{"version":"1.0.0","segments":[{"startTime":0.18,"endTime":1.35,"body":"- Well thank you all very much for coming,"},{"startTime":1.35,"endTime":4.23,"body":"and in particular thanks to"},{"startTime":1.35,"endTime":4.23,"body":"the Frank Jackson Foundation"},{"startTime":4.23,"endTime":7.383,"body":"for making these lectures"},{"startTime":4.23,"endTime":7.383,"body":"possible, of course."},{"startTime":9.33,"endTime":10.163,"body":"I'd like to talk to you"},{"startTime":10.163,"endTime":12.69,"body":"about the question we have behind us,"},{"startTime":12.69,"endTime":14.55,"body":"but I would like to start"},{"startTime":14.55,"endTime":19.053,"body":"by just thinking about how"},{"startTime":14.55,"endTime":19.053,"body":"we make advances in science,"},{"startTime":19.95,"endTime":21.393,"body":"and questions in general."},{"startTime":23.07,"endTime":25.236,"body":"In science, sometimes in science,"},{"startTime":25.236,"endTime":29.82,"body":"you advance by stumbling onto something"},{"startTime":29.82,"endTime":31.95,"body":"that suggests a new question,"},{"startTime":31.95,"endTime":36.69,"body":"like Penzias and Wilson"},{"startTime":31.95,"endTime":36.69,"body":"scrubbing the bird dung"},{"startTime":36.69,"endTime":38.31,"body":"out of their radio telescope"},{"startTime":38.31,"endTime":41.4,"body":"and discovering the"},{"startTime":38.31,"endTime":41.4,"body":"origin of the Universe,"},{"startTime":41.4,"endTime":43.89,"body":"sometimes, you make advances"},{"startTime":43.89,"endTime":48.72,"body":"by answering a question that's"},{"startTime":43.89,"endTime":48.72,"body":"been posed for a long time,"},{"startTime":48.72,"endTime":49.83,"body":"like, for example,"},{"startTime":49.83,"endTime":52.71,"body":"the team at CERN establishing"},{"startTime":49.83,"endTime":52.71,"body":"the existence and mass"},{"startTime":52.71,"endTime":53.913,"body":"of the Higgs boson,"},{"startTime":54.96,"endTime":56.31,"body":"and sometimes, you make progress"},{"startTime":56.31,"endTime":58.353,"body":"by asking a different question,"},{"startTime":59.85,"endTime":62.88,"body":"and this was the case with net zero."},{"startTime":62.88,"endTime":67.113,"body":"A small group of us, in the late 2000s,"},{"startTime":67.95,"endTime":72.15,"body":"realized we were in a bit of"},{"startTime":67.95,"endTime":72.15,"body":"an intellectual cul-de-sac"},{"startTime":72.15,"endTime":76.56,"body":"with the question we were"},{"startTime":72.15,"endTime":76.56,"body":"posing ourselves at that time,"},{"startTime":76.56,"endTime":79.32,"body":"and started to ask a different question,"},{"startTime":79.32,"endTime":84.32,"body":"still fundamentally oriented"},{"startTime":79.32,"endTime":84.32,"body":"on how we limit global warming,"},{"startTime":85.41,"endTime":87.54,"body":"and that's the origin of the finding"},{"startTime":87.54,"endTime":90.51,"body":"that we need net-zero"},{"startTime":87.54,"endTime":90.51,"body":"carbon dioxide emissions"},{"startTime":90.51,"endTime":93.393,"body":"to halt the rise in global"},{"startTime":90.51,"endTime":93.393,"body":"average temperature."},{"startTime":95.34,"endTime":99.12,"body":"Explaining why we had to"},{"startTime":95.34,"endTime":99.12,"body":"ask a different question"},{"startTime":99.12,"endTime":100.71,"body":"is something I'm going to have to explain"},{"startTime":100.71,"endTime":102.39,"body":"over the next three lectures,"},{"startTime":102.39,"endTime":105.03,"body":"so of course you're all"},{"startTime":102.39,"endTime":105.03,"body":"coming to all of them, I hope."},{"startTime":105.03,"endTime":106.26,"body":"And by the way,"},{"startTime":106.26,"endTime":108.78,"body":"today, the visual aids are rather static,"},{"startTime":108.78,"endTime":110.94,"body":"but they get more dynamic as we go along,"},{"startTime":110.94,"endTime":114.63,"body":"and we actually construct a climate model,"},{"startTime":114.63,"endTime":116.91,"body":"a pre-computer climate model,"},{"startTime":116.91,"endTime":119.7,"body":"based on connected pipes,"},{"startTime":116.91,"endTime":119.7,"body":"and fluids, and things,"},{"startTime":119.7,"endTime":121.26,"body":"which of course introduces the possibility"},{"startTime":121.26,"endTime":122.16,"body":"of it all going wrong,"},{"startTime":122.16,"endTime":123.78,"body":"which makes it much more entertaining,"},{"startTime":123.78,"endTime":126.977,"body":"so I do hope you will be coming"},{"startTime":123.78,"endTime":126.977,"body":"to those following lectures,"},{"startTime":126.977,"endTime":129.99,"body":"'cause in them, I will explain to you"},{"startTime":129.99,"endTime":133.53,"body":"why we had to change the"},{"startTime":129.99,"endTime":133.53,"body":"question we're asking."},{"startTime":133.53,"endTime":134.64,"body":"But for this lecture,"},{"startTime":134.64,"endTime":135.6,"body":"I'm going to do quite a lot"},{"startTime":135.6,"endTime":138.63,"body":"of just asking you to take my"},{"startTime":135.6,"endTime":138.63,"body":"word for it on the science,"},{"startTime":138.63,"endTime":140.43,"body":"although I always feel strongly"},{"startTime":140.43,"endTime":143.85,"body":"that you should never take"},{"startTime":140.43,"endTime":143.85,"body":"a scientist's word for it,"},{"startTime":143.85,"endTime":144.99,"body":"part of our job as scientists"},{"startTime":144.99,"endTime":146.85,"body":"is always explaining everything."},{"startTime":146.85,"endTime":151.8,"body":"But we realized, as I"},{"startTime":146.85,"endTime":151.8,"body":"say, in the late 2000s,"},{"startTime":151.8,"endTime":156.27,"body":"that we needed to change the nature"},{"startTime":156.27,"endTime":158.94,"body":"of the question we were"},{"startTime":156.27,"endTime":158.94,"body":"asking scientifically"},{"startTime":158.94,"endTime":160.77,"body":"about how to stop global warming."},{"startTime":160.77,"endTime":161.603,"body":"Up until then,"},{"startTime":161.603,"endTime":163.53,"body":"just so I'm not leaving you hanging,"},{"startTime":163.53,"endTime":164.7,"body":"up until then,"},{"startTime":164.7,"endTime":165.87,"body":"it had been all about"},{"startTime":165.87,"endTime":169.23,"body":"what level of greenhouse"},{"startTime":165.87,"endTime":169.23,"body":"gas concentrations"},{"startTime":169.23,"endTime":170.063,"body":"in the atmosphere"},{"startTime":170.063,"endTime":171.45,"body":"we should be aiming for."},{"startTime":171.45,"endTime":172.56,"body":"Some of you may remember,"},{"startTime":172.56,"endTime":175.11,"body":"350.org was actually a whole NGO"},{"startTime":175.11,"endTime":177.69,"body":"devoted to aiming for"},{"startTime":175.11,"endTime":177.69,"body":"350 parts per million"},{"startTime":177.69,"endTime":178.65,"body":"in the atmosphere,"},{"startTime":178.65,"endTime":179.483,"body":"and the big debate was,"},{"startTime":179.483,"endTime":183.15,"body":"should we be going for 350,"},{"startTime":179.483,"endTime":183.15,"body":"450, or 550 parts per million."},{"startTime":183.15,"endTime":184.5,"body":"If you remember, back in the 2000s,"},{"startTime":184.5,"endTime":185.79,"body":"that was the argument,"},{"startTime":185.79,"endTime":188.583,"body":"and we found we couldn't"},{"startTime":185.79,"endTime":188.583,"body":"really resolve it,"},{"startTime":189.51,"endTime":192.18,"body":"and, for reasons I'll"},{"startTime":189.51,"endTime":192.18,"body":"explain in future lectures,"},{"startTime":192.18,"endTime":194.07,"body":"we probably never were"},{"startTime":192.18,"endTime":194.07,"body":"going to be able to,"},{"startTime":194.07,"endTime":196.71,"body":"so instead, we had to ask"},{"startTime":194.07,"endTime":196.71,"body":"ourselves a different question,"},{"startTime":196.71,"endTime":198.75,"body":"which is, how do we limit global warming"},{"startTime":198.75,"endTime":201.06,"body":"by just stopping putting carbon dioxide"},{"startTime":201.06,"endTime":203.043,"body":"into the atmosphere altogether."},{"startTime":204.15,"endTime":206.67,"body":"So we, the scientific community,"},{"startTime":206.67,"endTime":209.85,"body":"did change the question we were asking,"},{"startTime":209.85,"endTime":212.4,"body":"in recognition that we"},{"startTime":209.85,"endTime":212.4,"body":"weren't getting very far"},{"startTime":212.4,"endTime":214.413,"body":"with asking the old question."},{"startTime":215.61,"endTime":218.67,"body":"Unfortunately, the policy community"},{"startTime":218.67,"endTime":221.4,"body":"still seems to be asking the questions"},{"startTime":221.4,"endTime":223.863,"body":"that it was asking before 2009,"},{"startTime":224.79,"endTime":227.28,"body":"and that, I will argue,"},{"startTime":227.28,"endTime":232.28,"body":"is why we're making so little"},{"startTime":227.28,"endTime":232.28,"body":"progress on climate change,"},{"startTime":232.32,"endTime":236.01,"body":"that until we start"},{"startTime":232.32,"endTime":236.01,"body":"asking different questions"},{"startTime":236.01,"endTime":238.44,"body":"about how we stop global warming,"},{"startTime":238.44,"endTime":240.99,"body":"we're not going to get there."},{"startTime":240.99,"endTime":242.55,"body":"But before I get into that,"},{"startTime":242.55,"endTime":244.863,"body":"I'd like to make a"},{"startTime":242.55,"endTime":244.863,"body":"couple of introductions."},{"startTime":245.73,"endTime":247.44,"body":"I'd like to introduce you to Aart,"},{"startTime":249.3,"endTime":250.14,"body":"not his real name,"},{"startTime":250.14,"endTime":252.39,"body":"I can't remember his real"},{"startTime":250.14,"endTime":252.39,"body":"name to be honest with you,"},{"startTime":252.39,"endTime":254.85,"body":"but Aart is somebody I met."},{"startTime":254.85,"endTime":258.81,"body":"Back in 2007, late 2007,"},{"startTime":258.81,"endTime":260.88,"body":"when I was giving,"},{"startTime":260.88,"endTime":264.31,"body":"the first time I gave a"},{"startTime":260.88,"endTime":264.31,"body":"lecture outside of academia"},{"startTime":265.35,"endTime":268.08,"body":"on the topic of net zero,"},{"startTime":268.08,"endTime":269.85,"body":"and the lecture,"},{"startTime":269.85,"endTime":273.45,"body":"before somebody goes and"},{"startTime":269.85,"endTime":273.45,"body":"researches it and does an expose,"},{"startTime":273.45,"endTime":274.77,"body":"my expenses were covered"},{"startTime":274.77,"endTime":276.57,"body":"by a major international oil company"},{"startTime":276.57,"endTime":279.18,"body":"and I was talking to the"},{"startTime":276.57,"endTime":279.18,"body":"Libyan National Oil Corporation"},{"startTime":279.18,"endTime":280.658,"body":"in Tripoli,"},{"startTime":280.658,"endTime":281.97,"body":"and I was staying in a guesthouse"},{"startTime":281.97,"endTime":283.833,"body":"belonging to the oil company."},{"startTime":284.82,"endTime":286.62,"body":"And while I was there,"},{"startTime":286.62,"endTime":288.36,"body":"the guesthouse was entirely empty,"},{"startTime":288.36,"endTime":289.38,"body":"so I thought,"},{"startTime":289.38,"endTime":290.73,"body":"but when I came down for breakfast,"},{"startTime":290.73,"endTime":294.993,"body":"I met a friendly Dutch engineer,"},{"startTime":295.83,"endTime":296.85,"body":"who I'm calling Aart"},{"startTime":296.85,"endTime":300.57,"body":"for the sake of inventing"},{"startTime":296.85,"endTime":300.57,"body":"a name, I'm afraid,"},{"startTime":300.57,"endTime":303.0,"body":"and we got chatting,"},{"startTime":303.0,"endTime":305.4,"body":"and I asked him what he was"},{"startTime":303.0,"endTime":305.4,"body":"up to and why he was there,"},{"startTime":305.4,"endTime":307.41,"body":"and he explained to me very quickly,"},{"startTime":307.41,"endTime":309.54,"body":"he obviously knew the"},{"startTime":307.41,"endTime":309.54,"body":"sensitivity, so he said,"},{"startTime":309.54,"endTime":311.94,"body":"well normally, we use Libyan engineers,"},{"startTime":311.94,"endTime":314.25,"body":"but where he was heading for,"},{"startTime":314.25,"endTime":318.54,"body":"it was a drilling site somewhere in Libya"},{"startTime":318.54,"endTime":321.63,"body":"where the well was so deep,"},{"startTime":321.63,"endTime":324.45,"body":"and the conditions on"},{"startTime":321.63,"endTime":324.45,"body":"the surface were so hot"},{"startTime":324.45,"endTime":325.71,"body":"that the drill fluid,"},{"startTime":325.71,"endTime":327.66,"body":"the fluid they use to lubricate the drill"},{"startTime":327.66,"endTime":328.83,"body":"was above boiling point"},{"startTime":328.83,"endTime":331.32,"body":"when it came back out of the well,"},{"startTime":331.32,"endTime":333.72,"body":"so the whole situation was so dangerous,"},{"startTime":333.72,"endTime":334.89,"body":"'cause it would literally explode"},{"startTime":334.89,"endTime":337.44,"body":"if you depressurized it"},{"startTime":334.89,"endTime":337.44,"body":"fast enough, or something,"},{"startTime":337.44,"endTime":338.34,"body":"that they only allowed"},{"startTime":338.34,"endTime":341.343,"body":"their specialized international"},{"startTime":338.34,"endTime":341.343,"body":"engineers to do it,"},{"startTime":342.27,"endTime":345.06,"body":"the company took health"},{"startTime":342.27,"endTime":345.06,"body":"and safety very seriously."},{"startTime":345.06,"endTime":346.02,"body":"And then he asked,"},{"startTime":346.02,"endTime":347.34,"body":"so, what do you do?"},{"startTime":347.34,"endTime":348.173,"body":"So I said,"},{"startTime":348.173,"endTime":350.13,"body":"well, I'm a climate scientist"},{"startTime":350.13,"endTime":353.312,"body":"and I'm here to give a"},{"startTime":350.13,"endTime":353.312,"body":"lecture on global warming."},{"startTime":353.312,"endTime":355.41,"body":"And I fully expected him,"},{"startTime":355.41,"endTime":357.03,"body":"I didn't know what to expect."},{"startTime":357.03,"endTime":357.863,"body":"Immediately, he said,"},{"startTime":357.863,"endTime":359.85,"body":"oh yeah, that's a very important issue,"},{"startTime":359.85,"endTime":361.59,"body":"and he started to tell me how,"},{"startTime":361.59,"endTime":363.09,"body":"back home in the Netherlands,"},{"startTime":363.09,"endTime":363.923,"body":"he and his partner"},{"startTime":363.923,"endTime":366.03,"body":"had just fitted solar water heater panels,"},{"startTime":366.03,"endTime":369.48,"body":"this was the days before"},{"startTime":366.03,"endTime":369.48,"body":"PV was everywhere,"},{"startTime":369.48,"endTime":371.67,"body":"and he clubbed together with his neighbors"},{"startTime":371.67,"endTime":373.29,"body":"to fit them on all their houses,"},{"startTime":373.29,"endTime":374.72,"body":"and he'd given up using a car last year,"},{"startTime":374.72,"endTime":378.42,"body":"he was a very enthusiastic"},{"startTime":374.72,"endTime":378.42,"body":"environmentalist,"},{"startTime":378.42,"endTime":381.12,"body":"and then he headed off into the desert"},{"startTime":381.12,"endTime":382.86,"body":"and I never met him again."},{"startTime":382.86,"endTime":385.2,"body":"But I often think about that conversation,"},{"startTime":385.2,"endTime":389.73,"body":"because it's that separation"},{"startTime":389.73,"endTime":392.07,"body":"of the two halves of Aart's life"},{"startTime":392.07,"endTime":395.79,"body":"that I think are a big"},{"startTime":392.07,"endTime":395.79,"body":"part of the problem we face"},{"startTime":395.79,"endTime":397.5,"body":"in dealing with climate change,"},{"startTime":397.5,"endTime":398.6,"body":"we'll come back to it."},{"startTime":399.951,"endTime":402.45,"body":"And then, 12 years later,"},{"startTime":402.45,"endTime":405.39,"body":"after we'd published the net zero papers,"},{"startTime":405.39,"endTime":407.85,"body":"we'd had the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report,"},{"startTime":407.85,"endTime":409.59,"body":"we had the Paris Agreement,"},{"startTime":409.59,"endTime":412.62,"body":"we had the IPCC's 1.5 Degrees Report,"},{"startTime":412.62,"endTime":414.27,"body":"which established we"},{"startTime":412.62,"endTime":414.27,"body":"needed to get to net zero"},{"startTime":414.27,"endTime":416.22,"body":"by 2050, or so,"},{"startTime":416.22,"endTime":418.503,"body":"if we wanted to limit"},{"startTime":416.22,"endTime":418.503,"body":"warming to 1.5 degrees,"},{"startTime":419.52,"endTime":420.87,"body":"I had another meeting,"},{"startTime":420.87,"endTime":421.703,"body":"this time with Zoe."},{"startTime":421.703,"endTime":423.93,"body":"Again, I can't remember her actual name,"},{"startTime":423.93,"endTime":425.162,"body":"I'm not very good at names,"},{"startTime":425.162,"endTime":428.283,"body":"but Aart and Zoe, I made them up."},{"startTime":429.63,"endTime":432.48,"body":"This was during the"},{"startTime":429.63,"endTime":432.48,"body":"school strikes of 2019,"},{"startTime":432.48,"endTime":434.677,"body":"and you can see I was there with my,"},{"startTime":434.677,"endTime":437.49,"body":"\"I'm a climate scientist, ask"},{"startTime":434.677,"endTime":437.49,"body":"me a question,\" T-shirt on,"},{"startTime":437.49,"endTime":438.323,"body":"and I was talking to Zoe,"},{"startTime":438.323,"endTime":440.94,"body":"this is just outside Parliament,"},{"startTime":440.94,"endTime":444.96,"body":"and she was very, very"},{"startTime":440.94,"endTime":444.96,"body":"anxious about climate change,"},{"startTime":444.96,"endTime":445.95,"body":"although she looks very cheerful here,"},{"startTime":445.95,"endTime":446.97,"body":"she's smiling for the camera,"},{"startTime":446.97,"endTime":448.98,"body":"but she had a lot of questions."},{"startTime":448.98,"endTime":451.8,"body":"She'd basically been told"},{"startTime":448.98,"endTime":451.8,"body":"for 19 years of her life,"},{"startTime":451.8,"endTime":454.71,"body":"or at least the part of"},{"startTime":451.8,"endTime":454.71,"body":"the 19 years she could,"},{"startTime":454.71,"endTime":456.3,"body":"she was 19,"},{"startTime":456.3,"endTime":458.25,"body":"that it was her fault,"},{"startTime":458.25,"endTime":459.69,"body":"and she was worrying."},{"startTime":459.69,"endTime":461.67,"body":"All the questions she"},{"startTime":459.69,"endTime":461.67,"body":"had for me were about,"},{"startTime":461.67,"endTime":463.65,"body":"she was already vegetarian,"},{"startTime":461.67,"endTime":463.65,"body":"and should she go vegan,"},{"startTime":463.65,"endTime":465.48,"body":"she was going to take a gap year,"},{"startTime":465.48,"endTime":466.95,"body":"should she travel,"},{"startTime":466.95,"endTime":468.57,"body":"and if so, how should she travel,"},{"startTime":468.57,"endTime":471.63,"body":"and all of it was about her fault."},{"startTime":471.63,"endTime":473.358,"body":"And when I said to her,"},{"startTime":473.358,"endTime":476.01,"body":"she didn't like what"},{"startTime":473.358,"endTime":476.01,"body":"the government was doing"},{"startTime":476.01,"endTime":478.68,"body":"but she wasn't quite clear"},{"startTime":476.01,"endTime":478.68,"body":"what she wanted them to do,"},{"startTime":478.68,"endTime":481.533,"body":"and when I asked her about"},{"startTime":478.68,"endTime":481.533,"body":"fossil fuel companies,"},{"startTime":483.36,"endTime":485.61,"body":"what their responsibilities were,"},{"startTime":485.61,"endTime":486.443,"body":"she just said,"},{"startTime":486.443,"endTime":487.49,"body":"well they're the problem,"},{"startTime":488.52,"endTime":491.19,"body":"and hadn't really thought"},{"startTime":491.19,"endTime":493.083,"body":"about their position in this at all."},{"startTime":495.57,"endTime":496.74,"body":"This lecture,"},{"startTime":496.74,"endTime":498.87,"body":"and this whole series of lectures,"},{"startTime":498.87,"endTime":501.393,"body":"is about connecting Aart and Zoe."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":507.21,"endTime":509.373,"body":"when I gave that lecture in Tripoli,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":510.6,"endTime":513.27,"body":"this was the model of climate policy"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":513.27,"endTime":515.64,"body":"that people had in their heads."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":515.64,"endTime":517.77,"body":"And this wasn't very long ago,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":517.77,"endTime":520.013,"body":"this is 15 years ago, or so,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":520.013,"endTime":524.73,"body":"this is the way we thought the"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":520.013,"endTime":524.73,"body":"problem would be addressed,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":524.73,"endTime":526.053,"body":"or should be addressed."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":528.48,"endTime":529.313,"body":"The idea was,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":530.76,"endTime":533.433,"body":"contraction and convergence"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":530.76,"endTime":533.433,"body":"was the buzz phrase,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":534.33,"endTime":536.91,"body":"and the idea was that some"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":534.33,"endTime":536.91,"body":"countries in the world,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":536.91,"endTime":538.11,"body":"some people in the world"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":541.02,"endTime":543.54,"body":"generated much more carbon"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":541.02,"endTime":543.54,"body":"dioxide per head of population"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":543.54,"endTime":544.56,"body":"than others,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":544.56,"endTime":546.51,"body":"so those in rich countries"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":546.51,"endTime":549.21,"body":"would reduce their emissions per head,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":549.21,"endTime":551.7,"body":"those in poor countries"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":549.21,"endTime":551.7,"body":"would increase theirs,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":551.7,"endTime":554.25,"body":"they'd meet in the middle"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":551.7,"endTime":554.25,"body":"at some point in the future,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":554.25,"endTime":558.6,"body":"and we'd live happily ever"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":554.25,"endTime":558.6,"body":"after in a sustainable future,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":558.6,"endTime":560.19,"body":"and that's the scenario here,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":560.19,"endTime":561.09,"body":"which you can see."