Mountain Trends

📊 2024 Summit County Real Estate Market Update | Key Trends & Insights 

🏡 Wondering what’s happening in the Summit County real estate market? Amy Nakos and Candice De from the Amy Nakos Group at Your Castle Summit break down the latest 2024 Year-End Market Report! 

📈 In this video, we cover: 

✅ Home Price Trends – Is appreciation still going strong? 

✅ Days on Market – How quickly are homes selling? 

✅ Inventory Changes – Are we in a buyer’s or seller’s market? 

✅ Sale-to-List Ratios – Are homes selling above or below asking? 

📍 We also analyze major submarkets: 

✔ Breckenridge 

✔ Dillon 

✔ Frisco 

✔ Keystone 

✔ Silverthorne 

✔ Copper Mountain 

💡 Looking for expert insight on macroeconomic trends and the forces shaping the market? This video gives you the facts—and the “why” behind the numbers! 

📩 Have questions about the market? Let’s talk! 

📞 Call/Text: 303-870-9300

📧 Email: candice@amynakos.com

💻 Website: amynakos.com

Transcript

Welcome to Mountain Real Estate, where we bring you the latest insights on real estate from Denver to Summit County, Colorado. I'm your host, Candice De, a realtor, investor, engineer, mom, and Colorado native. 

Today we are going to talk about mountain trends for Q4 of 2024.  we have shared some different versions of trends. And today we're going to look at a very big picture over the last several years. And Amy Nakos is here to join me as well. Hello. 

All right. Here we have the cover of our beautiful Mountain Trends magazine. This is a property that we sold this summer on Emerald Lane up in Ruby Ranch. Isn't it gorgeous? It's very pretty. Yes. I'll take it. I'll take it. All right, let's get started here.  this Mountain Trends, this entire book at Booklet is looking at the year 2024. And as we get into comparisons, it's going to compare to 2023.  note that we'll be looking at year over year comparison.  it's pretty broad picture of the market because our brokerage also covers Grand County. 

We have this slide which compares Summit to Grand County. This is an average price of all properties.  not just single-family homes, not just condos, the entire market.  what you can see here is that Summit County, we're almost at $1.5 million average price. And you can see at Grand County, we are there at the 900-ish number.  our properties are 55% higher. I guess that's the number, right? Candice, who knows numbers? All right. We also have Denver on here just to show where the markets align with Denver. Average pricing in Denver is around, I think, 640. Is that the number we said? Yeah. Okay. Good. Next slide. 

Candice, I'll let you tackle this one. All right.  I'll start and feel free to jump in. We have listed here our separate sub-markets by geography and we're looking at average price. number of properties sold and months of inventory. And really, as the arrows indicate, if they're green, they're generally better for sellers. If they're red, they're generally worse for sellers. And the first two columns are looking at trends compared to 2023.  really, one of the things that jumped out to me was that our average price, as you saw in the last chart, continued to go up in almost all of our submarkets. In general, we went up about 10% across the county. We are seeing some pockets that have higher numbers of properties sold compared to 2023 and some with less.  

I'm just gonna run through them real quick.  Breck was about even a little bit more, a little bit of an increase from 2023. Copper was a big increase, but it's a small market.  Small changes have bigger percentage increases. Dillon was about the same as 2023. Frisco actually went down. Again, that's a smaller market. We only sold 117 properties in 2024.  it was a drop, but not a significant number, but a higher percentage. Keystone went up. There's a lot of new construction that has been happening over the last couple of years, some that came to market this year that led to an increase in number of properties sold. And then Wilderness had a small drop. Prices are flat. I think there's a couple of things going on there. We saw some new construction completed in 2023 and 2024, but I think more in 2023. And then we're also seeing the short-term rental regulations in wilderness kind of slow that market down a little bit. But overall, we had increase in prices and an increase in the number of properties sold from 2023. Our months of inventory, we're showing that these are still good for sellers. They're all under the six-month mark, which is really what our industry regards as a balanced market between buyers and sellers.  because we're under the six month mark, we're saying this is still good for sellers. 

Anything to add, Amy? No, I just think if I'll zoom out even further, one of the things that I like to share with people is in our entire market, entire Summit County for an entire year, 1200 properties sell.  you can think about, wow, that's a hundred properties a month.  we're not a big market like Denver. There's limited amount of properties that sell. Also, I think it's also interesting to see that the entire summit total went up 10% in 2024. That's more than I think we expected. I think we expected that the market was gonna be pretty flat. What we see with these numbers is that it increased 10%. We'll probably talk about this a little bit more as we get into the sub markets, but a lot of that, in my opinion, has to do with higher, higher end luxury properties pulling up that average. The luxury market has been very strong. 

Again, this chart here is the average price in Summit County. It takes out the Denver Grand comparison and then puts all properties on the purple line, condos on the black line. No surprises here. The trends are very similar. What's interesting on this is if you're looking at the 30 year trend line, you can see that summit jumped up above that trend line pretty dramatically in 2020, 2021. And that's from COVID, the COVID real estate purchases where people moved to areas that were more resort areas moved to where they wanted to live because they could work from anywhere. Now, anything else to add on that one? No, you have it covered. Number of properties sold. Yeah.  the interesting thing here is I think we all recognize that there was a drop, but the drop was 67% in 2023.  It felt significant. We had a small recovery in 2024, but it's pretty flat. But we're still above the lowest dip back in 2009.  Even though things were hot, we're still on a macro scale, kind of on trend for one of those slower years. Yeah, absolutely. 

