AG Bull
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Tommy Grisafi is the main host and content creator for Ag Bull Media.
The Ag Bull Podcast showcases agriculture's top talents in a long-form video format. The Ag Bull Trading Podcast is a deeper discussion of trading with analysts and key players in agriculture nationwide.
Futures trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
AG Bull
Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | China Has Promised Beans And Now We Need Proof
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We run the markets live as we talk, then connect the day’s price action to the policy and geopolitical signals shaping ag right now. Soybean oil strength, China’s buying pace, and the next wave of RFS and 45Z all point to a summer where demand and rules matter as much as weather.
• soybean oil rally tied to renewable diesel capacity and RIN signals
• cattle on feed reaction and the idea that supplies stay tight
• used cooking oil and shifting incentives as future RIN rules change
• Iran diplomacy and shipping risk showing up in crude and freight
• China soybean commitments versus the weekly export sales proof test
• Screwworm case count, port closures, and why it supports cattle
• Senate Farm Bill 2.0 rollout, markup timing, and election calendar constraints
• 45Z tax credits, carbon capture, pipelines, and regional basis winners and losers
• year-round E15 still lingering and likely tied to a bigger bill
• USMCA review leverage and why the pact still matters for ag trade
• USDA 2027 cost of production outlook and pressure from non-energy inputs
• Kevin Warsh’s Fed posture, inflation priority, and what less guidance means
• Why fund participation creates liquidity and better price discovery
You choose your favorite platform and make sure to click, like, subscribe, and give us a rating. Who would you like me to talk to? You can reach us at agbol.com, hit the contact us tab, and my people will get right on it.
Futures Trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past profits are not necessarily indicative of future results/profits.
Weekend Recap And Big Announcements
SPEAKER_02Welcome back, everyone. Tommy Grissaffi, Agmo Media. You're listening to Wiesemeyer's Perspectives. Well, it's Monday. What the heck happened? We had Friday to record. Saturday, Sunday. I'll tell you what happened. We had a wonderful day off. I ran some errands. Saturday, I spent the day with the family. I could think nothing more important to do. Sunday, I spent the day with my father, and that's important. When your dad's 85, you got to tell Jim, I don't think I can record today. I'm having too much fun watching it rain. Speaking of rain, holy cow! Where I live in northwest Indiana, Valparaiso, Indiana, it is wet. I traveled from northwest Indiana all the way down to like Kinkakee, Illinois. I went to a little city, Piper City, and there's water everywhere. Now, soon all those holes will fill because from the road, in a few weeks, all you're gonna see is green. All right, with that, I don't know what other news, except for the while we're recording this, the markets are open. So you're gonna see a little different feel. Oh, I do have news. I have to welcome our newest member to the Ag Bull team, Mr. Davis Michelson. He's been with working with us for a couple months, and you're gonna see a lot of Davis here in the next few months. He'll be recording an afternoon show called Ag Squat PM with Mr. Davis Michelson as host. He'll also be recording a lot of premium content. And that brings me to, and I hate to do it, but I gotta sell because if you want the premium stuff, if you want the good stuff, it's $25 a month, $250 annually. There is a video Davis already did that was with uh Paul Nefer. That's out there publicly. You can get that. And I do have more breaking news, and I'm super excited about this. The Ag Bull Podcast is now on video format on YouTube. Can you like and subscribe, please? Apple, like and subscribe and give us a rating. Spotify video, video on YouTube, Apple, Spotify. We don't get to choose where you go. You choose your favorite platform and you make sure you click, like, subscribe, give us a rating. That sure helps us, folks. I can't tell you. It lets other people know that this show is worth watching. I was up late last night getting Davis and Mr. Paul Nefer's show is on Apple. It's the first one loaded. And I also, my daughter Gabby, summer intern, uploaded the last 10 or 12 gyms. In case you ever missed one, you want to see his pretty face. All right, with that, I'm talking too much and the markets are open. I'm trading, I'm clicking buttons. I'm gonna do the best thing in the world. We're gonna have Jim talk throughout the whole show and I'm gonna hide him back. Everyone, get ready. It's Monday. Markets are open. Let's go. Yeah, a little country western. We got both types
Soybean Oil Rally And Market Drivers
SPEAKER_02of music here. Take it away, Mr. Jim.