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":561.946,"endTime":564.75,"body":"This was a quote from Manmohan Singh,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":564.75,"endTime":567.99,"body":"the Indian prime minister, in 2008,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":567.99,"endTime":572.4,"body":"that this was the model of"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":567.99,"endTime":572.4,"body":"climate policy that people had,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":572.4,"endTime":574.71,"body":"even as late as 2008."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":574.71,"endTime":575.58,"body":"And what's interesting"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":575.58,"endTime":579.33,"body":"is that this was a very"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":575.58,"endTime":579.33,"body":"politically comfortable model,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":579.33,"endTime":581.28,"body":"because it meant that poor countries"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":581.28,"endTime":583.17,"body":"could increase their emissions,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":583.17,"endTime":584.19,"body":"yes, rich countries,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":584.19,"endTime":586.35,"body":"who had the higher"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":584.19,"endTime":586.35,"body":"historical responsibility,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":586.35,"endTime":588.54,"body":"would have to reduce theirs,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":588.54,"endTime":592.35,"body":"but there was a future"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":588.54,"endTime":592.35,"body":"for everybody in that,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":592.35,"endTime":595.32,"body":"and there was a future for"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":592.35,"endTime":595.32,"body":"everybody using fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":595.32,"endTime":596.493,"body":"in that scenario."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":598.2,"endTime":601.017,"body":"The problem with it is that,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":601.017,"endTime":606.017,"body":"and you can see the picture"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":601.017,"endTime":606.017,"body":"is that we end up in 2100"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":606.09,"endTime":611.09,"body":"with emissions roughly half"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":606.09,"endTime":611.09,"body":"what they were in 1990,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":611.76,"endTime":613.863,"body":"was the scenario they had."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":614.82,"endTime":615.84,"body":"The problem, of course,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":615.84,"endTime":618.57,"body":"which came out in 2009,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":618.57,"endTime":622.29,"body":"in a whole series of"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":618.57,"endTime":622.29,"body":"papers published that year,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":622.29,"endTime":624.54,"body":"was that, actually,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":624.54,"endTime":628.17,"body":"there is no longterm sustainable rate"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":628.17,"endTime":629.913,"body":"of emission of carbon dioxide,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":631.35,"endTime":634.38,"body":"that the total warming you get,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":634.38,"endTime":636.99,"body":"the temperature you end up at"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":636.99,"endTime":640.47,"body":"is determined by the total"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":636.99,"endTime":640.47,"body":"amount of carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":640.47,"endTime":642.39,"body":"you release into the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":642.39,"endTime":644.733,"body":"and therefore if you"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":642.39,"endTime":644.733,"body":"want to stop the warming,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":645.63,"endTime":650.52,"body":"you have to reduce carbon"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":645.63,"endTime":650.52,"body":"dioxide emissions to net zero."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":650.52,"endTime":653.7,"body":"Interestingly, looking back"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":650.52,"endTime":653.7,"body":"at the original papers,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":653.7,"endTime":655.62,"body":"we didn't actually use"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":653.7,"endTime":655.62,"body":"the phrase net zero,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":655.62,"endTime":660.62,"body":"it didn't occur to us as"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":655.62,"endTime":660.62,"body":"physicists to say net zero"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":660.63,"endTime":662.88,"body":"because, for a physicist,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":662.88,"endTime":664.71,"body":"the word net is redundant,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":664.71,"endTime":665.763,"body":"it's just zero,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":666.99,"endTime":669.09,"body":"1 plus -1 is 0,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":669.09,"endTime":670.89,"body":"you don't need to say it's net zero,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":671.82,"endTime":674.01,"body":"so net zero came along a bit later."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":674.01,"endTime":676.71,"body":"But let me explain and"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":674.01,"endTime":676.71,"body":"illustrate this point"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":676.71,"endTime":677.58,"body":"with an illustration."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":677.58,"endTime":678.87,"body":"We don't, I think,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":678.87,"endTime":680.52,"body":"see enough fossil fuel,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":680.52,"endTime":681.87,"body":"so here's some fossil fuel."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":682.8,"endTime":684.51,"body":"Some of you may recognize this stuff,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":684.51,"endTime":686.43,"body":"but a lot of people haven't even seen it."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":686.43,"endTime":687.66,"body":"I bet the younger people in the audience"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":687.66,"endTime":689.31,"body":"probably haven't seen,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":689.31,"endTime":691.35,"body":"this is anthracite coal,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":691.35,"endTime":694.32,"body":"and each one of these little lumps of coal"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":694.32,"endTime":698.643,"body":"represents half a trillion"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":694.32,"endTime":698.643,"body":"tons of fossil carbon."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":700.23,"endTime":703.23,"body":"At the time we published"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":700.23,"endTime":703.23,"body":"the net zero papers"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":703.23,"endTime":704.97,"body":"in the late 2000s,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":704.97,"endTime":706.8,"body":"sorry, I'm supposed to be"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":704.97,"endTime":706.8,"body":"this side of the table,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":706.8,"endTime":707.82,"body":"I beg your pardon,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":707.82,"endTime":709.233,"body":"apologies to those online."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":711.54,"endTime":714.24,"body":"At the time we published"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":711.54,"endTime":714.24,"body":"the net zero papers"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":714.24,"endTime":716.31,"body":"in the second half of the 2000s,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":716.31,"endTime":718.29,"body":"we'd just, collectively,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":718.29,"endTime":722.46,"body":"burned through half a"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":718.29,"endTime":722.46,"body":"trillion tons of carbon,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":722.46,"endTime":725.04,"body":"one of these little lumps of coal."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":725.04,"endTime":727.65,"body":"And what we showed in those papers"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":727.65,"endTime":730.74,"body":"was that each of these lumps, if burned,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":730.74,"endTime":732.99,"body":"and all the carbon dioxide it generates"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":732.99,"endTime":734.85,"body":"released into the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":734.85,"endTime":737.793,"body":"causes one degree of global warming."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":738.81,"endTime":741.69,"body":"So we'd just burned through"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":738.81,"endTime":741.69,"body":"the first half-trillion tons,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":741.69,"endTime":743.373,"body":"that took us 250 years."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":745.29,"endTime":747.273,"body":"15 years later,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":748.32,"endTime":752.913,"body":"we are 1/3 of the way through"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":748.32,"endTime":752.913,"body":"the second half-trillion tons,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":755.16,"endTime":756.633,"body":"and if we burn it all,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":757.5,"endTime":758.553,"body":"and release all that carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":758.553,"endTime":760.83,"body":"into the atmosphere, crucially,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":760.83,"endTime":762.48,"body":"that will take us to two degrees."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":763.53,"endTime":766.92,"body":"Meanwhile, over that 15-year period,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":766.92,"endTime":768.48,"body":"we've decided we don't"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":766.92,"endTime":768.48,"body":"want to go to two degrees,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":768.48,"endTime":770.46,"body":"we want to limit the"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":768.48,"endTime":770.46,"body":"warming to 1.5 degrees,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":770.46,"endTime":772.11,"body":"so we've only got half."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":772.11,"endTime":773.56,"body":"If you think, we've used 1/3,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":775.17,"endTime":776.43,"body":"there's not much left,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":776.43,"endTime":780.603,"body":"and we're closing it off"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":776.43,"endTime":780.603,"body":"fairly rapidly at the moment."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":781.95,"endTime":786.95,"body":"So that realization, for me,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":786.96,"endTime":791.16,"body":"completely changed my view"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":786.96,"endTime":791.16,"body":"of the climate challenge"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":791.16,"endTime":793.06,"body":"because it became clear to me"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":793.95,"endTime":798.95,"body":"that we were going to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":793.95,"endTime":798.95,"body":"generate more carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":799.86,"endTime":802.17,"body":"by burning fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":802.17,"endTime":805.203,"body":"than we could afford to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":802.17,"endTime":805.203,"body":"dump in the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":806.97,"endTime":809.22,"body":"that seemed to me to be obvious."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":809.22,"endTime":812.463,"body":"Interestingly, that remains"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":809.22,"endTime":812.463,"body":"a controversial thing to say."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":817.29,"endTime":819.15,"body":"Let me say, rather than"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":817.29,"endTime":819.15,"body":"saying it with certainty,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":819.15,"endTime":820.08,"body":"I would simply say"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":820.08,"endTime":822.3,"body":"there's a very strong chance"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":822.3,"endTime":824.7,"body":"we will generate more carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":824.7,"endTime":825.78,"body":"by burning fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":825.78,"endTime":828.63,"body":"than we can afford to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":825.78,"endTime":828.63,"body":"dump in the atmosphere."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":828.63,"endTime":830.553,"body":"And as soon as you realize that,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":831.63,"endTime":834.6,"body":"it fundamentally changes the nature"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":834.6,"endTime":838.98,"body":"of the climate policy"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":834.6,"endTime":838.98,"body":"question we need to address,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":838.98,"endTime":841.08,"body":"because from being a challenge"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":841.08,"endTime":844.203,"body":"of how do we burn this second lump slower,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":845.73,"endTime":848.193,"body":"it becomes a waste disposal problem,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":849.09,"endTime":851.22,"body":"the question becomes"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":851.22,"endTime":854.13,"body":"how do we get rid of"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":851.22,"endTime":854.13,"body":"that extra carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":854.13,"endTime":856.11,"body":"that we can't afford to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":854.13,"endTime":856.11,"body":"dump in the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":856.11,"endTime":857.76,"body":"that we're going to generate,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":857.76,"endTime":859.51,"body":"but we can't put in the atmosphere?"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":861.12,"endTime":865.41,"body":"And that's the framing of climate policy"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":865.41,"endTime":868.89,"body":"that I've been struggling with ever since,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":868.89,"endTime":871.29,"body":"struggling to get across to people,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":871.29,"endTime":876.29,"body":"that we have to focus on"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":871.29,"endTime":876.29,"body":"this aspect of the problem"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":877.2,"endTime":880.65,"body":"that is dealing with this CO2 waste"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":880.65,"endTime":884.13,"body":"that we can't afford just to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":880.65,"endTime":884.13,"body":"fly tip into the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":884.13,"endTime":885.73,"body":"as we're doing it at the moment."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":887.01,"endTime":889.05,"body":"That said, of course,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":889.05,"endTime":892.32,"body":"part of waste disposal,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":889.05,"endTime":892.32,"body":"part of waste management"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":892.32,"endTime":894.66,"body":"is minimizing the amount"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":892.32,"endTime":894.66,"body":"of waste you generation,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":894.66,"endTime":895.98,"body":"of course,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":895.98,"endTime":900.09,"body":"so absolutely, we do need to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":895.98,"endTime":900.09,"body":"burn this second lump slower,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":900.09,"endTime":903.363,"body":"it's nuts that we're burning"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":900.09,"endTime":903.363,"body":"it faster than ever right now,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":904.32,"endTime":907.68,"body":"but we also have to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":904.32,"endTime":907.68,"body":"acknowledge that we need a plan"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":907.68,"endTime":909.87,"body":"for dealing with the carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":909.87,"endTime":913.56,"body":"generated by whatever fossil fuels we burn"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":913.56,"endTime":917.01,"body":"in excess of the limit"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":917.01,"endTime":919.68,"body":"that we can afford to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":917.01,"endTime":919.68,"body":"dump in the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":919.68,"endTime":921.69,"body":"and that fundamentally changes"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":921.69,"endTime":925.02,"body":"the way you have to think"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":921.69,"endTime":925.02,"body":"about the climate problem."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":925.02,"endTime":925.98,"body":"So just to go back"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":925.98,"endTime":930.6,"body":"to this climate policy"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":925.98,"endTime":930.6,"body":"before net zero question,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":930.6,"endTime":935.6,"body":"that was the graph that"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":930.6,"endTime":935.6,"body":"Aubrey Meyer put up in 1990,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":937.44,"endTime":939.06,"body":"when he first envisaged"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":939.06,"endTime":942.39,"body":"this contraction and convergence scenario,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":942.39,"endTime":947.31,"body":"that's what's actually happened"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":942.39,"endTime":947.31,"body":"to emissions since 1990."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":947.31,"endTime":950.55,"body":"That's what they thought was needed"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":950.55,"endTime":952.56,"body":"to stop climate change,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":952.56,"endTime":954.81,"body":"and of course what is actually needed"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":954.81,"endTime":957.93,"body":"is to reduce emissions"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":954.81,"endTime":957.93,"body":"all the way down to zero,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":957.93,"endTime":962.64,"body":"and I'll explain why in"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":957.93,"endTime":962.64,"body":"the next three lectures,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":962.64,"endTime":966.66,"body":"so if you want to know"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":962.64,"endTime":966.66,"body":"why it has to go to zero,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":966.66,"endTime":968.163,"body":"as a matter physics,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":969.283,"endTime":973.803,"body":"that's the topic of"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":969.283,"endTime":973.803,"body":"the lectures coming up."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":975.09,"endTime":977.373,"body":"The next question, of course, is,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":978.27,"endTime":980.85,"body":"okay, we need to stop"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":978.27,"endTime":980.85,"body":"dumping carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":980.85,"endTime":982.05,"body":"into the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":982.05,"endTime":984.06,"body":"to stop climate change,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":984.06,"endTime":985.4,"body":"and the next question, of course,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":985.4,"endTime":987.57,"body":"is how long have we got to do that?"