George Real Estate Group Radio Broadcast

Real Estate Revolution: How Fed Rate Cuts Impact Your Home Buying Journey

• George Real Estate Group

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The mortgage landscape is shifting as the Federal Reserve prepares for what many experts anticipate will be the first of several interest rate cuts. While the Fed doesn't directly control mortgage rates, these decisions send ripples through our local housing market that smart buyers and sellers can leverage to their advantage.

Henderson County's real estate market remains remarkably stable despite earlier higher interest rates, with a consistent 125 single-family homes selling monthly at an average price of $537,000. Recent weeks have seen mortgage rates drop to their lowest levels in over a year, offering a glimpse of what could become a trend if the Fed begins a cycle of rate reductions. For homebuyers, the numbers tell a compelling story – even a modest half-point decrease on a $400,000 mortgage translates to monthly savings exceeding $100, potentially making the difference between affordable and out-of-reach for many families.

Behind these market dynamics lies an even more fascinating story – North Carolina's extraordinary population growth. Having surpassed 11 million residents in 2024, our state added a remarkable 165,000 people in just the past year, ranking fourth nationally behind only Texas, Florida, and California. What makes this growth unique is that 95% comes from migration rather than natural increase. Henderson County perfectly illustrates this trend, growing to 120,000 residents despite experiencing more deaths than births. Our area's appeal to both retirees and younger professionals creates a diverse demographic tapestry that continues to fuel housing demand.

People choose North Carolina and specifically Henderson County for compelling reasons – our four mild seasons, stunning natural beauty from mountains to accessible beaches, outdoor recreational opportunities, and a cost of living approximately 5% below the national average. This combination of affordability and quality of life continues to attract newcomers from states like Florida, New York, California, and beyond, ensuring our real estate market remains dynamic even as it evolves with economic conditions.

Whether you're considering buying, selling, or investing in our unique market, understanding these broader economic and demographic trends can help you make strategic decisions. Connect with us to discuss how these factors might influence your specific real estate goals in Western North Carolina's ever-changing landscape.

Speaker 1:

Hello friends, thank you so much for being here. This is the George Real Estate Group podcast, which is a production of our live weekly radio shows hosted on multiple radio stations here in Hendersonville, north Carolina. The George Real Estate Group serves Western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina and it is a privilege to share positive news about our local real estate market and community. Thanks so much for subscribing and, of course, if you have any real estate questions or if we can help you in any way, be sure to reach out. Visit us at georgerealestategroupradiocom for more information. Good morning and welcome to the George Real Estate Group live radio broadcast here in the queue every Monday morning, sharing with you positive news about your local real estate market and community, and we're so grateful to be here with you this Monday morning. Can you believe we're halfway through the month of September? And boy is time flying when you're having fun and it's amazing how quick the summer's gone by and it falls around the corner and just football season and all the great things about this time of year, the mild and beautiful temperatures. I've certainly been enjoying spending time outside and I hope you have as well, if you're tuning in. For the first time ever, the George Real Estate Group's located Flat Rock, right next to the Flat Rock Bakery. Hubba Hubba BBQ, campfire Grill, hubba Lou, our friends at the Wrinkled Egg all of our great local and independent businesses. The George Real Estate Group is local and independent as well. We've had the privilege of serving almost 1,600 families throughout the years with their real estate needs, whether buying or selling or investing in real estate. We also have incredible agents. We're growing. We're hiring more agents. If you thought about a career in real estate the market we'll jump in and talk about what's going on in the market. Before we do that, you can follow us online. You can follow us at realestatebygregcom. You can follow us on social media Facebook and Instagram. We also podcast all of our radio shows. You can find it on your favorite podcast platform, but glad to connect with you any way we can. You can stop in our office and say hello. You can give us a call 828-393-0134, 828-393-0134.

Speaker 1:

Just a quick snapshot Literally over the last seven days in Henderson County there's been 31 new listings, there's been 66 price drops, there's been 55 homes go under contract and 29 homes closed. Now, this time of the month I mean typically there's less closings than towards the end of the month. It just seems to work out that way. But the market is absolutely still moving, it's healthy and we're averaging about 125, 126 single family homes a month selling over the last 12 months. The 12-month average price in Henderson County is at $537,000 and change.

