AG Squawk with Davis Michaelsen | Dan Hueber | Soybeans Pop As Corn Eyes Five Dollars

Soybeans lead a strong start to the week while corn climbs toward a potential breakout, and we test whether today’s rally is just noise or the start of something bigger. Dan Huber joins us to connect crop tour reality, key technical levels, and demand signals that could reshape price expectations into harvest.

• export inspections recap for corn, wheat, and soybeans
• crude oil and geopolitical tension as an outside-market risk factor
• December corn technical line in the sand near the upper 490s
• yield risk discussion tied to dryness, heavy rain, and possible nitrogen loss
• how fertilizer prices and cutbacks can echo into next season’s yields
• the “Voice Of The Tomb” seasonal trading dates and why they still get cited
• NOPA crush takeaways and why soybean oil stocks matter more than ever
• China’s seasonal buying window and how politics can amplify the narrative
• global soybean production versus record global usage
• Brazil and Argentina crop status plus El Niño risk into the next cycle
• cattle market resilience, consumer pushback risk, and feedlot margin reality
• hog pricing, export steadiness, and seasonal tendencies into fall

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Transcript

Welcome And Market Movers

SPEAKER_01 0:13

The Livestocks made a rousing recovery today with hogs once again receiving the effort award. We put a 12 handle on beans again and five bucks in our line of sight with the corns. We're gonna start off your week right talking markets next on Ag Squawk. From behind the big blue, bodacious microphone of Ag Squawk, your pal, Davis Michelson here. Glad to have you along on a Monday afternoon. Man, what a what a nifty little day in the markets we had. Corn and soybeans both wound up higher. Beans up more than 20 cents. We'll get into the particulars. And our guest is uh is gonna be great to have today to give us some perspective on a 20 plus cent rise in some of these soybean contracts here. We'll see what uh what he makes of it. And oh yeah, by the way, corn is higher as well. As I said, there's a there's a five-handle in in our line of sight. Not quite in the dece yet. Not quite yet. I'm curious if Dan Huber from the Huber Report believes that maybe this is a a flash in the pan, a one-shot deal, or if we're actually building something here. We'll find out in just a little bit. If you're not an AgBull subscriber, first of all, let me uh welcome you to uh AgSquawk and encourage you to visit AgBull.com. Agbull.com. You can check out all the available information there. The lavish features that we're more than happy to offer our paid subscribers, Agbull.com or 855-737 FarmAggbull.com. Let's go to export inspections first off on a Monday here. They were a uh kind of a mixed bag, I guess I would call them. Corn and wheat inspections, each well above year ago and above the previous week. So it looked good in the corn and the soybean or in the wheat.

Export Inspections And Crude Oil Risk

SPEAKER_01 2:16

The soybeans are were far below last week and just a shade above half of last year's tally for the same week. So soybeans falling back just a little bit. Although, you know, it could be argued we we had a bevy of daily sales last week in the soybeans, and so maybe some of that went there. In other news, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz ground to a halt today as that 60-day truce expires. I'm looking over here at the uh WTI presently, yeah, just after two o'clock. Oh, there's an ad. Let me uh get out of that. There, there we go. Up about a buck eighty-five in the West Texas intermediate crude oil, two bucks in the October at 83.47. I saw the Brent pressing up against 90. And certainly if the tensions aren't gonna settle down over there, and in fact the truce has expired, then there could be more fireworks in the crude oil. Let's go to the tail of the tape. After a dandy overnight rally in the grains, it was soybeans' turn to lead to the upside in early day session trade, gaining double digits right away. Meanwhile, corn added a few cents as winter wheat futures softened. The livestocks were all about the ups this morning, while cattle and hogs all pointed slightly to solidly higher to start the day. By lunch, soybeans were 20 cents and change higher. Corn was up seven, winter wheat on the plus side of unchanged. This is cattle kind of faltered from early highs, trading mixed through the noon hour. Lean hogs gave it all back, and then some slumping into the red. Now I've been watching the markets as always on plus five hundred. Me and my squad use plus five hundred T4 software for up to the minute quotes, futures and options, and a host of other features. Plus 500, plus 500. Now I gotta close my crude oil chart window. Here we go. My plus 500 tells me right now the December corn contract up six and a quarter cents on the day, 489 and a half. When I tease that five handle, we only got to look out to the March at 505 and a quarter and to the May at 512 and a half in your corns over to the soybeans. The November beans 1216. That's up 23 and 12 cents on the day. An impressive move in the soybeans to start this week. Neil and oil both higher. I think oil may have given us some fireworks or I was talking to Dan Hubert just before the program. I don't want to steal his thunder, but uh he did mention soybean oil when I asked him about soybeans. And here we have the winter wheats, the Chicago. Okay, so I yeah, I have wheat zero to four on the plus side over here on my little graphic. We were actually down a quarter cent in the December Chicago wheat. Uh September unchanged, March unchanged, and all the way out to the May 27, we're up a half cent. So we're gonna call it fractionally meh in the Chicago's the December Chicago wheat at 689 and a quarter at settlement. Over to the KC, a little more action, up four cents on the day to seven seventy-one and three quarters. And now let's get to the livestocks where I've got October fat cattle down a dime at 218.77 and a half. The October feeder cattle 325 and 35. That's down seven and one half cents. And the lean hogs. You know, it it looked like it was gonna be tough, and they made it up over unchanged mostly with the exception of the October contract. Down two and a half cents in the October, 81.72 and a half. But the D's is up a nickel. We got the April and the May, each up a nickel. The feb at unchanged, dead steady on the day at 7577 and a half. That's your February lean hogs. All right. Having said all that, let's take up no more time from this gentleman. Dan Huber now joins from the Huber Report. Dan, it's terrific to see you. How are you doing, buddy?

