{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.45,"endTime":1.89,"body":"- If I go quite quickly,"},{"startTime":1.89,"endTime":3.47,"body":"if I'm going too quickly"},{"startTime":1.89,"endTime":3.47,"body":"stick your hand up"},{"startTime":3.47,"endTime":5.19,"body":"and say you're going too quickly."},{"startTime":5.19,"endTime":8.62,"body":"But I'll try and cover,"},{"startTime":5.19,"endTime":8.62,"body":"basically these lessons."},{"startTime":8.62,"endTime":10.49,"body":"The lessons what we've"},{"startTime":8.62,"endTime":10.49,"body":"learned about the process"},{"startTime":10.49,"endTime":13.32,"body":"of leaving the European"},{"startTime":10.49,"endTime":13.32,"body":"Union is lesson number one."},{"startTime":13.32,"endTime":14.86,"body":"What we've learned about trying to govern"},{"startTime":14.86,"endTime":17.24,"body":"a divided country is lesson two."},{"startTime":17.24,"endTime":20.1,"body":"What we've learned about"},{"startTime":17.24,"endTime":20.1,"body":"our system of governance"},{"startTime":20.1,"endTime":22.81,"body":"is the third set of lessons,"},{"startTime":20.1,"endTime":22.81,"body":"how our constitution works."},{"startTime":22.81,"endTime":24.463,"body":"What we've learned about trade."},{"startTime":25.32,"endTime":26.397,"body":"What we've learned about ourselves"},{"startTime":26.397,"endTime":28.73,"body":"and at the end, I'll"},{"startTime":26.397,"endTime":28.73,"body":"speculate very briefly"},{"startTime":28.73,"endTime":31.12,"body":"about what might come"},{"startTime":28.73,"endTime":31.12,"body":"next in this Brexit saga,"},{"startTime":31.12,"endTime":32.9,"body":"because you'll be delighted to know"},{"startTime":32.9,"endTime":37.52,"body":"that whilst Brexit is done,"},{"startTime":32.9,"endTime":37.52,"body":"it is nowhere near over."},{"startTime":37.52,"endTime":38.69,"body":"(audience members laugh)"},{"startTime":38.69,"endTime":43.54,"body":"So first and foremost,"},{"startTime":38.69,"endTime":43.54,"body":"there were lots of claims"},{"startTime":43.54,"endTime":45.797,"body":"that leaving the European"},{"startTime":43.54,"endTime":45.797,"body":"Union will be very, very easy."},{"startTime":45.797,"endTime":49.29,"body":"\"The easiest trade deal in"},{"startTime":45.797,"endTime":49.29,"body":"history\" was one quote we heard."},{"startTime":49.29,"endTime":51.14,"body":"None of those claims were taken seriously"},{"startTime":51.14,"endTime":53.61,"body":"by anyone who had the faintest inkling of"},{"startTime":53.61,"endTime":56.34,"body":"how the European Union works."},{"startTime":56.34,"endTime":58.33,"body":"And indeed to be honest,"},{"startTime":58.33,"endTime":60.58,"body":"the Brexit has had it right all along."},{"startTime":60.58,"endTime":63.72,"body":"It was the Euro skeptics"},{"startTime":60.58,"endTime":63.72,"body":"back in the 1990s,"},{"startTime":63.72,"endTime":67.82,"body":"who would say the"},{"startTime":63.72,"endTime":67.82,"body":"European Union has wrongly"},{"startTime":67.82,"endTime":69.84,"body":"inveigled itself into the nooks"},{"startTime":69.84,"endTime":72.13,"body":"and crannies of national life."},{"startTime":72.13,"endTime":73.6,"body":"They were spot on,"},{"startTime":73.6,"endTime":75.89,"body":"but because the European"},{"startTime":73.6,"endTime":75.89,"body":"Union had done that,"},{"startTime":75.89,"endTime":78.69,"body":"leaving it was always going to be"},{"startTime":78.69,"endTime":81.54,"body":"a very, very messy, complicated,"},{"startTime":81.54,"endTime":84.86,"body":"technical time-consuming business."},{"startTime":84.86,"endTime":87.6,"body":"Think about it, there were"},{"startTime":84.86,"endTime":87.6,"body":"some really serious issues"},{"startTime":87.6,"endTime":90.48,"body":"to be sorted out from the get-go."},{"startTime":90.48,"endTime":93.91,"body":"Money, we had to figure"},{"startTime":90.48,"endTime":93.91,"body":"out how much we owed."},{"startTime":93.91,"endTime":95.35,"body":"How you dealt with the question of"},{"startTime":95.35,"endTime":98.88,"body":"the rights of EU citizens"},{"startTime":95.35,"endTime":98.88,"body":"here and of UK citizens there."},{"startTime":98.88,"endTime":101.21,"body":"Some questions haven't,"},{"startTime":98.88,"endTime":101.21,"body":"actually, been settled as yet."},{"startTime":101.21,"endTime":103.67,"body":"Though, there was a deal"},{"startTime":101.21,"endTime":103.67,"body":"and I'll come back to that."},{"startTime":103.67,"endTime":105.83,"body":"And of course, we had to"},{"startTime":103.67,"endTime":105.83,"body":"figure out how we wanted"},{"startTime":105.83,"endTime":109.24,"body":"to co-exist with the European"},{"startTime":105.83,"endTime":109.24,"body":"Union into the future."},{"startTime":109.24,"endTime":111.43,"body":"So there was an awful lot to do"},{"startTime":111.43,"endTime":115.89,"body":"and that was made even"},{"startTime":111.43,"endTime":115.89,"body":"harder by Article 50."},{"startTime":115.89,"endTime":118.26,"body":"The infamous Article 50 that set out"},{"startTime":118.26,"endTime":121.16,"body":"a ludicrous two-year timetable"},{"startTime":121.16,"endTime":122.93,"body":"for getting all this sorted out,"},{"startTime":122.93,"endTime":126.17,"body":"which was made even worse"},{"startTime":122.93,"endTime":126.17,"body":"by the EU's insistence"},{"startTime":126.17,"endTime":129.57,"body":"that the past had to be"},{"startTime":126.17,"endTime":129.57,"body":"sorted out before the future."},{"startTime":129.57,"endTime":131.55,"body":"So the EU said you can't talk"},{"startTime":129.57,"endTime":131.55,"body":"about a future trade deal,"},{"startTime":131.55,"endTime":134.073,"body":"you have to talk about resolving"},{"startTime":131.55,"endTime":134.073,"body":"the issues of the past."},{"startTime":135.31,"endTime":139.39,"body":"The EU position wasn't entirely fair,"},{"startTime":139.39,"endTime":141.79,"body":"because having said you've got"},{"startTime":139.39,"endTime":141.79,"body":"to deal solely with the past,"},{"startTime":141.79,"endTime":143.51,"body":"they then spent most of the 18 months"},{"startTime":143.51,"endTime":144.95,"body":"discussing the Northern Ireland protocol"},{"startTime":144.95,"endTime":146.45,"body":"which was about the future."},{"startTime":146.45,"endTime":147.57,"body":"But no one accuses people of"},{"startTime":147.57,"endTime":149.72,"body":"international negotiations"},{"startTime":147.57,"endTime":149.72,"body":"of being consistent."},{"startTime":149.72,"endTime":152.53,"body":"You do what you need to"},{"startTime":149.72,"endTime":152.53,"body":"do to get what you want."},{"startTime":152.53,"endTime":155.5,"body":"But Article 50 made what"},{"startTime":152.53,"endTime":155.5,"body":"would've been a nightmare anyway,"},{"startTime":155.5,"endTime":156.67,"body":"even more difficult."},{"startTime":156.67,"endTime":161.66,"body":"And in Article 50 you"},{"startTime":156.67,"endTime":161.66,"body":"will see it talks about"},{"startTime":161.66,"endTime":164.9,"body":"the constitutional"},{"startTime":161.66,"endTime":164.9,"body":"processes in member states."},{"startTime":164.9,"endTime":166.42,"body":"There's a little hint of the fact"},{"startTime":166.42,"endTime":168.9,"body":"that there are even more"},{"startTime":166.42,"endTime":168.9,"body":"complicated issues apart from"},{"startTime":168.9,"endTime":171.633,"body":"the negotiations themselves,"},{"startTime":168.9,"endTime":171.633,"body":"which I'll come back to."},{"startTime":172.49,"endTime":174.4,"body":"Actually as it turns out,"},{"startTime":174.4,"endTime":177.29,"body":"the EU and the UK were"},{"startTime":174.4,"endTime":177.29,"body":"pretty damn efficient."},{"startTime":177.29,"endTime":179.83,"body":"They figured out citizens"},{"startTime":177.29,"endTime":179.83,"body":"rights, pretty fast."},{"startTime":179.83,"endTime":181.14,"body":"It's a complicated settlement."},{"startTime":181.14,"endTime":183.74,"body":"It had to be, you're talking"},{"startTime":181.14,"endTime":183.74,"body":"about 5 million people."},{"startTime":184.88,"endTime":186.69,"body":"And what they came up"},{"startTime":184.88,"endTime":186.69,"body":"with won't be perfect"},{"startTime":186.69,"endTime":188.17,"body":"and I'm sure we'll see court cases"},{"startTime":188.17,"endTime":189.61,"body":"and you see headlines about people"},{"startTime":189.61,"endTime":191.62,"body":"who feel they've being denied"},{"startTime":189.61,"endTime":191.62,"body":"their rights and so on,"},{"startTime":191.62,"endTime":193.31,"body":"but they came to an agreement."},{"startTime":193.31,"endTime":195.59,"body":"Money was even more striking."},{"startTime":195.59,"endTime":197.663,"body":"The UK, basically, caved on the money."},{"startTime":198.52,"endTime":200.4,"body":"After newspaper headlines intimating"},{"startTime":200.4,"endTime":201.88,"body":"that this would be a deal breaker,"},{"startTime":201.88,"endTime":203.41,"body":"the UK essentially agreed"},{"startTime":203.41,"endTime":205.82,"body":"to what the European Union suggested."},{"startTime":205.82,"endTime":207.89,"body":"So those two big issues,"},{"startTime":207.89,"endTime":209.13,"body":"they sort of underlined in a way"},{"startTime":209.13,"endTime":211.14,"body":"how unpredictable the"},{"startTime":209.13,"endTime":211.14,"body":"whole Brexit process was,"},{"startTime":211.14,"endTime":213.58,"body":"because the things that most"},{"startTime":211.14,"endTime":213.58,"body":"experts, myself included,"},{"startTime":213.58,"endTime":216.43,"body":"were thinking, oh my God, this"},{"startTime":213.58,"endTime":216.43,"body":"is going to be a nightmare,"},{"startTime":216.43,"endTime":217.79,"body":"they managed to sort out."},{"startTime":217.79,"endTime":220.09,"body":"What, of course, most"},{"startTime":217.79,"endTime":220.09,"body":"people failed to see coming"},{"startTime":220.09,"endTime":222.65,"body":"was that Northern Ireland took"},{"startTime":220.09,"endTime":222.65,"body":"up most of the negotiations"},{"startTime":222.65,"endTime":225.85,"body":"and I'll come back to Northern"},{"startTime":222.65,"endTime":225.85,"body":"Ireland in a bit more detail,"},{"startTime":225.85,"endTime":227.46,"body":"a bit later."},{"startTime":227.46,"endTime":230.09,"body":"But sorting out the European"},{"startTime":227.46,"endTime":230.09,"body":"Union in the negotiations"},{"startTime":230.09,"endTime":231.7,"body":"was only part of the issue of Brexit."},{"startTime":231.7,"endTime":233.85,"body":"The other part of the issue of Brexit"},{"startTime":233.85,"endTime":238.41,"body":"with getting ourselves ready"},{"startTime":233.85,"endTime":238.41,"body":"to leave the European Union."},{"startTime":238.41,"endTime":240.26,"body":"And there's not a little irony in the fact"},{"startTime":240.26,"endTime":243.0,"body":"that leaving an organization"},{"startTime":240.26,"endTime":243.0,"body":"that had been accused"},{"startTime":243.0,"endTime":246.24,"body":"by its critics of being"},{"startTime":243.0,"endTime":246.24,"body":"overly bureaucratic"},{"startTime":246.24,"endTime":249.81,"body":"was a process that ended up"},{"startTime":246.24,"endTime":249.81,"body":"having 25,000 civil servants"},{"startTime":249.81,"endTime":252.21,"body":"in this country working on it."},{"startTime":252.21,"endTime":254.137,"body":"There were a one point in early 2020,"},{"startTime":254.137,"endTime":258.38,"body":"25,000 civil servants whose"},{"startTime":254.137,"endTime":258.38,"body":"job it was to deal with Brexit."},{"startTime":258.38,"endTime":260.274,"body":"The other thing about"},{"startTime":258.38,"endTime":260.274,"body":"leaving the European Union"},{"startTime":260.274,"endTime":261.47,"body":"that was slightly ironic is the fact"},{"startTime":261.47,"endTime":264.45,"body":"that leaving this legalistic labyrinth"},{"startTime":264.45,"endTime":268.07,"body":"required us to write a"},{"startTime":264.45,"endTime":268.07,"body":"whole load of new laws."},{"startTime":268.07,"endTime":269.48,"body":"There were two issues we faced."},{"startTime":269.48,"endTime":272.82,"body":"First, if you're a member"},{"startTime":269.48,"endTime":272.82,"body":"state of the European Union,"},{"startTime":272.82,"endTime":275.68,"body":"there are certain things the"},{"startTime":272.82,"endTime":275.68,"body":"European Union does for you."},{"startTime":275.68,"endTime":276.64,"body":"You can think about trade,"},{"startTime":276.64,"endTime":278.84,"body":"you can think about immigration"},{"startTime":276.64,"endTime":278.84,"body":"policy, for instance,"},{"startTime":278.84,"endTime":281.38,"body":"and when we left we suddenly"},{"startTime":278.84,"endTime":281.38,"body":"had this awful task of"},{"startTime":281.38,"endTime":284.84,"body":"figuring out which bits"},{"startTime":281.38,"endTime":284.84,"body":"of law we needed to write"},{"startTime":284.84,"endTime":286.62,"body":"to give ourselves the power to do things."},{"startTime":286.62,"endTime":288.78,"body":"It turned out halfway through the process,"},{"startTime":288.78,"endTime":290.9,"body":"there was no legal mechanism for the UK"},{"startTime":290.9,"endTime":292.88,"body":"to impose sanctions on a third state,"},{"startTime":292.88,"endTime":295.45,"body":"on a different state because"},{"startTime":292.88,"endTime":295.45,"body":"that's something we did"},{"startTime":295.45,"endTime":296.33,"body":"through the European Union."},{"startTime":296.33,"endTime":298.35,"body":"So there was hectic law writing"},{"startTime":298.35,"endTime":300.91,"body":"and then there was an even bigger problem."},{"startTime":300.91,"endTime":303.8,"body":"There were pages and"},{"startTime":300.91,"endTime":303.8,"body":"pages and pages of EU law"},{"startTime":303.8,"endTime":307.58,"body":"that applied to us, EU"},{"startTime":303.8,"endTime":307.58,"body":"regulations they're called,"},{"startTime":307.58,"endTime":310.68,"body":"but weren't actually on"},{"startTime":307.58,"endTime":310.68,"body":"the domestic statute book"},{"startTime":310.68,"endTime":313.71,"body":"because they hadn't been"},{"startTime":310.68,"endTime":313.71,"body":"incorporated into UK law."},{"startTime":313.71,"endTime":315.74,"body":"And so we passed this EU withdrawal bill,"},{"startTime":315.74,"endTime":320.28,"body":"which basically meant"},{"startTime":315.74,"endTime":320.28,"body":"literally thousands of EU rules"},{"startTime":320.28,"endTime":324.42,"body":"were shifted from EU law into"},{"startTime":320.28,"endTime":324.42,"body":"the body of domestic law."},{"startTime":324.42,"endTime":327.09,"body":"And it's worth saying, that"},{"startTime":324.42,"endTime":327.09,"body":"happened without much at all"},{"startTime":327.09,"endTime":328.95,"body":"in the way of parliamentary scrutiny"},{"startTime":328.95,"endTime":331.77,"body":"and those things now sit"},{"startTime":328.95,"endTime":331.77,"body":"on the statute books."},{"startTime":331.77,"endTime":334.26,"body":"So the whole thing was messy."},{"startTime":334.26,"endTime":335.81,"body":"You don't need telling"},{"startTime":334.26,"endTime":335.81,"body":"this, you lived through it."},{"startTime":335.81,"endTime":336.643,"body":"It was messy."},{"startTime":336.643,"endTime":338.66,"body":"It was complicated."},{"startTime":338.66,"endTime":340.31,"body":"It was a nightmare for the politicians"},{"startTime":340.31,"endTime":341.6,"body":"and civil servants involved in it."},{"startTime":341.6,"endTime":343.907,"body":"One of the implications"},{"startTime":341.6,"endTime":343.907,"body":"of the messiness of"},{"startTime":343.907,"endTime":345.36,"body":"the Brexit process, of course,"},{"startTime":345.36,"endTime":349.46,"body":"was it put other would be emulators off."},{"startTime":349.46,"endTime":351.94,"body":"It was very striking"},{"startTime":349.46,"endTime":351.94,"body":"during the Brexit process,"},{"startTime":351.94,"endTime":354.007,"body":"how quickly the national"},{"startTime":351.94,"endTime":354.007,"body":"front in France said,"},{"startTime":354.007,"endTime":356.19,"body":"actually, you know what?"},{"startTime":356.19,"endTime":358.24,"body":"We don't really want to"},{"startTime":356.19,"endTime":358.24,"body":"leave the European Union,"},{"startTime":358.24,"endTime":359.33,"body":"we just want to change it."},{"startTime":358.24,"endTime":359.33,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":359.33,"endTime":362.02,"body":"Because actually from the outside,"},{"startTime":362.02,"endTime":363.09,"body":"this looked like a nightmare."},{"startTime":363.09,"endTime":364.21,"body":"And of course, if you are French"},{"startTime":364.21,"endTime":365.62,"body":"and you're thinking of"},{"startTime":364.21,"endTime":365.62,"body":"leaving the European Union,"},{"startTime":365.62,"endTime":368.3,"body":"you've got the added"},{"startTime":365.62,"endTime":368.3,"body":"complication of getting back"},{"startTime":368.3,"endTime":370.12,"body":"your own currency at"},{"startTime":368.3,"endTime":370.12,"body":"the same time as well,"},{"startTime":370.12,"endTime":371.55,"body":"which would be even more messy"},{"startTime":371.55,"endTime":373.48,"body":"than the Brexit process we went through."},{"startTime":373.48,"endTime":376.4,"body":"So that's number one, leaving is hard."},{"startTime":376.4,"endTime":381.4,"body":"Number two, the implications"},{"startTime":376.4,"endTime":381.4,"body":"of what I've just said is"},{"startTime":381.45,"endTime":383.58,"body":"even with the best prime"},{"startTime":381.45,"endTime":383.58,"body":"minister in the world"},{"startTime":383.58,"endTime":386.07,"body":"with the biggest majority"},{"startTime":383.58,"endTime":386.07,"body":"we've ever heard of,"},{"startTime":386.07,"endTime":388.07,"body":"Brexit would've been tough."},{"startTime":388.07,"endTime":390.7,"body":"Neither of those conditions helped."},{"startTime":390.7,"endTime":392.09,"body":"We're dealing with a prime minister"},{"startTime":392.09,"endTime":394.98,"body":"who had her limitations"},{"startTime":392.09,"endTime":394.98,"body":"that we're all aware of now"},{"startTime":394.98,"endTime":396.45,"body":"governing for much of the time"},{"startTime":396.45,"endTime":398.91,"body":"without a parliamentary majority."},{"startTime":398.91,"endTime":400.47,"body":"There were two contextual things,"},{"startTime":400.47,"endTime":403.15,"body":"I think, that made"},{"startTime":400.47,"endTime":403.15,"body":"Brexit hard domestically."},{"startTime":403.15,"endTime":407.45,"body":"The first was that Theresa"},{"startTime":403.15,"endTime":407.45,"body":"May was a Remainer."},{"startTime":407.45,"endTime":408.91,"body":"And what that meant was she spent"},{"startTime":408.91,"endTime":410.34,"body":"much of the first year in office"},{"startTime":410.34,"endTime":413.28,"body":"desperately trying to prove"},{"startTime":410.34,"endTime":413.28,"body":"her Brexit credentials"},{"startTime":413.28,"endTime":415.38,"body":"to the real Brexiters in her party,"},{"startTime":415.38,"endTime":418.26,"body":"which is why at her conference"},{"startTime":415.38,"endTime":418.26,"body":"speech in October, 2016,"},{"startTime":418.26,"endTime":419.84,"body":"she took such a hard line."},{"startTime":419.84,"endTime":422.81,"body":"She laid down those red lines"},{"startTime":419.84,"endTime":422.81,"body":"about the European courts,"},{"startTime":422.81,"endTime":424.85,"body":"about trade, about immigration and so on."