{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.15,"endTime":4.46,"body":"- In April 2009, the leaders"},{"startTime":0.15,"endTime":4.46,"body":"of the world's major economies,"},{"startTime":4.46,"endTime":8.56,"body":"the group of 20, met in"},{"startTime":4.46,"endTime":8.56,"body":"London under the chairmanship"},{"startTime":8.56,"endTime":11.143,"body":"of the British Prime"},{"startTime":8.56,"endTime":11.143,"body":"Minister, Gordon Brown."},{"startTime":12.23,"endTime":13.64,"body":"It was a critical time,"},{"startTime":13.64,"endTime":16.86,"body":"a year after the global financial crisis."},{"startTime":16.86,"endTime":18.92,"body":"And Gordon Brown turned to the past"},{"startTime":18.92,"endTime":21.48,"body":"as inspiration and warning."},{"startTime":21.48,"endTime":25.9,"body":"As he said, there was a world"},{"startTime":21.48,"endTime":25.9,"body":"economic conference in 1933"},{"startTime":25.9,"endTime":28.08,"body":"and it took place in Britain."},{"startTime":28.08,"endTime":31.57,"body":"People came to London to get"},{"startTime":28.08,"endTime":31.57,"body":"agreement, partly on trade,"},{"startTime":31.57,"endTime":35.76,"body":"partly on other aspects"},{"startTime":31.57,"endTime":35.76,"body":"of the economy, it failed."},{"startTime":35.76,"endTime":38.35,"body":"And partly as a result of that failure,"},{"startTime":38.35,"endTime":42.003,"body":"the rest of the thirties was"},{"startTime":38.35,"endTime":42.003,"body":"blighted by protectionism."},{"startTime":43.7,"endTime":46.21,"body":"I started the first of my three lectures"},{"startTime":46.21,"endTime":49.443,"body":"with that failed meeting"},{"startTime":46.21,"endTime":49.443,"body":"in London in 1933."},{"startTime":50.36,"endTime":54.07,"body":"And the question was,"},{"startTime":50.36,"endTime":54.07,"body":"whether the meeting in 2009"},{"startTime":54.07,"endTime":56.103,"body":"would be any more successful."},{"startTime":57.23,"endTime":60.74,"body":"The G20 faced demonstrations"},{"startTime":60.74,"endTime":63.55,"body":"and the world was again,"},{"startTime":60.74,"endTime":63.55,"body":"teetering on the brink"},{"startTime":63.55,"endTime":66.42,"body":"of a second great depression."},{"startTime":66.42,"endTime":69.04,"body":"It seemed as if trade"},{"startTime":66.42,"endTime":69.04,"body":"and industrial production"},{"startTime":69.04,"endTime":71.72,"body":"was falling as rapidly as it had"},{"startTime":71.72,"endTime":73.803,"body":"after the onset of the great depression."},{"startTime":75.2,"endTime":77.72,"body":"But then, just as the"},{"startTime":75.2,"endTime":77.72,"body":"meetings were being held"},{"startTime":77.72,"endTime":82.34,"body":"in London in April 2009,"},{"startTime":77.72,"endTime":82.34,"body":"matters started to improve."},{"startTime":82.34,"endTime":85.33,"body":"Trade and industrial production increased."},{"startTime":85.33,"endTime":89.533,"body":"And there was not a turn to"},{"startTime":85.33,"endTime":89.533,"body":"protectionism as in the 1930s."},{"startTime":90.92,"endTime":93.93,"body":"Many economists heaved the sigh of relief"},{"startTime":93.93,"endTime":96.22,"body":"that the multi natural"},{"startTime":93.93,"endTime":96.22,"body":"institutions created"},{"startTime":96.22,"endTime":98.63,"body":"after the second world war had stopped"},{"startTime":98.63,"endTime":101.12,"body":"a slide into trade warfare."},{"startTime":101.12,"endTime":103.94,"body":"Some even envisaged, a new world,"},{"startTime":103.94,"endTime":106.01,"body":"an end of great power conflict,"},{"startTime":106.01,"endTime":108.72,"body":"the growth of economic independence,"},{"startTime":108.72,"endTime":112.02,"body":"the incorporation of Russia and China,"},{"startTime":112.02,"endTime":113.47,"body":"and a willingness of other countries"},{"startTime":113.47,"endTime":115.63,"body":"to allow the United States to operate"},{"startTime":115.63,"endTime":118.233,"body":"as what they called a Liberal Leviathan."},{"startTime":119.22,"endTime":124.22,"body":"Well, today in 2022, these"},{"startTime":119.22,"endTime":124.22,"body":"predictions appear rather naive."},{"startTime":126.41,"endTime":129.12,"body":"What I want to argue"},{"startTime":126.41,"endTime":129.12,"body":"in this lecture is that"},{"startTime":129.12,"endTime":134.12,"body":"the seeming success in stopping"},{"startTime":129.12,"endTime":134.12,"body":"this slide into depression,"},{"startTime":134.62,"endTime":139.01,"body":"masked rather than solved deeper problems."},{"startTime":139.01,"endTime":143.69,"body":"The result was new difficulties"},{"startTime":139.01,"endTime":143.69,"body":"of populous politics"},{"startTime":143.69,"endTime":147.323,"body":"and a lack of resilience in"},{"startTime":143.69,"endTime":147.323,"body":"the face of the pandemic."},{"startTime":148.35,"endTime":152.17,"body":"The failure to reform"},{"startTime":148.35,"endTime":152.17,"body":"capitalism in a decade"},{"startTime":152.17,"endTime":154.69,"body":"after the global financial crisis,"},{"startTime":154.69,"endTime":157.95,"body":"meant that neoliberalism continued."},{"startTime":157.95,"endTime":162.17,"body":"I defined neoliberalism as"},{"startTime":157.95,"endTime":162.17,"body":"a set of policies defined"},{"startTime":162.17,"endTime":164.89,"body":"by fiscal and monetary discipline,"},{"startTime":164.89,"endTime":168.11,"body":"tax reform to reduce marginal rates,"},{"startTime":168.11,"endTime":172.15,"body":"financial liberalization,"},{"startTime":168.11,"endTime":172.15,"body":"and free flows of capital"},{"startTime":172.15,"endTime":176.1,"body":"and privatization and"},{"startTime":172.15,"endTime":176.1,"body":"deregulation of business"},{"startTime":176.1,"endTime":178.943,"body":"with a belief in the"},{"startTime":176.1,"endTime":178.943,"body":"efficiency of the market."},{"startTime":179.96,"endTime":184.48,"body":"The question now is whether the"},{"startTime":179.96,"endTime":184.48,"body":"pandemic will mark the point"},{"startTime":184.48,"endTime":188.09,"body":"at which a new global"},{"startTime":184.48,"endTime":188.09,"body":"economic order emerges"},{"startTime":188.09,"endTime":190.75,"body":"as it did after the second world war"},{"startTime":190.75,"endTime":193.01,"body":"and again in the 1970s,"},{"startTime":193.01,"endTime":195.513,"body":"as I argued in my previous two lectures."},{"startTime":196.71,"endTime":200.733,"body":"And if a new form does emerge,"},{"startTime":196.71,"endTime":200.733,"body":"what would it look like?"},{"startTime":201.86,"endTime":204.82,"body":"Will the result be a"},{"startTime":201.86,"endTime":204.82,"body":"decline of globalization"},{"startTime":204.82,"endTime":208.32,"body":"and a turn to self sufficiency"},{"startTime":204.82,"endTime":208.32,"body":"and regional blocks"},{"startTime":208.32,"endTime":211.61,"body":"as happened after 1933,"},{"startTime":211.61,"endTime":214.38,"body":"or a more balanced relationship"},{"startTime":214.38,"endTime":217.47,"body":"between global and national economies"},{"startTime":217.47,"endTime":220.163,"body":"as happened after 1945?"},{"startTime":222.2,"endTime":226.02,"body":"Well let me start by"},{"startTime":222.2,"endTime":226.02,"body":"asking how governments,"},{"startTime":226.02,"endTime":229.633,"body":"did respond to the"},{"startTime":226.02,"endTime":229.633,"body":"global financial crisis."},{"startTime":232.75,"endTime":237.66,"body":"Shortly before the G20 met"},{"startTime":232.75,"endTime":237.66,"body":"in London in April 2009,"},{"startTime":237.66,"endTime":242.0,"body":"the G20 had met in November 2008,"},{"startTime":242.0,"endTime":244.81,"body":"when it pledged to use fiscal measures"},{"startTime":244.81,"endTime":248.653,"body":"to stimulate domestic"},{"startTime":244.81,"endTime":248.653,"body":"demand to rapid effect."},{"startTime":250.25,"endTime":253.993,"body":"And that commitment was"},{"startTime":250.25,"endTime":253.993,"body":"renewed in April 2009."},{"startTime":254.88,"endTime":257.447,"body":"Gordon Brown proclaimed, I quote,"},{"startTime":257.447,"endTime":260.48,"body":"\"this is the day that"},{"startTime":257.447,"endTime":260.48,"body":"the world came together"},{"startTime":260.48,"endTime":263.27,"body":"to fight for session, not with words,"},{"startTime":263.27,"endTime":266.947,"body":"but with a plan for global"},{"startTime":263.27,"endTime":266.947,"body":"recovery and reform.\""},{"startTime":268.0,"endTime":271.333,"body":"There was talk of a"},{"startTime":268.0,"endTime":271.333,"body":"return to keynesianism."},{"startTime":272.92,"endTime":276.22,"body":"Well, the German government"},{"startTime":272.92,"endTime":276.22,"body":"was not sympathetic."},{"startTime":276.22,"endTime":279.94,"body":"The German finance minister"},{"startTime":276.22,"endTime":279.94,"body":"criticized Gordon Brown's"},{"startTime":279.94,"endTime":282.3,"body":"class keynesianism as he called it"},{"startTime":282.3,"endTime":285.27,"body":"for tossing around billions,"},{"startTime":285.27,"endTime":287.903,"body":"that would burden future generations."},{"startTime":288.87,"endTime":292.21,"body":"Closer to home Gordon"},{"startTime":288.87,"endTime":292.21,"body":"Brown's approach was rejected"},{"startTime":292.21,"endTime":295.9,"body":"by Mervyn King governor"},{"startTime":292.21,"endTime":295.9,"body":"of the Bank of England,"},{"startTime":295.9,"endTime":298.84,"body":"who worried that a fiscal"},{"startTime":295.9,"endTime":298.84,"body":"stimulus would increase"},{"startTime":298.84,"endTime":301.6,"body":"the size of the government's deficit,"},{"startTime":301.6,"endTime":304.1,"body":"boost consumption and hinder,"},{"startTime":304.1,"endTime":306.41,"body":"the long term need as he saw it"},{"startTime":306.41,"endTime":310.383,"body":"for the British and American"},{"startTime":306.41,"endTime":310.383,"body":"economies to save and invest."},{"startTime":311.24,"endTime":313.31,"body":"This intervention was condemned"},{"startTime":313.31,"endTime":317.43,"body":"by one slightly overheated lib dem MP"},{"startTime":317.43,"endTime":319.937,"body":"as a very British couped attack."},{"startTime":322.46,"endTime":325.76,"body":"The story of the response"},{"startTime":322.46,"endTime":325.76,"body":"to global financial crisis"},{"startTime":325.76,"endTime":328.71,"body":"is the defeat of this fiscal stimulus,"},{"startTime":328.71,"endTime":331.74,"body":"both in the United States and in Britain,"},{"startTime":331.74,"endTime":334.14,"body":"after a short experiment,."},{"startTime":334.14,"endTime":337.32,"body":"Instead, there was a turn to austerity"},{"startTime":337.32,"endTime":339.49,"body":"or what was euphemistically called,"},{"startTime":339.49,"endTime":342.6,"body":"expansionary fiscal contraction."},{"startTime":342.6,"endTime":345.6,"body":"That is the belief that the impact of cuts"},{"startTime":345.6,"endTime":349.82,"body":"in public spending on"},{"startTime":345.6,"endTime":349.82,"body":"consumption would be outweighed"},{"startTime":349.82,"endTime":352.073,"body":"by gains in economic confidence."},{"startTime":353.26,"endTime":356.78,"body":"In June 2010, the G20,"},{"startTime":356.78,"endTime":359.88,"body":"now announced a commitment"},{"startTime":356.78,"endTime":359.88,"body":"to what it called,"},{"startTime":359.88,"endTime":362.963,"body":"growth friendly fiscal consolidation."},{"startTime":364.65,"endTime":369.65,"body":"So the question to ask is, why"},{"startTime":364.65,"endTime":369.65,"body":"was fiscal stimulus rejected"},{"startTime":369.98,"endTime":374.94,"body":"between acceptance in 2009"},{"startTime":369.98,"endTime":374.94,"body":"and rejection in 2010."},{"startTime":377.46,"endTime":380.59,"body":"In a recent BBC documentary Nick Clegg"},{"startTime":380.59,"endTime":383.66,"body":"who was Deputy Prime Minister in 2010,"},{"startTime":383.66,"endTime":385.6,"body":"said that one of the greatest myths"},{"startTime":385.6,"endTime":389.13,"body":"about economic policy is"},{"startTime":385.6,"endTime":389.13,"body":"that there ever was a dispute"},{"startTime":389.13,"endTime":391.403,"body":"about whether fiscal savings were needed."},{"startTime":392.38,"endTime":393.443,"body":"Well, he's wrong."},{"startTime":395.46,"endTime":400.03,"body":"Fiscal cuts, austerity was contested."},{"startTime":400.03,"endTime":404.38,"body":"And the real question is why"},{"startTime":400.03,"endTime":404.38,"body":"critics were marginalized."},{"startTime":404.38,"endTime":408.15,"body":"The belief that cuts were"},{"startTime":404.38,"endTime":408.15,"body":"necessary was constructed"},{"startTime":408.15,"endTime":412.943,"body":"by various rhetorical devices"},{"startTime":408.15,"endTime":412.943,"body":"and ideological assumptions."},{"startTime":414.04,"endTime":416.843,"body":"Let me explain what these were."},{"startTime":418.44,"endTime":421.613,"body":"The first relates to economists."},{"startTime":422.63,"endTime":426.013,"body":"They argued, the fiscal"},{"startTime":422.63,"endTime":426.013,"body":"stimulus would be harmful."},{"startTime":427.58,"endTime":431.631,"body":"One such economist was Alberto Alesina,"},{"startTime":431.631,"endTime":433.59,"body":"who argued that cuttings"},{"startTime":431.631,"endTime":433.59,"body":"who argue that cut spending"},{"startTime":433.59,"endTime":435.76,"body":"to reduce the budget deficit"},{"startTime":435.76,"endTime":437.87,"body":"would remove economic uncertainty,"},{"startTime":437.87,"endTime":440.8,"body":"would restore confidence,"},{"startTime":437.87,"endTime":440.8,"body":"would encourage investment"},{"startTime":440.8,"endTime":443.14,"body":"and avoid an unfair distribution"},{"startTime":443.14,"endTime":445.853,"body":"between present and future generations."},{"startTime":446.76,"endTime":448.51,"body":"He believed that cut in spending"},{"startTime":448.51,"endTime":450.43,"body":"would lead to increased output,"},{"startTime":450.43,"endTime":453.01,"body":"because gains to private"},{"startTime":450.43,"endTime":453.01,"body":"consumption investment"},{"startTime":453.01,"endTime":456.18,"body":"were larger than cuts"},{"startTime":453.01,"endTime":456.18,"body":"in government spending."},{"startTime":456.18,"endTime":459.42,"body":"So the ideologic assumption"},{"startTime":456.18,"endTime":459.42,"body":"here was, that public spending"},{"startTime":459.42,"endTime":463.123,"body":"is always less efficient and"},{"startTime":459.42,"endTime":463.123,"body":"drives out private investment."