that no matter how many points they're behind, they can come back, and they did.
SPEAKER_01They they did do that, Jim. We have an exciting team, you and I, and we're expanding that team, and we'll uh be announcing that tomorrow. Real quick note here as we get in the show. I I was on a really cool podcast, Jim. Did I tell you I drove out to Iowa and I met with the farm for profit boys? I went out just north of Ankeny, and that show is going to be released Monday. So if you're out there on the interweb and you want to talk about a podcast, you think Jim and I can go along. We went an hour and 50 minutes, Jim, and they didn't get all their questions to me. I guess I guess I could talk a little, huh? Hey, enough about me. Let me tell you about me a little bit, right? Welcome to the show. Well, let's get to markets because uh you built this show and you built the doggone good one wild week here. And although compared to past weeks, these numbers
Weekly Market Moves In Context
SPEAKER_01aren't as intimidating. Take it from the top, sir.
SPEAKER_00Well, they're not not they're not all negative like last week, although corn we've gone from a just a month ago. Remember, we were we had bullish weather outlook, and now we have bearish weather outlook. So corn's uh taking continued hits here, as well as soybeans. And look at meal down 720, but oil's holding in there for a host of reasons. Wheat is maybe finding a low. We're gonna see. Possibly.
SPEAKER_01I mean, yeah, we did. We we for the week. I like that we're doing you know, change from the week before, weekly change, everything else that it it brings what you do so well, that perspective of what really happened. Going down the list, spring wheat was down a little bit. Cotton, cotton just just back down to the lower 70s. That's uh not good for the cotton folks. And you you spoke to the cotton folks in Vail, is that correct?
SPEAKER_00Yes, the American Cotton Warehouse Association and Vail, and what a nice group. And I know uh so many uh couples in the cotton industry, so it was always good to see them. Uh, they had a number of good speakers, of which we'll detail two of them. They actually had an analyst that we're going to detail the next item that was bullish on cotton, and I'll give his reasons. I thought they were spot on, and then my friend David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report gave an update on the midterm elections. I think that's our last item today. But overall, I'll tell you, I love Vail. It was good weather, cool when it needed to be, warmer when it needed to be. I didn't have any altitude problems because the the pill that my doctor gave me worked. So I had a good time in Vail.
SPEAKER_01Excellent. And I just this is so stupid, but I gotta, you know, I'm silly. How'd your joke go from your 2XL shirt to your 1X? You get any laughs?
SPEAKER_00Yes, and in fact, a cotton producer said, Well, there's actually a positive to that, even though your your shirts are gonna be it mean less cotton, you're gonna have to buy a lot more new ones. And the audience clapped. So I promised them uh the next shirts I will buy all 100 cotton. I have a few of them, they're harder to find.
SPEAKER_01I can order you some from the old Ag Bull Media TV. 100.
SPEAKER_00You gotta go 100 cotton.
SPEAKER_01Can't guarantee they're made in America. That boy, but we're gonna try. I know our flags. Uh, we're we're mailing out the flags before uh it's funny.
SPEAKER_00Live cattle were down, but look at feeder cattle, they're coming back up again, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, there's we're coming in the Father's Day, we're coming in the Fourth of July. This fourth of July is gonna be every fourth of July special, especially if you love America. Even if you don't love America, you got to eat that day, right? Yeah, you want to starve yourself? That's fine in in protest, but it's uh it's a lot more fun to have some beef or pork on hand. Real quick note I did go to Costco uh yesterday with my parents, and uh they're a couple years older than you, and we picked up a fillet, a prime rib, and a couple pork loins, and the the bid ass spread between the pork was maybe a dollar something a pound, and all the beef was on sale at Costco. These are prime prime cuts, great price, but you're still buying a lot of it, and you know, you spend a lot of money on it. I'm not complaining, I think our ranchers deserve every penny they get. Uh, there's a big uh debate between this constant shift of the Packers are making too much, the ranchers are making again. No one should be complaining. Well, in a and that's what makes democracy, and that's what makes a market. Some people make, some people lose. You know, as compliance says we need to stay in fair and balance, but there's always someone complaining, Jim. The screens from the screw worms really throwing a wrench and things, and we'll talk about that a little bit more. Should we get into the uh guts of the show? Let's go. You're ready. All right, second slide, bullish cotton forecast.
