Parlay with the G's
Parlay with the G's
NFL Week 3 Picks
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
Parlay with the G's
NFL Week 3 Picks
I think you need to hit one for us for the pain that I'm in from last week. It's uh, you know, I'm trying to come here delivering for all the women across America, trying to get them involved in NFL and promising them shopping sprees and uh 0 for two to start the season on parlay with the G's. Um I'm right there with you.
SPEAKER_02I'm 0 for 2 as well, both by one leg. Um don't think we saw the Saints upsetting the Ravens coming. You know, I don't think most of the people in America did. I think um Sunday was a renownedly weird week too. Talked about how much I knew the teams and I thought I knew them coming into week two. I I don't know anything coming into week three. Um, you know, teams can be good for a warning. For warning, uh bet at your own risk. Teams can be good, teams can be bad, chargers 0-2. We had high hopes for them, you know, preseason. Um, Panthers come out, get blown out 54 or 59, you know, to 37, and then we go beat the Falcons, um, like we did. Dead number on them. Our defense was the main you know, scoring factor, I feel like, of that game. Um, you know, you get the Packers going to the overtime with with Jets. Um, the Browns beat the Bucks. I mean, there was um there was quite a lot of trickery, a lot of injuries as well. We hate to see injuries on this podcast. We are gamers, we want teams to be at their full potentials. Jackson Dart, Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Malik Neighbors. I mean, you keep you keep going down the list. It's sad.
SPEAKER_01Puka Nakua, Brock Bowers.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, I mean, it's it's it's a week by week league. We talk about it all the time on the podcast. Um, so hopefully week three is our week. We do think third time's a charm. Maybe we have a little something special for you. Um, maybe a couple parlays. I did hit a plus one thousand TD score parlay. So, you know, maybe we can get a little TD action this week. You know, last week was hard on points, but I think this week might be better on points. Um, maybe get some favorites winning some games this week, like they should when they're favored by eight or more. But um, what were your little thoughts of last week?
SPEAKER_01I mean, my thoughts of last week was it was the week of the underdogs. And the funny thing is, so I had Chargers week one, they lose to the Raiders, right? I'm in the Survivor League. Every all these lamb just get, you know, slaughtered. Here we go. Bah, you know, walk your way into that week one trap. So I actually buy my way back in, but I'm like, this is it. I'm not, I'm done for the season. I'm I'm not gonna buy anything way back further. And so I have my fiance Gracie who joined the league. I'm excited to bring her into the mix, and I also have my coworker ready, he's from South India. He's never gotten involved in NFL yet, so I'm just now introducing him to fantasy football and Survivor. And it's been super exciting because we're texting each other throughout the week trying to figure out who we're gonna go with for week two of Survivor. They actually both had good picks for week one. They took the Jaguars who took out the Browns, and I was feeling you know embarrassed to pick the Chargers.
SPEAKER_02So I didn't like the Jaguars two week one, right?
SPEAKER_01And you did too, right? So good, great pick with the Jags. So I buy my way back into week two, and the thought is what if we all pick three different teams? Does this increase our chance as we go along here?
SPEAKER_02And of course, of course, you know, only one can lose.
SPEAKER_01Right. And so, and so of course, you know, ready he uses Claude. So he's got AI that literally did his entire fantasy football draft. Mind you, he drafted Josh Allen, who got him 50 points each week. He got McBride, he got uh like CD Lamb. So he's like killing the league, right? He's two and oh, and AI did that for him. But AI gave us the three survivors for week two, and this is all based on rankings and all that, you know, statistics. So I'm like, all right, I'm I'm coming back in. You know, I don't want to go with the lame pick, but I'm I'm just gonna go safe here, safe and sound. Let's go with the Niners. They're favored by 14 and a half points, they're playing the Dolphins. I don't care. I just need to get a win. I'll evaluate things come week three. Congrats. And so Reddy tells me during the week he's like, I'm going Buckies. I said, Who's the Bucks? Oh, the the Bucks, the Buccaneers. He said, Yeah, I said, you know, I'm The Buckies isn't a thing, though. That's not a thing. It's not a thing, yeah. And he and I'm like, you know, I wish I, you know, I wish I picked them. That's a great pick. I don't I don't see the Browns doing anything. You know, we're we're doing our podcast each week where we gas up who's gonna win, and of course, we're completely overlooking the Browns, they're not even on our radar. And so Gracie comes up with her pick as well, and it's the Ravens. And she's like, Well, I'm thinking Eagles or Ravens, and I'm like, look, Philly can get a little sketchy. I don't know if you want to put them as a survivor pick. I'd probably go Ravens, Ravens you know, is a safe pick. So dead within week two. The the Bucks lose to the Browns, the Ravens lose to the Saints, and that also adds to my parlay with going three out of six. I had the Ravens moneyline, Bucks moneyline, and I also got on the Bears train last week, and pre- and the podcast we were talking about the weather in that game, and I said it was gonna be 60 degrees, so that should be just fine. I'll go Bears moneyline. That game ended up being a rain slop fest, final score of nine to three. Caleb Williams is injured, he's out of the game. We don't know when he's coming back, and the Bears lose. So I actually go three out of three last week. I hit the Niners, the Chiefs, and the Eagles tease to plus three and a half. Um not good for the friends that have bought into the NFL come week two here, and not good for me personally with two weeks of parlays. So it's it's some tough sledding over here. Um, yeah, you know, I think um I was right there with you.
SPEAKER_02I mean, five leg money lines. I felt like it was safe. Um Panthers did me great. Um, I was very sketched out about the Packers um because the Packers went into overtime with the Jets. Um, the Niners were super easy. Um, that was nothing that was ever worrying me. But you know, the damn Ravens. Um, I also had the Eagles in there, which the Eagles were in my survivor pick too. So um And that was sketchy.
SPEAKER_01That was 17-17.
SPEAKER_02That's what I'm saying. I'm like, you know, every game was kind of tight this week. It shows you the NFL is you know it's a dog league, you know.
SPEAKER_01Everybody's so early in the season. Yeah, that's why it's tough to do these predictions, especially so early in the season, because teams don't really have their form yet. And some teams are firing off like the Chiefs right now and the Niners, and some teams look abysmal. Like, look at the Chargers, they they they look lost out there, they're not putting anything together.
SPEAKER_02Um, and a team that we expected to be good too, which is crazy subject, but I was taking a look at the spreads this week. I'm telling you guys, everybody out there, it's not gonna get easier this week. It sucks. We have minus 2.5, minus 7, minus 6.5, minus 2.5, minus 3, minus 3.5, minus 7, minus 3. I mean, I can keep going. It is a very right around one score, or right around, you know, maybe just over that you're gonna have to pick. And it's like, you know, right on those teeters of minus 2.5 is great if you like the team, but if you like the underdog, it's like, damn, they can lose by a field goal, and I don't win. Um it's gonna be tough this week, too. But you know, I'm 10 and 16 week one, 10 and 16, week two on my spreads. I'm trusting myself, I'm trusting what I've seen. Sunday I sat on the couch at the Octobox and watched football for eight hours straight. And I didn't watch red zone, I watched every team, good and bad plays, offense and defense. I'm hoping I'm coming in with a little bit more knowledge this week. I'm hoping I can get, you know, just above 10. I would like to hit like a 13 or a 12 out of 16 for the boys, and I am hitting a parlay of the week this week. I'm telling you this, I'm sticking to my plan. It's five money lines. I'm seeing the board. It's gonna happen this week.
SPEAKER_01All right, lucky number five. I like that over here. I told you.
SPEAKER_02And then a couple TDs. Couple TDs, a couple TDs.
SPEAKER_01Of course. Let's get the TD scores rocking. We know we need to get the TD score parlay. Those are the big ones. Those are the big ones you write home about, you know. Plus a thousand, you know, that's a nice one. Let's go. All right, TD. Saves the week. So let's do it. Let's try to crack this code here, right? Just like any sport, right? Short-term memory. We dust ourselves off, we get we get back for the next play. We there's no looking back. Looking back fucks with our neck. Everything's forward, it's on the up and up here. Here I come with the positivity. Here comes week three. Here it goes. This is the good juju coming everyone's way for parlay with the G's. Hard game start on. By the way, quick thought you should probably isolate those spreads that you're doing for some singles. Because if you're hitting 10 of them a week, yeah, like that's so so. What I like to do is, yeah, I do my parlay because it's not even worth it to you know get a minus 500 or a minus 350 money line. It's like what's going on. Why would you circle trust for reasons? Yeah. But there are those fringe games every week where like the Packers were minus 180. Like, I'll consider that for a single, or if a team's like minus 150 kind of coin flip game. I kind of I kind of like those single strategies.