},{"startTime":465.26,"endTime":468.449,"body":"But even more important was the so-called,"},{"startTime":468.449,"endTime":473.449,"body":"90% rule of Carmen"},{"startTime":468.449,"endTime":473.449,"body":"Reinhart and Ken Rogoff."},{"startTime":473.64,"endTime":476.41,"body":"They claimed in this historical data,"},{"startTime":476.41,"endTime":481.41,"body":"that debt level debt to GDP"},{"startTime":476.41,"endTime":481.41,"body":"level above 90% led to a fall"},{"startTime":483.04,"endTime":487.52,"body":"in the median growth"},{"startTime":483.04,"endTime":487.52,"body":"rate by 1% and even more"},{"startTime":487.52,"endTime":489.083,"body":"in the average rate."},{"startTime":490.59,"endTime":493.773,"body":"Now, these arguments were"},{"startTime":490.59,"endTime":493.773,"body":"taken up by politicians."},{"startTime":494.91,"endTime":497.78,"body":"Paul Ryan, the Republican chairman"},{"startTime":497.78,"endTime":500.25,"body":"of the house committee on the budget,"},{"startTime":500.25,"endTime":505.25,"body":"drew a stark choice between"},{"startTime":500.25,"endTime":505.25,"body":"two paths to the future,"},{"startTime":505.62,"endTime":507.903,"body":"two paths to prosperity."},{"startTime":508.9,"endTime":513.77,"body":"One was to cut, and that"},{"startTime":508.9,"endTime":513.77,"body":"would lead to prosperity"},{"startTime":515.56,"endTime":518.16,"body":"on the green part of the slide."},{"startTime":518.16,"endTime":520.88,"body":"But if you went on as now exponentially,"},{"startTime":520.88,"endTime":523.363,"body":"it would go up and"},{"startTime":520.88,"endTime":523.363,"body":"there would be disaster."},{"startTime":524.75,"endTime":528.33,"body":"This view was powerfully"},{"startTime":524.75,"endTime":528.33,"body":"expressed by the Tea Party,"},{"startTime":528.33,"endTime":532.32,"body":"but also in Britain in"},{"startTime":528.33,"endTime":532.32,"body":"2010, George Osborne,"},{"startTime":532.32,"endTime":534.92,"body":"who was shorted become"},{"startTime":532.32,"endTime":534.92,"body":"Chancellor Exchequer,"},{"startTime":534.92,"endTime":537.39,"body":"referred to Reinhart and Rogoff"},{"startTime":537.39,"endTime":539.52,"body":"as the most significant contribution"},{"startTime":539.52,"endTime":542.263,"body":"to understanding the crisis."},{"startTime":545.2,"endTime":549.17,"body":"The next point to make is"},{"startTime":545.2,"endTime":549.17,"body":"a change in the structure"},{"startTime":549.17,"endTime":552.223,"body":"of the economy and whose voice was heard."},{"startTime":553.88,"endTime":557.35,"body":"Financial interests have"},{"startTime":553.88,"endTime":557.35,"body":"been much more important"},{"startTime":557.35,"endTime":561.783,"body":"since the 1970s, and"},{"startTime":557.35,"endTime":561.783,"body":"arguably captured the state."},{"startTime":563.01,"endTime":565.95,"body":"In the United States,"},{"startTime":563.01,"endTime":565.95,"body":"there was a revolving door"},{"startTime":565.95,"endTime":568.953,"body":"between government and Goldman Sachs."},{"startTime":570.12,"endTime":573.55,"body":"In May 2009, Simon Johnson,"},{"startTime":573.55,"endTime":575.35,"body":"who had recently been the chief economist"},{"startTime":575.35,"endTime":577.31,"body":"at the International Monetary Fund,"},{"startTime":577.31,"endTime":582.31,"body":"saw a quiet coup as he"},{"startTime":577.31,"endTime":582.31,"body":"called it, by leading banks."},{"startTime":582.33,"endTime":587.33,"body":"He had been involved with the"},{"startTime":582.33,"endTime":587.33,"body":"IMF in Russia and South Korea"},{"startTime":587.64,"endTime":589.28,"body":"where business oligarchs formed"},{"startTime":589.28,"endTime":591.94,"body":"a close relationship with government."},{"startTime":591.94,"endTime":594.03,"body":"And Johnson saw similarities"},{"startTime":594.03,"endTime":595.4,"body":"with the United States."},{"startTime":595.4,"endTime":598.48,"body":"He said, financiers played a central role"},{"startTime":598.48,"endTime":602.02,"body":"in creating the crisis,"},{"startTime":598.48,"endTime":602.02,"body":"making ever larger gambles"},{"startTime":602.02,"endTime":604.68,"body":"with the implicit backing"},{"startTime":602.02,"endTime":604.68,"body":"of the government,"},{"startTime":604.68,"endTime":606.623,"body":"until the inevitable collapse."},{"startTime":607.53,"endTime":609.38,"body":"More alarming he went on,"},{"startTime":609.38,"endTime":612.66,"body":"they are now using their"},{"startTime":609.38,"endTime":612.66,"body":"influence to prevent precisely"},{"startTime":612.66,"endTime":616.79,"body":"the sorts of reforms"},{"startTime":612.66,"endTime":616.79,"body":"that are needed and fast,"},{"startTime":616.79,"endTime":619.83,"body":"but the government seem"},{"startTime":616.79,"endTime":619.83,"body":"helpless or unwilling"},{"startTime":619.83,"endTime":621.503,"body":"to act against them."},{"startTime":622.69,"endTime":625.9,"body":"What Johnson argued was rather"},{"startTime":622.69,"endTime":625.9,"body":"than bribes and corruption,"},{"startTime":625.9,"endTime":630.0,"body":"such as in Russia, there was"},{"startTime":625.9,"endTime":630.0,"body":"a more insidious process."},{"startTime":630.0,"endTime":632.74,"body":"As he said, the American"},{"startTime":630.0,"endTime":632.74,"body":"financial industry,"},{"startTime":632.74,"endTime":634.27,"body":"gained political power,"},{"startTime":634.27,"endTime":638.35,"body":"by amassing a kind of cultural"},{"startTime":634.27,"endTime":638.35,"body":"capital, a belief system."},{"startTime":638.35,"endTime":641.87,"body":"It benefited from the fact"},{"startTime":638.35,"endTime":641.87,"body":"that Washington insiders,"},{"startTime":641.87,"endTime":645.09,"body":"already believed that large"},{"startTime":641.87,"endTime":645.09,"body":"financial institutions"},{"startTime":645.09,"endTime":648.05,"body":"and free flowing capital"},{"startTime":645.09,"endTime":648.05,"body":"markets were crucial"},{"startTime":648.05,"endTime":651.15,"body":"to America's position in the world."},{"startTime":651.15,"endTime":653.96,"body":"And this captured the state"},{"startTime":651.15,"endTime":653.96,"body":"by financial interest."},{"startTime":653.96,"endTime":657.28,"body":"It could be argued, was"},{"startTime":653.96,"endTime":657.28,"body":"possible because more people"},{"startTime":657.28,"endTime":660.17,"body":"were implicated in financial services,"},{"startTime":660.17,"endTime":664.2,"body":"through loans, pensions, equity, purchase,"},{"startTime":664.2,"endTime":666.98,"body":"insurance, credit cards and so on."},{"startTime":666.98,"endTime":668.48,"body":"The result was a larger,"},{"startTime":668.48,"endTime":671.34,"body":"what has been called bailout constituency."},{"startTime":671.34,"endTime":673.88,"body":"Middle class voters, who were aligned"},{"startTime":673.88,"endTime":676.77,"body":"with the financial elites"},{"startTime":673.88,"endTime":676.77,"body":"to protect their assets"},{"startTime":676.77,"endTime":679.153,"body":"and their access to credit."},{"startTime":681.73,"endTime":685.23,"body":"And alongside this, we have what is,"},{"startTime":685.23,"endTime":689.39,"body":"can be called a process"},{"startTime":685.23,"endTime":689.39,"body":"of bait and switch."},{"startTime":689.39,"endTime":693.56,"body":"That is to say, you transfer the blame"},{"startTime":693.56,"endTime":696.483,"body":"from where it really does"},{"startTime":693.56,"endTime":696.483,"body":"reside to somebody else."},{"startTime":699.3,"endTime":702.44,"body":"The right ignored private debt"},{"startTime":702.44,"endTime":704.6,"body":"and debt were bailing out banks"},{"startTime":704.6,"endTime":707.1,"body":"and blamed high levels of public debt"},{"startTime":707.1,"endTime":709.52,"body":"although in fact, it was the private debt"},{"startTime":709.52,"endTime":710.79,"body":"and the bailing out to the banks"},{"startTime":710.79,"endTime":712.583,"body":"with the real cause of the crisis."},{"startTime":713.65,"endTime":717.04,"body":"They then passed the blame"},{"startTime":713.65,"endTime":717.04,"body":"to the impovitet behavior"},{"startTime":717.04,"endTime":720.02,"body":"of the state and to generous welfare,"},{"startTime":720.02,"endTime":722.563,"body":"which is easy to explain to electors."},{"startTime":723.41,"endTime":726.21,"body":"Mark Blyth, the author"},{"startTime":723.41,"endTime":726.21,"body":"of a very important book"},{"startTime":726.21,"endTime":729.457,"body":"on austerity, put it this way."},{"startTime":729.457,"endTime":731.793,"body":"\"Austerity is the penance,"},{"startTime":732.86,"endTime":737.06,"body":"the virtuous pain after the immoral party,"},{"startTime":737.06,"endTime":739.89,"body":"except it is not going"},{"startTime":737.06,"endTime":739.89,"body":"to be a diet of pain"},{"startTime":739.89,"endTime":742.56,"body":"that we shall all share."},{"startTime":742.56,"endTime":744.73,"body":"Few of us who were invited the party,"},{"startTime":744.73,"endTime":747.847,"body":"but we are all being"},{"startTime":744.73,"endTime":747.847,"body":"asked to pay the bill.\""},{"startTime":749.4,"endTime":754.07,"body":"So by these means there was"},{"startTime":749.4,"endTime":754.07,"body":"a shift in the rhetoric,"},{"startTime":754.07,"endTime":757.853,"body":"in the argument away from"},{"startTime":754.07,"endTime":757.853,"body":"fiscal stimulus to austerity."},{"startTime":758.89,"endTime":762.43,"body":"What I would like to"},{"startTime":758.89,"endTime":762.43,"body":"suggest is there were flaws"},{"startTime":762.43,"endTime":765.883,"body":"in this argument against fiscal stimulus."},{"startTime":767.1,"endTime":770.64,"body":"Critics at the time, contrary"},{"startTime":767.1,"endTime":770.64,"body":"to what Nick Cregg said,"},{"startTime":770.64,"endTime":773.373,"body":"existed and they were marginalized."},{"startTime":775.38,"endTime":779.903,"body":"After the pandemic, there has"},{"startTime":775.38,"endTime":779.903,"body":"indeed been some bias remorse."},{"startTime":780.74,"endTime":784.36,"body":"In Duncan Smith, former leader"},{"startTime":780.74,"endTime":784.36,"body":"of the Conservative Party,"},{"startTime":784.36,"endTime":788.337,"body":"and a government minister"},{"startTime":784.36,"endTime":788.337,"body":"recently commented and I quote,"},{"startTime":788.337,"endTime":791.83,"body":"\"George Osborne needs to"},{"startTime":788.337,"endTime":791.83,"body":"stop drinking the Kool-Aid,"},{"startTime":791.83,"endTime":793.177,"body":"he got it wrong.\""},{"startTime":795.4,"endTime":798.713,"body":"Now, how did the argument go wrong?"},{"startTime":800.06,"endTime":800.893,"body":"I would say, first of all,"},{"startTime":800.893,"endTime":803.353,"body":"that the economic case was flawed."},{"startTime":804.58,"endTime":807.56,"body":"Alesina looked at the"},{"startTime":804.58,"endTime":807.56,"body":"distributional consequences"},{"startTime":807.56,"endTime":810.58,"body":"between present and future generations,"},{"startTime":810.58,"endTime":814.45,"body":"but he did not look at the"},{"startTime":810.58,"endTime":814.45,"body":"consequences of austerity"},{"startTime":814.45,"endTime":816.52,"body":"in provoking discontent,"},{"startTime":816.52,"endTime":819.81,"body":"in harming the prospects"},{"startTime":816.52,"endTime":819.81,"body":"of the current generation,"},{"startTime":819.81,"endTime":822.52,"body":"of increasing mortality for the elderly"},{"startTime":823.62,"endTime":825.833,"body":"of encouraging economic nationalism."},{"startTime":826.84,"endTime":828.7,"body":"Indeed it could be argued,"},{"startTime":828.7,"endTime":831.58,"body":"was argued by many that fiscal stimulus"},{"startTime":831.58,"endTime":835.09,"body":"might have assisted recovery"},{"startTime":831.58,"endTime":835.09,"body":"by bringing forward investment"},{"startTime":835.09,"endTime":838.79,"body":"at the time of weak"},{"startTime":835.09,"endTime":838.79,"body":"demand and idle resources"},{"startTime":838.79,"endTime":841.2,"body":"that would've increased the level of GDP"},{"startTime":841.2,"endTime":845.52,"body":"and that itself would've"},{"startTime":841.2,"endTime":845.52,"body":"reduced a debt to GDP ratio."},{"startTime":845.52,"endTime":850.3,"body":"Instead cuts and spending led"},{"startTime":845.52,"endTime":850.3,"body":"to recession and an increase"},{"startTime":850.3,"endTime":852.453,"body":"in the debt to GDP ratio."},{"startTime":853.97,"endTime":855.793,"body":"And then there's the 90% rule."},{"startTime":858.534,"endTime":862.17,"body":"And I think that this"},{"startTime":858.534,"endTime":862.17,"body":"misread misused history."},{"startTime":862.17,"endTime":864.6,"body":"It's aggregated countries and peers"},{"startTime":864.6,"endTime":868.0,"body":"without attention to context."},{"startTime":868.0,"endTime":870.71,"body":"So let's take the case"},{"startTime":868.0,"endTime":870.71,"body":"of Britain where we have"},{"startTime":870.71,"endTime":874.19,"body":"on the screen, the debt GDP ratio."},{"startTime":874.19,"endTime":879.19,"body":"We see three periods when the"},{"startTime":874.19,"endTime":879.19,"body":"level of debt was very high."},{"startTime":879.31,"endTime":881.35,"body":"The Napoleonic wars,"},{"startTime":881.35,"endTime":885.58,"body":"the first world war and"},{"startTime":881.35,"endTime":885.58,"body":"the second world war."},{"startTime":885.58,"endTime":890.37,"body":"And those levels of debt"},{"startTime":885.58,"endTime":890.37,"body":"exceeding 90% of GDP"},{"startTime":890.37,"endTime":893.44,"body":"in some cases were"},{"startTime":890.37,"endTime":893.44,"body":"associated with rapid growth"},{"startTime":893.44,"endTime":895.813,"body":"and sometimes with low growth."},{"startTime":897.33,"endTime":900.46,"body":"After the Napoleonic wars ended in 1815,"},{"startTime":900.46,"endTime":902.563,"body":"debt fell very rapidly."},{"startTime":903.67,"endTime":908.42,"body":"And that was because growth"},{"startTime":903.67,"endTime":908.42,"body":"was rapid, prices were stable,"},{"startTime":908.42,"endTime":909.87,"body":"that didn't have an impact."},{"startTime":909.87,"endTime":912.65,"body":"It was really that very"},{"startTime":909.87,"endTime":912.65,"body":"rapid level of growth,"},{"startTime":912.65,"endTime":914.893,"body":"which reduced the debt to GDPP ratio."