},{"startTime":424.85,"endTime":427.98,"body":"And actually, much of the"},{"startTime":424.85,"endTime":427.98,"body":"history of her premiership"},{"startTime":427.98,"endTime":431.47,"body":"was of her unsuccessful"},{"startTime":427.98,"endTime":431.47,"body":"efforts to row back"},{"startTime":431.47,"endTime":434.04,"body":"from those red lines in"},{"startTime":431.47,"endTime":434.04,"body":"the face of opposition"},{"startTime":434.04,"endTime":436.89,"body":"from those Brexiters she'd"},{"startTime":434.04,"endTime":436.89,"body":"initially tried to woo."},{"startTime":436.89,"endTime":439.02,"body":"The second contextual thing about Mrs. May"},{"startTime":439.02,"endTime":440.86,"body":"that I think really mattered is"},{"startTime":440.86,"endTime":442.49,"body":"she became prime minister without"},{"startTime":442.49,"endTime":445.93,"body":"the full leadership contest process."},{"startTime":445.93,"endTime":448.63,"body":"Because you remember, she was"},{"startTime":445.93,"endTime":448.63,"body":"basically elected unopposed"},{"startTime":448.63,"endTime":450.777,"body":"because her main opponents pulled out."},{"startTime":450.777,"endTime":453.26,"body":"And what that meant was the candidates"},{"startTime":453.26,"endTime":455.96,"body":"didn't have to lay out"},{"startTime":453.26,"endTime":455.96,"body":"their visions of Brexit,"},{"startTime":455.96,"endTime":458.54,"body":"argue about them and get their approval"},{"startTime":458.54,"endTime":461.03,"body":"from both the members and"},{"startTime":458.54,"endTime":461.03,"body":"the parliamentary party."},{"startTime":461.03,"endTime":462.83,"body":"If that had been the case,"},{"startTime":462.83,"endTime":464.82,"body":"she would've enjoyed some"},{"startTime":462.83,"endTime":464.82,"body":"legitimacy in saying,"},{"startTime":464.82,"endTime":466.8,"body":"I won a contest based on this vision,"},{"startTime":466.8,"endTime":469.62,"body":"so you lot are now"},{"startTime":466.8,"endTime":469.62,"body":"honor-bound to support it."},{"startTime":469.62,"endTime":470.453,"body":"There was none of that."},{"startTime":470.453,"endTime":473.48,"body":"No one had signed off on her vision."},{"startTime":473.48,"endTime":475.02,"body":"The other contextual thing,"},{"startTime":475.02,"endTime":480.02,"body":"which is absolutely crucial,"},{"startTime":475.02,"endTime":480.02,"body":"is Brexit isn't a thing."},{"startTime":480.66,"endTime":482.81,"body":"All right, the referendum was binary."},{"startTime":482.81,"endTime":484.46,"body":"We stay in or we leave."},{"startTime":484.46,"endTime":485.46,"body":"The day after we left,"},{"startTime":485.46,"endTime":486.73,"body":"we suddenly woke up to the fact"},{"startTime":486.73,"endTime":488.14,"body":"what the hell does leave mean?"},{"startTime":488.14,"endTime":490.77,"body":"There are all sorts of different ways"},{"startTime":490.77,"endTime":492.95,"body":"in which we can leave the European Union."},{"startTime":492.95,"endTime":495.15,"body":"For economists this summarizes"},{"startTime":495.15,"endTime":497.26,"body":"what is called the Condorcet paradox,"},{"startTime":497.26,"endTime":499.62,"body":"which is when you have"},{"startTime":497.26,"endTime":499.62,"body":"more than two choices,"},{"startTime":499.62,"endTime":502.39,"body":"it is sometimes very,"},{"startTime":499.62,"endTime":502.39,"body":"very hard for a majority"},{"startTime":502.39,"endTime":504.83,"body":"to emerge in support of any of them."},{"startTime":504.83,"endTime":506.3,"body":"And I'll come back to that in a moment,"},{"startTime":506.3,"endTime":510.07,"body":"because the fact that we had"},{"startTime":506.3,"endTime":510.07,"body":"a slight majority for leave"},{"startTime":510.07,"endTime":511.5,"body":"never meant we had a majority"},{"startTime":511.5,"endTime":514.22,"body":"for any particular version of leave,"},{"startTime":514.22,"endTime":515.21,"body":"because the British people"},{"startTime":515.21,"endTime":519.76,"body":"and the British politicians"},{"startTime":515.21,"endTime":519.76,"body":"split more than two ways."},{"startTime":519.76,"endTime":521.45,"body":"And so these divisions were there"},{"startTime":521.45,"endTime":523.64,"body":"and they existed at every single level."},{"startTime":523.64,"endTime":525.76,"body":"They existed in the Cabinet,"},{"startTime":525.76,"endTime":528.19,"body":"which you think back to"},{"startTime":525.76,"endTime":528.19,"body":"the days of Theresa May"},{"startTime":528.19,"endTime":529.61,"body":"the Cabinet leaked all the time"},{"startTime":529.61,"endTime":531.41,"body":"certain information couldn't be shared."},{"startTime":531.41,"endTime":533.296,"body":"The Treasury's economic forecasts"},{"startTime":533.296,"endTime":537.17,"body":"couldn't be given to the"},{"startTime":533.296,"endTime":537.17,"body":"Cabinet in case it was leaked."},{"startTime":537.17,"endTime":540.09,"body":"So you had divisions at"},{"startTime":537.17,"endTime":540.09,"body":"the very top of government."},{"startTime":540.09,"endTime":542.55,"body":"And if you want to sort of"},{"startTime":540.09,"endTime":542.55,"body":"look at it comparatively,"},{"startTime":542.55,"endTime":546.34,"body":"that vertical line, they"},{"startTime":542.55,"endTime":546.34,"body":"represent the number of"},{"startTime":546.34,"endTime":548.51,"body":"resignations from Cabinet."},{"startTime":548.51,"endTime":549.97,"body":"And you see that as a competition"},{"startTime":549.97,"endTime":554.01,"body":"in terms of sheer rapidity,"},{"startTime":549.97,"endTime":554.01,"body":"but Theresa May wins,"},{"startTime":554.01,"endTime":555.05,"body":"hands down."},{"startTime":554.01,"endTime":555.05,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":555.05,"endTime":555.883,"body":"Okay."},{"startTime":555.883,"endTime":557.46,"body":"So you're dealing with a government"},{"startTime":557.46,"endTime":560.47,"body":"which itself is very divided"},{"startTime":560.47,"endTime":561.51,"body":"and under the government,"},{"startTime":561.51,"endTime":565.63,"body":"you also have a political"},{"startTime":561.51,"endTime":565.63,"body":"party that is very divided."},{"startTime":565.63,"endTime":567.22,"body":"I mean it's easy to criticize Mrs. May,"},{"startTime":567.22,"endTime":569.2,"body":"and she was far from perfect,"},{"startTime":569.2,"endTime":571.47,"body":"but it would've been a struggle for anyone"},{"startTime":571.47,"endTime":575.43,"body":"to get coherence from a"},{"startTime":571.47,"endTime":575.43,"body":"political party in parliament"},{"startTime":575.43,"endTime":579.36,"body":"that consisted of Dominic"},{"startTime":575.43,"endTime":579.36,"body":"Grieve and Mark Francois,"},{"startTime":579.36,"endTime":582.56,"body":"where the dominant issue"},{"startTime":579.36,"endTime":582.56,"body":"on the agenda was Brexit."},{"startTime":582.56,"endTime":585.24,"body":"So the parliamentary party"},{"startTime":582.56,"endTime":585.24,"body":"was completely divided,"},{"startTime":585.24,"endTime":586.49,"body":"which meant that party unity"},{"startTime":586.49,"endTime":588.57,"body":"and party discipline"},{"startTime":586.49,"endTime":588.57,"body":"went out of the window."},{"startTime":588.57,"endTime":589.59,"body":"And of course on the other side,"},{"startTime":589.59,"endTime":591.97,"body":"you have a Labour Party"},{"startTime":589.59,"endTime":591.97,"body":"that spent most of its time"},{"startTime":591.97,"endTime":593.4,"body":"fighting its own leader."},{"startTime":593.4,"endTime":596.177,"body":"So those days when party"},{"startTime":593.4,"endTime":596.177,"body":"leaders could count on"},{"startTime":596.177,"endTime":598.27,"body":"the support of their troops,"},{"startTime":598.27,"endTime":600.78,"body":"seemed to be a thing of the past."},{"startTime":600.78,"endTime":605.45,"body":"And then if you look at"},{"startTime":600.78,"endTime":605.45,"body":"Parliament as a whole,"},{"startTime":605.45,"endTime":606.98,"body":"there was an absence"},{"startTime":605.45,"endTime":606.98,"body":"of a majority of there."},{"startTime":606.98,"endTime":609.15,"body":"Now you can take your"},{"startTime":606.98,"endTime":609.15,"body":"pick about which culprit"},{"startTime":609.15,"endTime":612.32,"body":"you want to finger as"},{"startTime":609.15,"endTime":612.32,"body":"the person who, you know,"},{"startTime":612.32,"endTime":614.939,"body":"failed us during the Brexit process."},{"startTime":614.939,"endTime":617.18,"body":"There are lots of potential"},{"startTime":614.939,"endTime":617.18,"body":"culprits to choose from."},{"startTime":617.18,"endTime":619.13,"body":"One thing I would say, and"},{"startTime":617.18,"endTime":619.13,"body":"one thing that is curious,"},{"startTime":619.13,"endTime":622.29,"body":"is for all the talk about"},{"startTime":619.13,"endTime":622.29,"body":"Brexit being the new division"},{"startTime":622.29,"endTime":626.13,"body":"in British politics is"},{"startTime":622.29,"endTime":626.13,"body":"the actual traditional"},{"startTime":626.13,"endTime":628.79,"body":"left-right politics in the end triumphed."},{"startTime":628.79,"endTime":630.39,"body":"By the end of the Brexit process,"},{"startTime":630.39,"endTime":632.87,"body":"by the end of her time in government,"},{"startTime":632.87,"endTime":637.25,"body":"Mrs. May had negotiated a Brexit deal"},{"startTime":637.25,"endTime":640.91,"body":"that didn't really differ"},{"startTime":637.25,"endTime":640.91,"body":"in any substantive respect"},{"startTime":640.91,"endTime":643.47,"body":"from what the Labour Party were demanding."},{"startTime":643.47,"endTime":645.75,"body":"There was a customs union of sorts."},{"startTime":645.75,"endTime":648.25,"body":"There was a kind of"},{"startTime":645.75,"endTime":648.25,"body":"single market membership,"},{"startTime":648.25,"endTime":649.23,"body":"certainly for goods,"},{"startTime":649.23,"endTime":651.37,"body":"to prevent that border"},{"startTime":649.23,"endTime":651.37,"body":"in Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":651.37,"endTime":653.63,"body":"There was the possibility"},{"startTime":651.37,"endTime":653.63,"body":"of extending this"},{"startTime":653.63,"endTime":655.89,"body":"via membership in EU agencies."},{"startTime":655.89,"endTime":658.82,"body":"That was, basically, what"},{"startTime":655.89,"endTime":658.82,"body":"Jeremy Corbyn was calling for."},{"startTime":658.82,"endTime":661.22,"body":"And many people on"},{"startTime":658.82,"endTime":661.22,"body":"Jeremy Corbyn's benches,"},{"startTime":661.22,"endTime":663.82,"body":"if you think about those various MPs"},{"startTime":663.82,"endTime":665.74,"body":"who came from leave supporting seats,"},{"startTime":665.74,"endTime":667.22,"body":"who might not have liked Brexit"},{"startTime":667.22,"endTime":670.92,"body":"but had promised to support"},{"startTime":667.22,"endTime":670.92,"body":"Brexit, wanted a soft Brexit,"},{"startTime":670.92,"endTime":672.91,"body":"you would've thought"},{"startTime":670.92,"endTime":672.91,"body":"that many of those people"},{"startTime":672.91,"endTime":675.08,"body":"might've backed Theresa May's deal,"},{"startTime":675.08,"endTime":676.89,"body":"but in the end they didn't,"},{"startTime":675.08,"endTime":676.89,"body":"and why didn't they?"},{"startTime":676.89,"endTime":677.76,"body":"Because of politics."},{"startTime":677.76,"endTime":680.44,"body":"Because, ultimately, a Labour politician"},{"startTime":680.44,"endTime":683.88,"body":"voting in favor of a conservative Brexit"},{"startTime":683.88,"endTime":685.45,"body":"would've had a very, very hard time"},{"startTime":685.45,"endTime":687.28,"body":"justifying themselves to their electorate"},{"startTime":687.28,"endTime":689.54,"body":"and to their constituency parties."},{"startTime":689.54,"endTime":692.01,"body":"So the Labour Party"},{"startTime":689.54,"endTime":692.01,"body":"failed to support a deal,"},{"startTime":692.01,"endTime":694.26,"body":"which on the surface"},{"startTime":692.01,"endTime":694.26,"body":"they could've supported."},{"startTime":696.07,"endTime":697.58,"body":"And what this leads to is"},{"startTime":697.58,"endTime":700.98,"body":"Mrs. May's meaningful votes, so-called."},{"startTime":700.98,"endTime":702.81,"body":"So in her first meaningful vote,"},{"startTime":702.81,"endTime":704.87,"body":"she has the biggest defeat"},{"startTime":702.81,"endTime":704.87,"body":"a government has suffered"},{"startTime":704.87,"endTime":706.98,"body":"in the House of Commons"},{"startTime":704.87,"endTime":706.98,"body":"for a hundred years."},{"startTime":706.98,"endTime":709.07,"body":"A few weeks later in the"},{"startTime":706.98,"endTime":709.07,"body":"second meaningful vote,"},{"startTime":709.07,"endTime":709.98,"body":"which was an improvement,"},{"startTime":709.98,"endTime":712.46,"body":"it was the fourth"},{"startTime":709.98,"endTime":712.46,"body":"biggest government defeat"},{"startTime":712.46,"endTime":714.65,"body":"in the era of universal suffrage"},{"startTime":714.65,"endTime":717.58,"body":"because that Parliament simply could not"},{"startTime":717.58,"endTime":719.71,"body":"get its act together to figure out"},{"startTime":719.71,"endTime":722.017,"body":"what it wanted from Brexit."},{"startTime":722.017,"endTime":724.15,"body":"And one of the reasons"},{"startTime":722.017,"endTime":724.15,"body":"why it couldn't figure out"},{"startTime":724.15,"endTime":727.36,"body":"what it wanted for Brexit"},{"startTime":724.15,"endTime":727.36,"body":"is you have polarization."},{"startTime":727.36,"endTime":729.22,"body":"One of the striking things that happens"},{"startTime":729.22,"endTime":731.08,"body":"during the Brexit process is the people"},{"startTime":731.08,"endTime":733.8,"body":"who favored a second"},{"startTime":731.08,"endTime":733.8,"body":"referendum on the one hand"},{"startTime":733.8,"endTime":735.93,"body":"and a no-deal Brexit on the other hand,"},{"startTime":735.93,"endTime":740.45,"body":"did everything they could to"},{"startTime":735.93,"endTime":740.45,"body":"pursue a scorched earth policy"},{"startTime":740.45,"endTime":743.31,"body":"towards anything that"},{"startTime":740.45,"endTime":743.31,"body":"smacked of compromise."},{"startTime":743.31,"endTime":745.09,"body":"People who wanted a second referendum"},{"startTime":745.09,"endTime":748.74,"body":"would throw mud at people who"},{"startTime":745.09,"endTime":748.74,"body":"wanted a Norway-style Brexit."},{"startTime":748.74,"endTime":751.18,"body":"People who wanted a no-deal"},{"startTime":748.74,"endTime":751.18,"body":"Brexit would throw mud"},{"startTime":751.18,"endTime":753.4,"body":"at people who were willing"},{"startTime":751.18,"endTime":753.4,"body":"to compromise a little bit"},{"startTime":753.4,"endTime":755.96,"body":"with the European Union"},{"startTime":753.4,"endTime":755.96,"body":"to get any sort of deal."},{"startTime":755.96,"endTime":757.31,"body":"And what this meant was"},{"startTime":757.31,"endTime":760.93,"body":"when it came to those"},{"startTime":757.31,"endTime":760.93,"body":"infamous indicative votes,"},{"startTime":760.93,"endTime":763.35,"body":"you remember the indicative votes we had?"},{"startTime":763.35,"endTime":764.483,"body":"That is they."},{"startTime":766.04,"endTime":769.46,"body":"None of them, could muster a majority."},{"startTime":769.46,"endTime":771.03,"body":"Supporters of a second referendum,"},{"startTime":771.03,"endTime":774.46,"body":"refused to vote for a customs"},{"startTime":771.03,"endTime":774.46,"body":"union or a single market."},{"startTime":774.46,"endTime":776.6,"body":"Supporters of a no-deal"},{"startTime":774.46,"endTime":776.6,"body":"Brexit refused to vote"},{"startTime":776.6,"endTime":779.03,"body":"for any form of Brexit, apart"},{"startTime":776.6,"endTime":779.03,"body":"from the one they wanted."},{"startTime":779.03,"endTime":782.2,"body":"And this polarization"},{"startTime":779.03,"endTime":782.2,"body":"meant that Parliament"},{"startTime":782.2,"endTime":787.2,"body":"was simply unable to"},{"startTime":782.2,"endTime":787.2,"body":"decide what it wanted."},{"startTime":787.4,"endTime":789.37,"body":"Now, many people at the time were saying"},{"startTime":789.37,"endTime":791.38,"body":"this shows how dysfunctional"},{"startTime":789.37,"endTime":791.38,"body":"our Parliament was."},{"startTime":791.38,"endTime":793.52,"body":"Well maybe, but actually"},{"startTime":791.38,"endTime":793.52,"body":"another way of looking at it"},{"startTime":793.52,"endTime":797.15,"body":"is this illustrated how"},{"startTime":793.52,"endTime":797.15,"body":"perfectly representative"},{"startTime":797.15,"endTime":800.27,"body":"Parliament was of the people it governed,"},{"startTime":800.27,"endTime":802.903,"body":"because we couldn't decide"},{"startTime":800.27,"endTime":802.903,"body":"what we wanted either."},{"startTime":804.41,"endTime":807.71,"body":"I talked to you earlier"},{"startTime":804.41,"endTime":807.71,"body":"about the Condorcet paradox."},{"startTime":807.71,"endTime":809.86,"body":"That is the Condorcet paradox."},{"startTime":809.86,"endTime":811.223,"body":"That is public opinion."},{"startTime":812.19,"endTime":815.83,"body":"There is no majority in public opinion"},{"startTime":815.83,"endTime":818.43,"body":"for any Brexit option."},{"startTime":818.43,"endTime":820.95,"body":"So added to the complexity"},{"startTime":818.43,"endTime":820.95,"body":"of the task itself,"},{"startTime":820.95,"endTime":823.21,"body":"added to the problem of"},{"startTime":820.95,"endTime":823.21,"body":"divisions in Parliament,"},{"startTime":823.21,"endTime":826.2,"body":"there was the fact that"},{"startTime":823.21,"endTime":826.2,"body":"in the country as a whole"},{"startTime":827.1,"endTime":830.0,"body":"there was no Brexit option,"},{"startTime":830.0,"endTime":833.57,"body":"whether it was remain"},{"startTime":830.0,"endTime":833.57,"body":"or any variant of leave"},{"startTime":833.57,"endTime":836.56,"body":"that could command over 50% support."},{"startTime":836.56,"endTime":837.91,"body":"And that made the process"},{"startTime":837.91,"endTime":840.81,"body":"and the whole thing inherently unstable"},{"startTime":840.81,"endTime":843.75,"body":"and, in part, was"},{"startTime":840.81,"endTime":843.75,"body":"responsible for the situation"},{"startTime":843.75,"endTime":844.66,"body":"that we had to live through"},{"startTime":844.66,"endTime":846.15,"body":"for what seemed like an eternity,"},{"startTime":846.15,"endTime":848.597,"body":"but was actually only about five years."},{"startTime":848.597,"endTime":850.73,"body":"(audience members laugh)"},{"startTime":850.73,"endTime":853.83,"body":"The next thing that made this"},{"startTime":850.73,"endTime":853.83,"body":"hard and the next lesson,"},{"startTime":853.83,"endTime":856.97,"body":"I think, that we've"},{"startTime":853.83,"endTime":856.97,"body":"learned about Brexit is"},{"startTime":858.04,"endTime":860.751,"body":"God, we are a complicated country."},{"startTime":860.751,"endTime":861.75,"body":"(audience members laugh)"},{"startTime":861.75,"endTime":863.05,"body":"And we're a complicated country"},{"startTime":863.05,"endTime":865.23,"body":"not just in terms of the people in it,"},{"startTime":865.23,"endTime":866.72,"body":"but we're a complicated country"},{"startTime":866.72,"endTime":870.36,"body":"in terms of the system"},{"startTime":866.72,"endTime":870.36,"body":"by which we're governed."