SPEAKER_03 6:18

Very good,

Corn Breakout Levels And Yield Risks

SPEAKER_03 6:18

good. Great to great to see you. Great to be here. Thanks.

SPEAKER_01 6:21

Yes, sir. Yes, sir. Well, we we really appreciate you taking the time today. Certainly. You know, there's there's an awful lot of information coming into the markets starting last week, and now this week specifically, there's some crop tours out there. We're actually finding some results. You know, uh the they they always say, yeah, it looks good from the road, but you kind of got to get out there and have a look. And this week, we're absolutely getting a couple of different looks from a few different companies. And Dan, just just generally, it it feels like it's netting us a little bit of something. Why don't we start in the corns? What do you make of it?

SPEAKER_03 6:59

All right, very good. You know and again, of course, I mean, yeah, windshield windshield observations are just that, you know, they don't really tell the truth. And you know, and really over the last few weeks, I mean, I've driven as far west as Iowa, driven across the east all the way down through Indiana and Tennessee, you know, Kentucky, Tennessee. And boy, if you drive on that part of the country, you'd be hard pressed to to uh to be very bullish on anything, but I know there's some problems out there. And again, I mean, this is I mean, it's certainly been a a dry year for a good portion of the Midwest here, the lower Midwest, at least. I mean, maybe Minnesota is a little bit different. But in fact, you know, I know I know they've had their their dry periods too. So, you know, how that how that's actually going to impact the uh the the uh the the pollen the fill and the pollination, it's uh is yet to be known. So, you know, maybe some of these tours out there at this time will give us a little more insight on that. But but yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, the market you know, granted, the last week or so, you know, leading into the August report was a little bit on the defensive, you know, somewhat of a correction mode. Granted, when that report came out, right first blush, you looked at that higher acreage number that I think surprised everybody. And of course, the lower lowered yield didn't wasn't a major surprise. But boy, the way they boosted usage, you know, of course, took any negativeness out of that report. Kind of set the stage for today. I uh uh you know, again, I wasn't really looking for a uh a major move up here, but we've got corn really December corn knocking on the door of a breakout to the upside. So uh, you know, granted up Monday will oftentimes lead to a down Tuesday, but we'll see. Boy, if you can get December corn above 490, you know, we're probably talking five to five and a quarter range on December corn.

SPEAKER_01 8:34

Oh wow, wow, okay. Well, I was reading through some of Dan Bossi's comments. Agri Source sent a crop tour through Iowa and Illinois, and he did make mention that there's a there's a pretty significant risk for nitrogen loss. First of all, just on the basis of price, some farmers, and I don't know if you have a sense for how prevalent this was, but some farmers opted to maybe trim just a little bit of the expenses by cutting back on nitrogen to some degree, and then some areas I think it was probably east and south of you, got some hugely heavy rain just in the last week. A little bit of nitrogen leach leaching there, maybe a lot of nitrogen leaching. You know, uh I guess I'm I'm curious if you have any thoughts on a sub-180 corn yield. I I guess I'm not asking you for a prediction necessarily. Sure, sure. Do you feel like we maybe need to start to figure that in?

SPEAKER_03 9:38

Oh, I I you know it's it's got to be part of the equation at this point in time. You know, you know, how much below 180? You know, that that's probably pretty debatable. I mean, I think we have proven time and again you can put a lot of stress on the modern-day corn hybrids and they still continue to perform, but but they're not invincible. So it's but sure, we could we could slip, you know, I and again, uh I'm not a great predictor of such things, but sure. I mean, you could be in the 179 range, but I I find it difficult to think we'd be much, much below there. But but I think the first the first point you brought up is one that maybe didn't get enough attention this year, and that, you know, if we go back into the spring planning season, you know, and of course, the uh the minute the war broke out and we saw fertilizer prices spike higher, that was all the discussion. We're probably gonna see people cut back on the fertilizer usage this spring. You know, hard to verify that, but you know, granted, they turned around and put more acreage in than we than the markets had anticipated. But you know, maybe the the counterbalance to that is they used a little bit less less uh fertilizer there, too.

SPEAKER_02 10:39

So yeah.

SPEAKER_01 10:41

Well, and if if a corn farmer wants to try and yield their way out of trouble, as is you know often the case, if these uh if these inputs prices don't come down, I was mentioning the the uh the hormouse straight, still kind of up in the air. You know, nothing has really changed fundamentally for the fertilizer. And and it just makes me wonder if they if they've already cut back a little bit for the 26 crop and prices continue higher or even just hold steady, Dan. I see the potential for more of that, more of the same. Well, we got to cut back somewhere, you know, maybe we trim a little bit everywhere, but that would include nitrogen, and now we got real trouble, right?

