Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Acreage & Grain Stocks Preview With A Weather Twist

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We map out what could move markets next, starting with Tuesday’s USDA acreage and grain stocks reports and ending with the July weather fight over yields. We also connect the dots among China’s soybean-buying timeline, renewable fuels policy, and the political decisions that shape farm income support. 
• waiting for USDA acreage and grain stocks as the next market reset 
• weighing early July heat against a possible ridge shift and rainfall patterns 
• tracking flood impacts and the narrowing replant window in parts of the Midwest 
• recapping weekly moves in corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, cattle, and hogs 
• questioning survey response rates and how USDA improves data collection 
• watching China’s purchase pace and the tariff comment deadlines 
• breaking down 45Z carbon intensity scoring and year-round E15 hurdles 
• reviewing sticky inflation, consumer spending, and interest rate risks 
• monitoring New World screwworm cases, eradication capacity, and border limits 
• sizing up Farm Bill 2.0 odds as elections and primaries harden positions 
• noting disaster aid debates and the Supreme Court Roundup label ruling 
• flagging possible USDA support for small meat processors 
• treating the rice dryer shutdowns as an infrastructure warning sign 
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Transcript

Welcome And New Show Launch

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Welcome back to Weiss Meyer's Perspectives and happy Sunday. Thank you for joining us. I need to bring the heat. And Jim and I were recording a little bit ago, and I said, you know what? I need to bring some energy. America is turning 250, and we need to celebrate, folks. And I am excited. Thank you for joining Weissmeyer's Perspectives. We have the start of the show waiting and back with a couple notes to talk about. Tune in tomorrow. We have a brand new show starting. I'm super excited about it. Ag Squawk AM, Ag Squawk PM. It's free. And I know farmers love free stuff. But if you're willing to pay, go ahead. Move over to the paid side. $25 a month, $250 annually. Ag Bully Intel, $250. You save yourself two months. You get a lot more content with that. We're bringing in a lot more premium people. Speaking of premium, I have just the guy you want to see. Mr. Jim Weissmeyer. He's high energy. We're ready for a good show. After watching this, this show, America will be 250. And after this show, we'll be back next Sunday before the markets open. Let's get into the show.

SPEAKER_01 1:45

How are you doing? Really good.

USDA Acreage Report Sets The Tone

SPEAKER_01 1:57

And it's beginning this weekend, the 250th uh celebration. I'm going downtown later today to look at some of the exhibits. Most of the states are represented. So it's a it's a good time feeling in the in in DC now.

SPEAKER_00 2:12

I'm feeling patriotic. Heck, we even have a graphic for that. Look at that. America's turning 250. Thanks for watching us and thanks for liking and subscribing. Jim, you sent us a heck of a show. Let's get right into it.

SPEAKER_01 2:24

Okay. We're waiting for Tuesday's uh acreage and grain stocks report. That's gonna be the next major market reset, Tommy. Once we get the acreage numbers, we're gonna see the market's have been signaling, unlike the talk that we had after the March prospective plannings, where we where the traders were saying, well, you know, with the fertilizer and uh energy price run up, we're gonna see one to three million more acres of soybeans and fewer acres of corn. Now the market with the pre-report guesses are signaling not much change in either crop. So there's your parameters going into that report. The grain stocks report will be usage as of uh June 1, and we're gonna see whether or not we fed those cattles to heavier weights earlier. There could be a surprise in the grain stocks report. I've always been told that the grain stocks report is the weakest survey that USDA has for a variety of reasons. Sometimes it's drain in transit, it's both on-farm and on-farm stocks and things like that. So I think if you're gonna get a surprise, it could be the grain stocks. So the the key is the market's gonna rivet on those acres numbers, but then after that, it's all weather all the time as we try to assess the yields.

SPEAKER_00 3:46

Yeah, you want to talk about weather a little bit? We have a chart of weather. We're gonna have some heat coming into the Fourth of July holiday. You sent this to me. This is the heat index. Is it safe to say

Heat Ridge Risk And Flood Damage

SPEAKER_00 3:55

purples in oh, I don't even know what half these colors are. Purple's bad?

SPEAKER_01 4:00

Yeah, purple's bad. Not in politics, but in weather. I mean, look at those 100 degrees plus. I mean, in the heart of the northern corn belt, into Iowa, things like that. Now, you would think that the that the that the uh opening calls for Monday morning would be higher than they are, but they're kind of mixed right now. I think it's because some of the weather forecasters are shifting after the July 1st to the 5th heat warm-up here, turrid temperatures. They see a cooling off uh period, Tommy. So that lines up with actually the climate prediction center's July 5th to 11th outlook. So for the Midwest, that means the forecast is less threatening, threatening than a locked-in ridge parked directly over the carn belt that some talked about even last week. And and so the first week of July that we're going into could do some damage if the heat is intensive enough before the ridge relaxes. That's what the market's gonna have to determine. And the rain side of the forecast is equally important because some weather forecasters see showers and thunderstorms more likely from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast. And you saw, I think you told me, you saw some of the floods occurring in the areas you went into.