I think this slide is really telling and what I love about it is it goes back to 2009 for two of these slides so we really can get perspective on this. These are three indicators where we're able to tell things about the market and where it's headed.  We have days on market, average days on market is the first box. The second is average discount.  This is where the property closed in comparison to where it was listed, the price it was listed when it went under contract. and the average months of inventory.  I'll talk quick about average days on market. I've been working in this market since 2004.  I was pretty familiar with the average days on market in 2009 and 2010, 2011, hitting almost a year.  That meant that almost every single property on the market sat at a year of time. When we were during COVID, it would be surprising to see these trend lines are showing maybe 25 days on the market, but that would be that some of them were pulling it higher, but properties were selling really, really quickly. What we can tell from this chart is you can see in 2016 is where the line drops a bit. Really since 2016, we've been in a seller's market here in terms of days on the market.  The last nine or 10 years have really been in favor of sellers. I don't see that trend changing too much. Average discount also interesting. You know, people are like, can I get 10% off the property? I want to offer 20% below to get 10% off. And we can tell you in our worst market that's never happened. In the worst of the worst, when we were in 2010, 2011, 2012, which was after the recession, but when Summit really hit their bottom, we were at 6, 6.5% off of list. We currently sit at about 3%.  You can see that the numbers have gone back up. That's also due to increased inventory and less sales. But for the most part, expect that if you're coming into this market as a buyer, if you get 3% off the list price, you're hitting the average. 

Average months of inventory, we haven't gotten above the six month market, we said six month point, which is what we consider more of a balanced market. You could say it's more of a buyer's market after six months, but the number is climbing. We'll see what future months present to us. But anecdotally, at the beginning of 2025, we're in the beginning of 25 right now, we're definitely seeing some good activity, similar activity that we've been seeing month over month, even in December and January.  I'm expecting that numbers are going to stay pretty much the same. Do you have anything to add on this one, Candice? Yeah, just one thing on the average discount. One of the things is that all of our comparables were in that 21 and 22 year when we were comparing in 23.  Our comparables have been higher.  Even though like the discount is still only 3%, our comps have such a wide range that I think sellers are still getting good prices. That's a great point. Yeah, because prices went up during that time a lot, which you can see from previous charts.  Even though you're now getting 3% off, the sellers are still capturing that giant increase that we had in 2021 and 22. Yes. Yeah. Well, I never thought of that. Good point. All right. 

We're gonna go into the sub markets now. We're gonna, you know, hit on these. But we'll talk about them briefly. Do you wanna take on Breckenridge here? Sure. Yeah, there's some common themes in all of them. I think generally, like you saw in the macro summit county chart, 23 saw dip in a lot of markets, including Breckenridge, which we're talking about here. An interesting thing is that single family homes are currently about 40 percent more expensive than the attached properties.  Like Amy said at the beginning, our luxury properties are bringing up our average prices. And in Breckenridge, we're at two million dollars. And that's for all property types. We do see more luxury properties in Breckenridge, and so we see that number kind of bringing up our overall average price, whereas the condo prices are staying a little bit more level. And our number of properties sold very similar to the overall Summit County charts, but there's been a big drop and 2024 stayed about level with 2023. Yeah, and I don't think we mentioned this in a previous chart, but we're at $1.5 million, about $1.48 for all properties. Our average single $2.488 million.  when you're coming into this market and you're saying you want a single family home, note that the middle, the average on that is about $2.5 to get a single family home. 

All right, copper. I used to live at copper. It's a small, tiny little sub market. There are very few sales. You're going to see when you look at the number of sales that annually, you know, maybe the trend line is at about 60.  Five properties a month. ... Small changes in the data are going to give you large or small changes in sales are going to be large changes in the data. But we will note that the average price did jump up a little bit in 2024 could be because of the market, the mix. Maybe we had a nice big single family home up in Louis Ranch cell that can throw it up a couple hundred thousand dollars with such small data. What you'll see in the number of properties sold is we're down to about that 60 number. COVID was much higher. We were above 100. What I would say about copper is if you have interest in copper, the good properties, they move pretty quick. There's just not that many properties. But also the demand is very limited. People who want to buy in copper know they want to buy in copper. It's going to be in copper. They love copper. And so the good properties are going to move relatively quick. But just know that the demand is very narrow. Anything to add on that one? No. OK. Moving on. All right. 