},{"startTime":916.76,"endTime":921.76,"body":"By contrast, after the"},{"startTime":916.76,"endTime":921.76,"body":"first world war after 1918,"},{"startTime":922.7,"endTime":924.423,"body":"growth was slow."},{"startTime":925.46,"endTime":926.83,"body":"Interest rates were high,"},{"startTime":926.83,"endTime":930.8,"body":"which increased the cost servicing"},{"startTime":926.83,"endTime":930.8,"body":"the debt and prices fell,"},{"startTime":930.8,"endTime":932.6,"body":"which increased the"},{"startTime":930.8,"endTime":932.6,"body":"real level of the debt."},{"startTime":932.6,"endTime":935.15,"body":"It was very difficult to"},{"startTime":932.6,"endTime":935.15,"body":"escape the burden of debt."},{"startTime":936.18,"endTime":940.98,"body":"After 1945, the level of debt to GDP,"},{"startTime":940.98,"endTime":943.28,"body":"again fell very rapidly."},{"startTime":943.28,"endTime":947.22,"body":"And this is because of a"},{"startTime":943.28,"endTime":947.22,"body":"combination of high growth,"},{"startTime":947.22,"endTime":948.31,"body":"low interest rates,"},{"startTime":948.31,"endTime":950.47,"body":"which reduce the cost"},{"startTime":948.31,"endTime":950.47,"body":"of servicing the debt"},{"startTime":950.47,"endTime":952.81,"body":"and modest inflation, which reduced"},{"startTime":952.81,"endTime":954.52,"body":"the real burden of the debt."},{"startTime":954.52,"endTime":957.07,"body":"So the lesson that we"},{"startTime":954.52,"endTime":957.07,"body":"could learn from this,"},{"startTime":957.07,"endTime":961.3,"body":"is that it is not a one size"},{"startTime":957.07,"endTime":961.3,"body":"fits all debt to GDP ratio"},{"startTime":961.3,"endTime":962.89,"body":"of 90% is bad."},{"startTime":962.89,"endTime":965.83,"body":"It depends upon policy choices."},{"startTime":965.83,"endTime":968.59,"body":"It depends upon what"},{"startTime":965.83,"endTime":968.59,"body":"happens to interest rates,"},{"startTime":968.59,"endTime":971.5,"body":"inflation and growth."},{"startTime":971.5,"endTime":975.27,"body":"And the solution might have"},{"startTime":971.5,"endTime":975.27,"body":"been investment in growth"},{"startTime":975.27,"endTime":978.21,"body":"rather than harmful cuts in"},{"startTime":975.27,"endTime":978.21,"body":"spending that weaken growth"},{"startTime":978.21,"endTime":980.813,"body":"and increase the level of debt to GDP."},{"startTime":981.73,"endTime":985.47,"body":"Where debt is serviced by taxation,"},{"startTime":985.47,"endTime":989.69,"body":"that shifts income towards"},{"startTime":985.47,"endTime":989.69,"body":"poorer members of society"},{"startTime":989.69,"endTime":991.72,"body":"and it increases their consumption"},{"startTime":992.98,"endTime":996.6,"body":"where spending improves"},{"startTime":992.98,"endTime":996.6,"body":"education and training,"},{"startTime":996.6,"endTime":998.243,"body":"it might encourage growth."},{"startTime":1000.32,"endTime":1005.32,"body":"And this case for spending"},{"startTime":1000.32,"endTime":1005.32,"body":"was made by progressives,"},{"startTime":1005.43,"endTime":1008.663,"body":"but it was also made by the"},{"startTime":1005.43,"endTime":1008.663,"body":"International Monetary Fund,"},{"startTime":1009.51,"endTime":1012.34,"body":"which argued for fiscal policy"},{"startTime":1012.34,"endTime":1015.58,"body":"as a tool for economic stabilization."},{"startTime":1015.58,"endTime":1017.4,"body":"And the IMF pointed out"},{"startTime":1017.4,"endTime":1021.02,"body":"that if all countries"},{"startTime":1017.4,"endTime":1021.02,"body":"reduced debt deficits"},{"startTime":1021.02,"endTime":1022.55,"body":"at the same time,"},{"startTime":1022.55,"endTime":1025.113,"body":"it would harm global economic growth."},{"startTime":1026.69,"endTime":1031.06,"body":"The IMF argued an approach,"},{"startTime":1026.69,"endTime":1031.06,"body":"which it called not too fast,"},{"startTime":1031.06,"endTime":1032.88,"body":"not too far."},{"startTime":1032.88,"endTime":1036.42,"body":"Countries, which had a surplus"},{"startTime":1032.88,"endTime":1036.42,"body":"should boost global demand."},{"startTime":1036.42,"endTime":1038.39,"body":"They should postpone fiscal adjustments"},{"startTime":1038.39,"endTime":1039.953,"body":"until the downturn was over."},{"startTime":1040.8,"endTime":1043.373,"body":"In 2013, Olivia Blanchard,"},{"startTime":1044.404,"endTime":1048.73,"body":"the Chief Economist of"},{"startTime":1044.404,"endTime":1048.73,"body":"the IMF accused and Osborn"},{"startTime":1048.73,"endTime":1053.73,"body":"of I quote, \"playing with fire"},{"startTime":1048.73,"endTime":1053.73,"body":"by adopting harsh hostility.\""},{"startTime":1055.89,"endTime":1059.53,"body":"So we could argue then,"},{"startTime":1055.89,"endTime":1059.53,"body":"that there was a strong case"},{"startTime":1059.53,"endTime":1061.65,"body":"for more spending,"},{"startTime":1061.65,"endTime":1065.93,"body":"at least some economists were"},{"startTime":1061.65,"endTime":1065.93,"body":"skeptical about the 90% rule"},{"startTime":1065.93,"endTime":1068.373,"body":"and about the a case for austerity."},{"startTime":1070.23,"endTime":1072.75,"body":"But fiscal stimulus was cut"},{"startTime":1072.75,"endTime":1076.5,"body":"in the Western capitalist economies."},{"startTime":1076.5,"endTime":1078.01,"body":"There was a major exception"},{"startTime":1078.01,"endTime":1080.963,"body":"to the rejection of"},{"startTime":1078.01,"endTime":1080.963,"body":"fiscal stimulus, China,"},{"startTime":1082.54,"endTime":1086.11,"body":"which embarked on a"},{"startTime":1082.54,"endTime":1086.11,"body":"massive fiscal stimulus."},{"startTime":1086.11,"endTime":1088.52,"body":"And it was that fiscal stimulus in China,"},{"startTime":1088.52,"endTime":1092.62,"body":"which is crucial in preventing"},{"startTime":1088.52,"endTime":1092.62,"body":"the global financial crisis"},{"startTime":1092.62,"endTime":1095.28,"body":"from becoming a second grade depression."},{"startTime":1095.28,"endTime":1098.37,"body":"In November, 2008, the"},{"startTime":1095.28,"endTime":1098.37,"body":"Chinese government announced"},{"startTime":1098.37,"endTime":1103.2,"body":"a huge spending package by"},{"startTime":1098.37,"endTime":1103.2,"body":"local and regional governments,"},{"startTime":1103.2,"endTime":1107.0,"body":"building houses, airports,"},{"startTime":1103.2,"endTime":1107.0,"body":"ports, and so on."},{"startTime":1107.0,"endTime":1109.01,"body":"The risk of course is that this"},{"startTime":1109.01,"endTime":1111.19,"body":"would create excess capacity,"},{"startTime":1111.19,"endTime":1114.343,"body":"unnecessary infrastructure"},{"startTime":1111.19,"endTime":1114.343,"body":"projects and corruption."},{"startTime":1115.56,"endTime":1117.73,"body":"Chinese government also"},{"startTime":1115.56,"endTime":1117.73,"body":"boosted consumption"},{"startTime":1117.73,"endTime":1121.74,"body":"in December 2008, by private consumers,"},{"startTime":1121.74,"endTime":1124.623,"body":"giving them grants to buy"},{"startTime":1121.74,"endTime":1124.623,"body":"large domestic appliances."},{"startTime":1126.6,"endTime":1129.823,"body":"This was the largest stimulus"},{"startTime":1126.6,"endTime":1129.823,"body":"in the world economy."},{"startTime":1131.16,"endTime":1135.54,"body":"For China, continued growth"},{"startTime":1131.16,"endTime":1135.54,"body":"was vital to the legitimacy"},{"startTime":1135.54,"endTime":1138.293,"body":"of the party's rule and"},{"startTime":1135.54,"endTime":1138.293,"body":"to political stability."},{"startTime":1139.3,"endTime":1142.39,"body":"And this huge boost to spending by China,"},{"startTime":1142.39,"endTime":1144.927,"body":"marked in the words of Adam Tooze,"},{"startTime":1144.927,"endTime":1149.5,"body":"\"a fundamental change of"},{"startTime":1144.927,"endTime":1149.5,"body":"world, historic proportions,"},{"startTime":1149.5,"endTime":1152.75,"body":"dramatically accelerating the"},{"startTime":1149.5,"endTime":1152.75,"body":"shift in the global balance"},{"startTime":1152.75,"endTime":1156.11,"body":"of economic activity towards East Asia.\""},{"startTime":1156.11,"endTime":1161.11,"body":"As he said, in 2009, for the"},{"startTime":1156.11,"endTime":1161.11,"body":"first time in the modern era,"},{"startTime":1161.22,"endTime":1163.53,"body":"it was the movement of the Chinese economy"},{"startTime":1163.53,"endTime":1166.353,"body":"that carried the entire world economy."},{"startTime":1167.26,"endTime":1169.48,"body":"So Britain, United States, Germany,"},{"startTime":1169.48,"endTime":1173.313,"body":"did not have a large"},{"startTime":1169.48,"endTime":1173.313,"body":"fiscal stimulus, China did."},{"startTime":1174.17,"endTime":1176.43,"body":"What the United States and Britain did"},{"startTime":1176.43,"endTime":1179.31,"body":"and then reluctantly, the European Union"},{"startTime":1179.31,"endTime":1181.683,"body":"was turned to monetary policy."},{"startTime":1183.63,"endTime":1185.58,"body":"This did mean that a repeat"},{"startTime":1185.58,"endTime":1188.37,"body":"of the great depression was avoided,"},{"startTime":1188.37,"endTime":1193.12,"body":"but it also meant that underlying"},{"startTime":1188.37,"endTime":1193.12,"body":"problems were not fixed."},{"startTime":1193.12,"endTime":1195.09,"body":"Indeed trends that existed"},{"startTime":1195.09,"endTime":1198.313,"body":"before the crisis were exacerbated."},{"startTime":1200.24,"endTime":1203.69,"body":"Monetary policy took two forms."},{"startTime":1203.69,"endTime":1206.57,"body":"The first and most visible and well known"},{"startTime":1206.57,"endTime":1208.8,"body":"was quantitative easing."},{"startTime":1208.8,"endTime":1212.7,"body":"That is the federal reserve"},{"startTime":1208.8,"endTime":1212.7,"body":"and the Bank of England,"},{"startTime":1212.7,"endTime":1214.82,"body":"bought mortgage back securities"},{"startTime":1214.82,"endTime":1217.043,"body":"and treasury bonds from the banks."},{"startTime":1218.08,"endTime":1220.49,"body":"Hence these bonds were in shorter supply,"},{"startTime":1220.49,"endTime":1224.38,"body":"their price went up, which"},{"startTime":1220.49,"endTime":1224.38,"body":"meant their yield fell."},{"startTime":1224.38,"endTime":1229.34,"body":"Interest rates dropped, and"},{"startTime":1224.38,"endTime":1229.34,"body":"investors switched to equities,"},{"startTime":1229.34,"endTime":1230.923,"body":"which rose in price."},{"startTime":1231.94,"endTime":1234.07,"body":"In theory, the purchase of bonds meant"},{"startTime":1234.07,"endTime":1236.03,"body":"that the banks had more cash,"},{"startTime":1236.03,"endTime":1239.343,"body":"and could provide easier"},{"startTime":1236.03,"endTime":1239.343,"body":"credit to stimulate recovery."},{"startTime":1242.14,"endTime":1244.78,"body":"The feds and the Bank of"},{"startTime":1242.14,"endTime":1244.78,"body":"England adopted this policy,"},{"startTime":1244.78,"endTime":1247.26,"body":"the European central bank delayed"},{"startTime":1247.26,"endTime":1250.013,"body":"until it reluctantly followed in 2015."},{"startTime":1252.13,"endTime":1255.47,"body":"It did help the,"},{"startTime":1255.47,"endTime":1258.86,"body":"in the great depression,"},{"startTime":1255.47,"endTime":1258.86,"body":"the monetary supply dropped"},{"startTime":1258.86,"endTime":1263.006,"body":"during the period after the"},{"startTime":1258.86,"endTime":1263.006,"body":"global financial crisis."},{"startTime":1263.006,"endTime":1264.523,"body":"it did not."},{"startTime":1266.28,"endTime":1268.913,"body":"So this did help avoid"},{"startTime":1266.28,"endTime":1268.913,"body":"the great depression."},{"startTime":1270.17,"endTime":1273.85,"body":"But this policy of quantity"},{"startTime":1270.17,"endTime":1273.85,"body":"easing was criticized"},{"startTime":1273.85,"endTime":1276.603,"body":"from both ends of the political spectrum."},{"startTime":1278.13,"endTime":1280.86,"body":"On the right it was"},{"startTime":1278.13,"endTime":1280.86,"body":"argued that it would lead"},{"startTime":1280.86,"endTime":1283.57,"body":"to inflation, to currency basement"},{"startTime":1283.57,"endTime":1286.27,"body":"and one Republican Congressman even called"},{"startTime":1286.27,"endTime":1288.677,"body":"for the abolition of the fed, I quote"},{"startTime":1288.677,"endTime":1292.51,"body":"\"because it is immoral,"},{"startTime":1288.677,"endTime":1292.51,"body":"unconstitutional, impractical,"},{"startTime":1292.51,"endTime":1295.597,"body":"promotes bad economics"},{"startTime":1292.51,"endTime":1295.597,"body":"and undermines Liberty.\""},{"startTime":1297.09,"endTime":1300.74,"body":"On the other hand, progressives claimed"},{"startTime":1301.93,"endTime":1303.55,"body":"perhaps with more justice,"},{"startTime":1303.55,"endTime":1306.93,"body":"that there was a rise in"},{"startTime":1303.55,"endTime":1306.93,"body":"asset prices at a time"},{"startTime":1306.93,"endTime":1308.613,"body":"when wages were stagnant."},{"startTime":1310.407,"endTime":1313.613,"body":"And we see here, the Dow Jones index."},{"startTime":1315.06,"endTime":1320.06,"body":"The outcome was inequitable,"},{"startTime":1315.06,"endTime":1320.06,"body":"Wall Street was saved,"},{"startTime":1320.22,"endTime":1323.03,"body":"hold of equity gained."},{"startTime":1323.03,"endTime":1327.007,"body":"In the words of one city of"},{"startTime":1323.03,"endTime":1327.007,"body":"London Financia very recently,"},{"startTime":1327.007,"endTime":1330.527,"body":"\"owners of assets have all"},{"startTime":1327.007,"endTime":1330.527,"body":"made out like bandits.\""},{"startTime":1332.45,"endTime":1335.69,"body":"Austerity harm welfare recipients,"},{"startTime":1335.69,"endTime":1338.763,"body":"in America homeowners faced foreclosure."},{"startTime":1339.62,"endTime":1342.69,"body":"So quantum easing was"},{"startTime":1339.62,"endTime":1342.69,"body":"both good and short term,"},{"startTime":1342.69,"endTime":1345.97,"body":"but also building up"},{"startTime":1342.69,"endTime":1345.97,"body":"potential difficulties"},{"startTime":1345.97,"endTime":1347.013,"body":"in the longer term."},{"startTime":1348.47,"endTime":1351.81,"body":"The second monetary"},{"startTime":1348.47,"endTime":1351.81,"body":"policy was swap networks."},{"startTime":1351.81,"endTime":1355.34,"body":"These were less visible,"},{"startTime":1351.81,"endTime":1355.34,"body":"but just as important."