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":987.57,"endTime":989.7,"body":"And again, it's easy to get lost"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":989.7,"endTime":993.6,"body":"in the complexity of"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":989.7,"endTime":993.6,"body":"scenarios of future climate,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":993.6,"endTime":997.02,"body":"and the complexities of climate modeling,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":997.02,"endTime":999.48,"body":"when actually it's really, very simple,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":999.48,"endTime":1002.12,"body":"and I spend a lot of"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":999.48,"endTime":1002.12,"body":"my life as a physicist"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1002.12,"endTime":1004.04,"body":"trying to make things"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1002.12,"endTime":1004.04,"body":"as simple as possible,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1004.04,"endTime":1006.02,"body":"that's what we do as physicists,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1006.02,"endTime":1009.383,"body":"we look for simple ways"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1006.02,"endTime":1009.383,"body":"of explaining things."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1011.75,"endTime":1013.94,"body":"The simplest way of conveying"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1013.94,"endTime":1016.7,"body":"why we haven't got very much time left"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1016.7,"endTime":1017.99,"body":"is just to think of it"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1017.99,"endTime":1021.62,"body":"in terms of a braking time problem."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1021.62,"endTime":1025.04,"body":"If you think back to"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1021.62,"endTime":1025.04,"body":"your driving theory test,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1025.04,"endTime":1030.04,"body":"if you've got 1.5 seconds"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1025.04,"endTime":1030.04,"body":"before you get to the junction,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1030.41,"endTime":1031.94,"body":"and you hit the brakes now,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1031.94,"endTime":1034.49,"body":"you've got three seconds to stop,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1034.49,"endTime":1036.56,"body":"and then you'll stop at the junction."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1036.56,"endTime":1039.08,"body":"If it's not obvious"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1036.56,"endTime":1039.08,"body":"why it's three seconds,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1039.08,"endTime":1039.913,"body":"think about it,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1039.913,"endTime":1041.75,"body":"one of your neighbors is probably nodding"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1041.75,"endTime":1043.88,"body":"as if they understand why"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1041.75,"endTime":1043.88,"body":"it's 3 seconds, not 1.5,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1043.88,"endTime":1046.28,"body":"'cause you're slowing down,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1046.28,"endTime":1048.56,"body":"okay, then talk to that"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1046.28,"endTime":1048.56,"body":"neighbor afterwards"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1048.56,"endTime":1050.36,"body":"if it's not obvious why."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1050.36,"endTime":1055.36,"body":"So that's the driving test"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1050.36,"endTime":1055.36,"body":"example that everybody knows,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1057.41,"endTime":1059.81,"body":"or at least knew for the short duration"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1059.81,"endTime":1062.36,"body":"in which they had to do"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1059.81,"endTime":1062.36,"body":"the driving theory test."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1062.36,"endTime":1064.76,"body":"On current trends,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1064.76,"endTime":1067.16,"body":"we will reach 1.5,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1067.16,"endTime":1069.2,"body":"by exactly the same logic,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1069.2,"endTime":1071.51,"body":"if it's 15 years before"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1069.2,"endTime":1071.51,"body":"we reach 1.5 degrees,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1071.51,"endTime":1073.46,"body":"then we've got 30 years"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1071.51,"endTime":1073.46,"body":"to top the warming,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1073.46,"endTime":1075.383,"body":"it's exactly the same maths."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1077.0,"endTime":1080.96,"body":"At the moment, we will reach"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1077.0,"endTime":1080.96,"body":"1.5 degrees before 2035,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1080.96,"endTime":1083.51,"body":"so that's why we need to stop the warming"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1083.51,"endTime":1084.64,"body":"around mid-century"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1084.64,"endTime":1089.64,"body":"if we want to limit warming"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1084.64,"endTime":1089.64,"body":"to around 1.5 degrees."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1090.65,"endTime":1093.23,"body":"So it's not a matter of"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1090.65,"endTime":1093.23,"body":"complicated modeling,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1093.23,"endTime":1096.29,"body":"there's much we can"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1093.23,"endTime":1096.29,"body":"criticize in climate models,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1096.29,"endTime":1098.39,"body":"but you don't need them"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1096.29,"endTime":1098.39,"body":"to understand this,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1098.39,"endTime":1100.029,"body":"it's a simple matter of geometry,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1100.029,"endTime":1102.38,"body":"we're at 1.2 degrees right now,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1102.38,"endTime":1104.81,"body":"we're warming at 0.2 degrees per decade,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1104.81,"endTime":1107.81,"body":"in order to limit warming to 1.5 degrees,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1107.81,"endTime":1109.793,"body":"we've got about 30 years to stop it,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1111.71,"endTime":1113.423,"body":"well, less than 30 years now."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1114.47,"endTime":1117.742,"body":"So it's clear to me,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1117.742,"endTime":1120.14,"body":"and I hope it's reasonably clear to you,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1120.14,"endTime":1123.05,"body":"that we have to stop fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1123.05,"endTime":1124.643,"body":"from causing global warming."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1125.51,"endTime":1127.43,"body":"And this image behind me"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1127.43,"endTime":1132.323,"body":"is an illustration of quite"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1127.43,"endTime":1132.323,"body":"how hard that could be."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1133.82,"endTime":1135.773,"body":"A lot of my colleagues,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1135.773,"endTime":1137.633,"body":"I'm in a geography department,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1139.07,"endTime":1143.51,"body":"working with social"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1139.07,"endTime":1143.51,"body":"scientists and economists,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1143.51,"endTime":1144.35,"body":"they're very fond of saying,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1144.35,"endTime":1146.39,"body":"well the one thing we really need to do"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1146.39,"endTime":1147.47,"body":"to address climate change"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1147.47,"endTime":1149.12,"body":"is introduce a carbon price,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1149.12,"endTime":1151.34,"body":"a carbon price is what we need,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1151.34,"endTime":1153.05,"body":"and I like to show them this figure"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1153.05,"endTime":1155.45,"body":"because it's a village in Greece"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1155.45,"endTime":1160.23,"body":"where they discovered the"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1155.45,"endTime":1160.23,"body":"village was built on lignite,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1160.23,"endTime":1163.46,"body":"a very high-carbon form of brown coal,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1163.46,"endTime":1164.293,"body":"and as you can see,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1164.293,"endTime":1167.45,"body":"they dug out the ground"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1164.293,"endTime":1167.45,"body":"underneath their houses,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1167.45,"endTime":1169.55,"body":"leaving only the church standing,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1169.55,"endTime":1171.8,"body":"in order to get at the lignite."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1171.8,"endTime":1173.03,"body":"So if anybody ever tells you"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1173.03,"endTime":1174.29,"body":"the solution to climate change"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1174.29,"endTime":1176.42,"body":"is to introduce a carbon price,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1176.42,"endTime":1178.4,"body":"point out that only a carbon price"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1178.4,"endTime":1180.95,"body":"higher than the threat"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1178.4,"endTime":1180.95,"body":"of eternal damnation"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1180.95,"endTime":1183.88,"body":"would be enough to stop"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1180.95,"endTime":1183.88,"body":"people using fossil fuels,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1183.88,"endTime":1186.14,"body":"so we need to stop fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1186.14,"endTime":1187.97,"body":"from causing global warming"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1187.97,"endTime":1191.153,"body":"before the world stops using fossil fuels."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1192.17,"endTime":1193.31,"body":"Talking of carbon prices,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1193.31,"endTime":1194.72,"body":"remember back in 2018,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1194.72,"endTime":1198.443,"body":"when Macron introduced a"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1194.72,"endTime":1198.443,"body":"carbon price of 12 euros a ton?"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1199.37,"endTime":1201.02,"body":"We'll be talking about much higher prices"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1201.02,"endTime":1202.73,"body":"as we go on through this lecture,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1202.73,"endTime":1204.29,"body":"it almost brought down his government,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1204.29,"endTime":1206.39,"body":"with the Yellow Vest Movement."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1206.39,"endTime":1210.44,"body":"So fixing this problem"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1210.44,"endTime":1215.42,"body":"by telling people not to use"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1210.44,"endTime":1215.42,"body":"fossil fuels isn't working,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1215.42,"endTime":1219.23,"body":"and what really worries"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1215.42,"endTime":1219.23,"body":"me at the moment in the UK"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1219.23,"endTime":1223.55,"body":"is that those who care about climate"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1223.55,"endTime":1224.92,"body":"seem to think that what we need to do"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1224.92,"endTime":1229.1,"body":"is just try harder to tell"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1224.92,"endTime":1229.1,"body":"people not to use fossil fuels,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1229.1,"endTime":1233.45,"body":"and we've already got a"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1229.1,"endTime":1233.45,"body":"building reaction to that"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1233.45,"endTime":1235.04,"body":"with, I understand,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1235.04,"endTime":1236.78,"body":"the likes of Nigel Farage"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1236.78,"endTime":1238.73,"body":"seeing this as an opportunity"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1238.73,"endTime":1243.223,"body":"to find the next big Brexit cause,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1244.73,"endTime":1247.94,"body":"fighting back against the net zero agenda"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1247.94,"endTime":1250.523,"body":"telling them not to use fossil fuels."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1251.42,"endTime":1254.81,"body":"So although the sign here is in French,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1254.81,"endTime":1257.9,"body":"I could well imagine"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1254.81,"endTime":1257.9,"body":"similar marches in Britain"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1257.9,"endTime":1259.73,"body":"in the latter part of this decade,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1259.73,"endTime":1262.19,"body":"when, in theory,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1262.19,"endTime":1265.61,"body":"we're banning internal"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1262.19,"endTime":1265.61,"body":"combustion engine sales"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1265.61,"endTime":1268.61,"body":"and requiring everybody"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1265.61,"endTime":1268.61,"body":"to drive electric cars,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1268.61,"endTime":1270.71,"body":"and the middle classes are all fine"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1270.71,"endTime":1272.96,"body":"because they've got driveways"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1270.71,"endTime":1272.96,"body":"to plug their cars into,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1272.96,"endTime":1274.97,"body":"and everybody else is spending"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1272.96,"endTime":1274.97,"body":"20 minutes every night"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1274.97,"endTime":1278.09,"body":"wandering around, looking"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1274.97,"endTime":1278.09,"body":"for a charging post,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1278.09,"endTime":1281.75,"body":"that's exactly the kind of scenario"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1281.75,"endTime":1286.75,"body":"that would be jam for Nigel"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1281.75,"endTime":1286.75,"body":"Farage, I've no doubt."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1287.36,"endTime":1289.31,"body":"So how do we stop fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1289.31,"endTime":1290.42,"body":"from causing global warming"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1290.42,"endTime":1292.73,"body":"before the world stops using fossil fuels?"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1292.73,"endTime":1293.66,"body":"One solution,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1293.66,"endTime":1296.54,"body":"which rather blindsided me, to be honest,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1296.54,"endTime":1299.12,"body":"when it suddenly got everywhere"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1299.12,"endTime":1301.19,"body":"about two or three years ago,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1301.19,"endTime":1302.023,"body":"is the idea,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1302.023,"endTime":1303.8,"body":"ah, we can solve the problem with nature,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1303.8,"endTime":1305.21,"body":"nature will be the solution,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1305.21,"endTime":1306.92,"body":"we can plant trees,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1306.92,"endTime":1310.04,"body":"and the trees will absorb the"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1306.92,"endTime":1310.04,"body":"carbon that we're generating"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1310.04,"endTime":1311.96,"body":"by burning fossil fuels,"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1311.96,"endTime":1316.96,"body":"and this is how we will"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1311.96,"endTime":1316.96,"body":"solve the climate problem."},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1318.86,"endTime":1322.193,"body":"There was even a headline"},{"speaker":"Just to remind you where we were in 2007","startTime":1318.86,"endTime":1322.193,"body":"in a scientific journal,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1323.367,"endTime":1326.51,"body":"the best solution"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1323.367,"endTime":1326.51,"body":"to climate change to date,\""},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1326.51,"endTime":1329.33,"body":"was, I think, the line they came out with."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1329.33,"endTime":1330.92,"body":"Lots of people obviously liked this,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1330.92,"endTime":1332.48,"body":"'cause people like trees,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1332.48,"endTime":1333.86,"body":"people like all the benefits"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1333.86,"endTime":1335.27,"body":"of planting forests, and so on,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1335.27,"endTime":1338.716,"body":"there's a lot that can be got out of this,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1338.716,"endTime":1341.15,"body":"and some fossil fuel companies"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1341.15,"endTime":1342.74,"body":"even like to encourage us"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1342.74,"endTime":1344.27,"body":"that we can drive carbon neutral"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1344.27,"endTime":1347.153,"body":"by protecting and restoring forests."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1350.3,"endTime":1351.65,"body":"But the problem,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1351.65,"endTime":1354.08,"body":"when you think about this as a physicist,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1354.08,"endTime":1356.75,"body":"thinking about the planet as a whole,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1356.75,"endTime":1360.95,"body":"is, can we rely on the biosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1360.95,"endTime":1363.53,"body":"as a place to put the carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1363.53,"endTime":1366.89,"body":"that we generate from"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1363.53,"endTime":1366.89,"body":"burning fossil fuels?"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1366.89,"endTime":1368.39,"body":"And this, sadly,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1368.39,"endTime":1370.88,"body":"is a rainforest in Brazil"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1370.88,"endTime":1374.48,"body":"where large amounts of"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1370.88,"endTime":1374.48,"body":"Norwegian money had been spent"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1374.48,"endTime":1378.893,"body":"protecting that rainforest"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1374.48,"endTime":1378.893,"body":"for carbon credits,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1379.88,"endTime":1381.71,"body":"and it's great that they"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1379.88,"endTime":1381.71,"body":"did protect the rainforest,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1381.71,"endTime":1384.23,"body":"but then, sadly, there was a"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1381.71,"endTime":1384.23,"body":"change of government in Brazil"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1384.23,"endTime":1386.51,"body":"and this is what happened to it."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1386.51,"endTime":1388.01,"body":"Carbon in the biosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1388.01,"endTime":1390.14,"body":"it's very important to protect it,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1390.14,"endTime":1392.78,"body":"but relying on it as a carbon dump,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1392.78,"endTime":1395.39,"body":"as a place where we can"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1392.78,"endTime":1395.39,"body":"just dump the carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1395.39,"endTime":1397.46,"body":"we generate from burning fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1397.46,"endTime":1400.16,"body":"is not a viable solution."