SPEAKER_00 5:24

Yeah, I drove from northwest Indiana. I live in Valparaiso, Indiana. I also spend time here in Nashville. I'm in Nashville today, Jim. But just remember today, June 28th, and we may come in a month from now, three months, six months, a crop report or a final bushel estimate. There is an incredible amount of ground that is flooded, flooded in uh parts of Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky flash floods, deaths. I'm sorry to report at least four to five people had uh passed away due to a flash flood in Kentucky. So hearts, you know, thoughts and prayers, and I not good, but rain makes grain. And you said something you learned at ProFarmer. What was that little adage that there's more there's more hills and valleys?

SPEAKER_01 6:08

Well, so usually that's why drought has more of an impact than rain. So the rain makes grain usually, but it can affect the quality of a crop, and it takes a while to ascertain the the yield uh the yield degradation. So I think you were right, it could take some time, but we've this is just did not happen. We've had some extended rain throughout the past week or so. So the crop condition ratings Monday could reflect some lower good to excellent ratings for both corn and soybeans, especially corn. We're gonna keep an eye on that. Depending on the weather, Tommy, we always go bottom line. The extended forecast has backed away from the most bullish weather market scenario that some talked about last or this past week, because the ridge appears more likely to migrate west after July the 5th and stay instead of staying parked over the Midwest. It still leaves warmer than normal temps. And and the key yield question will be whether those scattered storms reach the central and eastern corn belt before the early July heat removes too much soil moisture. Yeah, and Jim, the risk, it doesn't remove it.

SPEAKER_00 7:22

Yeah, and right after we get done filming this, I'm gonna check in with our own Nesvik has their own meteorologist, Mr. Craig Solberg, and you'll be seeing his clips in both Ag Squawk AM and Ag Squawk PM. We grab little snippets of what he's putting out, and as a premium client, you can receive those little weather snippets. But you said the word peaks and valleys. Let's get into markets. Markets have peaks and valleys, and there were some pluses and some minuses last week. Do tell my friend.

SPEAKER_01 7:47

Corn, as we say, treading water, if you will,

Weekly Scorecard For Major Markets

SPEAKER_01 7:50

just down two cents. And that's really they they want to see these acreage and grain stocks report. Soybeans had a comeback week after a very negative week the week before, up 13 cents, a meal up a buck and a half. Soybean oil continued returned to its run-up. And the soy complex to me is going to continue to be re supported in the months ahead relative to a robust renewable fuel standard mandate, and also the growing information that we're getting under under the 45 Z program, Tommy, that we'll get into later. Wheat had what you would call a not an ugly week, a very ugly week. It was seasonals, it was harvest pressure, etc.

SPEAKER_00 8:34

Yeah, that's tough. That's tough to see. Uh border trade wheat for the week down 24, KC 31, Minneapolis spring wheat down 42. Keep an eye on those crop ratings. Let's go into cotton, down 329. That's a big number, Jim.

SPEAKER_01 8:47

Yeah, they had a big run up here, but uh yeah, we're down to that 76 area. But as we've consistently said, if China, when they do come in and buying consistently, if they bought cotton, you're gonna have a pretty good run-up here. So we're waiting on China and the uh international market, the economy, world economy is always important to uh uh cotton, Tommy. Cattle it cattle is just cattle. Yeah, it's down only 80 cents for the week, but uh feeder cattle had an up week. Uh lean hogs is seasonality and things like that. We had a hogs and pigs report that wasn't negative, so but your pigs per litter was way up again, tremendous pigs per per litter per litter. But the the cattle market is still fundamentally supported because of the of the not low, the very low inventory levels and the still no signs that the U.S. is gonna open the border between U.S. and and Mexico. And we'll have a little bit more on that later as we discuss the new world screwworm situation.

SPEAKER_00 9:50

Absolutely. Let's get in the show, Jim. Weather we talked about this, I think. We talked about it. We talked about it. Yeah, let's move on. Yep. But uh all eyes on weather here because it's not did we get the crop planted, are we gonna get the crop planted? What's planted, planted. Real quick though, my clients in northern Illinois and northern Indiana who lost crops to flooding when the the plants were little babies. Soybeans don't like wet feet, corn was little, got drenched. They were intending to plant or replant into some soybeans or replant corn as we've had these continued rains. And when I tell you it rains hard, I mean you walk outside, you run to your vehicle, you're soaked from the front door to your vehicle. Imagine being a field and getting an hour of that. But we are getting continuous two-inch rains, two-inch rains. The ability for these people who are losing crops as we get past the Fourth of July window, Jim, it's just gonna be too hard to go in there and replant. And I do believe later on, months, years from now, we may see this as a problem. But time will tell. I gotta go back and talk about something with you. Farmers aren't turning in those surveys, and that's gonna be talked out a lot about when this USDA report, don't they say, oh, based on 38 or 42 percent survey?