},{"startTime":1355.34,"endTime":1357.34,"body":"This means that the federal reserve,"},{"startTime":1357.34,"endTime":1362.19,"body":"provided vast sums of money"},{"startTime":1357.34,"endTime":1362.19,"body":"to other central banks."},{"startTime":1362.19,"endTime":1365.763,"body":"And those other central banks"},{"startTime":1362.19,"endTime":1365.763,"body":"could support private banks."},{"startTime":1366.8,"endTime":1371.26,"body":"Result of this was contrary"},{"startTime":1366.8,"endTime":1371.26,"body":"to what Nicholas Sarkozy said,"},{"startTime":1371.26,"endTime":1374.02,"body":"which is that the global"},{"startTime":1371.26,"endTime":1374.02,"body":"financial crisis marked"},{"startTime":1374.02,"endTime":1375.59,"body":"a downfall of the dollar."},{"startTime":1375.59,"endTime":1379.02,"body":"On the contrary, the dollar"},{"startTime":1375.59,"endTime":1379.02,"body":"became more important"},{"startTime":1379.02,"endTime":1381.93,"body":"and the Federal Reserve bank acted"},{"startTime":1381.93,"endTime":1384.893,"body":"as the central banker of the world."},{"startTime":1386.23,"endTime":1390.71,"body":"What did not happen was"},{"startTime":1386.23,"endTime":1390.71,"body":"tighter regulation of banks."},{"startTime":1390.71,"endTime":1394.06,"body":"The action of the fed actually encouraged,"},{"startTime":1394.06,"endTime":1394.893,"body":"what they called,"},{"startTime":1394.893,"endTime":1397.53,"body":"systematically important"},{"startTime":1394.893,"endTime":1397.53,"body":"financial institutions"},{"startTime":1397.53,"endTime":1399.61,"body":"to become even bigger."},{"startTime":1399.61,"endTime":1403.703,"body":"And this increased the"},{"startTime":1399.61,"endTime":1403.703,"body":"two big to fail problem."},{"startTime":1404.67,"endTime":1406.86,"body":"And here was a marked"},{"startTime":1404.67,"endTime":1406.86,"body":"contrast for the period"},{"startTime":1406.86,"endTime":1408.21,"body":"after the great depression."},{"startTime":1409.099,"endTime":1411.72,"body":"After the great depression"},{"startTime":1409.099,"endTime":1411.72,"body":"regulation on banks"},{"startTime":1411.72,"endTime":1415.71,"body":"was tightened up by the"},{"startTime":1411.72,"endTime":1415.71,"body":"Glass-Steagall Act of 1933,"},{"startTime":1415.71,"endTime":1418.703,"body":"that was appealed in 1999."},{"startTime":1419.94,"endTime":1422.74,"body":"With few exceptions, economists believed"},{"startTime":1422.74,"endTime":1425.75,"body":"that financial crisis"},{"startTime":1422.74,"endTime":1425.75,"body":"came from external shocks"},{"startTime":1425.75,"endTime":1427.893,"body":"and not from within the financial system."},{"startTime":1430.1,"endTime":1433.67,"body":"Central bankers and the college"},{"startTime":1430.1,"endTime":1433.67,"body":"of remarkably complacent"},{"startTime":1433.67,"endTime":1437.65,"body":"that the risks could be minimized."},{"startTime":1437.65,"endTime":1441.4,"body":"At the fed in 2006 before the crisis,"},{"startTime":1441.4,"endTime":1445.83,"body":"Ben Bernanke said banking"},{"startTime":1441.4,"endTime":1445.83,"body":"organizations of all sizes"},{"startTime":1445.83,"endTime":1449.77,"body":"have made substantial strides"},{"startTime":1445.83,"endTime":1449.77,"body":"over the past two decades"},{"startTime":1449.77,"endTime":1454.12,"body":"in their ability to"},{"startTime":1449.77,"endTime":1454.12,"body":"measure and manage risks."},{"startTime":1454.12,"endTime":1456.653,"body":"Well, that was a very complacent view."},{"startTime":1458.48,"endTime":1462.66,"body":"After the crash, regulation"},{"startTime":1458.48,"endTime":1462.66,"body":"still remained weaker"},{"startTime":1462.66,"endTime":1464.93,"body":"than it did after the great depression."},{"startTime":1464.93,"endTime":1467.37,"body":"And that goes back to the"},{"startTime":1464.93,"endTime":1467.37,"body":"point I was making earlier"},{"startTime":1467.37,"endTime":1470.75,"body":"about capture by financial interests."},{"startTime":1470.75,"endTime":1472.95,"body":"As Simon Johnson complained,"},{"startTime":1472.95,"endTime":1476.57,"body":"the response to the crisis"},{"startTime":1472.95,"endTime":1476.57,"body":"was an unwillingness"},{"startTime":1476.57,"endTime":1479.66,"body":"to upset the financial"},{"startTime":1476.57,"endTime":1479.66,"body":"sector or to question"},{"startTime":1479.66,"endTime":1482.983,"body":"the basic outlines of the"},{"startTime":1479.66,"endTime":1482.983,"body":"system that got us here."},{"startTime":1483.92,"endTime":1487.52,"body":"The outcome was preservation"},{"startTime":1483.92,"endTime":1487.52,"body":"of the existing system"},{"startTime":1487.52,"endTime":1490.303,"body":"rather than fundamental reform."},{"startTime":1492.67,"endTime":1497.663,"body":"Still this did again,"},{"startTime":1492.67,"endTime":1497.663,"body":"help the immediate crisis."},{"startTime":1500.1,"endTime":1503.213,"body":"In Europe, action was much slower."},{"startTime":1504.24,"endTime":1508.66,"body":"While China and the United"},{"startTime":1504.24,"endTime":1508.66,"body":"States and Britain acted"},{"startTime":1508.66,"endTime":1511.75,"body":"whether by fiscal stimulus"},{"startTime":1508.66,"endTime":1511.75,"body":"or monetary action,"},{"startTime":1511.75,"endTime":1514.83,"body":"the Euro zone dithered and adopted"},{"startTime":1514.83,"endTime":1518.373,"body":"what has been called, extend and pretend."},{"startTime":1519.34,"endTime":1523.2,"body":"The Bundesbank and chancellor Merkel,"},{"startTime":1523.2,"endTime":1526.913,"body":"limited action by the"},{"startTime":1523.2,"endTime":1526.913,"body":"European central bank."},{"startTime":1528.09,"endTime":1530.34,"body":"Initially it seemed the Euro zone"},{"startTime":1530.34,"endTime":1532.6,"body":"has escaped the financial crisis"},{"startTime":1532.6,"endTime":1535.2,"body":"though that was a large"},{"startTime":1532.6,"endTime":1535.2,"body":"part because of the support"},{"startTime":1535.2,"endTime":1536.943,"body":"from the federal reserve."},{"startTime":1539.12,"endTime":1542.4,"body":"Then the Euro zone crisis hit."},{"startTime":1542.4,"endTime":1544.53,"body":"Before the global financial crisis,"},{"startTime":1544.53,"endTime":1547.73,"body":"Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain"},{"startTime":1547.73,"endTime":1550.62,"body":"had all been able to borrow"},{"startTime":1547.73,"endTime":1550.62,"body":"at low interest rates"},{"startTime":1550.62,"endTime":1553.2,"body":"because of an implicit guarantee provided"},{"startTime":1553.2,"endTime":1555.243,"body":"by membership of the Euro zone."},{"startTime":1556.75,"endTime":1559.8,"body":"In 2010, a sovereign debt crisis started"},{"startTime":1559.8,"endTime":1561.08,"body":"to hit those countries."},{"startTime":1561.08,"endTime":1564.45,"body":"Either because they had"},{"startTime":1561.08,"endTime":1564.45,"body":"themselves been spending too much"},{"startTime":1564.45,"endTime":1567.923,"body":"or because they were bailing"},{"startTime":1564.45,"endTime":1567.923,"body":"out banks as in Ireland."},{"startTime":1568.82,"endTime":1571.143,"body":"The borrowers were in"},{"startTime":1568.82,"endTime":1571.143,"body":"a difficult position."},{"startTime":1572.4,"endTime":1574.91,"body":"As members of the Euro, they could not,"},{"startTime":1574.91,"endTime":1576.27,"body":"as they might have done in the past"},{"startTime":1576.27,"endTime":1578.94,"body":"with their own currencies devalue,"},{"startTime":1578.94,"endTime":1582.25,"body":"which would reduce interest"},{"startTime":1578.94,"endTime":1582.25,"body":"payments on external debt"},{"startTime":1582.25,"endTime":1584.463,"body":"and make their goods more competitive."},{"startTime":1586.7,"endTime":1589.57,"body":"There was also a refusal"},{"startTime":1586.7,"endTime":1589.57,"body":"by the European union"},{"startTime":1589.57,"endTime":1591.4,"body":"to mutualize debt."},{"startTime":1591.4,"endTime":1594.3,"body":"That is to say, make the"},{"startTime":1591.4,"endTime":1594.3,"body":"debt of individual countries"},{"startTime":1594.3,"endTime":1597.95,"body":"a responsibility of the European union."},{"startTime":1597.95,"endTime":1602.07,"body":"The Maastricht Treaty rested"},{"startTime":1597.95,"endTime":1602.07,"body":"on inter-governmentalism"},{"startTime":1602.07,"endTime":1606.253,"body":"with each state being"},{"startTime":1602.07,"endTime":1606.253,"body":"for its own obligations."},{"startTime":1607.84,"endTime":1610.42,"body":"And at the European Central Bank,"},{"startTime":1610.42,"endTime":1612.83,"body":"the president Jean-Claude Trichet,"},{"startTime":1612.83,"endTime":1615.29,"body":"opposed quantitative easing."},{"startTime":1615.29,"endTime":1619.01,"body":"He actually increased interest"},{"startTime":1615.29,"endTime":1619.01,"body":"rates to force countries"},{"startTime":1619.01,"endTime":1621.8,"body":"to take responsibility for their actions,"},{"startTime":1621.8,"endTime":1623.46,"body":"which Adam Tooze has called,"},{"startTime":1623.46,"endTime":1625.5,"body":"one of the most misguided decisions"},{"startTime":1625.5,"endTime":1627.973,"body":"in the history of monetary policy."},{"startTime":1629.24,"endTime":1631.91,"body":"It was only when Mario Draghi"},{"startTime":1631.91,"endTime":1636.243,"body":"became the head of the"},{"startTime":1631.91,"endTime":1636.243,"body":"ECB that's in July, 2012,"},{"startTime":1637.17,"endTime":1640.34,"body":"he said he was ready"},{"startTime":1637.17,"endTime":1640.34,"body":"to do whatever it takes"},{"startTime":1640.34,"endTime":1642.21,"body":"to preserve the Euro."},{"startTime":1642.21,"endTime":1646.32,"body":"He offered to buy bonds from"},{"startTime":1642.21,"endTime":1646.32,"body":"countries in difficulties,"},{"startTime":1646.32,"endTime":1650.183,"body":"and then the ECB also"},{"startTime":1646.32,"endTime":1650.183,"body":"adopted quantitative easing."},{"startTime":1651.73,"endTime":1655.91,"body":"Angela Merkel gave in and"},{"startTime":1651.73,"endTime":1655.91,"body":"overruled the Bundesbank."},{"startTime":1655.91,"endTime":1657.57,"body":"Although there remained problems"},{"startTime":1657.57,"endTime":1660.63,"body":"because of the German"},{"startTime":1657.57,"endTime":1660.63,"body":"constitutional court questioning"},{"startTime":1660.63,"endTime":1664.283,"body":"the legality of this bond buying program."},{"startTime":1666.319,"endTime":1668.44,"body":"Their doubts led to referral"},{"startTime":1668.44,"endTime":1670.503,"body":"to the European Court of Justice."},{"startTime":1672.37,"endTime":1673.76,"body":"The result of these debates"},{"startTime":1673.76,"endTime":1676.333,"body":"within the European union was resentment."},{"startTime":1678.38,"endTime":1682.22,"body":"Greece presented the"},{"startTime":1678.38,"endTime":1682.22,"body":"imposition of austerity"},{"startTime":1682.22,"endTime":1686.11,"body":"by the European commission and by the IMF."},{"startTime":1686.11,"endTime":1689.48,"body":"On the other hand, the"},{"startTime":1686.11,"endTime":1689.48,"body":"Northern European states,"},{"startTime":1689.48,"endTime":1692.563,"body":"blamed the Southern European"},{"startTime":1689.48,"endTime":1692.563,"body":"states for imprudence."},{"startTime":1693.67,"endTime":1696.06,"body":"Rather tactlessly the Dutch president"},{"startTime":1696.06,"endTime":1699.24,"body":"of the European finance"},{"startTime":1696.06,"endTime":1699.24,"body":"ministers commented"},{"startTime":1699.24,"endTime":1704.24,"body":"that the north had helped the south,"},{"startTime":1704.34,"endTime":1706.64,"body":"but you cannot spend all the money"},{"startTime":1706.64,"endTime":1711.64,"body":"on drinks and women and then ask for help."},{"startTime":1711.64,"endTime":1715.73,"body":"Well, the outcome of the"},{"startTime":1711.64,"endTime":1715.73,"body":"policy was widening disparity"},{"startTime":1715.73,"endTime":1719.31,"body":"between economic growth in the south."},{"startTime":1719.31,"endTime":1722.704,"body":"Degree stopping by 26% and growth"},{"startTime":1722.704,"endTime":1727.704,"body":"in the Northern state in"},{"startTime":1722.704,"endTime":1727.704,"body":"Germany growth by 14%."},{"startTime":1728.82,"endTime":1731.15,"body":"There's widening disparities."},{"startTime":1731.15,"endTime":1734.5,"body":"In 2007, German growth domestic product"},{"startTime":1734.5,"endTime":1739.5,"body":"was 10.4 times that of Greece,"},{"startTime":1734.5,"endTime":1739.5,"body":"in 2015, it was 15 times."},{"startTime":1741.13,"endTime":1743.09,"body":"The Euro remained floored."},{"startTime":1743.09,"endTime":1746.76,"body":"It was a monetary union"},{"startTime":1743.09,"endTime":1746.76,"body":"without a banking union"},{"startTime":1746.76,"endTime":1748.713,"body":"and without a fiscal union."},{"startTime":1750.34,"endTime":1753.61,"body":"So what were the consequences of this set"},{"startTime":1753.61,"endTime":1756.123,"body":"of policies that I've been outlining?"},{"startTime":1757.04,"endTime":1761.107,"body":"Well, the good thing was,"},{"startTime":1757.04,"endTime":1761.107,"body":"that the action of the fed"},{"startTime":1761.107,"endTime":1765.1,"body":"and the China prevented a"},{"startTime":1761.107,"endTime":1765.1,"body":"second great depression."},{"startTime":1765.1,"endTime":1767.283,"body":"But there were also major shortcomings."},{"startTime":1768.64,"endTime":1772.08,"body":"Austerity hit those"},{"startTime":1768.64,"endTime":1772.08,"body":"who were already losing"},{"startTime":1772.08,"endTime":1776.07,"body":"from globalization and"},{"startTime":1772.08,"endTime":1776.07,"body":"de-industrialization."},{"startTime":1776.07,"endTime":1778.3,"body":"There was a continued"},{"startTime":1776.07,"endTime":1778.3,"body":"rise in what I called"},{"startTime":1778.3,"endTime":1782.393,"body":"in a previous lecture"},{"startTime":1778.3,"endTime":1782.393,"body":"precarious or lousy jobs."},{"startTime":1784.41,"endTime":1787.33,"body":"As you've seen, monetary"},{"startTime":1784.41,"endTime":1787.33,"body":"policy led to an increase"},{"startTime":1787.33,"endTime":1791.09,"body":"in the value of assets,"},{"startTime":1787.33,"endTime":1791.09,"body":"that helped the rich"},{"startTime":1791.09,"endTime":1794.72,"body":"and that led to growing"},{"startTime":1791.09,"endTime":1794.72,"body":"levels of inequality,"},{"startTime":1794.72,"endTime":1797.38,"body":"which is captured by"},{"startTime":1794.72,"endTime":1797.38,"body":"Thomas Piketty's graph,"},{"startTime":1797.38,"endTime":1802.38,"body":"showing the top 1%, gaining"},{"startTime":1797.38,"endTime":1802.38,"body":"at the expense of the rest."