},{"startTime":870.36,"endTime":872.91,"body":"And I said earlier, I'd come"},{"startTime":870.36,"endTime":872.91,"body":"back to Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":872.91,"endTime":876.02,"body":"So one of the biggest sticking"},{"startTime":872.91,"endTime":876.02,"body":"points in the negotiations"},{"startTime":876.02,"endTime":878.16,"body":"and indeed now and if you've got questions"},{"startTime":878.16,"endTime":880.18,"body":"about the Protocol and the row now,"},{"startTime":880.18,"endTime":881.79,"body":"you can ask them at the end,"},{"startTime":881.79,"endTime":884.61,"body":"was the issue of Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":884.61,"endTime":886.58,"body":"And the problem with Brexit is Brexit"},{"startTime":886.58,"endTime":888.446,"body":"presented Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":888.446,"endTime":889.279,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":889.279,"endTime":892.41,"body":"it particularly presented Arlene Foster"},{"startTime":892.41,"endTime":897.41,"body":"with a host of unpalatable choices, okay."},{"startTime":897.43,"endTime":900.3,"body":"Because the issue with"},{"startTime":897.43,"endTime":900.3,"body":"Northern Ireland is summed up"},{"startTime":900.3,"endTime":901.393,"body":"in this diagram."},{"startTime":902.32,"endTime":906.26,"body":"This is the so-called"},{"startTime":902.32,"endTime":906.26,"body":"Northern Ireland Trilemma is"},{"startTime":906.26,"endTime":908.293,"body":"if you want no Irish border,"},{"startTime":910.66,"endTime":914.36,"body":"if you're leaving the single"},{"startTime":910.66,"endTime":914.36,"body":"market and the customs union,"},{"startTime":914.36,"endTime":919.36,"body":"you can't have a whole UK Brexit"},{"startTime":914.36,"endTime":919.36,"body":"and no Irish border, okay."},{"startTime":919.7,"endTime":921.88,"body":"You could only have two out of those three"},{"startTime":921.88,"endTime":923.06,"body":"at any given time."},{"startTime":923.06,"endTime":925.52,"body":"And that is the problem"},{"startTime":923.06,"endTime":925.52,"body":"we're wrestling with,"},{"startTime":925.52,"endTime":927.14,"body":"because the Conservative Party"},{"startTime":927.14,"endTime":929.61,"body":"wanted to leave the single"},{"startTime":927.14,"endTime":929.61,"body":"market and the customs union."},{"startTime":929.61,"endTime":931.25,"body":"They also wanted no Irish border."},{"startTime":931.25,"endTime":934.36,"body":"They also, as Theresa May"},{"startTime":931.25,"endTime":934.36,"body":"said, wanted a whole UK Brexit"},{"startTime":934.36,"endTime":938.9,"body":"because as she said, no UK prime minister"},{"startTime":938.9,"endTime":942.85,"body":"can ever sign up to a deal"},{"startTime":938.9,"endTime":942.85,"body":"which involves placing a border"},{"startTime":942.85,"endTime":945.4,"body":"within the United Kingdom, okay."},{"startTime":945.4,"endTime":946.53,"body":"But she couldn't have all three."},{"startTime":946.53,"endTime":948.9,"body":"So in the end she"},{"startTime":946.53,"endTime":948.9,"body":"watered down the top one."},{"startTime":948.9,"endTime":952.7,"body":"She signed up to the backstop,"},{"startTime":948.9,"endTime":952.7,"body":"which meant that really"},{"startTime":952.7,"endTime":954.077,"body":"we weren't leaving the single market"},{"startTime":954.077,"endTime":957.08,"body":"and the customs union as"},{"startTime":954.077,"endTime":957.08,"body":"completely as her party liked."},{"startTime":957.08,"endTime":960.45,"body":"What Boris Johnson has done"},{"startTime":957.08,"endTime":960.45,"body":"is sacrificed the bottom left"},{"startTime":961.36,"endTime":963.94,"body":"because what he's agreed to is a Brexit"},{"startTime":963.94,"endTime":966.65,"body":"whereby Northern Ireland alone"},{"startTime":966.65,"endTime":969.8,"body":"remains within part of the single market"},{"startTime":969.8,"endTime":972.79,"body":"in order to prevent the"},{"startTime":969.8,"endTime":972.79,"body":"need for that border"},{"startTime":972.79,"endTime":975.75,"body":"between the north and"},{"startTime":972.79,"endTime":975.75,"body":"the south of Ireland."},{"startTime":975.75,"endTime":977.1,"body":"And that is why we're having that fight"},{"startTime":977.1,"endTime":979.13,"body":"over checks in the"},{"startTime":977.1,"endTime":979.13,"body":"Irish Sea at the moment,"},{"startTime":979.13,"endTime":982.22,"body":"because there is a regulatory border"},{"startTime":982.22,"endTime":984.59,"body":"between Great Britain"},{"startTime":982.22,"endTime":984.59,"body":"and Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":984.59,"endTime":987.3,"body":"because Northern Ireland is"},{"startTime":984.59,"endTime":987.3,"body":"part of the single market"},{"startTime":987.3,"endTime":988.133,"body":"for some things."},{"startTime":988.133,"endTime":990.9,"body":"And the European Union says"},{"startTime":988.133,"endTime":990.9,"body":"if it's part of our market,"},{"startTime":990.9,"endTime":993.17,"body":"we are going to check what"},{"startTime":990.9,"endTime":993.17,"body":"comes into our market."},{"startTime":993.17,"endTime":994.51,"body":"We have the right to check things"},{"startTime":994.51,"endTime":996.75,"body":"before they enter the single market."},{"startTime":996.75,"endTime":1001.35,"body":"So that immediately"},{"startTime":996.75,"endTime":1001.35,"body":"creates a massive problem"},{"startTime":1001.35,"endTime":1002.75,"body":"and that is why Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":1002.75,"endTime":1005.55,"body":"dominated the talks to the extent it did."},{"startTime":1005.55,"endTime":1008.02,"body":"But, of course, you know it"},{"startTime":1005.55,"endTime":1008.02,"body":"isn't only Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":1008.02,"endTime":1011.67,"body":"that's complicated in"},{"startTime":1008.02,"endTime":1011.67,"body":"our political system."},{"startTime":1011.67,"endTime":1013.46,"body":"I mean, Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":1011.67,"endTime":1013.46,"body":"is the thing we talk about,"},{"startTime":1013.46,"endTime":1015.03,"body":"but of course, Brexit is unsettled,"},{"startTime":1015.03,"endTime":1017.03,"body":"a devolution settlement more generally."},{"startTime":1017.03,"endTime":1018.4,"body":"Why?"},{"startTime":1018.4,"endTime":1021.17,"body":"Because that devolution"},{"startTime":1018.4,"endTime":1021.17,"body":"settlement, even if we weren't"},{"startTime":1021.17,"endTime":1024.3,"body":"fully consciously aware of it at the time,"},{"startTime":1024.3,"endTime":1027.48,"body":"was based on the fact of EU membership."},{"startTime":1027.48,"endTime":1029.65,"body":"Being in the European Union meant Scotland"},{"startTime":1029.65,"endTime":1030.953,"body":"could have different laws."},{"startTime":1032.03,"endTime":1033.417,"body":"But because they were in the single market"},{"startTime":1033.417,"endTime":1036.75,"body":"and the customs union, we didn't notice"},{"startTime":1036.75,"endTime":1038.46,"body":"because we were all bound by that"},{"startTime":1038.46,"endTime":1041.5,"body":"overarching European Union"},{"startTime":1038.46,"endTime":1041.5,"body":"law which meant that borders,"},{"startTime":1041.5,"endTime":1043.25,"body":"essentially, became less important."},{"startTime":1044.58,"endTime":1048.853,"body":"On top of that because"},{"startTime":1044.58,"endTime":1048.853,"body":"Scotland voted to remain,"},{"startTime":1049.9,"endTime":1051.68,"body":"Brexit and the Brexit vote itself"},{"startTime":1051.68,"endTime":1053.17,"body":"immediately caused tensions."},{"startTime":1053.17,"endTime":1055.81,"body":"And the UK government's"},{"startTime":1053.17,"endTime":1055.81,"body":"approach to that tension"},{"startTime":1055.81,"endTime":1059.4,"body":"in terms of both style and"},{"startTime":1055.81,"endTime":1059.4,"body":"substance was combative."},{"startTime":1059.4,"endTime":1061.03,"body":"So in terms of style,"},{"startTime":1061.03,"endTime":1064.32,"body":"this is the former Permanent"},{"startTime":1061.03,"endTime":1064.32,"body":"Secretary at DExEU,"},{"startTime":1064.32,"endTime":1067.43,"body":"a man who had many years"},{"startTime":1064.32,"endTime":1067.43,"body":"experience of working on"},{"startTime":1067.43,"endTime":1071.51,"body":"questions of devolution, who"},{"startTime":1067.43,"endTime":1071.51,"body":"was appalled as he says here,"},{"startTime":1071.51,"endTime":1074.12,"body":"by the way in which Number 10"},{"startTime":1074.12,"endTime":1077.06,"body":"dealt with the devolved governments."},{"startTime":1077.06,"endTime":1078.96,"body":"It didn't deal with them"},{"startTime":1077.06,"endTime":1078.96,"body":"as if they were governments"},{"startTime":1078.96,"endTime":1081.6,"body":"with their own legitimacy"},{"startTime":1078.96,"endTime":1081.6,"body":"in their own right."},{"startTime":1081.6,"endTime":1083.07,"body":"So there was a stylistic era"},{"startTime":1083.07,"endTime":1086.11,"body":"that served to ramp up feelings,"},{"startTime":1086.11,"endTime":1087.27,"body":"particularly in Scotland"},{"startTime":1087.27,"endTime":1088.77,"body":"but to some extent in Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":1088.77,"endTime":1090.08,"body":"and I'll come back again"},{"startTime":1088.77,"endTime":1090.08,"body":"to Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":1090.08,"endTime":1092.21,"body":"in a minute on public opinion."},{"startTime":1092.21,"endTime":1094.38,"body":"But secondly, the"},{"startTime":1092.21,"endTime":1094.38,"body":"government wound people up"},{"startTime":1094.38,"endTime":1095.93,"body":"with substance, too."},{"startTime":1095.93,"endTime":1097.63,"body":"The Internal Market Bill,"},{"startTime":1097.63,"endTime":1099.31,"body":"which you've probably"},{"startTime":1097.63,"endTime":1099.31,"body":"heard of at some point,"},{"startTime":1099.31,"endTime":1102.77,"body":"is a bill that was put forward"},{"startTime":1099.31,"endTime":1102.77,"body":"by the British government"},{"startTime":1102.77,"endTime":1107.77,"body":"to prevent Brexit leading"},{"startTime":1102.77,"endTime":1107.77,"body":"to the creation of the need"},{"startTime":1107.84,"endTime":1111.15,"body":"for regulatory checks within"},{"startTime":1107.84,"endTime":1111.15,"body":"the United Kingdom itself."},{"startTime":1111.15,"endTime":1113.19,"body":"Briefly put, if the Scots"},{"startTime":1113.19,"endTime":1115.34,"body":"and the English now have"},{"startTime":1113.19,"endTime":1115.34,"body":"different regulations"},{"startTime":1115.34,"endTime":1117.33,"body":"for agricultural products,"},{"startTime":1117.33,"endTime":1118.91,"body":"because we're not in the single market"},{"startTime":1118.91,"endTime":1121.93,"body":"and under that blanket of EU laws anymore,"},{"startTime":1121.93,"endTime":1124.65,"body":"someone's going to have"},{"startTime":1121.93,"endTime":1124.65,"body":"to check those products."},{"startTime":1124.65,"endTime":1127.66,"body":"So the Internal Market"},{"startTime":1124.65,"endTime":1127.66,"body":"Bill was a way of saying,"},{"startTime":1127.66,"endTime":1129.6,"body":"actually, if any of the"},{"startTime":1127.66,"endTime":1129.6,"body":"devolved governments"},{"startTime":1129.6,"endTime":1131.14,"body":"accept something it's fine to sell it"},{"startTime":1131.14,"endTime":1132.84,"body":"anywhere in the United"},{"startTime":1131.14,"endTime":1132.84,"body":"Kingdom, regardless."},{"startTime":1132.84,"endTime":1135.82,"body":"So you can't keep English goods"},{"startTime":1132.84,"endTime":1135.82,"body":"out of the Scottish market."},{"startTime":1135.82,"endTime":1137.18,"body":"You might say you've got higher standards,"},{"startTime":1137.18,"endTime":1138.37,"body":"but it doesn't matter."},{"startTime":1138.37,"endTime":1141.5,"body":"Politically, this led to"},{"startTime":1138.37,"endTime":1141.5,"body":"push back from the Scots"},{"startTime":1141.5,"endTime":1143.73,"body":"and the Welch, both of their assemblies"},{"startTime":1143.73,"endTime":1146.43,"body":"refused to give consent to"},{"startTime":1143.73,"endTime":1146.43,"body":"the Internal Market Bill"},{"startTime":1146.43,"endTime":1151.15,"body":"because they said it was a"},{"startTime":1146.43,"endTime":1151.15,"body":"power grab by Westminster,"},{"startTime":1151.15,"endTime":1152.81,"body":"taking away from them powers"},{"startTime":1152.81,"endTime":1155.98,"body":"that had previously been devolved to them."},{"startTime":1155.98,"endTime":1159.85,"body":"Now, this goes by the"},{"startTime":1155.98,"endTime":1159.85,"body":"name of muscular unionism."},{"startTime":1159.85,"endTime":1161.78,"body":"The UK government basically saying,"},{"startTime":1161.78,"endTime":1163.13,"body":"okay, we're going to take charge of this"},{"startTime":1163.13,"endTime":1164.28,"body":"and everyone will eventually love us"},{"startTime":1164.28,"endTime":1166.16,"body":"'cause we're going to be great right."},{"startTime":1166.16,"endTime":1171.14,"body":"Now what you see in that,"},{"startTime":1171.14,"endTime":1174.65,"body":"the dark blue line, is support"},{"startTime":1171.14,"endTime":1174.65,"body":"for independence in Scotland,"},{"startTime":1174.65,"endTime":1177.75,"body":"it's for a while at"},{"startTime":1174.65,"endTime":1177.75,"body":"least you get an increase"},{"startTime":1177.75,"endTime":1180.38,"body":"in support for independence in Scotland."},{"startTime":1180.38,"endTime":1184.35,"body":"What's happening in Scottish"},{"startTime":1180.38,"endTime":1184.35,"body":"politics, briefly, is this."},{"startTime":1184.35,"endTime":1188.84,"body":"You've had a process"},{"startTime":1184.35,"endTime":1188.84,"body":"whereby remain supporters,"},{"startTime":1188.84,"endTime":1192.54,"body":"who might have voted against"},{"startTime":1188.84,"endTime":1192.54,"body":"independence in 2014,"},{"startTime":1192.54,"endTime":1194.957,"body":"have become so enraged"},{"startTime":1192.54,"endTime":1194.957,"body":"by the process of Brexit"},{"startTime":1194.957,"endTime":1197.57,"body":"and the way that the UK"},{"startTime":1194.957,"endTime":1197.57,"body":"government has behaved"},{"startTime":1197.57,"endTime":1200.28,"body":"that they've switched to"},{"startTime":1197.57,"endTime":1200.28,"body":"independent supporters."},{"startTime":1200.28,"endTime":1203.68,"body":"The reason why that gap is"},{"startTime":1200.28,"endTime":1203.68,"body":"closing, to a significant extent,"},{"startTime":1203.68,"endTime":1206.56,"body":"is because the opposite"},{"startTime":1203.68,"endTime":1206.56,"body":"process has also happened."},{"startTime":1206.56,"endTime":1209.29,"body":"That is to say, leave backers in Scotland."},{"startTime":1209.29,"endTime":1211.69,"body":"And I mean it's easy to say"},{"startTime":1209.29,"endTime":1211.69,"body":"the Scots are pro-remain,"},{"startTime":1211.69,"endTime":1216.27,"body":"but virtually precisely the"},{"startTime":1211.69,"endTime":1216.27,"body":"same proportion of SMP voters"},{"startTime":1216.27,"endTime":1219.83,"body":"voted leave, as the same as"},{"startTime":1216.27,"endTime":1219.83,"body":"the proportion of Labour voters"},{"startTime":1219.83,"endTime":1220.74,"body":"who voted leave."},{"startTime":1220.74,"endTime":1223.07,"body":"So there is a leave community there."},{"startTime":1223.07,"endTime":1226.23,"body":"And what happens is a number"},{"startTime":1223.07,"endTime":1226.23,"body":"of people who backed leave"},{"startTime":1226.23,"endTime":1230.4,"body":"in the EU Referendum"},{"startTime":1226.23,"endTime":1230.4,"body":"have become so enraged"},{"startTime":1230.4,"endTime":1232.017,"body":"by the way in which Scottish independence"},{"startTime":1232.017,"endTime":1234.64,"body":"and EU membership have become twins,"},{"startTime":1234.64,"endTime":1235.58,"body":"that they've switched sides"},{"startTime":1235.58,"endTime":1237.35,"body":"in the Scottish independence debate."},{"startTime":1237.35,"endTime":1238.29,"body":"So this is where we are."},{"startTime":1238.29,"endTime":1239.85,"body":"Now, we shouldn't underestimate this,"},{"startTime":1239.85,"endTime":1241.01,"body":"because if you think back to"},{"startTime":1241.01,"endTime":1244.26,"body":"when the Scottish"},{"startTime":1241.01,"endTime":1244.26,"body":"Referendum campaign started,"},{"startTime":1244.26,"endTime":1246.81,"body":"independence was at 25%."},{"startTime":1246.81,"endTime":1250.01,"body":"So we've come a long, long way since 2012."},{"startTime":1250.01,"endTime":1252.76,"body":"But there still isn't a"},{"startTime":1250.01,"endTime":1252.76,"body":"settled majority in Scotland"},{"startTime":1252.76,"endTime":1255.81,"body":"that is clear in favor of independence."},{"startTime":1255.81,"endTime":1257.17,"body":"And one of the things to bear in mind"},{"startTime":1257.17,"endTime":1258.42,"body":"when thinking about Scotland,"},{"startTime":1258.42,"endTime":1260.86,"body":"which will be one of the"},{"startTime":1258.42,"endTime":1260.86,"body":"big issues for the future,"},{"startTime":1260.86,"endTime":1263.7,"body":"is the fact that Brexit"},{"startTime":1260.86,"endTime":1263.7,"body":"actually, in some ways,"},{"startTime":1263.7,"endTime":1266.86,"body":"makes the task of the SMP even harder."},{"startTime":1266.86,"endTime":1267.693,"body":"Why?"},{"startTime":1267.693,"endTime":1271.177,"body":"Because since the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":1267.693,"endTime":1271.177,"body":"has left the single market"},{"startTime":1271.177,"endTime":1275.65,"body":"and the customs union, if"},{"startTime":1271.177,"endTime":1275.65,"body":"Scotland becomes independent"},{"startTime":1275.65,"endTime":1280.07,"body":"and votes to join the"},{"startTime":1275.65,"endTime":1280.07,"body":"European Union there will,"},{"startTime":1280.07,"endTime":1283.3,"body":"wait for it, have to be a border"},{"startTime":1283.3,"endTime":1284.546,"body":"between Scotland and England."},{"startTime":1284.546,"endTime":1285.81,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1285.81,"endTime":1288.72,"body":"We will have the same debate"},{"startTime":1285.81,"endTime":1288.72,"body":"we've had about the Protocol"},{"startTime":1288.72,"endTime":1290.08,"body":"and about Northern Ireland again,"},{"startTime":1290.08,"endTime":1293.02,"body":"but about that border"},{"startTime":1290.08,"endTime":1293.02,"body":"rather than the other one."},{"startTime":1293.02,"endTime":1294.75,"body":"And I suspect that at some level,"},{"startTime":1294.75,"endTime":1297.44,"body":"that's quite a hard sell politically,"},{"startTime":1297.44,"endTime":1298.93,"body":"to tell people that actually stuff"},{"startTime":1298.93,"endTime":1302.482,"body":"is going to have to be checked"},{"startTime":1298.93,"endTime":1302.482,"body":"on the M6 or wherever it is."},{"startTime":1302.482,"endTime":1303.315,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1303.315,"endTime":1305.49,"body":"Well, precisely, I mean it's"},{"startTime":1303.315,"endTime":1305.49,"body":"sort of kind of unthinkable."},{"startTime":1305.49,"endTime":1309.36,"body":"But that is the challenge"},{"startTime":1305.49,"endTime":1309.36,"body":"facing the SMP at the moment,"},{"startTime":1309.36,"endTime":1311.69,"body":"in the event that we have"},{"startTime":1309.36,"endTime":1311.69,"body":"a referendum campaign,"},{"startTime":1311.69,"endTime":1315.81,"body":"is that Brexit, if you like,"},{"startTime":1311.69,"endTime":1315.81,"body":"has made the emotional case"},{"startTime":1315.81,"endTime":1317.93,"body":"for independence stronger"},{"startTime":1315.81,"endTime":1317.93,"body":"amongst some Scots,"},{"startTime":1317.93,"endTime":1320.22,"body":"because it's like bloody English"},{"startTime":1320.22,"endTime":1322.64,"body":"have dragged us out of"},{"startTime":1320.22,"endTime":1322.64,"body":"Europe against our will."},{"startTime":1322.64,"endTime":1326.61,"body":"But it's made the practical"},{"startTime":1322.64,"endTime":1326.61,"body":"case slightly more complicated."