SPEAKER_01 11:01

Yeah, they would NAS NAS will give the response rate. And remember, the last uh prospective plannings was very low in the in the low 40s, I believe, if not under 40. Uh so yeah, we're gonna see. Hopefully, farmers have have improved. I think USDA is making inroads into taking steps to increase the responses by going more digital rather than waiting for those surveys to arrive in the mail, and then farmers only have a day or two to meet the deadlines on supplying the information and then mailing them back, and you know the stale mail. So if you can do it digitally, that's one step in the future for increasing the response rate. So let's hope that's the case because you're only as good as the information USDA gets in it, and you need USDA reports. I know, I know farmers don't like them sometimes, but they don't mind if we're limit up, they don't seem to get too upset. No, they don't. You need a bellwether, you need a template to check other private surveys. So I think that's why they're needed.

SPEAKER_00 12:05

Well, let's talk about a subject we end up talking about every week, China. What's going on? Are these two gonna get together and get a deal done?

SPEAKER_01 12:12

Well, they're they're gonna hopefully

China Buying Pace And Tariff Timeline

SPEAKER_01 12:14

Xi Jinping is coming here late September this year, but prior to that, they've already committed to buy a chunk of U.S. foreign products, especially soybeans. Now, our China watchers think that China's gonna fulfill their 25 million metric ton commitment of soybeans. If that's the case, Tommy, they're gonna have to start buying, which with some analysts saying they're gonna have to be purchasing at least one million metric tons of soybeans a week. A week. So that's why the later you go without substantial purchases announced by USDA, both in the daily report and the weekly, and even with unknown destinations, you're gonna add up the bullishness as the later we go to have the one to two million metric tons uh sales in a day, maybe. So watch that. The other thing on China, Tommy, is the the end of the comment period. July the 10th is is the deadline for the U.S. trade rep's office to get comments on the proposed U.S. China Board of Trade. That's that that's the concept where when uh President Trump was over in Beijing, the trade officials from both countries discussed basically it's managed trade. And so the July the 10th is the deadline for the submission of initial public comments to the U.S. trade rep's office. July the 27th, however, is the deadline for rebuttal comments and responses to those initial submissions. So I think it could actually wait until the end of July before we see any any meetings as far as cutting the tariffs, even though some market chatter believes this July 10th date could could bring us some reduct some tariff reduction cuts. For agriculture bottom line, any deal would likely be product specific and tied to the trade balance. Soybeans are gonna be the first market to watch because even a modest reduction in Chinese retaliatory duties on U.S. foreign products could improve the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans, especially relative to Brazil. So we always say news is gonna come. Watch the month of July because we're gonna see this border trade come into fruition as far as some announcements from the U.S. trade.

SPEAKER_00 14:40

I wish they would have came up with a different name. Every time you say border trade, I think of this. Maybe I know people from Washington watch your show. What what would you have called it, Jim?

SPEAKER_01 14:49

Oh gosh.

SPEAKER_00 14:52

I'd have to think about friends and family discount for China. That's maybe the intuition.

SPEAKER_01 14:57

How about trade commitments?

SPEAKER_00 14:59

I like that.

SPEAKER_01 15:00

Trade commitments.

SPEAKER_00 15:02

Let's let's commit to going to slide four. I think you just nailed all these right out of the park.

SPEAKER_01 15:06

We did, we did, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 15:07

Looks like slide three and four could have been combined. All right.

SPEAKER_01 15:11

We talked about the biofuel USDA made an announcement. Uh, President Trump had an ag leaders' meeting at the White House,

Biofuels Rules 45Z And E15

SPEAKER_01 15:20

a big confab, this Thursday, in which he made a number of announcements, uh $10 billion suggestion as for to Congress and a supplemental spending request uh for more farmer aid, uh $1.1 billion in ag disaster aid for Florida. And that's going to come, Tommy, but uh, I think Congress is gonna add to it. But in that, they also announced that USDA's calculator, an update of USDA's calculator, that gives the carbon intensity scores. So practices like cover crops, reduced tillage, and nutrient management are keys. So for the first time in a while, farmers are now able to plug in some of their own individual numbers to come up with maybe a carbon intensity scores, but we're gonna need additional information from uh Treasury, the IRS, and USDA to have full total rules and regulations out on this. Yeah.

SPEAKER_00 16:24

Why are all those people involved in this? I mean, why is the Treasury, the IRS, all involved in the tax incentive?

SPEAKER_01 16:31

So it's a tax incentive, and that's why you bring IRS into it, and of course, the Treasury is over the IRS. USDA, of course, is a big role because they're doing the calculator of what practices are going to be included at what level. Now, our good friend Paul Neefer has a couple balance sheets out on how to calculate this. So look up Paul Nefer. And if you don't, I think he's been on Agbo Media.

SPEAKER_00 16:58

Davis Michelson just interviewed him the other day.

SPEAKER_01 17:00

Good. And then in one of my dispatches, I highlighted what Paul was saying regarding what he's come up with on this. So that'll that it's a farmer-friendly away in English to tell you how to calculate it because it could get pretty complex, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 17:16

Yeah, and just good news to tell you Paul Nefer is now a premium contributor here to uh AgBOL. Paul will have a monthly show here on the AgBull platform that you can only see as a premium uh client. So those are the type of goodies we're talking about here.