SPEAKER_02Uh see I like taking like one or two underdogs in singles. Like last week I had the Bengals money line. You know, it's like plus 160, you know, plus 120 to plus 160, that range. So it's a coin flip game. You know, those are my favorites personally. I had the Raiders plus 174. That's a little stretched, but that's nice. You know, that was a great winter. So I think those are the singles that I like to target out. So I think I'm gonna call out, you know, a couple of my favorite underdogs of the week, too. I think that's a good strategy. Hopefully, get the players just a single to earn some money, get a little bit extra than just what you bet. Um, but man, I guess let's kick it off. You know, what game do we have Thursday? The Packers versus the Falcons at the Packers. Do we have any injuries or anything that we gotta talk about?
SPEAKER_01Yeah, so the Falcons right now. So this is gonna be Yeah, he's coming back. So we got Thursday night football in Lambeau, Wisconsin. Uh, this is gonna be the Packers' first primetime game this season. And uh news just came out that Michael Penix Jr. will start for the Falcons. So all love to Cooper Rush and what he's been able to do in the past as a Cowboys backup. But now it's time to get in the big guns here and let's see if Michael Penix can save the Falcons seasons right now after a rough start at 0-2. They're gonna go play Green Bay, who's one and one here. Green Bay opened up the week as a seven and a half point favorite. That's now down to six points due to some of the news that Penix is coming back. Makes sense. Analytics are pretty strong on the Packers, though. Analytics at 75% for this matchup here that we have. Um, as far as you know, major marquee names to shout out, um, AJ Terrell is on IR for the Falcons. So that is one of their major corners that won't be playing this game. And weather and Lambeau looking good, 60 degrees and cloudy this week. Um TC, why don't you kick us off here? Thursday night football. How do you see this going down?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, um so look, I mean, we know two things, right? I feel like the Vikings have a good defense who the Packers lost to in week one. And the Jets might not be a bad team this year, you know, but they suit got a winner with overtime. Whereas the Falcons, we saw what happened last week and the week before. I mean, last week the I mean, Cooper Rush, 100% at fault for a lot of those. I don't want to blame a single player, you know, for a loss of a team, but five turnovers, you know, when three of them are coming from your quarterback, you know, and fumble to start the game. Fumble, really bad interceptions. Um, I haven't seen what I need to believe that the Falcons have a chance to play in a football game yet. So I'm gonna lean Packers at home, prime time, minus six. It's not seven, so you know, I feel a little bit better about minus six. Um, and I kind of like what I've seen out of the Packers more than the Falcons. Don't get me wrong, I have not loved what I've seen out of the Packers. I think Jordan Love's kind of underperforming. They're not moving the ball and scoring as much as I would like them to. Right. But the Falcons have a pretty beat up defense, um, showing as the Panthers did last week. Um, so I think the Packers can at least get like, you know, 20 to 25 points on the Falcons. And I just don't think the Falcons would score that much this year. Maybe I'm wrong with the new quarterback, but I'm gonna go Packers minus six, Packers money on it.
SPEAKER_01All right, there we go. Uh, for me for this matchup, look, if you guys want me like in all transparency, I don't lay six points on games like this. That's not something I wake up like, oh, the Packers are gonna beat the Falcons down. Let me take that minus six at minus 108 odds and go put that in. No. If there's anything I'm gonna consider for this game, it's Packers money line. Just better team overall. That's what you want to put in your circle of trust. If you're gonna combine that with anything, I personally don't lay spreads on favorites. So I would consider something like Green Bay Packers money line with over 20.5 team points. Uh, they scored 22 in their first game in their second game now, though. You know, what if they only get 20 points like they did against the Jets in some bad weather?
SPEAKER_00Just to the overtime.
SPEAKER_01Right, and just to just get to overtime. So, so you would go over 19.5 points. That's also something to consider. Um, I looked at analytics, you know, they predict a score of like 27 to 17 Green Bay in this matchup here. Another thing that I like to do is like we don't like unders on this podcast, although I took it in the Rams game last night under 50 points. But I like to go over the the minimum. Like, what's how low can I pull a score down to go over? And that number for me in a lot of NFL games is 34.5. I I really don't see a lot of NFL games that you can't get to like a 2015-2014 type score. So my my best shout-out for this game would be a few things: Packers money line over 19.5 team points, and go like over 33.5 total points for something like this. That can get you to plus 100, put a 50% boost on that. Those are the three selections I feel best about. Hey, I love those.
SPEAKER_02I'm the TD guy over here, so I'm gonna shout out a TD scorer. Christian Watson scored three TDs. Um, the Packers haven't scored a lot. He has most of their touchdowns. I'd eye him. Yeah, no Terrell as well, too. Um, I'd eye him for a little red zone um TD. I mean, we had two tight ends and a running back score for the Panthers um last week. Um, but I think the Falcons do let up in the air. So um I would I eye that a little bit, maybe a running back TD, but um, I like your analytics. I like that, you know, over 34 and a half, it's a good number. And like, you know, I think the Packers should be able to put up 20. So over 19 and a half team total for the Packers. I like that too.
SPEAKER_01There's not there's nothing worse than that feeling where you gotta go over, and it's just a sloppy NFL game that ends like 20 to 13 and you and you couldn't clear it.
SPEAKER_02Or the Panthers, you know, are up 30 points going to the fourth quarter. It's like, all right, second stream players you're in, you know? Yeah, it's like, and that's because you're over doesn't hit. So, you know, I like team totals a little bit more just because, you know, if you do believe that the team's gonna win, you can believe that they're gonna get to 20, 25, you know, whatever points you guys feel comfortable with. I think 20 is a safe number for this game.
SPEAKER_01And here's what I'll say I think Penix is an upgrade for sure. The guy can ball and he's gonna change the Falcons' trajectory this season. I actually favor Penix uh over Tua. I would say definitely go with go with him, you know, based on what I've seen from Tua recently. Uh, you also have to factor in desperation. You know, Falcons need to get a win right now. They're 0-2, so they've they've got that sense going into a game like this. That's that's gonna contribute to covering a plus six, but we just haven't seen it from Atlanta yet. So I'm uh I need to see it before I start picking them to cover games. All right, let's go to your boys. That's gonna be the Carolina Panthers at 1-1. We've talked about this. How long is it gonna take you into the season to put the Panthers in your circle of trust? It already happened for you in week two. Will it happen for me in week three here? They're gonna go to Cleveland and they're going to play the Browns. Very tight-knit thread that we have here. The Panthers are favored by two and a half on the road with analytics giving them a 62% chance to win this matchup here. As far as injuries go, Jordan Brooks, the running back for the Panthers, is doubtful with a groin in this matchup here.
SPEAKER_02It's Chuba anyways. You know, it's Chuba anyways.
SPEAKER_01Chuba, Chuba, uh weather 67 in Cleveland. Um, TC two and a half. Yeah, that seems doable. I get a question. You mind if I cook real quick? Cook it. All right, get the apron on.
SPEAKER_02Look, you know, I'll tell I'll start off with this. Like, as being a Panthers fan and having a lot of down seasons for a while, you know, there's a lot of fans out there that have not trusted Bryce Young. And look, I have had my doubts with him just like anybody else has. He got benched for a reason, you know, but this Bryce Young we've seen since he got benched, is coming back with a vengeance. Um, last year, he showed a lot of tenacity going into big games, playing them well, you know, getting the air, getting the ball downfield in the air. That's the one thing I love. Like that pass to Xavier would get against the Falcons. Doesn't matter how bad the Falcons are, that was a 60-yard bomb in the air. I love seeing that out of Bryce Young. Bought my Bryce Young jersey right after we won the game. Um, I'm in on the Panthers. You know, it's crazy to turning into like Pat McAfee and all these NFL game day shows. And hearing them kind of whisper about the Panthers too. They're like, you know, kind of been a sleeper, but like Bryce Young, second most passing yards um in the NFL, you know, six TDs through two games. Um I'm putting my faith in the boys. I think we're playing well. The Browns snuck out a win, and I don't know if that's more due to the Bucks being bad or the Browns. You know, just having a good defense and kind of making a couple plays. Don't get me wrong, playing in Cleveland's hard. It's gonna be in the dog pound, and I think this is gonna be a real test of how good are we. Um can we cover two and a half points right against the Browns? Um, you know, or at least put up like another 25 plus point game because our offense has looked so good in the last two weeks. The Bears defense did hold the Vikings. You do count it to weather to nine. Um, and but the Falcons are the Falcons. So it's I I'm kind of excited to play the Browns to test our offense of how good we are against a decent defense, if not a good defense. Um, that being said, I I have to stay with my boys. Two and a half points seems doable. Um, you know, I think the public is gonna be on us heavy this week because you know the Browns are the Browns, and everybody thinks the Browns are gonna brown again.
SPEAKER_01Browns is the Browns. You hear what the coach said?
SPEAKER_02Yeah, yeah. And the Panthers, you know, looked like one of the best teams in the NFL last week because they did play the Falcons. But I'm sticking with my boys. I like two and a half. Um, so I obviously will take money line as well.