Speaker 1:

But if we look at the month of August, what happened this August versus the previous August, and then if we give a snapshot of year to date through the end of August, versus the same time period last year, we can certainly learn a lot. There was a 3.5% increase in new listings in the month of August, but for the year, year to date, we're at an 11% increase. So that means buyers have more choices and also the increase in new listings means there's more opportunities for buyers. It also means days on market is increasing. The days on the market until a sale is up some 37%. Now we're at 62 days through the end of August and it's just now from actually going on the market listing to going to closing is up some 17%. That's 114 days from going on the market to actually closing. Another interesting observation is the percentage of the original list price received compared to what it listed, compared to what it sold In the month of August that number was down 2 percent to 94 percent%. Sellers are coming off of their price on average 94%, and then in the year to date it was at 95%. So I mean the market's softening because of increased inventory. But this is another interesting observation the month of August was slower. This August versus the previous August it was actually down 12% If we just look at August 2024 versus August 2025. But still, if we look at year to date, year to date through the end of August, we were still up 3% in the number of homes sold. So again, the sky is not falling, the market's still moving.

Speaker 1:

Now the big news has certainly been with the interest rates and where the interest rates are going. It has been, you know, this week all the eyes are on the Federal Reserve and the Fed is meeting and the overwhelming expectation is that they're going to cut the federal funds rate. And so what a lot of buyers and sellers are asking is does that mean mortgage rates are about to drop too? And the answer is not as simple as a lot of the headlines are suggesting. The Fed doesn't directly set the mortgage rates. It's a big misconception, but certainly the decisions it makes, actions it makes and, more importantly, the this is so interesting the expectation of its actions can actually influence where the mortgage rates head next. And if you, this is just a quick snapshot or a lesson in the federal mortgage rate. The federal funds rate is actually what's called the. It's a short term interest rate. Banks charge each other to borrow money overnight and it's not the same as a 30-year fixed mortgage rate. However, when the feds adjust the rate, it sends signals through the economy, impacting everything from credit cards, auto loans, business borrowing and, yes, it trickles down to, eventually, mortgages.

Speaker 1:

So this week the CME FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing in, baking in, they're anticipating and they've already priced in almost 100% chance of a September cut and most experts expect it will be a modest quarter point 25 basis points with a slim chance of a half point cut. And so why? The market saw this coming and this is where it gets interesting. Mortgage rates often move ahead of the Fed. That's because mortgage rates are tied closely to the bond market and specifically the yield on the 10-year treasury, and investors have been reading the tea leaves since the weak jobs report in August and earlier again this month, and each time the data pointed to a cooling economy and markets started baking in the likelihood of a Fed cut and mortgage rates tickled down and ticked down in advance. And mortgage rates tickled down and ticked down in advance. So if the Fed cuts rates by the widely expected 25 basis points, that's likely already priced in Mortgage rates, which, by the way, they've been dropping, and last week we saw a number of our buyers lock in at the lowest rates we've seen in over a year. So mortgage rates may not budge much, but if the Fed surprises us with a larger cut, that could trigger a more noticeable dip in mortgage rates.

Speaker 1:

So what could happen next? Even if the September cut is modest, economists say that the real story is whether the Fed starts a cycle of cuts. If the economy continues to show signs of slowing and many think it will the Fed could trim rates again before the end of the year. Sam Williamson, the senior economist at First American, said this for mortgage rates investor confidence in a forthcoming rate cut cycle could help push borrowing costs lower in the back half of 2025, offering some relief to housing affordability and potentially helping to boost buyer demand and overall market activity. So, in other words, the bigger picture isn't just this week's Fed meeting, it's whether we're at the start of a trend. So here in Henderson County we've been talking about affordability all year long.

Speaker 1:

With the average single family home price around that 540 price range, even small shifts in mortgage rates can make a big difference in monthly payments. Small shifts in mortgage rates can make a big difference in monthly payments. For example, on a $400,000 mortgage, just a half point in interest rates can move your monthly payment by over $100. And so families on the fence about buying. That's the difference between stretching too thin and doable. And so, while no one should expect rates to plummet overnight, a series of Fed cuts could slowly ease borrowing costs into late 2025 and early 2026 and can give buyers more breathing room and potentially bring more activity into the housing market. Again, this will impact our local market. Here Again, to remember and you can see this on our most recent blog posts, you can go to georgialstategroupradiocom the Fed does not set the mortgage rates, but its moves in the anticipation of them shape the direction of rates, and a small cut this week could already be baked in. The bigger cut could have a more immediate impact. So, again, the thing to watch in the real story is whether we're at the beginning of a cycle of cuts that could help affordability in the months ahead.