SPEAKER_01 17:31

Absolutely. And you and you mentioned AgSquawk PM. Yeah, uh, that's my good friend Davis Michelson, my former colleague at ProFarmer. He's gonna head that program, and I can't wait to hear him on a daily basis again.

SPEAKER_00 17:44

Yeah, we got young Judge Jed Sidwell. We call him the judge because he judges cattle and sheep, and he's passionate. I've never met a young man who's more passionate about agriculture than him and his family. And he's one to watch, I tell you, and he's getting better every week. So tomorrow he's gonna do the show all by himself. I'm gonna if you when you build a good team around you, Jim, like we're starting to do, and with yourself, of course, you started this off. Davis, Jed, my brother Joe, Lindsay, all of us here at Agble, we're putting together, I think, real something special that's affordable. And I got to plug it one more time $25 a month, $250 annually. That's the Agble Intel Premium Contributors Daily Newsletter. Before the bell with Mike Sands, I got to plug Mike Sands because you and Mike Sands have worked together for how many years?

SPEAKER_01 18:31

Oh my goodness, that sparks the sparks days that goes back decades.

SPEAKER_00 18:36

Yeah, and if you're involved in cattle, that right there alone, every day uh a Mike Sands uh video. Now, note folks and clients and subscribers, Mike works as hard as Jim, but he's taking a few days off this week. So we won't have before the bell in the future. When Mike does take time off, because everyone deserves a day off. Uh young Judge Jed's gonna head up the before the bell with Jed Sidwell. So that the cattle guys are loving the premium content, Jim.

SPEAKER_01 19:01

Mike Sands, what I can the best I can say about him, he feels the market. And it's almost like going back to the days where you had the floor market coverage, remember at the Board of Trade?

SPEAKER_00 19:12

Yeah, like Chet Corey was down there in '88, and those guys.

SPEAKER_01 19:16

Absolutely. So it's like you're getting a fee the someone who feels the market and can explain it in English. Okay.

SPEAKER_00 19:26

I I like English. I like English. Speaking of English, that biofuel stuff, you need a translator just to go through with that. I gotta be honest with you, Jim. We go through this every week, and I I can't grasp how complicated this is. Maybe I'm wrong. I don't know.

SPEAKER_01 19:39

Well, anything that's good is not easy, okay? But we want to know the final rules so farmers can see whether or not how much of the the processors are gonna keep and how much will farmers get. Those are still big question marks. So, but as part of Trump's uh Thursday announcement, he again told Congress to approve year-round uh E15. I call it a saga because it's taken forever. And I'll bottom line it again. It's up to the Senate. We it's already passed the House, but the Senate will have different language than the House because the House was actually detrimental in my judgment, based on analysts that I've talked with on the use of the uh bio-based biodiesel. So I think that'll be changed. But we're gonna have to see. The Senate remains a hurdle. The key is what the what we're waiting for the Senate language. It'll probably be put on the bill on the supplemental spending bill. So it faces pretty good odds of passing, you know, Tommy. But we're gonna have to see what are the details of year-round E15, what are the SRE eligibility to get a waiver, and those who get a waiver, how much of those gallons are reallocated back to to other processors? That's the key right there. But the ethanol groups want certainty on year-round E15 before the summer driving season, and it's here. That's why they want it now.

SPEAKER_00 21:12

Well, they yeah, we need answers, Jim. That's why we elect these officials. I think you know, we had Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden on, and he made it really clear that he works for the American people. And sometimes we we elect these officials, but we need clarity. And America's a big place, there's a lot of moving parts. We need to we need to be aggressive here before these midterms to get agriculture back on track. I feel like it's a little off the rails here. And you got one side saying we're gonna get you great prices, you got another side saying, Here's another pile of money because the prices aren't there. And it it it's leaving people a little not a little nervous, really nervous, Jim.

SPEAKER_01 21:52

Yeah, well, you have a Wall Street Journal big article today saying fifty five billion dollars in farm income transfers by taxpayers. So is that is that limiting letting the market re uh uh correct what's going on in the structure of agriculture? It's a fair question. But I will tell you from Congress's viewpoint, some lawmakers, both political parties, they want an issue and not a bill. So that's politics. Do they want to solve problems or do they want issues going into what everyone says is going to be a close election in both the House and the Senate? That's what we're dealing with right now. But I agree with you. We need we need answers. We don't need end-arounds. Also on the renewable fuel standard program, we have what we call set three. The set two was 26 and 27 mandates that we've already been announced. They were very farmer friendly, by the way, for both corn and definitely for the soy sector. Now, the set three will be 2028 mandates and maybe beyond. So the the attention now is focusing uh on this 2028 that I think will have any week now the proposed rule coming from EPA. The biofuel lobbyists want a stronger bio-based diesel and advanced biofuel growth. Watch the small refinery exemptions, the rin treatment, and the import-related issues, because uh I covered this last week on Agbol Media. Your your RIN treatment, we're we're gonna be tight on RINs, and we need stepped-up soybean processing. So we need to grow the soybean processing facilities if some of these mandates are gonna be actualized, let alone the 45Z program. So again, I I think the second gear for commodity usage, domestic utilization. Exports are on a kind of a dull, stable path. We haven't seen much additionality in exports, some but not a lot. That's why you have to have domestic utilization kick in. That's where the renewable fuel standard program comes in, gear round E15 for the future, and also the 45Z program, depending whether or not uh farmers get to contribute in some of the clear payments that's going to come to certain uh sectors in the uh in the biofuel uh processing uh industry.