SPEAKER_00This was an analyst, Chris, and I'm torturing his last name, but uh
The Bullish Case For Cotton
SPEAKER_00from Aegean, I think, from Metal Grove Research. I'm telling you, if you have a chance to get his stuff or listen to him, do so because he puts together a good package on Outlook. He knows cotton. He's from Lubbock. And bottom line on his forecast, Tommy, the balance sheet is bullish. I mean, where when have you heard that lately in cotton? Because the current effects on supply and demand are bullish, he says. Now he detailed some of the reasons why. Polyester, this cotton is one of the few ag commodities that's actually been has had a positive impact on the Strait of Harmuz being basically closed. Why? Because it boosted cotton's competitiveness because as higher crude oil prices and disruptions to Iranian and Venezuelan oil supplies raised the synthetic fiber production cost. Now, synthetics are cotton's major enemy, and they've been the thorn of discontent for decades. And China's polyester industry is under pressure with operating rates now below 70%. That's reducing the synthetic fiber output, and that's improving cotton's relative value. Cotton demand is gaining from fiber substitution, and Meadow Grove, that's the group he works with, estimates an additional 500,000 bales per month of global cotton consumption due to polyester disruptions. His bottom line again, world less China stocks are falling, cotton demand is improving, and policy, weather, and fertilizer risk all point towards tighter supplies and stronger demand. So the world cotton balance sheet is tightening with 26-27 global mill use projected to exceed production, and world ending stocks expected to fall by five and a half million bales. US ending stocks are projected to fall to 3.7 million bales with a stocks-to-use ratio near 27%. And that's historically supportive of prices near 80 cents per pound. Now we bring in China into the equation again. Their yarn import yarn, Y-A-R-N import surge is indirectly increasing global cotton demand, adding about 1 million bales of cotton consumption through imported yarn. So policy support is also strengthening demand prospects for U.S. cotton. And that includes, and we've talked about this, USDA's Great American Cotton Plan. That's where uh USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins says uh plants, not plastics, America, not Brazil, and the Buying American Cotton Act, and a proposed Section 301 textile carve out that favors U.S. cotton purchases. Adding if you want near 85 cents or above cotton, potential China trade agreement and reserve buying in China could provide another significant demand catalyst for U.S. cotton and the El Nino weather pattern raises production risk for foreign competitors, including India, Australia, and potentially Brazil, and that'll tighten global supplies further. So global fertilizer shortages are threatening the southern hemisphere cotton production while the U.S. remains relatively insulated due to domestic production constraints. So uh I thought that built a pretty good case for uh strengthening cotton prices, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, the uh time will tell, right? We got slide number three. We're moving right over to cattle. Number three, JBS closes Pennsylvania beef plant and historic cattle shortage.
SPEAKER_00Yes.
SPEAKER_01A lot of talking points here,
Cattle Shortage And Plant Closures
SPEAKER_01Jim.
SPEAKER_00You had me well, let's just bottom line it. Okay, you want bottom line? Yeah, he they closed the VL the plant and and uh how do you pronounce it, Souderdon?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I'll let you do the pronunciation.
SPEAKER_00Okay, and they also they also closed a protein package facility in Memphis.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_00Now they're as we've seen, they're pr they're shifting the production to other JBS facilities to optimize operations. It it just just reflects the cattle uh shortage and tight supplies. But this plant in Pennsylvania, while relatively small for the ag sector, it was one of the largest beef facilities east of Chicago. They the kill capacity was about 2,000 head of cattle per day. About half the cattle, by the way, processed at that plant was trucked in from Iowa and Canada. Really? Yeah. The facility employed about 1,700 workers and uh nearly 1,500 jobs. So that's what's always the impact there. They they're affected by the you know closure. The reduced processing capacity will increase uh transportation cost for producers, it's obvious. And JBS said it expects cattle supply tightness to persist into 2027 and beyond. I want to repeat that into 2027 and beyond. So we're gonna have a relatively tight uh cattle market for a while. Tyson and Cargill, if you recall, have also reduced processing capacity recently. So fewer plants could limit marketing options. That's never good. And but competition for cattle will keep that bid price up. And this just screams, Tommy. The industry is entering a period of structural adjustment with lower slaughter capacity. Now, there was a big discussion late this week on what this means for the potential of bringing in cattle into the United States in finished product. That means we're gonna possibly increase our beef imports from Mexico and Canada and other countries. That'll take some time, but I'm telling you, this is the one of the structural uh impacts that we're gonna monitor in the in in the next few years. Bottom line.