SPEAKER_03All right. Had a good weekend myself, got uh my Kohler walk-in bath installed in my master bath, and I'm very relaxed.
SPEAKER_02You'll be crawling in that thing. You won't be walking. Who are you kidding? Let's get to the markets, my friend.
SPEAKER_03Sure. You saw last week, look at the weekly changes. We had a mostly an up week soybeans, uh, corn. Look at soybean oil went down, but we're kind of roaring today, right, Tommy?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, absolutely. Soybean oil as we speak is up on the highs, up 154 ticks, 7125. Markets are open while we're recording this, my friend.
SPEAKER_03And the reason why we have that sharp rally in soy oil, analysts tell me that followed last week's uh late in the week, EPA's may uh rin uh renewable identification number generation data. And it underscored Tommy's uh growing concern that renewable diesel production isn't keeping pace with the finalized uh renewable fuel standard requirements. So that means to meet the EPA's new mandates, utilization rates are likely need to approach 90% or higher for an extended period. And they're I think at around 65% right now. That's the market talking right there, and that's the reason why.
SPEAKER_02Let's move down. We have our our grains. We did have a cattle on feed Friday, Jim. And Mr. Mike Sands says that was pretty bullish. I listened to, and if you're not listening to, you should be on the premium side every day at eight o'clock. Mr. Jed Sidwell at 7 45 gets Mr. Mike recorded. And every day before the markets open, we have before the bell subscribers only. Mike Sands, that's a five-minute cattle video. Well, Mike flat out came out today and said the there's just not enough cattle. That number was bullish. Now, markets had an interesting reaction. We gapped open higher, we made new highs. Live cattle traded up uh 300, 350. Feeders were up six, and of course, we have those new extended limits with that. Hogs are on the struggle bus. I did see on my ticker back here though that hogs are trying to make a comeback, and we'll see what happens there. I have a question for you. Are you in charge of stupid questions today?
SPEAKER_03Absolutely.
SPEAKER_02All right, stupid questions. When I was a kid, my mom and dad owned restaurants, and we used to take the oil from the fryers and put it in the back dumpster, and my dad would get a check for a couple dollars. But how much of this used oil stuff is still figured into this, or is it a very small percentage?
SPEAKER_03I don't think it's a small percentage. In fact, beginning in 2028, uh used cooking oil, etc., and other foreign oils are going to get 50% rins. So I think you're gonna see an increase short term here, but that's not stopping the soybean oil market today.
SPEAKER_02No, the uh the soybean oil's definitely taken over. Let's go to slide number two and get into the show.
SPEAKER_03Iran. You know, if you don't like the developments in Iran, the talks, just wait an hour and it'll change. That's what it taught me over the
Iran Talks, Shipping Risk, Crude Oil
SPEAKER_03weekend again. But we've got relatively good news that both countries agreed to a 60-day roadmap toward a broader diplomatic agreement, Tommy. It produced the most significant progress in months, and that's saying a lot between the U.S. and Iran. The focused areas continue to be on the Strait of Harmuz, security, Lebanon tensions between Israel and Lebanon, nuclear negotiations, and sanctions relief. That's a bailiw.
SPEAKER_02Can you say nuclear like George W. Bush used to say it? Nuclear, nuclear, nuclear, yeah, nuclear. Yeah, I miss him. I do, I miss that guy. Hey, speaking of George W. Bush, he was in Chicago yesterday on my way home. I drove by the the President Obama presidential library. And contrary to what you've been hearing, like, oh, it's an ugly building, it's pretty cool, Jim. I drove right next to it. There was a line around the door. And if you're ever in Chicago, I think it's gonna be worth a visit. I'm gonna let the lines calm down a little bit. I've never been to a presidential library, I'm sure you've been to a couple of things.
SPEAKER_03Oh, several. Yeah, more than a few.
SPEAKER_02You're gonna build your own here because you are the dean of agriculture. You know what I wanted to do?
SPEAKER_03I don't think it's an ugly building myself. I just like different arc and it's different. It is different, it's albeit.
SPEAKER_02It's pretty cool. I gotta tell you, we drill by them like I'd like to go someday. It's right half hour from where I live. I've never been to one. What I did want to tell you was I like your blue shirt, but that needs uh that needs we got to get your logo. We're getting uh Eggbull uh Wiesmeyer's Perspectives logo made.