SPEAKER_00 24:26

Well, let's keep it going here. Inflation, consumer spending. We we're uh some people say inflation's lessening. Did I believe we had a unless I'm

Inflation Data And Fed Direction

SPEAKER_00 24:36

getting my week screwed up, didn't we have a Fed meeting?

SPEAKER_01 24:38

We had a Fed meeting and we had uh you know, well, actually that was a week before, but we had a PCE report, and that's the Fed that's the Fed's uh inflation report they count on the most. And that showed inflation, Tommy, a little over four percent.

SPEAKER_00 24:53

So it's just not at that two percent guideline they like to stick to. We got a new new guy driving the Fed, Mr. Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair. Keep an eye on him. Good looking. Let's hope he's smart.

SPEAKER_01 25:03

I hear he is, but uh he's very smart, and he's a he's a former trader, T R A D E R. Not an economist per se, but he's smart and he knows what he's doing. But consumers are still spending. That's what retail sales show. Inflations remain sticky, we always say even food inflation, certain components are going down, egg prices, et cetera. But we had a food prices report from USDA. Restaurant prices, restaurant prices continue higher. So higher food and energy and service costs are keeping pressure on household budgets. You talk to the average American, you're they're gonna complain about the food, energy, and service costs. The markets are watching whether the spending strength delays the federal rate cuts. In fact, the market's really talking about will we get at least one and maybe more increases in interest rates this year. Uh Warsh is not singling anything. I think at the most, you'll probably have one Fed rate uh increase, but they're going to be data dependent. That's why the coming reports on CPI and the wholesale price index and the PCE is going to be important to watch. That's why President Trump wants those energy prices, gasoline prices, to come down, because he always says energy rules everything. It's it's it's embodied in the price uh of so many different products, and that's why it's key for the months ahead.

SPEAKER_00 26:29

Yeah. There was a uh a good video of that in the show Landman when he explains to her about the windmills that you you could feel good about your Tesla or even you, you drive a hybrid card, but uh America and the whole world shuts down if they don't have oil. True. One thing that we're marching right through, and I'm very proud of the American rancher and farmer and how uh diligently they've been. I'm proud on how the I don't know if proud's the right word, but I'm glad that the market is digesting this subject. Number nine, screwworm developments. What do you know, Jim?

SPEAKER_01 27:01

Well, we've had additional increases in cases, I think they're up to 25, uh, some

Screwworm Cases And Border Limits

SPEAKER_01 27:08

erratification as far as the previous uh cases. The focus is still on Texas and New Mexico. Rollins was in Mexico yesterday. Uh, she was at the opening of the uh New Mexican facility on sterile fly, and she admitted we need a lot more. And the new US plant is not going to be online until late in 2027. It's needed right now. The key unknown continues to be hopefully to keep it out of the uh the the uh the these the uh uh feral hogs. Okay. So border controls and cattle movement continue to be limited, but erratification logistics are the key. So far, we've dodged a bullet here, Tommy. As far as any, I get a lot of emails. Is there any talk about reopening the border for livestock to come through? I'm not seeing anything at this particular time. It's too market sensitive, plus uh politics is into it, as far as I'm concerned. You don't want to have this at this particular time while your new uh new world screwworm cases are rising. You just don't have it. So, so far, some of the tools that we've used are helping. We are getting new cases. Let's just hope it doesn't go into many more counties in Texas, and God forbid it doesn't go into the wildlife sector, especially those feral hogs, because then you're losing control of the situation. We're not there, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 28:38

And I don't know if anyone knows, you know, if you're from up north, you don't even know what a feral hog is. But I've been down in Texas and I've been riding around before with clients and pickups, and these hogs run in packs. It's not mean yeah, they're they're meaner than you and I combined on our nastiest day, Jim. But it's not like you go up to a feral hog and say, Can I check behind your ears and make sure everything's okay? These things will eat you alive. These are mean wild animals, and it's a huge problem. People from all over the United States don't have a clue about this. You you don't even know exists till you go, what was that that just ran by? Yeah, like, oh, those are wild hogs. They're literally eating our seed. We just planted that field and they're going row by row by row, eating it and destroying crops. It's a real nuisance, and maybe we understand the rancher will do the best. We're not new to screw worm here. We've been doing things forever to prevent it, but you get in the wildlife population, you're opening a whole new book of worms. I agree, I agree. Watch it. That's it. We'll keep it on here.