SPEAKER_01And we'll talk a little bit more uh later in the show about our friends Canada and Mexico. And we do do an incredible amount of uh commerce with uh both of those. Interesting times in cattle. Initially, the uh market sold off, it then rallied back. When you read these lines, none of this is like bearish, bearish, bearish. If you were bringing, if you lived on the east coast and you're bringing cattle, or if you worked at this plant, this is devastating news. But when you think about why they're doing this, that it's because the the the cattle just aren't there in these areas, Jim, right?
SPEAKER_00Yes, absolutely. So while initially you the the market has reacted on the new world screw worm for initially bearish, but now it's it's seen as neutral to bullish because of the tightness of supplies. And it it could it could morph into something different if if these cases uh really start expanding again in in a in a more accelerated fashion. But right now it just reeks of tight, you know, tight supplies, and these the existing kill facilities are having to bid up their price.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. Let's get into slide number four. U.S. war with Iran update. And I think you'll have some interesting spin on this.
SPEAKER_00Who do you believe? What do you believe?
Iran Uncertainty And Oil Watch
SPEAKER_00And when are we going to get confirmation? Trump kept on saying all this week that wait until this weekend, we're gonna have an agreement. And now this is Sunday. Where's the agreement? Trump has has been more optimistic than others again on that. Iran is saying the isra Israel attacks on Lebanon uh breaks the ceasefire again. So that's their excuse, maybe, not to sign this agreement. And even if an agreement does come, Tommy, details are important, such as when will the Strait of Harmuz open? Under what under what clauses? Will any Iranian assets be unfrozen? If so, when? In other words, how much money are they gonna get and and when? And are more talks ahead for enriched uranium to get it out of Iran? Very likely. And how long are those talks gonna last? And I say that'll be minimum 60 days. And Iran says that's probably too too short. The reason I say that, Tommy, is and I'm blunt on this one. Any any additional talks with Iran, especially on enriched uranium, is exactly what Iran wants because you think they're gonna follow through on that? They have 47 years of saying something and not doing something. And this is why even repo the hawkish Republicans in in Trump's party are saying you better be careful uh and not extend these talks much longer. So we're gonna have to see if we have a signed agreement. If we don't, the reasons why Trump will be angry at Israel, uh uh, and that's already uh cleared in some of his his messages, but you don't tell Israel what to do. So Trump can bully a lot of people, but not Israel. So, bottom line, what I'm telling you on Iran, it changes almost by the hour. And so I don't uh I don't like to give it too much space, other than stay tuned because if you read something, it'll change in an hour.
SPEAKER_01Sounds good. And this was filmed at uh four o'clock central, five eastern markets open in one hour here in Chicago, and we'll see what they do. We'll see what they do. Crude oil. I did see in northwest Indiana, Indiana did lower a bunch of taxes on fuel. I bought some gas for three to ten.
SPEAKER_00Wow. That's good. Yeah, it's it's actually three eighty something, three seventy out here for for, and well, that's pretty good for out here in the east.
SPEAKER_01Illinois almost 75 cents higher than Indiana. We did something with our state taxes to get it down. It's it's noticeable. And if you can just make it over the border and fill up your tank, especially if you're talking something about uh like a semi or something, it's uh definitely worth uh historically historically been the case between Illinois and Indiana and Illinois and Missouri.
SPEAKER_00It's called Illinois policy.
SPEAKER_01Oh, I know, I know. All right, number five, new word squirrel worm. I think we'll go over this pretty quick, but uh, you do have some specific talking points about this.