SPEAKER_01Let's go. Hey, sir. I'm riding with you this week. And this is one of those games that I've talked about where you see something at minus 148 and you want to go on a single this week, why not ride the Panthers minus 148 on a single money line? TC, I'm doing that with you this week. I'll shout it out right now. Uh, I'll I'll do a separate on-the-side Panthers.
SPEAKER_02I was gonna say circle of trust is a little sketchy with this line, but like right.
SPEAKER_01I I mean I love the single out.
SPEAKER_02I love the single.
SPEAKER_01Am I gonna put the Panthers in a circle of trust on a two and a half point spread and have them be the sole reason we don't hit week three? No.
SPEAKER_02No, you're a smart man. You're a smart man.
SPEAKER_01Am I gonna hit them on a minus 148 single? Yeah, yeah, we're doing that this week. Let's get it. All right, all right, all right, I love that. Yeah, no, simply, I mean, I just I trust the Panthers more than I trust the Browns. Uh good to see the Browns get a win last week. Uh obviously not for us, you know, who invested in the Bucks. It it actually sucks, but like for their morale as a team, good to see that that's capable. I mean, good to see Deshaun Watson show remote glimpses of all things for the Browns NFL quarterback. Like, good to see that he's still you know capable of throwing some check-down touchdowns. At least something's going on there. Um, but yeah, I would chalk that game up to more Browns defense. They made life difficult for Baker Mayfield. They still had a chance to come back there. You know, it got a little weird with the lightning. Um, but yeah, I just trust the Panthers overall more than I trust the Browns. So Panthers, moneyline, and if an NFL team wins, it's usually by a field goal. So I'll take the two and a half points as well. Am I really gonna say Browns plus two and a half that this is gonna come down to one point? I don't know. I don't know. I trust the Panthers more. It's as simple as that. All right, let's go next up. Cincinnati Bengals are going to play the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. Cincinnati has got a little different vibe to them. They're two and oh to start this. Not 0-2. They're not 0-2-0-2-2-0. And credit to you and Connor for picking them against the Texans last week. Uh both were right uh to see. And they're pretty good 20-6 last week. Um, the Bengals opened up at one and a half. That spread is now up to three and a half point favorites against Pittsburgh on the road. Analytics giving Six and Addy a 61% chance to win this matchup here, as far as major marquee injuries go. Um no definitives to shout out. Weather in Pittsburgh looking pretty good, 68. I haven't seen any rain so far for NFL games. Um, TC, I'll go with this one first here. The the Steelers look bad. Trevin's a friend of ours from the podcast, but they scored three points in New England last week. And Rogers really doesn't look like he can escape pressure. The offense looks dysfunctional. There's only so much that TJ Watt can do and company on the defensive side of the ball to win games, you know, on their own, kind of like how they did against Atlanta. Uh in week one, beating them 20 to 3, or you know, whatever uh type score that was. Um, ugly game in typical Steelers fashion, but it's gonna catch up to you. And when you get an offense like the Bengals, who Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow are on the same page right now, throwing touchdowns, T. Higgins as well, too. And surprisingly, the Bengals defense has looked strong in the first two weeks, and we were clowning them last season for having one of the worst defenses.
SPEAKER_02The Bucs did put up 27 on them week one, but then again, I do discredit that to like first game of the year. You don't really hit hard in the preseason, but holding the Texans a six.
SPEAKER_01Yes, but to start their season, the Bengals had a fumble recovery for a touchdown. So at least the defense is getting some confidence that you know they're a factor uh to start the season. And you know, with all that being said, could Pittsburgh keep it close? Yeah, but Cincinnati's vibe for me is minus three and a half, so I take that. Um circle of trust, maybe a Cincinnati tease if they can stay healthy. I'm just not super confident in Pittsburgh right now. How do you feel about it, TC? Exact same way.
SPEAKER_02Um Steelers have kind of been embarrassing. They're only a win is to the Falcons. They only beat him by seven. Um, I just don't think Aaron Rodgers, uh I think his time is gonna come before the end of the season, to be honest. Um, so I am also gonna ride with the Bengals minus three and a half. I don't think that's enough. Um, I kind of love Bengals moneyline, to be honest. I've been riding the Bengals hard. Um, I think that they're better team than we have seen, that we have started as a better team than what we have seen in the last couple years. Um minus 192. It's kind of I mean, you know, it's like have the Bengals really played anybody? We just talked about how the Bucs aren't great, and I mean the Texans like kind of look iffy. So again, I think the Steelers are a bad team, so why not the Bengals beat another bad team? Um Bengals minus three and a half.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and then at minus 192 with some team points, I could also eye that as maybe a single or a two-pick parlay for this week to isolate the Bengals. Okay, let's go next up here. Two teams that we thought would be um division winners potentially, but they're both 0-2, and that's going to be the Houston Texans going to play the Indianapolis Colts at 0-2, who put up a solid fight against the Chiefs on Sunday night. The Texans opened up as one and a half point favorites on the road. That's now up to three points total, and analytics are giving Houston a 53% chance to win this matchup here. As far as injuries go, no one major to shout out other than Alec Pierce. Alec Pierce is doubtful with a heel for this matchup, and it is indoors, so nothing to worry about. Um, TC, both 0 and 2, both need to get a win here. Who are you eyeing?
SPEAKER_02Look, the Chiefs won that game against the Colts. Everybody thinks the Chiefs team is called good. They took them to overtime. Like, let's not let's not think that like this game didn't have like two minutes left on the clock when it ended.
SPEAKER_01And he threw a bomb in overtime to put them in position to win the game.
SPEAKER_02The Colts are like, you know, like I think they're 0-10 now or 0-9 in the last if you kind of count last season two. But they've kind of been right there for most of the games, and the Texans this year just haven't looked the best to me. I'm going for the first upset of the day. I'm going Colts money line, Colts plus three and a half. This is my first upset of the day. I just don't like the Texans right now. Don't like what they've been doing, didn't look good last week. Um, kind of just if I mean they played the Bills decently, but it's like, are they having to rely on their defense? CJ Stroud looks awful this year.
SPEAKER_01Yeah.
SPEAKER_02I like the Colts just ground and pound, running with Jonathan Taylor all night. Kyra Warren in the end zone. Um, I like the Colts.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, TC, you know, you would expect me to pick the Texans in this spot. Uh how you feel about them? Because you're pretty heavy on recently. We have we have our side crushes in the NFL, and somehow the Texans are my side crush type team. Uh when they were good, you know, I was vibing with Joe Mixon and the defense and CJ Stroud uh looking real good that year when they made the playoffs a few years ago. Um but this past game, I picked them to beat the Bengals. They only put up six points last week, and on the other side of that, the Colts last week put up 30 points and lost in a nail biter in overtime to the Chiefs. So both these teams' energies right now, I the Colts look more positive to me than the Texans do. We keep relying on the Texans defense as of last season, being so elite. But what does that really get you if the Bengals put up 20 points last week and you can only score six, and that's at home too, and this game's also in indie. Um, you know, not circle of trust, but Colts money line, Colts plus three in this situation here. Okay, let's go next up. The Kansas City Chiefs at 2-0 are gonna go play the Miami Dolphins, looking like one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. If you're out there and you're in survivor leagues and you're betting and all that stuff, you know, sometimes you just gotta find the bad team and follow them around. And that's that's what Miami looks like this season. Um, the Chiefs opened up as a seven-point favorite on the road. That's now climbed up to eleven and a half points in favor of the Chiefs, with analytics giving them an 83% chance to win this matchup here. Um, as far as the injury table goes, no marquee name to shout out for either team, and gonna be pretty hot in South Beach at 85 degrees total. TC, the biggest question here is 11.5 points. That's a weird number.
SPEAKER_02Um, yeah, it's the biggest question. Uh I'll go ahead and say it. Chiefs, moneyland Chiefs win this game. Look, I've talked about it before. The rule is 75. Right now, there's 80% of the public on Chiefs spread. That's a weird number to me. Chiefs don't win. We I heard it on ESPN today. Chiefs don't win blowout teams by teams. I know it's the Dolphins. There's something weird about this game in that line. The Chargers, or they're sorry, the 49ers were favored by 13 and a half against the Dolphins and Mollyw them. Why would a team at equal caliber as ESPN makes it sound have less of a spread against the Dolphins to buy in the average year to take minus 11 and a half? I'm gonna go plus 11 and a half. Something fishy about this game. I'm gonna stick with it. Chiefs moneyline, obviously, but something something in the water on this game.