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1400.16,"endTime":1402.71,"body":"In fact, we published a paper last year"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1402.71,"endTime":1403.88,"body":"which looked specifically at this,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1403.88,"endTime":1406.4,"body":"taking the most optimistic estimates"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1406.4,"endTime":1408.56,"body":"of what we could achieve"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1408.56,"endTime":1412.19,"body":"through nature-based"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1408.56,"endTime":1412.19,"body":"solutions to capturing carbon,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1412.19,"endTime":1415.22,"body":"and we found they could shave"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1412.19,"endTime":1415.22,"body":"perhaps 1/10 of a degree"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1415.22,"endTime":1417.23,"body":"off global temperatures by mid-century,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1417.23,"endTime":1419.21,"body":"perhaps 2/10 or 3/10 of a degree"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1419.21,"endTime":1420.043,"body":"by the end of the century,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1420.043,"endTime":1422.72,"body":"for the simple reason that"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1420.043,"endTime":1422.72,"body":"trees take time to grow,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1422.72,"endTime":1425.24,"body":"and meanwhile, fossil fuel emissions"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1425.24,"endTime":1426.68,"body":"are driving up global temperatures"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1426.68,"endTime":1428.9,"body":"by 2/10 of a degree per decade."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1428.9,"endTime":1431.69,"body":"So yes, nature-based solutions can help,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1431.69,"endTime":1433.64,"body":"but to suggest they're the solution,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1433.64,"endTime":1437.45,"body":"and that we can neutralize"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1433.64,"endTime":1437.45,"body":"our impact on the climate"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1437.45,"endTime":1438.95,"body":"by appealing to nature"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1438.95,"endTime":1442.22,"body":"I think is probably the"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1438.95,"endTime":1442.22,"body":"most misleading aspect"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1442.22,"endTime":1445.67,"body":"of net zero discussions at the moment."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1445.67,"endTime":1447.74,"body":"And it's understandable that, in fact,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1447.74,"endTime":1451.28,"body":"many young people are getting"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1447.74,"endTime":1451.28,"body":"quite angry about net zero"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1451.28,"endTime":1453.41,"body":"because they see it as just an excuse"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1453.41,"endTime":1454.94,"body":"for companies to say,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1454.94,"endTime":1456.32,"body":"yeah, we're net zero,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1456.32,"endTime":1458.54,"body":"we bought some forests somewhere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1458.54,"endTime":1461.15,"body":"and we've got this whole"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1458.54,"endTime":1461.15,"body":"thing under control,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1461.15,"endTime":1461.983,"body":"and meanwhile,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1461.983,"endTime":1463.16,"body":"they're just carrying on"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1461.983,"endTime":1463.16,"body":"with business as usual,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1463.16,"endTime":1464.12,"body":"and it's understandable"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1464.12,"endTime":1466.58,"body":"why people are getting angry about this."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1466.58,"endTime":1470.54,"body":"So, do we have to do what"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1466.58,"endTime":1470.54,"body":"these demonstrators are arguing"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1470.54,"endTime":1473.51,"body":"and just ban fossil fuels entirely?"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1473.51,"endTime":1474.62,"body":"Keep it in the ground"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1474.62,"endTime":1476.72,"body":"was the big slogan a few years ago,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1476.72,"endTime":1480.29,"body":"and now we have a movement"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1480.29,"endTime":1483.473,"body":"for a fossil fuel nonproliferation treaty,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1484.34,"endTime":1485.48,"body":"where people can sign up,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1485.48,"endTime":1487.52,"body":"and many cities are"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1485.48,"endTime":1487.52,"body":"now signing up to this,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1487.52,"endTime":1489.5,"body":"lots of churches are signing up,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1489.5,"endTime":1492.17,"body":"to say, we're going to ban"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1492.17,"endTime":1495.2,"body":"new extraction of fossil fuels entirely,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1495.2,"endTime":1497.57,"body":"and one of the big results of COP26,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1497.57,"endTime":1499.94,"body":"the big meeting in Glasgow last year,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1499.94,"endTime":1501.32,"body":"was, various governments,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1501.32,"endTime":1502.52,"body":"including our own,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1502.52,"endTime":1504.41,"body":"agreeing that we would no longer fund"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1504.41,"endTime":1509.41,"body":"new fossil fuel projects"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1504.41,"endTime":1509.41,"body":"through development finance."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1509.72,"endTime":1511.43,"body":"So for example,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1511.43,"endTime":1512.99,"body":"we've been firmly saying"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1512.99,"endTime":1515.18,"body":"to various countries in Africa"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1515.18,"endTime":1516.44,"body":"that we won't lend them money"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1516.44,"endTime":1518.453,"body":"to develop their fossil fuel reserves."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1519.35,"endTime":1523.67,"body":"Now, we're busy inviting investors"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1523.67,"endTime":1526.58,"body":"to develop fossil fuel"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1523.67,"endTime":1526.58,"body":"extraction in the North Sea,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1526.58,"endTime":1528.71,"body":"while turning round to"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1526.58,"endTime":1528.71,"body":"Mozambique and saying,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1528.71,"endTime":1531.05,"body":"no, you should leave"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1528.71,"endTime":1531.05,"body":"your gas in the ground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1531.05,"endTime":1532.19,"body":"and understandably,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1532.19,"endTime":1535.253,"body":"a lot of African countries"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1532.19,"endTime":1535.253,"body":"are not happy about this."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1536.72,"endTime":1538.4,"body":"It's completely understandable why,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1538.4,"endTime":1541.61,"body":"because the whole notion of"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1538.4,"endTime":1541.61,"body":"keeping it in the ground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1541.61,"endTime":1542.84,"body":"you've got to ask yourself,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1542.84,"endTime":1545.12,"body":"whose ground are you keeping it in?"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1545.12,"endTime":1549.65,"body":"This is a map from geoexpro.com,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1549.65,"endTime":1551.99,"body":"which I'm sure is not an"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1549.65,"endTime":1551.99,"body":"environmentalist site,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1551.99,"endTime":1555.11,"body":"but it shows you wells to watch in 2022,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1555.11,"endTime":1560.11,"body":"these are the big"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1555.11,"endTime":1560.11,"body":"prospective oil and gas finds"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1560.15,"endTime":1561.38,"body":"at the moment,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1561.38,"endTime":1564.14,"body":"where they think there's a"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1561.38,"endTime":1564.14,"body":"lot of fossil fuels there,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1564.14,"endTime":1566.36,"body":"just look at where they are,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1566.36,"endTime":1568.37,"body":"and ask yourself where"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1566.36,"endTime":1568.37,"body":"the demonstrators are"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1568.37,"endTime":1570.95,"body":"who are saying, keep it in the ground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1570.95,"endTime":1573.2,"body":"and you can see why"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1570.95,"endTime":1573.2,"body":"we've got a problem here."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1575.48,"endTime":1576.313,"body":"We in Britain,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1576.313,"endTime":1579.23,"body":"who've been busily burning"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1576.313,"endTime":1579.23,"body":"our fossil fuels for 250 years"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1579.23,"endTime":1582.05,"body":"suddenly turning around"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1579.23,"endTime":1582.05,"body":"to Ghana, to Mozambique,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1582.05,"endTime":1582.883,"body":"and saying,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1582.883,"endTime":1584.39,"body":"no, we want you to leave them alone."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1585.26,"endTime":1586.61,"body":"So we need a different take,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1586.61,"endTime":1588.14,"body":"we need a different approach,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1588.14,"endTime":1590.63,"body":"and let's just step back"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1590.63,"endTime":1594.083,"body":"and think about the problem as a whole."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1595.34,"endTime":1596.933,"body":"This is where we are,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1598.31,"endTime":1600.38,"body":"we're extracting carbon."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1600.38,"endTime":1601.58,"body":"The thickness of the arrows"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1601.58,"endTime":1605.15,"body":"shows you the flux of carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1605.15,"endTime":1607.04,"body":"moving from one sphere to another."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1607.04,"endTime":1609.74,"body":"You can think of carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1607.04,"endTime":1609.74,"body":"in the climate system"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1609.74,"endTime":1612.08,"body":"as residing in three spheres"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1612.08,"endTime":1614.15,"body":"that are directly affected"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1612.08,"endTime":1614.15,"body":"by human activity,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1614.15,"endTime":1618.593,"body":"the atmosphere, the"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1614.15,"endTime":1618.593,"body":"biosphere, and the geosphere."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1619.58,"endTime":1621.89,"body":"The biosphere is mostly plants"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1621.89,"endTime":1623.78,"body":"and biologically-active soils,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1623.78,"endTime":1627.14,"body":"the geosphere is rocks, sediments,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1627.14,"endTime":1629.42,"body":"and of course fossil fuels."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1629.42,"endTime":1630.38,"body":"So at the moment,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1630.38,"endTime":1633.26,"body":"we are extracting carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1630.38,"endTime":1633.26,"body":"from the geosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1633.26,"endTime":1635.18,"body":"at a colossal rate,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1635.18,"endTime":1636.53,"body":"dumping it in the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1636.53,"endTime":1639.08,"body":"we're a lot of extracting"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1636.53,"endTime":1639.08,"body":"carbon from the biosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1639.08,"endTime":1641.03,"body":"by burning down forests,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1641.03,"endTime":1645.05,"body":"we are recovering some"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1641.03,"endTime":1645.05,"body":"carbon into the biosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1645.05,"endTime":1648.08,"body":"but overall, there's a net"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1645.05,"endTime":1648.08,"body":"flux out of the biosphere."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1648.08,"endTime":1650.6,"body":"So the amount of carbon in"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1648.08,"endTime":1650.6,"body":"the geosphere is going down,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1650.6,"endTime":1652.607,"body":"the amount of carbon in the"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1650.6,"endTime":1652.607,"body":"biosphere is going down,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1652.607,"endTime":1654.17,"body":"and the amount of carbon in the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1654.17,"endTime":1655.703,"body":"is going up very rapidly."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1656.93,"endTime":1660.65,"body":"This is what most people"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1656.93,"endTime":1660.65,"body":"think of as net zero,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1660.65,"endTime":1663.08,"body":"or at least this is the"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1660.65,"endTime":1663.08,"body":"way net zero is envisaged"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1663.08,"endTime":1665.99,"body":"in most net zero commitments today,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1665.99,"endTime":1670.37,"body":"which means we achieve a delicate balance."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1670.37,"endTime":1673.07,"body":"By the way, this is the"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1670.37,"endTime":1673.07,"body":"way net zero is defined"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1673.07,"endTime":1675.44,"body":"in the UK Government's thinking,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1675.44,"endTime":1677.48,"body":"I'm not just talking about companies here,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1677.48,"endTime":1679.64,"body":"this is also in our government's thinking,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1679.64,"endTime":1681.2,"body":"we achieve a delicate balance"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1681.2,"endTime":1682.58,"body":"between carbon into the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1682.58,"endTime":1684.593,"body":"and carbon coming out of the atmosphere."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1685.52,"endTime":1686.54,"body":"But you can see,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1686.54,"endTime":1689.51,"body":"we're still taking carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1686.54,"endTime":1689.51,"body":"out of the geosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1689.51,"endTime":1693.14,"body":"even though we've introduced"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1689.51,"endTime":1693.14,"body":"some return carbon,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1693.14,"endTime":1696.38,"body":"some capture from the biosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1696.38,"endTime":1700.82,"body":"this would be processes"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1696.38,"endTime":1700.82,"body":"like burning biomass,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1700.82,"endTime":1702.05,"body":"capturing the carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1702.05,"endTime":1703.65,"body":"and re-injecting it underground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1704.54,"endTime":1707.39,"body":"something that we're"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1704.54,"endTime":1707.39,"body":"proposing to do in Yorkshire,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1707.39,"endTime":1711.08,"body":"we can talk about that"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1707.39,"endTime":1711.08,"body":"later if you're interested,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1711.08,"endTime":1712.49,"body":"there was an interesting program about it"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1712.49,"endTime":1714.38,"body":"on \"Panorama\" last week."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1714.38,"endTime":1718.82,"body":"This arrow here is newer technologies"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1718.82,"endTime":1720.62,"body":"for actually capturing carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1720.62,"endTime":1721.67,"body":"straight out of the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1721.67,"endTime":1723.23,"body":"and putting it back in the geosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1723.23,"endTime":1727.82,"body":"but we still have more carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1723.23,"endTime":1727.82,"body":"coming out of the geosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1727.82,"endTime":1729.41,"body":"than going back into it,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1729.41,"endTime":1731.51,"body":"and that carbon's ending"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1729.41,"endTime":1731.51,"body":"up in the biosphere."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1731.51,"endTime":1734.42,"body":"So although people think"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1731.51,"endTime":1734.42,"body":"of this as net zero,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1734.42,"endTime":1737.24,"body":"and yes, it's a balance in the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1737.24,"endTime":1738.89,"body":"it should be fairly obvious to you"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1738.89,"endTime":1740.63,"body":"that this is not a sustainable situation,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1740.63,"endTime":1742.703,"body":"you can't turn rocks into trees forever,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1743.66,"endTime":1748.66,"body":"so this is, at best, a temporary solution."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1748.76,"endTime":1751.31,"body":"If we want durable net zero,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1751.31,"endTime":1752.78,"body":"we need this situation,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1752.78,"endTime":1754.79,"body":"where carbon flows"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1754.79,"endTime":1757.76,"body":"into and out of each"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1754.79,"endTime":1757.76,"body":"of these three spheres"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1757.76,"endTime":1759.35,"body":"are balanced,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1759.35,"endTime":1760.853,"body":"and crucially,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1761.84,"endTime":1764.45,"body":"we have geological net zero,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1764.45,"endTime":1767.63,"body":"which means we're putting"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1764.45,"endTime":1767.63,"body":"back into the ground"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1767.63,"endTime":1769.37,"body":"the same amount of carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1769.37,"endTime":1771.53,"body":"that we're taking out of the ground."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1771.53,"endTime":1773.54,"body":"Until we get to that state,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1773.54,"endTime":1776.993,"body":"we're not going to stabilize"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1773.54,"endTime":1776.993,"body":"the climate system."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1778.25,"endTime":1781.4,"body":"So achieving geological net zero"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1781.4,"endTime":1785.6,"body":"is fundamental to solving climate change,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1785.6,"endTime":1789.77,"body":"and it comes down to"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1785.6,"endTime":1789.77,"body":"how we stop fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1789.77,"endTime":1791.363,"body":"from causing global warming."