},{"startTime":1326.61,"endTime":1328.08,"body":"Scottish independence would've been"},{"startTime":1328.08,"endTime":1331.44,"body":"far, far easier if both"},{"startTime":1328.08,"endTime":1331.44,"body":"England and Scotland"},{"startTime":1331.44,"endTime":1334.06,"body":"were members of the single"},{"startTime":1331.44,"endTime":1334.06,"body":"market and the customs union."},{"startTime":1334.06,"endTime":1338.58,"body":"Scotland's not the only place"},{"startTime":1334.06,"endTime":1338.58,"body":"where attitudes have shifted."},{"startTime":1338.58,"endTime":1341.43,"body":"One of the closely guarded"},{"startTime":1338.58,"endTime":1341.43,"body":"secrets about Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":1341.43,"endTime":1343.61,"body":"where if you look at the bottom two lines,"},{"startTime":1343.61,"endTime":1347.39,"body":"a majority of both Labour"},{"startTime":1343.61,"endTime":1347.39,"body":"and Conservative MPs"},{"startTime":1347.39,"endTime":1350.49,"body":"do not think that the"},{"startTime":1347.39,"endTime":1350.49,"body":"Northern Ireland protocol"},{"startTime":1350.49,"endTime":1352.66,"body":"is good for Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":1352.66,"endTime":1354.157,"body":"David Frost was fond of saying that,"},{"startTime":1354.157,"endTime":1356.54,"body":"\"The Northern Ireland"},{"startTime":1354.157,"endTime":1356.54,"body":"Protocol is causing a crisis"},{"startTime":1356.54,"endTime":1357.373,"body":"in Northern Ireland.\""},{"startTime":1357.373,"endTime":1358.61,"body":"But actually if you look at the top line,"},{"startTime":1358.61,"endTime":1360.47,"body":"what you'll find is a majority of people"},{"startTime":1360.47,"endTime":1362.39,"body":"in Northern Ireland do think"},{"startTime":1362.39,"endTime":1363.54,"body":"that the Northern Ireland Protocol"},{"startTime":1363.54,"endTime":1364.74,"body":"is a good thing for Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":1364.74,"endTime":1366.68,"body":"So the Northern Irish"},{"startTime":1364.74,"endTime":1366.68,"body":"are getting on with it"},{"startTime":1366.68,"endTime":1369.01,"body":"and their traders are"},{"startTime":1366.68,"endTime":1369.01,"body":"adapting to the Protocol."},{"startTime":1369.01,"endTime":1372.19,"body":"You're finding a massive"},{"startTime":1369.01,"endTime":1372.19,"body":"increase in north-south trade"},{"startTime":1372.19,"endTime":1374.35,"body":"at the expense of east-west trade, okay."},{"startTime":1374.35,"endTime":1375.5,"body":"And it's not rocket science is it?"},{"startTime":1375.5,"endTime":1377.89,"body":"If you make east-west trade more difficult"},{"startTime":1377.89,"endTime":1380.76,"body":"and you keep north-south trade the same,"},{"startTime":1380.76,"endTime":1381.593,"body":"what's going to happen?"},{"startTime":1381.593,"endTime":1383.41,"body":"You don't have to be a trained"},{"startTime":1381.593,"endTime":1383.41,"body":"economist to figure out"},{"startTime":1383.41,"endTime":1385.71,"body":"that you're going to get"},{"startTime":1383.41,"endTime":1385.71,"body":"some trade diversion, okay."},{"startTime":1385.71,"endTime":1389.65,"body":"So on the one hand in"},{"startTime":1385.71,"endTime":1389.65,"body":"Northern Ireland itself,"},{"startTime":1389.65,"endTime":1392.63,"body":"there's a relatively high"},{"startTime":1389.65,"endTime":1392.63,"body":"level of satisfaction"},{"startTime":1392.63,"endTime":1394.37,"body":"with the situation around the Protocol."},{"startTime":1394.37,"endTime":1398.033,"body":"One possible reason for that is this."},{"startTime":1398.94,"endTime":1400.89,"body":"These were the warning levels"},{"startTime":1400.89,"endTime":1404.23,"body":"around fuel supplies back"},{"startTime":1400.89,"endTime":1404.23,"body":"in September, October,"},{"startTime":1404.23,"endTime":1407.13,"body":"whereas you remember, we"},{"startTime":1404.23,"endTime":1407.13,"body":"were running out of petrol."},{"startTime":1407.13,"endTime":1408.59,"body":"Only part of the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":1408.59,"endTime":1411.47,"body":"that at no point was running out of petrol"},{"startTime":1411.47,"endTime":1412.63,"body":"was Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":1412.63,"endTime":1416.173,"body":"Northern Ireland is in"},{"startTime":1412.63,"endTime":1416.173,"body":"the single market, okay."},{"startTime":1419.17,"endTime":1421.44,"body":"One of the interesting"},{"startTime":1419.17,"endTime":1421.44,"body":"questions going forward,"},{"startTime":1421.44,"endTime":1424.14,"body":"actually, is one of the"},{"startTime":1421.44,"endTime":1424.14,"body":"ways it might be possible"},{"startTime":1424.14,"endTime":1427.34,"body":"to ascertain what the impact"},{"startTime":1424.14,"endTime":1427.34,"body":"of Brexit on the UK economy"},{"startTime":1427.34,"endTime":1429.6,"body":"has been or on the GB economy has been,"},{"startTime":1429.6,"endTime":1431.02,"body":"is to compare the GB economy"},{"startTime":1431.02,"endTime":1432.34,"body":"with the Northern Ireland economy."},{"startTime":1432.34,"endTime":1434.68,"body":"Because the only"},{"startTime":1432.34,"endTime":1434.68,"body":"difference between the two"},{"startTime":1434.68,"endTime":1436.95,"body":"is that Northern Ireland remains"},{"startTime":1434.68,"endTime":1436.95,"body":"within the single market,"},{"startTime":1436.95,"endTime":1439.08,"body":"whereas GB does not."},{"startTime":1439.08,"endTime":1441.38,"body":"But all of this has had"},{"startTime":1439.08,"endTime":1441.38,"body":"broader consequences"},{"startTime":1441.38,"endTime":1446.38,"body":"because it means there's"},{"startTime":1441.38,"endTime":1446.38,"body":"been a hemorrhaging of trust"},{"startTime":1446.39,"endTime":1450.44,"body":"in the UK government in"},{"startTime":1446.39,"endTime":1450.44,"body":"Northern Ireland, okay."},{"startTime":1450.44,"endTime":1451.7,"body":"And this will have implications,"},{"startTime":1451.7,"endTime":1453.4,"body":"I'm not saying there's going"},{"startTime":1451.7,"endTime":1453.4,"body":"to be a border poll tomorrow."},{"startTime":1453.4,"endTime":1454.233,"body":"I'm not even saying there's going to be"},{"startTime":1454.233,"endTime":1455.88,"body":"a border poll, definitely."},{"startTime":1455.88,"endTime":1458.94,"body":"But as in so many other parts of our life,"},{"startTime":1458.94,"endTime":1460.49,"body":"Brexit has shaken things up."},{"startTime":1460.49,"endTime":1463.33,"body":"It's shaken the kaleidoscope"},{"startTime":1460.49,"endTime":1463.33,"body":"of our politics, if you like."},{"startTime":1463.33,"endTime":1464.22,"body":"And we don't yet know"},{"startTime":1464.22,"endTime":1466.31,"body":"where those pieces are going to settle,"},{"startTime":1466.31,"endTime":1468.77,"body":"but those pieces have been disturbed."},{"startTime":1468.77,"endTime":1472.09,"body":"And what that means is, at"},{"startTime":1468.77,"endTime":1472.09,"body":"best, a period of uncertainty."},{"startTime":1472.09,"endTime":1474.82,"body":"Pre-2016, I never thought"},{"startTime":1472.09,"endTime":1474.82,"body":"I'd stand up for pre-2016."},{"startTime":1474.82,"endTime":1475.653,"body":"I never thought I'd stand here."},{"startTime":1475.653,"endTime":1476.79,"body":"But I never thought I'd stand here"},{"startTime":1476.79,"endTime":1479.83,"body":"and say, at the moment"},{"startTime":1476.79,"endTime":1479.83,"body":"it looks like Sinn Fein"},{"startTime":1479.83,"endTime":1481.21,"body":"will be the biggest party"},{"startTime":1481.21,"endTime":1484.06,"body":"after the Stormont elections in May."},{"startTime":1484.06,"endTime":1485.92,"body":"And that has massive implications"},{"startTime":1485.92,"endTime":1488.863,"body":"for the future of our"},{"startTime":1485.92,"endTime":1488.863,"body":"union for obvious reasons."},{"startTime":1490.17,"endTime":1492.53,"body":"And the final thing about our constitution"},{"startTime":1492.53,"endTime":1494.02,"body":"that Brexit has made us think about,"},{"startTime":1494.02,"endTime":1496.22,"body":"you remember all these"},{"startTime":1494.02,"endTime":1496.22,"body":"various newspaper headlines"},{"startTime":1496.22,"endTime":1498.83,"body":"after the various court cases we've had,"},{"startTime":1498.83,"endTime":1501.47,"body":"is the relationship"},{"startTime":1498.83,"endTime":1501.47,"body":"between politics and law."},{"startTime":1501.47,"endTime":1503.9,"body":"Because one of the things"},{"startTime":1501.47,"endTime":1503.9,"body":"the European Union did"},{"startTime":1503.9,"endTime":1506.04,"body":"that we didn't really"},{"startTime":1503.9,"endTime":1506.04,"body":"think about at the time"},{"startTime":1506.04,"endTime":1508.7,"body":"was it provided us with"},{"startTime":1506.04,"endTime":1508.7,"body":"a form, if you like,"},{"startTime":1508.7,"endTime":1511.35,"body":"of quasi-constitutional law."},{"startTime":1511.35,"endTime":1513.653,"body":"We don't have a codified"},{"startTime":1511.35,"endTime":1513.653,"body":"written constitution."},{"startTime":1514.49,"endTime":1516.35,"body":"So we don't have what other countries have"},{"startTime":1516.35,"endTime":1519.4,"body":"where you have a document that"},{"startTime":1516.35,"endTime":1519.4,"body":"says here are certain rights"},{"startTime":1519.4,"endTime":1521.25,"body":"and those rights can't be tampered with"},{"startTime":1521.25,"endTime":1522.99,"body":"by a simple majority in Parliament,"},{"startTime":1522.99,"endTime":1525.73,"body":"because they're constitutional rights."},{"startTime":1525.73,"endTime":1528.68,"body":"You got that here as a"},{"startTime":1525.73,"endTime":1528.68,"body":"member of the European Union,"},{"startTime":1528.68,"endTime":1531.16,"body":"because some rights,"},{"startTime":1528.68,"endTime":1531.16,"body":"environmental standards,"},{"startTime":1531.16,"endTime":1535.15,"body":"workers' rights, were enshrined in EU law."},{"startTime":1535.15,"endTime":1537.57,"body":"And what that meant was a"},{"startTime":1535.15,"endTime":1537.57,"body":"simple vote in Westminster"},{"startTime":1537.57,"endTime":1538.98,"body":"couldn't overturn them."},{"startTime":1538.98,"endTime":1541.27,"body":"You needed to have a qualified"},{"startTime":1538.98,"endTime":1541.27,"body":"majority of member states"},{"startTime":1541.27,"endTime":1542.103,"body":"to overturn them."},{"startTime":1542.103,"endTime":1544.01,"body":"So certain things were in enshrined."},{"startTime":1544.01,"endTime":1547.07,"body":"All of a sudden now we've"},{"startTime":1544.01,"endTime":1547.07,"body":"left the European Union,"},{"startTime":1547.07,"endTime":1549.35,"body":"nothing is enshrined, okay."},{"startTime":1549.35,"endTime":1552.97,"body":"Now, there is scope and the"},{"startTime":1549.35,"endTime":1552.97,"body":"need for a sensible debate"},{"startTime":1552.97,"endTime":1556.33,"body":"about whether, and if so"},{"startTime":1552.97,"endTime":1556.33,"body":"why, certain areas of life,"},{"startTime":1556.33,"endTime":1558.66,"body":"whether it's human rights"},{"startTime":1556.33,"endTime":1558.66,"body":"or environmental standards"},{"startTime":1558.66,"endTime":1561.13,"body":"or workers' rights, should"},{"startTime":1558.66,"endTime":1561.13,"body":"be beyond the reach of"},{"startTime":1561.13,"endTime":1562.98,"body":"our democratically"},{"startTime":1561.13,"endTime":1562.98,"body":"elected representatives."},{"startTime":1562.98,"endTime":1566.76,"body":"It's not for me, obvious, why"},{"startTime":1562.98,"endTime":1566.76,"body":"certain bits of public policy"},{"startTime":1566.76,"endTime":1569.41,"body":"shouldn't be amended by a"},{"startTime":1566.76,"endTime":1569.41,"body":"simple majority in Parliament,"},{"startTime":1569.41,"endTime":1570.84,"body":"whereas others should."},{"startTime":1570.84,"endTime":1573.56,"body":"But it is something we have"},{"startTime":1570.84,"endTime":1573.56,"body":"to start thinking about"},{"startTime":1573.56,"endTime":1575.5,"body":"because absent the European Union,"},{"startTime":1575.5,"endTime":1580.24,"body":"we simply do not have the"},{"startTime":1575.5,"endTime":1580.24,"body":"constitutional wherewithal to say,"},{"startTime":1580.24,"endTime":1582.82,"body":"here are certain things"},{"startTime":1580.24,"endTime":1582.82,"body":"we really shouldn't touch."},{"startTime":1582.82,"endTime":1584.76,"body":"Or here are certain things,"},{"startTime":1582.82,"endTime":1584.76,"body":"if we're going to touch them,"},{"startTime":1584.76,"endTime":1587.21,"body":"we need bigger majorities"},{"startTime":1584.76,"endTime":1587.21,"body":"or different majorities"},{"startTime":1587.21,"endTime":1588.66,"body":"or a different process."},{"startTime":1588.66,"endTime":1592.46,"body":"At the moment, Parliament"},{"startTime":1588.66,"endTime":1592.46,"body":"can change any law it wants"},{"startTime":1592.46,"endTime":1595.14,"body":"by virtue of a simple majority"},{"startTime":1595.14,"endTime":1599.8,"body":"and that has fundamentally"},{"startTime":1595.14,"endTime":1599.8,"body":"changed the nature of our system,"},{"startTime":1599.8,"endTime":1601.92,"body":"the nature of the way we're governed"},{"startTime":1601.92,"endTime":1603.39,"body":"and that has profound implications."},{"startTime":1603.39,"endTime":1604.501,"body":"And it worries me sometimes that,"},{"startTime":1604.501,"endTime":1606.19,"body":"I mean so much has happened"},{"startTime":1606.19,"endTime":1609.28,"body":"as I hope you're getting the"},{"startTime":1606.19,"endTime":1609.28,"body":"idea about because of Brexit,"},{"startTime":1609.28,"endTime":1611.63,"body":"that we haven't really"},{"startTime":1609.28,"endTime":1611.63,"body":"begun to think through"},{"startTime":1611.63,"endTime":1616.233,"body":"or debate so many important"},{"startTime":1611.63,"endTime":1616.233,"body":"things that we need to rethink."},{"startTime":1617.66,"endTime":1619.173,"body":"So that is the constitution."},{"startTime":1624.15,"endTime":1627.55,"body":"Now, trade wasn't meant to be an issue."},{"startTime":1627.55,"endTime":1629.967,"body":"I'll let you soak that up,"},{"startTime":1627.55,"endTime":1629.967,"body":"while I have a quick drink."},{"startTime":1629.967,"endTime":1633.384,"body":"(audience members laugh)"},{"startTime":1639.02,"endTime":1642.083,"body":"As it turns out, that's not what happened."},{"startTime":1647.55,"endTime":1650.295,"body":"Matt is my go-to, 'cause he"},{"startTime":1647.55,"endTime":1650.295,"body":"tends to be very, very funny."},{"startTime":1650.295,"endTime":1653.128,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1654.69,"endTime":1657.3,"body":"We've been on a learning process,"},{"startTime":1657.3,"endTime":1659.81,"body":"what on \"The X Factor\""},{"startTime":1657.3,"endTime":1659.81,"body":"they would call a journey"},{"startTime":1659.81,"endTime":1663.89,"body":"when it comes to figuring out"},{"startTime":1659.81,"endTime":1663.89,"body":"our relationship with trade"},{"startTime":1663.89,"endTime":1666.39,"body":"and what trade means to"},{"startTime":1663.89,"endTime":1666.39,"body":"us and it's not just us."},{"startTime":1666.39,"endTime":1669.027,"body":"I remember back in 2017 or 2018,"},{"startTime":1669.027,"endTime":1671.137,"body":"and one of the things about"},{"startTime":1669.027,"endTime":1671.137,"body":"COVID is my sense of time"},{"startTime":1671.137,"endTime":1672.79,"body":"has completely gone."},{"startTime":1672.79,"endTime":1675.317,"body":"2017 or 2018, I was at"},{"startTime":1672.79,"endTime":1675.317,"body":"a meeting at the CBI"},{"startTime":1676.87,"endTime":1680.08,"body":"where someone said, \"All our"},{"startTime":1676.87,"endTime":1680.08,"body":"CEOs are suddenly realizing"},{"startTime":1680.08,"endTime":1682.57,"body":"that their supply chains"},{"startTime":1680.08,"endTime":1682.57,"body":"are international.\""},{"startTime":1682.57,"endTime":1683.97,"body":"You know they'd never"},{"startTime":1682.57,"endTime":1683.97,"body":"realized before that,"},{"startTime":1683.97,"endTime":1686.67,"body":"actually, the key widget for their product"},{"startTime":1686.67,"endTime":1688.41,"body":"comes from Belgium."},{"startTime":1688.41,"endTime":1690.45,"body":"And there was no need to know that before,"},{"startTime":1690.45,"endTime":1691.283,"body":"because it didn't matter"},{"startTime":1691.283,"endTime":1693.07,"body":"because the point of the single"},{"startTime":1691.283,"endTime":1693.07,"body":"market and the customs union"},{"startTime":1693.07,"endTime":1694.52,"body":"was that shouldn't matter."},{"startTime":1694.52,"endTime":1695.91,"body":"But of course, all of a sudden it's like,"},{"startTime":1695.91,"endTime":1698.13,"body":"oh my God, where do we get widgets from"},{"startTime":1698.13,"endTime":1699.95,"body":"or where do we sell widgets to?"},{"startTime":1699.95,"endTime":1702.63,"body":"So all of us I think"},{"startTime":1699.95,"endTime":1702.63,"body":"or one of the reasons,"},{"startTime":1702.63,"endTime":1706.13,"body":"actually, why our reaction to COVID"},{"startTime":1706.13,"endTime":1709.19,"body":"was pretty good economically"},{"startTime":1706.13,"endTime":1709.19,"body":"and in terms of supply chains,"},{"startTime":1709.19,"endTime":1712.14,"body":"was precisely because"},{"startTime":1709.19,"endTime":1712.14,"body":"companies had got to grips"},{"startTime":1712.14,"endTime":1713.98,"body":"with the nature of their supply chains"},{"startTime":1713.98,"endTime":1716.45,"body":"when they were wrestling with"},{"startTime":1713.98,"endTime":1716.45,"body":"the implications of Brexit."},{"startTime":1716.45,"endTime":1719.08,"body":"So there's a curious"},{"startTime":1716.45,"endTime":1719.08,"body":"unintended consequence for you."},{"startTime":1719.08,"endTime":1722.27,"body":"But so we've all had to learn about trade,"},{"startTime":1722.27,"endTime":1723.6,"body":"about what trade means"},{"startTime":1723.6,"endTime":1725.94,"body":"and about what the European"},{"startTime":1723.6,"endTime":1725.94,"body":"Union meant for trade."},{"startTime":1725.94,"endTime":1728.39,"body":"So let's think a little bit about"},{"startTime":1728.39,"endTime":1730.12,"body":"what the economics of Brexit looked like"},{"startTime":1730.12,"endTime":1734.03,"body":"and how the changes in"},{"startTime":1730.12,"endTime":1734.03,"body":"trade that Brexit implies"},{"startTime":1734.03,"endTime":1735.363,"body":"have impacted on us."},{"startTime":1736.48,"endTime":1739.03,"body":"This is some work done by a"},{"startTime":1736.48,"endTime":1739.03,"body":"guy called John Springford"},{"startTime":1739.03,"endTime":1741.41,"body":"at the Center for European Reform."},{"startTime":1741.41,"endTime":1744.74,"body":"And what this work consists of is"},{"startTime":1744.74,"endTime":1747.7,"body":"the red line is what is"},{"startTime":1744.74,"endTime":1747.7,"body":"called a doppelganger."},{"startTime":1747.7,"endTime":1751.53,"body":"You take a basket of"},{"startTime":1747.7,"endTime":1751.53,"body":"currencies that historically,"},{"startTime":1751.53,"endTime":1754.07,"body":"so look to the left,"},{"startTime":1751.53,"endTime":1754.07,"body":"have basically performed"},{"startTime":1754.07,"endTime":1755.88,"body":"like the UK economy has performed"},{"startTime":1757.148,"endTime":1760.86,"body":"and you compare how"},{"startTime":1757.148,"endTime":1760.86,"body":"the UK economy performs"},{"startTime":1760.86,"endTime":1763.69,"body":"against that basket of currencies."