SPEAKER_03 11:21

Well, yeah, I think you need to expand that to not just the northern hemisphere for next spring, but the southern hemisphere is they they're gonna be moving into the field pretty soon, and they're probably more dependent on a lot of that imported nitrogen than we are even domestically. So uh, I mean that could this could have a yield impact you know on the South American crops just as well as the North American crops moving ahead. And and I don't think the markets necessarily factored that in, not that it isn't building a little bit of this risk premium in here right now, but you know, you can you can only go so far until you find some uh actual reports of knowing that's happening out there.

unknown 11:55

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 11:56

At what point should we should we dip below 180? And maybe I don't even know if we have to wait until we get that printed somewhere. At what point does the corn market begin to get a little nervous? Do you think we're there?

SPEAKER_03 12:10

Oh, I think we're starting. I think we've got that foundation laid. Again, I think if you do see December corn close above this 492 area, that's the confirmation that you know we're starting to build in that risk factor that that yield is going to be under there. You know, and one thing about the corn, I mean, not that we're at a tight critical situation on the corn, but you know, we've continued to ratchet the ending stocks down on a pretty consistent basis. You know, if we do end up with you know in the 1.5 range, that's going to be the lowest we've had for a number of years in the corn. Again, not critical, not a panicky kind of situation, but you know, that's also dependent on another good crop out of South America. And, you know, and of course, you know, the the added factor that of course we started playing with last week was now that we have Russia and Ukraine taking turns bombarding their export facilities, you know, you've just put that much more strain on the world supplies of corn, which you know, at this point, yeah, Argentina is supplying part of that. But I mean, you know, we're we're basically going to be the only game in town here before too long.

SPEAKER_01 13:14

So this is as France is having trouble, it just sort of seems like there are just a number of little nicks in a map of corn production around the world, and we're we're not without our problems, but it does seem that we're uh once again blessed with I don't know if it's good genetics, if if we just have the the secret sauce to grow you know that sweet, sweet American corn. But here's a question. I I am gonna put you on the spot on this one. I'm gonna put you on the spot. Jim Weissmeyer had been doing some calculations and calculated that oftentimes there's there's a low in corn, beans, or wheat in August here. Some people have said that that the low in corn may have already been placed. I wonder, are you willing to stick your neck out and talk about a low in in corn?

SPEAKER_03 14:07

Well, you you want to get, I think you want to step even back a little bit further if you you know want to use the old voice from the tomb uh legend, you know, however you want to put that. That actually told you to buy December corn on the 20th of June. You know, and if you look back at that point, yeah, we didn't turn up until the 30th of June, but still we put in a fairly substantial rally in the corn since that time. Now, granted, I I would have to look it up. I think that actually says maintain your long and court until the 10th of September. So, you know, not that that works every year, but I mean, this year it seemed to be uh playing by the rule book here pretty well. So uh, so yeah, I I I could the correction we saw here during August, just a typical healthy 50% correction. Now we've taken back off the upside. And like I say, I I I continue to think this this 490 level is the line in the sand. We start closing above there, you know, we're into a new ball game, I think, at the corn market. You know, granted, December corn, I think what traded uh 506 high back in the spring. But I think if we uh if we start pushing above 490 now, that level is not gonna stop. But I think we're we're gonna move up into that, like I say, maybe more towards a five and a quarter to 530 range, which of course is not prices we haven't seen for a couple of years here.

SPEAKER_01 15:18

Yeah, it feels like there would certainly be an opportunity that uh somebody would want to look after and not be chasing nickels once we get up there. Uh right. I'm I'm curious. Maybe this is unfair, and we can move on fairly quickly here if if if you'd care to. But I wonder, do you know the story of the of the voice of the tomb well enough that you could regale

Seasonal Trading Rule Voice Of The Tomb

SPEAKER_01 15:40

us with the high points? I'm not sure that all my listeners know what that is. I have an idea, but I'm not sure I've got it right.

SPEAKER_03 15:48

You know, I might uh I might need to look up the exact dates here. Give me uh just one uh one second here. But uh, you know, my the way it was related to me was you want to guess. I'm I'm picking this out of uh 40-year-old memory or better, but supposedly there was a uh wealthy individual who had passed away. Turned out he had been a uh pretty active commodity trader, and his his descendants all gathered at the reading of the will, expecting to be rewarded handsomely from the uh the riches he'd accumulated over the years. And once the lawyer opened the will, all there was was a sheet of paper that basically gave seasonal instructions on uh when do you when do you buy and sell various commodities? And oh shoot, let me uh I'm gonna I'm gonna have to dig in here just a little bit now.

SPEAKER_01 16:39

But so it's the old uh teach them teach them how to fish rather than giving them a fish. That's what we got going there.