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1792.8,"endTime":1794.3,"body":"This graph behind me"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1794.3,"endTime":1799.3,"body":"shows you a generic, average scenario"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1799.46,"endTime":1801.98,"body":"where we do meet the Paris goal"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1801.98,"endTime":1805.52,"body":"of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1805.52,"endTime":1807.29,"body":"It shows you, in blue,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1807.29,"endTime":1808.79,"body":"emissions to the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1808.79,"endTime":1810.41,"body":"the dark blue line,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1810.41,"endTime":1812.63,"body":"which start from energy and industry,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1812.63,"endTime":1814.97,"body":"there's land use change emissions as well,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1814.97,"endTime":1816.713,"body":"that's a separate talk."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1818.66,"endTime":1820.94,"body":"We need to bring those down to zero,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1820.94,"endTime":1822.713,"body":"emissions to the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1824.72,"endTime":1828.56,"body":"and you've seen this graph,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1824.72,"endTime":1828.56,"body":"I'm sure, many times,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1828.56,"endTime":1829.97,"body":"it needs to get to net zero"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1829.97,"endTime":1831.773,"body":"sometime in the 2050s, or so."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1833.27,"endTime":1835.76,"body":"But what you're often not shown is that,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1835.76,"endTime":1837.44,"body":"in these scenarios,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1837.44,"endTime":1839.96,"body":"we don't actually reduce"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1837.44,"endTime":1839.96,"body":"the amount of carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1839.96,"endTime":1843.32,"body":"we produce in energy and industry"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1843.32,"endTime":1845.09,"body":"by nearly to zero,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1845.09,"endTime":1847.793,"body":"it goes down by about 2/3 to 3/4 or so."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1850.97,"endTime":1853.85,"body":"So we achieve net zero, first of all,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1853.85,"endTime":1855.38,"body":"by burning less carbon,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1855.38,"endTime":1857.573,"body":"so we generate less carbon dioxide,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1859.28,"endTime":1862.34,"body":"it's got to come down a long"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1859.28,"endTime":1862.34,"body":"way from where it is now,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1862.34,"endTime":1863.513,"body":"but at the same time,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1864.59,"endTime":1869.59,"body":"we also ramp up the amount we"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1864.59,"endTime":1869.59,"body":"store back into the ground."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1872.6,"endTime":1875.0,"body":"The only way we do this at"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1872.6,"endTime":1875.0,"body":"the moment on any scale,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1875.0,"endTime":1877.34,"body":"there are various other ideas out there,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1877.34,"endTime":1881.21,"body":"is by capturing carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1877.34,"endTime":1881.21,"body":"dioxide, purifying it,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1881.21,"endTime":1883.58,"body":"compressing it until it's a liquid,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1883.58,"endTime":1885.616,"body":"when it has properties"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1883.58,"endTime":1885.616,"body":"very similar to water,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1885.616,"endTime":1889.37,"body":"or for that matter oil"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1885.616,"endTime":1889.37,"body":"and gas underground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1889.37,"endTime":1892.01,"body":"and re-injecting it back into the rock."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1892.01,"endTime":1893.033,"body":"You can do this,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1893.99,"endTime":1895.04,"body":"indeed, the fossil fuel industry"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1895.04,"endTime":1897.11,"body":"has been doing it for decades,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1897.11,"endTime":1899.12,"body":"and if you inject it into"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1897.11,"endTime":1899.12,"body":"the right rock formations,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1899.12,"endTime":1899.953,"body":"it stays there."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1901.46,"endTime":1903.62,"body":"But that's the only way, at the moment,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1903.62,"endTime":1907.82,"body":"we are putting CO2 back underground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1907.82,"endTime":1909.2,"body":"and at the moment,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1909.2,"endTime":1914.2,"body":"we re-inject 40 million"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1909.2,"endTime":1914.2,"body":"tons of carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1914.81,"endTime":1917.54,"body":"into the geosphere in this way."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1917.54,"endTime":1920.12,"body":"40 millions tons sounds like a lot,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1920.12,"endTime":1921.59,"body":"but in perspective,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1921.59,"endTime":1926.59,"body":"that's 1/1000 of the 40"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1921.59,"endTime":1926.59,"body":"billion tons of carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1926.96,"endTime":1928.58,"body":"we generate every year"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1928.58,"endTime":1930.68,"body":"from burning fossil fuels."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1930.68,"endTime":1933.71,"body":"So of every ton of carbon dioxide,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1933.71,"endTime":1935.21,"body":"which, if it was liquid,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1935.21,"endTime":1937.7,"body":"would be roughly a cubic meter,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1937.7,"endTime":1938.54,"body":"obviously, if it's a gas,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1938.54,"endTime":1939.74,"body":"it's much bigger than that,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1939.74,"endTime":1941.96,"body":"but a ton of carbon dioxide, as a liquid,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1941.96,"endTime":1943.85,"body":"is roughly a cubic meter,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1943.85,"endTime":1948.85,"body":"we safely dispose of"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1943.85,"endTime":1948.85,"body":"one liter, one kilogram,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1950.72,"endTime":1952.72,"body":"the rest we just dump in the atmosphere."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1954.41,"endTime":1955.55,"body":"So if we want to stop fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1955.55,"endTime":1956.45,"body":"from causing global warming,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1956.45,"endTime":1957.283,"body":"it's very simple,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1957.283,"endTime":1958.116,"body":"we need to reduce"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1958.116,"endTime":1959.78,"body":"the amount of carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1958.116,"endTime":1959.78,"body":"dioxide we're producing"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1959.78,"endTime":1961.28,"body":"and increase the amount we're storing"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1961.28,"endTime":1962.303,"body":"until they balance,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1963.59,"endTime":1964.79,"body":"that's it,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1964.79,"endTime":1968.063,"body":"that's all there is to it, as it were."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1970.34,"endTime":1971.173,"body":"So right now,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1971.173,"endTime":1974.27,"body":"we're at 0.1%, 1/1000,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1974.27,"endTime":1976.64,"body":"and we need to get that stored fraction,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1976.64,"endTime":1979.67,"body":"the amount of carbon we stick"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1976.64,"endTime":1979.67,"body":"back into the Earth's crust"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1979.67,"endTime":1981.35,"body":"to 100%"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1981.35,"endTime":1983.813,"body":"to stop climate change."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1985.58,"endTime":1987.203,"body":"What will this consist of,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1988.439,"endTime":1990.653,"body":"where will we get this"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1988.439,"endTime":1990.653,"body":"carbon dioxide from?"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1991.73,"endTime":1993.02,"body":"To start with,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1993.02,"endTime":1995.42,"body":"there's a lot of carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1993.02,"endTime":1995.42,"body":"dioxide being generated,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1996.32,"endTime":1998.33,"body":"pure carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1996.32,"endTime":1998.33,"body":"comes out of refineries,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":1998.33,"endTime":2000.61,"body":"it should be relatively easy to trap"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2000.61,"endTime":2003.43,"body":"and re-inject into the Earth's crust,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2003.43,"endTime":2005.35,"body":"but, quite rapidly,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2005.35,"endTime":2008.65,"body":"as we progress through"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2005.35,"endTime":2008.65,"body":"the next 30 years or so,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2008.65,"endTime":2009.55,"body":"we're going to run out"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2009.55,"endTime":2012.76,"body":"of those convenient"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2009.55,"endTime":2012.76,"body":"sources of carbon dioxide,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2012.76,"endTime":2016.24,"body":"and by the time you get to 2050,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2016.24,"endTime":2018.97,"body":"probably most of the applications"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2018.97,"endTime":2022.42,"body":"that we're still using fossil fuels for"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2022.42,"endTime":2023.35,"body":"will be things"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2023.35,"endTime":2026.29,"body":"where you can't really"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2023.35,"endTime":2026.29,"body":"capture the carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2026.29,"endTime":2028.21,"body":"where it's generated,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2028.21,"endTime":2030.28,"body":"you can't put a big plastic bag"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2030.28,"endTime":2031.75,"body":"on the back of a jet engine"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2031.75,"endTime":2034.599,"body":"and capture all the carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2031.75,"endTime":2034.599,"body":"dioxide coming out of it,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2034.599,"endTime":2035.432,"body":"apart from anything else,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2035.432,"endTime":2037.47,"body":"it wouldn't work as a jet"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2035.432,"endTime":2037.47,"body":"engine anymore, would it."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2039.46,"endTime":2042.25,"body":"And aviation will still"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2039.46,"endTime":2042.25,"body":"be using fossil fuels,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2042.25,"endTime":2045.01,"body":"I would confidently predict, in 2050,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2045.01,"endTime":2047.08,"body":"so that's one example of an activity"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2047.08,"endTime":2050.35,"body":"which we won't be able"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2047.08,"endTime":2050.35,"body":"to capture carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2050.35,"endTime":2051.55,"body":"where it's generated,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2051.55,"endTime":2052.57,"body":"and we'll have no option"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2052.57,"endTime":2054.94,"body":"but to capture it back"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2052.57,"endTime":2054.94,"body":"out of the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2054.94,"endTime":2057.46,"body":"to recapture carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2054.94,"endTime":2057.46,"body":"dioxide from the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2057.46,"endTime":2058.963,"body":"and stick it back underground."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2060.46,"endTime":2062.44,"body":"In these scenarios,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2062.44,"endTime":2063.43,"body":"that's what happens,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2063.43,"endTime":2065.86,"body":"we eventually achieve net zero"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2065.86,"endTime":2069.61,"body":"by recapturing carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2065.86,"endTime":2069.61,"body":"back out of the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2069.61,"endTime":2070.99,"body":"and sticking it back underground"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2070.99,"endTime":2074.08,"body":"to balance the carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2070.99,"endTime":2074.08,"body":"that's still generated"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2074.08,"endTime":2076.423,"body":"by any further use of fossil fuels."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2077.8,"endTime":2079.39,"body":"You should ask yourself,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2079.39,"endTime":2081.97,"body":"really, is that how it can work,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2081.97,"endTime":2086.05,"body":"can we really suck carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2081.97,"endTime":2086.05,"body":"dioxide out of thin air?"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2086.05,"endTime":2087.85,"body":"There are companies already out there"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2087.85,"endTime":2089.98,"body":"saying we can do this,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2089.98,"endTime":2091.39,"body":"but you should always"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2089.98,"endTime":2091.39,"body":"be slightly suspicious."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2091.39,"endTime":2094.93,"body":"This is, of course, an"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2091.39,"endTime":2094.93,"body":"artist's impression of a plant,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2094.93,"endTime":2097.51,"body":"although it is a plant"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2094.93,"endTime":2097.51,"body":"that is being built,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2097.51,"endTime":2099.16,"body":"and we'll come back to"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2097.51,"endTime":2099.16,"body":"this plant in a minute"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2099.16,"endTime":2102.67,"body":"because I think it is a very"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2099.16,"endTime":2102.67,"body":"important new data point"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2102.67,"endTime":2104.8,"body":"we've got at the moment,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2104.8,"endTime":2106.96,"body":"but this is a collaboration"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2106.96,"endTime":2108.67,"body":"between a company called"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2106.96,"endTime":2108.67,"body":"Carbon Engineering"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2108.67,"endTime":2113.67,"body":"and indeed Oxy, a large"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2108.67,"endTime":2113.67,"body":"oil and gas company,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2113.74,"endTime":2118.74,"body":"to build a plant that will suck air in,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2119.35,"endTime":2121.9,"body":"filter out the carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2119.35,"endTime":2121.9,"body":"dioxide from the air,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2121.9,"endTime":2124.6,"body":"compress the carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2121.9,"endTime":2124.6,"body":"until it's a liquid,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2124.6,"endTime":2128.203,"body":"and then re-inject it back"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2124.6,"endTime":2128.203,"body":"into the Earth's crust."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2129.34,"endTime":2132.61,"body":"They will, in an interesting twist,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2132.61,"endTime":2134.68,"body":"be using that carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2134.68,"endTime":2137.77,"body":"to flush out oil from the Permian Basin,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2137.77,"endTime":2139.3,"body":"because it's a very useful fluid"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2139.3,"endTime":2142.12,"body":"for flushing out oil in the Permian Basin,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2142.12,"endTime":2146.47,"body":"so the exact balance of"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2142.12,"endTime":2146.47,"body":"fossil in this project"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2146.47,"endTime":2149.14,"body":"is debatable and debated,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2149.14,"endTime":2150.34,"body":"but the crucial point is"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2150.34,"endTime":2152.95,"body":"they are putting carbon dioxide away"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2152.95,"endTime":2154.18,"body":"back into the Earth's crust,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2154.18,"endTime":2155.41,"body":"and it stays there,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2155.41,"endTime":2159.4,"body":"that's the important"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2155.41,"endTime":2159.4,"body":"point about that project."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2159.4,"endTime":2161.8,"body":"The other point project is that it's real,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2161.8,"endTime":2162.633,"body":"they're already doing this,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2162.633,"endTime":2165.88,"body":"they've had a pilot"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2162.633,"endTime":2165.88,"body":"plant running since 2015,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2165.88,"endTime":2167.98,"body":"in British Columbia,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2167.98,"endTime":2170.02,"body":"so that purple thing in the middle"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2170.02,"endTime":2172.03,"body":"has been busily capturing carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2172.03,"endTime":2173.02,"body":"from the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2173.02,"endTime":2175.0,"body":"and showing that this whole thing works,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2175.0,"endTime":2178.96,"body":"and they've costed it,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2178.96,"endTime":2180.22,"body":"hence they're in a position"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2180.22,"endTime":2183.73,"body":"to actually go ahead with"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2180.22,"endTime":2183.73,"body":"a full-scale investment."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2183.73,"endTime":2185.89,"body":"A little bit closer to home,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2185.89,"endTime":2187.9,"body":"slightly less beautiful background,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2187.9,"endTime":2190.84,"body":"but here's another pilot"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2187.9,"endTime":2190.84,"body":"direct capture plant"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2190.84,"endTime":2192.85,"body":"in North Lincolnshire,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2192.85,"endTime":2195.55,"body":"where Origen Power are using a process,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2195.55,"endTime":2198.193,"body":"I can talk to you afterwards"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2195.55,"endTime":2198.193,"body":"about if you want,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2199.18,"endTime":2202.03,"body":"where they're generating, essentially,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2202.03,"endTime":2204.61,"body":"a pure carbon dioxide stream,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2204.61,"endTime":2207.31,"body":"which you could then"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2204.61,"endTime":2207.31,"body":"re-inject underground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2207.31,"endTime":2211.51,"body":"and lime, which you use to make cement,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2211.51,"endTime":2214.21,"body":"and you could use the"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2211.51,"endTime":2214.21,"body":"combination of these two"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2214.21,"endTime":2218.203,"body":"to actually trap carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2214.21,"endTime":2218.203,"body":"back out of the atmosphere."