SPEAKER_00And yeah, we have 12 cases now, so they're going up. Aphys has confirmed
Screwworm Cases And USDA Monitoring
SPEAKER_00cases in Texas and New Mexico. Confirmed cases that include cattle, goats, and a dog. No confirmed cases yet reported in wildlife or feral animals. We've been talking about that. That's the next major uh potential step in this one, if it's found in those wild boars, feral pigs, by the way. USDA is exploring the use of drones and artificial intelligence to enhance detection and monitoring. And it was a big topic, this NWS, for Secretary Rollins at both the House and Senate hearings this past week and from both Democrats and Republicans. They want they wanted more information whether previous early Trump administration cuts in APHIS hurt hurt detection capabilities. She answered no, but this issue is not going away. It's going to linger for you know, you know, with us for a while, Tommy. Bottom line.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. Let's get back to just talking about a little bit about the show, how we put things together. Of course, this show you can find on all platforms. Jim, I didn't tell you this, but I added this
Where To Watch And Premium Updates
SPEAKER_01show. Of course, it comes out on Apple verbally, Spotify, you know, through the headphones, but I added the video component of this on Spotify. So if you were watching us on YouTube before, but if you have Spotify, you can now watch We Smeyer's Perspectives on Spotify or listen. Pretty much just search at Agble Media, you could find it. But the two best places to watch this currently are YouTube and then Spotify. And pretty soon Apple will be introducing video, and the world of media is just changing. If you think about when you were a young man, golly, do you remember the first time you guys started using video? I mean, there was always like a farm show on Saturday, but by the time that data was put together and that farm show was released, a lot of times that data was stale, right, Jim?
SPEAKER_00Yeah, including remember the Iowa show market to market. I guess it's still on, but that that was sometimes dated in the early in the early days. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01Well, I mean, that's the beauty of doing this. I mean, we're recording this, but we can go live if we so choose. And if news broke tonight, I could say, Jim, I'm sending you a link. We're going live on five different platforms at once, and it wouldn't look or sound any different than this. And the thing is, Jim, is that people want to they want to choose what platform they watch it on. I cut the cord last year, I canceled direct TV. I still pay a ton for different services. It's just that my internet, you just choose an app and go to your app of your choice, and uh that's pretty awesome. Let's take a break and talk about premium content this week. Our friend Paul Neefer is going to be coming on. You'll only be able to see that now on the paid service. $25 a month, $250 annually. Pay for the whole year, get two from two months free. Paul be on this week, of course, every single morning for premium contributors. You get before the bell with Mike Sands. That's a five-minute audio video clip of the fundamentals of cattle. Mike is the best in the industry. I put my money on it, MBS research. He just comes at it fair and balanced, and he just goes over the facts like an old uh old-fashioned reporter. He just gives you the facts. He may hurt your feelings if it doesn't meet your bias, but it's not because he he's not gonna lie to you. Matter of fact, he he starts some pretty good arguments after that five minute clip with some of the uh folks internally. So www. AG Bull.com. You can get that. We'll have uh Carrie Artec doing charts. We'll have Paul Nefer. We have some other uh special guests this week. I think we'll do the land talker and all that's on the premium side. All right, with that, we are being fed news all the time. How do we here at Agbo Media, Agbo Media, and my team get news? We use Trade the News. The Trade the News boys were plopping out all types of information last week. Uh we're moving at the speed of light, or as they call it in DC, Trump speed. And as fast as these cases and everything else are coming out, a screwworm or anything else, imagine having an audio service that's just talking all the time. Of course, they're putting out data and research and everything else. I know Jim uses it. Myself, Jed, Joe, the whole team here at uh Ag Bull Trading AgBOL Media use it. Tell the boys at Trade the News the Agbol boys sent you and you want a free trial, and they'll be happy to do that. They were poof, those boys work as hard as you do, Jim.
SPEAKER_00They do, they do a very good job. And it's my signal sometimes that uh when they break the news with the headline, I just go out and chase it. So yeah, it's it's a topic uh leader for me a lot during the week.