SPEAKER_03 16:44

Certainly, certainly, yep, yep. You know, in fact, my my computer's not exactly cooperating. Oh, there we go. So yeah, here we go. Here most of the tomb dates. Sell March wheat on January 10th, and then buy May or July wheat on February 22nd, sell July wheat May 10th, and then buy it on July 1st. In corn, it was buy July corn March 1st, sell it on May 20th, buy December corn on June June uh 20th. And uh I'm waiting getting trying to get the sell date here, but um my uh computer's pretty forever. Yep, hold on for exactly, exactly. So, yeah, you know, and again, you can look you know how how many people over the years have thought, oh, you wait till 4th of July and you sell corn on the 4th of July. You know, maybe uh that on average that works pretty well. But I mean, I want to say this is I'm going back 20 years now. I had done kind of a study on that, and and truly, 75% of the time we saw markets reverse direction around the 4th of July. I mean, speaking specifically of corn, but 75% of the time it was a high. 25% of the time it was still a low that actually turned markets higher from there, which is you know, that that's the category we fit into here this year. So it's uh, you know, right now I think we're enjoying the ride. But you know, I I think one thing that producers probably should keep in perspective is you know, yeah, we not that we aren't tightening stocks up a little bit, not that we don't have some world weather issues to consider here in the months ahead, but you know, if we start looking at corn in this you know five and a quarter range on the old crop, maybe it's a good time to start looking out at the 2027 crop and seeing if there's some price levels that are look attractive to start locking in as well.

SPEAKER_01 18:28

So yeah, there's some fives out there, aren't there?

SPEAKER_03 18:31

Absolutely, absolutely. So yeah, don't don't lose sight of that. That uh, you know, we don't want to just market one year at a time necessarily.

SPEAKER_01 18:38

So that's good counsel. Good counsel. Let's see. Oh, the moisture that that they've gotten over there in central Illinois through Indiana, some have said that that when it doesn't wash out could it could actually be somewhat benefit beneficial. The real true beneficiary of that moisture actually uh may wind up being the soybeans here. Let's switch our conversation over to the soybeans, you know, and I would go straight to those NOPA crush numbers, looked real good, crushed within

Soybeans Rally On NOPA Oil Stocks

SPEAKER_01 19:17

expectations, soy oil stocks below the bottom end of the range of expectations, and that's the part I feel like is is worthy of a little bit of excitement, those stocks falling below the bottom end of the range of expectations. Your thoughts?

SPEAKER_03 19:32

Yeah, I mean, and I think uh I couldn't agree more at this point. I mean, I granted the the bean market has it did a nice job on its own. There was a little bit of discussion that yes, maybe some of those excess range, you know, maybe it did some damage there. I think that was probably more of an excuse than anything else. But I think the uh the true story there was swambian oil stocks. Trade was looking for around 1.45 billion pounds. A month ago was at 1.5 billion pounds. Here we were down at 1.36. So, I mean, significantly under what anybody was anticipating. And you know, and it's and it's been interesting over the last week or two. I mean, the oil market's been kind of a sleeper. It was like we couldn't come off a dead center. They you really it didn't really react to the resurgence in the petroleum markets, but obviously the demand has been better than what was anticipated to uh to draw down those stocks that way. And I suppose you could say, all right, we were getting late in the season, maybe soybeans are yielding a little bit less oil in the crush. The crush number itself was not as high as anticipated, but regardless, I mean, it's that would that would tend to say you need to start rationing a little demand in the oil.

SPEAKER_01 20:42

Yeah, we did see on the soybean side some pretty decent flash sales last week to the tune of oh, over half a million tons, I think, as I recall. Sure. A little lackluster compared to the same week last year in the inspections today, but overall demand has been pretty good. Do you get the sense that it that it is expected that China's gonna buy? Just continue now.

SPEAKER_03 21:09

I mean, China certainly, I think you have a combination of factors. One, let's not lose sight of the fact that just in a few weeks here we're gonna have Z visiting Washington. And I think by them purchasing beans at this point in time, you've eliminated a club that uh Washington could use to uh to batter the Chinese with. But the other one is this is the time of the year they're gonna come in and buy beans acno de slot from the United States. Because they know that's that's the period that that South America's supplies really start to dwindle. We're gonna have our supplies at the uh the greatest. So, I mean, if we if we're not selling beans for that period to uh the to the Far East, you know, we're not gonna sell beans at all. So I I yeah, it's nice to see them come in. And and of course, after uh months of absence, great to see them return. Is it out of the ordinary? No, I I I would think it's a pretty normal seasonal type thing at this point.

SPEAKER_02 22:00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 22:01

Well, and I'm glad that you brought up the demand story for soybean oil as well, because that's become more than a significant player in the bean market, hasn't it?

SPEAKER_03 22:10

Oh, absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. You know, and again, traditionally you usually look to the meal market as the leader. I mean, and you think about it, well, if if we're going to crush a bean, forty-eight pounds of it is going to be meal. Well, that's that's your majority of the value of the soybean. Well, not not at this point. Right now it is the oil market. And meals have some some decent volatility here and there, but boy, it seems to return to $300 again and again and again. So yes, it lifted up a little bit here today, but but still a pretty sluggish market at this point. And you know, you look at it here domestically. I mean, granted, the the the uh when you look at the the feed numbers the USDA published last week, they're they're counting on a lot of corn being used in feed rations. I I think if they're gonna if we're gonna see people boost up corn because it's cheap, chances are they're gonna do it at the expense of meals. So uh and and and you know, here again, cattle numbers, we're not looking at anything growth, any real growth in there. Hog numbers are pretty stagnant. Sure, I guess poultry's maybe a little bit on the rebound, but it uh, you know, I there's not a bright picture really to paint for that soil mar soy meal market unless it happens at the export scene, and that that doesn't really seem to be the case either.