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2219.37,"endTime":2221.53,"body":"Interestingly, Origen,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2221.53,"endTime":2225.4,"body":"although Carbon Engineering"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2221.53,"endTime":2225.4,"body":"have got a license"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2225.4,"endTime":2226.233,"body":"from the US Government"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2226.233,"endTime":2229.18,"body":"to start putting their"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2226.233,"endTime":2229.18,"body":"CO2 back underground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2229.18,"endTime":2230.77,"body":"Origen can't get a license"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2230.77,"endTime":2232.36,"body":"to get rid of their CO2,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2232.36,"endTime":2234.96,"body":"so they're just venting it"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2232.36,"endTime":2234.96,"body":"back into the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2236.77,"endTime":2238.453,"body":"but that's the problem we face."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2241.21,"endTime":2242.68,"body":"Now, what does this cost?"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2242.68,"endTime":2244.87,"body":"This sounds like a lot of work to be done,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2244.87,"endTime":2246.46,"body":"and until recently,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2246.46,"endTime":2248.98,"body":"it's been quite difficult,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2248.98,"endTime":2250.57,"body":"estimates for what it would cost"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2250.57,"endTime":2253.69,"body":"to actually get rid of"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2250.57,"endTime":2253.69,"body":"CO2 on an industrial scale"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2253.69,"endTime":2254.89,"body":"have been all over the place,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2254.89,"endTime":2257.413,"body":"from $1,000 per ton, $100 per ton."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2258.25,"endTime":2260.38,"body":"Finally, because of these projects,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2260.38,"endTime":2264.64,"body":"we're actually starting to"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2260.38,"endTime":2264.64,"body":"see what it really costs,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2264.64,"endTime":2267.91,"body":"because that Carbon"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2264.64,"endTime":2267.91,"body":"Engineering-Oxy project"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2267.91,"endTime":2270.04,"body":"that's going ahead in Texas"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2270.04,"endTime":2270.94,"body":"is going ahead"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2270.94,"endTime":2273.13,"body":"on the back of a subsidy"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2270.94,"endTime":2273.13,"body":"from the US Government,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2273.13,"endTime":2274.45,"body":"I'm not a big fan of subsidies,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2274.45,"endTime":2276.01,"body":"but it's quite helpful"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2274.45,"endTime":2276.01,"body":"in this particular case"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2276.01,"endTime":2277.93,"body":"just to work out what it's costing,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2277.93,"endTime":2281.2,"body":"of roughly $250 per ton of CO2."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2281.2,"endTime":2282.79,"body":"So although Oxy and Carbon Engineering"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2282.79,"endTime":2285.34,"body":"claim to be very virtuous global citizens,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2285.34,"endTime":2287.353,"body":"and they're doing this as a loss leader,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2288.58,"endTime":2291.22,"body":"they're probably not losing"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2288.58,"endTime":2291.22,"body":"that much money on it"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2291.22,"endTime":2292.6,"body":"at $250 a ton,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2292.6,"endTime":2294.25,"body":"so that's giving us a data point,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2294.25,"endTime":2296.86,"body":"we know roughly what it costs,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2296.86,"endTime":2300.25,"body":"or roughly what the industry"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2296.86,"endTime":2300.25,"body":"thinks it would cost"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2300.25,"endTime":2302.44,"body":"to recover carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2300.25,"endTime":2302.44,"body":"from the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2302.44,"endTime":2303.67,"body":"and stick it back underground,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2303.67,"endTime":2306.04,"body":"which of course is what we need to do"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2306.04,"endTime":2309.28,"body":"to stop fossil fuels from"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2306.04,"endTime":2309.28,"body":"causing global warming."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2309.28,"endTime":2310.113,"body":"So what does that mean?"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2310.113,"endTime":2314.26,"body":"And this is where I want to"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2310.113,"endTime":2314.26,"body":"get you a little bit riled up."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2314.26,"endTime":2316.41,"body":"What does $250 per ton of CO2,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2319.117,"endTime":2320.816,"body":"that's the cost of disposing of it,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2320.816,"endTime":2321.774,"body":"what does it mean"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2321.774,"endTime":2325.573,"body":"in the context of what"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2321.774,"endTime":2325.573,"body":"we spend of fossil fuels?"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2326.89,"endTime":2328.39,"body":"Just unit conversions here,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2328.39,"endTime":2330.91,"body":"it's roughly $100 on a barrel oil,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2330.91,"endTime":2332.59,"body":"which sounds like a lot,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2332.59,"endTime":2336.46,"body":"but the price of oil has"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2332.59,"endTime":2336.46,"body":"fluctuated by more than that"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2336.46,"endTime":2339.76,"body":"over the past 30, 40 years,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2339.76,"endTime":2341.14,"body":"which tells you that,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2341.14,"endTime":2344.8,"body":"quite frequently over the past 40 years,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2344.8,"endTime":2346.84,"body":"the aggregate rents,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2346.84,"endTime":2349.87,"body":"that's the combination of"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2346.84,"endTime":2349.87,"body":"monies paid to governments"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2349.87,"endTime":2352.24,"body":"and profits made by the extractors,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2352.24,"endTime":2354.04,"body":"have been well in excess"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2354.04,"endTime":2356.26,"body":"of the cost of disposing"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2354.04,"endTime":2356.26,"body":"of the carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2356.26,"endTime":2357.853,"body":"generated by that oil."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2359.98,"endTime":2361.45,"body":"Another way of putting it is,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2361.45,"endTime":2363.67,"body":"also, the world economy,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2363.67,"endTime":2365.77,"body":"although it's wobbled a bit"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2365.77,"endTime":2369.01,"body":"when the price of oil goes up"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2365.77,"endTime":2369.01,"body":"to $100 a barrel or higher,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2369.01,"endTime":2370.24,"body":"it doesn't collapse,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2370.24,"endTime":2373.09,"body":"so we definitely can afford,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2373.09,"endTime":2376.0,"body":"particularly if we have"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2373.09,"endTime":2376.0,"body":"time to adjust to it,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2376.0,"endTime":2378.13,"body":"those higher prices of oil."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2378.13,"endTime":2381.04,"body":"So it's clear that we could afford"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2381.04,"endTime":2382.63,"body":"to get rid of the CO2"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2382.63,"endTime":2386.23,"body":"generated by the oil we use,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2386.23,"endTime":2388.3,"body":"and it's even more obvious"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2388.3,"endTime":2390.213,"body":"when you look at it in the"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2388.3,"endTime":2390.213,"body":"context of petrol prices."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2390.213,"endTime":2395.213,"body":"This is petrol prices"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2390.213,"endTime":2395.213,"body":"in the UK since 2000,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2396.25,"endTime":2400.51,"body":"you can see, between 2004 and 2019,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2402.13,"endTime":2406.15,"body":"petrol prices went up"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2402.13,"endTime":2406.15,"body":"by more than the cost"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2406.15,"endTime":2408.34,"body":"of fully disposing of"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2406.15,"endTime":2408.34,"body":"all the carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2408.34,"endTime":2409.46,"body":"that petrol generated"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2412.45,"endTime":2413.32,"body":"for somebody,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2413.32,"endTime":2414.82,"body":"either the company selling you the petrol"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2414.82,"endTime":2416.08,"body":"or somebody else,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2416.08,"endTime":2418.51,"body":"to literally recapture that carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2418.51,"endTime":2419.343,"body":"out of the atmosphere"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2419.343,"endTime":2421.04,"body":"and stick it back under the North Sea."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2422.5,"endTime":2423.94,"body":"People object when I point"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2422.5,"endTime":2423.94,"body":"this out because they say,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2423.94,"endTime":2424.773,"body":"well if you say that,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2424.773,"endTime":2427.75,"body":"then people won't stop driving."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2427.75,"endTime":2428.92,"body":"Well, if we all had to pay"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2428.92,"endTime":2430.54,"body":"for the cost of carbon dioxide disposal,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2430.54,"endTime":2431.38,"body":"we'd probably drive a lot less,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2431.38,"endTime":2433.42,"body":"and we'd probably drive electric cars,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2433.42,"endTime":2436.18,"body":"so it doesn't necessarily follow,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2436.18,"endTime":2438.16,"body":"but the key point is here"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2438.16,"endTime":2441.7,"body":"we've had a solution to"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2438.16,"endTime":2441.7,"body":"climate change all this time,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2441.7,"endTime":2443.75,"body":"we're just not choosing to talk about it."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2444.61,"endTime":2446.2,"body":"It's even more striking"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2446.2,"endTime":2447.673,"body":"if you look at natural gas."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2449.17,"endTime":2453.61,"body":"A $250 per ton cost of disposing of CO2"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2453.61,"endTime":2456.853,"body":"is 4p per kilowatt hour on natural gas,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2457.96,"endTime":2459.49,"body":"which, if you think"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2457.96,"endTime":2459.49,"body":"about what we're spending"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2459.49,"endTime":2461.38,"body":"on natural gas at the moment,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2461.38,"endTime":2462.643,"body":"isn't a lot of money."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2464.26,"endTime":2468.013,"body":"So let me give you a"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2464.26,"endTime":2468.013,"body":"thought to think about:"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2470.117,"endTime":2474.91,"body":"$250 per ton disposal"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2470.117,"endTime":2474.91,"body":"cost for carbon dioxide,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2474.91,"endTime":2478.27,"body":"which we're already seeing"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2474.91,"endTime":2478.27,"body":"some evidence is realistic,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2478.27,"endTime":2479.62,"body":"it's probably an overestimate"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2479.62,"endTime":2480.88,"body":"of what it would actually cost"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2480.88,"endTime":2483.283,"body":"if the industry had to do it at scale,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2484.21,"endTime":2489.07,"body":"translates into the royalties and profits,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2489.07,"endTime":2489.903,"body":"and it's important"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2489.903,"endTime":2491.44,"body":"it's not just profits"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2489.903,"endTime":2491.44,"body":"made by private companies,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2491.44,"endTime":2495.1,"body":"but a lot of it is royalties"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2491.44,"endTime":2495.1,"body":"going to national exchequers,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2495.1,"endTime":2497.41,"body":"the combined royalties and profits"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2497.41,"endTime":2500.26,"body":"on what we pay for gas today"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2500.26,"endTime":2504.94,"body":"is enough to pay to recapture"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2500.26,"endTime":2504.94,"body":"every single molecule"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2504.94,"endTime":2507.19,"body":"that gas of CO2, that gas generates,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2507.19,"endTime":2509.32,"body":"and to stop it causing global warming"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2509.32,"endTime":2513.703,"body":"and stick that CO2 back under"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2509.32,"endTime":2513.703,"body":"the North Sea twice over,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2515.53,"endTime":2517.513,"body":"and nobody's talking about this."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2522.46,"endTime":2524.35,"body":"I want to think about how,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2524.35,"endTime":2527.26,"body":"in the course of these lectures,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2527.26,"endTime":2531.34,"body":"how we can reconcile Aart and Zoe."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2531.34,"endTime":2533.32,"body":"The way we think about the climate issue"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2533.32,"endTime":2535.51,"body":"is this titanic battle"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2535.51,"endTime":2538.15,"body":"between people like Zoe"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2535.51,"endTime":2538.15,"body":"and people like Aart,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2539.073,"endTime":2540.58,"body":"and the problem with that,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2540.58,"endTime":2542.5,"body":"if you frame it that way,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2542.5,"endTime":2544.84,"body":"is somebody's got to lose,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2544.84,"endTime":2546.76,"body":"and I don't want either"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2544.84,"endTime":2546.76,"body":"of these people to lose,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2546.76,"endTime":2548.89,"body":"they were both really nice people,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2548.89,"endTime":2550.49,"body":"they both care about the planet,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2551.77,"endTime":2553.66,"body":"maybe Aart is Zoe's father,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2553.66,"endTime":2555.273,"body":"that would be fitting, wouldn't it."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2559.12,"endTime":2561.31,"body":"And it's not working, either,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2561.31,"endTime":2564.94,"body":"framing it as this battle"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2564.94,"endTime":2569.47,"body":"between irresistible forces"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2564.94,"endTime":2569.47,"body":"and immovable objects,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2569.47,"endTime":2572.62,"body":"so we need to look for climate solutions"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2572.62,"endTime":2576.25,"body":"that don't pit the fossil fuel industry"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2576.25,"endTime":2577.96,"body":"against the rest of the world,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2577.96,"endTime":2580.24,"body":"because the fossil fuel industry remains,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2580.24,"endTime":2581.71,"body":"80% of our energy supply,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2581.71,"endTime":2583.66,"body":"hasn't budged much in the past 30 years"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2583.66,"endTime":2586.84,"body":"despite all the angst"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2583.66,"endTime":2586.84,"body":"about climate change,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2586.84,"endTime":2589.09,"body":"and it has the resources,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2589.09,"endTime":2592.03,"body":"as I have stressed to you,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2592.03,"endTime":2593.323,"body":"to solve the problem."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2595.24,"endTime":2596.95,"body":"Some chief executives have even admitted"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2596.95,"endTime":2597.783,"body":"they're not quite sure"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2597.783,"endTime":2600.52,"body":"what to do with their money at the moment."},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2600.52,"endTime":2601.87,"body":"Well here's a thought,"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2601.87,"endTime":2604.173,"body":"they could solve climate"},{"speaker":"\"Trees","startTime":2601.87,"endTime":2604.173,"body":"change, couldn't they."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2605.05,"endTime":2607.18,"body":"why net zero?