SPEAKER_03Send them out here. I need them.
SPEAKER_02Do you think we could sell shirts? Do you think people will buy your merch? Like, hey, how does Jim make money? He sells merch here on the podcast.
SPEAKER_03All right, back to Iran. So talks this week are gonna be mainly technical levels, so maybe we'll settle down here. The market is telling us what's happening, Tommy. Brent crude is easing. I don't know what the current prices are there. It's down a couple of dollars, 78, 77. Yeah, and so they're viewing the talks as lowering near-term supply risk, and shipping traffic is improving. It's not totally open, but it's opening. And the the uh big thing is that the Joint Maritime Information Center, G J M I C, they lowered the Strait of Harmuz and Gulf of Oman threat level to moderate. Why is that significant? It lowers the cost of shipping through the strait, and that's just another signal that you can check off that this thing is is on its way to normalizing, not there yet, but we're moving from a crisis management toward gradual normalizations, and that's not a bad thing. As far as agricultural exporters and fertilizer importers, they'll benefit from those lower logistics uncertainty, but it's going to take a while to really get that fertilizer tonnage going again. That's what the fertilizer institute said Friday.
SPEAKER_02That's good news, Jim. And you're seeing that I'm trading WTI as we speak, it's down two dollars, trading 7380, down two dollars. I want to go to the back months, folks, like towards harvest, uh, November 71, December. You know, they're all pretty much in the lower 70s. That curve's really straightened out, Jim. Let's go to number three. China rumors purchases. What do you know?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, first on on the oil. The last one, I like to watch Brent because that's the international fuel, and that's what the traders,
China Buying Rumors And Export Pace
SPEAKER_03that's how you can determine geopolitical risk. So that's why I also always want to do uh the uh Brent. China, they've recently bought some U.S. beans. Now what? You know, now they're returning to the market this week. They fought that's following the Dragon Bolt Festival holiday. That's why I think you didn't have a daily sales announcement today. Traders are watching for new purchase announcements. China has pledged to import about 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of this calendar year. Their estimated buying pace needed, if they're going to fulfill it, roughly 1 million metric tons per week. So that's that's why the daily export sales are going to be closely monitored now. Lower tariffs now have improved U.S. soybean competitiveness. That's some positive news because China's effective tariff rate is estimated near 21%, down from previous levels, Tommy, of above 55%. And that 21% could decline even more later in a month or so. Once I think we're going to get a coordinated 10% 10 percentage point reduction by both China and the U.S. Bottom line, reduce tariffs, increase the incentives for Chinese buyers to source U.S. beans. China's livestock and feed sectors continue to require large soybean imports, and that's consistent Chinese purchases from the U.S. It's going to tighten U.S. soybean ending stocks, and stronger export demand is going to provide support for higher soybean prices in the months ahead. And you're going to have spillover demand for U.S. corn, sorghum, and wheat. They've already bought three to four million tons of uh sorghum and on their way to five. So they're just not buying soybeans. They bought a little cotton. They're asking for inquiries on corn and wheat. The key indicator is whether purchases consistently approach the 1 million metric tons per week of soybean pace needed to fulfill the Chinese commitment that you heard them announce last October. Market focus now is shifting from trade commitments to actual export sales activity. So now we want to see the proof, Tommy. That's the bottom line there.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, we want to see it, not just talk about it, which, as I'd said on this show before, everything's always three months out, three months out. We need it now because they need to be buying now for harvest to fill that O and D time slot and get that basis going better here for uh many people who depend on that quick ship, like North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota. Number four screwworm update. Matter of fact, when I was trading last night, the USDA put out an update last night late. What do you know about Jim?
SPEAKER_03Well, we
Screwworm Spread And Cattle Impacts
SPEAKER_03had uh the new uh NWS cases in the U.S. increased to 15. We had three new cases confirmed in Texas over the weekend. The latest detection included uh one lamb and two calves. Uh3 cases remain active, which means two cases have been declared inactive. USDA continues to focus on preventing the pests from uh becoming established in the U.S. Southern livestock ports continue to be remain closed, and that's uh building the the bullish continued bullishness in the cattle market. I know Micah agrees with that. Texas remains the center of the outbreak with one prior case in New Mexico. The increase from 12 to 15 cases highlights, Tommy, the continued spread risk. Bottom line on this is whether sterile fly releases and surveillance can contain the outbreak in the coming weeks. So we're gonna see. If we can keep that number relatively low, it's okay, but we we need just more uh fly releases, and we're not gonna see that really pick up until Mexico increases their releases and in in late 2027 when we get a new plant uh for you know fly releases underway. But that's the latest update I have.