Speaker 1:

But if you're a buyer waiting on the sidelines, it is absolutely the time to talk strategy with your real estate agent. And if you're a seller, even the modest improvement in rates could bring more buyers back into the market. So we'd love to have the conversation. If you're thinking of buying, or maybe you're thinking of buying and then selling, maybe you're looking at selling and then buying, whatever your situation is, we'd love to have the conversation. You know, the difference is this is so interesting on a $400,000 mortgage just to give you some more context at 6.5% of payments, about $2,500. If the rates dip just a quarter to 6.25, that payment drops by $65. At 6%, the savings are $130. And if that interest rate was to go to 5.75, you're saving nearly $200 a month. I mean this can make the difference for a buyer in our market and so it does matter.

Speaker 1:

These interest rates matter and the thing to put into context is, even with the interest rates where they were and earlier this year they were as high as 7%, you got to remember the last 24 months of Henderson County have been stable. We've been averaging about 125 homes a month selling even with and that doesn't include condos or townhomes or land or commercial again, which we work in all of those different categories but we use single family homes as a litmus or as a barometer. We're still averaging 125 homes a month selling in Henderson County. Over a third of our homes sold in Henderson County, by the way, are purchased with cash but even so, even with the 7% interest environment, we've been holding steady here in Henderson County.

Speaker 1:

Something I'm going to dive into in the second half of the show is rates of people and moving and moving trends into our area, moving North Carolina. Migration is significant and I'm going to share with you some of the research I've done on North Carolina and then some of the research I've done for Henderson Carolina and then some of the research I've done for Henderson County and just some of the trends that is happening and giving you some local context, giving you some statewide context. But the boom, the North Carolina boom, population boom, is a story of migration. People are coming here for so many different reasons. The high quality of life, the economic opportunities, the affordable living and the numbers tell a story and we'll dive into that and I'll share with you that in our second half of the show You're listening to the Georgia Real Estate Group live radio broadcast here in the queue every Monday morning.

Speaker 1:

Of course, find us online at realestatebygregcom. You can also call us directly at 828-393-0134. You can follow us on social media. We podcast all of our radio shows and always welcome it's amazing the people that call into the office and give us feedback on the radio show and then if you have topics or conversations or guests you might suggest, we're always welcome to that too. But again, we love sharing the good news about the local real estate market, the good news about our community. We live in an incredible community and I tell people all the time I am biased I think we live in one of the most amazing places in the world and grateful to call Henderson County home, grateful to serve the community through real estate and just grateful to be here with you every Monday morning right after the nine o'clock news. So stay tuned in. We have a short break and we'll be right back. Good morning and welcome back to the Georgia Real Estate Group live radio broadcast here in the queue every Monday morning and so grateful to be with you here. We were just reminiscing or talking about this weather, but I don't know about you, but I love having my windows open and letting the cool morning air come in and then cools down the house and then usually by the time it warms up in the middle of the day the house is still cool and then ready for it again at nighttime. But I'm so grateful. I mean certainly the quality of life and the temperatures and the climate here is one of the many reasons people move here and I will dive into that conversation too. I shared with you before the break. I was going to dive into the population boom for North Carolina and also specifically Henderson County and some of the research I did. But before we do that, again, if you're tuning in, for the first time ever, the George Real Estate Group is located in Flat Rock. We serve all of Western North Carolina and the upstate, spartanburg and Greenville counties and we're growing. If you thought about a career in real estate, we'd love to have the conversation. You can call us directly at 828-393-0134, 828-393-0134. Find us online at realestatebygregcom. Also, be sure to follow us on social media. You can stop by our office. You can call us. We'd love to connect with you. We podcast all of our radio shows. And again, whether you're buying, selling, investing in real estate. Maybe you are working through an estate, maybe you're working through your real estate investments or portfolio, whatever it might be. Maybe you want to talk tax strategy. Maybe you want to talk about investment strategy. If we can help, we have incredible experience and systems and processes and proven and predictable processes with our team and we'd love to connect. Call us directly at 828-393-0134.

Speaker 1:

You know, north Carolina is continuing to experience a significant population boom in recent years and it's driven largely by people moving into the state and certainly Henderson County and the western part. Here we are mirroring what's happening on a statewide level here locally, and so why are so many people choosing North Carolina? And again, what's happening? So did you know North Carolina's population officially surpassed 11 million in 2024? And the state actually added 165,000 people from July 2023 to July 2024 alone. It was the fourth largest gain of any state, behind that state, behind Texas, florida and California. But since the 2020 census, north Carolina has added about 650,000 residents and that's about 140,000 per year and that's a much faster pace than during the 2010s, when the growth was at about 90,000 per year. So this is interesting. It's migration that's driving the growth and 95% of North Carolina's population growth since 2020 has come from net migration, meaning far more people move in than move out, and this is funny. We see this.