},{"startTime":1803.21,"endTime":1808.098,"body":"And that graph showing"},{"startTime":1803.21,"endTime":1808.098,"body":"the growth by the top 1%"},{"startTime":1808.098,"endTime":1811.72,"body":"and the squeeze on the"},{"startTime":1808.098,"endTime":1811.72,"body":"other 99% has been called"},{"startTime":1811.72,"endTime":1814.46,"body":"the graph that occupied wall street."},{"startTime":1814.46,"endTime":1818.82,"body":"Although my slide here actually"},{"startTime":1814.46,"endTime":1818.82,"body":"shows St. Paul's Cathedral."},{"startTime":1818.82,"endTime":1822.113,"body":"And it was that sort of"},{"startTime":1818.82,"endTime":1822.113,"body":"complaint, which led to populism."},{"startTime":1823.71,"endTime":1826.96,"body":"I've also pointed out that the support"},{"startTime":1826.96,"endTime":1830.37,"body":"for the financial sector"},{"startTime":1826.96,"endTime":1830.37,"body":"and large banks meant"},{"startTime":1830.37,"endTime":1832.19,"body":"that they became still larger"},{"startTime":1832.19,"endTime":1836.663,"body":"and made the too big to"},{"startTime":1832.19,"endTime":1836.663,"body":"fail problem even greater."},{"startTime":1839.06,"endTime":1841.973,"body":"There was no action taken"},{"startTime":1839.06,"endTime":1841.973,"body":"on financial regulation."},{"startTime":1843.11,"endTime":1846.83,"body":"And although there was"},{"startTime":1843.11,"endTime":1846.83,"body":"some reform of Obamacare,"},{"startTime":1846.83,"endTime":1850.393,"body":"the social safety net in the"},{"startTime":1846.83,"endTime":1850.393,"body":"United States remained weak."},{"startTime":1852.16,"endTime":1854.82,"body":"I've also suggested that"},{"startTime":1852.16,"endTime":1854.82,"body":"flaws in the Euro zone"},{"startTime":1854.82,"endTime":1856.64,"body":"were not removed."},{"startTime":1856.64,"endTime":1859.55,"body":"There was a monetary union"},{"startTime":1856.64,"endTime":1859.55,"body":"without a fiscal union"},{"startTime":1859.55,"endTime":1861.463,"body":"without a neutralization of debt."},{"startTime":1862.68,"endTime":1867.48,"body":"And although the actions of"},{"startTime":1862.68,"endTime":1867.48,"body":"the fed and of China helped"},{"startTime":1867.48,"endTime":1868.963,"body":"they were not coordinated."},{"startTime":1870.3,"endTime":1872.67,"body":"They were both acting in"},{"startTime":1870.3,"endTime":1872.67,"body":"their own self-interest."},{"startTime":1872.67,"endTime":1873.91,"body":"What would happen if their interest,"},{"startTime":1873.91,"endTime":1877.54,"body":"did not coincide in a future crisis."},{"startTime":1877.54,"endTime":1879.463,"body":"Were there any coordinating mechanism?"},{"startTime":1881.61,"endTime":1884.26,"body":"And the inequality that"},{"startTime":1881.61,"endTime":1884.26,"body":"I've been referring to,"},{"startTime":1884.26,"endTime":1887.34,"body":"did not only lead to"},{"startTime":1884.26,"endTime":1887.34,"body":"tensions within countries,"},{"startTime":1887.34,"endTime":1890.24,"body":"but also contributed to"},{"startTime":1887.34,"endTime":1890.24,"body":"macroeconomic imbalances"},{"startTime":1890.24,"endTime":1891.873,"body":"between countries."},{"startTime":1893.1,"endTime":1896.67,"body":"In China, domestic demand was weak,"},{"startTime":1896.67,"endTime":1899.27,"body":"they relied upon exports."},{"startTime":1899.27,"endTime":1901.26,"body":"And similarly in Germany,"},{"startTime":1901.26,"endTime":1905.54,"body":"high savings meant that"},{"startTime":1901.26,"endTime":1905.54,"body":"they exported goods."},{"startTime":1905.54,"endTime":1907.27,"body":"And where did they export goods?"},{"startTime":1907.27,"endTime":1908.853,"body":"To the United States."},{"startTime":1909.696,"endTime":1910.82,"body":"And the United States covered"},{"startTime":1910.82,"endTime":1913.57,"body":"its deficit by producing dollars."},{"startTime":1913.57,"endTime":1917.45,"body":"It had the ability as a"},{"startTime":1913.57,"endTime":1917.45,"body":"global currency to do that."},{"startTime":1917.45,"endTime":1919.2,"body":"How stable is that system"},{"startTime":1919.2,"endTime":1922.463,"body":"with those macroeconomic imbalances?"},{"startTime":1923.57,"endTime":1925.75,"body":"So I'm arguing that the response"},{"startTime":1925.75,"endTime":1928.81,"body":"to global financial crisis did not resolve"},{"startTime":1928.81,"endTime":1931.59,"body":"the fundamental problems"},{"startTime":1928.81,"endTime":1931.59,"body":"that led to the crisis"},{"startTime":1931.59,"endTime":1932.703,"body":"in the first place."},{"startTime":1933.75,"endTime":1938.75,"body":"Neoliberalism had survived the"},{"startTime":1933.75,"endTime":1938.75,"body":"crisis that it had created."},{"startTime":1941.15,"endTime":1942.273,"body":"Then COVID hit."},{"startTime":1943.8,"endTime":1946.28,"body":"What would be done in response?"},{"startTime":1946.28,"endTime":1949.09,"body":"What is the point at which a new order,"},{"startTime":1949.09,"endTime":1953.22,"body":"a new form of capitalism"},{"startTime":1949.09,"endTime":1953.22,"body":"could emerge as it did"},{"startTime":1953.22,"endTime":1954.91,"body":"after the great depression"},{"startTime":1954.91,"endTime":1957.753,"body":"and after the crisis of the 1970s?"},{"startTime":1960.41,"endTime":1964.253,"body":"So this is what I want"},{"startTime":1960.41,"endTime":1964.253,"body":"to talk about now is,"},{"startTime":1965.13,"endTime":1969.37,"body":"can there be a building of"},{"startTime":1965.13,"endTime":1969.37,"body":"a fairer form of capitalism?"},{"startTime":1969.37,"endTime":1974.37,"body":"Or will there be a pushback"},{"startTime":1969.37,"endTime":1974.37,"body":"and a return to the status quo?"},{"startTime":1975.53,"endTime":1980.53,"body":"Now this is moving from"},{"startTime":1975.53,"endTime":1980.53,"body":"history into prediction,"},{"startTime":1980.57,"endTime":1982.203,"body":"and this is not easy."},{"startTime":1983.14,"endTime":1987.897,"body":"In 1933 Keynes commented that,"},{"startTime":1987.897,"endTime":1992.19,"body":"\"the decadent international,"},{"startTime":1987.897,"endTime":1992.19,"body":"but individualistic capitalism"},{"startTime":1992.19,"endTime":1994.15,"body":"in the hands of which we found ourselves"},{"startTime":1994.15,"endTime":1997.6,"body":"after the first world,"},{"startTime":1994.15,"endTime":1997.6,"body":"war was not a success."},{"startTime":1997.6,"endTime":2000.06,"body":"It is not intelligent,"},{"startTime":1997.6,"endTime":2000.06,"body":"it is not beautiful,"},{"startTime":2000.06,"endTime":2002.6,"body":"it is not just, it is not virtuous"},{"startTime":2002.6,"endTime":2004.91,"body":"and it doesn't deliver the goods."},{"startTime":2004.91,"endTime":2009.91,"body":"In short, we dislike it and we"},{"startTime":2004.91,"endTime":2009.91,"body":"are beginning to despise it."},{"startTime":2010.17,"endTime":2012.72,"body":"But when we wonder what"},{"startTime":2010.17,"endTime":2012.72,"body":"to put in this place,"},{"startTime":2012.72,"endTime":2015.98,"body":"we are extremely perplexed.\""},{"startTime":2015.98,"endTime":2018.48,"body":"Well, I think we're in"},{"startTime":2015.98,"endTime":2018.48,"body":"much the same position now."},{"startTime":2019.44,"endTime":2022.96,"body":"Geopolitical tensions are"},{"startTime":2019.44,"endTime":2022.96,"body":"becoming as serious as they were"},{"startTime":2022.96,"endTime":2026.99,"body":"in 1933 when Hitler came to"},{"startTime":2022.96,"endTime":2026.99,"body":"par and Starling embarked"},{"startTime":2026.99,"endTime":2029.16,"body":"on collectivization of agriculture"},{"startTime":2029.16,"endTime":2031.38,"body":"and rapid industrialization"},{"startTime":2031.38,"endTime":2034.413,"body":"that led to famine, not least in Ukraine."},{"startTime":2036.46,"endTime":2040.05,"body":"When I proposed this"},{"startTime":2036.46,"endTime":2040.05,"body":"lecture series a year ago,"},{"startTime":2040.05,"endTime":2041.7,"body":"I thought it would be difficult to analyze"},{"startTime":2041.7,"endTime":2044.01,"body":"the impact of the pandemic."},{"startTime":2044.01,"endTime":2046.93,"body":"And now we are in the midst of"},{"startTime":2044.01,"endTime":2046.93,"body":"the worst geopolitical crisis"},{"startTime":2046.93,"endTime":2048.35,"body":"since the second world war,"},{"startTime":2048.35,"endTime":2051.863,"body":"which has profound consequences"},{"startTime":2048.35,"endTime":2051.863,"body":"for global economy."},{"startTime":2053.12,"endTime":2055.753,"body":"So we're at a difficult"},{"startTime":2053.12,"endTime":2055.753,"body":"stage, stage of perplexion."},{"startTime":2059.95,"endTime":2063.62,"body":"What might the future hold?"},{"startTime":2063.62,"endTime":2064.99,"body":"So I would like to argue that I think"},{"startTime":2064.99,"endTime":2067.22,"body":"that there should be change"},{"startTime":2067.22,"endTime":2069.67,"body":"that just as embedded liberalism arose"},{"startTime":2069.67,"endTime":2071.79,"body":"in response for great depression,"},{"startTime":2071.79,"endTime":2075.959,"body":"and neoliberalism in response"},{"startTime":2071.79,"endTime":2075.959,"body":"to the crisis of the 1970s."},{"startTime":2075.959,"endTime":2079.85,"body":"We might now be at a stage,"},{"startTime":2075.959,"endTime":2079.85,"body":"where we could create"},{"startTime":2079.85,"endTime":2082.233,"body":"a fairer, more inclusive capitalism."},{"startTime":2083.43,"endTime":2086.93,"body":"The shift did not occur after"},{"startTime":2083.43,"endTime":2086.93,"body":"the global financial crisis,"},{"startTime":2086.93,"endTime":2089.473,"body":"we just as vulnerable to the pandemic."},{"startTime":2090.68,"endTime":2093.58,"body":"Is it now the time for change,"},{"startTime":2093.58,"endTime":2095.99,"body":"which will create greater resilience,"},{"startTime":2095.99,"endTime":2098.853,"body":"political, economic, and social stability."},{"startTime":2100.92,"endTime":2103.8,"body":"Is a new social contract needed?"},{"startTime":2103.8,"endTime":2107.32,"body":"Well, let me suggest what is needed"},{"startTime":2107.32,"endTime":2109.83,"body":"and how some of the"},{"startTime":2107.32,"endTime":2109.83,"body":"debates have now started,"},{"startTime":2109.83,"endTime":2111.79,"body":"not just from the progressive left,"},{"startTime":2111.79,"endTime":2114.09,"body":"but also from capitalists themselves"},{"startTime":2114.09,"endTime":2116.833,"body":"who feel that there is a need for change."},{"startTime":2118.86,"endTime":2122.623,"body":"So, first of all, perhaps"},{"startTime":2118.86,"endTime":2122.623,"body":"we should reform economics."},{"startTime":2123.86,"endTime":2128.127,"body":"John Kay, a leading British"},{"startTime":2123.86,"endTime":2128.127,"body":"economist complained, I quote"},{"startTime":2128.127,"endTime":2130.68,"body":"\"university economists"},{"startTime":2128.127,"endTime":2130.68,"body":"of the sort gathered"},{"startTime":2130.68,"endTime":2134.1,"body":"at Bretton Woods are now"},{"startTime":2130.68,"endTime":2134.1,"body":"under relentless pressure"},{"startTime":2134.1,"endTime":2138.27,"body":"to conform to a narrow"},{"startTime":2134.1,"endTime":2138.27,"body":"established paradigm.\""},{"startTime":2138.27,"endTime":2139.66,"body":"So he said that at Bretton Woods,"},{"startTime":2139.66,"endTime":2141.93,"body":"there were a huge eclectic range of views"},{"startTime":2141.93,"endTime":2144.55,"body":"now it's been narrowed down by a dominant,"},{"startTime":2144.55,"endTime":2146.83,"body":"entrenched professional norm."},{"startTime":2146.83,"endTime":2150.69,"body":"There are some signs of change"},{"startTime":2146.83,"endTime":2150.69,"body":"occurring, John Kay himself,"},{"startTime":2150.69,"endTime":2152.61,"body":"perhaps we need to push that further."},{"startTime":2152.61,"endTime":2155.26,"body":"And many students at"},{"startTime":2152.61,"endTime":2155.26,"body":"universities are demanding that."},{"startTime":2157.32,"endTime":2160.0,"body":"The next point, is that we need to tackle,"},{"startTime":2160.0,"endTime":2162.12,"body":"unearned increments or rents."},{"startTime":2162.12,"endTime":2164.88,"body":"The high level of profits being obtained"},{"startTime":2164.88,"endTime":2167.94,"body":"by like social structures,"},{"startTime":2167.94,"endTime":2172.873,"body":"by the ability of large"},{"startTime":2167.94,"endTime":2172.873,"body":"companies to exclude newcomers"},{"startTime":2174.78,"endTime":2178.59,"body":"In the new deal, Corporate"},{"startTime":2174.78,"endTime":2178.59,"body":"power was viewed as a threat"},{"startTime":2178.59,"endTime":2181.833,"body":"to democracy and to economic dynamism."},{"startTime":2183.07,"endTime":2187.4,"body":"In the 1970s, it was"},{"startTime":2183.07,"endTime":2187.4,"body":"assumed on the contrary"},{"startTime":2187.4,"endTime":2190.64,"body":"that large firms benefited the consumer"},{"startTime":2191.48,"endTime":2194.15,"body":"and that corporate"},{"startTime":2191.48,"endTime":2194.15,"body":"success was best measured"},{"startTime":2194.15,"endTime":2195.643,"body":"by shareholder value."},{"startTime":2198.72,"endTime":2201.9,"body":"Some people are now"},{"startTime":2198.72,"endTime":2201.9,"body":"criticizing shareholder value"},{"startTime":2201.9,"endTime":2205.0,"body":"as shortsighted and destructive,"},{"startTime":2205.0,"endTime":2208.34,"body":"and instead call for stakeholder value"},{"startTime":2208.34,"endTime":2212.35,"body":"to cover not only the owners"},{"startTime":2208.34,"endTime":2212.35,"body":"of shares of equities,"},{"startTime":2212.35,"endTime":2216.723,"body":"but workers, customers, suppliers,"},{"startTime":2212.35,"endTime":2216.723,"body":"and the public interest."},{"startTime":2217.61,"endTime":2221.48,"body":"To Joseph Stiglitz a Nobel"},{"startTime":2217.61,"endTime":2221.48,"body":"prize in the economist,"},{"startTime":2221.48,"endTime":2225.14,"body":"dominance by large firms, which we now see"},{"startTime":2225.14,"endTime":2228.77,"body":"is what he calls a sachs capitalism."},{"startTime":2228.77,"endTime":2232.403,"body":"Genuine capitalism he"},{"startTime":2228.77,"endTime":2232.403,"body":"says requires competition."