George Real Estate Group Radio Broadcast

The Housing Market Is Not Crashing, It’s Normalizing And Here’s Why

• George Real Estate Group

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Headlines keep shouting about a housing crash, but our local stats and the national data tell a different story. We open with a clear market snapshot for Western North Carolina—fresh listings, steady pendings, a five‑month supply—and explain why activity remains strong through the holidays. From there, we break down expert forecasts that point to moderate, sustainable home price growth through 2029, and we unpack the real reason: inventory is still too low for demand. No hype, just context you can use to plan your next smart move.

We also look beyond numbers to the people behind them. You’ll hear how environmental refugees from Katrina, Helene, California wildfires, and Hawaii’s lava flows found higher ground and deeper community in our mountains. These are stories of loss and renewal, neighbors becoming first responders, church kitchens turning into community hubs, and towns rebuilding smarter with resilient design, better materials, and greener choices. Western North Carolina’s draw isn’t only the views; it’s the stability, the seasons, and the sense of belonging.

If you’re weighing buy-versus-sell timing, investment strategy, or how to reposition property with 1031 exchanges and smart tax planning, we walk through practical paths that reduce stress and align with your goals. Our team partners with attorneys, CPAs, and planners to help you protect equity, optimize taxes, and make decisions that fit your life. Subscribe for grounded market insight, human stories that inspire, and clear guidance that puts you in control. Have a question we didn’t cover? Send us a note or call 828-393-0134—and if this resonated, share it with a friend and leave a review to help others find the show.

SPEAKER_01:

Hello, friends. Thank you so much for being here. This is the George Real Estate Group podcast, which is a production of our live weekly radio shows hosted on multiple radio stations here in Hendersonville, North Carolina. The George Real Estate Group serves Western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina, and it is a privilege to share positive news about our local real estate market and community. Thanks so much for subscribing. And of course, if you have any real estate questions or if we can help you in any way, be sure to reach out. Visit us at George Real Estate Group Radio.com for more information. Good morning, and welcome to the George Real Estate Group Live Radio broadcast here in WHKP every Thursday morning. Bring you positive news about your local real estate marketing community. So grateful to be here. And on this Thursday, can you believe time's flying? The big three are coming up. Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas are around the corner. And time's flying. This is, and guess what? Real estate is absolutely still happening this time of year. You might think that the things are slowing down. Is it as busy as the summer? No, but it's it's plenty busy. I'll tell you that. We're we're so grateful we've helped so many people. We're actually on track to help even more people this year than we did last year. And so if you're thinking of buying, selling, or investing in real estate or career in real estate, we'd love to have the conversation. Uh there's no pressure, there's no cost, there's no obligation. There's just we'd love to have the conversation. We're so enthusiastic about helping our clients. We love serving the community. Um, we love serving, we love helping and advocating ultimately for our clients. And we have a great team, great staff. And so uh you can find us. We're on on Rainbow Row in Flat Rock if you've ever uh ventured towards Flat Rock. We serve all of Western North Carolina and the upstate. We have agents that live in South Carolina that can help our our South Carolina agents and our South Carolina clients. And so again, grateful to serve all of Western North Carolina and the upstate. Find us online at realestatebygreg.com. Also stop by our office there in Flat Rock. You can stop in and say hello. Uh follow us on social media. We on we're on Facebook and Instagram and and we also have a blog. We also podcast all of our radio shows. You can find that on your on your favorite podcast platform. And we'd love to to connect with you. We have open houses, we have new listings, we have great inventory, um, and again, great agents, and we'd love love to connect with you. Um find us online. Again, here's a quick snapshot. Just in the last seven days in Henderson County, 39 new listings, 74 price drops. There's been 29 homes go under contract and 45 homes closed. I mean, the market's very stable. It's moving. Uh, in the last 12 months, there's been almost 1,600 homes sold, uh, 1,592 um single-family homes sold. I mean, that doesn't even include condos or townhomes or land. I mean, we've had more homes sell in the last 12 months versus the previous 12 months, and that's even with Helene in there. Uh, our average single-family home prices at 534 and change, almost 535. We have low inventory, only 681 active single-family homes in the market. And with 132, we're averaging 132 um single-family homes a month selling. I mean, we have a five-month supply. A six-month supply is considered balanced. The economists say typically six months is a balanced market, not a buyer's or seller's market. We're we're we're technically in a seller's market because we're at a five-month supply, but you know, the and and we're still moving. Interest rates are what interest rates are. The the economy is the economy. Life happens, therefore, real estate happens, and we've seen a lot of a lot of movement still. Like I said, more homes sold in the last 12 months than the previous 12 months. And the market is it is the market. So, over so the question that we keep hearing all the time is the housing market going to crash? I mean, like, is the sky, you know, the sky is falling. The, you know, and and the the question is what are the the what's happening? I mean, and we have our local data, but the national news, if you've seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it's easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. And here's the thing the data doesn't point to crash, it does point to slow continued growth. And of course, it's area by area, state by state, local area, neighborhoods by neighborhoods. You know, some markets will see prices rise more than others, and some may even see a small short-term decline. But the big picture is home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall over the next five years. And we can actually see, you know, we can we can see what's happening here locally, but again, here's a snapshot of what's happening nationally. In the home price expectation survey from Fannie Mae, each quarter over a hundred leading housing experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, released, experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029. Across the board, we're seeing you know projections over the next you know five quarters, or actually through the next five years, they're saying moderate growth, price growth, uh from the mid to low twos to in 2028 and 2029, they're thinking three and a half percent appreciation. So we're anticipating appreciation to continue year over year, and even the most pessimistic forecasters say we'll see prices rise by almost five percent over the next few years. Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029. The optimists say we'll beat that and then see a roughly 26% increase. And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% over the next five years. So what sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash or even a decline over the next over the next five years. Let's focus here's the thing. This is compared to a normal market. Projections call for two to three and a half percent price increases in each of the next five years. For context, the average rate of appreciation for the last 25 years was actually closer to four to five percent annually. So while that's slightly below the historical average, it's much more sustainable and typical than where the market was in 2021, 2020, 2022. You know, back then the prices rose too much and too fast, excuse me, too fast based on record low supply and record high demand. And some places even saw prices climb by 15 to 20 percent. So while that might feel like prices are stalling compared to those pandemic era surges, what's really happening is the market's finally finding balance again. And then it's always about supply and demand. The reason prices are holding is still because of the low inventory. Here's the thing a lot of chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up must come down. But historically, that's not true. Home prices almost always rise. Of course, we had those years of 2010, 2011, 2012 where the prices went down. But the main reason we're not going to repeat the 2020 2008 cycle is is the supply and demand. When we saw those years of double-digit price drops, double-digit percentages of price drops, we had a one and two and three year supply of homes. We have a five-month supply of homes right now. So supply and demand explains why we're not going to see what we saw in 2008. And even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the last few years, there still aren't enough homes for everyone who wants to buy. And so that the ongoing shortage is going to keep upward pressure on prices nationally, and so that's why experts across the board confidently agree, even though some are more bullish than others, and some are but it's we're not headed for a price collapse, but for a steady long-term appreciation. And so, and it's just in case, and just in case it's the economy that got you worried over this, over the past 50 years, there's been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. But one thing that's been consistently true throughout time is the housing market always recovers, and we're coming through that right now and going into recovery. So I've said this many times: your personal situation, your personal home, the market's the market, the interest rates are the interest rates, the the economy's the economy, and we know real estate happens around life. And regardless, I mean, if you're you know, trying to time the market is impossible. And and and we know, and we see we've seen this, but you know, we do it does appear steady price growth over the next five years. And so you're it's not a question if home prices will rise over the next five years, it's by how much. So please, if you want to have the conversation, let's connect. You can know what's happening in your specific neighborhood, your specif, and in regards to your specific home, and how these again, the numbers tell a story, but your unique situation, your unique story, we'd love to have the conversation. There's no pressure, there's no cost, there's no obligation. Give us a call at 828-393-0134. And if you want to see some of the graphs that I'm referring to and some of the the forecasts, you can go to our website, george real estate group radio.com. You can see our blog. Uh, you can see our blog about you know whether it's blogs about selling or blogs about the economy and the and the forecasting and affordability. Our blog is very helpful, George Realestate Groupradio.com. You can see information there that could be helpful. You know, I had I was very grateful. Uh I get every once in a while get an opportunity to travel, and I come across people that have had to move, and and because of I and I had forgotten about this this concept of of refugee, but you know, life sometimes moves us, not because we want to, but because we have to. It could be a storm, a fire, a flood. The earth has a way of reminding us who's really in charge. But that what's amazing is how people rise right along with it, and these aren't just stories of loss, they're stories of renewal, of faith, of courage, of community, and we've seen this in our own backyard. But today wanted to talk about finding higher ground, not just in elevation, but in spirit. You may have heard of the term environmental refugee, and it sounds heavy, and it is. In a place like our mountains of western North Carolina. You know, they didn't plan to move here, but they'll tell you now they can't imagine imagine living anywhere else. Back in 2005, when Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast, over a million people were displaced, and some families came right here to the Carolinas, to Hendersonville, to Asheville, to the Blue Ridge Mountains, and they came searching for safety, for stillness, for dry ground. And and what they found was was community. They started small businesses, they joined churches, they sent the kids, they sent their kids to our schools, and they'll tell you we lost everything, but somehow we found what mattered most. And and sometimes the storm sends you exactly where you were meant to grow. Fast forward to just last year, our own hurricane Helene, and she didn't hit the coast hard. She came for the mountains, our flash floods, landslides, creeks turned into rivers overnight. But you know what? The story of Helene, it wasn't about destruction, you know, it was about connection. Before the first responders arrived, neighbors were out cutting trees, towing cars, finding and checking on their neighbors, opening a way through, cooking hot meals, church kitchens became community hubs, and people opened their their homes to strangers. Everyone here experienced that. Helene reminded us reminded us that Western North Carolina isn't just beautiful, it's resilient. So even when the valleys flood, the people rise. Out west, I came across I've come across people with the Pacific Palisades in California. One of the most scenic and affluent neighborhoods in Los Angeles was hit by wildfires. Multi-million dollar homes gone in hours, smoke over the ocean, roads jammed with evacuees, teachers, firefighters, and movie stars all driving side by side. But what came next was powerful. Neighbors formed fire brigades, helped