SPEAKER_01Really uh like that partnership with them. We have a few more partnerships we'll start to announce in the next few weeks, but uh let's get back to the show. Yeah, we want to do that.
SPEAKER_00I do want to say one thing on Paul Nefer. He's the only tax guy I've ever liked.
SPEAKER_01Well, that is a statement, I guess, and a fact right there. All right. Let's go to number six. And we had all types of numbers and letters here. I didn't know if this was put in Greek or what are we talking about up here?
SPEAKER_00It's the
45Z GREET Model And Biofuel Demand
SPEAKER_00Greek model that tends to be Greek to a lot of people, but uh the Department of Energy, late Friday, they uh love Friday announcements, announced another piece of the 45Z, that's the sustainable aviation fuel puzzle. They released their updated what we know as the 45Z CF GRET G-R-E-E-T model, and that provides the carbon intensity framework for the clean fuel production tax credits. Now, the lower carbon intensity scores carry greater value after the removal of indirect land use change. That's the ILUC penalties. Only feedstock source from U.S., Canada, and Mexico qualify, and that's going to eventually boost domestic crop demand. That's the ingredients for a higher corn and soybean market ahead. Biofuel, ethanol, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel industries gain long gained long-awaited certainty for some of their investment and production decisions in this announcement. Because the updated model could strengthen demand for corn and soybean oil while improving biofuel economics. But here's the big one that we're we're we're still waiting on the biggest uh you know piece of the puzzle, Tommy. Final Treasury regulations and USDA's feedstock carbon intensity calculator is pending. And so we really need those to really push that pencil. But at least this shows that the Trump administration is working on trying to get this settled finally settled so we can so we can figure out the program, whether it's going to help or hurt.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, a lot of this is like the gift that keeps giving, but it that you never get it, right? Everything's always, and I I said this when I was on with the boys at Farm for Profit Podcast, which is released again on Monday this week, is everything in this menstruation, there's some really great stuff that's always gonna happen three months from now. I'm really seeing that pattern, Jim, because when you and I talk on this show, if you could just wait three months, there's something great that's gonna happen. Yeah, sometimes it's true, sometimes it's not true.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, it's like fertilizer prices, it's like gasoline prices, it's like additional farm exports as a result of the renegotiations of agreements. Yeah, I I I hear what you're saying.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, let's get in the next slide here, and lots of a tight show today, but uh to the point. We don't need to put in a bunch of filler here. Number seven, U.S. ag trade perspective.
SPEAKER_00Do you think that's yeah, report came out this week? It showed
US Ag Trade Deficit Reality Check
SPEAKER_00actually the ag trade deficit is improving, but it was mainly due to lower imports, not exports for ag products. April exports fell 10% to uh just a little over $15 billion. Imports were down 4.5 percent to 17.9 billion. The April trade deficit widened to 2.8 billion from 2 billion in March. The expected fiscal year 2026, that's just this year's you know fiscal year that began last October trade deficit is about $29 billion versus the record $43.7 billion in fiscal year 2025. Let me repeat that. That's why this is improving. We're coming off a record $43.7 billion trade deficit with this now uh current estimate of $29 billion. Some of these Trump tariffs may be contributing to the slower import growth, Tommy. And USDA expects imports to rebound somewhat in the coming months. So we we could see that trade deficit expand again because South American competitors continue gaining market share. Bottom line, smaller deficit is positive, but the export growth remains the key challenge. We've got to get farm exports continuing to grow.
SPEAKER_01Absolutely. I couldn't say it better, my friend. Number eight, FOMC meeting, June 16th, 17th. That looks like that's this week. And I do have some other news about this week. We do have an abbreviated
Fed Week And The Cost Of Carry
SPEAKER_01week. We will be closed on Friday for June 19th, Juneteenth. That is a national holiday, and so we're gonna have a short abbreviated week in the markets. With that, you know, these three-day holidays when we come into uh grain trading, that's just that much more time that something could happen geopolitically or something could happen in any way of the markets, and it's always makes for some interesting times, Jim.