},{"startTime":2234.93,"endTime":2239.93,"body":"The IMF found that then an"},{"startTime":2234.93,"endTime":2239.93,"body":"increase in the market power"},{"startTime":2240.06,"endTime":2244.0,"body":"of large firms in advanced economies,"},{"startTime":2244.0,"endTime":2247.54,"body":"led to an increase in the"},{"startTime":2244.0,"endTime":2247.54,"body":"markup of goods of prices"},{"startTime":2247.54,"endTime":2249.63,"body":"over marginal costs."},{"startTime":2249.63,"endTime":2252.12,"body":"So profits were going up,"},{"startTime":2252.12,"endTime":2255.95,"body":"but the share of labor"},{"startTime":2252.12,"endTime":2255.95,"body":"income by value added,"},{"startTime":2255.95,"endTime":2259.11,"body":"fell by five percentage points."},{"startTime":2259.11,"endTime":2260.97,"body":"The result of that they say,"},{"startTime":2260.97,"endTime":2265.15,"body":"is the reduced incentive to"},{"startTime":2260.97,"endTime":2265.15,"body":"invest in productivity growth."},{"startTime":2265.15,"endTime":2267.34,"body":"If your profits are already high,"},{"startTime":2267.34,"endTime":2269.13,"body":"labor income is being squeezed,"},{"startTime":2269.13,"endTime":2272.833,"body":"why bother to invest"},{"startTime":2269.13,"endTime":2272.833,"body":"capital in productivity?"},{"startTime":2274.03,"endTime":2277.34,"body":"This has led to what's been"},{"startTime":2274.03,"endTime":2277.34,"body":"called in one recent report"},{"startTime":2277.34,"endTime":2281.72,"body":"by United nations body"},{"startTime":2277.34,"endTime":2281.72,"body":"crocodile capitalism."},{"startTime":2281.72,"endTime":2285.89,"body":"That is to say the increase in profits"},{"startTime":2285.89,"endTime":2290.54,"body":"as against a decrease in labor income,"},{"startTime":2290.54,"endTime":2294.58,"body":"an opening jaw between capital and labor."},{"startTime":2294.58,"endTime":2297.75,"body":"Now this is not some left wing view."},{"startTime":2297.75,"endTime":2300.09,"body":"This is the IMF that's talking."},{"startTime":2300.09,"endTime":2304.76,"body":"And also the Peterson Institute"},{"startTime":2300.09,"endTime":2304.76,"body":"for International Economics,"},{"startTime":2304.76,"endTime":2307.1,"body":"a free market think tank."},{"startTime":2307.1,"endTime":2310.33,"body":"It pointed out, that during"},{"startTime":2307.1,"endTime":2310.33,"body":"the Bretton Woods era"},{"startTime":2310.33,"endTime":2313.92,"body":"from 1948 to 1973,"},{"startTime":2313.92,"endTime":2318.92,"body":"real median incomes in the"},{"startTime":2313.92,"endTime":2318.92,"body":"United States rose by 3% a year."},{"startTime":2321.91,"endTime":2325.49,"body":"And there was a 96% chance"},{"startTime":2321.91,"endTime":2325.49,"body":"that the next generation"},{"startTime":2325.49,"endTime":2326.733,"body":"will be better off."},{"startTime":2328.35,"endTime":2333.21,"body":"Since 1973, median family"},{"startTime":2328.35,"endTime":2333.21,"body":"income has only grown"},{"startTime":2333.21,"endTime":2338.21,"body":"by 0.4% a year and 28% of children"},{"startTime":2338.84,"endTime":2342.833,"body":"in the United States have lower"},{"startTime":2338.84,"endTime":2342.833,"body":"income than their parents."},{"startTime":2343.84,"endTime":2346.38,"body":"Now, the argument that"},{"startTime":2343.84,"endTime":2346.38,"body":"they're putting forward"},{"startTime":2346.38,"endTime":2350.6,"body":"is that the survival of"},{"startTime":2346.38,"endTime":2350.6,"body":"free market capitalism,"},{"startTime":2350.6,"endTime":2354.64,"body":"requires a response to"},{"startTime":2350.6,"endTime":2354.64,"body":"a growing disillusion,"},{"startTime":2354.64,"endTime":2357.693,"body":"but whether it's delivering"},{"startTime":2354.64,"endTime":2357.693,"body":"the goods as Keynes put it."},{"startTime":2358.67,"endTime":2361.68,"body":"And a need for a response,"},{"startTime":2361.68,"endTime":2364.423,"body":"which is more creative than populism."},{"startTime":2365.47,"endTime":2368.78,"body":"So restoring competition"},{"startTime":2365.47,"endTime":2368.78,"body":"through antitrust policy"},{"startTime":2368.78,"endTime":2370.63,"body":"might be a start."},{"startTime":2370.63,"endTime":2374.09,"body":"But it's also necessary to"},{"startTime":2370.63,"endTime":2374.09,"body":"transform corporate behavior"},{"startTime":2374.09,"endTime":2377.913,"body":"from shareholder value"},{"startTime":2374.09,"endTime":2377.913,"body":"to wider social purposes."},{"startTime":2378.79,"endTime":2381.79,"body":"And that point has been made in 2020"},{"startTime":2381.79,"endTime":2386.02,"body":"by 181 leading corporations,"},{"startTime":2386.02,"endTime":2389.713,"body":"which issued a statement on"},{"startTime":2386.02,"endTime":2389.713,"body":"the purpose of corporation."},{"startTime":2391.01,"endTime":2395.18,"body":"Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan called for action"},{"startTime":2395.18,"endTime":2399.66,"body":"on what he called the fraying"},{"startTime":2395.18,"endTime":2399.66,"body":"of the American dream."},{"startTime":2399.66,"endTime":2403.1,"body":"He called for spending on"},{"startTime":2399.66,"endTime":2403.1,"body":"education and infrastructure"},{"startTime":2403.1,"endTime":2405.353,"body":"even if it meant more taxes,"},{"startTime":2406.53,"endTime":2409.0,"body":"Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates,"},{"startTime":2409.0,"endTime":2411.18,"body":"the world's largest hedge fund,"},{"startTime":2411.18,"endTime":2415.49,"body":"said that capitalism must evolve or die."},{"startTime":2415.49,"endTime":2417.97,"body":"As he put it I'm a capitalist,"},{"startTime":2417.97,"endTime":2421.123,"body":"and even I think capitalism is broken."},{"startTime":2424.23,"endTime":2426.79,"body":"Another set of policies that is needed"},{"startTime":2426.79,"endTime":2430.273,"body":"is to fix what I called lousy jobs."},{"startTime":2431.58,"endTime":2435.93,"body":"De-industrialization meant a"},{"startTime":2431.58,"endTime":2435.93,"body":"loss of well paid secure jobs"},{"startTime":2435.93,"endTime":2439.14,"body":"for workers who lacked"},{"startTime":2435.93,"endTime":2439.14,"body":"formal qualifications."},{"startTime":2439.14,"endTime":2442.35,"body":"So workers in Dagenham or Detroit working"},{"startTime":2442.35,"endTime":2444.68,"body":"in car plants and so on."},{"startTime":2444.68,"endTime":2447.36,"body":"Instead there was a growth of employment"},{"startTime":2447.36,"endTime":2449.836,"body":"in precarious Lousy jobs."},{"startTime":2449.836,"endTime":2452.32,"body":"And that was very true"},{"startTime":2449.836,"endTime":2452.32,"body":"during the COVID period"},{"startTime":2452.32,"endTime":2455.19,"body":"with low pay stankin stark contrast"},{"startTime":2455.19,"endTime":2458.99,"body":"with jobs for those with"},{"startTime":2455.19,"endTime":2458.99,"body":"formal qualifications."},{"startTime":2458.99,"endTime":2462.55,"body":"So what we need of course is leveling up"},{"startTime":2463.972,"endTime":2465.81,"body":"the policy of the British government"},{"startTime":2465.81,"endTime":2470.693,"body":"to revitalize declining cities"},{"startTime":2465.81,"endTime":2470.693,"body":"by place based policies."},{"startTime":2471.61,"endTime":2475.26,"body":"A firm is unlikely to"},{"startTime":2471.61,"endTime":2475.26,"body":"relocate to a decaying city,"},{"startTime":2475.26,"endTime":2477.66,"body":"unless there's a wider"},{"startTime":2475.26,"endTime":2477.66,"body":"cluster of enterprise"},{"startTime":2477.66,"endTime":2480.25,"body":"and physical and social infrastructures."},{"startTime":2480.25,"endTime":2482.13,"body":"It's vital to assist, to pioneers,"},{"startTime":2482.13,"endTime":2485.44,"body":"moving into these towns"},{"startTime":2482.13,"endTime":2485.44,"body":"with government support,"},{"startTime":2485.44,"endTime":2487.77,"body":"from development banks or business zones,"},{"startTime":2487.77,"endTime":2489.7,"body":"investment promotion agencies,"},{"startTime":2489.7,"endTime":2491.503,"body":"better education and retraining,"},{"startTime":2492.5,"endTime":2494.44,"body":"and these powerful local government,"},{"startTime":2494.44,"endTime":2496.41,"body":"as well as central activity."},{"startTime":2496.41,"endTime":2498.69,"body":"Now this process is going to be difficult"},{"startTime":2498.69,"endTime":2500.96,"body":"and will take time."},{"startTime":2500.96,"endTime":2504.1,"body":"But leveling up by itself is not enough."},{"startTime":2504.1,"endTime":2509.1,"body":"I would also suggest a need"},{"startTime":2504.1,"endTime":2509.1,"body":"to regulate banks and finance."},{"startTime":2510.21,"endTime":2514.42,"body":"In 2015, the Bank of"},{"startTime":2510.21,"endTime":2514.42,"body":"International Settlements"},{"startTime":2514.42,"endTime":2518.567,"body":"that is the Central Banks"},{"startTime":2514.42,"endTime":2518.567,"body":"bank worried and I quote,"},{"startTime":2518.567,"endTime":2520.96,"body":"\"that the level of financial development"},{"startTime":2520.96,"endTime":2524.98,"body":"is a good only up to a"},{"startTime":2520.96,"endTime":2524.98,"body":"point after which it becomes"},{"startTime":2524.98,"endTime":2527.48,"body":"a drag on growth.\""},{"startTime":2527.48,"endTime":2532.26,"body":"Gita Gopinath the Chief"},{"startTime":2527.48,"endTime":2532.26,"body":"Economist of the IMF agreed."},{"startTime":2532.26,"endTime":2536.07,"body":"She said there was a mismatch"},{"startTime":2532.26,"endTime":2536.07,"body":"between global finance"},{"startTime":2536.07,"endTime":2538.36,"body":"and national regulation."},{"startTime":2538.36,"endTime":2541.5,"body":"Countries she said, engage"},{"startTime":2538.36,"endTime":2541.5,"body":"in a race to the bottom"},{"startTime":2541.5,"endTime":2544.48,"body":"with lax regulations"},{"startTime":2541.5,"endTime":2544.48,"body":"so as to win the favor"},{"startTime":2544.48,"endTime":2546.69,"body":"of the financial services industry"},{"startTime":2546.69,"endTime":2549.23,"body":"while imposing large costs"},{"startTime":2546.69,"endTime":2549.23,"body":"on the rest of the world,"},{"startTime":2549.23,"endTime":2551.41,"body":"through financial crises."},{"startTime":2551.41,"endTime":2554.1,"body":"The lessons you said"},{"startTime":2551.41,"endTime":2554.1,"body":"of the financial crisis"},{"startTime":2554.1,"endTime":2557.13,"body":"should highlight the cost"},{"startTime":2554.1,"endTime":2557.13,"body":"of weak financial regulation"},{"startTime":2557.13,"endTime":2559.72,"body":"and the virtues of"},{"startTime":2557.13,"endTime":2559.72,"body":"international coordination"},{"startTime":2559.72,"endTime":2561.933,"body":"of regulatory standards."},{"startTime":2563.84,"endTime":2566.47,"body":"Well, the question is"},{"startTime":2563.84,"endTime":2566.47,"body":"whether the entrenched power"},{"startTime":2566.47,"endTime":2570.053,"body":"of finance can be overcome"},{"startTime":2566.47,"endTime":2570.053,"body":"to allow that to happen."},{"startTime":2571.34,"endTime":2573.12,"body":"Now, there is some sign of this"},{"startTime":2573.12,"endTime":2576.023,"body":"in relationship to capital controls."},{"startTime":2577.91,"endTime":2581.84,"body":"The Bretton Woods agreement after 1945,"},{"startTime":2581.84,"endTime":2585.02,"body":"assumed that capital"},{"startTime":2581.84,"endTime":2585.02,"body":"flows could be controlled"},{"startTime":2585.02,"endTime":2587.92,"body":"to protect domestic economies."},{"startTime":2587.92,"endTime":2591.03,"body":"In the 1970s, the IMF moved from that"},{"startTime":2591.03,"endTime":2593.34,"body":"to encourage financial liberalization,"},{"startTime":2593.34,"endTime":2595.033,"body":"to encourage capital flows."},{"startTime":2595.96,"endTime":2599.46,"body":"In 2020, there was sign"},{"startTime":2595.96,"endTime":2599.46,"body":"that the IMF was moving back"},{"startTime":2599.46,"endTime":2600.733,"body":"to it's earlier position."},{"startTime":2601.76,"endTime":2605.06,"body":"Its integrated policy framework accepted"},{"startTime":2605.06,"endTime":2609.29,"body":"the cross border capsule"},{"startTime":2605.06,"endTime":2609.29,"body":"flows to produce shocks"},{"startTime":2609.29,"endTime":2611.02,"body":"as well as benefits."},{"startTime":2611.02,"endTime":2613.9,"body":"The policy makers should"},{"startTime":2611.02,"endTime":2613.9,"body":"be able to draw upon"},{"startTime":2613.9,"endTime":2616.77,"body":"an eclectic mix of tools that varied"},{"startTime":2616.77,"endTime":2618.96,"body":"over time between countries."},{"startTime":2618.96,"endTime":2621.98,"body":"And what it tried to"},{"startTime":2618.96,"endTime":2621.98,"body":"provide was a framework"},{"startTime":2621.98,"endTime":2624.27,"body":"within which policy makers"},{"startTime":2621.98,"endTime":2624.27,"body":"in different countries"},{"startTime":2624.27,"endTime":2626.21,"body":"could look for the best solution."},{"startTime":2626.21,"endTime":2630.513,"body":"In other words, it was a turn"},{"startTime":2626.21,"endTime":2630.513,"body":"from dogmatism to pragmatism."},{"startTime":2631.84,"endTime":2633.95,"body":"Now, nevertheless, there"},{"startTime":2631.84,"endTime":2633.95,"body":"are still problems here"},{"startTime":2633.95,"endTime":2636.933,"body":"about capital, about the level of debt."},{"startTime":2638.67,"endTime":2643.67,"body":"One is the growing power"},{"startTime":2638.67,"endTime":2643.67,"body":"of China as a creditor."},{"startTime":2644.54,"endTime":2647.46,"body":"China as you see from the graph here"},{"startTime":2647.46,"endTime":2652.02,"body":"is now the largest official"},{"startTime":2647.46,"endTime":2652.02,"body":"lender to the developing world,"},{"startTime":2652.02,"endTime":2656.92,"body":"but it is not a member of the"},{"startTime":2652.02,"endTime":2656.92,"body":"Paris Club of governments,"},{"startTime":2656.92,"endTime":2660.11,"body":"which tried to coordinate"},{"startTime":2656.92,"endTime":2660.11,"body":"debt re-scheduling."},{"startTime":2660.11,"endTime":2662.63,"body":"Chinese loans are secured by assets,"},{"startTime":2662.63,"endTime":2665.3,"body":"such as ports in Sri Lanka for example,"},{"startTime":2665.3,"endTime":2669.3,"body":"which is seen by the United"},{"startTime":2665.3,"endTime":2669.3,"body":"States as a strategic incursion."},{"startTime":2669.3,"endTime":2673.063,"body":"So this is an area of problem."},{"startTime":2674.15,"endTime":2678.59,"body":"Also COVID meant that indebted"},{"startTime":2674.15,"endTime":2678.59,"body":"countries borrowed more"},{"startTime":2679.54,"endTime":2681.72,"body":"with a risk of default."