Speaker 1:

I could have told you that just based on our real estate alone. But it's so interesting in the real estate industry, where real estate agents are like you know, we're able to refer people. I mean we've helped people across the entire United States. We've helped people that are selling their house in California. We've had clients buying houses in California. We've helped clients buying and selling in Florida. I mean we're able to connect through our network of agents all across the United States and help our clients connect.

Speaker 1:

But this is people if we could have predicted, I could have told you this because we send we have more people sending us referrals about people moving to North Carolina than we ever have, about people that we're working with that are leaving. You know, from April 2020 to July 2024, our state of North Carolina saw an estimated net gain of 573,000 people from migration and so in just the most recent year, about 82,000 people moved to North Carolina from other states and that's an additional 70 net came from abroad. This is also interesting Natural increase. This is births minus deaths now play a very small role, only about actually less than 5% of growth. But again, north Carolina's population increase is overwhelmingly driven by newcomers arriving and again, we have so many people moving in than moving out. Now people are saying people are curious, where are the newcomers coming from? People are moving to North Carolina from across the country and, for example, in 2021, nearly 366,000 individuals moved into North Carolina, with about 89% of them coming from US states. The top feeder states you could probably guess it were Florida, new York, south Carolina and California. Many others came from, like Georgia and New Jersey and Texas. But the other fascinating thing is international migration is also rebounding, post-pandemic, and that's certainly part of it as well. A lot of top countries of origin historically include Mexico, india and others.

Speaker 1:

Now Henderson County it's a microcosm of the state's migration-driven growth and our population here in Henderson County has risen largely because of the people moving in. Also, as of 2024, henderson County's population it's estimated to be about 120,000 people, up from 116,000 in 2020. So we've had growth. But the interesting thing is Henderson County because of our demographics this is just. You hear this. We have a lot of retirees, we have an older population. We actually have if you didn't know this. We actually have more deaths than births each year due to our older demographic and, and in fact, between 2022 and 2023, alone, in Henderson County, we had 520 more deaths than births. That's what's called a natural decrease, and yet the county still grew in population because of the inbound migration outweighing the losses. So virtually all of Henderson County's population comes from net migration, and so we've actually we're expected. This is so interesting. State projections show that for the decade of 2020 through 2023, henderson County is expected to gain about 20,000 residents from migration, while roughly seeing 6,000 more deaths and births. So, again, it's just the migration versus natural growth, and so, in otherwise, new arrivals are offsetting the natural population decline.

Speaker 1:

Now, henderson County, as we know and as we've experienced, and as you know, is a magnet for retirees and others relocating from out of the state, and it's been rapid since the 1960s as a result of the influx from other states, and so this is interesting. The median age in Henderson County is 47 and a half years, versus 39 years for North Carolina as a whole. Also, one in four residents is 65 or older. So, again, of course, asheville gets all the news. I mean, we are certainly part of the larger Asheville metropolitan area.

Speaker 1:

But you know people come here for the quality of life. But you know it is the. This is. You know why are people coming here?

Speaker 1:

I just mentioned one of the reasons quality of life. The mild, distinct, four distinct climates and seasons. The mild winters, I mean we have our incredible springs and falls and then the summers are warm, but they're not as extreme as some of the deep south states. Also, the quality of life, of course North Carolina can claim from the mountains to the beach. It depends. I'm a fan of the mountains but certainly love the beach when I get a chance to go. But you can all in one state. You have the mountains and the beach. But the outdoor activities, the recreation, natural beauty, again, the charm of our cities and towns I mean it's this. It draws so many people for the quality and better lifestyle and so there's so much that our area has to offer. Also this is interesting the lower cost of living. North Carolina offers an affordable cost of living, about 5% below the national average as of 2025. So housing costs tend to be lower than in many Northeastern or West Coast states. So again, that can be a driving factor. It's all relative, right. People coming from California, people coming from New England. They come down here and they see cheaper housing, cheaper taxes and lower overall expenses, which makes North Carolina very attractive.