Dillon is one bright spot for 23 in that the prices actually increased. It's one of the few areas. And Amy did a really good deep dive into some of the condos in Dillon, looking at those price trends over the last few years. And so that's in her newsletter.  Take a look. But really, interest rates have had a pretty hard hit on some of our lower price properties. But because Dillon has remained affordable, we're still seeing them move.  Even though our number of sales has dropped similar to the other areas, we're seeing some price competitiveness. It's also one of our more affordable areas and there are different pockets in Dillon.  we have properties on the lake that bring up this average price because there's a premium there. And then we have Dillon Valley East and West, where there's a mix of condos and single families that are a little bit more affordable relative to other Summit County areas. This will also pull in all of Summit Cove, which is another neighborhood.  Dillon is a very varied market where we have Dillon Valley East and West, the entry level condos in that area. We've got the town of Dillon with the lakefront properties and then we have Summit Cove, which is a neighborhood that's more filled with single family homes.  Maybe it's just like the broadness that this market covers, which you can see the resilience of the whole market in terms of the average price. OK, we'll move on. 

Frisco. Yes, we live in Frisco. We love Frisco. And so does everybody else.  The average price is about $1.5 million. And like we mentioned earlier, it's one of our smaller markets, so it's pretty constrained geographically by I-70 and the lake and the mountains.  There's not a lot of room to build out. There's a little bit of infill density with some new construction as noted here, but even those are seeing more than $1,200 per square foot for the prices. We did see a little drop in 2023, but not as much as some of the other areas. And then we saw a pretty big increase in 2024. And I think this also is attributed, like we've been saying, to the types of properties selling. We're still seeing our single-family homes selling pretty quickly. And our number of properties did drop, but I think some of that is also just the number of properties available. We're just seeing people hold on to their properties a little bit more in Frisco. Yeah. Great job. 

Keystone. Okay, Keystone is a large market. It's the second largest market behind Breckenridge, I would say, in that, and mostly condos.  Keystone is a resort area. We've seen another price increase.  We're jumping up to about close to $1.3 million. Now that's a big jump from 2023 to 2024, probably one of the largest jumps we can see in the marketplace. A lot of that, in my opinion, has to do with some of the property types that have sold.  While all the properties are going up in price, we saw some new construction releases that happened. We saw some beautiful large single-family homes that were sold. And what's going to happen is probably next year, Kindred is going to close. Kindred is a large project at the base of the gondola in River Run. And we're gonna see the data jump in a very skewed way because those are very, very high-end properties. It's going to be pulling that average price up. I'm just already predicting this.  When we're here in front of you next year, be prepared for a big jump on the chart and we're going to be able to tell you why. We've had the Alcove units closed. Those were luxury units.  I'm going to say in large part, it was kind of the mix of what we had selling that brought that up. You'll also see number of properties sold from 23 to 24. We've got a little bit more of a boost than we've seen in other markets. I think that that's also just due to how large the marketplace is. Keystone, strong, strong market and watch as it continues to increase with Kindred. We have Brightwood condos coming on. That's a project of, I want to say, 62. And new seasons at Keystone that I represent, we have 12 with another 12 coming in the future.  that's where you're going to have the most new, or we're going to have a lot of new construction offerings. 

Silverthorne. Candice, why don't you talk about Silverthorne? Silverthorne has seen prices increasing. There's been a lot of development in Silverthorne over the last couple of years. It's had very developer friendly regulations. And so we've seen a lot of new condos being built along the river. And then we saw several of them close in 2023 and some in 2024. We're seeing prices relatively stable since 22. There's that dip in 23 and a little bit of a recovery in 24. We saw Summit Sky Ranch in 22 and 23, which are single family homes a little bit further north. But we are also seeing Wilderness, which is a big part of the Silverthorne area, see some prices drop or stay stable. And a lot of that's due to interest rates and short term rental regulations. Because people couldn't get a short-term rental license, we've seen some days on market a little bit higher in certain pockets, whereas some of our new builds, we see higher days on market, but it's just because they've been on during the new build timeframe. And we saw a small drop from last year and a bigger drop from the previous couple of years when more developments were coming online.  I think in Silverthorne, it's a little bit of a combination of those economics just the release of new units. Yeah, and like Dillon, Silverthorne has the town of Silverthorne, a lot of single-family home neighborhoods up and around Silverthorne, like Tarmigan, which is a housing area. And it also has Wildernest. And Wildernest is an entire different section.  Again, we're going to have a lot of variety within this sub-market.  If we need to dial in, if we're really looking into a property type, Well, we can look at this from more of a macro perspective, but we're going to really dive into that exact property type because of the variety that we see in Silverthorne. 

But pretty much a similar story across the board. Less sales, right? We thought that the less sales and more inventory would lead to reduced prices, and it has not. We saw large jumps in many markets, again, probably because of the mix of what has been selling with the luxury properties pulling that up. We'll do this in a different video. This one is the economics of renting a unit, but for the most part, we're going to do that in a different conversation. Here we are. 

We have our hands on our hips. Really sassy. Telling you about market trends.  Anyway, please reach out to me or Candice. Here's our contact information. We're happy to help. Dive deeper into any of these stats or explain any of the mountain trends to you. Do you have anything else to add, Candice? No, thanks for joining. And I think we'll make this document available on our website if anybody wants to dive into the data. Yep. Have a good day. Bye. Thanks. 

Thanks for joining us today on Mountain Real Estate. I'm Candice De. If the mountains are calling you, reach out to me. See you next time.