SPEAKER_01 23:19

Yeah. Just offhand, I recall from USJ's report last week, they they showed maybe not a dire circumstance in sorghum, but certainly a decline in sorghum production. Does that figure into the the feed mix at all as well?

SPEAKER_03 23:37

I well, you know, of course, I think I think they really trim back on the export number there as well. So uh, but sure, sure. I mean it that that could push a little bit more over to the over the grains. You know, granted sorghum is a it's more more of a bit player out there, but it but but it was the one the one category that had a uh a pullback in those production numbers on that on those reports last week. So yeah.

SPEAKER_01 23:59

So are you proposing that as we see corn rise here, if this is sustainable and it and it holds, and we're having a hard time finding a home for all of this meal, that we could see meal kind of replacing some corn in rations, perhaps?

SPEAKER_03 24:13

Oh, I oh, I would think so. You know, and again, I haven't uh haven't run the ratios there, but certainly, you know, if corn uh I mean everybody every commercial feedlot in the operation or every commercial hog operation in the world doesn't run in those ratios on a on a regular basis. And granted, you don't want to switch every other week or something, but you know, if they see an economic uh economic advantage to uh uh balancing those rations out, then absolutely they will.

SPEAKER_01 24:37

So yeah, yeah, very good. I bothered you about the about the corn yield. I haven't heard nearly as much talk around the soybean yield, but perhaps we could we could talk about the low in soybeans. Similar seasonal tendency on the beans, your impression about those were up over 12 bucks. Maybe it's a softball question, but are you ready to say the the pre-harvest low is in for the soybeans?

SPEAKER_03 25:04

Maybe not 100%. Well, I can say pre pre-harvest, okay. But uh, you know, beans, you know, we know that uh the markets respond to what happens in beans in August as a whole. This August weather has not been too terrible, bad too terrible for any, unless they got flooded out. I mean, August moisture and the the heat and humidity we've seen is generally pretty pretty positive for soybean production. Now, granted, maybe this oil situation could could change that overall picture. But when I look at the bean market right now, yes, impressive to see us start the week 23 cents higher, but all we've really done is done about a little over a 50% correction of what we lost here recently. So uh I I'm not quite ready to uh jump on that bull bandwagon there just yet.

SPEAKER_01 25:46

That's fair. That's fair. I think that's that's good counsel there. I don't know if we've seen rain like we've seen in in the central Illinois, Indiana area. These are key crop growing areas. I don't need to tell you or the viewers that I'm just curious, do you have just rampant speculation here, but how much of that crop that was involved in that flooding there, how much can we expect to recover? I'm having what I'm trying to get at is I'm trying to figure out how much of the crop was damaged beyond repair from what we saw rain-wise over the last week. Do you have any uh do you have an opinion?

SPEAKER_03 26:26

Uh yeah, not uh not a huge. I mean, granted, you know, you also have to keep in perspective that you know when low ground floods out, the high ground benefits from it, you know. So there's there is a give and take when you see that a lot of it, of course, is going to hinge on how quickly waters recede if they are in flooded areas. And is is it any, you know, I can I can look around this area and there's some areas that almost always flood out. They didn't this year, you know, because the rains have been coming on a more consistent basis. So, you know, those those kind of give and takes uh you know, you know, certainly make a lot of difference. I did see a uh a pretty good clip here today, and of course, this responds probably to a lot of people who live in this part of the country, but but somebody had posted, you know, Chicago weather has had it had absolutely no adult supervision since Tom Skilling retired. So it's uh maybe maybe that's our problem we're on here.

SPEAKER_01 27:16

Supervision is key. Supervision is key. Dan, you're you're pretty good at this stuff. You you've been at this a while. Let's just take a moment. A couple years, couple years, yeah. Just plug the Huber Report, H-U-E-B-E-R report. Where's the where's the best way to get more from you? Is it huber report.com?

SPEAKER_03 27:36

Well, yeah, you know, actually, probably the the most effective way is just to uh send an email, which is Dan at the Huberreport.com. So it's you know that would be your most instantaneous response. So it uh but yeah, I'm still publish a daily morning commentary, most fundamental and technical in the markets, as well as some week weekend comments most most often. So it's so yeah, I've been well, I mean, it's hard to uh sometimes think about I'm doing it this long, but you know, have been really in the advisory service newsletter business since around 1979. So uh yeah, I've seen a few markets, both good and bad. So uh hopefully that keeps me uh with a a a little a reasonable perspective on what we're looking at in today's markets.