},{"startTime":1763.69,"endTime":1768.69,"body":"So the gap at the end is"},{"startTime":1763.69,"endTime":1768.69,"body":"what John has figured out is"},{"startTime":1768.99,"endTime":1772.52,"body":"the difference between where we are now"},{"startTime":1772.52,"endTime":1774.75,"body":"and where we would've been had we remained"},{"startTime":1774.75,"endTime":1777.69,"body":"within the single market"},{"startTime":1774.75,"endTime":1777.69,"body":"and the customs union."},{"startTime":1777.69,"endTime":1779.9,"body":"Some work by colleagues of"},{"startTime":1777.69,"endTime":1779.9,"body":"mine that you can find on"},{"startTime":1779.9,"endTime":1782.62,"body":"the UK In A Changing"},{"startTime":1779.9,"endTime":1782.62,"body":"Europe website this week"},{"startTime":1782.62,"endTime":1787.62,"body":"has shown the GDP by"},{"startTime":1782.62,"endTime":1787.62,"body":"2019 was about 2% lower"},{"startTime":1789.73,"endTime":1792.37,"body":"than we would've expected"},{"startTime":1789.73,"endTime":1792.37,"body":"it to be had the UK stayed"},{"startTime":1792.37,"endTime":1793.8,"body":"in the single market"},{"startTime":1792.37,"endTime":1793.8,"body":"and the customs union."},{"startTime":1793.8,"endTime":1796.34,"body":"The rub there is in 2019,"},{"startTime":1796.34,"endTime":1799.88,"body":"the UK was still in the single"},{"startTime":1796.34,"endTime":1799.88,"body":"market and the customs union."},{"startTime":1799.88,"endTime":1802.82,"body":"So that 2% of GDP was caused by factors"},{"startTime":1802.82,"endTime":1805.933,"body":"such as the depreciation of the pound."},{"startTime":1806.93,"endTime":1809.1,"body":"Because gallingly, it transpires"},{"startTime":1809.1,"endTime":1810.8,"body":"that the depreciation of the pound"},{"startTime":1812.81,"endTime":1814.67,"body":"made exports more expensive,"},{"startTime":1814.67,"endTime":1818.03,"body":"but didn't have a positive"},{"startTime":1814.67,"endTime":1818.03,"body":"impact on imports."},{"startTime":1818.03,"endTime":1819.91,"body":"In parentheses, one of the reasons why"},{"startTime":1819.91,"endTime":1822.63,"body":"there isn't that simple"},{"startTime":1819.91,"endTime":1822.63,"body":"relationship between exchange rate"},{"startTime":1822.63,"endTime":1826.45,"body":"and exports and imports is"},{"startTime":1822.63,"endTime":1826.45,"body":"many of the things we export"},{"startTime":1826.45,"endTime":1830.31,"body":"are made up of parts that we import, okay."},{"startTime":1830.31,"endTime":1832.53,"body":"So the bits that we"},{"startTime":1830.31,"endTime":1832.53,"body":"import to make the stuff"},{"startTime":1832.53,"endTime":1834.38,"body":"that we export have become more expensive."},{"startTime":1834.38,"endTime":1835.39,"body":"So actually, you're not going to get"},{"startTime":1835.39,"endTime":1838.59,"body":"that benefit of those"},{"startTime":1835.39,"endTime":1838.59,"body":"changing exchange rates."},{"startTime":1838.59,"endTime":1839.8,"body":"But the point is,"},{"startTime":1839.8,"endTime":1842.47,"body":"as far as a lot of"},{"startTime":1839.8,"endTime":1842.47,"body":"economists are concerned,"},{"startTime":1842.47,"endTime":1844.087,"body":"even before we'd left the single market"},{"startTime":1844.087,"endTime":1847.34,"body":"and the customs union, Brexit"},{"startTime":1844.087,"endTime":1847.34,"body":"was having a negative impact."},{"startTime":1847.34,"endTime":1849.2,"body":"The other obvious reason"},{"startTime":1847.34,"endTime":1849.2,"body":"why Brexit was having"},{"startTime":1849.2,"endTime":1852.01,"body":"a negative impact was"},{"startTime":1849.2,"endTime":1852.01,"body":"while there was uncertainty"},{"startTime":1852.01,"endTime":1855.88,"body":"firms were, understandably"},{"startTime":1852.01,"endTime":1855.88,"body":"enough, very reluctant"},{"startTime":1855.88,"endTime":1859.26,"body":"to invest huge amounts of"},{"startTime":1855.88,"endTime":1859.26,"body":"money in the UK economy."},{"startTime":1859.26,"endTime":1863.25,"body":"Because, actually, the"},{"startTime":1859.26,"endTime":1863.25,"body":"terms via which we trade"},{"startTime":1863.25,"endTime":1866.31,"body":"with our nearest and largest"},{"startTime":1863.25,"endTime":1866.31,"body":"trading partner are something"},{"startTime":1866.31,"endTime":1868.93,"body":"that most firms are quite"},{"startTime":1866.31,"endTime":1868.93,"body":"interested in knowing"},{"startTime":1868.93,"endTime":1871.28,"body":"before they commit millions of pounds"},{"startTime":1871.28,"endTime":1872.94,"body":"to investment in plant."},{"startTime":1872.94,"endTime":1874.24,"body":"So that's the first thing."},{"startTime":1876.31,"endTime":1878.72,"body":"In terms of the future,"},{"startTime":1878.72,"endTime":1882.14,"body":"this was our forecast of the"},{"startTime":1878.72,"endTime":1882.14,"body":"impact of the Brexit deal"},{"startTime":1882.14,"endTime":1884.113,"body":"that Boris Johnson signed."},{"startTime":1885.27,"endTime":1886.313,"body":"The numbers are big,"},{"startTime":1887.51,"endTime":1889.06,"body":"but the numbers are big"},{"startTime":1887.51,"endTime":1889.06,"body":"for a simple reason."},{"startTime":1889.06,"endTime":1890.42,"body":"I'll come back to some more explanation"},{"startTime":1890.42,"endTime":1891.51,"body":"about those numbers in a minute,"},{"startTime":1891.51,"endTime":1895.13,"body":"but basically Brexit is many things,"},{"startTime":1895.13,"endTime":1896.8,"body":"but one of the things Brexit is,"},{"startTime":1896.8,"endTime":1899.31,"body":"is a process of making trading"},{"startTime":1899.31,"endTime":1902.15,"body":"with the European Union slower,"},{"startTime":1902.15,"endTime":1904.523,"body":"more difficult and more expensive."},{"startTime":1905.36,"endTime":1907.41,"body":"And as I said, in the"},{"startTime":1905.36,"endTime":1907.41,"body":"case of the east-west"},{"startTime":1907.41,"endTime":1908.83,"body":"and north-south borders"},{"startTime":1907.41,"endTime":1908.83,"body":"in Northern Ireland,"},{"startTime":1908.83,"endTime":1912.14,"body":"if trade becomes harder,"},{"startTime":1908.83,"endTime":1912.14,"body":"there's going to be less of it."},{"startTime":1912.14,"endTime":1916.51,"body":"If there's going to be less"},{"startTime":1912.14,"endTime":1916.51,"body":"of it, that has an impact"},{"startTime":1916.51,"endTime":1920.95,"body":"the top bars, on our domestic economy."},{"startTime":1920.95,"endTime":1925.06,"body":"Because trade impacts on how"},{"startTime":1920.95,"endTime":1925.06,"body":"our domestic economy works."},{"startTime":1925.06,"endTime":1928.84,"body":"Now, if we want to dig"},{"startTime":1925.06,"endTime":1928.84,"body":"into that a little bit,"},{"startTime":1928.84,"endTime":1933.317,"body":"this was the Treasury forecast from 2017,"},{"startTime":1933.317,"endTime":1934.5,"body":"and it looks a bit grubby"},{"startTime":1934.5,"endTime":1936.013,"body":"because it's a photocopy of the thing"},{"startTime":1936.013,"endTime":1939.05,"body":"that was leaked to BuzzFeed,"},{"startTime":1939.05,"endTime":1940.72,"body":"because after the Treasury"},{"startTime":1939.05,"endTime":1940.72,"body":"did these forecasts,"},{"startTime":1940.72,"endTime":1942.546,"body":"they decided that no one should see them."},{"startTime":1942.546,"endTime":1946.102,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":1946.102,"endTime":1948.973,"body":"The negative bits are underneath the 0%,"},{"startTime":1948.973,"endTime":1951.39,"body":"the negative impacts of Brexit."},{"startTime":1951.39,"endTime":1954.36,"body":"The main negative impact"},{"startTime":1951.39,"endTime":1954.36,"body":"of Brexit are those bits,"},{"startTime":1954.36,"endTime":1958.813,"body":"the diagonal blue lines,"},{"startTime":1954.36,"endTime":1958.813,"body":"non-tariff barriers."},{"startTime":1959.66,"endTime":1962.37,"body":"That is to say"},{"startTime":1959.66,"endTime":1962.37,"body":"administrative requirements,"},{"startTime":1962.37,"endTime":1965.0,"body":"rules of origin requirements, paperwork,"},{"startTime":1965.0,"endTime":1968.69,"body":"customers checks, all those"},{"startTime":1965.0,"endTime":1968.69,"body":"sorts of things, not tariffs."},{"startTime":1968.69,"endTime":1973.69,"body":"But all that admin rubbish"},{"startTime":1968.69,"endTime":1973.69,"body":"makes trade more expensive,"},{"startTime":1974.53,"endTime":1977.19,"body":"makes it less efficient,"},{"startTime":1974.53,"endTime":1977.19,"body":"makes it more costly."},{"startTime":1977.19,"endTime":1980.13,"body":"What the Trade and Cooperation"},{"startTime":1977.19,"endTime":1980.13,"body":"Agreement that we signed"},{"startTime":1980.13,"endTime":1983.073,"body":"with the European Union"},{"startTime":1980.13,"endTime":1983.073,"body":"does is it removes tariffs,"},{"startTime":1984.03,"endTime":1986.85,"body":"but tariffs are a relatively small part of"},{"startTime":1986.85,"endTime":1990.11,"body":"the problem of trading from"},{"startTime":1986.85,"endTime":1990.11,"body":"outside the European Union."},{"startTime":1990.11,"endTime":1991.73,"body":"So in a sense, it's"},{"startTime":1990.11,"endTime":1991.73,"body":"the non-tariff barriers"},{"startTime":1991.73,"endTime":1993.54,"body":"that are key to the problems"},{"startTime":1993.54,"endTime":1996.22,"body":"that exporters and importers are facing."},{"startTime":1996.22,"endTime":1999.19,"body":"And actually, bear in"},{"startTime":1996.22,"endTime":1999.19,"body":"mind, they're not facing"},{"startTime":1999.19,"endTime":2000.847,"body":"all the problems they"},{"startTime":1999.19,"endTime":2000.847,"body":"were going to face yet"},{"startTime":2000.847,"endTime":2003.71,"body":"'cause the British"},{"startTime":2000.847,"endTime":2003.71,"body":"government, only in July,"},{"startTime":2003.71,"endTime":2006.19,"body":"will put in place the final"},{"startTime":2003.71,"endTime":2006.19,"body":"checks that are needed"},{"startTime":2006.19,"endTime":2008.84,"body":"on things coming from the European Union."},{"startTime":2008.84,"endTime":2012.79,"body":"The other interesting thing about this is"},{"startTime":2012.79,"endTime":2015.18,"body":"if you look above that"},{"startTime":2012.79,"endTime":2015.18,"body":"line there are two things."},{"startTime":2015.18,"endTime":2019.79,"body":"The black bit is what the"},{"startTime":2015.18,"endTime":2019.79,"body":"Treasury thought we could gain"},{"startTime":2019.79,"endTime":2021.993,"body":"via regulatory independence."},{"startTime":2023.04,"endTime":2024.33,"body":"Not in the European Union,"},{"startTime":2024.33,"endTime":2027.21,"body":"we can tailor the regulations"},{"startTime":2024.33,"endTime":2027.21,"body":"that govern our economy"},{"startTime":2027.21,"endTime":2028.73,"body":"to our specific circumstances"},{"startTime":2028.73,"endTime":2030.22,"body":"and that should make us more effective"},{"startTime":2030.22,"endTime":2032.46,"body":"and more efficient, make"},{"startTime":2030.22,"endTime":2032.46,"body":"our economy work better."},{"startTime":2032.46,"endTime":2034.74,"body":"Yes, but not by much."},{"startTime":2034.74,"endTime":2037.44,"body":"The other bit above the line"},{"startTime":2037.44,"endTime":2041.07,"body":"is the Treasury's forecast"},{"startTime":2037.44,"endTime":2041.07,"body":"of the positive impact"},{"startTime":2041.07,"endTime":2045.0,"body":"of trade deals with every"},{"startTime":2041.07,"endTime":2045.0,"body":"single one of those countries"},{"startTime":2045.0,"endTime":2046.97,"body":"at the bottom, okay."},{"startTime":2046.97,"endTime":2049.48,"body":"So yes, we can sign trade deals."},{"startTime":2049.48,"endTime":2051.78,"body":"We've started to sign trade deals,"},{"startTime":2051.78,"endTime":2054.52,"body":"but we shouldn't expect"},{"startTime":2051.78,"endTime":2054.52,"body":"trade deals with countries"},{"startTime":2054.52,"endTime":2056.68,"body":"at the other side of the world"},{"startTime":2057.64,"endTime":2059.9,"body":"to come anywhere near compensating"},{"startTime":2059.9,"endTime":2062.96,"body":"for the economic impact"},{"startTime":2059.9,"endTime":2062.96,"body":"of making trade harder"},{"startTime":2062.96,"endTime":2065.27,"body":"with your nearest neighbor."},{"startTime":2065.27,"endTime":2068.923,"body":"Why? Because trade depends on geography."},{"startTime":2070.83,"endTime":2071.663,"body":"I live in Oxford."},{"startTime":2071.663,"endTime":2074.35,"body":"We have a BMW factory in Oxford."},{"startTime":2074.35,"endTime":2075.85,"body":"We're not going to make cars"},{"startTime":2075.85,"endTime":2079.6,"body":"that way with New Zealand, okay."},{"startTime":2079.6,"endTime":2081.64,"body":"Because of the simple fact of geography."},{"startTime":2081.64,"endTime":2084.65,"body":"So geography matters in trade"},{"startTime":2084.65,"endTime":2088.19,"body":"and that is why all these"},{"startTime":2084.65,"endTime":2088.19,"body":"trade deals that Liz Truss"},{"startTime":2088.19,"endTime":2092.53,"body":"and now Anne-Marie Trevelyan"},{"startTime":2088.19,"endTime":2092.53,"body":"might be signing have use,"},{"startTime":2092.53,"endTime":2094.88,"body":"they're building good political relations,"},{"startTime":2094.88,"endTime":2096.46,"body":"there are geopolitics at stake,"},{"startTime":2096.46,"endTime":2097.7,"body":"the rise of China and all that."},{"startTime":2097.7,"endTime":2098.96,"body":"I'm not saying for a"},{"startTime":2097.7,"endTime":2098.96,"body":"moment, it's not worth it."},{"startTime":2098.96,"endTime":2100.53,"body":"It absolutely is."},{"startTime":2100.53,"endTime":2102.67,"body":"Creating friendships and"},{"startTime":2100.53,"endTime":2102.67,"body":"alliances around the world,"},{"startTime":2102.67,"endTime":2105.4,"body":"because we live in a very"},{"startTime":2102.67,"endTime":2105.4,"body":"uncertain and threatening world."},{"startTime":2105.4,"endTime":2106.93,"body":"But don't think about them"},{"startTime":2106.93,"endTime":2109.78,"body":"in terms of making up economically"},{"startTime":2109.78,"endTime":2111.91,"body":"for the economic impact of Brexit."},{"startTime":2111.91,"endTime":2114.13,"body":"And if you want to put the"},{"startTime":2111.91,"endTime":2114.13,"body":"economic impact of Brexit"},{"startTime":2114.13,"endTime":2116.113,"body":"into some course of context,"},{"startTime":2118.13,"endTime":2119.14,"body":"actually, let's do this first."},{"startTime":2119.14,"endTime":2120.67,"body":"I've got that wrong, sorry."},{"startTime":2120.67,"endTime":2122.1,"body":"This is what's happening now."},{"startTime":2122.1,"endTime":2123.72,"body":"So the forecasts have being borne out,"},{"startTime":2123.72,"endTime":2126.79,"body":"that you have EU in the red lines"},{"startTime":2126.79,"endTime":2129.64,"body":"are EU exports and imports"},{"startTime":2129.64,"endTime":2132.74,"body":"and you can already see"},{"startTime":2129.64,"endTime":2132.74,"body":"that there is an impact"},{"startTime":2132.74,"endTime":2136.71,"body":"on that EU trade because"},{"startTime":2132.74,"endTime":2136.71,"body":"we are now implementing"},{"startTime":2136.71,"endTime":2138.15,"body":"the Trade and Cooperation Agreement"},{"startTime":2138.15,"endTime":2140.41,"body":"and that trade is harder than it was"},{"startTime":2140.41,"endTime":2142.91,"body":"prior to the time when we"},{"startTime":2140.41,"endTime":2142.91,"body":"were implementing that."},{"startTime":2142.91,"endTime":2145.02,"body":"I should say, the numbers"},{"startTime":2142.91,"endTime":2145.02,"body":"are all a bit messy"},{"startTime":2145.02,"endTime":2147.44,"body":"and fuzzy at the moment because of COVID."},{"startTime":2147.44,"endTime":2150.25,"body":"Trade isn't where it used"},{"startTime":2147.44,"endTime":2150.25,"body":"to be because of COVID."},{"startTime":2150.25,"endTime":2152.6,"body":"Services trade in particular,"},{"startTime":2150.25,"endTime":2152.6,"body":"if you want think about me,"},{"startTime":2152.6,"endTime":2154.06,"body":"someone invites me to give a guest lecture"},{"startTime":2154.06,"endTime":2155.55,"body":"and wants me to pay for it, I can't go"},{"startTime":2155.55,"endTime":2156.95,"body":"or I couldn't go until recently,"},{"startTime":2156.95,"endTime":2159.17,"body":"because I'd have to pay"},{"startTime":2156.95,"endTime":2159.17,"body":"for 7,000 PCR tests."},{"startTime":2159.17,"endTime":2160.223,"body":"So I wouldn't go."},{"startTime":2161.26,"endTime":2163.65,"body":"But on top of that, because of the TCA,"},{"startTime":2163.65,"endTime":2165.0,"body":"if I want to go and give a lecture"},{"startTime":2165.0,"endTime":2166.67,"body":"and get paid for it in Belgium,"},{"startTime":2166.67,"endTime":2168.43,"body":"I'm going to have to"},{"startTime":2166.67,"endTime":2168.43,"body":"fill in immigration forms"},{"startTime":2168.43,"endTime":2170.14,"body":"and I'm going to have to"},{"startTime":2168.43,"endTime":2170.14,"body":"fill in all sorts of forms"},{"startTime":2170.14,"endTime":2171.5,"body":"that I wouldn't have had to fill in before"},{"startTime":2171.5,"endTime":2173.26,"body":"and that might just make"},{"startTime":2171.5,"endTime":2173.26,"body":"me think, you know what?"},{"startTime":2173.26,"endTime":2174.55,"body":"I'll stay here."},{"startTime":2174.55,"endTime":2175.41,"body":"It'll be absolutely fine."},{"startTime":2175.41,"endTime":2177.18,"body":"So, the figures are messy."},{"startTime":2177.18,"endTime":2178.92,"body":"But if you want to put it"},{"startTime":2177.18,"endTime":2178.92,"body":"in some sort of context,"},{"startTime":2178.92,"endTime":2181.53,"body":"this is the long-term forecast"},{"startTime":2178.92,"endTime":2181.53,"body":"done by a friend of mine"},{"startTime":2181.53,"endTime":2183.083,"body":"at the LSE, Thomas Sampson."},{"startTime":2184.12,"endTime":2188.03,"body":"So the green line is the economic"},{"startTime":2184.12,"endTime":2188.03,"body":"impact of where we are now"},{"startTime":2188.03,"endTime":2191.3,"body":"over the medium term."},{"startTime":2191.3,"endTime":2194.59,"body":"The blue line is the"},{"startTime":2191.3,"endTime":2194.59,"body":"economic impact of COVID"},{"startTime":2195.49,"endTime":2196.9,"body":"over the medium term."},{"startTime":2196.9,"endTime":2200.093,"body":"So whilst COVID might be"},{"startTime":2196.9,"endTime":2200.093,"body":"drowning everything out here,"},{"startTime":2201.22,"endTime":2204.23,"body":"over time the impact of"},{"startTime":2201.22,"endTime":2204.23,"body":"Brexit is going to be"},{"startTime":2204.23,"endTime":2209.23,"body":"two to three times that of"},{"startTime":2204.23,"endTime":2209.23,"body":"COVID on the UK economy."},{"startTime":2211.55,"endTime":2216.55,"body":"So there are the things"},{"startTime":2211.55,"endTime":2216.55,"body":"we've learnt about trade."},{"startTime":2216.97,"endTime":2218.32,"body":"The final set of lessons,"},{"startTime":2218.32,"endTime":2220.39,"body":"and in a way the most important lessons,"},{"startTime":2220.39,"endTime":2222.78,"body":"the most interesting lessons I think,"},{"startTime":2222.78,"endTime":2227.78,"body":"is that Brexit has made"},{"startTime":2222.78,"endTime":2227.78,"body":"us learn about ourselves."},{"startTime":2228.48,"endTime":2231.37,"body":"It's made us learn about our country"},{"startTime":2232.8,"endTime":2235.163,"body":"in many, many different ways."},{"startTime":2236.07,"endTime":2240.58,"body":"Firstly, we've realized"},{"startTime":2236.07,"endTime":2240.58,"body":"just how divided we are."},{"startTime":2240.58,"endTime":2243.1,"body":"But also we've realized"},{"startTime":2240.58,"endTime":2243.1,"body":"that what divide us"},{"startTime":2243.1,"endTime":2245.513,"body":"might not be what we thought divides us."