SPEAKER_02All right, let's move along here. Quick show today. Number five, Farm Bill 2.0 Senate. What do you know here, Jim?
SPEAKER_03Bolseman, his staff, the Senate Act Committee staff is is briefing
Senate Farm Bill Timeline And Odds
SPEAKER_03as we speak the commodity groups and farm state lawmakers on the language of the Senate Farm Bill 2.0. That means it's gonna leak like a sieve later today and tomorrow. Okay, before they remote.
SPEAKER_02What do you mean by that?
SPEAKER_03Like that means all the details are gonna be coming out because you know commodity groups can't can't hold a uh a leak. Okay. And but uh I'm not gonna get too excited. They the Bozeman has clearly signaled that there's not gonna be hardly anything controversial in the language, it won't include Prop 12, like the House bill did. So when is the Senate Ag Committee going to mark up the language that's gonna be released tomorrow, Tuesday? Bozeman has signaled uh sometime between the July 4th congressional recess and the August congressional recess. Now, what does that mean? The Senate farm bill is going to be different than the House. So that means whenever they mark it up, it's got to go to the Senate floor, then it has to go to a House Senate conference, then it has to go back to both the House and the Senate floor. Now, there's there's not many congressional days where Congress is in session between now and the November 3rd election. So I I'm beginning to up the odds that this thing could be settled one way or the other after November 3rd elections in a lame duck uh session of Congress at the end of this year. So we've got plenty of times to cuss and discuss this uh issue, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02Cuss and discuss a new term here, and uh we probably will. I like that. I'm learning today. Number six RFS details for 2028 coming. I think we touched on this a little bit in sweeping oils on the high as we talked. Do tell Jim.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I did. And you know,
45Z And 2028 RFS Stakes
SPEAKER_03our story that was on Agbol Media last week, where we really got into the 45Z program, that was the most number of hits, at least from I can see, that I've had on a story in a long time. That tells you the interest in the 45Z program. What's happening? 45Z rewards lower carbon fuels with larger tax credits. That increases the focus on carbon intensity reductions. Now, ethanol plants with access to carbon capture and sequestration could gain significant competitive advantage. Now, that's important to farmers because if they market to an ethanol plant that that has access to carbon capture and sequestration, they're gonna get a higher bid. They're gonna get a higher a tighter basis. Final treasury and USDA rules are gonna determine whether the 45Z creates regional winners and losers across agriculture. The reason I say that is this is the reason, Tommy, you need pipelines. I know they're controversial in in corn country, but in those areas that don't have those ethanol plants geologically in areas where they can sequestrate the carbon, you need pipelines. So that's why they're needed. I just hope they pay farmers the in which the pipeline goes across you know, farms, adequate compensation for lower yields. Plants earning larger 45Z credits should be able to pay more for corn and offer premiums for low-carbon grain. Geography and access to carbon storage infrastructure could, I would say, will play a major role in determining which farmers benefit the most. Illinois looks like the state that geographically is going to come out of winter on this one because geologically you can have a lot of carbon capture and sequestration. That's what it tells me with ADM and Marquis plants. Bottom line, USDA guidance is still needed on carbon accounting and verification because that'll solve the unresolved issues we have on this. Now, I want to bring the RFS into this too, because EPA sometime, maybe by the end of this month, are going to detail the 2028 renewable fuel standard mandates. We call them RVOs, renewal renewable volume requirements now are obligations. Now, the 2028 uh proposal could have a bigger impact than the 26 and 27 rule. Why do I say that? The new 2028 rules are going to favor U.S. feed stocks because it cuts the RIN values for imported feedstocks and fuels to only 50%. So that you connect the dots here. See, this is why remember when we talked about used cooking oil?
SPEAKER_02Yeah.