the el helping the elderly evacuate. Artists painted murals on burned walls that read, We will rise. And when they rebuilt, they when they rebuild, they they will rebuild smarter, greener materials, better fire lines, stronger community networks. Fires took their homes, but it couldn't take their hope. And sometimes it takes sometimes it takes losing what's temporary to rediscover what's eternal. If you've ever had a chance to go to Hawaii, the big island where volcanoes like Kilauea remind us that destruction and creation can can act can can be the same act. I actually recently spoke to someone that lost their home in the 2018 volcano, and she said it wasn't losing our home, it was losing she grew up there, and where they would surf along the shorelines were completely changed. And she said, you know, take our homes, don't change our surf. It was such an interesting perspective, but again, they've rebuilt in 2018. The lava flows burned neighborhoods, but they also created two excuse me, eight hundred and seventy-five new acres of land. And the locals there called it Pele's gift because even the fire that destroys can make way for new beginnings. People who lost everything came together, shared land, and built tighter communities. So it's a living example that Earth is always moving, and life always finds a new way to return. Change means growth. But here's the thing: it's not just the fires or lava, and across Louisiana, Florida, the Carolinas, rising waters are quietly reshaping where people live. Some people call it the great inland migration. And here's what's inspiring. They're not just running from something, they're moving towards something. Stable seasons, clean air, a sense of belonging. And a lot of people are finding that here in Western North Carolina, and they came for safety, but they stayed for the people. And so, you know what we we're so blessed to be here. It of course, we had Helene, but in general, fewer hurricanes, rare tornadoes, no desert fires, and so four honest and mild seasons, steady rain, and a deep sense of community. The Blue Ridge Mountains have always been a refuge, not just from the weather, but from hurry, fear, and noise. And now people are rediscovering that. Families who never plan to move here are falling in love with the rhythm of these hills. You know, the kindness of their neighbors, the place, the peace that comes from walking and waking up around surrounded by trees instead of traffic. And they're realizing that maybe it isn't just higher ground. I mean, some might say it's it's even holy ground. So every relocation story brings new growth. If the folks who fled the Gulf Coast are now running restaurants here, families from wildfire regions are helping design safer homes. Communities are learning to build smarter, live greener, and deep and connect deeper. So even in the face of disaster, we're seeing in innovation. We are seeing we see solar, we see sustainable housing, we see see projects and new ideas for resilience. And so it's not about escaping, it's about adapting. And so no matter where you look, Katrina, Helene, the Palisades or the Big Island, the story is never just about what was lost, it's about what was found and family, faith. I mean, we can grow together with those who find their way here. And again, changing where you live may be hard, but every hero story has the fall right before the rise. You never know. And again, our own community faced and walked through that. We every Friday morning we have our hometown heroes series, and we continue to share stories about Helene. Again, where churches became shelters, neighbors became heroes, strangers became friends, and then somehow, through all through all the chaos, community becomes and is our greatest renewable resource. When disaster strikes, people show up. This week's hero, Georgetown, the George Real Estate Group Hometown Hero is Cowboy Joe. And this cowboy definitely wears a white hat because he's one of the good cowboys. Cowboy Cowboy Joe is originally from Wyoming and was roaming through Chimney Rock several years ago and fell in love with Chimney Rock. And when he heard about the damages of Helene, he rode back into town and helped start put things back together. Tomorrow morning at 8 45, you're gonna hear from Cowboy Joe, this week's hometown hero. Again, our community truly became our greatest renewable resource. And again, we can grow together. And this is what again, family, faith, compassion, and when disaster strikes, people show up. Again, none of us would ever choose the storm, the fire, or the flood. And sometimes they choose us and they move us towards something greater, towards stillness, towards gratitude, towards community. So whenever, wherever you are, remember higher ground just isn't a place on a map, it's the mindset. You know, we get to choose what things mean. We get to choose how we respond how we respond to that. I mean, how how many times we'd say we didn't wish for it, but we're grateful for what it taught us. And so we choose to believe no matter what the world takes away, there's always something good waiting to be found. And so when the waters rise, the fire burns, or the ground shifts, we we love what remains, and love our our love never fails. And again, we see that, we've seen that, we've experienced that in our com in our community, and it's amazing, and it's amazing. We the stories you should you get a chance to speak to anybody, and I'm grateful. I I recently had the conversation with um uh environmental refugee from from uh the big island of Hawaii that lost what they lost in the in the volcano. I've you know we spoke we've spoken recently to people that moved here from Katrina. Um we I've spoken people that have experienced the Palisades fire. Again, environmental refugees. It's it's it's real. And so, and even in our own community, but again, it's it's powerful how our community has has stepped up, the resilience and where we're going, and we're focusing on the future and where we're headed. And the you know, as the weather cools, again, the the real estate market is not cooling here. We are continuing to help people every single day, and