SPEAKER_01Well, I like the statistics that you've been following as the season goes along. If 75% of the public is on a spread in one direction, we go the other way. I have no reason to take Dolphins plus 11 and a half here because they got blown out against the Niners, except for that. That would be the logic here. Um, as far as what to consider, I mean, again, it gets down to is it worth it, you know, minus 850? No, nothing about minus 850 is worth it from a betting perspective. Um, but Chiefs, yeah, circle of trust, Chiefs money line. Uh, podcast purposes, I'll take them to cover, but you'll probably end up being right here uh just because I have no reason to take the Dolphins plus 11 and a half after last week. All right, let's go. Next up, we get the LA Chargers at 0-2 going to play the Buffalo Bills at 2-0 this week. The Bills opened up as a two and a half point favorite. That's climbing, though. The public is getting on the Buffalo bandwagon here with now seven-point favorites. And uh Buffalo looks like you know, hottest team in the NFL. Analytics has given them a 77% chance to win this matchup here, and as far as injuries go, nothing major for either team. Uh, and I also can't see the weather at the bottom here. Um, TC, I'll take it away here. Uh, could the Chargers win? Yeah. Is this the week where like things could be weird if you take Buffalo and it's that week where you get the upset and they come kind of down to reality a little bit? That could very well happen if the Chiefs are sorry, if the Chargers hit their peak. And and because there's always upsets every week, right? And we never see it coming. We don't know who it's gonna happen to. But the Chargers let my survivor pick down week one. Are you kidding me? We are out of the Chargers. We're out. If you would have taken them last week, they lost to the Raiders at home. Justin Herbert got dropped from my fantasy team today. Justin Herbert got dropped. Big distractions sitting up in the box, and he's not throwing the ball well. So, with that being said, Bills are going in the circle of trust this week. I don't care. I'll fall off the wagon with them. This the seven points is the biggest question. But again, I feel big. Chargers, you've let us down two weeks in a row here.
SPEAKER_02I think the line moved because Vegas was like, this is too unfair that we're gonna give them anything except for like minus seven. Maybe the Chargers fans look at plus seven, it's like, okay, we can lose by touchdown and still not lose. I think the Bills are gonna go out there and cook them. I do not like the Chargers. I'm out on the Chargers and I'm high on the Bills. I am Bills minus seven. I love it. It's you know, I was talking about those five money lines. Bills looks great.
SPEAKER_01Here's here's a good one for you, TC. The Chargers let up 26 points to the Cardinals in week one, and they let up 26 points to the Raiders in week two. I think Buffalo money line. Yeah. Bills over 50. Bills Bills money line and over like 29 and a half points. That's about to say 39. That may be the move. That may be the move this week. Maybe just take every Bills player to have a touchdown.
SPEAKER_02Whoever you want. Can't lose a bet on the Bills. Happened last week. Can't, you know, it's gonna happen again. Sorry for um uh oh my god, the Panthers old player, DJ Moore. He's out, right? Yeah, shoulder. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, so yeah, that's um a sad one. But I would even eye like James Cook, two TDs. I mean, Josh Allen, he's got five. I mean, it's crazy. Let's um I'm gonna bills.
SPEAKER_01Can you tell? This is a perfect setup for a week three Chargers win. I can't wait. Um, I have the big upset. I have I have the big upset. It's coming. It's coming. Well, it could be this one. Next up, we got the New York Jets going to play the Detroit Lions this week. And the Jets at 1 1 are going to play Detroit at 1-1 as well, too. Um, the Lions opened up as a nine and a half point favorite, but that's now shrunk down to six and a half points here with analytics giving Detroit a 73% chance to win this matchup here. As far as injuries go for either team, no one marquee to shout out, other than I keep shouting out Pacheco uh for the Lions. He hasn't been able to debut a season yet. Are you are you thinking a little J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets upset this week?
SPEAKER_02I don't think so. Um I think the Jets have looked great. Um, I think that they are looking a lot better than they have been in the last couple years. Um, they've given their fans something to cheer about. Have they got an interception this year? I I don't know if they have. I haven't seen anything about it, but like, man, I can't. If it hasn't happened, I'm praying for that time to come. Yes, they beat the Titans. Um, and they lost to the Packers, but kind of played them pretty well. I think their defense is pretty solid. Um I'm gonna lean Jets plus six and a half on this Lions money line. I think Lions are at home. I think they ever bounce back after the big game that they lost. Um, because they kind of got embarrassed by the Bills. And I don't know if that's the Bills being really good, which I believe they are really good. Yeah. Um, but I think the Lions are kind of regressing from where they were like two years ago when they were like America's team in quotes. And I think the Jets are progressing. So I'm gonna go Jets plus six and a half to cover against the Lions, but the Lions take home a W at their home stadium at forward field.
SPEAKER_01I thought a little anticipation coming there that that was gonna be the upset of the week. We think the Lions are really good. But uh, you know, and by the way, here's how you know the Bills are good because they put up 36 points in Houston week one, and we think that's an elite defense in the NFL. So if they can score like that on anyone and do it again the next week against Detroit 2, that looks like one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Um, not sure what's really going on with the Lions. You know, a few years ago they're in the NFC Championship game against San Francisco. We're all high on them. You have Sonic, you got Knuckles, they're running wild. You got Jared Goff throwing four touchdowns a game, you know, Amon Raw St. Brown, Laporta, I mean, you name it. Uh they're they're able to score points. The problem with the Lions is their defense is sketchy. I mean, their their defense can't stop a cold right now. Uh they give you a little TSA tap tap, you know, make your way on through here with the bombs for the plane. Uh they need a little better action going on on that side of the ball. Um the Jets, on the other hand, you know, solid defense, but I can't really get high on their offense. Um I'll go Jets plus six and a half just because for this week with you. All right. The real question is at minus 305, can the Lions be trusted? Do they go into the circle this week at minus 305? That's that's less than.
SPEAKER_02That game's too sketchy for me. That game's too sketchy for me. I'm gonna leave that one out.
SPEAKER_01All right, let's go. Next up, we got the Seahawks at 2-0 going to play the Washington Commanders at 0-2. And a big blow to the Washington Commanders that Jaden Daniels has dislocated his same arm from last year. We don't know if he's gonna keep playing. Uh, Seahawks opened up at 3.5. That's now up to seven point favorites on the road here. Seattle is a 68% chance to win this matchup here, and Sam Dardold is questionable. So there is a chance that he comes back this week. Saw that. Um, on Washington side of the ball, uh, we know that Daniels is out, so that makes a big difference for them. And weather looking good in Maryland this coming Sunday at 72 degrees. Commanders haven't announced their quarterback.
SPEAKER_02I mean, I know they drafted that one guy. Um, was it I I I'm looking at him right now, Athan Calamasus. Calamanus. Not exactly sure where he played in college, but they also have Marcus Mariota and Sam Hartman out of Notre Dame. Um, so I I mean like they'll go Mariota.
SPEAKER_01Probably my thought. And they put him in in Dallas last week.
SPEAKER_02Yeah, so let's say they just go with Mariota. Seahawks is a tough defense to play against. I mean, that defense that defense is good. I think strictly for that, um, they've looked good with Drew Locke. Even if Drew Locke plays again, JSN's a dog. Commanders can't stop anybody, so I think I'm feeling pretty good about Seahawks minus seven. I'm gonna stick with that. Um I think the commanders have some work to do. So um Seahawks minus seven.
SPEAKER_01Hey, same value here. Here's another team at minus 305, and that's the Seahawks this week. So if you felt sketchy about Detroit, you must feel a lot better with the Seahawks at that same value here as minus 305. Take the commanders plus seven. Right, right. Bang! If it's fl if the river's flowing this way, we take the backpack. Um, yeah, I mean, I I gotta I I have to eat some crow because last week I was talking bad about Drew Locke, you know, Mr. I put on from my city, and I said that I just I didn't see him against New England do anything special when he stepped in and the offense looking like it was regressed. So I actually expected the Cardinals to be able to pull it off last week, and that game was closed for a second. But then Drew Locke, you know, he he was dealing to to Jackson Smith and Jigba.
SPEAKER_02He had like 10 days with the starting offense, you know, he had time to you know kind of adjust when you get thrown into a game, it's hard to be a backup quarterback in that game when the player of the quarterback gets injured, like Jameis Winston, I assume, has a little bit better of a comer comeback this weekend than he did on um Monday night.
SPEAKER_01But yeah. Yeah, and I mean if we think we have Sam Darnold does have a chance to play this game, and the offense look looks I mean they put up 31 points on Arizona, who people think has you know a scrappy defense. Um, they held the Chargers to 14 points in week one. Um I go Seahawks here. Seahawks money line. The biggest question is the minus seven. You guys know I wouldn't put that in a circle of trust, but for podcast purposes, let's go Seattle minus seven here while Washington starts to figure things out here without Jaden Daniels. Okay, next up we have the Tennessee Titans going to play the New York Giants this week. And Tennessee is an underdog on the road here at plus three. Giants are favored by three points at home. Analytics, though, are giving the Titans a 59% chance to win this matchup in big part because we saw Jackson Dart go down last night with a knee injury, and he's potentially facing a season-ending knee injury. Man, moment of silence if that happens, because I know a lot of Giants fans out there, including a part-time one in you, that had some high hopes for this team, but that changes their whole trajectory if he's out for the season. Um, weather looking good in MetLife, Cloudy, 67. TC, let's break it down here. Three-point favorite for the Giants, but you know, is Jameis Winston the guy that they throw in here? Who's who's stepping in for them? You know, and neighbors too.