SPEAKER_03This is why if the markets thinking, oh my goodness, I better get used cooking oil now before they cut the rin values to 50%. So bio-based diesel targets are going to influence soybean demand, crush margins, and farm income. That's why it's a market factor. RFS and the 45Z tax credits are linked through carbon scoring and feedstock rules. So the decisions on SRE waivers, uh the small to medium refiners, rent inventories, and advanced advanced biofuel categories are all going to be important. So we've got a lot of decisions coming up in the month to next two months on RFS and 45Z, Tommy. That's how important these issues are.
SPEAKER_02Just so exciting, Jim. And is this a continuation of your talking points here? Yes. Did you touch all of them?
SPEAKER_03I touched all of them.
SPEAKER_02Man, you are not messing around here. You must you must want lunch or something. You're going whatever happened to year-round E15, the game.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, it's lingering and lingering. You know, there's some
Year-Round E15 Reality Check
SPEAKER_03people say that that's not me, but some people are saying the corn growers, some good the corn growers are focusing too much on year-round E15. They need to focus on on more uh market-sensitive issues like the RFS coming up for 2028 and the 45Z program and things like that. I think the corn growers can walk and chew gum at the same time, however. I think they can they can multitask. Now, as far as the year-round E-15, the the it's lingering in the Senate. We still don't have legislative language. Remember, the House passed it, but I'll guarantee you the Senate won't go along with the House passed bill because too many private industry analysts have told me the language in the house passed year-round E-15 bill would be detrimental to bio-based diesel. So that ain't gonna fly in the Senate. So we need legislative language. Farm state uh proponents of year-round E-15 are getting frustrated that they don't see any action. So it's gonna be if we're gonna have it this year, it'll be attached to a must-bast spending bill or an ag disaster uh bill later this year. So, what I just told you is later rather than sooner on this issue. There's only, we've talked about it many times, there's only about 4,500 stations that right now offer E15 of the 145,000 stations throughout the U.S. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't have year-round E-15. It's not mandated. So it's gonna take years for other states uh outside of Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, to offer uh uh uh E 15. So I just don't put as much weight on the on this issue as some groups do.
SPEAKER_02Oh, very good. Let's move along here. Number nine, US MCA update. Real quick, Jim, as we get going here, I just wanted to tell people that I'm listening to Trade the News
USMCA Review And Trade Leverage
SPEAKER_02Live as we're doing. Doing this and trade to news just said a second ago, about 10 minutes before we started recording, uh, Mexican president had some opinions and wanted to express some things on how important trade is with uh in North America, with Mexico, United States, and Canada. And as we're trading and working here and brokering and doing all the stuff we do, we're listening to Trade the News. The whole Ag Bull team has uh trade the news, so we're being pumped full of content here night and day. Real quick, I do want to say one more time we have a couple new shows starting here. Ag Squawk. It'll come out around 7 a.m. Ag Squawk a.m. and ag squawk p.m. Tommy Grasafi, Joe Grassaffe, Jed Sidwell do Ag Squawk AM. And of course, Mr. Davis Michelson. That's a familiar name and uh a legend in the uh industry. I just put up there at the bottom, folks. Davis Michelson is currently booking future guests for his new show, Ag Squawk. Go to www.agbull. I don't care who you are in ag. If you have a story and you want to tell it, unless it's like a tree hugging, yeah, we'll even take the tree hugging. But uh there's a lot of really smart people, Jim, who need a platform to talk, and we're gonna allow that platform.
SPEAKER_03And Davis has the voice and the experience. I I know him quite well as a former colleague with Pro Farmer and on AgriTalk. And I knew I know his father real well, Ron Michelson, who worked for years, decades at ProFarmer. So I know the worth of David Michelson. So he'll bring the professionalism to your next endeavor, Tommy. So here we go. We got riding the bowl.
SPEAKER_02We got the Ag Bull Media, we got Ag Squawk, we're making you a logo for Jim's show, and we're putting out content, and that's why I'm constantly asking folks. A lot of this content Davis does will be on the premium side. Of course, there'll be a daily show every day. You'll be able to hear Davis just like you used to. We're super excited. But all the premium content, $25 a month, $250 annually. You're getting a morning research package, you're getting text throughout the day, you're getting all types of packets from Jim, and we're getting it out to you at the speed of light. Of course, we're listening to Trade the News, and uh we have all our quotes. I gotta thank our good friends at Plus 500. Plus 500 provided us all live quotes on our phones, our iPads, our laptops, everything. We're using plus 500 with that. Okay, back to the show. Last I heard we were talking about USMCA. Uh, did we get everything we needed on that?