},{"startTime":2247.48,"endTime":2250.31,"body":"The division of Brexit isn't"},{"startTime":2247.48,"endTime":2250.31,"body":"a division between people"},{"startTime":2250.31,"endTime":2253.12,"body":"who are left-wing and"},{"startTime":2250.31,"endTime":2253.12,"body":"people who are right-wing,"},{"startTime":2253.12,"endTime":2255.42,"body":"it is a division between"},{"startTime":2253.12,"endTime":2255.42,"body":"people who are socially liberal"},{"startTime":2255.42,"endTime":2257.73,"body":"and people who are socially conservative."},{"startTime":2257.73,"endTime":2259.1,"body":"It's about worldviews."},{"startTime":2259.1,"endTime":2261.5,"body":"It's about something quite"},{"startTime":2259.1,"endTime":2261.5,"body":"intangible, in some ways."},{"startTime":2261.5,"endTime":2264.44,"body":"When survey firms try and tap into this"},{"startTime":2264.44,"endTime":2266.84,"body":"they ask questions"},{"startTime":2264.44,"endTime":2266.84,"body":"about the death penalty."},{"startTime":2266.84,"endTime":2271.13,"body":"They ask questions about gay"},{"startTime":2266.84,"endTime":2271.13,"body":"rights, about gender equality,"},{"startTime":2271.13,"endTime":2272.15,"body":"about whether you think there should be"},{"startTime":2272.15,"endTime":2274.13,"body":"stricter discipline in schools."},{"startTime":2274.13,"endTime":2276.85,"body":"You know you can feel I"},{"startTime":2274.13,"endTime":2276.85,"body":"think if you're British,"},{"startTime":2276.85,"endTime":2277.84,"body":"but certainly you can feel it,"},{"startTime":2277.84,"endTime":2280.24,"body":"the sorts of things we're"},{"startTime":2277.84,"endTime":2280.24,"body":"trying to get at here."},{"startTime":2281.31,"endTime":2284.67,"body":"That there is a very,"},{"startTime":2281.31,"endTime":2284.67,"body":"very high correlation"},{"startTime":2284.67,"endTime":2286.87,"body":"between where you are"},{"startTime":2284.67,"endTime":2286.87,"body":"on that social scale,"},{"startTime":2286.87,"endTime":2289.32,"body":"social liberal or social conservative,"},{"startTime":2289.32,"endTime":2291.83,"body":"and your propensity to vote for Brexit."},{"startTime":2291.83,"endTime":2294.52,"body":"One of the reasons why"},{"startTime":2291.83,"endTime":2294.52,"body":"we now have to say things"},{"startTime":2294.52,"endTime":2297.66,"body":"we never thought we'd have to"},{"startTime":2294.52,"endTime":2297.66,"body":"say Labour-wing Kensington,"},{"startTime":2297.66,"endTime":2301.32,"body":"Labour-wing Canterbury, the"},{"startTime":2297.66,"endTime":2301.32,"body":"Conservatives-wing Wakefield,"},{"startTime":2301.32,"endTime":2303.5,"body":"is because it's not about"},{"startTime":2301.32,"endTime":2303.5,"body":"left and right anymore,"},{"startTime":2303.5,"endTime":2305.01,"body":"it's about something else."},{"startTime":2305.01,"endTime":2307.4,"body":"And that something else is"},{"startTime":2305.01,"endTime":2307.4,"body":"a fundamentally different"},{"startTime":2307.4,"endTime":2309.9,"body":"division in our country."},{"startTime":2309.9,"endTime":2311.76,"body":"But if you want to know"},{"startTime":2309.9,"endTime":2311.76,"body":"how amorphous this is"},{"startTime":2311.76,"endTime":2314.75,"body":"and how cultural it is and"},{"startTime":2311.76,"endTime":2314.75,"body":"how hard it is to pin down,"},{"startTime":2314.75,"endTime":2318.31,"body":"one of the weird things"},{"startTime":2314.75,"endTime":2318.31,"body":"about the Brexit division is"},{"startTime":2318.31,"endTime":2320.42,"body":"one of the best predictors"},{"startTime":2318.31,"endTime":2320.42,"body":"of how you voted"},{"startTime":2320.42,"endTime":2323.12,"body":"in the referendum is whether or not"},{"startTime":2323.12,"endTime":2328.06,"body":"you like \"Mrs. Brown's Boys\"."},{"startTime":2323.12,"endTime":2328.06,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2328.06,"endTime":2331.417,"body":"And again, I mean if you're"},{"startTime":2328.06,"endTime":2331.417,"body":"British you can feel this"},{"startTime":2331.417,"endTime":2332.9,"body":"and you know what I mean."},{"startTime":2332.9,"endTime":2335.09,"body":"You know that whole thing about snobbery"},{"startTime":2335.09,"endTime":2336.66,"body":"and inverse snobbery."},{"startTime":2336.66,"endTime":2338.93,"body":"But you know \"Mrs. Brown's Boys\""},{"startTime":2338.93,"endTime":2343.93,"body":"tells you an awful lot"},{"startTime":2338.93,"endTime":2343.93,"body":"about your worldview, okay."},{"startTime":2344.09,"endTime":2349.09,"body":"But this is, it's the third"},{"startTime":2344.09,"endTime":2349.09,"body":"best predictor, basically,"},{"startTime":2350.105,"endTime":2351.41,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2351.41,"endTime":2353.37,"body":"for where you stand on the Brexit divide."},{"startTime":2353.37,"endTime":2355.69,"body":"So that's just to give"},{"startTime":2353.37,"endTime":2355.69,"body":"you a flavor of the fact"},{"startTime":2355.69,"endTime":2358.79,"body":"that this is actually very cultural."},{"startTime":2358.79,"endTime":2360.29,"body":"So the first thing is we're divided"},{"startTime":2360.29,"endTime":2361.47,"body":"and we're divided by something"},{"startTime":2361.47,"endTime":2363.29,"body":"that we didn't really realize divided us."},{"startTime":2363.29,"endTime":2365.37,"body":"But when you say it out"},{"startTime":2363.29,"endTime":2365.37,"body":"loud, actually, it's like,"},{"startTime":2365.37,"endTime":2369.2,"body":"yeah, you can see why you"},{"startTime":2365.37,"endTime":2369.2,"body":"have these two worldviews"},{"startTime":2369.2,"endTime":2370.82,"body":"that are quite inimical."},{"startTime":2370.82,"endTime":2372.66,"body":"It's quite hard to reconcile them."},{"startTime":2372.66,"endTime":2375.21,"body":"But there's another division"},{"startTime":2372.66,"endTime":2375.21,"body":"we've learnt about too"},{"startTime":2376.21,"endTime":2379.563,"body":"and it's a division that is"},{"startTime":2376.21,"endTime":2379.563,"body":"economic rather than cultural."},{"startTime":2380.53,"endTime":2384.163,"body":"That is the map of leave versus remain."},{"startTime":2385.6,"endTime":2386.75,"body":"I don't know if you remember,"},{"startTime":2386.75,"endTime":2391.53,"body":"but when Rory Stewart was"},{"startTime":2386.75,"endTime":2391.53,"body":"standing to be mayor of London,"},{"startTime":2391.53,"endTime":2393.44,"body":"he did a very bizarre interview."},{"startTime":2393.44,"endTime":2395.2,"body":"And one of the questions"},{"startTime":2393.44,"endTime":2395.2,"body":"Rory was asked was"},{"startTime":2395.2,"endTime":2398.05,"body":"what's your favorite pub, right?"},{"startTime":2398.05,"endTime":2401.849,"body":"And Rory, being Rory and a"},{"startTime":2398.05,"endTime":2401.849,"body":"little bit odd, said, \"Pret.\""},{"startTime":2401.849,"endTime":2402.93,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2402.93,"endTime":2407.93,"body":"Right. It's okay, so that's"},{"startTime":2402.93,"endTime":2407.93,"body":"strange to start with, okay."},{"startTime":2409.82,"endTime":2411.46,"body":"And then something else strange happened"},{"startTime":2411.46,"endTime":2414.13,"body":"that Rory was bombarded on Twitter,"},{"startTime":2414.13,"endTime":2416.27,"body":"particularly from the"},{"startTime":2414.13,"endTime":2416.27,"body":"Corbynite left by tweets"},{"startTime":2416.27,"endTime":2419.51,"body":"accusing him of being"},{"startTime":2416.27,"endTime":2419.51,"body":"an appalling, arrogant,"},{"startTime":2419.51,"endTime":2423.94,"body":"liberal, metropolitan snob,"},{"startTime":2419.51,"endTime":2423.94,"body":"because he liked Pret,"},{"startTime":2423.94,"endTime":2426.18,"body":"which I didn't understand."},{"startTime":2426.18,"endTime":2429.194,"body":"And so I got the team in the"},{"startTime":2426.18,"endTime":2429.194,"body":"office to look into this."},{"startTime":2429.194,"endTime":2431.27,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2431.27,"endTime":2435.927,"body":"That's where the Prets"},{"startTime":2431.27,"endTime":2435.927,"body":"are in the United Kingdom."},{"startTime":2439.76,"endTime":2441.35,"body":"You can actually, it turns out,"},{"startTime":2441.35,"endTime":2442.61,"body":"do something very similar"},{"startTime":2442.61,"endTime":2445.26,"body":"with density of fish and chip restaurants."},{"startTime":2445.26,"endTime":2447.07,"body":"There is a very strong correlation"},{"startTime":2447.07,"endTime":2449.41,"body":"between the density of"},{"startTime":2447.07,"endTime":2449.41,"body":"fish and chip restaurants"},{"startTime":2449.41,"endTime":2450.3,"body":"and Brexit vote."},{"startTime":2450.3,"endTime":2451.9,"body":"But there's equally a"},{"startTime":2450.3,"endTime":2451.9,"body":"very strong correlation"},{"startTime":2451.9,"endTime":2455.27,"body":"between where Prets are and remain votes."},{"startTime":2455.27,"endTime":2456.96,"body":"You can understand from this"},{"startTime":2456.96,"endTime":2459.69,"body":"why Rory wanted to be mayor of London,"},{"startTime":2459.69,"endTime":2462.03,"body":"because in his constituency,"},{"startTime":2459.69,"endTime":2462.03,"body":"in the Lake District,"},{"startTime":2462.03,"endTime":2464.787,"body":"he had like a 20 hour"},{"startTime":2462.03,"endTime":2464.787,"body":"walk to the nearest Pret."},{"startTime":2464.787,"endTime":2466.05,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2464.787,"endTime":2466.05,"body":"Whereas, obviously,"},{"startTime":2466.05,"endTime":2468.22,"body":"as mayor of London it"},{"startTime":2466.05,"endTime":2468.22,"body":"would be relatively easy"},{"startTime":2468.22,"endTime":2470.37,"body":"to get to his favorite pub."},{"startTime":2470.37,"endTime":2475.37,"body":"Anyway, there's a"},{"startTime":2470.37,"endTime":2475.37,"body":"serious point behind this"},{"startTime":2475.41,"endTime":2476.98,"body":"and the serious point behind this is"},{"startTime":2476.98,"endTime":2479.71,"body":"that liberal metropolitan point,"},{"startTime":2479.71,"endTime":2483.58,"body":"that Prets tend to spring"},{"startTime":2479.71,"endTime":2483.58,"body":"up in prosperous areas."},{"startTime":2483.58,"endTime":2488.09,"body":"And if you look at this,"},{"startTime":2483.58,"endTime":2488.09,"body":"there is a correlation"},{"startTime":2488.09,"endTime":2491.93,"body":"between your the"},{"startTime":2488.09,"endTime":2491.93,"body":"likelihood of voting leave"},{"startTime":2491.93,"endTime":2493.37,"body":"and median income."},{"startTime":2493.37,"endTime":2496.46,"body":"That is to say, in general"},{"startTime":2493.37,"endTime":2496.46,"body":"and on top of other factors,"},{"startTime":2496.46,"endTime":2498.97,"body":"age and education clearly"},{"startTime":2496.46,"endTime":2498.97,"body":"work fundamental to this,"},{"startTime":2498.97,"endTime":2501.8,"body":"which takes us back to"},{"startTime":2498.97,"endTime":2501.8,"body":"\"Mrs. Brown's Boys\","},{"startTime":2501.8,"endTime":2503.87,"body":"income was another"},{"startTime":2501.8,"endTime":2503.87,"body":"predictor of how you voted"},{"startTime":2503.87,"endTime":2505.546,"body":"in the Brexit referendum."},{"startTime":2505.546,"endTime":2507.49,"body":"And one of the interesting"},{"startTime":2505.546,"endTime":2507.49,"body":"things about that referendum,"},{"startTime":2507.49,"endTime":2509.85,"body":"I think, waking up on the 24th of June"},{"startTime":2511.27,"endTime":2513.36,"body":"was this very profound sense, you know."},{"startTime":2513.36,"endTime":2516.27,"body":"I remember my sort of"},{"startTime":2513.36,"endTime":2516.27,"body":"Oxford or London friends"},{"startTime":2516.27,"endTime":2517.103,"body":"sort of saying, \"Bloody hell,"},{"startTime":2517.103,"endTime":2518.4,"body":"all those people up"},{"startTime":2517.103,"endTime":2518.4,"body":"north have voted leave."},{"startTime":2518.4,"endTime":2519.87,"body":"Why? What's up with them?\""},{"startTime":2519.87,"endTime":2522.08,"body":"You know people noticed the north."},{"startTime":2522.08,"endTime":2523.86,"body":"I remember friends of"},{"startTime":2522.08,"endTime":2523.86,"body":"mine in Yorkshire saying"},{"startTime":2523.86,"endTime":2525.45,"body":"that for weeks after the referendum"},{"startTime":2525.45,"endTime":2528.64,"body":"you could barely move for"},{"startTime":2525.45,"endTime":2528.64,"body":"tripping over BBC journalists"},{"startTime":2528.64,"endTime":2530.84,"body":"who'd gone up there to"},{"startTime":2528.64,"endTime":2530.84,"body":"figure out, you know."},{"startTime":2531.688,"endTime":2533.57,"body":"And there were all these"},{"startTime":2531.688,"endTime":2533.57,"body":"sort of rye jokes on Facebook"},{"startTime":2533.57,"endTime":2535.67,"body":"that David Attenborough"},{"startTime":2533.57,"endTime":2535.67,"body":"would pop up in Hartlepool"},{"startTime":2535.67,"endTime":2537.62,"body":"doing a natural history"},{"startTime":2537.62,"endTime":2539.881,"body":"on the sex life of someone in the north."},{"startTime":2539.881,"endTime":2540.714,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2539.881,"endTime":2540.714,"body":"You know,"},{"startTime":2540.714,"endTime":2542.01,"body":"mating behavior of the Leaver."},{"startTime":2542.01,"endTime":2543.32,"body":"But there was this real sense that,"},{"startTime":2543.32,"endTime":2546.59,"body":"actually, the country was"},{"startTime":2543.32,"endTime":2546.59,"body":"awakened to bits of itself"},{"startTime":2546.59,"endTime":2551.33,"body":"that you hadn't paid any"},{"startTime":2546.59,"endTime":2551.33,"body":"attention to beforehand, okay."},{"startTime":2551.33,"endTime":2554.2,"body":"And one of the things"},{"startTime":2551.33,"endTime":2554.2,"body":"we've come to realize is"},{"startTime":2554.2,"endTime":2558.68,"body":"this is a very unequal country."},{"startTime":2558.68,"endTime":2561.01,"body":"It's a country where there are real,"},{"startTime":2561.01,"endTime":2562.93,"body":"acute regional disparities."},{"startTime":2562.93,"endTime":2563.893,"body":"Look at that."},{"startTime":2565.83,"endTime":2569.5,"body":"It's a comparison between"},{"startTime":2565.83,"endTime":2569.5,"body":"the scale of difference"},{"startTime":2569.5,"endTime":2572.573,"body":"between the richest and poorest"},{"startTime":2569.5,"endTime":2572.573,"body":"regions across countries."},{"startTime":2574.32,"endTime":2576.3,"body":"If you take the gap in productivity"},{"startTime":2576.3,"endTime":2578.97,"body":"between the least productive"},{"startTime":2576.3,"endTime":2578.97,"body":"part of the United Kingdom"},{"startTime":2578.97,"endTime":2581.06,"body":"and the most productive"},{"startTime":2578.97,"endTime":2581.06,"body":"part of the Kingdom,"},{"startTime":2581.06,"endTime":2584.44,"body":"that gap is equivalent to"},{"startTime":2581.06,"endTime":2584.44,"body":"the gap between the least"},{"startTime":2584.44,"endTime":2589.193,"body":"and most productive parts"},{"startTime":2584.44,"endTime":2589.193,"body":"of the Eurozone, okay."},{"startTime":2591.5,"endTime":2596.47,"body":"So we are sort of, in many"},{"startTime":2591.5,"endTime":2596.47,"body":"ways, uniquely unequal."},{"startTime":2596.47,"endTime":2598.04,"body":"There was something real here."},{"startTime":2598.04,"endTime":2601.93,"body":"And for all the stuff I've"},{"startTime":2598.04,"endTime":2601.93,"body":"been saying about social values"},{"startTime":2601.93,"endTime":2603.4,"body":"and all that sort of thing,"},{"startTime":2603.4,"endTime":2605.5,"body":"there was also another"},{"startTime":2603.4,"endTime":2605.5,"body":"element to the referendum"},{"startTime":2605.5,"endTime":2608.36,"body":"which it was a bit of a howl of protest."},{"startTime":2608.36,"endTime":2610.32,"body":"It was a howl of protest at a system"},{"startTime":2610.32,"endTime":2611.59,"body":"that had left us with this."},{"startTime":2611.59,"endTime":2613.55,"body":"It was a howl of protest at a system,"},{"startTime":2613.55,"endTime":2617.7,"body":"that partly because of the"},{"startTime":2613.55,"endTime":2617.7,"body":"way our politics worked,"},{"startTime":2617.7,"endTime":2620.1,"body":"the voices of people who didn't benefit"},{"startTime":2620.1,"endTime":2622.82,"body":"from the status quo were being"},{"startTime":2620.1,"endTime":2622.82,"body":"systematically overlooked."},{"startTime":2622.82,"endTime":2625.02,"body":"I remember a mate of mine at home,"},{"startTime":2625.02,"endTime":2626.87,"body":"about halfway through"},{"startTime":2625.02,"endTime":2626.87,"body":"the referendum campaign"},{"startTime":2626.87,"endTime":2630.47,"body":"George Osborne gave a"},{"startTime":2626.87,"endTime":2630.47,"body":"talk or a press conference"},{"startTime":2630.47,"endTime":2631.357,"body":"or something at which he said,"},{"startTime":2631.357,"endTime":2634.29,"body":"\"I've got to warn people"},{"startTime":2631.357,"endTime":2634.29,"body":"that if you vote for Brexit,"},{"startTime":2634.29,"endTime":2636.19,"body":"the city of London will be damaged"},{"startTime":2636.19,"endTime":2638.69,"body":"and house prices will go down.\""},{"startTime":2638.69,"endTime":2640.12,"body":"Well, my mate texted me from Wakefield"},{"startTime":2640.12,"endTime":2642.89,"body":"and said has he changed"},{"startTime":2640.12,"endTime":2642.89,"body":"sides, is he a Leaver now?"},{"startTime":2642.89,"endTime":2645.42,"body":"Because for many people in the country,"},{"startTime":2645.42,"endTime":2646.39,"body":"those are good things."},{"startTime":2646.39,"endTime":2648.15,"body":"You know London's getting"},{"startTime":2646.39,"endTime":2648.15,"body":"punished, that's great."},{"startTime":2648.15,"endTime":2649.41,"body":"They've always had too much of everything."},{"startTime":2649.41,"endTime":2650.7,"body":"And I heard house prices are going down,"},{"startTime":2650.7,"endTime":2652.353,"body":"which means I can actually get one."},{"startTime":2654.08,"endTime":2655.4,"body":"And that sort of summarized to me"},{"startTime":2655.4,"endTime":2658.14,"body":"just how out of touch"},{"startTime":2655.4,"endTime":2658.14,"body":"some of this debate was."},{"startTime":2658.14,"endTime":2661.2,"body":"The Brexit referendum,"},{"startTime":2658.14,"endTime":2661.2,"body":"the case of David Cameron"},{"startTime":2661.2,"endTime":2665.15,"body":"and George Osborne was why"},{"startTime":2661.2,"endTime":2665.15,"body":"the hell would you vote"},{"startTime":2665.15,"endTime":2666.813,"body":"against the status quo?"},{"startTime":2668.06,"endTime":2669.57,"body":"And for many on the Brexit side,"},{"startTime":2669.57,"endTime":2672.57,"body":"the counter argument was why"},{"startTime":2669.57,"endTime":2672.57,"body":"the hell would you vote for it?"},{"startTime":2673.71,"endTime":2676.94,"body":"And these were people who"},{"startTime":2673.71,"endTime":2676.94,"body":"felt, think back 2015,"},{"startTime":2676.94,"endTime":2679.583,"body":"4 million people voted"},{"startTime":2676.94,"endTime":2679.583,"body":"UKIP, they got one MP."},{"startTime":2681.27,"endTime":2684.04,"body":"Not much more than half"},{"startTime":2681.27,"endTime":2684.04,"body":"as many voted for the SMP,"},{"startTime":2684.04,"endTime":2686.52,"body":"if memory serves, and they got 50 odd MPs."},{"startTime":2686.52,"endTime":2687.68,"body":"So these were people who felt"},{"startTime":2687.68,"endTime":2690.75,"body":"not just on the receiving"},{"startTime":2687.68,"endTime":2690.75,"body":"end of economic policies"},{"startTime":2690.75,"endTime":2693.47,"body":"that had left them"},{"startTime":2690.75,"endTime":2693.47,"body":"systematically disadvantaged,"},{"startTime":2693.47,"endTime":2695.4,"body":"but also in a position where their voices"},{"startTime":2695.4,"endTime":2700.02,"body":"weren't being heard via the"},{"startTime":2695.4,"endTime":2700.02,"body":"political system either."