SPEAKER_02Um, you know, I I don't know what that injury was. I don't know. I have I just looked it up. I can't find any real reports from Raptor from anybody like you know explaining how long he's gonna be out. But man, I just so devastating to the Giants. It's like, you know, can you bounce back from that? And it was weird, they weren't running a scatterboo, which was like, you know, kind of like a it feels like the coaches don't like him, but Jackson Darn as a quarterback was like, I want my guy in there, and so it's like does that change the chemistry of that team without him being a quarterback and James Winston really bringing that back? But at the same time, Tennessee Titans are the Tennessee Titans. Um, you know, um they did put up 20 on the Titans. They did put up 20 on the Eagles, they did put up, you know, I mean, only put up 10 against the Jets. Um you know, I hate this game. I'm gonna go for the Titans, get their first win. Another upside of the week, Titans money line, Titans plus three on this one. Don't know why, just kind of a sloppy game. Probably wouldn't touch it, but you know, if I'm up that day, maybe I'll throw a little sprinkle on the Titans and go.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, for the Giants, I mean, I think it really comes down to who's gonna be your quarterback, but Jameis Winston, uh, not looking good.
SPEAKER_02It is a short week, so it's you know, six days of practice with the first starting offense. Back to my point, you know, like you know, it's it's a little different when you play it on Monday and you get thrown in and you gotta go like you know, five straight days of practice to a game, which you probably have a day off.
SPEAKER_01So yeah, and definitely don't like uh Malik Neighbors being questionable here. It says with a shoulder, but estimated to return September 27th. So I I'd say he does have a has a good chance that, yeah, potentially. Um, I'll just go Giants here for a weird reason. Maybe their defense carries them away, Scataboo steps up, Malik Neighbors ends up getting to play. Uh Tennessee, I want to see him win a game. I mean, I want to see them do it all the way through, and until they do it all the way through, I'll just go more Giants culture over Tant's culture and give them the win here. Uh well, let's go Tennessee plus three, though, because if they win a dramatic field goal. All right, all right. All right, New England Patriots one and one going to play the Jags this week at one-and-one as well, too. Jaguars favored by three points at home here, with analytics giving them a 56% chance to win this matchup. Um, injuries-wise, no one majored a shout out for either team, and weather all looking good across the board this week, 82 degrees. TC, I'll take this one away first here. What my question, what what what's go like I the Patriots won last week, but they also lost these teams.
SPEAKER_02What's going on with both these teams?
SPEAKER_01What's going on? You know, a little bit, you know, one team looks good week one and the Jags, but then hey, here comes Denver. They go to Denver, they're not able to get the win last week. They lose 20 to 13.
SPEAKER_02Trevor Lawrence doesn't look good in the second half, you know, a little sloppy errors, but then also the Patriots, like Drake May. Does he look good this year? Weird game.
SPEAKER_01I'm gonna go Jags. I the Patriots were in the Super Bowl last week, so I you know got it get last week, last year. So you gotta give him credit for what that is. But I'll just ride more of you know the Jaguars being home. They put up 30 plus points week one. I haven't seen the Patriots offense go off. Um AJ Brown, he's been out for you know four weeks. We're not gonna see him until like week five now. Um it's weird to say, but uh I kind of trust the Jags more right now. Um so I'll take the Jags and well, it's right there on the nose with minus three, but I'll go ahead and I'll take that too. Let's uh let's ride doval this week on the podcast.
SPEAKER_02I'm right there with you. Um I think the Broncos defense stepped up. Yes, Trevor Lawrence made a couple errors, but I I think what I saw in the week one and in the first half of the Broncos game, um, Trevor Lawrence looked a little bit more composed. Um Drake may like the Patriots just look kind of sloppy. I don't know what's going on. They can't score. Um the defense is solid though. The defense is solid. It's iffy, you know. I mean it's a good idea.
SPEAKER_01The defense got like twenty two or twenty two fantasy points last week, twenty two or twenty five, something like that. So they play the Steelers. That's a good point.
SPEAKER_02That's a good point. So I am not gonna ride the high on the Patriots beating the Steelers. Um I'm gonna ride high on the Jaguars, barely losing to the Broncos. Um, Jags minus three, Jags money line as well. Don't think this will be on circle of trust because this is a weird game. There's a couple of these this week, but I I you know there's a couple games you feel like you can snipe.
SPEAKER_01So, with that being said, we're gonna go Jag Circle of Trust this week. We're gonna go Lion Circle of Trust this week, Colt Circle of Trust, Bengals Circle of Trust, Panthers Circle of Trust. Uh, all those fringe games that we're picking these winners. Let's just cook up a plus a thousand, you know, call it a week. All right, let's go next up to the NFC West. We have the Arizona Cardinals at one and one going to play the San Francisco 49ers at 2-0. Uh San Francisco opened up as an 11.5 point favorite this week, but that's now shrunk down to eight and a half points here. Biggest analytics of the week giving the Niners a 90% chance to win this matchup here. Is this the game that TC thinks is going to be the mega upset this week here? Because I know he has a thing secretly for the Niners on the side, and also kind of the Vikings, too, if you really follow him around. Um, 72 degrees in San Francisco. 8.5 points. There's that eight and a half number again that we got cursed with last week with the Bucks and the Ravens. How's this one going down in the Bay, TC? This is not the upset.
SPEAKER_02I love 49ers. I'm high on them. They're the best team in the NFL. 8.5 isn't enough. Give me the 49ers by 10. Um, yeah, I think they're just solid. Everything about them. I I mean defense looks great, offense looks great, they're putting up points. Um Cardinals have been pleasantly surprising. Um, you know, yeah, but not last week.
SPEAKER_01With a backup quarterback for you know Seattle. It was close there for a second, and then they just crumbled.
SPEAKER_02Um I yeah, I think it's the 49ers. Uh, until they're stopped, I'm not gonna stop believing in them. Um, eight and a half, I I don't think is enough. I like it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I'm kind of having flashbacks uh to 2019 Super Bowl and 2022 Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers, but those two teams in each conference have looked like some of the best that we've seen. And then those two, those two teams are used to winning as well, too. So if they get hot and they have postseason experience, it's it's not what we all want to see, but it's what we have seen before. And uh they're they're off to a great start.
SPEAKER_02I saw an interview with George Kittle, too, and it's like he's like, you don't understand like the 49ers like what they do for the team. He's like, they have breakfast, lunch, and dinner served all by the team seven days a week. Unlike most other NFL teams. He's like, you have a personal trainer, you have a personal nutritionist, you have like as much you know medication as you need. They have a whole medical staff just on campus the whole time. So like I know there's a whole thing about them being next to the electrical facility, you know, the power plant, but like that team has a culture of winning and they live and breathe football. I think you know, you see Christian McCaffrey posting the pictures in the offseason of him just getting right. It's like, you know, I think that's the 49ers culture that they build. So I'm high on the 49ers this week. Definitely eyeing for the Ciro Call Trust and potentially Survivor.
SPEAKER_01All right, let's go. I mean, how do I take Cardinals plus eight and a half after that tee-up that you had there? No, Cardinals could have covered eight and a half for me this week if they looked better against Seattle last week, but uh they crumbled at the end of that. And if Seattle can do a number on them at their home court, 31-7, then the Niners get them at home this week. Um, I keep going bang bang Niner gang here. Bang, bang, niner gang. Now the question is mine is 485. So, you know, what what type value could you get for a circle of trust this week? But no, not not stepping off of that right now. Okay, Minnesota Vikings at 2-0, going to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 0-2 here. Uh, spread has the Vikings very close here. One and a half point favorites on the road with analytics giving Minnesota a 54% chance to win this matchup here at TC. As far as injuries go, Jordan Mason is out. He's on IR with a thumb for the Vikings. He'll be back October 25th. No other major marquee name to shout out. And the weather looking hot in Tampa here with 87 degrees.
SPEAKER_02Gross game. Gross game. Gross game. Vikings minus one and a half, Vikings money line. I want the Bucs to lose, so the Panthers look better than the NFC South. Vikings have a good defense. Both teams look bad on offense. Bucks look bad on defense, too. At least the Vikings have something good going for them. Vikings minus one and a half, Vikings money line.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I'll go ahead and second. I'll go ahead and second that. Uh Tampa, I mean, you screwed us last week. You could not beat the Browns.
SPEAKER_02I stayed away from that game. Thank God. I stayed away from that game.