SPEAKER_00So uh yeah, it's uh the closes on Thursday will tell you the gut check of where traders stand, but then like you said, what happens during the long holiday weekend, that's why you have volatility sometimes on the re on the on the on the return of trading.
SPEAKER_01So we have this new Fed chairman, Warsh. I haven't heard much, I haven't seen much about him, or you know, maybe I guess he's just been in for literally a week.
SPEAKER_00So let's not uh well he's probably been studying up, you know, because this uh Wednesday, they'll start Tuesday, the federal open market committee meeting. And I'm not gonna go out on a limb very hard. It's a sturdy limb, as we call it. They're not gonna change interest rates. But the key is what is the Fed gonna say about forward guidance? That means for the months ahead, will it will it signal just no change in rates or will it change or will it signal a possible increase in rates? I doubt if they say cuts now, like they did before. And we're gonna have to see Kevin Warsh has criticized the Fed's forecast in the past. So we're gonna listen at his press event. We call it a presser on Wednesday because this will be his first one. How does he handle it? He wants to be a more tightened press than uh Jay Powell was, and but inflation remains sticky, in other words, four percent or higher. So it doesn't give him much wiggle room to even suggest lower rates until they come down. And we've talked a lot about over the years on their dot plot uh uh graphic, and I don't think Walsh likes that. So the questions are gonna be uh will he continue those? I think he said, I think he believes Federal Reserve officials talk too much. So it'll be curious if he even mentions that during his press conference. So listen to what he says because no change in rates is very likely decision.
SPEAKER_01Watch those yields, twos, fives, tens, thirties. During that podcast, again, I keep referencing it, but jeepers, we talked for two and a half hours. They said, Tommy, what's the number one thing that's affecting agriculture and grain marketing? I said, it's higher rates, it's the farmer losing track of just how much money it costs to store millions of products and not move it. Every other business in the world knows if they produce something and shelf it for nine months, that comes at a tremendous cost. Now, there is carry, there is basis appreciation, and all these other things, but you need to figure that in. And of course, it's always a lot easier to do looking through the rear view mirror, woulda, shoulda, coulda. With that, back to the show. Let's go to number nine, Trump.
SPEAKER_00Yeah, gonna be a little hard here, but I think I'm right. President Trump uh mused about
USMCA Leverage And Trade Stakes
SPEAKER_00not extending. There's there's my misspelling with Tommy. He caught a misspelling. I have I fixed it though, right? Yes, yes, he could affect it. Yeah, we all need editors.
SPEAKER_01That all happens once in a while. Yeah, of course.
SPEAKER_00We all yeah, we all need editors, but he mused whether that the US may not extend the USMCA. And that's mainly leverage. But he also said, quote, and this is basically a quote, we get nothing from Canada. That's wrong. He said, we get nothing we need from Mexico, that's wrong. So why is Trump saying all these things? It's leverage, leverage, leverage, get over it. So the outlook for the USMCA, come July. This is we're not gonna have a finished renegotiation. They'll extend it, they can extend it for years. We're not gonna get rid of USMCA. Does it need improvement? Anything does, ourselves included. And all three countries have their wish lists. The U.S. wants to get at some of the end arounds in Mexico of how China is getting through their cars into the United States. That'll be constricted somewhat. There's some fruit and vegetable things that the U.S. growers want out of Mexico. There's labor issues in Mexico. As far as Canada, Aggies uh want one thing beyond all others in their dairy, their dairy policy in Canada. So those will be cussed and discussed in the months ahead. So, bottom line, the North American market is not going to go away, despite all the hubbubs that you hear from President Trump on this issue. Bottom line.
SPEAKER_01Interesting. We have some breaking news coming out, but uh, let's get the slide 10. And the markets aren't open yet. So it'll be interesting to see how they take this news. I'll read it to you here in a second. Let's uh finish up the show here with number 10 forecast for November 3rd, midterm elections. This young man Wasserman forecast. Wasserman
Midterm Map And 2028 Rumblings
SPEAKER_01keeps coming up. He's a leader in the industry. Do tell about our friend there.