SPEAKER_03Well, I I want to bottom line on the on the USMCA that uh July one is the we're gonna have a virtual trilateral meeting, and that's where gonna they're gonna review whether or not they should extend it. But don't get lost in the details. President Trump is using this review as leverage. We're gonna continue to have the USMCA, even though we may have to extend it. You can extend the review process for up to 10 years.
SPEAKER_02Oh my.
SPEAKER_03Yeah. So, and that's what's going to happen because Trump has clearly showed, along with U.S. trade rep Jameis and Greer, that they want rather significant changes. Okay, that's okay, even if it takes a while. But uh farm state lawmakers in the U.S. have told the the White House, hey, don't screw this up, basically. We need the USMCA. We have a North American market. Canada is important to the U.S. for a host of reasons. They're the largest uh importer of U.S. ethanol exports. 80% or more of potash comes from Canada. Mexico is the number one buyer of U.S. farm products in the corn area, in the hams area, etc. Now, changes that that the U.S. wants, they want want to deal at the rules of origin of some of these Chinese cars coming through Mexico into the United States. We have dairy policy issues with Canada. That's no no secret. They're gonna negotiate that. I just again, bottom line, I don't care what you hear or read elsewhere, the USMCA is gonna continue, even if it's on an annual basis, it's not gonna go away. And that's good for U.S. agriculture.
SPEAKER_02And real quick, how important is Jamison Greer to getting all this done?
SPEAKER_03He is because he's a nerd that he knows the policy. He helped write the initial Trump USMCA. It's a Trump policy, so he knows the nitty-gritty, and he knows when to give and when to take. So I think in the end result, he knows the significance of uh of uh uh the uh USMCA.
SPEAKER_02Excellent. Let's move along here. Number 10. Number 10, 2027 cost and returns data from USDA. And I believe you might have multiple slides of talking points. This looks important, Jim.
USDA 2027 Costs And Farm Margins
SPEAKER_03It does because this is the 2027 cost of returns. Now, this is USDA's projections. Now, Farm Bureau also on their Martel site has some good graphics. I think we've got one of their graphics, but USDA projects record high production costs next year for all major fuel crops. Okay.
SPEAKER_02Okay. That's not good. Yeah, no, that's not good.
SPEAKER_03But the the seed chemicals, labor, and machinery repairs, and cash rents are going to drive the cost increases next year. That means they see a downturn in fertilizer and fuel cost. And they were the primary drivers of the 2026 cost increases. We don't have to tell farmers that one. The highest projected 2027 costs by crop are rice, peanuts, cotton, and corn. This is why the farm state program has to change relative to those commodities because their costs are so much higher. You can see it right there. Look at rice, $1,427 an acre, peanuts, $1,248, cotton, a little over $1,000 and corn, $952. Since 2020, total production costs have risen sharply. Soybeans up 165%, corn 146%, wheat over 100%, and rice over 100%. So bottom line, USDA expects some fuel and fertilizer relief in 27%, but the savings are going to be offset by rising non-energy input cost. All right. And there's the Farm Bureau. Excellent graph. Farm Bureau does excellent graphics. And that just shows you the total cost of production by commodity. And for the Midwest groups who constantly point a negative finger at the safety net for rice, peanuts, and cotton, take a look at this chart. This is why you have to support those commodities because of the cost structure. So you can easily defend higher reference prices for these commodities as a result of the structure of the different industries. And you can see corn, soybeans, sorghum, and wheat are at the tail end of it. Still high, relatively high cost, but not like rice, peanuts, and cotton.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, and that that's just gonna be hard to call. I just call me old school. But as a markets guy, when prices come up, even though like we're seeing crude oil and other things go down, there's still a lag effect. I mean, these surcharges, this maybe a lot of these uh fertilizers were made with a very high cost production. They're not just gonna lower the price of everything because there's some oil flowing through the strait. We we had a very disruptive, what do you think, 120 days, Jim?
SPEAKER_03We did. But you know, in the case on the cost side, what's different between like seed and and and farm machinery is farmers have competition. They there's just not one or two seed companies. You have some regional companies, Wiffle, right?