},{"startTime":2681.72,"endTime":2685.63,"body":"And the ability of the"},{"startTime":2681.72,"endTime":2685.63,"body":"international community"},{"startTime":2685.63,"endTime":2688.393,"body":"to resolve that has been rather weak."},{"startTime":2690.78,"endTime":2694.47,"body":"In Adam Tooze's view, the"},{"startTime":2690.78,"endTime":2694.47,"body":"actions from the center"},{"startTime":2694.47,"endTime":2697.023,"body":"from international bodies"},{"startTime":2694.47,"endTime":2697.023,"body":"has been a mockery."},{"startTime":2697.97,"endTime":2701.28,"body":"And now of course we"},{"startTime":2697.97,"endTime":2701.28,"body":"face a Russian default,"},{"startTime":2701.28,"endTime":2705.497,"body":"which hasn't happened since August, 1998."},{"startTime":2705.497,"endTime":2708.283,"body":"And what will the fallout of that be?"},{"startTime":2710.93,"endTime":2714.07,"body":"But also, we need to"},{"startTime":2710.93,"endTime":2714.07,"body":"remember the large part"},{"startTime":2714.07,"endTime":2717.3,"body":"of capital flows of"},{"startTime":2714.07,"endTime":2717.3,"body":"foreign direct investment"},{"startTime":2717.3,"endTime":2720.21,"body":"is actually what is"},{"startTime":2717.3,"endTime":2720.21,"body":"called Phantom investment."},{"startTime":2720.21,"endTime":2725.07,"body":"That is a say it's about tax"},{"startTime":2720.21,"endTime":2725.07,"body":"avoidance about moving profits"},{"startTime":2725.07,"endTime":2728.61,"body":"to low tax regimes rather"},{"startTime":2725.07,"endTime":2728.61,"body":"than actual investment"},{"startTime":2728.61,"endTime":2730.313,"body":"in physical infrastructure."},{"startTime":2731.47,"endTime":2734.49,"body":"That creates unfairness between mobile"},{"startTime":2734.49,"endTime":2736.23,"body":"and less mobile capital"},{"startTime":2737.855,"endTime":2740.873,"body":"between companies that can"},{"startTime":2737.855,"endTime":2740.873,"body":"and cannot shift profit."},{"startTime":2741.86,"endTime":2743.89,"body":"And this is another major change,"},{"startTime":2743.89,"endTime":2748.6,"body":"which is needed of a form in"},{"startTime":2743.89,"endTime":2748.6,"body":"the international tax regime."},{"startTime":2748.6,"endTime":2752.203,"body":"And this is as important as leveling up."},{"startTime":2754.4,"endTime":2756.06,"body":"There has been a race to the bottom"},{"startTime":2756.06,"endTime":2758.77,"body":"in the global average of corporate tax,"},{"startTime":2758.77,"endTime":2763.77,"body":"which has fallen from 40% in"},{"startTime":2758.77,"endTime":2763.77,"body":"1990 to around 25% in 2017."},{"startTime":2765.35,"endTime":2767.9,"body":"Companies avoid tax by booking profits"},{"startTime":2767.9,"endTime":2770.24,"body":"in low tax jurisdictions."},{"startTime":2770.24,"endTime":2773.82,"body":"So we have the issue here of tax havens."},{"startTime":2773.82,"endTime":2778.82,"body":"We have the problem of falling"},{"startTime":2773.82,"endTime":2778.82,"body":"levels of corporate tax."},{"startTime":2779.52,"endTime":2784.39,"body":"We have calls from the"},{"startTime":2779.52,"endTime":2784.39,"body":"so-called patriotic millionaires"},{"startTime":2784.39,"endTime":2787.24,"body":"for high levels of inheritance tax"},{"startTime":2787.24,"endTime":2789.21,"body":"to break up passive wealth."},{"startTime":2789.21,"endTime":2791.433,"body":"And they've also called for wealth tax."},{"startTime":2792.62,"endTime":2796.14,"body":"The Institute for Fiscal"},{"startTime":2792.62,"endTime":2796.14,"body":"Studies here in Britain"},{"startTime":2796.14,"endTime":2800.77,"body":"has pointed to a large"},{"startTime":2796.14,"endTime":2800.77,"body":"unjustified and problematic bias"},{"startTime":2800.77,"endTime":2803.96,"body":"against employment and labor incomes"},{"startTime":2803.96,"endTime":2807.8,"body":"in favor of business"},{"startTime":2803.96,"endTime":2807.8,"body":"ownership and capital incomes."},{"startTime":2807.8,"endTime":2810.46,"body":"So the asset values that have gone up,"},{"startTime":2810.46,"endTime":2813.94,"body":"if they realize pay a lower"},{"startTime":2810.46,"endTime":2813.94,"body":"level of capital gains tax,"},{"startTime":2813.94,"endTime":2817.35,"body":"than income from employment."},{"startTime":2817.35,"endTime":2820.02,"body":"And this has been exacerbated by the use"},{"startTime":2820.02,"endTime":2822.41,"body":"of national insurance contributions"},{"startTime":2822.41,"endTime":2825.8,"body":"to fund social and healthcare,"},{"startTime":2825.8,"endTime":2827.88,"body":"which falls upon earned income"},{"startTime":2829.44,"endTime":2833.41,"body":"and not upon income"},{"startTime":2829.44,"endTime":2833.41,"body":"coming from capital gains"},{"startTime":2833.41,"endTime":2835.513,"body":"or dividends and so on."},{"startTime":2838.32,"endTime":2839.66,"body":"And that is necessary."},{"startTime":2839.66,"endTime":2843.36,"body":"Change that is necessary in order to deal"},{"startTime":2843.36,"endTime":2846.54,"body":"with that inequality"},{"startTime":2843.36,"endTime":2846.54,"body":"that I was talking about"},{"startTime":2846.54,"endTime":2850.24,"body":"in the way that quantity"},{"startTime":2846.54,"endTime":2850.24,"body":"easing has affected of assets"},{"startTime":2850.24,"endTime":2853.62,"body":"while austerity has hit poor families."},{"startTime":2853.62,"endTime":2857.89,"body":"And here we see a slide"},{"startTime":2853.62,"endTime":2857.89,"body":"from the United States,"},{"startTime":2857.89,"endTime":2860.97,"body":"which compares the"},{"startTime":2857.89,"endTime":2860.97,"body":"increase in pandemic wealth"},{"startTime":2860.97,"endTime":2864.92,"body":"for Jeff Bezos or the owners of Walmart"},{"startTime":2864.92,"endTime":2866.75,"body":"against the hazard pay,"},{"startTime":2866.75,"endTime":2869.77,"body":"as it's called the extra"},{"startTime":2866.75,"endTime":2869.77,"body":"pay given to workers."},{"startTime":2869.77,"endTime":2873.633,"body":"And you see how inequal it is."},{"startTime":2875.14,"endTime":2879.96,"body":"And this has led the IMF to"},{"startTime":2875.14,"endTime":2879.96,"body":"call for a solidarity tax"},{"startTime":2881.52,"endTime":2884.403,"body":"in order to try and create"},{"startTime":2881.52,"endTime":2884.403,"body":"more senses social cohesion."},{"startTime":2885.68,"endTime":2888.35,"body":"That is supported also by Morris Pearl,"},{"startTime":2888.35,"endTime":2892.11,"body":"a former director of the"},{"startTime":2888.35,"endTime":2892.11,"body":"financial house BlackRock."},{"startTime":2892.11,"endTime":2893.92,"body":"As he put it, given the choice"},{"startTime":2893.92,"endTime":2897.963,"body":"between pitch forks and"},{"startTime":2893.92,"endTime":2897.963,"body":"taxes, I'm choosing taxes."},{"startTime":2898.99,"endTime":2901.18,"body":"But it's been very"},{"startTime":2898.99,"endTime":2901.18,"body":"difficult for the Democrats"},{"startTime":2901.18,"endTime":2905.17,"body":"in the United States to tax"},{"startTime":2901.18,"endTime":2905.17,"body":"the wealthiest households."},{"startTime":2905.17,"endTime":2908.06,"body":"An attempt to introduce"},{"startTime":2905.17,"endTime":2908.06,"body":"a tax on households,"},{"startTime":2908.06,"endTime":2912.32,"body":"earning more than 100"},{"startTime":2908.06,"endTime":2912.32,"body":"million a year or with assets"},{"startTime":2912.32,"endTime":2915.283,"body":"of more than 1 billion failed."},{"startTime":2916.32,"endTime":2920.68,"body":"And I would argue the tax"},{"startTime":2916.32,"endTime":2920.68,"body":"reform is a high priority"},{"startTime":2920.68,"endTime":2922.49,"body":"for domestic stability,"},{"startTime":2922.49,"endTime":2925.81,"body":"especially now with cost"},{"startTime":2922.49,"endTime":2925.81,"body":"of living increases."},{"startTime":2925.81,"endTime":2928.49,"body":"Earnings are not rising"},{"startTime":2925.81,"endTime":2928.49,"body":"in line with inflation,"},{"startTime":2928.49,"endTime":2931.57,"body":"whereas pensions are index linked."},{"startTime":2931.57,"endTime":2934.377,"body":"There's a call for windfall"},{"startTime":2931.57,"endTime":2934.377,"body":"tax upon energy companies."},{"startTime":2934.377,"endTime":2937.9,"body":"And I think that the"},{"startTime":2934.377,"endTime":2937.9,"body":"shifting attitude on taxation"},{"startTime":2937.9,"endTime":2939.59,"body":"should encourage a shift back"},{"startTime":2939.59,"endTime":2942.12,"body":"to a more progressive tax regime,"},{"startTime":2942.12,"endTime":2945.74,"body":"which will be fundamental"},{"startTime":2942.12,"endTime":2945.74,"body":"to creating a more stable"},{"startTime":2945.74,"endTime":2948.373,"body":"and cohesive sort of society."},{"startTime":2950.32,"endTime":2951.69,"body":"But it's not only changing"},{"startTime":2951.69,"endTime":2955.42,"body":"the tax regime internally"},{"startTime":2951.69,"endTime":2955.42,"body":"or the distribution"},{"startTime":2955.42,"endTime":2957.01,"body":"of income and wealth internally,"},{"startTime":2957.01,"endTime":2960.943,"body":"we also need to fix the"},{"startTime":2957.01,"endTime":2960.943,"body":"macroeconomic global imbalance."},{"startTime":2962.6,"endTime":2964.57,"body":"And that would mean increasing"},{"startTime":2964.57,"endTime":2967.363,"body":"the level of domestic"},{"startTime":2964.57,"endTime":2967.363,"body":"consumption in China,"},{"startTime":2968.28,"endTime":2972.53,"body":"so they're less dependent upon"},{"startTime":2968.28,"endTime":2972.53,"body":"a high dependence on exports."},{"startTime":2972.53,"endTime":2975.62,"body":"It also means shifting the"},{"startTime":2972.53,"endTime":2975.62,"body":"United States high level"},{"startTime":2975.62,"endTime":2980.427,"body":"of domestic consumption"},{"startTime":2975.62,"endTime":2980.427,"body":"by relying upon debt."},{"startTime":2980.427,"endTime":2984.66,"body":"And that would be helped by"},{"startTime":2980.427,"endTime":2984.66,"body":"encouraging a redistribution"},{"startTime":2984.66,"endTime":2988.56,"body":"from the top 1% to the bottom 99%. ."},{"startTime":2988.56,"endTime":2993.2,"body":"Try and create again, a"},{"startTime":2988.56,"endTime":2993.2,"body":"more balanced stable system."},{"startTime":2993.2,"endTime":2995.52,"body":"Is this going to be possible?"},{"startTime":2995.52,"endTime":2999.56,"body":"Well, the United States has difficulties"},{"startTime":2999.56,"endTime":3003.143,"body":"of a rather dysfunctional and"},{"startTime":2999.56,"endTime":3003.143,"body":"polarized political system."},{"startTime":3004.25,"endTime":3007.653,"body":"It's been very difficult"},{"startTime":3004.25,"endTime":3007.653,"body":"to push things forward."},{"startTime":3008.83,"endTime":3013.78,"body":"It was suggested that"},{"startTime":3008.83,"endTime":3013.78,"body":"the response to COVID"},{"startTime":3014.82,"endTime":3017.05,"body":"did mark a cultural shift."},{"startTime":3017.05,"endTime":3019.91,"body":"The financial Times saw"},{"startTime":3017.05,"endTime":3019.91,"body":"it as being equivalent"},{"startTime":3019.91,"endTime":3021.053,"body":"to the new deal."},{"startTime":3022.95,"endTime":3026.21,"body":"I think that is rather exaggerated."},{"startTime":3026.21,"endTime":3030.54,"body":"If the Republicans take"},{"startTime":3026.21,"endTime":3030.54,"body":"control of Senate and the house"},{"startTime":3030.54,"endTime":3035.35,"body":"in the midterm elections,"},{"startTime":3030.54,"endTime":3035.35,"body":"will it be possible to shift"},{"startTime":3035.35,"endTime":3038.27,"body":"the tax regime in the way"},{"startTime":3035.35,"endTime":3038.27,"body":"I've been talking about?"},{"startTime":3038.27,"endTime":3040.46,"body":"Might there be a return to austerity,"},{"startTime":3040.46,"endTime":3043.11,"body":"a failure to redress inequality?"},{"startTime":3043.11,"endTime":3046.633,"body":"If so, I think that would"},{"startTime":3043.11,"endTime":3046.633,"body":"have alarming consequences."},{"startTime":3049.6,"endTime":3052.4,"body":"The issue with geopolitical"},{"startTime":3049.6,"endTime":3052.4,"body":"tension with China"},{"startTime":3052.4,"endTime":3054.523,"body":"is also a major problem."},{"startTime":3055.7,"endTime":3058.78,"body":"China was central to the"},{"startTime":3055.7,"endTime":3058.78,"body":"recovery of the world economy"},{"startTime":3058.78,"endTime":3060.703,"body":"in the global financial crisis."},{"startTime":3061.63,"endTime":3064.523,"body":"Since then geopolitical tensions risen,"},{"startTime":3066.734,"endTime":3068.63,"body":"and the fiscal stimulus in China,"},{"startTime":3068.63,"endTime":3070.29,"body":"of COVID has been less than it was"},{"startTime":3070.29,"endTime":3072.423,"body":"during the global financial crisis."},{"startTime":3073.8,"endTime":3075.737,"body":"Indeed there is a potentiality"},{"startTime":3075.737,"endTime":3079.69,"body":"for a crisis internally within China"},{"startTime":3079.69,"endTime":3083.48,"body":"because of that high level of debt,"},{"startTime":3083.48,"endTime":3085.69,"body":"high level of non-performing loans"},{"startTime":3086.54,"endTime":3088.89,"body":"with local government"},{"startTime":3086.54,"endTime":3088.89,"body":"controlled banks, pushing money"},{"startTime":3088.89,"endTime":3091.498,"body":"into the sort of process"},{"startTime":3091.498,"endTime":3096.33,"body":"of building houses and"},{"startTime":3091.498,"endTime":3096.33,"body":"infrastructure which I talked about."},{"startTime":3096.33,"endTime":3099.153,"body":"Fewer profitable infrastructure projects."},{"startTime":3100.25,"endTime":3103.01,"body":"How easy will it be for"},{"startTime":3100.25,"endTime":3103.01,"body":"China to restructure"},{"startTime":3103.01,"endTime":3105.27,"body":"towards domestic consumption?"},{"startTime":3105.27,"endTime":3107.55,"body":"That would mean a major change"},{"startTime":3107.55,"endTime":3109.88,"body":"in its internal power dynamics"},{"startTime":3109.88,"endTime":3114.47,"body":"away from powerful elites"},{"startTime":3109.88,"endTime":3114.47,"body":"dependent upon exports."},{"startTime":3114.47,"endTime":3116.96,"body":"It would be increasing"},{"startTime":3114.47,"endTime":3116.96,"body":"the power of unions,"},{"startTime":3116.96,"endTime":3120.74,"body":"the power of labor and a reform"},{"startTime":3116.96,"endTime":3120.74,"body":"of the social welfare system"},{"startTime":3120.74,"endTime":3124.01,"body":"so that people can spend"},{"startTime":3120.74,"endTime":3124.01,"body":"rather than be saved"},{"startTime":3124.01,"endTime":3125.733,"body":"for their own future welfare."