Speaker 1:

Another thing is our job opportunities and growth. North Carolina's economy continues to grow and offers a thriving job market. Metro areas like Charlotte, raleigh and even Asheville are often ranked among the best places to live due to the balance of good jobs and affordable living and the quality of life. North Carolina is also ranked and frequently rated a top state for business, which translates into new companies and employment opportunities. So many companies choose North Carolina for their employees and so there's so many factors that go into migration. But North Carolina, we have this broad range of people coming here young professionals, families and retirees and a lot of retirees often choose North Carolina as a gentler alternative to Florida because of the mild climate, without the extreme heat, and then our mountains have the cooler summers. And at the same time, our younger professionals, our younger workers and families are coming for the growth in the job markets and also the incredible education that our state has for our children and families, but also the tech, the health care, the finance and a lot of the reputable universities.

Speaker 1:

There's so many reasons, but North Carolina, our population boom, is the story of migration. People are coming here for economic opportunities, affordable living and high quality of life, and the numbers tell the story. Nearly all of North Carolina's recent growth is from newcomers moving in and again it's the influx of new residents that keeps our population growing despite, specifically, henderson County, our aging local community. So again, we anticipate North Carolina and specifically Henderson County to continue growth in the years ahead and it is a very I've shared this many times. I am so biased to where we live. It is just North Carolina and specifically Henderson County are magnets for people.

Speaker 1:

People choose to to move here. We've heard, especially during COVID, people chose to move their dreams forward. And then, not to mention the people that live here, the incredible people that live here, the community, the generosity, the nonprofit communities that we've highlighted so many times, and to go ahead and mention, you saw, the resilience of our community we're coming up on just a couple weeks away from the one-year anniversary of Helene and to see what our communities come through and have navigated and the resilience that our community has experienced and shown. And we know there's so many people in our community that are still recovering, that are still navigating through what does life look like? And rebuilding and there's so many needs that are still out there and there's so many incredible nonprofits doing the work and doing their boots on the ground and so, again, all that is still in play and we've seen our resilience. We've seen, we saw so much where neighbors helping neighbors and the community stepping up. That is, again, for all the other reasons I shared, why people move here. For those of us that experienced Helene, and we saw how people stepped up and showed up and neighbors showing up and just stepping up in an incredible, incredible experience that I know so many of us are still remembering and navigating and processing. Again it's coming up on a year anniversary Again. This is again one of the main the people are the reason why this community is what it is. We're so grateful to be here every Monday morning right after the nine o'clock hour.

Speaker 1:

I know I dove into the weeds a little bit. The news about the mortgage rates and the feds cutting the rates. Also the migration, which I think is so fascinating, but it's the stories that we hear every single week where people are moving here. They're moving their dreams forward. They want their quality of life. We had some people recently walk through our doors that were they're about a year out, but they're visiting here from another country and they said this is where we want to call home.

Speaker 1:

And so we've had the privilege and opportunity to serve so many people through their real estate needs, whether buying or selling, or investing in real estate. We've had so much opportunity to serve the community. We've had an incredible experience helping our agents launching their careers and thriving in their real estate industry. That's something we love doing. So if you thought about a career in real estate, maybe you're currently with your license and looking for something different. We'd love to have the conversation With any of this. There's no pressure, there's no cost, there's no obligation. You can give us a call at 828-393-0134. We're here every Monday morning. Again, have a wonderful day. Have a wonderful weekend. Again, for all your real estate needs, give us a call. Find us online at realestatebygregcom. Have a great day and we'll see you next Monday.

Speaker 1:

Maybe the house feels a little too big these days, the stairs a little steeper, the pace of life a little too fast, but what if your next move wasn't about letting go. It was about making space For peace, for freedom, for what matters most? At the George Real Estate Group, we understand that real estate isn't just about the house. It's about transitions, timing and trust. We've helped thousands of families in Western North Carolina make smart, thoughtful moves closer to nature, closer to family, closer to home. So when you're ready to right, size, simplify or start fresh, we'll be here. The George Real Estate Group Local, trusted, proven. Call us today 828-393-0134. Find us online at realestatebygregcom, because your next chapter deserves to feel just right.

Speaker 2:

The George Real Estate Group has the experience of selling over 1,200 properties and serving over 1,200 families with their real estate needs in Henderson County and throughout western North Carolina. The George Real Estate Group is located in Flat Rock, north Carolina, near Hendersonville in Henderson County. You can find them online at realestatebygregcom. The George Real Estate Group can be reached at 828-393-0134 or stop by their office at 2720 Greenville Highway, flat Rock, north Carolina. Tune in live each week on Monday mornings at 9 0 5 on WTZQ FM 95.3 and 1600 AM, or stream online at WTZQcom.