SPEAKER_00Oh, well, he's my good friend, and he was out in Vail, so I had a good chance to talk to him. He gave a presentation. And his bottom line first, and we have it, Democrats win the House narrowly. Republicans are gonna hold the Senate narrowly. 50-50, he said. That means J.D. Vance would break ties. And as far as the 2028 presidential fields in both parties, he said they remain highly fluid. He's pretty smart because a lot can happen. Now let's go in that was the headlines. Let's go into real uh details for the House outlook. He said Democrats are narrowly favored to regain the House majority. He said the GOP redistricting in the Texas, Florida, and the South could add for the Republicans five to six seats. So that means the Democrats are gonna likely need a net gain of eight to nine seats after the redistricting efforts. So that's why it there's gonna be a narrow spread, narrower than what Wasserman thought before. The key battleground states for the House are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. Those are the four battleground states he said. He also said the high number of Republican retirements creates additional opportunities for Democrats. That was his House forecast in a nutshell. Now for the Senate outlook, he still is still thinks that the Republicans are favored to retain Senate control, but he projects a 50-50 Senate split. And when that happens, the vice president uh casts the tie-breaking votes. I will tell you, in April, I was with uh uh David in Southern Virginia, and his his count then was 5149 uh for the Republicans. So he's narrow he is narrowing the spread for sure. He said the Democrats' best pickup opportunities are in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio. That means Sherrod Brown could win against Housted. That's interesting. North Carolina is for sure gonna be a Democratic pickup. Maine, you've seen the the battle to take on Susan Collins, the Republican. The Democrats, he says, are projected to fall short in Texas, Iowa, and Alaska. But I would watch Iowa. I if if the Democrats are telling me this is their year in Iowa, and we're gonna see. They've got some pretty good candidates in Iowa, but the Republicans do as well. So that you're gonna have a lot of money for Iowa being spent in Iowa. Texas, as far as I'm concerned, depends on the Hispanic vote. That remains the key. Which party are they gonna vote for? The overall Democratic chance, Wasserman says, of the Democrats winning the Senate majority, he puts it 35% to 40%. So that was his Senate outlook. For president in 2028, the Democratic primary, he said, will be one of the most crowded in modern history. In other words, a lot of would-bees. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Brescher are seen, he sees as strong general election contenders, but they're mainstream, they're somewhat mainstream Democrats. Now, on the on the not so mainstream is Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. And Wasserman views her as a rising force with the strongest favorability among democratic activists. Now, will ALC go for the presidency? He's not sure, but he said she will pursue a higher office in 2028. Potentially, the Senate contest against the sitting minority leader in the Senate are a presidential bid bid. That's uh Chuck Schumer in on the Democratic side, or a presidential bid. Now I know ALC would bring in at least 25% solid core Democrats to vote for her. And if you think back to when Trump uh first started running in the 2016 election, that helped all those Republicans who who wanted to run against him actually helped Trump because he had a 25% or 30% block of voters that he still has, by the way, who would vote for him no matter what. And ALC could have the same thing. So if AOC runs for president, she she would probably be put as probably initial leader in the Democratic Party. On the Republican side for 2028, Wasserman said Trump's endorsement likely determines the nominee. He said VP JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are the leading contenders for Trump's uh backing. So that's the latest from one of the best election prognosticators I know, David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I like him. He's going to be on the uh premium show here, I guess, too, in a few weeks as we get through the fourth. Speaking of the fourth and the fourth of July holiday, the breaking headline was, and I don't know if it's so breaking, it was just uh retweeted, but it says Pakistan's prime minister
Peace Deal Rumor And Market Trust
SPEAKER_01announces that the U.S. and Iran have officially reached a peace deal, and the official signing will take place on June 19th in Switzerland. That would be Juneteenth here now, which is a holiday. So the markets will be for the most part closed. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Leman, he says. Now, we've read chatter like this before, and I I I got a bad sneaky suspicion they could go sign something like this, and next thing you know, Israel and everyone else is fighting with everyone as if it didn't happen.