SPEAKER_01 29:41

Farm Bill 2.0. Well, this past week we had John Bozeman, Senate I Committee Chairman, Republican from Arkansas released

Farm Bill Draft And Election Pressure

SPEAKER_01 29:49

the draft. There weren't any surprises in it. The Democrats still want a little give on some of SNAP at the state level that they have to fulfill some requirements. I think eventually that's going to occur. If it doesn't, you're not going to have a Senate farm bill pass this year. Prop 12 is an interesting one. The House had a Prop 12 end around in their bill, in their House Farm Bill 2.0, but the Senate draft does not because Bozeman knows that he wouldn't have the votes for that. He'll he'll work a deal with G.T. Thompson, the House Ag Committee Chairman, if they ever do get a possible House Senate conference, if it passes the Senate. And you still could see a Prop 12 end-around language come into a final bill, but we'll see whether or not it gets off the Senate floor. The pesticide uh language is not in the uh uh Senate bill either, but we had a Supreme Court ruling on that that we'll get into later in the show, Tommy. Biofuels, year-round D-15 is not in the jurisdiction of the Senate Ag Committee. The Bozeman has said that consistently, and he's already citing President Trump's support for year-round E-15 to be part of the supplemental spending bill relative to the Iraq war in a total package of around $80 billion, of which that's where the $10 billion in additional farmer aid program is coming, and $1.1 billion in Florida's uh ag disaster funding. So that's a little update. The key is can the Senate bill move before politics overwhelms the process? And that goes into what you were saying before. They need to act on that, and there's not many days that's left in Congress before now and November 3rd elections. So I have my doubts whether or not we're gonna get a bill done, but I hope I'm wrong.

SPEAKER_00 31:46

Yeah, those clocks stick in here. Let's hope the good folks we elected can get her done. Number 11, primaries and their potential impact. I think you were just kind of leading up to this.

SPEAKER_01 31:56

Yeah. The primary results you saw in New York, they've gone socialist. It's pushing both parties toward their political basis. So Republicans are going further right, further right. The the Democrats are going off the cliff in some cases with uh what they call uh democratic socialism. The socialist wins could energize it's energizing the Democrats. Only 7% of the New York electorate voted, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 32:25

That's embarrassing.

SPEAKER_01 32:26

Isn't that something? But that tells you how fringe candidates can win. But it's giving Republicans now a campaign target, and Trump is already starting pointing fingers at look at what the Democrats are doing, they're becoming socialist. So there's your wedge issue that Trump has been wanting. And and they're already the Democrats who won in the primaries this week, like in New York, are telling Hakeem Jefferies, the House majority leader, you're next. Oh my god. So they're yeah, they don't, of course, they won't vote Republican, but they don't like what the traditional Democratic leadership has been doing. So that's why they're going even more socialist, the Bernie Sanders, the independent Democrat. This is Bernie Sanders' party right now. Bottom line for AG, the farm bill trade and spending is going to be harder as the election pressure builds. So if you don't get much done prior to when they take off for the August recess, you're not going to see much action for the rest of the year.

SPEAKER_00 33:30

No. And I'll just add one little bit of color. These socialists are so far left and so not used to what we're used to. They're making Chuck Schumer look conservative. How would you fill that in?

SPEAKER_01 33:40

Maybe my that's hard to take for me. He's pretty far left too, but he's not a socialist. But but the democratic leadership are not wanting to take on these strident uh uh socialists because they're afraid for themselves. Uh will ALC challenge uh Schumer in in the race, or will she run for president? Hakeem is already Hakeem, the the minority leader, Jeffries. He doesn't want to take them on because he knows they'll come out after him. That's the dilemma we're in. And and on the Republican side, lawmakers don't want to uh uh Republicans don't go want to take on Trump too much because you've seen the recent history. If you take him on, you're out of office. He'll he'll primary you, uh, et cetera, et cetera. So that's the uh political environment we're in right now. Uh, I don't think it'll last uh much longer, but that's what we're in now. We're in the soup.

SPEAKER_00 34:39

Yeah, real quick, talking about politics, JD Vance is on the speaking circuit. I noticed he went on a lot of shows the last few weeks on the far left, and he stays very calm. They tease him, they give him a hard time. But kudos to him for going on those shows. And they flat out said on those shows, well, we assume you're running for president, if not you, of course, then Rubio. And he laughs. And there's a very uh when you look at who's gonna run in 2028, it looks like right now Rubio or JD Vance, and on the Democratic side, you're gonna hear the three letters AOC brought up a lot more, don't you think, Jim?

SPEAKER_01 35:15

Absolutely. And uh whether or not she wants it, we're gonna see. And what I say on AOC, think when President Trump first ran for president, he had a solid 25 to 30 percent block as if stayed with him forever. In in an election in which you have a lot of other people in your party run, that actually is an advantage because that helped Trump, if you recall, in the 2016 election. He had that block of voters that didn't move from him, and he was able to pick off all the other Republican candidates, including Rubio at that particular time.

SPEAKER_00 35:52

Yeah, I remember that.

SPEAKER_01 35:53

Yeah, AOC could do the same thing, Tommy. She could, if she wants to run, if she wants to go the majority leader route, or the leader of the Democratic Party, or whether or not she wants to run for AOC, but don't dismiss her because she's got a following.