it's it's it's year-round. And I think there's this conception, though, that things are only selling in the spring or the summer, or no one's shopping during the winter, but that's not true. Year-round homes are selling here, and we've been helping so many people navigate through the buying and selling process, regardless of the holidays, regardless of again, the big three are coming up the you know, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and and Christmas, uh, you know, this and we're just as busy now as we've been all year, and we've helped more people uh navigate through. I mean, we have people that are thinking, do they do they buy before they sell? Do they sell before they buy? We're having conversations every day with people that are considering what to do with their investment property. Maybe you have land that you've been paying taxes on, it's family land. Maybe you want to keep it as family land, maybe you want to keep it, and we actually have buyers that are key are committed to keeping agricultural land, agricultural land. We can help you with that. You can we can help you with your estate planning. We can, it's not just the your personal home, which again, that's we we are so grateful. Whatever your situation is, but we work with your estate planners and your tax advisors and your accountants and your uh attorney, your legal advice. Again, we work in concert, we have an incredible crew and a great team to help you through whatever it might be. And again, maybe you're thinking about how do I is it possible to actually pay less taxes and make more money? Yes. That's that's that's that can actually be true. You might say, how is it possible? Well, with real estate and with with your investments, you can actually have depreciation. We can help you with a 1031 exchange. You can actually defer the paying any capital gains taxes on selling your investment property, move it into another property, and again, it is possible to pay less taxes and make more money. Again, a lot of options. We're helping clients, we're having advocating, we're facilitating, we're consulting, we're a fiduciary. Again, whether it's your personal home, maybe it's your investment properties, maybe it's uh real estate that you've inherited, whatever the situation is. We have an incredible group of agents and staff and and consultants from our again, working in concert with our attorneys and our tax advisors and CPAs and and and ultimately there to provide solutions so you can decide what's right for you. Again, I for what I said at the beginning, there's no pressure, there's no cost, there's no obligation. You can give us a call. We'd love to have the conversation. We're growing, we're hiring more agents. If you thought about a career in real estate, if we'd we'd love to have the conversation with a career in real estate, we're just so grateful. Our team is growing, we've helped more clients. The market's the market, and and we are so enthusiastic about helping our clients navigate through the buying and selling process. But more importantly, we love hearing our clients' stories and hearing, you know, are they, you know, and we we have the clients that have been here for multiple generations, and they have some powerful stories about their families here in Hendersonville. And then we've had the clients that are are the environmental refugees that have had to relocate uh you know from different natural disasters throughout the country. Again, we are working with all clients, all situations. And again, your your unique situation, your unique home. We'd love to have a confidential consultation. We can meet at our office, we can do a Zoom call, we can do a phone call, whatever you're most comfortable with. We have incredible agents, we have incredible staff, and we are so excited about having helping our clients and finishing the year strong. This year has been an incredible year, and it's amazing to look and to see there's actually been more homes sold in the last 12 months than the previous 12 months, and that's including during the time timeline of recovering from Helene. And it and that's it, and and we know so many people are still recovering from that. Tomorrow morning, our Hometown Hero series continues. Cowboy Joe, it's gonna be a great conversation tomorrow morning at 8 45. So tune in for that. Uh, we're here every Thursday morning at 10 o'clock. Actually, I've been doing this radio program since 2011, if you can believe it. Uh, it's some, I think you've done the math, maybe some between all the different radio programs, uh, some 1,600 or 1,700 live radio shows throughout the years. Uh, and just uh and just grateful. This is my 20th year of my broker's license, and we we're helping everyone from commercial clients to land clients to residential clients, whatever your situation is. We'd love to have the conversation. We're so grateful to be here. I hope you have an amazing there's the music. Have an amazing rest of your day, amazing week. Tune in tomorrow morning at 8 45. If you didn't get the chance to catch the whole show, you can certainly download us and follow us on the podcast. So have a great day. Have a great week. We'll see you tomorrow morning. The stairs, a little steeper, the pace of life, a little too fast. But what if your next move wasn't about letting go? It was about making space for peace, for freedom, for what matters the most. At the George Real Estate Group, we understand that real estate isn't just about the house. It's about transition, timing, and trust. We've helped thousands of families in Western North Carolina make smart moves. Closer to nature, closer to family, closer to home. So when you're ready to write size, simplify, or start fresh, we'll be here. The George Real Estate Group. Local, trusted, proven. Call us today, 828-393-0134. Find us online at realestatebygreg.com because your next chapter deserves to feel just right.

SPEAKER_00:

Thank you for listening to the George Real Estate Group Podcast. Tune in next time for more industry news, updates, and real estate tips. You can reach Greg, the George Real Estate Group, at 828 393 0134 or at realestatebygreg.com.