SPEAKER_01You screwed me and my friends last week. That's that's who you did it, too. So you you pay the price. We take Minnesota minus.
SPEAKER_02That's crazy. I had that in my pod. You know, sometimes I knew I think like I said that last week, that there's something weird about that game that I was staying away from. I think the Bucks might lose every game this year, which would be sick.
SPEAKER_01Oh, jeez. Okay, let's go next up. We got Baltimore Ravens at one and one going to play the Dallas Cowboys. TC, we have an NFL game in Brazil. Ay, ay, ay, ay, aye. Let's get it bopping here. Um in I have an upset pick to make. Oh, there we go. Sounds like you like the boys this week. Um, the Ravens are three and a half point favorites on the road here. Uh, analytics has given Baltimore a 54% chance to win this matchup. Zay Flowers is still questionable. That was a big loss for the Ravens last week. Um, we don't know if he's gonna play uh down there in Brazil, uh, but that's something to take into consideration. And then as far as the Cowboys go, Malik Hooker, the safety is doubtful with the forearm. Uh, you calling Cowboys here? This is uh something you feel good about. Baltimore can't be trusted after last week losing to the Saints. The Cowboys now can be trusted after beating Washington.
SPEAKER_02You know, the Ravens last year, I don't know if you remember, but like I was kind of out on them because it's like there's something weird going on. They fired their head coach, you know, they brought in a new one, and it's like you're not hating the ball to Derrick Henry at all in the second half. You could have ran out that clock, you're losing again because you're making bad coaching decisions. This isn't because Lamar Jackson isn't a dog, because I think he is a dog. Derrick Henry's a dog, but there's some something wrong with that team, and I can't I just smell it. You know, it's like I don't know what's happening. Why are you losing these games? But you're not losing games, you're not winning games, you're supposed to win. Right. And the Cowboys have looked good this year. Yes, I get it. They're one. Not one, but you know, but I I mean you lost against the Giants, still put up 20, and I think the Giants have a good defense, which we have talked about. Um, I think you go out and beat the commanders, you get a division win. Um, I like you guys against the Ravens. I'm gonna take you guys money line and plus three and a half. I think I have more faith in you. It's a weird travel game as well. So it's like, you know, it's one of those games where you're just like, this is weird. You know what I do think? Over under 52 and a half, I think points, points, points. Neither of you guys play defense. Points, points, points. Dak Prescott's my quarterback. Four TDs last week. Give me another four this week. I love it. Um, I think it's gonna be a banger game to watch, but I think the Cowboys end up coming out on top.
SPEAKER_01Okay. All right, there you go. I like I like the love you have for Jerry's world here. Um, you know, Baltimore last week, oh, you know, winners, circle of trust, everything like that. But that game was 17-17. By the way, I don't think Tyler Shuck crossed the goal line. I don't know if you watched it on Red Zone. We didn't ball did not cross the goal line there. That was not a touchdown. And they gave him the touchdown, and on top of that, they didn't call the face mask, and he's getting pulled back by his face mask, too. So I I actually I think that was an illegitimate win by the Saints because the ball actually didn't cross. So if it's not going to cross, we can't crown them a winner and give him six points and etc. Um, my concern, yeah, right. My uh my concern for the Ravens is no Zay Flowers. I mean, that's that's a big loss. He's so potent, you know, he totally takes the top off of a defense. Um, gosh, such a such a hit or miss game here. Um, yeah, for rooting's sake, I'll I'll go with Cowboys here for you. Plus 145, plus three and a half. I believe you can believe. That's your squad. Maybe a little plus three and a half on the side this week, and also maybe an over on the side with you as well.
SPEAKER_02Just take a little moneyline, ride the boys in a single, you know, just moneyline bullets. I like that in a single. I think I'll be taking that seeing as I didn't lose all my money in the 11 o'clock slate. Um, it's a it's a Rio game. It's in Brazil. Something weird's had to happen, right? Why not an upset?
SPEAKER_01Ah, let's get it. How about them boys down in Brasilia? Let's see if we can get it done. All right, let's go. Next up, we have the Raiders at 2-0. Ooh, Raiders! 2-0. Division winners going to play the New Orleans Saints at 1-1. Uh, the Saints are three-point favorites at home here. Analytics has given New Orleans a 65% chance to win this matchup here. Injuries-wise, no one major to shout out, and this game's in a dome. Are the Raiders getting disrespected here at 2-0? And they're three-point underdogs on the road here, TC. I I don't know.
SPEAKER_02Like, the Raiders, I don't want to say, are a good team because they beat the Dolphins and the Chargers are two bad teams, which we have firmly established. Whereas the Saints beat the Ravens, uh, and it was like a weird fluke win. They lost to the Lions, they played them tightly.
SPEAKER_01They played them well.
SPEAKER_02I think the Saints are a pretty legit team, so I think the line is fair. Just a hard decision. I mean, I want the Raiders to win because I need the Saints to lose to win the Panthers, you know, the Panthers to win the division, but that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about this game, and I truly believe the Saints are a good team. I do fear them after last week. I'm gonna go Saints minus three and Saints moneyline. I hate how good they seem, and I hope I'm wrong. This is a pick I would love to lose this week. Um, but I think the Saints are good.
SPEAKER_01Hey, we got some good NFC South matchups coming up this season. If the Panthers continue to win games, and also if the Saints can continue to win games too. We have two teams from the NFC South in the playoffs. That would be I mean, that'd be crazy. Chris Olave came out and said this week he's he feels like he's never been around for them to beat a good team and for them to go to Baltimore and beat the Ravens. He felt like that was their first big win. Um, but you know, they very easily could have beat the Lions as well, too, in week one, who you know, we think is a legit.
SPEAKER_02And the play to go for it, you know. Yeah, I do I do love them for not tying that game. I would have been so mad if it tied. Go for two. That was the right play. So just gotta think the Saints, you know, you got a ballsy head coach too, you know, keep running with the boys.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, so I'm gonna I'm gonna go New Orleans in this one here. Good to see the Raiders at 2-0. We got friends of the podcast and co-hosts that love the Raiders as well, too. Uh, but I'm I'm not a believer yet. I I I gotta uh I've got to see a whole lot more for them to really become a believer in the Raiders. Gotta be the good team.
SPEAKER_02Gotta be the good team.
SPEAKER_01If you beat the Saints, I believe. You beat the Saints, I believe. It's one of those franchises where you know, year in and year out, it's uh it's a whole lot of agony uh going on there. So let's let's stack some more chips for the Raiders here. I see their social media team cooking a little bit over there. Um, but yeah, I'll I'll go Saints here in this coin flip game. Okay, TC, let's get some we talking Sunday night football here, and this is gonna be in your home city right now, Denver, Colorado. We have the Los Angeles Rams going to play the Denver Broncos both at one and one here. Very tight spread that we have. The Rams are two and a half point favorites on the road here, and analytics is giving Los Angeles a 64% chance to win this matchup. J.K. Dobbins is questionable for the Broncos, and also Puka Nakua is still questionable for the Rams as well, too, with Miles Garrett being on IR. The Rams got back on track on Monday night, getting a 28-6 win against the Giants, but also so did the Broncos getting their first home win against the season against a team that we respect in the Jacksonville Jaguars and the AFC. Both teams at one-and-one, tight game, two and a half point spread. Who are we going with here on Sunday night? I'll kick it off here, TC. Yeah, go ahead. Man it's a good one. This is a good game. I think this is a high defensive good game, but my you know, my instincts is like, well, the Broncos won last week. The Jaguars are pretty good. They're at home, their defense stepped up. This is what we expected from Denver, who is a team who's in the semifinal last year, losing to the Patriots. The Rams, on the other hand, though, they got back on track on Monday night. The offense opened up for sure. Devontae Adams went crazy on Monday night, too. And Matt Stafford does what we expect him to do and throw in four touchdowns as well, too. This is a Sincontacto, no touch type game for me. I'm just gonna go, I'm gonna go Denver at home and Denver's defense and Denver money line. That's that's where my that's where my instincts are taking me right now. Um the Rams gotta go do it. They gotta go do it on the road. Uh, I you know, I don't think Puka Nakua's gonna play. So if you get Pat Sertan ISO'd up against Puka Nakua, he can, you know, Tay, sorry, he can neutralize him. I I'm playing this as Puka Nakua is not gonna play. Right. So I I think that gives him a solid, you know, instrument. And um yeah, I'm just gonna follow my instincts here.
SPEAKER_02I'm honestly surprised. Um, I was writing down my pick before you made yours. I have Broncos money line and Broncos plus two and a half. Um, and I'm surprised because you're a big Rams. Well, why?
SPEAKER_01Because we you know, I think Rams can go to the Super Bowl, but it's just not it's not right now, because right now that's a huge injury to deal with with Bukinakua.