SPEAKER_00 36:07

Yeah, no, this is it's a new day. It's a new media day, it's a new way we distribute information. And there's a there's you know, we forget, Jim. You and I we're getting older. A few weeks ago you celebrated a birthday. Last week I celebrated a birthday, but there's also our our kids and grandkids and family members are younger and they have opinions and they have the right to vote. Every vote matters. And like you said, the people who are far, far left and far, far right, you're not going to sway those votes. So what are you fighting for? You're actually fighting for the middle, correct?

SPEAKER_01 36:40

Independent and uh Hispanic vote, those are your two two blocks right now. Yes, all right, totally agree. And the in independents don't like some of the things they're seeing from both political parties, so it'll be curious to to what happens because there's a lot of you want to vote for none of the above, and that's not an option right now.

SPEAKER_00 37:01

Have you ever thrown in your own name?

SPEAKER_01 37:03

Huh? We oh, you can always throw in your your own name. I wish there was a line with none of the above, and they'd win most of the cases.

SPEAKER_00 37:12

All right. Well, let's go with something for everyone here. 11.1 billion farmer aid in Florida, disaster aid. What happened in Florida? And and why is the

Disaster Aid And Taxpayer Transfers

SPEAKER_00 37:21

United States government giving away more money? This is a very touchy subject, but why are they giving away money if the free markets were going to take care of the problem?

SPEAKER_01 37:30

Eventually they can, but markets are not perfect, as we well know. And it's called the Iraqian War, it's called the Strait of Armoods, it's called fertilizer price run-ups, it's called the lack of adequate fertilizer production in the United States, it's called food prices high, it's called inflation high, it's called interest rates high. Those are all the reasons. And the farmer safety net can only do so much. So the White House is seeking an additional $10 billion crop aid and they're gonna get it, and $1.1 billion for those Florida AG disaster losses. The package is aimed at those high costs I mentioned, the weak prices and weather-related losses. Once we get the deal, and Congress is gonna add to this, Tommy, in my judgment. They've been talking $17 billion crop aid. So I think if anything, this level goes up. And as I told you before, the Wall Street Journal today has a story that's headlined $55 billion in in income transfers to farmers, you know, and they're they're going as the Wall Street Journal usually does. That it this is not is this not letting the market take care of it? Well, the market can be cruel sometimes, and lawmakers don't like they just like winners, they don't like losers. So that's why they're coming to the aid because certain uh you know uh farmers need it, especially as we'll get into later, the rice sector in in Arkansas. I want to go in. Did we talk about number 12? Can you go back to 12?

SPEAKER_00 39:01

Did we skip one? I think I did skip one. I thought so. No, that's all right. Jim, I hope I don't lose my job.

SPEAKER_01 39:08

I'll just bottom line on the Supreme Court. It was the six to two decision for agriculture. The most consequential decision

Supreme Court Roundup Label Ruling

SPEAKER_01 39:17

was the course ruling and the roundup litigation. The justices held that the federal pesticide law preempts the state law failure to warn claims when the EPA has approved the products labeling, which they did relative to glyphosate roundup. The ruling provides uh it's a major legal victory for Bayer. They're still has have to go through some legal issues here, and other pesticide manufacturers, it helps them by sharply limiting thousands of state lawsuits alleging Roundup caused cancer because additional warning labels were not included. So while other product liability claims can still proceed, the decision significantly strengthens the argument that EPA approved labels should serve as the national standard for pesticide labels. Now, Bayer's CEO Bill Anderson praised the ruling, noting that it restores critical regulatory certainty for innovators and agricultural producers who rely on uniform federal standards. Bayer said that the ruling should lead directly to the dismissal, they said, of the vast majorities of the current warning-based claims and prevent similar lawsuits in the future. So it was a it was a big ruling, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 40:45

Yeah, there's a lot of law degrees involved in getting to the final of this, and that's above my pay grade. We did we touched on number 13, 11.1 billion. We're moving to 14, then we have 15, and then I got to talk about a couple things, and then you're gonna take us home with some good news. Number 14, USDA, small meat processors. News coming. Do tell Mr. J.

SPEAKER_01 41:06

Yeah, late this week. I had a special report out on Agbol

Small Meat Processor Grants Watch

SPEAKER_01 41:10

Media on it's coming. It looks like something's gonna come Tuesday. Maybe President Trump is going to have meet with some small meat processors. This goes into a follow-up with uh uh Secretary Rollins earlier this year, talked about a program to uh focus on capacity, competition, and regional processing issues. They're gonna use uh commodity credit corporation funding. Some details are lacking, but I do do know that they want to announce something. It looks like Tuesday, always subject to change. You're you're lucky if you guess a timeline, but watch the CCC funding for grant. Here's the key. When they ever they say grant support, grant means money that you don't have to pay back.

SPEAKER_00 41:56

Okay, okay, like we had during 2020, 21, 22, there was a lot of money that did not have to be paid back.

SPEAKER_01 42:04

Yeah, in the environmental areas too, in the uh agri generation programs that Tom Vilsack announced. So all I know is that something is coming here to follow through on what Secretary Rollins had indicated earlier. It'll be curious if Trump is involved in this because of uh his interest in in beef prices, and they want to increase the the you know meat processing industry. And there's some naysayers to this as well because they don't think this is the right timing to do do that. But we'll analyze that if and when they announce something this coming week, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 42:39

Okay, let's take it the number 15 and then U.S. rice industry. You touched on this a little bit, and I know in your speeches, this is these folks are hurting, Jim. What's going on in the rice industry?