},{"startTime":2700.02,"endTime":2701.589,"body":"And that is one of the reasons,"},{"startTime":2701.589,"endTime":2703.35,"body":"you know whatever you"},{"startTime":2701.589,"endTime":2703.35,"body":"might think about Brexit"},{"startTime":2703.35,"endTime":2705.99,"body":"and whatever I think"},{"startTime":2703.35,"endTime":2705.99,"body":"the aggregate economics"},{"startTime":2705.99,"endTime":2708.82,"body":"that I showed you earlier"},{"startTime":2705.99,"endTime":2708.82,"body":"is absolutely true,"},{"startTime":2708.82,"endTime":2711.33,"body":"but one of the things"},{"startTime":2708.82,"endTime":2711.33,"body":"that has come of Brexit is"},{"startTime":2711.33,"endTime":2712.52,"body":"we've learned about ourselves"},{"startTime":2712.52,"endTime":2714.77,"body":"and seem at least to be talking about"},{"startTime":2714.77,"endTime":2715.603,"body":"doing something about it."},{"startTime":2715.603,"endTime":2718.28,"body":"And so I mean I don't want to"},{"startTime":2715.603,"endTime":2718.28,"body":"judge government too harshly"},{"startTime":2718.28,"endTime":2719.27,"body":"over the last couple of years,"},{"startTime":2719.27,"endTime":2721.21,"body":"because God knows they've had"},{"startTime":2719.27,"endTime":2721.21,"body":"something else on their minds"},{"startTime":2721.21,"endTime":2723.81,"body":"apart from dealing with"},{"startTime":2721.21,"endTime":2723.81,"body":"regional inequality,"},{"startTime":2723.81,"endTime":2725.7,"body":"we've had the pandemic."},{"startTime":2725.7,"endTime":2727.39,"body":"But do you really think it's possible"},{"startTime":2727.39,"endTime":2729.2,"body":"that issues like leveling up"},{"startTime":2729.2,"endTime":2730.53,"body":"or the just about managing"},{"startTime":2730.53,"endTime":2733.85,"body":"or burning injustices would've figured"},{"startTime":2733.85,"endTime":2738.11,"body":"in our political discourse"},{"startTime":2733.85,"endTime":2738.11,"body":"to the extent they have"},{"startTime":2738.11,"endTime":2740.98,"body":"had Remain won the EU referendum."},{"startTime":2740.98,"endTime":2742.59,"body":"I find it very, very hard to believe"},{"startTime":2742.59,"endTime":2743.423,"body":"that they would've done."},{"startTime":2743.423,"endTime":2744.49,"body":"So in that sense at least,"},{"startTime":2744.49,"endTime":2746.79,"body":"we've changed the way we"},{"startTime":2744.49,"endTime":2746.79,"body":"think about ourselves."},{"startTime":2746.79,"endTime":2749.57,"body":"And this part of the learning experience,"},{"startTime":2749.57,"endTime":2753.58,"body":"I'm convinced, has been a"},{"startTime":2749.57,"endTime":2753.58,"body":"good and a salutary one."},{"startTime":2753.58,"endTime":2756.22,"body":"Because in a sense, it might"},{"startTime":2753.58,"endTime":2756.22,"body":"be that our economy ends up"},{"startTime":2756.22,"endTime":2758.87,"body":"being smaller than it would've"},{"startTime":2756.22,"endTime":2758.87,"body":"been if we'd stayed in."},{"startTime":2758.87,"endTime":2759.703,"body":"But there's a bit of me,"},{"startTime":2759.703,"endTime":2760.9,"body":"and this is a personal preference"},{"startTime":2760.9,"endTime":2762.3,"body":"unlike the rest of the lecture,"},{"startTime":2762.3,"endTime":2764.74,"body":"that thinks, okay, but"},{"startTime":2762.3,"endTime":2764.74,"body":"what if it's less unequal"},{"startTime":2764.74,"endTime":2766.61,"body":"than it would've been had we remained"},{"startTime":2766.61,"endTime":2767.8,"body":"inside the European Union?"},{"startTime":2767.8,"endTime":2769.22,"body":"I'm not saying that's going to be achieved"},{"startTime":2769.22,"endTime":2771.74,"body":"and there's a lot to be"},{"startTime":2769.22,"endTime":2771.74,"body":"desired about the leveling up"},{"startTime":2771.74,"endTime":2773.63,"body":"non-white paper apart from anything else."},{"startTime":2773.63,"endTime":2775.67,"body":"But you know not much is being done yet."},{"startTime":2775.67,"endTime":2777.27,"body":"But we have changed as a people"},{"startTime":2777.27,"endTime":2778.48,"body":"and we have changed as a people,"},{"startTime":2778.48,"endTime":2781.87,"body":"you know sometimes you look in"},{"startTime":2778.48,"endTime":2781.87,"body":"the mirror and it's a shock."},{"startTime":2781.87,"endTime":2783.69,"body":"Well, I don't know, it happens to me"},{"startTime":2783.69,"endTime":2785.05,"body":"sometimes I look in the"},{"startTime":2783.69,"endTime":2785.05,"body":"mirror and it's a shock."},{"startTime":2785.05,"endTime":2789.543,"body":"Well, as a country we"},{"startTime":2785.05,"endTime":2789.543,"body":"experienced that horrible shock."},{"startTime":2792.06,"endTime":2793.96,"body":"So, now we get to the"},{"startTime":2792.06,"endTime":2793.96,"body":"ropey bit where I really,"},{"startTime":2793.96,"endTime":2796.408,"body":"I'm just going to make things up."},{"startTime":2796.408,"endTime":2800.11,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2800.11,"endTime":2801.88,"body":"I mean the one thing you've"},{"startTime":2800.11,"endTime":2801.88,"body":"learned about politics"},{"startTime":2801.88,"endTime":2803.54,"body":"over the last five or six"},{"startTime":2801.88,"endTime":2803.54,"body":"years is there's no point"},{"startTime":2803.54,"endTime":2805.99,"body":"trying to predict anything"},{"startTime":2803.54,"endTime":2805.99,"body":"because you know within 24 hours,"},{"startTime":2805.99,"endTime":2807.3,"body":"you're going to look like an idiot."},{"startTime":2807.3,"endTime":2810.706,"body":"So here I go, I'm so glad"},{"startTime":2807.3,"endTime":2810.706,"body":"this is being filmed."},{"startTime":2810.706,"endTime":2813.34,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":2813.34,"endTime":2814.503,"body":"We are divided."},{"startTime":2815.43,"endTime":2819.03,"body":"In case, you thought you'd wake"},{"startTime":2815.43,"endTime":2819.03,"body":"up and it had all gone away."},{"startTime":2819.03,"endTime":2820.1,"body":"It hasn't."},{"startTime":2820.1,"endTime":2823.05,"body":"And let me say a quick"},{"startTime":2820.1,"endTime":2823.05,"body":"word about this chart."},{"startTime":2823.05,"endTime":2825.21,"body":"So YouGov have done this tracker,"},{"startTime":2825.21,"endTime":2827.76,"body":"was the decision to"},{"startTime":2825.21,"endTime":2827.76,"body":"leave the European Union"},{"startTime":2827.76,"endTime":2830.57,"body":"the right decision or"},{"startTime":2827.76,"endTime":2830.57,"body":"the wrong decision, okay?"},{"startTime":2830.57,"endTime":2835.57,"body":"And it's changed, that you"},{"startTime":2830.57,"endTime":2835.57,"body":"know wrong is pulling ahead."},{"startTime":2836.61,"endTime":2839.61,"body":"Don't if you're a Remainer"},{"startTime":2836.61,"endTime":2839.61,"body":"get too excited about this,"},{"startTime":2839.61,"endTime":2842.62,"body":"because one of the reasons"},{"startTime":2839.61,"endTime":2842.62,"body":"why wrong is pulling ahead"},{"startTime":2842.62,"endTime":2846.26,"body":"is because of demographic churn."},{"startTime":2846.26,"endTime":2849.47,"body":"Very, very few people have"},{"startTime":2846.26,"endTime":2849.47,"body":"changed their minds about Brexit,"},{"startTime":2849.47,"endTime":2850.303,"body":"very few."},{"startTime":2851.76,"endTime":2855.28,"body":"But more Leave than Remain"},{"startTime":2851.76,"endTime":2855.28,"body":"voters have passed away"},{"startTime":2855.28,"endTime":2857.75,"body":"because of the age demographic of the vote"},{"startTime":2857.75,"endTime":2861.6,"body":"and more young people have"},{"startTime":2857.75,"endTime":2861.6,"body":"joined the electorate."},{"startTime":2861.6,"endTime":2863.03,"body":"And, of course, young people were"},{"startTime":2863.03,"endTime":2864.82,"body":"disproportionately pro-remain."},{"startTime":2864.82,"endTime":2866.02,"body":"That's one of the reasons"},{"startTime":2866.02,"endTime":2868.51,"body":"why you see the change in those things."},{"startTime":2868.51,"endTime":2870.87,"body":"But anyway, that division is still there."},{"startTime":2870.87,"endTime":2872.653,"body":"And in case there was any doubt,"},{"startTime":2874.06,"endTime":2877.45,"body":"62% of voters continue"},{"startTime":2874.06,"endTime":2877.45,"body":"to hold a Brexit identity"},{"startTime":2877.45,"endTime":2880.31,"body":"and think of themselves"},{"startTime":2877.45,"endTime":2880.31,"body":"as Leaver or Remainer."},{"startTime":2880.31,"endTime":2884.61,"body":"More people in this country"},{"startTime":2880.31,"endTime":2884.61,"body":"identify as a Leaver"},{"startTime":2884.61,"endTime":2888.68,"body":"or as a Remainer than identify"},{"startTime":2884.61,"endTime":2888.68,"body":"as Labour or Conservative."},{"startTime":2888.68,"endTime":2891.62,"body":"So the idea that now we've left,"},{"startTime":2891.62,"endTime":2895.313,"body":"that division is simply going"},{"startTime":2891.62,"endTime":2895.313,"body":"to disappear is for the birds."},{"startTime":2896.42,"endTime":2898.38,"body":"Different things trigger it."},{"startTime":2898.38,"endTime":2900.07,"body":"It might be taking the knee."},{"startTime":2900.07,"endTime":2901.51,"body":"It might be pulling down a statue."},{"startTime":2901.51,"endTime":2904.95,"body":"It might be immigration,"},{"startTime":2901.51,"endTime":2904.95,"body":"but it's the same division."},{"startTime":2904.95,"endTime":2908.37,"body":"Might be the BBC, to take"},{"startTime":2904.95,"endTime":2908.37,"body":"a pretty topical example."},{"startTime":2908.37,"endTime":2911.29,"body":"But you can see why the"},{"startTime":2908.37,"endTime":2911.29,"body":"government plays to those things."},{"startTime":2911.29,"endTime":2914.35,"body":"Because, of course, Boris"},{"startTime":2911.29,"endTime":2914.35,"body":"Johnson in December, 2019,"},{"startTime":2914.35,"endTime":2916.04,"body":"put together a Leave coalition,"},{"startTime":2916.04,"endTime":2920.79,"body":"75% of Leave voters voted"},{"startTime":2916.04,"endTime":2920.79,"body":"conservative in December, 2019."},{"startTime":2920.79,"endTime":2924.28,"body":"So, but, the one thing that is shifting"},{"startTime":2927.64,"endTime":2930.44,"body":"is that more and more people now think"},{"startTime":2930.44,"endTime":2935.04,"body":"that Brexit is being handled badly, okay."},{"startTime":2935.04,"endTime":2937.29,"body":"Again, this doesn't mean"},{"startTime":2935.04,"endTime":2937.29,"body":"that more and more people"},{"startTime":2937.29,"endTime":2938.78,"body":"think we should rejoin."},{"startTime":2938.78,"endTime":2940.86,"body":"I suspect if you took"},{"startTime":2938.78,"endTime":2940.86,"body":"a focus group of people"},{"startTime":2940.86,"endTime":2942.62,"body":"and said do you fancy having five years"},{"startTime":2942.62,"endTime":2943.91,"body":"or 10 years of negotiations"},{"startTime":2943.91,"endTime":2946.02,"body":"with the European Union about rejoining?"},{"startTime":2946.02,"endTime":2948.531,"body":"They'd probably slap you,"},{"startTime":2946.02,"endTime":2948.531,"body":"apart from anything else."},{"startTime":2948.531,"endTime":2949.46,"body":"People want this out of the way."},{"startTime":2949.46,"endTime":2950.94,"body":"They want it done. They want it over."},{"startTime":2950.94,"endTime":2952.76,"body":"They want to get on with"},{"startTime":2950.94,"endTime":2952.76,"body":"their lives without COVID"},{"startTime":2952.76,"endTime":2954.93,"body":"and without Brexit and let's"},{"startTime":2952.76,"endTime":2954.93,"body":"not talk about them ever again,"},{"startTime":2954.93,"endTime":2955.82,"body":"thank you very much."},{"startTime":2955.82,"endTime":2958.01,"body":"But, they look at the government"},{"startTime":2958.01,"endTime":2960.55,"body":"and they think actually this"},{"startTime":2958.01,"endTime":2960.55,"body":"is being handled quite badly."},{"startTime":2960.55,"endTime":2963.45,"body":"I should say, in parentheses,"},{"startTime":2960.55,"endTime":2963.45,"body":"that they look at the EU"},{"startTime":2963.45,"endTime":2965.39,"body":"and think they're handling"},{"startTime":2963.45,"endTime":2965.39,"body":"it quite badly, too."},{"startTime":2965.39,"endTime":2967.96,"body":"It's not necessarily solely"},{"startTime":2965.39,"endTime":2967.96,"body":"the fault of our government,"},{"startTime":2967.96,"endTime":2972.16,"body":"but there is a change here in the sense"},{"startTime":2972.16,"endTime":2975.81,"body":"that those numbers imply, to me at least,"},{"startTime":2975.81,"endTime":2977.83,"body":"that the government can't count on Brexit"},{"startTime":2977.83,"endTime":2980.16,"body":"as a go-to to rally the base,"},{"startTime":2980.16,"endTime":2982.94,"body":"because the government's being"},{"startTime":2980.16,"endTime":2982.94,"body":"seen as handling it badly."},{"startTime":2982.94,"endTime":2986.38,"body":"And if a government that"},{"startTime":2982.94,"endTime":2986.38,"body":"told us two years ago"},{"startTime":2986.38,"endTime":2989.91,"body":"they'd got Brexit done,"},{"startTime":2986.38,"endTime":2989.91,"body":"keeps banging on about it,"},{"startTime":2989.91,"endTime":2991.37,"body":"some of those people are"},{"startTime":2989.91,"endTime":2991.37,"body":"going to start thinking,"},{"startTime":2991.37,"endTime":2994.46,"body":"hang on a sec, isn't this gone and done?"},{"startTime":2994.46,"endTime":2997.123,"body":"In October last year, so before partygate,"},{"startTime":2998.16,"endTime":3000.88,"body":"for the first time since July, 2019"},{"startTime":3000.88,"endTime":3002.93,"body":"when he became Conservative Party Leader,"},{"startTime":3004.08,"endTime":3006.17,"body":"more Leavers thought Boris Johnson"},{"startTime":3006.17,"endTime":3008.55,"body":"was doing a bad job as prime minister"},{"startTime":3008.55,"endTime":3010.96,"body":"than thought he was doing a"},{"startTime":3008.55,"endTime":3010.96,"body":"good job as prime minister."},{"startTime":3010.96,"endTime":3014.75,"body":"So one way of looking at"},{"startTime":3010.96,"endTime":3014.75,"body":"this is that competence"},{"startTime":3014.75,"endTime":3016.55,"body":"and economic management"},{"startTime":3014.75,"endTime":3016.55,"body":"and things like this"},{"startTime":3016.55,"endTime":3018.3,"body":"are starting to shape people's view,"},{"startTime":3018.3,"endTime":3021.64,"body":"the left-right stuff again,"},{"startTime":3018.3,"endTime":3021.64,"body":"in a way that they didn't"},{"startTime":3021.64,"endTime":3025.05,"body":"when we were in the heat"},{"startTime":3021.64,"endTime":3025.05,"body":"of the Brexit process."},{"startTime":3025.05,"endTime":3027.53,"body":"And one possibility is this is,"},{"startTime":3027.53,"endTime":3030.51,"body":"the Ipsos MORI Salience Index"},{"startTime":3030.51,"endTime":3031.343,"body":"where they asked people"},{"startTime":3031.343,"endTime":3034.303,"body":"what the biggest issues"},{"startTime":3031.343,"endTime":3034.303,"body":"facing the country are."},{"startTime":3035.26,"endTime":3038.43,"body":"As we get towards Easter"},{"startTime":3038.43,"endTime":3040.34,"body":"and the ending of the fuel price cap"},{"startTime":3041.19,"endTime":3043.59,"body":"and the potential of 6% inflation."},{"startTime":3043.59,"endTime":3046.36,"body":"It is perfectly possible"},{"startTime":3043.59,"endTime":3046.36,"body":"that the national economy"},{"startTime":3046.36,"endTime":3049.16,"body":"becomes the most important"},{"startTime":3046.36,"endTime":3049.16,"body":"issue in people's minds."},{"startTime":3049.16,"endTime":3052.23,"body":"Not COVID, not Brexit,"},{"startTime":3049.16,"endTime":3052.23,"body":"but the national economy."},{"startTime":3052.23,"endTime":3056.13,"body":"At that point, it is conceivable at least"},{"startTime":3056.13,"endTime":3058.93,"body":"that Brexit gets redefined."},{"startTime":3058.93,"endTime":3061.89,"body":"This partly depends on how"},{"startTime":3058.93,"endTime":3061.89,"body":"clever the Labour Party is."},{"startTime":3061.89,"endTime":3064.36,"body":"But Brexit gets redefined"},{"startTime":3061.89,"endTime":3064.36,"body":"not as a cultural issue,"},{"startTime":3064.36,"endTime":3066.05,"body":"but as an economic one."},{"startTime":3066.05,"endTime":3068.24,"body":"Brexit becomes part of a suite of care,"},{"startTime":3068.24,"endTime":3070.95,"body":"Starmer's attacks on the government"},{"startTime":3070.95,"endTime":3072.88,"body":"for putting in place economic policies"},{"startTime":3072.88,"endTime":3076.73,"body":"that have led to a cost of"},{"startTime":3072.88,"endTime":3076.73,"body":"living crisis in the country."},{"startTime":3076.73,"endTime":3078.45,"body":"If that happens,"},{"startTime":3078.45,"endTime":3082.32,"body":"then I think the Brexit debate can change"},{"startTime":3082.32,"endTime":3083.89,"body":"quite fundamentally in nature"},{"startTime":3083.89,"endTime":3085.92,"body":"and its impact on politics"},{"startTime":3085.92,"endTime":3088.28,"body":"can change quite fundamentally in nature."},{"startTime":3088.28,"endTime":3089.36,"body":"Whatever happens, though,"},{"startTime":3089.36,"endTime":3090.91,"body":"and I think if you think"},{"startTime":3089.36,"endTime":3090.91,"body":"back to those slides"},{"startTime":3090.91,"endTime":3093.92,"body":"about existing divisions in the UK public,"},{"startTime":3093.92,"endTime":3095.44,"body":"the fact is and I'm sorry if this isn't"},{"startTime":3095.44,"endTime":3096.6,"body":"what you want to hear,"},{"startTime":3096.6,"endTime":3100.05,"body":"that one way or another and"},{"startTime":3096.6,"endTime":3100.05,"body":"in a one guise or another,"},{"startTime":3100.05,"endTime":3102.52,"body":"Brexit is going to"},{"startTime":3100.05,"endTime":3102.52,"body":"continue to haunt our lives"},{"startTime":3102.52,"endTime":3105.69,"body":"in practical terms and in political terms"},{"startTime":3105.69,"endTime":3108.04,"body":"for many, many years to come."},{"startTime":3108.04,"endTime":3109.175,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3109.175,"endTime":3112.488,"body":"(audience applauds)"},{"startTime":3112.488,"endTime":3114.52,"body":"- I'm going to start"},{"startTime":3112.488,"endTime":3114.52,"body":"with a question online"},{"startTime":3114.52,"endTime":3118.08,"body":"that has got the most"},{"startTime":3114.52,"endTime":3118.08,"body":"number of votes which is,"},{"startTime":3118.08,"endTime":3121.09,"body":"what is the impact on our young people"},{"startTime":3121.09,"endTime":3123.68,"body":"in not having unfettered access"},{"startTime":3123.68,"endTime":3127.173,"body":"to work opportunities"},{"startTime":3123.68,"endTime":3127.173,"body":"in European countries?"},{"startTime":3128.45,"endTime":3130.17,"body":"- I think the question, in a sense,"},{"startTime":3130.17,"endTime":3131.91,"body":"the question answers itself."},{"startTime":3131.91,"endTime":3134.12,"body":"It's closed off opportunities"},{"startTime":3131.91,"endTime":3134.12,"body":"for our young people."},{"startTime":3134.12,"endTime":3135.83,"body":"We wait and see for what will happen"},{"startTime":3135.83,"endTime":3137.78,"body":"with the so-called Turing scheme,"},{"startTime":3137.78,"endTime":3138.79,"body":"which the government's brought in"},{"startTime":3138.79,"endTime":3141.833,"body":"to replace Erasmus for"},{"startTime":3138.79,"endTime":3141.833,"body":"university students."},{"startTime":3142.9,"endTime":3145.34,"body":"But I mean, it's mixed."},{"startTime":3145.34,"endTime":3146.21,"body":"People can still travel."},{"startTime":3146.21,"endTime":3148.41,"body":"You can still travel to"},{"startTime":3146.21,"endTime":3148.41,"body":"European countries easily."