SPEAKER_02And things like that.
SPEAKER_03So there's competition already in the seed market, as far as I'm concerned. Farm machinery, there's there's there's there's uh at least adequate competition. So it's not like fertilizer where we don't have that much competition in the U.S. because we drove the industry out in the 1980s. We're gonna increase more, but it's gonna take time as we spend billions of dollars to near shore or right shore the uh you know fertilizer production. So help is on the way. But this also amplifies, Tommy, the reason why you just can't have adequate trade policy that you need with USMCA and others and China and things like that. You need domestic uh increases in domestic utilization. That's why we're talking so much about the 45Z program and the renewable fuel standard program year-round E15. That's connecting the dots to increase demand to get higher flat prices for the major field crops.
SPEAKER_02Wild, wild. While we were speaking, Mr. Jim, I got breaking news. Breaking news. Trump just moved the markets a little bit. It's just probably a true social came out, trade the news again. As we're doing this, trade the news put this out. President Trump, everybody is fully aware that Iran will agree to major weapons inspections in order to ensure nuclear honesty long into the future. True social post from President Trump. Thank you, Trade the News, for putting that out.
SPEAKER_03Let's just let with the case of Iran. Uh it's kind of a a kind of a play on what Reagan used to say on the Soviet Union at the time. Trust but verify with Iran. You cannot trust, but you better verify. I don't believe hardly anything Iran says. It's like let's just hope it's true, but I don't I won't count on it.
SPEAKER_02Dealing with Iran's like that check I told you I put in the mail. It's on the way. It's on Jim. Jim's like, I went to the post office box. I said, Jim, that post office service is so screwed up, it could be a few more weeks. All right, back to the show. All right, he's waiting for that Ag Bull shirt. That's what he wants. Yeah, number one.
SPEAKER_03Our last one, yeah. The new Fed chairman, Kevin Walsh. You talk about a breath of fresh air, but first a little somber note. Former longtime Fed chairman Alan Greenspan
New Fed Chair And Inflation Focus
SPEAKER_03passed away uh earlier today, I think. He was a hundred years old. I've got a perspective on him on uh Agble Media, but as far as the new chairman Walsh, uh in fact, Walsh shows some signs of Greenspan of going back with a very short statement. We only had like four paragraphs. I heard that, yeah, in the FOMC statement. The FOMC last week unanimously left the Fed funds rate unchanged. That was not a surprise. 3.5 to 3.75. The new Fed Chairman War signaled a more hawkish inflation-focused Fed. They dropped their prior easing bias and will deliver, quote, price stability. That means inflation is number one to them. The majority of policymakers expect at least one rate hike, not decrease, by year-end this year. So we'll see. I think they're seeing October, I think. The Fed raised the 2026 inflation outlook to 3.6 percent. Remember, they want it down to 2%, and that reflects sticky, what we call persistent price pressure. That's sticky, food inflation, energy, exception, etc. Warsh sharply reduced the use of forward guidance. Now, what does that mean? Yeah he he thinks the Fed has done an awful job of outlook in the year in the prior years, so he wants to reduce use of forward guidance. He wants the market to help the Fed determine what to do. Boy, you talk about a breath of fresh air, rather than to have the market try to guess what the Fed's gonna do. So he wants to move it around, and I think that's a significance of Walsh being a farmer trader and an analyst and not an economist. Okay. I think he's smart, very smart. The post-meeting statement was significantly shorter, as we said, and that was similar to to uh farmer Fed Chairman Greensband. We've got farmed. Walsh did not submit his own dot plot interest rate projection. That's the first time in years that a Fed chairman didn't release his own. The 18 other members did, but not Walsh. That tells you what he thinks about their dot plot. And he announced several task forces to review Fed communications, which is good. You can always improve. Inflation analysis, labor market data, and balance sheet policies are three of those task forces. So he wants the Fed to improve. So I give him high marks on his first press conference that was held last week, Tommy. That's the bottom line.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, you're he did things different. I'll tell you, he did things a little different, and it it's refreshing, isn't it, Jim?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, we're gonna have to guess a little more on the Fed. He's that we're not gonna have the Fed piece piecemeal spoon feed us anymore. So that means Tommy volatility, and we all know that you you need a little volatility because why you can trade it, you can trade volatility as long as it's not too much.