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2607.18,"endTime":2609.46,"body":"Well, we need to stop fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2609.46,"endTime":2611.11,"body":"from causing global warming,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2611.11,"endTime":2612.61,"body":"and to do that,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2612.61,"endTime":2614.8,"body":"we need geological net zero,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2614.8,"endTime":2619.8,"body":"we need to balance carbon"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2614.8,"endTime":2619.8,"body":"coming out of the geosphere"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2619.81,"endTime":2622.69,"body":"with carbon being put"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2619.81,"endTime":2622.69,"body":"back in the geosphere,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2622.69,"endTime":2624.4,"body":"and we need to do that"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2624.4,"endTime":2627.76,"body":"before we stop using fossil fuels,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2627.76,"endTime":2630.7,"body":"because there's only two ways"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2630.7,"endTime":2632.955,"body":"to achieve geological net zero,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2632.955,"endTime":2635.65,"body":"one is to ban fossil fuels entirely,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2635.65,"endTime":2636.82,"body":"and that's all very well"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2636.82,"endTime":2639.73,"body":"saying we'll ban them"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2636.82,"endTime":2639.73,"body":"for ourselves in Britain,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2639.73,"endTime":2642.1,"body":"but what right do we"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2639.73,"endTime":2642.1,"body":"in Britain have to say"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2642.1,"endTime":2642.933,"body":"we're going to ban you"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2642.933,"endTime":2645.67,"body":"from using your fossil fuels, Mozambique,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2645.67,"endTime":2647.56,"body":"so that's not feasible,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2647.56,"endTime":2651.37,"body":"so we have to work out how"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2647.56,"endTime":2651.37,"body":"to decarbonize fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2651.37,"endTime":2654.37,"body":"by safely and and permanently disposing"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2654.37,"endTime":2656.413,"body":"of the carbon dioxide they generate."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2657.28,"endTime":2659.2,"body":"And over the course of"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2657.28,"endTime":2659.2,"body":"these Gresham lectures,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2659.2,"endTime":2661.453,"body":"I'll explain to you"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2659.2,"endTime":2661.453,"body":"why we have to do that,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2662.32,"endTime":2664.03,"body":"how fast we have to do it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2664.03,"endTime":2666.16,"body":"because of the emerging"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2664.03,"endTime":2666.16,"body":"impact of climate change"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2666.16,"endTime":2667.96,"body":"that we'll be talking about next year,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2667.96,"endTime":2669.19,"body":"and in the third year,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2669.19,"endTime":2671.62,"body":"I hope how we're going to do it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2671.62,"endTime":2672.79,"body":"and by that time,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2672.79,"endTime":2674.89,"body":"maybe more people will be listening to me,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2674.89,"endTime":2676.66,"body":"and the situation will be changing,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2676.66,"endTime":2678.07,"body":"and we'll be getting more mileage"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2678.07,"endTime":2681.25,"body":"out of this approach to"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2678.07,"endTime":2681.25,"body":"solving climate change."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2681.25,"endTime":2682.36,"body":"But in the meantime,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2682.36,"endTime":2684.46,"body":"I hope I've given you"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2682.36,"endTime":2684.46,"body":"enough to think about today"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2684.46,"endTime":2685.99,"body":"that you'll go out and spread the word,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2685.99,"endTime":2689.38,"body":"and start to think more open-mindedly"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2689.38,"endTime":2692.02,"body":"about how we solve the climate problem."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2692.02,"endTime":2693.235,"body":"Thank you."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2693.235,"endTime":2695.68,"body":"(audience applauds)"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2695.68,"endTime":2700.68,"body":"- Do you indeed worry that"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2695.68,"endTime":2700.68,"body":"your concept of net zero"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2701.2,"endTime":2704.593,"body":"is actually a dangerous"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2701.2,"endTime":2704.593,"body":"concept in the wrong hands?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2707.68,"endTime":2710.89,"body":"- Well, I can imagine"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2707.68,"endTime":2710.89,"body":"who the wrong hands are"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2710.89,"endTime":2713.83,"body":"that, John?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2710.89,"endTime":2713.83,"body":"- John."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2713.83,"endTime":2716.02,"body":"- John is thinking about,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2716.02,"endTime":2717.907,"body":"and it is fair enough."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2717.907,"endTime":2719.95,"body":"The fossil fuel industry"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2719.95,"endTime":2722.26,"body":"hasn't exactly covered itself with glory"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2722.26,"endTime":2723.85,"body":"over the past 30 years"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2723.85,"endTime":2725.56,"body":"on this issue,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2725.56,"endTime":2729.8,"body":"and expecting them to solve the problem"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2730.69,"endTime":2733.45,"body":"does sound like, for many"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2730.69,"endTime":2733.45,"body":"people, counterintuitive,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2733.45,"endTime":2735.25,"body":"and understandably so."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2735.25,"endTime":2737.44,"body":"I'm absolutely not suggesting"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2737.44,"endTime":2740.803,"body":"that we trust the fossil fuel"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2737.44,"endTime":2740.803,"body":"industry to solve the problem,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2742.96,"endTime":2744.37,"body":"back to old Cold War adage,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2744.37,"endTime":2745.69,"body":"trust but verify,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2745.69,"endTime":2750.69,"body":"we need a strong government,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2745.69,"endTime":2750.69,"body":"strong regulation"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2750.82,"endTime":2754.12,"body":"to make sure rules are"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2750.82,"endTime":2754.12,"body":"applied and rules are followed"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2754.12,"endTime":2756.713,"body":"if we're actually going to implement this."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2756.713,"endTime":2760.72,"body":"The danger, of course, is,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2760.72,"endTime":2764.32,"body":"if the industry uses its lobbying power"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2764.32,"endTime":2768.4,"body":"to persuade the government"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2764.32,"endTime":2768.4,"body":"to duck and weave,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2768.4,"endTime":2769.9,"body":"and get around it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2769.9,"endTime":2771.97,"body":"then that is indeed dangerous,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2771.97,"endTime":2773.89,"body":"but the alternative"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2773.89,"endTime":2776.86,"body":"to insisting the industry"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2773.89,"endTime":2776.86,"body":"dispose of carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2776.86,"endTime":2778.96,"body":"by putting it back underground"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2778.96,"endTime":2781.63,"body":"is dumping carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2778.96,"endTime":2781.63,"body":"in the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2781.63,"endTime":2782.71,"body":"and that, I'm confident,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2782.71,"endTime":2785.26,"body":"is more dangerous than"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2782.71,"endTime":2785.26,"body":"putting it underground,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2785.26,"endTime":2787.813,"body":"so it's a balance of risk,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2788.92,"endTime":2790.54,"body":"and the way we're going at the moment,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2790.54,"endTime":2792.363,"body":"it's all just going in the atmosphere."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2793.39,"endTime":2795.13,"body":"- [Mark] Thank you very much, Mark Falcon,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2795.13,"endTime":2797.05,"body":"thank you for a fantastic lecture."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2797.05,"endTime":2800.623,"body":"I'm both a physicist and an economist."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2803.5,"endTime":2805.06,"body":"- What a conflict."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2805.06,"endTime":2806.383,"body":"- [Mark] Well, I'd say no."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2807.28,"endTime":2810.877,"body":"What economists advocate"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2807.28,"endTime":2810.877,"body":"is not just a carbon price,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2810.877,"endTime":2812.863,"body":"but a carbon tax,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2814.96,"endTime":2816.88,"body":"on the polluter pays principle,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2816.88,"endTime":2819.91,"body":"that those who cause carbon emissions,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2819.91,"endTime":2821.26,"body":"in whatever form,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2821.26,"endTime":2823.3,"body":"pay that tax,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2823.3,"endTime":2826.15,"body":"and those who sequester"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2823.3,"endTime":2826.15,"body":"it receive that tax"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2826.15,"endTime":2827.62,"body":"as a negative tax,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2827.62,"endTime":2830.27,"body":"so surely, isn't that exactly"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2827.62,"endTime":2830.27,"body":"what you're advocating?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2833.02,"endTime":2834.49,"body":"- With a twist,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2834.49,"endTime":2837.1,"body":"in that I would advocate"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2834.49,"endTime":2837.1,"body":"doing it through regulation"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2837.1,"endTime":2838.48,"body":"rather than a tax,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2838.48,"endTime":2840.49,"body":"because I worry that,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2840.49,"endTime":2843.13,"body":"imagine if the present government"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2843.13,"endTime":2847.15,"body":"had a multi-billion pound a year income"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2847.15,"endTime":2848.65,"body":"from fossil fuel taxes"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2848.65,"endTime":2849.88,"body":"that it was meant to be spending"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2849.88,"endTime":2852.31,"body":"on carbon dioxide disposal,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2852.31,"endTime":2853.3,"body":"imagine, briefly,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2853.3,"endTime":2855.46,"body":"what they would probably"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2853.3,"endTime":2855.46,"body":"do with it instead,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2855.46,"endTime":2858.67,"body":"bearing in mind the impact"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2855.46,"endTime":2858.67,"body":"of carbon dioxide disposal"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2858.67,"endTime":2860.97,"body":"would not be visible"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2858.67,"endTime":2860.97,"body":"before the next election,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2861.97,"endTime":2864.19,"body":"that's why I'm terrified of the idea"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2864.19,"endTime":2866.2,"body":"of the government doing this,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2866.2,"endTime":2868.78,"body":"so I firmly believe the way to do this"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2868.78,"endTime":2872.98,"body":"is by requiring the industry"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2868.78,"endTime":2872.98,"body":"to do it through regulation,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2872.98,"endTime":2875.53,"body":"not through the mechanism of taxing them"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2875.53,"endTime":2878.44,"body":"and then spending the money"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2875.53,"endTime":2878.44,"body":"on getting rid of CO2,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2878.44,"endTime":2881.65,"body":"so it's a political argument."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2881.65,"endTime":2882.91,"body":"I know, economically,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2882.91,"endTime":2884.71,"body":"it's exactly the same thing,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2884.71,"endTime":2888.34,"body":"but once politicians get"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2884.71,"endTime":2888.34,"body":"their grubby paws on money,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2888.34,"endTime":2889.94,"body":"heaven knows what happens to it."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2892.03,"endTime":2894.163,"body":"- You're such a cynic, Myles."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2895.931,"endTime":2897.677,"body":"- Well, we are in the world we're in."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2897.677,"endTime":2902.02,"body":"- I'm going to take another"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2897.677,"endTime":2902.02,"body":"question from our online audience."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2902.02,"endTime":2904.54,"body":"Again, you did touch"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2902.02,"endTime":2904.54,"body":"on this in the lecture,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2904.54,"endTime":2907.637,"body":"but I think it's worth"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2904.54,"endTime":2907.637,"body":"pursuing a bit more:"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2907.637,"endTime":2908.47,"body":"\"What do you think"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2908.47,"endTime":2910.937,"body":"\"about the government's"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2908.47,"endTime":2910.937,"body":"announcement last week"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2910.937,"endTime":2912.767,"body":"\"that they're offering new licenses"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2912.767,"endTime":2915.94,"body":"\"for oil and gas exploration"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2912.767,"endTime":2915.94,"body":"in the North Sea?\""},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2915.94,"endTime":2918.13,"body":"- It would have been a golden opportunity"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2918.13,"endTime":2920.59,"body":"to make those licenses conditional"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2920.59,"endTime":2923.8,"body":"on getting rid of some of the CO2"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2923.8,"endTime":2924.79,"body":"that will be generated"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2924.79,"endTime":2927.4,"body":"by that additional oil and gas,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2927.4,"endTime":2929.743,"body":"but that was asking too much,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2931.33,"endTime":2934.18,"body":"but why not?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2934.18,"endTime":2937.09,"body":"A 10% storage requirement by 2030"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2937.09,"endTime":2940.27,"body":"would add 5p to the cost"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2937.09,"endTime":2940.27,"body":"of a liter of petrol,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2940.27,"endTime":2942.79,"body":"it would be invisible"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2942.79,"endTime":2944.35,"body":"in the fluctuations in prices"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2944.35,"endTime":2946.21,"body":"that will happen between now than then,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2946.21,"endTime":2949.273,"body":"and yet no politician will"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2946.21,"endTime":2949.273,"body":"touch this with a barge pole,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2950.14,"endTime":2951.943,"body":"I don't understand why not,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2952.87,"endTime":2954.79,"body":"because it's a way of"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2952.87,"endTime":2954.79,"body":"solving climate change"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2954.79,"endTime":2955.78,"body":"that doesn't involve them"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2955.78,"endTime":2957.79,"body":"setting up lots of complicated incentives"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2957.79,"endTime":2960.85,"body":"and interfering with people's lives."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2960.85,"endTime":2963.16,"body":"- [Questioner] I wanted"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2960.85,"endTime":2963.16,"body":"to know if your position"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2963.16,"endTime":2966.73,"body":"is that governments can't"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2963.16,"endTime":2966.73,"body":"be trusted to do this,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2966.73,"endTime":2968.65,"body":"but we have to be alive to the danger"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2968.65,"endTime":2972.46,"body":"of the fossil fuels'"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2968.65,"endTime":2972.46,"body":"lobbying for their interests,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2972.46,"endTime":2973.66,"body":"how do you propose,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2973.66,"endTime":2975.76,"body":"or what tools do you think"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2973.66,"endTime":2975.76,"body":"are the most powerful"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2975.76,"endTime":2977.47,"body":"for getting us to that regulation"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2977.47,"endTime":2978.943,"body":"that you're advocating for?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2980.092,"endTime":2981.01,"body":"- Well in the end,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2981.01,"endTime":2983.241,"body":"regulation requires government."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2983.241,"endTime":2985.87,"body":"I'm not anti-government"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2983.241,"endTime":2985.87,"body":"by any manner of means,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2985.87,"endTime":2986.703,"body":"we need government,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2986.703,"endTime":2988.873,"body":"we need good government, if only,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2991.21,"endTime":2992.86,"body":"and the fossil fuel industry"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2992.86,"endTime":2995.47,"body":"is already pretty tightly regulated,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2995.47,"endTime":2997.42,"body":"it's one of the most regulated"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2995.47,"endTime":2997.42,"body":"industries in the world,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2997.42,"endTime":2999.073,"body":"everybody knows what it's doing,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2999.91,"endTime":3003.72,"body":"so it would actually be"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":2999.91,"endTime":3003.72,"body":"relatively straightforward"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3003.72,"endTime":3006.333,"body":"to simply require the industry to do this."