SPEAKER_01 28:21

So well, we've had a uh a wide range of crop conditions during this growing season, and I'll be honest, South America isn't isn't uh uh exactly at the front of my radar. You mentioned it a couple of times in our conversation about corn and soybeans. Can you just give me a general overview of how it's going for for Brazil and Argentina, just sort of generally on the corn

Global Beans South America El Niño Risk

SPEAKER_01 28:47

and soybean crops? How are they doing? Oh, sure.

SPEAKER_03 28:50

Oh, I mean, you know, and of course, I mean harvest virtually done soybean. Uh soybean harvest in Brazil has been done for you know several weeks here now, but a record harvest. The soy the corn crop is solid. I mean, not quite finished there. I think they maybe got another 10 or 15 percent, which is their their second, the safrina corn harvest. And they will actually start planting uh first season corn within a week or two. Uh Argentina, you know, have had their problems. In fact, too much moisture here as they finish harvest. I think they've got 8 to 10 percent of that harvest to go yet. But the even the Buenos Aires grain exchange today went and bumped up their their projections for the corn harvest this year, which looks like it will set a record down there. So, I mean, great, great production this year. But, you know, as we know, we've got an L El Nino or Super El Nino in the works here right now. So that that could really throw some monkey wrenches into the works here for the uh for those South American crops as we uh start moving into their planting and growing season again.

SPEAKER_00 29:48

Yeah, yeah, very good. Thank you for that.

SPEAKER_03 29:50

You know, one one one one point to make on soybeans, which I think is worth adhering to. If you look at globally, globally soybean production this year, record, I think it's 442 million metric tons, something in that neighborhood. If we just blew out every other production record that uh that there is. That said, record usage, 440 million metric tons globally. So, I mean, granted, we're producing a lot of product, but we need to, I mean, because the demand is there for it. So yeah.

SPEAKER_01 30:21

So record production, but also record use. What are they what are they doing with with all them beans?

SPEAKER_03 30:27

Oh, I mean, you you well, you name it, I guess. I mean, it's uh cooking oil feed. I mean, of course, a lot of parts of the world. I mean, they they tend to look at soybeans as a food, and like you know, we we tend to think of it as a feed stuff, but but but yeah, I mean it's it's being crushed for all sorts of purposes. And China, of course, still the major, the the major demand force. And you know, look at China. We know they're the still the largest, by far, the largest hog herd in the world, and that's still a major part of their diet, and they're trying to bump up their beef production, poultry production. So uh, you know, there's there's your there's your major growing force. Unfortunately, you know, we uh we are not supplying the lion's share of them anymore. I mean, back uh you you go back a decade ago, we were supplying 40% of the beans into China. Today that's around 15%. So, I mean, those markets are that that's a very similar story to what we went through in the 70s. You know, in uh 1972, 73, I think it was actually 1973, President Nixon put an embargo on soybean exports as we uh had kind of sold more than we actually had. Well, that provided the incentive for our what were our dominant customers at that time, uh most specifically Japan, to go to South America, begin to invest in in uh pump propping up agriculture down there, which is exactly what they did. Now, here we have Brazil producing more soybeans than we are. And I I I, if I'm not mistaken, you know, they they of course they've they've had a put a halt on uh pushing into a rainforest area, but they've got a lot of what they call permanent pasture down there that could be moved into ag production, most specifically soybeans. And if I'm not mistaken, it's it's somewhere around 62 million acres. Well, you know, we only plant 70 million here, you know. I mean, so they could almost have 80% more or 80% of what our total acreage is that they could expand into yet if if the economics are right. So I mean, there's there's the main key. You still have to have the right economics and the right demand world to make that happen.

SPEAKER_02 32:29

So yeah, yeah.

SPEAKER_01 32:30

My uh my folks were in the Peace Corps for a short time. My dad, a far a farm boy, raised hogs and and was there to to help assist with raising hogs, basically in Ecuador. My mom was a school teacher, so she was hanging out there teaching school. I spoke to someone, and you you may know who I'm talking about, but I spoke to someone who who went down, I believe it was to Argentina, it might have been Brazil, with a team of farmers, kind of during that Peace Corps time, early mid-70s, maybe it would have been. And what they were doing was helping farmers figure out a better way to grow soybeans down there. And sure, and it it might have worked too well, is my thought.

SPEAKER_03 33:18

Oh, yeah, well, worked it worked exceptionally well. So, you know, and and and again, be you know, probably the biggest issues or the biggest problem they've had down there have been infrastructure. And of course, that doesn't change rapidly or inexpensively, but I mean they've made huge, huge strides in uh in, you know, not just river and barge facilities and export facilities, but of course, just on roads. I mean, it's it was you know, a decade ago you were still driving, you know, hauling soybeans in on basically dirt roads that you know could could turn into a slurry in an instant. And you know, most of those major highways have been paved at this point. So it's it's a you know, over the last 50 years, I guess you'd say. I mean, it has been a uh almost a miraculous change in uh the the the what they can produce down in that neck of the woods and get to market, of course.