SPEAKER_02No, volatility is good. I know people get mad at the funds, but the funds are what got this market up. The funds move things up and down, and I I've said it before,
Why Liquidity And Funds Matter
SPEAKER_02and when the funds are buying something, at a farmer called me today, he's all for lack of better word, upset. He said, These funds have no right being in our markets, they have no skin in the game. I said, Let me tell you something. Then I have no right being in your markets. I uh on June 24th, 1993, I walked in the corn pit. I've never put a crop in the ground, but I've taken the other side of millions of futures contracts, and that's called liquidity.
SPEAKER_03Liquidity, yeah.
SPEAKER_02Otherwise, you end up with the like Canada. Canada doesn't have a futures market anymore, and they have their Canadian wheat board, and it is so America is by far. We got a lot of problems, folks.
SPEAKER_03Let's not kid yourselves, but uh, America's a doggone place to do business and markets have to breathe, and you breathe with liquidity, so you can get then the more liquidity you have, the better it is to seek the true value of what you're trying to buy and sell. That's that's the beauty of our marketplace that we have a good finding mechanism. So I think we have the right person at the Fed. That's my bottom line on push.
SPEAKER_02I got a little pop-up here. I think that's all our slides here. Yes, that's it. Okay, hold on. I want to remove that. Okay, that's gone. You want to hear uh from our buddy Davis, real quick? I sure do. Let me see if I did the clip right. Hold on, I'm new here.
SPEAKER_00Hey everybody, I'm super psyched to tell you about a new podcast
Davis Launches Ag Squawk PM
SPEAKER_00that I'm starting in the afternoon, Ag Squawk, under the Ag Bull banner, from behind the big blue bodacious microphone of Agbol. Markets, land, inputs, whatever is important in agriculture and related markets. I've got some of my favorite, favorite people lined up already for our first shows, but here's where you come in, beloved viewer. I would love to hear from you. Who would you like me to talk to? You can reach us at agbol.com, hit the contact us tab, and my people will get right on it. Super psyched. I can't even tell you. More details to follow. I'll see you soon, everybody.
SPEAKER_02He got some groovy music mixing back there, Jim. I tell you what.
SPEAKER_03You can hear the passion in his voice, which I like. And it's he's a great member of our fledgling team here, Tommy.
SPEAKER_02I'm telling you, we're growing, we're growing. Our our waist, and we're getting our our sizes are going down. We just ordered new shirts for you and I because we're just all fit and trim here, Jim. This is we're going on a short show. I hate to end, but that the markets are open in review, crude's down two bucks, stock market
Key Takeaways And What To Watch
SPEAKER_02was up big, sold off, gold and silver are down. There's been some trouble in golden silver land. Soybean oil, strong today. Cattle doing cattle things. Although, as we speak, live cattle have given back all their gains here, 12 o'clock here.
SPEAKER_03I'm gonna end it on positive, which I always do. That's why listeners want to know. We're getting closer to the time where we set on China and soybeans where we're gonna have to have daily sales, okay? That's gonna have to add up to pretty good, what, one million metric tons of you know, a week. Two is that the RFS is gonna be coming out. We're gonna see if EPA continues to be very pro-renewable fuel standard in the consumption of both corn and soybeans. And in a couple of months, we're gonna have uh the further details on the 45Z. As we've already indicated, there could be some winners and losers on that, especially if you market to an ethanol firm that can capture that carbon and sequestration. And we've got that growing weather problem in Europe, that it's that it's corn, wheat, rapeseed, and it's starting to signal problems in Ukraine. So I think we're getting into the area here where once we get past the June 30th USDA acreage report, that's the big, that's the next big report. Then we're gonna look around at the big D demand side. We're gonna see, I think, the market kick in for higher values.
SPEAKER_02Absolutely. You remember what happened on June 24th, 25th, 26th, on uh 1972? We had some visitors from Russia and we didn't have the technology we have now.
SPEAKER_03We had the Great Grain Robbery, great American grain robbery, yeah. Yeah, hard to made us hard times.
SPEAKER_02Well, baby, Mr. Jim. We'll see you in a few days, my friend. See ya.
SPEAKER_03Bye-bye.
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