Upside
This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.
Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology.
From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems.
The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/
With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets.
Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com
Upside
Why Company Sovereignty Matters - China's $1trn Surplus Flood Zone - European Punching
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Upside is a weekly pod that looks at the global news headlines and works out what really matters for European tech, venture, startups and investing.
With European VCs - Lomax Ward, Dan Bowyer and Mads Jensen
What’s on the docket this week:
•SpaceX mega-raise / IPO noise: “what are you really buying?”
•“Europe’s euro success”: North–South polarity flipping
•China’s $1T+ goods trade surplus + what it means for Europe
•US defence spend reality check
•AI corner: chips, models, and AI bubble chatter
00:44 — Is DeepMind a “UK business”?
02:07 — Sovereignty is back baby!
•In defence / strategic sectors, cap table sovereignty now affects outcomes.
•Mentioned: UK rules requiring government consent in certain sectors (context: national security screening).
03:18 — DeepMind × UK DSIT partnership
•New partnership + UK research lab expansion; tied to the AI Security Institute and public services.
06:20 — AI tutor moment (education-focused Gemini)
•Vision: curriculum-grounded AI tutor as a once-in-a-generation lever for education.
08:56 — SpaceX: IPO in 2026? Raise ~ $30B? Valuation talk: $1.5T
•Why IPO now if private markets still open? Answer: scale + capital needs + timing.
◦Starlink: fast-growing, high-margin connectivity “golden goose”
14:18 — The “rest of the valuation”: orbital data centres thesis
•Speculative upside: compute in orbit (solar intensity, cooling, vacuum data transmission).
•Reality check: today’s revenue is tiny; power + mass constraints are brutal.
•Europe lens: founder talent often needs the US ecosystem to build at this frontier.
20:02 — Europe gets hit from both sides: US + China
•US signals Western Europe is lower priority; more warmth to Central/Eastern Europe (per discussion).
•China’s exports keep powering ahead; tariffs leak via third-country routing.
25:45 — Musk vs EU + the single-market problem
•Musk lobs political grenades after X/EU regulatory action (context: DSA).
•Core structural issue raised: no true EU single market in financial services → higher friction + lost productivity.
29:17 — Defence spending
•Warning to VCs: commitments don’t equal budgets landing now.
•Startup mismatch: defence procurement cycles vs 18–24 month funding cadence.
32:19 — AI corner: “bubble” talk + positioning
•Institutions trimming exposure at the margin, but not fleeing.
•View expressed: still upside runway, despite concentration and risk-off hedging.
33:44 — Europe W: Mistral open-sources DevStral 2 (coding model)
•Narrative: Europe “back in the open-source game.”
•Contrast: Meta reportedly leaning toward a closed model strategy (“Avocado” mentioned).
35:23 — Chips geopolitics: Nvidia H200s, China domestic ramp
•Thesis: export controls accelerate Chinese domestic chip ecosystems.
•Mentions: Huawei Ascend; Moore Threads momentum (plus broader “self-reliance” logic).
38:18 — Deal of the week: Unconventional AI — $475M seed