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3007.89,"endTime":3012.89,"body":"After the 1.5 Degrees"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3007.89,"endTime":3012.89,"body":"Report came out in 2018,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3012.93,"endTime":3015.42,"body":"we were doing lots of"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3012.93,"endTime":3015.42,"body":"talks to various people,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3015.42,"endTime":3016.47,"body":"and I gave a talk"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3016.47,"endTime":3021.47,"body":"to an annual get-together"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3016.47,"endTime":3021.47,"body":"of young engineers"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3022.08,"endTime":3024.963,"body":"from one of the big oil and gas companies,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3026.73,"endTime":3028.23,"body":"I was talking about 1.5 degrees,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3028.23,"endTime":3031.2,"body":"and somebody asked me,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3028.23,"endTime":3031.2,"body":"at the end of the talk,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3031.2,"endTime":3032.22,"body":"do you think there's any chance"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3032.22,"endTime":3035.547,"body":"of us actually meeting 1.5 degrees,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3035.547,"endTime":3037.14,"body":"and I just turned the"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3035.547,"endTime":3037.14,"body":"question around and said,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3037.14,"endTime":3040.2,"body":"well, if you had to decarbonize"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3037.14,"endTime":3040.2,"body":"your product by 2050,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3040.2,"endTime":3041.577,"body":"if you had to get rid of one ton of CO2"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3041.577,"endTime":3045.03,"body":"for every ton generated by"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3041.577,"endTime":3045.03,"body":"the oil and gas you sold,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3045.03,"endTime":3047.25,"body":"would you be able to do it?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3047.25,"endTime":3048.18,"body":"And they just said,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3048.18,"endTime":3049.507,"body":"would the same rules apply to everybody,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3049.507,"endTime":3051.27,"body":"and I said yeah, okay, suppose they did,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3051.27,"endTime":3053.13,"body":"and then, of course we would."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3053.13,"endTime":3057.36,"body":"So the industry is very used"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3053.13,"endTime":3057.36,"body":"to dealing with regulations,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3057.36,"endTime":3059.52,"body":"to complying with regulations,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3059.52,"endTime":3061.83,"body":"but they have to know those"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3059.52,"endTime":3061.83,"body":"regulations are coming,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3061.83,"endTime":3063.63,"body":"and once those regulations are in place,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3063.63,"endTime":3065.43,"body":"they need to know they're"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3063.63,"endTime":3065.43,"body":"going to stay there"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3065.43,"endTime":3067.32,"body":"so that they can invest against them."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3067.32,"endTime":3071.27,"body":"So who do I trust here?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3071.27,"endTime":3073.893,"body":"I don't think we can"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3071.27,"endTime":3073.893,"body":"afford to trust anybody,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3074.73,"endTime":3077.19,"body":"but at least this is a way forward"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3077.19,"endTime":3081.06,"body":"where the government doesn't"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3077.19,"endTime":3081.06,"body":"have to do very much,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3081.06,"endTime":3083.16,"body":"it just has to introduce a rule,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3083.16,"endTime":3085.89,"body":"and monitor to make sure"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3083.16,"endTime":3085.89,"body":"that rule is complied with,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3085.89,"endTime":3090.72,"body":"and then the industry is more than capable"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3090.72,"endTime":3092.49,"body":"of complying with the rule."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3092.49,"endTime":3094.77,"body":"So I think,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3094.77,"endTime":3097.68,"body":"of the various climate"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3094.77,"endTime":3097.68,"body":"futures I can imagine,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3097.68,"endTime":3098.67,"body":"it seems to be one of the ones"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3098.67,"endTime":3100.863,"body":"that involves trusting people least."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3104.22,"endTime":3105.99,"body":"- I'm going to ask the question"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3105.99,"endTime":3109.11,"body":"from a member of the online audience,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3109.11,"endTime":3113.077,"body":"largely because Nadine kicked"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3109.11,"endTime":3113.077,"body":"off her question by saying,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3113.077,"endTime":3115.74,"body":"\"Thank you so much for"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3113.077,"endTime":3115.74,"body":"the brilliant lecture,\""},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3115.74,"endTime":3117.564,"body":"it's always a winning start, I think."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3117.564,"endTime":3118.946,"body":"- But?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3118.946,"endTime":3121.32,"body":"- No, there isn't a but!"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3121.32,"endTime":3124.297,"body":"She asks, \"Do you have concerns"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3124.297,"endTime":3127.777,"body":"\"that there may be some"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3124.297,"endTime":3127.777,"body":"hidden major surprises"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3127.777,"endTime":3129.577,"body":"\"in the global carbon cycle"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3129.577,"endTime":3132.007,"body":"\"that we don't yet understand,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3132.007,"endTime":3135.457,"body":"\"unknowns in the bio-geochemistry?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3135.457,"endTime":3138.48,"body":"\"How well do we know the carbon cycle?\""},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3138.48,"endTime":3141.03,"body":"- Nadine, please come to my"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3138.48,"endTime":3141.03,"body":"lecture on the carbon cycle,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3141.03,"endTime":3145.23,"body":"which will be the fourth"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3141.03,"endTime":3145.23,"body":"lecture of this series,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3145.23,"endTime":3149.37,"body":"and yes, there's a lot"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3145.23,"endTime":3149.37,"body":"we need to worry about"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3149.37,"endTime":3151.02,"body":"in the way the climate's evolving"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3151.02,"endTime":3152.823,"body":"and will evolve in the future."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3154.68,"endTime":3156.39,"body":"This is, in my view,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3156.39,"endTime":3157.59,"body":"all the more reason"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3157.59,"endTime":3159.81,"body":"why we need to build the capacity"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3159.81,"endTime":3164.43,"body":"to get rid of carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3159.81,"endTime":3164.43,"body":"on an industrial scale,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3164.43,"endTime":3168.03,"body":"because unless we have that capacity,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3168.03,"endTime":3169.683,"body":"we can't turn the ship around."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3171.18,"endTime":3172.32,"body":"We may well discover,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3172.32,"endTime":3173.88,"body":"in the second half of this century,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3173.88,"endTime":3178.02,"body":"that we actually need to draw"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3173.88,"endTime":3178.02,"body":"carbon dioxide, actively,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3178.02,"endTime":3179.13,"body":"back out of the atmosphere,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3179.13,"endTime":3182.19,"body":"lots of scenarios involve us doing this,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3182.19,"endTime":3183.18,"body":"but at the moment,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3183.18,"endTime":3184.74,"body":"the plan seems to be"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3184.74,"endTime":3186.6,"body":"we'll just carry on burning fossil fuels"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3186.6,"endTime":3188.25,"body":"until the mid-century,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3188.25,"endTime":3191.34,"body":"paying fossil fuel companies"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3188.25,"endTime":3191.34,"body":"for their products,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3191.34,"endTime":3192.45,"body":"and burning them,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3192.45,"endTime":3195.69,"body":"and then we'll use taxpayers'"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3192.45,"endTime":3195.69,"body":"money, or something,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3195.69,"endTime":3196.95,"body":"I don't know whose money,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3196.95,"endTime":3199.95,"body":"to pay for vast amounts"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3196.95,"endTime":3199.95,"body":"of carbon dioxide removal."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3199.95,"endTime":3204.6,"body":"So you're paying private"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3199.95,"endTime":3204.6,"body":"industry to create the problem"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3204.6,"endTime":3206.79,"body":"and then you're using"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3204.6,"endTime":3206.79,"body":"taxpayers' money to clean it up."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3206.79,"endTime":3208.35,"body":"I mean, this is something"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3206.79,"endTime":3208.35,"body":"we've done in the past,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3208.35,"endTime":3210.06,"body":"and we do tend to do quite a lot,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3210.06,"endTime":3211.02,"body":"but if you can avoid it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3211.02,"endTime":3212.07,"body":"it's better to avoid it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3212.07,"endTime":3213.18,"body":"which is why I would argue"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3213.18,"endTime":3216.69,"body":"that getting the industry today involved"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3216.69,"endTime":3218.58,"body":"in developing the solution"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3218.58,"endTime":3219.83,"body":"is the right way forward."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3221.1,"endTime":3222.75,"body":"- [Questioner] This is"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3221.1,"endTime":3222.75,"body":"a very general question:"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3222.75,"endTime":3225.42,"body":"how optimistic are you"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3225.42,"endTime":3228.663,"body":"that net zero will be achieved by 2050?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3231.39,"endTime":3234.36,"body":"- I often think back to"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3231.39,"endTime":3234.36,"body":"that meeting with Aart,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3234.36,"endTime":3237.54,"body":"and Aart could do it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3237.54,"endTime":3239.97,"body":"he was doing amazing things every day,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3239.97,"endTime":3241.95,"body":"it was part of his job,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3241.95,"endTime":3245.76,"body":"but we're not even asking"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3241.95,"endTime":3245.76,"body":"the likes of Aart to do it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3245.76,"endTime":3248.46,"body":"and so I vacillate between,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3248.46,"endTime":3249.75,"body":"and it's really frustrating,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3249.75,"endTime":3251.97,"body":"I know this is possible."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3251.97,"endTime":3255.09,"body":"If we actually enlisted the power"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3255.09,"endTime":3256.44,"body":"of the fossil fuel industry,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3256.44,"endTime":3258.15,"body":"the ingenuity of the fossil fuel industry,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3258.15,"endTime":3259.95,"body":"the resources, the capital, the cashflow,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3259.95,"endTime":3261.39,"body":"all the stuff they've got"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3261.39,"endTime":3263.04,"body":"to solve the problem,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3263.04,"endTime":3265.08,"body":"we'd have the problem solved."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3265.08,"endTime":3268.29,"body":"People love to talk about"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3265.08,"endTime":3268.29,"body":"the takeoff of wind and solar"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3268.29,"endTime":3269.64,"body":"in the US,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3269.64,"endTime":3272.22,"body":"the exponential growth of"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3269.64,"endTime":3272.22,"body":"wind and solar in the US"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3272.22,"endTime":3273.84,"body":"in the past decade."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3273.84,"endTime":3275.913,"body":"If you plot on the same axes,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3276.84,"endTime":3279.21,"body":"in terms of energy delivered,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3279.21,"endTime":3282.21,"body":"the takeoff of unconventional shale gas,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3282.21,"endTime":3283.77,"body":"it's like that,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3283.77,"endTime":3285.3,"body":"it's a super-exponential growth"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3285.3,"endTime":3286.98,"body":"to a much bigger target,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3286.98,"endTime":3288.15,"body":"and what were they doing?"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3288.15,"endTime":3290.8,"body":"They were injecting fluids"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3288.15,"endTime":3290.8,"body":"under pressure into rocks,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3291.84,"endTime":3293.673,"body":"they know exactly how to do this,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3294.51,"endTime":3296.85,"body":"and they could do it like that"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3296.85,"endTime":3298.47,"body":"if they were required to do so."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3298.47,"endTime":3300.24,"body":"If it was a licensing condition"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3300.24,"endTime":3303.21,"body":"of continuing to dig up"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3300.24,"endTime":3303.21,"body":"fossil fuels and sell them,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3303.21,"endTime":3305.13,"body":"that they had to get rid of CO2,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3305.13,"endTime":3307.71,"body":"they would just get on with doing it."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3307.71,"endTime":3310.44,"body":"Of course fossil fuels would"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3307.71,"endTime":3310.44,"body":"then become more expensive,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3310.44,"endTime":3312.42,"body":"we won't use nearly as much of them,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3312.42,"endTime":3314.403,"body":"probably at least 3/4 less,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3315.36,"endTime":3317.73,"body":"but the remaining fossil fuels we use"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3317.73,"endTime":3319.33,"body":"won't be causing global warming."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3321.42,"endTime":3323.16,"body":"So we could do it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3323.16,"endTime":3325.83,"body":"but what is frustrating is"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3325.83,"endTime":3328.65,"body":"you won't find this approach"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3325.83,"endTime":3328.65,"body":"to addressing the problem"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3328.65,"endTime":3330.723,"body":"being discussed anywhere,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3332.826,"endTime":3336.39,"body":"and so that's what makes"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3332.826,"endTime":3336.39,"body":"me less optimistic,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3336.39,"endTime":3338.82,"body":"unless we can change the mindset"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3338.82,"endTime":3340.98,"body":"of people thinking about climate policy,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3340.98,"endTime":3342.84,"body":"come back to where I was at the beginning,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3342.84,"endTime":3344.82,"body":"thinking about asking"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3342.84,"endTime":3344.82,"body":"a different question,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3344.82,"endTime":3349.02,"body":"not can we produce carbon"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3344.82,"endTime":3349.02,"body":"dioxide a bit slower,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3349.02,"endTime":3352.26,"body":"but how do we get rid of"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3349.02,"endTime":3352.26,"body":"the excess carbon dioxide"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3352.26,"endTime":3353.76,"body":"that we're going to produce,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3353.76,"endTime":3356.64,"body":"until we get minds"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3353.76,"endTime":3356.64,"body":"focused on that question,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3356.64,"endTime":3358.713,"body":"we're not going to stop climate change."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3361.89,"endTime":3363.72,"body":"- And that's a very good cue"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3363.72,"endTime":3366.3,"body":"for me to thank the"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3363.72,"endTime":3366.3,"body":"Frank Jackson Foundation"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3366.3,"endTime":3367.71,"body":"for all your support"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3367.71,"endTime":3369.93,"body":"for this wonderful professorship,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3369.93,"endTime":3372.12,"body":"and our wonderful new professor."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3372.12,"endTime":3375.0,"body":"I'm flooded with questions now"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3375.0,"endTime":3378.15,"body":"from the online audience"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3375.0,"endTime":3378.15,"body":"and the in-person audience,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3378.15,"endTime":3380.85,"body":"but I think we do have to stop there,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3380.85,"endTime":3383.55,"body":"but the answer is to come"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3380.85,"endTime":3383.55,"body":"to the next lectures,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3383.55,"endTime":3386.43,"body":"and I'm sure Myles will"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3383.55,"endTime":3386.43,"body":"answer the questions"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3386.43,"endTime":3389.34,"body":"that you're burning to ask"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3389.34,"endTime":3390.363,"body":"at that point."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3391.53,"endTime":3393.24,"body":"Thank you so much,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3393.24,"endTime":3395.16,"body":"that was a wonderful lecture,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3395.16,"endTime":3396.6,"body":"really appreciate it,"},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3396.6,"endTime":3398.82,"body":"and indeed look forward to the next ones."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3398.82,"endTime":3400.883,"body":"- Thank you."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3398.82,"endTime":3400.883,"body":"- Thank you."},{"speaker":"To sum up","startTime":3400.883,"endTime":3403.883,"body":"(audience applauds)"}]}