},{"startTime":3148.41,"endTime":3150.33,"body":"So there's no problem"},{"startTime":3148.41,"endTime":3150.33,"body":"about going on holiday."},{"startTime":3150.33,"endTime":3151.9,"body":"It's when you're going to do paid work"},{"startTime":3151.9,"endTime":3153.11,"body":"that it becomes more difficult."},{"startTime":3153.11,"endTime":3154.95,"body":"And in that sense, yes,"},{"startTime":3153.11,"endTime":3154.95,"body":"certain opportunities"},{"startTime":3154.95,"endTime":3158.11,"body":"are not going to be there"},{"startTime":3154.95,"endTime":3158.11,"body":"as easily as they were"},{"startTime":3158.11,"endTime":3160.32,"body":"when we were a member state"},{"startTime":3158.11,"endTime":3160.32,"body":"of the European Union."},{"startTime":3160.32,"endTime":3161.67,"body":"Equally, we can look at it the other way,"},{"startTime":3161.67,"endTime":3163.76,"body":"because for me one of the"},{"startTime":3161.67,"endTime":3163.76,"body":"things that's happening"},{"startTime":3163.76,"endTime":3167.09,"body":"that is real cause for concern"},{"startTime":3163.76,"endTime":3167.09,"body":"is the government announced"},{"startTime":3167.09,"endTime":3170.4,"body":"that it would no longer"},{"startTime":3167.09,"endTime":3170.4,"body":"accept EU identity cards"},{"startTime":3170.4,"endTime":3172.83,"body":"for travelers coming from the EU here."},{"startTime":3172.83,"endTime":3174.28,"body":"Lots of people in the European Union"},{"startTime":3174.28,"endTime":3176.31,"body":"only have identity cards"},{"startTime":3174.28,"endTime":3176.31,"body":"and don't have passports,"},{"startTime":3176.31,"endTime":3177.74,"body":"particularly young people."},{"startTime":3177.74,"endTime":3181.32,"body":"And what we're starting to see"},{"startTime":3177.74,"endTime":3181.32,"body":"already is a massive drop-off"},{"startTime":3181.32,"endTime":3184.72,"body":"in the number of school"},{"startTime":3181.32,"endTime":3184.72,"body":"trips from EU member states"},{"startTime":3184.72,"endTime":3186.72,"body":"to this country and I"},{"startTime":3184.72,"endTime":3186.72,"body":"think that's a shame."},{"startTime":3186.72,"endTime":3188.128,"body":"- [Man] So much to talk about,"},{"startTime":3188.128,"endTime":3190.29,"body":"about one of the things you said."},{"startTime":3190.29,"endTime":3193.0,"body":"With a positive view of things,"},{"startTime":3193.0,"endTime":3195.38,"body":"which is the reason"},{"startTime":3193.0,"endTime":3195.38,"body":"why I voted for Brexit,"},{"startTime":3195.38,"endTime":3197.76,"body":"not anti but pro a number of things;"},{"startTime":3197.76,"endTime":3200.6,"body":"the freedom, the replowing"},{"startTime":3197.76,"endTime":3200.6,"body":"of the soil, if you like,"},{"startTime":3200.6,"endTime":3202.11,"body":"that fertility."},{"startTime":3202.11,"endTime":3206.64,"body":"Where you said about the north"},{"startTime":3206.64,"endTime":3211.64,"body":"and that imbalance, the"},{"startTime":3206.64,"endTime":3211.64,"body":"scope, in many dynamics"},{"startTime":3212.81,"endTime":3215.15,"body":"you could see that an organism"},{"startTime":3216.76,"endTime":3219.313,"body":"is as strong as its weakest part."},{"startTime":3220.59,"endTime":3223.36,"body":"And if we've got a large"},{"startTime":3220.59,"endTime":3223.36,"body":"part which is weak,"},{"startTime":3223.36,"endTime":3227.71,"body":"then with a positive view,"},{"startTime":3223.36,"endTime":3227.71,"body":"if that equality equals out"},{"startTime":3227.71,"endTime":3229.67,"body":"then are there forecasts of what"},{"startTime":3229.67,"endTime":3233.16,"body":"then that stronger overall organism,"},{"startTime":3233.16,"endTime":3234.93,"body":"if you like, could go to?"},{"startTime":3234.93,"endTime":3239.93,"body":"Because in theory, we're"},{"startTime":3234.93,"endTime":3239.93,"body":"more capable then of higher"},{"startTime":3239.96,"endTime":3242.26,"body":"and broader things longer term."},{"startTime":3242.26,"endTime":3243.093,"body":"Does that make sense?"},{"startTime":3243.093,"endTime":3243.926,"body":"- Yeah, it does."},{"startTime":3243.926,"endTime":3246.01,"body":"But I'm not sure about"},{"startTime":3243.926,"endTime":3246.01,"body":"economic forecasts per se,"},{"startTime":3246.01,"endTime":3248.13,"body":"but I mean intuitively"},{"startTime":3246.01,"endTime":3248.13,"body":"common sense tells you"},{"startTime":3248.13,"endTime":3250.84,"body":"that if some of the areas in this country"},{"startTime":3250.84,"endTime":3252.83,"body":"that aren't productive,"},{"startTime":3252.83,"endTime":3254.64,"body":"where productivity rates are very low,"},{"startTime":3254.64,"endTime":3256.25,"body":"that aren't economically successful,"},{"startTime":3256.25,"endTime":3257.96,"body":"if we can tap into the talent there"},{"startTime":3257.96,"endTime":3260.7,"body":"and make them economically"},{"startTime":3257.96,"endTime":3260.7,"body":"successful, we will all benefit."},{"startTime":3260.7,"endTime":3262.44,"body":"I mean think about kids and education."},{"startTime":3262.44,"endTime":3264.4,"body":"You know your life chances are determined,"},{"startTime":3264.4,"endTime":3266.98,"body":"to a degree that is scandalous"},{"startTime":3264.4,"endTime":3266.98,"body":"in the 21st century,"},{"startTime":3266.98,"endTime":3269.57,"body":"by where you're born in this country."},{"startTime":3269.57,"endTime":3271.72,"body":"If every kid had the opportunity to go"},{"startTime":3271.72,"endTime":3274.0,"body":"and have a world-class education"},{"startTime":3271.72,"endTime":3274.0,"body":"and to go to university,"},{"startTime":3274.0,"endTime":3276.83,"body":"if they wanted and to"},{"startTime":3274.0,"endTime":3276.83,"body":"achieve their full potential,"},{"startTime":3276.83,"endTime":3278.12,"body":"the country as a whole would benefit."},{"startTime":3278.12,"endTime":3280.46,"body":"I mean the country would"},{"startTime":3278.12,"endTime":3280.46,"body":"be a better country"},{"startTime":3280.46,"endTime":3282.59,"body":"if all the best people could"},{"startTime":3280.46,"endTime":3282.59,"body":"accomplish their potential."},{"startTime":3282.59,"endTime":3285.41,"body":"At the moment, because of the"},{"startTime":3282.59,"endTime":3285.41,"body":"socioeconomic differences,"},{"startTime":3285.41,"endTime":3286.243,"body":"that's not the case."},{"startTime":3286.243,"endTime":3287.76,"body":"Actually, what you said about the soil"},{"startTime":3287.76,"endTime":3290.64,"body":"made me say one thing, the aggregates,"},{"startTime":3290.64,"endTime":3292.33,"body":"I mean I'll stand by the aggregates"},{"startTime":3292.33,"endTime":3293.76,"body":"I've given you in terms of economics."},{"startTime":3293.76,"endTime":3295.43,"body":"But there are some policy areas"},{"startTime":3295.43,"endTime":3297.74,"body":"where we should absolutely"},{"startTime":3295.43,"endTime":3297.74,"body":"be able to do things"},{"startTime":3297.74,"endTime":3300.48,"body":"infinitely better out"},{"startTime":3297.74,"endTime":3300.48,"body":"of the European Union"},{"startTime":3300.48,"endTime":3301.313,"body":"than we could in it."},{"startTime":3301.313,"endTime":3302.64,"body":"And one area where we're doing it,"},{"startTime":3302.64,"endTime":3305.62,"body":"I think at the moment, is agriculture"},{"startTime":3305.62,"endTime":3308.48,"body":"where actually the new system"},{"startTime":3305.62,"endTime":3308.48,"body":"of subsidizing agriculture"},{"startTime":3308.48,"endTime":3311.29,"body":"which is based on providing public goods,"},{"startTime":3311.29,"endTime":3312.66,"body":"like environmental goals,"},{"startTime":3312.66,"endTime":3314.65,"body":"rather than on simply"},{"startTime":3312.66,"endTime":3314.65,"body":"producing more and more,"},{"startTime":3314.65,"endTime":3318.31,"body":"which is the EU incentive"},{"startTime":3314.65,"endTime":3318.31,"body":"scheme, is far superior."},{"startTime":3318.31,"endTime":3319.62,"body":"So I wasn't trying to imply in any way"},{"startTime":3319.62,"endTime":3322.15,"body":"that there aren't things"},{"startTime":3319.62,"endTime":3322.15,"body":"that we could gain from."},{"startTime":3322.15,"endTime":3324.22,"body":"All I'm saying is in"},{"startTime":3322.15,"endTime":3324.22,"body":"terms of the net economy"},{"startTime":3324.22,"endTime":3326.77,"body":"don't expect it to make"},{"startTime":3324.22,"endTime":3326.77,"body":"us more prosperous,"},{"startTime":3326.77,"endTime":3328.25,"body":"but it might make us do certain things"},{"startTime":3328.25,"endTime":3329.48,"body":"in certain areas better."},{"startTime":3329.48,"endTime":3330.8,"body":"And I hope, actually, on the leveling up,"},{"startTime":3330.8,"endTime":3331.96,"body":"that is one of those areas."},{"startTime":3331.96,"endTime":3335.805,"body":"- Will the Northern"},{"startTime":3331.96,"endTime":3335.805,"body":"Ireland Protocol survive?"},{"startTime":3335.805,"endTime":3337.73,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":3337.73,"endTime":3338.88,"body":"Oh, it's a good question."},{"startTime":3338.88,"endTime":3340.58,"body":"- I mean I could just toss a coin."},{"startTime":3342.53,"endTime":3344.92,"body":"I mean at the best of"},{"startTime":3342.53,"endTime":3344.92,"body":"times, it's hard to know"},{"startTime":3344.92,"endTime":3346.38,"body":"and this really isn't the best of,"},{"startTime":3346.38,"endTime":3347.69,"body":"we don't know who's going"},{"startTime":3346.38,"endTime":3347.69,"body":"to be prime minister"},{"startTime":3347.69,"endTime":3349.42,"body":"in two months time."},{"startTime":3349.42,"endTime":3351.71,"body":"And ultimately, the fate of"},{"startTime":3349.42,"endTime":3351.71,"body":"the Northern Ireland Protocol"},{"startTime":3351.71,"endTime":3353.49,"body":"depends on what the"},{"startTime":3351.71,"endTime":3353.49,"body":"prime minister decides."},{"startTime":3353.49,"endTime":3354.35,"body":"And one of the reasons why"},{"startTime":3354.35,"endTime":3356.49,"body":"I couldn't have answered"},{"startTime":3354.35,"endTime":3356.49,"body":"that question in November"},{"startTime":3356.49,"endTime":3359.66,"body":"or December was for everything"},{"startTime":3356.49,"endTime":3359.66,"body":"that David Frost said,"},{"startTime":3359.66,"endTime":3361.93,"body":"there was a sense that"},{"startTime":3359.66,"endTime":3361.93,"body":"ultimately the prime minister"},{"startTime":3361.93,"endTime":3365.82,"body":"would decide, Article"},{"startTime":3361.93,"endTime":3365.82,"body":"16 and suspend the thing"},{"startTime":3365.82,"endTime":3367.71,"body":"or sign up to it with compromises."},{"startTime":3367.71,"endTime":3369.32,"body":"Boris Johnson needs to make his mind up."},{"startTime":3369.32,"endTime":3370.87,"body":"He's given very little sign."},{"startTime":3370.87,"endTime":3374.29,"body":"He said in Parliament"},{"startTime":3370.87,"endTime":3374.29,"body":"today, in PMQs actually,"},{"startTime":3374.29,"endTime":3378.187,"body":"that the EU was implementing"},{"startTime":3374.29,"endTime":3378.187,"body":"the Protocol in an"},{"startTime":3378.187,"endTime":3379.9,"body":"\"insane and pettifogging way\","},{"startTime":3379.9,"endTime":3381.51,"body":"I think were the words he used."},{"startTime":3381.51,"endTime":3384.17,"body":"So it shows that he's still"},{"startTime":3381.51,"endTime":3384.17,"body":"willing to fight over this,"},{"startTime":3384.17,"endTime":3386.24,"body":"but whether he ultimately will compromise,"},{"startTime":3386.24,"endTime":3387.25,"body":"I just don't know."},{"startTime":3387.25,"endTime":3388.263,"body":"I'm not convinced he knows as yet,"},{"startTime":3388.263,"endTime":3390.29,"body":"because I suspect he's got other stuff"},{"startTime":3390.29,"endTime":3391.22,"body":"on his mind this evening"},{"startTime":3391.22,"endTime":3393.02,"body":"than the Northern Ireland."},{"startTime":3391.22,"endTime":3393.02,"body":"(audience laughs)"},{"startTime":3393.02,"endTime":3394.17,"body":"So I'm not sure he's giving it"},{"startTime":3394.17,"endTime":3395.47,"body":"much time of day at the moment."},{"startTime":3395.47,"endTime":3400.47,"body":"My sense is it was always"},{"startTime":3395.47,"endTime":3400.47,"body":"the case that people said,"},{"startTime":3400.57,"endTime":3402.63,"body":"there's a deadline for getting"},{"startTime":3400.57,"endTime":3402.63,"body":"this done, which is March."},{"startTime":3402.63,"endTime":3404.3,"body":"Because in March, the campaign starts"},{"startTime":3404.3,"endTime":3406.12,"body":"for the Stormont elections in May."},{"startTime":3406.12,"endTime":3407.68,"body":"I suspect we're going"},{"startTime":3406.12,"endTime":3407.68,"body":"to miss that deadline."},{"startTime":3407.68,"endTime":3409.05,"body":"And the sooner we miss that deadline,"},{"startTime":3409.05,"endTime":3411.63,"body":"then actually everything gets put on hold"},{"startTime":3411.63,"endTime":3414.42,"body":"until after those"},{"startTime":3411.63,"endTime":3414.42,"body":"Stormont elections in May."},{"startTime":3414.42,"endTime":3416.53,"body":"Then if you end up with Sinn"},{"startTime":3414.42,"endTime":3416.53,"body":"Fein as the biggest party,"},{"startTime":3416.53,"endTime":3417.94,"body":"you've got a whole new political"},{"startTime":3416.53,"endTime":3417.94,"body":"landscape to deal with."},{"startTime":3417.94,"endTime":3420.23,"body":"And then things get, if anything,"},{"startTime":3420.23,"endTime":3422.51,"body":"slightly more difficult rather than less."},{"startTime":3422.51,"endTime":3423.43,"body":"- [Woman] You covered it slightly"},{"startTime":3423.43,"endTime":3424.82,"body":"when you mentioned social issues."},{"startTime":3424.82,"endTime":3429.0,"body":"But what do you think was"},{"startTime":3424.82,"endTime":3429.0,"body":"the impact that Brexit had"},{"startTime":3429.0,"endTime":3431.42,"body":"or possibly still does have on xenophobia"},{"startTime":3431.42,"endTime":3432.47,"body":"within the country?"},{"startTime":3432.47,"endTime":3433.303,"body":"- On?"},{"startTime":3433.303,"endTime":3434.84,"body":"- [Woman] Xenophobia."},{"startTime":3434.84,"endTime":3437.36,"body":"- Uh well, it's a really"},{"startTime":3434.84,"endTime":3437.36,"body":"interesting question."},{"startTime":3437.36,"endTime":3438.193,"body":"There was definitely,"},{"startTime":3438.193,"endTime":3440.28,"body":"I mean the police records seem to indicate"},{"startTime":3440.28,"endTime":3442.12,"body":"that there was a spike in racist incidents"},{"startTime":3442.12,"endTime":3443.55,"body":"after the referendum."},{"startTime":3443.55,"endTime":3445.31,"body":"And you know, I'm willing to believe that,"},{"startTime":3445.31,"endTime":3446.42,"body":"that was the case."},{"startTime":3446.42,"endTime":3450.84,"body":"But if you look at the aggregate"},{"startTime":3446.42,"endTime":3450.84,"body":"data of public opinion,"},{"startTime":3450.84,"endTime":3453.7,"body":"what you found since the referendum is,"},{"startTime":3453.7,"endTime":3456.42,"body":"one, immigration has dropped down"},{"startTime":3456.42,"endTime":3459.94,"body":"the list of issues of"},{"startTime":3456.42,"endTime":3459.94,"body":"salience to the British public"},{"startTime":3459.94,"endTime":3461.53,"body":"in a way you could not believe."},{"startTime":3461.53,"endTime":3462.46,"body":"I mean just think about it,"},{"startTime":3462.46,"endTime":3464.19,"body":"I mean we didn't think"},{"startTime":3462.46,"endTime":3464.19,"body":"about it enough at the time."},{"startTime":3464.19,"endTime":3467.52,"body":"In 2017 and 2019 in those elections,"},{"startTime":3467.52,"endTime":3470.433,"body":"we never ever mentioned immigration."},{"startTime":3471.47,"endTime":3473.371,"body":"When's that been true?"},{"startTime":3473.371,"endTime":3475.52,"body":"Well not since 2001, probably."},{"startTime":3475.52,"endTime":3477.24,"body":"Immigration has always been in the top two"},{"startTime":3477.24,"endTime":3478.073,"body":"or three issues."},{"startTime":3478.073,"endTime":3479.38,"body":"So that's the first thing that happened."},{"startTime":3479.38,"endTime":3480.4,"body":"The other thing that's happened"},{"startTime":3480.4,"endTime":3483.69,"body":"that's probably more striking"},{"startTime":3480.4,"endTime":3483.69,"body":"is since the referendum,"},{"startTime":3483.69,"endTime":3486.83,"body":"the views of the British"},{"startTime":3483.69,"endTime":3486.83,"body":"public on immigration"},{"startTime":3486.83,"endTime":3490.2,"body":"have become more positive in"},{"startTime":3486.83,"endTime":3490.2,"body":"terms of both its economic"},{"startTime":3490.2,"endTime":3491.97,"body":"and its cultural impact."},{"startTime":3491.97,"endTime":3495.02,"body":"There's been a liberalization"},{"startTime":3491.97,"endTime":3495.02,"body":"of UK public opinion"},{"startTime":3495.02,"endTime":3497.65,"body":"on immigration since the referendum"},{"startTime":3498.77,"endTime":3500.03,"body":"that's continued through COVID."},{"startTime":3500.03,"endTime":3501.62,"body":"There are other reasons related to COVID,"},{"startTime":3501.62,"endTime":3503.98,"body":"I think, that might explain"},{"startTime":3501.62,"endTime":3503.98,"body":"why it's being continuing"},{"startTime":3503.98,"endTime":3506.16,"body":"or even strengthening during the pandemic."},{"startTime":3506.16,"endTime":3508.91,"body":"But this throws up an"},{"startTime":3506.16,"endTime":3508.91,"body":"interesting question, doesn't it?"},{"startTime":3510.32,"endTime":3512.73,"body":"On the surface, if you just look at it"},{"startTime":3512.73,"endTime":3516.01,"body":"sort of simplistically,"},{"startTime":3512.73,"endTime":3516.01,"body":"freedom of movement is weird."},{"startTime":3516.01,"endTime":3517.63,"body":"Freedom of movement is"},{"startTime":3516.01,"endTime":3517.63,"body":"weird because it means"},{"startTime":3517.63,"endTime":3519.244,"body":"that your government no longer controls"},{"startTime":3519.244,"endTime":3521.32,"body":"who comes into your country, okay."},{"startTime":3521.32,"endTime":3523.84,"body":"And that, compared to"},{"startTime":3521.32,"endTime":3523.84,"body":"other parts of the world,"},{"startTime":3523.84,"endTime":3525.45,"body":"is a strange situation."},{"startTime":3525.45,"endTime":3529.17,"body":"It may be that, actually,"},{"startTime":3525.45,"endTime":3529.17,"body":"because the UK government"},{"startTime":3529.17,"endTime":3531.95,"body":"now controls who comes into this country,"},{"startTime":3531.95,"endTime":3534.05,"body":"people are more relaxed about it."},{"startTime":3534.05,"endTime":3535.25,"body":"I'm not saying that's definitely true,"},{"startTime":3535.25,"endTime":3538.32,"body":"but you have had a very, very clear"},{"startTime":3538.32,"endTime":3541.44,"body":"and unambiguous shift in public attitudes"},{"startTime":3541.44,"endTime":3543.323,"body":"to immigration since the referendum."},{"startTime":3544.44,"endTime":3546.66,"body":"- Well, Professor Menon, I'm"},{"startTime":3544.44,"endTime":3546.66,"body":"sure we could go on all night"},{"startTime":3546.66,"endTime":3548.66,"body":"for this fascinating debate,"},{"startTime":3548.66,"endTime":3549.95,"body":"but I'm afraid we have"},{"startTime":3548.66,"endTime":3549.95,"body":"to draw it to close."},{"startTime":3549.95,"endTime":3551.16,"body":"And we'd like to thank you very much"},{"startTime":3551.16,"endTime":3552.21,"body":"for a tremendous lecture."},{"startTime":3552.21,"endTime":3553.33,"body":"Thank you."},{"startTime":3552.21,"endTime":3553.33,"body":"- Thank you very much."},{"startTime":3553.33,"endTime":3556.413,"body":"(audience applauds)"}]}