SPEAKER_01 34:07

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. I don't want to keep you too much longer, but uh I do want to make sure. Is there anything in the livestock that you've noticed, man? We've thrown an awful lot at the cattle market, and it seems to be taking it pretty much

Livestock Check Cattle Prices And Hogs

SPEAKER_01 34:21

in stride here. The fundamentals are holding up despite, you know, we we heard news of some some shifts in the packing industry last week. We've had the new program, we had all the border stuff, we've had you know, we had drought in the north a few years ago, and then drought in the south after that, or maybe it was the other way around, but still a tight cattle herd, the market very resilient, as is consumer demand. Any thoughts on the cattle market, quick?

SPEAKER_03 34:48

Uh the uh you know, I guess the key thing to keep in mind is one, you know, we're still at phenomenally high prices. You know, again, if you went back a year ago, we were talking about holy smokes, we're are we gonna see 200 cattle? And you know, we are now saying, geez, we're we might go down to 200 cattle. You know, so it's but but granted, if you've got animals on in in a feed lot that you paid for uh a high price feeder for, that that doesn't necessarily mean that's gonna be a profitable venture at this point in time. But you know, I again I I have been shocked over the last year on the resiliency of the cattle market, but I think we've we've met as match. You know, I think we the consumers have finally pushed back a little bit. The export demand, surprisingly, has remained pretty steady. But you know, I think but between the between the the amount of cattle coming in from particularly from South America and a little pullback in demand, yeah. I'm afraid we're and again, we're we're still uh we haven't totally slipped over the edge, but I think we're we're teetering there, and it wouldn't take much to give them a little push to to take prices down back, you know, at least to the 204, 207 range in the October futures. And you know, yeah, granted, that's just a period of re uh readjustment again. I mean, once we uh once you clean out the feed lines of the high price feeders, you know, we'll we'll rebalance again. But it you know, and pork pork is competitive, poultry, uh, yeah, you know, for the most part. So I like I say, I think the each week, each month we go past with higher gas prices, with higher interest rates, consumers are starting to back off more and more spending for uh the the high priced items, and I'm afraid beef is going to be uh taking a toll because of that.

SPEAKER_01 36:29

Yeah, it's it's been ongoing. Uh I just real quick on hogs, not a lot to say here, but if it feels, you know, we we took a run when we still had the August contract around. We we popped up over a hundred bucks, then everyone was very excited, and then we came back down again. Now that's off the board. But to me, hogs feel feel priced about right on the board. Am I am I all wet?

SPEAKER_03 36:55

Yeah, I'm no, I think it's it's pretty uh pretty accurate. I mean, very a contra seasonal year. I mean, generally you want to see you think about seeing your peak in the summer months in the hog market. And here it was just the opposite this year. I mean, I mean, mid-June, you were down towards uh what has been the low for the year here so far. You know, nice response out of that. I I'm I'm kind of afraid you know we we couldn't hold on to gains here today. I wouldn't be surprised that we could see that October contract get back down towards that 80 cent level here again. You know, that said, I'd like to think there was enough demand out there. Exports have really, really stayed pretty respectable on the uh for the hog trade. So I'd like to think we can hold there. Then once you start getting to fall again, we can start talking about seasonal lows and then your uh typical move up into the winter months and start buying those Christmas hams and all that kind of good things.

SPEAKER_02 37:46

Right, right.

SPEAKER_01 37:47

I saw in the paper the other day, somewhere here in town, some grocer had pork loin for uh a buck 72 a pound. Anytime, anytime I can get pork below two dollars, even below a buck ninety. Man, I I feel like I'm putting money in the bank. You know what I mean? Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 38:04

You're you're you're you're talking about one of my favorite cuts of meats on top of it. There you go.

SPEAKER_01 38:08

Yeah, absolutely. Well, very good. Any anything else that you want us to keep in mind in the livestocks? That was a good conversation about the livestock there. We're gonna we're gonna move on unless you've got something further that uh that you feel like needs to be not really.

SPEAKER_03 38:23

I mean, I think people are uh running feedlots or uh running hog operations, either one. Yeah, you gotta keep a sharp pencil, you know, because I uh you know, particularly in the cattle, you know, we've had uh uh two and a half years or of some some phenomenal returns, some phenomenal prices. And like I say, I think that that era is probably behind us now, so it's time to really uh really sharpen the pencils. And and of course, you know, the the marketing is gonna be a challenge. You know, nobody's gonna, I shouldn't say nobody, but we certainly here in the Midwest are not gonna have packers anywhere close to us. I mean, things gotta be transported more, and the fewer, the fewer there are, the less competition there is. I mean, that's just not usually a good combination for the uh the producer. Yeah, very good.

SPEAKER_01 39:05

Let me uh let me ask you, you're just west of Chicago. True statement? Correct, correct.

SPEAKER_03 39:11

Yep, yeah, DeKelb, Sycamore, Illinois. Yep.

SPEAKER_01 39:13

Okay. If you look out the window right now, maybe you've got

Weather Trivia Music And Closing

SPEAKER_01 39:16

a thermometer or or just a general sense. Tell me about the weather. What's your what's it look like in your backyard right now? How are you doing today?