SPEAKER_02Um he's a game changer. I think the Giants have a good front defense. I don't know if they have the best um DBs, and the Broncos defense showed up against Trevor Lawrence and a team that, you know, I think can put up 40 every week. Um, so I think the Broncos defense is gonna be able to give Stafford a little bit harder of a time. You know, then again, you know, you have to plan for having Aaron Donald on the field, you know. So the Broncos have a good enough O-line to allow them to score. You're gonna have to triple team him like we saw the picture of the Giants triple teaming him last night. Um, I believe that this is gonna be a high defensive game. Um, so over under 45 and a half. Um, you know, this is a game I think of the same as you. I would not touch um unless you fan one way, but I I feel better about Broncos with points. Um, and I think, you know, why not get an upset on Sunday night? So we'll go Broncos moneyline.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, by the way, too. You know, we're thinking about we crown the Rams as Super Bowl winners on paper, and a big part of that is they acquire the defensive player of the year in Miles Garrett, but he's out right now, so you don't have that component going on for you too. Aaron Donald came back, but Aaron Donald had you know three tackles uh on Monday night, so he's kind of finding his form.
SPEAKER_02Well, he's getting double teamed or triple teamed, and so that's like it takes an O-line. You gotta you gotta count for that. Um, you know, if he's single team, you know, I think he'd have a lot more. So but I think the Broncos have an O-line to be able to, you know, kind of fight that.
SPEAKER_01All right, so we're both on the ponies this week, surprisingly, for podcast purposes. Um, you know, sometimes I can't let you go first here because when you go first, then I I I follow you. It's it's too hard to think opposite sometimes when someone tees it up in the right direction. Oh, you know, yeah, Cowboys. That that sounds kind of good. I'm gonna come follow you over there. All right, let's finish it up here, TC. Monday night, Monday night, Monday night football, and we got the Philadelphia Eagles going to play the Chicago Bears this week. Eagles are 2-0 on the season, Bears 1-1, and devastating injury that Chicago faced with Caleb Williams.
SPEAKER_02But not that devastating apparently.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, let's give it a read. Bears head coach Ben Johnson said that he doesn't anticipate Williams hamstring practicing in week three, though Johnson was unwilling to officially rule out the quarterback from playing Monday against the Eagles. I mean, the way he got carted off the field and was crying, that looked like a season-ending injury to me. That's just what I saw.
SPEAKER_02I like I the memes are going around today, and it's hilarious. Like everybody thought the same thing. Like, I was like, I saw no contact. You're like, oh, he had to have torn something. You know, the fact that it's like, oh, he's not even torn. He might be back this week. It's kind of embarrassing. Um it, you know, I know his nails aren't painted anymore, but it's kind of going back to the whole like zesty guy, like you're gonna fake an injury to lose this game. Maybe did you just not want to play in the rain anymore? You know? Um, so I I was high on the Bears after they beat us that much, and now it's kind of like that's an embarrassing team to be a fan of. But the Eagles have they looked great this year? 2-0.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, 2-0, but but not dominant, right? They didn't dominate Washington. That game came down to the wire. Stefan Dix jumped up against the goalpost and cost his team a 15-yard penalty. That was a little difficult. And then uh Eagles 17-17 against Tennessee, right down to the wire, they squeak it out. Um, a few things to shout out. Dallas Goddard is doubtful for the Eagles, so that's a big loss weapon for them. And also Saquon Barkley is questionable with a shoulder as well, too. This is I, you know, who look, and I'll tee it up for you here first. When I'm going around, just pick, pick, pick, pick, pick. If it's no Caleb Williams, it's Eagles money line for me. I've just I'm not I'm not around to Tyson Bajent, Bears moneyline yet. Um, more on the side of Eagles history, Eagles culture. Jalen Hurts will find a way to get a win, Eagles money line. Um you know, with Caleb Williams being back, though, that that could make a differentiating factor here. I also don't love Dallas Goddard being out because they really do rely on him almost like a wide receiver, too, to go along with Devontae Smith's production. Um, I'm gonna play this as Caleb Williams is not gonna play. So I'll take Eagles' money line. I'll also take Eagles to cover the four and a half as well, too. I do want to see Saquon Barkley come back from the stinger. Uh, he had like two fantasy points last week, so pretty underwhelming against Tennessee. I would like to put Eagles in circle of trust, but something is making me hesitate here with Goddard being out and also Saquon Barkley being questionable. Um, but yeah, I'll take the Eagles and the cover for this podcast. What about you?
SPEAKER_02You know, we said it best last week. Like the Eagles played down to the teams that they're gonna play, but like somehow they always win. Um find a way. I think they have a ri I mean they just don't like the Bears that much. It's not like the biggest rivalry, but like I just they have a little bit of B for the Bears. I I'm gonna stick with the Eagles as well. I don't feel good about this game. This is like a okay, if I'm up a lot this week, I will bet on this game. But if not, I might just kick back and watch it on Monday night because I'm just unsure. Maybe if you know you hear a little bit more definition of like quarterback options, um, you know, if we you know some of those players that are questionable are you know are doubtful or out. But for right now, I'll stick with the Eagles because I trust them more than the Bears with a backup quarterback. Um but you know, who knows? This game could that game could get ugly.
SPEAKER_01Alright, so that concludes it then here, TC. We achieved everything, but now it's time to cook and really come down to what do we feel best about this week as we go through here. So let's get some parlay with the G's action going down this week. And let's start off with you here. Who are you eyeing for your week three circle of trust?
SPEAKER_02Oh man, um I said at the beginning of this podcast, I think I'm gonna stick with it. Um I'm gonna stick with five money lines, um, and I think there's a uh a couple ones that are kind of like, you know, gimme's. You know, I like the 49ers a lot, you know. Um I like the Seahawks a lot. Um and honestly, I like the Bills a lot too. But I think that I need a little bit more value. I'm gonna stick with two other teams that I've been trusting this year, and I'm gonna trust them until they let me down. That is gonna be the Cincinnati Bengals and the Carolina Panthers. We're gonna put them again in the circle of trust. We did it last week, it worked out, we're gonna do it again. So we are going to lock in a five-leg parlay plus four twenty-nine, the Buffalo Bills moneyline, the Seattle Seahawks moneyline, the 49ers moneyline, the Carolina Panthers moneyline, the Bengals moneyline for plus four twenty-nine. Five total? Yeah, five total. Um let me go let me rip it out in order of how they're gonna play. Cincinnati Bengals money line, Buffalo Bills moneyline, Seattle Seahawks money line, Carolina Panthers money line, San Francisco forty niners money line, plus four twenty nine, five leg money line parlay.
SPEAKER_01All right, let's get after it. Four X on the return here. This week coming out. Five legs total. Need a big one.
SPEAKER_02Feel good about those games.
unknownGo.
SPEAKER_01All right. So for me this week, ooh, do I want to add the Eagles in there? Give me a little plus three and a half action. Mmm. So I got a problem right now. I'm not able to get the Eagles on an alternate line. But I'm not sure if I'm confident enough to take Philly on the money line.
SPEAKER_02You're probably going to Monday. You know, it's like have it hit on a Sunday.
SPEAKER_01I don't mind. I mean, if if I got a team on a money line, you know, and it and it comes down to money line, I'm just fine with that. But I can't do an alternate spread. So I'm going to give you two teasers and I'm going to give you four money lines for this week. We got a deal? Okay. I like it. Alright, let's start off. Let's go Seahawks moneyline with you as well. I like it. That team's in the circle of trust right now. Okay. Buffalo moneyline. They're way in their circle of trust right now. And we're going to spite the Chargers this week. Let's go next up. Chiefs, moneyline. Minus 850. What could go wrong? Chiefs, moneyline. We love them. We also go San Francisco 49ers. Money line. We love them. Four money lines for you this week. Those are the ones we feel best about. Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs, Niners. It's time for two teasers right here. And I have one variable, and that variable is going to be the Lions. But I'm going to go Detroit Lions plus three and a half. If the Jets win, I think it's something dramatic, like by a field goal. So I'm going to go Lions plus three and a half here this week. And then I'm going to go to Cincinnati. I like Cincinnati on a money line this week, so I love them on a teaser at plus three and a half as well, too. But that's going to be my other one. And I would consider Philadelphia Eagles plus three and a half this week as well, too. Those are the ones. So your 40 money lines for this week are Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs, and Niners. And let's tease the Lions and the Bengals at plus three and a half this week as well, too. Honorable mentions would be Green Bay and Philadelphia on some teasers as well, too. But something about the Packers game on Thursday night makes me not wanting to put them money line in the circle of trust here this week. So I got two teasers for you, and I got four money lines right now.
