The Global Carbon Budget

This podcast examines how well the world is doing, cutting carbon emissions.

Transcript

The Global Carbon Budget

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) is a group of scientists who study and track carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions around the world.  They gather and analyse data so everyone can understand how emissions are changing each year.  Their work is very important for understanding climate change—even though it sometimes goes unnoticed. 

Highlights from 2025’s Carbon Emissions are:
There are Two Main Types of Emissions
- CO₂ emissions come mainly from:
Fossil fuels (oil,  coal,  natural gas,  and cement production)
and
Land use changes (like deforestation and wildfires)
In 2025:
Fossil fuel emissions increased by about 1%. 
Land use change emissions decreased. 
Even though land use change emissions fell,  fossil emissions rose enough that total global emissions stayed almost the same as last year—around 42 billion tonnes . 

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Still Rising
Fossil fuel emissions are still going up,  not down as they should if we want to fight climate change. 
Coal and cement emissions rose only slightly (less than 1%) . 

Major Regions: What’s Happening in Each? 

China’s emissions are expected to rise by just 0.4%,  which could mean its emissions may soon stop growing completely. 
The change is mainly because China built lots of solar and wind power,  so almost no extra coal was needed. 

Experts think China’s emissions will stop increasing between 2026 and 2030 . 

The US and EU are expected to see a small emissions increase this year,  breaking their longer trend of falling emissions. 

In the US,  more gas exports made gas expensive,  so coal became more attractive for energy,  especially during cold weather. 

The EU used more natural gas because wind and hydropower were weaker than expected.  These changes may turn out to be temporary. 

India’s emissions will grow,  but less than last year.  Early rains reduced the need for cooling,  and renewable energy grew quickly,  keeping coal use low. 

Japan’s emissions fell by around 2% because it restarted some nuclear power plants and added more solar energy,  replacing coal. 

Land Use Change: Some Good News
Land use change emissions dropped.  
Why?  
There were fewer big wildfires,  and countries like Brazil cut back on deforestation. 

Tracking land use emissions is hard,  but the data this year seems positive. 

The Global Carbon Budget: Can We Meet Targets? 
The world wants to keep the temperature rise below 1.5°C,  but with current emissions,  it’s almost impossible.  At the current rate (42 billion tonnes per year),  we only have about four years left before the “budget” to stay below 1.5°C runs out. 

If we worked really hard,  we might slow the rise enough to stretch that to five years—but it would mean cutting global emissions by 20% right away,  which is very difficult. 

Staying under 2°C is still possible,  but only with much stronger actions.  Even if the world misses the target by a little,  every reduction in emissions means less damage from climate change. 

Thank you for listening to this Geography Expert podcast.  
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