SPEAKER_03 39:23

You know, we we're all very pleasant, you know. If you look in that map there, we probably get a little bit in that green area, although we have not had any rain here today. I think we've got about a 60% chance of rain tomorrow. But, you know, it granted hot and sticky, but you know, that's August, you know, which is what you would typically expect. The rest of the week, you know, we're talking low 80s, you know, uh upper 70s, low 80s on temperatures. Nighttime temperatures haven't really been dropping off that much. So again, it would be interesting. I haven't been out in the field. I should talk to my son-in-law see if he's been out walking any fields, but it's you know, we should uh we've never had an abundance of rain this year, per se, you right in our neck of the woods. Yeah, I can go to areas 20 or 30 miles from here to have had some some real washouts on you know, when the storms come, they tend to be uh violet, as everyone knows. But I mean, from from what we can tell here, you know, soybeans, the boost of rain we've got here the last couple of weeks should really help out that soybean crop. And I think corn, you know, should be a bit average to above average for the most part.

SPEAKER_01 40:22

So well, I think you and I are are on either side of differing weather patterns. You've got uh we're experiencing what you are basically down here in KC. We've been hot and just as muggy as the Dickens. I got up on Sunday morning and could feel a change in the air. You know, we the cold wave, apparently, well, the cool wave, I won't say cold, rolled through and it just it felt so much better. Feels like in between everybody else has had a whole different scenario. Like you said, I I could drive, I don't know, 80 miles north, and I know that they've had some real, you know, some real gully washers up there and severe weather and and even out to Kansas Way as well, but quite quite the mix of crop conditions. Let me go to the National Weather Service. They're looking for areas of gusty winds, heavy rain leading to flash flooding, and high surf to continue across portions of Hawaii as tropical storm Lala continues to move away from the islands. Were you planning to go to Hawaii anytime soon, Dan?

SPEAKER_03 41:29

You know, it was not on the calendar at this point in time. So I think I'll just I'll stay home for now.

SPEAKER_01 41:33

So just wait for now. Wait it out, wait it out. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will shift into the southern Appalachians today. Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, scattered wind gusts, and heavy rain today across the northern and central plains. Dan, I'd like to go to some some items of mild interest as we get ready to kind of close out the show. Can I count on you for some mild interest, Dan?

SPEAKER_03 42:00

Oh, I'll try to give a mild answer, sure.

SPEAKER_01 42:02

I appreciate that. Well, in 1786, it's the birthday of Davy Crockett, American soldier and politician, a controversial figure to some. Gave his gave his best at the Alamo, and unfortunately, wasn't quite enough. In uh 1896, oh, get this one, Dan. Bridget Driscoll was run over by a car. This is 1896 now. In the Crystal Palace London grounds, she was the UK's first pedestrian automotive casualty, the first person to be killed by a car in 1896 in London.

SPEAKER_03 42:40

I'm not sure if I'd want to be known for that.

SPEAKER_01 42:42

So well, you'd never know. You'd never know. 1959, it was the release of kind of blue by Miles Davis, the best-selling jazz recording of all time, released. And in 1998, you'll remember this. President Bill Clinton made the statement Well, it depends on what your meaning of the word is is. You've been writing for a very long time. I imagine you know pretty well though what the meaning of the word is is, don't you?

SPEAKER_03 43:10

Yeah, I and I I remember those years well. And by the way, that was one of my favorite uh jazz albums when I uh growing up was Miles Davis.

SPEAKER_01 43:17

So it you got excellent taste, sir.

SPEAKER_03 43:20

Yeah. There we go. There we go.

SPEAKER_01 43:22

Let's uh let's try something else musical really quick before I let you go. We're almost there, Dan. Okay. I would I'd like for you to see if you can finish this lyric for me. Okay. I'll give you the first part and then we'll see if you can finish her up for us. It starts like this born on a mountaintop in Tennessee, the greenest state in the land of the free, raised in the woods so as he knew every tree. How does it go after that? You know?

SPEAKER_03 43:56

Killed him a bar, killed him a bar when he was only three.

SPEAKER_00 43:59

Killed him a bar when he was only three. It's exactly correct. Well done.

SPEAKER_01 44:04

In honor of David Cockett's birthday today, born in 1786. Dan Huber from the Huber Report. Dan at thehuberreport.com. Huber is H-U-E-B-E-R. Dan at the Huberreport.com. Uh Dan, thank you so much for your time today. I'm really glad that we had a chance to chat, and I hope we can do it again sometime real soon.

SPEAKER_03 44:30

Sounds great. My pleasure to be here.

SPEAKER_01 44:32

Well, and thank you, viewers, for checking us out today on AgSquak in the afternoon. Also, thanks to TradeTheNews for the view behind the quotes. Look to trade the news. News you can use, use trade the news for useful news. That's trade the news. And might I just once more direct you to agbull.com where you can dig deeper with AgBull Intel. Take the markets by the horns. Visit Agbull.com or call 855-737 Farm. That's 855-737 F A R M. Thanks everybody for watching. Jed will be back first thing in the AM to start your Tuesday. And then I'll be talking with Ray Chung and others from Acre Hedge tomorrow afternoon. A very interesting deal they got going on over there. Don't miss Ag Squawk in the afternoon. Tomorrow, come on back, everybody.