SPEAKER_01 42:49

It's Peter

Rice Dryers Shut Down Warning Signal

SPEAKER_01 42:50

Bachman, who's uh the president and CEO of USA Rice, he's a good guy. He has an editorial, if you will, in Ricefarming.com magazine. And he it was titled Times Up, and he argues that Riceland's Foods move to temporarily shutter nine of its 23 rice dryers, along with producers' rice mill, indicated it may pause operations at two dryers. Bachman said it should be treated as a major warning signal for Arkansas rice rather than a routine cost-cutting step. His point is that these dryers were built for a larger crop base, and when co-ops conclude they can't justify running them, the message is clear that rice acreage and farm economics have weakened enough to threaten the handling system behind the crop.

SPEAKER_00 43:48

Wow.

SPEAKER_01 43:49

That's a Debbie Downer. It just is. But his message was blunt the industry has moved past hearing, congressional hearings, statements of concern, general expressions of support. He links the drier decisions to unsustainable input cost, weak crop returns, and foreign competition that's chipped away at markets for U.S. rice. The commentary frames riceland and producers as having correctly read the warning signs while suggesting policymakers have not yet responded with the urgency the situation requires. What's the takeaway? Rice needs to be viewed as an infrastructure issue, not just a farm income issue. And we had that that topic, remember about a month ago, that farmers, corn farmers were talking about this. Bridge aid or emergency assistance may help growers manage one bad year, but it will not itself keep the dryers, storage, transportation networks, and skill crews in place. That's the structure that you need to have viable. So the next question is whether 2027 rice economics improve enough to bring acres back before temporary idling becomes semi-permanent contraction. That's a big it's a big story. And I know corn and soy being the belt, they did they won't focus this much on it, but this is your colleague, your brethren. They're hurting, they're hurting bad. And this is just uh going on in other sectors of the U.S. farming industry. And absolutely, this is why you need continued support for the uh ag sector because we're you're talking about structural. Once you get like cotton, once you get rid of a cotton picker, you don't go back because it cost so much. The same thing with rice. Once you close down a mill, it's hard to restart them, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 45:49

Yeah, southern agriculture is changing a lot. And we have a premium contributor who's gonna be doing just a southern piece here, real quick. Before we let Jim wrap up, I'm super excited to tell you one more time. You can cut you can catch Jed Sidwell, who's part of the Ag Bull team here. Uh, we're gonna have Ag Squawk.

Ag Squawk Lineup And Guest Booking

SPEAKER_00 46:04

It'll come out around 7 a.m. We're gonna have Ag Squawk in the afternoons with Mr. Davis Michelson. You're probably wondering, what if I wanted to be on Davis's show? How would I do that? Well, it's pretty easy. Davis Michelson is currently booking future guests for his new show, Ag Squawk. That's an afternoon show, AgBull.com. If you or someone you know would like to be on that show, put your name in the hat and uh we'll make sure we get back to you. With that before we end, a lot of the premium goodies are in the pay for service, and you're gonna see more things move over here, but $25 a month, $250 annually. I couldn't end the show without talking about the outside markets, they are gonna be open in here pretty soon. And Jim and I and the whole Ag Bull media team, we use Trade the News. Trade the news is an audio service. They put out information, they're squawking information all day long, all night long. That service already started. The second I get done with this show, I will check the news wires. I use trade the news, tell trade the news the Ag Bull Boys sent you. Well, super pumped. I'll let Jim talk about Davis a little bit because I know you have a great relationship with both him and his father, but what could they expect out of us the Ag Squawk team in the morning and afternoons, Jim?

SPEAKER_01 47:17

Market oriented, hopefully gives you direction, tools that you can use as far as monitoring what to buy and sell, you know, those are what you need as far as coming up with some understanding of the complexity of the world we live in right now.

SPEAKER_00 47:34

Well, take us home, brother.

SPEAKER_01 47:36

We're after the acreage and grain stocks report on Tuesday, as we indicated, it turns to weather almost 24-7, which

What We Watch After Tuesday

SPEAKER_01 47:45

will bring in the yield debate. So your various crop tours are gonna happen in August and even before. And uh China eventually is going to come into this market, perhaps big time. Whereas we mentioned before, we're gonna get more news on the renewable fuel standard program for the 2028 uh crops and the mandate levels, etc. And we're getting more and more information on the 45Z program, which I pencil out will increase, eventually increase domestic utilization. So I think we're done with the seasonals or we're getting close to the seasonals right now in both wheat. It's rarely when you're bullish in June in for corn and soybeans. But now you talk July, we're talking some seasonality, we're talking uh weather uh volatility that we've already talked about. So I would just say from a news perspective, we're gonna have some even more volatility, some more up days than down days, as far as what my ear is hearing, Tommy.

SPEAKER_00 48:46

All right, sounds good. By the time I see you next time, America will be 250 years old. Thanks, my friend.