},{"startTime":3126.87,"endTime":3130.15,"body":"So I think there's a serious"},{"startTime":3126.87,"endTime":3130.15,"body":"issue here wit China."},{"startTime":3130.15,"endTime":3133.423,"body":"And it's also a serious"},{"startTime":3130.15,"endTime":3133.423,"body":"issue with the Euro zone."},{"startTime":3134.55,"endTime":3137.74,"body":"The response of the Euro zone"},{"startTime":3134.55,"endTime":3137.74,"body":"to the global financial crisis"},{"startTime":3137.74,"endTime":3139.873,"body":"was slow and modest."},{"startTime":3141.25,"endTime":3143.943,"body":"Design flaws of the Euro the main."},{"startTime":3145.13,"endTime":3149.24,"body":"Now there are some signs of action"},{"startTime":3149.24,"endTime":3150.953,"body":"in response to the pandemic."},{"startTime":3151.93,"endTime":3154.14,"body":"And some commentators referred"},{"startTime":3154.14,"endTime":3156.973,"body":"to what they call a Hamiltonian moment."},{"startTime":3158.12,"endTime":3162.85,"body":"They're referring there to"},{"startTime":3158.12,"endTime":3162.85,"body":"1790 when Alexander Hamilton"},{"startTime":3162.85,"endTime":3166.98,"body":"in the United States, mutualized"},{"startTime":3162.85,"endTime":3166.98,"body":"the debt of the 13 states,"},{"startTime":3166.98,"endTime":3169.55,"body":"which went became the United States."},{"startTime":3169.55,"endTime":3171.82,"body":"But I think that is exaggerated."},{"startTime":3171.82,"endTime":3176.82,"body":"Hamilton had tax revenues from"},{"startTime":3171.82,"endTime":3176.82,"body":"the federal custom service,"},{"startTime":3177.06,"endTime":3181.0,"body":"which allowed him to"},{"startTime":3177.06,"endTime":3181.0,"body":"support the mutualized debt."},{"startTime":3181.0,"endTime":3183.49,"body":"The European union does not."},{"startTime":3183.49,"endTime":3187.24,"body":"And the so-called Frugal four"},{"startTime":3183.49,"endTime":3187.24,"body":"Austria, Denmark, Sweden,"},{"startTime":3187.24,"endTime":3191.703,"body":"and the Netherlands oppose a"},{"startTime":3187.24,"endTime":3191.703,"body":"larger European union budget."},{"startTime":3192.72,"endTime":3195.52,"body":"Now, I suppose, looking"},{"startTime":3192.72,"endTime":3195.52,"body":"ahead, the question will be,"},{"startTime":3195.52,"endTime":3198.16,"body":"does Ukraine mark the possibility"},{"startTime":3198.16,"endTime":3201.8,"body":"of a real Hamiltonian moment?"},{"startTime":3201.8,"endTime":3204.823,"body":"It's possible, but I wouldn't bank on."},{"startTime":3204.823,"endTime":3206.13,"body":"It might depend upon what happens"},{"startTime":3206.13,"endTime":3207.8,"body":"in the French presidential election"},{"startTime":3207.8,"endTime":3210.423,"body":"and whether Le Pen or Macron win."},{"startTime":3211.37,"endTime":3214.7,"body":"So beginning to become a bit gloomy here,"},{"startTime":3214.7,"endTime":3218.207,"body":"reforming the United States,"},{"startTime":3214.7,"endTime":3218.207,"body":"China and the European union,"},{"startTime":3218.207,"endTime":3220.82,"body":"the three major economies"},{"startTime":3218.207,"endTime":3220.82,"body":"and political systems"},{"startTime":3220.82,"endTime":3223.01,"body":"will each be difficult."},{"startTime":3223.01,"endTime":3225.44,"body":"And a question which then arises is,"},{"startTime":3225.44,"endTime":3228.71,"body":"are we facing the end of globalization?"},{"startTime":3228.71,"endTime":3231.563,"body":"Much has happened in"},{"startTime":3228.71,"endTime":3231.563,"body":"the early 20th century."},{"startTime":3232.56,"endTime":3234.35,"body":"The talk in the later 20th century"},{"startTime":3234.35,"endTime":3236.96,"body":"was ever closer integration"},{"startTime":3234.35,"endTime":3236.96,"body":"of supply chains,"},{"startTime":3236.96,"endTime":3240.78,"body":"just in time delivery,"},{"startTime":3236.96,"endTime":3240.78,"body":"global flows of finance."},{"startTime":3240.78,"endTime":3244.46,"body":"Now people are talking about"},{"startTime":3240.78,"endTime":3244.46,"body":"national sales sufficiency,"},{"startTime":3244.46,"endTime":3248.32,"body":"uncoupling of supply chains."},{"startTime":3248.32,"endTime":3250.683,"body":"So which way are we going to go here?"},{"startTime":3252.62,"endTime":3256.47,"body":"My view is that the case for decoupling"},{"startTime":3256.47,"endTime":3259.81,"body":"and the end of globalization"},{"startTime":3256.47,"endTime":3259.81,"body":"is exaggerated."},{"startTime":3259.81,"endTime":3261.92,"body":"We are more likely to see a different form"},{"startTime":3261.92,"endTime":3265.663,"body":"of globalization rather than a reversal."},{"startTime":3266.77,"endTime":3270.4,"body":"But that depends upon politicians"},{"startTime":3270.4,"endTime":3273.69,"body":"and international organizations"},{"startTime":3270.4,"endTime":3273.69,"body":"adopting sensible policies,"},{"startTime":3273.69,"endTime":3276.633,"body":"which is admittedly a high bar."},{"startTime":3278.41,"endTime":3280.183,"body":"My argument would be this,"},{"startTime":3281.39,"endTime":3286.36,"body":"uncoupling is not likely to"},{"startTime":3281.39,"endTime":3286.36,"body":"happen to as large extent"},{"startTime":3286.36,"endTime":3288.59,"body":"as some people believe"},{"startTime":3288.59,"endTime":3293.59,"body":"because China cannot depend"},{"startTime":3288.59,"endTime":3293.59,"body":"upon Russian markets."},{"startTime":3294.46,"endTime":3296.55,"body":"The economy of Russia is too small."},{"startTime":3296.55,"endTime":3298.98,"body":"China needs markets in the United States"},{"startTime":3298.98,"endTime":3302.38,"body":"and in the European union,"},{"startTime":3298.98,"endTime":3302.38,"body":"at least until it shifts"},{"startTime":3302.38,"endTime":3304.1,"body":"its economy towards domestic consumption,"},{"startTime":3304.1,"endTime":3305.99,"body":"which will take some time."},{"startTime":3305.99,"endTime":3308.32,"body":"So China United States economy are likely"},{"startTime":3308.32,"endTime":3311.83,"body":"to remain closely tied"},{"startTime":3308.32,"endTime":3311.83,"body":"also cause China owns"},{"startTime":3311.83,"endTime":3314.53,"body":"a lot of US treasury bonds."},{"startTime":3314.53,"endTime":3317.463,"body":"Does not say there's going"},{"startTime":3314.53,"endTime":3317.463,"body":"to be a lack of tension."},{"startTime":3319.33,"endTime":3321.53,"body":"I also think it's unlikely"},{"startTime":3319.33,"endTime":3321.53,"body":"that there will be a,"},{"startTime":3321.53,"endTime":3324.91,"body":"a very marked and sudden"},{"startTime":3321.53,"endTime":3324.91,"body":"decline of the dollar."},{"startTime":3324.91,"endTime":3327.37,"body":"Some people are saying that"},{"startTime":3324.91,"endTime":3327.37,"body":"this is going to happen"},{"startTime":3327.37,"endTime":3329.78,"body":"like Sarkozy did back at the time,"},{"startTime":3329.78,"endTime":3331.97,"body":"of global financial crisis."},{"startTime":3331.97,"endTime":3336.18,"body":"But in fact, this is not"},{"startTime":3331.97,"endTime":3336.18,"body":"likely happen anytime soon."},{"startTime":3336.18,"endTime":3340.13,"body":"In 2018, the renminbi"},{"startTime":3336.18,"endTime":3340.13,"body":"accounted for only 2.5%"},{"startTime":3340.99,"endTime":3345.78,"body":"of non-Chinese reserves compared"},{"startTime":3340.99,"endTime":3345.78,"body":"with 62% for the dollar."},{"startTime":3345.78,"endTime":3348.41,"body":"Even if Russia and China"},{"startTime":3345.78,"endTime":3348.41,"body":"do look for currency,"},{"startTime":3348.41,"endTime":3350.53,"body":"which is not linked to the United States,"},{"startTime":3350.53,"endTime":3353.91,"body":"I think this is going"},{"startTime":3350.53,"endTime":3353.91,"body":"to take a very long time"},{"startTime":3353.91,"endTime":3357.26,"body":"and the outcome is more likely"},{"startTime":3353.91,"endTime":3357.26,"body":"to be a multipolar system"},{"startTime":3357.26,"endTime":3361.863,"body":"rather than a move towards"},{"startTime":3357.26,"endTime":3361.863,"body":"an entirely new a system."},{"startTime":3364.4,"endTime":3368.23,"body":"I also think that we need to"},{"startTime":3364.4,"endTime":3368.23,"body":"have a new social contract."},{"startTime":3368.23,"endTime":3372.01,"body":"The global economic order after 1945,"},{"startTime":3372.01,"endTime":3375.17,"body":"rested upon lower inequality,"},{"startTime":3375.17,"endTime":3378.8,"body":"social contract between labor and capital."},{"startTime":3378.8,"endTime":3383.073,"body":"And I think that is something"},{"startTime":3378.8,"endTime":3383.073,"body":"that is vital to produce."},{"startTime":3384.21,"endTime":3389.21,"body":"And we also need finally to"},{"startTime":3384.21,"endTime":3389.21,"body":"reform global institutions."},{"startTime":3389.75,"endTime":3391.49,"body":"In the later 19th century,"},{"startTime":3391.49,"endTime":3393.58,"body":"multinational institutions embarked"},{"startTime":3393.58,"endTime":3398.183,"body":"on a particular normative"},{"startTime":3393.58,"endTime":3398.183,"body":"approach of global integration,"},{"startTime":3399.82,"endTime":3404.82,"body":"encouraging the shift"},{"startTime":3399.82,"endTime":3404.82,"body":"towards movement of capital"},{"startTime":3404.93,"endTime":3407.733,"body":"around the world and supply"},{"startTime":3404.93,"endTime":3407.733,"body":"chains around the world."},{"startTime":3408.71,"endTime":3411.37,"body":"I think what we now need"},{"startTime":3408.71,"endTime":3411.37,"body":"is to move away from that"},{"startTime":3411.37,"endTime":3413.55,"body":"as I've already suggested is happening,"},{"startTime":3413.55,"endTime":3416.91,"body":"but also to build up other"},{"startTime":3413.55,"endTime":3416.91,"body":"multilateral institutions."},{"startTime":3416.91,"endTime":3421.56,"body":"The World Health Organization"},{"startTime":3416.91,"endTime":3421.56,"body":"is grossly underfunded"},{"startTime":3422.56,"endTime":3425.34,"body":"and the Food and"},{"startTime":3422.56,"endTime":3425.34,"body":"Agricultural Organization,"},{"startTime":3425.34,"endTime":3428.62,"body":"which is set up at the end"},{"startTime":3425.34,"endTime":3428.62,"body":"of the second world war"},{"startTime":3428.62,"endTime":3432.92,"body":"should also be given more"},{"startTime":3428.62,"endTime":3432.92,"body":"power to create food security,"},{"startTime":3432.92,"endTime":3437.46,"body":"which is obviously going to be"},{"startTime":3432.92,"endTime":3437.46,"body":"a major issue in the future."},{"startTime":3437.46,"endTime":3439.74,"body":"And then the World Trade Organization"},{"startTime":3439.74,"endTime":3442.85,"body":"could be taking more"},{"startTime":3439.74,"endTime":3442.85,"body":"action upon climate change"},{"startTime":3442.85,"endTime":3446.43,"body":"through border taxes, upon"},{"startTime":3442.85,"endTime":3446.43,"body":"carbon trading, for example."},{"startTime":3446.43,"endTime":3449.16,"body":"And the IMF to increase its monitoring"},{"startTime":3449.16,"endTime":3451.673,"body":"across border financial flows."},{"startTime":3452.82,"endTime":3457.82,"body":"So my conclusion is that"},{"startTime":3452.82,"endTime":3457.82,"body":"Keynes was perplexed in 1933"},{"startTime":3457.94,"endTime":3460.83,"body":"and there's no shame in"},{"startTime":3457.94,"endTime":3460.83,"body":"admitting that I'm perplexed."},{"startTime":3460.83,"endTime":3463.55,"body":"We're all perplexed,"},{"startTime":3460.83,"endTime":3463.55,"body":"what is going to happen?"},{"startTime":3463.55,"endTime":3466.2,"body":"We also know what was"},{"startTime":3463.55,"endTime":3466.2,"body":"to follow a few years"},{"startTime":3466.2,"endTime":3469.88,"body":"after 1933, a world war."},{"startTime":3469.88,"endTime":3472.32,"body":"Well, let us certainly"},{"startTime":3469.88,"endTime":3472.32,"body":"hope that that is not going"},{"startTime":3472.32,"endTime":3474.03,"body":"to be the future,"},{"startTime":3474.03,"endTime":3477.113,"body":"but we are in a period"},{"startTime":3474.03,"endTime":3477.113,"body":"of radical uncertainty."},{"startTime":3477.98,"endTime":3481.5,"body":"My wish is that we can turn"},{"startTime":3477.98,"endTime":3481.5,"body":"back from neoliberalism"},{"startTime":3481.5,"endTime":3484.25,"body":"that led to the global financial crisis."},{"startTime":3484.25,"endTime":3487.71,"body":"The pandemic might be an"},{"startTime":3484.25,"endTime":3487.71,"body":"opportunity for that change."},{"startTime":3487.71,"endTime":3491.77,"body":"I would like to see a fairer,"},{"startTime":3487.71,"endTime":3491.77,"body":"more inclusive capitalism"},{"startTime":3491.77,"endTime":3494.163,"body":"a view shared by many major capitalism."},{"startTime":3495.09,"endTime":3497.973,"body":"Capitalism survives because it's reformed."},{"startTime":3499.1,"endTime":3502.6,"body":"And rather than decoupling"},{"startTime":3499.1,"endTime":3502.6,"body":"and de-globalization,"},{"startTime":3502.6,"endTime":3504.4,"body":"I think the outcome is likely to be,"},{"startTime":3504.4,"endTime":3506.76,"body":"or should be a rebalancing"},{"startTime":3506.76,"endTime":3509.973,"body":"of national and international interests,"},{"startTime":3511.14,"endTime":3513.4,"body":"which requires a change"},{"startTime":3511.14,"endTime":3513.4,"body":"within the European union,"},{"startTime":3513.4,"endTime":3515.463,"body":"China and the United States."},{"startTime":3516.487,"endTime":3518.69,"body":"And I think we need"},{"startTime":3516.487,"endTime":3518.69,"body":"international agreements"},{"startTime":3518.69,"endTime":3521.6,"body":"to deal with specific pragmatic issues"},{"startTime":3521.6,"endTime":3524.03,"body":"on health or climate rather than"},{"startTime":3524.03,"endTime":3527.753,"body":"to pursue an agenda of"},{"startTime":3524.03,"endTime":3527.753,"body":"markets liberalization."},{"startTime":3528.77,"endTime":3532.03,"body":"Our hope must be that we"},{"startTime":3528.77,"endTime":3532.03,"body":"can achieve all of this"},{"startTime":3532.03,"endTime":3536.51,"body":"without as the Bretton"},{"startTime":3532.03,"endTime":3536.51,"body":"Woods requiring a world war."},{"startTime":3536.51,"endTime":3537.343,"body":"Thank you."}]}