SPEAKER_00And well, let's put perspective on it. As we said during the podcast, Trump earlier in the week, throughout the week, said two days, two days, or this weekend, this weekend, and this weekend comes, and then did they sign it with Invisible Inc? You know, it's just every time you get to that sarcasm there. Yes, that's sarcasm.
SPEAKER_01That's sarcasm on your birthday.
SPEAKER_00It's called Trump No, the birthday's tomorrow, so I can be antsy the day before. Every time we get to the date at which they say something's gonna happen, it it it um it melts like but etch a sketch, it's just etch a sketch. You shake it and it changes. I'll believe it when I hear it, but I want to know the details of this because this tells me uh Iran is saying no uh to some of the terms. So uh we're gonna see. We're gonna analyze this thing respectfully when they uh when both countries, Iran included, put out equal language that agrees with what the US is saying. Until then, now it'll be curious to what the market reacts tomorrow because during the week oil went down a lot because they thought they believed the president that oh, this weekend we're gonna have the signed agreement. Now we're gonna see.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we'll see how uh energies open up, how stocks, bonds, gold, and everything else. Sounded like Tom Cruise there. You can't handle the truth. Now you said you want the truth, and then he said you can't handle the truth. One of the uh greatest scenes in all of cinematic history. Speaking about the truth, can you handle this, Mr. Jim? Look at this right here, folks. If you go to www.i-e-s-e-m-e-y-e-r.ag,
Links, McConnell Update, Final Takeaways
SPEAKER_01you can catch all the stuff Jim posts. Uh I know uh a lot of you are on his list, but if you missed it or you want to go back on a story that goes to Jim's page on agbol.com. You go to weesmeyer.ag. But it's gonna get better. It's gonna get better in about a month or so, right? Yeah, we have some things we're working on on getting out each of those stories, and you put out a lot of content, and you're gonna you're gonna tell us here at the agbol media team, hey, I put out this stuff, but these are the five most important things I think people need to know about today, and we'll we'll have the shorter versions of those stories, and they can copy them, paste them to friends, and send it to them. And you know, Jim, I I think as the world moves along, I think they're gonna see, I think we are gonna teach a an older dog how to do new tricks, and I think the way you put out media and the way you distribute it is gonna change. I don't want to speak for you, but I can say from a technology way, we're going to really, really, really get up to speed. And we got some exciting things coming down the pipe. Before we get to the end of the show, and we are at the end of the show, we did have some breaking news. Mitch McConaughey, Mitch McConnell is in the hospital. That's the second time this year. You could add some color to that. Of course, we want to thank the the good folks with the cotton people that you visited. Of course, we got to thank our friends at Trade the Farm, not Trade the Farm, Trade the News. Trade the News, you know, they're pumping us with information. I have trade the news on my left and I'm reading headlines right now.
SPEAKER_00But uh Mitch McConnell, uh a farmer Senate majority leader. His principal, I think he's had more than a few achievements, but his principal one was uh getting Supreme Court uh nominees through. In fact, he stopped one from happening until Trump became president. And and he's more of a statesman in the party right now. Uh he doesn't get along well with uh the president right now, but that's uh he did before. But he's had a long, illustrious career, and I wish him good health. He's been failing health the last few years, but yeah, this is the second time, so let's uh hope he gets uh you know better and can and he announced his retirement, so I hope he can he can go into full uh retirement with far better health, Tommy.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, just doing a little Google, Mitch McConnell is 84 years old. He was born on February 20th, 1942. Uh, that's a that I gotta tell you at some point it's okay to retire, right?
SPEAKER_00Yes, yeah. But I want to end it on a positive note again. Look, listen to what we said again on cotton, because that bullish outlook has similar ingredients that other commodity are gonna have between now and the end of the year. Those are the ingredients: domestic utilization, trade policy, uh, tighter uh uh supply and demand situations, tighter ending stocks, etc. Those are the ingredients for a higher, if not bullish market in the months ahead.
SPEAKER_01Sounds good. Mr. Jim, happy birthday. A pleasure to work with you. And from all of us here at Agbo Media. If you know Jim, you know how to get a hold of Jim, send him an email. It's always nice to hear on your birthday. I'll just give him your cell phone number. Just kidding. See you, buddy.
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