SPEAKER_02Yeah. I'm questioning do you have a parlay place for Thursday night? I was just looking at that. I have a boost on DraftKings right now. You know, want to give the people a little something to get started with the week. I can start with mine if you want to cook yours up. Yep. Cook it. Um so something weird about this game, you know, the Packers are um, I just I don't know if I can trust them enough to be like super, you know, oh, I'm gonna take them on Team Toto or anything. Um I feel weird about it, and I'm gonna ride the Falcons. Um, this is an all Falcon four-leg parlay. Um so any of you Falcons fans out there, you let me know if you like this one. We have Falcons plus ten and a half. I think if they lose this game, 10 is a lot of points to lose by. I'm gonna go Falcons plus 10 and a half. Bichon, he's the guy. I'm gonna go over a hundred rushing and receiving yards. You know, rather, you know, Peenix is getting it out in the air or he's handing it off. I think you know Bijan's gonna be a weapon if they're gonna come out and stay in this game. Also, Drake London. You know, those guys were pissed on the sidelines yes last week after the game. So I think they're talking up with you know Michael Peenix, like, hey, you know, we need the ball or we're gonna leave. Um, so I'm gonna take him over 40 receiving yards. And then Michael Peenix, you know, he's the facilitator. He's gotta make all this happen. You know, his yards aren't that great right now, so I got him at plus 170 yards. So to repeat that, it's a four-legg parlay. It's plus one sixty-two. I have Atlanta Falcons plus 10 and a half, B. John Robinson 100 yards rushing and receiving, Drake London 40 receiving yards, Michael Peenix 170 passing yards.
SPEAKER_01Let's get it.
SPEAKER_02SGP Packers won, because I'm sure you have the Packers one.
SPEAKER_01All right, so here's what I'll do, and this is what I'll end up texting in the group two. Um, I'm in I I'm into win, just win, win, win, win, win. It's the same thing I did um on Monday night as well, too. So it's a two-pick parlay, but what you what you need to get to to get to these two-pick parlays is you have to have greater than minus 200 odds, and then DraftKings is gonna give you a 50% boost. So I'm gonna I'm gonna double your money here. If you're willing to go up to a max wager of $100, this is the play uh to double your investment here on Thursday night. We're gonna keep it simple. Packers money line, and let's go over 34 and a half total. The game will get to 35 points. Test your theory.
SPEAKER_02Uh the Packers don't have a great defense. I like that, you know? And I think it's a Thursday night. Hopefully, we see a little bit of electricity.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, so Packers money line. Don't want any risk there of if they win by one or two points. And then I could have taken Packers 20 points, um, but that doesn't give you plus 100 with the 50% boost that DraftKings is offering. So let's go Packers money line. Let's go over 34 and a half points. Um, who would I eye as far as player props go? Uh, I love rushing receiving, so I'm gonna eye Bijan Robinson. I mean, you could give him like 80 rushing and receiving, feel good about something like that. Uh, as far as receiving goes, I've been liking Christian Watson this season. He's on my fantasy team, so I'd get him at around, let's say like 50 yards. Here, I'll cook you a little plus 300 right now. Uh rushing, receiving. Let's go 80. Oh, yeah, that's way over. Okay, so let's just go those four. So Packers money line. Okay. 35 points in the game. Uh, it's got to be rushing plus receiving. Let's see what you get here for Bijan. Yeah, the party starts for him at like 100.
SPEAKER_02That's what I took 100 at. That's why I took a okay.
SPEAKER_01So so 100 rushing and receiving for B. John Robinson, 50 yards catching for Christian Watson. Uh, that gets us a plus 342.
SPEAKER_02Wow. Okay, that's actually four legs. Pretty solid.
SPEAKER_01Now, now, if you want to get the 50% boost though, do you risk it with some player props? I'm not the type that does that. So I'm gonna keep going with the two-pick parlays with the 50% boost, get the win, move on to the next standalone game, which is Sunday night, move on to the next standalone game, which is Monday night. Um, but yeah, those are the two that I love the most, and then the two players I trust this game. Okay. All right. Shall we uh shall we survive this week? Sure, sure. We can survive. I have survived. I've survived. Uh but before that, well, some TD scores, maybe we want to shout out.
SPEAKER_02You know, you know, I already got something cooked up.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, we're hoping you'd ask. We can't uh we can't overlook the success you've had with TD scores.
SPEAKER_02So look, this is my theory for this week. Like I shot for the moon and I got you know, I got X on a lot of my par ways that were like 11k plus, you know, the payout's just crazy. So I'm gonna kind of go a little bit conservative here because I want to hit some money this week. Withdrew 350 last week, um, seeing if we can you know hit another number like that, you know. So we're gonna stay a little lighter this week. If you get up, you know, up on a Thursday night, up on a Saturday, if you bet on college football and you want to shoot for the home runs, you know, we can pick in some crazy ones. But these are four guys that I feel safe about. We talked about the Bills. Everybody on the Bills is gonna score. You know who's really gonna score? It's James Cook. Cook T. Everybody talked about how you cooking over there, Cook. About how he didn't get enough TDs because Josh Allen's gonna take it. You know, I think they give him the ball. Wittily's head coach was like, hey, we're gonna let you score this game. You know, that he loves James Cook. So I think James Cook, Sherrin T D. Then we're gonna go on to your Kansas City Chiefs. You like the Chiefs to win that game. They're playing the Dolphins. Dolphins are a bad team. I think there's gonna win. Who was this the Super Bowl um MVP? Kenneth Walker. So we're gonna take Kenneth Walker. This is an all-RB. This is an all-RB parlay as well, because I do like to keep the position players the same. Something about it just makes me feel good. It tickles that part of my brain. Another game where I think teams score a lot of points, but the defense is pretty bad, is the Steelers' defense is pretty bad. So I'm gonna go with Chase Brown on the Bengals. Um, I think that they're going to be run heavy on the game. Yes, they have Jamar Chase. Chase Brown has already got a TDD this year. I know if they're in the red zone and they got something close to the um, you know, five-yard line or below, they're probably gonna hand it off. So I like Chase Brown. And then the last one, I feel this is a pretty easy one. We talked about it. It's gonna be a massive scoring game. Over under's 52 and a half for the Ravens, Cowboys. I love the Cowboys, but who's the best player on the Ravens team outside of Omar Jackson? Derrick Henry. It's Derrick Henry. So that is a four-legged score by four four is the magic number. And plus four forty-four. It's a sign. Four leg plus four forty-four. James Cook anytime T D, Kenneth Walker anytime T D, Chase Brown anytime TD, and Derrick Henry anytime TD.
SPEAKER_01I love it. Let's get it. Let's go. All right, TC, for me, as far as touchdown scores, who would I trust all across the NFL? Um, let's start it off with this here. Bills? James Cook. James Cook. I'll take him with you. Let's let's write out. Lions, Jameer Gibbs. I love it. Let's trust him. Let's go with you there. Niners, Christian McCaffrey. Let's trust him. Let's go with him there. Ravens, Derek Henry. Let's trust him. That is a great one. That is a great one. Those are the four guys I trust.
SPEAKER_02What is that odds? What are the odds? Yeah, let's cook it. You gotta be a little bit less than me on that one. It's probably like plus 280? Plus 300?
SPEAKER_01Let's see. James Cook. We go Jameer Gibbs. We go Derek Henry. We finish up with a little CMC. Where are you at, CMC? See if I can find that game. Sometimes they don't. Yeah, we we are we are recording this on a Tuesday. Yes.
SPEAKER_02Um well what are your odds at now? And you know, we gotta assume he's probably gonna be minus like 200.
SPEAKER_01So Yeah, for that right now, you're looking at plus two oh three. Not bad. Okay, so you probably get like plus 300 with those.
SPEAKER_02I like it. Solid picks.
SPEAKER_01Alright, here we go. Moment of truth. We sinking. We sinking or we swimming this week. One team. Uh remind me, who is your pick last week?
SPEAKER_02I started off the leak. Um first week I had Jaguars. Last week I had the Eagles. So Tuna. I'm still surviving. Wow. Sketchy games.
SPEAKER_01Um sketchy, but uh I'm so happy you didn't pick the Bucks last week. I don't know what instincts told you not to do it, but that's great.
SPEAKER_02There was something. You know, and I'm not gonna I'm gonna go with a game that I feel pretty safe with this week too. Like give me the Chiefs. I I think I'm gonna survive again. You know, bigger spread of the week. Give me the Chiefs, we're playing the Dolphins, we're now a bad team. Um I I was in between them and the Seahawks, and you know, I think that like it when the Seahawks get um Sam Darnold back, they will be in my circle of trust, be in my survivor, but I'm gonna let them heal another week in case he has to heal and go with the Chiefs because they just look good. They win games.
SPEAKER_01I'm with you all the way, brother. I I just locked it in now. I'm going Kansas City Chiefs is my survivor pick. Thankfully, we bought our way back in in week two, but there's no losing from here on out. So stay tuned for parley with the Gs. We'll keep surviving each week. TC, been a pleasure, my brother. Week three. It's time to get back in the win column. It's time to get back in the win column. Let's get it. All right, we'll see you guys on the next one. Peace.